1 00:00:02,960 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts. 2 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 2: Radio news. 3 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 4 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 5 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: and then Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 6 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 3: Breaking news here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Is Israel 9 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 3: has confirmed that it has eliminated the head of Hamas, 10 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 3: the architect, they say, of the October seventh attack on 11 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 3: Israel from last year. Yaya sin War has been killed 12 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 3: by the Israeli Defense forces along with two others. Were 13 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 3: awaiting a press conference, a news conference from Israeli Prime 14 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,919 Speaker 3: Minister Benjamin netanyahuo where we could expect Joe to hear 15 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:53,120 Speaker 3: more details, not just on how exactly the Israeli military 16 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,080 Speaker 3: was able to do this, but what is going to 17 00:00:56,120 --> 00:01:00,120 Speaker 3: happen next now that another leader of an Iranian proxy 18 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 3: has been killed by Israel. 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,000 Speaker 4: It is pretty remarkable, Kailey, considering the number of operations 20 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 4: precision strikes that we've seen conducted by the IDF and 21 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 4: GAZA over the last year plus. Nick Wadams, who runs 22 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 4: our national security coverage here in Washington, was implying a 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,759 Speaker 4: bit earlier that this may not have in fact been a. 24 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 5: Direct attack intended to find. 25 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 4: Yaya Sinhwar, that they were targeting other Hamas leaders and 26 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 4: only discovered after the fact that they had in fact 27 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 4: reached the top of the chain. Here with big questions 28 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 4: on what we're going to hear ahead from Benjamin Netanya, 29 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:34,039 Speaker 4: who we bring you live to Israel right now. Bloomberg 30 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 4: reporter Dan Williams is in Jerusalem with the very latest 31 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 4: and Dan, it's great to have you back with us 32 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 4: here on balance of power. What will we hear from 33 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 4: the Prime Minister later this hour? 34 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 6: I imagine he will formally announce the death of Yakya Sinhoa. 35 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 6: He may make some sort of overture to what remains 36 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 6: of Hamas leadership in Gaza, given that they still hold 37 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 6: one hundred and one hostages that Israel is hoping to recover. 38 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 6: And obviously there will be some concern now that Hamas 39 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 6: has been decapitated in the man who literally had the 40 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 6: last say on the fate of those hostages is dead, 41 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 6: that they may be lost, they may be at greater risk, 42 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 6: or indeed, this may be an opportunity for some kind 43 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 6: of breakthrough in a negotiated hostage release. He may also 44 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 6: give some operational details. You noted that the picture is 45 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 6: a bit unclear. What we're hearing so far is that 46 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 6: this killing, this decapitation of Hamas was really a function 47 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 6: of happenstance. Apparently a group of trainee tank commanders who 48 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 6: were secondered from their training base to the Gaza offensive, 49 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 6: spotted a number of gunmen in a building in the 50 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 6: south of Gaza yesterday opened fire, and this morning, when 51 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 6: they returned on foot to scour the ruins and see 52 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 6: who was there, they found what appeared to them to 53 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 6: be Sinhoa from a basic physical match. Apparently another of 54 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 6: the bodies belonged to a battalion commander from Hamas who 55 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 6: was known to effect that we've been Sinha's military secretary, 56 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 6: So they added those findings together. There are photographs of 57 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 6: his teeth, match to dental records, apparently, fingerprints, DNA tests, 58 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 6: and in recent minutes the word has come through officially. 59 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 6: Then indeed, it is yef Ya Sinoir, the leader of 60 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 6: Hamas in Gas, the overall leader of Hamas is dead. 61 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 3: Well, So what happens next within the ranks of Hamas 62 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 3: Dan is the Israeli Foreign Ministry, and its statement pointed 63 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 3: out that his death creates a possibility for what they 64 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 3: say is an immediate release of the abductees that were 65 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 3: taken on October seven. Who would it be negotiating that 66 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:32,119 Speaker 3: on behalf. 67 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 7: Of her Maas? 68 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 6: Now that's an excellent question. It's unclear. Netto may shed 69 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 6: some light on that question. I think what's clear is Israel, 70 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 6: which set out at the beginning of this war war 71 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 6: that's now more than a year old, its core aim 72 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 6: of destroying, demolishing Hamas, eradicating it as a military threat 73 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 6: as a governing force that still holds. So I don't 74 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 6: think Israel is looking for a successful succession within Hamas 75 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 6: Gaza or even Hamas abroad. I think what they're looking 76 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 6: for is members of Hamas that are willing to step 77 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 6: away from the organization, maybe cut a deal for their 78 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 6: own survival, perhaps some kind of reward, and deliver those 79 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 6: hostages as many as many of them alive as possible. 80 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 6: So there will be a big question about succession. Hamas 81 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 6: has not formally confirmed yet Sinhwa's death. That could be 82 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 6: just be a function of logistics, because Israel's had possession 83 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 6: of his body. Since he was killed, Hamas may simply 84 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 6: know not have a way of corroborating his death themselves. 85 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 6: They may also be conferring as much as possible about succession. 86 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 6: I think it's worth noting that if they choose someone 87 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 6: from within Gaza, and Sinwar was very much a Gaza figure, 88 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 6: then that will allow them to keep portraying themselves as 89 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 6: resisting the Hamas offensive, surviving despite this really crushing offensive 90 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 6: in Gars at least for the time being, But that 91 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 6: successor will be living on borrowed time and on the 92 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 6: run without much of a public profile at all. If 93 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 6: they choose a leader replacement from outside Gaza, say one 94 00:04:57,120 --> 00:05:01,479 Speaker 6: based in Katdar or Turkey for sample, or Lebanon, then 95 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 6: that man may have survivability, but it would really seem 96 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 6: to be now an organization in exile rather than an 97 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 6: organization that actually had its own mini state in Gaza 98 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 6: for something like seventeen eighteen years. 99 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 4: Wow, that's an important characterization, Dan. In that case, should 100 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:21,359 Speaker 4: we anticipate any response from Hamas and what would be 101 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,800 Speaker 4: the reaction in Gaza and on the streets of Tehran 102 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 4: at this headline. 103 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 6: I think they'll be shocked, but I think that, given 104 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 6: you alluded to Tehran Hamas, this began as a Gaza war, 105 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 6: but it really is a region wide war between Israel 106 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,280 Speaker 6: and an Iranian axis, including even Iran itself. Keep in 107 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 6: mind that over two weeks ago, Iran fired some two 108 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 6: hundred ballistic missiles at Israel. We're still waiting for Israel's 109 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 6: retaliation and for Iran's retaliation for the retaliation, which would 110 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 6: really open up a new front and long distance front 111 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 6: in this multi front war. So the Iranian reaction will 112 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 6: be of great interest. But I imagine they're still taking 113 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 6: aboard the fact that Israel just a few weeks ago 114 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 6: decapitated Hesbala, would killing in Beirut of the Hesbal leader 115 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 6: Hassan Asralla. So really this has been a cascade of decapitations. 116 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 6: I think it would be fair to say that militarily, 117 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:12,479 Speaker 6: in terms of leadership, organizationally, the Iranian access these various 118 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 6: proxies on Israel's border are really on the rope, and 119 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 6: they may be weighing their actions and even their words 120 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 6: very very carefully. Hamas and Gaza will want to react, 121 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 6: but I don't think they have the ability militarily. Just 122 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 6: a few days ago the region, Israel, the world marked 123 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 6: the first anniversary of the October seventh Hamass attack, which 124 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 6: began this war. Back on October seventh, twenty twenty three, 125 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 6: they fired between three and four thousand rockets to really 126 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 6: sandbag Israel as they sent over fighters to carry out 127 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 6: a mass killing an abduction campaign. On the anniversary. They 128 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 6: wanted to show that they're still there, but they fired 129 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 6: something like fourteen rockets, So fourteen compared to four thousand 130 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 6: rockets a year prior gives you a pretty good idea 131 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 6: of where Hamas stands militarily nowadays. And Hesbala's keeping up. 132 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 6: It's far from Lebanon, but that has also been reduced 133 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 6: by Israeli precision strike, so I'm not sure militarily they're 134 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 6: in a position to escalate. I think they'll be weighing 135 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 6: strategy very carefully, and indeed, there may be elements of 136 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 6: Hamas in Gaza that decide it's time to cut a deal, 137 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 6: it's time to survive, maybe accept exile and life in 138 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 6: exile rather than death in Gaza. And if the cost 139 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 6: is releasing returning some or all of those hostages, that 140 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 6: may be an appealing prospect for some of them, well. 141 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 3: Dan As you suggest, Hamas is very much depleted militarily 142 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 3: now just having its most senior leader killed. How much 143 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 3: closer does this bring Israel to its stated objective of 144 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 3: the elimination of Hamas in Gaza. 145 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 6: It brings it much closer. Although we have been observing 146 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 6: and indeed the Biden administration has been very troubled by 147 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 6: what appears to be a renewed and effectively punishing Israeli 148 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 6: offensive in North Gaza, three districts outside Gaza City that 149 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 6: have really exacerbated the humanitarian situation there. Israel says it 150 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 6: was forced to move in again. I think this is 151 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 6: maybe the third or the fourth time on the ground 152 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 6: because it had to crush an attempt by Hamas to regroup. Indeed, 153 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 6: they said earlier this morning that they managed with an 154 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 6: air strike to kill a large number of Islamik Jahad 155 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 6: and Hamas militants who were meeting in a former school 156 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 6: in that area. The Palestinian authorities say that the dead 157 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,119 Speaker 6: there were civilians. So according to Israel itself and certainly 158 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 6: according to Hamas, Hamas is not out for the count. 159 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 6: It's still trying to regroup. But I think everyone would 160 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 6: have agree it's really an insurgency, and I don't doubt 161 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 6: at all that this death, once it's taken aboard by 162 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 6: Hamas and by the rest of the Iranian access in 163 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 6: the region, will have a demoralizing effect. I think they 164 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 6: will be looking for successes, if not on a grand 165 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 6: political level, at least people who can continue commanding what 166 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 6: remains of Hamas forces on the ground. It'll be none 167 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 6: of the same scale, and it may even in spirit 168 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 6: embolden those Palestinians in Gaza were opposed to Hamas and 169 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 6: potentially are willing to take up the mantle in a 170 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 6: post Hamas post war Gaza. 171 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg's Dan Williams report live for US from 172 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 3: Israel on this news that the leader of Hamasi, Ayah 173 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 3: Sinwar has been killed by the Israeli military. Thank you 174 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 3: so much, and I would reiterate we are awaiting a 175 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 3: news conference from the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu that 176 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 3: is set to begin this hour. We will bring you 177 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 3: news from that, as well as from a US State 178 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 3: Department briefing that is set to begin in just a 179 00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 3: few minutes. But of course we need to consider that 180 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 3: this is happening against the backdrop of a presidential election 181 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 3: just weeks away here in the US. So we do 182 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 3: want to examine the political implications of events abroad here 183 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 3: at home and turn out to Larry Sabado, Director at 184 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 3: the UVA Center for Politics. Larry, we do want to 185 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 3: talk to you about the state of the presidential race overall. 186 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 3: But we could look specifically at one state like Michigan, 187 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 3: where there was a big protest vote against Biden during 188 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 3: the primary cycle over protest of Israel's conduct in the 189 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 3: war in Gaza and this administration's conduct as a result. 190 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 3: How is a development like this one likely to impact 191 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 3: some of those key demographics in a state like Michigan, 192 00:09:58,240 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 3: Muslim and Arab American voters. 193 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 8: If this leads to peace or some kind of ceasefire, 194 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 8: or it looks like we're even moving in that direction, 195 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 8: it would probably help Paris. Of course, you also have 196 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 8: to consider that Prime Minister net and Yahoo does not 197 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 8: really want to help Paris, quite the opposite. While he's 198 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 8: had his tussles with Donald Trump, he seems to favor 199 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 8: Donald Trump. That certainly has been suggested by the reporting 200 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 8: in the Middle East itself. So I'm not sure he 201 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 8: wants to do anything to help Paris. Maybe events will 202 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 8: take over and they will help her anyway. But it's 203 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 8: not been an easy fall for the Democrats, that's for sure. 204 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 4: Well, that's for sure indeed, And I wonder to what 205 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 4: extent the Democratic nominee should seize this opportunity if it 206 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 4: is one Larry. When it comes to messaging, we're going 207 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 4: to hear from Benjamin Nettyah who first it looks like. 208 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 4: But when it comes to a statement out of the 209 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 4: White House or the Vice President's office, or even hearing 210 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 4: from Kamala Harris on the campaign trail, how does she 211 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 4: position herself with this development in Israel? 212 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 8: She needs to break with Joe Biden. It's just that simple. Yes, 213 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 8: she was Joe Biden's vice president. I think well, I'll 214 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 8: tell you in a second. Everybody knows vice presidents don't 215 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 8: make the decisions. They may be in the room, they 216 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 8: may toss in a thought or two, but it's the 217 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 8: president who decides a direction. At this point, I think 218 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 8: she would be very wise to say that while we 219 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 8: continue to support Israel, and we would in a Harris administration, 220 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 8: she believes that the policy needs to be more balanced 221 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 8: and that the attacks on civilians in the Middle East 222 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,319 Speaker 8: and Gaza and Lovian and elsewhere have to at least 223 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 8: not have the full support of the United States. I 224 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 8: don't know that there's anything in particular that would pressure 225 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,680 Speaker 8: Prime Minister that in Yahoo she needs to break with him. 226 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 8: Just like Hubert Humphrey broke with Lyndon Johnson in October 227 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 8: of nineteen six about the Vietnam War. It brought him 228 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 8: from way back to finishing just a smidget below Richard 229 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 8: Nixon on election day. 230 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 3: Well as we consider a break with President Biden, Larry. 231 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 3: We did see Kamala Harrison an interview on Fox last 232 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 3: night saying her presidency would not be a continuation of 233 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:22,599 Speaker 3: Joe Biden's presidency. 234 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 7: But I would. 235 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 3: Reiterate there that was an interview on Fox, perhaps trying 236 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 3: to woo some Republicans who are reluctant to vote for 237 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. At this stage in the race, with just 238 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 3: weeks to go. How successful can either candidate be at 239 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 3: changing minds at this point? 240 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 8: Not very because the minds that are not mostly made 241 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 8: up to be blunt about it are not people that 242 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 8: are cross pressured and evenly divided between the two candidates 243 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 8: for the most part, For the most part, not every case, 244 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 8: but for the most part, they are people who don't 245 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 8: follow follow politics very closely. How could anyone not have 246 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 8: an opinion at least about Donald Trump after nine years 247 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 8: in when she was in our living rooms every single 248 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 8: day doing controversial things. I mean really, so a lot 249 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 8: of them won't vote. And that's the amusing part of this. 250 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 8: People keep focusing in the press, keeps focusing on the 251 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:22,200 Speaker 8: wrong element. It isn't the quote undecided, because there aren't many. 252 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 8: It's about motivation and enthusiasm. How many of both sides 253 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,720 Speaker 8: turn up. That's what we need to look at. 254 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 4: Kamala Harris made it clear in her conversation on Fox 255 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,479 Speaker 4: News that in fact, she would not be a continuation 256 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 4: of the Biden White House. That has been the takeaway 257 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 4: here as we've been discussing on balance of power from 258 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 4: this conversation that has happened at last I just wonder, Larry, 259 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 4: to what extent these attempts to speak to certain narrow demographics, 260 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 4: whether it's black men for Kamala Harris or suburban women 261 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 4: for don Trump, matter When we're this close to the 262 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 4: election and the slice of undecided voters. 263 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 8: Is so thin, it probably doesn't matter very much. I mean, 264 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 8: you have to have something to cover every day, right, 265 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 8: You've got a lot of hours there. Newspapers have a 266 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 8: lot of space to fill, no longer on paper, but 267 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:23,720 Speaker 8: at least online. So you focus on the little controversies 268 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 8: and the little issues and the little ideas that come 269 00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 8: forth from polling suggesting this group is available or that 270 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 8: group is available. But the truth is, not much is 271 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 8: going to change unless there's a big October surprise. Now 272 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 8: the Middle East counts, that would be a big October surprise. 273 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 8: October surprises have affected the results of presidential elections in 274 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 8: the last fifty years several times, and we've had more 275 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 8: October surprises that haven't affected the results. But you look 276 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 8: for those things, and it's at the end when people 277 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 8: really pay attention, even the people who haven't paid the 278 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 8: slow I had just attention up to. 279 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 3: Now, Larry, we just have a minute left. But barring 280 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 3: in October surprise, if you had to call this thing 281 00:15:08,640 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 3: right now, who do you think wins? 282 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 7: Oh? 283 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 8: I wouldn't call it. I'm not going to help you 284 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 8: out there. I'm sorry you're gonna have to fill that 285 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:16,720 Speaker 8: minute something else. 286 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 1: Well, is it. 287 00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 3: Unique to this cycle? How difficult it is is it 288 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 3: unique to this cycle? Would you have felt more comfortable 289 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty or twenty sixteen. 290 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 8: Well, the obvious answer is yes. Particularly well, we got 291 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 8: it right in twenty twenty and wrong in twenty sixteen, 292 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,680 Speaker 8: so I would have felt very comfortable in twenty twenty. 293 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 8: But the truth is, having just told you there could 294 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 8: be an October surprise that could rearrange the one or 295 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 8: two percent, that's all you have to switch one or 296 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 8: two percent to one side of the other. I'm going 297 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 8: to wait for the surprises, and if they don't come, 298 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 8: you know, I'll just buy myself an extra birthday gift. 299 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 8: I don't know. 300 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 5: She had to Larry absolutely. I love that. 301 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 4: Larry Sabadog to see you from, of course, the University 302 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 4: of Virginia Center for Politics. 303 00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 5: I'm Joe Matthew. She is Kaylee Lyons. We have a 304 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 5: lot more ahead. 305 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 306 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 307 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 1: ron Oro with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also 308 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 309 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty This. 310 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 4: Is live coverage on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Joe 311 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 4: Matthew alongside Kaylee Lions in Washington here on Balance of Power, 312 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 4: even showing you images for those of you with us 313 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 4: on Bloomberg TV and on YouTube of Benjamin Nett and 314 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 4: Yahoo delivering a message by video right now to the 315 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 4: people of Israel. He's speaking in Hebrew and did say 316 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 4: earlier he would like to salute all of the GSS, 317 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 4: the IDF. There is no better than them, he said. 318 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 4: It is now more clear than ever before that good 319 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 4: will prevail over evil. The war has not ended yet, 320 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 4: Benjamin Nett Yah who says it is hard and we 321 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 4: have paid heavy prices. This is a story that started developing, Kaylee, 322 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 4: just a couple of hours ago. Here confirmed within the 323 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 4: last hour. If you're just joining us, Israel now confirming 324 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 4: the death of Yaya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, in 325 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 4: an operation that took place earlier in Gaza. It's a 326 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 4: pleasure to bring in the voice of Jane Harmon now 327 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 4: of course, former congresswoman, former Chair of the Intelligence Committee, 328 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 4: now Chair of the National Defense Strategy Commission. She was 329 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 4: former ranking member of House Intelligence and has been exposed 330 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 4: to this story for many years. 331 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 5: Jane, welcome back. It's good to see you. The significance 332 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 5: of this development. 333 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 2: Today huge, absolutely huge, and an opportunity to reset the 334 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 2: table and move in a better direction. 335 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 7: Let me tell you a couple things. 336 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 9: First. 337 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 7: Number one, Sinoar will. 338 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 2: Not be missed except by the radical Hamas fighters, and 339 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:57,879 Speaker 2: let us hope that the absence of him will create 340 00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 2: disarray among them. 341 00:17:59,080 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 7: That's one. 342 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 2: Er two who the IDF did a masterful job. It 343 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 2: is important that this was a routine so I understand 344 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 2: patrol of a tunnel, and they randomly ran into Sinhwar, 345 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 2: fortunately not surrounded by hostages. I had been afraid that 346 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,719 Speaker 2: the final act here would be Sinwar blowing himself up 347 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 2: with the hostages around him. So there is the opportunity, 348 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,160 Speaker 2: if they are still alive, to get the hostages back. 349 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 2: And what I'd like to suggest here is that the 350 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 2: Sunni Arab countries way in and help suggest a path forward. 351 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 2: There is one where that has been put on the 352 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 2: table by the Biden administration, which is a ceasefire return 353 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 2: of the hostages and a plan, and not just that, 354 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 2: a plan to move toward two states. And I think 355 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 2: if the if the neighborhood embraces that it's crucially important 356 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 2: for two reasons. One, I think it's the best path 357 00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 2: to guarantee Israel security. But number two, it will also 358 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 2: hold Iran and check and I'm still very worried about 359 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 2: Iran funding proxies. And I worry that Hesbala is still 360 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:08,800 Speaker 2: attacking Israel, as hard as that is to believe. And 361 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 2: one more point, the US did some bombing against the Houthis, 362 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 2: I think today, and that tells me that we cannot 363 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 2: pivot out of the region. 364 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 7: Our leadership is more needed than ever. 365 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 3: YEP sent those b twos the Houthis way, Jane, just 366 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 3: to reiterate for our audience here on Bloomberg TV and radio. 367 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,879 Speaker 3: While the Prime Minister did spreak in Hebrew, we've gotten 368 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 3: some translation of his remarks, including what he said about 369 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,679 Speaker 3: the hostages still being held. He said, I call on 370 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 3: all those holding our captives. We will allow any of 371 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 3: you who lays down his gun and returns our hostages 372 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,359 Speaker 3: to come out and live. He says, by the same token, 373 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 3: I say, the blood of anyone who harms our hostages 374 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 3: is forfeit. We will settle the score with him. Jane, 375 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 3: as you just expressed there still concern about these proxies 376 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 3: about Iran itself. Are you worried that Israel, through its 377 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 3: mo not just today, but over the course of the 378 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 3: last several weeks and months, may have made the situation 379 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 3: for the hostages, the situation itself just more dangerous rather 380 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 3: than seafer. Are we sure this is necessarily going to 381 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,880 Speaker 3: have a positive effect. 382 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 2: Well, first of all, it's the first time I'm hearing 383 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 2: about what det and Yahu said about if you surrender 384 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 2: and lay down your arms will give you say passege here. 385 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 2: That's what I'm hearing, and that may be a path 386 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 2: to get the hostages back. Let's understand there are still 387 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 2: American hostages too in harm's way, and this has been 388 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 2: a full year in dire conditions, so we desperately need 389 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,400 Speaker 2: that peace. And I applaud the Prime Minister for suggesting 390 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: that what about more radicalized populations? 391 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 7: I think that's what you're asking me. Can this really 392 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 7: be over? 393 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 2: I don't know the answer to that, but I think 394 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 2: it cannot be over if all that happens is constant attacks, 395 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,960 Speaker 2: both in Gaza and in Lebanon. There is an opportunity 396 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:04,239 Speaker 2: here for the entire neighborhood. Remember this was started by 397 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 2: the Trump administration with the Abraham Accords for the neighborhood 398 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:12,240 Speaker 2: to come together work with Israel on two things. One 399 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 2: is a positive relationship and the second is a path 400 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 2: to two states. If this happens, that's a huge buffer 401 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 2: to Iran, which continues to empower all these proxy groups 402 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,199 Speaker 2: around the neighborhood, some of which are harming the US. 403 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,880 Speaker 2: Take the Huthis and US ships, and we have bases 404 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,400 Speaker 2: throughout the neighborhood. We must stay, we must offer leadership. 405 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 2: I don't think this should be a bi partisan moment 406 00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 2: in America. I think we should all salute this victory 407 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 2: by the IDF and also embrace the notion that this 408 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 2: is really an opportunity for a security deal that will 409 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:55,199 Speaker 2: help everyone and prevent Iran from causing more damage in 410 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 2: the region. 411 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 5: You mentioned the neighborhood, Jane. 412 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 4: With all of that said, we've learned that present and 413 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 4: Biden has been briefed on these developments on Air Force 414 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 4: One on his way to Germany. To what extent will 415 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 4: Sinwar's death color his talks with our European allies. 416 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,879 Speaker 7: Well, I think I'm guessing. I don't know. 417 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 2: He hasn't landed yet that he will applaud the IDF. 418 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,959 Speaker 2: It was the Biden idea of building on the Trump 419 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 2: idea for Saudi Arabia to take the lead in building 420 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,959 Speaker 2: an arrangement with Israel. Most people think that Hamas attacked 421 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 2: when it did because Israel was in some internal disarray, 422 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 2: but also because they wanted to blow up that deal. 423 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 2: So I think he should be positive about this. I 424 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 2: also think it's great that he's going to Europe and 425 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 2: hopefully with NATO to help Zelensky at a time of 426 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 2: dire need, when this war against Russian aggression. Now is 427 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 2: the time before the snow comes, for Israel to provide 428 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 2: the aided, for NATO to provide the aid it has promised, 429 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 2: and kudos to NATO, and for the US to continue 430 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: stepping up. 431 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 7: And if we can do that. 432 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 2: I do see an opportunity for some sort and everyone's 433 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 2: calling for this, some sort of negotiated end to this war, 434 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 2: negotiated by Zelenski, not by US, and for a path 435 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 2: to NATO membership. It's crucial that once this war ends, 436 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,720 Speaker 2: that there be a clear path to NATO membership for Ukraine, 437 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 2: which is the best buffer for Europe. And US against 438 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:34,920 Speaker 2: Russian aggressions spreading further. 439 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 3: Well, Jane, I guess it becomes a question of timing. 440 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 3: Is we consider President Biden here in his final months 441 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,360 Speaker 3: in office, is it likely we are going to see 442 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 3: a resolution to either of these conflicts, or at least 443 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 3: material steps toward that resolution while he's still President of 444 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: the United States. 445 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:55,399 Speaker 7: I hope so. 446 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 2: And I don't only say that because I would like 447 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 2: Biden's legacy to be solid, and I would like it 448 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,879 Speaker 2: to be solid, but also because United States leadership is 449 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 2: so crucial in both contexts, and I would like him 450 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,640 Speaker 2: when he leaves, and I would say this about any 451 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 2: president to set the table for the next president, whoever. 452 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:18,719 Speaker 2: That is to show that US leadership in a very 453 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,520 Speaker 2: different world, not the liberal world order that I have 454 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:26,160 Speaker 2: always that I've grown up under, but a new, revived 455 00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,640 Speaker 2: world order where partners and allies play a crucial role, 456 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 2: and the global South is included. That world order, I 457 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 2: think needs a fair resolution of the Ukraine matter and 458 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 2: a pushback against unprovoked Russian aggression, and a security deal 459 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,719 Speaker 2: for Israel where there are two states in the region 460 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 2: with mutual agreements so that both sides live in peace. 461 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 2: And Israel and the Sunni neighborhood together push against Iranian 462 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,120 Speaker 2: aggression and just maybe. 463 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 7: Be a little hopeful here. 464 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 2: Aron understands that it has to change its course and 465 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,639 Speaker 2: live peaceful in the region. The alternative is horrible, just 466 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,439 Speaker 2: simply horrible, and more death and destruction serves no good cause. 467 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 4: Jane the presspool, traveling today with Vice President Harris, who's 468 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,560 Speaker 4: holding campaign events in Wisconsin, is letting us know that 469 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,919 Speaker 4: she's going to be making a statement on this. She 470 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 4: will speak from Milwaukee on the situation today in Israel. 471 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 4: Does she need to say something different than Joe Biden. 472 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:40,679 Speaker 2: Well, I think I hope that she will commend IDF 473 00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:46,160 Speaker 2: and Israel for an important victory. The Biden policy, which 474 00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,399 Speaker 2: I've just talked about, is one that I fully embrace 475 00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 2: and I think she does, which is this Saudi deal 476 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 2: where the region buys into a security path for everyone. 477 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 2: But I do think she has to applaud what is 478 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 2: just it's happened, and I hope former President Trump does too. 479 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,680 Speaker 2: I don't think partisanship is necessary here. I think US 480 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,800 Speaker 2: leadership is necessary here. 481 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,719 Speaker 3: Well, as we're discussing the presidential election in these two conflicts, 482 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 3: happening in the background with two adversaries. There's the question 483 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 3: of Iran's physical threat that opposes to Israel or to 484 00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:24,439 Speaker 3: US interests in the Middle East, the question of Russia 485 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 3: and the threat it poses to Ukraine. Obviously, there's also 486 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 3: the question of the influence these two powers could have 487 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 3: on the election. How concerned are you about that, just 488 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,560 Speaker 3: weeks to go until election date, Jane attempts to disrupt 489 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:39,520 Speaker 3: the American democratic process. 490 00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,040 Speaker 2: Well, I'm very concerned about it. First of all, there 491 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,879 Speaker 2: are attempts inside America to disrupt the process, which concerned me. 492 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 2: But there is malign influence, no question. Our intelligence community 493 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:59,120 Speaker 2: has publicly stated this by Russia, China, Iran in our 494 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 2: current election. I'm not sure about North Korea. But that 495 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 2: four way alliance of grievance or whatever you want to 496 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 2: call it, is very disturbing. And this commission Commission on 497 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 2: National Defense Strategy that I just shaired cites that as 498 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 2: a reason why the world is as are more dangerous 499 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 2: than it has been since World War Two, and why 500 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 2: US leadership is so necessary. So I'm very concerned, and 501 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 2: I think more will happen what I would like to happen, 502 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: And there are bipartisan groups out there. I belong to 503 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 2: a couple of them trying to make this case to voters. 504 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 2: I'd like voters to understand whether the information they're hearing, 505 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:40,119 Speaker 2: the material they're reading, is accurate or not, because obviously 506 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 2: we would like this to be a fair and free election, 507 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 2: and we would like as many people as possible to participate, 508 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 2: however they choose to vote. 509 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,160 Speaker 4: You mentioned the airstrikes in the last twenty four hours 510 00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:55,920 Speaker 4: that the US conducted in Yemen Jane awfully important when 511 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,919 Speaker 4: you consider the potential for another back and forth between 512 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 4: Israel and Iran. We'd dropped some heavy ordinance to destroy 513 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 4: underground facilities there, to send a message, presumably a projection 514 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,880 Speaker 4: of power, to let Roan know what we're capable of here. 515 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 4: Will that help to put guardrails around whatever Iran does next? 516 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:15,880 Speaker 7: Well, I hope. 517 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,800 Speaker 2: So let's understand that these proxy groups of Iran are 518 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 2: hugely capable. No one thought Hamas it was a failure 519 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 2: of imagination that Hamas could do what it did on 520 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,679 Speaker 2: October seventh of last year. No one thought that Hasbola 521 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 2: was as capable as it has turned out to be, 522 00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 2: that these missiles and rockets hidden in basements at the 523 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 2: border would be as destructive as they have been over 524 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 2: a very long period, and no one thought the who 525 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 2: this would be as capable. Iran is claiming it's not 526 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:48,280 Speaker 2: giving direction to these groups, but it helped to arm them, 527 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 2: and it helped to feed their radical ideology calling for 528 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 2: the destruction of Israel. No one should miss that the 529 00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,959 Speaker 2: threats to Israel are real. Israel's right to defend itself 530 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 2: is real. But what I'm saying is tactics are one thing. 531 00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,840 Speaker 2: A longer term strategy is what's needed now, and I 532 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 2: think the US cannot pivot out of the region. Our 533 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 2: leadership is crucial, and working with the Sunny neighborhood, I 534 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 2: think we can really get someone to help. 535 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:17,640 Speaker 3: We'll leave it on that note. Jane Harmon, chair of 536 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 3: the National Defense Strategy Commission and former Congresswoman. 537 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 538 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay, and 539 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 1: then Rounto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand 540 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 541 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,479 Speaker 4: I want to add the voice of Adam Hodge, who 542 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 4: was watching along with all of us, and of course 543 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 4: he brings his own experience at Bully Pulpit International, and 544 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,280 Speaker 4: I want to get into what is coming out of 545 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 4: Israel today in a moment, Adam as you of course 546 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 4: spent time on the White House National Security Council. But 547 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 4: as far as the media arounds go, I don't know 548 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 4: how many more of these we're going to get. Donald 549 00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 4: Trump on Bloomberg this week on Univision, Kamala Harris at 550 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 4: last on Fox Is this the last media gasp of 551 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 4: this campaign? 552 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: Were getting there? 553 00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 9: Joe, No question. I think we are at the point. 554 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 9: And you've heard from the Harris campaign like they're clearly 555 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 9: trying to build a broader coalition. Right They're going around 556 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,959 Speaker 9: the country event yesterday on Fox News and also an 557 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 9: event with former Trump administration officials, but that was preceded 558 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,040 Speaker 9: by events in Detroit focused on black men and turning 559 00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 9: out black voters. So my conversations with the campaign, they're 560 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,239 Speaker 9: clearly trying to build a broader coalition because they think 561 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:40,479 Speaker 9: that's their ticket to victory. 562 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 4: I know both campaigns are going after what they see 563 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 4: as their pockets of weakness. You just mentioned young black 564 00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,520 Speaker 4: men for Kamala Harris even though she was on Fox 565 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,239 Speaker 4: News last night. That's been a big thrust behind her 566 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,280 Speaker 4: media appearances. Most recently, we saw her sit down with 567 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 4: Charlemagne on The Breakfast Club a day earlier. Donald Trump, 568 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 4: of course, looking at this massive gender gap and held 569 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 4: a town hall with all female voters yesterday on Fox. 570 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 4: Where's your head on this, Adam, I mean, do we 571 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 4: really believe that there's this big pocket of undecided voters 572 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 4: out there? Are we just nibbled around the edges with 573 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 4: less than three weeks to go. 574 00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 9: I think for the most part, we're nibbling around the edges. 575 00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 9: I think there is no question the campaigns feel they 576 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 9: have to do whatever they can to drive up the 577 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,360 Speaker 9: margins wherever they can. And so you know, whether it's 578 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 9: crisscrossing the state of Wisconsin trying to find any voters 579 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:39,200 Speaker 9: and pockets. Ironically, it's in areas that Barack Obama performed 580 00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 9: particularly well with in both of his campaigns inwousand and 581 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 9: eight and twenty twelve, that Hillary Clinton didn't do quite 582 00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 9: as well in twenty sixteen, and so you see the 583 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 9: Harris campaign really trying to go to different areas of 584 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 9: the country, different areas of the swing states, beyond just 585 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 9: the big cities that try to both drive up her 586 00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:02,720 Speaker 9: margins also to hold down Donald Trump's margins in some 587 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 9: of these swing counties, some of these rhetor counties, and 588 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 9: so appearing with former Trump administration officials makes a lot 589 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 9: of sense that you could think about the Fox News 590 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,880 Speaker 9: interview as also trying to appeal to those Nicki Haley voters, right, 591 00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 9: the folks who despite the fact that she was out 592 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,760 Speaker 9: of the race, still came out to vote for her 593 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 9: in the primary. I think the campaign feels like there's 594 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,200 Speaker 9: a way to broaden the coalition, to get more people 595 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 9: on board, and that may be the ultimate thing that 596 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 9: tips the balance on election day. 597 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:31,520 Speaker 5: I get the effort. 598 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:35,680 Speaker 4: I just wonder if these interviews or media appearances actually 599 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 4: move a voter. You sit down and watch a forty 600 00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 4: five minute interview or a twenty minute interview, does that 601 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 4: actually change the way you feel about someone or does 602 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 4: it simply acknowledge or even amplify existing feelings. 603 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 5: Republicans thought Brett beharwe. 604 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:56,760 Speaker 4: Last night, Democrats thought Kamala Harris owned Fox News? 605 00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 5: Does it change anything? 606 00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 9: The Fox News interview actually is interesting because I think 607 00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 9: there are again that that segment of Nikki Haley type 608 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,360 Speaker 9: voters who aren't sure they would. They don't think they 609 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,160 Speaker 9: want to vote for Donald Trump, but they're not quite 610 00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:14,400 Speaker 9: convinced they want to vote for her. They're not watching 611 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 9: MSNBC or No Offense Bloomberg TV on a daily basis, 612 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,840 Speaker 9: right like they're watching the tuned into Fox News, and 613 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 9: so they should turn on Bloomberg and watch it, especially 614 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 9: during you know, when Joe, when you're on. But I 615 00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,040 Speaker 9: think that where they really need to try to focus 616 00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,360 Speaker 9: is grow that that base, try to expand that coalition. 617 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 9: And so that's where the focus is. Remember, we're not 618 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 9: going to get another debate, So if they can find 619 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 9: another audience, find bigger audiences where they can reach more voters, 620 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,160 Speaker 9: that is important as we get into this home stretch 621 00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 9: of the campaign. 622 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 4: I wonder if Joe Rogan is next. Apparently Kamala Harris 623 00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 4: says she's going to do it. Donald Trump, you never know, 624 00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 4: could show up. Joe Rogan seems to be pretty friendly 625 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 4: to Donald Trump. Is she ready for a conversation like 626 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 4: that that the stakes get higher? Along with some of 627 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:09,200 Speaker 4: these different interviews here, this is not Brett Baer sitting 628 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,759 Speaker 4: down on Fox News Joe Rogan can kind of do 629 00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 4: whatever he wants, right, But look. 630 00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 9: If you want to be commander in chief, you want 631 00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,200 Speaker 9: to be president of the United State, it's like you got. 632 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 5: To be able to take the heat. 633 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 9: So yeah, I think Kamala Harris has certainly tried and 634 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,720 Speaker 9: showed over the last few weeks that she's willing to 635 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:29,360 Speaker 9: take and talk to whoever she can and try to 636 00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 9: broaden the coalition. I think it's smart and I think 637 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:35,600 Speaker 9: you'll see more of those conversations throughout the campaign. And 638 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 9: I also look back to the interview with Charlottage and 639 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,840 Speaker 9: the God that was not necessarily you know, a friendly 640 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 9: kind of like lay up interview. I mean they robe 641 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 9: and asked some tough questions. Callers called in and asked 642 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 9: some tough questions. 643 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:47,960 Speaker 7: You know. 644 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:52,480 Speaker 9: There's also no substitute for taking questions from the voter directly. 645 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:54,919 Speaker 9: And that jumped out to me from Trump's town hall, 646 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,800 Speaker 9: the Univision town hall, I mean, the one that's rocketing 647 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,759 Speaker 9: around sort of the afters, you know, his question about 648 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 9: January sixth, really and telling somebody, if you don't want 649 00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,440 Speaker 9: to vote for me, don't vote for me. That's that's 650 00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 9: you know, that really rubs people the wrong way. 651 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:11,760 Speaker 5: It's an interesting appeal. 652 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:13,839 Speaker 4: I do wonder what Kamala Harris will do, and Joe 653 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 4: Rogan lights the joint during that interview, but we can 654 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,160 Speaker 4: come back around when that happens. I've got to ask you, Adam, 655 00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 4: about what's coming out of Israel today and whether there's 656 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,319 Speaker 4: an impact on the campaign. It does seem that every 657 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,839 Speaker 4: action has an equal and opposite reaction. And right now 658 00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,680 Speaker 4: the IDF says it has killed the leader of Hamas 659 00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:33,960 Speaker 4: yeah Yah Sinwar in an operation in Gaza. Every headline 660 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,799 Speaker 4: like this, Adam reminds people of the administration stand on 661 00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,480 Speaker 4: this knowing that Joe Biden ran into some trouble with 662 00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:45,960 Speaker 4: Progressive Democrats and still feels that pushback on his Israel policy. 663 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,320 Speaker 4: You're a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council 664 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 4: in our remaining moment here, Adam, how important is this development. 665 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 9: Look, there's no question that you know Sinwar was a terrorist, 666 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:01,120 Speaker 9: and if you know, he's got blood in his hands 667 00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 9: and was the mastermind behind October seventh. But so it's 668 00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 9: no surprise. Israel was very clear from the very beginning 669 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 9: that he is h his time, his days. We were 670 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,319 Speaker 9: numbered as far as they were concerned, and they were 671 00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 9: going to do what they could to take him out. 672 00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:18,480 Speaker 9: I think there is a broader question going forward about 673 00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 9: you know, how Israel continues to defend itself, and especially 674 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,560 Speaker 9: watching all the events on the northern border, the White 675 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,880 Speaker 9: House clearly is trying to keep a lid on the 676 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 9: Middle East and prevent a wider regional war. I think 677 00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,160 Speaker 9: it's you know, holding on by you know threads at 678 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,479 Speaker 9: the moment. But if they can get that, we're all 679 00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:42,480 Speaker 9: better served by avoiding broader escalation in the region, and 680 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,400 Speaker 9: so the right to focus on trying to help prevent 681 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,160 Speaker 9: that water regional war. And I think that's something that 682 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,839 Speaker 9: voters don't necessarily put foreign policy top of the list, 683 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 9: but Hamil Harris has to hope that it remains as 684 00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:56,960 Speaker 9: quite as possible. 685 00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,399 Speaker 5: There could be a lot more where this came from. Adam. 686 00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,480 Speaker 5: I'm glad you could join us today. Appreciate it very much. 687 00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:08,239 Speaker 4: From Bully Pulpit International, where he's managing director. That's Adam Hodge. 688 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:13,440 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 689 00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 4: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify. 690 00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 5: Or wherever you get your podcasts. 691 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,960 Speaker 4: And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 692 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,120 Speaker 4: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.