1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:06,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. Every business day, we 2 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, from Bloomberg experts, 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: along with Essential market, the Bloomberg Markets Podcast podcast or 4 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: wherever you listen to podcasts and that Bloomberg dot Com 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: slash podcast. Investments contain risk and may lose value. Consult 6 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: your investment professional before investing. Let's bring on our Jersey 7 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence IRA, give 8 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:36,159 Speaker 1: us the latest on what your Federal Reserve plans to 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 1: do over the next let's call it six to twelve months. Hey, yeah, 10 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: there's uh, the opinions are all over the place. My 11 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: view is that the Fed is going to go a 12 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: little bit slower than the market is currently pricing, but 13 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: also start balance sheet runoff pretty early. So um so 14 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: I think that they might announce in May, might even 15 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: start in May with their balance sheet reduction because they 16 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: really they bought so much and I was actually just 17 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: looking at some of my spreadsheets this morning, you're fallen 18 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: and that they probably bought about a trillion dollars too 19 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: much in terms of their asset buying over the last year, 20 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,560 Speaker 1: so they have to get rid of that before they 21 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 1: could really tighten monetary policy very effectively in my view, 22 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:21,400 Speaker 1: just hanging out at home going through my spreadsheets. You know, 23 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: that's the life of a chief fixed income strategist. Um. 24 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: You know. I read a great piece today. I think 25 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:32,199 Speaker 1: it was Cormack Mullen talking about maybe it's too soon 26 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: to call the end of the bond bull market. And 27 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 1: one of the interesting things that he says is, um, 28 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: there are already a substantial amount of rate hikes priced 29 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:47,319 Speaker 1: in two treasuries today. If that's the case and the 30 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 1: Fed delivers less than the market expects, um, you know, 31 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: that's that's that's bullish for treasuries. What is priced in? 32 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: And how do and how do you read what's priced 33 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 1: in for for someone who doesn't know? Yeah, so the 34 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: easiest way we actually have a very uh you know, 35 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: simple function on the Bloomberg terminal called w I r 36 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 1: P or WARP some people call it um And if 37 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: you if you use that, you can see kind of 38 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: over the next year how much the markets pricing seven 39 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: rate more or left. Yeah, so seven rate hikes uh 40 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,959 Speaker 1: by by this time next year, Yeah, exactly. So that's 41 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: that's where I think that the market maybe is getting 42 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: a little bit too far ahead of itself. We actually 43 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: put out a note yesterday suggesting that something more realistic 44 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,799 Speaker 1: would be maybe five hikes along with runoff, because I 45 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: do think that the Federal Reserve does think about um 46 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,639 Speaker 1: the runoff as replacing a hike or two right that 47 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: they don't know exactly, you know what the what the 48 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: metric is is it, you know, five billion dollars a 49 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: runoff equals equals another hike or something like that. That 50 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: that's a little bit more of guests work. But importantly, 51 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: and and to your point that we are pricing in 52 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: more interest rate hikes. The difference between looking at that 53 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: long term trend that you mentioned, Matt. You know, yes, 54 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: interest rates have been going down basically from present they 55 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: the long term bond bull market goes down. But if 56 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 1: you're an an asset manager trying to outperform an index 57 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: or you're trying to determine, um, you know, what your 58 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 1: total return is going to be over the next twelve 59 00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: months of holding an asset, you don't have to think 60 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: about that long term you know, kind of two generation trend. Well, 61 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 1: you worry about as the cycle and keep in mind 62 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 1: ten year treasury yields are right now at two percent 63 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty basis points one and a half 64 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: percent higher than where they were a year ago or 65 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: after that, after I should say, at the beginning of 66 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: one So so you know, that is a pretty substantial 67 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: move and and interest rates of you've lost money if 68 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: you held the Treasury index right the Bloomberg Treasury indexes 69 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: down UM you know, five percent since the beginning of 70 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: last year, actually even a little bit more than that. 71 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: So that's a non trivial loss in a you know, 72 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: in a bond portfolio, which is supposed to be you know, 73 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: your ballast compared to the rest of your financial assets. 74 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: Is the Federal Reserve gonna hike fifty basis points in March? 75 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: I don't think so, UM. I think that they'll they'll 76 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: go twenty five. I think it's much more likely that 77 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: they go every meeting this year and do go seven 78 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: times as opposed to UM as opposed to hike initially 79 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: with a fifty basis point move. UM, it is possible 80 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: if inflation doesn't roll over the way that a lot 81 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: of u UM market participants and economists think that it 82 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 1: will UM that that maybe they'll do a hike a 83 00:04:31,279 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 1: fifty base point hike sometime later in the cycle. But 84 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 1: I just don't think that they'll start with you you think, 85 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm guessing you think inflation is gonna roll over, 86 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: our growth is going to slow down, because otherwise, well 87 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 1: I wouldn't have fed do fifty basis points hike at 88 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,039 Speaker 1: every meeting and then not just let the balance sheet 89 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 1: run off, but actually sell assets. You know, if we 90 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 1: if we're stuck at seven and a half percent, people 91 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: are freaking out. Yeah. Yeah, So so we won't be 92 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: stuck at seven and a half percent, I mean, just 93 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: base effects alone. If you're looking at year over year inflation, UM, 94 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,800 Speaker 1: inflation will be low or for four or five months 95 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 1: from now. The question is how much lower, right will 96 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: we will we be trending from eight percent, which you 97 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: know we could get seen a percent prince is not 98 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: out of the question, especially with what oil has done recently, UM. 99 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: But but if we get an eight percent print, the 100 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: question is will we be at at four percent or 101 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:18,720 Speaker 1: five percent at the end of the year, right, So, 102 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: so how is that glidepath going to go? Which would 103 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: be harsh by the way, that's four or five percent 104 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 1: at the end of the year on a six percent 105 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: number from the year before, right, Yeah, But at the 106 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 1: same time, keep in mind we were at one and 107 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: a half percent inflation for a decade, right, So that 108 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 1: was good in a way. That was good. Remember what 109 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: Reagan said about inflation. Yeah sure, but and yes, this 110 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: is this is the question that it has to be 111 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: answered before we know what that end game is, right, Like, 112 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: is seven hikes going to be? What what it takes. Look, 113 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: the bond market right now is telling you there's gonna 114 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: be a recession next year. Let me say that again. 115 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 1: The bond market is telling you there's gonna be a 116 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: recession next Well, that's not fun. Curves are flat um. 117 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: And and this is where this is where this you know, 118 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: the FED making a policy mistake, Like the markets already 119 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 1: priced with the Fed to make a policy mistake. So 120 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,359 Speaker 1: what we're already priced for two s tends to be 121 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: basically at zero UM at this time next year, which 122 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: is very consistent with the market thinking the Fed is 123 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: gonna be done and we're gonna have a recession. I'm 124 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: looking for when, I can't find when. But Reagan said 125 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: that inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening, 126 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: as an arm dropper and as deadly as a hit man. 127 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: All Right, Ira Jersey gif us industrate strategist for Bloomberg 128 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: Intelligence bond market calling forward recession. If you're talking about 129 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 1: Ira Jersey in the last segment you mentioned w I 130 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: R P Worp. Put that into the Bloomberg and it 131 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:52,480 Speaker 1: shows you that the markets pricing in seven rate increases 132 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: by the end of the year. What's the fixed income 133 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,039 Speaker 1: manager to do in that kind of environment, Well, let's 134 00:06:58,080 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: check in with Kevin Nicholson, Global Fixed Income co ce IO, 135 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 1: cohead of the Investment Committee at river Front Investment Group, 136 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 1: located in Lovely Richmond, Virginia, home of the University of 137 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: Richmond Spiders. Kevin, thanks so much for joining us here. 138 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 1: Given that interest rate backdrop, how are you guys positioning 139 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: your portfolios? Thanks for having me, Paul, And we continue 140 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: to position our portfolios in such a way that we're 141 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: moving further and further up the curve, so to speak. 142 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,239 Speaker 1: So we're buying on the short end of the curve 143 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: because as we're seeing the curve flattened, it doesn't really 144 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: make sense to take on that duration risk in your portfolio. 145 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: Um and so what we have constantly been doing is 146 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: we've looked for some spread, getting some a little bit 147 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: of additional spread on the front end of the curve, 148 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: and buying short term corporates and some high ye opportunistically. UM. 149 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 1: But one of the things that we have not been 150 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: doing is going you know, beyond about five years out 151 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: on the curve, because we really don't need to at 152 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: this point. But overall, because we run balanced portfolios, we 153 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: have been underweight fixing become pretty substantially relative to our 154 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 1: benchmarks in those balance portfolios. And we've seen, um, a 155 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: Bank America survey yesterday shows us that credit investors were 156 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: in kind of sell everything mode. Goldman Sachs was recommending, um, 157 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: you reduce your exposure to credit and go to cash. 158 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: Is this the end you think of the bond bull 159 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: market that we've seen since the early eighties or is 160 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: this a mini bear market as some I've been describing it. 161 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 1: I would say it's probably a mini bear market in 162 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,599 Speaker 1: the sense that I think that you know, by the 163 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,079 Speaker 1: end of the year, we'll see it two and a 164 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: half on the ten uere But I don't think that 165 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: we're going to retrace what we have seen occur over 166 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 1: the last you know, twenty years. You know, I've been 167 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: in the business thirty years, and I think that when 168 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: I started, the tenure was right about a seven thirty 169 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: four seven thirty five. Um. And do I think that 170 00:09:07,040 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: we're going to retrace all of that? Absolutely not, um I. 171 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 1: But I do think that we're gonna go higher. We 172 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: are probably like I said, see you know, two and 173 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 1: a half on fight year end, Kevin, I think the 174 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: consensus on the street is that inflation will kind of 175 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: peak I don't know in the next several months and 176 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: then moderate remainder of the year. Are are you in 177 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: that camp? If not, why I had been in night camp. 178 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 1: You know, my thoughts were that inflation was going to 179 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: peep in the first half of this year and then 180 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,360 Speaker 1: moderate to around between two and a half and three uh. 181 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 1: Thus far I would say that we have been wrong 182 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 1: on that front. And you know, I think that it 183 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 1: might be consensus that it's going to peak. But right 184 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 1: now it's a hope and a prayer because as you've seen, 185 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 1: you know, headline inflation coming out of seven and a 186 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: half cent. We saw a p p I the this morning. 187 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 1: Um that was really high. And so there's inflation everywhere. UM. 188 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: But the one thing that is all that we believe 189 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: in is that high prices will solve the high prices problem. 190 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: And so as prices continue to go up, I think that, 191 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 1: you know, we're going to kill some of the demand 192 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: out there, and so that may help mitigate the inflation 193 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: risks that we're seeing. So hopefully by you know, Midsummer, 194 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: we will start to make inflation teach here all right, Kevin, 195 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Kevin Nicholson. They're Global 196 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,439 Speaker 1: fixed Income Co. C I O and Co. Had to 197 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: invest the investment committee as well at Riverfront Investment Group. 198 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: Talking to us about the fixed income markets. Looking at 199 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: the yield curve here, I got the ten year treasury 200 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: up five basis points two point zero four percent, to 201 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: thirty year up six basis points two point three five 202 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: on the thirty years, So rates moving higher. Let's get 203 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,679 Speaker 1: in angle on how you might play the fixed income 204 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 1: markets given that this feder Reserve has been very clear 205 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: that it will be raising rates. We check in with 206 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:13,679 Speaker 1: Hugh Robert's head of analytics for quant Insights. Hugh, thanks 207 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here. What is your bond 208 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 1: market outlook for Hi, thank you very much for having 209 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: me at the moment, we have our models, we rely 210 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,479 Speaker 1: on macro input to give a kind of quantitative perspective 211 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: on all asset classes, and looking at the US fixed 212 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: income at the moment, then the moving yields has slightly 213 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: got ahead of itself on our metrics UM and anecdotally 214 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: adding into that, I think you know one one story 215 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 1: that might just play Internet if you start looking at 216 00:11:44,640 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: just how much the flattening of the yield curve has 217 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 1: happened in coupon space, and then looking at the shape 218 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: of the yellow donor strip, you see the deferred contracts 219 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 1: actually starting to speculator about rate cuts. So while at 220 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: the moment markets are talking about the said high team 221 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: this year and next, the market is actually already moving 222 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: on to the next narrative, which is, at what point 223 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 1: do they fear a proper kind of mistake and a 224 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 1: reversal in the policy stance and easing once again? You 225 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 1: know how far away from that are we? I mean 226 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: it's difficult, of course, the forecast UM into the future, 227 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: the further away you get. And and for now we're 228 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: looking at a seven and a half percent inflation print. 229 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 1: We had pp I come out higher than expected today, 230 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:35,679 Speaker 1: UM and there's no sign that we're UM in a 231 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:39,559 Speaker 1: recession other than the you know, implications of a flattening 232 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,079 Speaker 1: yield curve. Yeah, well, some of the men if you 233 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: look at somebody like that Lena said GDP, now that 234 00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: had a sharp move earlier. Most of the models that 235 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: are kind of more forward looking, that are kind of 236 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: more credit impulsey type of nature or financial conditions indicators 237 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: do suggest that the story from the the flattening of 238 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: the yield curve is true, that the big fiscal stimulus 239 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 1: we saw last year UM is going to fall off. 240 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 1: We'll get a kind of cliff edge effect there. So 241 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 1: I think there are quite a few of the more 242 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 1: forward indicators that do suggest the data could be struggling 243 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: in the near term. The consumer confidence data yesterday not 244 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 1: make pretty reading UM, but yes, that the whole inflation 245 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: debate is absolutely front and center. And I don't think 246 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: team transitory has completely thrown in the town. There's a 247 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: large residual of the market who are still in team transitory. 248 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: It's just that they defined transitory in quarters rather than 249 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 1: in months. And you know, they think that we need 250 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: to wait till probably the middle part of this year 251 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: before you start to see things roll back over again. 252 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,199 Speaker 1: You does a flattening of the yield curve suggests a 253 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: recession to you? I think you have to be very 254 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: very careful the because you have to rephrase that question. 255 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 1: To my mind, an inversion of the yield curve, Yes, 256 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:03,839 Speaker 1: it is consistent with with recessionary conditions. It does depend 257 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: on whether you're looking at two s, tens, fives, thirties, 258 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: whether you look at guvees or swaps or O I 259 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: s um. There are little nuances you can take on 260 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: that front. But the inversion of the curve does have 261 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: a good back record of being consistent with recessionary conditions. 262 00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: For sure, a flattening of itself. But when the curve 263 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: stays positive, no, that won't stop the market speculating about it, 264 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 1: because obviously it's about the journey to the end game. 265 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 1: But you really have got to wait until you see 266 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: curves go negative before you can really start kind of 267 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: increasing your your forecast for recession in a material way. Well, 268 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: but we're still close, right What are we looking at 269 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: a forty basis point spread between twos and tens right now? 270 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: And the Fed hasn't even begun its rate high cycle. 271 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 1: If you look at rate high cycles over the past decades. 272 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: Um the curve always flattens more in a in a 273 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: in a rate high cycle. So if we're going to 274 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: see any more flattening, inversion is next. Yeah, no, I agree, 275 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: but we have got that Fordy Lips cushion and it 276 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 1: will take time to get there. That's my my point really, 277 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: just on the reality of inversion versus the flattening when 278 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 1: you're in a positive, upward sloping gheel curve. And then 279 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: I guess the other point to throw into the mix 280 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: really is just the degree to which financial conditions have 281 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: heightened already. I mean, the moving real rate is phenomenal, 282 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: The repricing of the front end of the yield curve, 283 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 1: you know, the two year notes or do euro dollar strike, 284 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: whichever metric you want to use. The widening in credit spreads, 285 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: you know, the widening in credit spreads is a tough one. 286 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 1: If you look on a one year chart, it looks 287 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 1: pretty done, dramatic. You look on a tenure history and 288 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: really it's just a blip. But we have seen a 289 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: sharp tightening of financial conditions, and that the others slightly cliched, 290 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: but I think it is a truism. The other thing 291 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: to throw into the mix is that it's less about levels, 292 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: it's also about the speed of the journey. So you know, 293 00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: if we have a sharp flattening of the yel curve 294 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 1: that happens in two weeks, yes, the FED they're going 295 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: to sit up and take notice. But it happens over 296 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: a prolong period lesser. So many of the things you 297 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: just said reminded me of the Jean clautriche ECB. Is 298 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: the likelihood of a turnaround, of a of an about 299 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: face after a little bit of tightening higher for the 300 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: E c B than it is for the FED. Um, well, 301 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: that's a good question. Um. The difficulty this one, of course, 302 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: that we haven't in a lot of people's recent lifetime 303 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: seen inflation like this. Now, this is a complete game changer, 304 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: having these levels of price pressures. And I think you 305 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 1: know the way the markets have thought about, at least 306 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: in an equity markets, you know, this kind of concept 307 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: of restriking the said put for US equities at a 308 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: lower level makes complete sense. We have to reprice given 309 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: these conditions that we're seeing on the inflationary front in 310 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 1: terms of FED versity c B. I mean I think 311 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 1: most market participants will always view the CPS laguard that 312 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: they are so petrified of the euro as being strong 313 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: and and titling them that they will always go second. 314 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: All right, Hugh, thanks so much for joining us. You 315 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: Robert's head of analytics at Quad Insights, giving us his 316 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: thoughts on interest rates. Well, Matt and I, we've been 317 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: focusing on the supply chain challenges. It is a global 318 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: issue for businesses really across the board, and you hear 319 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: these quarterly earnings calls. Companies are calling it out left 320 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: and right. Let's ga get a sense of what it 321 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:38,280 Speaker 1: means in the critical food business. Andre Menezez, co founder 322 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: and CEO of Next Gen Foods and Tindle, joins us. Andrea, 323 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: thanks so much for taking the time. First, just tell 324 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,359 Speaker 1: us what Next Gen Foods and Tindle do. What are 325 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: you guys up to, Hi, Paul him, It's a pleasure 326 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: to be here with you right now and talking to you. So. 327 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: Next Thing Foods is the company behind Kingdo, our plant 328 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: based chicken brand, and uh it's a company that let's 329 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 1: stablished in seeing the poor and in less than a 330 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: year we are already in Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai Amsterdam 331 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 1: and coming to the US right now. So where do 332 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,800 Speaker 1: you sell this stuff? I've noticed walking around Trader Joe's 333 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 1: that there seems to be um plant based or you know, 334 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 1: vegan versions of pretty much everything from cheese to meat balls. Um. 335 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: What what are your sales points? Well, we actually have 336 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,479 Speaker 1: a slightly different strategy. We start with chefs. We call 337 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: it gastronomy first, and we start with the most trendy 338 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: restaurants and chefs because we do believe that they play 339 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 1: a role in um showing consumers that plant basted foods 340 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 1: can be really believer that great food experience that we 341 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,680 Speaker 1: usually have at nice restaurants and behave at the highest 342 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: level of astronomy. What do you see out there? Unfortunately 343 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: today are mostly only nuggets and tenders, which are nothing 344 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: wrong with that, but we do believe that we can 345 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 1: do better and we can really have a product that 346 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 1: caters to the highest level of food experience. So is 347 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: that a give us a sense of kind of kind 348 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: of like is it restaurants and what types of restaurants 349 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 1: are you selling into? So, yes, it is restaurants. Around 350 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 1: the world, we have restaurants serving tindle in many different 351 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: shapes and formats. As for the preparation of the chefs, UM, 352 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: it's extremely versatile. Therefore they can really prepare as they prefer. 353 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: And UM, the profile of restaurants that we have right 354 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: now would range from you know, find Dyning, Mission and 355 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: Stars all the way to casual neighborhood UM restaurants with 356 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: their you know, their own chefs creations in house, and 357 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 1: then maybe multiple units like five, ten up to forty units. 358 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: That's what we have been seeing around the world right now. 359 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: The Gray Dog is a restaurant here, orchard grocer exactly. UM, 360 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,600 Speaker 1: what just what I needed in hell A, Miami's Little Brazil. 361 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: So we we have some of these restaurants here. What 362 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 1: kind of growth are you looking at? What kind of 363 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: growth are you forecasting? Um? We are all about creating 364 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,040 Speaker 1: the most meaningful impact in the food system we can. 365 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: And I mean I came from the from the poetry industry, 366 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: and while the meat industry has served as well in 367 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 1: the last two that gets to really provide protein to humanity. 368 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: We believe that there's a better technology to produce what 369 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: we like, which is basically ingredient. Uh, and we do 370 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 1: it without the birds. So our ambition is to take 371 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 1: a relevant share out of the birds on the chicken 372 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: industry and provide consumers for more sustainable, equally delicious and 373 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: as nutritional as or even better than than than chicken. 374 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: That's our goal. I gotta say, have you seen uh 375 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,159 Speaker 1: the film Baraca? Paul No I ask I always ask this, 376 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: and you you never go and watch it. Have you 377 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 1: seen this film? Andre Baraca documentary? There's no um, there's 378 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 1: no dialogue. Um. They just have a three part series 379 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 1: where they show um city life production. I think of 380 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: cigarettes and then uh poultry factory and it just makes 381 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: you never want to eat chicken again when you look 382 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 1: at and I missed this, when you look at how 383 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 1: factory um farms Uh, I guess raise although it seems 384 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: like the wrong word and produced chicken. It's just horrible. 385 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: But of course it tastes so good, you know, Andre, 386 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: how do you replicate the delicious nous of a chick 387 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 1: fil a with m plant based proteins? Now, you're absolutely right, 388 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: um in the I haven't watched the movie, but I will. UM. 389 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: What I can tell is that I have worked for 390 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 1: over seven years in the poetry industry, and I think 391 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:39,160 Speaker 1: what happens is that we um as consumers, as meat lovers, um, 392 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: we like the ingredient. I think that, as you said, 393 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 1: it's so delicious, right, and you know it's nutricious, as 394 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: delicious as fibers versas tile. Chicken is the only global 395 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: animal protein, truly global and really local everywhere. So we 396 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,920 Speaker 1: recognize that from a consumer perspective. But as you said, 397 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 1: I also don't know anyone who went to a poetry factory, 398 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,120 Speaker 1: including you know, all of us who came from the industry, 399 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: who goes to a pulture factory and get out of 400 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: the saying that they're craving chicken or any animal after 401 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: seeing the process in which we get the animals from. 402 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: It's really um something that it's it's you know, it's 403 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 1: not sustainable, it's not efficient, and it's time for us 404 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,640 Speaker 1: to improve that. How we do that is very simple. Actually, 405 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: it's harder to justify the animal farming, if you think 406 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,400 Speaker 1: about it, than it is to to to just explain 407 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 1: how we get you know, soy water, coconut bad some 408 00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 1: flower oil through you know, process and technology. We just 409 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: don't transform that in what we want. We want the fibers, 410 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 1: we want to taste, We want this spatch and for 411 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 1: none of that, we need an animal in between. I 412 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,400 Speaker 1: guess it's just that we kind of take it for granted, 413 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: but it doesn't make any sense for us to just 414 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 1: keep raising billions and billions of animals just to get 415 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,719 Speaker 1: a little bit of meat out of each one of them. 416 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 1: All right, Andre, thanks so much for joining us. Really 417 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: appreciated inching part of the food chain. Andrea Manennaz, co 418 00:22:54,600 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 1: founder and Andreas it Menzi's It's menis Is And yes, 419 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 1: thank you so much for the chat. I'm very happy 420 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 1: that everyone listening to us right now they can't affective 421 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: the trite single ordering on Go Valley anywhere in the US, 422 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,240 Speaker 1: prepared by Chad Chad Rosenthal in the Motive Preston. All right, Andre, 423 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much. We really appreciate that. Thanks for 424 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and 425 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform 426 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt 427 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 1: Miller V three. Pt On False Sweeney I'm on Twitter 428 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch 429 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 1: us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio