Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day
Speaker 1: for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and
Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Neil Dutta
Speaker 1: is an optimist. He's oeud of US Economic Research at
Speaker 1: Renaissance Macro at Research. He's absolutely nailed the better than
Speaker 1: good American economy. Neil, I got to go to GDP
Speaker 1: first and then Lisa and I want to dive into
Speaker 1: this inflation report. And the basic idea Neil is Atlanta
Speaker 1: GDP sees a sprightly initial start to the quarter. Are
Speaker 1: you at a three percent run rate on a real
Speaker 1: GDP or are you at a lesser run rate?
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I remember that's still very early in
Speaker 2: the quarter, and the Atlanta Fed tends to get that
Speaker 2: estimate tends to get better over time as more data
Speaker 2: comes in. But even if you assume you know a
Speaker 2: typical kind of you know, error term and like, let's
Speaker 2: say it's all going down, you'd still be talking about
Speaker 2: above trend growth. So it would be really hard for
Speaker 2: me to see, you know, GDP coming in something below
Speaker 2: you know, two and a half percent when the quarter's
Speaker 2: all said and done. There's just a lot of momentum
Speaker 2: behind behind the economy, right So when you hold things
Speaker 2: like the level of consumer spending flat to where it
Speaker 2: was in June, you're still talking about a build in
Speaker 2: for the third quarter from consumption of over one percent
Speaker 2: at an annual rate. So I think that's primarily what's
Speaker 2: driving the GDP now estimate. But yeah, look, I mean
Speaker 2: the economy is growing above trent. Your own Bloomberg consensus
Speaker 2: sees GDP, I think barely half a percent in the
Speaker 2: third quarter, negative in the fourth quarter. I think that
Speaker 2: that is highly unlikely, and that revisions will you know,
Speaker 2: be skewed to the upside.
Speaker 3: So right now, what we're seeing is a broad side
Speaker 3: of relief in markets, with some cheering in the bonds,
Speaker 3: where you're seeing basically people writing off the Fed raising
Speaker 3: rates again and saying you are seeing the soft landing,
Speaker 3: you are seeing the disinflation. You can call it immaculate
Speaker 3: or at whatever else that a lot of people were
Speaker 3: waiting for. What in this data can you point to
Speaker 3: to say they're wrong.
Speaker 2: Well, it's not much. You know, you could make the argument,
Speaker 2: I think that the downward movement in used cars will
Speaker 2: probably only build over the rest of the summer. You know,
Speaker 2: we do know that wholesale auction prices continue to come down,
Speaker 2: and thus far we've only seen a very modest decline
Speaker 2: in use car prisis, so there may be some more
Speaker 2: pass through there. So I do think that there's probably
Speaker 2: a little bit more disinflation in the pipeline. But again,
Speaker 2: you know, I think the reacceleration story for inflation, it's
Speaker 2: really about, in my view, is the economy growing above
Speaker 2: trend or not. And I think the economy is growing
Speaker 2: above trend. I don't think the FED has done enough,
Speaker 2: and I think the FED is kind of enamored with
Speaker 2: this soft landing view. They're almost wish casting this outlook.
Speaker 2: And I do think that there is a risk that
Speaker 2: the FED is kind of patting itself on the back
Speaker 2: by the end of the year, only to watch inflation
Speaker 2: potentially turn back up, you know, sometime next year. We
Speaker 2: do know that home prices are rising, while the relationship
Speaker 2: between home prices and rents is very tenuous in the
Speaker 2: short run, I mean, ultimately, the asset market effect is
Speaker 2: what drives rents. I mean, landlords don't charge they want
Speaker 2: to extract more from tenants when the underlying value of
Speaker 2: the asset that they're putting on the market is going
Speaker 2: up in price and commodity prices.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 2: Look, I mean oil is at year to date highs
Speaker 2: more or less. With everyone concerned about China and Europe,
Speaker 2: you know, I suspect these economies probably won't get much
Speaker 2: worse than they are now. I mean, that would be
Speaker 2: my baseline expectation. And there's probably, in other words, there's
Speaker 2: more room for oil to go up, and that's going
Speaker 2: to have very mechanical impacts on not just headline inflation,
Speaker 2: but parts of core inflation as well.
Speaker 3: I've been looking at the pricing and market. It's a
Speaker 3: fed policy and where people are settling out and they're
Speaker 3: now pricing and cuts at the first couple of months
Speaker 3: of next year. And I'm wondering, from your vantage point, Neil,
Speaker 3: how disruptive it would be if suddenly that market complacency
Speaker 3: is challenged by the idea of stickier inflation, reaccelerating inflation
Speaker 3: that wouldn't even cause another FED rate hike, but just
Speaker 3: wouldn't necessarily lead to those cuts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it depends, right, because if it's a
Speaker 2: stronger economy and stronger growth expectations, that's making the market
Speaker 2: prices the price out those cuts. I mean that could
Speaker 2: be in an environment where equity markets could potentially work. Right,
Speaker 2: So you see higher interest rates and that hurts, but
Speaker 2: you know, you'd expect earnings and expected earnings expectations to
Speaker 2: go up, so that could be be okay. But I
Speaker 2: do think you know, to me, it's it comes down
Speaker 2: to something very very basic, right. You know that the
Speaker 2: FED began hiking in March of last year, and since then,
Speaker 2: what do they have to show for it?
Speaker 4: Really?
Speaker 2: You know, Powell talked about pain being necessary or likely.
Speaker 2: We've seen the unemployment rate actually ticked down since then.
Speaker 2: GDP's growing above trend, broader. Financial market conditions are as
Speaker 2: easy now as they were then, and maybe if not easier,
Speaker 2: you know, all difference to the Fed's new financial conditions framework.
Speaker 2: That that number when it was published, you know, showed
Speaker 2: financial markets being aheadwinds. Now that that has basically gone
Speaker 2: to zero, So what have they actually done? So I
Speaker 2: think it comes down to something very basic. Either you
Speaker 2: think the labor markets are a conduit for inflation or
Speaker 2: you don't. And I think what we're seeing now is
Speaker 2: basically tight labor markets, a lift to real wages, as
Speaker 2: you know. And I think ultimately people will go out
Speaker 2: and spend more money, blueing household demand, and I think
Speaker 2: that'll keep prices in the aggregate stickier for longer in
Speaker 2: the area.
Speaker 1: No, Donna, thank you so much with the renaissance macrel,
Speaker 1: we get clarity now.
Speaker 5: On an August.
Speaker 1: Thursday with David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist JP Morgan Asset Management,
Speaker 1: he has been definitive over the decades of the holistic picture. David,
Speaker 1: I do want to get to your stunning call on jobs,
Speaker 1: but let's leave out aside right now. Do we have
Speaker 1: disinflation in America?
Speaker 4: Yes, we've sort of got gathering disinflation in America. We've
Speaker 4: got the numbers this morning. We're close to what we told.
Speaker 4: But it's nice to see the sort of the core
Speaker 4: services part of inflation come down. But what I think
Speaker 4: I'm most interested in is actually it's not actually the numbers.
Speaker 4: It's forecasting the numbers because when you run, when you're
Speaker 4: trying to forecast these numbers, you realize, Okay, new car
Speaker 4: prices have basically been flat or down since the start
Speaker 4: of the year, and we're still seeing these huge increases
Speaker 4: in auto insurance and auto repair costs. But that's gult
Speaker 4: to break. And same thing with shelter costs. Shelter is
Speaker 4: about ninety percent of the increase in CPI at this stage.
Speaker 4: But we know the rents have stopped rising, we know
Speaker 4: that rising vacancy rate for apartments. So what we can
Speaker 4: see is the promise of future disinflation in these numbers
Speaker 4: and really trying to forecast these numbers. And that's why
Speaker 4: I'm so convinced that inflation is going to get down
Speaker 4: to two percent on its own, with or without any
Speaker 4: help from the FAV.
Speaker 1: In your summed statement. And you and I've talked about
Speaker 1: this over many years, including with Bob Goodman years ago.
Speaker 1: There's an underestimation of the X axis. Are we underplaying
Speaker 1: in our what's going to happen next quarter, what's going
Speaker 1: to happen in de k Jackson Hall, what's going to
Speaker 1: happen to the meeting do we need to extend out
Speaker 1: our study a year or dare I say two years
Speaker 1: out to get to a successful disinflation.
Speaker 4: Well, for investing, you always should, because I mean equity
Speaker 4: investing in you know, most of your viewers are interested
Speaker 4: in the stock market. It shouldn't be about the next
Speaker 4: year anyway, But yes, I think it particularly this time around.
Speaker 4: I think that's the case because what we know with
Speaker 4: inflation is it's very symmetric. It actually looks like the
Speaker 4: Eiffel Tower goes up and comes down in exactly that
Speaker 4: pattern we saw in the nineteen seventies. We're seeing it
Speaker 4: again now forty years later. But it takes a little
Speaker 4: while to come down, and it's because of lags and
Speaker 4: things like transportation services and particularly owners equivalent rent, and
Speaker 4: so as we track this thing out, it's going to
Speaker 4: hit two on CPI and on core CPI by late
Speaker 4: next year, and that's the track gets on. So I
Speaker 4: think you have to wait for that to play out,
Speaker 4: and then you realize that, Okay, where does that leave us?
Speaker 4: That leaves us in a loan inflation, low inflation, slow
Speaker 4: growth economy. I think the Federal Reserve will be cutting
Speaker 4: interest rates of see faster we end up in recession.
Speaker 4: But I think you have to sort of look out
Speaker 4: beyond the volatility inflation that we've seen in the last
Speaker 4: two years to realize that we're headed for a place
Speaker 4: of slow growth, which looks quite like a decade ago.
Speaker 4: I think that's wheally where it's sort of a return
Speaker 4: to where we were ten years ago.
Speaker 3: If that's the case, why wouldn't you take a look
Speaker 3: at where markets are positioned and just load the vote
Speaker 3: thirty year treasuries and say everyone's wrong. They think that
Speaker 3: inflation could get unmoored if the Fed is less aggressive.
Speaker 6: I don't.
Speaker 4: I wouldn't back up the truck because I think they're
Speaker 4: better opportunities in markets than thirty your treasuries. I mean,
Speaker 4: I do think that that the bond market overall is
Speaker 4: better priced it's been for many, many years. I think
Speaker 4: there is a one time capital gain there as rates
Speaker 4: come down, as people realize the Federal Reserve is going
Speaker 4: to have to cut rates sooner. Related to this, Columny
Speaker 4: will stumble and a four percent ten year treasure yield
Speaker 4: will turn to a three percent treasure yield or a
Speaker 4: two percent treasure yield, and people make a capital gain,
Speaker 4: but I think there are better long term capital gains
Speaker 4: we made still in the equity market. But I wouldn't
Speaker 4: be underweighted fixed income right now, and within fixed income,
Speaker 4: I would be definitely long duration and short credit. I
Speaker 4: don't think you're paid for taking credit risks. You are
Speaker 4: getting paid for taking duration risks.
Speaker 1: Doctor Kelly, I've got to do this, It's too important.
Speaker 1: Jason Furman of Harvard just comes out with the mathematics
Speaker 1: on the annualized view twelve month annualized four point seven
Speaker 1: percent core six months.
Speaker 5: The view is four point one.
Speaker 1: Percent, a lesser disinflation three months, which is what I
Speaker 1: look at three point one percent, David Kelly. The one
Speaker 1: month annualized core CPI is one point nine percent. Can
Speaker 1: you go short termism and look at those one in
Speaker 1: three month statistics? Are they a valid tool to gauge disinflation?
Speaker 4: I don't think so looking at the CPI index, because
Speaker 4: what's really going on is you've got these these weird
Speaker 4: categories in owner's equivalent brand, actual rents and transportation services,
Speaker 4: and I think you just have to track with that's doing.
Speaker 4: I agree with the general proposition the core services inflation
Speaker 4: and inflation in general is fading here. I do not
Speaker 4: think it's getting pushed up by wages. I do think
Speaker 4: it's getting pulled down by competition and by increased inventories.
Speaker 4: So I agree with that the result, but I think
Speaker 4: that the short term view is really being affected by
Speaker 4: the way the government measures these things.
Speaker 5: David, Thank you so much, David Kell. This is a joy.
Speaker 1: After Michael Nathans and yesterday and talking to Rich Greenfield
Speaker 1: from time to time, to speak to Jessica reef Ralic,
Speaker 1: Senior Media Entertainment analyst at Bank of America is an
Speaker 1: honor on this important day for Disney. Jessica, I don't
Speaker 1: want to talk numbers today. I don't want to talk ratios.
Speaker 1: Iger wakes up. I believe he puts.
Speaker 5: On his pants one leg at a time.
Speaker 1: He goes into the office and takes breakfast at some
Speaker 1: place with avocado this or glessa pure water. Who does
Speaker 1: he speak to within Disney about the urgency of a
Speaker 1: true restructure. Who's he actually talking to?
Speaker 7: I think that is a great question, because there does
Speaker 7: seem to be a lack of confidant in the company,
Speaker 7: given the exodus of executives over the years, and so
Speaker 7: bringing back reportedly bringing back Kevin Mayer and even Tom
Speaker 7: Stabbs should give gives Bob big Er somebody with experience
Speaker 7: to kind of bounce things off of.
Speaker 1: But the issue, Jessica, and you've lived this. I mean
Speaker 1: you used to go in and Gordon Crawford would shake
Speaker 1: a Capitol guardian trust because Jessica was showing up to
Speaker 1: give him wisdom on this.
Speaker 5: There was a business model.
Speaker 1: You made a movie, You made four movies for one
Speaker 1: hundred million, and one of them hit big and everybody
Speaker 1: was happy. That model has been destroyed. What's the Jessica
Speaker 1: reef aerlic streaming model that will provide cash flow and profit.
Speaker 8: Look, I think they're taking the right steps. I've heard
Speaker 8: you guys speak about the price increase, which is have dy.
Speaker 8: There's a twenty seven percent price increase for the subscription
Speaker 8: only tier at Disney Plus and a twenty percent price
Speaker 8: increase for Hulu.
Speaker 6: Again, subscription only.
Speaker 8: Advertising is not the advertising tier is not being touched
Speaker 8: because the r POO is higher with a combination of
Speaker 8: subscription and advertising. So they're kind of forcing consumers into
Speaker 8: the law price advertising supported tier.
Speaker 6: So that should help the bottom line.
Speaker 8: They did say that costs are a head of expectations,
Speaker 8: so they'll have more than five point five billion dollars
Speaker 8: in total costs being taken out of the company. A
Speaker 8: lot of that is streaming, so it's content, it's marketing, overhead, etc.
Speaker 6: SG and a et cetera. So they're focusing on that.
Speaker 6: On the content side, they do need to improve, no
Speaker 6: question about it. And Bob bygers last night, this is
Speaker 6: his primary focus.
Speaker 3: Well primary focus in order to grow the platform or
Speaker 3: in order to prepare it for some sort of spin
Speaker 3: off or sale to someone else.
Speaker 8: In either case, whether it's it's keeping it internally or
Speaker 8: selling or spinning, they need to improve the content. And
Speaker 8: it's you know, the content on the platform has to
Speaker 8: be improved, he said. He said in the past that
Speaker 8: it's been getting tired. They have too many you.
Speaker 6: Know, there's just everyone's getting distracted.
Speaker 8: And obviously the one place where they've really missed is
Speaker 8: in film over the last you know, a couple of
Speaker 8: years and they hit and this is his primary focus.
Speaker 6: They have to fix that film division.
Speaker 3: So this sounded like a Bob Eiger and retreat, defensive,
Speaker 3: not really aggressive and offensive, not planning out some sort
Speaker 3: of expansion kind of plan, but rather really not pushing
Speaker 3: back against the suggestion of a sale to Apple there
Speaker 3: in some of the parts or in a large sum,
Speaker 3: and you're looking at a situation where people are questioning
Speaker 3: what the value of the company is beyond the parks.
Speaker 3: Do you think that it is valid to really characterize
Speaker 3: this as Disney in defense.
Speaker 8: Well, look, they are clearly challenged from multiple areas. They
Speaker 8: have secular challenges with the PATV universe in decline, as
Speaker 8: do all traditional media companies. There are also cyclical challenges
Speaker 8: which all of the all companies are facing. But they
Speaker 8: have incredible assets, they have incredible branded, unique IP and
Speaker 8: so this is they're dealing from a position of a
Speaker 8: challenge position on one hand and a position of strength
Speaker 8: on the other. And it does feel like, yes, there's
Speaker 8: some defensiveness because they have to fix what's wrong and
Speaker 8: there's a lot that's wrong.
Speaker 6: But he's also dealing with each piece of it.
Speaker 8: So whether it's leveraging the ESPN they know with a
Speaker 8: deal with pen or you know, focusing on different parts
Speaker 8: of the business.
Speaker 6: They're quick. Costs are growing, the subs on sub.
Speaker 8: Numbers, I know you guys have mentioned that they lost subs,
Speaker 8: but a lot of the subs are fifty cent subs
Speaker 8: in India that don't financially contribute.
Speaker 1: Right, Jessica, just do you give me a three year
Speaker 1: vision on who's going to win it streaming on a
Speaker 1: biold cell basis, who's your winner out three years on
Speaker 1: the streaming wars?
Speaker 8: Well, obviously, Deflix is doing incredibly well and in.
Speaker 6: A great position. We also think Warner Brothers.
Speaker 8: Discovery with Max, which is really just at the very
Speaker 8: very beginning stages, is in a phenomenal position. Given their
Speaker 8: extensive they don't just have the biggest library, they have
Speaker 8: probably the best library in the industry. And I think
Speaker 8: you guys have been a little tough on Disney this
Speaker 8: morning because if you add Disney Plus with Hulu with
Speaker 8: ESPN Plus, they are well over two hundred million subs,
Speaker 8: so they have a lot going on.
Speaker 6: But look, there's a lot effects.
Speaker 8: And I absolutely agree with that, and it does seem
Speaker 8: like they're taking many of the steps that are necessary
Speaker 8: to fix this platform.
Speaker 9: And Jessica would be tough because our subsound fifty cents
Speaker 9: that by Adi Dallas Adie something dulls a month, Jessica.
Speaker 9: Thank you, Jessica ried Bank for America appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Henrietta Trade, he's economic policy director research with Vida Partners,
Speaker 1: joins us right now.
Speaker 5: We talked to Kim Wallace.
Speaker 1: Earlier, which is great because you've got legit international economics
Speaker 1: there with Henrietta Trades, you've got piercing domestic policy analysis.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, Henrietta, what do the Democrats do on Capitol
Speaker 1: Hill to advance bidynomics?
Speaker 10: Well, first of all, I'll be to say I wish
Speaker 10: I'd dress better for this segment, because I am just
Speaker 10: beyond Hermes. I think we're calling you now. So what
Speaker 10: are the Democrats doing to advance bydenomics? I mean, I
Speaker 10: think right now what you're seeing is them canvassing across
Speaker 10: the country and really watching to see, most importantly, who
Speaker 10: is coming out in the Republican Party on the Senate
Speaker 10: candidate side, and how they can run an economic agenda
Speaker 10: against them. So far, it's turning out to be pretty easy,
Speaker 10: and they don't even really have to focus on economics yet,
Speaker 10: as the votes in Ohio earlier this week showed, they
Speaker 10: can talk about abortion issues and get them turn out
Speaker 10: to be through the roof.
Speaker 11: They can run against Kerry Lake.
Speaker 10: It looks like in Arizona, which is going to be
Speaker 10: sort of a Trump versus Biden and sort of mainstream politics.
Speaker 10: So the Bidenomics message is something they're trying to get
Speaker 10: out there, but they haven't had to really yet.
Speaker 1: When you're wearing your ames and all the bars of
Speaker 1: Capital City and you're getting pulsed up here for the debates,
Speaker 1: the primaries, the election, Henrietta, Trey's the phrase, it's the
Speaker 1: economy stupid, I've never agreed with. Is it the culture
Speaker 1: war stupid? Is that really where we're heading?
Speaker 11: You know what it is? It's abortion stupid. Do not
Speaker 11: come from abortion. I mean Roe v.
Speaker 10: Wade and the jobs decision was the worst thing Republicans
Speaker 10: could ever have done.
Speaker 11: They woke up a beast.
Speaker 10: It is all age brackets, It is a turnout machine,
Speaker 10: and they're losing hand over foot. And I don't see
Speaker 10: anyway that that's going to change, especially since Republicans keep
Speaker 10: poking the bear. So I think that's really the message.
Speaker 10: It's not the economy, it's abortion.
Speaker 9: That message on the national stage isn't going down.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 9: What about in the primaries, Henritta, what do you expect
Speaker 9: to hear in the debates later this month?
Speaker 10: Well, the debates this month are obviously all going to
Speaker 10: be on the Republican side, and I think rond De
Speaker 10: Santis is the one that every candidate is going to
Speaker 10: try to beat because Trump may or may not show up.
Speaker 10: If Trump is not on the the deis for those debates,
Speaker 10: you're going to see Rhonda Santis just get slammed by
Speaker 10: every single candidate, from Nicky Haley to Tim Scott on
Speaker 10: down to make Pen's and Chris Christy. They will bring
Speaker 10: up Trump occasionally, but the person to beat will be
Speaker 10: Rhonda Santis. He's already tanking in the full He was
Speaker 10: at thirty percent in the beginning of this year. Now
Speaker 10: he's below fifteen. That is a death spiral campaign, shakeups,
Speaker 10: et cetera. I have a friend to ask if we're
Speaker 10: going to have a watch party for the November eighth
Speaker 10: DeSantis Newsome debate. And the question is more, is he's
Speaker 10: still going to be one of the front runners in
Speaker 10: the race after these campaigns and after the debates At
Speaker 10: the primary side, I mean, their position on abortion is
Speaker 10: just as far to the right as you can get,
Speaker 10: and they just drive each other further, which alienates the
Speaker 10: entire general election base.
Speaker 3: So if it isn't Ron, decentis who is the front runner?
Speaker 3: Is it going to be Tim Scott? Is it going
Speaker 3: to be someone who's not even thrown their hat in
Speaker 3: the ring yet, like Glenn Youngkin?
Speaker 11: I think so, Lisa.
Speaker 10: I mean, there is a deadline of November sixteenth to
Speaker 10: get on the ballot in Nevada, and I think that
Speaker 10: that's a key deadline to look for. I think the
Speaker 10: money that has gone to Ron DeSantis could easily start
Speaker 10: flowing to another candidate.
Speaker 11: I do agree that.
Speaker 10: Tim Scott is the next most likely, but he pulls
Speaker 10: at three percent, so really Young Can or any of
Speaker 10: the other governors could step in?
Speaker 11: Son?
Speaker 10: You know, I know you is a frequent guest on
Speaker 10: your show, and I'd be interested to see whether or
Speaker 10: not he decides to change his mind in the wake
Speaker 10: of the four indictments or three now, but before becoming
Speaker 10: against Trump and DeSantis maybe not being the second runner up.
Speaker 1: There's been a belief construct Henrietta, which you have studied
Speaker 1: for years, going way way back, that the United States
Speaker 1: of America will always grow itself out of its debt troubles.
Speaker 5: Is that shaken right now? Is that fundation foundational belief? Shaken.
Speaker 10: I don't think so, because the appetite globally for debt
Speaker 10: just keeps expanding, and I don't think that's a US
Speaker 10: specific problem. And perhaps to be more honest about my answer, Tom,
Speaker 10: I don't see any lawmakers sincerely putting in the effort
Speaker 10: to reduce the deficit. So I don't think that debt
Speaker 10: is something that they are really going to look in
Speaker 10: the mirror and say, hey, maybe we shouldn't extend the
Speaker 10: twenty seventeen tax cuts for individuals beyond twenty twenty six.
Speaker 10: They're going to, they always do. We saw that movie
Speaker 10: in twenty ten, and to get in twenty twelve, it's
Speaker 10: going to wrap up the deficits substantially two trillion just
Speaker 10: for those tax provisions. And I don't see any real
Speaker 10: conversation until we get into a maybe untenable place with
Speaker 10: social security, Henriser.
Speaker 9: I want to finish on China if we can. The
Speaker 9: Biden administration, as you know, have put out their outbound
Speaker 9: Investment Order. The President is signed that. Here's the question
Speaker 9: for me, it's super narrow. China says, we're disappointed. I'm
Speaker 9: trying to work out if it's just to say, ay,
Speaker 9: we're doing something and be we're disappointed, but actually nothing
Speaker 9: really changes here. Is this just for public consumption or
Speaker 9: is this meaningful?
Speaker 10: You know, it's such an interesting question, and I was
Speaker 10: actually thinking about this before it came on the air
Speaker 10: last week. Lisa and y'all we were talking about the
Speaker 10: pitch down Green and one of the questions you asked
Speaker 10: was is the business community responding to what Congress is doing,
Speaker 10: what the administration is doing on the debt. To bring
Speaker 10: in Tom's question, what's interesting about this Investment Executive Order
Speaker 10: is that the business community is already ahead of it.
Speaker 10: If y'all had a great chart yesterday, I guess on
Speaker 10: venture capital in China and how it's declined since.
Speaker 11: The COVID era.
Speaker 10: It is a precipitous rise after twenty nineteen and an
Speaker 10: immediate fall. And that's on the venture capital side, obviously
Speaker 10: with Sequoia, but you probably get in the same kind
Speaker 10: of thing in the data on business side as well,
Speaker 10: where you have the Russia sanctions, export control restrictions. To
Speaker 10: sort of get to that question, the business community might
Speaker 10: not be afraid of Congress and what it's legislating, and
Speaker 10: maybe not this executive order, but for damn sure they're
Speaker 10: focused on the Bureau of Industry and Security and the
Speaker 10: Treasury and the IRS, and the efforts that they're going
Speaker 10: through to put sanctions, export control restrictions, investments restrictions, the
Speaker 10: entity list is going to be updated.
Speaker 11: Those are real tangible meat.
Speaker 10: And potatoes things that businesses have to respond to, and
Speaker 10: I think they are working, maybe just better than the timing.
Speaker 9: On an el Henridda, Thank you, Henrita trice A Fight Upon.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg