WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Power Conference, China PMIs 0:00:02.759 --> 0:00:07.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:12.680 This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:15.080 the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:17.720 anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:21.480 what this week's September jobs report could tell the Federal Reserve. 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:23.319 I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:26.279 I'm Caline Hecker here in London, where we're shining a 0:00:26.320 --> 0:00:30.200 spotlight on the women's shaping our global economic future. 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:33.720 I'm dek Prisner looking at whether China's pro growth pivot 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:34.760 is succeeding. 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:40.200 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:43.920 eleven three h New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:44.440 --> 0:00:49.440 Bloomberg ninety two nine Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Syria 0:00:49.720 --> 0:00:53.200 XM one T one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:55.480 dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:02.440 Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby, and we begin 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:05.680 today's program with the September jobs report out this Friday. 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:09.520 What might another anemic report mean just weeks ahead of 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:13.440 another Federal Reserve rate decision? And for more, we welcome 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:17.959 Stuart paul Us, Economists with Bloomberg Economics. Stuart, thank you 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:19.800 so much for being here. Now let's start with some 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.440 good news, and there was good news. Q two economic 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:25.040 growth a lot better than forecasts three point eight percent, 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:29.040 consumer spending strong in August, even if inflation was still 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:31.800 a little sticky, and Wall Street up until this past week, 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.160 had been hitting one all time high after another. All 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:37.840 good news. But it's not all good news, is it. 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:39.280 There's a lot of worries out there. 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:39.880 Well. 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:42.680 The thing that everybody seems to be anchoring on with 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:46.759 the Q two GDP data was this major upward revision 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:51.680 to headline GDP growth and to household spending, and household 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:54.360 spending ended up growing at an annualized rate of about 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:57.680 two and a half percent in the second quarter. As 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:01.640 you mentioned when we finally got the August personal consumption 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:05.760 expenditures report. It even looks like household spending continued growing 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:08.600 into the third quarter. So that's all good news there. 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.560 What I'm thinking most about, though, from the last week, 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:15.720 is that corporate profits for the second quarter were revised 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:20.800 down pretty significantly. Corporate profits only grew about seven billion 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:24.200 dollars in the second quarter. That's down from an initial 0:02:24.280 --> 0:02:28.960 estimate of nearly seventy billion dollars, and if that's the case, 0:02:29.000 --> 0:02:31.200 that's a big revision. If that's the case, you would 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:35.079 have to think that expansion, investment and hiring plans are 0:02:35.120 --> 0:02:37.800 going to start to simmer. And when we look at 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:42.560 let's say small business surveys, capital expenditure plans have never 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:46.760 been this low outside of a recession. Capex plans are low, 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:51.640 investment and expansion plans are low. Hiring plans are also low. 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:55.280 So the thing that I'm thinking most about in the 0:02:55.320 --> 0:03:00.960 outlook is the currently tenuous labor market balance between supply 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:03.519 and demand for labor and what that means for the 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:06.840 pace of hiring going forward. Now, when we think about 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.480 the September jobs report coming out this coming Friday, we 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.919 think there is going to be about fifty five thousand 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:17.520 jobs added during the month. But one thing that we 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.280 need to continue keeping in mind is that a lot 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:23.280 of workers are going to be rolling off government payrolls. 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:25.400 These are the folks who took the buy out earlier 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:27.800 in the year because of DOGE cuts. And when that's 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.880 the case, the pace of hiring could resume slowing to 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.280 the pace that we saw earlier this summer. This is 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:37.560 a very tenuous balance between labor supply and labor demand, 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.280 which makes us very cautious about the growth and spending 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:43.480 outlook as we head into year end. 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:46.560 And just those federal workers, you're talking thousands or tens 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:50.560 of thousands, not just in Washington and Baltimore, but in 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:55.480 National Park services across the US, and adjuncts of the 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:57.160 Social Security Administration all over. 0:03:57.360 --> 0:03:59.680 That's right. This is not the sort of thing that's regionally. 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.320 I this is the sort of thing that affects workers 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:05.080 around the country. And so I think that when we 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.320 think about consumer spending, this is not something that just 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:12.320 affects businesses locally in Washington. This is something that materially 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:14.360 affects or outlook for spending growth. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.000 Now, let's talk more about the jobs, not just those 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:21.120 federal jobs, because we know about those, but we've seen manufacturing, 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:25.240 despite the Trump administrations, you know, promoting and touting of 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:30.080 more manufacturing jobs coming back here, Manufacturing, construction, energy, especially 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:33.880 in oil, all seeing declines. And that's not good. 0:04:34.400 --> 0:04:38.440 It's not It's basically every month since April, the manufacturing 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:42.919 industry has been shedding jobs. And look, Tom, that's the 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:48.160 normal state of affairs in an economy that's increasingly services oriented. 0:04:48.600 --> 0:04:51.800 That's not the state of affairs that policymakers want when 0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:56.040 they are pursuing industrial policy and protectionism. So there is 0:04:56.080 --> 0:04:59.400 a part of me that thinks, look, the effect of towers, 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:02.640 the effect of industrial policy. We're just not quite feeling 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.360 it yet. We're not seeing any sort of boost to 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:09.039 manufacturing and construction yet. We should wait to see the 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:12.680 effects of the policies that the administration is rolling out. 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:16.200 But right now, yes, the manufacturing industry is shedding jobs. 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:20.240 Thinking back to the August industrial production report, and this 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:24.839 is a win for the administration. There is accelerating auto production, 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:30.480 there's accelerating steel production, there's accelerating pharmaceutical production, and accelerating 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:34.160 textile production. Those are all winds, but those are very recent. 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:38.600 It's too early to say that there's been material progress 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:44.320 shown in domestic production as a consequence of tariffs. Instead, 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:49.920 it looks like the growth negative consequences of uncertainty are 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:54.720 weighing on aggregate economic activity and aggregate hiring. Until we 0:05:54.760 --> 0:06:00.560 see those isolated benefits booying domestic production, it's really it's 0:06:00.600 --> 0:06:03.080 really just a growth negative story right now, and. 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:06.080 We won't know if the latest tariffs that the President 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:08.919 announced on pharmaceutic was one hundred percent, twenty five percent 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:13.400 on heavy duty trucks, thirty percent on sofas and upholstered furniture. 0:06:13.920 --> 0:06:15.760 It's just too soon to tell. That could be months 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:19.120 down the road before we see any impact of that domestically, right. 0:06:19.120 --> 0:06:22.719 That's right. So again August, from an industrial production perspective, 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:25.760 it looks like those favorite industries were doing relatively well. 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:27.800 But I'm not going to read too much into one 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.080 month's data. It's going to take some time to see 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:34.800 the full effects of those specific those industry specific tariffs. 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.400 Now, this past week, FED Chairman Jerome Powell, he said 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:42.360 there are serious risks to the economy involving inflation, which 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.440 we know is well above the target two point nine percent, 0:06:45.440 --> 0:06:48.080 but it hasn't gotten any worse, but also the weakening 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:51.560 labor market. What does he see? Did he see all 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:54.200 these things? Is he seeing months out that I'm not seeing? 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.039 Maybe even you're not seeing that. We are going to 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.760 see things continue to digress in the labor market. 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:03.560 Which is really difficult right now, is that labor supply 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:07.520 and labor demand have this really treacherous balancing acts right now, 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:11.920 where growth in labor supply is very slow and labor 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:15.320 demand is waning. If we rewind the clock, let's say 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:18.040 a year ago, there were about ten percent more job 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:22.440 openings than there were unemployed or available workers. Now there 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:26.720 are just slightly fewer job openings than there are available workers. 0:07:27.080 --> 0:07:30.200 We expect looking ahead to next week when we get 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:34.120 the job openings and labor turnover survey data, we expect 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:36.200 the number of job openings to fall further. It's about 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.120 seven point one five million, So again, now we're going 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:42.800 to have almost five percent fewer job openings. 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.840 The September Jobs report out this Friday, eight thirty am 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:49.240 Wall Street Time. Our thanks to Stuart Paul, us economists 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:52.240 with Bloomberg Economics. Well, next, we turn to a big 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.080 change coming this week to the US auto industry, the 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:58.120 end of the seventy five hundred dollars federal tax credit 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:01.480 for EV buyers. What will for EV makers and for 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:05.480 EV prices? What about Detroit's Big Three who spent billions 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.720 preparing for an electric engine future? For more, and on 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.160 who wins and who loses? We're joined by Steve Man, 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:16.600 Bloomberg Intelligence, Global Autos and Industrials Research analysts. Well, Steve, 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:18.960 thank you so much for being here. Can you tell us, 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:20.880 can you just set it up what happens this week 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:24.040 with that Biden era tax credit and what that program? 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:26.200 What has it meant to the EV industry. 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:30.880 Yeah, the seventy five hundred dollars Biden tax credit is 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:34.440 set to expire at the end of September, and the 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:38.040 tax credit has been very helpful to the industry. It 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:43.000 helpful to the automakers, helpful to the consumers, and sales 0:08:43.080 --> 0:08:45.880 of EV's have been growing until you know, recent on 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:50.080 the last couple of years, and you know, when it falls, 0:08:50.600 --> 0:08:53.040 I think EV sales is going to fall off the cliff. 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:56.080 And a lot of automakers are actually preparing for that 0:08:57.320 --> 0:08:59.640 drop off after September thirtieth. 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.080 And how are they preparing for that drop off and 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:04.040 expected drop off in sales? 0:09:04.320 --> 0:09:07.520 You know a few examples. You know, GM have already 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:10.760 announced that you know, they're probably gonna stop EV production 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:14.360 for the month of December. Uh, and then they're also 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.360 rolling out they do have plans to roll out a 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:24.080 very popular subcompact compact EV called a Bolt, which sold 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:27.319 really well for them in the past. But instead of 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:30.760 you know, going full on production for for that new EV. 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:33.600 This is going to start with one shift and then 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:36.560 maybe ramp it up to two shifts in the new year, 0:09:36.640 --> 0:09:40.800 depending on demand. And then the couple others, the Japanese 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:46.079 automakers are actually discontinuing, Acuras discontinuing their one of their 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:50.480 evs as well as Nissan in the North American market. 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:52.480 And how about Ford, I mean, Ford made a big 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.760 splash with the F one fifty lightning the Mustang Mocky, 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:59.959 but have things uh you know, have things really dialed back? 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:00.520 Uh? 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:04.600 Yeah, I mean Ford, Ford continues to lose a lot 0:10:04.640 --> 0:10:08.240 of money on their EV business. They do sell the Mocky. 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:13.200 You know, electric pickup truck is not resonating with the 0:10:13.320 --> 0:10:18.040 US consumer at all. So but you know, they are 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:23.520 still planning to launch a more affordable pickup truck, but 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:27.000 that's not until twenty twenty seven. So they've delayed those 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.160 plants a number of times already. So now it's twenty 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:32.640 twenty seven, we'll have to go. We'll have to see 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.040 what the demand is like in twenty twenty six. You know, 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.720 wouldn't be surprised if they pushed that out even further. 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:41.559 And Stilantis they have, you know, earmarked a jeep that'll 0:10:41.559 --> 0:10:44.040 be all electric. Is that still in the pipeline or 0:10:44.080 --> 0:10:45.120 is that being pushed back? 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.680 It looks like it's going to be pushed back. Also, Ram, 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:53.080 which is their pickup truck division, they've they've stopped. They 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:57.760 basically not going to roll out that electric pickup truck 0:10:57.880 --> 0:10:59.360 that they was slated for next year. 0:10:59.480 --> 0:11:01.839 All right, So that's Detroit's big three. Let's talk about 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.960 the companies that only make EV's. The big one of 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:09.360 course on everyone's Tesla, but also Rivian, Lucid, we have Faraday, 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.800 There's a whole bunch of smaller ones. What will it 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:15.120 mean Let's just talk about Tesla, that's the one everybody knows. 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.839 Yeah, Look, I think I think the the seventy five 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.520 hundred dollars EV credit going away is actually a transition 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:25.439 period for the EV industry in a couple of ways. 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:30.600 One is definitely consolidation. We've we've talked about some of 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:35.600 the automaker's discontinuing sale of EV's in the North American market. 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:38.720 But what it means is, uh, you know, probably more 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.440 business for the likes of Tesla and Rivian. You know, 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:45.720 their their business is only EV's and uh SO choices 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:50.320 for consumers are are dwindling and the really the only 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:54.439 ones that consumer can look to to buy EV's or 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.480 or the likes of these peer plays. The other thing 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:01.760 with this EV credit going on way is a transition 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:08.199 period for the EV industry. Now the consumer cannot rely 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:13.360 or the automaker. The industry cannot rely on monetary incentives 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.480 to drive demand anymore. It really now needs to go 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.480 back to the basic. The industry needs to address a 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.679 lot of the concern that the consumers have with evs, 0:12:22.720 --> 0:12:27.000 which is high costs, high prices, as well as the 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:30.960 lack of charging infrastructure. We actually put out a deep 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:36.440 dive report recently looking at the EVE charging industry and 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:39.400 we actually think there's still continued to be a lot 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:43.640 of investment in that thirty billion to be exact, between 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:45.040 now and twenty thirty five. 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.520 Well, the federal tax credit for buyers of new end 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:51.200 used evs expiring this Tuesday. Our thanks to Steve Mann, 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:55.680 Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos and Industrials research analysts and coming 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.040 up on Bloomberg day Break weekend will shine a spotlight 0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:01.840 on the women shaping our global economic future. I'm Tom 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:16.520 Busby And this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break weekend, 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.840 our global look ahead at the top stories for investors 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.400 in the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:23.960 Up later in our program, we'll try to gauge the 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.079 health of the Chinese economy with the release of official 0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:32.280 PMI data. But first, Bloomberg's Women Money Power Conference returns 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.640 to London this week, bringing together some of the most 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.320 influential names in finance, business, and sport to discuss the 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:42.880 major issues facing the world, including AI and other new technologies. 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:45.360 For more, Let's go to London and bring in Bloomberg 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.640 day Break Europe anchor Caroline Hepgar Tom. 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:52.000 In the midst of a massive reallocation of capital and 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:56.800 tech driven changes to the global financial system, women are 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.640 controlling a greater share of wealth and making more of 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:04.480 the key financial decisions now. In the coming days, Bloomberg's 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:09.000 Women Money and Power Event will convene the most influential 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.400 voices from across the global finance industry for the second 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.720 year to debate and discuss the critical issues facing the 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:20.480 future of investing, real estate, consumer banking, and private markets, 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:25.680 as well as philanthropists, owners and CEOs, it's an issue 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:29.320 that is fast rising up the global agenda. In the UK, 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:33.080 this year, Bloomberg analysis found that the average woman working 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:36.640 in the UK financial sector earns about a fifth less 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:40.040 than their male colleagues, a reflection of how the gender 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:44.320 pay gap has stubbornly persisted even during a period when 0:14:44.400 --> 0:14:49.640 businesses have pledged to address workplace inequality through diversity, equity 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:54.040 and inclusion schemes. At the same time, women a rising 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.720 in terms of the world of wealth. A little more 0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:59.640 than a decade ago, think that they controlled less than 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:03.480 a third of total US assets. Now by twenty thirty, 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:07.960 that's expected to jump to thirty eight percent, reaching an 0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:13.440 estimated thirty four trillion dollars. That disparity is likely to 0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:18.440 feature heavily in discussions at the upcoming Bloomberg Women, Money 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:23.680 and Power Conference. At last year's gathering, participants anticipated a 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.600 bumper m and a year in twenty twenty five, optimistic 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.040 that deal making would pick up due to an anticipated 0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:36.520 loosening of regulations under President Trump's administration. While those hopes 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:40.680 have only partially materialized, there is perhaps more uncertainty in 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.760 the market now than was expected. Either way, women remain 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.680 at the forefront of change. Just this month, Citygroup CEO 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.720 Jane Fraser told Bloomberg her clients have been much more 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:57.400 active in cattle markets, investing, and deal making after getting 0:15:57.440 --> 0:16:02.480 greater clarity on taxes, tariffs, and deregulation. Here is Jane 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.280 Fraser speaking to Bloomberg's Jimana Bissetci. 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:08.120 You've got to look at the collective impact of the 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:12.080 tax policy, what's been happening with tariffs, and indeed the 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:15.760 increasing deregulation that we're seeing, and they work together as 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:19.000 a package, I think the most important piece for a 0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:24.920 corporate clarity. We hate uncertainty, We like clarity. And our 0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:28.200 client base now is really starting to act with more 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.800 confidence now that we've got clarity on those three fronts. 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:35.920 So active in the capital market, arena in financing, active 0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:39.760 in much more active in investing, less sitting on the sidelines. 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:42.360 And M and A has been very very active indeed, 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:47.360 as we talked about, and on the consumer side, pretty 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.600 robust spending through the summer, and we saw that really 0:16:50.600 --> 0:16:55.000 across all categories. Helped a bit by lower gas prices, 0:16:56.040 --> 0:17:01.360 but the consumers being fiscally responsible, being more mindful around 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:05.240 some spend, but still the spending levels were very pleasing. 0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:07.800 So the momentum was pretty strong across all lines of 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:09.720 your business in the second quarter. And of course, you know, 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:14.159 I don't want to precipitate upcoming earnings, but can that 0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:16.520 momentum continue into the end of the year, just in 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.040 terms of you know what you're seeing an advisory in 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.040 deal making and in trading because there was a very 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:23.600 strong quarter for trading as well. 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:28.520 It was exceptional for us on all fronts. I still 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:32.119 see very strong pipelines, I see high level of engagement 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.240 from clients. I see a sense of urgency as well. 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:39.520 Given the speed with which industry structures are changing and 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.480 there is still growth opportunity. I think growth will be 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:45.320 a notch lower. We're keeping an eye on the labor market. 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:49.359 It's a low churn market, so not everything is rosy, 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.400 but we don't see a recession on the horizon. 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:56.080 The city increasing in a global bank, obviously establishing here, 0:17:56.160 --> 0:17:59.240 your presence over here as well. But at the same time, 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.359 we talk about ultiple geopolitical shocks that we were speaking 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:06.000 about the latest Russian incursion into Poland's We talk about 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:09.840 geopolitical of here, we talk about tensions between US and China. 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:13.240 As a bank, how do you navigate all of those 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:17.000 potential geopolitical sensitivities and the barriers that are going up 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:17.680 around the world. 0:18:18.200 --> 0:18:21.800 We were in doing business in about one hundred and 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:25.200 sixty countries around the world. We have local banking license 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.960 people on the ground in almost one hundred and we've 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.720 been in many of these countries for a very very 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:34.080 long time. So this isn't classic suitcase bankers fly and 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.920 fly out, and there's a really deep knowledge of what's 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.879 going on and a lot of the kit services we 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.879 provide are what helped the economies and the companies do 0:18:44.000 --> 0:18:48.000 business every single day. So for us, there is a 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.840 mission to make sure that we are operating with resiliency 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:55.920 and with rigor to support our clients. And we tend 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:59.360 to move activity around the world as clients ebb and 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:03.840 flow in fring geographies. So the Middle East is probably 0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:06.479 on a rip for the next decade or so in 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:10.160 terms of how much investment and new industries new clients 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:14.680 coming in. Other areas will probably see some more diminishment 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:18.360 in so we just we flex where it is. Our 0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:22.560 people were globally minded. They move around the world as 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:26.160 to where opportunities are and it's a moment where City shines, 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.520 where there is volatility, the clients need us. 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:31.840 That was City Group's Jane Fraser there. She's one of 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:35.600 a host of senior women leading teams who are at 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.960 the forefront of the global economy this year, many of 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.040 whom will be in London for Bluemberg's Women Money and 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:46.160 Power Conference. Also taking part is Blueberg's Lizzie Burden. We've 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.439 been speaking about the key themes on the agenda, what 0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:52.600 she's most looking forward to at the event, who the 0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.880 big players are going to be in attendance. 0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:56.359 Sol I. 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.320 We've rustled up some of the most influential voices from 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:02.520 across global finance. We're going to hear from Julia Hoggett, 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.480 the CEO of the London Stock Exchange. I'll be sitting 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:07.480 down with her. We've got Emma Walmsley, the CEO of GSK, 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:11.240 the Bank of England's Catherine Mann, Maggie Murphy, managing director 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:15.160 of aston Villa Women's Football Club, and Victoria Bateman, who 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:18.360 you might know just wrote this book Economica, a Global 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:21.280 History of Women, Wealth and Power. It's almost as if 0:20:21.280 --> 0:20:23.159 she knew that we were going to have this event again, 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:25.840 but hosting these conversations, we're also going to have the 0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:28.840 best of our Bloomberg journalists. We've got Stephanie Flanders, head 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:31.960 of Economics and Government, Michelle Hussein, our new editor at 0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:35.840 large of Bloomberg Weekend, Ruth David Arlunda bureau chief. Danny 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:38.480 Berger is in from New York. Shamanamaset she's in from Dubai. 0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.040 So it's a global affair this one. And then in 0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:45.440 the audience we'll have hundreds of senior finance professionals who've 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:47.560 taken part in our New Voices program, which, if you 0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.959 haven't heard of, it is a Bloomberg initiative that funds 0:20:51.000 --> 0:20:54.800 all this intensive media training around the world to amplify 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:57.719 expert views. I'm really proud of that. And they'll be 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:00.360 in amongst all the C suite executives as well. 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:04.720 Yeah, so, then of all of these leading women, what 0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:07.280 do you think the topics for conversation are going to 0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:07.760 be all about? 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:09.960 Well, let me say this clearly. What this is not 0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:14.080 is a conference about women in leadership or gender focus issues. 0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.480 They're really important issues. But what this is is a 0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:21.119 global finance conference that just happens to have all female 0:21:21.200 --> 0:21:24.440 panelists and moderators. So we're going to tackle the critical 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:26.760 issues that are facing the finance industry at the moment, 0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:31.400 whether that's real estate, consumer banking, private markets, investing. Are 0:21:31.440 --> 0:21:35.639 also going to be hearing the future for philanthropists, owners 0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:36.560 and CEOs as well. 0:21:37.320 --> 0:21:41.879 And in terms of major developments since last year's conference. 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:43.680 There's a small matter of the man in the White House. 0:21:43.720 --> 0:21:46.239 Of course, he's changed all of everything that I've just 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.439 talked about. We are in the middle of a stock 0:21:48.480 --> 0:21:51.560 market rally. Views on whether that can continue, whether this 0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:54.000 is the new normal, whether it's a bubble, and look, 0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:57.000 we have the wars in Gaza and Ukraine rumbling on, 0:21:57.200 --> 0:21:59.520 while at the same time private markets are on a 0:21:59.560 --> 0:22:01.240 tare bringing together those themes. 0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:05.640 And when it comes to central banking around the world, 0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:08.560 there are more women than ever who are making global 0:22:08.560 --> 0:22:13.960 monetary policy decisions and some under pressure. What's the significance 0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:14.320 of that. 0:22:14.400 --> 0:22:15.680 Yeah, well, let me take you through some of those, 0:22:15.680 --> 0:22:19.480 because we've got Christine Lagarde often pointing out the underrepresentation 0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:23.439 of women in senior roles in economics, finance and central banks. 0:22:23.520 --> 0:22:25.919 In fact, her and Isabelle Schnabel at the ECB, as 0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:28.720 seen as real thought leaders on the Governing Council, and 0:22:28.960 --> 0:22:31.959 you especially watch what they say. Even if Schnarbile is 0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:35.720 a known hawk, she's especially respected as an influential voice 0:22:35.720 --> 0:22:37.920 on the Governing Council. Here at the Bank of England 0:22:37.920 --> 0:22:40.480 across the road we have Claire Lombardelli, a Deputy governor. 0:22:40.640 --> 0:22:43.960 Remember she dissented in that last but one vote when 0:22:43.960 --> 0:22:47.840 they had to vote again. She's particularly worried about food inflation. 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:50.639 And we're also, as I say, talking to Catherine Mann 0:22:50.840 --> 0:22:52.520 at this event, she's seen as a bit of a 0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:55.560 maverick on the monetary policy. She went from hawk to 0:22:55.720 --> 0:22:59.000 dove and then kind of back again. So we look 0:22:59.040 --> 0:23:01.800 forward to hearing what she has been thinking about the 0:23:01.880 --> 0:23:06.320 UK economy recently. She's definitely bold in her opinions and 0:23:06.359 --> 0:23:10.119 she's kind of at the end of the spectrum a 0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:13.480 thought leader again. Finally at the Fed, of course, we 0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:17.280 lost Adriana Cougler, we don't really know why, and Lisa 0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:20.840 Cook remains under threat from President Trump. So, as you say, Caroline, 0:23:20.880 --> 0:23:25.119 women on global monetary policy committees really significant in the 0:23:25.200 --> 0:23:28.399