1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,239 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day thirty since 2 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story scientists 3 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: need to find out where the novel coronavirus is spreading 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: in order to have any hope of containing it. So far, 5 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 1: a lot of the strategies to detect community spread have 6 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: focused on widespread testing, but a group of environmental scientists 7 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: has discovered another potentially effective way to trace the virus 8 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 1: by hunting in sewers. But first, here's what happened today. 9 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: A message about the virus is emerging from many corners 10 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: of the world social distancing works. Some countries are showing 11 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: early signs of flattening the curve, keeping infections from rising 12 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: to a sharp peak. That has encouraged some European countries 13 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:07,040 Speaker 1: and the White House to start making plans to reopen 14 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: the economy. But health officials are clear, if we're seeing 15 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 1: fewer infections than we thought, it's because of lockdown measures, 16 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: and it's still too early to let our guard down. 17 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: In the US, top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci predicted 18 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: the country will see half the number of deaths than 19 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,680 Speaker 1: some of the most dire predictions had shown. That's still 20 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: a staggering sixty thousand deaths just over a week ago, 21 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: though the White House had suggested as many as two 22 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: hundred and forty thousand could die as a result of 23 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: the outbreak. In another sign there might be light at 24 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 1: the end of the tunnel, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo 25 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: said Thursday that there had only been two hundred new 26 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: hospitalizations over twenty four hours. That number had been as 27 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: high as fourteen hun tread just a week ago. Likewise, 28 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: the rate of new intensive care admissions and intubations where 29 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 1: patients are put on a ventilator, also plummeted. Meanwhile, the 30 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,920 Speaker 1: outbreak continues to take its grim toll on the economy. 31 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: Six point six million people applied for unemployment benefits last week. 32 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: It's the third straight week of jobless claims hitting previously 33 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: unthinkable levels. To ease some of the economic pain, the 34 00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve took another series of sweeping steps to pump 35 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 1: up to two point three trillion dollars into the economy. 36 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: Some of that aid comes in the form of programs 37 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: for small and mid sized businesses, as well as state 38 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: and local governments. The FED also took the unprecedented step 39 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: of pledging to buy up low grade and risky debt. 40 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: Now for today's May story, there's overwhelming demand to test 41 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: people for the coronavirus. That's not just so we can 42 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: treat the sick. Scientists are desperate for a way to 43 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: detect the virus early, since we now know that the 44 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 1: novel coronavirus can be spread by people well before they 45 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: show symptoms. The earlier we can locate the virus and communities, 46 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 1: the better our chances for containing the pandemic. Amid all 47 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: of this, environmental scientists may have discovered a way to 48 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: tell where the virus is spreading, and it's right beneath 49 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: their feet. Jason Gale looks at how Dutch researchers found 50 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: an early warning sign of the novel coronavirus in sewage. 51 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: It turns out sewers carry a vat reservoir of information 52 00:03:51,680 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: on human health and behavior and potentially coronavirus. Here's Jason, Well, 53 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: we think of COVID nineteen. It's pneumonia we worry most about, 54 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: but the coronavirus that causes it can also attack the 55 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: gastro intestinal tracts and lead to diarrhea. It's why the 56 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: virus is often found in fegal matter and on rectal 57 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 1: swabs of infected people. It's also why in the Netherlands, 58 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 1: scientists went looking for the virus in sewage. They collected 59 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: samples from wastewater treatment plants in seven cities and an 60 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: airport in early February, a few weeks before the country's 61 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: first COVID nineteen case. It's an unusual surveillance strategy, but 62 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: a similar approach has been used to track poliovirus for years, 63 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 1: and it turned out to be a smart move for 64 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 1: Dutch researchers. Traces of the coronavirus were found in the 65 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: sewage of a city called Amosport, about thirty two miles 66 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 1: southeast of Amsterdam. Importantly, the detection occurred almost a week 67 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 1: before the city reported its first COVID nineteen patient. That 68 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: finding gave doctors advanced warning that the pandemic causing disease 69 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: was circulating and that they should be on the lookout 70 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: for possible cases among patients. Coronavirus is often excreted by 71 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: an infected person from their coughs, sneezes, and breath, as 72 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: well as their stool. Days before they're sick enough to 73 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: see a doctor, and many people, especially younger than fifty, 74 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: aren't all that sick even when they're transmitting the virus 75 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: to others. It's why the COVID nineteen pandemic has been 76 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,599 Speaker 1: so hard to stop. So Professor Gertian Maidemar and colleagues 77 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,239 Speaker 1: at the KWR Water Research Institute in the Netherlands started 78 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: their sewage surveillance experiment. The first response to the virus 79 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:54,400 Speaker 1: was trying to to find cases and to to quarantine, 80 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: to to to isolate them, and to try and isolate 81 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: the virus and advirus transmission in people that are having 82 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 1: only mild symptoms. This one is much more difficult to control. 83 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: So but yeah, then sewich evaliance can add to m 84 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,000 Speaker 1: to the picture that we get off this virus circulation 85 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: and could also be an early warning. Go chan is 86 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: the Water Institute's principal micro biologist. He's been studying wastewater 87 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: for thirty years. I knew that detecting the coronavirus and 88 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: sewage could augment conventional disease surveillance that public health officials do, 89 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: but there were no guarantees of actually finding it. G 90 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: Chon says sewers aren't exactly a friendly environment for some viruses, 91 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: and there was a chance that coronavirus would be so 92 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: degraded by the time it got to treatment plants that 93 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 1: its genetic material couldn't be detected. Fortunately, that wasn't the case, 94 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 1: and it's inspired other research groups. Last Friday, a report 95 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: in the journal Nature said that more than a dozen 96 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: research groups worldwide have started analyze ways what for the 97 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: new coronavirus. It may help gauge the total number of 98 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: infections in a community. There's a huge interest and many 99 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: groups around the world are working more. It's starting to 100 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: work on it, have reached out to us, have started initiatives. 101 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 1: So it's a it's super interesting to see that there's 102 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: so much interested for this developed so will I'm sure 103 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: that will get to a point where we see that 104 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: sewage eveillance is is practiced. Gown says. The next steps 105 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 1: are to confirm the testing approaches, expand the number of 106 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: testing sites, and to compare the wastewater data with the 107 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: clinical information gathered from results of testing patient nose and 108 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: throat swaps, so that you can for instant see whether 109 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:54,119 Speaker 1: trends in virus concentrations and occurrence in stew which match 110 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: trends that you see in the in the population. And 111 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 1: after the epidemic subsides again, we may use it as 112 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: a tool to monitor if the virus re emerges or 113 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: if it's in It could also help in countries with 114 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: more limited resources as a as a tool to to 115 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 1: do surveillance in the of the virus circulation in the population. 116 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: But what about the next pandemic. I think this is 117 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: going to be part of the of the future. Door. 118 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 1: Jose Antonio Baslomba as a researcher in the Department of 119 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: Environmental Chemistry and Technology with the Norwegian Institute of Water Research. 120 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: He's been doing sewage based epidemiology for more than eight 121 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: years and envisages a future when individuals might be using 122 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: their smartphones and other personal devices to monitor their bodily 123 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: waste for signs of infection and disease, and then this 124 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: information may be connected to your country platform just to 125 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: to monitor spikes of viruses or pandemics or something like that. 126 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: I think this is going to accelerate. Maybe I don't know. 127 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: We will fly like three or four or five years 128 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: just in a couple of months, which is good for us. 129 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: As the COVID nineteen pandemic continues to spread, ratchening up 130 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 1: the tragic loss of life and economic devastation. Some signs 131 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: of hope are emerging science and technology might enable humanity 132 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: to be better prepared for other emerging pathogens and perhaps 133 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: even snap out potential contagions before they even begin. That 134 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: was Jason Gale reporting from Melbourne, and that's it for 135 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: the Prognosis Daily Edition. For more on the pandemic from 136 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 1: our bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com, slash 137 00:09:55,600 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: Coronavirus and One Small favor. If you like what we're doing, 138 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,839 Speaker 1: please take a second to rate the podcast and leave 139 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,679 Speaker 1: us a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It helps 140 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily Edition 141 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: is hosted by me Laura Carlson. The show is produced 142 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: by Me Tophor foreheads Jordan Gaspoure and Magnus Hendrickson. Today's 143 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 1: main story was reported by Jason Gale. Original music by 144 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: Leo sedri Our editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. 145 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of Podcasts. Thanks for listening.