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Speaker 1: Pushkin, we're back bringing this thing in for a landing.

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Speaker 1: I think we can now all agree. It's not just

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Speaker 1: the law that changed when the US allowed states to

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Speaker 1: legalize sports gambling back in twenty eighteen. An entire region

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Speaker 1: of the American brain has been wipe clean and replaced

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Speaker 1: with new software. Somehow, sports gambling went from this slightly

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Speaker 1: naughty activity you had to go out of your way

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Speaker 1: to engage in to smack dab in the center of

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Speaker 1: American culture. It's very obviously overrun American colleges. It's less

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Speaker 1: obviously overrun American high schools too.

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Speaker 2: What happened to one of my friends was that one

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Speaker 2: of his friends tried to abandon this bookie, and then

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Speaker 2: he sent him his house addressed oh my God, which

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Speaker 2: she had never given to him. He distracked his ipea

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Speaker 2: address from how he's placing bets.

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Speaker 1: That's Andrew Mitchell, now at College Junior, but remembering his

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Speaker 1: high school gambling ring and a bookie on Snapchat named Foco.

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Speaker 1: He's talking to LJ, my producer, who ran down so

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Speaker 1: many similar stories from boys all over the country that

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Speaker 1: she no longer asked them whether their high school has

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Speaker 1: a sports gambling ring. Instead, she asked them who runs it?

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Speaker 1: Andrew she found in upstate New York.

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Speaker 2: So there's kind of this informal insurance that it's really

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Speaker 2: just a threat to kids that I don't know how

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Speaker 2: much you can do with the house address or what

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Speaker 2: the stakes actually would have been, but it's a pretty

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Speaker 2: scary thing when you're already doing something you know is

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Speaker 2: illegal and then you sent your address after you try

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Speaker 2: to pull a fast.

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Speaker 3: One on someone.

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Speaker 2: My high school is just like one part of it.

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Speaker 2: I know in the public schools in our area there

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Speaker 2: were huge betting rings for kids were losing so much

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Speaker 2: money and betting so much money.

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Speaker 1: It occurred to me that Andrew's old problem is my

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Speaker 1: new one. I have a seventeen year old son. His

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Speaker 1: name is Walker. At some point i'd need to have

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Speaker 1: the talk with him. Now, I say this as someone

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Speaker 1: who is not a big fan of having the talk.

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Speaker 1: I didn't really want to have the talk with him

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Speaker 1: about sex back in the day, but that was all

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Speaker 1: right because in middle school he had an entire class

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Speaker 1: on the subject that went into such graphic detail. I

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Speaker 1: had to keep my eyes covered with a pillow. I

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Speaker 1: did say something to him, like anything you want to

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Speaker 1: know about sex, just ask me. Of course he never did.

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Speaker 1: He's way too smart. The gambling talk is different than

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Speaker 1: the sex talk, and maybe more necessary because his school

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a class called sports gambling education. Plus there's

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Speaker 1: no generally accepted body of knowledge on the subject. So

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Speaker 1: I wasn't even clear in my own head what this

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Speaker 1: talk should consist of. I mean, apart from telling him

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Speaker 1: how dumb it is to hand your lunch money to DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: that would only make him want to do it more.

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Speaker 1: Even if somehow I knew exactly the right thing to

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Speaker 1: say to inoculate my child against this new threat to

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Speaker 1: his well being, or at least prevent him from being

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Speaker 1: kneecapped by some bookie, he'd be unlikely to listen. In

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Speaker 1: my experience, if you want your seventeen year old to

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Speaker 1: listen to you, you have to say something that could

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Speaker 1: be used against you in the court of law. Then

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Speaker 1: they hear every word you say and record it for

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Speaker 1: future use by the prosecution. And so while I saw

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Speaker 1: that I needed to have the talk, I also realized

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Speaker 1: that the talk was pointless. Walker was already too old,

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Speaker 1: too dismissive of me. I had to find some other

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Speaker 1: way to teach my son the tools he needs to

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Speaker 1: navigate a world in which sophisticated corporations will try to

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Speaker 1: lead him to his ruin. Anyway, that's my excuse for

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Speaker 1: why I did what I did.

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Speaker 4: Next, Okay, let me give you guys the assignment formally,

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Speaker 4: which is that Michael's going to give you, guys five

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Speaker 4: thousand dollars and you can spend it however you want

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Speaker 4: on sports betting. But you're supposed to win, like you're

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Speaker 4: supposed to make more.

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Speaker 5: That's always a goal, right.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's Walker, who, by the way, in his English

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Speaker 1: class the other day, asks the twenty five other kids

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Speaker 1: for a show of hands, who here is a sports gambler.

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Speaker 1: All the boys except one those zero of the girls

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Speaker 1: raise their hands, even though all of them were under

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Speaker 1: the age of eighteen and sports gambling is still illegal

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Speaker 1: in California. Anyway, I love him, even if he doesn't

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Speaker 1: listen to me. His immune system is like the immune

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Speaker 1: system of all teenage boys. What I want to create

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Speaker 1: in him I think of as a vaccine. I'm going

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Speaker 1: to hand him a sum of money that'll get his

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Speaker 1: attention for him to use to bet on sports. He

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Speaker 1: can keep the winnings, but there won't be any winnings,

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Speaker 1: of course, just humiliation. The humiliation will create the antibodies.

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Speaker 1: I won't be directly involved. If I were, he wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be as interested. My producers will supervise his education and

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Speaker 1: record it.

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Speaker 6: When should you start?

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Speaker 5: I'm ready to go right now.

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Speaker 6: I think you're supposed to have like a learning period.

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Speaker 7: It's like, Michael is.

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Speaker 5: Interesting those actual skill to it?

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Speaker 6: Are you asking that?

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Speaker 5: I guess I was walking into this hope and it

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Speaker 5: was just like, I don't know. I'm walking into this

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Speaker 5: hoping to learn, but I just I doubt. I mean,

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Speaker 5: you see people winning, but like, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: That's the wrong attitude.

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Speaker 1: And that's Tom, not his real name. We've also disguised

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Speaker 1: his voice because well, I don't want to get Tom

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Speaker 1: into any trouble. He's a good kid, three years older

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Speaker 1: than Walker and now a student at a very fancy college.

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Speaker 1: But he and Walker used to play basketball together and

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Speaker 1: Walker really likes him. I roped Tom into this experiment

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Speaker 1: mainly because he'd been gambling on sports since he was

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Speaker 1: in high school, and I thought whatever he's learned might

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Speaker 1: rub off on Walker. But as it turns, out. The

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Speaker 1: main thing that Tom learned was how to evade the

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Speaker 1: laws that forbid children from gambling on sports.

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Speaker 3: There's an Alpha Fliff and I don't know exactly what

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Speaker 3: the rules are around it, but I know that legally,

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Speaker 3: on that app I can use it because I had

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Speaker 3: to submit that I picture of my driver's license and

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Speaker 3: then and I guess had to say that I was

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Speaker 3: from California.

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Speaker 1: Yes, if you're a teenager who wants to lay down

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Speaker 1: five grand of your dad's money on sports, you don't

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Speaker 1: even need an illegal bookie anymore. You might not be

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Speaker 1: able to get an account with DraftKings or fan Duel,

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Speaker 1: but you can get onto any one of a number

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Speaker 1: of shady gray market apps. Fliff turns your money into

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Speaker 1: fliff cash, and gambling with Fliff cash somehow makes it

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Speaker 1: all legal. But since you can turn your fliff cash

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Speaker 1: back into dollars, it's hard to see why cool.

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Speaker 4: And I asked you this before, kind of like, well,

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Speaker 4: like how you thought you were going to do.

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I hope to like plus five ten percent. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I guess I'll send an expectation of plus is Isa

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Speaker 3: Golbank plus.

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Speaker 6: Two hundred percent plus two hundred percent.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's the most.

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Speaker 1: Again, their goal is to turn five grand into fifteen.

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Speaker 1: My goal is for them to learn the insanity of

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Speaker 1: their goal. I think my goal is admirable, but I

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Speaker 1: do have a sense that not everyone in my house

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Speaker 1: agrees confirmed when my producer, Catherine Gerardeau investigates.

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Speaker 8: So I understand Michael has been encouraging Walker to engage

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Speaker 8: in sports betting, and I wanted to talk to you

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Speaker 8: about how you feel about that.

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Speaker 9: The idea is that Walker will be exposed to sports

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Speaker 9: betting and get guided through the process so he understands

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Speaker 9: the winds as well as the losses, since that probably

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Speaker 9: happens more often than not.

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Speaker 1: That's Walker's mother, my wife, Kabitha.

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Speaker 9: And it's supposed to be a learning experience. That's that's

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Speaker 9: the glasses half version. And what's your perspective on that.

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Speaker 9: I'm not an expert in all teenage boys, but from

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Speaker 9: the anecdotal information I have from other mothers with teenage boys,

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Speaker 9: I think that the attraction and the addiction to the

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Speaker 9: dopamine response that you get from video games is complete

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Speaker 9: parallel to the addiction response to sports betting.

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Speaker 5: So to me, that is not a good thing to encourage.

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Speaker 9: I hope that he walks away from it feeling like

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Speaker 9: it's not something he wants to partake in.

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Speaker 5: But I can't control that.

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Speaker 9: He's almost eighteen and he doesn't listen to a word

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Speaker 9: I say.

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Speaker 1: When our son won't listen to my wife, she often

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Speaker 1: turns to me and says, can you please talk to him,

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Speaker 1: as if his unwillingness to listen to her somehow imply

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Speaker 1: as a desire to listen to me. As I say,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't. My son won't listen to me either, but

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Speaker 1: maybe you will. Since I'm Michael Lewis and this is

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Speaker 1: against the rules, So I've set my child loose in

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Speaker 1: the sports gambling markets with five thousand dollars. I've told

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Speaker 1: him that I'm leaving him to figure it out for himself,

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Speaker 1: but that if he wants help, I know some experts

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Speaker 1: he can call. Because here's another funny thing about trying

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Speaker 1: to teach your seventeen year old son anything. He might

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Speaker 1: not listen to a word you say, but so long

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Speaker 1: as you are nowhere in sight, he will listen to

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Speaker 1: your friends. I don't know why this is, but it's true.

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Speaker 1: I gave Walker our phone number for Rufus Peabody. Rufus

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Speaker 1: is the pro sports gambler who starred in some of

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Speaker 1: our earlier episodes. What makes Rufus great as a teacher

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Speaker 1: of child gamblers is that, even though he's made millions

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Speaker 1: gambling on sports, he doesn't think gambling on sports is

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Speaker 1: a noble way to spend your life life. What makes

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Speaker 1: rufe Is less great as a teacher of child gamblers

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Speaker 1: is that he's worried about breaking the law sports.

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Speaker 10: Betting is I leave you in California?

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Speaker 5: How the fuck am I using Cliff then?

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Speaker 10: Because Fliff isn't sports betting, that's what they claim. It's

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Speaker 10: the sweepstakes. Oh my god, I know it's yeah.

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Speaker 5: And kids are allowed to do it or whatever. Why

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Speaker 5: is there so much?

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Speaker 10: Why?

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Speaker 5: Why was I allowed to put my own money from

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Speaker 5: my bank account in the app?

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Speaker 10: Because you don't have to be what You don't have

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Speaker 10: to be twenty one, you only have to be eighteen.

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Speaker 5: I'm seventy.

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Speaker 10: Yes, great, really, yeah, that's that's fucked up.

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Speaker 5: That's yeah.

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Speaker 6: But didn't you need to put your social security in Walker?

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Speaker 5: Your social Security number? I don't even know it. I

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Speaker 5: don't know my social Security number.

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Speaker 3: It was.

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Speaker 1: At that point, you can almost hear Rufus make one

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Speaker 1: of his expected value calculations. He's working out that the

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Speaker 1: expected value of taking a minor on a sports gambling

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Speaker 1: journey in a state where sports gambling is illegal is negative.

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Speaker 10: I'll connect you with Captain Jack. Have you talked to

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Speaker 10: him in the pastor now?

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Speaker 6: No, I don't know him.

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Speaker 10: I think this is right in his wheelhouse.

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Speaker 1: And with that, Rufus passed Walker and Tom off to

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Speaker 1: another sports gambler, someone called Captain Jack.

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Speaker 11: So I mean, off the bat, I'll let you guys

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Speaker 11: know that like ninety eight percent of sports betters don't

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Speaker 11: make money in the long.

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Speaker 1: Run, and that's Captain Jack.

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Speaker 11: It's very easy to go on like Twitter x and

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Speaker 11: find somebody that says they are winning eighty percent of

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Speaker 11: the time, and you go, okay, I'll just follow this guy.

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Speaker 11: Most of those people aren't. In fact, I would say

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Speaker 11: all of those people aren't winning eighty percent of the

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Speaker 11: time because truth of the matter is, it's very tough

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Speaker 11: to win fifty five percent of the time, and fifty

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Speaker 11: five percent isn't sexy, So they're not trying to sell

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Speaker 11: you fifty five percent. They try to sell you some

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Speaker 11: unattainable number.

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Speaker 1: Captain Jack tells them some stuff that listeners to this

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Speaker 1: season already know why. In order to make money gambling

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Speaker 1: on sports you need to make it even more miserable

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Speaker 1: than an ordinary job. How the professional gambler needs to

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Speaker 1: constantly scour all the world's sports books in search of

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Speaker 1: odds that are out of whack. Captain Jack was inadvertly

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Speaker 1: raising some obvious questions for the teenage sports gambler.

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Speaker 5: Is it possible to make money just off of one

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Speaker 5: site like Fliff?

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Speaker 3: With Fliff?

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Speaker 11: It's possible because Fliff isn't the sharpest sports book in

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Speaker 11: the world. You can find edges at Fliff.

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Speaker 3: Just for us, Like, how do you recommend us trying

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Speaker 3: to find these edges? How do you recommend us we're

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Speaker 3: looking for these?

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Speaker 11: There are situations that it's called arbitrage where you're guaranteed

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Speaker 11: to win.

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Speaker 1: Captain Jack explains that you can win systematically at sports

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Speaker 1: gambling only by having either better information or better ways

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Speaker 1: to analyze the information. But there is one exception. If

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Speaker 1: you can find different prices for exactly the same bet

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Speaker 1: at different sports bookies, then buy the low one and

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Speaker 1: sell the high one.

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Speaker 11: But you guys only have one out. You guys only

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Speaker 11: have fliff, So you're not going to find a situation

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Speaker 11: where you can bet both sides of the game at fliff.

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Speaker 5: Do you maybe I feel like, well, I feel like

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Speaker 5: it'd be possible for us to, like, I don't know,

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Speaker 5: use someone who is out of state or not even

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Speaker 5: out of state, but just like says they're out of

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Speaker 5: state and it's above the age of twenty one to

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Speaker 5: like get onto all these.

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Speaker 11: So most of these are regulated books in other states,

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Speaker 11: and they all use geolocation software that make sure you

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Speaker 11: are geographically in the state that you say you are,

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Speaker 11: so it's tough to fool them.

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Speaker 5: Can you just use a VPN?

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Speaker 11: No, these use basically like location services on your phone,

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Speaker 11: which actually knows where you are really for a site

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Speaker 11: like fandol or DraftKings or Caesar's at MGM ESPN bet.

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Speaker 11: They definitely put a lot of attention into geolocation because

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Speaker 11: they would be a violating the Federal Wire Act to

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Speaker 11: allow people to bet across the state line, so they

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Speaker 11: take it pretty seriously.

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Speaker 5: Ish, I sense we're a little fucked.

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Speaker 1: I sense we're a little fucked. That's my child doing

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Speaker 1: me proud. Seeing the world as it is rather than

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Speaker 1: how he would like it to be.

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Speaker 11: One word of advice is you probably do not want

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Speaker 11: to create a audible record of you guys violating federal law.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I still have to get into college, don't It's

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Speaker 5: not worth it.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to violate the Federal Wire Act. They'll

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Speaker 1: just use Fliff and then do what the vast majority

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Speaker 1: of other sports gamblers do, which means that every bet

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Speaker 1: they make will be less likely to win than to lose.

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Speaker 1: For this reason, Captain Jack thinks they should just make

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Speaker 1: one giant bet and be done with it. Put the

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Speaker 1: entire wad of my five thousand dollars on a single

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Speaker 1: game or even a single player, and live with the results.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they'll get lucky. But before he waives them goodbye,

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Speaker 1: Captain does offer one tiny glimmer of hope.

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Speaker 11: Different types of sports betting are easier to beat than

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Speaker 11: other types of sports betting. So if you were to

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Speaker 11: go onto the Fliff app and you were to pull

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Speaker 11: up a baseball game for tonight, you could bet on

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Speaker 11: which team will win. You could bet on how much

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Speaker 11: they'll win by, you could bet on the total runs

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Speaker 11: scored in the game. But then you can also bet

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Speaker 11: on player performance in the game, how many strikeouts the

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Speaker 11: pitcher will have, how many hits a certain player will have,

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Speaker 11: will this player hit a home run or not. Those

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Speaker 11: are called prop bets, and those prop bets are far

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Speaker 11: easier to beat than how many total runs are going

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Speaker 11: to be scored or which team is going to win.

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Speaker 11: So for you guys, I would focus on those prop

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Speaker 11: bets player performance. It's also more fun.

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Speaker 5: Are there greater than prop bets, like getting into an

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Speaker 5: exact probit, Like having like Kitlyn Clark score like eight

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Speaker 5: threes in the game. Seems pretty exact, Is there like

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Speaker 5: four more?

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Speaker 3: Exactly?

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Speaker 11: They're usually Katelyn Clark over under two and a half

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Speaker 11: three pointers in the game. Yeah, it's over unders. In fact,

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Speaker 11: the exact ones are very hard to hit. That was

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Speaker 11: a good good example Walker. The average sports better loves

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Speaker 11: to see things happen, Okay, so they tend to bet overs.

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Speaker 11: So there's usually a little more value in the under

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Speaker 11: than the over. But in your brain you're always going

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Speaker 11: to be wired because you want to see things happen.

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Speaker 11: Nobody likes to root for an under. They don't like

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Speaker 11: to root for like no, no, no, don't get a hit. No, no, no,

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Speaker 11: don't get a strikeout. They tend to like to see

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Speaker 11: things happen, So try to find value in some unders.

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Speaker 1: Find value in the unders. That's it. That's all they

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Speaker 1: got that in five bands.

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Speaker 5: I'm kind of annoyed that we're in California because now

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Speaker 5: we really can't game the system.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I guess what I was saying was like, oh,

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Speaker 3: when you said like the five thousand dollars and like

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Speaker 3: one the it's like going for it. But then he

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Speaker 3: was also like, you can't do that with Flip because

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Speaker 3: you only bet like two or two or fifty folks

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Speaker 3: at once.

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Speaker 5: And then if we win, we're like double is cool, right,

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Speaker 5: we can claim its skill as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and then we can start our own masterclass.

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Speaker 1: People will come to us a master class for teenage

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Speaker 1: sports gamblers. You don't have to have the talk. You

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Speaker 1: can just PLoP your kid down in front of a

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Speaker 1: master class. Now that's an idea. Your teenager might not

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Speaker 1: listen to you any more than mine listens to me.

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Speaker 1: But if they were to stumble online across a master

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Speaker 1: class or a podcast very like this one, who knows,

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Speaker 1: maybe they learned something maybe it would save them, But

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Speaker 1: what would you want your child to know.

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Speaker 12: I think a lot of people look at sports betting

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Speaker 12: as you're betting into a machine. You're betting into the computer.

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Speaker 12: The computers on the others. You know that that the software,

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Speaker 12: the sports beans software, is on the other side of

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Speaker 12: the bet, right, But the any any gambling, any bet

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Speaker 12: takes two sides, and somebody's on one side of the

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Speaker 12: bet and somebody else or some entities on the other

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Speaker 12: side of the bet.

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Speaker 1: In my own masterclass on teenage sports gambling, this guy

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Speaker 1: would be front and center. His name is Matt Davidoo.

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Speaker 1: He's a professional sports gambler who co wrote what amounts

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Speaker 1: to the industry's founding text, The Logic of Sports Betting.

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Speaker 1: Captain Jack actually recommended it to Walker and Tom, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think they read it. They were too busy

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Speaker 1: betting the unders.

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Speaker 12: The reality is that's somebody, whether it's a trader who's

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Speaker 12: ego or job or bonuses on the line, or an

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Speaker 12: actual person with their own money, is you know, like

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Speaker 12: that's who you're you're you're playing against them. You need

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Speaker 12: to be better than the other player. It's the same

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Speaker 12: as poker. It's the same as those the financial markets.

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Speaker 1: And these other players often know things that you don't.

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Speaker 12: Not correct.

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Speaker 1: That's d Miller, Matt's co author, who oddly went to

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Speaker 1: the same high school I went to in New Orleans.

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Speaker 10: Here are the two things I think ar true about

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Speaker 10: sports fanning.

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Speaker 1: One is that there are people who are trying to win,

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Speaker 1: and they have different.

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Speaker 12: Ways of winning.

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Speaker 10: They have something going on when they put a bet

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Speaker 10: down there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so there's a lot of information in the prices. Yes,

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Speaker 1: and the prices are dynamic.

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Speaker 3: Correct.

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Speaker 1: Here's the first masterclass tip, and it sounds deceptively simple.

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Speaker 1: Anytime anyone offers you a bet, or a trade, or

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Speaker 1: an item for sale, or even a night of passion,

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Speaker 1: they have some reason for offering it, and you may

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Speaker 1: be wholly unaware of whatever they know that you do not.

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Speaker 1: The fancy name for this is adverse selection. A market price,

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Speaker 1: like the odds on a football game, isn't some random thing.

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Speaker 1: It's the result of lots of people who know lots

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Speaker 1: of stuff you don't know, offering other people the chance

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Speaker 1: to make a bet. You might think you know more

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Speaker 1: than the market, but you better ask yourself what you

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Speaker 1: know that the market doesn't Because the market knows a

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Speaker 1: huge amount. But and there is another But the market

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Speaker 1: is not an omniscient god. It never knows everything.

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Speaker 12: Nobody could ever really figure out the true odds because

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Speaker 12: there's at the end of the day an all Blomde

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Speaker 12: ball bouncing around. There's many humans who are participating, both

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Speaker 12: physically and mentally. It's as opposed to say, chess or go.

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Speaker 1: Sports gambling is not like chess. The real world is

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Speaker 1: never that predictable. In sports gambling, just like in life,

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Speaker 1: you can never know the true odds. You're always just

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Speaker 1: making your best guess. The difference with sports gambling is

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Speaker 1: you have this thing called the house. The bookie who

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Speaker 1: sees the best price someone else will make him and

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Speaker 1: then makes you an even worse one. So by far

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Speaker 1: the most important skill, yeah, is meticulous price shoper.

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Speaker 12: Okay, that is the most important sports panting skillful.

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Speaker 1: Stop by price shopping, he means finding the sports bookie

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Speaker 1: who takes the smallest cut. You'll always start with the

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Speaker 1: odds stacked against you. But if the bookie is only

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Speaker 1: taking five percent, you'll go broke more slowly than if

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Speaker 1: the bookie is taking fifteen percent. As fan duel and

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Speaker 1: DraftKings do on their three legged parlays. Ed and Matt

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Speaker 1: offer up a bunch of practical tips for the young

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Speaker 1: sports gambler gamble on less popular sports, For instance, with

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Speaker 1: fewer fans following what's going on, it's easier to find

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Speaker 1: useful information than no one else knows. But before you

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Speaker 1: go off and investigate the Russian rugball championships, they offer

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Speaker 1: a warning, even the Russian Rugball Championships are going to

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Speaker 1: be very hard to beat. Whatever you think you know

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Speaker 1: about some sport is highly unlikely to give you enough

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Speaker 1: of an edge against the bookie. Yet people do not

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Speaker 1: get this. That's maybe what Ed and Matt find most

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Speaker 1: perplexing about this boom in online sports gambling.

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Speaker 12: My son, he's a my eight year old who can't

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Speaker 12: watch a sporting event without becoming convinced that everybody knows

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Speaker 12: who's gonna win, or everybody could beat sports betting him

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Speaker 12: just by picking keeps. I've been teaching him actual becambiing.

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Speaker 12: I've been teaching him sports gambling. He was starting to

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Speaker 12: think that he could pick the winner because look, everybody

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Speaker 12: else can, right.

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Speaker 1: The marketing of sports gambling is teaching bad mental habits

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Speaker 1: every time my own son turns on his TV or computer,

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Speaker 1: some celebrities spokesman is trying to make him even less

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Speaker 1: aware of his own limitations than he naturally is. He's

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Speaker 1: going to learn humility the hard way by losing. I

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Speaker 1: was counting on this.

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Speaker 5: So now we're up one thousand dollars or more like

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Speaker 5: nine hundred and seventy or something. But I think I

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Speaker 5: want to bet everything I own now.

441
00:23:09,196 --> 00:23:11,516
Speaker 1: Producers checked in on Tom and Walker a few days

442
00:23:11,516 --> 00:23:17,236
Speaker 1: into our experiment. I expected them to find chaos and contrition. Instead,

443
00:23:17,996 --> 00:23:20,116
Speaker 1: they found an even bigger pile of money.

444
00:23:21,116 --> 00:23:23,036
Speaker 5: How does it feel to kind of start off on

445
00:23:23,076 --> 00:23:26,716
Speaker 5: a wind streak and your situation now?

446
00:23:27,156 --> 00:23:27,956
Speaker 10: Like, what's going on?

447
00:23:28,836 --> 00:23:31,516
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, so every family dinner is it's the exact

448
00:23:31,556 --> 00:23:33,796
Speaker 5: same time that the US Olympics are going on. So

449
00:23:34,916 --> 00:23:38,796
Speaker 5: I'll be like betting at the dinner table, or I'll

450
00:23:38,836 --> 00:23:40,516
Speaker 5: put in a bet and then I'll be watching it

451
00:23:40,596 --> 00:23:44,516
Speaker 5: the entire time and refreshing my feed. I got like

452
00:23:44,836 --> 00:23:48,596
Speaker 5: gambling fever at the dinner table, and my sister is

453
00:23:48,716 --> 00:23:52,116
Speaker 5: visibly upset, and yeah, no one likes it, and I

454
00:23:52,116 --> 00:23:55,596
Speaker 5: think I think they're jealous. They're like, oh, oh, he's

455
00:23:55,756 --> 00:23:58,836
Speaker 5: up like one point five k. I can't do that,

456
00:23:59,396 --> 00:24:02,596
Speaker 5: you know. And my dad is like kind of uneasy

457
00:24:02,676 --> 00:24:05,436
Speaker 5: because he's like he's like, oh god, this is like

458
00:24:05,516 --> 00:24:09,396
Speaker 5: my fault. I've got him into this, And he's every

459
00:24:09,396 --> 00:24:11,076
Speaker 5: time I make a bet or every time I talk

460
00:24:11,116 --> 00:24:13,476
Speaker 5: about making a bet, he talks about how I probably

461
00:24:13,516 --> 00:24:16,116
Speaker 5: should have lost basically or not that. But he's like,

462
00:24:16,596 --> 00:24:19,276
Speaker 5: he's like he argues back at it. He's like, well,

463
00:24:20,236 --> 00:24:21,916
Speaker 5: this is blah blah blah blah. This is wrong because

464
00:24:21,956 --> 00:24:23,916
Speaker 5: blah blah blah blah blah. And I was like, dude,

465
00:24:24,676 --> 00:24:26,956
Speaker 5: the only time I've been wrong was today. I made

466
00:24:26,956 --> 00:24:29,356
Speaker 5: a dumb bet and I lost this one hundred dollars.

467
00:24:29,396 --> 00:24:30,916
Speaker 5: But it's okay.

468
00:24:31,316 --> 00:24:34,036
Speaker 3: The same dud's tapping at my house. I blisal mad

469
00:24:34,076 --> 00:24:36,436
Speaker 3: me and my girlfriend wasn't really mady because I've always

470
00:24:36,476 --> 00:24:40,756
Speaker 3: on my phone. She made me second phon. Then come

471
00:24:40,836 --> 00:24:41,916
Speaker 3: become the record.

472
00:24:42,716 --> 00:24:43,956
Speaker 5: You'll need these days.

473
00:24:45,036 --> 00:24:48,196
Speaker 3: Sorry, you stop feeling it for all the time.

474
00:24:50,356 --> 00:24:53,556
Speaker 1: In any masterclass, there should be this one breakout session

475
00:24:54,156 --> 00:24:56,516
Speaker 1: you discuss the effects of your sports gambling on your

476
00:24:56,516 --> 00:24:59,396
Speaker 1: friends and family. If you gamble on sports, you can't

477
00:24:59,436 --> 00:25:02,036
Speaker 1: do much about your odds against the bookies, but you

478
00:25:02,116 --> 00:25:06,236
Speaker 1: can torpedo your odds of ever having a girlfriend. Walker

479
00:25:06,316 --> 00:25:09,396
Speaker 1: and Tom already sort of know this. Every teenage boy

480
00:25:09,396 --> 00:25:12,676
Speaker 1: has spent lots of his childhood on screens while surrounded

481
00:25:12,716 --> 00:25:15,116
Speaker 1: by people shouting at him to get off his screens.

482
00:25:16,156 --> 00:25:18,756
Speaker 1: There as prepared as two young men ever were to

483
00:25:18,876 --> 00:25:23,596
Speaker 1: cope with the fallout from a life of sports gambling. Anyway,

484
00:25:23,676 --> 00:25:27,236
Speaker 1: they started out on this freakish winning streak. Our whole

485
00:25:27,316 --> 00:25:30,356
Speaker 1: family had gone to Paris for the Summer Olympics. Then

486
00:25:30,436 --> 00:25:32,476
Speaker 1: Walker and I took a bus for three hours to

487
00:25:32,596 --> 00:25:36,476
Speaker 1: lele to catch the USA basketball team playing Serbia. It

488
00:25:36,596 --> 00:25:39,276
Speaker 1: was the first Olympic basketball game I'd ever seen in person,

489
00:25:39,396 --> 00:25:42,676
Speaker 1: and it was fascinating. When you put a dozen superstars

490
00:25:42,716 --> 00:25:46,556
Speaker 1: on one team, weird things tend to happen. But Walker

491
00:25:46,596 --> 00:25:49,116
Speaker 1: barely noticed any of it because he was on his

492
00:25:49,276 --> 00:25:51,116
Speaker 1: phone gambling.

493
00:25:52,476 --> 00:25:55,676
Speaker 5: I I got the over in the under. If it's

494
00:25:55,756 --> 00:25:59,836
Speaker 5: under one eighty four, I make nine hof another three

495
00:26:00,676 --> 00:26:04,916
Speaker 5: Oh my god. If it's under one eighty four, I

496
00:26:04,996 --> 00:26:08,876
Speaker 5: make nine hundred and fifty thousand flip coins if it's

497
00:26:09,196 --> 00:26:13,396
Speaker 5: if it's if it's over, I lose eighty three thousand.

498
00:26:13,316 --> 00:26:15,076
Speaker 1: Come just said, I hope they stopped trying.

499
00:26:17,236 --> 00:26:21,596
Speaker 5: Well, there's three minutes left in USA is obviously one.

500
00:26:22,156 --> 00:26:25,316
Speaker 5: There's I think for the just to preserve the players health,

501
00:26:25,396 --> 00:26:27,196
Speaker 5: there's no need to continue trying.

502
00:26:27,956 --> 00:26:29,276
Speaker 1: How do you feel about your bests? I think there

503
00:26:29,316 --> 00:26:30,036
Speaker 1: were smart bets.

504
00:26:30,716 --> 00:26:33,556
Speaker 5: They were perfect bets. I'm not even worried.

505
00:26:34,116 --> 00:26:35,716
Speaker 1: The algorithm seems smarter than you.

506
00:26:35,996 --> 00:26:38,196
Speaker 5: No, that's not true. I knew what I was doing.

507
00:26:40,356 --> 00:26:40,916
Speaker 3: He could end up.

508
00:26:40,916 --> 00:26:42,996
Speaker 1: You could. You could actually lose both bets.

509
00:26:43,156 --> 00:26:44,996
Speaker 5: I could lose if I if it hits one eighty five,

510
00:26:45,036 --> 00:26:47,076
Speaker 5: I lose both. That's not gonna happen, though.

511
00:26:48,436 --> 00:26:52,556
Speaker 1: He's bet the over and the under. But as Captain

512
00:26:52,596 --> 00:26:55,516
Speaker 1: Jackett told him, no one really likes to root for

513
00:26:55,636 --> 00:26:59,596
Speaker 1: things not happening, and now Walker's stuck doing it.

514
00:27:01,716 --> 00:27:08,756
Speaker 5: Oh my god, Oh my god, I swear god, anybody

515
00:27:08,796 --> 00:27:13,396
Speaker 5: shoots the ball and at least my floather and oh

516
00:27:13,596 --> 00:27:15,836
Speaker 5: thank god Labrone.

517
00:27:17,036 --> 00:27:22,676
Speaker 1: Were it appears his bets didn't work out.

518
00:27:24,356 --> 00:27:25,716
Speaker 3: That's the sound of a sick man.

519
00:27:26,396 --> 00:27:30,076
Speaker 1: That's a sound made by a six sick man. I'd

520
00:27:30,076 --> 00:27:33,796
Speaker 1: already said too much. Anything more would only make it worse.

521
00:27:34,516 --> 00:27:36,956
Speaker 5: I'm the best, I'm the best. I'm the best fucking gamble.

522
00:27:36,996 --> 00:27:43,036
Speaker 1: Other is if what we're talking about is sports bets

523
00:27:43,116 --> 00:27:46,796
Speaker 1: made by my son. Okay, and he's made eight sports

524
00:27:46,876 --> 00:27:50,236
Speaker 1: bets and five of them have come out. He's come

525
00:27:50,276 --> 00:27:53,996
Speaker 1: out successful, he's won. How confident should he be that

526
00:27:54,076 --> 00:27:55,596
Speaker 1: he's a really good sports better?

527
00:27:56,116 --> 00:27:57,156
Speaker 7: He should not be confident.

528
00:27:58,156 --> 00:28:02,036
Speaker 1: Joe Harden, statistics professor at Pomona College, a member of

529
00:28:02,116 --> 00:28:04,916
Speaker 1: a growing movement in California to add stats to the

530
00:28:04,996 --> 00:28:09,116
Speaker 1: high school curriculum because without a basic grasp of the subject,

531
00:28:09,636 --> 00:28:13,276
Speaker 1: human beings are easy meat for many predators in modern life,

532
00:28:14,076 --> 00:28:15,796
Speaker 1: including sports gambling companies.

533
00:28:16,836 --> 00:28:19,996
Speaker 7: Five out of eight is your data value? Is your

534
00:28:20,036 --> 00:28:20,716
Speaker 7: sample value?

535
00:28:20,836 --> 00:28:20,956
Speaker 5: Right?

536
00:28:21,196 --> 00:28:22,996
Speaker 13: And we're trying to say, is five out of eight

537
00:28:24,556 --> 00:28:27,276
Speaker 13: you know a good measure of the value that's going

538
00:28:27,356 --> 00:28:29,996
Speaker 13: to be over your lifetime. So it doesn't really matter

539
00:28:30,076 --> 00:28:32,836
Speaker 13: how good he is internally, he's probably not going to

540
00:28:32,956 --> 00:28:33,956
Speaker 13: end up making much money.

541
00:28:34,676 --> 00:28:37,996
Speaker 1: So what it is in the young male mind and

542
00:28:38,116 --> 00:28:41,956
Speaker 1: it causes it to say, I'm three for three. Yeah,

543
00:28:42,036 --> 00:28:44,196
Speaker 1: this industry might be really hard for other people, but

544
00:28:44,356 --> 00:28:48,076
Speaker 1: I'm good at it. I'm not like other people. What's

545
00:28:48,116 --> 00:28:50,756
Speaker 1: going on there? I mean, we're all like that, right,

546
00:28:52,756 --> 00:28:56,636
Speaker 1: which is why statistics are so essential, both in gambling

547
00:28:56,916 --> 00:29:00,676
Speaker 1: and in life. Stats give you the tools to reason

548
00:29:00,756 --> 00:29:04,876
Speaker 1: from evidence instead of constantly spinning dubious stories to yourself,

549
00:29:05,876 --> 00:29:09,076
Speaker 1: and education and statistics makes you aware that the world

550
00:29:09,116 --> 00:29:13,956
Speaker 1: it's probabilistic, the total certainty is idiotic, that the most

551
00:29:14,116 --> 00:29:16,756
Speaker 1: any of us will ever be is less uncertain.

552
00:29:17,956 --> 00:29:18,796
Speaker 7: One of the other big.

553
00:29:18,756 --> 00:29:22,236
Speaker 13: Things that I think is really important is sometimes it's

554
00:29:22,236 --> 00:29:26,436
Speaker 13: called confusion of the inverse, and it's it's about conditional probability.

555
00:29:26,596 --> 00:29:29,716
Speaker 13: So if I ask you, what is the probability that,

556
00:29:31,596 --> 00:29:33,796
Speaker 13: given that you play in the NBA, what is the

557
00:29:33,836 --> 00:29:37,236
Speaker 13: probability that you're six feet tall? And I don't know

558
00:29:37,316 --> 00:29:39,876
Speaker 13: the actual it's like ninety five ninety six percent, right,

559
00:29:40,036 --> 00:29:41,996
Speaker 13: ninety five ninety six percent of the guys who play

560
00:29:41,996 --> 00:29:43,876
Speaker 13: in the NBA are at least six feet tall.

561
00:29:44,156 --> 00:29:44,356
Speaker 3: Yep.

562
00:29:44,796 --> 00:29:47,276
Speaker 13: But then I turn that question around and I say,

563
00:29:47,396 --> 00:29:50,316
Speaker 13: given that you are above six feet tall, what is

564
00:29:50,356 --> 00:29:51,676
Speaker 13: the probability.

565
00:29:51,116 --> 00:29:52,036
Speaker 7: That you play in the NBA.

566
00:29:52,476 --> 00:29:53,596
Speaker 1: Oh, that's interesting, and.

567
00:29:53,596 --> 00:29:54,516
Speaker 7: It's basically zero.

568
00:29:54,916 --> 00:29:58,796
Speaker 13: Right, So that confusion paradox, and we see in all

569
00:29:58,876 --> 00:30:00,876
Speaker 13: sorts of in all sorts of fields.

570
00:30:01,116 --> 00:30:02,436
Speaker 1: How do we apply this to sports?

571
00:30:02,436 --> 00:30:07,316
Speaker 13: Scambling maybe, like, given that you win, what's the probability

572
00:30:07,356 --> 00:30:08,116
Speaker 13: you know what you're doing?

573
00:30:08,836 --> 00:30:11,196
Speaker 7: And given that you know what you're doing, what's the

574
00:30:11,236 --> 00:30:12,236
Speaker 7: probability that you win?

575
00:30:12,676 --> 00:30:12,996
Speaker 1: That's it.

576
00:30:13,556 --> 00:30:15,436
Speaker 13: That's it, right, because given that you win, there's going

577
00:30:15,476 --> 00:30:16,516
Speaker 13: to be a lot of false positives.

578
00:30:16,516 --> 00:30:18,356
Speaker 7: There's gonna be a lot of people who just randomly win.

579
00:30:19,996 --> 00:30:22,316
Speaker 1: That was Walker and Tom. They're still up a bunch

580
00:30:22,356 --> 00:30:26,396
Speaker 1: of money riding high on false positives. I think they

581
00:30:26,556 --> 00:30:30,116
Speaker 1: sort of knew it, but sort of knowing it's very

582
00:30:30,156 --> 00:30:32,996
Speaker 1: different from feeling it. I wanted them to feel it,

583
00:30:33,916 --> 00:30:35,396
Speaker 1: and soon enough they did.

584
00:30:44,516 --> 00:30:47,396
Speaker 3: All right, So last night I made a two leg

585
00:30:47,516 --> 00:30:54,676
Speaker 3: parlay against Schalker's suggestions and against everything I've read online

586
00:30:55,236 --> 00:30:58,036
Speaker 3: saying the parlays are bad, but I felt like I

587
00:30:58,116 --> 00:30:59,836
Speaker 3: had to do it to make up for the lost money.

588
00:31:00,076 --> 00:31:01,196
Speaker 3: So we'll see if it pays out.

589
00:31:02,836 --> 00:31:06,316
Speaker 5: Hello, I'm a dinner again and I just placed the

590
00:31:06,396 --> 00:31:09,076
Speaker 5: dumbest bet of my life. I bet the over three

591
00:31:09,116 --> 00:31:13,316
Speaker 5: thirty or the USA wins by over thirty point spread,

592
00:31:15,556 --> 00:31:18,836
Speaker 5: or the minus thirty on the point spread for USA.

593
00:31:19,836 --> 00:31:22,836
Speaker 5: And I put one hundred dollars on it, the daily

594
00:31:22,916 --> 00:31:24,076
Speaker 5: limit on my debit card.

595
00:31:25,276 --> 00:31:28,996
Speaker 1: The losses follow the games. They surely as winner follows fall.

596
00:31:30,396 --> 00:31:33,436
Speaker 1: When they won, they thought they were sharp desk gamblers

597
00:31:33,476 --> 00:31:36,756
Speaker 1: in the world. When they lost, they didn't know what

598
00:31:36,916 --> 00:31:41,876
Speaker 1: to think, so instead they just felt and turned whatever

599
00:31:41,916 --> 00:31:44,596
Speaker 1: they were feeling about themselves onto others.

600
00:31:45,716 --> 00:31:46,236
Speaker 12: How do you pitch?

601
00:31:46,316 --> 00:31:47,996
Speaker 5: How do you strike out seven and then decide not

602
00:31:48,036 --> 00:31:53,676
Speaker 5: to strike out six? You're two? God, pull them honestly. Okay,

603
00:31:53,836 --> 00:31:56,116
Speaker 5: let's let's talk strategy for like the next bet, because

604
00:31:56,236 --> 00:31:57,676
Speaker 5: we need to make this back. We need to be

605
00:31:57,756 --> 00:31:58,476
Speaker 5: on the come up now.

606
00:31:59,476 --> 00:32:00,276
Speaker 12: Uh do you think it?

607
00:32:00,396 --> 00:32:02,276
Speaker 5: We could probably we could probably make six hundred dollars

608
00:32:02,276 --> 00:32:05,676
Speaker 5: in one bed. I bet you we could. We could

609
00:32:05,676 --> 00:32:08,156
Speaker 5: be slightly less. No, no, no, no, we can't. No no, no,

610
00:32:08,356 --> 00:32:10,316
Speaker 5: never mind. Let's not try to do it in one bet.

611
00:32:10,716 --> 00:32:13,996
Speaker 5: That's a dumb idea. This is how people start losing money.

612
00:32:18,196 --> 00:32:21,276
Speaker 1: Like most people, these two weren't constrained by some process,

613
00:32:22,316 --> 00:32:25,436
Speaker 1: because like most people, they didn't really have a process.

614
00:32:26,196 --> 00:32:28,876
Speaker 1: As LJ found during one of her regular check ins,

615
00:32:29,556 --> 00:32:30,276
Speaker 1: Oh my god.

616
00:32:30,436 --> 00:32:32,636
Speaker 5: They can only score ten points now in four minutes.

617
00:32:32,796 --> 00:32:34,396
Speaker 5: Yeah no, LJ, I'm actually lost.

618
00:32:34,996 --> 00:32:38,636
Speaker 6: They have to score ten points or they can only

619
00:32:38,676 --> 00:32:40,436
Speaker 6: score ten points. They're not gonna score ten points in

620
00:32:40,516 --> 00:32:41,436
Speaker 6: four minutes.

621
00:32:41,996 --> 00:32:44,876
Speaker 5: Yeah they will. Literally, how these guys are running up

622
00:32:44,916 --> 00:32:47,196
Speaker 5: and down the court on my own, I've scored ten

623
00:32:47,236 --> 00:32:51,516
Speaker 5: points in four minutes, Like it's not hard. Two teams

624
00:32:51,716 --> 00:32:54,356
Speaker 5: who are at a professional level, Swear to God, if

625
00:32:54,396 --> 00:32:56,276
Speaker 5: they don't play the best fucking defense of their life,

626
00:32:56,316 --> 00:33:00,276
Speaker 5: I'm gonna lose my shit, maybe like a one month later,

627
00:33:00,436 --> 00:33:02,556
Speaker 5: saying like, you know in movies where it's like where

628
00:33:02,556 --> 00:33:03,036
Speaker 5: are they now?

629
00:33:03,356 --> 00:33:03,516
Speaker 4: Yeah?

630
00:33:03,596 --> 00:33:06,356
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's like, yeah, Walker lost all his money and

631
00:33:06,556 --> 00:33:09,076
Speaker 5: just don't know where he is because he's like current

632
00:33:09,356 --> 00:33:12,476
Speaker 5: homeless somewhere in their SF area, Like I live in

633
00:33:12,516 --> 00:33:12,996
Speaker 5: those viewers.

634
00:33:13,076 --> 00:33:14,996
Speaker 6: Now, I think you might win this. I think you

635
00:33:15,036 --> 00:33:16,156
Speaker 6: could win this Walker.

636
00:33:16,396 --> 00:33:18,556
Speaker 5: Oh j I think you're really really wrong. I actually

637
00:33:18,796 --> 00:33:20,076
Speaker 5: have one hundred percent lost this.

638
00:33:21,036 --> 00:33:23,156
Speaker 6: It's interesting that you're just watching the score, like you're

639
00:33:23,196 --> 00:33:25,156
Speaker 6: not even watching the game, like you're so beyond that.

640
00:33:25,716 --> 00:33:28,316
Speaker 5: Oh god, damn it. How did I let that happen?

641
00:33:28,716 --> 00:33:29,516
Speaker 5: What is wrong with me?

642
00:33:30,356 --> 00:33:35,316
Speaker 6: Well, good luck, I'm gonna go have breakfast.

643
00:33:35,396 --> 00:33:37,396
Speaker 5: Free of shame and guilt. You didn't just lose one

644
00:33:37,396 --> 00:33:39,756
Speaker 5: thousand dollars, Yeah, that's true.

645
00:33:41,796 --> 00:33:45,876
Speaker 1: People pay way too much attention to winners. Winners get

646
00:33:45,876 --> 00:33:49,476
Speaker 1: books written about them, Winners are constantly being asked to

647
00:33:49,516 --> 00:33:53,636
Speaker 1: explain how they won. Winners get really good and making

648
00:33:53,676 --> 00:33:57,396
Speaker 1: other people feel they know something. But losers have more

649
00:33:57,476 --> 00:34:02,116
Speaker 1: to teach us. Losers have suffered only when you have lost.

650
00:34:02,196 --> 00:34:05,476
Speaker 1: Have you experienced the deep reality of sports gambling.

651
00:34:06,396 --> 00:34:07,636
Speaker 5: I can't believe that just happened.

652
00:34:07,836 --> 00:34:09,036
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I lost.

653
00:34:09,116 --> 00:34:11,236
Speaker 5: It's like one hundred dollars because I pressed the wrong button.

654
00:34:11,916 --> 00:34:14,116
Speaker 5: Or maybe I lost five hundred dollars like an idiot.

655
00:34:16,116 --> 00:34:17,156
Speaker 3: Oh that was sert.

656
00:34:19,996 --> 00:34:22,676
Speaker 1: That's the reality of this new industry. It's not good

657
00:34:22,756 --> 00:34:26,076
Speaker 1: for you. But it's easy to ignore that fact because

658
00:34:26,076 --> 00:34:29,556
Speaker 1: we've accepted a wider frame and gotten too used to

659
00:34:29,596 --> 00:34:32,076
Speaker 1: saying okay to industries that are a lot like it.

660
00:34:32,956 --> 00:34:36,356
Speaker 8: I was working in a pretty benign like ad tech job,

661
00:34:36,756 --> 00:34:40,756
Speaker 8: deciding which ads people saw on Expedia or what have you,

662
00:34:40,876 --> 00:34:42,396
Speaker 8: some kind of travel website.

663
00:34:42,556 --> 00:34:46,116
Speaker 1: That's Kathy O'Neil my son was chasing his losses. But

664
00:34:46,196 --> 00:34:48,916
Speaker 1: I was still hunting for the final piece of my masterclass.

665
00:34:49,516 --> 00:34:52,756
Speaker 8: But I realized quickly that the kinds of predictions I

666
00:34:52,876 --> 00:34:56,116
Speaker 8: was making, which were not that different from predicting markets

667
00:34:57,116 --> 00:35:01,676
Speaker 8: were really they were really profiling people by wealth, by gender,

668
00:35:01,796 --> 00:35:05,116
Speaker 8: and by race, and sort of making lucky people luckier

669
00:35:05,156 --> 00:35:06,596
Speaker 8: and unlucky people unluckier.

670
00:35:07,676 --> 00:35:10,436
Speaker 1: Back in two thousand and seven, Kathy had gone from

671
00:35:10,476 --> 00:35:13,596
Speaker 1: being a math professor Barnard to working on Wall Street,

672
00:35:14,596 --> 00:35:16,796
Speaker 1: where she saw the way math was used to hide

673
00:35:16,836 --> 00:35:20,276
Speaker 1: the risks that led to the financial crisis. The traders'

674
00:35:20,316 --> 00:35:23,356
Speaker 1: bonuses were based on the profit they made, divided by

675
00:35:23,396 --> 00:35:26,796
Speaker 1: the risk they were taking. By hiding the risk, they

676
00:35:26,916 --> 00:35:31,716
Speaker 1: raised their bonuses. They also orchestrated a disaster for ordinary people.

677
00:35:33,196 --> 00:35:37,476
Speaker 1: Kathy became disillusioned. She quit her job and went to

678
00:35:37,556 --> 00:35:40,316
Speaker 1: work at an online advertising firm.

679
00:35:41,556 --> 00:35:43,916
Speaker 5: And I was like, wait here I am again. What happens?

680
00:35:43,996 --> 00:35:45,996
Speaker 8: Like how did I get here? Like I'm yet again

681
00:35:46,196 --> 00:35:49,316
Speaker 8: like making the world worse. So this time I was like,

682
00:35:49,356 --> 00:35:52,196
Speaker 8: I'm not doing this again. I'm going to tell the public,

683
00:35:52,756 --> 00:35:53,476
Speaker 8: like what's happening.

684
00:35:54,276 --> 00:35:58,196
Speaker 1: She wrote a book called Weapons of Math Destruction about

685
00:35:58,196 --> 00:36:00,036
Speaker 1: the ways people who are good at math use it

686
00:36:00,116 --> 00:36:02,436
Speaker 1: to disguise the exploitation of people who aren't.

687
00:36:03,316 --> 00:36:06,076
Speaker 8: When I wrote it, the reception was mixed. You know,

688
00:36:07,076 --> 00:36:10,036
Speaker 8: some people were like holy crap, Like This really makes

689
00:36:10,076 --> 00:36:13,196
Speaker 8: me understand my work in insurance much more, and I'm

690
00:36:13,276 --> 00:36:13,676
Speaker 8: much more.

691
00:36:13,636 --> 00:36:14,236
Speaker 5: Worried about it.

692
00:36:14,396 --> 00:36:14,556
Speaker 3: You know.

693
00:36:14,836 --> 00:36:16,836
Speaker 8: So there are a lot of people who who were

694
00:36:16,996 --> 00:36:20,076
Speaker 8: I think rightly concerned, But there are a lot of

695
00:36:20,076 --> 00:36:25,516
Speaker 8: people are like, I can't believe you know, you've betrayed us.

696
00:36:25,876 --> 00:36:29,236
Speaker 8: You know, there's a kind of notion that we nerds

697
00:36:29,276 --> 00:36:32,116
Speaker 8: are supposed to sort of keep the secrets of other nerds.

698
00:36:33,596 --> 00:36:37,316
Speaker 1: Those secrets described in Kathy's book are hidden in code

699
00:36:37,396 --> 00:36:39,356
Speaker 1: that the companies on the other side of your business

700
00:36:39,596 --> 00:36:42,876
Speaker 1: don't want you to think too much about. It isn't

701
00:36:42,996 --> 00:36:46,076
Speaker 1: just how Google serves you ads. It's how your credit

702
00:36:46,116 --> 00:36:49,956
Speaker 1: is scored, your insurance is priced, and your job application

703
00:36:50,116 --> 00:36:53,916
Speaker 1: is handled. Now it's also how your new sports gambling

704
00:36:53,956 --> 00:36:57,396
Speaker 1: habit is managed. The ads lead you to the apps,

705
00:36:57,756 --> 00:37:00,116
Speaker 1: and the apps coax you to behave in certain ways

706
00:37:00,556 --> 00:37:04,516
Speaker 1: without making it clear what they're doing or why. How

707
00:37:04,556 --> 00:37:07,996
Speaker 1: would you think about the algorithms, about designing algorithms to

708
00:37:08,036 --> 00:37:11,356
Speaker 1: take advantage of these people? What kind of things would

709
00:37:11,356 --> 00:37:12,636
Speaker 1: you build into the algos?

710
00:37:13,796 --> 00:37:16,356
Speaker 8: Well, it depends on how you're trying to take advantage

711
00:37:16,396 --> 00:37:18,356
Speaker 8: of them. Right, If you're trying to take advantage of

712
00:37:18,476 --> 00:37:23,716
Speaker 8: people who are addicted to gambling. Then you get somehow

713
00:37:23,796 --> 00:37:26,436
Speaker 8: you get money back if you've lost, but it's not

714
00:37:26,556 --> 00:37:27,116
Speaker 8: really money.

715
00:37:27,236 --> 00:37:29,276
Speaker 5: It's just many more opportunities to bet.

716
00:37:30,076 --> 00:37:31,996
Speaker 8: And that's exactly the kind of thing you would do

717
00:37:32,316 --> 00:37:34,716
Speaker 8: if you just wanted to make sure you hook somebody,

718
00:37:35,556 --> 00:37:37,556
Speaker 8: and you might even lose a little bit of money

719
00:37:37,836 --> 00:37:41,756
Speaker 8: as a business. But if you hook a statistically large

720
00:37:41,796 --> 00:37:44,156
Speaker 8: proportion of people that way, then in the long term,

721
00:37:44,236 --> 00:37:47,156
Speaker 8: you're making a lot more money off of people's addictions.

722
00:37:48,156 --> 00:37:50,396
Speaker 1: And the beauty of it is how impersonal it is.

723
00:37:51,356 --> 00:37:55,436
Speaker 1: No individual ever needs to acknowledge what they're doing. The

724
00:37:55,516 --> 00:37:59,356
Speaker 1: sports gambling industrial complex is just another ab testing machine

725
00:37:59,796 --> 00:38:00,916
Speaker 1: with a mind of its own.

726
00:38:02,076 --> 00:38:03,836
Speaker 8: They try out a bunch of things and see what

727
00:38:04,116 --> 00:38:07,436
Speaker 8: works the best. Let's say, let's try to get people

728
00:38:07,556 --> 00:38:11,996
Speaker 8: to bet on the red sox with green letters, and

729
00:38:12,236 --> 00:38:15,636
Speaker 8: also let's try the same exact words, but let's try

730
00:38:15,636 --> 00:38:18,316
Speaker 8: it with red letters and see which ones they are more.

731
00:38:18,316 --> 00:38:18,916
Speaker 10: Likely to click on.

732
00:38:18,996 --> 00:38:21,236
Speaker 8: And the answer is going to be red letters. Now

733
00:38:21,276 --> 00:38:23,476
Speaker 8: we know what letters, what about the font, what about

734
00:38:23,516 --> 00:38:26,356
Speaker 8: the background, what about the pictures? What about exactly what

735
00:38:26,716 --> 00:38:31,356
Speaker 8: words we use? And you're just constantly you're pummeling the

736
00:38:31,636 --> 00:38:35,756
Speaker 8: audience with that, but moreover, you're pummeling different audiences with

737
00:38:35,876 --> 00:38:38,956
Speaker 8: different things because you've profiled different audiences to be vulnerable

738
00:38:38,996 --> 00:38:42,316
Speaker 8: to different messages, So not just the who's the home team,

739
00:38:42,956 --> 00:38:45,276
Speaker 8: but like how addicted are you and how much money

740
00:38:45,316 --> 00:38:47,836
Speaker 8: do you have? And what is your favorite type of betting?

741
00:38:48,396 --> 00:38:50,556
Speaker 8: So they'll keep track of all those things and they

742
00:38:50,596 --> 00:38:53,436
Speaker 8: will micro target your vulnerabilities.

743
00:38:54,516 --> 00:38:57,516
Speaker 1: So it's taking your past behavior and your response to

744
00:38:57,676 --> 00:39:00,036
Speaker 1: pass stimuli to try to manage.

745
00:39:00,516 --> 00:39:02,956
Speaker 8: Right, it doesn't have to be you, people like you,

746
00:39:04,076 --> 00:39:06,316
Speaker 8: So it's going to divide you into like a little

747
00:39:06,676 --> 00:39:10,396
Speaker 8: granular pot and then say, okay, everyone we've seen like

748
00:39:10,516 --> 00:39:13,956
Speaker 8: you responds to ads like this, and this is how

749
00:39:13,996 --> 00:39:15,436
Speaker 8: we make the most money from people like you.

750
00:39:16,036 --> 00:39:18,996
Speaker 1: And the case of sports betting is to manage my

751
00:39:19,116 --> 00:39:21,436
Speaker 1: behavior so that I maximize my losses.

752
00:39:22,116 --> 00:39:24,116
Speaker 8: And it's fair to say they're not just trying to

753
00:39:24,196 --> 00:39:28,316
Speaker 8: predict your future. They're trying to condition you into a future.

754
00:39:28,516 --> 00:39:28,636
Speaker 12: Right.

755
00:39:28,956 --> 00:39:30,756
Speaker 8: It's like you should think of yourself as a dog

756
00:39:30,836 --> 00:39:34,756
Speaker 8: that's being trained with treats, because that's how they think

757
00:39:34,756 --> 00:39:38,276
Speaker 8: about it. They will give you a little treat in

758
00:39:38,436 --> 00:39:42,316
Speaker 8: order to keep you interested. It's like, yeah, you're a

759
00:39:42,396 --> 00:39:45,316
Speaker 8: dog at a don park. Just to I've just thrown

760
00:39:45,356 --> 00:39:48,196
Speaker 8: that in to make it as humiliating as possible, because

761
00:39:48,236 --> 00:39:49,796
Speaker 8: it really is actually humiliating.

762
00:39:49,836 --> 00:39:50,956
Speaker 5: It's intentionally so.

763
00:39:51,556 --> 00:39:53,436
Speaker 1: Right, how do I train my son to be a

764
00:39:53,596 --> 00:39:54,196
Speaker 1: bad dog?

765
00:39:54,596 --> 00:39:54,716
Speaker 5: Right?

766
00:39:55,396 --> 00:39:57,956
Speaker 1: How do I train? Really? How do I train him

767
00:39:57,956 --> 00:39:58,996
Speaker 1: to be a bad dog?

768
00:39:59,676 --> 00:40:02,036
Speaker 8: The best way to avoid conditioning is to walk away

769
00:40:02,356 --> 00:40:05,076
Speaker 8: from like to say that treat doesn't work on me.

770
00:40:07,756 --> 00:40:10,956
Speaker 1: That's when it hit me. That's what I hope Walker

771
00:40:10,956 --> 00:40:15,836
Speaker 1: would learn to be untrainable to leap over the fence

772
00:40:16,276 --> 00:40:19,396
Speaker 1: and run away from the dog park. That would be

773
00:40:19,476 --> 00:40:23,396
Speaker 1: the big takeaway of my masterclass. Not something sharp about

774
00:40:23,396 --> 00:40:27,036
Speaker 1: sports betting, more of a feeling about how to live

775
00:40:27,116 --> 00:40:29,876
Speaker 1: your life so other people aren't leading you to live

776
00:40:29,916 --> 00:40:37,116
Speaker 1: it for them. My experiment, such as it was, blew

777
00:40:37,236 --> 00:40:40,676
Speaker 1: up just a couple of weeks after it started, not

778
00:40:40,836 --> 00:40:44,356
Speaker 1: in the way I'd expect it, though. I'd assume that

779
00:40:44,516 --> 00:40:47,036
Speaker 1: Walker and Tom would eventually just set fire to my

780
00:40:47,116 --> 00:40:50,276
Speaker 1: five thousand dollars, and then we'd all stand around and

781
00:40:50,356 --> 00:40:54,756
Speaker 1: stare at the flames and figure out how dumb that was. Instead,

782
00:40:54,836 --> 00:40:58,476
Speaker 1: they started out winning, right, off the bat. They then

783
00:40:58,556 --> 00:41:02,676
Speaker 1: hit a cold streak and panicked, and then Tom made

784
00:41:02,716 --> 00:41:07,436
Speaker 1: this crazy flurry of bets, winning bets in a flash

785
00:41:07,956 --> 00:41:11,556
Speaker 1: without anyone knowing why. They went from losing money to

786
00:41:11,676 --> 00:41:15,236
Speaker 1: winning three and a half thousand dollars, all in secret

787
00:41:16,476 --> 00:41:18,956
Speaker 1: until LJ got Tom to confess his source.

788
00:41:21,316 --> 00:41:23,796
Speaker 6: So, your brother found a guy on Discord who works

789
00:41:23,836 --> 00:41:26,556
Speaker 6: at Taco Bell who is giving you advice on bets

790
00:41:26,596 --> 00:41:29,116
Speaker 6: that you made. That you won all those bets that

791
00:41:29,156 --> 00:41:36,156
Speaker 6: you place. Yeah, yeah, and that's why you think you

792
00:41:36,236 --> 00:41:37,516
Speaker 6: were you were wdding.

793
00:41:38,236 --> 00:41:41,356
Speaker 3: I mean, that's why it doesn't make any sense to me.

794
00:41:41,476 --> 00:41:44,476
Speaker 3: I think that. I mean, there's a great amount of

795
00:41:44,636 --> 00:41:45,156
Speaker 3: luck in it.

796
00:41:46,716 --> 00:41:47,956
Speaker 6: So like, what do you think you learned?

797
00:41:49,276 --> 00:41:52,196
Speaker 3: I mean, I learned that it's possible to be in

798
00:41:52,276 --> 00:41:54,036
Speaker 3: the sword term, but I don't know how much of

799
00:41:54,076 --> 00:41:55,036
Speaker 3: its law for skill.

800
00:41:56,676 --> 00:41:59,756
Speaker 1: LJ put the same question to Walker, who knew that

801
00:41:59,876 --> 00:42:02,636
Speaker 1: they had broken Captain Jack's first rule of a sports

802
00:42:02,676 --> 00:42:06,156
Speaker 1: betting don't listen to some random dude who works at

803
00:42:06,196 --> 00:42:07,836
Speaker 1: Taco Bell on a Discord chat.

804
00:42:08,716 --> 00:42:09,876
Speaker 6: Why do you do you think you guys win?

805
00:42:13,276 --> 00:42:13,516
Speaker 9: Have you?

806
00:42:13,716 --> 00:42:17,836
Speaker 5: Has already said this the discord the guy to Taco Bell,

807
00:42:17,876 --> 00:42:21,796
Speaker 5: the guy. Yep, I didn't know if we were sharing

808
00:42:21,876 --> 00:42:24,956
Speaker 5: that or not. Yeah, so yeah, we just, I guess,

809
00:42:24,996 --> 00:42:26,236
Speaker 5: outsourced our problems.

810
00:42:28,556 --> 00:42:31,716
Speaker 1: Not a straight answer to Lj's question. But a few

811
00:42:31,796 --> 00:42:35,796
Speaker 1: days later, Walker and I were driving someplace. I asked

812
00:42:35,876 --> 00:42:39,556
Speaker 1: him all casual like, so, what's your next bet? And

813
00:42:39,676 --> 00:42:43,236
Speaker 1: he said, I am done with sports gambling. What do

814
00:42:43,316 --> 00:42:45,996
Speaker 1: you mean you're done with sports gambling? I asked, and

815
00:42:46,116 --> 00:42:48,716
Speaker 1: he said, I pulled all the money out of the account,

816
00:42:48,796 --> 00:42:51,996
Speaker 1: so Tom can't bet either. He'd split the winnings with

817
00:42:52,116 --> 00:42:56,516
Speaker 1: Tom and send me back my five grand. He'd jumped

818
00:42:56,556 --> 00:43:00,876
Speaker 1: the fence and left the dog park. I want to

819
00:43:00,956 --> 00:43:05,476
Speaker 1: know why you decided to stop betting at all.

820
00:43:06,356 --> 00:43:09,436
Speaker 5: I noticed that as much as I won, I also

821
00:43:09,556 --> 00:43:14,396
Speaker 5: managed to lose just as much, just slightly less, I guess.

822
00:43:15,476 --> 00:43:17,596
Speaker 5: But something I realized, if you'd like, in a really

823
00:43:17,676 --> 00:43:22,476
Speaker 5: short form way of saying this is everybody anybody can win,

824
00:43:22,636 --> 00:43:23,916
Speaker 5: but everybody's gonna lose.

825
00:43:26,836 --> 00:43:30,796
Speaker 1: Anybody can win, but everybody's gonna lose. That's about as

826
00:43:30,836 --> 00:43:33,356
Speaker 1: perfect a summary of our entire season as I can

827
00:43:33,436 --> 00:43:37,236
Speaker 1: think of. So why why do you think, I mean,

828
00:43:37,396 --> 00:43:39,756
Speaker 1: everybody should be able to see this like it's set

829
00:43:39,836 --> 00:43:43,116
Speaker 1: up to lose, but people do it anyway. Why do

830
00:43:43,116 --> 00:43:46,316
Speaker 1: you think people do get sucked in? And why you

831
00:43:46,356 --> 00:43:47,036
Speaker 1: think you didn't?

832
00:43:48,676 --> 00:43:49,276
Speaker 3: I think.

833
00:43:50,676 --> 00:43:52,916
Speaker 5: This is no hate to any gamblers out there, but

834
00:43:53,036 --> 00:43:58,036
Speaker 5: I don't think you have enough gratifying things going on

835
00:43:58,476 --> 00:44:04,156
Speaker 5: to sustain that sustain your attention like I have. I

836
00:44:04,236 --> 00:44:06,156
Speaker 5: have a few hobbies that I just like can't get

837
00:44:06,276 --> 00:44:09,876
Speaker 5: enough of when I make music, so when I'd finish

838
00:44:09,956 --> 00:44:13,156
Speaker 5: a song, that would that would remain in in my

839
00:44:13,316 --> 00:44:15,316
Speaker 5: like downloads folder that I could go and return to.

840
00:44:15,476 --> 00:44:17,676
Speaker 5: But like, all you're doing is losing.

841
00:44:17,756 --> 00:44:18,916
Speaker 1: What'd you do with the money you want?

842
00:44:19,676 --> 00:44:24,116
Speaker 5: I I bought a surfboard. I bought a wetsuit. Uh.

843
00:44:24,556 --> 00:44:24,956
Speaker 6: I got a.

844
00:44:26,436 --> 00:44:29,516
Speaker 5: Little bit ashamed, but I bought a gaming PC uh

845
00:44:30,196 --> 00:44:34,356
Speaker 5: And I bought what else did I buy? I bought

846
00:44:34,396 --> 00:44:36,796
Speaker 5: a bunch of plugins for music, which is just like

847
00:44:36,876 --> 00:44:38,036
Speaker 5: synthesizers online.

848
00:44:38,596 --> 00:44:40,476
Speaker 1: Did you think I was a bad dad for having

849
00:44:40,516 --> 00:44:40,836
Speaker 1: you do it?

850
00:44:42,556 --> 00:44:42,596
Speaker 3: No?

851
00:44:43,716 --> 00:44:46,396
Speaker 5: Mm, yeah, that was stupid. That was stupid of you

852
00:44:46,516 --> 00:44:48,876
Speaker 5: to do. But I'm glad you did it. It's not

853
00:44:49,116 --> 00:44:51,396
Speaker 5: good or good or evil. It's just like, wasn't a

854
00:44:51,436 --> 00:44:54,116
Speaker 5: good idea? It worked out? We got lucky.

855
00:44:57,156 --> 00:44:59,476
Speaker 1: Against the rules is written and hosted by me Michael

856
00:44:59,556 --> 00:45:03,636
Speaker 1: Lewis and produced by Lydia Genecott, Catherine Gerardeau and Ariella Markowitz.

857
00:45:04,156 --> 00:45:07,436
Speaker 1: Our editor is Julia Bartler. Our engineer is Jake Gorski.

858
00:45:07,916 --> 00:45:11,236
Speaker 1: Our music was composed but Matthias Bossi and John Evans

859
00:45:11,276 --> 00:45:15,356
Speaker 1: of stell Wagon Sinfinett. Our fact checker is Lauren ves pohert.

860
00:45:16,516 --> 00:45:20,236
Speaker 1: Against the Rules is a production of Pushkin Industries. Special

861
00:45:20,276 --> 00:45:22,156
Speaker 1: thanks to a few more folks who made this season

862
00:45:22,196 --> 00:45:26,836
Speaker 1: of Against the Rules possible Jacob Weisberg, Greta Cone, Sarah Nix,

863
00:45:27,276 --> 00:45:32,596
Speaker 1: Christina Sullivan, Kerry Brody, Eric Sandler, Kira Posey, Jordan McMillan,

864
00:45:32,996 --> 00:45:38,236
Speaker 1: Jake Flanagan, Owen Miller, Sarah Bruguerer, Jacob Goldstein and Sophie Krank.

865
00:45:39,556 --> 00:45:43,316
Speaker 1: To find more Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app,

866
00:45:43,756 --> 00:45:47,956
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts, And if

867
00:45:47,956 --> 00:45:50,356
Speaker 1: you'd like to listen to ad free and learn about

868
00:45:50,356 --> 00:45:53,556
Speaker 1: other exclusive offerings, don't forget to sign up for a

869
00:45:53,636 --> 00:45:58,596
Speaker 1: Pushkin Plus subscription at pushkin dot fm, slash plus or

870
00:45:58,676 --> 00:45:59,876
Speaker 1: on our Apple show page.

871
00:46:04,396 --> 00:46:07,236
Speaker 6: Did you learn anything about yourselves that surprised.

872
00:46:06,876 --> 00:46:09,636
Speaker 5: You well, in the back of my head, there's a

873
00:46:09,756 --> 00:46:12,956
Speaker 5: bit of a tug that I'm it's like being pulled

874
00:46:12,996 --> 00:46:18,916
Speaker 5: towards betting basically, And I now know that I can

875
00:46:18,996 --> 00:46:20,716
Speaker 5: like kind of control that, which is surprising.

876
00:46:21,796 --> 00:46:24,716
Speaker 6: You learned that you have like a self control that

877
00:46:24,796 --> 00:46:26,516
Speaker 6: you didn't know that you had, which is pretty cool.

878
00:46:26,876 --> 00:46:29,516
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's nice. I feel a little bit more like

879
00:46:29,676 --> 00:46:33,276
Speaker 5: confident in myself to make good decisions, which is nice.