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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 2: Here we got growing into.

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Speaker 3: We're saying it to catch.

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Speaker 2: We'll see the most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win.

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Speaker 3: Oh god, that's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kaba.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybaun of The Action Network. This

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Speaker 1: is your NFL Playoff Divisional Round betting preview. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk sides, totals, props, money lines, and of course crack

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Speaker 1: open our weekend six pack of against the spread bets

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Speaker 1: with the help of my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: of Degenerate Nation, Caide Otton.

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Speaker 2: Stucky Stucky, what's going on?

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Speaker 1: Man?

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Speaker 3: Step brother Kate Outen was fun right from the first

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Speaker 3: I mean the first play of the game or second,

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Speaker 3: the first completion. Getting the longest reception over was fun.

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Speaker 3: And I was out at a bar with our producer

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Speaker 3: Matt Mitchell and Evan Abrams or Steam Colligue and then

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Speaker 3: random follower shot out Ryan that met at our event

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Speaker 3: this weekend. We put in all these crazy just lot

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Speaker 3: in game, same game parlays, just messing around. They were

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Speaker 3: like eight hundred to one, like with the Kate out

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Speaker 3: and all the Alts bucks to win, which was hit

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Speaker 3: and then Kate outen first and last touchdown. Now you

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Speaker 3: should have had the first touchdown he dropped it. That

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Speaker 3: was his one. Yeah, bet, but that was fun. Game

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Speaker 3: wasn't the most exciting wild card weekend, but it was

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Speaker 3: very profitable for us. I feel like everyone at Action,

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Speaker 3: you know, all the shows. Everyone had a big weekend.

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Speaker 3: So we got the Bills for my futures, Bills to

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Speaker 3: move on. So the main goal this weekend get the

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Speaker 3: Bills and Ravens still the future's dream to the SC

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Speaker 3: Championship game. I think we got the best possible outcomes

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Speaker 3: for this weekend as far as came out of last weekend.

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Speaker 3: So I think they we'll have some really good games

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Speaker 3: this weekend and then assuming the Ravens win, whoever comes

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Speaker 3: out of Bills chiefs that the AFSC Championship game should

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Speaker 3: be awesome. Seven games left, let's cherish them. Close out

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Speaker 3: the year strong and who cares what happened last week?

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Speaker 3: What's fun? Some winners for this week all.

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Speaker 2: Right, let's do it, and we'll open up the six

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Speaker 2: pack once again.

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Speaker 1: Sides, totals, props, whatever only thing is, we have to

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Speaker 1: have at least one side, So we'll do that again.

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Speaker 1: Seventy three sixty six year up, and I'll just give

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Speaker 1: the lines for each of the four games up top.

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Speaker 2: There's one game that's not going to be in a

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Speaker 2: six pack.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about that after the six pack, but still

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Speaker 1: want to give everybody the lines as we record this

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Speaker 1: in the middle of the week. Houston at Baltimore Ravens

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Speaker 1: favored by nine and a half the total forty three

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Speaker 1: and a half. We bet MGM Packers at the Niners

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Speaker 1: Niners favored by nine and a half the.

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Speaker 2: Total fifty and a half.

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Speaker 1: The Bucks at the Lions Lions favored by six and

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Speaker 1: a half of the total forty eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: And then Chiefs at Bill's.

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Speaker 1: Bills favored by three of bet MVM of the total

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half. All right, stut, you're up first,

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Speaker 1: Let's crack open our divisional round six.

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Speaker 2: Back Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: All right, for my first pick and the first overall

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Speaker 3: of the Divisional Round weekend six pack. I'm going with

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Speaker 3: the Baltimore Ravens first half minus six and a half

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Speaker 3: at home against the Houston Texans. I'll start off by saying,

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Speaker 3: just unbelievable performance by the Texans last week. Stroud was awesome,

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Speaker 3: Flacco was not. But you know, I think it was

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Speaker 3: a little bit of recency bias in this line. I

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Speaker 3: think it should be at least ten. But overall, I'll

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Speaker 3: explain why I like the first half a little bit

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Speaker 3: more than the sidespread as I go on here. But

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Speaker 3: I went into last weekend saying that the Browns are

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Speaker 3: extremely overrated. Like the Browns are, I don't know why

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Speaker 3: everyone's colling in love with them. It's still thirty eight

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Speaker 3: year old Joe Flacco. They played a bunch of backups

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Speaker 3: to the end of the year, and their defense, which

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Speaker 3: was banged up, is not the same defense that it

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Speaker 3: was ever in the year, and their defense on the

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Speaker 3: road again get shredded as it did all year. They

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Speaker 3: finished nine and zero on the season or ten and

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Speaker 3: zero on the season in road overs, which is pretty crazy.

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Speaker 3: But so it's not like I adjusted Houston astronomically after

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Speaker 3: that game. It's still one game. And this is a

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Speaker 3: Texans team specifically from a defensive standpoint. And look their offense,

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Speaker 3: love Stroud, I love that their game. They were aggressive

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Speaker 3: growing early, which I liked. But this is a white

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Speaker 3: receiver room. Now doesn't have Noah Brown, doesn't have Tank Dell,

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Speaker 3: and now you're going up against the best defense in

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Speaker 3: the NFL with that played a top five schedule this year,

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Speaker 3: and there's really no weaknesses here. I think that. Look

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Speaker 3: if the Ravens off the bye well rested, whereas the Texans,

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Speaker 3: I mean you're dealing with injuries, not only wide receivers

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Speaker 3: piking on the defensive end. They're not fully healthy in

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Speaker 3: the secondary, and now you have questions at defensive end

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Speaker 3: Will Anderson. They're just not fully healthy. I'm assuming that,

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Speaker 3: I mean Hughes might not play, but I'm assuming Anderson

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Speaker 3: and Gernardo are going to play. But they didn't practice today.

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Speaker 3: This defense isn't fully healthy. And you know, outdoor team

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Speaker 3: indoor team going outdoors and what's going to be frigid temperatures.

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Speaker 3: But from a matchup perspective, Ravens and Harball always goot

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Speaker 3: off of a bye this and I think that's super

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Speaker 3: beneficial for this staff and checking the coordinators have been

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Speaker 3: so good. What do I think that we'll see here

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Speaker 3: as a result. I think that you'll see the Ravens

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Speaker 3: come out pretty pass heavy early on. That's the weakness

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Speaker 3: of this Texans defense by far. And I think that

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Speaker 3: you're gonna see on defense you're gonna have I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know you have Mike McDonald has had weeks to

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Speaker 3: prepare for this game. You're gonna have a lot of

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Speaker 3: different looks to confuse Stroud, different pressures. I think you're

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Speaker 3: gonna go a little bit man heavier, I mean zone.

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Speaker 3: Stroud absolutely shreded zone throughout this year. Wasn't nowhere close

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Speaker 3: to his good versus man or under pressure, which I

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Speaker 3: think we'll see both of this year. This week. I

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Speaker 3: think we'll see, you know, a lot of men on

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Speaker 3: the outside, but also simulated pressure, some different blitzes just

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Speaker 3: to confuse him into a mistake or two. And then

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Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson against his defense if they come out pass heavy,

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Speaker 3: it's a defense that doesn't blitz a lot. And that's

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Speaker 3: really been one of the ways that you could I mean,

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Speaker 3: Lamar's numbers against anything have been great this year, but

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Speaker 3: he struggled at times against the blitz again zone, which

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Speaker 3: the Texans run a bunch of. I mean, it's been

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Speaker 3: ridiculous what Lamar has done against own seventy one percent

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Speaker 3: completion rate, zero point one EPA per dropback, fifty one

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Speaker 3: percent success rate, which is just stupid. Also has a

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Speaker 3: much higher success success rate and scramble rate. Again, so

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Speaker 3: people think like, oh, if you play zone, that'll stop

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Speaker 3: Lamar from scrambling, but he's just so fast it doesn't matter,

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Speaker 3: right like against some other mobile quarterbacks, if you play man,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna get burnt by the scramble. But you know

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Speaker 3: you got Mark andrews now full practice. He's back. So

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Speaker 3: I think this Ravens offense is gonna come out with

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Speaker 3: a really good game plan. I think they're going to

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Speaker 3: confuse Stroud early. And this Ravens team, Look, if you

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Speaker 3: just look at the body of work for each team,

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Speaker 3: the Texans in their last ten games have faced one

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Speaker 3: playoff quarterback Joe Flackup. That was it. This is a

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Speaker 3: team that played one offense all year that finished in

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Speaker 3: the top ten in EPA per play That was the

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Speaker 3: Ravens in Week one of a new scheme. Yeah, offense,

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Speaker 3: what we saw how much better the offense got, you know,

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Speaker 3: even just after the first few weeks, and they lost

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Speaker 3: that game twenty five to nine. It didn't face a

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Speaker 3: single top ten offense the rest of the way, didn't

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Speaker 3: really face many mobile quarterbacks. I mean, you had Kyler

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Speaker 3: who ran pretty well against them in a close game,

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Speaker 3: but that was for the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Ravens against

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Speaker 3: playoff teams this year six and two. If you remove

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Speaker 3: the backup game at the end, beaaten them by an

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Speaker 3: average of fifteen points per game. Better special teams here,

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Speaker 3: and you have two cash cows in Lamar and Harball

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Speaker 3: in the first half past twenty years. Most profitable quarterback

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Speaker 3: in the first half against the spread Lamar Jackson fifty

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Speaker 3: twenty five and two sixty seven percent. He's covered by

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Speaker 3: three points per game on average over seventy five games

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Speaker 3: sample size in the first half three points and then

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Speaker 3: Hardball first half. Most profitable coach against the spread up

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Speaker 3: in the past twenty is one forty eight, one h

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Speaker 3: three and eight. Talking to two hundred fifty games sample

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Speaker 3: size fifty nine percent. You'd say, okay, there's some you

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Speaker 3: know overlap there. Remove Lamar from Harball, Harball ninety eight

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Speaker 3: seventy eight and six against the spread, fifty six percent

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Speaker 3: against the spread in the first half. You know, for

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Speaker 3: example like seven and two with Huntley starting in the

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Speaker 3: first half. What that speaks to is you have that

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Speaker 3: Lamar You know, first of all, really good staff. Usually

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Speaker 3: they're really well prepared, even more so now with extra

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Speaker 3: time off and the healthier team. And then you have

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Speaker 3: that Lamar adjustment of like getting used to his speed.

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Speaker 3: H You know, for a team that's not like they're

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Speaker 3: in their division, they haven't seen many mobile quarterbacks. The

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Speaker 3: last time I saw them was in Week one. To

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Speaker 3: defense that's banged up. It's a good matchup for the

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Speaker 3: Ravens offense, and the Ravens defense can kind of cater

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Speaker 3: what they do each week based on the matchup, so

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Speaker 3: I think they can force Stroud into some mistakes. And

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Speaker 3: it's just not a fully healthy wide receiver room. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I would love to see Stroud with like Dell Brown

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Speaker 3: Collins and his full arsenal weapons here go up against

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Speaker 3: the Ravens d. But I think you get a focused

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Speaker 3: Ravens effort after some time off, and there's some matchup

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Speaker 3: advantages here, and then just the past success of Lamar

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Speaker 3: and Harball in the first half. I like them anything

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Speaker 3: under a touchdown in the first half.

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Speaker 1: How do you feel like the second half is going

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Speaker 1: to play out between these two teams? Because you know,

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Speaker 1: first half obviously you're technically paying attacks because you know

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Speaker 1: the full game line is nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: The first game wine six and a half.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I played five and a half. It's

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Speaker 3: gone up. I still like it at six and a half.

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Speaker 3: But the Ravens have a tendency to like kind of

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Speaker 3: play with their food late. You know, then they say, okay,

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Speaker 3: let's rely just on our defense, and it's still stroud.

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Speaker 3: I could just see a Texans back door pretty easily

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Speaker 3: in this game. And there's just no the playoffs, there's

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Speaker 3: no reason to win by margin. You're gonna have the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs or Bills next week. It's let's keep everyone healthy.

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Speaker 3: This total is coming down a bit, it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: freezing cold. I'm probably gonna play some Ravens for the

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Speaker 3: full game as well. I mean, I know for a

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Speaker 3: certainly am at under ten. Yeah, I like both, but

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Speaker 3: that's those are some of the reasons like the first

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Speaker 3: half instead all.

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Speaker 2: Right, well, I'm gonna stay in the same game.

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Speaker 1: For my first pick in the second overall of the

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Speaker 1: division round six pack, I'm going Devin Singletary under sixteen

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Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards, And I think this might

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Speaker 1: be a little bit of a market over correction for.

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Speaker 2: The fact that Noah Brown went on ir No.

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Speaker 1: But he didn't really play much in that last game anyway,

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Speaker 1: and you could has had receivers out all year. That

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Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean they're gonna target their backs more in

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Speaker 1: this game. Segretary has had thirteen or fewer receiving yards

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Speaker 1: in fifteen of eighteen games.

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Speaker 2: That's eighty three percent.

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Speaker 1: So I think the reason books bumped them up is

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Speaker 1: a combination of, you know, the receivers being banged up,

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Speaker 1: but also so he's been playing over the last two

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Speaker 1: weeks on about seventy two percent of the team's half snaps. However,

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Speaker 1: last week, you know, it was a blowout, and in general,

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Speaker 1: Singletary he'll play a little more when they're leading because

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Speaker 1: he's not their third down, hurry up kind of back.

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Speaker 1: So in a game scrip where you're projected to be

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Speaker 1: down by more than one score, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: more of a goon Ba Wallet who plays two minute,

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Speaker 1: who plays third down. Only three of Singletary's thirty eight

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Speaker 1: targets eight percent have come on third or fourth down

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Speaker 1: this year, and only eight percent have come with less

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Speaker 1: than two minutes to go in either half. And then

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Speaker 1: you got Rokwan Smith is one of the linebackers he

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Speaker 1: grades out top five in coverage at PFF for the

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Speaker 1: eighty four point one grade, fifth out of eighty qualified linebackers.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Queen fifteenth out of eighty qualifiers with a seventy

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Speaker 1: six point one coverage grade. And again, Singletary's only gone

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Speaker 1: over this a goin over thirteen three of his eighteen

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Speaker 1: games this season. So I think this line is a

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Speaker 1: little bit high. I'm sure it'll come down. I would

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Speaker 1: bet the under two thirteen and a half, so hopefully

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Speaker 1: by the time we're listening to this you could still

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Speaker 1: get that. But I think this number is too hot,

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Speaker 1: because again, if Houston is trailing and it is garbage

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Speaker 1: kind I think you're gonna see a lot more a

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Speaker 1: goudon bowawe. That's kind of what happened in the first

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Speaker 1: game Houston lost by sixteen. Damian Pierce at this point

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Speaker 1: was a starter but if you just look at him

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Speaker 1: and Singletary combined, Singletary didn't get any targets in that

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Speaker 1: game because he was the number two back behind Pierce.

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Speaker 1: But here's three targets, two catches nine yards. Bowen, who

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Speaker 1: was the ogoon bowle roll, had four targets, three catches

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Speaker 1: for eighteen yards.

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Speaker 2: So that's what I kind of would expect this week.

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Speaker 1: I think, you know Singletary, if you have to pick

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Speaker 1: between him and Schultz, it's going to be him stayed

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Speaker 1: in the block a little bit more in this game.

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Speaker 2: If the pass russ given him an issue.

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Speaker 1: They do of them screens about two thirds of his

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Speaker 1: games he has twelve screens, but he only averages five

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Speaker 1: yards of catch on screen passes.

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Speaker 2: So that's not going to destroy us, obviously unless they

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Speaker 2: break on. But that's true about any catch.

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Speaker 1: So like Singletary under sixteen and a half receiving yards

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Speaker 1: for one number one pick, let.

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Speaker 3: Me move on to my second pick and the third

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Speaker 3: overall of the Divisional Round Weekend six pack. I'm going

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Speaker 3: to go with a Tampa Bay Buck over longest receptions.

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Speaker 3: It's not Kate Oughton, unfortunately, it is Chris Godwin over

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Speaker 3: twenty one and a half yards. I'm playing him over

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Speaker 3: yards too. But let me break this down. I actually

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Speaker 3: think people that are waiting for the autumn that Aughten

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Speaker 3: last week helps this year. And the reason of that

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Speaker 3: is just like, oh wow, Kate Aten had a huge game.

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Speaker 3: He's not that good, but you know, so the Lion's

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Speaker 3: got to be a little bit more cognizant of them

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Speaker 3: after watching that, right, It's like, all right, maybe we

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Speaker 3: to pay a little bit more attention. But mainly this

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Speaker 3: is there's two reasons why I really like this one.

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Speaker 3: The Bucks last week, the huge advantages going up against

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Speaker 3: the Equals secondary, you can't cover. Anybody was afraid that.

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Speaker 3: You know, at times they get a little to run

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Speaker 3: heavy and they're not a good running team. They came

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Speaker 3: out and just threw the ball. Seventy eighty percent neutral

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Speaker 3: pass game rate, Yeah, very high. And then if you

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Speaker 3: look back at the first matchup, the scores very misleading

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Speaker 3: because Baker Mayfield missed a ton of wide I'm talking

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Speaker 3: wide open. I think he missed three wide open guys

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Speaker 3: way downfield thirty three. I think almost a third of

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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield's throws we're twenty plus yards downfield, that's as

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Speaker 3: high as you know you'll see in any game of

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Speaker 3: any quarterback. So they were throwing it downfield, so I

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Speaker 3: have a lot of confidence that they're going to come

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Speaker 3: out with the pass that game script. Also, they're underdogs here,

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Speaker 3: so the most likely scenarios are gonna be playing from behind.

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Speaker 3: But I'm confident they're going to be throwing it a lot.

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Speaker 3: And you know they're going up against a line secretary

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Speaker 3: that's given up the fourth most yards to receivers. But

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Speaker 3: this is all you know. This game is also indoors.

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Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield looked healthier. Bucks play a lot of games outdoors.

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Speaker 3: Is a fast track. The other thing is this is

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Speaker 3: mainly a fade of Bildor, who I think is one

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Speaker 3: of the worst corners in the league. I've said it

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Speaker 3: since he came into the league. He's allowing twenty two

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Speaker 3: zero point eight yards per reception. The next worst you

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Speaker 3: just take a minimum one hundred one hundred covered snaps.

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Speaker 3: It's been one hundred and fifty one corners who have

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Speaker 3: played one hundred covered snaps this year. The next worst

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Speaker 3: is seventeen point seven. He's five yard almost five five

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Speaker 3: five over five yards worse than the next worst corner

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Speaker 3: he's he's it's burnt consistently. There's gonna be opportunities for

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Speaker 3: Godwin to explos this. Why do I think it's Godwin. Well,

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Speaker 3: there's one of two things that's gonna happen here. You

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Speaker 3: might have Sutton shadow Evans. They've used something as a

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Speaker 3: shadow sometimes. I don't know if they're gonna do not.

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Speaker 3: You never really know what the game plan is going

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Speaker 3: to be. But that's one option. If that's the case,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna have Vildor on Godwin. If they don't, then

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Speaker 3: you'll have Vildor on the left side. And that's where

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Speaker 3: Godwin lines up more often when he goes out wide

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Speaker 3: and his slot snaps have gone down the past couple

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Speaker 3: of weeks. He's also I think he's gone over this number.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's had catches of at least twenty and

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Speaker 3: a half yards or at least twenty one and a

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Speaker 3: half I should say fifteen out of eighteen games this season,

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Speaker 3: so not quite every game. But like I said, this

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Speaker 3: is a bad past eight. This is indoors the game

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Speaker 3: scripture favor, and I expect them to come out be

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Speaker 3: very past Seavy. Baker Mayfield's also healthy and he's going

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Speaker 3: up again. He's gonna get a lot of matchups against

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Speaker 3: what i've is gonna be one of the worst corners

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Speaker 3: in the league. The safety help isn't great either, So

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Speaker 3: I think that there's gonna be plenty of opportunities. And

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Speaker 3: I like Godwin over yards too, but there's just there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be multiple opportunities for him to break one he

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Speaker 3: might get. You know, he could have a sixty seventy

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Speaker 3: yard broken reception, and I think he's gonna get the

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Speaker 3: more favorable matchups more often. Bucks are gonna come out

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Speaker 3: pass heavy here, so yeah, and maybe a little bit

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Speaker 3: more attention with the safety dot maybe that helps. The

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Speaker 3: safety just hesitates a little bit. But I like Godwin

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Speaker 3: to have a big day here. Do you have any

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Speaker 3: thoughts there?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I think, and it's going to actually

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Speaker 2: relate to my next prop.

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Speaker 1: But I think the key is Gobrin has played less

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Speaker 1: slot snaps as of Lady is lining up more outside,

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Speaker 1: and I think the really the strongest, you know, Lions

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Speaker 1: pass defense. When you talk about wide receivers, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be in the slot because you got a branch there.

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Speaker 2: I guess CJ.

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Speaker 1: Gardner Johnson, you could put there like you have more

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Speaker 1: options where I think the outside is really.

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Speaker 2: You know where your weakness is. So do you know,

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Speaker 2: I'll talk about the Bucks. I do agree.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bucks have some matchup advantages throwing the football.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I think I think when you're looking at God,

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Speaker 1: when he's the guy that kind of stands out in

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Speaker 1: this matchup, I could still.

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Speaker 2: Have a good game.

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Speaker 3: You know, you know, last week against a team that

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Speaker 3: cannot cover tight ends at all all, it's like the

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Speaker 3: Lions are great. But I mean the way that the

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Speaker 3: Eagles or the roster was the end of the year

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Speaker 3: with Patricia Law, I mean, I got twenty and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's like, you know, it's like thirty one. Now after

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Speaker 3: last week, You're you're definitely playing paying a premium on

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Speaker 3: outon But I think I think he definitely could have

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Speaker 3: another good game.

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Speaker 1: Well, let me get right into my next pick, because

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Speaker 1: it's going to kind of be the inverse of that,

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Speaker 1: you know, paying there is a premium right now on

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Speaker 1: a guy. And for my second pick, the fourth over

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Speaker 1: all of the Divisional round six pack, I'm going Trey

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Speaker 1: Palmer under twenty and a half receiving yards and I

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Speaker 1: think you're paying a premium here if you're looking about

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Speaker 1: the over on Palmer. Obviously, he had that great fifty

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Speaker 1: six yard touchdown, a shout out to Nick Giffin, who

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Speaker 1: was on his anytime touchdown, and I know made a

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Speaker 1: lot of people a lot of money with that hit.

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Speaker 1: But when you look at what Trey Palmer's been doing,

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Speaker 1: Number one, he's been playing fewer slot snaps and that

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Speaker 1: affected just his overall playing time. Last week, he ran

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Speaker 1: hero out on a season low thirty three percent of

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Speaker 1: team dropbacks, David Moore a season high forty two percent.

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Speaker 1: So we were kind of watching that game and I

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Speaker 1: was saying to our guy, Matthew Trevy, it looked like

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Speaker 1: more kind of overtook Palmer a little bit in the

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Speaker 1: game plan, and it could be a one week thing.

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Speaker 1: But even if you look at the entire season, Trey

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Speaker 1: Palmer has been under twenty twenty yards, held the twenty

401
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Speaker 1: yards or last in ten of his eighteen games, twenty

402
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Speaker 1: one yards or less in eleven of his eighteen games.

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Speaker 1: And now you're looking at a situation where you know

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Speaker 1: Palmer is still going to run, you know, forty to

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Speaker 1: fifty percent of us snaps in the slot, so he'll

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Speaker 1: still face you know, their toughest corner and branch a

407
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 1: good amount. But he could just go back to that

408
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Speaker 1: same snap rate that he had last week, and if

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Speaker 1: he doesn't get that fifty six yard or he finishes

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Speaker 1: the game with no catches on you know, no catches

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Speaker 1: for no yards in that game on one target. So

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Speaker 1: I think this is a good time to sell high

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Speaker 1: on Palmer. You know, big plays are volatile, and even

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Speaker 1: though he hasn't been playing in the slot quite as much,

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Speaker 1: he still has a single digit averaged up to target

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Speaker 1: in seven of his last nine games. Earlier in the

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Speaker 1: season that was about fifty to fifty whether you would

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Speaker 1: have you know, a dot over under ten for the

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Speaker 1: season is average.

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Speaker 2: A dive is actually a eleven.

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Speaker 1: So this is another one where yeah, you could get

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Speaker 1: hurt by a big play, but unlikely to hit a

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Speaker 1: big play like that two weeks in a row, and

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Speaker 1: David Moore has kind of cut into Palmer's role a

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Speaker 1: bit and more had a good game too, you know,

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Speaker 1: but it wasn't just Palmer, you know, paulm obviously took

427
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: advantage of just terrible Philly tackling and angles and all

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00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 1: that stuff on that on that fifty six yarder. But

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Speaker 1: for the season, this is a plus ev bet, and

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Speaker 1: for this game, I think it's even more because you

431
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Speaker 1: have the built in upside I guess you could call

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Speaker 1: it of you know, Palmer playing on well under fifty

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Speaker 1: percent of the pass snaps yet again, and then on

434
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: top of that, I think the market is a little

435
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 1: bit low on the Bucks and so there's a better

436
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 1: chance I think for positive game script than the line

437
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: is kind of indicating too. So that's actually worth it

438
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: could be worth you know, a yard or two as well,

439
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 1: because you're expecting maybe a little bit less passing in

440
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 1: garbage time or just passing period. Really in this game,

441
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 1: if the Bucks are at the line that I think

442
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 1: they should be at in the market, So give me

443
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 1: Trey Palmer under twenty and a half receiving yards against

444
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions.

445
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna kick out God when even more

446
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,200
Speaker 3: to the than they have been recently. And a majority

447
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 3: of Palmer slot at snaps have come in the slot

448
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 3: this year and it's not like an overwhelming majority like

449
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 3: we just talked about that that's where you get the

450
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 3: best from a Detroit perspective, the best cover options going

451
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 3: up against him, and I think that he might. You know,

452
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 3: if he is in there, if they're going to give

453
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 3: even a higher percentage of snaps to Goblin on the outside,

454
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 3: then you know he's not going to have favorable matchups

455
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 3: as well in the slot. So that could add to

456
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: it as well. All Right, For my third pick in

457
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 3: the fifth overall of the Divisional Round Sunday six pack,

458
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 3: I'm going to go to San Francisco forty nine ers

459
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 3: nine and a half against the green Bay Packers. I

460
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: think that there's a little bit of recency bias here

461
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,199
Speaker 3: for what green Bay looked like last week. Jordan Love

462
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 3: has been amazing. We've talked about it, how good he's

463
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 3: been since week eleven. He was great last week as well.

464
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 3: We were all on the package last week. But this

465
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 3: is a Green Bay team. Can we remember that the

466
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 3: defense is still horrendous. This is not a good defense

467
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 3: in any stretch. And I talked about this last week.

468
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 3: We both were on the package. Would have been one

469
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 3: of my picks in the six packer was one of yours.

470
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 3: I actually kind of liked a little bit of the

471
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 3: matchup for the green Bay defense because Dallas hasn't run

472
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 3: the ball efficiently all year, and that's not going to

473
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 3: be an issue with San Francisco, the best rushing offense

474
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,479
Speaker 3: in the NFL. Against this Green Bay d that vulnerable

475
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: against their run. They can't cover the middle of the field,

476
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 3: They can't cover backs, can't cover tight ends, they can't

477
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 3: cover the slot. All of the ingredients that you would

478
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,239
Speaker 3: want when you're not when you're about to face San

479
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 3: Francisco off extra rest, extra preparation. I'm sure the script

480
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 3: is going to be great for San Francisco. They're also

481
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 3: going to be the healthier team than we'll rest the team.

482
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 3: They should get Armstead back, almost positive, the're gonna get

483
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 3: Armstead back on the defensive line. Now, you finally have

484
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 3: that defensive line fully healthy, and I think they'll be

485
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 3: able to generate some pressure up the middle, which I

486
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 3: think you want to do against Jordan Love. But you know,

487
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 3: green Law back, Armstead back, fully healthy d now and

488
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 3: look Packers. Love has been great. They cooked the Cowboys.

489
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 3: A lot of that was for a lot of that

490
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 3: was on Love. A lot of that was on you know,

491
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 3: the Dak mistakes to play, the play calling out, the coaching,

492
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 3: some of the things that from a game plan perspective,

493
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 3: Dallas was just left in the dust. As far as personnel.

494
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 3: They wouldn't adjust, and I don't think that's going to

495
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 3: be an issue here. We have to remember this is

496
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 3: a Packers team that I mean, look, if you look

497
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: over the last three weeks, they beat I mean, they

498
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: lost to Tommy DeVito, they lost to the Steelers. They

499
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 3: beat up on some bad teams. And if you look

500
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: this Green Bay defense, which is twenty seventh vos is

501
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 3: it getting better now? Twenty eighth weighted told you all

502
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 3: the things that they can't cover, which is where San

503
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 3: Frantic sells in. They also played an extremely easy schedule

504
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 3: of opposing offenses. That's not adjusting for the fact they

505
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,200
Speaker 3: played de Veto they play you know, they played a

506
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 3: game against the Vikings with Jarren Hall, and they played

507
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,040
Speaker 3: the Rams, who are considered a good offense when Brent

508
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 3: Rippon started, so their defensive metrics benefited from three playing

509
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 3: the Rams with Brent Rippin. If you adjust for that,

510
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 3: you know this was a bottom two to three defense

511
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 3: in the league against one of the easiest schedules in

512
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 3: the league. It's just hard for me to see them

513
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 3: getting many stops, and uh, you know this is I

514
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 3: just think that this is a little bit of in place.

515
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 3: I think this line should be over ten. In playoffs,

516
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 3: you're not getting you're not gonna get huge side edges,

517
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 3: So like, I think this line should be fourteen. But

518
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 3: I think San Fran's gonna come up. They're gonna come

519
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,479
Speaker 3: out the great script. They're going to get a lead

520
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 3: at home. They're gonna be able to get some pressure

521
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 3: with a fully healthy defense out for Screen Bay and

522
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 3: them some mistakes. It's just I keep looking at this

523
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 3: game and I get deja vu because I remember and

524
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 3: when we were doing this podcast in twenty nineteen, I

525
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 3: think I had a Packers fifty to one, forty to one.

526
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 3: I don't know, I forget the price, but I had

527
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 3: my only Super Bowl future was a Packers future, and

528
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 3: they were going to San Francisco. You know, you had

529
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but they couldn't stop the run.

530
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 3: And I was like, they're going to get ripped apart,

531
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 3: and they did. And I feel like nothing has changed

532
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 3: with these teams, and I just can't see many paths

533
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 3: for this Green Bay defense to get stops. I think

534
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 3: San Francisco is going to go up and down the

535
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,239
Speaker 3: field at will, if they want to run it, if

536
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,879
Speaker 3: they want to throw it. It's hard for me to

537
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 3: see this Green Bay defense getting many stops. And by

538
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 3: the way, Green Bay also is one of the worst

539
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 3: special teams unit in the entire NFL. You're a completely

540
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 3: unreliable kicker, but they've been bad across the board. So

541
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: it's like, we're the team that's been the most dominant

542
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 3: in the NFL season off of buye at home with

543
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 3: huge advantages on offense. Now a healthier defense. You're basically

544
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 3: just saying, like Jordan Love, keep this within a touchdown,

545
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 3: and he's been great since Week eleven. But I think

546
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 3: we've gone a little bit too far overboard based on

547
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,680
Speaker 3: last week's performance. So I'm selling the Packers after last week.

548
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 3: It's funny, you see, it's funny you see these swings everyone,

549
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 3: you know, not anyone listened to this podcast for us,

550
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: but Cowboys were an overwhelming public side. Now everyone wants

551
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 3: to jump off and no one wanted to take the

552
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 3: seven and a half of Dallas. Now now everyone wants to,

553
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 3: you know, take the nine and a half at San Francisco.

554
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 3: San Francisco has been significantly better than Dallas, and this

555
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 3: is a much better matchup, and they're coming off of

556
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 3: a buy at home. And again, like I said, the

557
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 3: Packers have been good, but can we can we remember

558
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 3: since week eleven they beat the Chiefs in that amazing

559
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 3: spot a guy that spot circled before the year, they

560
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 3: beat the they lost to Tommy DeVito, they got blown

561
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 3: out by the Bucks. They held on to beat the Panthers.

562
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: The Panthers scored thirty on them. By the way that

563
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 3: it took the Panthers. If you line the Panthers up

564
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 3: against all the other playoff teams and they just played

565
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 3: one each week, how long would it take them to

566
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: score thirty total points? Like six months? Then they beat

567
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 3: the Vikings, they blew up the Bikons with Jaren Hall

568
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 3: starting the Nick Mollens, and then they beat the Bears.

569
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 3: Like I think we have to cool our jets based

570
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 3: on just one game against the Cowboys, I'm taking the

571
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 3: Niners here minus time and a half at home.

572
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 1: I have this line right about where the market does,

573
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: so not as much of an edge for me, but

574
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 1: you know, all the points makes sense that this probably

575
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: is the time to sell on Green Bay. I am

576
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: would have worried they could keep up offensively. We've kind

577
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: of been seeing that in the playoffs. The theme is

578
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: these offenses that are playing well have kind of won

579
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: the day.

580
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 2: And you know some of the defenses. You know, Cleveland

581
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:10,720
Speaker 2: comes to ard.

582
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: I mean, although they were bad on the road, but

583
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:15,719
Speaker 1: I do think this Green Bay offense is humming right

584
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 1: now and could give a nine US some issues. But yeah,

585
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: I agree, I think the Niners on that Green Bay defense,

586
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: they're gonna go up and down a.

587
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: Field, all right. For my third pick, the sixth.

588
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 1: And final of the Divisional round six pack, going with

589
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Bucks plus six and a half at

590
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: the Detroit Lions. So a couple of things here. A

591
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 1: few things here. Number one of the Bucks that I've

592
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: been playing better as of late. You know, heading into

593
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 1: that game last week, they were up to fifteenth and

594
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: waited overall DVLA, so an above average team.

595
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: The Detroit seventh.

596
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay last week out gained Philadelphia four twenty six

597
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: to two thirty four. Detroit got out gained by the

598
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: Rams at home for twenty five to three thirty four,

599
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 1: so by nearly one hundred yards. And then we know

600
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 1: what Todd Bosen his Bucks defense is going to do.

601
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 1: Knew it was going to be a problem against the

602
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: you know, knew the Eagles are going to struggle with it.

603
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: And it's the blitz. And this Detroit team hasn't been

604
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: as bad as Jalen Hurts, but Jarrett Goff goes he's

605
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 1: a top graded passer when he's not blitzed at PFF

606
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: with a ninety point four grade. He drops to twenty

607
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: second against the blitz with a seventy point three grade.

608
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: So I think this Buffalo excuse me, this Tampa Bay

609
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: defense and it's blitz happiness is going to work to

610
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: its advantage. Here. You look at Detroit's defense, they're actually

611
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: grade out worse than Tampa Bay and waited DVA but

612
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: also pass funal defense number one against the run, sixteenth

613
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: against the pass. It really doesn't matter if you're number

614
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 1: one against the run against Tampa Bay because they've been

615
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 1: the worst rushing team in the league for the better

616
00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 1: part of two years now.

617
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 2: So I don't think that's a big edge for them.

618
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 1: I think Detroit is still exploitable on the back ends,

619
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: been a lot better against pressure lately. He's just been

620
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: locked in and while you know, this isn't this isn't

621
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: a home game for Mayfield. It is an indoor game,

622
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 1: so you know, just kind of like Tampa Bay at

623
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: home and not really conditions.

624
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: Huh is it an indoor game?

625
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: Right?

626
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: Yeah? What did they ask Todd bod that the frigid

627
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 2: Detroit weather?

628
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 3: Right?

629
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right?

630
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 4: The weather has been a factor in some of the

631
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,719
Speaker 4: playoff games, even for the most prepared teams. Any special

632
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 4: plans to acclimate the team to perform in those confridge

633
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 4: and temperatures should you face them in Detroit?

634
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 3: You do know we play indoors, right, and they got

635
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 3: a dome, no nothing playing.

636
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: We only have to be outside for twenty seconds getting

637
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: off the bus, going under the thing, so we'll be okay.

638
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: Todd Bowles.

639
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: By the way, also, in a year where I feel

640
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: like a lot of coaches have just been terrible, Tod

641
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 1: Boles kind of managed to stay out of the news.

642
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 1: You know, he's like, it hasn't been amazing, but he

643
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 1: hasn't made those like terrible errors or just you know,

644
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: completely had his tea, you know, shit the ban or

645
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: anything like that.

646
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 3: So yeah, last week that I think that what you're

647
00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 3: saying now is like the Bucks. They can't run it.

648
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 3: Detroit's rundy has been very good. Uh, And you know,

649
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 3: that was one of the things I was worried about

650
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,479
Speaker 3: with Tampa last week, and they showed me that they

651
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 3: understood the assignment and they didn't run. They didn't try

652
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 3: to run any in neutral game states they were coming

653
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 3: out and they came out firing. Showed me that they

654
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 3: you know, the scout was good.

655
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 2: It worked.

656
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 3: So you're very likely to look at this matchup again,

657
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,239
Speaker 3: and it's even more drastic because Eagles run. He kind

658
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 3: of had fallen off. So I agree. I think that

659
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 3: they're gonna come out. And they field looked healthy too,

660
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 3: because he was banged up in the air, I mean

661
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 3: he could ribs and knee, So I think that they

662
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 3: I'm very confident that they're going to come out and

663
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 3: not just it just would happen to times. I mean,

664
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 3: it happened more with Leftwich, but they would come out

665
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 3: and just run into walls and then they'd get you know,

666
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 3: be third and long and you know, and then they'd

667
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 3: get behind and it was just such an inefficient approach.

668
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 3: So after seeing what they did last week, yeah, I agree.

669
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 3: I was extremely impressed with Bulls and then just the

670
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,439
Speaker 3: staff which at the Scout, which I think will work.

671
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 3: Just run that back here this week because there's huge advantages.

672
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 3: I mean, you have you know, we talked about Vildor

673
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 3: potentially on Godwin a lot, and then if they shadow Sutton,

674
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: like people think Sutton is good, I was like, Sutton

675
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 3: is not good. Lions fans tell me in our one

676
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 3: of our podcast reviews, someone's like he said was a

677
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 3: YouTube comment. He says, Cam Sutton is trash. I'm never

678
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,240
Speaker 3: listening to this guy again. So yeah, Evan's on Sutton,

679
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,799
Speaker 3: Godwin on Vildor, and then Kate out and the god

680
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 3: just on me. I mean, no one could cover him.

681
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 3: So there's major advantages in the when Mayfield drops back,

682
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 3: and I'm pretty confident that's the perks are going to take.

683
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 1: And you know, there's a lot of things that work

684
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay's favor here a little bit too. You know,

685
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 1: this team Baker Mayfield at quarterback. I think that's you know,

686
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: the reason, you know, ever casual better look at say,

687
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: oh my goodness, that's terrible. He's been playing well. But

688
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: also this is a Tampa Bay team that's you know,

689
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 1: besides Mayfield, it's playoff tested. I mean, this is still

690
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 1: you still have a lot of the guys that went

691
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: to the super Bowl. You have a lot of the guys,

692
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: you know, they've won the division each of the you know,

693
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: the last few years, or they've been or before that

694
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: they were in the playoffs, they were losing to the

695
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 1: Saints for the division.

696
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 2: But this is that same kind of team here.

697
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 1: So it's not like this team is just a whole

698
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,399
Speaker 1: bunch of new uh, you know, guys who haven't been

699
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: in this position before.

700
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 2: Mayfield's won a couple of playoff games now for his career.

701
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 1: So you know, if anything, Detroit, you know, ford Field

702
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 1: is going to be great, that the home field is

703
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,239
Speaker 1: still going to work in Detroit's favor, obviously, but it's

704
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 1: another one of those situations where I think the Mark

705
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: is just undervaluing Tampa Bay as far as trends go.

706
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: Sunday Divisional Round single digit road dogs twenty six nine

707
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: and one against the spread over the last two decades.

708
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 2: That's seventy four percent and while caught or.

709
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:06,240
Speaker 1: Divisional dogs who are underperforming the pythagorin win lost record

710
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 1: from the regular season, which the Bucks, you know they're there.

711
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 1: They are slightly not by a major amount, but they

712
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 1: would have over nine wins for them if you just

713
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 1: look at their point differential and they end up going

714
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: nine and eight. Those teams thirty five, thirteen and two

715
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: seventy three percent against the spread over the last two decade.

716
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 1: That was a stat I sided on the convinced me

717
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,880
Speaker 1: back in the Bucks last week as well, so had

718
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: the Lions the first time in this matchup. Actually they

719
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 1: did cover, So hopefully I can stay hot with picking

720
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 1: the right side of this one because I'm going with

721
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: the Bucks this time plus six and a half at

722
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: the Lions.

723
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I will say, you cash, you cast that

724
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 3: probably the right side. But I'm telling you, I watched

725
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 3: that entire game. Mayfield missed two or three missed and

726
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 3: eight there was an eighty R touchdown he missed. Yeah,

727
00:36:56,040 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 3: but there was a couple just wide open. Guys. It's

728
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:01,839
Speaker 3: just gonna happen against the line. So that game could

729
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 3: have been a lot closer, very misleading final score. If

730
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,399
Speaker 3: you're going back and just looking at how that played

731
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 3: out here, you're like, wow, they only scored six or

732
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 3: seven points. I forget what it was. The one thing

733
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 3: that worries me is I think both offenses have some

734
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 3: advantages here, and I know Campbell is going to be

735
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 3: aggressive on fourth down. And we said our ball has

736
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 3: been better this year. He's still not aggressed. He's still

737
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 3: on fourth in shorts. He's still very conservative, I think. Yeah,

738
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 3: I forget who put out the most aggressive coaches of

739
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three this year, but Campbell was either one

740
00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 3: or two, as you would expect, and Bulls is still

741
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 3: you know, bottom third of the league. So I hope

742
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 3: that he is a little bit more aggressive here. But

743
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 3: that's the one thing that worries me is just like

744
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 3: the Bucks punning on like fourth and one at like

745
00:37:55,880 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 3: the forty three or fourth and two, and then on

746
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,600
Speaker 3: the other side, the lines go for it, you know,

747
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 3: in the same situation, end up with a touchdown, and

748
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 3: those are just big swing. So I hope Ball's is

749
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,759
Speaker 3: a little bit more aggressive because I know Campbell's going

750
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 3: to be and I think this is a good game

751
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 3: to do, so yeah, I like it. I think it's

752
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 3: not too high. They have to sit in like four

753
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 3: four eight.

754
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 2: All right, Well that is going to do it for

755
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 2: our division round six pack.

756
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 1: Again, we'll get to Bill's Chiefs right after this, but

757
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: just to recap, Stuck has Baltimore first half minus six

758
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 1: and a half, Chris Godwin longest reception over twenty one

759
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 1: and a half, and the Niners minus nine and a

760
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: half against the Pack, I have Devin Singletary under sixteen

761
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards, Trey Palmer under twenty and

762
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 1: a half receiving yards, and the Bucks plus six and

763
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 1: a half.

764
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,320
Speaker 2: This podcast is proudly presented by Bett MGM.

765
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 1: Used bonus code action act ion when signing up to

766
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets

767
00:38:55,840 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

768
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

769
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions of probably must be twenty one year older.

770
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, now,

771
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 1: it's time for our divisional round coaches pep Talk.

772
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 3: Playoffs.

773
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 2: Don't talk about playoffs, you kidding me? Playoffs? For this

774
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 2: week's coach is pep Talk.

775
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:31,959
Speaker 1: We're going to legendary NFL coach and zero time Super

776
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 1: Bowl champion Marty.

777
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 2: Schottenheimer and dedicate this to dedicades to the Bucks.

778
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 3: Climb the mountain. You take one step at.

779
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 2: A time, don't go looking at the top. You end

780
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 2: up flipping on your ass.

781
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 3: One step at a time. Man.

782
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 2: The only step it's important is the next one.

783
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 1: All right, So we got one more game here got

784
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 1: the Chiefs got the Bills at BETAMGM, Bills favored by

785
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: three at home against Kansas City, the total forty five

786
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 1: and a half stuck.

787
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on Bill's Chiefs.

788
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 3: Well, first, I'll start with that. So the Chiefs beat

789
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 3: the Dolphins just a shell of a team last week.

790
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 3: I mean I played some Dolphins, so did you. But

791
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 3: it's not like I was like, oh, now the Chiefs

792
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: are back. So excluding the Dolphins, who they beat last week,

793
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 3: let's get a trigger question. How many playoff teams did

794
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 3: the Chiefs beat this year?

795
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 2: Another one I believe, right?

796
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 3: Who was it?

797
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: The Dolphins?

798
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, so besides the Dolphins.

799
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: Oh oh, I thought you made that play?

800
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,880
Speaker 3: Oh oh yeah, they beat the Dolphins, but nobody knows

801
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:45,959
Speaker 3: zero oh zero zero.

802
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 2: They beat the Domins twice. Yeah, that's what I was thinking.

803
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 3: They beat the Dompins twice and we said all year

804
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 3: how bad they looked, and it wasn't the same Chiefs team.

805
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 3: But I was shocked by that. Like and playing in

806
00:40:55,719 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: the AFC, there are road winds. Were the Jags, Jets, Vikings,

807
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 3: loss of the Broncos, Raiders, loss of the Packers hats,

808
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 3: and then the Chargers in a backup game like that's

809
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,479
Speaker 3: I was shocked. More of a fun fact, the people

810
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,360
Speaker 3: kept asking me last week at the Action event shot

811
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 3: with anyone who came, pleasure meeting a lot of you,

812
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 3: like what should this line day? I think it's got

813
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 3: to be three. I think at two and a half

814
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 3: the Bills are going to take sharp money and at

815
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 3: three and a half because I always try the bus

816
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 3: like Mahomes is a dog, especially with the hook public

817
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 3: and Sharper Money would take the three and a half.

818
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:39,920
Speaker 3: So I feel like three is the perfect number. I

819
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 3: think it came out so two and a half just

820
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 3: because of the Bill's injury situation. There's a lot of

821
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 3: guys on they're in a short week too. It's worth

822
00:41:47,080 --> 00:41:50,839
Speaker 3: mentioning it two fewer days of prep and rest, which

823
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:54,919
Speaker 3: I mean, I look, concussion, they don't matter as games

824
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 3: get more meaningful as we've seen, but it got like

825
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:01,399
Speaker 3: Tarron Johnson, he gets a concussion, it's just like fourth, one, two.

826
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,320
Speaker 3: But I mean I'm assuming he'll play because it's a

827
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 3: playoff game, which is ridiculous. But yeah, so that's where

828
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 3: that comes into play. I talked about that with our producers.

829
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 3: Is a Bills fan, I was like, that's where really

830
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 3: the short we could hurt you if you get a

831
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 3: bunch of injuries and then you know, if a god

832
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 3: was like fifty to fifty was a normal week, and

833
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: then maybe he doesn't go because it's only four or

834
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:21,239
Speaker 3: five days. So yeah, Bill's a lot of injuries, cornerback, linebacker,

835
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean gave Davis. I'm curious to see

836
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,439
Speaker 3: how some of those shake out. I like the Bills

837
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 3: with this game, but it's Bill's Chiefs. It's gonna come

838
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 3: down to dumb shit, like it's gonna be close, and

839
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:35,479
Speaker 3: just the way that it works, I would it would

840
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 3: be hilarious if this game went to overtime because it

841
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 3: would be the first playoff game to go to overtime,

842
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:44,280
Speaker 3: assuming none of the three before it. Since the infamous

843
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 3: AFC Championship game that where they changed the role because

844
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 3: of it, So that would be funny. But I'm sure

845
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 3: Bills fans and myself without what the Bills was every

846
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 3: overtime game ever. But the difference in this game, the

847
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 3: Chiefs offense is still broken to me, there's still a

848
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 3: lot of issues. I know they still have Mahomes, but

849
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:03,800
Speaker 3: I think the difference in this game is the Bills

850
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 3: now turned into the most run heavy team in the league.

851
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 3: Since Joe Burdy took over his opts coordinator, They've gone

852
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 3: from eighth to thirty second in pass play rate. I

853
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 3: think it was weeks one through nine and ten through

854
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,760
Speaker 3: half the year basically, so they were eighth in passy

855
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 3: right now thirty second. There's some noise in that, and

856
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 3: then if you're winning whatever, but they're now extremely run heavy.

857
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 3: Chiefs can't defend the run twenty seventh TVOA against the run,

858
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 3: you can run on them. And the Chiefs still have Mahomes.

859
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 3: The best offense, the best defense for the Bills, especially

860
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 3: the injuries, it's running the ball here. Do they treat

861
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 3: this as like an approach this game like the Cowboys game,

862
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 3: come out and just say We're going to bully this

863
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 3: shit out of you and just run all over you.

864
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:54,760
Speaker 3: Then take you know, well time shots, but use Allen's legs,

865
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 3: Cook's legs. I think that's the biggest matchup advantage in

866
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 3: this game. Some of the Bill's injuries we'll see because

867
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 3: you know, there's the depth could get really hurt, especially

868
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,720
Speaker 3: if there's the clusters, you know, at cornerback. Rasul Douglas,

869
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 3: I think he's hoping he's really important. He wasn't who

870
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 3: cares against the Steelers, but he said he could have played.

871
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,720
Speaker 3: But then McDermott came out and said someone else was closer.

872
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 3: So I don't know, but I think that he's going

873
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 3: to least suit up. But you know, if Johnson doesn't go,

874
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 3: Douglas doesn't go. Bentford was hurt. So if you have

875
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 3: cluster injuries at corner end or linebacker, you know, that

876
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 3: takes things a little bit more, a little diceier. But

877
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 3: I think that's what this this game comes down to,

878
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 3: is that the Bills, we have turned into this like

879
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 3: running juggernaut, can just come out with that game plan,

880
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 3: use Allen's legs a ton, and then you still have

881
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:45,799
Speaker 3: Josh Allen throwing the ball as well. But that's how

882
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 3: you attack this chief d This new Bills offense is

883
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 3: built to exploit that. And we have to remember that

884
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 3: this Chiefs offense, things aren't fixed. Just because they beat

885
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 3: that the Dolphins, who had a bunch of backup defenders

886
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 3: in a blizzard. This offense still as major issues. So

887
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 3: I think that's the difference. I think the Bills win

888
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 3: this game. I would have at the minus two and

889
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 3: a half, but the injuries I want to wait on,

890
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 3: and then if it's at three, you know, already have

891
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 3: a fifty to one future, I'll probably let it go.

892
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 3: But I think that's the that's the handicap here. The

893
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 3: Bills run offense against the Chiefs run defense will be

894
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 3: the difference and enable them to have easier third down situations,

895
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: sustain longer drives, and the Bills should be able to,

896
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 3: you know, as long as there's not too many injuries

897
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 3: in the back end, they can generate pressure off the edge.

898
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 3: And that's where people talk about the wide receivers for

899
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, which are an issue. Kelsey isn't the same

900
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 3: guy that he once was. I was gonna, well, I'll

901
00:45:41,160 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 3: get your thoughts in this next so the pass catchers

902
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 3: aren't as great, but the tackles are of are a problem,

903
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 3: and the Bills can exploit that without having the blitz.

904
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 3: You know, the Dolphins had a blitz a bunch and

905
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 3: play cover zero last week, which you know doesn't really

906
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 3: work against homes. You don't want to blitz moms. You

907
00:45:56,520 --> 00:45:58,760
Speaker 3: want to be able to get pressure, which the Bills

908
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:00,360
Speaker 3: can do assuming they don't have too many in the

909
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 3: back end. So I think it's a pretty good matchup

910
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 3: in that sense. They can get pressure off the edge.

911
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,879
Speaker 3: I was thinking about Kelsey underprops, but then I look

912
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 3: every playoff game and then every game against the Bills.

913
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 3: I mean, Kelsey, you just bet that Kelsey over catches

914
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 3: he gets. I mean, he's gonna got ten eleven targets.

915
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 3: So I couldn't do it, even though I was like,

916
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 3: there's this this one, there's definitely gonna be overinflated. But

917
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 3: I I personally couldn't do anything on Kelsey. And then

918
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 3: what are your thoughts in the game.

919
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, as far as Kelsey, I wouldn't really want to

920
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: touch his unders. Yes, he's not the same guy, but uh,

921
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 1: you know, Buffalo has been I mean, this has been

922
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: happening a year. They've gotten injuries at linebacker and and

923
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 1: things like that. So you know, in this spot, especially

924
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 1: Rice coming off a big game, especially because the Chiefs

925
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 1: could be down more than there used to being down,

926
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 1: so you could get some you know, some stuff happening late.

927
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 2: He did play.

928
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 1: He ran around at ninety one percent of their drop back,

929
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:53,800
Speaker 1: so it's not like he's really coming out of the

930
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: game much.

931
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,360
Speaker 2: So I wouldn't don't love Kelsey unders as now.

932
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: Now it depends, you know, if the market continues to

933
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 1: go up, you know maybe, but you know, follow us

934
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: an app.

935
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 3: We'll see if.

936
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 2: We end up doing that.

937
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,720
Speaker 1: A Now, a quick word from our sponsor, Hello Fresh.

938
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Speaker 1: number one meal. Kids a game, Yeah, I agree. I

959
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 1: think Kansas City tackle is going to be an issue

960
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: that's never good. Your run defense is the weakest unit

961
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 1: in the game. That's not ideal Against Buffalo, both quarterbacks

962
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: can create off schedule and off script, so you know

963
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: that advantage. You know, Mahomes gets to the playoffs, so

964
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 1: it's like, you can't sack this guy. He's gonna scramble

965
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,399
Speaker 1: and just have some incredible runs. But Josh Allen could

966
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 1: do the same thing. I mean, that run against Pittsburgh

967
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 1: was just absurd when he faked had a little hitch fake.

968
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: The slide or whatever. So I think you kind of

969
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: match it up equally there Buffalo. You know, we'll see

970
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 1: about Gabe Davis. But you know, Buffalo still with Diggs

971
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: and Shakir, I think still has better receivers sales.

972
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:01,919
Speaker 3: I liked. I want Davis in there for a run block.

973
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

974
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 1: He's great at run buck and that's that's where you're

975
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,239
Speaker 1: gonna miss him. But yeah, Buffalo has options too. You know,

976
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 1: Buffalo can go to tight ends if they want. With

977
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:12,239
Speaker 1: Knox and KK they can still go three wide if

978
00:49:12,239 --> 00:49:12,600
Speaker 1: they want.

979
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, I like. I like Buffalo here at home.

980
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: You know, regular season, Buffalo has tended to own them

981
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:23,440
Speaker 1: and then Kansas City when he gets to the playoffs.

982
00:49:23,960 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 2: But this is the first time Kansas City's playing.

983
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 3: First time my home's true road game.

984
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, in the playoffs right outside you know, neutral games

985
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl, sure, but you know this is

986
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 1: a little different here.

987
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, I give Buffalo the edge.

988
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,879
Speaker 1: Not sure if I have a pick on the game.

989
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 1: I mean, it also depends on the market. If it

990
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 1: goes back to two and a half, no juice, I'll

991
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 1: see if I get there. I think I'm at I

992
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 1: think I'm around three right now, so not a ton

993
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 1: of an edge on Buffalo, But as I dig into

994
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 1: the matchup, as we see the injury report, because I

995
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 1: you know, I thought I was gonna have Buffalo closer

996
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: to four, all things be at equal, everything healthy. But

997
00:49:57,680 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 1: right now, you know, it's just so early in the

998
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: week that we don't know exactly who's in who's out yet.

999
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:04,839
Speaker 2: But yeah, I like Buffalo in this game. I don't

1000
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 2: think you know, if in west of Line.

1001
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 1: Got to three to five, and you know Buffalo had

1002
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 1: a bunch of injuries that weren't going to be fixed

1003
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:13,279
Speaker 1: by this game, then maybe I'd look at case because

1004
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: that Mahomes is a dog. Mahomes is a dog or

1005
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,320
Speaker 1: a favorite by a field goal or less, so essentially,

1006
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 1: anytime he's not a favorite by more than a field goal,

1007
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 1: he is twenty eight and one seventy one percent against

1008
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 1: the spread, so that there is profitable Mahome trends.

1009
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 2: But I just kind of like what you said, I

1010
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:31,440
Speaker 2: don't think this is the same chief offense.

1011
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 1: I do think that Rashid Rice kind of going more

1012
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 1: downfield than truly emerging is that top receiver does help.

1013
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 3: But Damas would be huge.

1014
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:40,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, playing.

1015
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 3: Is he healthy. That's a big factor, the emergence.

1016
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,760
Speaker 1: Of Rice, and I think the Buffalo and potential injuries,

1017
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: and then you know, the extra rest is what's working

1018
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,439
Speaker 1: in Kansas City's favorite Buffalo. I think the better team,

1019
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 1: all things being equal, home field, better team would expect

1020
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 1: him to win a game. So that's just one we'll

1021
00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: have to see till later in the week, because I

1022
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 1: mean later in the week. I didn't bet the Bucks

1023
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 1: the later in the week. I didn't bet the Texas

1024
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:04,319
Speaker 1: the later in the reef. So do follow me an

1025
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 1: app actress Raybond stuck?

1026
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:07,719
Speaker 2: Is that stuck you two? And see if we get

1027
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 2: down in any of these.

1028
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, either like three seven with the injuries

1029
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:16,239
Speaker 3: the short week, I'm now just like sitting around three

1030
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:19,319
Speaker 3: and then went to wait to see what I get

1031
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,240
Speaker 3: from there. It would be funny. I think the Ravens

1032
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 3: would be depending I mean depending on what happens this

1033
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:25,000
Speaker 3: week with Indrews, But I think the Ravens would be

1034
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 3: a favorite of a field goal next week at home

1035
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:29,800
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs. But it would be funny if the

1036
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 3: Ravens were minus two and a half and then because

1037
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 3: like Lamar and mahomes are like combined like one hundred

1038
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:40,680
Speaker 3: and two and one against the spread as an underdog

1039
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 3: or favorite of the under a field goal. So you

1040
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 3: could make you could just anyone make it a case

1041
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,080
Speaker 3: for either side could use that trend, which would be

1042
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 3: hilarious because it works for both. But the one thing, God,

1043
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 3: this is just the stupid that doesn't meet anything. It's

1044
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 3: the staple size is small. But this is Kelsey's last

1045
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 3: ten playoff games. Eight on ten targets for one oh nine, thirteen,

1046
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 3: fifteen targets for one eighteen, ten on fifteen targets for

1047
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 3: one thirty three, five on seven targets for one eight,

1048
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 3: eight on nine for ninety six, ten on eleven for

1049
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 3: ninety five, fourteen on seventeen, targets for ninety eight, seven

1050
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 3: on eight for seventy eight, six on six for eighty

1051
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 3: one last week, seven on ten targets for seventy one.

1052
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 3: I have to assume he went he's ten and oh

1053
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 3: on the over receiving yards and there's ten games. Maybe

1054
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 3: he does this is there's reception ard totals. Ever in

1055
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 3: the eighties, I guess in the past they happened, right.

1056
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 1: They have been in the past but he definitely went

1057
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 1: over this last one against the Dolphins.

1058
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 5: I think it was like fifties. So yeah, even even

1059
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:39,399
Speaker 5: that's with three drops, and that's with three drops. Yeah,

1060
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 5: maybe the one gets since he had seventy eight yards.

1061
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 5: I wentver, but like I look back at that and

1062
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 5: I was like, I'm out.

1063
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 2: You getting that negative game script and it's just gonna

1064
00:52:48,080 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 2: get away from you fast, if you know.

1065
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 3: So Rolscow Ravens for futures and I know a lot

1066
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 3: of people that are listening to all this, so let's uh,

1067
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:57,840
Speaker 3: let's get them home and have another good weekend.

1068
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 2: Yeah they're and again Stucky said Shout.

1069
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:03,960
Speaker 1: So everyone who came out this past weekend in Jersey

1070
00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:06,719
Speaker 1: on Saturday and Sunday really was fun to meet to

1071
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 1: audi out and appreciate all the kind words.

1072
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 2: And hopefully we can keep it rolling. So h that

1073
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 2: is going to be a rap.

1074
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 1: We'll still be here every Thursday throughout the NFL playoffs.

1075
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 1: You can have to hear more of me with my

1076
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,800
Speaker 1: guy Kerner talking Fantasy dfs all that good stuff on

1077
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Flex Pod, and we'll have our Projections pod

1078
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 1: as well, and you can hear Stuck talking college hoops

1079
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 1: over on the Big Bets on Campus Pod Monday and Friday.

1080
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 1: As mentioned, Stuck is on the app at Stucky too,

1081
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 1: and I'm at Chris Raybond. That's the Action app. It's

1082
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 1: amazing for tracking your bets, for following others, just for

1083
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:43,799
Speaker 1: just for line shopping, which you know is another thing

1084
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 1: that's really great for.

1085
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 3: So be sure down by the way, listener when you

1086
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:49,800
Speaker 3: do your current, when you do your current episode this

1087
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 3: week recorded that yeah right, no, uh say you have

1088
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 3: a listener question. Mm hmm, that's what listener question from

1089
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:02,280
Speaker 3: Stucky and and you can need to just two ten seconds,

1090
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 3: but the people want to hear more. I need one

1091
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 3: question on Auton on his prop value, if there's if

1092
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 3: you're fading him, if you're not, if they're right, I

1093
00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 3: want to hear both your thoughts on him on the pod.

1094
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 1: Right now, I can tell you we both have him

1095
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 1: at thirty receiving yards on the dot and his his

1096
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: prop I believe it's thirty and a half.

1097
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, right down, not showing any value. But yeah, we'll

1098
00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:23,759
Speaker 2: dive into it deeper.

1099
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 3: As long as there's no aut in fate the people's but.

1100
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is going to do it for us stuck

1101
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 1: on Twitter at the same name as the app. At

1102
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:35,759
Speaker 1: second two, I'm at Chris Raybon Until next time, Let's

1103
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: get a dish money. So Go Action Network reminds you

1104
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 1: please gamble responsibly.

1105
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1106
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:53,799
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1107
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler