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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from throwing out so spect

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Speaker 2: we're sitting. It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to winning.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 4: If you want to back, and we are underway. Welcome

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Speaker 4: to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I am

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Speaker 4: your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always.

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Speaker 4: It would be weird to switch it up all of

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Speaker 4: a sudden after like nineteen or twenty weeks, but I

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Speaker 4: am joined by Brandon Anderson of course for some best

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Speaker 4: bets for the Divisional Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs.

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Speaker 4: So let's just dive in right now. I kind of

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Speaker 4: wanted to do a bit of a table setter before

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Speaker 4: we got into all the games. We will go through

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Speaker 4: each of the four games, props in each matchups, all

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Speaker 4: sorts of fun stuff. But so at the moment, Buffalo

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Speaker 4: is the lone team still in the playoffs who were

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Speaker 4: entering the Divisional round who had preseason odds of under

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Speaker 4: twenty to one. Philly's gone, Baltimore, KC, Green Bay, Detroit, Washington.

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Speaker 4: Those are the other teams under to twenty one. This

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Speaker 4: is only the second time in the last fifty years,

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Speaker 4: fifty years, we've had one team or less at under

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Speaker 4: twenty to one from preseason odds in divisional round. The

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Speaker 4: other was twenty nineteen when it was the Chiefs who

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Speaker 4: made it all way to the Super Bowl and won it,

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Speaker 4: who beat San Francisco. So we will see if the

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Speaker 4: Buffalo Bills. Yes, the Buffalo Bills can finally get it done,

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Speaker 4: and history in terms of one year says they will.

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Speaker 4: But I think that is a good table setter in

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Speaker 4: terms of just the teams that have made it here,

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Speaker 4: the teams who we thought would probably make it here

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Speaker 4: who aren't, and kind of the matchups we have because

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Speaker 4: pretty fascinating that you know, Denver the one seed, Seattle

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Speaker 4: the one seed, and you know Seattle does get Sam Francisco,

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Speaker 4: which they're familiar to. But that Buffalo Denver line kind

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Speaker 4: of ping pong back and forth. Interesting stuff. So brandon

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Speaker 4: any thoughts there before we dive in.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if there had been a market for you to

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Speaker 3: bet who will make the Divisional Round, you would be

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Speaker 3: a rich rich man if this was the parlay that

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Speaker 3: you put in before the season.

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Speaker 4: These are not good point.

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Speaker 3: These are not the teams we expected, and frankly especially

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Speaker 3: what's interesting this week to me is these are not

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Speaker 3: the home teams that we expected, even the Bills, who

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Speaker 3: you mentioned on the road this week we got the

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Speaker 3: Rams on the road but favored this week. What's weird

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Speaker 3: to me is we have the best teams by my

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Speaker 3: power ratings. The best teams really are still in the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: They're mostly on the road though this round Seattle the

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Speaker 3: one exception. But to me, we have this round four

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Speaker 3: home games. Obviously, three of the four hosts are not

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Speaker 3: in the top eight of my power ratings, they're the

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Speaker 3: three right outside that. So it sets up for some

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Speaker 3: very interesting matchups where typically this round you get the

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Speaker 3: rest of one seed. Usually for most years we'd have

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Speaker 3: the rested top two seeds. Usually your home teams are big,

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Speaker 3: big favorites, and we're looking at seven point lines, ten

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Speaker 3: point lines, really big spreads, trying to talk yourself into

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Speaker 3: that long number, and a lot of trends telling you

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Speaker 3: really need to do that. Well, a lot different sort

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Speaker 3: of games this year, and a lot more toss up

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Speaker 3: looking stuff, so we will get into the matchup and

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Speaker 3: analysis on each where Normally it's like, oh, you know,

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Speaker 3: last year Washington playing Detroit, It's like, well Washington kind

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Speaker 3: of stinks, Detroit's been killing everyone. What's the case for Washington?

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Speaker 3: All turned out there was a pretty good one. But

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Speaker 3: normally those are the sort of games we get these games.

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Speaker 3: Other than the Seattle game, we're getting a lot of

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Speaker 3: toss up looking games, which is very odd for this year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you're really only saying how can I make the

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Speaker 4: case for San Francisco? Other than that, really take your pick?

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Speaker 4: All right, So, if you'd like to tell some of

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Speaker 4: the bets we're about to discuss, find the quick sliplink

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Speaker 4: in the podcast and video description, or visit actionework dot

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Speaker 4: com slash bet. Now even better, sign up for action Pro.

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Speaker 4: slash Pro. All right, let's roll Buffalo Denver. So, of course,

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Speaker 4: as famously we've been talking about I feel like on

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Speaker 4: the internet for a while now, Buffalo opened this game

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Speaker 4: as a road favorite of about a point point and

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Speaker 4: a half. It is now at as of this recording,

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Speaker 4: Denver minus one and a half total about forty six

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Speaker 4: still in some of those, which is kind of nice.

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Speaker 4: I've seen it coming down a little bit, but I

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Speaker 4: still see some forty six's. I'll just toss it to

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Speaker 4: you for most of these at the top, and then

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Speaker 4: we can kind of get into a conversation what is

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Speaker 4: your table set here? Like? What are you looking at

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Speaker 4: first when you see Buffalo and Denver?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm coming out firing today on the podcast. This

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Speaker 3: is the first game, so I didn't put this at

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Speaker 3: the top for that reason. But Evan, I'm putting the

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Speaker 3: Denver Broncos on fraud Watch, and I guess we've kind

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Speaker 3: of put them on fraud Watch all season as we've

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Speaker 3: talked about them on Sunday Nights, But I think we

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Speaker 3: are thinking about this team all wrong. From week eleven

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Speaker 3: and forward, the Broncos are much better offensively than we

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Speaker 3: collectively are giving them credit for, but also a lot

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Speaker 3: worse defensively. There's a lot of talk right now about Seattle, Houston, Denver,

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Speaker 3: these three teams as juggernaut defense and is there just

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Speaker 3: enough offense. That's really not what Denver's profile has been.

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Speaker 3: And it's both directions. The offense has been a little

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Speaker 3: better than both Seattle and Houston, but the defense has

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Speaker 3: been worse by a lot. So here are the numbers.

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Speaker 3: The pass defense, even once their time came back, has

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Speaker 3: been all over the map. They've had a couple of

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Speaker 3: good weeks, they've had a couple of really bad weeks.

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Speaker 3: They've been down there the eighteenth rank defense by DVA

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Speaker 3: since week eleven to four, not coming week eighteen when

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Speaker 3: they played against the backup. So that's league averaged and

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Speaker 3: if you go first nine games back, nine games, Denver

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Speaker 3: was sixth against the pass, third against the run. That's

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Speaker 3: their profile we think of with Denver first nine games

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Speaker 3: back nine games, thirteenth against the pass, fifteenth against the run.

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Speaker 3: That's an average defense, not a bad one, but it's

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Speaker 3: not this juggernaut defense that we're giving credit for. And

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Speaker 3: if you look back last season, they had the same

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Speaker 3: sort of downturn late in the year week eleven forward,

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Speaker 3: they dropped a fourteenth in DVAA. This was a big

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Speaker 3: point I made in Denver last year in the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: and part of that is that this defense fades facing

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Speaker 3: top offenses. If you look at the last two years,

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Speaker 3: when they face a top twelve offense, Denver allows just

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Speaker 3: under twenty eight points a game against those teams. Now, look,

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Speaker 3: everyone allows more points to better offenses, but not Houston,

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Speaker 3: not Seattle. They're not that sort of defense. By the numbers. Evan. Actually,

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Speaker 3: Buffalo has the better defense in this matchup by DA

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Speaker 3: since week eleven. Now, I'm not gonna go that far.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a little bit crazy, but they're closer

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Speaker 3: than you think, and if they are, then that changes

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Speaker 3: a lot how you think about this one. We've talked

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Speaker 3: about a couple of these other things. Denver has trailed

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Speaker 3: in all but two wins this season. They have a

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Speaker 3: lot of one score wins. If you flip their one

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Speaker 3: score results, which we know historically are pretty coin flippy.

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Speaker 3: Denver will be five and twelve this season, not the

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Speaker 3: one seed, not a playoff team, last in the AFC. Instead,

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Speaker 3: bow and knicks against winning teams that score over seventeen points,

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Speaker 3: one in eight straight up in his career, Sean Payton,

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Speaker 3: for all the rep he has, He's lost four of

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Speaker 3: his last five playoff games. The one win was Matt

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Speaker 3: Nagy and Mitch Trubisky eight to eight in the COVID season.

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Speaker 3: Three losses as home favorites, and here's the last one

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Speaker 3: on fraud Watch. The last two seasons, the Denver Broncos

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Speaker 3: have had eight games against a top ten DVOA team.

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Speaker 3: The Bills are number eight, by the way. In those

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Speaker 3: eight games, Denver is one in seven straight up with

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Speaker 3: a minus eighty three point differential. I'm putting the Denver

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Speaker 3: on fraud Watch right off the bat. I'm curious what

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Speaker 3: you think before I get into the matchups.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think some of those numbers, in

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Speaker 4: terms of their defense, at least recently, is a little surprising.

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Speaker 4: I do think Buffalo is a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: difficult matchup for them, just because of you know, certain

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Speaker 4: usually trying to cover their number one wide receiver, which

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Speaker 4: Buffalo doesn't really have any type of number one wide receiver,

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Speaker 4: Like they're like, you could cover Shakir, but other than that,

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Speaker 4: it's kind of whoever's out there, Josh does his thing.

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Speaker 4: So it's a bit of a different I think defensive

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Speaker 4: philosophy they're gonna have to try to have in this game.

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Speaker 4: So I think off the bat, it's an intriguing matchup

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Speaker 4: just because you can say you like Denver in enough

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Speaker 4: for a number of different areas, but really Buffalo is

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Speaker 4: just Superman. It's like, does he have enough he did

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Speaker 4: last week against Jacksonville this week. You've got a ton

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Speaker 4: of people on this team, kind of like the Jaguars

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Speaker 4: don't have a ton of playoff experience. Yes the team's good,

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Speaker 4: Yes they've performed well, but I think some of that

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Speaker 4: comes into it. So we've been talking fraud watch all

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Speaker 4: year just because Denver kind of fails to cover a

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Speaker 4: lot of their games. I mean, seven and ten against

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Speaker 4: the spread this season, which off of a bye with

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Speaker 4: a seven and ten ATS record really only done I

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Speaker 4: believe the third time since nineteen ninety. So it's just

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Speaker 4: this really really doesn't happen often where you have this

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Speaker 4: team who has been kind of inflated in some of

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Speaker 4: these numbers in this position, and now the number doesn't matter.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you're just asking Denver to win the game,

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Speaker 4: which it kind of puts that other one into perspective.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the last team to walk into the playoffs

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Speaker 4: with that, with that bat of an ATS record with

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Speaker 4: the buye were the Chiefs and they won the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: So I think it really just depends on how you

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Speaker 4: look at it. It's a little dangerous.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely dangerous. And look, you and I have

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Speaker 3: talked about Denver being about Friday all season. A lot

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Speaker 3: of folks have been awaiting all year to fade Denver

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Speaker 3: in this spot as the one seed, as the favorite.

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Speaker 3: But is this the spot to fade them? Buffalo has

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Speaker 3: a ton of injuries. They're down to just whoever they

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Speaker 3: can find off the street at receiver. They're missing some

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Speaker 3: defensive guys put ten, although at Oliver practicing would be

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Speaker 3: a big return for them offset some of those defensive injuries.

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen, he's playing hurt. It seems he's gonna play through,

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Speaker 3: but we saw him hit the medical tent like three

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Speaker 3: times in the first half. Last week, we're talking about

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Speaker 3: Buffalo on the Road not being good. My numbers make

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Speaker 3: Denver minus one. My numbers basically say this line is

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Speaker 3: about what it should be. But then I'm gonna get

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Speaker 3: into the matchup stuff. And you mentioned Josh being Superman.

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Speaker 3: Part of what's made Buffalo interesting this year is that

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Speaker 3: Josh doesn't always have to be Superman. And I think

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Speaker 3: this game, this matchup is the exact sort of game

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Speaker 3: Buffalo is going to transform itself into. Out of the

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Speaker 3: Bills are going to run power run on this Denver defense.

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Speaker 3: Denver's run defense funnels the run inside, but they're only

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Speaker 3: twenty second and EPA p for play outside twenty second

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Speaker 3: inside versus number two outside, so outside runs are more dangerous.

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Speaker 3: It's easier to break, contain, break off a big one.

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Speaker 3: Denver is shutting that down. They're not letting you get outside.

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Speaker 3: But Buffalo not great outside. They're below average EPA for

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Speaker 3: a play, but they're number two inside, so Buffalo wants

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Speaker 3: to hit you up the middle anyway. They want to

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Speaker 3: run up the middle. We know how good Josh Allen is.

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Speaker 3: I think we're going to see the tush push a

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Speaker 3: lot from the Bills in this game, we eliminated the Eagles,

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Speaker 3: but we didn't eliminate the tush push. We just transferred

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Speaker 3: it to another conference. I think the Bills are going

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Speaker 3: to power run. They're going to control the clock. We

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Speaker 3: know Denver wants to bring pressure. Well, the best way

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Speaker 3: to get those pressure guys off the edge up against

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Speaker 3: you is just run right at them, run up the middle, pressure,

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Speaker 3: power run. Denver is only faced all season to one

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Speaker 3: team top quarter of the league in run defense. That

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Speaker 3: was the Colts. Jonathan Taylor ran twenty five times for

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Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty five yards in that game, and

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Speaker 3: the Colts won a little bit fluky, but they did win. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 3: they were in it all the way. So I think

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Speaker 3: Bills can run. And it's not even necessarily Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: MVP game, and I think that helps the case a

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Speaker 3: little bit because he's banged up. This is maybe a

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Speaker 3: James Cook game to have a big one. On the

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Speaker 3: flip side, I think the Bills defense can hang a

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Speaker 3: little bit as well. They've been way better this season

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Speaker 3: against eleven personnel top five there bottom five against other

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Speaker 3: personnels two running backs, two tight ends. Well, Denver doesn't

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Speaker 3: really have other running backs, other tight ends. They play

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Speaker 3: a lot of eleven and also Buffalo, we know how

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Speaker 3: bad they are at run defense. Denver has actually been

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Speaker 3: one of the pass heavier teams in the league, and

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Speaker 3: they prefer lots of short passes. That's the bon Knicks game,

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Speaker 3: that's Sean Payton, short passes all underneath. That's what Buffalo

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Speaker 3: defense against. They limit everything they put the umbrella on,

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Speaker 3: and then their top five VPA per play against the

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Speaker 3: short pass. So Denver, I don't think, and hurt Buffalo's

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Speaker 3: weaknesses as well their run defense. They're worse against wide

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Speaker 3: receiver two on the season, but Buffalo, I think can

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Speaker 3: hang at least a little bit. And then, don't forget

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Speaker 3: we saw this game last year in the playoffs, and

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Speaker 3: of course these teams aren't the same as they were then,

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Speaker 3: but it's worth remembering just how badly that went for Denver.

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Speaker 3: They had the early bomb touchdown, then they give up

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Speaker 3: thirty one straight thirty one to seven. The Bills finished

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Speaker 3: better than ninety fifth percentile EPA and success rate. They

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Speaker 3: doubled up Denver on first downs, they more than doubled

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Speaker 3: in yardage. They had forty two minutes of possession thirty

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Speaker 3: one extra plays in that game, and James Cook ran

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Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty yards for a score in that game,

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Speaker 3: And so I think that's the script here, is Buffalo dominating,

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Speaker 3: winning the way they did last year. Probably a better

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Speaker 3: Denver team and a worse Buffalo team, But thirty one

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Speaker 3: to seven leaves a lot of margin for air there.

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Speaker 3: So you can probably tell the direction I'm heading here

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Speaker 3: in the division around, you fade the big favorites. That's

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Speaker 3: what the trends say. I know you have a lot

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Speaker 3: of those trends in your column saying that. Here are

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Speaker 3: a couple that I had. The one seed after a

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Speaker 3: bye fifteen twenty nine to one ats thirty four percent

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Speaker 3: cover rate, including when that one seed is a six

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Speaker 3: point favorite or anything worse than that, So a short

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Speaker 3: favorite or even underdog, that one seed is only three

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Speaker 3: and ten ATS the last couple decades, it's six and

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Speaker 3: seven straight up. Not a good spot for Denver here,

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Speaker 3: and division around favorites that have won over seventy five

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Speaker 3: percent of their games, like Denver thirty four percent ATS

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Speaker 3: that one you're gonna hear come up in a few

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Speaker 3: of these games here. So at the end of the

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Speaker 3: day I said all the power run stuff, but we

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Speaker 3: haven't said much about the quarterbacks. This is still the

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Speaker 3: best quarterback in the playoffs, and in my opinion, clearly

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Speaker 3: the worst. It's still Josh Allen, that's still Bonnicks. Allan

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Speaker 3: can handle the pressure if he needs to. I'm talking

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Speaker 3: about the pressure from Denver, not the pressure of the

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Speaker 3: big game is going to add to the power run game.

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Speaker 3: I think two McDermott's defense was really good against Jacksonville

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Speaker 3: last week, a tough matchup. I thought he disguised coverage

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Speaker 3: as well. And I think Buffalos gonna play a lot

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Speaker 3: of zone. Bonux has been way worse against Ozone this

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Speaker 3: year and over his career, so that's a big problem too.

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Speaker 3: And here are a couple Josh Allen stats that really

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Speaker 3: hammer home for me. Josh Allen anything under a field

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Speaker 3: goal favorite for his career sixty four percent ats when

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Speaker 3: he's not a big favorite. You just trust Josh told

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Speaker 3: get it done. And then you have this in your column.

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen against an opponent that allows twenty points a

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Speaker 3: game or less in his career twenty nine ten and

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Speaker 3: one ats seventy four percent cover rate, covering by over

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Speaker 3: a touchdown per game, best quarterback in our system, as

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Speaker 3: you noted, better even than Tom Brady, who's second best.

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Speaker 3: There here's how I translate that. I don't care how

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Speaker 3: good your defense is. I'm Josh Allen. We're still gonna

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Speaker 3: score some points. You're holding people under twenty not me.

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Speaker 3: I'm Josh Allen. We're gonna get a few points. And

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Speaker 3: now if you combine those two stats, Josh against the

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Speaker 3: defense that allows twenty points a game, or last when

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Speaker 3: he is under a field goal favorite, listen to this number,

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Speaker 3: nineteen three and one against the spread. He's won fourteen

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Speaker 3: of the last sixteen outright close ears Bills fans. Chiefs

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Speaker 3: loss twice in the playoffs. That's it. So unless you're

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Speaker 3: Mahomes and the Chiefs, that's the only way to beat

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen and the Bills in the spot. And by

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Speaker 3: the way, that trend I just said, that's gonna apply

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Speaker 3: next round against another great defense, and it'll apply against

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Speaker 3: Seattle in the Super Bowl too, So we'll hope for

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Speaker 3: Bills fans. It's a lot of information. Here's my bet

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Speaker 3: Bill's money line minus one, O two or best number

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Speaker 3: you can find. Last year, I was all in Bill's Broncos,

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Speaker 3: we hit all seven and a half all the way

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Speaker 3: up to minus twenty three and a half at five

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Speaker 3: to one. Let's run it back. We're on fraud watch.

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Speaker 3: Here's how we're doing it. Bill's team total over twenty

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Speaker 3: three and a half at DraftKings that has hit nine

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Speaker 3: of the last ten Josh Allen playoff games. He's averaging

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Speaker 3: almost thirty points a game in those. He's hit twenty

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Speaker 3: seven or better in eight of those ten. We'll play

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Speaker 3: twenty seven or better as well at two to one.

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Speaker 3: If you like the Bills to score a lot here

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Speaker 3: and we'll get to Rams Bears later. In between, those

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Speaker 3: two games are two unders. I think two low scoring games,

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Speaker 3: So I like Bills eight to one to be the

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Speaker 3: highest scoring team this weekend. If they go high here

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Speaker 3: and if that cold weather compresses Rams bearries a little bit,

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Speaker 3: the Bills should be alive. And then last al tier

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Speaker 3: got to play the alt lines if Denver can't score either.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo eight of their thirteen wins by a touchdown or

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Speaker 3: batter over half by double digits. Here are the numbers.

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Speaker 3: Bill's minus five and a half plus two twenty five

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Speaker 3: Bills by ten or more plus four fifty bills by

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Speaker 3: seventeen or more plus nine hundred. I'm out on the broncos.

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Speaker 3: I'm in on the bills. And it's not just Josh,

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Speaker 3: it's the power run. Denver's on fraud Watch. We're playing

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Speaker 3: it every way we can.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll give you some updateds percentages right now in

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Speaker 4: terms of the markets that we see, because it's kind

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Speaker 4: of intriguing. So we talked about the basically three point

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Speaker 4: move in Denver's direction, but Buffalo seems to be getting

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Speaker 4: all the actions, so it's a bit of a interesting move. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 4: in terms of Buffalo getting like sixty three percent of

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Speaker 4: the tickets and sixty five percent of the money at

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Speaker 4: the moment. I'll say this to kind of back up

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Speaker 4: your bets because Buffalo tends to score in the playoffs

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Speaker 4: and they do it well. Last five years. There's se

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Speaker 4: in three team total over in those ten playoff games.

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Speaker 4: And you talked about that stat with Josh Allen versus

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Speaker 4: teams allowing under twenty points per game well in that span.

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Speaker 4: So basically, when Allen faces a team on the road

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Speaker 4: allowing under twenty points per game, he is twelve three

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Speaker 4: and one against the spread covering by seven points per game.

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Speaker 4: But to your number, he's averaging twenty six points per

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Speaker 4: game in those games. So basically great defense, he's still

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Speaker 4: putting up points. It doesn't matter. The other one that

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Speaker 4: I thought was kind of intriguing Sean Payton in the

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Speaker 4: playoffs six and twelve first half ats, so his teams

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Speaker 4: have started slow and they just and obviously we've talked

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Speaker 4: about the Josh Allen slow thing, and we've talked about

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Speaker 4: even last week, like the drives weren't great. He puts

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Speaker 4: up I think ten points in the first half. It

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Speaker 4: didn't look amazing, But from Denver's standpoint, like if you

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Speaker 4: start slow in this one, I would be more worried.

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Speaker 4: So that stat was a little alarming to me. But

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Speaker 4: that's what I see here in Buffalo Denver.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with the slow start thing. We've talked

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Speaker 3: about Buffalo slow starts. We've talked about Denver slow starts

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Speaker 3: all year. They've been one of the worst first quarter teams.

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Speaker 3: So I'm really curious if you're a Denver fan, or

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Speaker 3: if you're a Denver better, you need to see this

390
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Speaker 3: two week rest advantage payoff with something new, something different.

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Speaker 3: I'm that first driver too. Those scripted plays have not

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Speaker 3: gone well for Denver. If Denver doesn't score and they're

393
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Speaker 3: opening couple drives and the Bills get a score right away,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna feel really really good about my escalators and

395
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Speaker 3: everything from there, because that is the exact opposite setup

396
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Speaker 3: you want for Denver. You need the Patriots matchup that

397
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Speaker 3: we talked about possibly next round. You need a team

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Speaker 3: on the front foot. Denver wants to be on the

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Speaker 3: front foot the way they have been most of the season.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about either of these teams not playing a

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Speaker 3: lot of competition. Buffalo hasn't really had a lot of

402
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Speaker 3: chances to be far behind and have to figure some

403
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Speaker 3: things out. They've done it. They did it against Baltimore

404
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Speaker 3: and the opener, they had to come back against Jacksonville

405
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Speaker 3: last week. They've come from behind. That's the script Denver

406
00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 3: needs to ask for here. And I would feel better

407
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Speaker 3: about their chances if I thought they can could come

408
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Speaker 3: out early swing. But you're right, the numbers don't look

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Speaker 3: good there, and I don't know, I feel like Buffalo

410
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Speaker 3: could take care of Denver with some ease here if

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00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:09,959
Speaker 3: things go their direction.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a great start. Off to the playoffs

413
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Speaker 4: with this game, because it's going to be fascinating who wins, nonetheless,

414
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Speaker 4: and it'll kind of set the tone for the weekend

415
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Speaker 4: the NFC West Showdown. The thing we just saw San

416
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Speaker 4: Francisco Seattle. You've seen it everywhere. Brock Party never lost

417
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Speaker 4: in Seattle in his career, believe it's four and zero.

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Speaker 4: Things have looked good in that sense. So I'll toss

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Speaker 4: it to you. What is the first thing you looked

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Speaker 4: at when you were trying to because we just handicapped

421
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Speaker 4: this one. We just saw this one a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 4: and you're pretty much looking at the exact same stuff.

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Speaker 4: Was there anything different that you looked at from San

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Speaker 4: Francisco and Seattle?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I started with the rematch for sure. Obviously

426
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Speaker 3: very unusual, in fact, I think historical that we get

427
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Speaker 3: those team's play week one, then Week eighteen to close,

428
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Speaker 3: and now the rematch. First, it's Seattle's last game. Is

429
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Speaker 3: that game that we saw which was two Saturdays ago

430
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Speaker 3: where the Niners around a short week here instead, So

431
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 3: it's a really huge rest advantage for Seattle. Early in

432
00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 3: the week, I thought this line would arise.

433
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 4: It did.

434
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 3: It was below the seven. Now it's above the seven.

435
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 3: I think the line makes sense compared to it closed

436
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 3: two and a half in Seattle, or sorry, two and

437
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 3: a half in San fran that Week eighteen game. Now

438
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 3: you add in the rest advantage and flip to Seattle

439
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 3: home seven and a half, that seems about right. But

440
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 3: it's a touch high for me. I have it just

441
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 3: under seven, even though I'm very high in Seattle. That

442
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 3: game we saw Seattle won thirteen to three. It wasn't

443
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 3: even that close. Three hundred and sixty one yards to

444
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,639
Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy three, twenty three first downs to

445
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: nine nine first downs for the forty nine ers, thirty

446
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 3: six percent success rate, lows points and lowest yards for

447
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,439
Speaker 3: Shanahan since his debut game. Twenty seven percent success on

448
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 3: late downs. That's really shocking for the Niners. There are

449
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 3: two of nine on third down all of two, and

450
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 3: fourth down oh of one. In the red zone. This

451
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 3: is the number one team in the red zone and

452
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,679
Speaker 3: on third down on the season, but Seattle shut it

453
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,160
Speaker 3: down there and they're top two against both of those

454
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 3: areas on the field, and that has been the trend

455
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 3: for the Niners. Is kind of what we saw in

456
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: that game. Since Party returned from injury, eight games now

457
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 3: for the Niners, four of them have been against the

458
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 3: defense twentieth or worse. Those games average almost seventy points

459
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 3: a game in them, and the Niners are scoring a

460
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 3: lot of them. Fifty four percent success rate four other

461
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 3: games not against top defens is just better than twentieth

462
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 3: Sam fran drops from fifty four to forty percent success rate,

463
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 3: and those games are averaging barely thirty points a game,

464
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 3: way down from seventy. So we took this on the

465
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 3: hot Red already on Sunday under forty seven and a half.

466
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 3: There I still see forty five and a half forty five.

467
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 3: I still like the underbest here. I think McDonald's defense

468
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 3: is built for a game like this, and I think

469
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 3: he's built to defend Sam Franz defense well. Seattle is

470
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 3: elite at a lot of stuff, especially good middle of

471
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 3: the field defense, especially good against motion and playoff. That's

472
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 3: the Shanahan scheme. That's what Shanahan does so well. Talked

473
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 3: about the late downs and red zone coverage. Seattle plays

474
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 3: the second most light boxes in the league. San Frin

475
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 3: has not run the ball well this year, and they're

476
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 3: only thirtieth and EPA per play against light boxes, they

477
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 3: don't hit a lot of explosives. Seattle defense well against that.

478
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 3: Seattle is number one against wide receiver one. San Frin

479
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 3: only really has one wide receiver, it's Jawan Jennings pearsall

480
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 3: still might be hurt. George Kittle is hurt. I do

481
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 3: think the Niners can get some success short passes. That's

482
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: one area Seattle does allow a little bit there more

483
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 3: league averaged, but that's a lot of short passes moving

484
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: down the field against a tough defense and expecting you

485
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 3: to do that over ten, twelve, fourteen plays and try

486
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 3: to get some points out of it. On the flip side.

487
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 3: Forty nine ers defense, we know how they've been bad.

488
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 3: I think it's a bit overlooked because they have the

489
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: one seed. Again, our perception of the one seeds maybe

490
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 3: a little bit off here. Seattle's offense has really fallen

491
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: off from the beginning of the season. First ten weeks

492
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 3: of the season, this was the number one passing team

493
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 3: by DVOA. Then they played the Rams and the Rams

494
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 3: said this, hey, you're going heavy because you're trying to

495
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 3: bait us to go heavy and match you two defensively,

496
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: but you're passing on us anyway. That's the Klint Kobiak scheme.

497
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 3: The RAM said, Nah, we're not doing that. You're gonna

498
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 3: pass the ball, you can't run anyways. We're just staying

499
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 3: in the defense we like to play and we don't

500
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 3: think you can beat us that way. And since Week

501
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 3: eleven that game forward, Seattle's dropped a twenty fifth in passing.

502
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 3: That's bottom quarter of the league, and teams that both

503
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 3: mostly copycated that. And obviously Robert Salid just saw this

504
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 3: offense also plays a ton of zone. Sam Darnold has

505
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 3: been way worse against zone than against man coverage. San

506
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 3: Fran better against swide receiver, one worse down the line.

507
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 3: Pretty good matchup for Seattle, who's got JSN and not

508
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 3: a lot else there. I think Seattle can run on

509
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: San Fran, but I think the forty nine ers will

510
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: live with that. They're gonna put out their light boxes

511
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 3: as well most in the league, and say, hey, you

512
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 3: want to run the ball ten, twelve, fourteen times down

513
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: the field, we'll pass the ball like that too, and

514
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 3: we'll play a thirteen to three. Maybe it will be

515
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 3: the thirteen this time. I think the underdog on the

516
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 3: road is gonna be fine with that script. So I

517
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 3: like under the most. I've got to lean on the

518
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 3: game and some props. What do you think about this matchup?

519
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think under is probably the right way you

520
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 4: would look at it. Just some like off the very

521
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 4: easy stats in terms of this matchup. Last three Seattle

522
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 4: San Francisco games all under the total with party. Then

523
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 4: you look five of the last six with party have

524
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 4: also gone under forty five. So I just think based

525
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 4: off this matchup, if you like Seattle, I could see

526
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 4: the over. If you think San Francisco covers, they're not

527
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 4: going to be able to put up those type of points.

528
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 4: It's going to be in that under forty range. It

529
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 4: just has to be. There. Just isn't enough firepower targets

530
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 4: people out there explosive wise to get that amount of points.

531
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:03,479
Speaker 4: So I think a San Francisco and the under type combo,

532
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 4: even if you talked about a teaser or you're just

533
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: moving a few points in either direction, that's got to

534
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 4: be the way this goes, or they're gonna have no shot.

535
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 4: So I think, listen, you're forty seven and a half,

536
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 4: great job. I mean that's that's over a few key numbers,

537
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 4: especially when you get to those. Forty six is even

538
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: hit sometimes of course forty seven, so that's fantastic. That

539
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 4: is no longer the case. But I do think when

540
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 4: you talk about getting closer to Saturday night, I see

541
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 4: it coming lower. So I do think that forty five

542
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 4: right now still does hold some value. Listen, we've also

543
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 4: talked about like the Denver minus one, minus one and

544
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 4: a half, whatever you want to call it. The point

545
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,439
Speaker 4: spread doesn't matter, so I kind of ignore history. This

546
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 4: is to me where the point spread matters. I mean,

547
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 4: thirty three and forty four against a spread division round

548
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 4: coming off of bye three and seven since twenty twenty.

549
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 4: But this is the one that matters to me, favorite

550
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,720
Speaker 4: of seven plus points off the by seventeen and twenty

551
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 4: six forty percent. So that's the one you're gonna have

552
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 4: to overcome here. Now, the news came out about Sam

553
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 4: Donald being questionable, all that stuff. Ignore it. It doesn't matter,

554
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 4: except don't ignore it in one sense, like there is

555
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 4: a chance he gets hurt in this game, right, Like

556
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 4: that is something that actually could happen. And then you

557
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 4: have there is a percentage chance more than I would

558
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 4: see Purty exiting this game, seeing Donald exiting this game,

559
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 4: and seeing Drew Locke. So I do think we even

560
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,719
Speaker 4: just saw the market react to that injury news and

561
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 4: it came down with some juice, Like I don't know

562
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 4: if those seven and a halfs are popping up again

563
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 4: based off of a number of factors. So I do

564
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 4: feel that this matchup has the ability to be closer,

565
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 4: just because of the schemes from San Francisco and you're

566
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 4: stat about them being twenty fifth recently on offense. That's alarming,

567
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: especially to the fact that I feel like they could

568
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 4: do a pretty good defensive job on JSN here to

569
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 4: keep him not in check but not go off. And

570
00:27:55,200 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 4: I think that's what they're gonna need to probably stay

571
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 4: in this one.

572
00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think if it does go under what

573
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 3: what ever number is San fran is that seven and

574
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 3: a half better above the key. But I think even

575
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 3: at seven sevens a lot of points in a game

576
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 3: that went thirteen to three last time, I think finished

577
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 3: thirty nine the first time out, sevens out was a

578
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 3: lot of points, but especially in a low scoring game,

579
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 3: I think I'm not on the side here as much,

580
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 3: but I certainly don't have to lean san Fran above

581
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 3: the key number. Let's see where it lands. Like you

582
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 3: said with the Darnald News, I had some of those

583
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 3: same stats. A lot of trends on San Fran here,

584
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 3: A lot of the trends we just said with Denver

585
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 3: fading the one seed after the bye week, Division round

586
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 3: thirty four percent ats Division of round favorites over seventy

587
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,639
Speaker 3: fur percent win rate thirty four percent ATS. A couple

588
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 3: other new ones here, road team and a division rematch

589
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. That's the Niners fourteen six and one

590
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 3: seventy percent ats there division round visitors that missed last

591
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 3: year's playoffs last round. If you were new to the

592
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 3: playoffs that didn't make it last year, we fade those teams,

593
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 3: you might be a bit of a fraud. You kind

594
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 3: of lucked into it. Now you had to win to

595
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 3: get to this round. Now you want those teams twenty

596
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 3: nine to fourteen ATS sixty seven percent. So a lot

597
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 3: of trends like the Niners here, especially at the seven,

598
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 3: there are a lot of trends that like Seattle to

599
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 3: win the game. Seattle's won ten in a row at

600
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 3: home with fans on the stands you in your column,

601
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 3: Darnold thirteen to zero as a six point favorite or better.

602
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 3: There's the huge rest advantage stat We've seen teams that

603
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 3: win as underdogs in the wildcard round almost never win

604
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: this round. Like it's really rare. Two and twenty two

605
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 3: since I forget what the date is, but obviously in

606
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 3: the last twenty four games. So a little bet here,

607
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 3: Niners to cover hopefully seven and a half. You can

608
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 3: get it seven if you need it. I would not

609
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 3: play it underneath the seven Niners to cover plus Seattle

610
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 3: to win. So some books you can just do Seattle

611
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: to win by one to seven points. I think Seattle

612
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 3: gets the win, but the Niners keep it close. And look,

613
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 3: you mentioned this. If you want to throw the under

614
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 3: in there, that makes a lot of sense as well.

615
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 3: Mine doesn't have the under in there. It's basically a

616
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 3: two to one bet. Well, that would be the side here.

617
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: I'm going to be playing props on this one. I

618
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 3: think a lot of short passes. I wanted Christian McCaffrey props.

619
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: That's what I played Week eighteen the CMC receptions escalator.

620
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 3: Apparently books were like everybody wants that. You can't play

621
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 3: it good luck. So Seattle allows the most running back receptions.

622
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 3: We hit it in week eighteen CMC when Kittle was

623
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: playing fifty percent snaps or less over nine targets a game.

624
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: But the lines aren't new. I can't find any value there.

625
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 3: You got to play like ten receptions to get anything

626
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 3: out of it. So I'm gonna go with a couple

627
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 3: other guys here, two guys less heralded. Jake Tanjas the

628
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 3: replacement for George Kittle. Seattle also allows top five most

629
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 3: receptions to tight ends. They've allowed seven or more tight

630
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 3: end catches in over half of their games, eight or

631
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 3: more and over third of their games. San Fran thirteen

632
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 3: tight end catches and the two Seattle games already, so

633
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 3: Kittle's a big loss here. He would have been a

634
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: big weapon, but the last three games Kittle has missed

635
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: the entire game. Here's Tanja's lines seven for sixty, six

636
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: for forty eight, seven for forty one. He's getting some

637
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 3: volume here, six seven catches each time, two touchdowns in

638
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 3: those games too. We'll take the Jake Tonjes unlikely playoff

639
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:17,959
Speaker 3: receptions escalator five catches plus one thirty five six at

640
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 3: plus two to fifty seven I'll actually put more of

641
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 3: my bet on there than on the five that's at DraftKings.

642
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 3: That's what he's hit in these games. And then seven

643
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,479
Speaker 3: is just over five to one. That's Jake Toanjas. Then

644
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: last one on the other side, Kenneth Walker. The Niners

645
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 3: allow the second most running back receptions, behind only Seattle.

646
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: They've allowed nineteen running backs this year to have at

647
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 3: least three catches more than one per game, nine of

648
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 3: them with four more catches. Kenneth Walker. I don't really

649
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 3: think is that good of a receiver. But last eight

650
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 3: games he's averaging two and a half catches for twenty

651
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 3: five yards. Now, it's not much, but before that he

652
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 3: was averaging one point two catches for nine yards. It's

653
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 3: a huge jump. That's twenty catches those eight games. That's

654
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 3: as many as Sharberney has the entire season. And he's

655
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 3: had three catches and more six times, including both Niners games.

656
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 3: So not quite as aggressive here because I don't really

657
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 3: think this is a huge matchup angle or even a

658
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 3: Kenneth Walker's strength. But three catches is plus one ninety

659
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 3: he's hit that both Niners matchups. I have to like

660
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 3: that one. Just a little nibble on four catches at

661
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 3: plus five twenty five. And if it is this kind

662
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 3: of slog under type game, hopefully get lots of short passes,

663
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 3: lots of dump off type stuff, hopefully goes to Tanjas

664
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 3: and Kenneth Walker and we kind of scrape across a

665
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 3: few props here.

666
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 4: Would you have considered maybe juicing those Kenneth Walker reception

667
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 4: props with McCaffrey, like you could do five, you could

668
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 4: do six, like the McCaffrey stuff juiced out of them.

669
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 4: Out of this world, and you probably don't do it

670
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 4: so low. But if you think it's gonna hit, it

671
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 4: could be a nice marriage, assuming both these teams allow

672
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 4: a ton of to receive. I mean to running backs,

673
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 4: like it could be something where you just touch both

674
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 4: of them. But did you was that considered at all?

675
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 3: I couldn't find a value on a McCaffrey line, So

676
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: I don't mind. I would not juice the Tanjas ones

677
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 3: because you're hoping the Tanja's short passes probably come at

678
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 3: the cost of McCaffrey short passes. I don't mind playing

679
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,719
Speaker 3: a little bit with Walker if you're trying to kind

680
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 3: of put together I don't mind playing that with the

681
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 3: under because I think that kind of fits the script.

682
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 3: I don't mind playing San fran covering I think that

683
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,240
Speaker 3: fits the script. So if you want to kind of

684
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 3: juice the lines a little bit, I don't mind throwing

685
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 3: some McCaffrey stock in there. He's gonna get his looks.

686
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 3: It's just I looked at all the numbers. I think

687
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 3: you almost might be better off playing yardage with McCaffrey than receptions.

688
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: The volume is so high for him that it's just

689
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 3: not in the market anymore. So the yardage is starting

690
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 3: to climb as well. I wanted it. I had a

691
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 3: whole I had my notes all prepped for McCaffrey, and

692
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 3: I just can't find any lines I like, So don't

693
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 3: I don't mind the angle. I just don't see a

694
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,000
Speaker 3: ton of value on it.

695
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 4: What I looked up which I thought was interesting. With

696
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 4: Kenneth Walker, so in games where he gets a lot

697
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 4: of targets, obviously the perceptions are there. This one kind

698
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 4: of is alarming. So when he gets four plus targets

699
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 4: versus San Francisco, he's had thirty two yards, thirty three yards,

700
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 4: thirty seven yards, and thirty six yards in his last

701
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 4: four games, in that spot. Last twenty games he gets

702
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,319
Speaker 4: four plus targets, he's averaging thirty four receiving yards right now.

703
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 4: I believe that line is somewhere like eleven and a

704
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 4: half or something like that. So obviously, if there's volume there,

705
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 4: it's a great bet. And that's kind of the bet

706
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 4: you're making. So I mean, from a reception standpoint, you

707
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,280
Speaker 4: could try to marry that with some yards as well.

708
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 4: Fifteen plus twenty plus and hopefully that is just the

709
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 4: angle they take because the snaps have been there, the

710
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 4: routes have been there, so it kind of makes sense.

711
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, Donald is gonna see some pressure here. San Fran

712
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 3: does not pressure well. But I think this is a

713
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 3: little bit of a bet against Donald and him kind

714
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 3: of panicking and dumping it off a little bit. And

715
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 3: we all love to bet against Sam Darnald a little

716
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 3: bit in a playoffs splot, So I think that angle

717
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 3: kind of hits as well. And you're right if you

718
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 3: don't want to go too aggressive on the receptions, maybe

719
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 3: just playing for hoping Walker can even if he gets

720
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 3: one catch plus a lot, he hits the yardage twenty

721
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 3: or thirty yards. I think that's interesting as well.

722
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 4: All right Sunday, here we come. We start off at

723
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 4: three pm with Houston and New England. Right now, New

724
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 4: England about a three point favorite. Looks like it's going

725
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: back up to three and a half or so with

726
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 4: the Nico Collins news, which he looks like he will

727
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 4: be out, which we can talk about in a second.

728
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 4: Total about forty and a half, which is the lowest

729
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 4: of the weekend. What is your handicap initially with this game?

730
00:35:29,320 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 4: I mean, from my standpoint, it was the Nico news.

731
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 4: We talked about this on Favorites earlier today and I

732
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 4: was surprised that Nico didn't really come up a ton early.

733
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 4: I feel like, I mean, granted, you look at some

734
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 4: of the win loss stuff, which I'll talk about in

735
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 4: a second, I think it's a little skewed because the

736
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 4: on off numbers are definitely a lot different. But looks

737
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 4: like no Nico Collins in this game. So, Houston, New England,

738
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 4: what's your takeaway?

739
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that Nico loss is huge here, and

740
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 3: it's not just like a points yeah spread thing. Christian Gonzalez,

741
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 3: the lead corner on the Patriots, also so still in

742
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 3: question though he's practicing now, So it looks like he

743
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 3: probably will play and Nico Collins out there, that's a swing.

744
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 3: But it's not just that. It's that the Patriots actually

745
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 3: are dead last against sweaty zero one by DVA for

746
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: the season. So of all places, of all matchups to

747
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 3: lose Nico Collins, this is not the spot you wanted

748
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 3: to do it, and it really I came into the

749
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 3: week expecting, look, I'm wearing the Texans shirt if you

750
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 3: need a spoiler, and where this is gonna head. I

751
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 3: came into the week thinking, Okay, I'm all in on

752
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 3: Texans here. I have this line close to a pick

753
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 3: them at full strength. I have the Texans a clearly

754
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 3: better team than the Patriots. We're at three, three and

755
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:38,719
Speaker 3: a half. I'm gonna have to bet Houston if it

756
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 3: gets back there again. But the more I dug into it,

757
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 3: the more I got a little nervous about the matchup stuff.

758
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 3: And that happened last week with Chicago Green Bay, and

759
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 3: it came around that Chicago pulled through in the end,

760
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: but it took three quarters of it not looking good

761
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 3: and all the matchup stuff hitting. So here's where I

762
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 3: find a little bit of worries here, Houston's defense, We

763
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 3: know how good that they are. They just throttle the

764
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 3: Steelers on Monday Night, just like ended Tomlin ended the era,

765
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 3: ended Aaron Rodgers. Eli's glorious to watch. Houston this season

766
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 3: forces a three and out or turnover thirty nine percent

767
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 3: of their drives. That is outlier number one best in

768
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 3: the league for reference. That basically turns the opposing offense

769
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 3: into the Raiders that they're dead last on offense third

770
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,919
Speaker 3: at thirty nine percent themselves. So that's what Houston's doing

771
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 3: to you. That's how good they've been. We know Will

772
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 3: Anderson Daniel Hunter are going to bring the elite press

773
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 3: or pressure rate. But a thing about Houston that they

774
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 3: get lauded for I think rightfully. So they basically just

775
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,879
Speaker 3: play their eleven dudes and they play one or two

776
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:46,720
Speaker 3: schemes and they come at you with their guys. Seattle, Denver,

777
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,759
Speaker 3: some of these other elite defenses. They're throwing a mixed

778
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:53,279
Speaker 3: coverages at you. They're disguising it. They're throwing different packages,

779
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 3: six defensive backs, five three to one play. Houston's not

780
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 3: doing that. They're kind of saying, we're just better than

781
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 3: you are. Guys are better and we're going to beat

782
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 3: you the way we are and it clearly works usually. However,

783
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 3: in this matchup, there's a couple of things I think

784
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 3: could be a little problematic. Number One, Houston's pressure rates

785
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,439
Speaker 3: so good, but the Patriots are thirty EPA per play

786
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:17,400
Speaker 3: under pressure. That is an area Drake May has crushed

787
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: this season, and the Patriots also have been excellent in

788
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 3: twenty one personnel with two running backs. The defense for

789
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 3: Houston drops down to thirteenth in EPA per play against

790
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 3: twenty one and we know Henderson and Stevenson are going

791
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 3: to be on the field a lot for New England,

792
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 3: So that's one problem. Here's the bigger problem Houston's defense,

793
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 3: because they're so predictable, predictably good, but they can be

794
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 3: beaten by explosives down the field. Despite all the good

795
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: numbers for Houston, they're only fourteenth defensively against explosives, and

796
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 3: explosives can cover a lot of sins. You can be

797
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 3: a great defense for nine plays and give up one

798
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 3: big play on the tenth one and now he's in

799
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 3: the end zone and it didn't matter anymore or what

800
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 3: happened in between. New England leads the league and explosive

801
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 3: play raid offensively fourteen percent. That's about one of every

802
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 3: seven plays for them, and it's top five rushing and

803
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 3: number one passing. Passing, they're hitting explosive play once out

804
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 3: of every five passes for the entire season. That's Drake May. Look,

805
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 3: if I had an MVP vote, now that the votes

806
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 3: are in, we know I love my Stafford ticket. That's

807
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:28,279
Speaker 3: what made Drake May so valuable these numbers, these explosive

808
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 3: plays and beating the pressure, and I think he's the

809
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 3: perfect sort of guy to beat this Houston defense if

810
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 3: it's going to happen. I think that's why he was

811
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 3: so valuable this season. So that worries me as a

812
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 3: Houston possible backer. Here on the other side of things,

813
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 3: we talked about Jacksonville last week and down the stretches,

814
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 3: this big breakout team, Houston's breakout mirror Jacksonville down a stretch,

815
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 3: but the offense didn't really come with the Texans, the

816
00:39:56,400 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 3: offense hasn't really gotten a lot better, and Houston is

817
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 3: second worst in the red zone offensively. Well, the Patriots

818
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:05,839
Speaker 3: are the worst defense in the red zone. So where

819
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 3: does that go. Like what we talk about the strength

820
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 3: on strength, here's weakness on weakness and can Houston get

821
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 3: to the red zone and score? Can they run? We've

822
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,799
Speaker 3: talked about how weak the Patriots run defense has been

823
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 3: back half of the season thirtieth by Dvoa. Well, Houston

824
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,000
Speaker 3: has not run the ball well all season. I know

825
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 3: they did Monday night, but I don't trust them to

826
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 3: run the ball here where the Patriots are better, especially inside.

827
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 3: Patriots also are top ten defense against eleven personnel base personnel.

828
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 3: Houston pretty vanilla on offense as well. So there are

829
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 3: a lot of just little things where I'm like man

830
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 3: by roster construction by what I think about these teams.

831
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 3: I'm Houston, But then you add in all these little matchups.

832
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 3: You add in Houston a Texas Dome team on the

833
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 3: road in New England looks like wintry conditions on Sunday.

834
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 3: I don't feel great about that. I still want to

835
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 3: fade the home teams in the divisional round. I still

836
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 3: have some of those same stats, so I'm gonna nibble

837
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 3: the Houston money line plus one p fifty. It's still

838
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 3: my better team. I still trust my numbers. I like

839
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 3: Houston's defense, but it's a nibble. I can't be too

840
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,399
Speaker 3: confident here. Because we don't really know a lot about

841
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 3: the Patriots right now, and there are some matchup things

842
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 3: here that gave me some worries. So I'm curious what

843
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 3: you think. Should I be more confident in Houston or

844
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 3: am I right to be concerned about some of those matchups.

845
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 4: I think you're right to be concerned. I like Houston

846
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 4: in this game in the playoffs, I mean, they were

847
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 4: one of my picks when we did futures. I think

848
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 4: the defense will help. Listen, last week, CJ Strod probably

849
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 4: couldn't have played a worse game, and in the end

850
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 4: it didn't matter because of how good Houston's defense is.

851
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 4: Do I expect this game to be exactly like that.

852
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 4: I don't, But I just feel like it's like a

853
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 4: card game, Like I think Houston has a lot of outs, Like,

854
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,839
Speaker 4: I just think there's a lot of ways they can

855
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 4: figure out a way to win. And now I think

856
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 4: the one thing on Houston that does worry me a

857
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 4: tiny bit, I do give the coaching edge to Vrabel,

858
00:42:05,200 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 4: Like I feel like in a tight situation, which is

859
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 4: just you know, the smallest over under of the weekend,

860
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,319
Speaker 4: where a lot of these plays, especially late, might matter,

861
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 4: I don't have the utmost confidence in Dmiko. I kind

862
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 4: of feel like in those situations he could let us down.

863
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 4: But overall, I'm betting on what I believe is probably

864
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,560
Speaker 4: the best unit in the playoffs, which is their defense

865
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 4: figuring out a way to contain Drake May in this game.

866
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,720
Speaker 4: Now you're going to talk about some Drake May stats

867
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 4: and some props you like on him, But I found

868
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 4: it interesting that the Texans did face Drake May once.

869
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,440
Speaker 4: They played him last year in Week six, a forty

870
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 4: one to twenty one win. But what I took out

871
00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,799
Speaker 4: of it May through two interceptions, one of his two

872
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 4: career games with multiple picks. May pass success rate of

873
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 4: forty five point nine percent, fifth lowest of his career.

874
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 4: With thirty plus pass attempts, he had a sixty point

875
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 4: six percent completion percentage, his third lowest for thirty plus

876
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:04,280
Speaker 4: pass attemp So Houston did a pretty darn good job

877
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 4: containing him and doing what they needed to do to

878
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 4: win the game. Now, do I expect them to put

879
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 4: up forty one. I don't, But at this rate, putting

880
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 4: up twenty something should be enough for that defense, even

881
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 4: if they do allow an explosive play, Assuming that that

882
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 4: even if that explosive play goes for a touchdown, I'm

883
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 4: not so worried about it. Do I expect if they

884
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:27,760
Speaker 4: allow multiple explosive plays, then you start to get worried.

885
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 4: But I feel like a player two is still enough.

886
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 4: Where you talk about three and outs, you talk about turnovers,

887
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 4: there's going to be some chaos in this game from

888
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 4: Houston side, and I think that's what you're banking on.

889
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 4: And also if you're talking about just to spread here,

890
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 4: you're getting a field goal or even three and a

891
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 4: half in this game. So to me that if you're like,

892
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 4: if you like Houston, that is the difference in this one.

893
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 4: And then you look at the weather, Well, it was

894
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 4: damn cold. It wasn't great last week in Pittsburgh. This

895
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 4: week you're talking about about thirty five degrees. There's about

896
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 4: five six seven mile an hour wins, which at this rate,

897
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 4: you know it's not Chicago. But one thing to look at,

898
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 4: you might get a little rain. There's some precipitation in

899
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:14,720
Speaker 4: the forecast. That's not amazing for Houston's offense, but also

900
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 4: it could be bad for Houston for a New England's offense,

901
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 4: which would help our best unit play so to me,

902
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 4: I think that's part of the handicap that I would

903
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:24,760
Speaker 4: like with Houston in this one.

904
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:26,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I will certainly feel better, like you said,

905
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 3: if it's the three and a half, and that had

906
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 3: disappeared when I was getting ready for this, but it

907
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 3: makes sense that it's moving back that way with the

908
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,879
Speaker 3: Nico news likely being out here. I do a couple

909
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 3: of small props for this one. This is my least

910
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:40,160
Speaker 3: confident game of the weekend, so I kind of light

911
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,240
Speaker 3: on all of these. But Drake Mays stats against top

912
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 3: eight quarterback defenses this year four games, two hundred and

913
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 3: twenty eight yards, one point three touchdowns, so pretty low

914
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 3: on the touchdowns there, and it's almost identical to Houston's

915
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 3: six games against a top ten passing DVA offense. They've

916
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 3: allowed two hundred and twenty nine yards and point three touchdowns

917
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 3: nearly identical lines. So I think that's kind of what

918
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 3: you probably should expect from may Low on the passing touchdowns.

919
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: I do think he can run, though we saw that

920
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 3: on the game against the Chargers. Ten rushes sixty six yards,

921
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 3: both season highs. In that game, he's had twenty five

922
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 3: or more yards and half the games this season running

923
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 3: he's had forty or more and a third of the games.

924
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,720
Speaker 3: And Houston because they bring so much pressure so well,

925
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 3: it's gonna cause Drake to run a little bit. And

926
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:29,319
Speaker 3: he's done a really good job this year of even

927
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 3: when he does take a sack, taking like a two

928
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 3: or three yard sack like not as quite a damaging

929
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 3: of one. But when he scrambles he can create. He's

930
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 3: six in EPA per play on scrambles per dropback. Houston

931
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 3: is thirty first in that stat. They're getting so well

932
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 3: up the field pressuring that there's nobody there to contain

933
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 3: the quarterback, and one or two big plays by May

934
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 3: with his legs would not surprise me here either. So

935
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 3: I got creative. Here, here's a couple same game parlays

936
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,239
Speaker 3: for you with Drake May under one and a half

937
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 3: passing touch downs, so you get one or zero that's it,

938
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:07,080
Speaker 3: plus twenty five rushing yards plus one eighteen so twenty five.

939
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 3: It's below the number. His line is at thirty five

940
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 3: right now. I was all excited to do like a

941
00:46:11,320 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 3: twenty five forty to fifty, but books have already kind

942
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 3: of gone on to that when it baked it in

943
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 3: so I'll do under one and a half passing touchdowns

944
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 3: twenty five yards and then keep that but change it

945
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 3: to sixty rushing yards in case he does what he

946
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 3: did last week. That's plus five sixty nine with the

947
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,759
Speaker 3: under one and a half touchdowns passing and then one

948
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: other way to attack. I think the Patriots can attack.

949
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 3: Houston is also second worst EPA against screens in the

950
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 3: on the season, Patriots are top six on screenplays themselves. Now,

951
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,759
Speaker 3: who's the screen guy for the Patriots. I don't know

952
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 3: if there's a guy. The numbers suggest it might be

953
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 3: Rmandra Stevenson, even though it doesn't make a lot of sense.

954
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 3: Last six games three catches for thirty eight yards a

955
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 3: game for him, he's had three or more catches and

956
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 3: four of the six he's at at least twenty two

957
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 3: yards receiving in all of them, and a lot of

958
00:46:59,920 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 3: it's been yack sixty one percent of his season. Yak

959
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,040
Speaker 3: has come just in these six games. And if you're

960
00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 3: wondering about Trevion, he's only down about eight receiving snaps

961
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 3: a game the last five weeks. Reminder's at twenty two.

962
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 3: So I think Stevenson has kind of quietly become the

963
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 3: receiving back here, and the line for him is just

964
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:19,839
Speaker 3: nineteen and a half receiving yards. Again, he's gone over

965
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 3: that six straight games, so we'll start with there. And

966
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 3: in that stretch he's had a forty, he's had a

967
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 3: fifty five, and he's had a seventy five. Texans have

968
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 3: allowed thirty six yards or more to a running back

969
00:47:30,320 --> 00:47:33,560
Speaker 3: seven times already. We've seen some long ones. We saw

970
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 3: Genti hit a long score against them earlier this season.

971
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 3: I think again that could be a spot where one

972
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,759
Speaker 3: to play a one break contain could get a long

973
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 3: one for Stevens and so forty fifty and seventy receiving

974
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 3: yards on the escalator at four to one, six seventy

975
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 3: five and nineteen to one, just nibbling all the way up.

976
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 3: And again we're looking for those explosives. We're looking for

977
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: where can you attack this Houston defense. I think it's

978
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,239
Speaker 3: on the ground with Drake's legs and maybe by the

979
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 3: ear with Ramondre Stevenson. So we'll take a couple of

980
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:05,760
Speaker 3: shots at some long numbers there.

981
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna focus on Stevens and I think he

982
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 4: is the if New England does their job and wins

983
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,759
Speaker 4: this game. He will be the reason. He will be

984
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 4: the focal point. And to me, it's not going to

985
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 4: be at least I don't think a three touchdown game

986
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 4: through the air for Drake may So. I looked at

987
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,840
Speaker 4: Ramandre in a similar stat to Walker, three plus targets

988
00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 4: for him. He has twenty seven plus receiving yards in

989
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 4: seven straight games. So just give him a little volume

990
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 4: and he'll do the job. And you mentioned Ramandre Stevenson

991
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 4: versus Trevion Henderson, Well, since thereby here are the snaps

992
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 4: in terms of routes for both these players, twenty three

993
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 4: to eight, thirteen to zero, nineteen to zero, thirty four

994
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,320
Speaker 4: to five, nineteen to eight, and that's all in favor

995
00:48:47,360 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 4: of Vermandre so obviously at this point, and I think

996
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 4: for most of the season, if you've had Henderson in fantasy,

997
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 4: he's been in the doghouse. He is not getting anywhere

998
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 4: near what I think people thought he would this year.

999
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 4: And Ramandre is still the dark horse and still the man,

1000
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 4: and still the guy who does all the work for them.

1001
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 4: So to me, whether it's a touchdown or receiving yards

1002
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 4: or you know, there's a lot of different ways I

1003
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 4: would play him, But to me, in this type of

1004
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 4: weather format, I think he's going to be the man

1005
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 4: on the ground. And I'll leave you with what I

1006
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 4: teas at the beginning. It is intriguing with the Nico

1007
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 4: stat that last three seasons, Nicos missed nine games. Houston

1008
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:25,879
Speaker 4: is six and three in those games. So, I mean

1009
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 4: a lot of the numbers don't look as good and

1010
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 4: a lot of the inside stuff the same. But with

1011
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,080
Speaker 4: this defense, they're able to kind of figure things out

1012
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 4: on the fly and sometimes the ball just ends up

1013
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,279
Speaker 4: in their hands because of all the pressure. So I

1014
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 4: think if you're betting on Houston, that's what you're hoping

1015
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 4: for here, because I think you're, you know, without Nico,

1016
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 4: you've become a much less explosive team. You know what

1017
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,399
Speaker 4: he marks a little bit, But other than that, you're

1018
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 4: you're relying on Jaden Higgins, Dalton Schultz. It's going to

1019
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 4: be a very medium game for them. So I think

1020
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,760
Speaker 4: the under in Houston has some validity to So that's

1021
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 4: the way I would look at this matchup.

1022
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you were wanting to bet Houston, you were

1023
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 3: not betting them for their offense in this game anyway.

1024
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 3: You're betting them because you expect the defense to contain

1025
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,959
Speaker 3: what is largely a one man team. That's the whole

1026
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,839
Speaker 3: thing with MVP. If you're Drake May, you're the guy

1027
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 3: doing everything, and those teams usually come up short in

1028
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 3: the playoffs, especially against such a great defense like this.

1029
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 3: So I think you shouldn't let the Nico news shake you.

1030
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 3: So totally there and yeah, what do you marks? He'll

1031
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,840
Speaker 3: be explosive until his weekly injury somewhere on the second

1032
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 3: or third quarter. That guy cannot stay on the field, But.

1033
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:35,360
Speaker 4: Don't worry, he will be back. And that's how it

1034
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 4: works with what he marks. Our last matchup of the

1035
00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 4: weekend and boys at a doozy the Rams on the

1036
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 4: road in Chicago to face the Bears. Line right now

1037
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 4: is three and a half for the Rams with a

1038
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 4: bunch of juice on it, minus one twenty, minus one

1039
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,479
Speaker 4: eighteen total, sitting at forty eight and a half, which

1040
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:54,520
Speaker 4: is the highest of the weekend, and probably the more

1041
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 4: interesting note is that it opened around fifty one to

1042
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 4: fifty one and a half, so it has come down

1043
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 4: three full points. A lot of wind, a lot of weather,

1044
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 4: a lot of Stafford cold talk. I mean that's basically

1045
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:07,839
Speaker 4: what you've had on the internet for the past three

1046
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 4: or four days. So when you look at this matchup,

1047
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 4: leaving it for last year, what do you think about

1048
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 4: the Rams and Bears.

1049
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was ready to come out firing on the

1050
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 3: Rams here, but the weather talk and the Stafford finger

1051
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:22,479
Speaker 3: injury talk do have me a little bit concerned. I'm

1052
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:25,399
Speaker 3: still Rams here and we'll talk through why, but I'm

1053
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 3: gonna be a little less aggressive than I would have

1054
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,720
Speaker 3: been without the wedge, the weather and the finger injury.

1055
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 3: So look, the Bears. We talked about this with the

1056
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 3: last Packers game. I thought they won their Super Bowl then,

1057
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 3: well it turns out not because they won a few

1058
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 3: more games since then. But this time this sort of

1059
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 3: win in that way, this huge emotional comeback win against

1060
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 3: your rival in the playoffs. I'm a Vikings fan. I've

1061
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,480
Speaker 3: seen this movie. You get the huge emotional win early

1062
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,560
Speaker 3: in the playoffs. It's really hard to come back the

1063
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 3: next week and bring that same emotional energy and show

1064
00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 3: up the same way again. So many times you see

1065
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:02,239
Speaker 3: the huge come back when that's also the end of

1066
00:52:02,239 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 3: the DVD. Like the footnote is, you don't come through

1067
00:52:05,200 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 3: the next week and it matters not just that they

1068
00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 3: had the comeback, but it matters that, for a second

1069
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 3: straight time against a terrible Packers defense, they did nothing

1070
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,439
Speaker 3: for three quarters and they couldn't get the ball moving

1071
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 3: at all until late. They also lose their starting left tackle,

1072
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 3: which was a big part of their transformation on the

1073
00:52:21,840 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 3: offensive line. They'll lost their only good linebacker on a

1074
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 3: defense that's already really been poor at best, and the

1075
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 3: Rams are kind of getting healthy at the right time. Finally,

1076
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 3: it looks like Dotson might be back on their line

1077
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 3: and get them whole again. And to me, this is

1078
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,680
Speaker 3: just a mismatch on paper. The Bears defense by far

1079
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,160
Speaker 3: the weak length and if the weather is good and

1080
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 3: Stafford's finger is okay, I think the Rams offense gets

1081
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 3: anything at once. Here's some of the numbers. Success rate

1082
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 3: first versus twenty fifth, explosives, third versus twenty two, rushing

1083
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 3: EPA four versus twenty six. I mentioned that one because

1084
00:52:56,800 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 3: that's a pretty good cold weather stat. If you're gonna

1085
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,080
Speaker 3: have to play the cold, how about we run the football,

1086
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:04,920
Speaker 3: especially with thoughts and back out. The Rams can run

1087
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:07,399
Speaker 3: much better than they're given credit for. I believe they're

1088
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 3: top two in the league DA running as well as passing.

1089
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 3: The Bears defense bottom ten against play action, bottom ten

1090
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:16,959
Speaker 3: under center. That's the Rams number one most in both

1091
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:20,359
Speaker 3: of those that they're also third worst at allowing middle

1092
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,360
Speaker 3: of the field, where the Rams have gotten much better

1093
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 3: attacking this season. They're also terrible at outside runs, where

1094
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 3: the Rams are number one. Blake Corum especially, I think

1095
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,279
Speaker 3: it could be a good quorum game. He's run really

1096
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 3: well outside of the tackles, and then down the field.

1097
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 3: Bears are giving up explosive twenty seventh against passing deep

1098
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 3: by EPA. The Rams have the most deep passes in

1099
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 3: the league and are top five there. So I just

1100
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:49,439
Speaker 3: see all sorts of numbers that tell me the Rams

1101
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 3: should score some points. And here's where I really thought

1102
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:55,800
Speaker 3: this was interesting is that McVeigh is playing Dennis Allen's

1103
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 3: defense here. McVeigh knows how to play Dennis Allen defense.

1104
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 3: That was a long, long time matchup that he got

1105
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 3: used to. He's six and two lifetime against the Dennis

1106
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 3: Allen defense, averaging twenty nine points a game, including in

1107
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,280
Speaker 3: a NAFC Championship game that's pretty infamous with Rams Saints

1108
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:13,880
Speaker 3: not so long ago. So I think the Rams score

1109
00:54:14,040 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 3: a lot. I think they score plenty. The other side

1110
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 3: of the ball is what complicates things here, because the

1111
00:54:20,000 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 3: Rams defense is fading pretty hard, and honestly, I was

1112
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 3: not impressed against the Panthers thirty one to Carolina. That's

1113
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:30,879
Speaker 3: not going to go very well. They allowed twenty nine

1114
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 3: a game week thirteen to seventeen, and they are giving

1115
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 3: up huge explosive plays nineteen percent the first twelve games,

1116
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 3: up to forty one percent since then, second worst in

1117
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 3: the NFL. Caleb and the Bears like to throw deep

1118
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:47,879
Speaker 3: and the Rams defense everyone's talked about Chris Shula. He's

1119
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 3: getting some of those coaching interviews. They are top three

1120
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 3: most zone, top three most light box, bottom three blitz.

1121
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:57,439
Speaker 3: They are what they are. They are exactly what they're

1122
00:54:57,440 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 3: meant to be, and they're a smaller speed defense. But

1123
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 3: that's the sort of team. We saw that small speedy

1124
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 3: defense get run hard on by the Eagles last year

1125
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,920
Speaker 3: a couple times. That's the sort of team the Bears

1126
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:13,320
Speaker 3: are trying to be. And the best defense the Bears

1127
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 3: can offer this game is a long running drive, chewing

1128
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,040
Speaker 3: up the clock and keeping the Rams on the sideline

1129
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 3: Over there. The Bears our second most play action. The

1130
00:55:23,080 --> 00:55:25,720
Speaker 3: Rams have not been good play action this season. Rams

1131
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 3: play heavy light box. Like I just said, the Bears

1132
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 3: are number one EPA per play against light box, so

1133
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:34,760
Speaker 3: I think there's a world where Ben Johnson's offense maybe

1134
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 3: matches score for score. However, they've been better let late

1135
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 3: in the game second half, so I don't love the

1136
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 3: comeback possibility if I'm a Rams better We've seen the

1137
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 3: Bears come through that back door over and over even

1138
00:55:48,640 --> 00:55:51,840
Speaker 3: get the win. Another concerning staff though for the Bears,

1139
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:55,640
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams has been way way better against man. The

1140
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 3: Rams play heavy zone. Through October, Williams was thirty p

1141
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 3: against man coverage twenty first against zone. It's narrowed a

1142
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 3: little bit over this season. But can he beat that

1143
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:09,840
Speaker 3: vulnerable Ram secondary will get confused by some of the

1144
00:56:09,880 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 3: coverages there. So I don't really know, Evan. If I

1145
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:16,320
Speaker 3: think what the Bears are going to score, I trust

1146
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 3: the Rams to score. Except then again, full circle back

1147
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 3: to the weather, win chill around zero. This is my

1148
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 3: kind of weather. I'm in North Dakota. This is what

1149
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 3: we do here every day. But you see all the

1150
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:29,279
Speaker 3: Stafford stats in the rain and snow. You see the

1151
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:33,080
Speaker 3: mcveighs stats in Chicago. The injury to the finger, I'm

1152
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:35,919
Speaker 3: not so worried about it. It's not his like main

1153
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,080
Speaker 3: stabilizing finger throwing. If you listen to the football doctors,

1154
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 3: it should be okay. But man, it did not look

1155
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:45,040
Speaker 3: okay last week. So I like the Rams to score.

1156
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:47,919
Speaker 3: I'll talk about how to bet it. What do you think?

1157
00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:50,320
Speaker 3: Are you concerned about the weather factor. Are you concerned

1158
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,680
Speaker 3: about the Stafford finger injury? How much does that play

1159
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 3: in for you?

1160
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't worry about the weather. I think it's overblown.

1161
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:58,800
Speaker 4: Stafford's played fine in some of those weather games. I

1162
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:00,600
Speaker 4: think it just depends on the matt. I think the

1163
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:04,160
Speaker 4: finger thing is way more impactful than not. I mean,

1164
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 4: I think what we saw in that Carolina game wasn't pretty,

1165
00:57:08,080 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 4: and I'd be worried. And you know about a week's

1166
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:13,279
Speaker 4: rest in this one, how it looks, and you know what,

1167
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 4: I've seen some throws during practice. You know, hard to tell,

1168
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 4: but to me, that would be the one detriment to

1169
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 4: what's going right for the offense for the Rams, and

1170
00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:25,560
Speaker 4: the one thing that could possibly get in the way.

1171
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 4: So I mean, to me, if I'm going to weigh

1172
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:29,720
Speaker 4: things I'm worried about. If I'm a RAMS better, that's

1173
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 4: probably one of them. I found it kind of intriguing.

1174
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 4: You know, Rams offense obviously incredible. There's second right now

1175
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:39,040
Speaker 4: in EPA per play. So I looked at Chicago facing

1176
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 4: really good offenses, especially recently, is what I wanted to see.

1177
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:45,600
Speaker 4: So Rams are second, they Green Bay is fourth. They

1178
00:57:45,640 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 4: split with them one to one, but Chicago didn't look

1179
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:52,439
Speaker 4: fantastic for most of those games on the offensive side

1180
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 4: of the ball, which you know obviously you're going to

1181
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 4: have to do to keep up here. San Francisco there's

1182
00:57:57,040 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 4: sixth in offensive EPA per play. They lost that game,

1183
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:03,200
Speaker 4: Detroit ninth. They lost that game recently. So to me,

1184
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 4: I think it's up to Chicago's offense to play with

1185
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 4: the Rams in this one. And last week a bunch

1186
00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:14,080
Speaker 4: of us, like Devonte under receptions to me, him and

1187
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 4: Puka got like thirty one targets last week, So I

1188
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:20,439
Speaker 4: believe that that is a preview of what's to come here.

1189
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 4: They are both going to be peppered all day long,

1190
00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:26,360
Speaker 4: and I think Higbee Parkinson, I actually don't know if

1191
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:28,120
Speaker 4: there's news on Fergus and I assume he's not going

1192
00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 4: to play. But at this point, you've got David Allen.

1193
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 4: You got enough tight ends out there that I think

1194
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:36,120
Speaker 4: they're going to give Ben Johnson in that defense a

1195
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 4: little bit of trouble. And to me, that's probably the

1196
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:42,400
Speaker 4: handicap here is that forget the weather, forget everything else.

1197
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 4: Obviously it's the injury to the finger that you're worried about.

1198
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,640
Speaker 4: But if the Rams are the Rams, I think they're

1199
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 4: going to put up enough points. I think my question

1200
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:52,840
Speaker 4: back to you would be, did you consider Rams first

1201
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 4: half or Rams first half at least team total over? Like,

1202
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 4: were those two bets that even crossed your mind? You know,

1203
00:58:59,600 --> 00:58:59,960
Speaker 4: I don't.

1204
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:02,360
Speaker 3: I think I considered strongly a first half play, But

1205
00:59:02,400 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 3: I don't mind it. It makes a lot of sense

1206
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 3: because we know the Bears have started so slowly offensively

1207
00:59:07,080 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 3: all season, like of these Packers games. But the numbers

1208
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 3: tell you over and over we've played Bears second halves

1209
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 3: a few times this season and trusted their offense late

1210
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,520
Speaker 3: in the game. So I don't mind that. To me,

1211
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 3: I kind of just want volume. I think if I'm right,

1212
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 3: if I'm right that the Rams are gonna score points.

1213
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 3: Then I think I just want all sixty minutes. I

1214
00:59:27,640 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 3: think I just want enough chances to say, Okay, Stafford

1215
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:32,959
Speaker 3: got a pass tipped and we lost one of the drives. Something.

1216
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 3: We know Chicago how good they've been at forcing kind

1217
00:59:36,560 --> 00:59:39,920
Speaker 3: of wonky turnovers, So I think I prefer a full game.

1218
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:42,439
Speaker 3: I'm gonna play the Rams minus three and a half.

1219
00:59:42,520 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 3: I don't mind four if you need it. They've covered

1220
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 3: that line in all but one win until last week,

1221
00:59:47,640 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 3: so they're usually not winning super close games. If you

1222
00:59:51,440 --> 00:59:54,200
Speaker 3: like it. I like the team total here, twenty six

1223
00:59:54,240 --> 00:59:56,120
Speaker 3: and a half. I think it kind of works as

1224
00:59:56,160 --> 00:59:58,160
Speaker 3: a proxy for a Rams money line, so it might

1225
00:59:58,200 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 3: even be better than the spread. For Get the key

1226
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 3: number there over twenty six and a half. The Rams

1227
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 3: have hit that twelve of eighteen games a season, and

1228
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,520
Speaker 3: they had a twenty six in there, so thirteen of

1229
01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 3: eighteen counting that one, and when they scored twenty seven

1230
01:00:11,320 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 3: or more, they're ten and two. They're only three and

1231
01:00:13,960 --> 01:00:16,840
Speaker 3: three without that, So I think twenty seven in a

1232
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 3: game against a good offense, with your defense faltering, you're

1233
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 3: probably gonna need to get to some total like that.

1234
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 3: One Chicago's allowed twenty seven or more eight times already.

1235
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:27,600
Speaker 3: They've allowed that many all but one.

1236
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 4: Of their loss.

1237
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 3: So it's like a proxy for a Bears loss and

1238
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 3: a proxy for a Rams win. But you're getting a

1239
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:37,240
Speaker 3: money line price at a discount here, effectively. So I

1240
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 3: like the overteam total twenty six and a half. And

1241
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:42,000
Speaker 3: I'll do a little escalator on there because I'm gonna

1242
01:00:42,040 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 3: avoid the spread. I don't want to mess with the

1243
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 3: back door. I don't want to get Chicago pushing in late.

1244
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,120
Speaker 3: We've seen that too many times over thirty three and

1245
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 3: a half plus three thirty. The Rams have scored thirty

1246
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:55,800
Speaker 3: three or more ten times at nine of their thirteen wins,

1247
01:00:56,080 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 3: so I like that number as a possibility. And then

1248
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 3: the Rams have scored forty one three times the Bearers

1249
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 3: allowed forty two three times already. Forty or more is

1250
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:07,600
Speaker 3: plus six twenty five, again a little lighter than I'd

1251
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 3: love to go here. I'd love to just be like

1252
01:01:09,640 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 3: Rams stomp on the Bears. Their defense is terrible. Talked

1253
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 3: about the tight ends for the Rams. We've done that

1254
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 3: all season. Bears have no linebackers. There's so many mismatches here.

1255
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 3: Just the weather and the Finger aren't gonna get me

1256
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 3: off of the Rams. They're gonna get me to be

1257
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 3: a little more careful here. And you know, it is

1258
01:01:27,040 --> 01:01:30,040
Speaker 3: a divisional round and we think we know everything and

1259
01:01:30,080 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 3: then everything happens and football goes crazy. So I like

1260
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 3: the Rams, like their team total. And one last one here,

1261
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 3: I gave out on the hot read Ram Seahawks money

1262
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:43,320
Speaker 3: line parlay. Well, at some books you can add to

1263
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:47,880
Speaker 3: that Rams Seahawks money line parlay plus NFC wins the

1264
01:01:47,920 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 3: super Bowl. If I get Ram Seahawks money line parlay,

1265
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:54,240
Speaker 3: I get my two top teams in my power ratings

1266
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 3: by far more than if you'll go better than anyone

1267
01:01:56,440 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 3: else on a neutral, I'm guaranteed a team I like

1268
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 3: the super Bowl, and I get that at plus two

1269
01:02:02,200 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 3: thirteen instead of just plus one hundred on the hot read.

1270
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 3: I'm gonna like the NFC team the super Bowl. So

1271
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:08,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna like to add that one in as well.

1272
01:02:08,720 --> 01:02:10,240
Speaker 3: So a little bonus future there for you.

1273
01:02:10,880 --> 01:02:13,800
Speaker 4: I like that. That is a very brand and angle

1274
01:02:13,840 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 4: on that one. Let me put some numbers to that

1275
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:19,000
Speaker 4: first half second half stuff because I spect for Caleb

1276
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:22,480
Speaker 4: because it's really jarring. So first half Caleb is thirteen

1277
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 4: and twenty two first half ats, worst mark of any

1278
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:28,240
Speaker 4: quarterback over the last two seasons. He's lost four straight

1279
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:30,880
Speaker 4: first halves against the spread. Entering this week, he is

1280
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,200
Speaker 4: five and eleven first half ats versus teams above five hundred.

1281
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:37,240
Speaker 4: Second half Caleb is twenty four and eleven second half

1282
01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 4: ats and thirty five career starts, second best quarterback over

1283
01:02:40,560 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 4: the last decade behind Josh Allen. Caleb and the Bears

1284
01:02:43,800 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 4: have covered eight straight second halves and during the divisional round.

1285
01:02:46,840 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't know if we've really seen this

1286
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:51,400
Speaker 4: much of a difference first half to second half in

1287
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 4: any team. And I think at any point in this

1288
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 4: game Bears are trailing, you're gonna start to hear Twitter,

1289
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 4: You're gonna start to hear everyone start talking about, well,

1290
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:01,920
Speaker 4: they're not dead yet, but if they start strong, I

1291
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:04,280
Speaker 4: think it changes the narrative a little bit. But those

1292
01:03:04,320 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 4: numbers are really really jarring. I think the other angle

1293
01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:09,960
Speaker 4: for Chicago is also the fact a lot of people

1294
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 4: have talked about the big comebacks. Usually a big comeback

1295
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 4: in the playoffs usually goes to a letdown. Since division

1296
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 4: realignment in two thousand and two, teams after coming back

1297
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,040
Speaker 4: from ten plus points down in the playoffs, are just

1298
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:25,120
Speaker 4: eight and twenty two in their next playoff game, including

1299
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 4: five and fifteen in any round before the Super Bowl.

1300
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:29,840
Speaker 4: This is a tough one on a bit of a

1301
01:03:29,880 --> 01:03:32,120
Speaker 4: short week, on a you know, just a one week er.

1302
01:03:32,680 --> 01:03:34,840
Speaker 4: It's a bit of a tough thing. Now you're at home,

1303
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 4: you're getting points. It's why I'm talking about just winning

1304
01:03:37,640 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 4: the game, and kind of works to what Brandon's talking

1305
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 4: about with the Rams money line. So that's the way

1306
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:43,920
Speaker 4: I look at it. It is going to be a

1307
01:03:43,960 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 4: fascinating matchup. And to me, this is you know, we

1308
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:49,720
Speaker 4: don't have all the juggernauts here, but these games are

1309
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 4: really fantastic. So let's now move to your look ahead.

1310
01:03:55,000 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 4: Let's talk ahead, excive it a shot, how about next week?

1311
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 3: Back out, Mama, say, I got my mindset.

1312
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 4: So this is something we would be looking at potentially

1313
01:04:07,480 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 4: for the conference championship for Super Bowl, and you have

1314
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 4: a play what do you like? Yeah?

1315
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:14,960
Speaker 3: So again, DraftKings and others will post these kind of

1316
01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 3: hypothetical lines for games we might get. So I've realized

1317
01:04:18,880 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 3: I've actually backed all four road teams this weekend. What

1318
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 3: could possibly go wrong. But in the offense that I'm

1319
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 3: wrong and we get both home teams advancing in the NFC.

1320
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:30,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Seattle minus five and a half home

1321
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:33,919
Speaker 3: against the Bears, and look, public opinion of the Bears

1322
01:04:33,960 --> 01:04:36,640
Speaker 3: would certainly rise if they beat the Rams. You're gonna

1323
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:39,200
Speaker 3: start to get some team of destiny conversation I'm assuming

1324
01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 3: after that. But now you hit the road. Chicago winning

1325
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 3: two home games, totally different animal, going on the road

1326
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 3: to Seattle where they would have won eleven straight games

1327
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:51,200
Speaker 3: with fans in the stands in the playoffs, huge home

1328
01:04:51,200 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 3: field advantage in Seattle, and you got Caleb Williams road

1329
01:04:54,600 --> 01:04:58,360
Speaker 3: debut in the playoffs. Ben Johnson's offense goes from Packers

1330
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:01,960
Speaker 3: and Rams to Seahawks. It's like playing Mario level one

1331
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:04,040
Speaker 3: and suddenly being at the Boss level at the end,

1332
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:07,120
Speaker 3: which is just a huge jarring swing for them. And

1333
01:05:07,160 --> 01:05:10,200
Speaker 3: then conference championship round. You want to bet the one

1334
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:13,720
Speaker 3: seed twenty one and five straight up in the last

1335
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 3: two decades winning by ten points a game, including against

1336
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 3: the two seed, which Chicago would be twelve and three

1337
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 3: straight up for the one seed by over ten points

1338
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 3: a game there as well, and all three losses were

1339
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:27,800
Speaker 3: close wild finishes there, so the one seed really has

1340
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 3: been in it all the way. That trend would also

1341
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:33,880
Speaker 3: look pretty good for Broncos home against Patriots. I don't

1342
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 3: mind that one as well. I make Denver over the three,

1343
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:39,600
Speaker 3: but I like Seattle. They've been my top or second

1344
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 3: in my power rankings all season. It's already six and

1345
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:45,160
Speaker 3: a half at DraftKings. Six has been a key this

1346
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:48,400
Speaker 3: year as well. I think this one probably pushes closer

1347
01:05:48,440 --> 01:05:50,720
Speaker 3: to seven. So five and a half I like it.

1348
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 3: I'll grab it in advance. We've done these the last

1349
01:05:53,000 --> 01:05:55,600
Speaker 3: two weeks, and then the game ends up not happening

1350
01:05:55,640 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 3: because one of the teams doesn't come through. But that's

1351
01:05:57,400 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 3: all right. You just get your money back after that.

1352
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 3: Then we can up a different game for next week.

1353
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:04,560
Speaker 3: So Seahawks minus five and a half home against the

1354
01:06:04,600 --> 01:06:07,600
Speaker 3: Bears and a road debut for Caleb in the boss level.

1355
01:06:07,960 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say boss level. It's more like

1356
01:06:09,640 --> 01:06:11,520
Speaker 4: going from rookie to All Madden. So we're going to

1357
01:06:11,560 --> 01:06:13,959
Speaker 4: see if that matchup comes all together there, all right?

1358
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 4: That'll do. Here on the Action Ework podcast for our

1359
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 4: NFL Divisional Round Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If

1360
01:06:19,800 --> 01:06:22,640
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1369
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:46,840
Speaker 4: And again, if you want to tell some of the

1370
01:06:46,880 --> 01:06:48,680
Speaker 4: bets we gave out today, make sure to look for

1371
01:06:48,680 --> 01:06:51,200
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1372
01:06:51,480 --> 01:06:54,720
Speaker 4: Or my favorite way, go to actionework dot com slash bet.

1373
01:06:54,800 --> 01:06:56,960
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01:06:56,960 --> 01:06:59,120
Speaker 4: click it like a quick slip link, open right in

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01:06:59,160 --> 01:07:03,920
Speaker 4: your sportsbook. Absolutely perfect. Thank you for listening, enjoy the slate.

1376
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:06,560
Speaker 4: Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Only a

1377
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:08,600
Speaker 4: few weeks to go, so savor ite wall it's here.

1378
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 1: Thank you, BA have a good one.

1379
01:07:25,320 --> 01:07:28,800
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1380
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1381
01:07:32,320 --> 01:07:34,920
Speaker 3: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1382
01:07:35,000 --> 01:07:35,840
Speaker 3: hundred Gambler