WEBVTT - Hunting For the Virus in Sewage

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day thirty since

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story scientists

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<v Speaker 1>need to find out where the novel coronavirus is spreading

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<v Speaker 1>in order to have any hope of containing it. So far,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the strategies to detect community spread have

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<v Speaker 1>focused on widespread testing, but a group of environmental scientists

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<v Speaker 1>has discovered another potentially effective way to trace the virus

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<v Speaker 1>by hunting in sewers. But first, here's what happened today.

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<v Speaker 1>A message about the virus is emerging from many corners

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<v Speaker 1>of the world social distancing works. Some countries are showing

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<v Speaker 1>early signs of flattening the curve, keeping infections from rising

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<v Speaker 1>to a sharp peak. That has encouraged some European countries

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<v Speaker 1>and the White House to start making plans to reopen

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<v Speaker 1>the economy. But health officials are clear, if we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>fewer infections than we thought, it's because of lockdown measures,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's still too early to let our guard down.

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<v Speaker 1>In the US, top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci predicted

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<v Speaker 1>the country will see half the number of deaths than

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<v Speaker 1>some of the most dire predictions had shown. That's still

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<v Speaker 1>a staggering sixty thousand deaths just over a week ago,

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<v Speaker 1>though the White House had suggested as many as two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and forty thousand could die as a result of

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<v Speaker 1>the outbreak. In another sign there might be light at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the tunnel, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo

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<v Speaker 1>said Thursday that there had only been two hundred new

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalizations over twenty four hours. That number had been as

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<v Speaker 1>high as fourteen hun tread just a week ago. Likewise,

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<v Speaker 1>the rate of new intensive care admissions and intubations where

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<v Speaker 1>patients are put on a ventilator, also plummeted. Meanwhile, the

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<v Speaker 1>outbreak continues to take its grim toll on the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Six point six million people applied for unemployment benefits last week.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the third straight week of jobless claims hitting previously

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<v Speaker 1>unthinkable levels. To ease some of the economic pain, the

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<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve took another series of sweeping steps to pump

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<v Speaker 1>up to two point three trillion dollars into the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of that aid comes in the form of programs

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<v Speaker 1>for small and mid sized businesses, as well as state

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<v Speaker 1>and local governments. The FED also took the unprecedented step

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<v Speaker 1>of pledging to buy up low grade and risky debt.

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<v Speaker 1>Now for today's May story, there's overwhelming demand to test

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<v Speaker 1>people for the coronavirus. That's not just so we can

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<v Speaker 1>treat the sick. Scientists are desperate for a way to

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<v Speaker 1>detect the virus early, since we now know that the

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<v Speaker 1>novel coronavirus can be spread by people well before they

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<v Speaker 1>show symptoms. The earlier we can locate the virus and communities,

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<v Speaker 1>the better our chances for containing the pandemic. Amid all

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<v Speaker 1>of this, environmental scientists may have discovered a way to

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<v Speaker 1>tell where the virus is spreading, and it's right beneath

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<v Speaker 1>their feet. Jason Gale looks at how Dutch researchers found

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<v Speaker 1>an early warning sign of the novel coronavirus in sewage.

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<v Speaker 1>It turns out sewers carry a vat reservoir of information

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<v Speaker 1>on human health and behavior and potentially coronavirus. Here's Jason, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we think of COVID nineteen. It's pneumonia we worry most about,

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<v Speaker 1>but the coronavirus that causes it can also attack the

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<v Speaker 1>gastro intestinal tracts and lead to diarrhea. It's why the

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<v Speaker 1>virus is often found in fegal matter and on rectal

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<v Speaker 1>swabs of infected people. It's also why in the Netherlands,

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<v Speaker 1>scientists went looking for the virus in sewage. They collected

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<v Speaker 1>samples from wastewater treatment plants in seven cities and an

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<v Speaker 1>airport in early February, a few weeks before the country's

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<v Speaker 1>first COVID nineteen case. It's an unusual surveillance strategy, but

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<v Speaker 1>a similar approach has been used to track poliovirus for years,

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<v Speaker 1>and it turned out to be a smart move for

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<v Speaker 1>Dutch researchers. Traces of the coronavirus were found in the

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<v Speaker 1>sewage of a city called Amosport, about thirty two miles

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<v Speaker 1>southeast of Amsterdam. Importantly, the detection occurred almost a week

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<v Speaker 1>before the city reported its first COVID nineteen patient. That

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<v Speaker 1>finding gave doctors advanced warning that the pandemic causing disease

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<v Speaker 1>was circulating and that they should be on the lookout

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<v Speaker 1>for possible cases among patients. Coronavirus is often excreted by

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<v Speaker 1>an infected person from their coughs, sneezes, and breath, as

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<v Speaker 1>well as their stool. Days before they're sick enough to

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<v Speaker 1>see a doctor, and many people, especially younger than fifty,

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<v Speaker 1>aren't all that sick even when they're transmitting the virus

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<v Speaker 1>to others. It's why the COVID nineteen pandemic has been

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<v Speaker 1>so hard to stop. So Professor Gertian Maidemar and colleagues

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<v Speaker 1>at the KWR Water Research Institute in the Netherlands started

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<v Speaker 1>their sewage surveillance experiment. The first response to the virus

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<v Speaker 1>was trying to to find cases and to to quarantine,

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<v Speaker 1>to to to isolate them, and to try and isolate

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<v Speaker 1>the virus and advirus transmission in people that are having

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<v Speaker 1>only mild symptoms. This one is much more difficult to control.

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<v Speaker 1>So but yeah, then sewich evaliance can add to m

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<v Speaker 1>to the picture that we get off this virus circulation

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<v Speaker 1>and could also be an early warning. Go chan is

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<v Speaker 1>the Water Institute's principal micro biologist. He's been studying wastewater

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<v Speaker 1>for thirty years. I knew that detecting the coronavirus and

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<v Speaker 1>sewage could augment conventional disease surveillance that public health officials do,

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<v Speaker 1>but there were no guarantees of actually finding it. G

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<v Speaker 1>Chon says sewers aren't exactly a friendly environment for some viruses,

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<v Speaker 1>and there was a chance that coronavirus would be so

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<v Speaker 1>degraded by the time it got to treatment plants that

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<v Speaker 1>its genetic material couldn't be detected. Fortunately, that wasn't the case,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's inspired other research groups. Last Friday, a report

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<v Speaker 1>in the journal Nature said that more than a dozen

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<v Speaker 1>research groups worldwide have started analyze ways what for the

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<v Speaker 1>new coronavirus. It may help gauge the total number of

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<v Speaker 1>infections in a community. There's a huge interest and many

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<v Speaker 1>groups around the world are working more. It's starting to

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<v Speaker 1>work on it, have reached out to us, have started initiatives.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's a it's super interesting to see that there's

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<v Speaker 1>so much interested for this developed so will I'm sure

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<v Speaker 1>that will get to a point where we see that

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<v Speaker 1>sewage eveillance is is practiced. Gown says. The next steps

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<v Speaker 1>are to confirm the testing approaches, expand the number of

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<v Speaker 1>testing sites, and to compare the wastewater data with the

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<v Speaker 1>clinical information gathered from results of testing patient nose and

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<v Speaker 1>throat swaps, so that you can for instant see whether

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<v Speaker 1>trends in virus concentrations and occurrence in stew which match

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<v Speaker 1>trends that you see in the in the population. And

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<v Speaker 1>after the epidemic subsides again, we may use it as

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<v Speaker 1>a tool to monitor if the virus re emerges or

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<v Speaker 1>if it's in It could also help in countries with

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<v Speaker 1>more limited resources as a as a tool to to

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<v Speaker 1>do surveillance in the of the virus circulation in the population.

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<v Speaker 1>But what about the next pandemic. I think this is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be part of the of the future. Door.

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<v Speaker 1>Jose Antonio Baslomba as a researcher in the Department of

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<v Speaker 1>Environmental Chemistry and Technology with the Norwegian Institute of Water Research.

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<v Speaker 1>He's been doing sewage based epidemiology for more than eight

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<v Speaker 1>years and envisages a future when individuals might be using

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<v Speaker 1>their smartphones and other personal devices to monitor their bodily

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<v Speaker 1>waste for signs of infection and disease, and then this

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<v Speaker 1>information may be connected to your country platform just to

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<v Speaker 1>to monitor spikes of viruses or pandemics or something like that.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is going to accelerate. Maybe I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>We will fly like three or four or five years

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<v Speaker 1>just in a couple of months, which is good for us.

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<v Speaker 1>As the COVID nineteen pandemic continues to spread, ratchening up

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<v Speaker 1>the tragic loss of life and economic devastation. Some signs

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<v Speaker 1>of hope are emerging science and technology might enable humanity

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<v Speaker 1>to be better prepared for other emerging pathogens and perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>even snap out potential contagions before they even begin. That

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<v Speaker 1>was Jason Gale reporting from Melbourne, and that's it for

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<v Speaker 1>the Prognosis Daily Edition. For more on the pandemic from

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<v Speaker 1>our bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com, slash

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<v Speaker 1>Coronavirus and One Small favor. If you like what we're doing,

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<v Speaker 1>us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It helps

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<v Speaker 1>more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition

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<v Speaker 1>is hosted by me Laura Carlson. The show is produced

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<v Speaker 1>by Me Tophor foreheads Jordan Gaspoure and Magnus Hendrickson. Today's

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<v Speaker 1>main story was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by

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<v Speaker 1>Leo sedri Our editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine.

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<v Speaker 1>Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Thanks for listening.