WEBVTT - Bloomberg Australia: Will it be a climate election yet again? 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:07.600 Hi, it's acua. Australia's twenty twenty two election was labeled 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.920 the Climate Election, and that resulted in a big shift 0:00:10.960 --> 0:00:15.680 in the country's politics. With only a three year parliamentary cycle, 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:19.040 Australia will once again go to the polls on May third. 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:24.400 This time, Donald Trump's shadow looms large over whatever happens. 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:29.320 So will it be another climate election this year? Bloomberg 0:00:29.320 --> 0:00:33.159 Green's editor in Asia, David Stringer, has the answer in 0:00:33.240 --> 0:00:37.240 this episode for our sister podcast, Bloomberg Australia. I wanted 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:40.520 to share it with zero listeners. Enjoy it and we'll 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:43.320 be back with a regular episode later this week. 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.199 Three years ago, Australia was on the verge of an 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:55.000 election dominated by a wave of independent mpaigns who promised 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:59.440 a climate change reckoning. We're heading to the polls again 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.800 in just over two weeks, so where are all the 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:03.840 climate warriors? 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:09.080 Climate change is having an impact on our weather patterns. 0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.160 If the renewables are so much cheaper as the Prime 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:15.360 Minister keeps telling you, why has he broken his promise 0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:17.440 of a two hunred and seventy five dollars a year 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:18.759 cut to your electricity built? 0:01:19.200 --> 0:01:22.720 Here's the lowdown on nuclear power. It will add twelve 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:26.080 hundred dollars to your power built, it will take decades 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:29.479 to build. It will block cheaper renewable energy. 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:34.880 Hello. I'm Rebecca Jones and welcome to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:38.440 This week we're taking a look at how climate issues 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:42.360 are featuring in the federal election campaign. Here with me 0:01:42.600 --> 0:01:45.480 is David Stringer, who heads up climate and ESG coverage 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.920 in Asia for Bloomberg News. He also has the thrilling 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:51.920 privilege of sharing a pod with me in the Melbourne 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:54.200 Bureau for the better part of the last decade. So 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.000 it's safe to suggest that this is a topic that 0:01:57.040 --> 0:01:59.520 we have discussed at length over the years, and it 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:02.360 felt time right to let you all eavesdrop in on 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:06.600 something that we at least can't stop talking about. David, Hello, 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:07.760 Thank you for joining me. 0:02:08.360 --> 0:02:09.919 Thanks a pleasure, pleasure to be here. 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:14.960 So Australian elections have seen divisive arguments in the past 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:17.800 two decades over climate policy, and it's often been an 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:22.200 area of clear difference between the main parties at a 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:25.640 time of pressing concerns among voters over a raft of 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.160 other things, from the cost of living to the affordability 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:32.680 of housing to the impact of the US China trade war. 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.160 Is climate change of factor in this campaign? 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:40.079 I think it's quite clear, having observed the campaign over 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:43.480 the past few weeks, that it's quite clearly quite different 0:02:43.760 --> 0:02:48.160 to elections past. If we think about more recent elections, 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:52.560 the climate debate has often been incredibly noisy. This time around, 0:02:53.000 --> 0:02:54.600 it's still there as an issue, but it's more of 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:58.880 a background hum. It's simply not getting the attention as 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:00.360 an issue that's been in the past. 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.760 That's understandable. I mean, if we think back to twenty twenty. 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:07.760 Two, Australia was just sort of getting over and still 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:11.400 was quite clear in people's minds that the impact that 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:15.520 those devastating twenty nineteen twenty twenty bushfires. 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:17.600 Had had, right yeah, really brought. 0:03:17.240 --> 0:03:20.440 Home some of the potential some of the consequences of 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:24.480 a lack of action on climate change from the then government. 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:27.119 We saw some of that feed through and certainly benefits 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:29.960 some of those Teal candidate. They campaigned on a platform 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:34.200 of increased climate action. They were very critical of the 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:39.200 then Scott Morrison government's timid approach towards reducing emissions. If 0:03:39.200 --> 0:03:42.360 we think even further back twenty thirteen. You know, one 0:03:42.360 --> 0:03:45.480 of the first national elections that I saw here in Australia. 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:50.280 Back then, debate was dominated by the carbon pricing mechanism 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:53.360 carbon taxed by another name, in effect brought Tony Abbott 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:58.040 to power. He campaigned incredibly hard on repealing that mechanism 0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:01.760 one office and subsequently did scrap it. So we've been 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:04.600 through a period where climate has been a real driver 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.880 of policy and debate. It's seen party leaders ours did. 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:12.400 It's been a determinate elections this time not so much so. 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.160 I guess the question I've been asking myself is why 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:15.520 is that? 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:18.520 It has been quite a busy decade, hasn't it? I mean, 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.920 who can forget that iconic image of former Prime Minister 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:25.880 Scott Morrison holding the chunk of thermal coal in Parliament? 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:30.680 This is coal. Don't be fright, scare Que Treasurer knows the. 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:33.760 Rule of props a useful place. I think that we 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:36.880 should start this discussion at is what is on the 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:39.640 table from both of our two major parties going into 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:43.040 the twenty twenty five elections. David, can you step us 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:46.320 through the key differences in energy policy this time? Is 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:50.680 it as simple as nuclear versus renewables for example. 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:54.880 Clearly there are differences between the two major parties, but 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.240 I'm going to be a little bit contrarian and I'm 0:04:57.240 --> 0:04:59.320 going to point to something where there is an area 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:02.440 of concer census. Both major parties are going into this 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:06.320 campaign saying Australia needs to hit net zero emissions by 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:10.320 twenty fifty. There's no debate over the end point. There's 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:13.880 no confusion over the goal. Where there are differences is 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.640 how do we get there how fast, at what cost, 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:20.560 you know, and at what cost to communities, not just 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:23.640 at what financial cost. If we look at Labour's platform, 0:05:23.760 --> 0:05:26.920 you know they did bring in a raft of measures 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:31.400 in their first term. They legislated a more ambitious target 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:35.560 for emissions reductions that's forty three percent below two thousand 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:39.039 and five levels by twenty thirty and they'll continue to 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:40.000 support the. 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.280 Adoption of large scale renewables. 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.920 They've made a pledge for around about two billion Australian 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:49.840 dollars extra in funding for the Clean Energy Finance Corp 0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:54.200 that sort of seeds renewables and green technologies. There's a 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:58.680 program to subsidize household batteries that's intended to help extend 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:01.359 that solar boom we've seen in Australia, you know, and 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:05.039 there are some policies around this ambition to bring green 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:09.600 manufacturing jobs away from places like China and here in Australia. 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:12.040 It's pretty much steady as she goes in terms of 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:15.599 their policy this time, the Liberal Party, we haven't heard 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.599 a huge amount, but what we have is very interesting 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:21.680 and chiefly among it, as you mentioned, the idea of 0:06:21.720 --> 0:06:23.960 bringing nuclear power to Australia. 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:25.040 Yes, tell me about that. 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:29.440 The detail is something clearly that you know, we still 0:06:29.480 --> 0:06:31.039 want to see more of and still needs to be 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:33.839 worked out. But you know, in simple terms, you know, 0:06:33.839 --> 0:06:37.839 what the Liberal Party have suggested is having seven locations 0:06:37.880 --> 0:06:41.120 across Australia that for the first time ever, would provide 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.559 nuclear power generation. You know, that would take a number 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:48.839 of steps. Nuclear power is illegal in lots of parts 0:06:48.960 --> 0:06:51.479 of the country. It can take a long time and 0:06:51.600 --> 0:06:55.200 is incredibly expensive. How those things are reconciled we're yet 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:58.159 to fully understand. But it is a key policy and 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:00.800 a key point of difference between the two parties. 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:04.640 So there is a general alignment on some metrics, but 0:07:05.000 --> 0:07:08.680 in others they do vary quite widely. I would like 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.160 to zoom in on some of the key seats that 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:14.240 we're looking at this election. One that comes to my 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:17.960 mind is the electorate of Hunter, which of course has 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:21.600 coal as its major industry. Now, David, you and I 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:24.200 both know working in the bureaus here, that we've had 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:28.160 other regional polls occur in recent times has been all. 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.520 There's been one in Queensland, there's also been one in WA. 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:34.800 What do the results in those states tell us about 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:37.520 the climate outlook nationally for Australia. 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.040 You mentioned the Hunter Valley and of course that lump 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:42.760 of coal you referenced before that was held by Scott 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:46.160 Morrison in twenty seventeen from the Hunter Valley and it 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:50.240 remains a really crucial emblem, you know, and symbol in 0:07:50.240 --> 0:07:53.560 this election, because how do you handle the transition of 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:58.520 those kinds of communities from traditional industries in this case coal. 0:07:58.560 --> 0:07:59.640 To future industries. 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.440 The outlook is uncertain, so it would be really interesting 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:05.160 to see what happens in New South Wales. Of the 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:08.240 recent regional elections we've had, the one that's really interested 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:11.040 me is in Queensland, where we saw the incumbent Labor 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:16.320 government replaced by a new Liberal National Coalition government very quickly, 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:19.520 we've seen some big and significant decisions on climate and 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.560 energy policy. The government there has announced a sort of 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.760 five year energy plan that it's working on. Also, it's 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:29.640 already put a couple one hundred million dollars into the 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:33.880 maintenance and upgrades of existing coal plants. It signaled that 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.240 it sees a longer life for the coal fired power 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:40.640 capacity in Queensland. It expects it to continue for far 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.800 longer than expected. What's most interesting is if that's the 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:46.559 kind of policy that we could see, if we see 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:48.600 that result replicated national. 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.079 And what about WA Because I think people outside of 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:55.120 Australia when they're thinking about the resource industry within Australia, 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:59.199 they think of the Pilborough right the great open expansive 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:01.760 dessert happened in their recent regional poll. 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.240 I mean in Western Australia and it's a place I've 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:07.520 been very fortunate to visit a lot during my career 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:10.400 at Bloomberg and spend a lot of time luckily in 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:13.360 the Pilborough and there's a few dynamics going on there. Obviously, 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:17.480 we saw the Labor government return to office, but was 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:21.480 that an entirely positive step? On climate policy. I think 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:26.520 that's debatable. One of the big criticisms nationally of Antony 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:29.600 Albernesi's Labor government has been that there've been too weak 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:33.800 on implementing environmental policies. They came into the last election, 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:38.280 they campaigned in the last election with promises to overhaul 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:44.800 environmental legislation, to introduce a national environmental agency. What we've 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.640 seen in Western Australia is a lot of pushback against 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:53.000 any new burdens of regulation, not only from the resources industry, 0:09:53.000 --> 0:09:58.200 but absolutely from companies developing new minds, new gas export plans, 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:03.160 even companies who are looking to establish new green manufacturing sites. 0:10:03.280 --> 0:10:06.640 What they don't want is an additional burden of environmental legislation. 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:09.800 And what we saw in that Western Australia poll very 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:14.960 successfully lobbied the local the WA labor government to you 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:17.359 not to back new restrictions. 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:18.559 So yeah, quite. 0:10:18.400 --> 0:10:21.520 Interesting in both cases to see how that could inform 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.040 the national debate and national policy. 0:10:23.720 --> 0:10:26.000 And certainly what happens in the Hunter electorate. You know 0:10:26.080 --> 0:10:28.920 in a couple of weeks time now you briefly touched 0:10:28.920 --> 0:10:31.360 on targets earlier, David, I want to pick up on 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.680 that a little bit. Now, Australia is regarded as you know, 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:38.200 somewhat of a global tess case for the energy transition, 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:42.080 and it does in turn attract investment and attention from 0:10:42.120 --> 0:10:45.480 all over the place. Right, what is the actual status 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:49.800 of Australia's energy transition? Are we actually on track to 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:52.160 hit targets to reduce greenhouse gases? 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:56.240 It's one of those scenarios where you can probably make 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.800 an argument either way, So I think the truth is 0:10:58.840 --> 0:10:59.559 it's debatable. 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:02.080 So whremissions in the year to. 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.600 Last March were They were about twenty eight point two 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:09.680 percent below June two thousand and five levels. That's the 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:12.520 level that we're looking at. That's the baseline for the 0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:16.000 targets that the existing government have outlined, and again that 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:20.040 is to make a forty three percent reduction by twenty thirty, 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:24.319 so still somewhere to go. The pace at which reductions 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:28.160 are being made is you know, charitably about on track. 0:11:28.320 --> 0:11:32.079 I think realistically probably a little too slow. And there 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:35.640 are also other debates around what's included and what's excluded 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.319 when you come to countermissions. You know, if we think 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.680 about the policy settings, there's a there's a nonprofit globally 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:46.480 that sort of grades countries climate policies and their targets 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:50.480 climate Action Tracker, and it currently sees Australia's policy settings 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:54.000 and Australia's targets as insufficient. The one area that it 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:57.520 identifies chiefly is there's a lot of reliance on future 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:01.120 technologies that are yet to have been mercialized and developed, 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.480 and not a lot of policy on phasing out things 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:08.920 like coll exports, gas exports, the thing that are huge 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:10.640 drivers of export earnings. 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:13.160 So it's a little bit chicken and egg like, we've 0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:15.560 got to have the technology to do it, and we've 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:18.600 got to get the technology first and agree how we're 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:21.080 going to do that and also finance it. I think 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:25.200 one thing recently that's also been quite profound is the 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:30.120 responsibility for domestic policy most certainly, but also Australia's place 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:34.160 within the region. We had some quite pointed comments from 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.480 the President of Palao just this month on Australia as 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.440 a sort of a big brother of the Pacific, wanting 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:42.720 it to take more of a leadership role of this 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.559 topic in the region. Let's take a quick listen. 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.559 We are part of the Pacific family. We need to 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.160 work together to solve problems and it's not a joke. 0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.520 Climate change is a reality and it's something that we 0:12:55.600 --> 0:13:01.320 face every day and we need Australia support and we're 0:13:01.360 --> 0:13:04.880 ready to work with whoever is in government to attack 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:08.640 all these problems. And it's so important that the Australian 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:15.560 people understand that it's their leadership should take a leadership 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:18.960 role in the Pacific and work with us to meet 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:20.480 the challenges that we have ahead of us. 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.360 David, it is quite a tense time in the Pacific, 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:27.400 with China fighting for influence in the region. Is Australia 0:13:27.440 --> 0:13:30.840 doing enough fun climate change to support its specific neighbors. 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:33.679 I think if you ask and we heard, of course 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:37.200 they're from power. If you ask a lot of Pacific nations, 0:13:37.240 --> 0:13:39.840 the answer would be no. But then if we think 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:44.040 back to the time of the last election, at that moment, 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.400 Australia was regarded on the sort of international scene and 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:52.400 in terms of climate diplomacy as a complete outlier. Australia 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.800 had seeded, you know, a lot of its influence on 0:13:55.840 --> 0:14:01.120 the global stage, and you know, the government has spent 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:03.800 quite a lot of time trying to rebuild that trust 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:07.400 and trying to really reassert itself in just the global 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:11.240 process of supporting the International Approach to Climate Act. But 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.040 you know, the Pacific nations clearly are in a tough 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:16.400 spot and I think what we saw at the most 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:20.720 recent Global Climate talks in Azerbaijan last year was a 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:25.200 continued sense of disappointment. Developing countries came into that meeting 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:29.200 asking rich countries for you know, a commitment to direct 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:33.600 about a trillion dollars you know, in climate financing to 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:36.640 the emerging world. What they got was a commitment for 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:40.240 three hundred billion, so a lot less than expected. Australia 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.760 is one of those developed nations that is being asked 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.400 to do more and so you know, quite rightly, I 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:49.680 think the Pacific, not only Australia, but Australia because of 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:52.120 its role in the region, they are asking Australia to 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:52.600 step up. 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:55.800 When we come back, let's lens in and consider the 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.880 almighty dollar, how our investors in renewables approaching the election 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:03.040 and what do they want to see from Messrs Albanzi 0:15:03.240 --> 0:15:11.960 and Dutton. You're listening to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast and 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.600 welcome back to the Bloomberg Australia Podcast. You're here with 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:17.720 me Rebecca Jones, and I'm talking all things climate with 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:21.400 Bloomberg's APEC, head of ESG and green coverage, my mate 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:26.520 David Stringer. David, let's talk about money. Has the ALP 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:30.400 seen an increase in investments in renewables over the last 0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:34.520 three years and how are those investors approaching this election? 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:38.360 Well, there's nothing I like better than pulling up charts 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:42.080 of energy transition investment, you know, and taking a look 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.600 at what's actually happening on the ground, where is money flowing. 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:48.520 And I think if you ask most voters, I think 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.840 their assumption would be that under an Albanzy government, what 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:56.320 we would have seen is a continued flow of more investment. 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.200 In truth, that's not the case. If we look at 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:01.240 total energy. 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:03.479 Transition investment, so that's the power system. 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:07.200 That's clean transport, you know, that's clean agriculture, that actually 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:10.920 fell about five percent last year to just less than 0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:12.040 twenty three billion. 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.200 That's even though what we. 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:15.960 Are seeing and what we did see last year is 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:20.680 a sort of rebound in investment into renewables, into clean energy. 0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.480 We also saw a little bit more spending on electrified transport, 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:28.320 but in total it fell again. And if we think 0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:33.040 the total spending that our colleagues at Bloomberg NF Research 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.840 is they forecast that between now and twenty fifty, you know, 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.000 Australia is going to need to spend about two point 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:43.920 four trillion US dollars just on energy alone. How quickly 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.600 that investment ramps up is really crucial. 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.640 I want to talk to you about a national obsession. Well, 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:51.600 I mean it certainly to me, it feels like it's 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:54.760 a bit of an obsession, and that is the adoption 0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:59.520 of solar, something that's done quite well. How is that 0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:03.080 transfer forming the country's energy system? And is it a 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.760 trend that we think will continue in the same fashion. 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:09.959 I think if you talk to experts on energy markets, 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:14.360 it's hard. It's hard to overstate how transformative the adoption 0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:15.920 of solar in Australia has been. 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:18.000 If we think there's been enough. 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:22.639 Solar installed on rooftops across Australia to really account for 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:27.119 one in every three house, astonishing right. And what's really 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:32.000 interesting is we're not necessarily talking about urban homes in 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.960 places like Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane. To a large extent, 0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:38.520 these are solar panels that have been installed in rural 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.000 community and in large numbers, So how's that changed the 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.560 energy signel quite radically. What it means is that right 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.960 now there's often an excess of power being generated during 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:49.680 the middle of the day the suns that it's height 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:54.000 when we're getting the most radiation on those panels, And 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:56.920 in a sense, the solar sector in Australia has kind 0:17:56.920 --> 0:17:59.080 of been a victim of its own success. And in fact, 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:03.280 a colleagues that BNF their analysis tells them is that 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:07.440 for residential solace, that we think adoption peaked in twenty 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.760 twenty one and as being in a slow decline since 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:15.280 then because you know, rebates and incentives have come off, 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:19.760 We've seen, you know, the value of sending excess power 0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.719 to the grid become lower and lower because basically, how 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:25.879 is worthless in the middle of the day now because 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:29.000 there is so much solar so little demand, that the 0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:32.480 power itself becomes cheaper. One of the proposals we've heard 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:37.399 in this campaign from Labor is a policy to subsidize 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:40.880 household battery. They want to see more people pair up 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:45.080 their rooftop solar systems with storage batteries that allows people 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:48.680 to use it when it's needed. It sees less wastage, 0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:51.359 and you know that's a potential policy that could help 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.200 to some degree extend the solar. 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:58.320 So I was right. Then solar panels are everywhere and 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:00.800 we are obsessed with them. It is like a really 0:19:00.800 --> 0:19:05.480 well known manifestation of renewable energy, right. You know, you 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.160 go to Waikia, you see the solar panels on the roof. 0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:10.320 Go and have a look at my parents beach house. 0:19:10.359 --> 0:19:14.960 It's covered in them. David, what when we're thinking about 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:20.680 investments in renewables, certainly extending beyond solar panels, what other 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:24.479 things are we're needing investment in, for one, And what 0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:26.880 are some of the proposals that both of the parties 0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:28.640 are putting forward in this campaign? 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:32.080 Well quite, I mean, so if we think about rooftop solar, 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:37.160 you know, as a sector that added about three gigawatts 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:41.560 last year, what's that. Well, that's sort of roughly equivalent 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:43.880 about three coal fired power stations. 0:19:44.240 --> 0:19:45.000 That's not enough. 0:19:45.040 --> 0:19:49.440 What we're really focused on is large scale renewables projects, 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:51.600 things with the sort of size and scale that can 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:57.920 actually help Australia replace those big fossil fuel sites. And 0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:01.000 that requires a lot of investment, clearly, you know, and 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:04.440 as we said, it's been a very complex picture in 0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:07.359 the past few years under the Albanese government. If we 0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:12.440 zero in on renewable energy investment, you can really see, 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:15.280 even looking at a chart, you can see when people 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:19.480 talk about investor uncertainty and people being worried about policy change, 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:21.639 it's there in the sort of it's there in a 0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.480 bar chart. You can see, you know, you can see 0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:27.959 investment yo yoing from year to year. And so what 0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:30.520 we had was between sort of twenty eighteen and twenty 0:20:30.600 --> 0:20:35.160 twenty one, investment in these large scale renewable projects really created, 0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:40.160 rebounded and then actually fell sharply again. Twenty twenty three, 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:43.320 rebounded last year, and a lot of that is down 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:46.880 to a policy the Labor government brought in, the Capacity 0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:50.200 Investment Scheme. Now it sounds complicated, but you know, put 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:51.520 very simply kind of. 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:51.880 What it does. 0:20:51.920 --> 0:20:55.840 It sets a flaw a revenue floor for a renewable project. 0:20:56.080 --> 0:20:59.520 The project earns less than expected, the government meets some 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.720 of the differentrans and similarly, there's like a revenue ceiling. 0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:05.080 If it does better than expected, you're going to pay 0:21:05.080 --> 0:21:08.200 some of that access, right, got it. It helps investors 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:13.040 have certainty when they're thinking about these multi billion dollar investment. 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:17.240 What's interesting is the Liberal parties plan for that scheme 0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:20.800 is to add natural gas. That's opposed by labor who 0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:24.080 say that will deter the purpose of the scheme, which 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:27.800 is to encourage private investment in wind, in solar, in 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:32.560 renewable and its so yeah, rooftops we're seeing potentially start 0:21:32.600 --> 0:21:35.879 to peter out and sortlatter. What the real focus is, 0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:40.560 what's the direction of those really big large scale renewal I. 0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:44.360 Want to ask you about another thing that Australians love 0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:46.280 and that we think about all the time, and that 0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:50.640 is driving our cars. Power isn't the only sector crucial 0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:54.919 to Australia's decarbonization, obviously, and we have moved on ILAC 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:58.840 to think from Scott Morrison's famous claim that electric vehicles 0:21:58.880 --> 0:22:01.719 are going to end the week. But is there a 0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:07.320 consensus among the parties around phasing out gas guzzling cars 0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:10.160 and utes. What does the data tell us? 0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:14.439 You know, Australia is still seen as something of a 0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:19.000 laggard on adoption of electric vehicles, which kind of surprises 0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:21.320 me in a way because and you know this as well, 0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:24.040 that any time we're out on a street here in Melbourne, 0:22:24.359 --> 0:22:28.880 the number of Tesla's increasingly, the number of bid cars 0:22:29.040 --> 0:22:31.840 you know that we see, never mind all of the 0:22:31.840 --> 0:22:34.600 other myriad of electric models that are available now that 0:22:34.760 --> 0:22:38.639 anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest that things are really 0:22:38.680 --> 0:22:41.679 taking off. What the numbers tell us is that they're not. 0:22:41.840 --> 0:22:44.840 I think they were just over around about one hundred 0:22:44.840 --> 0:22:50.160 and fourteen thousand new electric vehicles sold last year compared 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:53.199 to about one hundred thousand in twenty twenty three, so 0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:59.040 an increase, but not the kinds of dramatic jumps we're seeing. 0:22:59.040 --> 0:22:59.920 Another jurisdiction. 0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:01.840 Part of that is policy, and what. 0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:05.080