1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 2 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal. Marvin Lowe will 6 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: be with us right now. He's Global macro strategists at 7 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 1: State Street Global Markets. Kaylee lines, why don't you lead 8 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: off with Mr? Lowe? Well, Marvin obviously is Lisa was 9 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: saying that the market is looking for confirmation in this 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,880 Speaker 1: data of a more hawkish, more quickly moving federal reserve. 11 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: Do you think the repricing of those expectations has been 12 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: overblown given the numbers that we're seeing. You know what, 13 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: today's data just confirms that we're moving in the right direction. 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 1: Activity is accelerating to the fourth quarter. UM, that's no 15 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: new news. There. There are hints that the job market 16 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: is UM is pretty good in today's numbers. So it 17 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: really does become that interplay between inflation and jobs. We 18 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 1: know inflation is more than what they want. UM, if 19 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: there are signs that if there are signs that the 20 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 1: job market is going to heal itself faster than let's say, 21 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: the second half of next year. Um, you know, rate 22 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: hikes are gonna be live. But having said that, we're 23 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: already pricing amid two and starting to think about May 24 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: of two. So I don't see how much more we 25 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: can get from an aggressive side of things. And because 26 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 1: I'd probably like that it's getting the market to do 27 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: the tightening for them before they actually have to get 28 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: into the souper nuts there. When can we actually count 29 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: on this data not being noisy? I mean, I'm looking 30 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,639 Speaker 1: right now at initial job with claims and form my data, 31 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: and what it looks like is that this is the 32 00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: lowest claims figure going back in decades. This is what 33 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: seems to be a hot market. And yet, as Michael 34 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: McKee was saying, it could be noisy, it is holiday time. 35 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: At what point can we say, no, this actually reflects reality? 36 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: You know what I think about how this year has evolved. 37 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: Where we started in the beginning of the year, and 38 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:05,559 Speaker 1: we said by the middle of the year we're gonna 39 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: get clean data. Um, and then it was gonna be 40 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: and then it was going to be in the fall 41 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,079 Speaker 1: and that hour at the fall, going into the winter. 42 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,239 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna take until the middle of next 43 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: year before we get a real solid picture of what 44 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: jobs looks like, what prices look like, how these supply 45 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: shocks are are going to make their way out if 46 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: it's gonna have to make some heart decisions based on 47 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: data that's not perfect however, UM, but we've got a 48 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 1: lot of moving parts, and that pricing data is really 49 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: gonna be in flux. Remember that's beautifully said. In around 50 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: all the different opinions we have on Blueberg surveillance, what 51 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: we can say is consensus is ephemeral, to say the least, 52 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: except we still have to invest. What is your investment 53 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: stands given your ambivalence or your wait and see until 54 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,079 Speaker 1: fourth of July two thousand twenty two, We we we 55 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 1: we do have to invest in, and we've got to 56 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: look at what we think the world is gonna like, 57 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 1: in which you know, ultimately companies and economies are going 58 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: to uh to benefit from that. UM. I do think 59 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: that the long end the curve is sending messages the 60 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: fact that you know, whether it's a um A Greenspan 61 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:16,359 Speaker 1: type conundrum or a view that growth becomes dear against 62 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: once we get to the other side of things is 63 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: telling from me. So you know I continue to like 64 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 1: um like the growth aspects of the U S economy. UM, 65 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: I do think yields have remained contained and will remain contain. 66 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: That means that growth is dear, income is dear um 67 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: and globally you look for those environments that can benefit 68 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: from that type of environment. Marvin Little, thank you so much. 69 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: Too short to visit here with all this economic data 70 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: with State Street today, greatly greatly appreciate that what we 71 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: do is speak to experts, and Mike Wilson is uniquely 72 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: qualified at Morgan Stanley to lead their equity coverage. He 73 00:03:55,920 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: does so with some terrific securities analysis is at his 74 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: back in economics of ellen Zner is well, Mike Wilson, 75 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: I want to go to the wonderful Katie Huberty, who's 76 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: looking at hardware in tech. And what Katie Huberty says 77 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: to your cautious call on markets, would everybody calm down. 78 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,119 Speaker 1: Supply is gonna come back and we're gonna get back 79 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: to some normal Why will stocks be quite essent if 80 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: we get back to Katie Huberty is normal? Well, thanks 81 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 1: time and happy Thanksgiving to everyone. Look, I think, well, 82 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: Katie is actually very much in kind of our page. Frankly, 83 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: she's very focused on you know, the you know, the 84 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: supply channels are not going to rectify themselves quickly, and 85 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: there's a chance that we've actually seen some overordering along 86 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: the supply chain, particularly in tech hardware, which is her 87 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: area of coverage, and and and so we're aligned. In fact, 88 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 1: I would say Katie and I are more lined than 89 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: I am with some of the other analysts at the 90 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: Home Company, and that around this idea that we could 91 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 1: have a paymack. As supply comes on, we might see 92 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: some double orderings canceled and that may take a little 93 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: time to digest. So we have I think the supply 94 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: issue now that's pretty obvious. Inflation is the you know, 95 00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: the talk of the day in FETs reacting to that, 96 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: and I think that's appropriate. However, there is a possibility 97 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: that you know, we get into next year and a 98 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 1: supply kind of picks up and we actually see demand curtailed, 99 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: right because we did over consume a lot of things, 100 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: and tech Harbard was one of those areas, and that's 101 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 1: gonna take a little time to work through time, and 102 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons why we think next year 103 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: it's you know, at the index level, we've we've priced 104 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: a lot of good news and it's probably gonna be 105 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: more of a flatish year. Mike Wilson, David will David Wilson, 106 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 1: no relation retiring from Bloomberg here in a bed. Just 107 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: put up a spectacular Christopher on chart which shows Russell 108 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: one thousand versus two thousand. And you know, the lack 109 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: of breadth in this market is part of the Mike 110 00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: Wilson call that big tech will be crushed. Well the 111 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: crush is a strong word, but I mean, look, our 112 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: our big out of consensus call for next year is valuations. 113 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: Then that was you know, someone of our call this 114 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 1: year too, which didn't fully play out because the rates 115 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 1: market backed up again. But now it's moving in the 116 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 1: in the direction that we expected, meaning you know, the 117 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,160 Speaker 1: as the Fed moves towards actually tapering, which they're doing 118 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: now and have to address these higher prices. I think 119 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: we got kind of a you know, an interesting meeting 120 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 1: this week when the when you know, Paul was renominated 121 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: and and of course, uh, you know, BRAINERD was announced 122 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 1: as the vice chair. You know, this FED is going 123 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 1: to take probably a harder stance on what's going on inflation. 124 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: They're gonna they want to show that they're they're not 125 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 1: you know, falling asleep at the switch, and they're doing 126 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: their job. And I think that's what the rates market 127 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 1: is reacting to here. And that's in other words, our 128 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: rates call is gonna end up being you know, rates higher, 129 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,240 Speaker 1: and that's a head wind for evaluations. And that's what's 130 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: happened in the last three or four days. Is that 131 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: the end of the world, as at the end of 132 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: the bowl market. Of course not because the Arty story 133 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 1: is still quite good. But you know, to have peak 134 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: multiples on sort of you know, peak rate of change 135 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: is unusual, and we just think it's taking a little 136 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: bit longer than normal. We think it will happen in 137 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: the first half next year. Multiples come down and then 138 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: we move on our marry way. It's not like I said, 139 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 1: it's not the end of the world, but we have 140 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 1: to we have to deal with higher rates, tighter financial conditions, 141 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: and that means lower multiples overall, and we'll to a 142 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: large cap tech feel that of course, they will just 143 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,880 Speaker 1: like every other stock will what's so interesting about the 144 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: range of forecasts for next year is the disagreement on 145 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: the both the pace of the economic momentum as well 146 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: as the read through into the market. The idea here 147 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 1: that you do think that we're going to see a deceleration, 148 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: but that the FED will still hike rates, and that 149 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: that's still be viewed as a tightening cycle that will 150 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 1: reduce valuations. How do you push back against TV securities 151 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: call that that deceleration in growth will actually keep the 152 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: FED on the sidelines and allow markets to continue to 153 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: grind higher as they prepare for both very easy monetary 154 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: conditions as well as a still robust economy. Well, like 155 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: I mean our health call as well, we assume that 156 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: the FED is going to move more slowly than the 157 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: market on rate hikes. Okay, but the removal of asset 158 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: purchases to you know, basically to zero over the next 159 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: eight months, I think it's pretty naives it suggested that 160 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: won't have some dampening effect on valuations. More importantly, Lisa, 161 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 1: I mean, this is right in line with our mid 162 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: cycle transition call. This is what it always works. So 163 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 1: we've we've written about this for a while, I mean 164 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: eight months talking about how this is very similar to 165 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 1: two thousand four andleven. As the economy recovers, the FED 166 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: is supposed to react to that. That's their job, and 167 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 1: they're going to do their job, and that's the normal progression. 168 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: You get the accelerative part of the recovery. That's great. 169 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: Multiples actually expand at the same time. That's what we've had. 170 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 1: And then as the FED removes policy accommodation, multiples come down. 171 00:08:40,960 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: So you know, the think that that's not going to 172 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 1: play out this cycle. I mean, we're going with the 173 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: odds and that's and and I think that process has begun. 174 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: It was somewhat interrupted in October. We saw evaluations actually 175 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: expand again as rates came down. And also I think 176 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: as you know, we saw the seasonal trade, and then 177 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: once that seasonal trade is over, I think back on 178 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: the path of just multiples coming down, and it could 179 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: be a it could be a modest process. Isn't that 180 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: to all happen at once? You know, we're talking about 181 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: multiples coming down over the next twelve months, So if 182 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: it's gradual, you know, the market will deal and it 183 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: will be so it will be just be sort of 184 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,320 Speaker 1: a chop. I don't think it's gonna be a crash 185 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: or anything like that. That's not what we're calling for 186 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: work and and really the opportunity is going to be 187 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: finding the right things to own within the equity market, 188 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: something that we we spend a lot of time on. 189 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: All Right, so what is it? What do you want 190 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: to own? So right now we're very focused on earning, 191 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: stability and valuation, not surprisingly, and one of the sectors 192 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,679 Speaker 1: that we think has those qualities you know right now 193 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 1: is health care. Health Care is delivering delivering on the 194 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: earnings quite nicely, and it's actually extremely cheap relative to 195 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:46,719 Speaker 1: its history. Uh, and that looks pretty attractive. Real estate 196 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: blye or not reads look attractive in this kind of 197 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: an environment. And we also think financials look good because 198 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 1: you know, they should do better as race smooth higher 199 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: and they're cheap. So those are three sectors who are 200 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: recommending right now. Mike Wilson, thank you so much for 201 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: joining us, particularly on this whole day Wednesday, Mike Wilson 202 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:08,400 Speaker 1: and Morgan Stanley. What is known is at the Royal 203 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: Bank of Canada with a terrific research team including Thomas Porcelli, 204 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,440 Speaker 1: rights in Kings English. The only one who does not 205 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 1: is Amy Wu Silverman. It's Greek to you, It's Greek 206 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: to me and trusted, it's in the Greek letters of 207 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: the derivative space as well. We're thrilled to Amy, we'll 208 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: could join us uh this morning. Amy I, I look 209 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 1: at where you are and I want you to dovetail 210 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: it right into Lori Calvacina's constructive call on the market. 211 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: When you look at skew, crtosis and the rest of 212 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: the options dynamics, what does it mean for Lorie Calvacina, 213 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: our listeners and viewers. Yeah, it's a great question. And 214 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: you know, Lori and I talk a lot about you 215 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: know what her O marching equities views look like in 216 00:10:52,400 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: terms of the derivatives market, and I will tell you 217 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: the I W M in flying volatility and skew. You 218 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: know your favorite term. Tom has been dovetailing with what 219 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: Laurie has been saying, which is that we will see 220 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: a second leg up in that smid slash value section. 221 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: And you see that in the derivatives market with a 222 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,719 Speaker 1: skew much more flat or bullish than you do in 223 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 1: something like the large cap tech growth area. Amy I 224 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: don't speak Greek, but I am looking at what could 225 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:21,680 Speaker 1: be potentially some froth being pushed out of the market 226 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: in select areas. I'm thinking particular particularly of the software 227 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: and internet stocks that were the Darling's. In the wake 228 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 1: of the pandemic, we saw hedge funds really pile into 229 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: those trades even as they climbed higher and higher. And 230 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: now we're seeing the likes of Zoom and others really 231 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: get punctured by reality, by the slowdown in their growth. 232 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: How much is this indicative of broader froth that's being 233 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: punched out of the market as people sort of realize 234 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: that we're in a new territory with a FED perhaps 235 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 1: as accommodative. Yeah, luckily soa you know, when you want froth, 236 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: you've definitely come to the options market. You know, it's 237 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: just been the home of momentum, of this kind of 238 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: crazy retail call buying. Uh. You know, yesterday the options 239 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: market woke up. In my opinion, we've been talking a 240 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: long time about how that's kew in the queues was 241 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,239 Speaker 1: really not that expensive. People were really not focused on downside, 242 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,560 Speaker 1: despite you know what we know about rates ahead and 243 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: that changed yesterday. We saw a pretty dramatic shift in hedging. 244 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 1: We saw a lot of the conques both through year 245 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: end and through next year, and that skew indicators starting 246 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: to move. It's becoming more bearished, which really makes sense 247 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: in the context of you know what we know Pal 248 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: has to do in the coming year. Well, Amy, in 249 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 1: a world where everything seems to be getting more expensive, 250 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:39,920 Speaker 1: is it going to keep getting more expensive to hedge? 251 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: I think so, you know, and we've been kind of 252 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: banging the drum for a while saying, look, it's been 253 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: so cheap to hedge. Does anyone want to hedge? And 254 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 1: you know, the answer has been no. And I always 255 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: feel like, you know, people need to see a shoe 256 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: to drop before they think about it. And of course, 257 00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 1: when that happens, your hedging is going to become more expensive. 258 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: Your vix as prob we're going to cross that twenty 259 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,079 Speaker 1: psychological barrier. But that is when people are going to 260 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: start looking at it. Yeah, okay, Well, if I'm looking 261 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: to hedge while it's still more cheap, where do I 262 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: do it? Amy? Yeah? You know one, uh, I I 263 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,119 Speaker 1: guess I call it like the dirty little secret of finances. 264 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: People love to use I w M. QES and spy right, 265 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: because that's what everyone else uses. That's what you benchmark two. 266 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: But if you look to xcel C, the SMP Communications 267 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 1: et F, it has about a nine percent correlation on 268 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: a five year realized basis to NASSAC to the cues, 269 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 1: and it has a lot of the same names. It 270 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: has your Netflix, it has your Facebook, has your Twitter, 271 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: and you know it could be an interesting one because 272 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: that implied volatility level is very inexpensive on a relative 273 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: basis compared to cues. But it's just as good as 274 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,959 Speaker 1: a tailhage if you see those growth head winds common 275 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: any very quickly here. Unfortunately, what do the bears get wrong? 276 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:59,439 Speaker 1: I think there's, especially for derivatives people, there's this case 277 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: to be made of what a tail looks cheap. You 278 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: just feel like you have to own it, not necessarily 279 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: because you think the probability is higher, Tom, but just 280 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 1: because you know you're in a world when you think 281 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 1: about things from the bang for the buck of that tail. 282 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: I think that's what bears get wrong. When they see 283 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: tales that cheap, they ask why is it that cheap? Um? 284 00:14:17,080 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 1: And sometimes it's that cheap because things are good Amy, 285 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,160 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Jamie was Silverman there equity drew 286 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: of his RBC, a capital market doctor and Say Joins, 287 00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: associate professor of emergency medicine at Johns Hopkins back to 288 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: the chief executive officer of a major pharmaceutical company just 289 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 1: stated that this is trending towards endemic, which basically to 290 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 1: amateurs like me, says all clear. Are we all clear 291 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: on COVID? Absolutely not all Claire, absolutely not an endemic. Okay, 292 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 1: well that's a it's radio and TV back. You've got 293 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: to give a longer answer, because I don't have two 294 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: good questions. If it's not endemic, what is it? The 295 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 1: leader of New Zealand came out overnight and said, you know, 296 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: we still have a challenge here and a problem. We 297 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: all know each and every story. How far are we 298 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: from what the CEO of Astra Zeneca was talking about. 299 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,560 Speaker 1: So we're still in the midst of a pandemic, which 300 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: means we still don't quite know how to overcome the 301 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 1: current virgin or disease from the from the virus. UM. 302 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: There's still daily deaths, still daily resource limitations. UM. We 303 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: have some strategies that we know to be effective, such 304 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 1: as social distancing, fascinating, but that has proven to be 305 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: not enough. Also, the virus will continue to evolve UM. 306 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: We don't know when that's going to happen. We've been 307 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: very fortunate so far. It's been a couple of months 308 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: since Delta much UM, but that's something to look out for. 309 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 1: We am. I'm a little bit concerned as I looked 310 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: the numbers dr An Sati. It looks like even in 311 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: areas where there's high vaccination rates, you're seeing surges in 312 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: the number of cases. I'm thinking of South Korea in particular, 313 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: with seventy of the adult population with both shots of vaccine, 314 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: and yet you're seeing the highest number of cases diagnosed 315 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: going back since the start of the pandemic. Does this 316 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:13,480 Speaker 1: indicate that the vaccines are less effective than we thought 317 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 1: they were? So? I don't think it indicates that the 318 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: vaccines are less effective. Remember, testing is also going up. 319 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: We're more likely to test routinely prior to big events UM, 320 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: prior to going to work. In many situations, UM mortality 321 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: hasn't gone up. Hospitalizations are lagging behind. The vaccines are 322 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: definitely effective. I think human behavior plays a big part 323 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 1: in this virus and what we're seeing in the North 324 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: and the Midwest is that it is getting colder, people 325 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: are going indoors, people are feeling more confident because they're vaccinating, 326 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: Their behavior has changed, and all of that together is 327 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: leading to these surges. How concerning is that for a 328 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: place like Detroit, Michigan, where you can see that the 329 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 1: percent of cases it's down about six hundred per a 330 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 1: hundred thousand individuals getting diagnosed with COVID, you're seeing the 331 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 1: people in the I c used about of them have 332 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 1: not been vaccinated. How concerning is this that we're seeing 333 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,959 Speaker 1: the surge right ahead of the winter months, right ahead 334 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving, right ahead of what everyone gets into a 335 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,920 Speaker 1: small room and breeze on each other. Absolutely, So the 336 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: concern is that the number of cases is perhaps the 337 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: tip of the iceberg, and which means that a large 338 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: number of patients will still have asymptomatic infection with vaccinated individuals. 339 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 1: That iceberg has gone from this to this, which means 340 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: there's a higher proportion of asymptomatic individuals because people are 341 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 1: not use a vaccine, you're not mounting the symptoms or 342 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: getting us sick um. The challenges is that say, if 343 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,120 Speaker 1: you were to travel to Michigan for the holidays, then 344 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: the airports, um staying at a hotel. There is all 345 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 1: of these opportunities for getting sick. Dr Hernsanti, I feel 346 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: like I've asked this question many times throughout the pandemic, 347 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: and each time it's proven that in fact, there aren't 348 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,360 Speaker 1: enough people with natural immunity, or not an enough people 349 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: who are vaccinated in order for the case curve to 350 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: be prohibited from climbing dramatically upward. Are we getting closer 351 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: though to that point, yes, I think Hostler just would 352 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 1: have been much higher, given the fact that children are 353 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: in schools, workers resumed as normal for many individuals, and 354 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: people are traveling again, taking vacations again. I think if 355 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 1: the vaccines some inherent immunity UM, we would have had 356 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: much higher searches UM and would have been right where 357 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 1: we were six months ago. Bacty, thank you so much, 358 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: Blacky and Son. He greatly appreciate it. With Johns Hopkins, 359 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 1: it's an annual visit and always pointed because no one 360 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 1: has changed American travel in the last decade than Brian 361 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 1: Kelly long agoing far away, Young James Gorman and Morgan 362 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 1: Stanley would call up even younger Kelly and say, Brian 363 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: fixed my computer and he went off and left Morgan 364 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: Stanley and completely changed the travel business in this nation 365 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: with the points guy. You all know the website, the 366 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,959 Speaker 1: forty seven charge cards. Just I'm pleased to tell you 367 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: up in advance, Brian's going to Ecuador for forty seven 368 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: cents here in a weekend. Well, his year world change, 369 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 1: Brian because of the pitch battle and the credit card 370 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 1: world between the traditional guys Clarina a firm and the rest. 371 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 1: Is it business as usual for you this Thanksgiving holiday? Yeah? 372 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,080 Speaker 1: You know the Karna and A firm, those payment firms, 373 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 1: they're not really impacting the customer that we're talking to, 374 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: the high end travel consumer. You know what has impacted that. 375 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: It used to just be Amex, and it was Amex 376 00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 1: and Chase. Now we're seeing Capital One just launched a 377 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 1: venture X card to kind of combat that Sapphire reserve. 378 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:46,679 Speaker 1: So there's so much happening in that premium credit card space, 379 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: and it's good for consumers because the bonuses are out 380 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: of control and your free time. I want you to 381 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,199 Speaker 1: bring a seven forty seven back to British Air. But 382 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: what I see Brian as we changed in the pandemic. 383 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: Is the airlines are really going after the loyal customers. 384 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 1: Will that sustain when this horrific pandemic is over? You know, 385 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 1: I think you know, they extended loyalty, They've certainly been 386 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: very friendly, you know, not expiring miles. But what they 387 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: really need to change is the in flight product. I 388 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:21,880 Speaker 1: flew Barcelona to to Newark the other day, and there's yeah, 389 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I couldn't shouldn't complain too much, 390 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,680 Speaker 1: but I can pay for tickets from time to time. 391 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 1: But I do think that the airlines need those premium 392 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: business travelers and they need to reinvest in their product. 393 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:33,760 Speaker 1: They can't just keep saying because of COVID, we can't 394 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: give you anything but slop for a meal on a plane. 395 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: So I do think they need to reinvest in service. Well, 396 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: because of COVID is you know something you add to 397 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: a lot of different sentences these days. Obviously, this holiday 398 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: season of COVID times looks a lot different than last 399 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: holiday season. Does. How is that playing out in terms 400 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:55,240 Speaker 1: of people's desire to travel? You know, I think the 401 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: system is fragile, to say the least. We've seen meltdowns 402 00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: from Southwest in American air lines. But luckily, so far 403 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: this week things are good, you know, no major storm issues. 404 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 1: People are traveling in record numbers, more than twice as 405 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: many that as last year. People are excited to travel again. 406 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 1: And you know, we just heard this morning New Zealand 407 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 1: is going to open up in April after nearly two 408 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: years or more than two years, actually being blocked. So 409 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 1: I think travel is going to continue increasing. We're gonna 410 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: see these surges, you know that we're seeing now. But 411 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 1: you know, I think for the vaccinated traveler there's gonna 412 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,719 Speaker 1: be more options than ever. And I think consumers are 413 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 1: ready to get back on the road. Brian, we talked 414 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: a lot about the high consumer savings rate because people, 415 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:35,719 Speaker 1: you know, got a lot of stimulus because of the pandemic. 416 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: They saved a lot of money, they just weren't spending it. 417 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 1: Do people just have like a vast trove of points 418 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: ready to deploy or have they already started deploying it? No, absolutely, 419 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: there are so many points. It's it's hard to tell 420 00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: because the banks don't report how many outstanding points they 421 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,000 Speaker 1: have exactly, but there's a huge amount, and you know, 422 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 1: the banks are actually now allowing you to use those 423 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: points for non travel use apple products. Yeah. Yeah, this 424 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: this day, you can get away luggage using your Chase points. 425 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: So they're trying more and more ways for people to 426 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: use them since they're not traveling as much as they 427 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 1: were in the past. Um. But I think what we're 428 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,920 Speaker 1: seeing too is that people are traveling longer and they're 429 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,160 Speaker 1: spending more on travel, especially because they can work from 430 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 1: abroad now, so a lot of people are spending a 431 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 1: couple of weeks working and traveling abroad. So that's the 432 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:21,399 Speaker 1: key trend that I think it's going to be a 433 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 1: boon for the travel industry. They're gonna see longer and 434 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 1: more expensive stays and flights, you know, as travel continues 435 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: to recover. Brian Mr Capiano, Marriott and Marriott bo Envoy 436 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 1: Dark in the Door recently enjoying the show. And you know, 437 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:38,720 Speaker 1: the hotel people have been through an absolute nightmare. What 438 00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: is the distinction between airline the points guy cards in 439 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 1: a hotel the points Guys cards? You know, the hotel 440 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 1: cards have gotten really good and that you get so 441 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: many perks. You know, for a card, you get a 442 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: free night at a hotel. It's very easy to get 443 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 1: value back on those hotel branding cards. I think where 444 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: consumers are frustrating with hotels in general is that because 445 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 1: of COVID, we can't offer you all of these services 446 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 1: we're going to charge you. Some hotels charge a hundred 447 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: fifty dollars just on a resort fee. You know, we 448 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,359 Speaker 1: on some of the luxury hotels, which is blowney considering 449 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: you don't get half of those services. So I think 450 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 1: what the hotels industry is gonna have to reconcile is 451 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,479 Speaker 1: with the staffing issues they're having. You know, rates are 452 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 1: up there, making money, but consumers are getting more and 453 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:24,479 Speaker 1: more agitated with paying for bowl service and not getting it. 454 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: And that's why Airbnb has seen huge increases over the 455 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: pandemic well in terms of agitation for paying more. Brian, 456 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 1: I have the Chase Sapphire Reserve card and I get 457 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 1: a lot out of it, don't get me wrong, but 458 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 1: I also have to pay more for it. It seems 459 00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: every year it gets more expensive to have that credit card. 460 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:41,439 Speaker 1: Is that the trend that as you see more of 461 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: these card companies competing with each other in those types 462 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: of cards, it's just going to get more and more 463 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: expensive to have it absolutely, But you know, American Express 464 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,639 Speaker 1: Platinum raised its rates, but they reported amazing success with it. 465 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 1: You know, consumers do want to feel like they're part 466 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: of something that they get a lot of value out 467 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: of um. So you know, emium credit cards aren't going 468 00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 1: away anytime soon. Even that new Capital one card, the 469 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: venture xcept launch that has a pretty hepthy feed. But 470 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: it's so easy. I urge people don't get a no 471 00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: fee card just because there's no fee. As my dad said, 472 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,000 Speaker 1: cheap as expensive. There's no fee cards. You're a good consumer, 473 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,639 Speaker 1: You're not mean. You can easily get way more value 474 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 1: back by getting a card with the annual fee. You 475 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: just got to do the math. Brian, I'm not going 476 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,399 Speaker 1: to mince words. You change my life. Until you came along, 477 00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: I was looking at you know, fancy pants business class 478 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,160 Speaker 1: travel and you know, frankly, folks, if you just do 479 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 1: what Kelly says, it actually works for the new year 480 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: for our listeners and viewers. What's the number one way 481 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 1: to affect cheaper travel? Well, the number one thing is, 482 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 1: you know, collect your points and and understand how many 483 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 1: points you have. You know, we just long points guy 484 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 1: app where you can track all of your loyalty points 485 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: in one place will even give you your net worth 486 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 1: in points. And I think people don't realize how much 487 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 1: value they have sitting around in these loyalty points. And 488 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,719 Speaker 1: my number one tip is use them. Uh you know, 489 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 1: the airlines let you change your if you use it 490 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,919 Speaker 1: freaking fire miles, you can. You have more flexibility than 491 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 1: if you buy a paid ticket. So use your miles 492 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,720 Speaker 1: and point. Did you once fly from New York, New 493 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 1: York JFK to Heathrow and they paid you to take 494 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: the trip? Did you actually do that? No? I mean 495 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: so I will always you know, even when I use miles, uh, 496 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 1: you know there, I always have to pay taxes and 497 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: fees and at the points guy, we don't take free 498 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: you from the airlines. We we we pay, but you 499 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: know we don't definitely get a good deal when I travel. 500 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 1: I'm shocked. Bryan Kelly, thank you so much with the 501 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: points guys, truly, all the Internet and dot com people, 502 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:43,199 Speaker 1: He's changed our lives more than any This is the 503 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays 504 00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg Radio and 505 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg television each day from six to nine am 506 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and 507 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 1: Internet national relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 508 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on 509 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,679 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg.