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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now for an extended conversation like we should

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Speaker 2: have for three hours is way Lee of black Rock.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where to begin, so Wayley, let's start.

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Speaker 2: Since we're on a Pacific rim with Ross Matheson. You

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Speaker 2: were acclaimed in your China from mathematic skills as a kid.

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Speaker 2: You're a student of the Pacific Rim. I don't buy

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Speaker 2: the idea of doom and gloom on China. There's a

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Speaker 2: resiliency there. Do you detect a political an American phrase,

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Speaker 2: come to Jesus where they're going to be able to

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Speaker 2: assert five percent growth?

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Speaker 3: As a mathematician, one number that jumped out to me

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Speaker 3: just yesterday is ten year yields in China just all

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Speaker 3: time low below two percent. That is really remarkable. That

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Speaker 3: speaks to markets not feeling confident about China exiting deflationary environment.

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Speaker 3: That speaks to markets being quite worried about jeffentification of China.

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Speaker 3: So structurally there are concerns around Chinese growth.

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Speaker 2: Is there an embedded deflationary vector right now? I mean,

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Speaker 2: is it Clement Atlee nineteen thirties, Great Britain. Is it

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Speaker 2: a deflation that we saw with Japan over the years.

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Speaker 3: Well, if we look at the consumers in China, they

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Speaker 3: are still quite muted and really quite depressed. There has

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Speaker 3: been effort to stimulate consumption, but that remains below trend

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Speaker 3: coming out of the pandemic and looking ahead well talking

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Speaker 3: about environment where exports could also come under pressure. So

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Speaker 3: this is why we're less positive over the longer term

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Speaker 3: around where China is heading towards. We're expecting three percent

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Speaker 3: growth by the end of the ROWS, which is quite

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Speaker 3: a bit lower than five percent for this year, and

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Speaker 3: maybe they're looking at five percent for next year. We're

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Speaker 3: not expecting We're not expecting that given the uncertainty around it.

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Speaker 3: But in a very very near term valuation remains quite attractive.

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Speaker 3: We have events coming up around the corner, the Central

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Speaker 3: Economic Working Conference and the National People's Congresses Wow, so

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Speaker 3: all of that could provide kind of near term stimulous hopes,

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Speaker 3: but really the longer term story is really not that encouraging.

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Speaker 4: I would say, is China is the government of China?

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Speaker 4: Are they to what extent are they concerned about really,

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Speaker 4: I guess isolating themselves from the rest of the world.

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Speaker 4: Did they see that as a material risk? Because that

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Speaker 4: seems to be how it's drifting.

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Speaker 3: I think geopolitical fragmentation has been happening, has been deepening,

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Speaker 3: and is expected to continue going forward. So that's part

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Speaker 3: of a kind of China isolating or building spheres of

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Speaker 3: influence around themselves. But it's also generally the spheres of

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Speaker 3: influence between US and China moving further apart, which is

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Speaker 3: why geopolitical fragmentation is a key megaphones that Blackrock has identified.

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Speaker 3: There is inflationary and that is why we are positioning

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Speaker 3: our strategic portfolios for high for longer.

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Speaker 5: I want you to come back.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with this question, when should kids start learning calculus?

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, in America used to be learned

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Speaker 2: at twenty two and then I was twenty. Now we

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Speaker 2: got kids freshman year in high school having this you know,

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Speaker 2: the product rule crammed down their throat.

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Speaker 5: When should kids start learning calculus? Way?

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Speaker 3: I honestly do not remember when I started learning calculus

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Speaker 3: maybe in junior high school.

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Speaker 5: Junior high school. That's sick.

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Speaker 6: I was good in school.

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Speaker 2: Did you drop that in your interview with black Rock?

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Speaker 5: Listen?

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Speaker 7: Seventh grade?

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Speaker 3: But the point is I don't use calculus these days

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Speaker 3: in my day to day job. So what exactly is

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Speaker 3: going to future proof the future generation in terms of

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Speaker 3: the things that they learn in school? Right? As AI

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Speaker 3: changes the nature of Johnson.

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Speaker 2: She gets right in the AI chat, I give it

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Speaker 2: up Fallsweti and Tom Kenyan.

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Speaker 5: Where there's Wayley of Blackrock to say she's.

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Speaker 2: Chief, a global chief investment strategist, barely describe your duties.

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Speaker 5: Look for her on LinkedIn.

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Speaker 2: I think of Urine, Timerate, Fidelity, and Wayy at black Rock,

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Speaker 2: like not just you know, hey, this is you know

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Speaker 2: what I had for lunch, but like really serious investment stuff.

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Speaker 2: Here's a drill. I'm calling it the great bull market

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Speaker 2: or this great bull market we're in. There's off the

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Speaker 2: December eighteen low up one hundred and forty five percent, SPX,

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Speaker 2: off the October twenty two low up whatever it is,

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Speaker 2: forty sixty percent. The risk of extrapolation now is front

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Speaker 2: and center.

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Speaker 5: How do you handle the emotion that we want.

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Speaker 2: To extrapolate this good equity news with the reality of

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Speaker 2: taking measured risk.

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Speaker 3: I think the big picture right now is not one

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Speaker 3: of mean revert. It's one of transformation. We're talking about

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Speaker 3: in an environment where actually the key focus ought to be

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Speaker 3: where the longer term trend is heading towards, rather than

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Speaker 3: where the fluctuations are around what used to be a

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Speaker 3: stable longer term trend. And that is also why we

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Speaker 3: see ten year yields being so much more sensitive to

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Speaker 3: months to months data releases, because we're now it is

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Speaker 3: almost unprecedented environment where longer term trend is actually shifting.

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Speaker 3: That means mean revert does not quite apply when we're

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Speaker 3: talking about transformation and moving targets. And that also means

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Speaker 3: if we think something is expensive, they can get more expensive.

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Speaker 3: If we think something is concentrated, they can get more

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Speaker 3: concentrated if there are good reasons for that to continue.

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Speaker 2: How did you respond to what David Costin did over

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Speaker 2: at Gulben Sachs modeling out since we've come so far

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Speaker 2: so fast, our central tendency is a low single digit outcome.

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Speaker 2: Heated complaints from the academic math community on how they

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Speaker 2: went about that study, Are you that cautious on where

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Speaker 2: the terminal value is of equity prices?

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Speaker 3: We actually took an inspiration from that analysis to try

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Speaker 3: to understand if the measure of concentration, which is to

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Speaker 3: look at the market cup of the biggest the company

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Speaker 3: versus the seventy fifth percent hel and look at that

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Speaker 3: racial right by that measure, US Aquady market is close

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Speaker 3: to the most concentrated in almost one hundred years, and

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Speaker 3: we try to understand, okay, that concentration, does it have

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Speaker 3: significant varying on subsequent market return over twelve months, over

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Speaker 3: ten years. The verdict of the analysis inspired by the

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Speaker 3: by the by the research a piece of research that

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Speaker 3: you're referring to, is that over the very near term horizon,

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Speaker 3: let's say investing for twenty twenty five, concentration doesn't have

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Speaker 3: significant bearing. And over the longer term, in a mean

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Speaker 3: revert environment, then it has significant baring. But we're not

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Speaker 3: in the mean revert environment. So we continue to think

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Speaker 3: that Erniest can can come through.

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Speaker 6: For next year.

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Speaker 3: We're looking at high single digit return expectation, and there

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Speaker 3: is reason in the context of US exceptionalism for US

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Speaker 3: to lean more into US equities, which is what we're

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Speaker 3: doing for this outlook.

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Speaker 2: Wait, I should buy my first share.

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Speaker 4: I think you should judge to this market book.

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Speaker 3: We should keep you one hundred shares exactly, two or

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Speaker 3: three shares.

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Speaker 7: Of that exactly.

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Speaker 4: Welly, So it's been a month since the US presidential election.

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Speaker 4: We now know we have a Republican in the White House,

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Speaker 4: and we now have a pretty republic controlled Congress, orthough

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Speaker 4: some you know, very tightly controlled. Did that change the

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Speaker 4: outlook for you folks at black Rock did when you

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Speaker 4: woke up from the election the next day, did you

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Speaker 4: materially change your outlook on asset allocation, stocks, bonds, US,

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Speaker 4: non US Did it change your outlook?

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Speaker 3: I think in equities America first policies would support US

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Speaker 3: at the expense of potentially global equities. We actually use

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Speaker 3: UK equity allocation to fund the further upgrade of you

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Speaker 3: as equities. This is what we did for this outlook.

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Speaker 3: But in government bonds, actually the reverse is true. Given

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Speaker 3: the fiscal trajectory that we now expect from well from

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Speaker 3: the Trump administration, but also specifically in the in the US,

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Speaker 3: we think that there is room for term premiere to

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Speaker 3: come back even more in US government bonds, which is

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Speaker 3: why we prefer likes of guilts over US long duration.

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Speaker 3: So there is a different reader cross in risk assets

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Speaker 3: and government bonds with the policy is that we now expect.

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Speaker 3: The last thing I would say credit is an interesting one.

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Speaker 3: Spread USIG spread is the titles since the early two thousand,

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Speaker 3: but that in part reflects number one, reasonably good fundamentals

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Speaker 3: of credit and corporates and number two worsening indebtedness for

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Speaker 3: US government. Right, so when we look at it from

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Speaker 3: a whole income total yield perspective, quality income is still

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Speaker 3: a very interesting theme that we want to play.

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Speaker 4: Are you concerned about here in the United States continued deficits,

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Speaker 4: continued growth in the debt. There doesn't seem to be

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Speaker 4: any political will to address that at all, and it

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Speaker 4: may just be just don't worry about it.

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Speaker 6: How do you guys think about that?

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Speaker 3: I would say two things. First, it is not a

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Speaker 3: US specific phenomenon, and I think what's happening in France

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Speaker 3: really shows that this is really across the boat. A

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Speaker 3: higher indebtedness is really a phenomenon across the boat. Number two,

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Speaker 3: we are risks on for now, we're dialing up risk

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Speaker 3: taking but great reprise think is the key sign post

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Speaker 3: that we're monitoring as we look to dynamically dow up

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Speaker 3: and dow down risk taking through the course of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty five. So that's definitely something that we pay a

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Speaker 3: lot of attention to. Related to Tariff's announcement as well,

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Speaker 3: because higher tariffs, higher inflation, higher rate expectations, so all

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Speaker 3: of that is really under risk monitor as we keep

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Speaker 3: risk for now.

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Speaker 2: One final question, you were sitting in your classes, I

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Speaker 2: believe at Cambridge, and you ran through productivity. The great

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Speaker 2: myst call this year has been American economic growth resilient

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Speaker 2: nominal GDP. Everybody got the growthiness wrong. What portion of

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Speaker 2: productivity is the why we're achieving right now?

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Speaker 3: I think US growth has been very resilient because this

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Speaker 3: is not your typical cycle. I think there are some

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Speaker 3: force alarms, especially during some looking at the sign rule,

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Speaker 3: the typical recession signal not working because we are in

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Speaker 3: this environment of transformation rather than standard cycle. Right. There

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Speaker 3: are multiple disconnects that points to this is not your

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Speaker 3: typical business cycle. We're looking at an environment where the

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Speaker 3: fat is cutting rates when financial conditions are very very easy.

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Speaker 3: Those traditional recession signals not working. So all of that

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Speaker 3: means that we cannot use the old playbook to understand

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Speaker 3: where economy is, but also to kind of think about

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Speaker 3: us our location cover.

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Speaker 2: So at the margin, can you buy MEG seven if

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Speaker 2: we're not mean reverting and if we're going to a

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Speaker 2: new way lead terminal value? Can you add the mag

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Speaker 2: seven This morning.

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Speaker 3: Mag seven multiple is thirty times, and at the beginning

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Speaker 3: of twenty twenty two it was thirty five times. At

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Speaker 3: the inception of chat GBT late twenty twenty two it

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Speaker 3: was twenty five times. It is expensive, but it's not

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Speaker 3: extremely expensive. There are good reasons earnings momentum that supports

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Speaker 3: those valuations. You know, like me revert. If we're talking

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Speaker 3: about an index that has become more growthy in nature

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Speaker 3: over time, then that the meme needs to reflect the

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Speaker 3: more growthy nature of the of the benchmark. So we

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Speaker 3: continue to like Max seven. But we have broughtn out

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Speaker 3: how we play the AI theme because we expect that

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Speaker 3: to have broader read across to how economy. So public market,

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Speaker 3: private market, we are building the transformation, we're financing the transformation.

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Speaker 5: Really, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: With black record, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am.

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Speaker 1: Easter Listen on Apple car Play and and brot Outo

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Speaker 1: with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Return to the Litmus paper of the global system. We

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Speaker 2: welcome out of you on YouTube on your communite quickly

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Speaker 2: with George Sarahs of Deutsche Bank. George, whither the dollar

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Speaker 2: in your view for not like the year end outlook,

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Speaker 2: but the bet and the dollar. Is it a resilient

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Speaker 2: dollar and can you model out dollar strength?

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Speaker 8: Hi, morning, Tom.

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Speaker 9: So it really all is about the policy mix over

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Speaker 9: the next few years. That's how I think we think

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Speaker 9: about it, the combination of fiscal and trade policy. And

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Speaker 9: the bottom line is, if you think about what is priced,

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Speaker 9: you're still not pricing an aggressive mix of physcal easing

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Speaker 9: or protection is trade, which is what President Trump communicated

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Speaker 9: in the election campaign. So we still see the market

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Speaker 9: as pricing on a scale of one to ten, roughly

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Speaker 9: a three out of ten. And therefore there is more

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Speaker 9: potential I think for the dollar to strengthen over the

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Speaker 9: next few months as we price more in.

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Speaker 8: But over the.

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Speaker 9: Medium term it really boils down to whether the rest

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Speaker 9: of the world can solved some of these structural issues

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Speaker 9: which are weighing on both China and Europe. And the

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Speaker 9: longer these things are delayed, I think the stronger.

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Speaker 8: The dollar will remain over the longer term.

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Speaker 4: George, we were just trying to get getting update from

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Speaker 4: from one of our reporters in Paris about the uncertainty there,

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Speaker 4: the political uncertainty in France. I'm looking at the euro

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Speaker 4: here as a proxy. We're now below one spot zero five.

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Speaker 4: It is parody something that you think is possible for

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Speaker 4: the Euro with the dollar.

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Speaker 8: That's our forecast for the Euro next year.

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Speaker 9: I think depending on what happens both out of Europe

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Speaker 9: and the US, there are even scenarios where we could

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Speaker 9: go below parity towards ninety five for example. I would

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Speaker 9: say the key variable at the moment that is impacting

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Speaker 9: the market and the economy is uncertainty.

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Speaker 8: Especially in Europe.

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Speaker 9: There are very high levels of uncertainty across the board,

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Speaker 9: both in terms of the political outcomes, and we're seeing

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Speaker 9: the negotiations around the budget in France, around global foreign policy,

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Speaker 9: and the difficulty with uncertainties, it's very hard to model

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Speaker 9: the economic impact but it's very clear that this is

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Speaker 9: showing up, and I think this is one reason why

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Speaker 9: the European economy is underperforming.

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Speaker 8: For example, is.

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Speaker 4: There a credible barecase for the US dollar. I'm hard

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Speaker 4: pressed to find one, So.

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Speaker 8: I would say there is.

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Speaker 9: There always has to be, because if there's no way

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Speaker 9: for something to go down, it must mean we're not

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Speaker 9: doing our job properly in terms of thinking about the scenarios.

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Speaker 8: So here are the two downside risks for the dollar.

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Speaker 8: The first one.

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Speaker 9: Would be if we are wrong about the fiscal policy

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Speaker 9: outlook and we get a material fiscal tightening in the US,

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Speaker 9: whether that is due to an inability to agree to something,

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Speaker 9: although presumably that probability is low given you've had a

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Speaker 9: red sweet but if you have fiscal tightening, that would

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Speaker 9: lead to slower growth and the more duble shredd and

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Speaker 9: I think the dollar would go down.

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Speaker 8: That would be one scenario.

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Speaker 9: The second would be what I would call institutional instability,

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Speaker 9: a challenge of the stability of the institutions in the US.

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Speaker 9: You would see that, for example, if FED independence was challenged.

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Speaker 9: That would be one that would certainly hit the dollar.

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Speaker 9: And I think one reason the dollar is actually strong

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Speaker 9: is that the market is seeing institutional virginity outside of

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Speaker 9: the US, seeing it in France, seeing it in Korea.

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Speaker 9: And I think that's a key driver over recent resive dollars.

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Speaker 2: Strand you tell me about the opportunity in Canada. They

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Speaker 2: got a president who's unloved, they got the teriff.

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Speaker 5: Wherees George, You're writing about Canada?

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Speaker 2: How do you profit from week Canada? Now? Do you

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Speaker 2: go Looney or do you go Canada? Remind me what's

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Speaker 2: the take that Deutsche Bank has there.

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Speaker 9: I think Canada is going to be an interesting test

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Speaker 9: case as far as President Trump's tariff policies go. So

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Speaker 9: we did see Canada being lumped together with Mexico in

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Speaker 9: the post in a social media post president Trump mate

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Speaker 9: just a few days ago, highlighting immigration and the fentanyl epidemic. Now,

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Speaker 9: the interesting thing is when you compare the flow of

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Speaker 9: immigration and fentanyl in Canada to the US and Mexico

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Speaker 9: to the US, the orders of magnitude are immensely different.

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Speaker 8: Now, that would.

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Speaker 9: Suggest the odds of an aggressive tariff policy towards Canada

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Speaker 9: are quite low. The market is indeed pricing that, and

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Speaker 9: that is our assumption, which is why we have this

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Speaker 9: view that Canada should be outperforming currencies such as the

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Speaker 9: Europe for example. But let's see. I think if come

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Speaker 9: January twentieth and there's no tariffs on Canada, we'll be fine.

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Speaker 8: But there is still a very high degree of uncertainty

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Speaker 8: on that front as well.

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Speaker 2: George, too short a conversation, George servellos at Deutsche Bank.

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Speaker 2: We need a longer conversation, soonest here is with Deutsche

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Speaker 2: Bank and foreign exchange of civilies.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Bohen Haynes in Florida has all sorts of abilities, and

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Speaker 2: one of them is a more conservative path.

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Speaker 5: Joining us this morning is Jay Bowen here, too short

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Speaker 5: a visit.

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Speaker 2: You are basically not taking in the alternative investment kool aid.

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Speaker 2: To me, this is a story for next year. Where's

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Speaker 2: private equity? Where's private credit going to be? Twenty four

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Speaker 2: months thirty six months from now?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, with our approach. It's somewhat we say that we're

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Speaker 7: unconventionally conventional. With our largest client, the Tampa Fire Police Fund.

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Speaker 7: We just start our fifty first year. We've never owned

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Speaker 7: private equity, private or the latest whip, so you.

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Speaker 5: Got a fifty position in MEG seven.

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Speaker 7: Now I will say this, which is important. One of

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Speaker 7: our largest holdings and we decided this along several years ago.

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Speaker 7: You can play these markets in the public markets. One

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Speaker 7: of our largest holdings is Blacksman, which is the as

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Speaker 7: you know, the largest private equity firm in the world,

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Speaker 7: so we can we can play these markets in a

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Speaker 7: very efficient liquid way, including real estate, also without having

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Speaker 7: to go into the more risky corners of those areas.

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Speaker 4: Tommy's you can probably tell from Jay's accent University of

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Speaker 4: North Carolina at Chapel.

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Speaker 5: Hill that this is Merry Christmas.

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Speaker 4: Pool seems another Carolina guy coverman in here. Oh boy, Jay,

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Speaker 4: talk to us about your work with the Tampa Firefighters

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Speaker 4: and police.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned you.

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Speaker 4: Manage your pensions fund for fifty years.

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Speaker 7: Correct. My father forged a relationship in nineteen seventy four.

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Speaker 7: The firm was founded in North Carolina. We were in

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Speaker 7: Atlanta forever now we're caught the COVID wave and then

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Speaker 7: the of the Jacksville area. And yeah, it's just a

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Speaker 7: very high quality, long term approach and it's proven to

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Speaker 7: be The model has proven to be quite successful. And

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Speaker 7: every year that goes by, we're able to show another

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Speaker 7: set of twenty year rolling data, which they will do you.

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Speaker 2: That's short term right here. What are you doing on

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Speaker 2: a twenty year roll? Are you doing in a sixty

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Speaker 2: forty split? What is the pixie dust you're doing? Like

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Speaker 2: to beat USPX is at the goal.

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Speaker 7: We are certainly oriented towards equities in common stocks specifically,

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Speaker 7: typically we're allowed to invest sixty five percent of the

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Speaker 7: portfolio in common stocks on a cost basis, not on

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Speaker 7: a market value basis. So in a bull market that's

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Speaker 7: going to move up close to seventy seventy five maybe.

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Speaker 7: And the balance is that the bond side of the

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Speaker 7: portfolio is strictly for income instability.

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Speaker 5: We don't trade the bond. We gotta interrupt.

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Speaker 2: You're running to find benefit program for a public sector

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Speaker 2: pension fund and you're popping sixty five seventy seventy five equities.

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Speaker 7: Correct, And we've been the sole manager for fifty years

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Speaker 7: and according to all the public fund.

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Speaker 2: Got the number one performing define benefit program in the country.

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Speaker 7: That's what they say for one years through fifty years.

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Speaker 7: So if you believe the database, what.

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Speaker 2: Have you done since December of twenty eighteen? Our theme

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Speaker 2: to the end of the year. Here is this great

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Speaker 2: bull market. What are you up from Christmas Eve twenty eighteen?

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Speaker 2: Is you got that number in your head?

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Speaker 7: Don't I don't have that number in my head. I've

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Speaker 7: got the thirty I've got the thirty one separate twenty

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Speaker 7: year rolling increments, and I had that.

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Speaker 4: So what's what's it? What's a type of stock you

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Speaker 4: guys like to own?

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Speaker 8: Are you?

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Speaker 2: Do?

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Speaker 4: You have a technology bent here? You're owning corporate? Corporate's financials.

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Speaker 6: How do you guys do?

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Speaker 7: It's top down in thematic we're trying to get ahead

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Speaker 7: of these trends. Well currently one of our big trends

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Speaker 7: we like finding these we call them technology companies disguised

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Speaker 7: as industrial companies, companies like Eating and Corning and Teledigm.

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Speaker 7: You know, you might think, oh wow, these are somewhat honey.

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Speaker 7: Well they might be industrial, but they're very sophisticated from

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Speaker 7: a technology standpoint. They're providing, they're helping electrify and digitize

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Speaker 7: the industrial base. There's a lot of demand and massive

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Speaker 7: tailwinds in that area that we see going forward.

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Speaker 4: Do you guys have a value? Let me ask you

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Speaker 4: put it to this. What is your valuation crates here?

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Speaker 4: How do you think about valuation? Because you could look

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Speaker 4: at some of these names, whether they're Max seven, we're

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Speaker 4: just some other technology names and really have to have

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Speaker 4: some gumption here to buy some of these things.

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Speaker 6: How do you think about valuation?

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Speaker 5: Correct?

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Speaker 7: And that has really changed over the last particularly the

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Speaker 7: last fifteen years or so, where it's a much more

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Speaker 7: dynamic type of approach. We've always looked ahead. We're not

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Speaker 7: really that concerned with current earnings. With our long term approach.

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Speaker 7: We have the luxury and they've given us. The board

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Speaker 7: down there has given us the luxury of really looking out.

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Speaker 7: So a company that might look expensive on a current basis,

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Speaker 7: if we look out and feel like the tailwinds are

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Speaker 7: there and the trees are there, we're willing to pay

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Speaker 7: up a little.

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Speaker 5: Bit for it.

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Speaker 2: Tell me about Florida, I mean I make jokes about

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Speaker 2: It's not funny. Tampa's stadium was destroyed they're going to

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Speaker 2: play in the Yankee spring straining park. I guess they're

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Speaker 2: hurricanes in the Florida economy. Where is it all two

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Speaker 2: years from now?

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Speaker 7: For her?

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Speaker 5: I mean, are we done with?

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Speaker 2: Are we done building six thousand square foot houses.

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Speaker 5: On the water that get blown over?

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Speaker 7: I think that that trend is going to be curtailed

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Speaker 7: somewhat because of the insurance situation down there, which is

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Speaker 7: is changing as we as we speak. But it's still

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Speaker 7: a Look, it's still a high growth market state from

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Speaker 7: an economic policy standpoint. Is I think going to continue

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Speaker 7: to attract, but I think that the certainly it's going

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Speaker 7: to moderate.

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Speaker 5: Now you got to come back.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I can't tell you, folks how unusual this

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Speaker 2: conversation is with Jay Bowen, but I just want to know.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm certain every meal you've ever taken with

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Speaker 2: the Tampa Union has been at burn Steakhouse. Are you

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Speaker 2: eating in the bar or do you go into one

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Speaker 2: of the back rooms when you get to eat?

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Speaker 7: Because the wine list is in a phone book?

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Speaker 5: Have you been in? Then?

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Speaker 7: I get lost in that phone book and I never

443
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:17,239
Speaker 7: it's time to go.

444
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 2: Have they ever taken you downstairs to the wine cellar

445
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 2: of Burned Steakhouse, Tampa, Florida.

446
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, but they maybe put a blindfold only.

447
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 2: They took me down there once, paul It's like acres.

448
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 2: It's it's unreal.

449
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 5: I eat in the barn.

450
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 2: I try to eat right directly across the bar, and

451
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 2: I get better service there, I think. But it's great.

452
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: Is it written into the bow and Haynes agreement that

453
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 2: you only can dine at Burns Steakhouse in Tampa.

454
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 7: You've given me the idea of the day.

455
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 2: I think if Paula says, road trip to Tampa Bay

456
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 2: will talk to the firefighters. Jay Bowen, thank you so much,

457
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 2: and I really exceptional day.

458
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 1: Here for news, this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen

459
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 1: live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay

460
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can

461
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always

462
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal.

463
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 2: Our newspapers, it's a Lisa Mantale hour. She's not seen

464
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: Mawana too, either of I. What do you got, Lisa?

465
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 10: I know I definitely not this weekend. This let's see

466
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 10: where I want to start, Okay, so we'll start with

467
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 10: the Washington Post. They're talking about Starbucks and Neslie. They're

468
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 10: facing some scrutiny. This is because of labor practices over

469
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 10: in China. They're saying coffee farms in Starbucks, Nestlie's supply

470
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 10: chains and China they're not living up to ethical standards.

471
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 6: This is according to report by China Labor Watch.

472
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 10: They said they're using kids as workers, they're making workers

473
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 10: work excessive hours, different safety standards. So it's an investigation

474
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 10: that covered twenty six farms, but it really starts to

475
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 10: show how the challenges of these big companies are facing

476
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 10: monitoring labor costs, labor in China. Both companies do did

477
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 10: say that they pledged to investigate further, but it's just

478
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 10: something going on now that that they're starting to become

479
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 10: more aware of all mentions.

480
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 2: His driver, I had a driver this morning, Bentley in

481
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 2: the garage and and he said he's just back from Thailand,

482
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 2: and he says, do Americans understand those people are making twelve.

483
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 5: Dollars a day?

484
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: I mean the labor Steve Roach called it the labor arbitrage.

485
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 4: And so this is all price of coffee is up

486
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 4: fifty eight percent year to date. So it's been Yeah,

487
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 4: it's amazing. How does Starbucks manage they Well, what's your

488
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 4: daughter's lattelet?

489
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 6: He runs me about eight bucks now exactly for public coffee.

490
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 6: Well she gets the big one, of course, the ven.

491
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh Martini's cost eight bucks.

492
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 3: Exactly.

493
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 8: That's the world we live in.

494
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 6: I need a Martinia.

495
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 10: I would just say we got I might have to

496
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 10: ask Baltoonis about the next story. But meme coins, they

497
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 10: are having a moment financial time, saying you can thank

498
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 10: President Electrum Donald Trump for this. So these are tokens

499
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 10: that are representing online viral moments, things like the euthanized

500
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,639
Speaker 10: gray squirrel, like the pygmy hippopotamus, the cartoon dog. They've

501
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 10: all exploded in value since last month's US presidential election.

502
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 10: More established meme coins like doge coin, Tom's favorite, they've

503
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 10: outperformed Bitcoin over the past month. They've even been joined

504
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 10: by a group of new coins. But critics are saying,

505
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 10: you know what, meme coins nothing more than this entertaining asset. Yeah,

506
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 10: they say they're reminiscent of the craze from NFTs during.

507
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 6: The crypto crypto bubble of twenty twenty one.

508
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 4: But so traders I guess they're betting that the Trump

509
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 4: administration will usher in more crypto friendly attitudes and regulations

510
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 4: in Washington. I guess that's the fun metal play behind it,

511
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 4: the reason.

512
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 6: No other reason.

513
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 5: Comment, everyone knows.

514
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, so just those kids. You can have fun with that.

515
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 4: Speculat all you want.

516
00:27:58,960 --> 00:27:59,359
Speaker 3: Have fun.

517
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 6: Okay, we'll go to sports now.

518
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 10: Okay, Juan Soto, you know they've been, he's been having

519
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 10: talked with everyone. His agent is sick from the Yankees.

520
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 10: His agent is saying he's starting to eliminate teams from

521
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 10: those negotiations. Okay, all right, So who is he met?

522
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 10: He's met with the Yankees, right, the Mets, Los Angeles, Dodgers,

523
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 10: Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jo.

524
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 5: He just cut that ship.

525
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 6: That's where it is.

526
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: We'll give him Plymouth Rock.

527
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 5: Good morning ninety nine, Boston.

528
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,919
Speaker 2: Let's give one Soto Plymouth Rock showing the Red Sox.

529
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 5: What do you got?

530
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 6: What's the updated?

531
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 10: So his agent is just saying jan is a methodical thinker.

532
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 10: He hasn't said yet, but he rejected those who say

533
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 10: high spending teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are buying championships.

534
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 10: So he rejected that offer, but sodo, what's the history?

535
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 10: So he turned down four hundred and forty million dollars

536
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 10: fifteen year offer from Washington back in twenty twenty two

537
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 10: that moved him to the Nationals to trade him to

538
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 10: San Diego, which dealt him to the Yankees last December.

539
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 10: So he's looking for money, so who's going to give

540
00:28:59,320 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 10: it to him?

541
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 6: Will? But he started to eliminate some of those.

542
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 5: I think that's what it comes down here.

543
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,720
Speaker 2: There was a picture named Snell who reminds me Red

544
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 2: Sox fans of bruce Hurst from years ago were when

545
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: he shows up, he's the best picture in baseball. And

546
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 2: he Snell just joined the Dodgers.

547
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 6: Yep.

548
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 5: So for Snell and Soto to be back with the

549
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 5: Dodgers as sick, yep, it's gonna be Who's he? Do

550
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 5: we know he's eliminated?

551
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 6: No, he won't say, but he's starting to eliminate.

552
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 4: Oh boy, what I've here on sports Raiser, We'll here's

553
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 4: something next week and I'll.

554
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 6: Defer to ari on that he knows all that stuff.

555
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,719
Speaker 2: But okay, well, official surveillance team coverage, probably a remote

556
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: in Boston coming from Plymouth Rocket to give me get

557
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: to one soda.

558
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 5: What do you got?

559
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 6: All right? Last one?

560
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 10: You can now get a pizza and a wedding dress

561
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 10: delivered all in one.

562
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 6: The reason why David's.

563
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 10: Bridle teamed up with door Dash. So now door Dash

564
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 10: is delivering bridal dresses in under an hour if you

565
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 10: can buy it or not.

566
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 6: But the company really needs it. I mean, you think

567
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 6: about it. They filed for bankruptcy twice.

568
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 10: But what they thought They thought it would be big

569
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 10: because they did test runs with like accessories like necklaces

570
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 10: shape where they thought that would be the hot thing,

571
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 10: but they said, no, it's actually the dresses that women

572
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 10: are ordering, not just wedding dresses, but you know, you

573
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 10: have the prom dresses, you have, you know, the bride'smaid dresses,

574
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 10: all those kind of things. So now this is becoming,

575
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 10: I guess, the hot new thing.

576
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: So here's the demo. I think Lisa two thirds of

577
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 4: brides between the ages of twenty seven and twenty eight,

578
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 4: which is the key demographic for David's Bridle, used last

579
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 4: mile delivery service via apps on a regular basis.

580
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 6: So that makes sense.

581
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, that's shut.

582
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 4: That down in my household, you too quick? Yeah, that's

583
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 4: never I will never pay for that.

584
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 6: Well, I know they tried the door dash with the McDonald's.

585
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 6: Doesn't work either, because I'll dress.

586
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's something, all right.

587
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 6: It depends on the price of it.

588
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,080
Speaker 10: I don't know, but yeah, so that's something new retail

589
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 10: file door dash getting into that.

590
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 2: Soo the Lisa Matteo or Thank You So Much Newspapers

591
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: with Alisa Matteo.

592
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

593
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

594
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

595
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

596
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

597
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal