WEBVTT - Warner Bros. Reopens Talks as Paramount Signals Higher Bid

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio, well on media News.

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<v Speaker 2>Warner Brothers Discovery has agreed to reopen negotiations with Paramount

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<v Speaker 2>Skydance after Paramount proposts raising its bid and sweetened other

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<v Speaker 2>terms of its offer, setting the stage for a renewed

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<v Speaker 2>showdown with Netflix. This according to a statement on Tuesday.

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<v Speaker 2>This wasn't news to any of you, though, because you

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<v Speaker 2>all saw Lucas Shaw and Michelle F. Davis's scoop on

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<v Speaker 2>Sunday when they exclusively reported that Warner Brothers was weighing.

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<v Speaker 3>Reopening networking over the weekend with Paramount.

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<v Speaker 2>Lucashaw's Managing editor for Media Entertainment for Bloomberg News. Michelle

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<v Speaker 2>Davis is the Bloomberg News Senior m and a reporter.

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<v Speaker 2>Lucas is in La Michelle is here in our Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>Interactive at Broker's studio, Michelle, I want to start with

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<v Speaker 2>you the deal, the Netflix versus the Paramount deal. These

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<v Speaker 2>are not apples and orange or apples to apples. It's

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<v Speaker 2>apples and oranges. What is different though about Paramount skuy

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<v Speaker 2>Dances deal this time versus you know, a few weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean, and this is the moment we've kind

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<v Speaker 4>of all been waiting for, because, of course, Paramount has

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<v Speaker 4>been saying for months, you know, thirty wasn't our best

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<v Speaker 4>and final offer. And what's really different. The big news

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<v Speaker 4>that came out this morning was that it came out

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<v Speaker 4>that Paramount's banker basically called Warner Brothers and said, hey,

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<v Speaker 4>if you guys engage with us, we will offer at

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<v Speaker 4>least thirty one dollars per share. This was after last

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<v Speaker 4>week Paramount had made some concessions that the Warner Brothers

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<v Speaker 4>board had been asking for, and so now during the

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<v Speaker 4>next seven days it's basically the time for Paramount to

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<v Speaker 4>show whatever it's best and final is. Warner Brothers has said,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, put your best foot forward. This is going

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<v Speaker 4>to you know, put up or shut up basically, and

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<v Speaker 4>so we'll see if you know what Paramount comes up with.

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<v Speaker 3>So now the ball is in the court of Netflix.

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<v Speaker 4>The ball is in Paramount's court right now. So right now,

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<v Speaker 4>Warner Brothers will be talking to Paramount to clarify the

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<v Speaker 4>terms of its latest offer. Basically, they want whatever Paaramount

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<v Speaker 4>has said in writing. If the board determines that this

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<v Speaker 4>is a superior offer, then Netflix will have a chance

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<v Speaker 4>to match it. And remember, as the incumbent, Netflix only

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<v Speaker 4>has to match or tie whatever Paaramount has put on

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<v Speaker 4>the table because they're not apples to apples. That means

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<v Speaker 4>it doesn't technically have to be the same number. The

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<v Speaker 4>board will have to weigh, you know, if they are

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<v Speaker 4>on equal footing, and that would put Netflix in the

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<v Speaker 4>lead again.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, Lucas Shaw, come on in here. You're joining us

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<v Speaker 2>from LA. You've been following this deal, you know since

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<v Speaker 2>before the beginning. Is this a start of any bidding war?

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<v Speaker 5>That's what Warner Brothers Discovery shareholders are hoping for, right

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<v Speaker 5>I think Michelle talked about this a little bit. There's

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<v Speaker 5>been a desire that in the thought that Paramount would

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<v Speaker 5>go higher. That they are backed by the Ellisant family,

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<v Speaker 5>they have hundreds of billions of dollars and they can

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<v Speaker 5>spend even more, and it feels inevitable that Paramount will

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<v Speaker 5>offer more money, and then it will be up to

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<v Speaker 5>Netflix whether it wants to meet that or not. So

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<v Speaker 5>I think the price is certainly going up, but I

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<v Speaker 5>don't know if it's going to be a frenzy bidding war, right.

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<v Speaker 5>Netflix shareholders certainly don't want to see a crazy bidding war,

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<v Speaker 5>And even though Paramount shareholders don't ultimately have a say,

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<v Speaker 5>except for the Ellisons, I don't think they want to

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<v Speaker 5>see the company get even more levered and indebted than

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<v Speaker 5>it already is and will be if it does this deal.

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<v Speaker 3>Who's Hollywood rooting for Lucas.

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<v Speaker 5>Hollywood's pretty split, you know. I think initially the shock

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<v Speaker 5>of the Netflix deal made people against it. You know,

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<v Speaker 5>Netflix has had a big impact on how this business works,

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<v Speaker 5>some for good, some for bad. The more time goes by,

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<v Speaker 5>I think people are divided. Right, Folks who really care

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<v Speaker 5>about movie theaters still tend to be against the Netflix deal.

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<v Speaker 5>They don't really believe Netflix when they say they're going

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<v Speaker 5>to put movies in leaders. People who are perhaps liberal

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<v Speaker 5>leaning politically, which is a lot of Hollywood, are very

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<v Speaker 5>worried about the Ellison's impact on CPS news and then

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<v Speaker 5>in terms of jobs, it's sort of hard to say, right,

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<v Speaker 5>Paramount is would be way more likely to fire people

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<v Speaker 5>right away. They've pouted billions of dollars in synergies, but

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<v Speaker 5>you know, Netflix could have a more negative impact on

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<v Speaker 5>the larger ecosystem. Netflix is certainly arguing that they're better

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<v Speaker 5>for Hollywood, Paramount saying the same. Yeah, and I think

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<v Speaker 5>people don't really know how to feel well on that.

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<v Speaker 3>Netflix did issue a statement and they said, while we

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<v Speaker 3>are confident that our transaction provides superior value and certainty,

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<v Speaker 3>we recognize the ongoing distraction for Warner Brothers Discovery stockholders

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<v Speaker 3>and the broader entertainment industry caused by Paramount Sky Scott

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<v Speaker 3>Ants's antics. And this was a statement that they put out.

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<v Speaker 3>They go on to say, this does not change the

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<v Speaker 3>fact that we have the only signed, board recommended agreement

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<v Speaker 3>with Warner Brothers Discovery, and ours is the only certain

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<v Speaker 3>path to delivering value to Warner brother Discovery stockholders.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, they're right, right, Well, will Michelle come on in

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<v Speaker 2>on that? I mean, is you know thirty one dollars

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<v Speaker 2>a share? Would is this best and final coming from

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<v Speaker 2>Paramount's guidance.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's the big question. The Paramount banker that

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<v Speaker 4>had reached out to Warner Brothers said we would offer

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<v Speaker 4>or Paramount would offer at least thirty one dollars per share.

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<v Speaker 4>But there's also some documentation issues that still need to

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<v Speaker 4>be worked through. Warner Brothers wants to be allowed to

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<v Speaker 4>operate kind of freely in the interim period before this

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<v Speaker 4>deal closes, and Paramount has held back on some things

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<v Speaker 4>that Warner Brothers has wanted. In an ideal scenario, Paramount

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<v Speaker 4>would just basically take the Netflix agreement, erase Netflix's name

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<v Speaker 4>and put its own name there and you know, higher

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<v Speaker 4>share price, and that would be enough to get the

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<v Speaker 4>deal done. It might not be as easy.

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<v Speaker 2>They want, but they want the Linear Networks too.

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<v Speaker 6>They do.

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<v Speaker 4>But there are you know, certain terms that are may

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<v Speaker 4>maybe friendly or to Warner Brothers that Paramount has been

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<v Speaker 4>dragging its heels on Lucas.

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<v Speaker 3>Is this about what David Zaslov wants ultimately for his

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<v Speaker 3>company or is it just about getting the best financial deal, which,

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<v Speaker 3>to be fair, yes, but also as someone selling their company,

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<v Speaker 3>they do want to get the best deal for their shareholders.

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<v Speaker 6>I would assume.

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<v Speaker 5>Look, David As obviously has a lot of influence on

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<v Speaker 5>the process. Who's the CEO of the company. He's on

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<v Speaker 5>the board, a lot of people on the board know

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<v Speaker 5>and like him, But I don't think he gets to

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<v Speaker 5>make the final decision here.

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<v Speaker 4>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>You have a number of very experienced board members who've

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<v Speaker 5>been through a lot of deals. They added a few

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<v Speaker 5>people to their board over the last year two essentially

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<v Speaker 5>an anticipation of this moment. I think they're looking at

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<v Speaker 5>what's best for the company and what's best for shareholders.

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<v Speaker 5>It's pretty clear that the board has had a preference

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<v Speaker 5>for the kind of Netflix's offer, and also how Netflix

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<v Speaker 5>has gone about the process. I don't think that should

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<v Speaker 5>be a huge surprise. Netflix has a much larger and

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<v Speaker 5>more valuable company and has been run better over the

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<v Speaker 5>last decade than Paramount has. So if you're saying, who

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<v Speaker 5>do I trust to kind of handle these assets, that

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<v Speaker 5>would be Netflix. And so there's an aspect of what

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<v Speaker 5>they're doing here where they're basically saying Paramount blow us

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<v Speaker 5>away because we know, if you only go up a

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<v Speaker 5>dollar or two, Netflix is probably gonna yeah. But if

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<v Speaker 5>you go up five dollars, got it? Which probably can

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<v Speaker 5>and we got.

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<v Speaker 3>To take it all right, Lucas Shaw, so appreciate it.

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<v Speaker 3>Michelle Davis as well. The latest check it out on

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<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 7>If you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, catch

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<v Speaker 3>When we look at the markets, we are also keeping

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<v Speaker 3>a watch on Apple because we are seeing that stock

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<v Speaker 3>move in today's session. The shares prices up about four

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<v Speaker 3>percent here, so quite a spike here. Happening on a

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg exclusive this the company is accelerating development of three

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<v Speaker 3>new wearable devices as part of a shift toward artificial

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<v Speaker 3>intelligence powered hardware. It's a category tim also being pursued

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<v Speaker 3>by Open AI meta platforms. I mean, everybody's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>moving into space.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to bring in a marker. I mean he's

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<v Speaker 2>in our LA bureau. He's Bloomberg News Managing editor for

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<v Speaker 2>Global Consumer Tech. Congratulations on yet another scoop glasses, a

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<v Speaker 2>pendant and camera AirPods.

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<v Speaker 6>What did you learn?

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so Apple's been working on these devices for quite

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<v Speaker 8>a while, and the strategy is to hit consumers wherever

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<v Speaker 8>they want their AI, whether it's on their face, whether

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<v Speaker 8>it's on their body, whether it's around their neck, whether

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<v Speaker 8>it's in their ears, creating different devices for different features,

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<v Speaker 8>with different types of cameras. You can see there's different

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<v Speaker 8>tears here. Obviously, the pendant is something entry level, it's

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<v Speaker 8>an accessory eyes and ears to the phone. The air

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<v Speaker 8>pods is something more substantial, right with that audio gear

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<v Speaker 8>in there. And then there's the high end of the

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<v Speaker 8>AI strategy being the smart glasses with the high resolution camera,

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<v Speaker 8>a computer vision camera, all sorts of functionality to really

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<v Speaker 8>augment without a display, your real world experience using AI.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, so all built around the serie digital assistant. We

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<v Speaker 3>all know our love and dislike of all I know,

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<v Speaker 3>I know and being a little obnoxious. Are frustrated, which

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<v Speaker 3>it was Siri. Don't they have to get Siri right first?

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<v Speaker 6>Mark, That's exactly right.

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<v Speaker 8>All of these products hinge on them being able to

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<v Speaker 8>bring the new sery to market in it actually being

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<v Speaker 8>to your point effective. They were supposed to launch it

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<v Speaker 8>actually this month by way of introducing it, and they

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<v Speaker 8>were supposed to release it to consumers sometime next month

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<v Speaker 8>as part of iOS twenty six point four. But I

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<v Speaker 8>reported last week they had hit a bunch of snags

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<v Speaker 8>and issues and that Seri will not be arriving this spring.

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<v Speaker 8>The Personalized Theoria will be arriving later this year, in

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<v Speaker 8>addition to some of the other Serie features. And so

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<v Speaker 8>none of this launches until those launch, and so we'll

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<v Speaker 8>see what happens, but it all hinges on that.

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<v Speaker 2>So I want to drill into some of these devices

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<v Speaker 2>that you've been reporting on that you have reported on

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<v Speaker 2>in this piece dependent the eyes and ears connected to

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<v Speaker 2>the iPhone, what exactly does an Apple pendant do? And look,

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<v Speaker 2>we should note it's no guarantee that all of these

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<v Speaker 2>are going to come to market, right.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I do think these are ultimately all going to launch,

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<v Speaker 8>But like I was saying, they have worked on other

0:10:05.080 --> 0:10:08.360
<v Speaker 8>wearables with cameras that they canceled last May. They canceled

0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.959
<v Speaker 8>an Apple Watch and Apple Watch Ultra with a camera.

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<v Speaker 8>So we'll see what happens, but this is something that

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<v Speaker 8>they're seriously working on. Tim Cook held an all hands

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<v Speaker 8>meeting with employees earlier this month, where he said the

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<v Speaker 8>company is investing heavily and new stuff. He did acknowledge

0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.040
<v Speaker 8>that AI devices are the future, and he said the

0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.600
<v Speaker 8>world is moving fast, and so he hinted that these

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<v Speaker 8>were coming.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, Mark, I want to look at ADRs of esalar Lexotica.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the parent company of many glasses brands out there.

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<v Speaker 2>They work very closely with Meta platforms. You've been outspoken

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<v Speaker 2>about how well the meta platforms glasses work. If Apple

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<v Speaker 2>is indeed competing with es Lexotica, and after your piece

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<v Speaker 2>came out, we saw shares take a dive on the

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<v Speaker 2>day today. If indeed Apple is working on a competitor

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<v Speaker 2>to Meta's glasses, what can you tell us about what

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<v Speaker 2>would differentiate them, what would be the Apple experience, how

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<v Speaker 2>they'd be different than what's out there on the market.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I mean the main two things are camera technology

0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:10.920
<v Speaker 8>and build quality. That's according to people working on the glasses.

0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.679
<v Speaker 8>They believe that the build quality using things like acrylic

0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.960
<v Speaker 8>and other higher end non plastic materials are going to

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<v Speaker 8>make their glasses a bit higher end and more premium

0:11:20.520 --> 0:11:23.720
<v Speaker 8>than what Meta is offering. Obviously, Meta works with slew

0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:27.240
<v Speaker 8>different brands. They've got Oakley, They've got ray Ban and

0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:31.520
<v Speaker 8>obviously Prada is the biggest fashion oriented brand under the

0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.560
<v Speaker 8>Extra Exotica umbrella, and so you'll see Prata versions of

0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:38.360
<v Speaker 8>the metaglasses probably sometime this year, but definitely that's what

0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:41.479
<v Speaker 8>they're trying to differentiate on. The other is camera technology.

0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.240
<v Speaker 8>The metaglasses, they have one camera that can move between

0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:47.280
<v Speaker 8>computer vision and for photo and video. Apple has a

0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:50.520
<v Speaker 8>dedicated photo video camera and a dedicated computer vision camera,

0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:53.280
<v Speaker 8>and their belief is by having both cameras they can

0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:55.760
<v Speaker 8>get a better quality on each of those factors.

0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.560
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Mark, what about the time you hear I mean,

0:11:57.600 --> 0:11:59.280
<v Speaker 3>this is a pretty deep dive, and I know you've

0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.680
<v Speaker 3>got your sources and all that good stuff and good

0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:04.040
<v Speaker 3>reads on the company, but it sounds like there has

0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:06.600
<v Speaker 3>been a lot going on behind the scenes when it

0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:09.320
<v Speaker 3>comes to how they're thinking about the AI world and

0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.200
<v Speaker 3>what it means for hardware, and it sounds like some

0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:14.680
<v Speaker 3>of that is starting to maybe early but payoff in

0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:16.760
<v Speaker 3>terms of they've got specifics here.

0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:21.439
<v Speaker 8>Well, nothing's going to start paying off until Siri is ready.

0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:23.560
<v Speaker 8>Like I said, the releases of this hardware will all

0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.160
<v Speaker 8>hinge on them having a working voice assistant. And the

0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.640
<v Speaker 8>hope is with this Gemini partnership, they will have one,

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.439
<v Speaker 8>and I'm pretty confident they will have one. I think

0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:33.520
<v Speaker 8>the way that they're going to revamp iOS in the

0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.000
<v Speaker 8>fall with their new Campo Voice Assistant, that's the code

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.400
<v Speaker 8>name for this new version of Siri, in integrating the

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 8>Gemini models throughout the system, I think it's going to

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.000
<v Speaker 8>be fairly effective. So they need to get that done.

0:12:44.400 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 8>In terms of the timing, for a while now, they

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.560
<v Speaker 8>have been earmarking and introduction of the small glasses at

0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 8>the tail end of this year, with production beginning at

0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:54.880
<v Speaker 8>the very end of this year. I'm told production is

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:58.280
<v Speaker 8>still planned for December. That's beginning of production, with the

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.559
<v Speaker 8>release sometime in twenty twenty, so next year. The AirPods

0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.560
<v Speaker 8>could be released as early as this year, but of

0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:08.560
<v Speaker 8>course that hinges as well on the Gemini partnership in

0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.800
<v Speaker 8>Serie working out, and the Pendant is likely an end

0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:13.440
<v Speaker 8>of twenty seven thing at the earliest.

0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:18.640
<v Speaker 2>Hey Mark, just last question analysts, investors, they want to

0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.120
<v Speaker 2>know the next killer product from Apple, and I think

0:13:21.200 --> 0:13:23.040
<v Speaker 2>some people thought it would be a car years ago.

0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.760
<v Speaker 2>That's obviously not happening. Some people thought it could be

0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.559
<v Speaker 2>Vision Pro that's obviously not happening at the end of

0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.640
<v Speaker 2>the day. Is your piece notes. All of this still

0:13:31.720 --> 0:13:38.200
<v Speaker 2>sort of hinges around the Apple iPhone ecosystem iOS. These

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.800
<v Speaker 2>are still all tertiary products, right, These are no sort

0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:45.920
<v Speaker 2>of like freestanding single product that is like the next

0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.199
<v Speaker 2>killer piece of hardware.

0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:48.480
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 8>Well, I think it's the family of AI wearables that

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.160
<v Speaker 8>is the sort of next big thing. It's not one

0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:56.319
<v Speaker 8>single item, but it is things. It is a group

0:13:56.360 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 8>of things. And so you'll see AI wearables be one

0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:02.680
<v Speaker 8>new category, and then you'll see home devices be another

0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:05.319
<v Speaker 8>big category from Apple. So those are the next two

0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.720
<v Speaker 8>big categories, with the through line being AI and them

0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 8>being able to launch neither until the AI works all.

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.680
<v Speaker 3>Right, Great stuff, as always, another exclusive from our Markerman Mark.

0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:16.719
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much for jumping on with us and

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:19.640
<v Speaker 3>laying this out. Mark German, Managing editor for Global Consumer

0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.560
<v Speaker 3>Tech at Bloomberg News. Joining us from the Bloomberg News

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 3>bureau in Los Angeles.

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:29.560
<v Speaker 7>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Listen live

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:32.560
<v Speaker 7>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.440
<v Speaker 7>Play and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.320
<v Speaker 7>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 7>flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty,

0:14:44.440 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 7>I got.

0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.880
<v Speaker 3>To say in Jeffrey Epstein's World few billionaires, though loom

0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:50.960
<v Speaker 3>as large as Leon Blacks, certainly very well known to

0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:54.240
<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg audience. The Justice Department's largest release yet of

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.960
<v Speaker 3>the Epstein file shows he was Leon Black's stealthy, do

0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:01.200
<v Speaker 3>it all fixer. And I mean it's interesting is our

0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.960
<v Speaker 3>team is going through documents, you realize how close Epstein

0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 3>was with a lot of very influential people.

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 2>Hey, part of that team includes Max Abilson. He's Bloomberg

0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 2>News financi reporter. He joins us here in the Bloomberg

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:15.640
<v Speaker 2>Interactive Broker's studio. We're going to get to what you

0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:17.640
<v Speaker 2>found in your story, what you found going through this

0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:21.840
<v Speaker 2>latest batch of files, which at this point was two

0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:27.000
<v Speaker 2>weeks ago, but still the stories are still coming out.

0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:30.760
<v Speaker 2>I mean, how do you do this something like this?

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.240
<v Speaker 2>How do you take on a trove like this and

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.880
<v Speaker 2>then find the stories and tease them ount? I mean,

0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 2>this is kind of unlike anything that journalists have had

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:39.200
<v Speaker 2>to do.

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.960
<v Speaker 9>That's such a that's such a generous question. Thank you

0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:46.040
<v Speaker 9>for asking that. Well, I'll tell you, I'll give you

0:15:46.080 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 9>the real answer. The real answer, first of all, is teamwork.

0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:53.440
<v Speaker 9>I think of this Epstein work, at least for me personally,

0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.800
<v Speaker 9>is kind of bifurcated into two different eras. Last year

0:15:57.280 --> 0:16:00.680
<v Speaker 9>I worked with an incredible team, people like Harry Wilson

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:05.040
<v Speaker 9>and archarlie'deva and Jason and Lauren Eder, and it goes

0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:08.520
<v Speaker 9>on and on, and we had access to I mean,

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.480
<v Speaker 9>it was so many emails to us. It was like

0:16:10.760 --> 0:16:13.960
<v Speaker 9>eighteen thousands, more than nineteen thousand emails. And we spent

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:17.360
<v Speaker 9>months together digging, and you know, thinking like, okay, geez,

0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.640
<v Speaker 9>you understand the law, so you dig into lawyers. You know,

0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:21.960
<v Speaker 9>you understand the investments. You look into that, or money

0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:23.600
<v Speaker 9>laundering you look into that. We split it up, we

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 9>worked together. It was it was a very honestly, it

0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 9>was quite a moving experience. It was also extremely grim,

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:35.760
<v Speaker 9>as you might imagine. But eighteen thousand, I mean that's

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 9>a pimple. That's nothing compared to what's been happening in

0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:41.920
<v Speaker 9>these last few weeks, three and a half million files.

0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:45.680
<v Speaker 9>I mean, I want to be my professional self and

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 9>make sense of it for you too, and for viewers

0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:52.120
<v Speaker 9>and listeners. But just to be honest, it is hard

0:16:52.160 --> 0:16:54.760
<v Speaker 9>to make sense of it. The scale alone, just how

0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 9>much material there is here to be to sort of

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.000
<v Speaker 9>meet these documents where they are and to not either

0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 9>be dismissive of them and be like, you know, well,

0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 9>what does it matter it's so much, or rather I

0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.000
<v Speaker 9>should say, to not be overwhelmed by them, and then

0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.480
<v Speaker 9>to not sort of wave our arms and get overly

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 9>excited about things that aren't really there. So we're splitting

0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 9>it up. I worked with Laura Benitez for the story

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.320
<v Speaker 9>about Leon Black at David Sheer, our editor, and what

0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.440
<v Speaker 9>we did is we clicked one after another and we're

0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:27.119
<v Speaker 9>trying to read them all, trying to put them into

0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:30.359
<v Speaker 9>chronological order, trying to understand them, trying to understand what

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.800
<v Speaker 9>they mean, and trying to understand these relationships.

0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:35.080
<v Speaker 3>Because not everything's in order right, and there's redacted stuff

0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:37.600
<v Speaker 3>and you've got to kind of sometimes piece things together correct.

0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:42.159
<v Speaker 9>I would be so happy or in order, and you

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 9>know what, I feel very proud of working in the

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.040
<v Speaker 9>news room with journalists who I admire and we're fond of.

0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:48.639
<v Speaker 9>But I want to give a shout out not just

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:52.359
<v Speaker 9>to our colleagues across Wall street journalism who've been looking

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.719
<v Speaker 9>into Epstein and Leon Black now for years or at

0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 9>least for months, if not years and years.

0:17:57.480 --> 0:17:58.080
<v Speaker 6>In some cases.

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:02.119
<v Speaker 9>But in this case, you know, even just readers who

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.680
<v Speaker 9>are interested, people on Twitter, people who are digging in.

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:07.680
<v Speaker 9>It seems it's like reminds me of like being in school.

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.200
<v Speaker 9>It's like a large group project. Everyone's kind of throwing in.

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:16.600
<v Speaker 9>People are looking and it's fun to be digging alongside

0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:18.200
<v Speaker 9>what feels like kind of a collective effort.

0:18:18.320 --> 0:18:18.840
<v Speaker 6>Well, let's dig.

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 2>Let's talk about that digging. So I just want to

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.960
<v Speaker 2>throw out some numbers here. Leon Black has acknowledged paying

0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:26.800
<v Speaker 2>Jeffrey Epstein one hundred and fifty eight million dollars over

0:18:26.800 --> 0:18:28.679
<v Speaker 2>the year, saying it was for advice on a state

0:18:29.160 --> 0:18:34.720
<v Speaker 2>and tax planning. The new relylease documents, though that you

0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.160
<v Speaker 2>and the team found said it was for much more

0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:39.600
<v Speaker 2>than just a state and tax planning. What else did

0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:39.840
<v Speaker 2>he do?

0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.879
<v Speaker 9>Well, Just to be really, really, really specific, the way

0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:45.719
<v Speaker 9>I'm going to put it is going to be slightly

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:47.760
<v Speaker 9>different from that, which is the way that I'm going

0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:51.200
<v Speaker 9>to say it is. Leon Black's story up until now

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 9>has been like something along the lines of I don't

0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:55.400
<v Speaker 9>want to overgeneralize for him, but it's been something along

0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:57.719
<v Speaker 9>the lines of like, look, he gave me tax advice,

0:18:57.840 --> 0:18:59.920
<v Speaker 9>and his sax advice was good and it was worth it.

0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:01.680
<v Speaker 9>And there's some there's some other things on the side,

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:05.240
<v Speaker 9>things like estate planning and what our story is about.

0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:06.040
<v Speaker 6>And I hope.

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:08.000
<v Speaker 9>Viewers and listeners will go go check out our story

0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.920
<v Speaker 9>called the Leon Black Files. What it's about is some

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 9>really concrete things. One is one is an angry mistress.

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.240
<v Speaker 9>One is an angry mistress of of Leon Blacks, or

0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.160
<v Speaker 9>to be fair, I think at the time of these emails,

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 9>she was a former mistress. And and Epstein, who by

0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:29.359
<v Speaker 9>then was a sex offender, he helped Black kind of

0:19:29.480 --> 0:19:31.600
<v Speaker 9>kind of manage the situation. We can talk about in

0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 9>what ways and then let's let's think about sort of

0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:38.480
<v Speaker 9>off to the side. There are these I r S

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:42.119
<v Speaker 9>questions about gifts to another woman, this is this is

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.320
<v Speaker 9>going to be a second woman, and the way the

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 9>way that Epstein was a fixer for this man and

0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:52.119
<v Speaker 9>watching him work. Of course, you know, the best we

0:19:52.160 --> 0:19:55.120
<v Speaker 9>can do is watching his and send and receive emails.

0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:57.280
<v Speaker 9>But it was it was quite an experience for you know,

0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.280
<v Speaker 9>I've been. I've been at this now, writing about Wall Street,

0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.720
<v Speaker 9>ratting about money in our here at Bloomberg News for

0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:05.240
<v Speaker 9>fifteen years, maybe more now, But I can't remember the

0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:08.160
<v Speaker 9>last time I had the feeling of sort of watching

0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:12.120
<v Speaker 9>watching history unfold before me, or watching a movie. I mean,

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.840
<v Speaker 9>it's I don't want to make it sound fun or

0:20:15.960 --> 0:20:19.919
<v Speaker 9>romanticize it, because it's as grim and difficult work, but

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.640
<v Speaker 9>it really was amazing to see sort of email by email,

0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:27.359
<v Speaker 9>month by month, year by year, to see how Epstein

0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:31.840
<v Speaker 9>just goes to work trying to fix the dark secrets

0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:33.520
<v Speaker 9>of a very important billionaire.

0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:35.399
<v Speaker 3>You know, it always blows me away from just the

0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:37.919
<v Speaker 3>various things I've been reading here at Bloomberg and elsewhere

0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:40.280
<v Speaker 3>when it comes to Jeffrey Epstein is just the level

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:44.119
<v Speaker 3>of intimacy that he has with certainly people that we

0:20:44.200 --> 0:20:46.680
<v Speaker 3>cover so much at Bloomberg, with these titans of finance.

0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:50.119
<v Speaker 3>I mean, Apollo is kind of an iconic firm in

0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 3>many ways and very revered and still is on Wall Street,

0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:59.520
<v Speaker 3>and Leon Black created this firm, and so whether it's

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 3>Epstein helping with family portras like that stuck out like

0:21:03.480 --> 0:21:05.919
<v Speaker 3>that's a level like I understand maybe the estate planning,

0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:09.000
<v Speaker 3>because that's kind of what Epstein was doing. But the

0:21:09.160 --> 0:21:13.280
<v Speaker 3>involvement in even very personal things is kind of interesting.

0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:16.159
<v Speaker 9>That level I have relationship. I think that might be

0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:18.840
<v Speaker 9>one of the most profound things going on. You simply

0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:23.480
<v Speaker 9>cannot exaggerate it. The level of involvement and the level

0:21:23.560 --> 0:21:28.280
<v Speaker 9>of intimacy, personal and professional intimacy that Epstein craved and

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.800
<v Speaker 9>won from these powerful people. Know, I know for obvious

0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:33.840
<v Speaker 9>reasons that a lot of people who are interested in

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:36.199
<v Speaker 9>Epstein and interested in the Epstein files are john to

0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:39.080
<v Speaker 9>political leaders Bill Clinton, Donald Trump.

0:21:39.240 --> 0:21:39.880
<v Speaker 6>That makes sense.

0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:43.120
<v Speaker 9>These people were presidents and leaders of the free world,

0:21:43.440 --> 0:21:46.040
<v Speaker 9>as it were. But I want to say a word

0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:51.240
<v Speaker 9>for just focusing on the financial the financial moguls that

0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:52.640
<v Speaker 9>are involved.

0:21:52.560 --> 0:21:55.919
<v Speaker 3>And kind of have everything right, and they're wealthy, and

0:21:55.920 --> 0:21:57.800
<v Speaker 3>they seemed like it's just I'm not.

0:21:57.920 --> 0:21:59.119
<v Speaker 6>I don't know, that's right, I know.

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 9>I mean, do you remember, do you remember when I

0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:03.920
<v Speaker 9>worked with Jason on an oral history of Juxel Burnham Lambert.

0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:06.440
<v Speaker 9>You and I talked way many years ago, and you

0:22:06.480 --> 0:22:08.800
<v Speaker 9>know that that, of course is Michael Milkin and a

0:22:08.880 --> 0:22:12.280
<v Speaker 9>junk bond empire, and you know who was there back back.

0:22:12.119 --> 0:22:14.679
<v Speaker 6>Then sir Leon Black, right, and you know, to.

0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 9>Track his career that was of course, that was a

0:22:17.320 --> 0:22:19.520
<v Speaker 9>long time ago in nineteen eighties. But to at track

0:22:19.600 --> 0:22:22.240
<v Speaker 9>Leon Black's career and what he did with Apollo, I

0:22:22.280 --> 0:22:25.280
<v Speaker 9>think it's I think it's really fair to say that

0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 9>he and his peers are a part of the generation

0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 9>that reshaped the landscape of American finance the private equity.

0:22:32.920 --> 0:22:35.600
<v Speaker 9>Private equity was invented before then. Mainly I'm Black didn't

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 9>personally invent private equity. That wouldn't be fair, but ran

0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:41.880
<v Speaker 9>with it. But what Apollo and what Leon Black did

0:22:42.800 --> 0:22:46.560
<v Speaker 9>as shaping shaping American finance was important and is important,

0:22:46.600 --> 0:22:49.399
<v Speaker 9>and I hope that readers will find it important to

0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:53.560
<v Speaker 9>understand in detail and with fairness and with care and

0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:57.199
<v Speaker 9>with facts, just exactly what I've seen was doing. And

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:00.199
<v Speaker 9>you know, some of it was as you say, like

0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:03.879
<v Speaker 9>arranging you know, family portraits or you know, meeting is

0:23:04.040 --> 0:23:06.320
<v Speaker 9>his young adult kids. But but but some of it,

0:23:06.440 --> 0:23:08.119
<v Speaker 9>some of it was grim, some of it. You know,

0:23:08.200 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 9>you you described that Lean Black sort of would have

0:23:10.320 --> 0:23:12.879
<v Speaker 9>it all, but clearly he also had he also had

0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:16.840
<v Speaker 9>problems and issues, and and Epstein was clearly want to

0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:19.000
<v Speaker 9>work trying to help some of them.

0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:23.000
<v Speaker 2>The art side of this, What was the role of

0:23:23.280 --> 0:23:25.359
<v Speaker 2>art in your story?

0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:29.520
<v Speaker 9>Well, you know, I'll answer your your question, which has

0:23:29.560 --> 0:23:35.119
<v Speaker 9>to do with not only Paul Clay but also an

0:23:35.240 --> 0:23:36.879
<v Speaker 9>art book publishing company called Faidan.

0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:39.639
<v Speaker 2>But also it's a very famous company that makes like

0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:43.280
<v Speaker 2>very expensive beautiful books.

0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:44.800
<v Speaker 6>That's right, nice coffee table books.

0:23:44.920 --> 0:23:47.000
<v Speaker 9>I think I have some Fadan books in our library

0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:50.240
<v Speaker 9>at home, so I want to try to spell that out.

0:23:51.320 --> 0:23:53.359
<v Speaker 9>But I also just want to give a quick shout

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:56.120
<v Speaker 9>out to some of the reporting that we've been doing elsewhere.

0:23:56.200 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 9>There's a great story on Cambodian art, so went interested

0:24:00.600 --> 0:24:02.359
<v Speaker 9>in the Epstein Files and art told check out the

0:24:02.359 --> 0:24:06.400
<v Speaker 9>Bloomberg News piece on Cambodian art. There's also there's also

0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:10.080
<v Speaker 9>more more in this general subject of art in the

0:24:10.119 --> 0:24:12.480
<v Speaker 9>Epstein Files. But in this case, but in this case,

0:24:13.280 --> 0:24:17.840
<v Speaker 9>it's fair to say that one of Black's investment vehicles

0:24:18.640 --> 0:24:21.600
<v Speaker 9>agreed to pay I want to say, a one point

0:24:21.640 --> 0:24:24.800
<v Speaker 9>eight million dollar commission for helping to sell a Paul

0:24:24.840 --> 0:24:28.000
<v Speaker 9>Clay oil work, and that was like, you know, about

0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:31.760
<v Speaker 9>twenty three percent of the sale price, and that money

0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:36.480
<v Speaker 9>went to one of the women that I was describing before.

0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:38.640
<v Speaker 9>So you know, we want to be really careful when

0:24:38.640 --> 0:24:40.959
<v Speaker 9>we do this reporting. We don't want to put one

0:24:41.000 --> 0:24:43.200
<v Speaker 9>in one together and get three right. We don't want

0:24:43.240 --> 0:24:46.040
<v Speaker 9>to overdescribe, and we don't want to underdescribe. We don't

0:24:46.040 --> 0:24:49.320
<v Speaker 9>want to undersell it. But absolutely it's fair to say

0:24:49.480 --> 0:24:56.800
<v Speaker 9>that Black paid a lot of money to one of

0:24:56.840 --> 0:25:01.280
<v Speaker 9>the women who I guess were one of the two

0:25:01.320 --> 0:25:02.320
<v Speaker 9>women that I described earlier.

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:02.680
<v Speaker 10>Yeah.

0:25:03.680 --> 0:25:06.119
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think, like all of this reporting that that

0:25:06.280 --> 0:25:08.560
<v Speaker 3>you are doing and the team are doing, it's just

0:25:08.840 --> 0:25:12.480
<v Speaker 3>the tentacles of these stories and they're not just very

0:25:12.520 --> 0:25:15.320
<v Speaker 3>simple line like, there's just so much to it, you

0:25:15.359 --> 0:25:17.959
<v Speaker 3>know what I mean, like each each aspect of it.

0:25:18.000 --> 0:25:20.080
<v Speaker 3>And he's right, we want to be very careful. But

0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:23.719
<v Speaker 3>I think what increasingly we're getting this fuller picture and impact,

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:27.880
<v Speaker 3>if you will, of what we simply put as Jeffrey Epstein, No,

0:25:28.040 --> 0:25:29.040
<v Speaker 3>I hear you so much more.

0:25:29.080 --> 0:25:30.679
<v Speaker 6>I mean, speaking reporter to reporter.

0:25:30.800 --> 0:25:33.800
<v Speaker 9>I think that sometimes when I'm feeling overwhelmed at work

0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:38.320
<v Speaker 9>and story subjects seem too hard or too convoluted, or

0:25:38.359 --> 0:25:42.119
<v Speaker 9>too obscure to opaque, I find that it's sort of

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:46.040
<v Speaker 9>it helps to remember that It's like, you know, honestly,

0:25:46.200 --> 0:25:48.520
<v Speaker 9>they're cliches, but I'm gonna use them anyway. It's like

0:25:48.680 --> 0:25:49.480
<v Speaker 9>follow the money.

0:25:49.600 --> 0:25:51.679
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, you know, what are we doing here?

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:55.119
<v Speaker 9>We're follow the money. You know, we're chronicling capitalism. You know,

0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:59.080
<v Speaker 9>capitalism is interesting and it's important, and I think one

0:25:59.200 --> 0:26:00.120
<v Speaker 9>way to describe.

0:25:59.800 --> 0:26:02.440
<v Speaker 6>That files is that they allow us to chronicle capitalism.

0:26:02.440 --> 0:26:04.920
<v Speaker 3>Incredible zoeys Max Abelson, Thank you so much.

0:26:05.359 --> 0:26:09.359
<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us

0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:12.879
<v Speaker 7>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

0:26:12.920 --> 0:26:16.360
<v Speaker 7>on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:26:16.640 --> 0:26:19.520
<v Speaker 7>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:26:20.400 --> 0:26:22.440
<v Speaker 2>I want to bring in Bill Smith, founder, chairman and

0:26:22.520 --> 0:26:25.360
<v Speaker 2>CIO of Smeed Capital Management. The firm has about five

0:26:25.400 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 2>point six billion dollars in assets under management. He joins

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:29.639
<v Speaker 2>us from Phoenix, Arizona.

0:26:30.000 --> 0:26:32.679
<v Speaker 3>Bill, Wait, are you in your own radio studio?

0:26:33.880 --> 0:26:34.880
<v Speaker 2>They do podcasts there.

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:35.920
<v Speaker 3>That's pretty impressive.

0:26:36.920 --> 0:26:38.959
<v Speaker 10>It's the podcast room.

0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:43.240
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Bill, the AI enthusiasm of today. You've talked about

0:26:43.240 --> 0:26:46.600
<v Speaker 2>this with us in the past, but not not recently,

0:26:46.680 --> 0:26:48.359
<v Speaker 2>not in a few months, and it's kind of gotten

0:26:48.400 --> 0:26:53.240
<v Speaker 2>even more enthusiastic. Since then you argue this resembles past manias,

0:26:53.320 --> 0:26:55.400
<v Speaker 2>like the late nineteen nineties. I'm going to utter those

0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:58.119
<v Speaker 2>words in a question to you, isn't this time different?

0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:05.119
<v Speaker 10>Well, it's always different. That's the problem with manias is

0:27:05.280 --> 0:27:09.919
<v Speaker 10>they're all different, but they rhyme. So what put me

0:27:10.040 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 10>over the edge on this one was when they named

0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:21.160
<v Speaker 10>the nine people that created AI, two ladies and seven men,

0:27:21.400 --> 0:27:24.560
<v Speaker 10>and they put them on the steel beam, imitating the

0:27:24.600 --> 0:27:28.000
<v Speaker 10>Time magazine cover from nineteen thirty two where the construction

0:27:28.119 --> 0:27:31.560
<v Speaker 10>workers are sitting on the steel beam eating lunch with

0:27:32.720 --> 0:27:36.199
<v Speaker 10>way off the ground in Manhattan, and they put the

0:27:36.280 --> 0:27:38.600
<v Speaker 10>nine of them superimposed on there. And so I said

0:27:38.640 --> 0:27:44.240
<v Speaker 10>to my analyst team, I said, gee, let's look back

0:27:44.280 --> 0:27:46.719
<v Speaker 10>over the last twenty five years and ask the question,

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:50.840
<v Speaker 10>how many times as a stock market or business person

0:27:51.200 --> 0:27:53.679
<v Speaker 10>been the Time Person of the Year, And in the

0:27:53.760 --> 0:27:57.680
<v Speaker 10>twenty five times, it's only happened four times in the

0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:00.040
<v Speaker 10>last twenty five years, and one of those was a

0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:07.199
<v Speaker 10>negative reason. The accountants that disclosed the en run and

0:28:07.320 --> 0:28:10.280
<v Speaker 10>WORLDCLM debacle were named the Time Person of the Year

0:28:10.320 --> 0:28:12.919
<v Speaker 10>at the end of twenty one, but one of the

0:28:12.960 --> 0:28:17.080
<v Speaker 10>other three was Jeff Bezos was named the Time Person

0:28:17.119 --> 0:28:19.720
<v Speaker 10>of the Year December twenty seventh, nineteen ninety nine, and

0:28:19.760 --> 0:28:24.760
<v Speaker 10>then the AI people, well, Jeff bezos stock fell ninety

0:28:24.840 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 10>five percent over the next eighteen months from that magazine cover. Okay,

0:28:29.600 --> 0:28:33.880
<v Speaker 10>but even though it ended up being an incredibly successful company,

0:28:35.000 --> 0:28:38.000
<v Speaker 10>I mean, people got destroyed. I mean, no one makes it.

0:28:38.400 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 10>No one makes it back from a ninety five percent

0:28:40.560 --> 0:28:44.120
<v Speaker 10>loss unless they're part of the company like Jeff was.

0:28:44.480 --> 0:28:48.520
<v Speaker 10>So so it was kind of like the ultimate timing

0:28:48.600 --> 0:28:53.280
<v Speaker 10>indicator that time. The front cover of a magazine in

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:55.320
<v Speaker 10>the investment business is a curse.

0:28:56.600 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 2>And to be fair, you did mention, you know, the

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:01.600
<v Speaker 2>success of Amazon. It's over two trillion dollar company. Now

0:29:01.720 --> 0:29:04.360
<v Speaker 2>Jeff Bezos is the fifth wealthiest person in the world,

0:29:04.440 --> 0:29:06.200
<v Speaker 2>with a fortune of over two hundred and twenty five

0:29:06.800 --> 0:29:10.040
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars. Are you saying that? Are you saying that,

0:29:10.120 --> 0:29:11.960
<v Speaker 2>or are you saying that at this point we are

0:29:11.960 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 2>going to see some sort of correction like we saw

0:29:14.160 --> 0:29:15.400
<v Speaker 2>a post nineteen ninety nine.

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:16.640
<v Speaker 6>Yes.

0:29:16.920 --> 0:29:20.640
<v Speaker 10>In other words, regardless of how much you think of

0:29:20.760 --> 0:29:25.440
<v Speaker 10>any of the companies involved, first of all, the next

0:29:25.760 --> 0:29:28.600
<v Speaker 10>two to three years are not likely to be good

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:33.560
<v Speaker 10>for their stocks because we had reached a pinnacle. That

0:29:33.760 --> 0:29:37.440
<v Speaker 10>also can be measured in other markers. The other two

0:29:37.480 --> 0:29:41.800
<v Speaker 10>markers we've used is Buffett wrote in eight at the

0:29:41.840 --> 0:29:45.760
<v Speaker 10>bottom by American, I am because the stock market was

0:29:45.800 --> 0:29:48.760
<v Speaker 10>eighty percent of the GDP, and the stock market is

0:29:49.040 --> 0:29:51.840
<v Speaker 10>two hundred and twenty percent of the GDP. And if

0:29:51.880 --> 0:29:53.840
<v Speaker 10>you if you can listen real closely, you can hear

0:29:53.880 --> 0:29:59.200
<v Speaker 10>Buffett whispering, hold a lot of cash. I am okay.

0:30:00.000 --> 0:30:04.520
<v Speaker 10>So that's the second marker is that that's at a

0:30:04.560 --> 0:30:10.240
<v Speaker 10>reverse right now. The GDP to stock market marker is

0:30:10.320 --> 0:30:13.360
<v Speaker 10>way off. And then lastly, we took a look at

0:30:14.360 --> 0:30:19.080
<v Speaker 10>all the forty year lookbacks since nineteen thirty nine, and

0:30:19.600 --> 0:30:22.720
<v Speaker 10>this at the end of December was the best forty

0:30:22.800 --> 0:30:26.400
<v Speaker 10>year return in the S ANDP on appreciation nine percent

0:30:26.520 --> 0:30:31.440
<v Speaker 10>compounded appreciation going back forty years, and the second, third

0:30:31.440 --> 0:30:34.560
<v Speaker 10>and fourth place finishers ten years later. The S and

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 10>P was lower all three times. In other words, you

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:43.520
<v Speaker 10>lost money in capital appreciation over the course of the

0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:46.920
<v Speaker 10>next ten years all three times the market was this good.

0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:50.400
<v Speaker 3>So a couple of things I just want to listen

0:30:50.440 --> 0:30:53.400
<v Speaker 3>to you, Bill, like in terms of Amazon, like everybody

0:30:53.440 --> 0:30:55.960
<v Speaker 3>always says, invest for the long term. So have you

0:30:56.000 --> 0:30:58.240
<v Speaker 3>invested for the long term in Amazon even through those

0:30:58.320 --> 0:31:01.280
<v Speaker 3>years as it was investing in holding out you know,

0:31:01.440 --> 0:31:04.720
<v Speaker 3>longer term, it seems like it's turned out to be

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:08.200
<v Speaker 3>a pretty good investment. When do you know, like AI,

0:31:08.400 --> 0:31:11.400
<v Speaker 3>Nobody says we really know. We just talked about Mary

0:31:11.480 --> 0:31:13.680
<v Speaker 3>Daily of the San Francisco Fed trying to talk about

0:31:13.720 --> 0:31:17.320
<v Speaker 3>AI and the economy, and like everybody who comes on says,

0:31:17.320 --> 0:31:20.480
<v Speaker 3>we just don't really know the impact and who ultimately

0:31:20.520 --> 0:31:24.600
<v Speaker 3>will be winners and losers. So do you just not

0:31:24.760 --> 0:31:27.320
<v Speaker 3>make the bets now? Or can you assume that the

0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:29.320
<v Speaker 3>bigger players are going to be the ones that are

0:31:29.360 --> 0:31:32.040
<v Speaker 3>the most successful because they have the deepest pockets. Even

0:31:32.040 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 3>though you look at a company like Amazon, which is

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:38.800
<v Speaker 3>about to go what negative in terms of free cash

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:41.680
<v Speaker 3>flow for the first time or not for the first time,

0:31:41.720 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 3>but it's something that we haven't seen with a name

0:31:44.160 --> 0:31:45.480
<v Speaker 3>like Amazon in a long time.

0:31:46.360 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 10>Well, we just looked at a chart today. Over the

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 10>last five years, Amazon has underperformed the S and P

0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:57.360
<v Speaker 10>five hundred for just as one example. You picked on

0:31:57.360 --> 0:32:00.840
<v Speaker 10>one example, So think of it like this.

0:32:03.640 --> 0:32:04.840
<v Speaker 3>Just got above their seconds.

0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:06.560
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, go ahead, the two.

0:32:06.360 --> 0:32:11.600
<v Speaker 10>Sides of investing ignorance avoidance, okay, and then stock selection

0:32:13.000 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 10>ignorance avoidance means that for you to squeeze blood out

0:32:18.080 --> 0:32:20.800
<v Speaker 10>of a turn up that has been as strong as

0:32:20.880 --> 0:32:24.280
<v Speaker 10>tech has been in the last ten years, you're asking

0:32:24.360 --> 0:32:29.280
<v Speaker 10>for all recorded history to be reversed, stock market history,

0:32:29.400 --> 0:32:32.160
<v Speaker 10>all of it needs to be reversed. It means tulip

0:32:32.160 --> 0:32:34.280
<v Speaker 10>bulbs are going to keep coming up. It means the

0:32:34.320 --> 0:32:36.640
<v Speaker 10>dot com bubble is going to go on forever. That's

0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:39.920
<v Speaker 10>the problem. The problem isn't that there's not meritorious companies.

0:32:40.120 --> 0:32:43.200
<v Speaker 10>There are meritorious companies and it is going to change

0:32:43.240 --> 0:32:46.240
<v Speaker 10>our life. The problem is the investment rewards have already

0:32:46.280 --> 0:32:48.880
<v Speaker 10>been taken for probably the next five years.

0:32:49.200 --> 0:32:52.320
<v Speaker 3>All Right, interesting stuff, Bill, so appreciate it. Bill Smeeth,

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:55.480
<v Speaker 3>Chief investment Officer at SMED Capital Management, joining us.

0:32:56.480 --> 0:33:01.840
<v Speaker 7>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:33:01.960 --> 0:33:05.720
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0:33:05.720 --> 0:33:09.760
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0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:13.680
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0:33:13.920 --> 0:33:16.680
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0:33:16.920 --> 0:33:19.080
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