1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast Better than Most, Better than Most, 2 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Better than most, winn trick your down. 3 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 2: For you got real talent, don't concentrate on golf. 4 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is the Best 5 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 3: Bets episode for the one hundred and fifty third Open 6 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 3: Championship teeing off this week at Royal Port Rush on 7 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 3: the windy shores of the North Atlantic in Northern Ireland. 8 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 3: This is just the third time that the Open has 9 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 3: been played outside of Great Britain and as our guest 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 3: today will explain, it is a unique links course that 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 3: will chew up and spit out the field this week. 12 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 3: I'm your host, Mike Calvaries, and today, as I mentioned, 13 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 3: I am joined by two brilliant minds in the golf 14 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 3: betting space. First up, returning to the show our golf 15 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 3: betting expert, two time Fantasy Sports Raider Association Golf Raider 16 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 3: of the Year and senior PGA analysts at Rotoballer. Follow 17 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 3: him over at t Offspot Swartz. Welcome back to the show, 18 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 3: Spencer agg Year. 19 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael, appreciate you having me on today. I 20 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: always enjoy doing this with Kyle. I feel like we've 21 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: had a lot of great episodes. We've been in lockstep, 22 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: We've talked about it. I'm not going to make any promises. 23 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: I don't know where Kyle's at with his card so 24 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: far this week, but I feel like I've gone a 25 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,960 Speaker 1: little bit of rogue with what a lot of people 26 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: have done, so we might have some unique takes here. 27 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 3: Today we'll be consulting Spencer's model, hoping to deliver the 28 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 3: best edges that he's seeing this week at Royal Port Rush. 29 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 3: We're also joined by my Rodo Grinder's colleague. He's one 30 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 3: of the foremost data modelers and really in the entire 31 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 3: world of golf. So when it comes to crunching down 32 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,839 Speaker 3: on the numbers and taking out some of those gut 33 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 3: feelings and just going by what the stats are saying, 34 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 3: Kyle Murray is the man to do it. You can 35 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,559 Speaker 3: follow him over at kmer DFS over on X Kyle, 36 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 3: How you doing. 37 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 2: Brother, Yeah, I'm doing good. 38 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 4: It's been a great past three four weeks of outright betting, 39 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:57,919 Speaker 4: so if we can keep that going with this final 40 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 4: major of the year, it's always a fun time. I'm 41 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,559 Speaker 4: to get on here and talk about the upcoming major 42 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 4: with you guys. I'm looking forward to it, and hopefully 43 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 4: we can find another winner this week. 44 00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 3: Before we dive into who will hoist the Claric Jug 45 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 3: at the end of the week, could you just set 46 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,600 Speaker 3: the stage for our audience, maybe some people who aren't 47 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 3: regularly betting on golf, or aren't tuned into every single 48 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: tournament leading up to the Majors, what specifically makes the 49 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 3: Open Championship a difficult event to handicap or to model. 50 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 3: I'll start with you first, Kyle. 51 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think you know, if anyone's been 52 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 4: tuning into the Major Championship episodes over the course this year, 53 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 4: outside of the Augusta one, the new course is always 54 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 4: a fun little way to add a wrinkle into this. 55 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 2: These sorts of events. 56 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 4: Obviously we saw this course last in twenty nineteen, but 57 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 4: in terms of adding that wrinkle into modeling, I think 58 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 4: that will also bring in a new fun layer. But 59 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 4: I think the biggest thing for especially the Open Championship, obviously, 60 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 4: you know, being a coastal environment of links sort of 61 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 4: course set up here, I think it's going to be 62 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 4: it's going to come down to weather a ton and 63 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,040 Speaker 4: to be transparent. That's usually a spot where my model 64 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 4: has a little bit more difficulty in terms of predicting 65 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 4: the event, and therefore I need to use some outlying 66 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 4: stats of guys how they perform in these weather conditions, 67 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 4: and obviously, especially in environment like this where the winds 68 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 4: can change so quickly and frequently, it's going to bring 69 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 4: a whole new wrinkle into being able to predict who 70 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 4: can play well and who's expected to have a strong 71 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 4: baseline here. So I think that's probably the biggest wrinkle 72 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 4: in the biggest predictor within this sort of championship event. 73 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:33,639 Speaker 4: I think obviously doing this fairly early on Tuesday, there's 74 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 4: a fairly good chance we're going to see some weather 75 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 4: forecast change leading up to the time these guys are 76 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,160 Speaker 4: actually teeing off, so keep that in mind as well. 77 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 4: I would probably stay up to date on Twitter or whatnot, 78 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 4: maybe some of our plays and some of our picks. 79 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 4: But I think that's probably the biggest wrinkle for me 80 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: and my model coming into this week and just kind 81 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 4: of figuring out first what the weather is going to 82 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 4: look like, if it's going to be an impact, if 83 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 4: there's going. 84 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: To be a wave advantage. 85 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 4: Obviously that could also be thrown out the window if 86 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 4: there's any sort of rain delay. But first of all, 87 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 4: that's kind of the first step in terms of finding 88 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 4: out where that weather's going to be, and then next 89 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 4: finding out guys who might have an advantage in whatever 90 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 4: kind of weather conditions we're expecting to look. 91 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 3: At philosophically, Spencer, how do you respond to an events 92 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 3: that potentially the weather could be different when you're teeing 93 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 3: off in the morning to just ninety minutes later. Does 94 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 3: that make you change how you attack an event like this, 95 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 3: perhaps taking you some money out of the pre tournament 96 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,359 Speaker 3: basket and putting into that live vetting strategy. 97 00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 1: I think Kyle kind of hit it on the head. 98 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: I mean, any time that you get one of these 99 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: European Link style courses, the volatile weather is always going 100 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: to be what makes it most difficult. The other thing 101 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: I do want to add to that that I found 102 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: or I always find problems within these major championships. We've 103 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: talked about it on the first three shows. It's going 104 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: to be no different here. You know, there are sites 105 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: out there that have information for the live golfers, but 106 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: you get these really small pockets of data. You know 107 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: a lot of it is going to make this building process, 108 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: it's more difficult. So I think when you have the 109 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: weather and then just these live golfers that get thrown 110 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: into the mix, to me, that is the most difficult 111 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 1: part of the handicapping process. As far as the weather 112 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: is concerned, it's a difficult one. Like Kyle talked about, 113 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: the biggest concern with it is is we could look 114 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,760 Speaker 1: at the weather report and for DFS contests and things 115 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: of that nature. I would wait as long as you 116 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,119 Speaker 1: could to actually work in a player pool and figure 117 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,040 Speaker 1: out where you want to land. But the weather changes 118 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: so quickly on coastal courses that at any given time 119 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: you might think you have a weather edge. All of 120 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: a sudden, Kyle talked about it, rain comes into play, 121 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: there's a delay that happens. We've seen that happen numerous times. 122 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 1: So it did change the outlook of how I built 123 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: my card this week. And when we talk about outrights, 124 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: we'll get into the path that I decided to go 125 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: with it, and maybe to me that's where I went 126 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: a little bit different than what a lot of people 127 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 1: maybe talking about. Like I said, I'm curious to hear 128 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: what Kyle has to say. I know he's been on 129 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: a roll right now, so if any of his luck 130 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: can rub off on me, I would be very glad 131 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: to have that. But you know, it's a challenging course. 132 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,160 Speaker 1: That's a modernized link style venue and it is going 133 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: to eat people up. As you guys have said, it's 134 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: you have internal out of bounds, you have gorse grass, 135 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:17,599 Speaker 1: you have bunkers that come into play. There are undulated 136 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 1: greens in a very slow fescue surface where you have 137 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:22,479 Speaker 1: to be a good approach putter, you have to have 138 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: an all around game. It really tests every single club 139 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:25,159 Speaker 1: in your bag. 140 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,679 Speaker 3: As we've done for the other majors thus far this season, 141 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 3: we're going to start with the high end golfers, you know, 142 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:33,679 Speaker 3: the top ten in the market right now in terms 143 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 3: of odds that you would like to, you know, at 144 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 3: least put a little bit of capital behind and make 145 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 3: an investment before the tournament starts. But a quick aside 146 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 3: just to kind of give some perspective on the wild 147 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 3: outcomes that this course produces. Rory McElroy famously shot a 148 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: sixty one on this course at just sixteen years old, 149 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 3: only to come back on the exact same course in 150 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 3: twenty nineteen and shoot an eight on number one later 151 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 3: missing the cut. So it just shows you you can 152 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 3: be dominant on this course one day and then all 153 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,679 Speaker 3: of a sudden turnarounds and you have some serious issues 154 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 3: with ob getting out of those pot bunkers. The contours 155 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 3: of the fairway. That Spencer was just referring to the 156 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 3: humps and how those the pot bunkers they can create 157 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 3: doubles and triples that can ruin around and potentially ruin 158 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 3: your entire tournament in a single hole. Even the greens 159 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 3: are unique in that so many are surrounded by the dunes. 160 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 3: You have blind shots, you have slopes that are unforgiving. 161 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 3: With all that being said, let's start at the very 162 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 3: top of the odds board. You got Scotty at nine 163 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 3: to two, Rory at seven to one, Ram at twelve 164 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 3: to one. Of those three, are you interested in buying 165 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 3: any pre tournament, Kyle, or is there someone else within 166 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 3: the top ten right now that you view as the 167 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 3: best value. 168 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's been tough kind of to decipher where I'm 169 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 4: at in terms of these top three options right now. 170 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 4: No current outright bets on any of these top three guys, 171 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 4: which is fairly scary for me in a Major. Obviously, 172 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 4: John Rom's been the guy that I've been backing in 173 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 4: previous Majors, and he's performed well to top ten finishes 174 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 4: in those last two and I do like him again here. 175 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 4: But in terms of just trying to find the best value, 176 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 4: I think I'm gonna be going a little bit further 177 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 4: down the board. The first guy that I'm looking at 178 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 4: inside this top ten is actually gonna be Xander Shoffley. 179 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 4: I bet him last week at around twenty to one, 180 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 4: and it's just I think a spot where there's some 181 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 4: natural value on the guy Alexander who I think that 182 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 4: when he is at his peak, I think he's fairly 183 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 4: worthy of being back in this top tier. 184 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 2: With some of these guys. 185 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 4: Obviously, I do think he would be fourth, maybe competing 186 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 4: with Bryson in that sort of tier one be there. 187 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,520 Speaker 4: But in terms of you know, when you look at 188 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 4: Xander's profile, obviously, coming off of the off season injury 189 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 4: last year, there was clearly rust. Right coming into this season, 190 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 4: he's definitely been battling that. Like I mentioned, I backed 191 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 4: him last week finished T eight at the Scottish Open, 192 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 4: but he played really well, he just couldn't really get 193 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 4: anything going with the putter. He actually led the field 194 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 4: in stroskyin out approach, which I think is going to 195 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 4: be very very important, especially for him and seeing that 196 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,319 Speaker 4: sort of come into form for a guy Lexander who 197 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 4: has been so great with his irons over the course 198 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,960 Speaker 4: of the last two three years, So when it comes 199 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 4: down to it at twenty five to one here for Center, 200 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 4: he's just simply fallen out of this top tier. And 201 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 4: again if he can find that peak again of form, 202 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 4: I do think he's worthy of being, you know, a 203 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 4: guy who's twelve thirteen, fourteen to one in a major 204 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 4: championship obviously won this event last year a different course, 205 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 4: so not necessarily comparing that, but we know that he is, 206 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 4: you know, he has the ability to win a major championship, 207 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 4: especially when he's in form. And I think where I 208 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 4: saw last week was very positive, especially considering iron play 209 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 4: is the one concern that I really had for him 210 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 4: in terms of being in that top form. So to 211 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 4: see him go out there and lead a pretty strong 212 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 4: field in that category was extremely encouraging for me. Over 213 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 4: the last year, he ranks fourth and strokes gained approach. 214 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 4: He's also ranks tenth and total strokes gained tea Green, 215 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 4: So when you look at some of the course success 216 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 4: that he's had on coastal and links courses, I'm taking 217 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 4: a little bit of more looks at coastal courses as 218 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 4: well for this event. Obviously with it being up at 219 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 4: the you know, the coastal part of Northern Ireland, I 220 00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 4: think that's actually going to be a spot to maybe 221 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 4: just enhance your sample a little bit. But when you 222 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 4: look at those two course environments over the last couple 223 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 4: of years, Xander rank second, just behind Scotty in total 224 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 4: strokes gained. So I think it's a great fit for Xander, 225 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 4: and I do think that it's a spot where there's 226 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 4: some natural value just because of obviously the market being 227 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 4: so heavy on these top three guys and rightfully so 228 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 4: no doubt about that, but also the fact that Xander 229 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 4: has just had a little bit of rust on him. 230 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 2: But I do I do want to be early on 231 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 2: Xander because. 232 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 4: I do see him rouning in the form, especially with 233 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 4: that strongwey that he had last week. 234 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,080 Speaker 3: Before we get into the elite golfers that you're backing here, Spencer, 235 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 3: let's talk about the favorite in this tournament. Scottie Shuffler. 236 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 3: Just two months ago he was getting priced in the 237 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 3: neighborhood of the elitees Tiger Woods Prime era, where he 238 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,599 Speaker 3: was going off at minus two hundreds, minus three hundreds, 239 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 3: or excuse me, at plus three hundreds. What's interesting is 240 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 3: he's come back down to earth a little bit, but 241 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 3: he's still obviously the prohibitive favorite here. Do you see 242 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 3: any value now that it's creeping closer to five to 243 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 3: one or is he still a golfer where you know, 244 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 3: with the sample size and what you potentially could get 245 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 3: in a live betting opportunity if he gets off to 246 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 3: a slow start, that's preferable as opposed to tying up 247 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 3: your money for seventy two holes at such a short number. 248 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: I'm gonna give a wild answer that I normally don't 249 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: come on shows and say, if you look at Scotty 250 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,160 Speaker 1: Scheffler's price, and the problem is, I understand you're tying 251 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: up money pre tournament if you bet him, But the 252 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: problem is is even if he starts slowly, books whether 253 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: it's him or Rory. We even saw it with Rory 254 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 1: entering Sunday at the Genesis Scottish Open. Rory was the 255 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,719 Speaker 1: favorite to win it entering that final day. But when 256 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: you look at the actual pricing, my model had him 257 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,959 Speaker 1: at about thirty six percent to win. If you look 258 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 1: at what the pricing was, he was about forty five 259 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,680 Speaker 1: to forty seven percent at most places. So you're never 260 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 1: gonna get what is a fair value what should be 261 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: deemed to be a fair value on those guys. So 262 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 1: for me with Scotty, it's one of those spots that 263 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: I've seen it drift even closer to six at some 264 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: spots out there to one on Scotty. I do think 265 00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: that you can consider that. Like there were three routes 266 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: that I considered here, Kyle talked about the first one 267 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 1: with John Rahm twelve to one. I think that's something 268 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: that you can consider Scotty Shuffler, is that five and 269 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: a half six to one range a little bit more 270 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: tangible to enter this week. And then the third route 271 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 1: for me is did I want to do which is 272 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 1: what I ended up doing. Did I want to stack 273 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: what ended up being a five to six man card, 274 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: try to take on the favorites this week, just to 275 00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,439 Speaker 1: very quickly touch on the ROM and Scotty route with it, 276 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 1: I's bypassed the ROM route I just thought twelve to 277 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: one was a little bit too short. I think Kyle 278 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: kind of hit it on the head there where value 279 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 1: is value, and I'm not so sure at twelve to one, 280 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:46,600 Speaker 1: whether he wins or doesn't win, that there's actually value 281 00:12:46,600 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: at that number. He's likely very close to winning. Again, 282 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: We've seen that evidence by his outperformance. When you just 283 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: compare him with some of the strokes gaining data to 284 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: live golfers over the last two months, he's nearly a 285 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: shot better in my projection there, I just found concerns 286 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,720 Speaker 1: backing Rom when he hasn't won in nearly a year 287 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: like this is obviously a spot where he can turn 288 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: it around. But when we're looking from a value answer, 289 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: if my model thinks Scotty at five and a half 290 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: six to one is better value than Rom, I really 291 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 1: don't want to tie up an entire card with Rom 292 00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 1: being my solo choice there. I've talked about this numerous 293 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 1: times on action shows. I don't have a ton of 294 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 1: exposure for these tournaments in the outright market. I like 295 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: to get my exposure elsewhere. I usually put in we 296 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: all do units different the way that we spread it out, 297 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: but I usually have about a half unit to six 298 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: tenths of a unit that I put into an outright 299 00:13:35,480 --> 00:13:38,319 Speaker 1: card a week. So you know, for me specifically, if 300 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: I bet John Ram, that's my entire week. I'm not 301 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: adding anybody else. Scotty would probably be a little bit 302 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 1: lower of a bet if I would have gone that 303 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: route with it. But I decided, as I said, to 304 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 1: go in this route where I wanted to take two 305 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:53,360 Speaker 1: of the names in the thirty to forty range, two 306 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 1: in the sixty to eighty, and then two long shots. 307 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: I like the Xander call that Kyle talked about. I 308 00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: consider that myself. One of the things that I always 309 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: run is I run the baseline statistics, so it takes 310 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: the actual ball striking of the tournament. It then merges 311 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 1: in some of the baseline short game stats that you 312 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: should expect for them. Xander entered Sunday at the Scottish 313 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,120 Speaker 1: Open is the number one projected scorer on the board. 314 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: I think we've seen that from Xander quite a bit 315 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 1: this year. He has not been able to put all 316 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: the pieces together to actually compete on it. I did 317 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 1: consider it, but I ended up going with Ludwig Oberd 318 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: at thirty to one. You know, I'm under this belief. 319 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: I've said this quite frequently. We aren't going to go 320 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 1: forever without ober being a major champion, winless draught of 321 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: what this is. I know he's only twenty five, but 322 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: I think the question becomes, what is the best venue 323 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: for him to capture his first Grand Slam title. The 324 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: natural answer, you're not going to necessarily get pushed back 325 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: from me of what his best course is will be 326 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 1: a gusta. We've seen that with back to back top 327 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 1: ten finishes there. But I thought for all the difficulty 328 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: that Royal Portruss presented, it had enough birdie naking ptent 329 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: that a lot of the statistics inside my model outweighed 330 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: some of those flaws that Oberg seems to have in 331 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: navigating mistakes. My model ranked him first in this field 332 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: from two hundred plus yards for proximity. He was second 333 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: in this field for weighted off the tee performance. And 334 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: I think it might be that combination that ends up 335 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: proving to be the ultimate weapon for him. Because of 336 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: this high end approach putting that I talked about, You're 337 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: gonna get a lot of putts here from thirty plus feet. 338 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: So he's one of the best approach players from the 339 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: proximity numbers. I'm looking for. If he's one of the 340 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: best drivers and he's able to avoid some of those 341 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: mistakes that we know are going to come into play 342 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: because of his putting, I think this is a very 343 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: desirable location for him on a number that seems to 344 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 1: be drifting on him after you. For honestly, my first 345 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: two choices here names that everybody seemed to want to 346 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: back last week, not as bullish. It doesn't feel like 347 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: that the public is this go around. And with that 348 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 1: in mind, I took Robert McIntyre at forty to one. 349 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: I did not bet him last week. I know that 350 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: performance was a very big disappointment for most You finished 351 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: sixty fifth, as when you're one of the biggest. I 352 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: thought he was a fringe value. I don't know if 353 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: it was necessarily the price I wanted to be, but 354 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: when you're one of the golfers where sharp money did 355 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 1: hit him like there's there's no doubt about that last week, 356 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden nobody's on him. I 357 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: don't think that this is a price that is too short, 358 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: like a lot of people seem to think it is. 359 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: You could make that argument when it opened at that 360 00:16:24,120 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: twenty five to twenty eight to one mark. But I 361 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: think as this continues to drift to forty and higher, 362 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,720 Speaker 1: MacIntyre becomes really intriguing. I talked about the stats for 363 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 1: Oberg McIntyre possesses a lot of the similar answers that 364 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: I'm looking for there. He's also second in my model 365 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: for scrambling from the rough, he's third and way to 366 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: strokes getting total when I geared it towards port rush, 367 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: seventh and overall weighted scrambling and then the high end 368 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: marks that I didn't talk about this a lot when 369 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 1: I was talking about my model, but and even Kyle 370 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: mentioned like that there's a lot of weird stats that 371 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: get put into play this week, like it is not 372 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: as convention of a build as I normally would do. 373 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: I looked at reduce hang time off the tee. I 374 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,360 Speaker 1: didn't want golfers that were going to get their ball 375 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 1: caught up in the wind. I looked at expected approach 376 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: play in nastier conditions. Those were a lot of the 377 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 1: reasons why MacIntyre has found success in the passing. When 378 00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: you look at it from a statistical perspective, it's all 379 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,120 Speaker 1: the same areas that are popping for him this week. 380 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: So you know, I don't even know how aggressive you 381 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 1: need to be in getting this in. As soon as 382 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 1: you listen to it, I think this number is going 383 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: to continue drifting. And if you can tell me that 384 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: this is going to get forty plus, I think MacIntyre 385 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: is an interesting value there. 386 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 3: As we turn to the mid tier and long shot 387 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 3: golfers that you like to overperform this week, I'll start 388 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 3: with you first, Kyle, in terms of the golfers that 389 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 3: you're targeting in two main buckets. Are you someone who 390 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 3: prefers an elite scrambler like a Hideki Matsiama or Tommy Fleetwood, 391 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 3: or you rather, given the course conditions to target someone 392 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 3: inside the top ten in greens and regulation, like a 393 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 3: Patrick Cantley or a Cepstraca. 394 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. 395 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 4: I feel bad because I feel like you asked this 396 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 4: question at the US Open and I kind of just 397 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:02,919 Speaker 4: said that all around golfers are typically the guys that 398 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 4: are going to stand out, and I do still agree 399 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 4: with that here, but I am giving a little bit 400 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 4: of an edge to approach players here, and that's mainly 401 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 4: because I find that a lot of these top approach 402 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 4: players that I'm looking at this week are also guys 403 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 4: who just perform well in the wind, and that kind 404 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 4: of goes hand in hand. 405 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 2: At times. 406 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 4: It's not always a clear cut correlation there with guys 407 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 4: who perform well in the wind and guys who are 408 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 4: strong on approach, but a lot of times these guys 409 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 4: do line up. 410 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 2: So I think that's a huge point here. 411 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 4: And I do think that guys who are going to 412 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,200 Speaker 4: be able to prevent themselves from being put into bad 413 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 4: positions based on either their experience in the wind their 414 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 4: ability to keep the ball low shape different shots, I 415 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 4: think will go a long way. Those typically happen to 416 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 4: be the best ball strikers. So I am going to 417 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 4: give a slight advantage here to some of these top 418 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 4: end ball strikers, especially guys on approach here and the 419 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,680 Speaker 4: guys who are going to consistently hit greens and regulation. 420 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 2: But then that kind of goes back to a couple 421 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:53,520 Speaker 2: of these spots here. 422 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 4: I know I mentioned Xander as like the top end 423 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 4: guy for me, and maybe I mistakenly forgot to leave 424 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,760 Speaker 4: maybe I'm mistaking he left some guys out of those 425 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 4: ranges there, But I also do have a bet out 426 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 4: out there on Tommy Fleetwood as well, who I do 427 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 4: think is a guy who can definitely scramble as well 428 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 4: as be a guy who can outperform the field on approach. 429 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 2: So he's another top end play that I have. 430 00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 4: But in terms of some of these mid range guys 431 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 4: that I'm looking at, the first guy that I'm finding 432 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,199 Speaker 4: myself clicking on this week in the mid range is 433 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 4: Sepstraka here at fifty to one. He's a guy who 434 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,159 Speaker 4: I do think is going to be a guy who 435 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 4: can consistently contend in major championships and eventually win one. Obviously, 436 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 4: he's had some really strong form. He has two top 437 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,160 Speaker 4: seven finishes over his last four starts. He is kind 438 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,160 Speaker 4: of a risk reward type player. Like when we see 439 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 4: him on He's really able to contend and compete, but 440 00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 4: he also has some miscut upside in his bag as well. 441 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:46,480 Speaker 2: When looking at. 442 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 4: Some of the condition filters that I've been looking at 443 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 4: again back to that true that Coastal style and Links 444 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 4: style play. He's a guy who ranks in the top 445 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 4: ten and total strokes gained in those conditions over the 446 00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 4: last two years. Another guy who all also performs well 447 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 4: in mid to extreme wins, so substract, I do think 448 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 4: is more than capable of handling some conditions that might 449 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 4: arise here. He's also very accurate ball striker as well. 450 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 4: He ranks sixth in accuracy off the tee and he's 451 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 4: fifth in terms of stroke skating out approach over the 452 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 4: last six months, so he kind of checks a lot 453 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 4: of those boxes. He has shown some struggles with the 454 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 4: short game as well, breaking outside the top one hundred 455 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 4: over the last year, but he is back inside the 456 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 4: top seventy over the last six months, so we have 457 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 4: seen some slight improvements there, but it could be a 458 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 4: spot where he could find himself getting in some trouble 459 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 4: if he's not hitting greens frequently. But again, I do 460 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,439 Speaker 4: feel confident that he's going to be able to avoid 461 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 4: some of these big scores because he does hit lots 462 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 4: of greens. Ranks fourteenth over the last year in greens 463 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 4: and regulation tenth and bogie avoidance in this field, so 464 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 4: he checks a lot of these boxes in terms of 465 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 4: being a safer option a guy who can avoid some 466 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 4: of these big scores. So he's probably gonna be a 467 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 4: guy who finds himself contending in this event if it's 468 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 4: one that is a nastier condition type event where the 469 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 4: scores a little bit lower. 470 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 2: But I'm more than. 471 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 4: Happy to throw about there on Sepstraka at fifty to 472 00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 4: one kind of and potentially, honestly just hope for some 473 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 4: mayhem right, hope for the scores to be a little 474 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 4: lower than maybe some of the average watchers might want 475 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 4: to see. But I do think that's a spot where 476 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 4: I got accept Straka with flourish Spencer. 477 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 3: When it comes to these mid tier and long shot candidates, 478 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,520 Speaker 3: obviously you need to take a leap of faith in 479 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 3: one way or another, and sometimes it can be can 480 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 3: they elevate and put it all together for four consecutive 481 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 3: rounds that consistency question or placing aside the recency bias 482 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 3: of maybe they're not playing their best golf in the 483 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,439 Speaker 3: last two to three weeks, and you just have to 484 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 3: trust your model and where they are on a year 485 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 3: round basis as opposed to what they've been in let's 486 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,879 Speaker 3: call it the last six to eight rounds of golf 487 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 3: that they played. Which one is more difficult for you 488 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 3: to get over and who are you targeting in this range? 489 00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: I think in the outright market, you always need to 490 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: be shooting for upside. I feel like that's one of 491 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 1: the biggest mistakes that ends up occurring in the space 492 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 1: where people are a little too results oriented in a 493 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 1: short term perspective with it. They you know, you have 494 00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:15,639 Speaker 1: to understand that when a guy has been performing well, 495 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: books also are aware of that, and they are very 496 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: quick to move numbers in those spots, and I think 497 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: that's sometimes lost in translation as bets get made in 498 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: the space. And you know, I run things from a 499 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 1: very long term perspective. I've always come on with you, 500 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: Michael and always told you like I'm running it from 501 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: a longer term perspective. I would say the ninety nine 502 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: percent of people in the space, and there are some 503 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: downsides that come into play. It's not a perfect exact science, 504 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 1: and you know, I'll always run the shorter term data 505 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 1: just to see where things land with it. But the 506 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 1: way I ended up looking at this is I thought 507 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 1: there were prices on golfers where there is a narrative 508 00:22:56,000 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: built around them that either one they cannot win a 509 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: major championship, two they are not a golfer that theoretically 510 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:07,919 Speaker 1: should perform well in Europe, even though the data says otherwise, 511 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: or three it may be a golfer that just doesn't 512 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: have enough major championship experience. And then those numbers were 513 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 1: a little heightened to start the week. So you know 514 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: I mentioned this a second ago. There are four additional 515 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 1: names that I had on my card the next option 516 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: as far as the price was and I don't think 517 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: very many people are going to back him. This is 518 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: one of the spots where I've kind of put my 519 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 1: feet into this sand in and seemed to be digging 520 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,400 Speaker 1: in on this play here. I like justin Thomas at 521 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: sixty to one. I said this last week at the 522 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 1: Scottish Open. This narrative around him has likely been overblown 523 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: of what we see in Europe. What when you look 524 00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: at what derails Simon. This is not a perfect exact 525 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 1: science and not a perfect exact answer I'm about to give. 526 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: But the two items that derail him most would be one, 527 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 1: courses that punish wayward drives. We do know that Rush 528 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: is going to do that, so that is a negative 529 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: to throw into the Thomas bucket. But the second thing, 530 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,439 Speaker 1: when we look at the off the te data is 531 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: courses that demand what I would call complete sends off 532 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 1: the tee where you have to be extremely aggressive, but 533 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: that challenging scoring and the thick rough for the internal 534 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: lot of bounds, Like, I don't think Thomas has to 535 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,680 Speaker 1: send driver every single time in these spots. When you 536 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 1: look at him from a statistical perspective, yes, the driver 537 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: is what gets him in problem and he's gonna be 538 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: a boom or bust choice and it's gonna come down 539 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 1: to how wide his misses end up being, and if 540 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,199 Speaker 1: they're very wide, that's gonna be his undoing. But we 541 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: have seen at locations like TPC Sawgrass in the past, 542 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 1: he clubs down, he hits these little low stingers, he 543 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 1: finds a fairway Open Championships are we'll see where the 544 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: there's some rain in the forecast, but I still think 545 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 1: this is going to be pretty firm on the fairways 546 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,160 Speaker 1: at least where you're gonna get some role out there. 547 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,439 Speaker 1: So my little ballf numbers liked him. I think he 548 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: can generate a lot of rollout extra distance from that 549 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: nature of it. And when we saw him play this 550 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: course in twenty nineteen, like everybody wants to cherry pick 551 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: all the bad that he has. When he's entered over 552 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 1: into Europe, this is of course he came top ten 553 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 1: and when he played it, and it was a pretty 554 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: challenging venue that year. I'm hoping that, you know, maybe 555 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,680 Speaker 1: the opposite of what Kyle said to where a guy 556 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 1: like Straka, if you ramp up the conditions and you 557 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: make it more difficult, a guy like Straka gets better. 558 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,119 Speaker 1: I'm hoping that if the reverse of this happens and 559 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: this ends up becoming a little bit easier, kind of 560 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: with the same thing I said with Obert, all of 561 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,119 Speaker 1: a sudden, the guy like Thomas can work himself up 562 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: the leader board. These par four locations are extremely difficult. 563 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: You're gonna have to salvage scores there. Thomas is one 564 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 1: of the best world in the world that doing that. 565 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: He also has a short game that is as creative 566 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 1: as it comes. So it's gonna come down to the driver, 567 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: very high ceiling, very low play, not necessarily looking for 568 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 1: him in safety markets, but trying to shoot for a 569 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 1: little upside there where I took Russell Henley at eighty 570 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,679 Speaker 1: to one. That price is more in the sixties now 571 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 1: if you shop around. I tweeted this out on my 572 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,160 Speaker 1: Twitter or on X I guess it is now on Monday. 573 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: But when you take expected proximity inside my model, the 574 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 1: low ball flight that I talk about are just talked 575 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 1: about how closely you miss a fairway. That's where this 576 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: internal lot of bounds and all the gorse bushes and 577 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: all the really bad stuff comes into play. So the 578 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,719 Speaker 1: smaller you can miss, in the smaller areas that you miss, 579 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 1: the better off you are. Take expective scrambling approach, putting 580 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: there was only one golfer in my sheet that was 581 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: higher when you took all of those stats and weighed 582 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 1: them equally together. That's Scottie Scheffler. I think that being 583 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 1: able to get a sixty to one plus number on 584 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 1: Henley is a little bit of this. He's a thirty 585 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,199 Speaker 1: five plus year old golfer at this point of his 586 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,400 Speaker 1: life that has just in the mind of the public 587 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,879 Speaker 1: actually become this fringe top ten player, and I honestly, 588 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 1: I don't think people actually view him that way. It's 589 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: very easy to call him that when he's in a 590 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 1: weak field. When you throw him into some of these 591 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: more significant contests, I feel like people are very quick 592 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 1: to get off of him. This is an accurate golfer. 593 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: This is somebody that can find fairways. This is a 594 00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: quality proximity player. I would argue that was probably the 595 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: best value that I had on the board. And there's 596 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: something to be said he's a much better golfer in 597 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 1: my model than this player, but like he's the overall 598 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 1: better approach player of the shorter hitter that Brian Harmon 599 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: was a couple of years ago. And I see no 600 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: reason why Henley couldn't get himself across the finish line 601 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: this week. And then just to throw out the last 602 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 1: two long shots that I took out one hundred to 603 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 1: one plus numbers I took Andrew Novak at two hundred 604 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: and fifty to one. That's dropped more into the two 605 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 1: hundred to one range. Now, that's kind of what you 606 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 1: were talking about, Michael. We saw him bounce back a 607 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,199 Speaker 1: little bit last week, but this was a golfer that 608 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 1: was red hot to start the year and it has 609 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 1: not been as quality of finishes up until recently. And 610 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,119 Speaker 1: I think he's starting to turn it around now. For 611 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 1: a quality scrambler, quality approach player here. And then last 612 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 1: bet I'm gonna give on here. I've seen this number 613 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 1: range between as low as eighty to one. It opened 614 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 1: as high as two hundred to one. There are local 615 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 1: Vegas shops that are still at one hundred and fifty 616 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,680 Speaker 1: to one. For the sake of this discussion, I'll call 617 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 1: it one hundred and thirty to one. I took Maverick McNeely. 618 00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 1: This is what I was talking about. When you look 619 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 1: at a lack of major championship success only telling part 620 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 1: of the story. Look at recent years. Wyndham Clark, JJ Spawn. 621 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 1: Those are two names that have bucked conventional wisdom when 622 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,640 Speaker 1: you look at capturing a title, probably much before the 623 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 1: public deemed them to be ready when you just look 624 00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 1: at their past results. I wrote about this in one 625 00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: of my articles. I think McNeely has a little bit 626 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 1: of that Windom Clark within his game, where he uses 627 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: distance and putting as his main weapons. The approach play 628 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 1: is going to have to be better than it is 629 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:59,959 Speaker 1: on most weeks. But even though there's nothing better than 630 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,120 Speaker 1: a twenty third on his resume over eleven Grand Slam event, 631 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 1: I do think we've seen him turn a corner recently. 632 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 1: Three top thirty seven finishes in the three majors this year. 633 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 1: That's going to come alongside the breakthrough victory that he 634 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: had in the fall, and then we've had a few 635 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 1: close calls from him this season, including when we were 636 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 1: in California there for a while. And I know a 637 00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 1: lot of those tournaments are going to be more geared 638 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:28,640 Speaker 1: towards his game. But fescue greens are always bumpy greens, 639 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: slow bumpy greens. Poa greens are bumpy greens. I think 640 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 1: that there's a correlation that can be made between a 641 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: tournament like Pebble Beach where he's found success to where 642 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 1: he's going. That's like American gnis link style golf in 643 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: my opinion. I know he doesn't have European link style success, 644 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,680 Speaker 1: but I think that number should have been more like 645 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 1: sixty to one. Like to me, that's a massive disparity 646 00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: when we're looking at this hundred to one plus range. 647 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 3: Figuratively speaking, we're run out daylight here in today's episode. 648 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,440 Speaker 3: So let's play ready golf speed through the rest of 649 00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 3: your card. If you have any additional plays to tag 650 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 3: on here or just philosophies that you'd like to throw 651 00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 3: out to our audience before we wrap here, go ahead. 652 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 2: Kyle. 653 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I do think it's worth that I 654 00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:16,560 Speaker 4: think out of all the majors that we've seen over 655 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 4: the course of the season. I do think the Open 656 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 4: Championship is probably the one that has brought you know, 657 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 4: long shots most into play, obviously just over the course 658 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 4: of when you look at data over the past ten 659 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 4: to twelve years of guys who have won at different majors, 660 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 4: this is the one that has kind of brought in 661 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 4: some of these guys into play a little bit more. 662 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 4: So I'll throw out, you know, five or six top 663 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 4: twenty guys that'll also throw some sprinkles on for long shots. 664 00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 4: I think it's kind of funny. I also have Novak 665 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,160 Speaker 4: and Mav in my top twenty play so love that 666 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 4: Spencer and I are on him. We were both on 667 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 4: Chris Goder up at the US Open as well, and 668 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 4: he obviously got the win last week. So maybe keep 669 00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,959 Speaker 4: an eye on Novak and Mav in future, you know, 670 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 4: smaller events if they don't come through this week. By 671 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 4: like both of those guys in the top twenty market, 672 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,000 Speaker 4: Adam Sky actually do like as a sellid outright bet, 673 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 4: as well as Jason Day and Cameron Young. Scott's at 674 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 4: plus two seventy five for the top twenty. Jason Days 675 00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 4: plus three hundred and then Cameron Young plus three twenty. 676 00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 4: Out of all those guys, Jason Day's probably my favorite 677 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 4: in this option for guys to bet outright. I do 678 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 4: think that he's a guy who's running into some strong form. 679 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 4: He's competed at some of these stronger fields events over 680 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,520 Speaker 4: the past month or so, so I liking Jason Day 681 00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 4: quite a bit. So I like him at top twenty 682 00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 4: plus three hundred as well. 683 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,000 Speaker 3: Anything else to add Spencer before we call it a show. 684 00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: I think Novak, McNeely, Scott are probably three of those 685 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 1: names that I'm most interested in my model. Also like 686 00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,920 Speaker 1: Jason Day quite a bit. This week the other play 687 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 1: author out there, and unfortunately it has seen some line movement. 688 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 1: If you look at an Aaron Rye over like a 689 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 1: Rasmus Hoyguard out there, depending on what you can get 690 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 1: it at. I think ry fits a lot of those 691 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,320 Speaker 1: intangibles that I talked about with Henley. Not quite the 692 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:56,520 Speaker 1: same level of approach play that you're going to get 693 00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 1: from Henley, but a golfer at the end of the 694 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:01,600 Speaker 1: day that's going to find a fairways. And I talked 695 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 1: about wide misses being a problem. Ras miss is the 696 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,720 Speaker 1: king of that of the wide misses, so I think 697 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: that that is a value play to consider there. 698 00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 3: All right, well, I appreciate your time as always, guys, 699 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 3: we can hit the clubhouse now that we have a 700 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 3: full card and plenty of action to get us through 701 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,440 Speaker 3: the four days at Royal Port Rush there in Northern Ireland, 702 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,960 Speaker 3: the British Open, the Open Championship one of the best 703 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 3: events in all of sports, an absolute jewel on the 704 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,720 Speaker 3: calendar for PGA golf and golf enthusiasts all across the world. 705 00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,560 Speaker 3: So looking forward to watching this alongside you guys this week. 706 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:38,040 Speaker 3: For Spencer Aggiar and Kyle Murray, I'm Mike Calvaries. Thanks 707 00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 3: so much for listening to for the Best Bets episode 708 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 3: for the Open Championship at Royal Port Rush. Best of 709 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 3: luck on all your bets and we'll put you back 710 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:57,440 Speaker 3: here next time on the Action Network podcast. Action Network 711 00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:01,600 Speaker 3: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you 712 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 3: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty 713 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 3: four seven at one eight hundred Gambler