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Speaker 2: Jim Jordan fails again. Welcome to the fastest show in politics,
Speaker 2: as the Republican from Ohio falls short of the votes
Speaker 2: needed to become Speaker of the House in a second
Speaker 2: round that is just now ending. We're joined ahead by
Speaker 2: Congressman Seth Moulton, the Democrat from Massachusetts, with his view
Speaker 2: on the role that Democrats may play in resolving all
Speaker 2: of this, what it means for funding for Israel and
Speaker 2: the US strategy in the Middle East, with insights today
Speaker 2: and analysis from our signature panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Gdi Shanzano are with us for the hour,
Speaker 2: so let's get right to it as we join you
Speaker 2: live from Washington, and with me at the table is
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davis. And Laura, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you. Thanks for coming in at a very busy
Speaker 2: mon This is just resolving now on the House floor,
Speaker 2: and it appears Jim Jordan is having a worse day
Speaker 2: today than he did yesterday. Twenty two members of the
Speaker 2: Republican Conference voting for someone other than Jim Jordan. Is
Speaker 2: his nomination or trajectory for the speakership dead.
Speaker 3: It is looking like it is heading that way. He
Speaker 3: came off the floor and didn't say what he would
Speaker 3: do in terms of future plans. He did convince a
Speaker 3: couple members to vote for him, but net there were
Speaker 3: more that voted against him this time, so things are
Speaker 3: not trending in the right direction. The real question is
Speaker 3: if not Jordan, then who. There's other names that have
Speaker 3: been floated out there, Kevin Hearn as one example. But
Speaker 3: one of the factions we really see hardening against really
Speaker 3: any Republican is a lot of New York lawmakers are
Speaker 3: banding together and saying we're not going to support anyone
Speaker 3: that doesn't agree with expanding the salt the state and
Speaker 3: local tax deduction, which is a total blast in the past.
Speaker 2: Kind of about a.
Speaker 3: Right field, but this has been a long standing issue
Speaker 3: in the House in these high tax areas, you know,
Speaker 3: southern California, New York City area, I remember those. Those
Speaker 3: are the areas that make the majority for the House
Speaker 3: for whichever party's in charge, and they really like this
Speaker 3: tax deduction, very important to a lot of Bloomberg viewers.
Speaker 2: And readers as well all the time.
Speaker 3: So this is kind of becoming the undercurrent of you know,
Speaker 3: who can be speaker, You got to support this wonky
Speaker 3: tax deduction.
Speaker 2: Wow, if it comes down to salt, that is kind
Speaker 2: of funny considering the level of dysfunction that we're witnessing
Speaker 2: right now. To your point, though, if it's not Jim Jordan,
Speaker 2: who is he going to get a third round, a
Speaker 2: fourth round? How much patience is there to keep doing this.
Speaker 3: The reason there were so much patients with McCarthy is
Speaker 3: because they one, he showed progress on every step. He
Speaker 3: also had a lot of good will built up on
Speaker 3: the party. He had raised money for a lot of
Speaker 3: these people, Jim Jordan, and frankly, any other person that
Speaker 3: could be put up doesn't have that kind of same
Speaker 3: respect among the base of the party and so there's
Speaker 3: less likely to be demand to go, you know, do
Speaker 3: dozens of votes. So we'll see, the House is not
Speaker 3: yet annound if they're going to hold a third vote
Speaker 3: or if someone else is going to jump in the race.
Speaker 3: It's very up in the.
Speaker 4: Air right now.
Speaker 2: It's totally up in the early Even lawmakers that we're
Speaker 2: speaking with off the record have no apparent idea of
Speaker 2: what's going to come next, which has been the case
Speaker 2: for days. Lord, it's kind of an incredible environment that
Speaker 2: we're in here as we then consider the next option,
Speaker 2: which is going with what you got Patrick McHenry Speaker
Speaker 2: pro tem. The idea would be to make him, I
Speaker 2: guess formally elect him as Speaker pro ten, which would
Speaker 2: give him the effective powers of a full blown speaker.
Speaker 2: That would take some Democrats to make it happen, though,
Speaker 2: wouldn't it.
Speaker 3: It would, And one of the things that's being discussed
Speaker 3: right now is, you know, how long would he have
Speaker 3: the more full powers. Of course, you know, the government
Speaker 3: is set to shut down a month from today, so
Speaker 3: that's a key date that people are looking at. There's
Speaker 3: also the White House ascending over Israel Ukraine from a
Speaker 3: package of aid later this week that they're expecting, so
Speaker 3: there's a lot of stuff on their plate. But Democrats
Speaker 3: are going to want something in return in order to
Speaker 3: vote to put up the votes to support McHenry. There
Speaker 3: are certain things that they could you know that McHenry
Speaker 3: could offer, you know, bring up certain bills. You know,
Speaker 3: Ukraine could be that they play here. But there's things
Speaker 3: that they that they want that they're not going to get.
Speaker 3: You know, Democrats are not going to get more seats
Speaker 3: on various committees. You're not going to get a larger budget.
Speaker 3: Those are the kind of things and it just will
Speaker 3: depend away on you know, will Democrats get enough to
Speaker 3: h to have ten members or so go ahead and
Speaker 3: cross the aisle.
Speaker 2: Amazing stuff. I appreciate your joining today, Laura. Next time
Speaker 2: we speak, I suspect everything will have changed, because that's
Speaker 2: the routine that we're getting used to here. She's Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Politics editor and whether us here live on Bloomberg Sound On.
Speaker 2: Great to have you, Laura, and thank you as we
Speaker 2: ad the voice of Congressman Seth Moulton. Even with the
Speaker 2: action happening on the House floor, the Democrat from Massachusetts
Speaker 2: is taking some time for us right now. Congressman, it's
Speaker 2: good to see you. I guess i'll pick up here.
Speaker 2: There a lot of things I want to ask you
Speaker 2: about that we were just discussing with Laura. But this
Speaker 2: idea of a deal with Democrats to give Patrick McHenry
Speaker 2: the full powers of House Speaker. Is that something that
Speaker 2: you would help out in.
Speaker 5: Well's certainly something that I would consider. Obviously, the details of.
Speaker 6: The deal matter here. We don't want to just give the.
Speaker 5: Reins to someone who's going to run away with all
Speaker 5: the horses, but he's I think this is something that's
Speaker 5: being actively discussed.
Speaker 6: I discussed it as recently as.
Speaker 5: About ten minutes ago on the floor of the House,
Speaker 5: because we need to get the House back to functioning.
Speaker 5: I mean, what we're witnessing right now, Joe, is a
Speaker 5: nationwide Republican civil war, you know, playing out across the
Speaker 5: country in a party that's led by an indicted insurrectionist,
Speaker 5: and it's coming to a head right now in the
Speaker 5: House of the House of Representatives in a way that's
Speaker 5: just frozen.
Speaker 6: Congress.
Speaker 5: We are powerless as a United States Congress. That's never
Speaker 5: happened before in American history. And we saw in Israel
Speaker 5: what happened when what happens when your adversaries see political
Speaker 5: dysfunction at.
Speaker 6: Home, they might attack.
Speaker 5: So what's happening right now, this civil war in the
Speaker 5: Republican Party, it's actually a serious risk to our national security.
Speaker 5: That's why it's so important that we come up with
Speaker 5: some solution even if the Republicans can't manage to nominate
Speaker 5: a speaker who could actually get the votes.
Speaker 2: Well, my goodness, how many rounds do you think we're
Speaker 2: in for here? It looks like patients is running thin
Speaker 2: in the Republican conference. And I know, Congressman, that you're
Speaker 2: not in the room for those conversations. But a lot
Speaker 2: of folks are saying Jim Jordan's bid for speaker is
Speaker 2: already dead. Do you agree?
Speaker 6: Well, I certainly hope so.
Speaker 5: I mean, Jim Jordan is one of the most extreme
Speaker 5: members of Congress, not just the Republican Party, just of
Speaker 5: Congress writ large. He's not passed a single piece of
Speaker 5: legislation in the entire time he's been in office. Think
Speaker 5: about that, completely incapable of working.
Speaker 2: I want you to qualify that for us if you can, Congressman,
Speaker 2: because we keep hearing that. Tell our listeners and viewers
Speaker 2: what that actually means. When you look across the island
Speaker 2: you see a member who's never passed a bill, what.
Speaker 5: It means is that he spends all his time doing
Speaker 5: something else, so taking, you know, actually passing legislation, which
Speaker 5: I mean many would argue is our job in Congress
Speaker 5: takes some work. It takes some work building trust with
Speaker 5: your colleagues, both in your party and across the aisle.
Speaker 5: We've been on this show before talking about my bill
Speaker 5: to establish nine to eight eight as a nationwide mental
Speaker 5: health hotline. I had to develop trust with a Republican colleague,
Speaker 5: a veteran Chris Stewart from Utah.
Speaker 6: We had to work very hard to.
Speaker 5: Get it through the Committee of Jurisdiction, to get it
Speaker 5: through not only the House but the Senate, and then
Speaker 5: signed by the President. That all takes time and effort.
Speaker 5: Jim Jordan's never done that, or at least he's never
Speaker 5: done it successfully. He's literally he's been here a lot
Speaker 5: longer than me. He's never passed a single bill that
Speaker 5: he has authored. And yet look at how much time
Speaker 5: he put into trying to undermine the election.
Speaker 6: That tells you a lot about Jim Jordan's priorities. He
Speaker 6: is so extreme that a whole.
Speaker 5: Bunch of his Republican colleagues won't even support him.
Speaker 2: Some folks say, you're talking about the chairman of the
Speaker 2: Judiciary Committee, and that is a slightly different and more
Speaker 2: specialized role, and he is, in fact very busy. Of
Speaker 2: course we know that he's busy on an impeachment inquiry
Speaker 2: into Joe Biden. Congressman, where does that go? Is it
Speaker 2: on ice right now without a speaker or can you
Speaker 2: give us an update?
Speaker 6: No one knows. I mean nothing.
Speaker 5: I mean we're literally doing nothing. Nothing is happening right
Speaker 5: now in Congress. It's a perilous situation to be for
Speaker 5: our government, for our country. That means that we can't
Speaker 5: respond to an emergency. We can't do anything to support
Speaker 5: Israel in this war, or to continue supporting Ukraine in THEIRS.
Speaker 5: We can't even pass a simple resolution that just says, hey,
Speaker 5: we support you.
Speaker 6: I mean the most basic things. And by the way,
Speaker 6: to your comment.
Speaker 5: About Jordan being his new job as Judiciary committee chairman,
Speaker 5: most chairman of committees have ask a lot of bills
Speaker 5: because that's what your job is as a committee chairman
Speaker 5: as well.
Speaker 6: So most people who get that job.
Speaker 5: Have done this, and most chairmen managed to pass a
Speaker 5: lot of bills while they're in that position.
Speaker 2: We're spending time with Congressman Seth Moulton of Massachusetts. You're
Speaker 2: talking about urgent business, urgent needs, which brings us directly
Speaker 2: to the situation in Israel. I'd like to ask you
Speaker 2: about a couple of elements here, Beginning with this one
Speaker 2: hundred billion dollar request for funding that the White House
Speaker 2: is cooking up for not only Israel, but Ukraine, Congressman Taiwan,
Speaker 2: and border security. Do you support that approach considering that
Speaker 2: the government is set to shut down in one month
Speaker 2: and there's no leadership in the majority.
Speaker 5: Yes, I think President Biden is doing the right thing
Speaker 5: to put this package all together and send it to Congress.
Speaker 5: But of course what we should be doing in Congress
Speaker 5: is receiving the President's outline and then debating it and
Speaker 5: amending it, you know, passing this through committee. I sit
Speaker 5: on the House Armed Services Committee. We debate funding packages
Speaker 5: all the time, really down to the details. So we're
Speaker 5: confident that we're spending American taxpayer dollars well, that we're
Speaker 5: investing not just in these wars overseas, but fundamentally investing
Speaker 5: in our own national security by supporting democracies around the globe.
Speaker 6: Those are important debates to be.
Speaker 5: Having in Congress, and of course, once again, we can't
Speaker 5: have those debates. We can't pass this legislation, even if
Speaker 5: the President sends us a package until we get a
Speaker 5: Speaker of the House.
Speaker 2: Well, we consider funding for Israel. You wrote an op
Speaker 2: ed for CNN with the headline Net and Yahoo needs
Speaker 2: an endgame, and you reflect it on your own service. Congressman.
Speaker 2: Most people are aware that you're a combat veteran. You
Speaker 2: serve four tours as a marine in Iraq, and endgame
Speaker 2: is meaningful to you based on your experience. This whole
Speaker 2: trip that we've seen the last twenty four hours with
Speaker 2: President Biden has seen a real shift in sentiment. His
Speaker 2: summit with Arab leaders has been canceled, bait over who
Speaker 2: to blame for the blast at this hospital, and this
Speaker 2: is a real political challenge for him. To what extent
Speaker 2: is he addressing endgame on this journey to Israel.
Speaker 5: Well, what I understand, and I just was on the
Speaker 5: phone with a former Secretary of Defense just an hour
Speaker 5: or so ago, is that there are a lot of
Speaker 5: conversations going on behind the scenes with Israel trying to
Speaker 5: share with Israeli leadership all the lessons that we've learned
Speaker 5: over twenty years of war in Iraq, in Afghanistan, and
Speaker 5: we had some successes those are often forgotten to history,
Speaker 5: but we had an awful lot of failures that we
Speaker 5: know well. One of those, of course, was going into
Speaker 5: Iraq and going into Afghanistan with no plan whatsoever for
Speaker 5: what happens next, what happens the day after you so
Speaker 5: called defeat the enemy. Right, We had a very successful
Speaker 5: invasion of Iraq, remarkably successful it went. It couldn't have
Speaker 5: gotten better in so many ways. And then a few
Speaker 5: months later an insurgency came. I went home from that
Speaker 5: first tour in Iraq after the invasion, literally to march
Speaker 5: in victory parades, and then a few months later I
Speaker 5: was back fighting a vicious insurgency that had started after
Speaker 5: my marine unit left. So there are a lot of
Speaker 5: lessons for us to share with the Israelis. But my
Speaker 5: big concern, and the reason why you know the title
Speaker 5: of the op ed is about the endgame, is that
Speaker 5: I have not heard Prime Minister Nenyahu or any other
Speaker 5: Israeli leaders articulate any ideas for this at all. They
Speaker 5: all say they're going to crush Hamas. Okay, that's going
Speaker 5: to be very hard. We can go into why that's
Speaker 5: going to be hard. But even if you succeed what
Speaker 5: happens next, because if you just go back to the
Speaker 5: status quo, you're.
Speaker 6: Just going to have more terrorist attacks.
Speaker 5: I mean, if you leave Gaza a smoldering mess after
Speaker 5: you crush Hamas, you're just going to recruit more terrorists
Speaker 5: to the cause. You're actually gonna put yourself in a
Speaker 5: worse situation than you find yourselves today. So this is
Speaker 5: very concerning and it's going to be very difficult for
Speaker 5: Israel to get this right.
Speaker 2: President Biden spoke today in Israel about the lessons learned
Speaker 2: from nine to eleven. It was really something and I'm
Speaker 2: guessing this hits home for you personally and the experience
Speaker 2: that you're sharing here, because he talked about some of
Speaker 2: the overreach that the US was responsible for following nine
Speaker 2: to eleven, and his advice was to not be consumed
Speaker 2: by rage. How worried are you about overreach in this case, Congressman,
Speaker 2: where Israel moves to defeat Hamas but also creates a
Speaker 2: new generation of terrorists.
Speaker 6: Well, I mean that's the question. I don't think it's
Speaker 6: quite that simple.
Speaker 5: I think that Israelis have every right to be enraged,
Speaker 5: and frankly, they have every right to kill the perpetrators
Speaker 5: of this vicious, barbaric attack on innocent Israeli kid, it right,
Speaker 5: I mean, that's how you have to respond to some
Speaker 5: acts of terror, taking out what we call the irreconcilable terrorists,
Speaker 5: the terrorists you're never going to convince to behave differently.
Speaker 6: Who just want your death and destruction. You have to
Speaker 6: take them out.
Speaker 5: We had to do that ourselves in Iraq and Afghanistan
Speaker 5: once that insurgency started. Now, by the way, I get
Speaker 5: the fact that the insurgency started largely because of our
Speaker 5: presence there. You can argue that the situation in Israel
Speaker 5: is a bit different with this attack on innocent Israeli
Speaker 5: kids in their beds. But the bottom line is that,
Speaker 5: you know, taking out terris is part of the equation,
Speaker 5: but then you have to win over the rest of
Speaker 5: the population because if you don't do that, you run
Speaker 5: into this problem that we call terrorists mass and General
Speaker 5: Stanley McCrystal, the famed American general, he estimated it was
Speaker 5: ten to one. That means that for every innocent is
Speaker 5: every innocent person, innocent civilian that you kill, you recruit
Speaker 5: about ten terrorists to the cause. And so Israel's got
Speaker 5: to be very careful because every time they have an accident,
Speaker 5: they you know, they try to take out a terrorist,
Speaker 5: but they end up killing some civilians.
Speaker 6: You know, they might take out one terrorist and recruit
Speaker 6: ten more, and that puts them on the wrong side
Speaker 6: of that equation.
Speaker 2: Congressman, I know you need to run in a moment,
Speaker 2: but with the time we have left, you've actually fought
Speaker 2: this battle. What are Israeli soldiers in for when it
Speaker 2: comes to house to house, door to door as we
Speaker 2: keep hearing and fighting an insurgency in Gaza.
Speaker 5: It's a great question, Joe, because we've just talked a
Speaker 5: lot about the risks to this mission of killing innocent civilians,
Speaker 5: and the humanitarian crisis in unfolding in Gaza right now
Speaker 5: is just terrible and it's heartbreaking to see. I mean,
Speaker 5: Israeli kids are innocent in this little Palestinian kids are
Speaker 5: innocent as well, and no one wants to see them.
Speaker 5: We haven't talked about what you just put out there,
Speaker 5: which is what is this going to be like for
Speaker 5: the Israeli kids? Those really kids, right like eighteen nineteen
Speaker 5: year old soldiers who are going to be sent into
Speaker 5: this built up city and the answer.
Speaker 6: Is it is going to be devastating. It's going to
Speaker 6: be incredibly difficult.
Speaker 5: In my op ed on CNN, I shared a story
Speaker 5: of fighting in the urban environment in Iraq and how
Speaker 5: difficult it was just to take over one small two
Speaker 5: story building.
Speaker 6: And you look at Gaza.
Speaker 5: The buildings are ten times as high, you know, ten
Speaker 5: times as many, five times as many people as we
Speaker 5: saw in these Iraqi cities.
Speaker 6: So I mean the mission that Netnya, who is giving
Speaker 6: to these young israel these brave Israeli kids, is.
Speaker 5: Massively difficult, and I think that has to be part
Speaker 5: of sobering discussion about about what we sho what they
Speaker 5: should really do.
Speaker 6: Here.
Speaker 2: Congressman Seth Moulton, we appreciate the time, as always, democrat
Speaker 2: from Massachusetts on the Armed Services Committee, speaking through his
Speaker 2: experience as a combat veteran.
Speaker 6: In her.
Speaker 2: Rocket's good to seize her, and I hope that we'll
Speaker 2: stay in touch as we find our way through this
Speaker 2: speaker's race. Patrick McHenry just gabbled out the session. Jim
Speaker 2: Jordan has lost the second round, and we move into
Speaker 2: this day further without a Speaker of the House. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: It is not getting any easier for Jim Jordan. In fact,
Speaker 2: the Congressman has lost the second round, and it was
Speaker 2: worse than yesterday. The House, at now one twenty three
Speaker 2: pm Washington time, is already in recess.
Speaker 7: No person having received a majority the whole number of
Speaker 7: votes cast by surname. A speaker has not been elected.
Speaker 7: Pursuant to Clause twelve A of Rule one, the Chair
Speaker 7: declares the House in recess. Subject to the call.
Speaker 6: Of the Chair.
Speaker 2: The House has no speaker. As we assemble our panel,
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors.
Speaker 2: Great to have guys both of you back today. We
Speaker 2: live through one round without you yesterday and now number
Speaker 2: two Rick Jim Jordan lost twenty two Republican members. That's
Speaker 2: two more than yesterday. How many tries will he get.
Speaker 8: Oh, I think it's two and done one. I don't
Speaker 8: think he wants to go through any more of this
Speaker 8: than he has to. He will continue to lose votes
Speaker 8: from what I can tell, in any subsequent round. And
Speaker 8: so I think he even said so today he's going
Speaker 8: to take a pause. They're going to probably have a
Speaker 8: caucus meeting and try to figure out what to do.
Speaker 8: But this is a caucus in utter disarray. It'll be
Speaker 8: really interesting to see what comes out of this. There's
Speaker 8: obviously a lot of energy behind trying to find a
Speaker 8: deal to extend powers to Patrick Mahin, mckenry, the current
Speaker 8: Speaker pro tem Nuke Gingrich, and former Speaker Bayner came
Speaker 8: out yesterday pushing that concept. Democrats like Seth Moulten we
Speaker 8: just interviewed. I think it's a good idea. So if
Speaker 8: we can't find a candidate that can get two hundred
Speaker 8: and seventeen votes, and I don't think we can in
Speaker 8: the Republican side, then that may be the next you know, possible.
Speaker 2: Well, pretty remarkable here we are, Genie. A day later,
Speaker 2: everything has changed again, and Seth Moulton, as Rick references, says,
Speaker 2: he was talking about Patrick McHenry and maybe a deal
Speaker 2: involving Democrats to give full powers of the speakership to
Speaker 2: Patrick McHenry ten minutes before he joined us. Is that
Speaker 2: where we're going?
Speaker 4: You know, that seems the best and maybe the only
Speaker 4: path forward at this point. You know, things are bad.
Speaker 4: I'm listening to this vote and somebody is nominating Candace Miller,
Speaker 4: and I think, who the heck is Candace Miller. She's
Speaker 4: the McComb County Public Works Commissioner. I mean, that's how
Speaker 4: bad things have gotten. I've never heard of her. God
Speaker 4: bless Candace Miller. She got a vote. So they do
Speaker 4: need to seriously consider Republicans and Democrats joining together, extending
Speaker 4: McHenry's powers so that they can move forward with the
Speaker 4: business of the people. Representative Multon made such an important
Speaker 4: point to you. Not only are they frozen, but God forbid,
Speaker 4: there is a crisis in this country. They are absolutely
Speaker 4: unable to address it. And haven't we learned anything for
Speaker 4: watching what has happened is Israel over the last several days,
Speaker 4: several weeks. A government in chaos is terribly dangerous, and
Speaker 4: that is what we are at this point, and the
Speaker 4: entire world knows it, So give mckenry the powers, move
Speaker 4: forward and do the business of the people and sort
Speaker 4: out your business Republicans when you can, Well, what.
Speaker 2: A deal like that include Rick? Or would there be
Speaker 2: a timeline on it? Would this be Democrats saying, great,
Speaker 2: do whatever you have to do. Let's get a cr
Speaker 2: let's fund the government, Let's get these supplemental requests for
Speaker 2: Israel and Ukraine and get it done in the next
Speaker 2: ninety days. Say or is this open ended in which
Speaker 2: he could become speaker permanently?
Speaker 8: I'd start where you finish. It would be nuts to
Speaker 8: do anything but make Patrick McHenry speaker. Right, if he
Speaker 8: has a limit on his powers or his term, he'll
Speaker 8: be shackled by the same dysfunctional Congress.
Speaker 2: It can't occur. Elect a speaker.
Speaker 8: If we're going to open the door and Republicans are
Speaker 8: going to do a deal with Democrats, it needs to
Speaker 8: be for a permanent speaker, and it needs to get
Speaker 8: rid of things like these motions to vacate for one person,
Speaker 8: and it needs to be able to function as a
Speaker 8: true Congress. No limits to the authority other than what
Speaker 8: was prescribed for the speaker. Anything short of that I
Speaker 8: think is an elixir to make dysfunction even more crazy
Speaker 8: than it currently is. And I think the American people
Speaker 8: have sort of had enough with this mess. Once the
Speaker 8: Republicans make a decision that they're going to entertain Democratic
Speaker 8: votes to elect a speaker because they can't do it themselves,
Speaker 8: you need to have some kind of permanence to it.
Speaker 2: Does that become a power sharing agreement? Genie? What would
Speaker 2: Democrats need to pull the lever on this?
Speaker 4: You know, I think something we heard today, in fact,
Speaker 4: when Representative Aguilera was introducing Jim Jeffer. I think one
Speaker 4: thing they will ask for is when this consideration of
Speaker 4: funding for Israel comes up that it includes Ukraine. That's
Speaker 4: going to be a hard pill for some conservative Republicans
Speaker 4: to swallow, but moderate Republicans will be there. I do
Speaker 4: think they are going to ask for things like that
Speaker 4: that they can and should expect that McHenry, if he
Speaker 4: does indeed become a Speaker pro tem with extended powers,
Speaker 4: would be able to offer them because otherwise there's no
Speaker 4: reason for them to go along with this deal. But
Speaker 4: those are the kind of things I think we would
Speaker 4: likely hear about. And you know, I think for Democrats,
Speaker 4: they feel like keeping somebody like Jim Jordan out of
Speaker 4: the speaker chair is a win in and of itself.
Speaker 4: This is a guy that many people feel supported an
Speaker 4: insurrection against the United States. As Moulton was just telling you,
Speaker 4: it's somebody who's been in Congress, never passed a bill.
Speaker 4: His entire focus has not been on governing and legislating.
Speaker 4: It's been on derailing, it's been on stopping. It's been
Speaker 4: on being a the king of oversight and investigation of
Speaker 4: anything democratic. And that's not any way to do the
Speaker 4: business of the people. And I don't think Republican moderates
Speaker 4: or Democrats are going to go for it. That's why
Speaker 4: they feel like this keeping him off of this chair
Speaker 4: or out of this chair right now is a win
Speaker 4: for them.
Speaker 2: For our listeners and viewers who are just joining us,
Speaker 2: here is what Congressman Seth Moulton told us about this
Speaker 2: idea of elevating Patrick McHenry to formally elect him. I
Speaker 2: should say a Speaker pro tem with the powers essentially
Speaker 2: of full speaker well.
Speaker 5: Certainly something that I would consider. Obviously, the details of
Speaker 5: the deal matter here. We don't want to just give
Speaker 5: the reins to someone who's going to run away with
Speaker 5: all the horses, but he's I think this is something
Speaker 5: that's being actively discussed. I discussed it as recently as
Speaker 5: about ten minutes ago on the floor of the House
Speaker 5: because we need to get the House back to functioning.
Speaker 2: The headline on the terminal Rick Davis Jordan says he's
Speaker 2: not dropping out. So I guess I go back to
Speaker 2: my original question here. How many rounds will the conference
Speaker 2: let him get or does he end up being talked
Speaker 2: out of this in the meeting later.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's it's hard to tell. If the caucus took
Speaker 8: a vote right now and said who do we want
Speaker 8: to nominate? You know, same thing we did on Tuesday,
Speaker 8: my guess is he'd win that vote. There's not a
Speaker 8: there's not a strong opposition to him like a McCarthy
Speaker 8: or like a scalise at this stage, remembering that Scalisee
Speaker 8: beat him on that vote, only to withdraw later that day.
Speaker 8: So he has such a tenuous future as a candidate
Speaker 8: for Speaker that I suspect the caucus at this stage
Speaker 8: is prepared to say just let's wait a minute. So
Speaker 8: I think, regardless of what Jim Jordan says his future
Speaker 8: as a candidate for Speakers is limited. I don't think
Speaker 8: anybody and the Caucus is anxious to see another vote
Speaker 8: taken within the next twenty four hours that would test
Speaker 8: the limits of his strength as a candidate. My guess
Speaker 8: is he would lose even more votes than he lost
Speaker 8: between the last two rounds. So I think it's going
Speaker 8: to be up to the caucas to say, just hold
Speaker 8: on a minute. You know, we've got to break this impass.
Speaker 8: They've only got twenty days before funding for the government
Speaker 8: shuts down. Twenty business days. That's not a lot of
Speaker 8: time to come up with a budget. They originally said,
Speaker 8: the Republicans that they wanted to pass all these spending bills,
Speaker 8: these appropriations bills. They haven't passed one since then, and
Speaker 8: it's been two weeks. So we're entering an existential crisis
Speaker 8: where we don't have a government that can actually pass
Speaker 8: a bill that's going to fund the government. That will
Speaker 8: result in a shutdown, not because of choice, but because
Speaker 8: of lack of functionality.
Speaker 2: Yeah, when Rick Davis says that you should be nervous, Genie,
Speaker 2: we're out of time. But do you think how came
Speaker 2: Jeffrey is already talking to Patrick mckenry.
Speaker 4: I do hope so I don't know why they would
Speaker 4: wait any longer. I think they should have been talking
Speaker 4: over the weekends. So let's hope they are. We've got
Speaker 4: to get beyond this chaos. This chaos helps nobody, all.
Speaker 2: Right, Rick and Genie, stay with us. The President of
Speaker 2: the United States is in Israel right now. We still
Speaker 2: have a lot more to talk about when it comes
Speaker 2: to the visit in this attempt to fund Israel. That
Speaker 2: all comes back to the speakership here in Washington.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: The President of the United States delivering a message today
Speaker 2: in Israel, even as we go through this speaker race
Speaker 2: in Washington, d C. No ground invasion yet, and Joe
Speaker 2: Biden took the time in a bilateral meeting with Benjamin
Speaker 2: Nett and Yahoo to urge restraint, talking about the lessons
Speaker 2: learned from nine to eleven. He also addressed the matter
Speaker 2: of the hospital blast that killed hundreds of Palestinians in
Speaker 2: Gaza city. Of course, this became a blame game yesterday.
Speaker 2: First Hamas blamed Israel. Then Israel pointed to a terrorist
Speaker 2: group based in Gaza. President Biden spoke to that today
Speaker 2: from Tel Aviv.
Speaker 9: Based on the information we've seen to date, it appear
Speaker 9: as a result of an aerrant rocket fired by a
Speaker 9: terrorist group in Gaza. The United States on US equivocally
Speaker 9: stands for the protection of civilian life during conflict, and
Speaker 9: I grieve, I truly agree for the families who were
Speaker 9: killed or wounded by this tragedy.
Speaker 2: This reassembl our panel. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano joined
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Of course, Genie, this trip got a
Speaker 2: lot more difficult over the past twenty four hours. The
Speaker 2: bombing of the hospital led to a series of events.
Speaker 2: And you know, we don't have to connect the dots
Speaker 2: on all these, but the fact of the matter is
Speaker 2: a summit of Arab leaders was canceled. Has now cut
Speaker 2: his trip short. He'll be back in Washington, we're told,
Speaker 2: or at least on his way back tonight. Talk to
Speaker 2: us about what you've heard and seen so far. As
Speaker 2: the ground shifts beneath his feet.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Joe, you said even before this horrific incident at
Speaker 4: the hospital yesterday, you had said, prior when we heard
Speaker 4: the President was going to be going, that this is
Speaker 4: a high stakes trip for him, and boy has it been.
Speaker 4: I mean, he is really walking a very fine line.
Speaker 4: I think so far he has done the best he could.
Speaker 4: But when you think about it, what is he trying
Speaker 4: to do. He's trying to support Israel. He's trying to
Speaker 4: negotiate some type of hostage release literally rather humanitarian aid,
Speaker 4: and most importantly, perhaps trying to deter Iran from using
Speaker 4: its proxy to expand this war. And all the time,
Speaker 4: it's like this is a ticking time bomb because Israel
Speaker 4: is going to go into Gaza and the President is
Speaker 4: trying to help lay the groundwork so they can enter
Speaker 4: without Iran using its proxies to expand this war. It
Speaker 4: is a very very difficult needle to thread. I'm not
Speaker 4: sure anybody could make that happen, but the President and
Speaker 4: Blincoln they are certainly trying. And I have to to
Speaker 4: say very dismaying to hear what the King of Jordan
Speaker 4: had to say Egypt not opening their borders to these
Speaker 4: refugees from Gaza, even though you know Jordan eighty percent
Speaker 4: of that population is Palestinian. He says it's a red line.
Speaker 4: Don't ask me why he's speaking for Egypt, but he
Speaker 4: says for both Jordan and Egypt it is a red
Speaker 4: line they won't cross. And so these people, the humanitarian
Speaker 4: disaster is only going to escalate.
Speaker 2: Rick, I guess there's no turning around once people know
Speaker 2: you're going, which the presidents still have made this trip
Speaker 2: as the summit was canceled around him.
Speaker 8: Yeah, look, I think this summit is going to be
Speaker 8: a canard or the Arab community. They're reacting to false
Speaker 8: information that they're getting out of the west, out of
Speaker 8: the Gaza strip from Hamas, who you know, have a
Speaker 8: reputation for lying. The Defense Department came out with a
Speaker 8: report that says from their evaluation and this is satellite technology,
Speaker 8: this is all the kinds of abilities they have to
Speaker 8: track these kinds of missiles, that this was a missile
Speaker 8: launch by Hamas. I mean, like this is this is
Speaker 8: a crying shame that the Arab community would believe Hamas
Speaker 8: a international terrorist group versus Israeli and US intelligence and
Speaker 8: defense ministries they're going to look bad in the process.
Speaker 8: It's unfortunate. And one of the foreign policy people for
Speaker 8: one of the Arab communities I forget who said, well,
Speaker 8: we're not going to attend this, We're not gonna have
Speaker 8: this summit because it's not going to end the war. Well,
Speaker 8: it certainly would make the war more palatable and and
Speaker 8: some of the suffering. And I guess in this case
Speaker 8: they've chosen to side with hamas On on the lies
Speaker 8: rather than trying to end some of the suffering.
Speaker 2: Biden's broken through that he was.
Speaker 8: Able to get humanitarian assistants agreed to get through. So
Speaker 8: he's gotten what he wanted to get done, which is
Speaker 8: relieve some of the pressure inside guys on the border.
Speaker 8: And so yeah, I think he's getting what he wanted
Speaker 8: done without the cooperation of his Arab allies.
Speaker 2: Like for you both to listen to what he said
Speaker 2: as he referred to the aftermath of the nine to
Speaker 2: eleven terror attacks. This takes a minute, and we'll hear
Speaker 2: from both of you. This is Joe Biden today and Televion.
Speaker 9: You can't look at what has happened here to your mothers,
Speaker 9: your fathers, your grandparents, sons, daughters, children, even babies, and
Speaker 9: not scream out for justice. Justice must be done.
Speaker 6: But I caution this.
Speaker 9: While you feel that rage, we consume by it. After
Speaker 9: nine to eleven, we were en raised in the United States.
Speaker 9: While we sought justice and God justice, we also made mistakes.
Speaker 9: I'm the first dress president to visit at Israel in
Speaker 9: time of war. I made wartime decisions. I know the
Speaker 9: choices are never clear or easy for the leadership. There's
Speaker 9: always cost, but it requires being delivered, requires asking very
Speaker 9: hard questions. It requires clarity about the objectives and an
Speaker 9: honest assessment about whether the path you're on will achieve
Speaker 9: those objectives.
Speaker 2: Genie, First of all, he sounds exhausted, which has been
Speaker 2: a bit of a theme recently. But how important is
Speaker 2: that message and to what extent can Benjaminett and Yaho
Speaker 2: take that to heart?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 4: You know, he and beating Netanyah who It was stunning
Speaker 4: to see them both together, obviously both looking terribly exhausted
Speaker 4: and of course beating it. And yeaho not acting solo anymore.
Speaker 4: He is part of this triumvirate, if you will, this
Speaker 4: war cabinet. And we understand there is some division in
Speaker 4: terms of how they move forward, which may be part
Speaker 4: of the hold up. But you know, I am really
Speaker 4: struck by what Biden had to say because that sounds very,
Speaker 4: very similar to Obama's deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhoades.
Speaker 4: He's been talking about this over and over again. People
Speaker 4: said he and Obama were, you know, one in the
Speaker 4: same if you will, on foreign policy, and he has
Speaker 4: been saying the same thing the President just said. So
Speaker 4: I hear the President channeling this message. It's an important message.
Speaker 4: But again, just to echo your important conversation to Representative
Speaker 4: multon what does that actually mean? You promise to destroy
Speaker 4: Hamas what then you leave a power vacuum? And the
Speaker 4: President is asking the right questions, But what are the answers?
Speaker 4: Not that the President has to give them, but Israeli
Speaker 4: is going to have to give them, and I don't
Speaker 4: think we've heard those. Yeah, and that is terribly concerning.
Speaker 2: Rick. I'm sorry we only have thirty seconds with what
Speaker 2: we just heard from Joe Biden. Will Israel be consumed
Speaker 2: by rage?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 8: I think Israel will extract their call it revenge and
Speaker 8: their top priority will be to get the hostages back,
Speaker 8: and hopefully the two can coexist without too much civilian
Speaker 8: penalty crisis.
Speaker 2: Great analysis from Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano.
Speaker 1: As always, you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast.
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of bloom Sound On. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, where we're just now reacting to the
Speaker 2: latest failure of Jim Jordan in his quest for speaker.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Kaylee Lines, who's just back from Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2: You are up there in the midst of all the ruckus.
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to get your own office up there
Speaker 2: at some point soon. But it got worse, is kind
Speaker 2: of the headline here. It's twenty two voting for someone
Speaker 2: other than Jim Jordan.
Speaker 10: Correct, he did pick up two votes that he didn't
Speaker 10: have yesterday, but then he lost four votes that he
Speaker 10: had yesterday. So when you add it all up, net
Speaker 10: net two votes worse than the first time around. And
Speaker 10: the question now, Joe, is what happens next. Jim Jordan
Speaker 10: spokesperson said, he's not going to drop out of the race.
Speaker 10: But do they go into conference now, do they hold
Speaker 10: a third vote? Do they just go home and take
Speaker 10: a breather. It's anyone's guest.
Speaker 2: At this point. Well, that is true. I'm sure that
Speaker 2: they don't even know themselves. Rick Davis was telling us
Speaker 2: that this bid for speaker is dead, that Jim Jordan
Speaker 2: will not progress from here, but that doesn't mean they
Speaker 2: won't give him a third round. Maybe they come back
Speaker 2: around later on. It's just not looking good in terms
Speaker 2: of his momentum. Seth Moulton with us a little bit earlier.
Speaker 2: I want to play for you what he said, because
Speaker 2: we talked about this idea of Democrats getting involved in
Speaker 2: elevating or empowering Patrick McHenry to be a real boy
Speaker 2: and have the powers of speaker. He says, they're already
Speaker 2: talking about it. Kayley, here's Seth Moulton.
Speaker 5: Well, it's certainly something that I would consider. Obviously, the details.
Speaker 6: Of the deal matter here.
Speaker 5: We don't want to just give the reins to someone
Speaker 5: who's going to run away with all the horses, but
Speaker 5: he's I think this is something that's being actively discussed.
Speaker 5: I discussed it as recently as about ten minutes ago
Speaker 5: on the floor of the House, because we need to
Speaker 5: get the house back to functioning.
Speaker 2: Ten minutes ago. That was a half hour ago, while
Speaker 2: they were voting. He was having that conversation.
Speaker 10: Well, it's interesting because just a few moments ago on
Speaker 10: the steps of the Capitol a Republican Congressman Brian Donalds
Speaker 10: from Florida who says he is all for Jim George
Speaker 10: and he will continue to support Jim Jordan for as
Speaker 10: many rounds of votes as it takes he thinks Jordan
Speaker 10: will get there. Is very opposed to the idea of
Speaker 10: expanding the powers of Patrick McHenry in pro tem, and
Speaker 10: I think he's not the only Republican that feels that way.
Speaker 10: It's just a question of are there enough Republicans you
Speaker 10: could join with Democrats to make this happen, and we
Speaker 10: just aren't totally sure, as has been so often the
Speaker 10: case in recent weeks.
Speaker 2: Joe of the numbers, I mean, really, it is something
Speaker 2: we're waking up every morning with no idea what's going
Speaker 2: to be in place by the time we go to bed,
Speaker 2: and that's why sound on is essential right now, and
Speaker 2: that's why it's essential to stay in touch with. Libby Cantrell,
Speaker 2: who's been writing about all of this, joins us now
Speaker 2: from New York. Pimcost, head of US Public Policy. Libby,
Speaker 2: welcome back. It's great to have you here as we
Speaker 2: consider the idea of empowering Patrick McHenry. You wrote about
Speaker 2: this in your most recent note to clients, which have
Speaker 2: been flying lately, which we're always keeping an eye out
Speaker 2: for your most recent thoughts on this because it's pretty important.
Speaker 2: Is this something the market would be comfortable with? Is
Speaker 2: it the best case scenario? How do you see it?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean I am there. There's been there's been
Speaker 11: a lot of material, needless to say, to write about Joe. Yeah,
Speaker 11: I think the ultimate I mean are kind of our
Speaker 11: view is that the ultimate result, kind of endgame here
Speaker 11: is likely some sort of compromise where Protems Speaker McCarthy
Speaker 11: actually gets elected, and as you point out, he may
Speaker 11: not be able to do that with just Republican votes.
Speaker 11: That might mean that Democrats will have to vote for them.
Speaker 11: And need to be clear, it's not necessarily for a
Speaker 11: permanent speaker position. It's just too effectively give him more
Speaker 11: authorities in his current feat and the House rules as
Speaker 11: you all know, when people's eyes blazed over, but they're
Speaker 11: actually important that an appointed speaker ProTem can do very
Speaker 11: limited things. However, an elected speaker ProTem can basically function
Speaker 11: as for you know, for all intents and purposes, just
Speaker 11: a normal Speaker of the House, including really importantly bringing
Speaker 11: legislation to the House floor. However, I do think it
Speaker 11: may take a while to get there. I do think
Speaker 11: Republicans are likely inclined to exhaust all options on the table.
Speaker 11: That may include a representative Jim Jordan going for a
Speaker 11: third ballot, we'll see, but it also may include, as
Speaker 11: you mentioned, some other folks being nominated to the floor
Speaker 11: and sort of going through this again. So it feels
Speaker 11: like all, you know, sort of arrows are putting in
Speaker 11: the direction ultimately of a speaker ProTem being elected and
Speaker 11: as a result having more authorities. But it may take
Speaker 11: a while to get there, and I get I don't
Speaker 11: think this is necessarily an ideal solution for many Republicans,
Speaker 11: so it will try to avoid it if possible.
Speaker 10: Well, Libby, is this kind of like a continuing resolution,
Speaker 10: but instead of being about funding, it's about being who
Speaker 10: has the gavel, Right, you just give a set date
Speaker 10: that Speaker McCarthy can or Speaker mckenry Speaker pro Tem
Speaker 10: mc henry can act with more powers, and then eventually
Speaker 10: you are still going to have to deal with getting
Speaker 10: someone permanently the gavel and that's still going to be
Speaker 10: just as hard. However, many days or weeks from now.
Speaker 11: Okay, it's like that's a very apt analogy that that's
Speaker 11: exactly what this is. It's basically just to buy more
Speaker 11: time for the Republican Caucus to sort of coalesce around
Speaker 11: you to one one Candida, and that may ultimately be
Speaker 11: a Speaker pro tem mckenry. He's well liked among various
Speaker 11: different factions within the GOP caucus. He is actually well
Speaker 11: liked on the other side of the aisle as well,
Speaker 11: So you know, that could ultimately be sort of the
Speaker 11: resolution here that he becomes the permanent speaker. But it again,
Speaker 11: it may have to kind of go through this sort
Speaker 11: of first step in order to get there. But I
Speaker 11: don't I don't want to prejudge this because, as you
Speaker 11: guys have pointed out, there is. There are a lot
Speaker 11: of moving parts here. It does seem like just talking
Speaker 11: to folks on the hill that Republicans don't want to
Speaker 11: kind of go towards the speaker ProTem enabling them enable mckenry.
Speaker 11: It's sort of a first first step, though I think
Speaker 11: there will be more steps in between now, now, and.
Speaker 2: Then and every time. If you're with us on YouTube,
Speaker 2: you see Patrick McHenry just dropping that gavel with the
Speaker 2: force of nature behind it. I don't know if he's
Speaker 2: going to break that thing if he ends up getting
Speaker 2: it for real, Libby. But let's back up to what's
Speaker 2: actually happening today. Your note to clients made it pretty
Speaker 2: clear Jim Jordan's speaker bid is likely toast. Is that
Speaker 2: still how you see it after round two?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I may should have softened that a little, but
Speaker 11: it is it is, And yeah, I am honest. I'm
Speaker 11: not pulling any punches here, and no disrespect to Representative Jordan.
Speaker 11: It just it is difficult when you go on a
Speaker 11: second ballot and instead of gaining votes, you actually lose
Speaker 11: net votes. And as Haley points out, by it, while
Speaker 11: he gained two folks, he lost four, so net he
Speaker 11: lost two, meaning that he's twenty two, you know, votes away,
Speaker 11: pretty difficult to sorry eighteen votes away from getting that
Speaker 11: magic two seventeen. That's a pretty big hole from which
Speaker 11: to dig out of. And then, you know, Joe, we've
Speaker 11: talked about this before, if he were to try to
Speaker 11: dig out of that meaning kind of twisting arms, what
Speaker 11: deals does he have to make, what promises does he
Speaker 11: have to make? And that could get him very much
Speaker 11: in the same situation that former Speaker McCarthy found himself.
Speaker 11: And so it doesn't feel like a very clear path
Speaker 11: to getting those two seventeen votes. So at this point
Speaker 11: I would say that, yes, his speakership chances are probably
Speaker 11: are probably toast.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Libby Congressman Womack, who has voted against Jordan, told our
Speaker 10: colleague Jack Fitzpatrick earlier today that what Jordan and his
Speaker 10: surrogates need to understand is that this isn't like January.
Speaker 10: In January, the holdouts were holding out because of policy concerns.
Speaker 10: Now they're holding out because of concerns about the individual himself,
Speaker 10: Jim Jordan. It kind of feels Libby like all of
Speaker 10: this is personal, and it's personal for everyone who was
Speaker 10: tried and failed to be speaker at this point.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean as you as you as you guys know,
Speaker 11: I mean the Speaker of the House plays you know,
Speaker 11: lots of important functions, but one, you know, really critical
Speaker 11: function is a fundraising one. Speaker McCarthy was an incredibly
Speaker 11: productive and successful fundraiser on behalf of the Republican conference
Speaker 11: in the House. Folks would very gladly invite him to
Speaker 11: their districts. I think the hesitation Kylee and kind of
Speaker 11: this is where the personal connection comes in. And then
Speaker 11: do you think folks they're they're hesitant about Representative Jordan
Speaker 11: coming to those districts that kind of are purple, if
Speaker 11: not lean blue, particularly here in New York or in California.
Speaker 11: And so I think there's some reticence about kind of
Speaker 11: the person and some of his votes and some of
Speaker 11: his tactics previously, and how that would kind of go
Speaker 11: over with the with their own donors. So and then
Speaker 11: I think that other folks do have with a personal
Speaker 11: issues with him, just in terms of how you know,
Speaker 11: Representative Jordan may have navigated the whole when Steve's Police
Speaker 11: was nominated. So yes, there are its fews abound, and
Speaker 11: needless to say, but again I think from kind of
Speaker 11: a market's perspective, as we've talked about, because mostly noise,
Speaker 11: mostly noise. But I do think as we get closer
Speaker 11: without a resolution, I think folks do start getting kind
Speaker 11: of nervous that things like the government funding though and
Speaker 11: what have you are just going to go by the wayside,
Speaker 11: and that may increase the chances of a government shutdown.
Speaker 2: So that keeps the market on edge, of course, And
Speaker 2: when you zoom out here Libby, the news on the
Speaker 2: other end of Pennsylvania Avenue is just as difficult with
Speaker 2: President Biden landing in Tel Aviv in a much more
Speaker 2: complex region than it was even twenty four hours earlier,
Speaker 2: with the summit of Arab leaders being canceled, the blast
Speaker 2: in the hospital, the President trying to deliver a message
Speaker 2: of restraint while also supporting Israel at the same time.
Speaker 2: It's getting pretty complicated here. There are a lot of concerns
Speaker 2: as we look at the oil market about what could
Speaker 2: happen in a widening war when you when you consider
Speaker 2: both of these and we can drill down on the
Speaker 2: President's trip a little bit more if you like, but
Speaker 2: the dysfunction on the hill, the situation the administration of
Speaker 2: the US is involved in two aircraft carriers steaming into
Speaker 2: the Eastern Mediterranean. What does the market think?
Speaker 11: Yeah, and this is it basically just adds yet another
Speaker 11: layer of risk. I mean, clearly the market has been
Speaker 11: distracted with lots of things. Uh, the fact that yields,
Speaker 11: treasure yields have backed up so much, the fact that
Speaker 11: their folks are concerned about kind of a natural buyers
Speaker 11: of treasury bonds not necessarily showing up to auctions. And
Speaker 11: then you kind of lay over the sort of the
Speaker 11: domestic dysfunction with the sort of geopolitical tail risk, and
Speaker 11: it is a lot for the market to digest. You
Speaker 11: sort of see the bond vigilanti diet again today kind
Speaker 11: of rearing their their heads once again, while yields are
Speaker 11: are continuing to back up. I think that the real concern,
Speaker 11: of course for the markets, both from a risk perspective
Speaker 11: but also from a commodity's perspective, is if there were
Speaker 11: an expansion or a broadening of this conflict. I mean,
Speaker 11: obviously it's on a humanitarian level just through tragic all
Speaker 11: the way around. But I do think kind of the
Speaker 11: markets that the markets really care about is whether there
Speaker 11: is sort of more direct confrontation of course, between between
Speaker 11: the US and either HEADBLA or or Ron directly. That
Speaker 11: is when the markets I think will start getting would
Speaker 11: get very very concerned. I think that still seems to
Speaker 11: remain a tail risk. It seems that you know, folks
Speaker 11: are being very careful in their language, very careful about
Speaker 11: who was responsible for those tragic terrorist attacks and then
Speaker 11: what have you, particularly as it relates to Iran's role.
Speaker 11: But you know, this is I think yet another tail
Speaker 11: risk for sure that the market would have to sort
Speaker 11: of sort of have to price in, uh, if you
Speaker 11: if you will.
Speaker 10: Yeah, And we know that there are things that markets
Speaker 10: don't like libya An uncertainty first and foremost is at
Speaker 10: the top of that list. So we have uncertainty with
Speaker 10: the geopolitical situation, uncertainty domestically, and yet you don't really
Speaker 10: seem outside of perhaps oil markets, we see much reflected
Speaker 10: in the markets. Yet do you think they're reading this
Speaker 10: correctly at this point given the risks known and unknown?
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean, you know, oftentimes you do see your
Speaker 11: duration rallying, sort of interest rates acting, the treasury rates
Speaker 11: acting sort of as a safe haven. And we did
Speaker 11: see that for you know you for a few days
Speaker 11: last week, but that is again sort of rewinding or reversing,
Speaker 11: as you know, folks start focusing on other things, including
Speaker 11: the strength of the economy with the retail sales and
Speaker 11: what have you. This week that we're surprisingly strong to
Speaker 11: showing that the consumer remains incredibly robust here in the US.
Speaker 11: So I think it's sorted into a question of what
Speaker 11: markets are focused on right now. I think they're much
Speaker 11: more focused on domestic economic data. They're much more focused
Speaker 11: on what the Fed is saying. We're gonna have a
Speaker 11: lot of Fed speak this week. Chairman Powell will be
Speaker 11: making some remarks also this week. I think folks are
Speaker 11: really going to be focused on that. But all the
Speaker 11: other stuff, I think it's kind of noise until it's
Speaker 11: not right. It's noise until it actually matters. And I
Speaker 11: think the same thing goes for just the dysfunction or
Speaker 11: disunity on Capitol Hill that its debts it or doesn't
Speaker 11: matter until it does. I think the markets are just
Speaker 11: assuming it doesn't matter. But again, as we said, if
Speaker 11: you get closer to that damage backdown deadline, it may
Speaker 11: it may view it just you know, not as much noise,
Speaker 11: but more as a signal.
Speaker 2: No, we've got a month ago to chew on that idea. Libby,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thanks for the analysis. As always,
Speaker 2: it's our pleasure to have Libby Cantrill from PIMCO. You
Speaker 2: mentioned Kaylee Steve Omack, who made very similar remarks to
Speaker 2: CNN earlier today that you mentioned. He was giving the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg earlier about you know, time to give up the ghosts.
Speaker 2: Here's what he.
Speaker 12: Said, nobody in America can get to seventeen right now
Speaker 12: out of the Republican conference. If that becomes apparent to everybody,
Speaker 12: then at some point in time, we're going to have
Speaker 12: to work across the aisle try to figure out what
Speaker 12: it's going to take for us to be able to
Speaker 12: get a speaker elected and then get the ball rolling
Speaker 12: in Congress once again.
Speaker 2: So it's on to Patrick McHenry. It sure seems like,
Speaker 2: but we have to remind our viewers, at listeners, our
Speaker 2: friends here unsound on that literally anything could happen this afternoon.
Speaker 2: They're not even back in that conference meeting yet.
Speaker 10: Yeah, we don't know what will happen over the course
Speaker 10: of the next hour, day, week. It's just incredibly unpredictable
Speaker 10: at this moment, and to his point, we don't know
Speaker 10: if anyone can get two one hundred and seventeen votes.
Speaker 10: Patrick mcginny, possibly he may not included knowing he was
Speaker 10: a very close ally of Kevin McCarthy and helped negotiate
Speaker 10: that debt sealing deal that got everybody mad at him
Speaker 10: in the first place. And ultimately, you know how.
Speaker 2: That lan that thing, Kayleye slammis so hard. Sam put
Speaker 2: that thing on repeat for our viewers on YouTube. The
Speaker 2: wind Up the pitch, Long fly ball to left field.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew with Kaylee Lyons. This is Bloomberg. Thanks
Speaker 2: for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to
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Speaker 2: else you get your podcasts, and you can find us
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Speaker 2: Time at Bloomberg dot com