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Speaker 1: Hello, then happy Wednesday. As I promised you three day

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Speaker 1: three straight days of episode drops, and yes, it means

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Speaker 1: that your queue is going to keep filling up. And

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Speaker 1: I know some of you play catch up in it.

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Speaker 1: We are all for that, but just a time stamp here,

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Speaker 1: you know, this is for September third, on Wednesday. And

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Speaker 1: where it is. As I sort of teased out in

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Speaker 1: my opening yesterday that while we were talking about sort

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Speaker 1: of where's the future of the Republican Party, is there

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Speaker 1: any any future for the non Trump Republicans that are

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Speaker 1: still left. If so, their opportunity to take a stand

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Speaker 1: is going to be thrust upon them, right, It's going

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Speaker 1: to be thrust upon them with tariffs, potentially with a

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Speaker 1: vote in order to become legally compliant. Assuming that all

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Speaker 1: these court losses happen, Are we going to see the

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Speaker 1: business wing of the Republican Party flex its muscle again,

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Speaker 1: the sort of the low touch, low less small government

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Speaker 1: wing of the party on this front again, Is that

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Speaker 1: going to happen? That's a moment to watch there. The

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Speaker 1: second is potentially all things having to do with the

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Speaker 1: war against the CDC that Robert F. Kennedy Junior has launched.

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Speaker 1: This is not the world that many of those Republican centaters.

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Speaker 1: So we're trying to figure out, right, if that wings,

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Speaker 1: if that wing is dormant, right, are they animated? Is

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Speaker 1: there any life left? And my contention is in the

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Speaker 1: next sixty days we're going to learn And I know

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Speaker 1: some of you have already said I'm being naive. They're

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Speaker 1: already dead, They're already compliant, And you know, we'll see, right,

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Speaker 1: I find something fascinating. There's going to be a lot

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Speaker 1: of a lot of retiring senators who are not going

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Speaker 1: to be seeking re election in twenty six who may

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Speaker 1: feel the freedom to say what they believe.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: We have a Tom Tillis has already decided he's going

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Speaker 1: to play that role. Jony Ernst may That'll be interesting

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Speaker 1: to see whether she's somebody that goes decides to take

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Speaker 1: a stand every now and then against Trump that maybe

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Speaker 1: she thinks is better for Iowa. And we've seen it

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Speaker 1: a little bit with Mitch McConnell, and of course we're

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Speaker 1: waiting to see what does Bill Cassidy do on that front.

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Speaker 1: But today, as I hinted at yesterday, I wanted to

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Speaker 1: focus on a dilemma the Democrats are going to have

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Speaker 1: to deal with over the next thirty days. And that

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Speaker 1: is and it may be this may be something that

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Speaker 1: happens in sixty days, It could be something that happens

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Speaker 1: in ninety days. But do the Democrats want to force

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Speaker 1: a shutdown showdown with Donald Trump and congressional Republicans? And

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Speaker 1: it's the subject of my substack. Some of you may

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Speaker 1: have already read my piece and already know the arguments,

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna you know, I sort of lay out

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Speaker 1: there this is a risk in either direction. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's largely why I have a feeling that the

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Speaker 1: Democrats are more likely to be comfortable being blamed for

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Speaker 1: a shutdown in a confrontation with Donald Trump this time,

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Speaker 1: and why it's different than the decision that was made

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Speaker 1: in March not to do this and March backing off

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Speaker 1: a shutdown threat. You know, Schumer sort of opened the

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Speaker 1: door to it and then quickly backed off. You know,

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Speaker 1: opening the door and backing off was a that looked weak, right,

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Speaker 1: So it was messaged terribly, but tactically it was it

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Speaker 1: was the right call at that moment. There wasn't There's

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Speaker 1: still a chunk of the country that this was still

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Speaker 1: a brand new presidency. Yes, it's the second term, but

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Speaker 1: it was still, as far as they were concerned, brand new.

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Speaker 1: Give him some running room, you know, give him a

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Speaker 1: chance to break things. Don't tell us he's going to

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Speaker 1: you know, the way we are as an electric we

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Speaker 1: have to. Once it happens, then we'll react. Well, here

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Speaker 1: we are nine months later, and things are broken. Right.

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Speaker 1: The CDC has been broken. It's exactly what many people

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Speaker 1: warned what happen. But it's been broken. Certainly, Foreign aid

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Speaker 1: has been broken, and that is another thing that was

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Speaker 1: of concern. And then there's all sorts of our energy

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Speaker 1: and dependence is being threatened with these sort of willy

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Speaker 1: nilly pullbacks on not wanting to diversify our energy. I

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Speaker 1: don't get it. Why don't we want in all of

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Speaker 1: the above energy policy win, solar, nuclear, fossil fuels, right,

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Speaker 1: I don't get it. So this idea of only doing

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Speaker 1: fossil fuels or fossil fuels a nuclear but not the

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Speaker 1: other stuff, it just doesn't It's just a bad business

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Speaker 1: decision right on that front. So the point is is

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Speaker 1: that there's a whole you know, it's been eight or

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Speaker 1: nine months and there's a lot of things broken. The

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Speaker 1: other thing is, can the Democrats trust the Republicans to

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Speaker 1: cut a spending deal and abide by it, or is

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump going to decide he is unilateral control over

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Speaker 1: how to spend money, regardless of how Congress appropriated it,

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Speaker 1: and he will just spend money the way he decides.

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Speaker 1: Or I'm going to pull funding for a program I

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Speaker 1: don't care if Congress pass and appropriation to fund Program X.

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Speaker 1: I'm pulling it because I want to. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: divert those resources over here, which I think deserves more

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Speaker 1: money despite Congress's decision not to fund Program X with

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Speaker 1: more money. This is this arguments called recisions, and different

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Speaker 1: versions of it are like that. So I certainly think

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump has created the conditions where there's no

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Speaker 1: incentive for Democrats to come to the table. And that's

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Speaker 1: sort of the situation we're in. Right. Republicans have enough

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Speaker 1: control of Congress that they're in charge, but they you know,

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Speaker 1: when it comes to opening or closing the government, they

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Speaker 1: need they still need some Democratic votes to avoid the filibuster.

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Speaker 1: So they're going to need some Democratic votes. And I

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Speaker 1: have a feeling John Fetterman's line hasn't changed. So this

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Speaker 1: isn't going to be politically easy. And if you do

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Speaker 1: engage in a shutdown, you got to know what you're doing,

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Speaker 1: and you've got to engage for a purpose, right, And

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Speaker 1: it doesn't always work, and you can lose the battle

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Speaker 1: and win the war. So let's look back at a

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Speaker 1: shutdown that took place at a similar time period. October

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Speaker 1: twenty thirteen. Ted Cruz and the Freedom Caucus essentially orchestrated

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Speaker 1: a shutdown against you know, over in theoryos over the

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Speaker 1: launch of Obamacare. Right, yeah, the ironically, you know, had

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Speaker 1: had Cruise kept his powder dry and they've not done it.

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Speaker 1: The focus of that October wouldn't have been the government shutdown,

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Speaker 1: but would have been the failure to launch of the

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Speaker 1: infamous Obamacare website that didn't work on day one. But

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Speaker 1: because of the shutdown, it sort of overshadowed things and politically,

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Speaker 1: Republicans paid a huge short term price. It cost them

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Speaker 1: the Virginia governor's race. It took place in October twenty thirteen.

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Speaker 1: You know, there's been this pattern that the party that

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Speaker 1: wins the White House loses that next Virginia governor's race.

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Speaker 1: It's almost like clockwork, and it's happened every single time,

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Speaker 1: I think, pretty much in my lifetime, with the exception

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Speaker 1: of twenty thirteen when Terry mccauliffe was able to win

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Speaker 1: very narrowly over Republican Ken Kuchinelli. And you know, he

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Speaker 1: won by three points, and I promise you it was

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Speaker 1: the government shutdown that did it. Without the government shutdown,

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Speaker 1: it becomes more about the national climate, and it becomes

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Speaker 1: less about and federal workers aren't as engaged back then.

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Speaker 1: And when federal workers were not engaged, who lived in

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Speaker 1: the state of Virginia that usually was more helpful to

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Speaker 1: the Republican side. The minute the shutdown happened, it engaged

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Speaker 1: voters even more so in northern Virginia. And the rest

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Speaker 1: is history. In fact, it's why so many of US

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Speaker 1: political analysts are very skeptical of wins. Earl Sars' chances

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Speaker 1: to win nothing she's done right. You know, we can

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Speaker 1: nitpick whether her candidacy could do the Doge cuts right.

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Speaker 1: The willy nilly way that the Trump administration has cut

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Speaker 1: the federal government has impacted actual human beings. Registered voters

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Speaker 1: in Arlington, Fairfax, Alexandria, Northern Virginia, and they're not going

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Speaker 1: to be voted. You know, they may like, they may

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Speaker 1: some of them may vote for Glenn Youngkin and liked him,

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Speaker 1: but right now they're pretty mad at the Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: So that's going to be a pretty tough obstacle. Once

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Speaker 1: when the federal government workers are engaged in off your

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Speaker 1: elections in Virginia, that's when Democrats do better than better

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Speaker 1: than the average. Twenty seventeen is another example of this

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Speaker 1: for them. Right the northern Virginia suburbs were on fire

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Speaker 1: over Trump and it led to one of the largest

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Speaker 1: victories in the modern era in Virginia for a general election,

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Speaker 1: at least on the Democratic side. It was one of

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Speaker 1: the Democrats' bigger victories. Republicans actually had a bigger victory

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Speaker 1: O nine. So it doesn't come without risk. And usually

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Speaker 1: the party that forces a shutdown does get the blame

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Speaker 1: in the polls. But while the nineties shutdowns probably re

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Speaker 1: elected Bill Clinton, it didn't cost Republicans Congress. It certainly

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Speaker 1: defined the Republican Party as obstructionists, and that was that

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Speaker 1: did feed into the larger message Bill Clinton was running on,

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Speaker 1: and it helped that the Congressional one of the leading

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Speaker 1: one of the congressional leaders Bob bole was on was

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Speaker 1: his political opponent. Right, it was easier to Washingtonize that campaign,

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Speaker 1: but it didn't cost him Congress. And I do think

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Speaker 1: that these things are short term bad for the party,

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Speaker 1: but their long term it depends on why did you

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Speaker 1: shut it down? Did you shut it down for an idea,

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Speaker 1: for a reason, so I asked you. I go back

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Speaker 1: to my Ted, the Ted Cruz example here. So it

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Speaker 1: was a political loser. In twenty thirteen, one hundred percent

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Speaker 1: cost them the Virginia governor's rates. Chris Christie still won

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Speaker 1: re election that year by a near landslide. Now Democrats

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Speaker 1: were barely engage in that race. There was almost a

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Speaker 1: detent right. Corey Booker was also running for a special

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Speaker 1: election for the Senate that year, and Republicans didn't really

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Speaker 1: recruit a serious candidate against him. It was almost as

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Speaker 1: if Christy and Booker had a wink at a nod

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Speaker 1: with each other, right they were they were the toughest

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Speaker 1: foes that either one of them could face, so they

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Speaker 1: weren't going to run against each other. But in twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 1: Republicans won the Senate. That's how politically damaging that shutdown

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Speaker 1: was for them, You see where I'm going, because they

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Speaker 1: they did believe they were shutting it down for a purpose, right,

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Speaker 1: and their base loved the fight. Now, eventually the base

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Speaker 1: got frustrated that congressional leaders wouldn't fight anymore, and they

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Speaker 1: ended up turning to any old grifter that would tell them, hey,

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Speaker 1: I'll fight, And it was Donald Trump. And that to

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Speaker 1: me is actually the risk of not fighting. Right. If

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Speaker 1: Chuck Schumer, King Jefferies choose not to have a confrontational

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Speaker 1: approach now with Donald Trump over the budget going into

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Speaker 1: next year, defending your priors, then why did you run

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Speaker 1: in the first place? Right? And you have a very

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Speaker 1: you know, look, as I've said, I think the most

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Speaker 1: difficult challenge here, for the biggest challenge in becoming president

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Speaker 1: is in order to win a primary, you've got to

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Speaker 1: prove to the base you'll be a fighter. And in

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Speaker 1: order to win a general election, you've got to prove

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Speaker 1: to the to the swing voter that you're going to

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Speaker 1: be a uniter, right, a patriot over that you will

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Speaker 1: you know, I say there's sort of three groups of

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Speaker 1: voters here. Your base wants you to be a fighter.

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Speaker 1: You have these sort of you do have true middle

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Speaker 1: of the voters who just want to be a uniter

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Speaker 1: and you want independence, and then you have independences who

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Speaker 1: are looking for somebody who's willing to buck their party

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Speaker 1: every once in a while. Right, So it's three distinct

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Speaker 1: sort of things you've got to be when it says,

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Speaker 1: as a politician, got to be all things to all

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Speaker 1: people in any given moment. Right, the successful, the people

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Speaker 1: that have won the presidency have convinced their base that

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Speaker 1: they'll fight for them on the stuff that matters to them.

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Speaker 1: Have convinced independence that when the chips are down, they

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Speaker 1: will put the country first. And they've convinced the middle

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Speaker 1: of the road voter that when they when they can,

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Speaker 1: they're going to be a united And that is the

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Speaker 1: successful recipe, right, Bill Clinton's recipe, it was George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush's recipe, it was Barack Obama's recipe. I could even

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Speaker 1: argue kind of sort of Trump tried tried, He didn't really,

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Speaker 1: he didn't really try to do that, right, He never

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Speaker 1: really had much of a message for the for that

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Speaker 1: true sort of centrist voter. Arguably, the independence bought the

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Speaker 1: idea that he was willing to disrupt things, right, and

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Speaker 1: being a disruptor sort of took took that took that

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Speaker 1: place there. And so if the Democrats sort of roll

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Speaker 1: over on this one and essentially enable a budget that

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Speaker 1: allows Trump to continue to attack their party's priorities, stuff

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Speaker 1: they've worked hard on, then don't be surprised if there

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Speaker 1: is an anti incumbent mood and a burn the establishment mentality,

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Speaker 1: because eventually that's what happened with Republicans. You know, there's

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Speaker 1: been a lot of conversations about the Freedom Caucus is

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Speaker 1: you know, hey, well the Freedom Caucus won, so there's

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Speaker 1: no need for one right now. The Freedom Caucus mindset

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Speaker 1: is in charge, right they were. The Freedom Caucus was

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Speaker 1: a group of people who were joined so they could

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Speaker 1: send them signal they were anti establishment. Well, the anti

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Speaker 1: establishment wing of the of the GOP is now the establishment. Right.

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Speaker 1: Bobby Kennedy Junior was anti establishment, He's now the establishment.

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Speaker 1: Pete Hegseth was anti establishment. He's now the establishment. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump was anti establishment, He's now the establishment. Mike Johnson

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Speaker 1: John Thune chose to move from one establishment to the other.

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Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham, right, he has shifted from one to the other.

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Speaker 1: And so it is it is you know they want,

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Speaker 1: which is also why they have all sorts of they

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Speaker 1: don't know what to do now because there's they're not

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Speaker 1: there to challenge the establishment. They are there to support

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Speaker 1: the establishment, which is why Trump's always able to shut

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Speaker 1: down any sort of fire that emanates from whatever is

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Speaker 1: left of this of this thing called the Freedom Caucus. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's what the You know right now, you have a

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Speaker 1: very rambunctious base of the Democratic Party. They're angry, they're

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Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons, and for obvious reasons, and

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Speaker 1: not fighting I think puts the leadership more at risk.

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Speaker 1: You put more incumbent Democrats at risk. Now, look, you

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Speaker 1: can't just shut down to the government because I don't

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Speaker 1: like Donald Trump. You got to have a reason, right,

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Speaker 1: Are you going to do it because they haven't had

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Speaker 1: a vote on tariff policy and that they need to

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Speaker 1: have a vote on tariff policy? Are you going to

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Speaker 1: do it and make one of your criteria for getting

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Speaker 1: to the negotiating table is putting Obamacare subsidies back on

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Speaker 1: the table before they expire at the end of this

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Speaker 1: calendar year. Are you going to do it to get

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Speaker 1: science back into the CDC and the HHS. So the

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Speaker 1: point is is that I do think if they do

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Speaker 1: engage in this, and I think the politics are lining

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Speaker 1: up where it's more likely than not. This is one

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Speaker 1: of those I used to use an expression called get

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Speaker 1: caught trying. You know, voters are aware of how hard

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Speaker 1: it is to make change a lot of times they'll

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Speaker 1: reward a politician for at least trying to make change.

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Speaker 1: So in this case, I call it get caught fighting right.

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Speaker 1: Why is Gavin Newsom suddenly getting a second look by

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Speaker 1: people who would normally not give him a second look

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Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party because he's gotten caught fighting right,

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Speaker 1: And it's like okay, and they're just looking for anybody

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Speaker 1: somebody to fight And to me watching the base rally

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Speaker 1: around and essentially throw away what I think is a

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Speaker 1: great principle to hill worth dying on, and they're not

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Speaker 1: doing it, and I fundamentally believe it's a long term mistake.

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Speaker 1: But I politically understand why. You know, because as a

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Speaker 1: friend of mine said, well, what's your alternative? And you know,

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Speaker 1: if you don't engage in the redistricting wars, what do

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Speaker 1: you do? And other than my answer being run a

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Speaker 1: freaking campaign in the state of Texas, in the state

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Speaker 1: of Florida, instead of disenfranchising voters in the states you

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Speaker 1: already run, which I think again it's a terrible principle. However,

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Speaker 1: Newsom's gotten caught fighting, which is something the base is

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Speaker 1: looking for. And I could make a very cynical argument

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Speaker 1: that the folks who won't like this and don't like

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Speaker 1: this type of politics aren't the ones paying attention at

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Speaker 1: the moment. In fact, they're the folks that are tuning out.

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Speaker 1: They will tune in closer to the election, and you

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Speaker 1: do need to have a message for them to reassure

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Speaker 1: them that you don't want to just light fires all

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Speaker 1: the time. All right, this is an exhausted middle I

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Speaker 1: count myself among them that you're just tired of everything

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Speaker 1: having to be a culture war, everything having to be

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Speaker 1: a fight. You know that we're going to have a

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Speaker 1: fight over a jenes at right, it is. It's not

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Speaker 1: that people don't make fair points about controversy, acts or

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Speaker 1: the cracker barrel bonkers ness or whatever it is. It's sad. Really,

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Speaker 1: do we have to insert politics into everything? Really? You know,

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Speaker 1: we can we do anything that is this sort of

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Speaker 1: sort of normal zeitgeisty without having without having a virtue

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Speaker 1: signal left or right. Not everything should be seen as

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Speaker 1: a virtue signal. Most people live their lives just to

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Speaker 1: just to get by, not to virtue signal to the

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Speaker 1: left and right. However, I think those folks have tuned

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Speaker 1: out in the moment. Right. It's it's it's essentially what

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Speaker 1: the right has done. Right. Donald Trump and the right

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Speaker 1: have written off the middle. They've decided that, you know,

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Speaker 1: catering to the middle didn't work. Catering to the middle

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Speaker 1: gave them Mitt Romney and John McCain, and they got rejected.

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Speaker 1: So they're not going to do that anymore, or at

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Speaker 1: least for a time being. And so far doing this

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Speaker 1: strong and wrong basically messaging thing has worked for them

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Speaker 1: as far as accumulating power. Now, I don't think the

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Speaker 1: country's better off. I think we're worse off. I think

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clearer. In so many ways we are, we

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Speaker 1: are headed, we are literally going backwards. But politically this

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Speaker 1: has been extraordinarily successful for the right. Arguably that this

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Speaker 1: far right, and this was a far right movement for

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Speaker 1: a long time, they've never had this much power. The

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Speaker 1: nationalist movement haven't had this much power in nearly one

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Speaker 1: hundred years, and this is globally right, we're seeing this.

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Speaker 1: So when you start to weigh the pros and cons,

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Speaker 1: do you confront So it is politically risky, and yet

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Speaker 1: it's also the start of the midterm campaign. And if

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Speaker 1: you can't figure out what your message is going to

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Speaker 1: be for the midterms to make the case for why

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Speaker 1: Democrats should have control of Congress, you should already be

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Speaker 1: able to make that argument in September and October of

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Speaker 1: this fall. And if you're not ready to engage in

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Speaker 1: that argument now, well you don't, then you're not prepared

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Speaker 1: for the midterms anyway. So in some ways, it's a

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Speaker 1: way to start. And look, is it possible we don't

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Speaker 1: reopen parts of the government for months because the tolerance

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Speaker 1: level the Republicans have for this is quite high, and

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Speaker 1: because we have insulated so many essential parts of the

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Speaker 1: government that they're immune from a shutdown, including social Security

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Speaker 1: pain things like that. So the actual risk to people

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Speaker 1: is minimal ish. It's you know, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a pain for some people that engage with government a lot.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a nuisance, and those things but

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Speaker 1: it's potentially an opportunity for Democrats to articulate why they

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Speaker 1: should have power again. And this is what I would

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Speaker 1: argue is the proper time to do it right March

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Speaker 1: for sixty days. That wasn't the right time. The country

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Speaker 1: wasn't ready for it. But we're pretty polarized anyway, and

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Speaker 1: I don't think if you told me a shutdown, I

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Speaker 1: think it's most likely to end in a political stalemate

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Speaker 1: right where everybody will be in their corners on this one.

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Speaker 1: The question is have you has it is the conversation

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Speaker 1: about process or is the conversation about specific issues, including

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Speaker 1: attacks on consumer goods aka the tariffs, access to life

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Speaker 1: saving medications aka HHS and CDC, and dealing with an

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Speaker 1: authoritarian tyrant in Putin. I'm not saying that's the reason

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Speaker 1: to shut down, but the other two. Because you're as

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Speaker 1: long as your motivation is about helping everyday Americans navigate

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Speaker 1: their life, make their life a little bit easier, whether

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Speaker 1: it's on the cost of things or on their health,

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Speaker 1: well the voter might reward you for that. If you're

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Speaker 1: doing a government shutdown because you don't like how the

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Speaker 1: appropriations process has been handled by the leadership of the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party. It's not a reason to shut down the government,

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Speaker 1: and good luck trying to explain that to the average vote.

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Speaker 1: So you got to know why you're doing it, and

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Speaker 1: the why better have direct impact on every days. But

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Speaker 1: I can tell you this, I think it's more likely

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Speaker 1: than not that we're going to have a shutdown, and

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Speaker 1: that it could be a long one if we do,

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Speaker 1: because I do think there are parts of the Republican

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Speaker 1: Party that don't care, but there will be some that do.

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Speaker 1: And if you get and by the way, it's a

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Speaker 1: pretty big win for a lot of Americans if you

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Speaker 1: get the Obamacare subsidies back. So it's arguably a hillworth

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Speaker 1: dying on, all right. So with that, let me by

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Speaker 1: the way, I'm not advocating a shutdown personally. I wish

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump wanted to govern across the board. I wish

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Speaker 1: he would. He hasn't brought in Schumer Jeffries to have

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Speaker 1: a negotiation. He doesn't. He's not interested in treating the

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Speaker 1: legislative branch is an equal branch. So in some ways

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Speaker 1: he's sort of forcing the only way you can get

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Speaker 1: his attention is to have this constitutional showdown. But Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump can end this tomorrow by actually inviting congressional leadership

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Speaker 1: over congressional Democratic leadership and having a conversation, talking to

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe doing a little give and take. It's

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Speaker 1: literally what every other American president has done except this one.

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Speaker 1: Let me do my top five because it's an excuse

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Speaker 1: to lean into some new cheeky music.

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Speaker 2: Est. Top five top top jest.

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Speaker 1: Stop all right, last week I gave you my top

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Speaker 1: five and the presidential sit Today, I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: two top five lists. It was so popular, Why do

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Speaker 1: one when I can do two? And because the theme

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Speaker 1: has been over the weekend, this is we're going to

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Speaker 1: start to see I think Senate races have have come

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Speaker 1: into focus. So I've got two top five lists. The

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Speaker 1: top five most like target list for the Democrats most

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Speaker 1: likely Republican held Senate seats that they can flip in

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Speaker 1: twenty six and then I'm going to give you the

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Speaker 1: five most likely Senate seats that Republicans could flip if

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Speaker 1: the environment shifts in their direction. But let's assume we

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Speaker 1: have this d leaning environment going into the mid terms,

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Speaker 1: meaning Democrats sort of party out of power, has sort

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Speaker 1: of a natural three to five point edge as far

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Speaker 1: as sort of you know, out there overperforming whatever the

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Speaker 1: median is at. The medium right now is sort of

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Speaker 1: a plus one plus two Republican environment, which is what

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four electorate was. Right, you're max electorate

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Speaker 1: this midterm elector, it's likely to be you know, if

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Speaker 1: you were Trump voters show up, they'll be it'll be

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Speaker 1: you know, a leaning Democrat. So my top five pick

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Speaker 1: up opportunities for them. Number one is North Carolina open seat.

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Speaker 1: Open seats always get always are a little bit higher

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Speaker 1: in my list than they would be if there were

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Speaker 1: an incumbent, no matter who the incumbent is, So North

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Speaker 1: Carolina easily their best pickup opportunity. They've got the former governor,

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Speaker 1: he's ideologically fits, the state has navigated all the social

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Speaker 1: culture wars in the past, has had some success. It's

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Speaker 1: one of those Democrats can't win this Senate seat under

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Speaker 1: these circumstances. Maybe there's a hard lid on the ability

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Speaker 1: to win Senate races in North Carolina. And I think

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Speaker 1: the Republicans, well, they're not going to have a nasty primary,

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Speaker 1: which is good news for them, and end up with

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Speaker 1: a really problematic candidate like that Mark Robinson that they

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Speaker 1: got in the last governor's race. I still think they're

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Speaker 1: probably going to be further being seen as further from

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Speaker 1: the center. North Carolina is a state that is just polarized.

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Speaker 1: It's a pretty evenly divided state, but there's not a

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Speaker 1: huge middle crown. So I do think Democrats have a

430
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 1: better shot at winning in a midterm than they do

431
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: in a presidential election year. Number two on the list,

432
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 1: so number one is North Carolina, Number two is Maine.

433
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: I think with you've got you're going to have multiple

434
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: good candidates. Whether it's I think the I am a

435
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: win in doubt. If you have two strong candidates, give

436
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: me the one who's more of an outsider than closer

437
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: to the establishment. And while I still think if Governor

438
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: Mills does jump into this race, it it certainly it

439
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 1: certainly puts in a very formidable political figure going up

440
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 1: against Susan Collins. But there's an argument to be made

441
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: by rallying around the Oyster farmer makes Susan Collins front

442
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 1: and center. When you have a governor of basically a

443
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: sitting governor against a sitting senator, you actually the governor

444
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: loses an opportunity to to sort of be anti establishment,

445
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 1: you know, be outsider. Yes, a governor's not serving in Washington,

446
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: but it is, it just lessens it it is. And

447
00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:00,160
Speaker 1: in fact, we've seen sitting governors don't always do well

448
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,719
Speaker 1: in these races. A sitting governor of North Carolina challenged

449
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: Jesse Helms and lost. A sitting governor of Maryland just

450
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,680
Speaker 1: lost a Senate race in twenty twenty four. A sitting

451
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: governor in Massachusetts lost to John Kerry back in nineteen

452
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,719
Speaker 1: ninety six. So I am not going to tell you

453
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: I'm I know for sure Mills is a stronger candidate

454
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: than our friend the oyster farmer. But either way, I

455
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 1: think Maine is going to be Maine is going to

456
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: be super close. And when you look at the list,

457
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 1: there's that. And this is where suddenly things get tricky.

458
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: After North Carolina and Maine, which I think i'd put

459
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 1: the odds on as both of them fifty to fifty,

460
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 1: with maybe you know, a pinky on the scale for

461
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: the Democrats in North Carolina and a pinky on the

462
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 1: scale because hey, until somebody beat Susan Collins, I'm not

463
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 1: going to be you know, you know, I'm going to

464
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 1: give her the benefit of the doubt. Number three on

465
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: the list is Ohio, and it's simply just sort of

466
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: by default. They have a good candidate and shared Brown

467
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: he's run before, they have a path to forty seven percent.

468
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 1: I'm skeptical you can get the fifty I am, and

469
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 1: I'm skeptical in the issue environment. I don't think he's

470
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: as anti tariff as what I think the politics of

471
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 1: anti tariffs is going to feel comes spring in summer

472
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: of twenty six and fall of twenty six. But look,

473
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,719
Speaker 1: he's he's he's the only Democrat that has figured out

474
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 1: how to win statewide and Ohio on the last decade.

475
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,639
Speaker 1: So you're you'd be a fool to think that he

476
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: can't win. But I think this is tougher. This is

477
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: I think that last three points is hard of a

478
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: three points for Democrats as there is anywhere in the

479
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 1: country on that front. And to go back to my

480
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: incumbent conversation, I think it's tougher for shared Around to

481
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: run against Washington when he just came from Washington and

482
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: he's trying to go back to Washington. So I just

483
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a tougher race. But if

484
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: not him who right, So as far as hey they've

485
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 1: put it in play, they're going to make them spend money,

486
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: and that might matter if they can expand the playing field.

487
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: So right now, number three is Ohio number four. I

488
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 1: don't know if I would have had it last week,

489
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: but I put it in this week. It's Iowa. It's

490
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: an open seat, and open seats are easier to win

491
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 1: than not. Rarely is it better for a party to

492
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: be defending an open seat rather than a sitting incumbent.

493
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,719
Speaker 1: Just trust me, no matter who it is. Sometimes if

494
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: the scandal is bad enough, you know, you'd rather get

495
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: rid of it. But anybody that's trying to tell you, oh,

496
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: oh you know, and no, no, no, they're better off

497
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: with Ashley Hintson than Joani ERNs gave me a break. Okay,

498
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: Ashley Hintson still has a lot to learn and a

499
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: lot of name idea building Western Iowa. I certainly think

500
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 1: she's a good political athlete and could do quite well,

501
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 1: and she's been winning in a swing district, so I

502
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 1: think she's going to be a strong candidate, but she's

503
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: not stronger than Joni Ernst. So this being an open

504
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: seat I do think opens that door and look Democrats have,

505
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 1: you know, I think this primary field's pretty interesting. They

506
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 1: clearly have a preference, but the d SEC they don't have.

507
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 1: Juck Schimer has a pretty bad track record in Iowa.

508
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: He backed a candidate that couldn't even win the primary

509
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: last cycle. The last time they'd opened, they had a

510
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 1: candidate that had a reasonable shot at beating Chuck Grassley

511
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: who got out of the primary. I mean Mike Frankin,

512
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: but he was the official party tried to get him

513
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 1: out and clear the field for I think it was

514
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: Abby thinking Hour and she couldn't win the primary. So

515
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: they're trying to get behind a state representative from western Iowa.

516
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 1: I think he's got a good story and a lot

517
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: of people in Iowa tell me he could be really strong.

518
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: But I don't know if the d CC's track record

519
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: is very shaky when it comes to some of these

520
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 1: states of late on that front. But the fact that

521
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: they have a robust primary I think tells you that

522
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: there's a strong gubernatorial candidate that Democrats will this is

523
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: their best shot at an Iowa Senate seat in a

524
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: couple of cycles. It's there. And then number five on

525
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: the list is Texas because of the crazy primary drink

526
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: Cornet and Paxton. We got to see what happens there

527
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: if Pacton's If Paxton's not the nominee, Texas will not

528
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 1: remain in my top five. But I'm assuming Paxon is

529
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 1: a nominee and Paxton is the most beatable Republican. The

530
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: question is what Democrat gets up there to tall Rico

531
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: is being floated, calling all Red's out there, who knows better?

532
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 1: Or roar somebody ought to run for governor. Just a suggestion,

533
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: But it does seem as if, because Paxton looks like

534
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 1: such an easy target, that there are a lot of

535
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: ambitious Democrats looking more there than anywhere else. So if

536
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: Paxxton wins the primary, you keep them in the top

537
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: five list. But I'll be honest, this isn't you know. Yes,

538
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: technically they only need four seats, but I don't see

539
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 1: four easy wins here. I see two on a good

540
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: night in this top five, and they need to get

541
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: which means they need to get more seats in play.

542
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: Nebraska could be in play. We'll see, We'll see how

543
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,080
Speaker 1: Dan Osborne's campaign does the second time. Mississippi could be

544
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: if they can find somebody Florida. Could you just heard

545
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: Jared Moskowitz could get redistricted out of his seat, and

546
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: then he might run statewide. He's ideologically as good of

547
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: a fit as Democrats can find down there. For what

548
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: it's worth, Kansas is always possible because I think the

549
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: tariffs are going to be super unpopular. It's interesting that

550
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:33,479
Speaker 1: there's not a soul arguing that Democrats ought to try

551
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: to compete in Kentucky even though it's an open seat.

552
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: Shows you how far we've gone. There was a time

553
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: when an open seat in Kentucky would have garnered serious

554
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 1: interest from the out party on that front. So there

555
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: you go. My dem top five pickup opportunities in the

556
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: Senate right now, North Carolina one, Main two, Ohio three,

557
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: Iowa four, Texas five. Let me give you the Republicans.

558
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 1: Let's be honest, there's really four, and there's really they

559
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: have four opportunities for pickups that are legitimate. The question

560
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: is there a fifth? And I'll get to that in

561
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 1: a moment. Right their opportunities, three of the four opportunities

562
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: are open seats. You have the open seats in Michigan,

563
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:16,600
Speaker 1: New Hampshire, and Minnesota. Those three retirements in Democratic like Minnesota, Michigan,

564
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: and New Hampshire have had have all sort of been

565
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: consistently leaned down in center races, right if that's possible

566
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: to be consistently lean and they have been. I think

567
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: the question is going to be whether Republicans can nominate

568
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: candidates that can win statewide. Look, Mike Rodgers lost a

569
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: very close race two years ago. He's the likely Republican nominee.

570
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: It's why I have Michigan in the number one slot.

571
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 1: It's their number one pick up opportunity. John Thune is

572
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 1: the best example of somebody who loses narrowly in two

573
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: thousand and two to Tim Johnson, runs two years later

574
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: against Tom Dashell, a seat that was thought would be

575
00:33:52,560 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 1: harder to win, and he narrowly wins that, and he's

576
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: been there since. There's quite a few senators who are

577
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: in there who lost two years prior in a pre

578
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 1: Senate seat who run again and win. Scott Brown is

579
00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: somebody who's run a close race against Geen Shaheen. I

580
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: moderated a debate between the two of them. He was

581
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: at the time. I think he had just sort of

582
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 1: carpet bagged his way into New Hampshire, and I think

583
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: it'd been a true longtime New Hampshire right at that point,

584
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 1: I think he'd had a real shot at knocking her off.

585
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: Now he's been there a decade. Now, he's you know,

586
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: been there as long as most Massachusetts transplants are in

587
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: New Hampshire. So I don't think the carpet bagging thing

588
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 1: is going to be as effective as it was. I

589
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 1: think when when Sheheen ran against him, and so we'll

590
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: see right and is in well, the Chris Pappas will

591
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: will and end up being you know, New Hampshire Democrats

592
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,280
Speaker 1: have done well in the center races in New Hampshire

593
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 1: by being running close to the center. She you know,

594
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 1: they they've had governors who then have made it into

595
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 1: Senate races. So I think, look, I put New Hampshire

596
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: in the number two slot because it's open. So Michigan

597
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,479
Speaker 1: won New Hampshire two, then a number three. I'm actually

598
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 1: gonna put a race with incumbent over the third open seat,

599
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 1: which is Minnesota. And there's a fourth open seat. I'm

600
00:35:12,400 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 1: gonna get to it in a minute, So I have

601
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: Michigan one second time candidate. You're gonna hear, you know,

602
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,479
Speaker 1: we're going to have in the next week, you're gonna

603
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 1: hear from one of the Democratic candidates running in that

604
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: Senate seat. I'll do Elsi ed who's got Bernie Sanders endorsement,

605
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: definitely is the progressive in that primary. He's got a

606
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 1: lot of traction. It's going to be quite the bright

607
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: contrast if he's the nominee and Mike Rodgers's the nominee,

608
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: and there's going to be a huge and you might

609
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: have huge Israel implications in a campaign like that, But anyway,

610
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:47,879
Speaker 1: Michigan is one, New Hampshire is two. Third is Georgia. Right,

611
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 1: John Ossoff is having to run this time without the

612
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: help of a presidential turnout and without the help of

613
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 1: Rafael Warnock sharing the ballot. Both of those things were

614
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 1: huge assets to John osoft in twenty twenty. He won't

615
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: have either one of those assets in twenty twenty six.

616
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,439
Speaker 1: And I'm bullish on Derek Dooley. If he's the former

617
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: football coach, if he the son of a legendary Georgia

618
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: football coach, if he's the nominee, I think he can

619
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 1: run outsider lane better than some of these members of

620
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: Congress who are in this primary. You know, if I'm

621
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 1: also off, I want to run against anybody whose first

622
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: name is congressman. I don't want to run against somebody

623
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 1: whose first name is coach. So the primary is going

624
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 1: to determine whether or not Georgia moves even higher on

625
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: this list or not. So Michigan won New Hampshire to

626
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,839
Speaker 1: Georgia three and in the fourth spot by default. Really's Minnesota. Now,

627
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: we haven't seen Republicans have any They don't have the

628
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 1: Scott Brown recruit yet, right, which is you know he

629
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 1: was They couldn't get Christan Nunu, so he was probably

630
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: the next best best pick somebody that makes it competitive.

631
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 1: You'll have to fund it. You got to take him seriously.

632
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: He's been in the Senate, right, all of those things.

633
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: They don't have that candidate yet. Minnesota, though, is a

634
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 1: very is it is a you know, this is like

635
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: a fifty three to forty seven Democratic state. It's not

636
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: the sixty forty democratic state that many people think it is.

637
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: And it's not the sixty forty state that am Klobishar

638
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 1: is able to succeed it. She's got a unique hole

639
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 1: in that electorate. She overperforms Democrats and I think people

640
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 1: forget this. I think if Tim Wallas is running for

641
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 1: a third term either way, I think the governor's race

642
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: is going to be the more competitive race, but it

643
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 1: will dictate the mood of the electorate and all of that.

644
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: So I would I am, I am. You know, if

645
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 1: the political environment shifts against the Democrats in the next

646
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:33,800
Speaker 1: six months, I'm skeptical that it will. But if it does,

647
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 1: Minnesota may attract a better quality of candidate, and then

648
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: suddenly you may get there, which of course means, what

649
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,920
Speaker 1: do you put in the fifth slot? By default due

650
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 1: to my open seat rule. I guess you put Illinois there.

651
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: And certainly, boy did Democrats really underperform. Back in twenty

652
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 1: twenty four, the presidential vote between Harrison Trump was as

653
00:37:57,600 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 1: close as it's been in Illinois since nineteen ninety two.

654
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 1: So and yet, I just it's hard to believe that

655
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 1: you'll you'll see anybody, you know, I think I think

656
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: the winning Senate candidate in an Illinois in a bad

657
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 1: day gets fifty five or fifty six. There's gonna be

658
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: a pretty competitive primary. It's going to be very you know,

659
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 1: likely a Chicago area candidate that ends up there. Christian

660
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 1: Morphy seems to be that both the financial juggernaut has

661
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 1: the early early head start there, but you know, and

662
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,879
Speaker 1: it's an early primary. They're a March primary, filing deadlines soon.

663
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 1: I'll put Illinois in the five slot, but it's you know,

664
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 1: if you told me Virginia got competitive because Mark Warner's

665
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: been caught before napping, If you told me New Jersey

666
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: if they elect a Republican governor this cycle, does it

667
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 1: motivate them to find somebody to run in that Senate

668
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 1: race against Booker? Or does Booker just decide to start

669
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 1: focusing on running for president. And then there's always New Mexico,

670
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: maybe just because it's a state that, like Minnesota, at

671
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 1: some point Republicans might be able to make a competitive again.

672
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 1: But so for the default fifth, I'll put Illinois because

673
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 1: it's an open seat. But that is it may be

674
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: that our list on the Republican side in six months

675
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 1: is actually only four, that there is no fifth slot,

676
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: that we're just not going to rank a fifth pickup opportunity.

677
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 1: So there you go. The Republicans top five most likely

678
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: I'm putting is Michigan, New Hampshire, Georgia, Minnesota, and then

679
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:29,240
Speaker 1: for now Illinois. It's like, it's like putting Two Lane

680
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: or Boise State as the group of five representative in

681
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 1: the college football playoff. Somebody's going to be the representative

682
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: some in the group of five. Maybe it's two Lane,

683
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: maybe it's South Florida, maybe it's Boise. None of them

684
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 1: are going to make it past a second round. So

685
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't really matter that much. And it may

686
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 1: be that fifth slot won't matter that much there all right,

687
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 1: Coming up, I got Dexter Filkins on the future of

688
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 1: war and the most frustrating part of this conversation. It's

689
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 1: an amazing conversation. I think Dexter Filcins is sort of

690
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 1: this generations sort of north star when it comes to

691
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,399
Speaker 1: being a war correspondent. He has been to more hotspots

692
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: than he can remember. But he wrote a terrific piece

693
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: about is America ready for the next war? And the

694
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 1: answer is no. So when you think about and listening

695
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 1: to this interview, you can think about all the fricking

696
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 1: money we spent at the Pentagon and we're not ready

697
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 1: for the next war. And the fact that you know

698
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 1: the what we've learned from Ukraine and the use of

699
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:27,919
Speaker 1: drones and the successful use of drones and the fact

700
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:29,879
Speaker 1: that five hundred dollars can get rid of a five

701
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: billion dollar weapon that should is scaring the Bejesus out

702
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 1: of military planners at the Pentagon. You're going to enjoy

703
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:50,840
Speaker 1: this conversation even if it makes Shane so joining me

704
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 1: now is somebody have I always make a priority to

705
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 1: read when he has one of his big deep dives

706
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 1: in whatever news periodical he's working for at the time. Currently,

707
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 1: Dexter Filkins is with The New Yorker these days and

708
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: has been there for a while. He's probably our country's

709
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 1: best sort of war correspondent in the written word these days. Yeah,

710
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:21,840
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, I don't think Dexter

711
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: is going to stop me there, and he You know,

712
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 1: you do it in such a way where it is

713
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: both enlightening illuminating, but at the same time it lacks

714
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: an agenda. And I mean that in a positive way.

715
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 1: In our era of journalism where everybody's assuming there's an

716
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 1: agenda behind every story, that is not how you work.

717
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 1: You work more like an anthropologist, I think, in trying

718
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: to put the puzzle together, unpack it, and things like that.

719
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 1: And it's your most recent piece is what sort of

720
00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 1: drove me to get you on the pod? Here is

721
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: America ready for the next war? Which was really powered.

722
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 1: It seems like by lessons that military planners are learning

723
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 1: from Israel and Ukraine at the moment.

724
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 2: But Dexter welcome, Thank you so much, and thanks for

725
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 2: the nice intro.

726
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: No please, it's it's well deserved. And I learned a

727
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 1: little something extra that you're you got you cut your

728
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,919
Speaker 1: teeth down in Miami back in the day.

729
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 2: I miss Miami, you know.

730
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 1: I I what I say about Miami and I I

731
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 1: love visiting and my daughter's a resident now. It's a

732
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 1: great place to be from It's a it's a weird

733
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:39,520
Speaker 1: place to live. It's a tough place to live sometimes,

734
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,879
Speaker 1: but it's a Yes, they keep adding people and they

735
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 1: you know, you can't widen us one the ocean gets

736
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: in the way, you know, or yeah, yeah, they haven't

737
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: figured that out, but let's start is you know, it

738
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,759
Speaker 1: was a pretty provocative headline, is US Is the US

739
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 1: ready for the next war? It feels like this is

740
00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: one of those where we're a big military superpower that

741
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: suddenly is vulnerable to uh, small tech innovation. Is that

742
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: the is that the good subhead.

743
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think it's changed. Everything's changing really fast,

744
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 2: and I think it's been changing kind of under the

745
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,399
Speaker 2: radar for some time. But what's happened in the last

746
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 2: couple of years is is Ukraine. And that's just that's

747
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 2: like a real time laboratory for for for for war,

748
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 2: you know, uh, for war as it happens. And so

749
00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 2: everybody's been studying that war. The Pentagon has been studying

750
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 2: that war. It's kind of unfolded in ways that are

751
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 2: very very different. And then you have and then you

752
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 2: have Israel, which is I think somewhat also under the radar,

753
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 2: but they've made extensive use of artificial intelligence in targeting

754
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 2: Hamas and Hesboala and Iran uh and just the most

755
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 2: interesting ways. And and you know, we can discuss that

756
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,720
Speaker 2: there's sort of pros and cons and ups and downs,

757
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:05,880
Speaker 2: but those two things, I think kind of drones and

758
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 2: unmanned systems, say in Ukraine and artificial intelligence in Israel

759
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 2: is kind of changing everything really fast.

760
00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: How where are we on drone warfare? And on one hand,

761
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 1: it was I remember when Barack Obama was accused of

762
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 1: over using drones and over relying on drones and it

763
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 1: looked like we were ahead of the game. Are we

764
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 1: no longer ahead of the game.

765
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,760
Speaker 2: I think we do okay with with you know, we're

766
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 2: I should say we're catching up in kind of drones themselves.

767
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 2: But I think I think the really big issue that

768
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 2: the Pentagon is grappling with, and I think, you know,

769
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: the smart people are kind of panicking, and that is

770
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:51,760
Speaker 2: that the US military has built. What the US military

771
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 2: that they've built, it essentially relies on really really expensive

772
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 2: weapons that they don't build very many of. So like

773
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,280
Speaker 2: we have, you know, we have something like eleven aircraft carriers.

774
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 2: They cost you know, fifteen billion dollars each and they

775
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 2: take they take a decade to make. We have F

776
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 2: thirty five that cost the fighter jets that cost one

777
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 2: hundred million dollars each. And you know, just the other

778
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:18,280
Speaker 2: day in the in the Arabian Sea, two F thirty

779
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 2: five slid off an aircraft carrier and fell into the water,

780
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 2: you know, and they and they sank to the bottom

781
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 2: and there, you know, there's two hundred million dollars just

782
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 2: down the drain. And and so what's happened? That's us

783
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,080
Speaker 2: And then what you what you see in Ukraine is

784
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 2: and where like I visited this factory in Ukraine which

785
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:41,400
Speaker 2: I write about. They can make really really accurate, super

786
00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 2: lethal drones for five hundred bucks apiece, and they can

787
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 2: crank them out and crank them out and crank them out.

788
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 2: And so if you're suddenly, if you're an aircraft carrier

789
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 2: that cost ten billion dollars, and what do you do

790
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,920
Speaker 2: if there's a thousand of those coming your way? And

791
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 2: I think that's kind of that's what it has got

792
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:01,560
Speaker 2: and everybody's attention.

793
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:07,480
Speaker 1: So what's the you know, the infamous military industrial complex, right,

794
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 1: which which essentially where defense contractors have successfully convinced members

795
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: of Congress of how many jobs are created with all

796
00:46:18,239 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: of these things, and it becomes all untouchable. But you

797
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 1: it also strikes me is that this is why legacy

798
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: weapons systems stay and never get replaced and so gets layered. Right,

799
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,879
Speaker 1: It's it's a total, it's a layering. I assume that's

800
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:36,280
Speaker 1: where we are at the moment, right.

801
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, So depending on itself is like an aircraft carrier,

802
00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:44,200
Speaker 2: and so it's you know, sailing steadily in one direction

803
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 2: and it's not easy to turn and it's certainly not

804
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 2: easy to turn around, which is what they need to do.

805
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 2: And and that, I mean, you hit the nail on

806
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:56,879
Speaker 2: the head. You can't suddenly wake up one morning and say,

807
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 2: you know what, we're not going to build aircraft carriers anymore.

808
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:03,560
Speaker 2: That's thousands and thousands of jobs spread, you know, very

809
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 2: precisely to factories all around the country, and so all

810
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 2: the all the members of Congress wake up and say no, no,

811
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 2: hang on, hang on, hang.

812
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 3: On, we got to have that and so and so

813
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 3: that's kind of that that's a big part of the problem,

814
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 3: which is you've got the you've got some very smart

815
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 3: people in the Pentagon, and they're saying, look, we need

816
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:24,760
Speaker 3: to change, we need to change really fast.

817
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:26,640
Speaker 1: Or do we still have smart people at the Pentagon?

818
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 1: Dexter like there is that there's a creature.

819
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 2: So there are creatures. Many of them are creatures of

820
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 2: kind of group think, but but there's a lot there's

821
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 2: a lot of bright people who realize what's going on,

822
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 2: but they can't be heard and that and that's the

823
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 2: problem because it gets drowned out by what we're talking about,

824
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 2: which is, let's carry on with the status quo. Because

825
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 2: the status quo, you know, employees five thousand people in

826
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 2: my district, and so that's hard to change. And it's

827
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 2: and and that's kind of like that's exactly what the

828
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 2: Pentagon is kind of grappling with in Congress.

829
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,439
Speaker 1: I feel like you wrote a similar story fifteen years

830
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 1: ago about the transition from conventional military to counter terrorism

831
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: and in some ways that and that we were in

832
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 1: a similar place then this belief that hey, we're not

833
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 1: we don't have the military. We don't have the military

834
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 1: that we need to deal with the threats of today,

835
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,879
Speaker 1: and it is this has this not been a sort

836
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 1: of a twenty five year problem.

837
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point. I think we did. We

838
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: woke up, you know, we woke up on September eleventh

839
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:35,919
Speaker 2: and said, oh my god, what do we do? Yeah,

840
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 2: the military doesn't turn on a dime, it just doesn't.

841
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 2: And so and so so we spend you know, the

842
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:43,839
Speaker 2: country spends nearly a trillion dollars a year. I mean,

843
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,440
Speaker 2: it's like whatever, eight hundred and fifty billion dollars, which

844
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 2: is unbelievable amount of money. Well, there's a.

845
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: Reason why this zip code that I live in, Okay,

846
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 1: in Arlington County. Yeah, Yeah, it's like it's surrounded. I mean,

847
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,439
Speaker 1: I sit here. In the thirty five years that I've

848
00:48:57,440 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 1: lived here, this has become one of the you know,

849
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: these counties in Northern Virginia become three of the wealthiest

850
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,280
Speaker 1: counties in America, and they were not that way thirty

851
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 1: five years ago. And it's all defense contractors. It is

852
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:10,919
Speaker 1: all depends contractors, yep.

853
00:49:11,640 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 2: And that those are like vested interests. But but that's

854
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 2: the irony, which is, we spend so much money and

855
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 2: we're not really getting a lot of bang for our

856
00:49:20,920 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 2: bucket anymore. We're really not. And so all these efforts

857
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 2: to kind of say, well, we gotta we gotta do

858
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 2: something different, it's really hard, even though even though there's

859
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: like a mountain of cash to draw from, you know,

860
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: it's it's basically it's all tied up.

861
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: Is there is there a little initiatives or are starting

862
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 1: to work. Yes, yes, and they're little, they're little give

863
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:48,719
Speaker 1: me but little, you know, little relatives of the Pentagon

864
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,920
Speaker 1: budget is like can actually be pretty big, so ten

865
00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: billion dollar program, right, yeah, And it's you know, you

866
00:49:54,719 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: talk to people to Pentagon and it's it's hard to

867
00:49:57,200 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 1: you know, it's hard to get to the Pentagon.

868
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 2: It's hard to get inside of it. It it's hard

869
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:03,919
Speaker 2: to find the right people. I mean, it's just such

870
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 2: a vast place. But like you talk to them and

871
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 2: they they talk about these kind of tiny initiatives and

872
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're very kind of rightly proud of them.

873
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 2: But like you think, boy, that ain't that much, but

874
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 2: they're doing it. There's a thing. There's a thing. For instance,

875
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:23,360
Speaker 2: there's a program called the Replicator Initiative, and it's basically

876
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 2: the Pentagon making drones. You know, the Pentagon making cheap accurate.

877
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:33,440
Speaker 1: Do you we have factories that make drones in this country?

878
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 2: Yes, we do, not, not enough. They're like the company

879
00:50:38,280 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 2: that I wrote about, which is called Andreill uh and

880
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 2: they're they're a very interesting company run by the one

881
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 2: but is very interesting, kind of mad scientists. They're building

882
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 2: they're building a big factory outside of Columbus, Ohio, uh,

883
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 2: for instance. So and I guess because I think one

884
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 2: of the things that one of the things that's also

885
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:04,120
Speaker 2: become clear is that our defense industrial base, you know,

886
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 2: along with the rest of our industrial base, but particularly

887
00:51:07,160 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 2: with defense, it's just been thinned out. There's not that

888
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 2: much there. Like there's a I mentioned this way down

889
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 2: in the story, and it's a long story, so everybody

890
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 2: will be forgiven for not making it to the end.

891
00:51:19,160 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: But there's a company called Govini, and Govini is a

892
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 2: software company, and the Pentagon came to them and they said, look,

893
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:30,040
Speaker 2: find out trace all of our supply lines for all

894
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: of our weapons systems, and tell us come back and

895
00:51:32,080 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 2: tell us where they came from. Fifty thousand supply lines

896
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 2: go to China for and it's everything from you know,

897
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 2: B one bombers, B two bombers, F thirty fives, microchips, everything.

898
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 2: Fifty thousand supply chains go to China for our weapons.

899
00:51:51,480 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 2: And so we still make the stuff here, you know,

900
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 2: we still't make it. And so again like like these

901
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,400
Speaker 2: conversations are happening, but you know, like change is very slow,

902
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 2: but everybody's kind of there is a kind of collective

903
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 2: awakening like, oh my god, this is.

904
00:52:08,440 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 1: The leverage China has over this in these trade disputes.

905
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 2: Oh my god. It's like all you have to do

906
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: is turn it off, you know, which they would do,

907
00:52:14,680 --> 00:52:16,640
Speaker 2: of course, I mean, of course they would turn it off.

908
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're in a lot of trouble.

909
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 1: Obviously, there's been rhetoric that we're trying to reverse this.

910
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:29,280
Speaker 1: Have you seen much evidence yet, Yeah.

911
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 2: There's some, there's some. It's just again it's like, I mean,

912
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:36,720
Speaker 2: you know this as a denizen of Washington, but change

913
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:41,280
Speaker 2: comes very slowly, and particularly to a bureaucracy the size

914
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 2: of the Pentagon. You know, you know, the famous story

915
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 2: of the Pentagon is you know, like the did you

916
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 2: hear the one about the kid that went in as

917
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 2: a private you know, when he got lost in the Pentagon.

918
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 2: He emerged like ten years later as like a bird colonel,

919
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 2: you know. But it's like, and it's true, but it's

920
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:01,920
Speaker 2: like that is kind of it's a good metaphor because

921
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 2: the place is so gigantic and unwieldly it's hard to

922
00:53:06,840 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 2: tell what goes on inside. You can't get your arms

923
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,800
Speaker 2: around it, and it doesn't move, you know, and that

924
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: and that's kind of that's basically what everybody's waking up

925
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 2: to right now. And and I think that you know

926
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 2: that the danger is the danger is like we don't

927
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:25,760
Speaker 2: move fast enough, you know, and and and something bad happens,

928
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: you know, something bad, like you know Taiwan, say.

929
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:33,160
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk Taiwan, because you you referenced a war game.

930
00:53:33,280 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 1: I actually held a war game. I convened one on

931
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 1: China and Taiwan about three years ago as a as

932
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:43,319
Speaker 1: a little streaming UH special report that we did.

933
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:44,239
Speaker 2: Who won?

934
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 1: Who wins every time? Right?

935
00:53:47,960 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 2: China?

936
00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 1: You know it was they even used a nuclear weapon

937
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 1: sort of they didn't launch it anywhere, but they they

938
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 1: exploded one just to show that they could off the

939
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 1: coast of the Pacific. Well, war game, But what was

940
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:09,320
Speaker 1: clear was it's a huge logistics challenge, right to turn Taiwan,

941
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 1: to do for Taiwan what we did for Ukraine. You know,

942
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 1: we had seventy years of NATO to essentially streamline supply

943
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 1: lines and coordination and all of that. There is no

944
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 1: Asian NATO, right and and you just see that. You know,

945
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: if this is a hot war in twenty twenty seven,

946
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:35,479
Speaker 1: which is what some generals have predicted, is America ready

947
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 1: to help Taiwan survive it?

948
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:42,279
Speaker 2: We're not ready. We're not ready. I don't know what

949
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 2: you know? And you you know, for this, as and

950
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 2: as with so many other issues, we have to peer

951
00:54:48,360 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 2: into the mind of Donald Trump and wonder, you know,

952
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 2: would he decide to defend Taiwan or not?

953
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, he could be shocked. I look, and I say this,

954
00:54:57,800 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: forget Donald Trump, dexter. I always say this. If I

955
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 1: put that on a poll question and I asked the

956
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,839
Speaker 1: American people whether our sons and daughters should be sent

957
00:55:07,880 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 1: to defend this island, you know, I don't think you'd

958
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:14,280
Speaker 1: get a majority. I mean, it isn't This isn't something

959
00:55:14,320 --> 00:55:16,919
Speaker 1: that I think America would be signed up for. They'd

960
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:19,760
Speaker 1: sign up for a direct war with China, but not

961
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 1: not a proxy one.

962
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 2: Well, I agree, I agree with you on the on

963
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:27,160
Speaker 2: the politics of it. I think I think when you

964
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 2: when you start to contemplate, say a successful Chinese capture

965
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: of Taiwan, it would be catastrophic for the United States,

966
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 2: and that takes I mean, I think that's true. And

967
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 2: I think if you just start with it's crazy Taiwan,

968
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:48,320
Speaker 2: I mean, who knew. I didn't know this. Taiwan makes

969
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 2: ninety percent of the world's advanced microchips. And so what

970
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 2: that means effectively is that I mean they're all made

971
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 2: in one place. They're all made in one factory called TSMC,

972
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 2: and in Taiwan.

973
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 1: Talk about another like head scratcher, Why do you do

974
00:56:05,000 --> 00:56:08,960
Speaker 1: that happen for this long and and you know who

975
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:12,399
Speaker 1: who gave Taiwan the resources to do this? The United

976
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:13,800
Speaker 1: States of America, right.

977
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And it's a you know, it's a it's

978
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 2: a super enterprising country and people work incredibly hard.

979
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 1: And but like the necessity is the mother of invention, right,

980
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 1: and innovation, yes, and and the and.

981
00:56:27,239 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 2: The but the advanced industrial economies, I think it's fair

982
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 2: to say would be they would come to a halt.

983
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: I mean if if not and if not a halt,

984
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 2: they would be severely constricted. If Taiwan, if the micro

985
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 2: chips of Taiwan make suddenly we're no longer available, and

986
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: and that's just you can't, like, if you're the president

987
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:46,799
Speaker 2: of the United States, you have to go God, like what,

988
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 2: you know, what are we going to do? And in fact,

989
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 2: I remember I was in Taiwan a few years ago

990
00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 2: and and the joke was, you know, if the Chinese invade,

991
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 2: what's the safest place going to be in Taiwan? And

992
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:03,560
Speaker 2: they said, well, it's the basement of TSMCY. Okay, nobody's

993
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 2: going on.

994
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:07,879
Speaker 1: It's the Chinese can't afford to lose access to that either, right, yeah,

995
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:09,319
Speaker 1: And like, but just.

996
00:57:09,280 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 2: To answer your question more fully, I think, you know,

997
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 2: I think that if the Chinese were too captured ti Wan,

998
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 2: I mean, their their goal pretty clearly, they've made it

999
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 2: very clear is to basically push the United States out

1000
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:24,520
Speaker 2: of the Western Pacific.

1001
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 1: Right.

1002
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 2: Uh, that's Japan, that's the Philippines. Those are our friends

1003
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 2: and allies and fellow democracies and so and hopefully we've.

1004
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 1: Seen a lot of trouble are in there too, right yeah,

1005
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 1: I mean that was the question I remember in this

1006
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 1: war game with the AUSSI sign on with the South Koreans,

1007
00:57:43,440 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 1: work with the Japanese to do this, Like there isn't

1008
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 1: this isn't like the alliance that the US would need

1009
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:52,680
Speaker 1: isn't necessarily rock solid yet?

1010
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 2: Right? No, No, not at all, not at all. And

1011
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: that in fact that I wrote it in the piece.

1012
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 2: There's a little bit I went to a game. God,

1013
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 2: it was like really scary, as was probably the one

1014
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:09,800
Speaker 2: you did. A lot of people died, they got out

1015
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 2: of control very very quickly. But one of those one

1016
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:16,040
Speaker 2: of those questions was like what are the Japanese going

1017
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:17,800
Speaker 2: to do? Are they going to jump in on our side?

1018
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 1: You know what?

1019
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 2: What's the Philippines going to do? What are the Chinese

1020
00:58:21,040 --> 00:58:23,280
Speaker 2: going to do. Are the Chinese gonna Are they going

1021
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 2: to strike the American mainland, which they can do? They

1022
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 2: didn't in this in this war game, they did not.

1023
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 1: Did they get I'm curious in your war game, did

1024
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:33,360
Speaker 1: the North Koreans get involved?

1025
00:58:33,920 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 2: No?

1026
00:58:34,560 --> 00:58:37,439
Speaker 1: No, But that was another fear in our war game

1027
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: that the Chinese everything.

1028
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 2: That the guy who's warning the war game, this is

1029
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:46,760
Speaker 2: at the think tank Center for Strategic International Studies, he said, okay, no,

1030
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 2: no nuclear weapons today, nonclear. So yeah, okay, then but

1031
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:55,840
Speaker 2: they do, like I know, they just ran one with

1032
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 2: nukes available if you wanted to use them. But as

1033
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:03,880
Speaker 2: it happened the wargame that I went to and it

1034
00:59:03,880 --> 00:59:06,200
Speaker 2: it didn't start with an invasion of Taiwan. It started

1035
00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 2: started very slowly. It was a blockade. It was a

1036
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 2: Chinese blockade. Some American planes got shot down. Well I

1037
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 2: mean they blockaded and then blockaded Taiwan. But then once

1038
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:24,280
Speaker 2: the shooting started, it just took off, you know, it

1039
00:59:24,440 --> 00:59:27,640
Speaker 2: just took off. And so you know, we were striking

1040
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 2: China and they didn't strike the mainland, but but they

1041
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:35,960
Speaker 2: they destroyed like a quarter of the American air force, uh,

1042
00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 2: thousands of people died on each side, you know, according

1043
00:59:39,800 --> 00:59:42,840
Speaker 2: to this, I thought pretty pretty realistic wargame. We stopped

1044
00:59:42,840 --> 00:59:47,440
Speaker 2: the war game after like four go rounds, but like

1045
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:51,880
Speaker 2: it was ugly, ugly, you know, hideous, not something you

1046
00:59:51,920 --> 01:00:00,160
Speaker 2: want to ever happen in real life.

1047
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 1: Another fear factor that I've heard about that that that

1048
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 1: we haven't brought up yet is low orbit space and satellites,

1049
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 1: and that are we that that would be among the

1050
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:21,959
Speaker 1: first things China might do. And whether you know which

1051
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:24,240
Speaker 1: is the impetus of the space Force. You know, people

1052
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:26,440
Speaker 1: laughed at it at the time, but this is a

1053
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 1: serious issue, security in low orbit space and and and

1054
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 1: our satellites. I know this was a big concern about

1055
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 1: five or six years ago. Have things gotten better? Do

1056
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 1: we feel more confident that we could have security and

1057
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:45,800
Speaker 1: superiority in low orbit?

1058
01:00:47,560 --> 01:00:50,640
Speaker 2: Nobody could answer that question for me, and I think

1059
01:00:51,600 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 2: everybody's really nervous about that. But when I mean, I

1060
01:00:55,040 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 2: think it's a it's a huge issue because when you

1061
01:00:56,920 --> 01:01:00,920
Speaker 2: think about it, we'd say, the worst starts and suddenly

1062
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:03,600
Speaker 2: either you know, either we shoot down their satellites or

1063
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 2: they shoot down ours. You know, the lights go out

1064
01:01:07,240 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 2: right like you're done. You know, we're so reliant on

1065
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:15,480
Speaker 2: these low orbit satellites. Now we haven't fully realized that. Yeah,

1066
01:01:15,560 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 2: we used to keep the lights on without satellites, but

1067
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:20,080
Speaker 2: that isn't how it works anymore. No, Like we would

1068
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,880
Speaker 2: be dead in the water, as would they, and so

1069
01:01:22,960 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 2: in a way, it's kind of mutual assured destruction. In fact,

1070
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 2: the one answer I did get from a couple of

1071
01:01:29,160 --> 01:01:33,120
Speaker 2: people was nobody wants to go there because if you

1072
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 2: if you ended up shooting a lot of satellites, low

1073
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:40,320
Speaker 2: orbit satellites, it would make essentially it would make a

1074
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 2: band around the Earth kind of uninhabitable to other satellites

1075
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 2: for years and years and years, and nobody wants to go.

1076
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:51,040
Speaker 1: The entire planet goes into the dark ages.

1077
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's like yeah, yeah, I mean, it's

1078
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:56,080
Speaker 2: like a science fiction movie. But I think the short

1079
01:01:56,120 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 2: answer is everybody's trying to figure that out out, you know, militarily,

1080
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 2: like how do we destroy their satellites? But they're doing

1081
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 2: the same to us, and so I think everybody's trying

1082
01:02:06,680 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 2: to be like kind of you know, reasonable about it.

1083
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 1: What do we think the Chinese have learned from the

1084
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 1: Ukraine War? Right, we're learning something from the Ukrainians, one

1085
01:02:15,080 --> 01:02:19,560
Speaker 1: would assume, you know, they've never tested their military, that's right.

1086
01:02:19,840 --> 01:02:21,720
Speaker 2: I mean, I think they have that tiny little war

1087
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 2: with nasty little war Vietnam that lasted a couple of months,

1088
01:02:26,720 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 2: you know, like in the seventies. But they're watching the war.

1089
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 2: H Well, I think I think that's pretty clear that

1090
01:02:34,360 --> 01:02:37,720
Speaker 2: the Chinese are watching the war in Ukraine. But they're

1091
01:02:37,760 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 2: they're watching us, you know, they want to see what

1092
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:43,920
Speaker 2: we do. And I think I think what I mean

1093
01:02:43,960 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 2: by that is, you know, are the Americans going to

1094
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 2: tough it out here or are they going to are

1095
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:51,080
Speaker 2: they going to get bored and give up and go

1096
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 2: home and they build that Hey go grab Taiwan. You

1097
01:02:54,440 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 2: might be able to get it without firing a shot exactly.

1098
01:02:56,920 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 2: And so so there's one of the debates that's going

1099
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,240
Speaker 2: on inside the the White House. I mean, it's like

1100
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 2: happening as we speak.

1101
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 1: And I say that, and it's funny. I'm glad you

1102
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:08,520
Speaker 1: put it. Look, there's a lot of debates that don't

1103
01:03:08,520 --> 01:03:11,280
Speaker 1: happen that should happen in this White House. On this

1104
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:14,360
Speaker 1: there's a real debate because there actually are multiple factions,

1105
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:18,040
Speaker 1: right Rubios and Rubio does have his ear to an extent,

1106
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 1: and then you have the Van Swing and some of

1107
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,360
Speaker 1: these other isolations that are in a different spot. And

1108
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:26,160
Speaker 1: it's a real debate. That exactly right, it is.

1109
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 2: It's a real debate, and you can see like one

1110
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 2: day one side wins in the the other one.

1111
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 1: No, I mean you see it in Trump's tweets sometimes. Yeah,

1112
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 1: And like I think here.

1113
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:40,920
Speaker 2: I think that you know, you have the one faction,

1114
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 2: what's called the Vance faction, who cares about Ukraine. Forget

1115
01:03:45,760 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 2: about Ukraine. There's the number three guy at the Pentagon Bridge, Colby,

1116
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 2: under Secretary for Policy. You know, he would say if

1117
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:57,000
Speaker 2: he were on your show, he'd say, we have to

1118
01:03:57,000 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 2: get ready for China, like everything for China. So like Ukraine,

1119
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 2: the Europeans have to worry about that. We got to

1120
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:06,440
Speaker 2: get we got to get ready. I think the problem

1121
01:04:06,440 --> 01:04:08,200
Speaker 2: with that argument, which I you know, I'd like to

1122
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:11,120
Speaker 2: hear him talk, but the problem with that argument is

1123
01:04:11,120 --> 01:04:14,680
Speaker 2: that the Chinese are watching very very closely, and and

1124
01:04:14,720 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 2: I think they're watching our resolve as much as they

1125
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 2: are our capabilities. And so if we abandon an ally

1126
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:26,120
Speaker 2: in the middle of Europe, what does that say about

1127
01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 2: our resolve? To say, support our friends in the Pacific,

1128
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 2: you know, and I think that the Chinese are taking

1129
01:04:31,080 --> 01:04:32,000
Speaker 2: notes for sure.

1130
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 1: I assume that Japanese are taken note as well. Yes, right,

1131
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, and you know, they're obviously investing

1132
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:42,840
Speaker 1: in military, doing more investments than they ever had before.

1133
01:04:44,080 --> 01:04:46,400
Speaker 1: It seems almost as a way of trying to preserve

1134
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:47,440
Speaker 1: the relationship with US.

1135
01:04:48,200 --> 01:04:52,240
Speaker 2: Yes, though there you know, there's it's a big question

1136
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 2: if if the usn't go and China go to war

1137
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:59,720
Speaker 2: over Taiwan, what does Japan do They're not obligated to,

1138
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 2: I'm ben I think I think the chances are pretty

1139
01:05:03,080 --> 01:05:07,439
Speaker 2: great that they would because if only because there's these

1140
01:05:07,520 --> 01:05:12,480
Speaker 2: giant American bases in Japan, you know, Air Force, Navy, everything, Yakuska,

1141
01:05:13,480 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 2: and certainly I think almost certainly in a war with

1142
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:19,800
Speaker 2: the United States, the Chinese would attack those bases. That's

1143
01:05:19,880 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 2: Japanese soil. So I think the odds are pretty strong

1144
01:05:23,880 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 2: that the Japanese would get in. But and that's the

1145
01:05:26,440 --> 01:05:28,520
Speaker 2: that's the thing that is so scary like about these

1146
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 2: war games is like it goes from being as like

1147
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:35,960
Speaker 2: nothing thing in the Straits of Taiwan, right, and it's

1148
01:05:36,000 --> 01:05:38,960
Speaker 2: like it within like forty eight hours, You're in World

1149
01:05:39,000 --> 01:05:41,520
Speaker 2: War three. You know, it just escalates so quickly.

1150
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:47,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go to Israel, uh and their use of

1151
01:05:47,240 --> 01:05:50,480
Speaker 1: artificial intelligence, which you know, when I was reading about it,

1152
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:53,720
Speaker 1: you know, there was a there's you're just sitting there going,

1153
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 1: there's a there's a part of me that just is

1154
01:05:58,600 --> 01:06:02,919
Speaker 1: scared and nervous. A computer is deciding who to kill, right,

1155
01:06:02,960 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 1: You're just sitting there going. And once a computer decides,

1156
01:06:06,400 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 1: there's no human to stop it if it turns out

1157
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 1: you had bad intel, right, I mean, you know AI

1158
01:06:13,120 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 1: AI is you know, it's a probability model, and I

1159
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 1: get that, but not everybody understands that, and they you know,

1160
01:06:21,120 --> 01:06:25,120
Speaker 1: there is this almost you know, the fear I have

1161
01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 1: is there's almost like this belief in a super capability

1162
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:32,560
Speaker 1: of AI that they're never wrong. And it's like okay,

1163
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:36,760
Speaker 1: and it does feel like, you know, the Israelis are

1164
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 1: relying on it. Now, is it really this reliable?

1165
01:06:40,000 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think the short answers it's not

1166
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 2: always reliable. I mean, I think we can see the

1167
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 2: evidence on the ground. But I think what's so interesting

1168
01:06:50,840 --> 01:06:53,880
Speaker 2: about the Israelis You're doing and I'll just sort of

1169
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:57,360
Speaker 2: walk you through as it was explained to me before

1170
01:06:57,400 --> 01:07:01,360
Speaker 2: every war that Israel has had with Gaza, with Hasbola,

1171
01:07:01,680 --> 01:07:03,640
Speaker 2: they have a target list. You know, they have like

1172
01:07:04,240 --> 01:07:07,360
Speaker 2: two thousand names and like and their name, their names,

1173
01:07:07,360 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 2: they're people. There's a file, there's a photo like we're

1174
01:07:10,160 --> 01:07:13,560
Speaker 2: gonna kill Abu Ahmed. The moment the balloon goes up,

1175
01:07:13,760 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 2: that guy's dead, We're going after him. There's like two

1176
01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:20,560
Speaker 2: thousand of those. So what happens in the current war,

1177
01:07:20,640 --> 01:07:23,560
Speaker 2: the one that started in October twenty twenty three, the

1178
01:07:23,640 --> 01:07:27,400
Speaker 2: Israeli shot that target list in a couple of days.

1179
01:07:28,480 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 2: They went after everybody, and they wanted to keep going.

1180
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:34,560
Speaker 2: And so this is where AI comes in. So AI

1181
01:07:34,640 --> 01:07:39,120
Speaker 2: is essentially identifying people who they don't know, like who

1182
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 2: is that guy in the ground, And so what AI does.

1183
01:07:42,320 --> 01:07:49,440
Speaker 2: It gathers like everything drone footage, social media posts, telephone records,

1184
01:07:49,840 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 2: property records, and so it says, we don't know who

1185
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,120
Speaker 2: that guy is, but he's going into a house that

1186
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:59,240
Speaker 2: like Hamas uses his brothers in Jimas and yesterday morning

1187
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 2: he was on the phone with another guy who's in

1188
01:08:00,840 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 2: a moss So so the AI machine spits out this

1189
01:08:05,360 --> 01:08:09,680
Speaker 2: target and it's basically a coordinate hit this and that,

1190
01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:12,640
Speaker 2: and so the Israelis will say, you know, they'll pound

1191
01:08:12,760 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 2: the table when they say this. They'll say, like, it's

1192
01:08:14,720 --> 01:08:18,080
Speaker 2: the computer's not deciding, you know, the human always has

1193
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:21,880
Speaker 2: has the decision making power. But it's like, yeah, but

1194
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:24,200
Speaker 2: if you get the recommendation, like how many times are

1195
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 2: they detailing that? Now that again there's Raelis will say,

1196
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:30,960
Speaker 2: you know, we only we only hit the target that

1197
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:34,280
Speaker 2: AI recommends, you know, one in every five times or

1198
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:36,439
Speaker 2: one in every ten. But still, you know, there's been

1199
01:08:36,479 --> 01:08:40,040
Speaker 2: a lot of there's been a lot of mistakes for sure.

1200
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 1: What you know, there's been some big announcements that you have,

1201
01:08:45,200 --> 01:08:50,559
Speaker 1: like Palenteer in particular is going to be more involved

1202
01:08:50,600 --> 01:08:53,960
Speaker 1: in the Pentagon. Obviously they've been pretty involved with what

1203
01:08:54,080 --> 01:08:56,840
Speaker 1: Israel has been doing. What what is it that Palenteer

1204
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:57,240
Speaker 1: can do?

1205
01:08:57,880 --> 01:09:01,240
Speaker 2: Well, Now, that's like it's such a great question because

1206
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:05,719
Speaker 2: it's so basic, and what Palenteer does is so basic.

1207
01:09:06,520 --> 01:09:08,559
Speaker 2: I mean it's super important and it's really difficult, but

1208
01:09:08,600 --> 01:09:13,080
Speaker 2: it's like really basic. All Palenteer does. Somebody somebody describe

1209
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:16,400
Speaker 2: it to me as they said, like, you know, Anderil,

1210
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 2: you know, the company that makes drones. There the front end.

1211
01:09:20,080 --> 01:09:22,200
Speaker 2: We're the back end. They're they're like the back end.

1212
01:09:23,320 --> 01:09:30,680
Speaker 2: They Palneer basically connects computer systems and brings all the

1213
01:09:30,800 --> 01:09:35,960
Speaker 2: data into one place. And so at a place like well,

1214
01:09:36,040 --> 01:09:38,880
Speaker 2: if if in a place like Washington where they're now

1215
01:09:38,920 --> 01:09:43,360
Speaker 2: doing billions of dollars with their contracts, billions, they you know,

1216
01:09:43,360 --> 01:09:46,880
Speaker 2: if they go to the Pentagon, and the Pentagon says, look,

1217
01:09:46,880 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 2: we've got the CIA, we have the National Intelligence Agency,

1218
01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:56,600
Speaker 2: we have the National Reconnaissance Agency, we have the Geospatial

1219
01:09:56,920 --> 01:10:01,240
Speaker 2: Satellite Agency, all these different agencies, all these different satellites,

1220
01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:04,200
Speaker 2: all these different sensors, and none of them talk to

1221
01:10:04,240 --> 01:10:07,120
Speaker 2: each other. Like they're all completely different. So if you're

1222
01:10:07,160 --> 01:10:09,439
Speaker 2: trying to you know, I hate to go there, but

1223
01:10:09,479 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 2: if you're if you're trying to run a war in

1224
01:10:11,320 --> 01:10:13,720
Speaker 2: the Pacific, you need to do you need to have

1225
01:10:13,760 --> 01:10:17,360
Speaker 2: all of them. And so literally none of these systems

1226
01:10:17,360 --> 01:10:20,479
Speaker 2: talk to each other. They don't communicate with each other. Time.

1227
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:22,639
Speaker 1: Let me push back on that. Now, here's what somebody,

1228
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:28,200
Speaker 1: a cybersecurity person would say, Hey, that's a feature not above, that's.

1229
01:10:28,040 --> 01:10:30,360
Speaker 2: A really good point. That's a really good point, like.

1230
01:10:30,640 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 1: The Big Fear, right, the Big fear I went knee

1231
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 1: deep into in the cyst sense and the cybersecurity folks,

1232
01:10:37,920 --> 01:10:42,680
Speaker 1: and a weird connection with a parent friend of you know,

1233
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,679
Speaker 1: one of these weird parent connections, you end up learning

1234
01:10:45,680 --> 01:10:49,400
Speaker 1: more about a certain part. And that you know, because

1235
01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:52,000
Speaker 1: when you look at the government, you think, hey, why

1236
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:55,040
Speaker 1: isn't there sort of more shared cybersecurity? It would be yeah,

1237
01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:57,400
Speaker 1: well here's the problem. Do you want one agency down

1238
01:10:57,479 --> 01:10:59,080
Speaker 1: for a day or do you want the entire federal

1239
01:10:59,080 --> 01:11:03,280
Speaker 1: government shutdown? A disciple and so? And I assume that's

1240
01:11:03,360 --> 01:11:05,879
Speaker 1: you know, times one hundred in our national security.

1241
01:11:06,600 --> 01:11:11,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. I mean you hear. The great example I

1242
01:11:11,240 --> 01:11:16,400
Speaker 2: got was about how hacked up and chopped up the

1243
01:11:16,720 --> 01:11:21,200
Speaker 2: the Pentagon is say said, look, if you're if you're

1244
01:11:21,240 --> 01:11:24,920
Speaker 2: a pilot in an F thirty five flying around and

1245
01:11:25,000 --> 01:11:27,040
Speaker 2: there's a pilot right next to you in an F eighteen.

1246
01:11:28,120 --> 01:11:30,840
Speaker 2: They can't talk to each other. So the only way

1247
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:32,800
Speaker 2: the only way they can communicate is like right on

1248
01:11:32,840 --> 01:11:34,960
Speaker 2: pieces of paper and like hold it up to the windshield.

1249
01:11:35,000 --> 01:11:37,599
Speaker 2: You know, these things cost one hundred million dollars each,

1250
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:41,360
Speaker 2: you know, but I think the I think the imperative,

1251
01:11:41,600 --> 01:11:46,840
Speaker 2: as they would say, is that the modern war as

1252
01:11:46,880 --> 01:11:52,479
Speaker 2: they see it, will require really really rapid decision making

1253
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:56,720
Speaker 2: and rapid coordination of all these assets, which is to say,

1254
01:11:56,760 --> 01:12:00,360
Speaker 2: if you can, if you can imagine as they're to do,

1255
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:03,479
Speaker 2: If you can imagine a fleet of Chinese ships traveling

1256
01:12:03,560 --> 01:12:07,360
Speaker 2: through the Pacific, there's like three or four different satellites

1257
01:12:07,360 --> 01:12:11,200
Speaker 2: that have to work together in order to target those ships. Uh,

1258
01:12:11,760 --> 01:12:14,160
Speaker 2: and so that and and you know, guide the guide

1259
01:12:14,160 --> 01:12:17,000
Speaker 2: the weapons to them, and they and and so it's

1260
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:20,080
Speaker 2: it's almost like a ballet. And so that that ballet

1261
01:12:20,160 --> 01:12:23,240
Speaker 2: is like not possible at the moment. It's just it

1262
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:23,799
Speaker 2: would take.

1263
01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:24,120
Speaker 1: A long time.

1264
01:12:24,200 --> 01:12:24,240
Speaker 2: No.

1265
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:26,400
Speaker 1: And then what you're describing though, is like I'm having

1266
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:30,240
Speaker 1: a warped flashback to the movie War Games, where suddenly

1267
01:12:30,240 --> 01:12:35,200
Speaker 1: it is computers essentially playing a game with each other

1268
01:12:35,800 --> 01:12:37,200
Speaker 1: while us humans watch.

1269
01:12:38,120 --> 01:12:40,920
Speaker 2: Look, I think some of this stuff is pretty scary

1270
01:12:40,960 --> 01:12:43,000
Speaker 2: when you when you play it out. And I you know,

1271
01:12:43,080 --> 01:12:47,479
Speaker 2: the Brian Shimp, who's this incredibly smart guy that runs

1272
01:12:47,640 --> 01:12:53,800
Speaker 2: Anderill the the Weapons Company, he described the scenario and

1273
01:12:53,840 --> 01:12:56,439
Speaker 2: he said, imagine, you know, like a big area in

1274
01:12:56,479 --> 01:12:58,439
Speaker 2: the Pacific. Let's say it's you know, thirty miles by

1275
01:12:58,439 --> 01:13:02,200
Speaker 2: thirty miles. And let's say there's squadron of Chinese ships

1276
01:13:02,200 --> 01:13:04,160
Speaker 2: that's moving through it. Now, you know, the Pacific's a

1277
01:13:04,160 --> 01:13:07,320
Speaker 2: big place. Let's say there's a squadron of ships. What

1278
01:13:07,720 --> 01:13:10,640
Speaker 2: we want to be able to do is fire a

1279
01:13:10,680 --> 01:13:14,439
Speaker 2: bunch of missiles at those ships and and that's it,

1280
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:17,719
Speaker 2: and then sit back. Basically, because we're going to assume

1281
01:13:17,760 --> 01:13:19,920
Speaker 2: that we will be cut off from communications with all

1282
01:13:19,960 --> 01:13:22,879
Speaker 2: of our weapons anyway, because the Chinese will be jamming everything,

1283
01:13:23,720 --> 01:13:26,599
Speaker 2: but that those weapons individually will be able to find

1284
01:13:26,640 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 2: the ships, they'll be able to figure out with each

1285
01:13:29,479 --> 01:13:32,960
Speaker 2: other so that they don't duplicate each other's efforts, and

1286
01:13:32,960 --> 01:13:34,840
Speaker 2: they'll be able to do these things on their own,

1287
01:13:35,520 --> 01:13:39,439
Speaker 2: which means like thinking and talking. And you know, they've

1288
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:43,640
Speaker 2: got brains, these these these weapons, and so it's not

1289
01:13:43,760 --> 01:13:47,479
Speaker 2: difficult to imagine that getting out of control is not

1290
01:13:47,560 --> 01:13:50,360
Speaker 2: that hard. You know, Like what happens if they what

1291
01:13:50,400 --> 01:13:53,040
Speaker 2: happens is the ships aren't there, they go somewhere else,

1292
01:13:53,160 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 2: you know, or they turn around. I mean, I you know,

1293
01:13:56,400 --> 01:14:00,360
Speaker 2: like what happens? Yeah, I mean to say nothing of like,

1294
01:14:00,840 --> 01:14:02,920
Speaker 2: how do you know that ship is a battleship and

1295
01:14:02,960 --> 01:14:03,880
Speaker 2: not a hospital ship.

1296
01:14:04,120 --> 01:14:09,400
Speaker 1: You know, is is it Palenteer, that's the the main

1297
01:14:11,560 --> 01:14:14,320
Speaker 1: UH company help in the Israelis.

1298
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:17,200
Speaker 2: It's one. It's one of them. It's one of them.

1299
01:14:17,600 --> 01:14:21,519
Speaker 2: Palenteer does this. It's it's amazing, it really is. I

1300
01:14:21,920 --> 01:14:25,760
Speaker 2: sat in the Paleteer office in Washington and they've got

1301
01:14:25,760 --> 01:14:28,760
Speaker 2: they got a bunch of different offices. But because I said, like,

1302
01:14:28,840 --> 01:14:30,320
Speaker 2: you know what, can you just start of showing me

1303
01:14:30,360 --> 01:14:33,519
Speaker 2: what you're doing, you know? And so they took me

1304
01:14:33,560 --> 01:14:36,200
Speaker 2: in this room and it was a huge map, an

1305
01:14:36,200 --> 01:14:39,760
Speaker 2: aerial map of eastern Ukraine. And they said, look, this

1306
01:14:39,840 --> 01:14:42,040
Speaker 2: is just a notional map. It's not like a real

1307
01:14:42,120 --> 01:14:45,679
Speaker 2: time thing. But basically it was everything that you could

1308
01:14:45,720 --> 01:14:49,360
Speaker 2: possibly see on the ground. You could see it, the

1309
01:14:49,800 --> 01:14:55,560
Speaker 2: Russian military formations, the Ukrainian military formations, all the communications

1310
01:14:55,600 --> 01:14:58,720
Speaker 2: that were happening. And then so you know, we were

1311
01:14:58,760 --> 01:15:00,639
Speaker 2: just looking at this map and he said, the guy

1312
01:15:00,680 --> 01:15:02,599
Speaker 2: Paler said, let's go, let's go down to the ground.

1313
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:05,240
Speaker 2: Take a closer look. He's like that thing right there,

1314
01:15:05,280 --> 01:15:07,800
Speaker 2: what's that that looks like a tank? That looks like

1315
01:15:07,840 --> 01:15:09,800
Speaker 2: a Russian tank? Do you want to take out that

1316
01:15:09,880 --> 01:15:13,600
Speaker 2: Russian tank? Let's see what's available to take out that

1317
01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:15,800
Speaker 2: Russian tank. So then he clicked on something and then

1318
01:15:15,840 --> 01:15:18,360
Speaker 2: it was like, well, there's some drones up here that

1319
01:15:18,439 --> 01:15:20,800
Speaker 2: we could use, or there's some artillery we could use.

1320
01:15:20,840 --> 01:15:23,400
Speaker 2: But you know, the drones, the Russian tanks are kind

1321
01:15:23,400 --> 01:15:25,240
Speaker 2: of a low priority target. So we're going to use

1322
01:15:25,240 --> 01:15:26,680
Speaker 2: a drone. You have to wait for a while. Why

1323
01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:29,840
Speaker 2: don't we use the artillery that's a lot faster. Click click,

1324
01:15:29,880 --> 01:15:35,880
Speaker 2: click was done. We didn't we didn't, as it happens,

1325
01:15:35,880 --> 01:15:38,840
Speaker 2: we didn't blow that tank up. But but but that's

1326
01:15:38,880 --> 01:15:39,559
Speaker 2: kind of what they do.

1327
01:15:39,640 --> 01:15:46,720
Speaker 4: So all of the satellites, sensors, every every piece of

1328
01:15:46,720 --> 01:15:50,280
Speaker 4: information you could imagine was being channeled into that screen.

1329
01:15:50,439 --> 01:15:52,439
Speaker 2: And that's screen is called Maven. By the way, that's

1330
01:15:53,040 --> 01:15:55,800
Speaker 2: that's the pro and the Palanteer. I mean really to

1331
01:15:55,880 --> 01:15:58,559
Speaker 2: their credit, they gave it to the Ukrainians. They just

1332
01:15:58,600 --> 01:16:01,040
Speaker 2: like gave it to them when the war started. They said,

1333
01:16:01,080 --> 01:16:03,120
Speaker 2: just take it, will help you run it. We're going

1334
01:16:03,160 --> 01:16:07,040
Speaker 2: to need this. And the Ukrainians use it, but the

1335
01:16:07,080 --> 01:16:10,880
Speaker 2: Americans use that like the Pentagon uses that Maven all

1336
01:16:10,880 --> 01:16:13,360
Speaker 2: over the place. And it's software, but it's like incredibly

1337
01:16:13,400 --> 01:16:15,519
Speaker 2: effective how much.

1338
01:16:15,360 --> 01:16:19,840
Speaker 1: Does this desensitize war? I'm sorry, how much does this

1339
01:16:20,000 --> 01:16:23,400
Speaker 1: desensitize war? You know? If you see it as a

1340
01:16:23,479 --> 01:16:26,320
Speaker 1: video game board? I mean, I'm sorry to be calling

1341
01:16:26,360 --> 01:16:34,280
Speaker 1: it that, but that's what right, it's you know, you're, you're, you're,

1342
01:16:34,360 --> 01:16:36,960
Speaker 1: it's a target, it's not a human right, And so

1343
01:16:37,000 --> 01:16:39,479
Speaker 1: it's this extra you know, I know, this was a

1344
01:16:39,520 --> 01:16:41,880
Speaker 1: conversation that was had about fifteen years ago when these

1345
01:16:41,960 --> 01:16:46,440
Speaker 1: drone pilots in Nevada. Yeah, we're killing people in Afghanistan

1346
01:16:46,479 --> 01:16:49,880
Speaker 1: and Pakistan and then going you know, oh, all right,

1347
01:16:49,920 --> 01:16:52,200
Speaker 1: my shift's up, and now I'm supposed to you know,

1348
01:16:53,320 --> 01:16:55,439
Speaker 1: and some of them internalized it, some of them didn't.

1349
01:16:56,479 --> 01:16:59,599
Speaker 1: I mean, this is an entirely and I don't know,

1350
01:16:59,720 --> 01:17:03,000
Speaker 1: like how does the Pentagon deal with that? Is there?

1351
01:17:03,160 --> 01:17:04,800
Speaker 1: Do they even think about those things?

1352
01:17:05,840 --> 01:17:07,880
Speaker 2: I think so. But but as you say, I mean,

1353
01:17:07,880 --> 01:17:12,400
Speaker 2: that's it's a it feels remote and it looks remote,

1354
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:14,520
Speaker 2: and you know it is remote, and.

1355
01:17:14,240 --> 01:17:16,559
Speaker 1: And it makes it easier to do and.

1356
01:17:16,520 --> 01:17:19,000
Speaker 2: You're not you're not hearing the screams. Yeah, that that

1357
01:17:19,000 --> 01:17:21,360
Speaker 2: that is for sure. And like the for instance, when

1358
01:17:21,360 --> 01:17:23,920
Speaker 2: I was in Israel, I had a long conversation with

1359
01:17:24,880 --> 01:17:27,280
Speaker 2: a target. He was one of the guys that was

1360
01:17:27,280 --> 01:17:30,560
Speaker 2: basically pulling the trigger, and he was he was explaining

1361
01:17:30,600 --> 01:17:33,920
Speaker 2: me how AI works, and he said, you know it,

1362
01:17:34,320 --> 01:17:36,880
Speaker 2: you know, grinds all this information and then it spits

1363
01:17:36,920 --> 01:17:39,280
Speaker 2: out a target and it says like, do you you

1364
01:17:39,280 --> 01:17:41,960
Speaker 2: know you should hit this target eighty percent certainty that

1365
01:17:42,160 --> 01:17:45,320
Speaker 2: it's a bad guy, and then like you know, he

1366
01:17:45,400 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 2: talks a couple of people only like signs off on it,

1367
01:17:47,479 --> 01:17:49,439
Speaker 2: and like we we had this whole conversation over like

1368
01:17:49,479 --> 01:17:53,560
Speaker 2: a really nice lunch, like not far from the Mediterranean

1369
01:17:53,800 --> 01:17:57,439
Speaker 2: in tel Aviv. You know, it doesn't make it feel.

1370
01:17:57,280 --> 01:17:59,479
Speaker 1: Setting right, tel Aviv doesn't make it.

1371
01:17:59,720 --> 01:18:00,320
Speaker 2: I am guy.

1372
01:18:00,680 --> 01:18:02,559
Speaker 1: I remember the first time I went to Televiv. I went, hey,

1373
01:18:02,560 --> 01:18:03,400
Speaker 1: this is Miami beach.

1374
01:18:03,760 --> 01:18:10,439
Speaker 2: Ye yes it is my Yeah, h.

1375
01:18:16,120 --> 01:18:20,200
Speaker 1: Well this is a good transition to UH military recruitment.

1376
01:18:22,560 --> 01:18:28,160
Speaker 1: This has been an ongoing problem, both quality and quantity.

1377
01:18:30,520 --> 01:18:33,320
Speaker 1: An he has this turned around at all? And is

1378
01:18:33,360 --> 01:18:36,760
Speaker 1: there a concern that it's recruitment's getting say politicized.

1379
01:18:37,640 --> 01:18:42,800
Speaker 2: It has turned around. It has turned around, and I

1380
01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:45,240
Speaker 2: think Donald Trump would take credit for that, and and

1381
01:18:45,280 --> 01:18:47,559
Speaker 2: he he he may be entitled to it. I mean,

1382
01:18:47,560 --> 01:18:51,200
Speaker 2: it's very it's very difficult to understand. I mean it's

1383
01:18:51,200 --> 01:18:54,559
Speaker 2: not it's not where it needs to be. But you know,

1384
01:18:54,560 --> 01:18:56,360
Speaker 2: we can sort of talk about all those all those

1385
01:18:56,439 --> 01:19:02,720
Speaker 2: reasons why. But I wrote about this problem like a

1386
01:19:02,800 --> 01:19:04,679
Speaker 2: year and a half ago when it was really really

1387
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:07,720
Speaker 2: at a low, really dial, and it is like they

1388
01:19:07,960 --> 01:19:11,800
Speaker 2: you know, they can't get people to join, and.

1389
01:19:11,920 --> 01:19:15,280
Speaker 1: There's nothing like an economic downturn that will increase military recruiting.

1390
01:19:15,560 --> 01:19:19,080
Speaker 2: I mean, thing that shocked me, the thing that shocked

1391
01:19:19,120 --> 01:19:25,320
Speaker 2: me about about reporting that story was you know that

1392
01:19:25,360 --> 01:19:29,719
Speaker 2: the numbers are astounding. It's something like three quarters of

1393
01:19:30,439 --> 01:19:34,240
Speaker 2: American men and women between the ages of eighteen and

1394
01:19:34,960 --> 01:19:38,880
Speaker 2: thirty four, sort of prime physical years of your life

1395
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:42,920
Speaker 2: do not qualify for military service because they're either they're

1396
01:19:42,960 --> 01:19:48,519
Speaker 2: too overweight, or they have some prior illness or some

1397
01:19:48,600 --> 01:19:52,519
Speaker 2: kind of mental disability can't pass the test. Three quarters,

1398
01:19:52,560 --> 01:19:56,360
Speaker 2: like gone, seventy seven percent of young people in this

1399
01:19:56,400 --> 01:19:58,240
Speaker 2: country are out right away.

1400
01:19:58,400 --> 01:20:02,040
Speaker 1: Have our standards changed or I mean, well, what's what

1401
01:20:02,120 --> 01:20:02,479
Speaker 1: I did?

1402
01:20:02,520 --> 01:20:06,639
Speaker 2: Was I the army. The army, like you know, they're

1403
01:20:06,720 --> 01:20:09,240
Speaker 2: they're the guys that are dealing with this are freaking out.

1404
01:20:09,840 --> 01:20:13,479
Speaker 2: So they set up I can't remember. It's like it's

1405
01:20:13,520 --> 01:20:16,160
Speaker 2: called something. It has some glorified name, like the Future

1406
01:20:16,400 --> 01:20:20,320
Speaker 2: Soldier Training Courts or something, but it's basically a fat farm,

1407
01:20:20,560 --> 01:20:24,639
Speaker 2: you know. And so you come there, you show up

1408
01:20:24,840 --> 01:20:28,760
Speaker 2: if you're overweight, because you know, you can't just you

1409
01:20:28,800 --> 01:20:31,200
Speaker 2: can't be like obese and join the military. You have

1410
01:20:31,240 --> 01:20:36,479
Speaker 2: to be like your weight has to has to you know,

1411
01:20:36,520 --> 01:20:38,840
Speaker 2: it has to match essentially your height. And there's you know,

1412
01:20:38,880 --> 01:20:39,720
Speaker 2: there's various.

1413
01:20:39,520 --> 01:20:42,679
Speaker 1: The Army is going to become like the greatest, biggest

1414
01:20:42,720 --> 01:20:44,080
Speaker 1: procurer of Ozempica.

1415
01:20:44,800 --> 01:20:47,360
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, I mean, well they haven't. They haven't gone

1416
01:20:47,400 --> 01:20:50,320
Speaker 2: there yet, but you know, I think that's next, right,

1417
01:20:50,360 --> 01:20:53,519
Speaker 2: but if you so so so many you know, close

1418
01:20:53,560 --> 01:20:58,080
Speaker 2: to three quarters of the kids can't qualify because they're

1419
01:20:58,120 --> 01:21:01,760
Speaker 2: too overweight. And so they've set up a kind of

1420
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:05,559
Speaker 2: pre boot camp boot camp and basically you're there to

1421
01:21:05,560 --> 01:21:09,719
Speaker 2: lose weight. And so I went down to this camp,

1422
01:21:09,760 --> 01:21:12,080
Speaker 2: and you know, the great thing about and it's like,

1423
01:21:12,240 --> 01:21:14,640
Speaker 2: you know, you you kind of fall in love with

1424
01:21:14,640 --> 01:21:16,759
Speaker 2: America when you go to a place like this, because

1425
01:21:17,600 --> 01:21:21,479
Speaker 2: the kids are amazing. You know, they talked about anything,

1426
01:21:21,520 --> 01:21:24,240
Speaker 2: they talked about their whole lives and like I remember

1427
01:21:24,320 --> 01:21:27,200
Speaker 2: talking to this one woman she's like nineteen, you know,

1428
01:21:27,400 --> 01:21:30,120
Speaker 2: she came in and she was really really overweight. I

1429
01:21:30,120 --> 01:21:32,080
Speaker 2: can't remember. You know, she weighed like, you know, two

1430
01:21:32,120 --> 01:21:35,840
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty pounds and she was gonna make way

1431
01:21:36,040 --> 01:21:38,720
Speaker 2: like she was all the way down. She was like

1432
01:21:38,720 --> 01:21:39,639
Speaker 2: two pounds away.

1433
01:21:39,760 --> 01:21:42,040
Speaker 1: She had a reality TV show the way you're.

1434
01:21:42,320 --> 01:21:44,880
Speaker 2: It was amazing. But you know, she was like she's

1435
01:21:44,920 --> 01:21:48,040
Speaker 2: from some small town in Ohio and like, you know,

1436
01:21:48,240 --> 01:21:50,400
Speaker 2: like her dad had like a band in the family

1437
01:21:50,479 --> 01:21:53,200
Speaker 2: and like she'd help like you know, raise like her

1438
01:21:53,240 --> 01:21:56,320
Speaker 2: brothers and like and you know, she's like I was

1439
01:21:56,400 --> 01:21:59,200
Speaker 2: just eating like really bad food and like sure and

1440
01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:01,479
Speaker 2: playing video games all day. And that's kind of like,

1441
01:22:02,600 --> 01:22:04,559
Speaker 2: you know, it's like the world we live in, you know.

1442
01:22:04,640 --> 01:22:09,679
Speaker 2: And so, but but what was really touching about hanging

1443
01:22:09,720 --> 01:22:11,800
Speaker 2: out with all these nineteen year olds is like you know,

1444
01:22:11,840 --> 01:22:15,400
Speaker 2: they're they're super motivated, like they want to do it,

1445
01:22:15,680 --> 01:22:18,000
Speaker 2: like they really want it, and like they were they

1446
01:22:18,000 --> 01:22:20,120
Speaker 2: were doing it, you know, they they were doing it.

1447
01:22:21,840 --> 01:22:24,519
Speaker 1: What sizes of force do we need? Like we just

1448
01:22:24,600 --> 01:22:27,280
Speaker 1: spent half an hour talking about drum you know, right,

1449
01:22:27,600 --> 01:22:29,719
Speaker 1: So and at the same time, we're saying we're our

1450
01:22:29,760 --> 01:22:33,600
Speaker 1: recruitment's down, But what do we need? You know, we

1451
01:22:33,680 --> 01:22:34,240
Speaker 1: know that job.

1452
01:22:34,280 --> 01:22:37,800
Speaker 2: It's a great question because when you you know, you

1453
01:22:38,280 --> 01:22:41,000
Speaker 2: the first half of this conversation we talked about you know,

1454
01:22:41,360 --> 01:22:44,719
Speaker 2: drones and AI and automating all these things that don't

1455
01:22:44,760 --> 01:22:49,320
Speaker 2: need people. And I remember this guy. I was talking

1456
01:22:49,320 --> 01:22:52,760
Speaker 2: to this general and we were talking about just the

1457
01:22:52,920 --> 01:22:54,840
Speaker 2: subject and he said, you know, we really need we

1458
01:22:54,880 --> 01:22:57,920
Speaker 2: need like cyber we need like cyber warriors and any

1459
01:22:57,960 --> 01:23:00,599
Speaker 2: kind of pause and he said, like, fact, it's welcome.

1460
01:23:01,880 --> 01:23:02,719
Speaker 1: That kid's welcome.

1461
01:23:03,080 --> 01:23:07,680
Speaker 2: But the truth is like factions art welcome. But you know,

1462
01:23:07,840 --> 01:23:09,880
Speaker 2: it makes you think you're thinking, like, look, if all

1463
01:23:09,880 --> 01:23:12,200
Speaker 2: we're doing is like or if a good chunk of

1464
01:23:12,200 --> 01:23:16,360
Speaker 2: the military now is basically just you know, doing cyber

1465
01:23:16,400 --> 01:23:21,800
Speaker 2: war and radar and tracking and satellites, do they really

1466
01:23:21,880 --> 01:23:25,160
Speaker 2: need to be able to fit? You know, they're not

1467
01:23:25,240 --> 01:23:26,720
Speaker 2: gonna you know, they don't have to do a ten

1468
01:23:26,760 --> 01:23:30,519
Speaker 2: mile hike and then you know, cut somebody's throat, so

1469
01:23:30,600 --> 01:23:33,000
Speaker 2: like they do they really need that? And so that's

1470
01:23:33,040 --> 01:23:34,680
Speaker 2: one debate, and then the other as you say, like

1471
01:23:34,680 --> 01:23:37,080
Speaker 2: why do we need all these people anyway to do

1472
01:23:37,200 --> 01:23:40,120
Speaker 2: what Like, I don't think seems like it's a good

1473
01:23:40,160 --> 01:23:43,960
Speaker 2: bet we're not going to a rock or Afghanistan anytime soon.

1474
01:23:44,400 --> 01:23:47,479
Speaker 2: Like the country's like no way.

1475
01:23:48,000 --> 01:23:50,160
Speaker 1: In that nation building for at least the rest of

1476
01:23:50,200 --> 01:23:52,960
Speaker 1: my I guess, the rest of our time on Earth. Right,

1477
01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:56,000
Speaker 1: maybe you know, maybe maybe that'll come back in twenty

1478
01:23:56,000 --> 01:24:00,160
Speaker 1: five years, but that ain't happening once everybody forgets about it. Yeah, right,

1479
01:24:00,240 --> 01:24:03,160
Speaker 1: we did Vietnam and this, we tried that. Then you know,

1480
01:24:03,320 --> 01:24:05,160
Speaker 1: thirty years later we try it again. I guess maybe

1481
01:24:05,200 --> 01:24:09,840
Speaker 1: every thirty years forgot Yeah, we'll tuck ourselves into it. Well,

1482
01:24:10,840 --> 01:24:15,400
Speaker 1: that then dovetails to fractured alliances. Right, what made our

1483
01:24:15,479 --> 01:24:21,400
Speaker 1: military so strong was NATO and these incredible you know,

1484
01:24:21,640 --> 01:24:24,160
Speaker 1: that's sort of the it's obviously the biggest symbol of

1485
01:24:24,200 --> 01:24:28,719
Speaker 1: our alliances, but frankly seamless. It was becoming a seamless alliance.

1486
01:24:30,120 --> 01:24:33,360
Speaker 1: And now obviously the rise of nationalism. It's not just here,

1487
01:24:33,840 --> 01:24:36,240
Speaker 1: it's in the UK, it's everywhere. And the rise of

1488
01:24:36,360 --> 01:24:41,719
Speaker 1: nationalism is going to mean less cooperation even among our allies.

1489
01:24:42,520 --> 01:24:45,240
Speaker 1: What kind of peril does this put our military in?

1490
01:24:47,080 --> 01:24:49,960
Speaker 2: Well, like we're not strong enough that we don't need friends.

1491
01:24:50,320 --> 01:24:53,479
Speaker 2: You know, nobody is like got to have friends. It's

1492
01:24:53,520 --> 01:24:58,240
Speaker 2: good to have friends. And I think, look, you know, Trump,

1493
01:24:58,560 --> 01:25:02,280
Speaker 2: Trump has spent the last six months bashing the Europeans.

1494
01:25:03,240 --> 01:25:08,320
Speaker 2: Our friends, our best friends who we need. But so

1495
01:25:08,400 --> 01:25:10,479
Speaker 2: it's it's a little it's a little hard to kind

1496
01:25:10,520 --> 01:25:15,080
Speaker 2: of figure out that whole act because you know, Trump

1497
01:25:15,160 --> 01:25:18,280
Speaker 2: is very crude, he's overbearing. Uh, he threatens to leave

1498
01:25:18,320 --> 01:25:21,200
Speaker 2: the Alliance. He's like, we don't need you, screw you,

1499
01:25:21,360 --> 01:25:24,840
Speaker 2: We're out of here. NATO's a joke. But he hasn't

1500
01:25:24,840 --> 01:25:27,479
Speaker 2: done any of that, you know. I mean, we still

1501
01:25:27,520 --> 01:25:30,559
Speaker 2: have a lot of troops in Europe on the front line,

1502
01:25:31,000 --> 01:25:35,280
Speaker 2: you know, Lithuania and other places, and and so, but

1503
01:25:35,400 --> 01:25:37,520
Speaker 2: he has like scared the hell out of the Europeans,

1504
01:25:38,240 --> 01:25:40,800
Speaker 2: and so they're now they've now committed, i think, pretty

1505
01:25:40,880 --> 01:25:45,599
Speaker 2: resolutely to increase their dispense defense spending, which I think

1506
01:25:45,640 --> 01:25:49,519
Speaker 2: you're right when you said the Alliance is like at

1507
01:25:49,560 --> 01:25:52,200
Speaker 2: the point where it was seamless, it was worth you know, incredibly,

1508
01:25:52,439 --> 01:25:54,880
Speaker 2: but it was it was ours basically, like we paid

1509
01:25:54,960 --> 01:25:55,519
Speaker 2: for everything.

1510
01:25:55,640 --> 01:25:57,640
Speaker 1: Well, but I've sort of viewed it that way, you know,

1511
01:25:58,479 --> 01:26:01,840
Speaker 1: you know, it's hard to tell the average American like, no, no, no, no, no,

1512
01:26:03,200 --> 01:26:05,320
Speaker 1: this is this is the Modern's almost what I want

1513
01:26:05,320 --> 01:26:07,719
Speaker 1: to tell Trump, which is, you don't want more land

1514
01:26:07,800 --> 01:26:10,599
Speaker 1: for the United States. We got Europe without actually having

1515
01:26:10,680 --> 01:26:14,800
Speaker 1: to pay solid security benefits, Like we got Europe without

1516
01:26:14,960 --> 01:26:19,240
Speaker 1: actually having the responsibility of governing it. Yeah, isn't that

1517
01:26:19,320 --> 01:26:20,920
Speaker 1: the best of all worlds? I hate to be that

1518
01:26:21,080 --> 01:26:23,760
Speaker 1: crass about it, but but that is one way to

1519
01:26:23,840 --> 01:26:26,400
Speaker 1: think about you know, quote, you know, we it was

1520
01:26:26,439 --> 01:26:27,760
Speaker 1: a new type of imperialism.

1521
01:26:28,600 --> 01:26:32,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean I think yeah, I mean, look,

1522
01:26:32,479 --> 01:26:34,240
Speaker 2: I think if they if they start paying more for

1523
01:26:34,280 --> 01:26:36,439
Speaker 2: their own defense and they become more powerful, they're going

1524
01:26:36,520 --> 01:26:39,720
Speaker 2: to be they're going to be more difficult, right for sure.

1525
01:26:39,760 --> 01:26:42,160
Speaker 1: I mean every you know, when the Germans build a

1526
01:26:42,200 --> 01:26:43,439
Speaker 1: military usually goes really well.

1527
01:26:43,840 --> 01:26:45,640
Speaker 2: But it is, you know, it is a it's a

1528
01:26:45,880 --> 01:26:48,759
Speaker 2: it's quite a moment for Europe. It really is, because

1529
01:26:48,760 --> 01:26:51,880
Speaker 2: when you think, I mean, all these countries after the

1530
01:26:51,920 --> 01:26:54,320
Speaker 2: Second World War, they basically said, okay, like we're done.

1531
01:26:54,479 --> 01:26:57,600
Speaker 2: You know, like fifty million people just died. We're not

1532
01:26:57,720 --> 01:27:02,200
Speaker 2: doing that again. Right. They didn't entirely disarmed, but almost

1533
01:27:02,360 --> 01:27:05,720
Speaker 2: They spend tiny percentages of their GDP on you know,

1534
01:27:05,760 --> 01:27:08,960
Speaker 2: let's let the United States worry about our defense. And

1535
01:27:09,080 --> 01:27:11,960
Speaker 2: Trump has sufficiently like scared the daylights out of them

1536
01:27:13,320 --> 01:27:15,880
Speaker 2: that we're not going to be there. And you know,

1537
01:27:15,960 --> 01:27:18,920
Speaker 2: at the same time that Putin I think has given

1538
01:27:19,040 --> 01:27:22,040
Speaker 2: every indication. I mean, he's practically beat Trump over the

1539
01:27:22,120 --> 01:27:26,120
Speaker 2: head with the idea of I'm not stopping. We want

1540
01:27:26,200 --> 01:27:29,280
Speaker 2: all of Ukraine, right, and if they get all of Ukraine,

1541
01:27:29,280 --> 01:27:30,680
Speaker 2: where are they going to go next? He wants to

1542
01:27:30,760 --> 01:27:33,120
Speaker 2: reconstitute the old Soviet Union and so what does that mean?

1543
01:27:33,200 --> 01:27:35,920
Speaker 2: That means like probably Moldova, and you know, he's already

1544
01:27:35,920 --> 01:27:38,720
Speaker 2: got part of Georgia, and then like maybe the Baltic.

1545
01:27:38,479 --> 01:27:42,560
Speaker 1: States and like and another question I have is, you know,

1546
01:27:42,800 --> 01:27:49,200
Speaker 1: is Donald is Donald Trump willing to accept an Article

1547
01:27:49,280 --> 01:27:53,840
Speaker 1: five request from Lithuania? Well, I think that's that's the

1548
01:27:53,920 --> 01:27:57,680
Speaker 1: sixty four thousand dollars question. I think it helps that

1549
01:27:57,800 --> 01:28:01,679
Speaker 1: there's a brigade I think roughly thirty five hundred American

1550
01:28:01,720 --> 01:28:05,120
Speaker 1: troops in Lithuania and the other Baltic states, and so

1551
01:28:05,280 --> 01:28:06,719
Speaker 1: in a way they're kind of a trick wire.

1552
01:28:06,840 --> 01:28:09,720
Speaker 2: But so if the Russians tried to roll in, but

1553
01:28:09,840 --> 01:28:14,080
Speaker 2: you know, place like Lithuania is so tiny, the Russians

1554
01:28:14,120 --> 01:28:16,479
Speaker 2: would be at the Baltic Sea, you know, by the

1555
01:28:16,600 --> 01:28:18,880
Speaker 2: end of the day, you know, or the next day,

1556
01:28:19,240 --> 01:28:20,760
Speaker 2: and like and then and then it would be like,

1557
01:28:20,920 --> 01:28:23,960
Speaker 2: are we going to go to war to liberate Lithuania,

1558
01:28:24,479 --> 01:28:27,600
Speaker 2: you know, not not just defend it? And and you know,

1559
01:28:27,720 --> 01:28:30,479
Speaker 2: Lithuania is a long way away, and like it's not

1560
01:28:30,600 --> 01:28:32,960
Speaker 2: really connected to the other countries in the alliance or

1561
01:28:33,040 --> 01:28:36,720
Speaker 2: just just kind of barely. And and so those are

1562
01:28:36,800 --> 01:28:39,240
Speaker 2: really hard questions. But I but I think the weird

1563
01:28:39,320 --> 01:28:42,799
Speaker 2: thing about Trump is that again he's like, he's very crude.

1564
01:28:44,120 --> 01:28:45,840
Speaker 2: But I but I think if the net result of

1565
01:28:45,920 --> 01:28:47,800
Speaker 2: this is that the Europeans are going to start paying

1566
01:28:47,880 --> 01:28:50,639
Speaker 2: more and they're going to get serious about defending themselves,

1567
01:28:51,240 --> 01:28:52,880
Speaker 2: then then Trump did a good thing.

1568
01:28:53,600 --> 01:28:55,160
Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, I mean, you know, I

1569
01:28:55,320 --> 01:28:58,120
Speaker 1: was impressed when all those European leaders came with Ilansk

1570
01:29:00,240 --> 01:29:05,240
Speaker 1: because it showed that, wow, Europe's never that united with

1571
01:29:05,360 --> 01:29:05,680
Speaker 1: each other.

1572
01:29:05,920 --> 01:29:06,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1573
01:29:06,720 --> 01:29:09,040
Speaker 1: You had the Prime Minister of Italy who you know,

1574
01:29:09,439 --> 01:29:12,439
Speaker 1: who was not exactly you know, tight with Macrone or

1575
01:29:12,680 --> 01:29:15,920
Speaker 1: you know, and yet they're not even share the same ideology.

1576
01:29:16,000 --> 01:29:17,960
Speaker 1: These days when it comes to migrants of all these things.

1577
01:29:18,760 --> 01:29:22,679
Speaker 1: But they're you know, this defense alliance does seem pretty

1578
01:29:22,760 --> 01:29:25,360
Speaker 1: durable in a way that I don't know if any

1579
01:29:25,400 --> 01:29:27,320
Speaker 1: of us thought that would have been the case even

1580
01:29:27,360 --> 01:29:27,760
Speaker 1: ten years.

1581
01:29:28,200 --> 01:29:30,679
Speaker 2: Well, I think I think Putin has focused their minds.

1582
01:29:31,120 --> 01:29:31,519
Speaker 2: Yeah sure.

1583
01:29:31,640 --> 01:29:33,519
Speaker 1: Well and you add in Finland and Sweden and you've

1584
01:29:33,560 --> 01:29:35,840
Speaker 1: added a couple of pretty good armies. Right yeah.

1585
01:29:36,320 --> 01:29:37,880
Speaker 2: I mean it's weird when you think about it, like,

1586
01:29:38,160 --> 01:29:40,760
Speaker 2: what a terrible miscalculation Putin mad?

1587
01:29:41,040 --> 01:29:45,800
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I mean huge? Right, yeah, Like.

1588
01:29:45,880 --> 01:29:49,280
Speaker 2: NATO has expanded, NATO's rearming, you know, and you know

1589
01:29:49,400 --> 01:29:51,840
Speaker 2: the troops that it initially invaded, the Russian troops that

1590
01:29:51,920 --> 01:29:55,040
Speaker 2: initially invaded Ukraine. You know, they brought their parade uniforms

1591
01:29:55,080 --> 01:29:58,479
Speaker 2: with them because they were going in for the victory

1592
01:29:58,520 --> 01:30:00,600
Speaker 2: parade like seventy two hours la or you know, and

1593
01:30:00,680 --> 01:30:02,320
Speaker 2: it's like it didn't work out.

1594
01:30:04,439 --> 01:30:06,320
Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here. On more of

1595
01:30:06,400 --> 01:30:09,760
Speaker 1: a person, How did you end up that this was

1596
01:30:09,800 --> 01:30:12,439
Speaker 1: your beat? You know? You just sort of you know,

1597
01:30:12,680 --> 01:30:14,680
Speaker 1: like it I've always been it. It's like, how did

1598
01:30:14,760 --> 01:30:17,400
Speaker 1: you end up like as you're this guy and I

1599
01:30:17,479 --> 01:30:23,439
Speaker 1: say this with utmost respect, there's really no peer. I'm

1600
01:30:23,479 --> 01:30:26,400
Speaker 1: guessing you didn't set out to be you know, sort

1601
01:30:26,439 --> 01:30:28,880
Speaker 1: of this was going to be your beat, and you

1602
01:30:29,040 --> 01:30:33,120
Speaker 1: have this incredible beat that that that I wish we

1603
01:30:33,160 --> 01:30:35,400
Speaker 1: would have if it was gone type of mindset. How'd

1604
01:30:35,439 --> 01:30:37,560
Speaker 1: you get there? You know?

1605
01:30:38,000 --> 01:30:40,240
Speaker 2: It was like one thing led to another. You know,

1606
01:30:40,360 --> 01:30:43,760
Speaker 2: I covered I started as like a police reporter for

1607
01:30:43,880 --> 01:30:47,800
Speaker 2: the Miami Herald in West Palm Beach. Uh and that

1608
01:30:47,920 --> 01:30:51,320
Speaker 2: was that was a fun job. And I covered the

1609
01:30:51,360 --> 01:30:55,160
Speaker 2: County Commission in Miami, and and then and then I

1610
01:30:55,280 --> 01:30:57,040
Speaker 2: you know, I I one thing led to another. But

1611
01:30:57,160 --> 01:31:00,960
Speaker 2: basically I never set out to do it. And I

1612
01:31:01,080 --> 01:31:03,240
Speaker 2: and I and I should say, I like, I've done

1613
01:31:03,280 --> 01:31:06,719
Speaker 2: a lot of crazy stuff, but I haven't done anything

1614
01:31:06,840 --> 01:31:11,400
Speaker 2: really crazy for some time. Uh not not really since

1615
01:31:12,040 --> 01:31:14,880
Speaker 2: uh not for more than a decade, like really really

1616
01:31:15,080 --> 01:31:16,320
Speaker 2: lunatic like I used to do.

1617
01:31:16,960 --> 01:31:18,120
Speaker 1: And I think the last thing I.

1618
01:31:18,160 --> 01:31:20,639
Speaker 2: Did go into war zones. Maybe with that, yeah, well

1619
01:31:21,360 --> 01:31:23,720
Speaker 2: like that, well you know, I've kind of learned how

1620
01:31:23,760 --> 01:31:25,640
Speaker 2: to do them in a way that's pretty safe. Like

1621
01:31:25,920 --> 01:31:27,800
Speaker 2: you know, I was in Ukraine, but I didn't go

1622
01:31:27,840 --> 01:31:31,320
Speaker 2: to the front line in Ukraine, for instance. But but

1623
01:31:32,080 --> 01:31:35,280
Speaker 2: but I mean the last I've had more close calls

1624
01:31:35,320 --> 01:31:40,639
Speaker 2: than I deserve, you know, way more than nine lives.

1625
01:31:41,520 --> 01:31:45,640
Speaker 2: And I did. I did have a couple of realizations.

1626
01:31:46,520 --> 01:31:48,760
Speaker 2: Again this is about a decade ago. There was one

1627
01:31:48,800 --> 01:31:52,120
Speaker 2: in particular in Afghanistan where I thought like, oh my God,

1628
01:31:52,240 --> 01:31:56,400
Speaker 2: like what are you doing? And you know, because being

1629
01:31:56,400 --> 01:31:58,680
Speaker 2: in a war zone like that, anyone will tell you

1630
01:31:59,560 --> 01:32:02,240
Speaker 2: it's it's like playing poker, and like if you stay

1631
01:32:02,280 --> 01:32:06,320
Speaker 2: at the table long enough, you're going to lose. You know,

1632
01:32:06,760 --> 01:32:08,560
Speaker 2: like cards are going to come up bad for you.

1633
01:32:08,760 --> 01:32:12,439
Speaker 2: So I so I just sort of cashed most of that,

1634
01:32:12,800 --> 01:32:14,920
Speaker 2: most of that. But to answer your question, I had

1635
01:32:14,960 --> 01:32:17,720
Speaker 2: no idea that I would end up running around the

1636
01:32:17,760 --> 01:32:18,519
Speaker 2: world in this way.

1637
01:32:18,680 --> 01:32:20,880
Speaker 1: Who was the first war that you covered?

1638
01:32:21,680 --> 01:32:23,800
Speaker 2: God, that's a really good question, you know. I got

1639
01:32:24,360 --> 01:32:28,360
Speaker 2: I was living in India for the La Times in

1640
01:32:28,400 --> 01:32:31,400
Speaker 2: the late nineteen nineties, and this was kind of how

1641
01:32:31,439 --> 01:32:35,559
Speaker 2: I got started because it was I went, I got

1642
01:32:35,600 --> 01:32:37,479
Speaker 2: a visa to go to Afghanistan and it was in

1643
01:32:37,520 --> 01:32:40,200
Speaker 2: the late nineteen nineties, so it was the first Taliban government.

1644
01:32:41,160 --> 01:32:43,400
Speaker 2: The first thing I did. The first morning I got there,

1645
01:32:43,960 --> 01:32:45,920
Speaker 2: it was a Friday morning, and that's when they do

1646
01:32:46,040 --> 01:32:51,599
Speaker 2: public executions and amputations, and I went to the Cobbin

1647
01:32:51,680 --> 01:32:54,400
Speaker 2: Sports Stadium and I watched an execution and an amputation

1648
01:32:55,080 --> 01:32:57,160
Speaker 2: as they were reading sports stadium.

1649
01:32:57,240 --> 01:32:57,760
Speaker 1: Think about that.

1650
01:32:58,360 --> 01:33:02,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I was a special guest. I mean

1651
01:33:02,320 --> 01:33:05,640
Speaker 2: they were very pleased to have me. And yeah, that

1652
01:33:05,760 --> 01:33:08,400
Speaker 2: was that was really something. And there was a civil

1653
01:33:08,439 --> 01:33:10,719
Speaker 2: war going on inside the country at the time, because

1654
01:33:10,840 --> 01:33:12,200
Speaker 2: you know, there was a big part of the country

1655
01:33:12,240 --> 01:33:13,559
Speaker 2: that didn't want to be part of the Taliban.

1656
01:33:13,680 --> 01:33:15,640
Speaker 1: But did we know that would have been there? Was

1657
01:33:16,439 --> 01:33:20,680
Speaker 1: there yet or no, it was did we know Ben

1658
01:33:20,760 --> 01:33:22,840
Speaker 1: Laden was in Afghanistan?

1659
01:33:22,920 --> 01:33:25,840
Speaker 2: Oh my god, I mean it was all you know,

1660
01:33:25,880 --> 01:33:27,080
Speaker 2: if I could do it all again, I'd do it

1661
01:33:27,200 --> 01:33:31,240
Speaker 2: very differently. But I remember, I remember, and that this

1662
01:33:31,400 --> 01:33:33,320
Speaker 2: is the late nineteen nineties, so it was a few

1663
01:33:33,400 --> 01:33:37,519
Speaker 2: years before nine to eleven. Right, It was all over town.

1664
01:33:37,880 --> 01:33:41,960
Speaker 2: You know, they said, look, if you go, I'm not kidding.

1665
01:33:41,960 --> 01:33:43,760
Speaker 2: There used to be a volleyball game that they would

1666
01:33:43,800 --> 01:33:46,400
Speaker 2: all play. And they'd say, look that Jihads all play

1667
01:33:46,479 --> 01:33:49,920
Speaker 2: Ben Laden. They all played volleyball outside of town. And

1668
01:33:50,000 --> 01:33:51,560
Speaker 2: those are the guys, you know, they fought against the

1669
01:33:51,640 --> 01:33:53,519
Speaker 2: Russians when the Russians are here, but they never went

1670
01:33:53,600 --> 01:33:56,479
Speaker 2: home and they all speak Arabic. Don't let them see

1671
01:33:56,520 --> 01:34:00,360
Speaker 2: you they see a Western or they're going to go easy.

1672
01:34:02,000 --> 01:34:04,519
Speaker 2: But everybody kind of knew that we're there. There were

1673
01:34:04,600 --> 01:34:06,519
Speaker 2: training camps that were there. I mean those are been

1674
01:34:06,600 --> 01:34:09,800
Speaker 2: Laden's training camps. So it was all kind of there,

1675
01:34:09,840 --> 01:34:11,519
Speaker 2: and it was sort of below the surface and you

1676
01:34:11,560 --> 01:34:14,000
Speaker 2: could kind of see it, but it was very difficult

1677
01:34:14,040 --> 01:34:15,680
Speaker 2: to kind of figure out what it meant, you know.

1678
01:34:16,240 --> 01:34:18,240
Speaker 2: I mean when nine to eleven happened, I knew immediately.

1679
01:34:18,280 --> 01:34:20,080
Speaker 2: I was like, oh god, you know, I just watched

1680
01:34:20,160 --> 01:34:22,680
Speaker 2: all that. You saw it, right, it was like and

1681
01:34:22,760 --> 01:34:26,800
Speaker 2: that I assumed it made you jump right into that. Well. No,

1682
01:34:26,960 --> 01:34:28,920
Speaker 2: I mean I was covering the Bronx for the New

1683
01:34:29,000 --> 01:34:32,519
Speaker 2: York Times, and I was an absolutely failed Bronx reporter.

1684
01:34:32,640 --> 01:34:35,080
Speaker 2: But the yeah, somebody came up and tapped me on

1685
01:34:35,120 --> 01:34:38,280
Speaker 2: the shoulder and said, haven't you been to Afghanistan? And

1686
01:34:38,400 --> 01:34:39,840
Speaker 2: like I was like the only person in the news

1687
01:34:39,880 --> 01:34:42,200
Speaker 2: and had been there, and I said, yes, yeah, I've

1688
01:34:42,200 --> 01:34:43,880
Speaker 2: been five times. And so they put me on a

1689
01:34:43,920 --> 01:34:47,360
Speaker 2: plane and kind of, you know, uh, the rest is history. Yeah, yeah,

1690
01:34:49,120 --> 01:34:52,160
Speaker 2: how do you say that? You've cast your chips. But

1691
01:34:52,800 --> 01:34:57,800
Speaker 2: every war correspondent I know has this. The adrenaline is there,

1692
01:34:57,880 --> 01:35:04,160
Speaker 2: It's a dopamine. How have you replaced it? Well, I

1693
01:35:04,680 --> 01:35:09,280
Speaker 2: think I've successfully weaned myself from from all from all that,

1694
01:35:09,640 --> 01:35:13,519
Speaker 2: from from getting because the like I never really people

1695
01:35:13,640 --> 01:35:15,519
Speaker 2: have asked me many times, they say, like, do you

1696
01:35:15,640 --> 01:35:17,759
Speaker 2: do you get Are you addicted to violence?

1697
01:35:17,840 --> 01:35:18,000
Speaker 4: You know?

1698
01:35:19,000 --> 01:35:21,240
Speaker 1: No, like, no way, no.

1699
01:35:21,439 --> 01:35:23,479
Speaker 2: It's scary as hell to be out there, and I

1700
01:35:23,520 --> 01:35:25,160
Speaker 2: don't want to get killed, and I don't like to

1701
01:35:25,400 --> 01:35:28,760
Speaker 2: play those kinds of games. But what what you do

1702
01:35:28,920 --> 01:35:32,479
Speaker 2: get kind of addicted to a bit is is kind

1703
01:35:32,520 --> 01:35:35,720
Speaker 2: of the largeness of it, because you know, to be

1704
01:35:35,800 --> 01:35:37,400
Speaker 2: in the middle of a war, wars are very big

1705
01:35:37,560 --> 01:35:42,040
Speaker 2: things and and people are fighting and dying and putting

1706
01:35:42,040 --> 01:35:44,040
Speaker 2: their lives in the line, and and you know, in

1707
01:35:44,080 --> 01:35:47,959
Speaker 2: a place like a rock I watched a whole society

1708
01:35:48,040 --> 01:35:50,640
Speaker 2: and disintegrate like in front of my eyes. And I,

1709
01:35:50,800 --> 01:35:52,599
Speaker 2: you know, I knew a Rockies, I was friends with them,

1710
01:35:52,640 --> 01:35:55,160
Speaker 2: and I saw this kind of happening, and those are

1711
01:35:55,600 --> 01:35:58,080
Speaker 2: you know, you feel that the continental plates are like

1712
01:35:58,240 --> 01:36:02,280
Speaker 2: literally shifting in front of you, and history is kind

1713
01:36:02,320 --> 01:36:05,360
Speaker 2: of unfolding in front of you. And that's that is

1714
01:36:05,600 --> 01:36:08,000
Speaker 2: kind of addictive, you know that. That's uh, that's like

1715
01:36:08,120 --> 01:36:11,600
Speaker 2: breathing pure oxygen. It's extraordinary, you know, it's amazing, and

1716
01:36:11,800 --> 01:36:14,120
Speaker 2: I'm lucky to have survived a lot of those things.

1717
01:36:15,400 --> 01:36:18,040
Speaker 2: But that that's that's the allure. It's not so much

1718
01:36:18,080 --> 01:36:19,439
Speaker 2: the violence as the largeness.

1719
01:36:20,160 --> 01:36:22,400
Speaker 1: Well then you get at the and that's it makes us.

1720
01:36:22,560 --> 01:36:25,519
Speaker 1: You know, I've I've always felt too detached from it,

1721
01:36:26,280 --> 01:36:28,920
Speaker 1: you know, are I was covering the political implications, the

1722
01:36:29,000 --> 01:36:31,840
Speaker 1: policy implications, and these are very but not to be

1723
01:36:31,960 --> 01:36:33,600
Speaker 1: on the front lines. I always felt like I was

1724
01:36:33,640 --> 01:36:37,000
Speaker 1: missing something and it probably made it meaning that there

1725
01:36:37,040 --> 01:36:39,080
Speaker 1: were questions I wasn't asking that I would know to

1726
01:36:39,160 --> 01:36:41,640
Speaker 1: ask if I were there, right like that to me,

1727
01:36:41,880 --> 01:36:43,240
Speaker 1: that's irreplaceable, right.

1728
01:36:43,800 --> 01:36:47,680
Speaker 2: Well, yes and no, because I would I felt the

1729
01:36:47,720 --> 01:36:49,639
Speaker 2: same way being.

1730
01:36:49,520 --> 01:36:51,720
Speaker 1: Down there in the ground going the other way, going out,

1731
01:36:52,040 --> 01:36:54,080
Speaker 1: like what are they talking about? You know, what?

1732
01:36:54,240 --> 01:36:57,080
Speaker 2: What are they going to do next? And so it's

1733
01:36:57,120 --> 01:36:59,120
Speaker 2: hard to it's hard to take it all in. So

1734
01:36:59,400 --> 01:37:01,439
Speaker 2: again it's if it's a big, big thing like that,

1735
01:37:01,800 --> 01:37:05,320
Speaker 2: and if you can say the same in Ukraine today, Yeah,

1736
01:37:05,439 --> 01:37:07,559
Speaker 2: it's it starts in Washington and goes all the way

1737
01:37:07,600 --> 01:37:08,240
Speaker 2: down to the ground.

1738
01:37:08,800 --> 01:37:12,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, Dexter Man, this is uh, this was this

1739
01:37:12,640 --> 01:37:15,360
Speaker 1: was fantastic. Like I said, I'd love reading your stuff.

1740
01:37:15,560 --> 01:37:17,840
Speaker 1: I know you think you right, you know that they're

1741
01:37:17,880 --> 01:37:20,719
Speaker 1: too long, But the New Yorkers has pretty good editors.

1742
01:37:20,760 --> 01:37:23,040
Speaker 1: They would they would tell you if it wasn't getting

1743
01:37:23,080 --> 01:37:27,120
Speaker 1: read along. Yeah, they would tell you if it wasn't

1744
01:37:27,160 --> 01:37:29,439
Speaker 1: getting read. And you know the way New Yorkers subscribers are,

1745
01:37:29,800 --> 01:37:31,280
Speaker 1: they read all the way to the end and they

1746
01:37:31,360 --> 01:37:32,519
Speaker 1: find the grammatical errors.

1747
01:37:33,640 --> 01:37:36,920
Speaker 2: Yes, weird than most people. Well, well, Chuck, thank you

1748
01:37:37,000 --> 01:37:38,320
Speaker 2: so much for having me Hi brother.

1749
01:37:47,240 --> 01:37:51,240
Speaker 1: All right, I know that I am both better informed

1750
01:37:51,360 --> 01:37:54,360
Speaker 1: thanks to Dexter folcons and really pissed off at all

1751
01:37:54,400 --> 01:37:58,559
Speaker 1: this wasted money at the Pentagon. But I digress. Let's

1752
01:37:58,640 --> 01:38:05,760
Speaker 1: do a little lass Chuck ass Chuck, all right. First

1753
01:38:05,840 --> 01:38:08,080
Speaker 1: question comes from Casey. Mister Todd, big fan of the

1754
01:38:08,120 --> 01:38:11,320
Speaker 1: show and have followed closely since inception. Thank you and

1755
01:38:11,760 --> 01:38:13,640
Speaker 1: thank you and to your production team for all you do.

1756
01:38:13,800 --> 01:38:16,160
Speaker 1: All right, we all appreciate the shoutouts. There was a

1757
01:38:16,240 --> 01:38:18,560
Speaker 1: recent question on an episode regarding VP choice for the

1758
01:38:18,600 --> 01:38:21,840
Speaker 1: two thousand election. I became a politics election junkie during

1759
01:38:21,880 --> 01:38:25,439
Speaker 1: that election. I love campaign politics books that provide insider

1760
01:38:25,520 --> 01:38:28,439
Speaker 1: behind the scenes looks. Not unlike your novel about President

1761
01:38:28,479 --> 01:38:31,680
Speaker 1: Obama Well won a novel, but I yes. Do you

1762
01:38:31,720 --> 01:38:33,800
Speaker 1: have any good suggestions about books surrounding or covering the

1763
01:38:33,800 --> 01:38:36,680
Speaker 1: era leading up to, during, and slightly after the two

1764
01:38:36,680 --> 01:38:39,600
Speaker 1: thousand election other than your former colleague Steve Karnaki's I

1765
01:38:39,720 --> 01:38:42,439
Speaker 1: was going to suggest the Steve Karnaky book. Thanks for

1766
01:38:42,479 --> 01:38:44,160
Speaker 1: the good work, and I look forward to remaining a

1767
01:38:44,240 --> 01:38:48,960
Speaker 1: consistent consumer. Well, look, there were a whole bunch of

1768
01:38:49,080 --> 01:38:52,760
Speaker 1: quickie books written right around the two thousand election. My

1769
01:38:54,360 --> 01:38:57,280
Speaker 1: friend Jake Tapper wrote one, but it was really very

1770
01:38:57,400 --> 01:39:02,360
Speaker 1: focused on the recounting itself, right, And I think, you know,

1771
01:39:02,439 --> 01:39:06,280
Speaker 1: I don't know quite if that's you know, if you

1772
01:39:06,640 --> 01:39:11,240
Speaker 1: are looking at that, it's funny you talk about that

1773
01:39:11,479 --> 01:39:15,320
Speaker 1: sort of era of politics. I do think Bill Clinton's

1774
01:39:15,560 --> 01:39:21,479
Speaker 1: book by John Harris, that's probably as that. That's a

1775
01:39:21,560 --> 01:39:25,120
Speaker 1: good Clinton biography that I do think at least gives

1776
01:39:25,160 --> 01:39:29,760
Speaker 1: you some insight on that era. I think his is

1777
01:39:29,800 --> 01:39:34,479
Speaker 1: better to understand that era than that David Marinis Clinton book,

1778
01:39:34,840 --> 01:39:36,800
Speaker 1: which is more about Clinton, right, and the sort of

1779
01:39:37,120 --> 01:39:40,760
Speaker 1: like what makes him tick. I certainly think it's that's

1780
01:39:40,800 --> 01:39:44,439
Speaker 1: the better Clinton biography, but I do think Harris's book

1781
01:39:44,600 --> 01:39:52,479
Speaker 1: captures the era quite well. You know, we just lost

1782
01:39:52,600 --> 01:39:56,439
Speaker 1: Jewles Witcover. Now you ask who the hell is Jewles Witcover. Well,

1783
01:39:56,800 --> 01:40:00,600
Speaker 1: when I was first growing up, I used to obsessively

1784
01:40:00,720 --> 01:40:03,960
Speaker 1: read a I used to watch the McLoughlin group. There

1785
01:40:04,000 --> 01:40:05,840
Speaker 1: was this guy named Jack Jermond on there, and he

1786
01:40:05,960 --> 01:40:10,000
Speaker 1: was always one of h He was this big, sort

1787
01:40:10,000 --> 01:40:13,120
Speaker 1: of heavy set guy who was He wrote his memoir

1788
01:40:13,240 --> 01:40:14,720
Speaker 1: was called Fat Guy in the Middle Seat. It was

1789
01:40:14,760 --> 01:40:17,720
Speaker 1: just such a great name for a memoir. He was

1790
01:40:17,720 --> 01:40:21,800
Speaker 1: a big horse racing fan. Toward the later part of

1791
01:40:21,880 --> 01:40:23,880
Speaker 1: life became more liberal. I don't know if he was

1792
01:40:23,960 --> 01:40:27,200
Speaker 1: really just a reporter's reporter, but eventually would sort of shows,

1793
01:40:27,960 --> 01:40:30,280
Speaker 1: especially on that show right where he had Buchanan and

1794
01:40:30,920 --> 01:40:34,519
Speaker 1: Novak and Bob Novak and McLoughlin, who are all sort

1795
01:40:34,520 --> 01:40:38,519
Speaker 1: of stage right. Elizabeth Alex, I mean Eleanor Cliff was

1796
01:40:38,560 --> 01:40:41,479
Speaker 1: definitely stage left. Fred Barnes was stage right back then.

1797
01:40:41,560 --> 01:40:43,960
Speaker 1: So Jerman sort of by default came across of stage

1798
01:40:44,040 --> 01:40:47,360
Speaker 1: left sometimes. But he had a writing partner named Jules

1799
01:40:47,400 --> 01:40:50,680
Speaker 1: Widcover and they were old Washington Star correspondents back when

1800
01:40:50,960 --> 01:40:54,640
Speaker 1: Washington was a tremendous two newspaper town. They went to

1801
01:40:54,720 --> 01:40:57,920
Speaker 1: funked and all those great Washington Star reporters basically went

1802
01:40:58,000 --> 01:41:01,479
Speaker 1: to one of three places, The Washington Post, the New

1803
01:41:01,560 --> 01:41:04,280
Speaker 1: York Times, or the Baltimore Sun. And these guys were

1804
01:41:04,320 --> 01:41:07,439
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Sun guys, and they Jerman and Wickcover's column

1805
01:41:07,520 --> 01:41:10,960
Speaker 1: was just a political junkie stream. Well, every presidential election

1806
01:41:11,160 --> 01:41:14,000
Speaker 1: for about I want to say, they've done six. They

1807
01:41:14,040 --> 01:41:16,080
Speaker 1: did six or eighty of these books that basically would

1808
01:41:16,080 --> 01:41:18,760
Speaker 1: do the quickie what happened, and it would be a

1809
01:41:18,840 --> 01:41:22,320
Speaker 1: bit of a chronicle, you know, chronology report of each campaign.

1810
01:41:22,880 --> 01:41:24,840
Speaker 1: But you know, they did one for ninety two, they

1811
01:41:24,880 --> 01:41:26,799
Speaker 1: did one for ninety six, They had one for two thousand,

1812
01:41:26,840 --> 01:41:32,080
Speaker 1: I believe, and one for four. They're good, they're they're

1813
01:41:32,080 --> 01:41:34,559
Speaker 1: a little formulaic. I say that as a compliment. They're

1814
01:41:34,600 --> 01:41:37,240
Speaker 1: meant to be formulaic, right, They're not. They're they're not

1815
01:41:37,400 --> 01:41:40,360
Speaker 1: saying they're you know that. You know, it's like getting

1816
01:41:40,400 --> 01:41:42,360
Speaker 1: the Almanac of American Politics going. Who said this was

1817
01:41:42,400 --> 01:41:44,880
Speaker 1: gonna be a reference book? What the algukes fact? Right?

1818
01:41:45,439 --> 01:41:47,840
Speaker 1: You know they've done it was a series of these

1819
01:41:48,080 --> 01:41:53,519
Speaker 1: and it and it has some good insider stuff. I'd

1820
01:41:53,560 --> 01:41:56,719
Speaker 1: actually go to there because you're right. The two thousand election,

1821
01:41:56,880 --> 01:41:59,240
Speaker 1: you know, it was the weirdest election in that nobody

1822
01:41:59,320 --> 01:42:03,040
Speaker 1: covered the camp but everybody covered the recount. Nobody was

1823
01:42:03,080 --> 01:42:05,280
Speaker 1: well sourced for the campaign, but everybody was well sourced

1824
01:42:05,320 --> 01:42:08,080
Speaker 1: for the recount. Shoot. I've done a recount retrospective if

1825
01:42:08,120 --> 01:42:10,160
Speaker 1: you go back. I think it's lived somewhere on the internet.

1826
01:42:10,240 --> 01:42:13,160
Speaker 1: I did something. I did an episodic podcast series called

1827
01:42:13,160 --> 01:42:15,880
Speaker 1: Florida Florida Florida, where I had interviews with now the

1828
01:42:15,960 --> 01:42:19,920
Speaker 1: late Joe Lieberman, I had interviews with Ted Cruz, Bill Daily,

1829
01:42:20,080 --> 01:42:22,879
Speaker 1: all the players from the recount. We sort of relived

1830
01:42:22,960 --> 01:42:25,519
Speaker 1: the recount, if you will. But that was the problem

1831
01:42:25,600 --> 01:42:30,760
Speaker 1: with the two thousand election. It was always always the

1832
01:42:30,880 --> 01:42:33,599
Speaker 1: most interesting part was the day after the election. Right,

1833
01:42:34,160 --> 01:42:37,360
Speaker 1: The campaign itself was not that interesting, which maybe why

1834
01:42:37,400 --> 01:42:40,400
Speaker 1: there were not as many books written about it. A

1835
01:42:40,400 --> 01:42:41,960
Speaker 1: whole bunch of things about the recount that was it.

1836
01:42:43,400 --> 01:42:46,160
Speaker 1: Then he had nine to eleven, which then I think

1837
01:42:46,200 --> 01:42:51,439
Speaker 1: shortchanged the four political book world because everything was sort

1838
01:42:51,439 --> 01:42:56,240
Speaker 1: of more focused on counter terrorism the threat of Osama

1839
01:42:56,280 --> 01:42:59,040
Speaker 1: bin Laden, the threat of al Qaeda terrorism on the

1840
01:42:59,120 --> 01:43:04,360
Speaker 1: short right, it was so the appetite for those political

1841
01:43:04,439 --> 01:43:10,360
Speaker 1: junkie books was was at a low and four right.

1842
01:43:10,520 --> 01:43:13,360
Speaker 1: I benefited obviously from from new interest, renewed interest with

1843
01:43:13,439 --> 01:43:16,120
Speaker 1: Obama and eight a ton of books. I did two

1844
01:43:16,439 --> 01:43:18,560
Speaker 1: in the Obama era, one right after the election, my

1845
01:43:18,720 --> 01:43:21,160
Speaker 1: version of a quickie type of thing, of more of

1846
01:43:21,240 --> 01:43:23,840
Speaker 1: a of a what's going on with the electorate, what happened,

1847
01:43:24,800 --> 01:43:28,760
Speaker 1: So it was like quasi reference, you know, quasi analysis.

1848
01:43:29,240 --> 01:43:31,880
Speaker 1: And then the book about the first six years of

1849
01:43:31,880 --> 01:43:35,920
Speaker 1: the Obama presidency that you referenced in there. But it's

1850
01:43:37,400 --> 01:43:40,439
Speaker 1: because we we literally Jules wi Kober passed away about

1851
01:43:40,520 --> 01:43:42,880
Speaker 1: about a week or so ago, and he was like

1852
01:43:43,000 --> 01:43:47,240
Speaker 1: ninety seven ninety eight. God bless him. I want to say,

1853
01:43:47,280 --> 01:43:50,200
Speaker 1: I think I saw him at a political convention in sixteen,

1854
01:43:50,360 --> 01:43:52,679
Speaker 1: like he was still going there the last up until

1855
01:43:52,680 --> 01:43:56,760
Speaker 1: the last few years of his life. But for the

1856
01:43:56,840 --> 01:43:59,600
Speaker 1: type of stuff you're looking for, you'll enjoy it. And

1857
01:43:59,680 --> 01:44:01,880
Speaker 1: by the way, way you want to speaking of that era,

1858
01:44:03,600 --> 01:44:05,400
Speaker 1: if you want to have a fun, if you if

1859
01:44:05,439 --> 01:44:09,120
Speaker 1: you if that era interests you, which means the eighties,

1860
01:44:09,200 --> 01:44:11,120
Speaker 1: probably due to a little bit in the politics of

1861
01:44:11,160 --> 01:44:15,000
Speaker 1: the seventies and eighties and the nineties. Bob Novak's memoir.

1862
01:44:16,640 --> 01:44:21,439
Speaker 1: It's long, but extraordinarily readable. It's written like a gossip column.

1863
01:44:23,920 --> 01:44:27,840
Speaker 1: It's Scott, it's you know, it's If you're looking for

1864
01:44:27,920 --> 01:44:31,680
Speaker 1: that kind of junkie tidbit stuff, go check it out.

1865
01:44:31,840 --> 01:44:36,240
Speaker 1: You'll enjoy it. Again. It's pretty thick. But if you're

1866
01:44:36,280 --> 01:44:38,479
Speaker 1: telling me what you're telling me, if you enjoyed Kunakty's book,

1867
01:44:38,600 --> 01:44:42,280
Speaker 1: you'll enjoy this book. I promise you, all right. Next

1868
01:44:42,360 --> 01:44:46,240
Speaker 1: question comes from Dandy Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. It says, never sent

1869
01:44:46,280 --> 01:44:47,720
Speaker 1: you an email before, but wanted to reach out and

1870
01:44:47,800 --> 01:44:50,240
Speaker 1: let you know that the Dumor Smith interview was excellent. Well,

1871
01:44:50,280 --> 01:44:52,240
Speaker 1: thank you took me inside of a world I knew existed,

1872
01:44:52,439 --> 01:44:55,680
Speaker 1: but never imagine the sporto political drama involved, damn and

1873
01:44:55,760 --> 01:44:57,840
Speaker 1: form of be and entertaining, stay strong and keep talking.

1874
01:44:58,000 --> 01:45:01,320
Speaker 1: You are heard with appreciation. Well that's very nice to hear. Look,

1875
01:45:02,080 --> 01:45:05,400
Speaker 1: I don't want to just be political guy that always

1876
01:45:05,439 --> 01:45:08,479
Speaker 1: does the same. You know, I've always said, Look, there's

1877
01:45:08,479 --> 01:45:11,720
Speaker 1: politics and everything in life. Number one. In fact, in

1878
01:45:11,800 --> 01:45:16,240
Speaker 1: the pre Trump World. I almost wrote a book about

1879
01:45:16,280 --> 01:45:19,080
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, how to use politics to navigate

1880
01:45:19,160 --> 01:45:21,560
Speaker 1: life in some form or another, and then, you know,

1881
01:45:21,680 --> 01:45:23,960
Speaker 1: I talked myself out of it, even though I had

1882
01:45:24,080 --> 01:45:27,960
Speaker 1: some offers to you know, I don't want people to

1883
01:45:28,080 --> 01:45:31,080
Speaker 1: use political tactics to navigate life. Now, that doesn't mean

1884
01:45:31,280 --> 01:45:34,559
Speaker 1: you shouldn't be aware of political tactics because they can

1885
01:45:34,600 --> 01:45:39,240
Speaker 1: be used against you. But I just found myself. I

1886
01:45:39,400 --> 01:45:42,280
Speaker 1: just you know, it's a good column. I don't know

1887
01:45:42,280 --> 01:45:44,320
Speaker 1: if it's a two hundred and fifty word book, but

1888
01:45:44,680 --> 01:45:46,720
Speaker 1: the point is is that I do. That is the

1889
01:45:46,760 --> 01:45:49,840
Speaker 1: goal of this podcast. Hopefully the dexter Focuss thing. Also,

1890
01:45:50,600 --> 01:45:54,080
Speaker 1: when I get a chance, I do want to get

1891
01:45:54,160 --> 01:45:58,080
Speaker 1: into a world. Look, I'm obsessed with space. There's some

1892
01:45:58,200 --> 01:46:01,880
Speaker 1: new technology that's coming about, you know, and there's a debate,

1893
01:46:02,120 --> 01:46:03,960
Speaker 1: you know, should we have a should we put a

1894
01:46:04,000 --> 01:46:05,840
Speaker 1: base on the moon? What does that look like? And

1895
01:46:07,520 --> 01:46:12,280
Speaker 1: let's just say that between that the world of gambling

1896
01:46:12,600 --> 01:46:16,080
Speaker 1: and how we're going to deal with a legal movement

1897
01:46:16,160 --> 01:46:18,599
Speaker 1: and that, you know, there's all sorts of different areas

1898
01:46:18,640 --> 01:46:20,960
Speaker 1: that I hope to bring into this and this is

1899
01:46:21,040 --> 01:46:25,759
Speaker 1: heartening to know that. But but Morris had a political

1900
01:46:25,800 --> 01:46:28,960
Speaker 1: story to tell as you can, as you heard, and yes,

1901
01:46:29,120 --> 01:46:31,439
Speaker 1: I'm glad you got out of it what I thought

1902
01:46:31,680 --> 01:46:33,679
Speaker 1: people could get out of it. So thanks for the note.

1903
01:46:34,479 --> 01:46:37,519
Speaker 1: All right, last question for the day. This one comes

1904
01:46:37,560 --> 01:46:38,280
Speaker 1: from Edward Yo.

1905
01:46:38,880 --> 01:46:39,160
Speaker 2: Chuck.

1906
01:46:39,960 --> 01:46:44,599
Speaker 1: The yo is all caps with an exclamation point. Longtime listener,

1907
01:46:44,640 --> 01:46:47,080
Speaker 1: first time caller. If terrorists are really taxes on citizens

1908
01:46:47,120 --> 01:46:49,439
Speaker 1: imposed by executive fee out instead of Congress, then why

1909
01:46:49,479 --> 01:46:51,639
Speaker 1: isn't anyone rallying around the old cry of no taxation

1910
01:46:51,720 --> 01:46:55,080
Speaker 1: without representation. Actually, I think that is kind of the argument.

1911
01:46:55,160 --> 01:46:57,800
Speaker 1: That's that's winning the day in the courts. For what

1912
01:46:57,880 --> 01:47:00,360
Speaker 1: it's worth. As a history professor prepping for next two

1913
01:47:00,400 --> 01:47:02,800
Speaker 1: hundred and fiftieth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence, I

1914
01:47:02,840 --> 01:47:05,320
Speaker 1: can't help but wonder are we too hypathetic, ambivalent, or

1915
01:47:05,520 --> 01:47:08,360
Speaker 1: just discombobulated to care. Would love to hear your take.

1916
01:47:08,439 --> 01:47:13,200
Speaker 1: Let's go Orange, Syracuse. That is Edward, Hey. I will

1917
01:47:13,240 --> 01:47:18,040
Speaker 1: say this about the Syracuse Orange. You know they dug

1918
01:47:18,080 --> 01:47:20,200
Speaker 1: themselves an early hole, but stayed more competitive in that

1919
01:47:20,280 --> 01:47:24,000
Speaker 1: game against Tennessee. By the way, the worst thing are

1920
01:47:24,000 --> 01:47:26,320
Speaker 1: when two Orange teams go up against each other because

1921
01:47:26,320 --> 01:47:29,200
Speaker 1: the Orange is never aligned. They clash, right, The Syracuse

1922
01:47:29,240 --> 01:47:31,920
Speaker 1: orange is I have to say, I prefer you know,

1923
01:47:31,960 --> 01:47:35,200
Speaker 1: it's got a little reddish hue into it. That Tennessee

1924
01:47:35,240 --> 01:47:40,600
Speaker 1: orange is just too yellow for me. Right, But the

1925
01:47:40,720 --> 01:47:42,840
Speaker 1: clash of the orange is sometimes it's not good for

1926
01:47:42,920 --> 01:47:45,320
Speaker 1: your TV. It's not good for your eyeballs, I swear.

1927
01:47:46,400 --> 01:47:48,479
Speaker 1: But as an acc guy, I wanted I was pulling

1928
01:47:48,520 --> 01:47:53,960
Speaker 1: for the QS to do well there. Look, I think

1929
01:47:54,400 --> 01:47:57,560
Speaker 1: what you're arguing about. I think part of it is

1930
01:47:59,520 --> 01:48:03,240
Speaker 1: it's not yet. We're still in the You realize you're

1931
01:48:03,280 --> 01:48:09,519
Speaker 1: being taxed. Literally, the bill is coming right now, right,

1932
01:48:09,600 --> 01:48:12,600
Speaker 1: we're all starting to see it. You had about a

1933
01:48:12,760 --> 01:48:15,720
Speaker 1: if he started implementing tariffs. Realistically, they started to be

1934
01:48:15,760 --> 01:48:18,960
Speaker 1: implemented in June and July. It's always about a sixty

1935
01:48:19,000 --> 01:48:21,880
Speaker 1: to ninety day lag. He began it in April, but

1936
01:48:21,960 --> 01:48:25,320
Speaker 1: then pulled back. Right, So the point is we hit

1937
01:48:25,360 --> 01:48:28,280
Speaker 1: the you know, it's been late July, early August. You're

1938
01:48:28,280 --> 01:48:30,479
Speaker 1: starting to you start to see the first signs of

1939
01:48:30,960 --> 01:48:34,479
Speaker 1: the tariff impacts at Walmart and some of these places.

1940
01:48:34,520 --> 01:48:37,160
Speaker 1: We're now going to have the deportation tax. What am

1941
01:48:37,200 --> 01:48:40,080
Speaker 1: I talking about there? Well, the price of chicken meatpacking

1942
01:48:40,160 --> 01:48:43,880
Speaker 1: plants can't find people to do those jobs. Are food

1943
01:48:43,960 --> 01:48:47,440
Speaker 1: the cost of food that specifically is tied to the deportation,

1944
01:48:49,000 --> 01:48:53,719
Speaker 1: So I'd call that a deportation tax on that front.

1945
01:48:55,040 --> 01:48:58,560
Speaker 1: So I guess my argument would be, let's see what

1946
01:48:58,680 --> 01:49:02,120
Speaker 1: people think of terrafs and months, and I do think

1947
01:49:02,160 --> 01:49:03,599
Speaker 1: they'll see it as a tax. And I do think

1948
01:49:03,640 --> 01:49:08,160
Speaker 1: the courts are saying, you're right, this is taxation without representation,

1949
01:49:08,840 --> 01:49:14,519
Speaker 1: that this was done unconstitutionally. So I'm counting on it.

1950
01:49:15,160 --> 01:49:17,000
Speaker 1: I'm counting on the Supreme Court to do this because

1951
01:49:17,040 --> 01:49:22,040
Speaker 1: it's and I also believe that Trump will strong arm

1952
01:49:22,120 --> 01:49:24,880
Speaker 1: his party to vote on this and give him the

1953
01:49:24,960 --> 01:49:28,720
Speaker 1: authority straight up. But at least we all get to

1954
01:49:28,760 --> 01:49:30,280
Speaker 1: find out where they stand. I think this is going

1955
01:49:30,320 --> 01:49:33,400
Speaker 1: to be a much harder vote for an individual representative

1956
01:49:33,439 --> 01:49:37,120
Speaker 1: in Congress, particularly Republican who has spent decades preaching that

1957
01:49:37,240 --> 01:49:39,840
Speaker 1: tariffs are taxes. They have to decide are they going

1958
01:49:39,920 --> 01:49:42,920
Speaker 1: to raise every Are they going to raise taxes on

1959
01:49:43,040 --> 01:49:48,559
Speaker 1: every American fifteen percent? That could be the vote they

1960
01:49:48,600 --> 01:49:54,479
Speaker 1: have to cast in Congress. With that, some great questions today,

1961
01:49:54,600 --> 01:49:57,200
Speaker 1: especially the ones that give us compliments, those are our favorite.

1962
01:49:58,080 --> 01:49:59,920
Speaker 1: We'll take your five star reviews when you get a chance.

1963
01:50:00,360 --> 01:50:04,880
Speaker 1: But in all seriousness, it's been great so far and

1964
01:50:05,680 --> 01:50:10,679
Speaker 1: the feedback is always helpful, so we appreciate the constructive

1965
01:50:10,720 --> 01:50:13,560
Speaker 1: criticism as well. We've been trying to respond, give you

1966
01:50:13,640 --> 01:50:17,599
Speaker 1: different ways to consume on your time, at your speed

1967
01:50:18,120 --> 01:50:20,800
Speaker 1: and the way you want it, you know, unlike my

1968
01:50:20,880 --> 01:50:23,439
Speaker 1: pals in Miami at Burger King, have it your way

1969
01:50:23,840 --> 01:50:25,519
Speaker 1: and with that until we upload again.