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Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello there,

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Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. I

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Speaker 1: am the aforementioned title name of said podcast. I'm Chuck Todd.

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Speaker 1: We have let me give you a lay of the

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Speaker 1: land of the show. Today. I'm going to talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about the struggle that I think both parties

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Speaker 1: are going to have trying to figure out how to

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Speaker 1: message in twenty for campaign twenty twenty six. I will

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Speaker 1: get to that. Got some interesting first polling on the

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Speaker 1: incident in Minnesota and where the American public is on

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Speaker 1: the shooting of a civilian by an ICE agent, a

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Speaker 1: civilian protester. How do you message in this political environment,

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Speaker 1: because I think it's going to be quite difficult. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to get to that in a second. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: after the interview I've got. It is Wednesday, and every Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: I want to have a new top five list. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm playing the algorithmic game, so assume me. But it's

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Speaker 1: a little point of privilege. It's my podcast, it's my

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Speaker 1: top five lists. So yes, it will be about the

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Speaker 1: I mean Hurricanes, so deal with it. But even if

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Speaker 1: you're not a fan of the Hurricanes, if you're a

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Speaker 1: fan of college football, if you're a fan of sports history,

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Speaker 1: I think you'll like my top five list. And then

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Speaker 1: we'll do some Q and I always a popular segment.

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Speaker 1: So but let me dive into this issue of what

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Speaker 1: I think is going to be an extraordinarily challenging message

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Speaker 1: because you know, when it comes to campaign twenty twenty six,

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Speaker 1: we already know the three endings. Okay, we just don't

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Speaker 1: know which ending it's going to be, and we don't

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Speaker 1: know how we're going to get there. But the time

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Speaker 1: the votes are counted next November, the verdict is going

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Speaker 1: to be instant, even if we're not quite sure of

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Speaker 1: the meaning right away. Right, If Democrats win both the

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Speaker 1: House and the Senate, it's going to be framed as

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Speaker 1: a full rebuke of Donald Trump. Hartstop. If Democrats only

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Speaker 1: win the House, it's going to be called a partial rebuke,

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Speaker 1: and everyone will obsess over the size of the majority. Right,

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Speaker 1: if it's twenty to thirty seats, you know, they'll be

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Speaker 1: those that are going to say this was a blue wave. Right,

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Speaker 1: I think you have a hard time calling it a

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Speaker 1: wave without winning both thousand the Senate. But I digress.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to get to the political map in a

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Speaker 1: few minutes. And then, of course, if Republicans hold both chambers,

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Speaker 1: well you'll have a spiraling Democratic Party, if you will,

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Speaker 1: and Republicans will feel vindicated and Trump will claim total validation.

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Speaker 1: So those are the three basic outcomes. So we kind

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Speaker 1: of know one of those, you know, door number one,

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Speaker 1: Door number two, door number three. I think there's the

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Speaker 1: most likely scenario is somewhere it's either one or two.

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Speaker 1: Three feels like a pretty far fetched given where we're

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Speaker 1: starting because I think it is worth noting, and it's

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a point I made in my weekly

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Speaker 1: podcast with Crystalism on his substact feet, which is, you know,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump politically could is starting in an extraordinarily weak place.

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Speaker 1: Yet he's behaving as if he's got an extraordinary amount

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Speaker 1: of political capital, right. I kind of think he's yellowing

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Speaker 1: it a little bit, which is why one of the

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Speaker 1: reasons and the point I made a couple of the

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Speaker 1: last podcasts that why I think twenty twenty six is

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Speaker 1: the year we're all living dangerously is that we have

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Speaker 1: a president who who may personally feel very strengthened by

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Speaker 1: you know, or uninhibited, and that the Venezuela operation tactically

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Speaker 1: went so smoothly that he's going to think, hey, this

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Speaker 1: is easy. I can start playing the game of risk

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Speaker 1: all over the world. So which is why I think

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Speaker 1: there's so much extra uncertainty at this moment. So look,

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Speaker 1: we that's why I'm very skeptical that somehow this turns around.

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Speaker 1: So well, I know, Republicans believe that when the tax

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Speaker 1: refunds come in that that will start to make people

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Speaker 1: feel better about his economic plans and his economic ideas.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's see what happens when we get there doing

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Speaker 1: what he did with the FED. He is, you know

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Speaker 1: it is why if if you caught my update on that,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I did a special update in between

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Speaker 1: podcasts on the YouTube channel, so I encourage you to

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Speaker 1: go check it out if you follow me in some socials,

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Speaker 1: you may have already seen this, but you know, I

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Speaker 1: have a feeling and my, uh, what the guidance I

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Speaker 1: was trying to give on that story is, I think

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Speaker 1: you're going to see a quick exit ramp from this

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Speaker 1: phony investigation into the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The

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Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary's panic, half the White House staff is panic.

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Speaker 1: Even Trump's trying to walk away. Senate Republicans don't want

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Speaker 1: any part of this, you know, if he's hoping to

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Speaker 1: remake the FED, he just you know what, Janine Piro

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Speaker 1: is sort of personal US attorney that he appointed there

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Speaker 1: in d C. Really sort of set his set. Is

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Speaker 1: set him back quite a bit here. So I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be surprised if you see a quick retraction of this investigation,

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Speaker 1: even faster than what I speculated with a couple of

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Speaker 1: days ago. So that said, we still, look, we know

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Speaker 1: there are a range of outcomes about these midterms. What

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Speaker 1: we don't know and what's going to matter quite a bit,

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Speaker 1: and what I'm going to be looking for throughout campaign

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in order to understand where we're headed.

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Speaker 1: In campaign twenty twenty eight, our first attempt at are

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Speaker 1: true and electing a president for the post Trump era

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Speaker 1: is why voters will choose the outcome that they choose,

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Speaker 1: and that uncertainty is this central challenge of twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Because the election isn't just about what voters think of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. It's also going to be how to talk

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Speaker 1: to an electorate that is more fragmented, less partisan, as

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Speaker 1: I just outlined with this, more people identifying as independent

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Speaker 1: than either is R or D, and more exhausted than

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Speaker 1: at any point this century in politics. So twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six is functionally going to be a referendum on Trump.

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Speaker 1: That part is obvious. What's not obvious, or is how

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Speaker 1: you turn a referendum style campaign, How you run a

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Speaker 1: referendum style campaign without alienating the voters who will actually

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Speaker 1: decide it. Because the voters in the middle, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe they don't like Trump personally, but they don't mind

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Speaker 1: the disruption. Maybe they don't like the disruption, but they

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Speaker 1: like Trump. You know, they're the hardest voters to win over,

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Speaker 1: and they're the decisive voters, and that's where I'm most

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Speaker 1: interested to see how political messaging gets formulated to go

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Speaker 1: after that group of voters. Because, you know, coalitions are

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Speaker 1: never united around one belief, they're stitched together from competing motivations. So, yes,

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Speaker 1: being a resistance Democrat is going to matter to some

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Speaker 1: base voters. Being a Trump Republican is going to matter

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Speaker 1: to some Republican base voters. But elections are going to

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Speaker 1: be one. They're always one. On the margins, they're never

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Speaker 1: you know, yes, how big your political base is determines

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Speaker 1: how many voters in the margins you need to win over.

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Speaker 1: But you always need some voters on the margins. And

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Speaker 1: these days, these marginal voters and these margins are filled

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Speaker 1: with a lot more skeptical independence than we saw even

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Speaker 1: two years ago, very weakly affiliated voters with both parties.

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Speaker 1: You know. So yeah, I guess I'm leaning Democrat. I

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Speaker 1: guess I'm leaning Republican, but I'd prefer to be an independent.

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Speaker 1: Those type of folks and people who do not experience

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Speaker 1: politics the way activists do. Right. I've always said there's

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Speaker 1: a difference between the online political world and the world

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Speaker 1: everybody else lives in that goes to a safe way

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Speaker 1: and I'll lease a B Jay's at Costco, you name it.

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Speaker 1: So the real question I have is this, what do

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Speaker 1: these voters want? Right? Do they want disruption? Do they

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Speaker 1: want competence, do they want bipartisanship? Do they want stability?

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Speaker 1: And here's where I think a lot of analysts, myself included,

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Speaker 1: can get this wrong sometimes because one of the most

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Speaker 1: common mistakes in political analysis is projecting your own values

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Speaker 1: onto the electorate. Right. I know what I look for,

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Speaker 1: all right in a political candidate. I look for character, ethics, competence,

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Speaker 1: and innovation without being reckless, you know. But that's me,

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Speaker 1: and I know other people look at it differently, and

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Speaker 1: I think too often folks, and you know, folks will

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Speaker 1: project their own political what they would like to see

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Speaker 1: out of a politician onto an entire group of swing voters.

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Speaker 1: I know, all of this is our pieces. What I'm

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Speaker 1: curious to see is what will move what What is

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Speaker 1: it that this group of skeptical voters who continue to

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Speaker 1: vote who continue to tell us what they don't want.

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Speaker 1: Is there something they will embrace? Is there something to

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Speaker 1: learn in twenty twenty six that can tell us a

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Speaker 1: little bit more about twenty twenty eight. So the bottom

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Speaker 1: line is, I know I'm not the avatar for the

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Speaker 1: American vot but neither is most everybody else, Which brings

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Speaker 1: me to the core strategic question of this cycle. In

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Speaker 1: a fragmented media environment and a polarized political culture, what

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Speaker 1: is the most effective way to win in twenty twenty six?

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Speaker 1: How much base resistance, either left or right do you

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Speaker 1: have to espouse? Well, A lot of it has to do,

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Speaker 1: of course, with the electorate you have to deal with, right.

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Speaker 1: If you're dealing with the primary electorate, that's one thing.

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Speaker 1: If you're dealing with a very purple electorate, that's another.

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Speaker 1: And what's interesting to me is I think both parties

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Speaker 1: are kind of divided on which path to take. So

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Speaker 1: let me start with the Democrats. It's if you midterm

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Speaker 1: elections are easy to make, referendums easy to run as

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Speaker 1: resistance campaigns. So in some ways resistance is going to

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Speaker 1: feel like the easiest path to midterm success. Maybe it is,

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Speaker 1: But I also sense, and you see it here in

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Speaker 1: this sort of distinction ram of manuals trying to create

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Speaker 1: within the within the world of the president, which is, well,

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Speaker 1: there's the resistance, folks, and then there's the renewal. He

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Speaker 1: calls it renewal. I call it the problem solving wing.

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Speaker 1: So for Democrats' debate is, you know, might be framed

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Speaker 1: as resistance versus governance, but maybe the better way to

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Speaker 1: describe it is Trump accountabiit. How much should you focus

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Speaker 1: on accountability for Trump, the administration and the individual, versus

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Speaker 1: how much should a Democratic candidate in twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: focus on forward facing problem solving hard stop Now, the

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Speaker 1: best politicians are going to try to do both. But

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Speaker 1: there's a trap there. There's a fine line between defending

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Speaker 1: the rule of law and sounding obsessed with procedure. What

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Speaker 1: one voter sees as accountability, another sees as disruption or worse,

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Speaker 1: political grievance gets dressed up as principle. So abuse of

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Speaker 1: argument power arguments absolutely can end energize the base, don't

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Speaker 1: get me wrong, but they are not always persuasive to

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Speaker 1: voters who want politics to feel less consuming, not more right. So,

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Speaker 1: for instance, I do not think that Democrats sweeping the

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Speaker 1: House and Senate means they have a mandate to impeach

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Speaker 1: and convict Donald Trump. Right, you know, that's sort of

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it's more of they're trying to

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Speaker 1: turn the page. They want to see a check on him.

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Speaker 1: They don't want to have him run rough shot over

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Speaker 1: the Constitution. To me, that is what voters, what the

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Speaker 1: large chunk of voters are trying to say. But we

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Speaker 1: will find out, won't we. But I do have a

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Speaker 1: question that I would love to see every Democrat running

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Speaker 1: for office answer clearly, simply so I know, as a voter,

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Speaker 1: and you know, as a voter, how they're going to

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Speaker 1: behave while in office. It's not a gotcha question to me,

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Speaker 1: it's simply a governing signal. Would you work with Donald Trump?

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Speaker 1: And if so, how would you do it? Because how

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Speaker 1: you answer that question as a candidate tells me how

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Speaker 1: voters tells voters. How you plan to govern in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty seven and twenty twenty eight. It's in some ways

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Speaker 1: running in twenty twenty it's going to be easier. Cana.

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Speaker 1: We're moving on from Donald Trump. Even the Constitution says

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Speaker 1: we're moving on from Donald Trump. But if you're running

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, you've got to govern with him.

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Speaker 1: And there's a chunk of voters who don't aren't going

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Speaker 1: to sit there and say, oh, yeah, we'll wait till

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Speaker 1: there's unified democratic control or there's no no, no no.

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Speaker 1: They want you solving problems now, they don't want you postponing.

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Speaker 1: We've had enough of this postponement. We've had enough of this.

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Speaker 1: So look, I think that some Democrats are going to say,

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Speaker 1: when I asked the question, would you work with Donald Trump?

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Speaker 1: And if so, how, they say no, Because they will

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Speaker 1: argue that even agreeing with him on one issue, say

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Speaker 1: capping credit card rates, like Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: may may work together on they might say, you're just

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Speaker 1: granting legitimacy to him on everything else that I don't

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Speaker 1: agree with. And I get that argument. Now I happen

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Speaker 1: to disagree that ultimately the voters sent both Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: You know, I might argue that the voters are twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four sent Donald Trump to be president, and the

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Speaker 1: voters twenty twenty six may send a bunch of Democrats

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Speaker 1: in Congress, and they're saying, you figure it out, but

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Speaker 1: we do not want one party control because every time

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Speaker 1: they've gotten one party control, they quickly get the other

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Speaker 1: party involved in governing. So that's why I come down

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Speaker 1: on the voters are asking you, whether you like it

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Speaker 1: or not, figure out how to work with them where

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Speaker 1: you can. That said, I get the argument, and I

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Speaker 1: understand the principle you know where I sit doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: Is that what a majority of the constituents in the

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Speaker 1: in the election you're running in want, And in some

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Speaker 1: cases they may want that, and I get it, But

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Speaker 1: I do think voters deserve to know the difference between

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Speaker 1: refusing to compromise and refusing to govern. And Democrats are

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Speaker 1: going to have to decide how much they want to

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Speaker 1: be resistance warriors and how much they want to be

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Speaker 1: problem solvers. And this will be I think, a brighter

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Speaker 1: divide in twenty twenty eight. It's going to be a

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Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be in some cases you

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Speaker 1: may have to squint to see those differences here. But

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Speaker 1: I'm one who believes and will find out that's why

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Speaker 1: we hold these elections. I don't want to assume I

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Speaker 1: know the answer to hear, but I think ultimately that

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Speaker 1: last group of voters that has waffled, and that has

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Speaker 1: been voting against rather than voting for. I think they're

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Speaker 1: going to be more persuadable on a problem solving than

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Speaker 1: they are in resistance. But we shall see. I tend

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Speaker 1: to believe that ultimately voters are going to decide how

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Speaker 1: they want Donald Trump to be dealt with. They put

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Speaker 1: them there a second time. I think that you can't

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Speaker 1: ignore that if you're on the resistant side of things.

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Speaker 1: So then you ask yourself what you need to answer

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Speaker 1: the question why do voters keep doing Why did voters

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Speaker 1: do it a second time? Why? Right? What wasn't that

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Speaker 1: they weren't satisfied with? And you know, I think you

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Speaker 1: can't keep going down the road. Well, they're just not

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Speaker 1: well informed. I think these days everybody kind of knows

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Speaker 1: where he stands. Everybody kind of knows what you're going

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Speaker 1: to get. So I think you have to sort of

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Speaker 1: deal in the reality that you have, not the one

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Speaker 1: that you wish existed. Now. History suggests that forward looking

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Speaker 1: messages usually do outperform backward looking ones, especially with swing voters.

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Speaker 1: Who's looking to the future, who's building a bridge to

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Speaker 1: the twenty first century? Who's building a bridge to the

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Speaker 1: twentieth century. Right, Trump now is fair and now that's it.

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Speaker 1: Trump's won basically one of the few politicians in my

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Speaker 1: lifetime who's succeeded by constantly really relitigating the past. That

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Speaker 1: is normally not a winner in presidential politics, and he

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Speaker 1: made it a winner in twenty twenty four. In fact,

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Speaker 1: you know, his twenty sixteen campaign wasn't as backward looking

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Speaker 1: as his twenty twenty four campaign, but I would argue

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Speaker 1: it were really simply worked with his base, and then

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Speaker 1: you had reluctant swing voters decide, I don't think Biden

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Speaker 1: and Harrison know how to manage this economy. I'll take Trump.

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Speaker 1: And so that's I think how we ended up where

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Speaker 1: we ended up. But if you assume that most swing

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Speaker 1: voters aren't political diehards, and that they're frankly a bit

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Speaker 1: self interested, right, And I say that descriptively, not critically,

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Speaker 1: I think most voters vote in their self interest, not

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Speaker 1: in the greater interest. Okay, there are you know, I've

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Speaker 1: called them iceed to you know, there's sort of aspirational voters,

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Speaker 1: and there's narcissis, and there's sort of me first, you know,

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Speaker 1: forget America first, me first voters. I think most people

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Speaker 1: vote what's in their own best interest, and then they

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Speaker 1: rationalize it by saying, well, they think it's in the

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Speaker 1: greater good as well, but ultimately they want to know

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Speaker 1: what helps them, not necessarily who won yesterday's political argument.

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Speaker 1: chuck brings me to political exhaustion. We're now entering the

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Speaker 1: tenth year of the Trump era. I brought this up before.

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Speaker 1: I think the fatigue is real, and I think that's

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Speaker 1: part of why he can't seem to recover from from it,

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Speaker 1: sort of like, oh, he's the same Trump, and so

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Speaker 1: that's why people haven't sort of given they already gave

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Speaker 1: him a second, third, and fourth chance. So I don't

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Speaker 1: know if this is very recoverable, just like with Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden once he lost it after afghanistdate wasn't recoverable because

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Speaker 1: I kind of think he was too known of a

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Speaker 1: figure even though he was a first term president. Hey

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Speaker 1: been vice president, he'd been there. You know, there wasn't

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Speaker 1: there there. There wasn't going to be the same level

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Speaker 1: of patience that a Bill Clinton got, a George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush got, and even the Donald Trump got the first

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Speaker 1: time or what BARACKO or the or the or the

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Speaker 1: benefit of doubt, Barack Obama got the of his first

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Speaker 1: term even though the economy hadn't quite yet turned around,

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Speaker 1: but he got there because he was still seen his

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Speaker 1: new ish to this. So I think this time fatigue

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Speaker 1: is real, and I don't know where that's going. So

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Speaker 1: I think that a turn the page messaging in some

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Speaker 1: form may be more appealing to independence than being seen

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Speaker 1: as perpetually resisting. And I would argue there's a piece

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Speaker 1: of the Republican base that's perpetually resisting the grievance side

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Speaker 1: of things, and on the Democratic side, the Trump resistance.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to say that to say resistance is wrong,

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Speaker 1: and I don't even want to imply that resistance is futile.

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Speaker 1: I think resistance is necessary when it goes up against

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Speaker 1: the Constitution, but I just don't think it's sufficient to

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Speaker 1: win elections. Right. It may be sufficient to win primaries,

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Speaker 1: but I'm not sure wins general elections. Look, none of

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Speaker 1: this is definitive, but I will just tell you in

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Speaker 1: the past, optimism usually wins in elections unless it misreads

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Speaker 1: the mood of the electorate, right. And the truth is,

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Speaker 1: that's something we don't fully know yet is which message

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Speaker 1: is going to land the hardest in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: It could be that we're in such a cranky mood

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Speaker 1: that optimism and trying to turn the page doesn't work

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Speaker 1: because people aren't ready to look ahead. They want to

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Speaker 1: deal with the problems staring them in the face. But

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Speaker 1: that's where that's why I think this is a This

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Speaker 1: might be a bit of a moving target, and why

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Speaker 1: that In my larger thesis here, why I think messaging

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six is not going to be easy

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Speaker 1: because of fragmentation, because I think somewhat resistance and somewhat

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Speaker 1: turned the page, and there's just going to be this

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Speaker 1: isn't going to be as easy as you think. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's turn to the Republicans, because I kind of think

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Speaker 1: they do face a what I call a mirror image dilemma.

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Speaker 1: There's a simple math problem that I have to deal

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Speaker 1: with in primaries, Republican primaries, because the easiest way to

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Speaker 1: win is to make the election about Donald Trump in

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Speaker 1: a primary. Right, if you can be the defender of

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Speaker 1: Trump and trump Ism in the primary and the sort

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Speaker 1: of the big the chief bulwark against anybody trying to

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Speaker 1: get rid of Trump, that's good politics for you in

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Speaker 1: a Republican priory. But the more the election is about Trump,

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Speaker 1: the more you do risk alienating the middle in a

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Speaker 1: general election, especially if you're from a competitive state, including

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Speaker 1: places like Texas or even Iowa or even Kansas. In theory,

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Speaker 1: this should create space for pragmatic Republicans to survive. In practice,

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Speaker 1: partisanship and fear of disloyalty make that nearly impossible. You know,

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Speaker 1: if I were a Republican office holder. It would really

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Speaker 1: piss me off that Trump is allowed to triangulate on

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Speaker 1: any issue whenever he wants. He's allowed to go off

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Speaker 1: the reservation and say, yeah, I'm calling up Elizabeth Warren

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Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about capping credit card interest rates.

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Speaker 1: But if another senator says they want to work with

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Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren to do X, Y or Z, you know,

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Speaker 1: the loyalty police will be like, there's a rhino. What

427
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: kind of Soros bribery money has suddenly even slipped into

428
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 1: so and so's kool aid drink? Right? So it's it is.

429
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 1: It's fascinating with Trump, it's sort of he gets to

430
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 1: sort of triangulate and shift and duck and dodge. But

431
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 1: if another elected Republican who's actually going to be on

432
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 1: the ballot in twenty six attempts it, there's usually some

433
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,719
Speaker 1: sort of loyalty police that is calling the MAGA cops

434
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,880
Speaker 1: on these folks. So he can flirt with capping credit

435
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 1: card interest rates, but I'm not sure Dan Sullivan can

436
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,120
Speaker 1: do that. Right, he can break ideological rules without consequence,

437
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 1: but good luck if you're John Cornyn and you try

438
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 1: to do that, and so you end up with a

439
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: party right now that they're stuck in a strange trap.

440
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: Trump can redefine conservatism on the fly, and he does

441
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: it quite a bit, but anyone running under his banner

442
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: is punished for trying to do the same. So you

443
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: have the primary incentives that reward loyalty tests even when

444
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:15,120
Speaker 1: those tests weaken candidates for November see Texas Ken Paxton.

445
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: And then there's governing. Republicans technically control the House. Functionally,

446
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 1: they often don't. There's such narrow margins that we've now

447
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 1: have had health absences, basic life realities, a car accident,

448
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: a health issue, this or that that mean the majority

449
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: is extraordinarily fragile at best. There was a time last

450
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: week where there were two hundred and thirteen Democrats and

451
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: two n thirteen Republicans. Neither Republicans didn't have a majority,

452
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,400
Speaker 1: and they had to be careful which votes they put

453
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 1: on the floor, Which puts the party in an interesting

454
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 1: place at the moment because there are many Republican incumbents,

455
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: both in the House and the Senate, who would love

456
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: one more attempt at legislating before twenty twenty the campaign

457
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six, they'd like to do another reconciliation bill.

458
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 1: These you know where you only need fifty votes in

459
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: the Senate so you can get you know, so your

460
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: party sort of party line votes and get some stuff done.

461
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 1: They did the one big, beautiful bill, but they want

462
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 1: something else tangible to run on before a tough midterm.

463
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: But the problem they got is President Trump appears to

464
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: be increasingly uninterested in working with Congress at all, even

465
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 1: when his party is in charge. I've talked to multiple

466
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 1: Republican lawmakers who say they'd like to do a reconciliation bill,

467
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: but admit the White House doesn't seem to be that

468
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 1: interested in it. And if he's not going to move

469
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 1: be interested in it, they're not going to be able

470
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: to get the votes they need. They're not going to

471
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: be able to define with the what would be and

472
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: said reconciliation bill and what happens, Well, what's the point

473
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 1: of what are Republicans running to do to keep their

474
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 1: majority to do what with it? If Donald Trump won't

475
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: even let them use their majority to do something. This

476
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 1: calendar here, So his disengagement doesn't just frustrate lawmakers, it

477
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: undermines their entire campaign argument. If the President doesn't seem

478
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: to care about legislating even when Republicans control Congress, then

479
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 1: why should voters care about preserving the Republican majority in

480
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. This is the mistake that they're going

481
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: to make. But you know, by not doing some trying

482
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 1: to attempt to do some legislating. Now, maybe the majorities

483
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: are just too narrow and they don't think a reconciliation

484
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 1: bill can succeed, and trying to do one and not

485
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: getting it done would be a massive political failure. So

486
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 1: there's sort of this fear of failure. But I just

487
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 1: don't think that, you know, ultimately, if the only thing

488
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: they end up having to run on is vote Republican

489
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: to stop impeachment, maybe that excites the president's base a

490
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 1: little bit. I just don't know if that is enough

491
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: to woo a swing voter. We'll see. Trump knows enough

492
00:28:56,680 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: about how presidencies work to understand that losing the midterm

493
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 1: effectively ends his ability to be any kind of activist president.

494
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 1: And yet he doesn't seem ready to help his fellow

495
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: Republicans actually legislate so they could actually make a case

496
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: for why they're needed in Congress. And in fact, he's

497
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: cutting off his own party off at the knees, and

498
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: if you're trying to We've noticed that a bunch of

499
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: Republicans are quietly, you know, trying to get distance from

500
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 1: Trump where they think it's necessary. Right, you have a

501
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: growing number of Republicans willing to vote for Obamacare subsidies,

502
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: growing number of Republicans in the Senate willing to put

503
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 1: a check on the War Powers Act when it came

504
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: to military action in Venezuela, Greenland, etc. You have a

505
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: growing number of Republicans of the Senate. You don't like

506
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: what the hell he's messing around with the independence of

507
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: the Fed. So there's certainly plenty of places Republicans would

508
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: like to declare some independence, and yet they can't. But

509
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: Donald Trump can't. Right, he gets to go all over

510
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: the map. But if a Republican down the ballot attempts

511
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: to do it, the Rhino police get called. Which also

512
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: brings me to what's actually happening on the ground. This week,

513
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: Democrats got a huge recruiting victory out of Alaska. They

514
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: have a real Senate candidate in a state that is

515
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: not always easy for them to win the last time

516
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: they won a senen sat in Alaska, it took an

517
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: indictment of the sitting senator essentially to make that a

518
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: plausible But it isn't impossible, especially Alaska has shown it

519
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 1: may be. It is certainly a libertarian leaning conservative red state,

520
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: but emphasis on libertarian. They're very skeptical of government in general,

521
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 1: strong government in general, and there's a reason why Lisa

522
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 1: Murkowski has sort of in some ways more of the

523
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: avatar of the Alaska voter than anybody else that's been

524
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: in power. But it's a big deal to recruit Mary Patello,

525
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: and she is somebody that what was in her best interest,

526
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: what wasn't her best interest, might have been running for governor.

527
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: It's a less partisan race, it's a more Alaska focused race.

528
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 1: She wouldn't have to get into the Trump wars, but

529
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 1: the fact that she's wanting to take one for the party.

530
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: This is the harder race. Running for the Senate. She's

531
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 1: challenging an incumbent who's no Maga Republican in Dan Sullivan.

532
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: First time I interviewed him I meet the press, he

533
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,959
Speaker 1: described himself to me as a McCain Republican. I'm not

534
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: sure he's going to use that phraseology right now, because

535
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: that can you know, he's gotten away with looking conservative

536
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 1: when he stands next to Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. So

537
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: I don't think many sort of mainstream conservative Republicans realize,

538
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: you know, he's much more of a moderate and very

539
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 1: much an internationalists on that print, because that's when he

540
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: told when he said he's a McCain Republican, he really

541
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: was trying to emphasize the national security side of things.

542
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is the recruitment of Peltel putting

543
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 1: Alaska in Playts can now plausibly point they need four

544
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: pick up four Senate seats and hold Michigan in Georgia,

545
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: They're in New Hampshire and Minnesota. Okay, therese are four

546
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: vulnerable open seats that they have to defend. One is

547
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: not open in Georgia, but three the Michigan, Minnesota, in

548
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 1: New Hampshire are those aren't easy to defend. I think

549
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: the light blue states are defensive, easier to defend in

550
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: a mid term with Trump in the white House than

551
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: if it were a mid term with Biden in the

552
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: white House. But the Democrats can now plausibly point to

553
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 1: five Republican held pick up opportunities They've got May the

554
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: Susan Collins seat, which she may or may not seek reelection.

555
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: Some longtime Collins observers have noted she's not yet filed.

556
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: Now filing deadline still a couple of months away. Just

557
00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: worth noting North Carolina, we've seen both, I mean, Roy Cooper,

558
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,959
Speaker 1: the former governor there is raised a s ton of money.

559
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: Michael Wattley's doing pretty well, but he's still coming up

560
00:32:56,840 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 1: fifty cents to every dollar that Cooper's doing. North Carolina

561
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: one hundred percent in play. The recruitment has shared. Brown

562
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: in Ohio puts Ohio in play. You know, he may

563
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: he's got a path to forty eight. I don't know

564
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: if he can get to fifty. Buddy, when he's gotten

565
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: he he is one. Two of his three Senate victories

566
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: came in midterm years. Presidential years are slightly harder in Ohio, Alaska,

567
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: as I just point out, and then of course the

568
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: mess in Texas. You know, if Ken Paxson is the

569
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 1: Republican nominee, you know, any Democrats going to keep that competitor,

570
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 1: so they actually you know, they need four and they

571
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 1: got five in play. And when you've recruited someone, like

572
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 1: when you've gotten a recruit like Mary Peltello in Alaska. Well, now,

573
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: if you're trying to get the outgoing governor of Kansas,

574
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 1: Lord Kelly, or the congresswoman in Kansas, Sharise Davids to

575
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 1: think about running in the Senate, you can point to

576
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,719
Speaker 1: Alaska and if you're if you're trying to, you know,

577
00:33:55,040 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 1: decide whether to put some resources into Iowa. I think

578
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that there's enough political tumult and Iowa

579
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: this year open race for governor or Democrats have a

580
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 1: strong candidate that Iowa I think is in place. So

581
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 1: that would be a six. Maybe you get a seventh

582
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 1: in Kansas. Maybe you get a Jared Moskowitz, a Democratic

583
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: Congressman from South Florida, to suddenly jump into the Senate race.

584
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 1: Now in Florida, maybe you can can put the old

585
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio seat which is being held by an appointed

586
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:27,399
Speaker 1: senator on that one. The point is is that that

587
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: recruiting coup in Alaska only potentially opens the door to

588
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: get a serious recruit in Kansas, get a serious recruit

589
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: in Florida, maybe even open the door in a Mississippi.

590
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: But it's bottom line, the Democrats are much further along

591
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: in putting the Senate in play than I expected at

592
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 1: this point in the calendar. Even in six, when they

593
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: needed six seats, they had to put eight serious in

594
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 1: play in order to win the six. At this point

595
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 1: in time, nobody thought they could get the six. It

596
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: was like, how many you know, how close are they

597
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 1: going to get? Can they get close enough that they

598
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 1: can win the Senate? BA pick up three or four?

599
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,439
Speaker 1: And that was the conversation at this point in time

600
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: in that calendar. Well, here we are in January of

601
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, and Democrats already have a path to

602
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: find five in legitimate five likely a six in Iowa.

603
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,399
Speaker 1: And we'll see if seven, eight or nine come up.

604
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: But that's I think that is a reminder of just

605
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 1: how precarious this environment is for Republicans going forward. So

606
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: we'll see. By the way, one more little data point

607
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: about the four seat pickup for Democrats. Democrats need four

608
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 1: seats to flip the Senate. It is worth noting that

609
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 1: over the laste hundred years, basically since the start of

610
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 1: direct election of senators, the party out of power when

611
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: they gain Senate seats, the average pickup is four. So

612
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 1: Democrats only have to meet the average. They don't have

613
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:02,439
Speaker 1: to overperform six, eight, or ten, they only need four.

614
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 1: Not easy with this map, but now it's no longer improbable,

615
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: let alone and possible, so we'll see. Meanwhile, Republicans face

616
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: a governing reality that's quietly shaping the cycle. They don't

617
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 1: really have a workinghouse majority. Their president doesn't seem eager

618
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,840
Speaker 1: to help them prove why Republican majorities matter to voters

619
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. So that combination narrow control, legislative stagnation,

620
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 1: and a president who prefers unilateral action creates a messaging

621
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 1: vacuum for Republican incumbents trying to justify their relevance. So, look,

622
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: I don't have a clear answer of what message is

623
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 1: going to be the best message for success in twenty

624
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 1: twenty six For Republicans? Can they triangulate Trump? Unlikely? For Democrats?

625
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: Is it resistance versus forward problem solving. I'm here to

626
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: lay out what I'm looking for, and let's see how

627
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 1: this plays out. But I do know this twenty twenty

628
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: six is going to teach us what exact actally works

629
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: with voters in the Trump era second decade. Does resistance

630
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: still mobilize enough voters to win. Does exhaustion finally outweigh anger?

631
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 1: Do voters want confrontation or competence or competent confrontation? And

632
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: while we know they want disruption, what does disruption look

633
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 1: like in a post Trump world? Boy, we're going to

634
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 1: learn a lot. I can't wait for election season to

635
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:28,760
Speaker 1: begin in my role as political anthropologists, but I will

636
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 1: admit I am there's a reason I call twenty twenty

637
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 1: sixth the year we're living dangerously. I am always nervous

638
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: about what kind of tinder box we are living in.

639
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: And speaking of said tinderbox, I want to give you

640
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,359
Speaker 1: a little update on what's happening out of Minnesota. In

641
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 1: Minneapolis in particular, Quinnipiac is the first reputable polster to

642
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 1: come out of the field national poll asking what voters

643
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 1: how voters are reacting to the shooting. And let me

644
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 1: just get right to the question as far I'm going

645
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 1: to read you the exact question as it was worded,

646
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: as far as you are aware, do you think this

647
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 1: shooting was justified or not justified? Thirty five percent called

648
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: it justified, fifty three percent said not justified. Only twelve

649
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: percent preferred not to answer it. Didn't know. Let me

650
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 1: give you a little party breakdown on that. Among Republicans,

651
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: seventy seven percent called it justified, ten percent said not justified.

652
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 1: Among Democrats, it was ninety two percent not justified, four

653
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: percent justified. Among independents, well, they look like the overall majority, right.

654
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: Fifty nine percent of Independence said it was not justified.

655
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 1: Just twenty eight percent of Independence said it was justified.

656
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 1: And there is a massive gender gap, as you might

657
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: expect when the victim of this shooting is a mother. Anyway,

658
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: sixty one percent of women said this was not justified.

659
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 1: Thirty percent of women said it was a narrow plurality

660
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 1: of forty two percent said it was justified, forty one

661
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: percent excuse me, forty four percent it was a nar floral.

662
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: He said it was not justified, Forty four percent said

663
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 1: it was not justified. Of men, forty two percent said

664
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 1: it was justified. But that is a massive so basically

665
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: a two point difference between justified and not justified among

666
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 1: men and a thirty one point gap among those two women.

667
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: It is, as a friend of mine, Dante Cheney point out,

668
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:28,640
Speaker 1: if we you know, he and I have been talking

669
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: about this for a long time that what is the

670
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 1: what is the magabase? I think it's thirty five percent, right,

671
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 1: that thirty five percent saying it's justified. That's the magabase.

672
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 1: That's not necessarily the Republican base per se, but maybe

673
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:45,279
Speaker 1: it is Trump's Republican party. Few other notes from this poll.

674
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of respondents were aware of the incident.

675
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: Just to put that in context, that's sky high. That

676
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: basically means everybody is aware of the incident. They may

677
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:57,880
Speaker 1: have gotten a different you know, seen it differently depending

678
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 1: on where they get their news. But that is that

679
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 1: is saturation in this fragmented day and age. Eighty two percent.

680
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: And it was across the board, right, it was eighty

681
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 1: three percent of Republicans had seen or heard about the video,

682
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 1: eighty one percent of Democrats, eighty four of independence. It

683
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 1: was across the board. So this this is a story

684
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 1: that has penetrated. This is not a online story that

685
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 1: went viral. This is something I think bigger than that.

686
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 1: The Quinnipiac did ask a couple of proved disapproved questions.

687
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: Christie no Her handling every job as Secretary of Homeland

688
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 1: Security thirty six percent approof fifty two percent disapproved, and

689
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 1: then do you approve a disapprove of the way US

690
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 1: Immigration and Customs Enforcement aka ICE is enforcing immigration laws.

691
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 1: Forty percent approved, fifty seven percent disapproved. I think it's

692
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 1: interesting that ICE has a higher approval rating than NOME,

693
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: but also a higher disapproval rating than NOME. For what

694
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: it's worth, bottom line is that there was no there's

695
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: barely anybody who doesn't have an opinion on ICE. Just

696
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: three percent said they didn't have an opinion versus Christie NOME,

697
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: where there's twelve percent. But the point of this poll is,

698
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:06,919
Speaker 1: look Quinnipiac. If you wanted to tell me, Quinnepiac always

699
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: seems to lean you know, one or two points democratic.

700
00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 1: That's true, but it's a very consistent number. The point

701
00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:14,359
Speaker 1: is this is a double digit gap. So I don't

702
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: think there's any you know, the fact that there's a

703
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: clear majority, and it's a clear majority of independence and

704
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: massive majority of Democrats, and then you see the Republican

705
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 1: the other way. You know, I look at any of

706
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: these sort of quote whose narrative is winning or whose

707
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: issue profile is winning? I just always focus on the

708
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: independence because your group of independence, especially with Quinnipiac, quantifies

709
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: independence they include leaners, but it's usually an even number

710
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: of lean D independence and lean R independence. That's a

711
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: big number, and that's that's a huge gap. The point

712
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 1: is this is not playing well with any voter outside

713
00:41:56,800 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 1: the base, and it's it's hard to see how this

714
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 1: gets better for the administration, how this gets better for

715
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 1: Ice And I think, you know, I wonder, I wonder

716
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 1: if Christy Nome is going to be the I wonder.

717
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: You know, it's funny, you know, Donald Trump has had

718
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 1: this whole don't know firings because he doesn't want to

719
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 1: create narratives that say this person failed at their job. Right,

720
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 1: That's why Pete Haiksat has survived his incompetency at the Pentagon.

721
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 1: I wonder if Christy nom number. You know, one thing

722
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: Donald Trump cares about is that stuff, right, is poll writings.

723
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 1: And you know, she's been a terrible spokesperson for DHS.

724
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 1: Her immediate decision to come out and defend maybe good

725
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,400
Speaker 1: base politics for her if she wants to run for

726
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 1: president in the MAGA primary. But it is causing all

727
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,279
Speaker 1: sorts of problems for the image of the of the

728
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 1: party as a whole, and it's actually going to set

729
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 1: back you know, the more the tactics of immigration enforcement

730
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: are the story, the more they're going to, you know,

731
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 1: lose the larger argument about immigration and whether there's anybody

732
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,919
Speaker 1: that realizes, hey, you kind of you need to put

733
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,799
Speaker 1: this story away. Christy Nome is an easy scapegoate here.

734
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:24,319
Speaker 1: The Donald Trump first term would have John Kelly as

735
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,240
Speaker 1: chief of staff, would have probably talked him into dumping Gnome.

736
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 1: At this point, I think that there seems to be

737
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 1: less of that, but I'm guessing, you know, she's I

738
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 1: do think she's in a precarious spot because she's she's

739
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 1: not well liked in the West wing circle. There's some

740
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 1: that do like Noome, some that are skeptical, some that

741
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:48,959
Speaker 1: are mad about Corey Lewandowski, who's a close political aid,

742
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: always rumored to be even closer than that. I don't

743
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 1: want to dabble in that, but that does color the perception.

744
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,120
Speaker 1: You know, this is not about what you know. Any

745
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: of you listening might say, well, why wouldn't he fire Nome?

746
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 1: She's in competent, she's not good at this job, et cetera,

747
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 1: et cetera. That isn't the way mag the Trump world works.

748
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 1: But she's already She's already not in the best place

749
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: with many in Trump world. So if this continues to

750
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:20,040
Speaker 1: be a political problem overall for the president, she becomes

751
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 1: when you look at numbers like this, she becomes a

752
00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: potential easy scapegoat and it sort of exit ramp if

753
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 1: he kind of wants to quote unquote turn the page

754
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: on this. But maybe he doesn't. Maybe they think this

755
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: is a good fight for them. I don't see it,

756
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: And I think this initiapoling shows you that, and you

757
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: know how it's not You know it's not good politics.

758
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 1: Find me an elected Republican sitting in a swing district

759
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: who has defended it. You're not going to find one.

760
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 1: Let me sneak of a break. When we come back,

761
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:58,799
Speaker 1: meet the new centrist hope. I guess if you want

762
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: to call it that. If if there is such thing

763
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:04,560
Speaker 1: as a center lane in California politics, is John Slavitt

764
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 1: the answer when we come back, having good life insurance

765
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 1: is incredibly important. I know from personal experience. I was

766
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 1: sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.

767
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 1: He didn't leave us in the best shape. My mother,

768
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: single mother, now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out

769
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 1: how am I going to pay for college? And lo

770
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: and behold, my dad had one life insurance policy that

771
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: we found wasn't a lot, but it was important at

772
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: the time, and it's why I was able to go

773
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 1: to college. Little did he know how important that would

774
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775
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776
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777
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Speaker 1: an online platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy,

779
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780
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781
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782
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783
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784
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786
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 1: as low as two dollars a day that would be

787
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 1: billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider

788
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:27,640
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789
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:32,280
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790
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791
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:41,200
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792
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Speaker 1: may vary, and the rates themselves may vary as well,

793
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: but trust me, life insurance is something you should really

794
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: think about it, especially if you've got a growing family.

795
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: All Right, it is Wednesday, which means I'm bringing back

796
00:46:56,239 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 1: the top five lists, Top five, top top five. I

797
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:07,880
Speaker 1: promise most of my top five lists are going to

798
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 1: be you know, sometimes it'll be politically related, top five

799
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:14,720
Speaker 1: Senate seat pickups, maybe top five states that could flip

800
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,439
Speaker 1: on governor's races, and I'll do all of that. And

801
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 1: that's coming up, and I'll start back in on that

802
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:24,720
Speaker 1: in the next couple of weeks. But man, I got

803
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 1: I got orange and green fever. All right. I am

804
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: all about the U right now. I am all about

805
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 1: the Hurricanes. You know, those of you that know me

806
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 1: know college football is level of importance in my life

807
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: is way too by. Okay, it's probably a borderline sickness.

808
00:47:44,480 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 1: I fully, I fully do that. So but I feel

809
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 1: like I have one more opportunity to be totally at

810
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 1: Cane's homer. Here use my top five lists to talk

811
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 1: about something that's quite important to people that care about

812
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 1: Miami her Ricanes football. And I'd like to think this

813
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: should matter a little bit to even folks care about

814
00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:06,399
Speaker 1: college football, and that is where does this Miami team

815
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:10,880
Speaker 1: should they win the national title and upset Indiana, And

816
00:48:10,920 --> 00:48:13,839
Speaker 1: apparently everybody thinks Indiana is going to win and win

817
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 1: big is the is the point spread keeps going up?

818
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 1: Apparently nobody is using their own eyes to see how

819
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:26,360
Speaker 1: the Miami Hurricanes football team has performed. But I understand

820
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 1: the You know, those that think Indiana is going to

821
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 1: blow out Miami probably thought Oregon and Alabama were national

822
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: title contenders. Memo to self, I never thought they were

823
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 1: national title contenders. But I digress. So where would this

824
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five team fit? Because if this team wins

825
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 1: a national title, they will do something that a Miami

826
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:49,279
Speaker 1: Hurricanes national title team has never done. They have won

827
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: a national title with two losses. Miami has had five

828
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 1: national titles famously, three of them were undefeated seasons, two

829
00:48:57,560 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 1: of them were one loss seasons, and it is so

830
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: it is it is one of those that it's unusual

831
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: for them to do two. Of course, in this playoff format.

832
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:14,239
Speaker 1: This is now going to become probably more common, not

833
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 1: less common. We will have more and more two lost champions.

834
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,399
Speaker 1: Question is how many? You know how many over time?

835
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 1: But I think you're going to see probably half this

836
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: field will be one los. You know, half of them

837
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 1: will be undefeated, sir. One lossers. Probably a lot more

838
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 1: one lossers than undefeated, and about half the field will

839
00:49:31,960 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: be two losses. If it gets to twenty four, we'll

840
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 1: have some three loss teams sneak in there. But I'm

841
00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 1: not sure three loss teams will ever make it into

842
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,040
Speaker 1: the national title. So where do you rank them? Right? Look,

843
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: the number one all time Miami Hurricanes national title team

844
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: is the one that many consider the greatest college football

845
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 1: team of all time, and that is the two thousand

846
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,439
Speaker 1: and one Miami Hurricanes. This is a team that had

847
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: a running back room that included at least one Hall

848
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 1: of Famer for sure, and Frank Gore. Arguably Clinton Portis

849
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 1: is still going to get considered, and he had Willis

850
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:07,520
Speaker 1: McGahee who was a first round draft pick. It was

851
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:09,840
Speaker 1: just as deep of a room. You had a wide

852
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 1: receiver tandem in Andre Johnson, who ends up who should

853
00:50:15,440 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 1: be in the Hall of Fame. I think he just

854
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,359
Speaker 1: got into the Hall of Fame. You had a dev

855
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 1: It just was something. I think thirty eight guys on

856
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,400
Speaker 1: that team ended up in the NFL, some absurd number

857
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 1: like that. It was probably the most talented team I

858
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 1: Amy ever had, and in hindsight, it was a team

859
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 1: that coached themselves. No offense to Larry Coker. He look

860
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:38,839
Speaker 1: he was the offensive coordinator turned head coach after Butch

861
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: Davis left for the pros the year before. And in

862
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,279
Speaker 1: some ways it's a disappointing team. While this team won

863
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 1: the national title, this is a team that arguably should

864
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:52,040
Speaker 1: have gotten to play for the national title the year

865
00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: before but didn't due to a bizarre computer glitch, and

866
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 1: lost a national title the next year due to a

867
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 1: questionable Passinger feararents call against Ohio State. The point is

868
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:06,640
Speaker 1: that three year entity there. There's nothing like it. So

869
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,560
Speaker 1: that's what to me, why that team trump's LSU when

870
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 1: you're trying to compare LSU twenty nineteen. The other team

871
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,279
Speaker 1: that has thought of is one of the greatest. And

872
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 1: this is why even if Indiana wins the whole thing

873
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 1: sixteen and oh is impressive, don't get me wrong, But

874
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: I don't think the lack of NFL talent compared to

875
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 1: the Miami twenty oh one team and the LSU twenty

876
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: nineteen team, to me, is the differentiator. Sixteens and oh

877
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: is impressive. They deserve to be in one of the

878
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 1: five all time greatest, so I'm going to give them that,

879
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:39,359
Speaker 1: But I don't think they cracked the top two conversation

880
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:43,080
Speaker 1: between Miami oh one and LSU nineteen. So going back

881
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 1: to MI, Miami top five. So that's we know the

882
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: two thousand and one team is number one, So what's

883
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 1: number two? Well, the number two teams Jimmy Johnson's loan

884
00:51:50,520 --> 00:51:53,399
Speaker 1: national title team. That was the eighty seven national title team.

885
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: This is the team they went twelve and oh. This

886
00:51:56,640 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 1: was This was the year after the infamous fatigues deplaning

887
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl with Jerome Brown and that incredible

888
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:09,399
Speaker 1: defensive line that they had there. To this day, how

889
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 1: Miami lost that game to Penn State is beyond me.

890
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 1: Had Vinnie Testaverdi just handed the ball off once to

891
00:52:15,600 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 1: Alonzo Highsmith inside the ten and that final drive Miami

892
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 1: scores wins a game, and that eighty sixteen is considered

893
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:25,680
Speaker 1: one of the greatest of all time. And I'm going

894
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 1: to put a pin in that eighty sixteen because I

895
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,439
Speaker 1: want to talk about them in what if Miami doesn't

896
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 1: win the national title conversation. So the number two team

897
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 1: of all times at eighty seven Miami National Title team

898
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,879
Speaker 1: twelve and zero. I was the first national title game.

899
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: I got to attend to watch them win in person,

900
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 1: the eighty three to one. I was not there in person.

901
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: My father wanted to watch it at home, so we

902
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 1: sold our tickets. We actually drove to the Orange Bowl

903
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 1: to sell to scout the tickets. My fifty three year

904
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 1: old self is going, what are you doing, Dad? Why

905
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 1: did we not go to that game? But I, you know,

906
00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 1: the twelve year old version of me, I was in charge.

907
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:04,359
Speaker 1: He was in charge, So we didn't go. So they're

908
00:53:04,440 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 1: number two, and you know, it's historical status. This is

909
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 1: when people think of the U. This is the team.

910
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 1: The eighty seven team is the U. It's Michael Irvin,

911
00:53:14,840 --> 00:53:20,439
Speaker 1: it's Jimmy Johnson, this is the U. Okay, that's that team.

912
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 1: Number three is the nineteen ninety one twelve and ozho team.

913
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,440
Speaker 1: It's a team that had to share a national title

914
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: if you with washing the undefeated Washington Huskies. This was

915
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:36,359
Speaker 1: among the results that sort of after it was two

916
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 1: years in a row that we had split national titles.

917
00:53:38,840 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 1: Nineteen ninety the national title was split between Colorado and

918
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,920
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, and in nineteen ninety one the title was

919
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: split between Miami and Washington. And that's when everybody's like,

920
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: we've got to get rid of this. We've got to

921
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:51,879
Speaker 1: have some system that at least lets the two best

922
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 1: teams play each other. So let's have at it, right

923
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 1: and you talk to them. I have friends in Seattle

924
00:53:56,960 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 1: who will argued to this day that Washington team would

925
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:04,279
Speaker 1: have easily handled Miami, and of course I think the opposite.

926
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 1: But it was a that was that was Miami, the program,

927
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:12,040
Speaker 1: that was the machine, that was the team that just

928
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 1: sort of couldn't you know, they just it was never flashy.

929
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,680
Speaker 1: It was this Dennis Erickson offense, which was kind of unique.

930
00:54:19,719 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 1: It was a one back system and Gino Tretta, who

931
00:54:23,600 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 1: won the Heisman Trophy that year, was just maketually won

932
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 1: the Heisman Trophy the the year after. But he was

933
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 1: he just was such a great point guard quarterback. I

934
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 1: don't house to describe it. But that's and he knew

935
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: this offense better than anybody else. The number four all

936
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 1: time teams one I've already referenced. It's nineteen eighty three

937
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 1: eleven on one team. You know, I'll never forget in

938
00:54:47,600 --> 00:54:50,760
Speaker 1: something standard were when my father and I were watching

939
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 1: the Florida we played the Miami lost its first game

940
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 1: of the season that year to Florida. We got killed.

941
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 1: Well it's twenty eighth to three, and I remember my

942
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 1: dad saying is And at the time, I thought he

943
00:54:59,920 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 1: was just giving me hope and he says, no, no, no,

944
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:05,399
Speaker 1: this Bernie Cosark because we started this freshman quarterback named

945
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: Bernie Cosar. He said, this guy's going to be great.

946
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he made some amazing passes, balls

947
00:55:09,960 --> 00:55:12,680
Speaker 1: were dropped. This is going to be an interesting season. Well,

948
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 1: guess what, we didn't lose another game. And this is

949
00:55:15,400 --> 00:55:17,399
Speaker 1: of course, I referenced this the other day. The last

950
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 1: time Miami was an underdog playing for the national title

951
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:23,399
Speaker 1: in their home stadium, they were facing a team whose

952
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:25,359
Speaker 1: schools colors were red and white, and it was the

953
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 1: Nebraska team. They were double digit favorites. Maybe one of

954
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 1: the greatest college football championship games of all time thirty

955
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 1: one to thirty tom Osbourne. Ever, the competitor goes for

956
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 1: two rather than the tie. But you know what, it

957
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 1: wouldn't have mattered if he'd gone for the tie. Bernie

958
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,279
Speaker 1: Cosar had forty five seconds left when we got the

959
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:46,400
Speaker 1: ball back. We were winning that game. He'd had driven

960
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 1: us down the field to get the winning field goal.

961
00:55:48,200 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 1: I never I have no doubt in my mind. And

962
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 1: that brings me to number five. If Miami wins, I

963
00:55:56,680 --> 00:55:58,520
Speaker 1: think this team will go there because it will be

964
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 1: the resurrection to It will be the team that brought

965
00:56:01,360 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 1: Miami back, and it will be the team that had

966
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 1: to beat more great teams than any other national title

967
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 1: team ever. If Miami beats Indiana, they'll have beaten number

968
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:13,240
Speaker 1: one Indiana, Number two, Ohio, State, number six, Old Miss,

969
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 1: number seven, Texas A, and m oh let's not forget

970
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. They will have won three SEC games, beaten

971
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 1: three different SEC opponents. They'll have beaten two different Big

972
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:31,479
Speaker 1: Ten opponents. Obviously, they didn't win the eight CEC because

973
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:35,520
Speaker 1: of the bizarre diebreaker rules, which would always is going

974
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 1: to be an awkward by the way comment under this

975
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 1: team but it is. I do think when you look,

976
00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:49,040
Speaker 1: there is no national title team that will have had

977
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 1: to deal with the gauntlet that And by the way,

978
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,120
Speaker 1: this is going to be the new normal, right going

979
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 1: through a gauntlet now is the only way you're gonna

980
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 1: win national title. You're going to have to beat three

981
00:56:59,200 --> 00:57:02,560
Speaker 1: or two. But you know, in some ways Indiana had

982
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:05,799
Speaker 1: to beat Ohio State to get its by You're going

983
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 1: to need to win to defeat three great top ten

984
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 1: teams to win a national title. Now at the end

985
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: of the season, that's just something that the system didn't

986
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:22,200
Speaker 1: force that to happen before now, so that's why it

987
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 1: is unique. But I'm going to put that team now

988
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 1: if they lose. I do think this team is going

989
00:57:28,840 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: to go into the conversation with the eighty six team

990
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 1: and the two thousand and two team and the two

991
00:57:34,160 --> 00:57:39,560
Speaker 1: thousand team, three other Miami teams that arguably had the

992
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:43,960
Speaker 1: most talent of anybody in the country, but somehow didn't

993
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:46,120
Speaker 1: win the national title either. They weren't allowed to play

994
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 1: for it due to a computer glitch. In two thousand,

995
00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 1: a weird flag is thrown, and like in two thousand

996
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,800
Speaker 1: for the two thousand and three Fiesta, Bowl or they

997
00:57:56,840 --> 00:58:01,720
Speaker 1: run into the Hallmark movie that is Fernando Mendoza. But

998
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: there you go. If this Miami team wins, I will

999
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 1: put them as our fifth, which means it's over and

1000
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 1: above the eighty nine team. So it would you know,

1001
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:14,320
Speaker 1: it would bump one. You know. The eighty nine team

1002
00:58:14,360 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 1: is sort of, you know, the the least celebrated, and

1003
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 1: that's probably not fair. This was Craig Erickson was the quarterback.

1004
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:24,800
Speaker 1: It's the least celebrated, and yet in some ways it's it.

1005
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 1: When you look at that roster, it was just as

1006
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 1: deep with NFL talent as the eighty sevent team, the

1007
00:58:32,040 --> 00:58:37,560
Speaker 1: ninety one team, the ninety two team, or the one team.

1008
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 1: All right, enough of that, Let's do some Q and

1009
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: A from you, and I will limit the college football

1010
00:58:44,840 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 1: after this. You just gotta you gotta give me one

1011
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 1: more week man. They actually made the next all of

1012
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 1: my bloviating about the Hurricanes. And what's funny is I've

1013
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 1: gotten some emails from some of you who I think

1014
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 1: could have given two shits about college football before starting

1015
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 1: listening my podcasts, and you now become weirdly invested. Thank you,

1016
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:07,600
Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. You've sent some incredible notes, and

1017
00:59:07,640 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 1: it's so clear some of you you you seem to

1018
00:59:10,440 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 1: care because you know I care, and I know you

1019
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 1: really don't care, but that means something. So thank you

1020
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: and let me know when I should be rooting for

1021
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 1: your teams. I will do that for you, I promise.

1022
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 1: All Right, let's go to some Q and a some

1023
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 1: ass chuck ass chuck all right, Adam from DC rights

1024
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 1: listening to you discuss super Pac money and negative ads.

1025
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 1: I'm sure I am naive and I've had the had

1026
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:47,520
Speaker 1: this thought for a while, but in today's climate, what

1027
00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 1: it Candida gain any traction by just saying I will

1028
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 1: only talk about me and I'm not going to do

1029
00:59:51,600 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 1: negative ads. I've often thought doing so would be a breakthrough.

1030
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 1: Adam from DC and sticking with your college football theme,

1031
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 1: fire up chips, right, Look, you know you would hope

1032
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 1: that this would work. But there's a reason negative ads.

1033
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:11,360
Speaker 1: No everybody says they hate negative ads, everybody says they

1034
01:00:11,360 --> 01:00:14,479
Speaker 1: don't want negative ads, and yet negative ads work. Right,

1035
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 1: Just think about how social media works on your brain.

1036
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 1: Think about how if you've ever had a performance review

1037
01:00:22,880 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 1: from a boss and they've told you nine things you

1038
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 1: do well one thing that you can work on, and

1039
01:00:29,080 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 1: five more things that they love what you do. What's

1040
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:35,400
Speaker 1: the one thing you're going to remember the negative? It's

1041
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:39,440
Speaker 1: the human it's it's just the human brain. You know.

1042
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 1: We will process information. We will remember something in a

1043
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 1: negative context more than we'll remember something in a positive context.

1044
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:50,560
Speaker 1: Do I wish we were different than that? I do.

1045
01:00:52,160 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 1: Now here's what I would say to sort of take

1046
01:00:58,520 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 1: your idea and massage it a little bit. I think

1047
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:07,440
Speaker 1: the candidate that is willing to do their own attack

1048
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:12,920
Speaker 1: ads and not use third party nonsense, that might be

1049
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:19,640
Speaker 1: an interesting game changer, you know. So say, look, here's

1050
01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to respond to it. I Look, my opponent

1051
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 1: is saying some ridiculous stuff. Normally this is when you

1052
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:33,960
Speaker 1: have some dark money group from Americans for Loving America,

1053
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:37,439
Speaker 1: paid for by Americans for Loving America, who will tell

1054
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 1: you what a creeper, terrible person so and so it is.

1055
01:01:40,160 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 1: Here's what I'm gonna tell you. My opponent's not a

1056
01:01:42,760 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 1: terrible person. They just have terrible ideas. And let me

1057
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: tell you why this idea is terrible. Point being is,

1058
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:53,840
Speaker 1: I do think there is upside to owning your message,

1059
01:01:53,880 --> 01:01:59,600
Speaker 1: whether it's positive, or negative outsourcing. Negative I think is

1060
01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 1: something that is pays fewer and fewer dividends over time.

1061
01:02:04,440 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 1: And believe it or not, if you really want a

1062
01:02:07,680 --> 01:02:11,640
Speaker 1: message to penetrate about your political opponent, then have the

1063
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:14,480
Speaker 1: guts to do it yourself. And you're probably going to

1064
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 1: get more traction if you're willing to do it yourself,

1065
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:19,120
Speaker 1: because actually you'll get some earned media going, hey, it's

1066
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 1: kind of unusual, but at least this person's standing by

1067
01:02:21,920 --> 01:02:23,600
Speaker 1: their own negative ads. I mean, how many times do

1068
01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:26,440
Speaker 1: you see this construction of a negative ad where they'll have,

1069
01:02:26,720 --> 01:02:30,840
Speaker 1: you know, some anonymous voiceover say, you know, John SCHMENGHI

1070
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 1: does nothing but absorb special interest money, and then all

1071
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: of a sudden, Hi, I'm Jane Doe, and are you

1072
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:41,640
Speaker 1: tired of all this Washington nonsense? You're like, wait a minute,

1073
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 1: didn't you just create Washington nonsense with your terrible TV

1074
01:02:45,080 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 1: at you know? So that's what I think. I do

1075
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:51,600
Speaker 1: think maybe more authenticity in how and how your negative

1076
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 1: message is delivered might actually pay more dividends, and might

1077
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:57,760
Speaker 1: be more realistic and actually might actually cut down on

1078
01:02:57,800 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 1: the personalizing of the negativity so much. But I'm not

1079
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:06,080
Speaker 1: there on the larger idea that you have that somehow

1080
01:03:06,120 --> 01:03:09,040
Speaker 1: just people that have taken I'm not going to do this.

1081
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 1: I'm not going to do that. Your opponents will. Voters

1082
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 1: claim they like it, but they never reward the candidate

1083
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,960
Speaker 1: who does it. Next question comes from Mike Vera, and

1084
01:03:18,000 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 1: he asks do you think more traditional Republicans are missing

1085
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:22,600
Speaker 1: a chance to push back on Trump and articulate a

1086
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:25,560
Speaker 1: clear alternative vision for the party, one that rejects maga's

1087
01:03:25,560 --> 01:03:28,960
Speaker 1: reckless form policy, self enrichment, and big government impulses. Could

1088
01:03:29,000 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 1: someone stand up for the popular parts while denouncing the

1089
01:03:31,360 --> 01:03:34,240
Speaker 1: rest in Bill Biomanham for twenty twenty eight. Also, what

1090
01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 1: if Bobby Boden had left FSU for Alabama in the

1091
01:03:36,120 --> 01:03:38,640
Speaker 1: eighties or nineties? How might that have re shaped college football?

1092
01:03:39,080 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 1: That's a fun one if I'll get to the college

1093
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 1: football in a second. So this actually this question, and

1094
01:03:45,760 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 1: I'm glad I have it in here because it dovetails

1095
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 1: with the opening of this podcast for this episode. So

1096
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,840
Speaker 1: I don't think you can do it yet what you're suggesting,

1097
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 1: but I do think the appetite for this among Republicans

1098
01:04:04,000 --> 01:04:10,480
Speaker 1: could be greater if Democrats sweep the midterms. I think

1099
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 1: if Democrats sweep the midterms, there is going to be

1100
01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:17,760
Speaker 1: a belief that maybe it's time for an alternative to Mega.

1101
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 1: Maybe MAGA has punched itself out, maybe this is too

1102
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 1: exhausted and so, but you also get at something else.

1103
01:04:28,560 --> 01:04:33,000
Speaker 1: I do think, you know, I do think that a

1104
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:39,760
Speaker 1: successful pivot from Trump can't be backwards. You can't say

1105
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 1: we need to restore return That's not what voters know.

1106
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 1: Voters wanted. Look, they voted for Trump's disruption in twenty sixteen.

1107
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:54,200
Speaker 1: They brought him back because they didn't like what Biden did.

1108
01:04:54,200 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 1: It didn't necessarily means they loved what Trump did either,

1109
01:04:58,480 --> 01:05:03,200
Speaker 1: but what they did want was was disruption, not restoration.

1110
01:05:04,680 --> 01:05:11,640
Speaker 1: So I think the first successful post Mega post Trump

1111
01:05:11,680 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 1: message will be similar to how you outline it, which

1112
01:05:15,240 --> 01:05:17,760
Speaker 1: is I don't think, you know, which is sort of like,

1113
01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:22,400
Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump when he came down that escalator

1114
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:25,400
Speaker 1: was a breath of fresh air that the conservative movement needed.

1115
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:29,800
Speaker 1: But like any political movement, it's in over its head

1116
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:32,600
Speaker 1: on some things, and it's and it's celebrating some things

1117
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 1: that are just not good for the country, like this

1118
01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:40,800
Speaker 1: reckless form policy. You know, while I like the President's disruption.

1119
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 1: I didn't like the self enrichment. I think you can

1120
01:05:44,600 --> 01:05:48,240
Speaker 1: if you if because you're you're still going to have

1121
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:51,960
Speaker 1: a substantial number of base Republican voters or aren't going

1122
01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:55,240
Speaker 1: to be ready to outright reject the last twelve years

1123
01:05:55,240 --> 01:05:58,919
Speaker 1: of MEGA, but they're going to look for somebody who

1124
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:04,560
Speaker 1: is respectful of the MAGA movement but ready to ready

1125
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 1: to go forward or turn the page in some form

1126
01:06:07,080 --> 01:06:10,000
Speaker 1: or another. So I do think in twenty eight now,

1127
01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:15,440
Speaker 1: I actually think your advice should be what It's what

1128
01:06:15,520 --> 01:06:18,360
Speaker 1: I would do if I were John Cornyn, but he's

1129
01:06:18,440 --> 01:06:21,120
Speaker 1: kind of stuck in a primary at the moment. It's

1130
01:06:21,160 --> 01:06:23,240
Speaker 1: what I think about doing if I were Dan Sullivan

1131
01:06:23,280 --> 01:06:29,640
Speaker 1: in Alaska and he's I'm curious, you know, if a

1132
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 1: Republican chooses to go down that road, is Trump going

1133
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:36,960
Speaker 1: to punish him? I am in search of the twenty

1134
01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:39,720
Speaker 1: six Republican that attempts to triangulate Trump a little bit

1135
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 1: versus trying so too hard to school, you know, hug Trump.

1136
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:52,600
Speaker 1: Like in theory. Cornyn has the resume to do it,

1137
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 1: but he is so in need of Trump to potentially

1138
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: get him out of this Ken Paxton box that he

1139
01:07:00,560 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 1: that he's not ready to implement it. And yet the

1140
01:07:04,040 --> 01:07:06,560
Speaker 1: you know, this is where Cornyn's in such a such

1141
01:07:06,560 --> 01:07:10,000
Speaker 1: a box, right. You know, the most vulnerable part of

1142
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:13,720
Speaker 1: Ken Paxton is his corruption. But how do you separate

1143
01:07:13,760 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 1: Paxton corruption from Trump corruption? And it's you know, I

1144
01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:23,080
Speaker 1: can't wait to hear what John Cornyn has to say

1145
01:07:23,080 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 1: about Republican politics after he's out of Republican politics. And

1146
01:07:26,600 --> 01:07:28,760
Speaker 1: I'm just going to leave it at that. I forgot

1147
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:32,440
Speaker 1: about the Bobby Boden. Bobby Bobben and Alabama. What does

1148
01:07:32,480 --> 01:07:36,040
Speaker 1: it mean. It means Alabama when it plays for more

1149
01:07:36,080 --> 01:07:38,640
Speaker 1: than one national title in the nineties, That's what it means.

1150
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:43,120
Speaker 1: That was a real possibility. I believe before it was

1151
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 1: before the hire of Gene Stallings when they brought Stallings

1152
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 1: was sort of a bear guy that they brought back

1153
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:54,720
Speaker 1: and he got them one title in a in a

1154
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 1: game that they Miami just was little Mimmy was too

1155
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:02,480
Speaker 1: cocky for their for their own for themselves in ninety

1156
01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:05,760
Speaker 1: two when they lost that game in the Sugar Bowl.

1157
01:08:06,040 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 1: But I believe it was before the Stallings hire that

1158
01:08:10,200 --> 01:08:14,080
Speaker 1: they really and and I think if you go back,

1159
01:08:14,160 --> 01:08:17,360
Speaker 1: if you talk to old time FSU folks. I think

1160
01:08:17,400 --> 01:08:20,519
Speaker 1: they thought Goden was gone, right, that this was going

1161
01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:27,040
Speaker 1: to happen, and you know, the you know Alabama and

1162
01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 1: it was just like Notre Dame, those were just over here.

1163
01:08:29,400 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 1: And even though it had been a while at the

1164
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:34,880
Speaker 1: time when Stallings gets hired, I think it had been

1165
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 1: at least over a decade since Alabama last was relevant.

1166
01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:41,720
Speaker 1: Bear Bryan, I think retired in eighty two, if I'm

1167
01:08:41,760 --> 01:08:45,720
Speaker 1: not mistaken, dies within months of retiring, and then they

1168
01:08:45,760 --> 01:08:47,960
Speaker 1: went that rape. They hire former New York Giants coach

1169
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:52,240
Speaker 1: Ray Perkins, right, and that didn't go so well. I

1170
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:55,639
Speaker 1: think if he joins, if he takes that Alabama job right,

1171
01:08:55,760 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 1: because at the time, Florida State couldn't break through. They

1172
01:08:59,040 --> 01:09:01,439
Speaker 1: were always sort of you know, either getting inched out,

1173
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:04,479
Speaker 1: edged out by Miami or edged out by Notre Dame.

1174
01:09:05,439 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 1: And so with the resources that Alabama had, you know,

1175
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:12,360
Speaker 1: the ease back then, the SEC was not that great.

1176
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:15,120
Speaker 1: It was kind of a you know two or three

1177
01:09:15,120 --> 01:09:19,080
Speaker 1: teen conference at best, smaller conference too, by the way,

1178
01:09:19,400 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 1: So there was you know, he was going to get

1179
01:09:21,920 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 1: to that Sugar Bowl, which would have meant playing for titles.

1180
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:29,120
Speaker 1: So probably means Alabama has two more national titles because

1181
01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:31,400
Speaker 1: how much how many to get at Florida State by

1182
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 1: staying in Florida State. He got two right, the ninety

1183
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:38,599
Speaker 1: three and ninety nine. So yeah, my guess is those

1184
01:09:38,640 --> 01:09:42,760
Speaker 1: two national titles go to Alabama. And more importantly, it's

1185
01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:46,880
Speaker 1: possible Florida State football is never Florida State football, right,

1186
01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:50,200
Speaker 1: and it's good in the long run for Florida State football.

1187
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 1: That obviously that Bowden chose to stay. So there's there's

1188
01:09:53,240 --> 01:09:57,400
Speaker 1: my take on where that would head. All right, Now,

1189
01:09:57,520 --> 01:09:59,240
Speaker 1: let me get from John from Princeton, Big Fans and

1190
01:09:59,280 --> 01:10:01,519
Speaker 1: s starco Jiant. It's a Democrat. I feel the party

1191
01:10:01,520 --> 01:10:04,240
Speaker 1: has struggled to choose strong leaders. You think Biden catered

1192
01:10:04,280 --> 01:10:06,320
Speaker 1: too much to the far left, and if so, did

1193
01:10:06,320 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: that help hurt the party's appeal to blue collar voters.

1194
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:13,880
Speaker 1: I think that Biden and by extension, his chief of

1195
01:10:13,920 --> 01:10:20,519
Speaker 1: staff Ron Klain, mistaken online activism for where the base was.

1196
01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:23,880
Speaker 1: I think it was a miscalculation. I think they thought

1197
01:10:24,200 --> 01:10:26,559
Speaker 1: that what they were seeing online, what they were seeing

1198
01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:29,439
Speaker 1: in the activist community was really directionally where the party

1199
01:10:29,479 --> 01:10:33,120
Speaker 1: was headed. I think this is I think it didn't

1200
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:36,519
Speaker 1: help that Biden didn't really run in a primary, didn't

1201
01:10:36,560 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 1: really interact much with voters because of COVID and because

1202
01:10:40,320 --> 01:10:42,479
Speaker 1: of how quickly the primary sort of shut down there

1203
01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:46,160
Speaker 1: after the Clyburn endorsement. COVID hits and everybody just sort

1204
01:10:46,160 --> 01:10:48,720
Speaker 1: of drops out. So I think he didn't have a

1205
01:10:48,760 --> 01:10:51,640
Speaker 1: feel for the voter. And that's not just him. I

1206
01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:54,479
Speaker 1: think Trump didn't either. I think when you just you

1207
01:10:55,120 --> 01:10:58,800
Speaker 1: had to run virtually and well virtually, it felt as

1208
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:01,760
Speaker 1: if the the Democrats have moved much further to the

1209
01:11:01,840 --> 01:11:04,880
Speaker 1: left than they actually did, so I think that had

1210
01:11:04,920 --> 01:11:08,200
Speaker 1: something to do with it. But I absolutely look, Biden

1211
01:11:08,240 --> 01:11:12,840
Speaker 1: got captured by the left. It wasn't Biden's administration. He

1212
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:17,479
Speaker 1: he used Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders to make staffing decisions, which,

1213
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:21,400
Speaker 1: you know, personnel is policy, personnel is ideology. You know

1214
01:11:21,439 --> 01:11:25,479
Speaker 1: who you put there, And so he himself, you know,

1215
01:11:26,240 --> 01:11:28,360
Speaker 1: you know, the theory of Biden was to be the moderate.

1216
01:11:29,600 --> 01:11:33,280
Speaker 1: That's why he won both the primary and that's why

1217
01:11:33,280 --> 01:11:36,600
Speaker 1: he won the general. But he governed as if he

1218
01:11:36,720 --> 01:11:39,400
Speaker 1: thought the party had m moved much further to the

1219
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:42,240
Speaker 1: left than they did, and I think that that's that's

1220
01:11:42,280 --> 01:11:46,439
Speaker 1: why they we got a second Donald Trump term pure

1221
01:11:46,439 --> 01:11:52,439
Speaker 1: and simple. All right, This comes from Graham. With the

1222
01:11:52,479 --> 01:11:55,040
Speaker 1: closing of the CPB and the zeroing out of public

1223
01:11:55,120 --> 01:11:59,439
Speaker 1: funding corporation of public broadcasting, how is public media likely

1224
01:11:59,479 --> 01:12:01,240
Speaker 1: to continue on? You have a ton of local stations

1225
01:12:01,240 --> 01:12:04,720
Speaker 1: that still exists, correct, Will public media arise from the ashes? Well?

1226
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:08,000
Speaker 1: I think it will. I think you're going to see.

1227
01:12:08,120 --> 01:12:14,519
Speaker 1: My guess is you're going to see. All right, I'm

1228
01:12:14,520 --> 01:12:17,920
Speaker 1: gonna put this in air quotes, good private equity help.

1229
01:12:19,840 --> 01:12:22,599
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's good, right. I don't know

1230
01:12:22,640 --> 01:12:25,760
Speaker 1: if there's going to be demands for efficiencies that end

1231
01:12:25,840 --> 01:12:32,439
Speaker 1: up hurting. But the the fact that so many local

1232
01:12:33,080 --> 01:12:36,479
Speaker 1: radio stations, local media are so necessary in so many

1233
01:12:36,560 --> 01:12:41,120
Speaker 1: rural parts. I think the the collection at least on

1234
01:12:41,160 --> 01:12:44,080
Speaker 1: the on the on the MPR side of things, I

1235
01:12:44,080 --> 01:12:47,520
Speaker 1: think has got more value than frankly on the television

1236
01:12:47,560 --> 01:12:50,800
Speaker 1: side of things, on the video side of things. On

1237
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:55,400
Speaker 1: that front, so I could see. I do think you're

1238
01:12:55,400 --> 01:12:58,879
Speaker 1: going to see more public private If we want public

1239
01:12:58,960 --> 01:13:06,439
Speaker 1: media to survive, that some sort of public private private

1240
01:13:06,520 --> 01:13:12,320
Speaker 1: equity partnership is coming in some form or another. Maybe

1241
01:13:13,000 --> 01:13:16,400
Speaker 1: it serves as a lifeline, Maybe a democratic Congress helps

1242
01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:19,800
Speaker 1: to create some sort of private equity tax break that

1243
01:13:19,920 --> 01:13:25,240
Speaker 1: encourages investment in local media. You know. I know, in

1244
01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:28,360
Speaker 1: my attempts to try to see to try to improve

1245
01:13:28,439 --> 01:13:31,679
Speaker 1: and get some local media startups off the ground, coming

1246
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:35,840
Speaker 1: up with some tax incentive for businesses you know who

1247
01:13:35,920 --> 01:13:38,400
Speaker 1: advertise in local media get a tax break. Maybe they

1248
01:13:38,439 --> 01:13:42,439
Speaker 1: you know, get different things where you create in the

1249
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:49,280
Speaker 1: same way, you try to help a a a a

1250
01:13:49,360 --> 01:13:52,439
Speaker 1: lesser developed part of a city, and you create sort

1251
01:13:52,479 --> 01:13:54,600
Speaker 1: of an empowerment zone where it's a tax rezone in

1252
01:13:54,760 --> 01:13:58,479
Speaker 1: order to encourage business to come in because they get

1253
01:13:58,479 --> 01:14:00,120
Speaker 1: a tax break if they're willing to come in. And

1254
01:14:01,080 --> 01:14:05,200
Speaker 1: I think that the next thing, the most realistic legislation

1255
01:14:05,280 --> 01:14:07,519
Speaker 1: you can get passed, either on a state or federal level,

1256
01:14:08,400 --> 01:14:12,160
Speaker 1: are tax incentives to help local media get up off

1257
01:14:12,160 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 1: the ground. So I could I sort of see that

1258
01:14:17,160 --> 01:14:20,400
Speaker 1: as the direction. I don't think it's where advocates of

1259
01:14:20,400 --> 01:14:22,639
Speaker 1: public media want to go right now, but I think

1260
01:14:22,680 --> 01:14:26,519
Speaker 1: that's where it's going to end up going. All right,

1261
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:28,519
Speaker 1: next one is anonymous, and I think I'm going to

1262
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:31,400
Speaker 1: make this the last, the last question. This will be

1263
01:14:31,439 --> 01:14:34,519
Speaker 1: the fifth. Ye We'll go this plus one more. I

1264
01:14:34,600 --> 01:14:37,600
Speaker 1: like the Puerto Rico question. That's next. All right, this

1265
01:14:37,640 --> 01:14:39,680
Speaker 1: comes from anonymous Hey Congratchen, you'r kane from an Ole

1266
01:14:39,680 --> 01:14:41,920
Speaker 1: miss lum who made the trip to Glendale painful as

1267
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:44,120
Speaker 1: it is, God bless you. I'll admit the better team. One.

1268
01:14:44,160 --> 01:14:46,880
Speaker 1: My question is about Mississippi's US Senate race. Is there

1269
01:14:46,880 --> 01:14:49,479
Speaker 1: any realistic path for a Democrat? Given the states racial

1270
01:14:49,479 --> 01:14:53,479
Speaker 1: polarization and history of strong Republican performances even against modern Democrats,

1271
01:14:53,479 --> 01:14:56,120
Speaker 1: I find the optimism hard to buy. Would love to

1272
01:14:56,160 --> 01:15:00,280
Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. Well, Look, the whole argument of about

1273
01:15:00,560 --> 01:15:07,560
Speaker 1: Mississippi being competitive really is a voter registration analysis. The

1274
01:15:08,240 --> 01:15:11,720
Speaker 1: number of This is a state that the majority of

1275
01:15:12,320 --> 01:15:15,759
Speaker 1: registered voters could easily be African American. But that isn't

1276
01:15:15,760 --> 01:15:19,200
Speaker 1: the case. I think that there is a lot of

1277
01:15:19,400 --> 01:15:25,480
Speaker 1: unregistered Mississippi voters out there, and that a more coordinated

1278
01:15:25,960 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 1: effort that took place four years. You can't just parachute

1279
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:33,400
Speaker 1: in and out. So this is why. But the reason

1280
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:38,200
Speaker 1: there's always been this what about Mississippi? Among Democrats, there's

1281
01:15:38,200 --> 01:15:40,960
Speaker 1: always been this what about Mississippi? Not what you don't

1282
01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:44,200
Speaker 1: you know, you're not making the realistic argument about Alabama

1283
01:15:44,880 --> 01:15:47,800
Speaker 1: even but to a lesser extent, South Carolina is in

1284
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:52,519
Speaker 1: the same vote. There is a lot of unregistered or

1285
01:15:52,800 --> 01:15:56,799
Speaker 1: unactivated might be a better term for it, African American

1286
01:15:56,880 --> 01:16:00,240
Speaker 1: voters and rural parts of Mississippi and South Carolina who

1287
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:02,639
Speaker 1: the Party does a poor job of communicating with. Right,

1288
01:16:02,960 --> 01:16:06,439
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's rural voter problem isn't just a white

1289
01:16:06,520 --> 01:16:09,879
Speaker 1: rural voter. It's a Latino rural voter problem in Texas,

1290
01:16:09,920 --> 01:16:12,759
Speaker 1: and it's a black rural voter problem in North Carolina,

1291
01:16:12,800 --> 01:16:18,679
Speaker 1: South Carolina, Mississippi, and Alabama. And so there is that's

1292
01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:27,679
Speaker 1: the argument you're right in that we've seen. We've seen

1293
01:16:27,760 --> 01:16:32,600
Speaker 1: sort of both theories tested. Right, the moderate white Democrat,

1294
01:16:33,160 --> 01:16:36,720
Speaker 1: Presley Right runs for governor. You know, it's competitive, and

1295
01:16:36,920 --> 01:16:39,479
Speaker 1: you know, because there's this idea if you can just

1296
01:16:39,640 --> 01:16:43,040
Speaker 1: break get into the mid twenties of the white vote,

1297
01:16:43,200 --> 01:16:45,040
Speaker 1: you know, if you can break the teens and get

1298
01:16:45,040 --> 01:16:48,000
Speaker 1: into the mid twenties of the white vote, have a

1299
01:16:48,120 --> 01:16:51,280
Speaker 1: high African American turnout and win those by huge numbers

1300
01:16:51,320 --> 01:16:55,360
Speaker 1: seventy you know, sixty seventy percent there that that you

1301
01:16:55,400 --> 01:17:00,439
Speaker 1: can make the math work, or do you get an

1302
01:17:00,479 --> 01:17:03,880
Speaker 1: African American nominee like Mike Guespie, who we've seen that

1303
01:17:04,000 --> 01:17:09,479
Speaker 1: experiment in Mississippi. You know, can he so maximize turnout

1304
01:17:09,479 --> 01:17:12,760
Speaker 1: among African Americans that it can overcome having a white

1305
01:17:12,840 --> 01:17:15,839
Speaker 1: vote share that's in the teen seventeen, eighteen nineteen percent.

1306
01:17:18,400 --> 01:17:23,760
Speaker 1: You know there, there's yet to be quite the goldilocks.

1307
01:17:24,160 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 1: You know, the last time Democrats were able to win

1308
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:29,680
Speaker 1: some statewide races for governor there in the state, or

1309
01:17:29,680 --> 01:17:33,200
Speaker 1: even go way back and Senate, it's back when Democrats

1310
01:17:33,200 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 1: did better with the white vote. So, you know, but

1311
01:17:37,360 --> 01:17:40,120
Speaker 1: there are two you know, in this case in Mississippi,

1312
01:17:40,120 --> 01:17:47,480
Speaker 1: there are two two you know, sort of two metrics

1313
01:17:47,520 --> 01:17:50,240
Speaker 1: to try to try to manipulate here if you're a

1314
01:17:50,240 --> 01:17:54,320
Speaker 1: campaign operative. One is to supercharge voter registration in rural

1315
01:17:54,360 --> 01:17:58,120
Speaker 1: African American communities and give them a reason to turn out.

1316
01:17:58,960 --> 01:18:05,400
Speaker 1: And the other is to do that plus find a

1317
01:18:05,439 --> 01:18:12,519
Speaker 1: moderate white Democrat that doesn't that can appeal to Chamber

1318
01:18:12,560 --> 01:18:18,719
Speaker 1: of commerce type Republicans, right basically you know, the Roger

1319
01:18:18,800 --> 01:18:26,200
Speaker 1: Wicker wing of the party, you know, somewhat. So look,

1320
01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:28,040
Speaker 1: I'm not a believer that you can do. You know,

1321
01:18:28,880 --> 01:18:33,280
Speaker 1: Georgia didn't, wasn't one cycle. Right Democrats started working on

1322
01:18:33,400 --> 01:18:39,360
Speaker 1: Georgia when Barack Obama did shockingly well in eight and

1323
01:18:39,400 --> 01:18:42,160
Speaker 1: in twelve he came up short without a lot of

1324
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:45,000
Speaker 1: camp but they did. They started the voter registration. Then

1325
01:18:45,040 --> 01:18:48,479
Speaker 1: Stacy Abrams and her organization got more involved. So it's

1326
01:18:48,520 --> 01:18:51,040
Speaker 1: it's a I would argue, and this is why the

1327
01:18:51,120 --> 01:18:54,640
Speaker 1: leadership of the DNC has just been such a catastrophe.

1328
01:18:54,680 --> 01:18:58,400
Speaker 1: For the last two decades. Generally, which is the DNC

1329
01:18:58,560 --> 01:19:01,559
Speaker 1: has been focused on just how do you succeed in

1330
01:19:01,600 --> 01:19:04,519
Speaker 1: the seven swing states, eight swing states, six swing states,

1331
01:19:04,520 --> 01:19:08,560
Speaker 1: whatever it is, and everything else is less of a priority.

1332
01:19:09,360 --> 01:19:12,000
Speaker 1: There has never been any medium or long term thinking

1333
01:19:12,120 --> 01:19:16,000
Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side of the of the I'm not

1334
01:19:16,000 --> 01:19:18,760
Speaker 1: saying there aren't individuals who have been that way, but

1335
01:19:18,880 --> 01:19:22,080
Speaker 1: there is Republicans who think more long term and think

1336
01:19:22,080 --> 01:19:25,719
Speaker 1: about sort of over time, how do they make progress

1337
01:19:25,720 --> 01:19:29,040
Speaker 1: where over time they can put a state in play.

1338
01:19:29,080 --> 01:19:32,120
Speaker 1: Minnesota has been a big project for them for quite

1339
01:19:32,120 --> 01:19:35,760
Speaker 1: some time, and I think they're you know, there's a

1340
01:19:35,800 --> 01:19:38,320
Speaker 1: lot of crazy happening right now in Minnesota, and it's

1341
01:19:38,360 --> 01:19:40,639
Speaker 1: going to be interesting to see whether this is at

1342
01:19:40,640 --> 01:19:44,560
Speaker 1: all helped the Republican party's ability to win statewide in

1343
01:19:44,640 --> 01:19:49,680
Speaker 1: that state or not. But that's the thesis behind Mississippi,

1344
01:19:49,760 --> 01:19:54,440
Speaker 1: that it is a voter registration that if you improved

1345
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:58,920
Speaker 1: organizing in voter registration, then then suddenly and then once

1346
01:19:58,960 --> 01:20:02,080
Speaker 1: you're competitive and it's evenly competitive, well then it may

1347
01:20:02,120 --> 01:20:05,240
Speaker 1: open the door to a handful more of potential persuadable voters.

1348
01:20:07,240 --> 01:20:09,400
Speaker 1: Last question comes from Chewy from perto Rico. He sayscheers

1349
01:20:09,479 --> 01:20:11,679
Speaker 1: chuck im Chewy from San Juan. One of the most

1350
01:20:11,760 --> 01:20:15,719
Speaker 1: unsettling insights from Nuremberg twenty twenty five is doctor Douglas

1351
01:20:15,800 --> 01:20:20,080
Speaker 1: Kelly's focus on how systems enable destructive behavior. I watched Nurmberg.

1352
01:20:20,160 --> 01:20:23,360
Speaker 1: It was that's a that's an incredible insight. It was

1353
01:20:23,400 --> 01:20:26,320
Speaker 1: about how the system did it and how people fall

1354
01:20:26,320 --> 01:20:28,800
Speaker 1: into the system, not who the individuals are, but how

1355
01:20:28,880 --> 01:20:32,200
Speaker 1: institutions rationalize and normalize misconduct. I think I know where

1356
01:20:32,200 --> 01:20:34,720
Speaker 1: you're going. His work is a warning that democracies don't

1357
01:20:34,720 --> 01:20:37,280
Speaker 1: collapse from a single active evil, but from the gradual

1358
01:20:37,320 --> 01:20:39,920
Speaker 1: erosion of standards and accountability. So my question is, are

1359
01:20:39,920 --> 01:20:43,759
Speaker 1: we still capable of recognizing normalization itself as a warning

1360
01:20:43,760 --> 01:20:46,720
Speaker 1: sign in leadership or become so conditioned to risk that

1361
01:20:46,800 --> 01:20:51,720
Speaker 1: we only recognize failure once it's irreversible. Man, That is

1362
01:20:51,439 --> 01:20:55,000
Speaker 1: that is that is a deep question. I don't No,

1363
01:20:55,120 --> 01:20:57,280
Speaker 1: there's no right answer yet. Well, there is a right answer,

1364
01:20:57,360 --> 01:20:59,720
Speaker 1: I think. I think I'm going to lean on the

1365
01:20:59,720 --> 01:21:03,000
Speaker 1: side of hope that we can recognize it. And let

1366
01:21:03,040 --> 01:21:06,200
Speaker 1: me end with where I began, which was the polling

1367
01:21:06,320 --> 01:21:08,240
Speaker 1: that we got, the first round of polling that we

1368
01:21:08,320 --> 01:21:11,719
Speaker 1: got in response to the Minneapolis shooting, where a strong

1369
01:21:11,800 --> 01:21:16,559
Speaker 1: majority of voters said it was not justified. I think

1370
01:21:16,600 --> 01:21:21,000
Speaker 1: if these voters understood how the recruiting process for ice

1371
01:21:21,080 --> 01:21:27,559
Speaker 1: officers was done, coupled with the lack of training that's

1372
01:21:27,600 --> 01:21:32,120
Speaker 1: been given to them, coupled with the propaganda that is

1373
01:21:32,320 --> 01:21:37,320
Speaker 1: delivered internally to these officers about the neighborhoods they're going

1374
01:21:39,520 --> 01:21:44,160
Speaker 1: tossing in the intentional targeting of certain communities for political reasons,

1375
01:21:44,160 --> 01:21:49,599
Speaker 1: not necessarily for safety and security reasons, and you create

1376
01:21:49,640 --> 01:21:53,240
Speaker 1: the situation that you created in Minneapolis that costs Renee

1377
01:21:53,240 --> 01:22:00,920
Speaker 1: Good her life and so Chewey. I will just simply say,

1378
01:22:02,040 --> 01:22:06,160
Speaker 1: I think your question is a comment, and it's a

1379
01:22:06,240 --> 01:22:10,040
Speaker 1: very important one. It's a very important piece of commentary

1380
01:22:10,080 --> 01:22:13,680
Speaker 1: because it's a point I was trying to make earlier

1381
01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:19,160
Speaker 1: on one of my YouTube updates, which was ICE isn't

1382
01:22:19,160 --> 01:22:22,200
Speaker 1: the problem. It's the people and how they're being trained

1383
01:22:22,360 --> 01:22:25,640
Speaker 1: that's the problem. And I am not going to go

1384
01:22:25,720 --> 01:22:32,040
Speaker 1: down the abolished ICE road personally, because in theory, we

1385
01:22:32,080 --> 01:22:36,640
Speaker 1: need immigration control, we need border patrol, we need customs.

1386
01:22:36,960 --> 01:22:39,760
Speaker 1: You know, all of that is a fact. What we

1387
01:22:39,880 --> 01:22:45,600
Speaker 1: need is better leadership and better training. And so the

1388
01:22:45,720 --> 01:22:49,040
Speaker 1: question then, to sort of reword your last question, are

1389
01:22:49,080 --> 01:22:55,840
Speaker 1: we capable of seeing that? I don't know, sadly that

1390
01:22:56,000 --> 01:22:58,320
Speaker 1: what I just laid out about sort of how we

1391
01:22:58,400 --> 01:23:04,120
Speaker 1: got there not seen a in a larger media context. Right,

1392
01:23:04,640 --> 01:23:06,720
Speaker 1: I've done it. I've worked really hard to make sure

1393
01:23:06,720 --> 01:23:10,280
Speaker 1: people understood this didn't happen in a vacuum. Right. The

1394
01:23:10,400 --> 01:23:14,880
Speaker 1: way they recruited ICE officers guaranteed that they were going

1395
01:23:14,920 --> 01:23:20,960
Speaker 1: to recruit more hotheads than de escalators, and that was

1396
01:23:21,000 --> 01:23:25,800
Speaker 1: a recipe for trouble. Some people think that's a bug

1397
01:23:25,840 --> 01:23:29,240
Speaker 1: in the system. I fear others in and around that

1398
01:23:29,280 --> 01:23:35,960
Speaker 1: West wing think it's a feature. And that's you know

1399
01:23:36,080 --> 01:23:38,559
Speaker 1: that that to me is when you just brought up

1400
01:23:38,640 --> 01:23:41,280
Speaker 1: Nurmberg and I haven't. I haven't brought this up. I've

1401
01:23:41,640 --> 01:23:44,000
Speaker 1: I've binged it probably like many of you already have.

1402
01:23:44,120 --> 01:23:48,240
Speaker 1: On on Netflix. I sort of consume so much. I'm

1403
01:23:48,800 --> 01:23:51,200
Speaker 1: kind of like a generic middle aged white guy. I

1404
01:23:51,280 --> 01:23:55,280
Speaker 1: will consume me some Nazi History channel stuff all the time, right,

1405
01:23:55,520 --> 01:24:00,559
Speaker 1: I fall into that. I fall into that stereotype, and

1406
01:24:00,840 --> 01:24:03,720
Speaker 1: so I consume Nurremberg. By the way, if you're going

1407
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:08,120
Speaker 1: down that Netflix road, the Circle of Evil eight part

1408
01:24:08,120 --> 01:24:11,479
Speaker 1: doc about the people around Hitler who please watch it.

1409
01:24:11,479 --> 01:24:18,240
Speaker 1: It's amazing and more importantly, you'll find yourself, hey, that

1410
01:24:18,320 --> 01:24:21,479
Speaker 1: person is this anyway? You know what you'll end up doing.

1411
01:24:21,520 --> 01:24:24,040
Speaker 1: I'm not going to further go down further. I'll just

1412
01:24:24,280 --> 01:24:28,400
Speaker 1: lean hard into into that. But there's there's definitely more

1413
01:24:28,439 --> 01:24:32,719
Speaker 1: than one character in hitler Circle of Evil that looks

1414
01:24:32,800 --> 01:24:36,920
Speaker 1: quite familiar in today's politics. So on that havy note,

1415
01:24:37,600 --> 01:24:39,680
Speaker 1: why don't we make that the end of this episode?

1416
01:24:40,400 --> 01:24:43,719
Speaker 1: Terrific questions? Thank you? Remember ask Chuck at Thechuck podcast

1417
01:24:43,760 --> 01:24:46,479
Speaker 1: dot com. That's how you get a question asked, Leave

1418
01:24:46,520 --> 01:24:49,080
Speaker 1: a comment somewhere if you'd like to. We do monitor

1419
01:24:49,200 --> 01:24:52,559
Speaker 1: that as best we can. We love our YouTubers, We

1420
01:24:52,640 --> 01:24:54,920
Speaker 1: love the commentary We get there, even the ones that

1421
01:24:55,320 --> 01:24:57,640
Speaker 1: you know, we don't love the trolls, but there's the

1422
01:24:57,680 --> 01:25:01,479
Speaker 1: trolls are fewered far between. You know you are so

1423
01:25:01,600 --> 01:25:03,600
Speaker 1: thank you for that. And I will see you in

1424
01:25:03,640 --> 01:25:07,760
Speaker 1: twenty four hours mmmm