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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh, to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: bloom to Boston, Bloomberg twelve Honors, to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country, US Exam Channel one nine, and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio Bus, Bloomberg dot Com. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. What do you say? Thirty on Wall

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Speaker 1: Street I Michael McKee along with Tom Keene Economic Indicators

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Speaker 1: brought to Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to change

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Speaker 1: the conversation, talk with a broker dealer r I A

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Speaker 1: that's ready to listen, call eight six six four six

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Speaker 1: two three six three eight or visit Commonwealth dot com

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Speaker 1: to learn more. Well, the one number we have out

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Speaker 1: this morning is the import price Index down three tenths

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Speaker 1: of eight percent. Last month it was down one percent,

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Speaker 1: and so that is I guess something. I've an improvement

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Speaker 1: the import price index year over year down six point

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Speaker 1: one percent. Our neighbors north of the border are reporting

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Speaker 1: their jobs figures and it is not good news. Canada

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Speaker 1: loses jobs in February. The jobless rate climbs to seven

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Speaker 1: point three. Yeah, but that was just the NHL teams

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Speaker 1: up there trading all their players out there, wait until

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Speaker 1: after the trading deadline to put these figures out going

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Speaker 1: from Montreal the Chicago Blackhawks that directly affects Canada's labor

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Speaker 1: force falls at the jobless larrate clives might out also

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Speaker 1: have something to do with earl prices, as they would

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Speaker 1: say out West um, but anyway, not good news for Canada.

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Speaker 1: Scott Brown is with He is a senior vice president

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Speaker 1: chief economist at Raymond James Associates. He's down in the

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Speaker 1: Tampa area. Believe in we we talked to him, I

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Speaker 1: think last about the Tampa Bay lightning. Well we did, Scott.

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Speaker 1: I just want to jump in here. I know we

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Speaker 1: want to get the drug you and all that. Why

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Speaker 1: do I care about import price indexes? John riding It

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Speaker 1: already h makes a big deal about this. Why does

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Speaker 1: Scott Brown care about import prices? Well, it's one part

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Speaker 1: of the overall inflation outlook. UM. We've seen obviously a

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Speaker 1: strong dollar, substantial weakness in commodity prices, particularly energy UM,

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Speaker 1: and that has a mixed effect on the economy. It's

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Speaker 1: especially beneficial to consumers because that means the price of

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Speaker 1: goods are are going to be a lot lower UM

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Speaker 1: and particularly to drop a gasoline that leaves them your

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Speaker 1: typical consumer with the more money to spend on other things.

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Speaker 1: So that's very very much a positive. But we're also

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Speaker 1: seeing downward pressure on export prices. You know, for the US,

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Speaker 1: we export a lot of raw materials, we export a

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Speaker 1: lot of farm products, and those prices have been down

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Speaker 1: pretty substantially year over yere um. That may change since

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Speaker 1: much of that is based on the weather. We were

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Speaker 1: talking yesterday about that with Dennis Garman, who sees higher

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Speaker 1: prices for soft commodies. If we start getting um, we

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Speaker 1: start getting a higher prices, hows that affect us? Well,

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Speaker 1: this should the bottom ount. In fact, I think the

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Speaker 1: policymakers anticipate that, you know, we'll see at least some

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Speaker 1: stabilization and if not improvement. And we've already seen oil

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Speaker 1: prices rebound. We're now at thirty eight dollars for w

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Speaker 1: t I that you know, certainly trending higher. Uh. So

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Speaker 1: many things have turned um. You know, we mentioned the

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Speaker 1: stronger dollar, particularly if you look at the first couple

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Speaker 1: of months of this year, we had you know, even

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Speaker 1: a further game in the dollar versus our two key

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Speaker 1: trading partners Canada in Mexico that now has turned the

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Speaker 1: corner and started to move the other way. Very often

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Speaker 1: you'll see currencies over shooting in one direction and then

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Speaker 1: eventually correction correcting. So I think that's where we are now.

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Speaker 1: It's you know, at some point people are going to

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Speaker 1: start looking at emerging economies and not be so fearful.

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Speaker 1: Maybe the capital starts flowing, you know, back out of

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Speaker 1: the US towards these emerging economies. Getting that timing is

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Speaker 1: going to pretty difficult, but you know, it may have

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Speaker 1: already started when I look at global GDP on a Friday,

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Speaker 1: and of course after all the festivities of yesterday as well,

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Speaker 1: when the clarion emotions of this first quarter, as city

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Speaker 1: groups called of global recession and the gaming of the probability,

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Speaker 1: and that the backdrop of this is the US does okay,

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Speaker 1: England does okay? Ireland I believe showed great numbers. Yesterday's

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Speaker 1: Many has mentioned Spain as well. What is the likelihood

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Speaker 1: Scott around now of global recession? Well, I think we're

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Speaker 1: relatively close. I mean, if you look at the old

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Speaker 1: MS definition three global growth used to be uh considered

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Speaker 1: a global recession, and that is because a lot of

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Speaker 1: these emerging economies normally are going to be growing a

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Speaker 1: lot faster. It's a little bit less than three percent now,

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Speaker 1: and that's because you have to account for the population

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Speaker 1: growth slowing down. So you know, we're we're you know,

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Speaker 1: relatively thought. I mean, that's that's no surprise. UM. I

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Speaker 1: think there's really an over obsession with this, uh, with

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Speaker 1: our word. UM. You know, I've been getting calls almost daily,

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Speaker 1: are we heading into recession? Out a piece the last

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Speaker 1: week about the how you determine whether we are one

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Speaker 1: in a recession? What the indicators are, um. And the

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Speaker 1: fear is that we're gonna end up talking ourselves into one.

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Speaker 1: And and that's really I think the dominant factor this issue.

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Speaker 1: But Mike, one of the great observations which I think,

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Speaker 1: Michael McKie you brought up this week for Scott Brown

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Speaker 1: is the exit polls from the Michigan primary and how

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Speaker 1: people feel about Scott Brown's American economy. Yeah. The amazing thing.

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Speaker 1: Eight of ten voters in Mississippi are very concerned about

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Speaker 1: the state of the economy, which is different from what

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Speaker 1: you hear from people like Scott Broth. Well, it's exactly

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Speaker 1: the true. And in this sort of political environment as well.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you've got one side who you know, this

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Speaker 1: has to be a terrible economy because you want to

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Speaker 1: see the wife white House switch parties. You're gonna hear

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Speaker 1: that rhetoric. Um. And for most people, I'm granted. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, they do not feel much of a recovery here. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, this has been really a very slow going

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Speaker 1: for the middle class, not just during this recovery, but

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Speaker 1: over the last ten or twenty years. And I think

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Speaker 1: you're seeing that in evidence and who people are supporting.

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Speaker 1: They feel like the establishment, both Republican and Democrat, have

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Speaker 1: really kind of left them behind. Well very quickly, you're

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Speaker 1: Scott Brown, was Mario drags work yesterday not less about economics,

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Speaker 1: but was there a tinge of politics to it as well?

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Speaker 1: I didn't get that sense at all. I think. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, the the ECB had disappointed investors in December

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Speaker 1: bright not not doing enough. Uh, and then yesterday they

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Speaker 1: they pulled out not just a bazooka, but all the

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Speaker 1: bazookas and fired them all off at once. But the

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Speaker 1: ironic thing is Droggy ended up snatching defeat from the

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Speaker 1: jaws of victory by you know, hinting that you know,

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Speaker 1: they're very unlikely to do much more right away. I

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Speaker 1: think the markets have kind of you know, geared to

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Speaker 1: this sort of you know, opiate of easier monetary policy,

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Speaker 1: and and if they don't get it, they're going to

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Speaker 1: go through withdrawals. Scot drown with us with Raymond James.

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Speaker 1: Love to have him on. He took his degree at

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Speaker 1: San Diego under the Laureate's angle and Granger. That is

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Speaker 1: really cool. Scott Brown will continue with us. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's check in with like a bar and get the

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Speaker 1: latest world of national headlines. Michael Fie, Tom, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. Nancy Reagan's two children will give remarks at

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Speaker 1: today's funeral for the former First Lady. Nancy Reagan will

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Speaker 1: be buried at the Renald Reagan Presidential Library and Simi Valley, California,

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Speaker 1: next to her husband. Four of the five living former

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Speaker 1: First Ladies will also attend today's funeral. It was a

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Speaker 1: civil debate among Republican presidential candidates last night. Free of

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Speaker 1: insults and shouting, the candidates discussed several issues, including social

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Speaker 1: security and Muslims. This morning, Marco Rubio towed ABC News

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump nomination is not guaranteed. Additionally, if anybody

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Speaker 1: else would be in the position that Donald is in,

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Speaker 1: everyone would be out there telling the rest of us

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Speaker 1: you need to get out and rally around him. It's

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Speaker 1: not happening for one simple reason. The majority, almost two

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Speaker 1: thirds of Republicans do not want Donald Trump to be

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Speaker 1: our nominate. One of the busiest rail systems in the

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Speaker 1: nation could come to a grinding hold the weekend strike

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Speaker 1: deadline looms with New Jersey Transit union workers. Union leaders

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Speaker 1: and New Jersey Transit have been meeting hoping to avert

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Speaker 1: a strike early Sunday morning. Issues on the table include

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Speaker 1: wages and healthcare. Union workers have been without a contract

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Speaker 1: for almost five years. A strike means major commuting problems

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Speaker 1: in and out of New York City. Traffic experts say

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Speaker 1: a strike could mean backups of twenty miles or more

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Speaker 1: at the already busy Lincoln and Holland Tunnels. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our two nd

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Speaker 1: journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from

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Speaker 1: around the world at Michael bar Mike Tom, Thank you, Michael,

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Speaker 1: Time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports update with John

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Speaker 1: Stasha Thanks Mike to find out Sunday the n C

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Speaker 1: Double A tournament field. The New York area should be

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Speaker 1: well represented with Iona and Fairley. Dickinson already assured us

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Speaker 1: Bot Stony Brook can gain entry for the first time

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Speaker 1: ever were the win at home tomorrow over Vermont. The

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Speaker 1: America East Final starts at eleven in the morning. Monument

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Speaker 1: may get in a large bid and Seaton Hall will

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Speaker 1: almost certainly get one of The Fires just beat Craton

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Speaker 1: seventy three Big EAS quarterfinals at the Garden. They'll play

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Speaker 1: saved for tonight. Fordham lost to Richmond seventy to fifty

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Speaker 1: five at the Atlantic ten Attorney in Brooklyn, and Ructors

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Speaker 1: just won seven and twenty five and inspired coach Katie

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Speaker 1: Jordan's Hockey Devils won three. Noting at San Jose to

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Speaker 1: shout out for Keith Kincaid NBA the last ever meeting

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Speaker 1: between Kobe Bryant and Lebron James. Kobe actually outscored Lebron

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Speaker 1: the Thecabs People Lakers won to one oh eight. There

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Speaker 1: has not been in NBA finals without Kobe or Lebron

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Speaker 1: since two thousands six, so all this Chapman will be

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Speaker 1: in the season suspended, but he can pitch in spring training.

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Speaker 1: Made his Yankee debut, got two outs, but walked to

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Speaker 1: and hit two Noah Synder guard sharp for the Mets

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Speaker 1: to scorelessis The Jets have added another running back, Kyrie Robinson,

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Speaker 1: who broke his leg last season in New Orleans. They

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Speaker 1: also resigned Bilal Powell, who came on strong at the

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Speaker 1: end of other new Giant linebacker Enan Robinson signed away

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Speaker 1: from Washington with the Boomberg NBC Sports Up Day. I'm

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Speaker 1: John Johnny was great walk to two shades of Bull

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Speaker 1: Durham there yesterday in spring training. I believe they probably

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Speaker 1: had a conversation after the mountain. It's spring training. It's spring.

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Speaker 1: It's been lovely in New York. You know. It's the

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Speaker 1: average temperature in March. I looked it up as forty

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Speaker 1: eight degrees, and we're doing better than that. The Russian

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Speaker 1: ruble just broke seventy It is sixty nine point eight two.

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Speaker 1: The Russian ruble has appreciated fifteen point five rounded to

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Speaker 1: fifteen percent. Mr Putin feeling a little bit wealthier on

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Speaker 1: this Friday morning. Futures Up sixteen Stay with us, Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee and Tom King with Scott Brown and Raymond James

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance has brought to you by Flushing Bank.

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