WEBVTT - How India and Pakistan Averted War

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Tensions between India and Pakistan that threatened to boil over

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<v Speaker 2>during the weekend have now settled back to a simmer.

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<v Speaker 2>The two countries have been striking at targets inside each

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<v Speaker 2>other's borders since last Wednesday. It's the worst fighting between

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<v Speaker 2>these two nuclear powers in half a century. But now

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<v Speaker 2>they appear to have reached a fragile truce.

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<v Speaker 1>So what you saw with this conflict was really the

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<v Speaker 1>closest that India and Pakistan have come to it all

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<v Speaker 1>at war since possibly the nineteen seventies.

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<v Speaker 2>Dan Strump is a Bloomberg senior reporter based in India's

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<v Speaker 2>capital of New Delhi. He says the hostilities are the

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<v Speaker 2>latest phase of a long standing territorial dispute over the

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<v Speaker 2>border region of Jammu and Kashmir.

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<v Speaker 1>It's one of the most contested regions the world. Really,

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<v Speaker 1>Both India and Pakistan have claimed this region as their

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<v Speaker 1>own going back to the time of independence.

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<v Speaker 2>But what might look to outsiders like a regional issue

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<v Speaker 2>has serious international implications. Both Indian and Pakistan are nuclear powers.

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<v Speaker 2>India's one of the world's largest economies and the most populous.

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<v Speaker 2>Then there's China, which has been working to grow its

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<v Speaker 2>influence in the region. These factors appear to have drawn

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<v Speaker 2>in the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump surprised the

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<v Speaker 2>world by announcing a ceasefire in a social media post

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<v Speaker 2>over the weekend, but not everyone's happy about that. The

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<v Speaker 2>surprise announcement may have upstaged Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a real sort of sense of dismay and anger

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<v Speaker 1>that you see among Indian politicians and ordinary Indians as well.

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<v Speaker 1>This really throws a ranch in Modi's political standing right

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<v Speaker 1>now in India.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha.

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<v Speaker 2>Every week we take you inside some of the world's

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<v Speaker 2>biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and

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<v Speaker 2>businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show,

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<v Speaker 2>a conversation between Rebecca Chung Wilkins and Bloomberg reporter Dan

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<v Speaker 2>Strump about the increasingly intense conflict between India and Pakistan,

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<v Speaker 2>how the conflict changed in recent days, and the roles

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<v Speaker 2>the US and China have been playing in the background.

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<v Speaker 3>India said that it has conducted military strikes in Pakistan

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<v Speaker 3>and Pakistan, on the other hand, said they have downed

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<v Speaker 3>five Indian fighter jet planes and this is an escalation

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<v Speaker 3>of the two nuclear armed nations. The tensions have been

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<v Speaker 3>similar for the last few days ever since twenty six

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<v Speaker 3>people were killed.

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<v Speaker 4>Dan, Hello, it's been a very busy few weeks for you.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been very busy for all of us here in

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<v Speaker 1>India and Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 4>And I want to get straight into the conflict and

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<v Speaker 4>what's been keeping you so busy.

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<v Speaker 1>So the current conflict goes back about three weeks on

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<v Speaker 1>April twenty second, to a terrible attack that took place

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<v Speaker 1>in Indian Administered Kashmir in a region known as Pahalgam,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a sort of beautiful mountainous meadow region in Kashmir.

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<v Speaker 1>A large group of tourists were vacationing in the meadow

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<v Speaker 1>and armed gunmen came out of the forest and gunned

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<v Speaker 1>down twenty six people. All of them were civilians, mostly tourists,

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<v Speaker 1>mostly Indians. So in the immediate aftermath of this event,

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<v Speaker 1>India very quickly blamed Pakistan for the disaster in Kashmir.

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<v Speaker 1>Pakistan very quickly denied any involvement.

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<v Speaker 4>And where exactly is Kashmir? Because geography really matters.

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<v Speaker 1>In this case, geography does really matter. So Kashmir is

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<v Speaker 1>a large region that sits on the northern tip of

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<v Speaker 1>India bordering Pakistan, and it's about the size of the UK.

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<v Speaker 1>It's one of the most contested regions in the world. Really,

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<v Speaker 1>Both India and Pakistan have claimed this region as their

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<v Speaker 1>own going back to the time of independence.

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<v Speaker 4>And dan, how did Kashmir become so contentious between India

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<v Speaker 4>and Pakistan?

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<v Speaker 1>So the conflict essentially dates back to the independence of

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<v Speaker 1>both countries from the British in nineteen forty seven. The

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<v Speaker 1>British colonial administration essentially left the region in a hurry,

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<v Speaker 1>leaving a whole host of territorial disputes unresolved, and the

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<v Speaker 1>most front dispute of all came to be Kashmir, and

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<v Speaker 1>Kashmir became this sort of touching off point for the

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<v Speaker 1>very first war that the two countries fought immediately after independence,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's been a source of multiple wars over the

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<v Speaker 1>years ever since.

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<v Speaker 4>How did we see the two sides respond in the

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<v Speaker 4>immediate aftermath of this event, So.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about two weeks of posturing. Nothing really happened until

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<v Speaker 1>about a week ago when India announced that it had

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<v Speaker 1>undertaken a series of air strikes on the Pakistani side

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<v Speaker 1>of Kashmir. Pakistan responded with its own strikes. The two

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<v Speaker 1>sides traded artillery fire, small arms fire, and eventually missile

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<v Speaker 1>fire and drone and aircraft attacks were involved as well

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<v Speaker 1>on both sides.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, So that was the military response we've seen from

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<v Speaker 4>the two sides. Were there any changes in terms of

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<v Speaker 4>diplomacy and policymaking.

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<v Speaker 1>So in addition to military strikes, India suspended what's known

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<v Speaker 1>as the Indus Waters Treaty, which is a treaty that

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<v Speaker 1>essentially governs the use of the Indus River and its

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<v Speaker 1>vast number of tributaries. It's so essential to both of

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<v Speaker 1>these countries their reliance on the water that comes from

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<v Speaker 1>this vast sort of river basin. After India suspended this treaty,

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<v Speaker 1>that really raised the fears that the flow of water

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<v Speaker 1>from India to Pakistan, which lies downstream from India, could

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<v Speaker 1>be under threat. And what Pakistan said very quickly after

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<v Speaker 1>the suspension of this treaty was that if its waterflow

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<v Speaker 1>is threatened, it would treat that as an act of war.

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<v Speaker 4>You mentioned that Kashmir is a region no stranger to

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<v Speaker 4>conflicts and skirmishes. So we've seen violence throughout the two

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<v Speaker 4>thousands and further escalations in twenty nineteen. How is this

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<v Speaker 4>time different from what we've seen in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's important for us to point out that

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw in the last week or so is

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<v Speaker 1>far from the sort of full blown wars that defined

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<v Speaker 1>the conflicts that took place in the last century. Over Kashmir,

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<v Speaker 1>what we saw was a major escalation in violence in

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<v Speaker 1>comparison to what we've seen in recent decades. This conflict

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<v Speaker 1>hit much closer to populated civilian areas, hit much closer

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<v Speaker 1>to some of the locations of some of the highest

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<v Speaker 1>levels of government, at least on the Pakistani side. On

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<v Speaker 1>the military side, you saw air skirmishes taking place outside

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<v Speaker 1>of Kashmir along the conventional border between Pakistan and India.

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<v Speaker 1>You saw artillery fire traded on both sides. You saw

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<v Speaker 1>the introduction of new types of weaponry, things like Kamikazi drones,

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese made fighter jets on the Pakistani side, French made

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<v Speaker 1>fighter jets on the Indian side. What several people have

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<v Speaker 1>told us is essentially this conflict resets rules of the

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<v Speaker 1>game it expands the theater around which future conflicts might

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<v Speaker 1>take place and also expands the range of weaponry that

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<v Speaker 1>might be involved.

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<v Speaker 4>Now, tell us about the ceasefire. When did it happen

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<v Speaker 4>and how was it actually reached.

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<v Speaker 1>So, this ceasefire as we know it came over really

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<v Speaker 1>just the course of a few hours of phone calls

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<v Speaker 1>starting from the White House on Friday and Saturday and

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<v Speaker 1>into the weekend. And those phone calls took place between

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<v Speaker 1>Marco Rubio and Vice President Jade Vance and a number

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<v Speaker 1>of high level players on the both Indian and Pakistani side.

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<v Speaker 1>What took everybody by surprise was Trump's post on truth

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<v Speaker 1>Social on Saturday morning in Washington Saturday afternoon here announcing

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<v Speaker 1>that a ceasefire had taken place and it was a

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<v Speaker 1>done deal.

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<v Speaker 2>After the break, Rebecca and Dan talk about India's reaction

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<v Speaker 2>to the Truth and to Trump's announcement, and what role

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<v Speaker 2>China is playing in this conflict. India and Pakistan aren't

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<v Speaker 2>the only countries disputing control of Kashmir. China claims a

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<v Speaker 2>part of the region as well, and as a conflict

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<v Speaker 2>between India and Pakistan unfolded in the back of everyone's minds,

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<v Speaker 2>have been the ongoing trade negotiations that both China and

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<v Speaker 2>India are conducting with the US. Meanwhile, the US approach

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<v Speaker 2>to the tensions between India and Pakistan has been inconsistent.

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<v Speaker 2>Last week, Vice President J. D Vance told Fox News

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<v Speaker 2>that the conflict was quote fundamentally none of our business.

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<v Speaker 2>Then Trump surprised everyone over the weekend by announcing a ceasefire.

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<v Speaker 2>On social media, Rebecca Chung Wilkins asked Bloomberg's Dan Strump

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<v Speaker 2>how each side is reacting to foreign intervention.

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<v Speaker 1>Each side views the prospect of foreign intervention in the

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<v Speaker 1>su conflict a little bit differently. On the Indian side,

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<v Speaker 1>there has been a very deep seated resistance to any

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<v Speaker 1>foreign intervention in the Kashmir conflict. India have used this

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<v Speaker 1>conflict as an issue between Pakistan and India to be

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<v Speaker 1>sorted out bilaterally. And this is a position that goes

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<v Speaker 1>back decades now, and that in some part is because

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<v Speaker 1>India has viewed foreign intervention and foreign mediation in this

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<v Speaker 1>conflict as being something that might be sympathetic to Pakistan.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Indian side is finding it hard to

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<v Speaker 1>not see this as having lost some ground in a

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<v Speaker 1>way by especially being backed into accepting some kind of

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<v Speaker 1>US role in any kind of ceasepire that is now

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<v Speaker 1>taking hold. So in that sense, there's a real sort

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<v Speaker 1>of sense of dismay and anger that you see among

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<v Speaker 1>Indian politicians and ordinary Indians as well.

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<v Speaker 4>And conversely, how is the US's involvement viewed by Pakistan Now?

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<v Speaker 1>Pakistan, of course, has taken the opposite perspective. It wants

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<v Speaker 1>foreign intervention in this conflict. It wants foreign brokerage and

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<v Speaker 1>foreign mediation and has sought as much in various forums

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<v Speaker 1>around the world, including the United Nation, the Organization of

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<v Speaker 1>Islamic Cooperation, and directly appealing to third party countries as

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<v Speaker 1>well for mediation in this conflict. There's a real sense

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<v Speaker 1>of jubilation and that by bringing in a third party

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<v Speaker 1>like the United States this broker a ceasefire, that this

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<v Speaker 1>is a real victory for Pakistan. And now the two

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<v Speaker 1>sides have future issues to discuss, and there's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be third parties mediating and potentially laying a roadmap for

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<v Speaker 1>conversations that could take place over well who knows how long.

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<v Speaker 4>Now. One of the reasons why the US felt like

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<v Speaker 4>they had to intervene was because they were worried that

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<v Speaker 4>things could take a term for the worst if neither

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<v Speaker 4>side ended up de escalating. Can you tell us why

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<v Speaker 4>the US was so concerned about a full scale war

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<v Speaker 4>breaking out in this part of the world.

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<v Speaker 1>So this conflict for decades now has taken place against

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<v Speaker 1>the backdrop of possible nuclear weapons use. Both countries have

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons. India maintains a no first strike rule. Pakistan

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<v Speaker 1>is ambiguous on how it might or might not use

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapons. At the same time, is a very strong

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<v Speaker 1>incentive for neither country to push the conflict too far.

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<v Speaker 1>It's also a reason why you do see foreign powers

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<v Speaker 1>who might not otherwise be welcome or have any business

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<v Speaker 1>in this conflict stick their nose in, like we just

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<v Speaker 1>saw in just the last couple of day. So it

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<v Speaker 1>really is the greatest fear that underlies this whole conflict.

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<v Speaker 4>So we're speaking on Monday, May the twelfth. Now, what

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<v Speaker 4>are the economic implications for both countries if the ceasefire

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't hold.

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<v Speaker 1>Pakistan remains mired in a real economic crisis and is

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<v Speaker 1>in the midst of trying to obtain access to I

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<v Speaker 1>think around seven billion dollars worth of loans from the

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<v Speaker 1>International Monetary Fund and it badly needs that money. Now.

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<v Speaker 1>On the Indian side, this conflict really was not a

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<v Speaker 1>priority of the last couple of years for India anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>India was under the impression that it was largely not

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<v Speaker 1>quite settled, but a conflict that was more or less

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<v Speaker 1>under control and wasn't really at risk of flaring up again.

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<v Speaker 1>And so as a result, you had India really turning

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<v Speaker 1>its attention elsewhere. Mody had really spent a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>time in the last couple of years trying to bolster

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<v Speaker 1>relationships with Europe within the lease, of course, with the US,

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<v Speaker 1>and arguably the most pressing item on Modi's international agenda

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<v Speaker 1>was negotiating a trade deal with the US until this

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<v Speaker 1>conflict broke out. And on the date that the conflict

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<v Speaker 1>broke out, Mody was actually hosting Vice President JD. Vance

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<v Speaker 1>in India, where the two talked about a number of things,

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<v Speaker 1>but talked about this trade deal that the two countries

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<v Speaker 1>are trying to hammer out. It's been a real distraction,

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<v Speaker 1>you could say, for both sides, which is probably a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good incentive for the two to also hold the

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire and try to put the conflict behind them, at.

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<v Speaker 4>Least for now you mentioned Vice President JD. Vance was

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<v Speaker 4>in India during the Kashmir attack. He visited India actually

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<v Speaker 4>with his family and dined with Prime Minister Modi at

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<v Speaker 4>his residence, and last week he said that the conflict

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<v Speaker 4>was fundamentally none of the US's business, but that then

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<v Speaker 4>did appear to change. So how should we see the

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<v Speaker 4>US in this relationship. Do you see the US taking

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<v Speaker 4>a back seat if this co develops further, or do

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<v Speaker 4>you see it taking a more interventionist role from here?

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<v Speaker 1>It's hard to see how the US, how the Trump

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<v Speaker 1>administration can take a backseat. Now after all of the

0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.600
<v Speaker 1>sort of tweets and posts and proclamations online, I think

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:17.160
<v Speaker 1>the US has fully inserted itself into this conflict, whether

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:22.239
<v Speaker 1>it wants to be or not. And that is potentially

0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:25.480
<v Speaker 1>a problem for the US and for the Trump White House,

0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 1>which is really stretching itself as it tries to play

0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:32.440
<v Speaker 1>peacemaker in all these different conflicts around the world. Trump,

0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.480
<v Speaker 1>of course, pledged from day one to solve the Ukraine

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:39.560
<v Speaker 1>Russia conflict that's still ongoing. The conflict in Gaza is

0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>still ongoing, and now you've got Trump sticking his nose

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 1>into this conflict as well. You know, now it remains

0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>to be seen what shape exactly this purported US mediation

0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:55.400
<v Speaker 1>is going to take. And as I said, a lot

0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 1>of people on the Indian side have really just rejected

0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.480
<v Speaker 1>the idea of US intervention at all. So we'll just

0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 1>have to see exactly how this looks.

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 4>And what about China, who has been such a supporter

0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 4>of Pakistan, where do you see its role potentially in

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:11.200
<v Speaker 4>this dynamic.

0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.640
<v Speaker 1>China has been one of those countries that from the

0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:17.920
<v Speaker 1>beginning has been calling for both sides to de escalate,

0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.360
<v Speaker 1>but it's also made very clear that it is on

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the side of Pakistan in this dispute, and that backing

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.400
<v Speaker 1>has really increased in the last couple of years in

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.080
<v Speaker 1>the form of foreign investment in weapons sales as well.

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 1>And you saw the introduction of some of that on

0:16:32.000 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>the battlefield in just the last couple of days. And

0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's a real complicating factor for India because

0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:41.800
<v Speaker 1>India and China don't get along. India Pakistan don't get along,

0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:45.120
<v Speaker 1>the US and China don't get along, and now you

0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 1>have the US in India increasingly getting along. So this

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 1>is very quickly turning into a sort of However, many

0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.120
<v Speaker 1>ways fight in this part of the world, so it

0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:57.360
<v Speaker 1>does make the world look, at least on the margin,

0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:01.680
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more risky and a little bit more dangerous.

0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:04.320
<v Speaker 4>Dan, thank you so much for making time, Thanks for

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:04.920
<v Speaker 4>joining us.

0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much.

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.280
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm

0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.520
<v Speaker 2>wan ha. This episode was produced by Young Young and

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:18.600
<v Speaker 2>Naomi mm. It was edited by Patty Hirsch and Daniel

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 2>tan Cap and fact check by Bloomberg's editorial team. It

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 2>was mixed and sound designed by Alex Suguiera. Our senior

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:28.840
<v Speaker 2>producer is Naomi Shaven. Our senior editor is Elizabeth Ponzo.

0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:33.560
<v Speaker 2>Our deputy executive producer is Julia Weaver. Our executive producer

0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 2>is Nicole Beemster Bower. Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts.

0:17:37.680 --> 0:17:40.320
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