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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: If you're in for Joe Matthew Kaylee lines here on

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Speaker 2: this Monday, and we're hearing a lot about immigration in

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Speaker 2: the panel that just wrapped up. There have an opportunity

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Speaker 2: to talk a bit more about that now some other

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Speaker 2: major issues as well, with Michelle Lewon Grisham, the thirty

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Speaker 2: second governor of the state of New Mexico, who kind

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Speaker 2: of joined me here in Washingt d C. Let me

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Speaker 2: start with healthcare, and I imagine you being here in

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Speaker 2: Washington have it's an ear to the ground when it

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Speaker 2: comes to the conversations that are taking place on Capitol

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Speaker 2: Hill about proposed cuts to Medicaid, which I know is

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Speaker 2: crucially important to a lot of folks in New Mexico.

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Speaker 2: If that were to happen, and they're talking about cuts

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Speaker 2: of eight hundred billion, close to a trillion dollars, what

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Speaker 2: would it mean for folks.

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Speaker 3: Devastating. I mean, we're not talking enough about what it

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Speaker 3: really does. There's been a lot of present company excluded

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Speaker 3: platitudes about, oh, we're just trying to get at right

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Speaker 3: sizing a lot of these federal investments. More than four

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Speaker 3: hundred rural hospitals are already barely surviving. Forty six percent,

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Speaker 3: frankly of all rural hospitals barely make it under the

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Speaker 3: current system with Medicare Medicare veterans' payment investments in the

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Speaker 3: private market. You take out eight hundred and eighty billion

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Speaker 3: dollars those hospitals close. All of those outcomes, right, maternal health,

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Speaker 3: infant mortality, all the things that we need to do

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Speaker 3: better as a country all fall apart less access to

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Speaker 3: obstruct obstetrics. So in a state that's trying to build

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Speaker 3: healthcare access, this is bad, terrible, the worst. Two more

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Speaker 3: quick sayings. Every governor in the National Governor's Association signed

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Speaker 3: a resolution saying, you know, we'll negotiate with you individually

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Speaker 3: about what we think it's best for our states and medicaid,

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Speaker 3: and you can incentivize those negotiations, but don't just indiscriminately

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Speaker 3: cut funds. So every governor Bipartisan said, this is exactly

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Speaker 3: what our residents and our states don't want. And two,

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Speaker 3: you know what this really is like. It's like having

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Speaker 3: the federal firefighter folks come into your state, and I

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Speaker 3: would know a thing or two about that in a wildfire,

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Speaker 3: bringing flame throwers and wind machines. This is not helpful.

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Speaker 3: How about if Congress works on reducing healthcare costs, and

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Speaker 3: we could do that by restoring the ability to negotiate

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Speaker 3: on drug prices.

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Speaker 2: Do you find that what you're saying is getting through

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Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill you and other Democratic governors.

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Speaker 3: Well, clearly not, because what we are seeing so far

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Speaker 3: in the proposed resolution is that the only way to

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Speaker 3: get where they want to go and budget cuts is

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Speaker 3: to go after Medicaid indiscriminately. And frankly, they wouldn't have

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Speaker 3: to do that if they had a healthcare plan, and

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Speaker 3: Republicans in Congress have never had, as far as I know,

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Speaker 3: a healthcare plan, and I think America should be really disappointed,

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Speaker 3: and I think quite frankly they need to be weighing

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Speaker 3: in with their governors and their elected members of Congress.

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Speaker 3: Costs will go up, small businesses will not be able

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Speaker 3: to afford to provide coverage to their employees. No access

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Speaker 3: means you're out more sick days everything that really creates

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Speaker 3: more instability. This is what we're doing. And of course

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Speaker 3: healthcare is a huge employer. That means fewer people with jobs.

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Speaker 3: None of it makes sense to me.

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about immigration. Of course, you

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Speaker 2: preside over a border state, and we hear a lot

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Speaker 2: from the President about the successes he sees it in

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Speaker 2: terms of boosting security on the border. I'm curious how

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Speaker 2: that's reverberating across New Mexico. So if you look at

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Speaker 2: people who are here legally, for instance, they look at

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Speaker 2: the ice rates that are taking place, the degree to

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Speaker 2: which the kind of security.

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Speaker 4: Mechanism the un Ied States has been brought to bear here.

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Speaker 2: What's the effect of that had on kind of the

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Speaker 2: zeitgeist in the state among immigrants in New Mexico.

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Speaker 3: Well, there's a lot of fear and uncertainty in New Mexico,

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Speaker 3: and that even bore out many of the debates in

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Speaker 3: my just ended legislative session. It's our policy session. We've

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Speaker 3: got forty eight folks who were sort of the subject

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Speaker 3: of that national kind of coordinated set of raids by ice,

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Speaker 3: trying to utilize local police and even some border patrol

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Speaker 3: folks who shouldn't be in the interior. If you're looking

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Speaker 3: at border security, here's an idea. Have them at the border.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of angst New Mexicans. And I would

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Speaker 3: add my own direct opinion and voice here. My job

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Speaker 3: is to represent effectively in my state and also solve problems.

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Speaker 3: We agree that bad actors. Frankly, whether you're here from

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Speaker 3: here or not, we would welcome the federal government to

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Speaker 3: do more at drug inter addiction, to do more about

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Speaker 3: stopping guns, drugs, and human trafficking at the border, in

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Speaker 3: anywhere else. What doesn't help us at all is not

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Speaker 3: focusing on bad actors, but going after children and their

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Speaker 3: families indiscriminately at hospital, schools and at workplaces. That just

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Speaker 3: creates fear and anger and animosity and doesn't make our

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Speaker 3: country any safer, nor does it help us build an

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Speaker 3: economy that works for everyone. Here's what we should do.

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Speaker 3: How about after they fix healthcare with a real plan

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Speaker 3: that doesn't indiscriminately cut, medicate, maybe we should pass the

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Speaker 3: border bill.

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Speaker 2: On the issue of incentives and the incentive structures they're

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Speaker 2: being put in place here. Christynome, the Secretary Homeland Security,

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Speaker 2: just announced if a person self deports uses this government

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Speaker 2: app to self deport and it's confirmed by the country

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Speaker 2: to which they go, they'll get a thousand dollars.

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Speaker 4: Does stuff like that work.

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Speaker 2: I'm just curious if your sense of the dialogue again

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Speaker 2: around how this government is both incentivizing pushing people out

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Speaker 2: of the country.

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Speaker 3: Again. Look, I understand that work, and I worked for

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Speaker 3: governors and now I am one. Presidents said a pretty

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Speaker 3: grand target for deportations that I don't think we're based

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Speaker 3: in fact in any context, and you've got a cabinet

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Speaker 3: secretaries trying to meet that. I think it is a

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Speaker 3: ineffective and really gross tool to suggest that people were

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Speaker 3: just here to quickly make a buck and that there's

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Speaker 3: no real issue with asylum and refugee status and trying

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Speaker 3: to build a safer future for your family. And it's

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Speaker 3: pretty disrespectful. What we ought to be doing is stop

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Speaker 3: separating families. No one in America, I don't think, at

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Speaker 3: least wants to see another three year old in a

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Speaker 3: courtroom by themselves, or American children who are separated from

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Speaker 3: their because their parents are leaving or the opposite. They

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Speaker 3: are not going with their parents or parent and there's

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Speaker 3: very little information new Mexicans. I think, reflect what where

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Speaker 3: a lot of the country really is. One, if you're

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Speaker 3: a bad actor, help us. I don't want any bad actors.

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Speaker 3: I want no more human trafficking. I want no more

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Speaker 3: drugs moving through this country from anywhere China, Russia, Mexico,

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Speaker 3: anywhere at the border or in the mail, in a

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Speaker 3: truck or by plane or by boat. We don't want them.

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Speaker 5: Two.

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Speaker 3: I want us to leverage and coordinate our law enforcement

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Speaker 3: so that we make every community, including my state, safer.

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Speaker 3: And lastly, I want a better fair investment about immigration

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Speaker 3: policy so they can get visas on the front end

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Speaker 3: and that you can work here on the back end

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Speaker 3: and it's transparent and fair and meaningful. They have the

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Speaker 3: opportunity to do that. Why don't they do that instead?

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Speaker 3: I think that's when Americans are really in wanting that.

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Speaker 3: This is an administration I think that wants to politicize

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Speaker 3: this issue and try to divide America.

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Speaker 2: I have a unique opportunity to ask you what that

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Speaker 2: level of engagement is like with this administration. I think

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Speaker 2: a lot of us saw that moment in the White

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Speaker 2: House when your colleague Jenet Mills of Maine stood up

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Speaker 2: effectively to the President, and it was icy, and there

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Speaker 2: is blowback from him. There's been a settlment with Maine

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Speaker 2: more recently. Do you feel like you can be heard

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Speaker 2: that there is any kind of dialogue between you is

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Speaker 2: the head of a state and this administration or is

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Speaker 2: it simply kind of irreparibly divided at this point under

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Speaker 2: this president.

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Speaker 3: My hope is that it's not divided. I'm actually working

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Speaker 3: to get into talk to as many secretaries did that

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Speaker 3: today had some good news from the Veterans Administration on

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Speaker 3: a request for a waiver so that we can keep

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Speaker 3: building and investing in the ways that we have been

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Speaker 3: for veterans' long term care, and we got that. We

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Speaker 3: want to do drug in addiction and focused work with

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Speaker 3: homeland security. We have a lot of emergency response issues.

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Speaker 3: I need that relationship. I have a relationship with Secretary

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Speaker 3: Nome from our time as governors and in Congress, and

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Speaker 3: there are plenty of others like the Secretary of Interior

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Speaker 3: Doug Burgham, and I'm working to develop a relationship in

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Speaker 3: the White House. In my long career I hope that

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Speaker 3: most New Mexicans still think it's been an effective effort.

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Speaker 3: I still love my state and I'm working hard, and

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Speaker 3: our economy is I think, proof positive, and our cradle

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Speaker 3: to career investments bar none best in the country. There

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Speaker 3: every administration, your respective of party, I have great support

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Speaker 3: from and agreements with and the opposite. And so it's

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Speaker 3: navigating and doing what's right for your citizens. And I

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Speaker 3: will tell you what my businesses are telling me. Can

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Speaker 3: we land a place that's predictable, that's fair, that doesn't

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Speaker 3: feel like it's a roller coaster because they don't expand

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Speaker 3: they don't invest when that's the situation. So my job

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Speaker 3: is to create stability in every relationship in the federal government.

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Speaker 3: But I also don't tolerate, and shouldn't anybody who goes

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Speaker 3: after my state or tries to do something that hurts

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Speaker 3: a New Mexican or their family. Any administration, including this one,

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Speaker 3: should expect me to punch above my weight class.

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Speaker 2: Last question we got about a minute left. You were

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Speaker 2: recently in Japan and Singapore. What were those conversations like

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Speaker 2: as you talked to government leaders there about the prospects

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Speaker 2: for investment and economic opportunity in this country given the

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Speaker 2: uncertainty that you were just talking about.

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Speaker 3: Worried about tariffs. I mean, there was in a single

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Speaker 3: meeting that didn't start with that. I was there with

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Speaker 3: another governor, Governor of Wyoming, and we were very clear

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Speaker 3: we don't set that federal policy. We're certainly not in

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Speaker 3: a position and won't to try to negotiate that that's

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Speaker 3: going to happen between you and the White House. But

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Speaker 3: we have also right We signed saying that tariffs is

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Speaker 3: not the right for US, free trade, capitalistic set of

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Speaker 3: policies that we think work best in our states. We

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Speaker 3: were really clear about that, and where we really highlighted

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Speaker 3: the opportunities in this administration is energy dominance, if you will,

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Speaker 3: or production. The second largest oil and gas producer, we

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Speaker 3: produce the cleanest barrel of oil and the cleanest leader

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Speaker 3: of gas on the globe because we set very very

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Speaker 3: clear carbon right intensity, lack thereof requirements. We have the

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Speaker 3: strongest methane rules now that they've been rolled back at

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Speaker 3: the federal government in the country. And guess where these

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Speaker 3: countries want to go. They want to purchase the cleanest gas.

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Speaker 3: Guess who has the largest gas reserve New Mexico. So

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Speaker 3: here's where I think I can find a really productive path.

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Speaker 3: This administration wants to make sure that energy security around

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Speaker 3: the globe runs right through the USA. I want New

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Speaker 3: Mexico to be at the front of that. And frankly,

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Speaker 3: Western States of empowering Western States forever, and Eastern states

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Speaker 3: are going to need our energy solar when geothermal storage.

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Speaker 3: Many states are working on small scale nuclear fusion. That's

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Speaker 3: happening in New Mexico as we speak. And absolutely let

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Speaker 3: us get Ellen g around the world.

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Speaker 2: Governor, nice to see you. Thanks, thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Chilo and Grisham join me here in Washington, DC. Appreciate

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Speaker 2: her time. On this Monday afternoon. I want to turn

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Speaker 2: out to our political panel back with Us once again.

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Speaker 2: Genie Cienzano is with US. Senior Democracy fellow with the

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Speaker 2: Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress. John Seaton,

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Speaker 2: Republican strategist and founderancy of Echo Canyon, consulting here with

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Speaker 2: us as well, and Genie, I'll turn to you first,

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Speaker 2: just your reaction to that, particularly on the notion of

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Speaker 2: trade in the way that the US continues to sort

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Speaker 2: of look for ways forward here in light of the

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Speaker 2: uncertainty that's kind of overarching so many of the economic relationships.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, the governor just speaks so eloquently and

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Speaker 6: really thoughtfully about the impact of this on people on

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Speaker 6: the ground, and particularly obviously in her state, and I

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Speaker 6: do think we need to hear more of that. It

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Speaker 6: was one of the first things she said to you, David,

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Speaker 6: when you started asking her, is we need to hear

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Speaker 6: more whether it's the medicaid cuts, whether it's trade, or

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Speaker 6: whether it's this new de or deportation policy not necessarily

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Speaker 6: new what she described as gross.

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Speaker 4: When you listen to the stories.

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Speaker 6: Of how this has impacting people on the ground, that is,

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Speaker 6: when people can make a real determination as to whether,

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Speaker 6: in fact the policy is one that the United States

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Speaker 6: should be promoting.

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Speaker 4: John Seaton on that same point.

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Speaker 2: Here you have her, of course overseeing the government of

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Speaker 2: New Mexico, other governors trying this as well. What do

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Speaker 2: you make of that the prospects for I guess the

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Speaker 2: state level trying to broker deals or kind of see

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Speaker 2: through the maybe uncertainty that exists at the federal level

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Speaker 2: but might be clearer at the state level.

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Speaker 7: I think, to her point, a lot of this is

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Speaker 7: the purview of the federal government. And as I said

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Speaker 7: on this program and others, a lot of this really

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Speaker 7: should not be a surprise.

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Speaker 5: This is what President Trump campaigned on.

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Speaker 7: And I do think that, you know, whether it's immigration

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Speaker 7: and getting people who really should not be in this

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Speaker 7: country out of this country, whether it is taking a

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Speaker 7: tougher stance on trade and tariffs to make sure that

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Speaker 7: we get fair deals, this is what the President campaigned on.

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Speaker 4: So I don't think there should be a huge surprise here.

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Speaker 7: And I do think, once again this had in the

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Speaker 7: previous segment, that as long as the President continues to

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Speaker 7: communicate how this will long term affect and impact and

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Speaker 7: benefit American families, I think that people will will come

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Speaker 7: around and be supportive of his efforts.

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Speaker 2: John, let me put a version of the question I

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Speaker 2: put to the governor to you, and that is how

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Speaker 2: good is the relationship do you think between governors of

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Speaker 2: both stripes Republican Democrat and this White House? What more

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Speaker 2: can be done here to have more constructive conversations in

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Speaker 2: the interests and states that aren't Republican.

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Speaker 7: Right, And I'm not privy to those conversations, of course,

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Speaker 7: but I do think that open lines of communication are

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Speaker 7: always important, and governors really are kind of CEOs of

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Speaker 7: their states, and so it's extremely important that there be

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Speaker 7: open lines of communication that they go both ways. Governors

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Speaker 7: should continue to communicate to the White House and administration

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Speaker 7: in the various agencies what it is that they need,

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Speaker 7: what it is that they're seeing on the ground, and

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Speaker 7: be supportive of the efforts, even if they happen to

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Speaker 7: be of a different political party. At the end of

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Speaker 7: the day, people are elected to serve all of their constituents,

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Speaker 7: not just one party or the other, and so would

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Speaker 7: like to see as much communication and transparency as possible

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Speaker 7: between state governments and the White House and administration.

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Speaker 4: And I hope that continues.

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Speaker 2: Gendie the governor, and I didn't get to talk about

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty six or twenty twenty eight. Her term is

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Speaker 2: up in twenty twenty six, but something interesting is kind

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Speaker 2: of happening in the state of New Mexico. She recently

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Speaker 2: called in the National Guard to Albuquerque because of violence

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Speaker 2: and crime. There got some pushback from that, but it's

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Speaker 2: kind of sharpened this distinction between or among Democrats, that

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Speaker 2: there are those who favor that kind of harder line

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Speaker 2: approach and those who don't. And I think it's going

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Speaker 2: to kind of set the foundation for the race for

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Speaker 2: her success or, at least on the Democratic side here,

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Speaker 2: What do you make of that? What does the New

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Speaker 2: Mexico story tell you or tell us about the way

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Party moves forward? Here to twenty twenty six

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Speaker 2: and indeed to twenty twenty.

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Speaker 6: Eight is well, well, yeah, And there's nothing I like

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Speaker 6: more than to talk about elections, David, so thank you.

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Speaker 6: We don't get enough of them since twenty twenty four

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Speaker 6: in my book. But you know, I think there is

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Speaker 6: a real divide on the Democratic side. How do you

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Speaker 6: handle issues regarding insecurity? And I think the governor is

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Speaker 6: leading in the right way. There is no world in

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Speaker 6: which any of us should be living insecure in our

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Speaker 6: homes and worried about being victims of crime and violence.

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Speaker 6: It is absolutely unacceptable, and so you have to deal

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Speaker 6: with it as governor. That is her job as the

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Speaker 6: executive of the state, and every other governor should follow suit.

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Speaker 6: And Democrats who don't end up with a world of

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Speaker 6: hurt both politically but more importantly with their constituents, because

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Speaker 6: none of us deserves to live in a place where

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Speaker 6: we can't feel safe. So safety, economic security, those are

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Speaker 6: number one and number two or vice versa. However you

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Speaker 6: want to count them in terms of what an executive

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Speaker 6: has to do, and as they look for the next

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Speaker 6: executive in New Mexico, you can bet Democrats on the

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Speaker 6: ground are going to keep that in mind. We want

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Speaker 6: to be safe, secure, happy, and fulfilled in our lives.

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Speaker 2: Great to speak with both you and I thank you

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Speaker 2: for listening through that interview as well to get your

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Speaker 2: reaction to it. That's shiny Sheenzano, Senior Democracy Fellow with

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Speaker 2: the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.

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Speaker 2: John Seaton joined as founder and CEO of Echo Canyon Consulting.

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Speaker 2: He is a Republican strategist. On the heels of that

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Speaker 2: interview that I had with Michelle Luhan Grisham, the governor

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Speaker 2: of New Mexico here in Washington for a couple of days,

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Speaker 2: and just invaluable to get her perspective on the issues

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Speaker 2: of immigration and healthcare as well and also the future

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Speaker 2: of the Democratic Party as we were just discussing.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: In the President of the United States flying back from

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Speaker 2: West Palm Beach to Washington last night and taking questions

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Speaker 2: from reporters in the back of that plane, talking about

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Speaker 2: a host of subjects, including the economy and trade in

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Speaker 2: specific giving an update on the conversations he says are

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Speaker 2: taking place between the United States and dozens of other countries.

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Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

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Speaker 8: At some point in the next two weeks or three weeks,

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Speaker 8: I'm going to be setting the deal. We're negotiating with

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Speaker 8: many countries, but at the end of this I'll send

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Speaker 8: my own deal. So we're meeting with almost all of them,

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Speaker 8: including China, and at the end I'm setting the deal.

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Speaker 8: You keep asking the same question, when will you agree?

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Speaker 8: It's up to me sign up to them.

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Speaker 4: It is up to him, President Trump. There on Air

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Speaker 4: Force one.

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Speaker 2: Lorie Davison joins US now Deputy Borough Chief here in Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C. Lord, give us a sense of where you

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Speaker 2: think things stand at this point. From our reporting on

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Speaker 2: this again, it's been we saw the prospects of Howard

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Speaker 2: Letnik earlier on saying ninety deals in ninety days. We're

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Speaker 2: not at ninety yet. Many days have a lapse. The

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Speaker 2: none has been announced as of yet where do things stand?

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Speaker 9: So where we are is there have been no concrete

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Speaker 9: signs that any of these deals are progressing. They've indicated

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Speaker 9: that India, South Korea, Japan maybe might be at the

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Speaker 9: top of that list, and for you know, even last week,

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Speaker 9: Kevin hasn't said maybe by the end of the week

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Speaker 9: there will be a deal. Now this week they're saying

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Speaker 9: again but perhaps a deal, but not committing to it. Recall,

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Speaker 9: two weeks ago Trump said they'll have everything done in

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Speaker 9: three to four weeks. We're now two weeks into that

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Speaker 9: time period.

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Speaker 4: Nothing.

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Speaker 9: The other important thing to remember is that anything that

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Speaker 9: comes out is likely to be sort of a symbolic

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Speaker 9: nod to an agreement versus something that's fully hashed out

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Speaker 9: of some sort of you know, memorandum of understanding or

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Speaker 9: something that says, okay, we're going to keep talking, but

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Speaker 9: here's at least some sort of top line agreement going forward.

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Speaker 3: It's clear that the White House is.

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Speaker 9: Very, very keen to show markets some signs that they're

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Speaker 9: making progress. They just don't have anything on paper yet.

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Speaker 2: When you look at all of the countries who purportedly

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Speaker 2: are talking with the White House, are they hoping that

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Speaker 2: one of these comes together first before the others? Are

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Speaker 2: they hoping that they become sort of signals or signs

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Speaker 2: to other countries who haven't broken deals yet. Is there

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Speaker 2: any sort of hierarchy? I guess the way that they're

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Speaker 2: approaching this, there is some.

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Speaker 9: I mean they've clearly favored the countries who came first

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Speaker 9: to the table and said, hey, look we want to

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Speaker 9: make a deal, getting those in the front of the queue.

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Speaker 9: They're also looking at, you know, which countries are the

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Speaker 9: most important here, of course, you know, India, Vietnam, South

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Speaker 9: Korea are all big trading partners. You know, China remains

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Speaker 9: the big exception there of you know, Trump is really

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Speaker 9: eager to talk to China. The Chinese last week signaled

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Speaker 9: that maybe talks could start. But this is going to

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Speaker 9: be a very long, drun out process. You know, they've

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Speaker 9: been in this back and forth sort of you know,

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Speaker 9: posture setting, you know, really not even since April seconds,

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Speaker 9: since Liberation Day. This goes back even further to the

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Speaker 9: ventinal tariffs that came on in the early days of

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Speaker 9: Trump's term.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned China.

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Speaker 2: There was this very long, very newsy interview that Christal

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Speaker 2: Welker of NBC did on Meet the Press or yesterday

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Speaker 2: in which China came up. What did you hear from

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Speaker 2: that about sort of the precedent sense of where those

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Speaker 2: conversations are going. You mentioned there was a bit of

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Speaker 2: positive news as of last week as the White House

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Speaker 2: sas at markets were grateful to see that as well. This,

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Speaker 2: of course is the one that they need to have happen,

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Speaker 2: given how high tariffs are and how kind of much

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Speaker 2: of a quagmire they're in here.

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Speaker 9: Trump's really have two minds in this. He acknowledged what

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Speaker 9: Treasure Seckers said, Coretary Scott Bessett has been saying for

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Speaker 9: days of the tariff levels as they are now are

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Speaker 9: unsustainable and that means that trade has essentially shut down

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Speaker 9: between those two countries. He said he'd be willing to

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Speaker 9: take those teriff rates down at some point in the future.

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Speaker 9: But you've also seen Trump really double down on this

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Speaker 9: line that has gotten a lot of traction on you know,

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Speaker 9: there may not come Christmas time, may not be thirty

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Speaker 9: dollars on the shelf.

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Speaker 3: There's only going to be two. He repeated that again

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Speaker 3: over the weekend.

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Speaker 9: And this is really going to be the question of,

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Speaker 9: you know, how much pain is Trump willing to withstand if,

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Speaker 9: you know, retailers suddenly start not having all the things

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Speaker 9: that consumers are used to. She has signaled that the

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Speaker 9: Chinese are willing to withstand this a lot longer. Trump

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Speaker 9: so far has has signaled he's going to fold if

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Speaker 9: he's really facing pain for markets or consumers.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to continue to.

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Speaker 2: Draw up from that interview that that NBC News did

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Speaker 2: a lot of it had to do with the economy,

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Speaker 2: and Kristen Welker asked the President about the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 2: Chairman Jerome Powell, what he's thinking about sort of how

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Speaker 2: safe he is in that position? Would he consider removing him?

438
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 2: Let's take a listen to what the President had the

439
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 2: same response to questions about j. Powell and the Federal Reserve.

440
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 10: You should lower them, and at some point he will

441
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 10: he'd rather not because he's not a fan of mine.

442
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 10: Not you know, it just doesn't like me because I

443
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 10: think he's a total stiff, And you know, it's just

444
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 10: one of those things. He should lower them, and I

445
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 10: wish the people that are on that board would get

446
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 10: him to lower because we are at a perfect time.

447
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 10: It's already late, but he should lower interest rates.

448
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:28,640
Speaker 2: You, Laura, I'm curious of how you process what you heard.

449
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 2: There so no direct threat on Jrum. Powell's position is

450
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The presence sort of

451
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 2: indicating that others on the FED board might coalesce around

452
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 2: him and push back on him. How does this advance

453
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: the story about FED independence, the sanctity and safeness of

454
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: that here during this administration?

455
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 9: At least for now, it seems that Trump is going

456
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 9: to let Powell serve out the rest of his term,

457
00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 9: which ends next May. You're hearing some of the more

458
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 9: markets focused people in his ears, Scott Bessett, Howard Lutnik

459
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 9: among those saying, Hey, look, you're really going to disturb markets,

460
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 9: freak out investors. Just keep Powell there. You get to

461
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 9: pick an new guy here in twelve months. Anyways, they're

462
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 9: going to start searching for the next FED chair. Just

463
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 9: let that play out. But he's still not willing to

464
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 9: sort of give up, you know, sort of his his

465
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 9: complaints and his criticisms of FED, of the FED, and

466
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,120
Speaker 9: of Palell specifically. You know, almost every day, multiple times

467
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 9: a week, we're hearing him go on social media and say,

468
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 9: you know that Powell is too weak, Powell is a

469
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 9: stiff Palell. You know, he's going to make his displeasure

470
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 9: known even if he's not going to actually take any

471
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 9: action there.

472
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 2: And it's funny, sort if we talk about FED independence

473
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 2: maybe in the context of could the president or would

474
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: the president remove the FED chair?

475
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 4: But this has an effect.

476
00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 2: The degree to which he talks about FED policy makes

477
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 2: his opinions known. This is different than the way past

478
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: presidents have approached that relationship between the president and the

479
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 2: FED chair. And I think a lot of people would

480
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 2: say it might have an effect to sort of on

481
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 2: the notion of independence of the Federal Reserve.

482
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 9: And well, here on Wednesday, when Powell comes out and

483
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 9: does his press conference of he's been very critical of

484
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,959
Speaker 9: tariffs in the past and sort of suggesting that this is,

485
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 9: you know, could tip the economy into a recession. We'll

486
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 9: see if he does. He pair back his languages is

487
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 9: he a little bit more moderated or does he, you know,

488
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 9: kind of continue to make some of those more sharp comments.

489
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 9: Fed chairs are tooriously the best at sort of figuring

490
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 9: out how to signal different things with their language, and

491
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 9: so that's what more markets are going to be waking

492
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 9: for here in two days.

493
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 2: I want to get your perspective as we start this

494
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 2: week about what's happening on Capitol Hill reconciliation. We've seen

495
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:13,639
Speaker 2: kind of many versions of what the time that might

496
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 2: be for getting a bill done here, your sense of

497
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 2: sort of where that stands, what the forcing mechanisms are

498
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: going to be for this to move fast or slow

499
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 2: going forward.

500
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 9: There are two key fault lines that they have not

501
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 9: figured out. One is Medicaid. House Republicans and particularly some

502
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 9: factions want big cuts to Medicaid. The President has said

503
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 9: absolutely no way. There was a big meeting last week

504
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,439
Speaker 9: that we walked out of that unresolved. But they have

505
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 9: to come up with that because either they cut medicaid

506
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 9: or and they can do more tax cuts, or they

507
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 9: don't cut medicaid. Fewer tax cuts that means the President

508
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 9: gets fewer of his no taxes on tips, no taxes

509
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 9: on overtime those campaign pledges, So the factions are still

510
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 9: really far apart.

511
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: There.

512
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 9: The other fault line, and this is more within Republicans

513
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 9: in the House, is on salt the state and local

514
00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 9: tax deduction. You have a small but very vocal group

515
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,439
Speaker 9: of members from New York and California who won a

516
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 9: big increase in that ten thousand dollars deduction cap. There

517
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 9: you have other members who this just isn't a political

518
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 9: priority for them at all. They have to both run

519
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 9: the numbers to make the math work as well as

520
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 9: come up with some political cell they can give to constituents.

521
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 2: A kind of theme over the weekend into this week

522
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 2: has been how is all of this playing among American consumers,

523
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 2: among American business owners and executives, and around the world

524
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,440
Speaker 2: as well. And there's this question of is American exceptionalism

525
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: on the wayne is it dead? Scott Bessett, the Treasury Secretary,

526
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 2: is in Beverly Hills. He was speaking at the Milk

527
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: and Global Conference. He addressed some of this today. Let's

528
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: take a listen to what he had to say.

529
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 11: America is the showing point of global finance. We have

530
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:36,440
Speaker 11: the world's reserve currency and the deepest and most liquid

531
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 11: capital markets and the strongest property rights. For these reasons,

532
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 11: the United States is the premier destination for international capital

533
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 11: and the administration's goal is to make it even more

534
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 11: appealing for investors like you.

535
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 2: He addressing that group of investors in California, appearing in

536
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: conversation with Michael Milkin, who started this conference. Of course,

537
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 2: you mentioned Scott Bessont a moment ago. What's the role

538
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 2: that he's playing now in the administration. Yes, as advisor

539
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: to President Trump, but also in communicating or projecting some

540
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 2: sense of stability here to markets, both in the US

541
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 2: and around the world.

542
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 9: He is the key voice that folks on Wallstreet are

543
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 9: going to to listen to to see, you know, kind

544
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 9: of read the tea leaves here. There was an interesting

545
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 9: just sort of shift in tone from Besson, even from

546
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 9: a month ago when he made a comment that it

547
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 9: was Main Street's moment, Wall Street it has time is

548
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 9: now as Main Street's time to shine. Today he meant

549
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 9: name checked both Main Street and Wall Street and saying,

550
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 9: look that these priorities can the administration's priorities can have

551
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 9: upside here for both. But he's, you know, like the

552
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 9: President acknowledging that, you know, he's softening the timeline here.

553
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 9: Trump has been very clear there's going to be a

554
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 9: period of pain, but Essen is saying, look, if you

555
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 9: invest now, we can quickly you know, sort of read

556
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,679
Speaker 9: jigger and read and grow the American economy.

557
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 2: And wrapping up quickly here just talking about trade and

558
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,080
Speaker 2: those talks. What role is he playing in those negotiations.

559
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 2: This is a multifaceted economics team of advisors that the

560
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,719
Speaker 2: President has. What is Scott Beston's role just in kind

561
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: of the granular level of negotiating these trade.

562
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 9: Deals, specifically taking on Asia. Howardlatneck is focusing on Europe,

563
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 9: but of course you know, Treasures Secretary is also involved

564
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 9: in the tax talks. He was involved in the Ukraine

565
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 9: nuclear or in the Ukraine critical mineral things.

566
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 3: So he has a very very busy plate, Lord.

567
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 2: Greate to speak with you, Thank you very much. That's

568
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: Lord Davison, our deputy BUA chief here in Washington. D

569
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 2: c's begain draw from that conference that's taking place in

570
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 2: Beverly Hills, California over these next few days. Bloomberg providing

571
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 2: comprehensive coverage of all the panels that are taking place.

572
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: Their interviews on the sidelines as well, and I should

573
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 2: say Scott Beson having a conversation there with Michael Milkin,

574
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: who founded that global conference many years ago, again talking

575
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,959
Speaker 2: a lot about trade, the trade deals that are being

576
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 2: broker the White House's position in those deals, and trying

577
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 2: to offer some assurance to the many investors who are

578
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 2: gathered there at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California.

579
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

580
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

581
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

582
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

583
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

584
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 2: fIF You're right in for Joe Matthew k Lines on

585
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 2: this Monday. And the President of the United States has

586
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,639
Speaker 2: movies on his mind. Evidently he spent the weekend with

587
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 2: John Voyd, the actor, and a few hours ago posted

588
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 2: this on truth Social we want movies made in America again.

589
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: The President in that post suggesting that there be a

590
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 2: one hundred percent tariff on any and all movies coming

591
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: into our country that are produced in foreign lands. He

592
00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 2: characterized this as a national security threat and said the

593
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 2: movie industry in America is dying a very fast death.

594
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,480
Speaker 2: Lucashaw is an editor Atloomberg News. He's the author of

595
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: the screen Time newsletter, a must read one you should

596
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 2: definitely check out and subscribe to, and he joins us

597
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: now from Los Angeles, where he keeps track on the

598
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: movie industry in the US and overseas. Lucas, let me

599
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: start with a basic question here, and that is the

600
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 2: pronouncement from the President that the movie industry in America

601
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 2: is dying a very fast death. Is that something with

602
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 2: which you and others would would agree.

603
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 12: It's an exaggeration. There's been a lot of concern about

604
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 12: the state to the movie business over the last several years,

605
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 12: certainly exacerbated by the pandemic a couple of big labor

606
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 12: stoppages a couple of years ago. So the movie business

607
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 12: isn't as strong as it once was, It is not

608
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 12: as central to culture as it once was. It is

609
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 12: not dying. You know, we have two or three very

610
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 12: popular movies in theaters right now. And perhaps more importantly,

611
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 12: it is not dying relative to other countries. It's not

612
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 12: as though you suddenly see movies from Europe or Asia

613
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 12: or Latin America that are supplanting US movies. You know,

614
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,840
Speaker 12: the movie business is facing the same problem all over

615
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 12: the world, and you know, US movies continue to be

616
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 12: the dominant type of movie. I think all ten of

617
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 12: the highest grossing movies of last year were released by

618
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:50,920
Speaker 12: US studios.

619
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 2: When you read this post, I wonder sort of what

620
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: questions it raised in your mind. I look at kind

621
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 2: of that key line here, this proposition of one hundred

622
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 2: percent tariff on movies coming into our country that are produced.

623
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 4: In foreign lands.

624
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 2: How how much ambiguity is there about that language what

625
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 2: the President might be referring.

626
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 12: To here a lot, you know, I think that Yeah.

627
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 12: The first well, frankly, my first response was like, what

628
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 12: exactly is going on here? What you know, as with

629
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 12: so many of the President's posts on social media, sort

630
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 12: of what motivated which I think we answered, But also

631
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:34,440
Speaker 12: you know why this is not and I get wanting

632
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,719
Speaker 12: to address it pre economic reasons. I would not describe

633
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 12: this as a national security threat, but then it just

634
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 12: raises a lot of questions. Right, So, the Hollywood studios

635
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 12: produce a lot of their movies outside of the US.

636
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 12: They'll film in UK or Eastern Europe, or wherever it

637
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 12: may be. But there's still plenty of work on them

638
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 12: done in the US, whether that is some post production work,

639
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 12: whether that's there are many kind of steps in the

640
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 12: process of making a movie, and it is true that

641
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 12: more and more of them have left the country, but

642
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 12: a lot is still done here. So how are you

643
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 12: defining that, right? Are you trying to go after movies

644
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 12: that other countries or companies from other countries are releasing,

645
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 12: which would seem to be the implication, Right You're going

646
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 12: after Japanese movies or Chinese movies or Indian movies. Those

647
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 12: movies don't really make a lot of money here. Every

648
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 12: once in a while you'll have a breakout. Or are

649
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 12: you trying to force US companies like Disney, Warner Brothers,

650
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 12: Universal to produce movies in the US instead, which we've

651
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 12: seen Trump attempt with some of his other policies to

652
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 12: bring manufacturing back here, even if it's from American companies.

653
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 12: And then there's like the added wrinkle of these global

654
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 12: streaming services where you know, Netflix makes a lot of

655
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 12: movies in English, some of which are made in the

656
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 12: United States, but they also make a lot of shows

657
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,719
Speaker 12: in other countries because they exist everywhere, and they make

658
00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 12: movies in dozens of languages, and so there's just a

659
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 12: lot of questions to try to unpack here, and I

660
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 12: don't really think that Trump has the answer to them

661
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 12: at this point, but hopefully we'll have some clarity in

662
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 12: the next few weeks.

663
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 2: Just lastly here, I wanted to ask you about the

664
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: incentive system that's in place here domestically, and how say

665
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 2: a state like Georgia or Texas California can compete with

666
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: these foreign countries. In other words, is the competition a

667
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: domestic competition mostly when Hollywood's looking to make films, or

668
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: do we see playing out kind of on a global scale.

669
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 12: Well, there's two levels of competition, right There are a

670
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 12: lot of people who want to bring more production back

671
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 12: to California, specifically because we've seen a lot of production

672
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 12: move to places like Georgia, New York, places that have

673
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 12: offered generous incentives to lower production. And that's still that's

674
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 12: all within this country. So I don't see why Trump

675
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 12: would really care about that. In fact, he might cheer

676
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 12: because California is not exactly the most hospitable place for

677
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 12: him politically. Then there's the second aspect of it, which

678
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 12: is the global part, where again they're very generous incentives

679
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 12: to shoot elsewhere there are different labor environments. One of

680
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 12: the things that John Voyd and Stephen Paul, his manager,

681
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 12: and others have pushed for is maybe a federal incentive

682
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 12: that can be on top of state incentives that would

683
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 12: make it cheaper to shoot here. How you know how

684
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 12: much of an impact that would have, I'm not really sure,

685
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 12: but I do think that studios and producers would welcome

686
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 12: the US trying to be more competitive and make it

687
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 12: more compelling to shoot here, because most people would rather

688
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 12: shoot here if they can.

689
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:31,479
Speaker 4: Lucas, thank you very much.

690
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 2: That's Lucas Shaw of Bloomberg News out in California helping

691
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 2: us to parse that post on truth social from the

692
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: President of the United States. Something else the President talked

693
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 2: about over the course of the weekend was gas prices

694
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: and energy more broadly. He did that on comments that

695
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: he made on Air Force One and also during an

696
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 2: interview on Meet the Press with Christen Wilgrims. Take a

697
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: listen to what he had to say about energy prices.

698
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 10: Prices are down for oil. Prices are down for oil.

699
00:33:55,360 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 10: Energy prices are down at tremendous numbers for Essleine. What

700
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 10: really killed us with inflation was the price of energy.

701
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 10: It went up to three dollars and ninety even four

702
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 10: dollars and in California five and six dollars. Right, okay,

703
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 10: I have it down to a dollar ninety eight in

704
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 10: many states right now.

705
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: The President saying he has it down to a dollar

706
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: ninety eight in many states. I took a cursory look

707
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:21,359
Speaker 2: at the triple A fuel tracker yesterday, couldn't find one

708
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 2: that had it below two dollars a gallon. Mike mcgloane

709
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 2: is a strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior commodity strategist if

710
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence.

711
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 4: He joins us now from Miami.

712
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: That's where I want to go with you, if I

713
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 2: could hear Mike, and that is that the President has

714
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: all of this rhetoric about drill, baby, drill. He's talking

715
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 2: about gas prices being incredibly low. We see oil prices

716
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 2: seeking today. Now we have OPEC plus saying it's going

717
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: to flood the market and in boost production here in

718
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 2: the month ahead. Helped me see my way through all

719
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 2: of this. Both the president's desire for oil prices to

720
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 2: go lower, and yet the very real pain that's being

721
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,959
Speaker 2: felt I think here in the US and some oil

722
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 2: producers around the.

723
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 5: World, well, hello David.

724
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 13: In my view, he's going to get it, partly because

725
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 13: he has pre existing trends in his favor. Before he

726
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 13: was elected, we had an issue in the world of

727
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 13: declining demand most noted people in China crude oil, de

728
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 13: seel and things, and massive increasing supply and production and

729
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 13: excess of capacity to out of Opek.

730
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:12,240
Speaker 5: What's happening.

731
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 13: They can only wait so long and they're starting to

732
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 13: bring that excess to Campaty. On the scales, on the markets,

733
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 13: the key thing to think about is gasoline.

734
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 5: It's key, a significant thing for consumer sentiment.

735
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 13: The average price on an annual on a global and

736
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 13: i'm sorry in a national basis is about three dollars

737
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 13: and sixteen cents. That's up on the year, but from

738
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 13: last year at this time, which is a way to measure,

739
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 13: because now we're in summer driving season, it's down from

740
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 13: three dollars and sixty cents about fifteen cents, and I

741
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 13: think it's eventually going to get down to two dollars

742
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 13: on average. But unfortunately we've had three bottoms near there

743
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 13: that started in two thousand and eight, twenty sixteen, twenty twenty.

744
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 13: They're almost always associated with recessions, but I think they're

745
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 13: going there's just a matter of time, and crude oil

746
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 13: is on that trajectory.

747
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 4: Mike.

748
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: We see Opeck plus the cartel boosting production by four

749
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 2: hundred eleven thousand barrels, and this is ATel that's led

750
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 2: by the likes of Saudi Arabia and Russia. And I

751
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: understand there's an impulse here to punish some other producers.

752
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,520
Speaker 2: Make them sweat, I think is the technical term. How

753
00:36:09,520 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 2: effective are they in doing that by boosting production the

754
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 2: way that they have here and look forward to doing

755
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 2: in the month ahead.

756
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,560
Speaker 13: Well, I'm enjoying that narrative, Dave, because there's a thing

757
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 13: we've been I've been predicting for two years. It's just

758
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 13: they can only hold off their production for a song

759
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 13: so long. Exactly why they're saying they're doing it doesn't

760
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 13: matter as much to me as the fact that we

761
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 13: have a president who wants lower prices. We have pre

762
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 13: existing trends in their favor, the whole economic situations turning

763
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 13: that way. And by the way, I think President Trump's

764
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 13: visiting Saudi Arabia soon. So this is something we've been

765
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 13: waiting for for two years in the oil market.

766
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 5: Now it's happening. So it's questions where it stops.

767
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 13: So KRUDEO around fifty six dollars of barrel is a

768
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 13: pretty good support area from the average price twenty nineteen.

769
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 5: That's what prices always do. They asked about the average

770
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 5: cost of production. US commodities always go.

771
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 13: Back their average cost of productions, but typically in the past,

772
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 13: the last since twenty years, have had to get below

773
00:36:58,000 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 13: those levels, which has been around forty dollars a bit.

774
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 13: So I think it's going to happen, and OPEC's going

775
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 13: to just help make it happen. The thing is they

776
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 13: held off their production for so long. They need money

777
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 13: and it's all coming back on board. And a thing

778
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 13: to remember at OPEK, they are diminishing significance ei their cartel.

779
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 13: Maybe they're less than almost twenty five percent of global production.

780
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 13: Twenty years ago they were forty percent. It's becoming less important.

781
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 13: The US is the largest manifactured, lattest producer, and a

782
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 13: net exporter.

783
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 2: Now, Mike, I want to ask you about the degree

784
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 2: to which uncertainty is affecting a number of these producers.

785
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 2: So of course you acknowledged the fact President Trump heading

786
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 2: to the region shortly, but we saw news out of

787
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 2: Israel that they're vowing to step up there fighting in Gaza.

788
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 2: We could see another incursion there. How much has that

789
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 2: is that likely to affect prices broadly? That level of

790
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 2: instability in the Middle East, any type.

791
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 13: Of violence and wars and things and missiles flying in

792
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 13: Middle East, so usually a bid for crudiell But that

793
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 13: was really the narrative from two years ago when the

794
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 13: war started, and it's been diminishing over time, partly because

795
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 13: the world shifted. US doesn't import oil from that area,

796
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 13: and whether they if they do, we have a net

797
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 13: exports surplus going away from the US.

798
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,360
Speaker 5: We have to We have actually of a glut of

799
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:08,720
Speaker 5: crude oil in grains as the country.

800
00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,800
Speaker 13: We have to export them if we don't with prices

801
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 13: go down, and that's part of what's happening with the

802
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,640
Speaker 13: trade war. But when you hear about that kind of

803
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 13: anytime market bids up for kind of missiles flying in

804
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 13: the Middle East, unless there's a definitive cut and production

805
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 13: or supply, it usually is a short term bounce and

806
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 13: goes back down to the macro, and the macro is

807
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 13: particularly if the US stock market's heading low for a

808
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,240
Speaker 13: US recession and all the rest of the world faces

809
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 13: tarris from the US recession from the US as there

810
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 13: the man was declining from China.

811
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 5: You see the tilt. It's just back to a normal

812
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 5: downward cycle. That's the key thing.

813
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 13: We haven't really got cheap yet. We're just heading towards

814
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:45,759
Speaker 13: that level right now. We're about break even, Mike.

815
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: Lastly, here we got about a minute left. What if

816
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,840
Speaker 2: we heard from the heads of major US energy companies.

817
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:52,720
Speaker 2: What are they watching? What are they paying closest attention

818
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 2: to here?

819
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 4: And we've had a.

820
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: Number of interviews with them, spoken on earnings calls as well.

821
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 2: If you were sort of give us a sense of

822
00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 2: their message overall, what would it be.

823
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 5: Well, I can tell you what they're doing in futures.

824
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 13: There's a backwardation of futures when the further off of future's.

825
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 5: Price has been lower.

826
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 13: And I think partly because they're selling their production ahead.

827
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,439
Speaker 13: They're doing a prudent thing the heads their production, which

828
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 13: means they can still bring it on sell forward.

829
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 5: And if prices dropped right away. There's so much hedge now.

830
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 13: Most of those producers are usually hoping for higher prices

831
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 13: and they say it, but they realize the problem is

832
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 13: they're going lower and because of rapidly dancing technology, they

833
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 13: can bring in more supply and they have been most

834
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 13: knowingly be the minors the independence and bringing it on,

835
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 13: particularly in the US and US shale. So this might

836
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 13: curtail ushale, but you're probably gonna have to get below

837
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 13: fifty hours to really cut it off, cut off that

838
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 13: excess supply.

839
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 4: Of the US. Mike, it's always great to catch up

840
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 4: with you. Thank you very much.

841
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 2: As Mike mcgloan's senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, here

842
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 2: is oil is really in focus, given what we've heard

843
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: from the President, the prospects of the trip that he

844
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: is scheduled to take to the Middle East in just

845
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 2: a few weeks time, and of course what we heard

846
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 2: out of Israel about the prospects they are being perhaps

847
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 2: a second incrusion into Gaza. And we look at oil

848
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: prices here really hovering around that six dollar a barrel

849
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 2: level and a real concern for a lot of US

850
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 2: oil producers given the fact that there is a threshold

851
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:09,880
Speaker 2: under which producing oil becomes increasingly difficult for those companies.

852
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

853
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

854
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,279
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855
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,600
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856
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:28,320
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