1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:25,720 Speaker 2: Let's get to a little m and a in the 7 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 2: media space. That Warner Brothers Discovery deal, the never ending 8 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 2: deal seems like it's moving a little bit forward. 9 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 3: Here. 10 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 4: We got a higher bid from Paramount. 11 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:36,360 Speaker 2: We want to check in Withkeetha rong Anath and she 12 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: covers all the media stocks for Bloomberg Intelligence. So Keitha talk, 13 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 2: give us the latest on this Warner Brothers Discovery sale process. 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 4: Where are we right now? 15 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, so, Paul, we got the higher number from Paramount. 16 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:52,879 Speaker 5: It's thirty one dollars. So they upted from thirty dollars 17 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:56,319 Speaker 5: per share for the entire company. Now, what that has 18 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 5: forced the Warner Brothers Discovery board to do is to 19 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 5: go back to the drawing board kind of re gauge 20 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 5: with Paramount see exactly what number they can come up with. 21 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,959 Speaker 5: But ultimately they have to deem whether this is a 22 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 5: superior proposal or not. So far, they have two offers 23 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 5: on the table, this one from Paramount and the twenty 24 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 5: seven dollars and seventy five cents per share from Netflix, 25 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 5: but that is only for part of the business. That's 26 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 5: only for the studio and the streaming acids. So they're 27 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,320 Speaker 5: still in the process of making a determination about which 28 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 5: offer is superior. But the minute that they you know, 29 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 5: that they make that determination and they call the Paramount 30 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 5: offers superior, then the clock starts sticking. For Netflix, they 31 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,080 Speaker 5: have four days to come up with their own enhanced 32 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 5: offer so to match the Paramount offer, and then you know, 33 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 5: we'll kind of see where the chips fall after that. 34 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, Gika, you know, I recall the word Brother's 35 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 6: board really did not like some of the financing terms 36 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 6: for the Paramount bid initially, right, So does this new 37 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 6: improved offer improve upon some of those sticking points in 38 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 6: the earlier deal in does that really de risk the 39 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 6: transit action? And now that they've come up with another 40 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 6: offer here. 41 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 5: They have all of the points that Warner Brothers had 42 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 5: initially raised. They have the Paramount management team has proposed remedies. 43 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,519 Speaker 5: So one of the big things that they have kind 44 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 5: of come up with is that they're going to cover 45 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 5: the financing costs and the termination fee if Netflix exits 46 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:25,119 Speaker 5: this process. They actually upped their own termination free from 47 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 5: five point nine billion to seven billion dollars. They are 48 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 5: going to pay something called a ticking fee, which is 49 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 5: twenty five cents per share per quarter for every quarter 50 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 5: that the transaction does not close beyond September. So they've 51 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 5: offered a lot of different things, including kind of backstopping 52 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 5: the whole equity portion of the deal as well as 53 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 5: providing guarantees for the debt financing. So a lot of 54 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 5: the points that Warner Brothers had initially raised. Your absolutely right, Christine. 55 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 5: You know, Paramount has kind of come out and addressed 56 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 5: that so definitely provide a lot more comfort to the 57 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 5: Warner Brothers Discovery board. 58 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, Githa, you're right. 59 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 2: It seems like Paramount's really stepped up and really said 60 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 2: we're going to be really credible here. Meanwhile, Netflix has 61 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 2: been quietly waiting on the sidelines, not really doing anything, 62 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 2: but it now seems like now's the time for them to, 63 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:21,120 Speaker 2: you know, really make a decision, step up with a bigger, 64 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 2: better offer, different offer. I'm not sure, what do you 65 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 2: think the options are for Netflix. 66 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 5: The best option in my view of Paul, for Netflix, 67 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 5: and I think majority of you know It's investors would 68 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 5: also agree to just walk away pocket the two point 69 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 5: eight billion that you get in termination fees, just walk 70 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 5: away and just focus on just focus on your core business, 71 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 5: because they do have a very strong core business. You know, 72 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 5: as we've said many times, Paul and you agree that this, 73 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 5: you know, Warner Brothers is a great asset, There's absolutely 74 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 5: no doubt about it. But it is really just a 75 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 5: nice to have, not a must have for Netflix. So 76 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 5: it could end up actually becoming a distraction. So you know, 77 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 5: in many cases. I mean, I think the way that 78 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 5: you know, the street almost perceives it is that Netflix 79 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 5: is a winner if they lose this whole bidding process. 80 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 5: But that said, I mean, they do have a lot 81 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 5: of financial firepower. If they did have to increase their 82 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 5: bid up it by about one two dollars, they absolutely 83 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 5: can do that. The only thing is once they go 84 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 5: beyond that, then they kind of risk over paying for 85 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 5: the asset. They risk their leverage profile really kind of 86 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 5: getting a little bit dangerous. I would say, I mean, 87 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 5: the gross stut is going to be well above one 88 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 5: hundred billion dollars, leverage could be at four times. They're 89 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 5: at zero points six times right now, so you know, 90 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 5: all of those things start kind of coming into question. 91 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 5: But of course they have a great free cash flow profile, 92 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 5: so deleveraging wouldn't be an issue. That said, there still 93 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 5: are you know, integration and execution risks always with any 94 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 5: MNA deal. 95 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 7: Yeah. 96 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 6: Well, so if Paramount does indeed win the deal, does 97 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 6: that present stronger competition for Netflix at least in the 98 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 6: streaming space. 99 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 5: I mean, it definitely will to some extent, But I 100 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 5: think what Netflix and everybody else is banking on is 101 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 5: that average is just going to be so high for 102 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 5: the combined Paramount Warner Brothers Discovery that you know, at 103 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 5: least for the first couple of years. I think they're 104 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,600 Speaker 5: just going to be really focused on kind of driving 105 00:05:10,640 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 5: costs down, hitting their synergy targets, not really being able 106 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 5: to invest in the business. But again, it's you know, 107 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 5: it all comes down to exactly what the number is 108 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 5: going to be. But you're right, they definitely will be 109 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 5: a stronger competitor, although I don't think it's going to 110 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 5: be a make or break for Netflix at all. 111 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 4: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 112 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us Live 113 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 114 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 115 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 116 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 6: All right, let's move on there to John Tucker. What 117 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 6: are John Talker's favorite stocks? And that is low reporting results, 118 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 6: and I'll say. 119 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 8: The difference between Low's and Home Depot. I find more 120 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 8: women at Low's than Home Depot. Used to know. Yeah, 121 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 8: I wasn't saying that. I'm just like saying just my observation. 122 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 4: Okay, why is it? I wonder it's more like. 123 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 8: Non professional Yeah, yeah, I guess we're d y. But 124 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 8: apparently Paul is going there to pick people up. 125 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 6: So can I just say that the demographic demographic of 126 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 6: women might not be interested in you, Paul? 127 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 4: Okay, yeah, no surprise. 128 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 2: And John Tucker, speaking of do it yourself, he just 129 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 2: fixed our microphone here in our studio. 130 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 4: Folks, we had a professional commenter, Johnson. Now I got it. Yeah, 131 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 4: that's okay. 132 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 8: We do it all year. 133 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 4: Don't worry, Anthony. We got it very much. 134 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 6: A product of Low's e y. But all right, well, 135 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:46,360 Speaker 6: so let's get to Lowe's. What is the preview there? 136 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 6: And with that, let's bring in Drew Redding, who is 137 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 6: the Boomer intelligence US home a building analyst, Drew, what 138 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 6: is going to be the takeaway? 139 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 3: So Low's reporter earlier this morning, and overall it was, 140 00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 3: you know, a solid quarter. They had a nice beat 141 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 3: on on same store sales really due to the strength 142 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 3: of their professional customers and their e commerce channel. They 143 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 3: had about a fifty basis point lift from recent storms. 144 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 3: You know, you see the stock is down about four 145 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,119 Speaker 3: to five percent. There's a couple of things going on there. 146 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 3: They guided the same store sales for twenty twenty six 147 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 3: being about flat to up two percent. While that's exactly 148 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 3: you know, in line with what we heard from home 149 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 3: depot consensus was on the higher end of that. We 150 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 3: think there could be a little bit of conservatism in there, 151 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: which rightfully so, given where we are with housing. Also, 152 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 3: there's a modest earnings reset for the company. You know, 153 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 3: the midport of their guidance was about four percent below 154 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 3: the street and really that's a reflection of weaker that 155 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 3: expected operating margins and that's largely due to some of 156 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 3: the acquisitions they've made over the last couple of years. 157 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 3: So there's a little bit of company specific noise in there. 158 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 3: The other thing that's going on with the stock and really, 159 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 3: if you look across the housing space as a whole, 160 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 3: whether you're talking about the builders, that building product, manufacturers, developers, 161 00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 3: really anyone, they're all read across the board. And I 162 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 3: think that has to do with the lack of dialogue 163 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 3: around housing policy. During the State of the Union address 164 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 3: last night, you know, we heard a victory lap on 165 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 3: mortgage rates, which has certainly come down, but it was 166 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 3: really just a reiteration of the administration's planned to ban 167 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 3: institutional parts is So, I think a lot of investors, 168 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 3: you know, across the housing landscape, including home improvement retailer, 169 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 3: we're hoping for some policy that could really stoke the 170 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 3: housing market. 171 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 2: So I'm looking at the Mortgage Bankers Association thirty year 172 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 2: fixed mortgage six point zero nine percent. 173 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 4: That's as low as it's been in a long time. 174 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 2: Is it low enough to get folks out of their homes, 175 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 2: you know, and free up the existing home buyer market. 176 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're right, we're about one hundred basis points below 177 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 3: where we were just a year ago, and certainly every 178 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 3: you know, every tike lower and mortgage rates is going 179 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 3: to help bring that incremental buyer off the fence. Typically, 180 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 3: what we hear is that's something in that five and 181 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 3: a half percent range is kind of that magic number. 182 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 3: Now that being said, you know, as we've as we've 183 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 3: said for a long time, it's not just about mortgage rates. 184 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 3: They've certainly helped affordability. They've brought monthly payments down, but 185 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 3: home prices continue to rise through up more than fifty 186 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 3: percent since twenty nineteen. So when you look at, you know, 187 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 3: a more holistic view of housing affordability, it's still really constrained. 188 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 3: You know. The other thing that we continue to hear, 189 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 3: whether it's from the retailers or from the builders, is that, 190 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 3: you know, buyers are increasingly concerned about the economy. They're 191 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 3: increasingly concerned about the outlook for the labor market. So 192 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 3: there's a lack of urgency out there. You know, you 193 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 3: also have a lot of people maybe sitting on the 194 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 3: fence because you know, they're saying to themselves, look, maybe 195 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 3: home prices are going to come down, maybe rates are 196 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 3: going to come down further and maybe I should wait 197 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 3: before making such a big purchasing decision. 198 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 7: Yeah. 199 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 6: Well, so if that sort of turned over a new 200 00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 6: housing buyers, that's still going to be stalled given the 201 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 6: uncertainty in the macro environment with something like repair and 202 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 6: remodels spending, that segment of lowest customers, is that something 203 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 6: that's going to be enough to carry them through? And 204 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 6: I suppose for the rest of the house building sector. 205 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 3: Yeah. For the home improvement retailers specifically, I think demand 206 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 3: has been pretty stable, if not modestly improving. If you 207 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 3: look at compstore sales on a to your basis, there 208 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 3: was a little bit of an uptick this quarter, so 209 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 3: I think their customer has been pretty resilient. When you 210 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 3: think about what's holding back more robust growth in the sector, 211 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 3: it's really that big ticket discretionary spending. These are categories 212 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 3: like large scale kitchen and bathroom moodels, maybe a big 213 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 3: flooring project, you know, replacing all the doors and windows 214 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 3: in your house, and these are things that typically tend 215 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 3: to be financed. So with rates at an elevated level, 216 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 3: you've seen a pullback in that. And it also goes 217 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,599 Speaker 3: back to what we've said on confidence. You know, with 218 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 3: less confidence in the home, the direction of home prices, 219 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 3: you have people who are maybe waiting to take on 220 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 3: those bigger ticket projects. 221 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 4: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 222 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 223 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 224 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 225 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 226 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 6: We're going to be talking a little bit about retail 227 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 6: now and for that, let's bring in maryor Ross Gilbert 228 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 6: to Bloomberg Intelligence, senior equity analyst, joining us from a 229 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 6: sunny la very different from the weather that we're seeing 230 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 6: over here in New York. Mary, thank you so much 231 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 6: for joining us. Let's start with TJ Max because we 232 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 6: did get that disappointing outlook from them, and very surprising 233 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 6: right because they did have a strong holiday season, but 234 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 6: it seems like they're guiding expectations now for the future. 235 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 6: What's to take away from that is this whole customer's 236 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 6: trading down to more affordable goods. Is that flocks over 237 00:11:58,280 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 6: now for TJ Max? 238 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 9: Thank you, Christine, But actually TGX is known for providing 239 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 9: conservative guidance. So even though this guidance is coming in 240 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:12,360 Speaker 9: below what analysts expect for the first quarter already, if 241 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 9: you look at the first quarter and the company said this, 242 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 9: they're off to a great start. When we looked at 243 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 9: the Bloomberg second Measure transaction data, we're seeing really robust sales. 244 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,760 Speaker 9: So it looks like a huge beat right now. The 245 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 9: trend that we're seeing, it's very early in the first quarter, 246 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 9: but it's looking very, very strong. And I think when 247 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 9: you think about TGX, this company, the management team here 248 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 9: executes so seamlessly, and the brands that they have, which 249 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 9: include Stuart White Weitzmann's Jeweled sandals for example, you can 250 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 9: get rag and Bone attire and. 251 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 4: Consumers love it. 252 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 2: So I mean I am looking at the stock actually 253 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 2: is up about nine tens a one percent today at 254 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 2: a fifty two week high. 255 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 4: So good news there. Mary. 256 00:13:00,559 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 2: What's the company saying about the consumer out there? You know, 257 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 2: we've got the K shaped economy. I'm not sure how 258 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 2: TGX kind of plays within that marketplace, but what are 259 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: they seeing? 260 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 9: Yeah, so, Paul, you raise a valid point the K 261 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 9: shaped economy. The thing about TGX when you think about 262 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,320 Speaker 9: all of the off price retailers, they're in the best 263 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 9: position to appeal to consumers across all income cohorts. So 264 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 9: they've got the brands that include Selene, Chloe, Gucci, Brunello, Cucinelli. 265 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 9: But then they'll have brands like Theory or Eli Tahari, 266 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 9: so they Nike Puma. So they really cover brands across 267 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 9: the spectrum that appeal to consumers across both the high 268 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 9: end all the way down to those consumers that are 269 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 9: really paycheck to paycheck. And so that's what makes them 270 00:13:56,200 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 9: in a great position and why they're business mind model 271 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 9: really works. And when you think about home goods, everybody 272 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,199 Speaker 9: shops home goods. Whenever you go to a dinner party, 273 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 9: what you're seeing there on the table likely came from 274 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 9: home goods. 275 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 6: All very interesting us in the retail space. Kind of 276 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 6: the developments that we're seeing as a result of that 277 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 6: K shaped economy that Paul mentioned, because you know, in contrast, 278 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 6: we did have the Sax CEO, of course, on Bloomberg 279 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 6: TV yesterday talking about where they are in the chapter 280 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 6: eleven process. But they're also saying that, you know, hundreds 281 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 6: of luxury brands are shipping again, and then at the 282 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 6: same time, you know TJX holding a relatively Well, what 283 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 6: does this tell us about the state of consumers? You know, 284 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 6: are you seeing some kind of a bifurcation where these segments, 285 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 6: certain segments are doing better than others. 286 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 9: Yeah, So I would say that we're seeing strength across 287 00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 9: all consumers really, and you see it with the consumer 288 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 9: confidence data. But most importantly, I think whenever you have 289 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 9: strong employment, which we have had for many years now, 290 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 9: and that really keeps the consumer resilience. So even if 291 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 9: you're sort of going paycheck to paycheck, when you're employed, 292 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,520 Speaker 9: you feel really good and you might cut back on 293 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 9: some essentials just so that you can get something new 294 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 9: that makes you feel good. So I really see strength 295 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 9: across all consumer segments. It really comes down to the 296 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,360 Speaker 9: retailer and their ability to execute. So when you see 297 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 9: companies that are outperforming, it's because they're executing. And that's 298 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 9: really the delineation that we see there. 299 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 2: Hey, Mary, the Supreme Court and our president just brought 300 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 2: terrrifs right back to the front burner again. I wonder 301 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 2: if the good folks a TGX had any thoughts about 302 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 2: what seems to be a new round or a renewed 303 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 2: interest in tariffs. 304 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 9: Yes, well, so the tariff question is going to be 305 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 9: top of mind with the fourth quarter earnings coming in. 306 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 9: And TJX though, because they buy primarily closeouts, like less 307 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 9: than ten percent, they're sourcing directly, so they're really not 308 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 9: that impacted by tariffs. It's so small for them because, 309 00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 9: like I said, over ninety percent of the inventory that 310 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 9: they're sourcing is closeouts and they see tremendous availability of closeouts, 311 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 9: so they're not impacted. But we did have news out 312 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 9: today that Steve Madden decided not to provide margin guidance. 313 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 9: They did provide sales guidance, which was strong, but they 314 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 9: decided not to provide that guidance because they felt that 315 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 9: there was some uncertainty. But when you look at it, 316 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 9: we already know the tariffs that went into place prior 317 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 9: to the ten percent that went into effect, so you 318 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 9: know that you get at least of fifty percent savings 319 00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 9: for one hundred and fifty days on new shipments, and 320 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 9: then once they issue the executive order for fifteen percent, 321 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 9: then you'll have a twenty five percent saving. So that's 322 00:16:52,680 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 9: really the best way to look at what the margin 323 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 9: impact could be and most of these companies are passing 324 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 9: on those pricing press and then they're also employing other 325 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 9: mitigation measures, including sharing with the suppliers. 326 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 4: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming. 327 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 2: Up there for this. 328 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 329 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Cocklay and Android 330 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 331 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,200 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 332 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 2: Certainly, if you're a tech investor, you've been dealing with 333 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 2: the other side of AI, which is to what extent 334 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 2: is AI threat to my business? And that's been a 335 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:38,320 Speaker 2: real big problem for a lot of sectors out there, 336 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 2: including software. Software as a service has certainly been dealing 337 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 2: with that over the last several weeks. We're gonna check 338 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,159 Speaker 2: in with anurag Ruana and get the latest there on 339 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 2: our run as senior tech analyst covers all the tech 340 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 2: stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence, Honour, talk to us about the 341 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 2: conversations you're having with institutional investors these days, because you know, 342 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 2: several weeks ago solved just a big, big sell on 343 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 2: your whole software sector. 344 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 4: There where are we tay on that. 345 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:06,640 Speaker 7: It's been okay the last two days, but and things 346 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 7: will probably change by the time next week comes around 347 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 7: because the you know, the discussion around here is not 348 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 7: so much about what's happening to the earnings power or 349 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 7: sales growth over the next twelve to twenty four months. 350 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 7: The big question is whether these guys will be relevant 351 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,159 Speaker 7: five years from or not. And when you put a 352 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 7: question on somebody's terminal value, then you know there is 353 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:26,959 Speaker 7: no argument. 354 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:28,040 Speaker 4: It's a one out or zero. 355 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 7: So there are those that think that some of them 356 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,640 Speaker 7: will be fine and maybe even grow stronger, and there 357 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 7: are certain companies that will be disrupted quite a bit. 358 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 7: So I think that's where the dilemma is. At this point, 359 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 7: people are just telling the entire index. They're not even 360 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 7: looking at some of the bigger ones or the better 361 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:45,439 Speaker 7: ones at this point. 362 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, well, Honuric, let's get into which ones are the 363 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 6: bigger ones and the better ones, right, because we've seen 364 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 6: so far the most vulnerable vulnerable names seem to be 365 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 6: companies in online travel or smaller software first, but then 366 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 6: meanwhile cybersecurity it seems to be relatively insulated from the 367 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 6: recent baout of caution that we've seen. You know, is 368 00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:09,439 Speaker 6: that a sector or a segment within this space that 369 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 6: could actually benefit from increased spending on security. 370 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, we did publish a big report yesterday 371 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 7: and we have put out a framework where we have 372 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,320 Speaker 7: looked at four or five different segments or different factors. 373 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 7: So if somebody has a very high market share, are 374 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 7: they selling into an enterprise or a smaller business, do 375 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 7: they have network effect? And are they a platform or 376 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,959 Speaker 7: a point product company? So, you know, let's you mentioned cybersecurity. 377 00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 7: This is an area that is doing better than the 378 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 7: others and in fact could even benefit down the road 379 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,919 Speaker 7: if a lot of the agents that you know, people 380 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 7: will create would need to have their own identity, would 381 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 7: need to have their own safeguards around it. But you know, 382 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,919 Speaker 7: there are certain places where we will see more disruptions. 383 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 4: Online travel is one area you. 384 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 7: Mentioned, and even the smaller software names, whether that's in HR, 385 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 7: whether it's since sales automation, I think they are the 386 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 7: most at risk of getting disrupted. 387 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 2: What are the companies saying here? Do they acknowledge that 388 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 2: AI is a threat to their business? Are they trying 389 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 2: to pivot? Are they ignoring it? What are you hearing 390 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 2: from the companies these days. 391 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,440 Speaker 7: So everybody's pivoting at a very fast pace. I'll name 392 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 7: a couple of examples. You know, a company like Workday, 393 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,399 Speaker 7: which is the de facto leader in HR software, they 394 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,360 Speaker 7: are creating their own agents and down the road, when 395 00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 7: you and I will interact with an HR software company, 396 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 7: it would be through a chat pok or could be conversational. 397 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 4: There is a company called Figma. 398 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 7: It has added more AI capabilities to its core software. 399 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 7: So when you're developing the software, you're actually giving prompts 400 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 7: to say this is what I want the design to 401 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 7: look like, and then it pops up something you know 402 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,640 Speaker 7: on the system rather than doing it, you know, bit 403 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,160 Speaker 7: by bit using the software. So there is a lot 404 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 7: of push by these companies. But you know, that's where 405 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 7: the question is whether it's going to lead to lower 406 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 7: margins because this is an expensive way to do things, 407 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 7: or whether it leads to the AI native company coming 408 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:07,600 Speaker 7: and taking their market share. 409 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, very interesting on that subject. Analog of you know, 410 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 6: some companies moving to create their own agents, as you mentioned, 411 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 6: because yeah, is that something that could potentially drive a 412 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 6: wedge also between these companies that are vulnerable to a 413 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 6: disruption We had Sarah Hunt earlier mentioning that if you're 414 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 6: a company that owns the tech, that owns the proprietary data, 415 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,360 Speaker 6: you're fine. But maybe if you're leaning on somebody else 416 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 6: to provide that for you, maybe or not would you 417 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:33,640 Speaker 6: agree with that? 418 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,080 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, if you have your own data, that's fine. 419 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 7: But at the end of the day, it's customers data. 420 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 7: I mean, it's Bank of America's data, it's JP Morgan's data. 421 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 7: So if they decide to give access to an m 422 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 7: A or an anthropic or an open eye to that data, 423 00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 7: so you know, it's up to them. Frankly, I understand 424 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 7: you can't log into somebody's software and try to get 425 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 7: that data out of it. So I understand a lot 426 00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 7: of these arguments, but frankly speaking, when disruption happens, it 427 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 7: happens very fast. 428 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:06,679 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 429 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 430 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 431 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 432 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 433 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,760 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal