WEBVTT - Week 14 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 68) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.680 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:20.000 Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me, 0:00:20.079 --> 0:00:22.479 of course, is Matt Perrault. You can find us on 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.560 Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:30.080 the hottest NFL better that I've ever seen in my life. Matt, 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:31.640 What a week for you? Man? 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:35.080 Well, wasn't just the NFL. But yeah, I mean, you know, 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:36.839 when you get on a roll like this, you just 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:38.960 kind of ride it and you just hope that it 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.400 doesn't stop. I mean, at the time of taping, we've 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.080 hit twenty of our last twenty three bets on The 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:47.720 Daily Juice. If you got a bet late in uh 0:00:47.800 --> 0:00:50.239 during the week on Wednesday, you actually won because I 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:52.479 got a worse number than actually what went off at 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:55.720 Wisconsin under basketball play that I had at one thirty 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:58.880 eight and one thirty four thirty three different books and 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:00.800 people bet it. By the time the more and came around, 0:01:00.960 --> 0:01:03.960 the number had dropped so much that it was a 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.640 beneficiary to the to the Daily Juice audience. So really 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:09.440 it's twenty one and two for certain players out there. 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:11.759 So yeah, I mean when it's like this, I went 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:13.360 five to oh in the Circa when five to oh 0:01:13.400 --> 0:01:15.440 in the Westgate we went four and one. I mean, 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:17.480 just as it's been a crazy week. 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.400 Yeah, well, first, sorry for keeping into just the NFL, 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:22.360 but you know that's when people are here for the PA, 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:24.400 So that's why I missed that. But number two, you 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.640 saw the board so clearly last week because even one 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:30.160 of the ones that we went to, which was the Colts, 0:01:30.200 --> 0:01:32.600 like we kind of looked out in that game, you 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:34.680 were on the other side. That was it, right, right, 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:36.640 You were on the other side of that one originally. 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.360 Yeah, yeah, I wanted the Texans, and I mean it 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:41.160 very easily could have been the Texans if it wasn't 0:01:41.160 --> 0:01:43.760 for that fumble body Sean Watson. Yeah, that's the right side. 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:46.560 That was the right side. Yeah, but whatever, we'll take it. Obviously, 0:01:46.560 --> 0:01:48.920 as as you said on the Daily Juice, things even out. 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:50.960 This is the whole point of how it works. But 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:54.600 we'll break down every game this weekend. Let's recap the 0:01:54.600 --> 0:01:58.000 the DraftKings contest. As Matt said, we went four and one. 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.120 We hit on the saintslaning two and a half to 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:02.240 the Falcons. The Colts lank three and a half to 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:04.320 the Texans, as I just mentioned the Patriots are getting 0:02:04.320 --> 0:02:06.800 a half a point from the Chargers. That was not close, 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.320 the Washington football team getting eight and a half from 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:11.839 the Steelers, and we missed on the Raiders leank seven 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:13.880 and a half to the Jets. I said last week 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:15.520 on the show that I thought Matt and I needed 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:18.200 to go fourteen and one over our final three weeks. 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:20.679 Remember we have one bye week still to go. Matt 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:24.360 attacked my math as usual Maclos, and he later on 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:26.120 realized that he was wrong. So we do need to 0:02:26.200 --> 0:02:28.079 We did need to go fourteen to one to hit 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:30.880 sixty percent right now, that is still the cutoff for 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:32.600 being in the money. We went four and one, so 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:35.160 we've got to sweep. We've got to sleep right now. 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:37.160 It may not end up that way, maybe a little lower, 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:40.480 but right now, that's where it is. So let's get 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:43.120 into this right now. Matt out, what's that? Where are 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:47.320 we We're at the low two hundreds out of six 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:52.320 hundred and ninety one two top we're two hundred fifteen. 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.040 I think, oh, okay, yeah, we're there. I mean, and 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:57.320 I think the top eighty right now are getting paid 0:02:57.320 --> 0:02:59.720 because it's tied and stuff like that. So we're there. 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:02.480 We gained I don't know, one hundred spots last week 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:04.280 with a four and one. We will move up if 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:05.760 we get it, and I remember a lot of people. 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:07.880 You know. It depends on the bye weeks that are remaining. 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:09.720 We have won, so one of the next three weeks 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:11.640 could be this week. Don't know for sure. We have 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:13.440 to take one of our bye weeks. But Matt, let 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:15.519 me ask you. Because we don't talk about this other 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.080 than one pick, which we'll get to, which my guess 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:21.040 is gonna be your top pick. We don't talk about 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.680 it much. Are you loved last week? I didn't you 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:24.520 loved last week? 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:24.840 Coming in? 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:26.120 Do you love this week? Asma? 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:27.760 I don't love it. I like it, I don't love it. 0:03:28.200 --> 0:03:30.360 I'm coming around on it, but I'm in the like 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:32.840 you know, I'm in the beginning part of dating. I'm 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:35.080 not noting it yet, but I'm close. I'm coming around. 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:35.920 There are games I like. 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:38.960 Okay, well, let's talk about it now. Let's start with you. 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:41.480 And you know, there was one game that we talked about, 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:42.680 and there was a game that we had to talk 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:45.040 about because it's a game that if we'd like. By 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:46.800 the time people are listening, to this, we will have 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.200 already played and if so, we will play it on Twitter. 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:51.400 Is that your number one pick of the weekend, Matt. 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:53.880 It is, and it's it's if you listen to the 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:56.840 Daily Juice, you already have this. But I'm all over 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.400 the Rams tonight, and I think this is if you 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.560 look at the ultra of point spreads in Vegas, it's 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:03.800 ten and a half. For a reason, because I think 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:05.880 this is a ten point victory for the Rams tonight. 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:08.560 I don't think the Patriots are gonna score. I think 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:10.960 the Unders a play as well, but I think the Patriots. 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.600 I have it at twenty seven seventeen somewhere in that range, 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:16.880 twenty four to fourteen, somewhere in that range here for 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:20.279 the Rams. And I don't get the Patriot love. I 0:04:20.279 --> 0:04:22.119 don't get the Patriot play. I don't get the money 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:24.440 coming in on the Patriots. I know all these stats 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:26.600 are pointing towards the Patriots on a Thursday night victory 0:04:26.640 --> 0:04:29.320 short you know, short week they stayed out there out west. 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:32.360 If you're beating the Chargers forty five, nothing, blah blah blah, 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.320 all those stats have Tom Brady at the quarterback spot, 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.080 not Cam Newton. Don't think the Patriots can score it 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:39.960 all here against the Rams. I think it's a complete 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.400 mismatch right now. For what the Patriots are good at doing. 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:44.720 I don't think they're going to be able to move 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:46.520 the ball. And I think you can play man de 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:49.080 man defense with Jalen Ramsey in that secondary and put 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:50.960 eight in the box and say go ahead and try 0:04:51.000 --> 0:04:53.240 to run the football. And the Patriots, I don't think 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:55.640 they've got an offensive line capable of blowing out holes 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.720 like that, So Rams ten points are more tonight. 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.719 I can usually I feel like make a case for 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:05.200 myself as to how one team's gonna win a game, 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:07.320 especially when it's a single digit spread like this and 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.800 under a touchdown. It's really hard for me to see away. 0:05:10.839 --> 0:05:13.520 I mean, this is dumb because people, by the time 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.520 they're listening to this, this game has been played already, 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:17.440 so I don't want to go crazy with it. It 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:20.520 really is tough to see the way that the Patriots 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:22.400 win and the consensus spread, by the way, it's five 0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:24.000 and a half in our contest, which, by the way, 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.520 one lesson I've learned is that the Matt peraltisms are 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:30.120 full of nonsense. Okay, Matt, but I will make a 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:31.400 rule until it's not a role. 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:33.520 Also, have I bet a five and a half? 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:36.119 I don't think so, I hold my rules. 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:38.520 I'm betting this one because I don't care. You can 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:40.360 give me up to nine and a half and I'm 0:05:40.400 --> 0:05:41.840 still taking the rams. 0:05:41.640 --> 0:05:44.039 All right. The other thing that I've learned is that 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.800 if I'm on a position, Matt usually won't listen to me. 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.320 But if he goes and talks to quote unquote smart 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:52.359 people who are also on the same side, He's willing 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:52.960 to be convinced. 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.320 But regardless of course, Well, what't I do? I got it? 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:57.520 I got it. What's weird, man, is the consensus line 0:05:57.560 --> 0:05:59.559 that we're showing like a cross is four and a half, 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:00.640 not even five. 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:04.560 There will be books before this game kicks off that 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:05.200 will be at four. 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:09.040 Why, I mean, I legitimately can't figure it out other 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:10.440 than you. 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.520 Know, Belichick versus Anthony Lynn has them convinced that it's 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:17.760 Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay is as big of mismatches 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:18.280 last week. 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.400 That's not though Anthony Karen is like in a class 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.840 by himself. I mean, I agreeing them obviously, they they 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:27.640 you know, in the Super Bowl, like they they figured 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:30.640 out how to you know, keep the Rams from scoring points, 0:06:30.640 --> 0:06:32.839 but they had different personality. The only way I really 0:06:32.920 --> 0:06:35.640 see this is if, like the differential and special teams, 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:39.080 Patriots are really good, you know, sink right, they're third 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:41.520 in DVOA and special teams, the Rams are thirty. So 0:06:41.839 --> 0:06:43.960 it's gonna take something like that. So I'm gonna put it. 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.360 I mean, think about the logic of that, though. You're 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.640 gonna bet no, you're right that the Patriots are gonna 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:52.000 score points in special teams where it hadn't happened all year, 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:53.800 and they blocked a field goal for a touchdown, had 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.120 a punt return for a touchdown. So it's gonna happen 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:58.720 in back to back weeks after not happening all year. 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:00.960 Come on, that's ridiculous. 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:05.760 Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's going to 0:07:05.839 --> 0:07:07.320 be in the picks. And by the time you're listening 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:10.680 to this, we're either probably really happy or really we. 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:12.280 Haven't take any advantage. I mean that there have been 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:15.440 numerous Thursday games we tape this on Thursday this season 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:18.080 that we both have liked and said, oh, well, it's Thursday, 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:19.960 we're taping it. We're not going to take it. And 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:21.880 we have not taken advantage of the rule that you 0:07:21.920 --> 0:07:24.920 can place one bet Thursday. That's it, the one pick, 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:27.440 and then the other four later in the weekend. So 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:29.600 we haven't taken advantage of this. And I just think 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:32.600 this is a situation will play for me. Patriots back 0:07:32.640 --> 0:07:35.040 to back weeks on the West Coast, and look, take 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:37.240 all these numbers about like teams that were favored on 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:39.360 the road that win and come back at home on 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:42.400 a Thursday at home lose. They're three to nine and 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.480 one against the number. You know, I don't care. I 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:49.280 don't care what numbers are. It's this Patriots team without 0:07:49.360 --> 0:07:52.160 much talent in the on the wide receiver and corps, 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:54.840 no tight end to catch the football. I mean, they 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.800 already saw the Damien Harris wildcat against the Chargers, so 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.000 you can't even you know, you can't even shock them 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.640 by going with that because they've already seen it. So 0:08:03.280 --> 0:08:06.560 I mean, look again tomorrow when this drops, I might 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:08.880 be looking like an idiot, But if the Patriots win 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:11.640 this game, I'm ecstatic as a Patriot fan. I'm in love. 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:12.840 I don't see it. 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:14.640 Yeah, I mean, the best thing I could say is 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:17.040 that I think the public's still because of Belichick and 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.200 because of the leftovers from Brady looks to get excited 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:22.480 about the Patriots. And you know, a game where they 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:25.480 win forty five to nothing and they beat Arizona that 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.800 I could see the money coming in necessarily on the Patriots, 0:08:27.840 --> 0:08:29.840 but the sharp players. This just doesn't seem like the 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:30.560 right line to me. 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:32.760 I mean, that's what I don't get because I don't 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:36.080 see everyone I'm talking to. It's Rams, Rams, Rams, right, 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:38.600 and then people that are on Twitter like, well, the 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:41.120 experts are picking the Patriots. I'm like, what experts picking 0:08:41.160 --> 0:08:43.480 the Patriots? No one I'm talking to, So I mean, 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:45.600 no one I see, no one. I follow everyone that 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:48.320 I know is on the Rams big tonight. So I 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:50.480 don't know. I mean, I feel comfortable with the people 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:52.720 I trust that they like you, and other people feel like, 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.720 how are the Patriots scoring in? Belichick's a master, But 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:58.920 I mean, this is a really tough spot in my mind. 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.679 Yeah me too. So I'm almost positive we're going to 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:03.880 be picking this game. So I'm gonna put in right 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:05.760 now with pencil, but we're going to assume that's in, 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:09.280 and then we'll have a fun night going on here. Okay, 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:13.960 I have so that that was actually my number one, 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:16.760 But that shows you just kind of how I knew 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:18.040 you were going to go with it. So I figured 0:09:18.080 --> 0:09:19.559 that we were going to go with it. I don't 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:23.360 have strong feel like I have like five or six 0:09:23.440 --> 0:09:25.520 games that I'm like, all right, I could do. 0:09:25.840 --> 0:09:28.280 Well. There's one stat to bring up here, So ten 0:09:28.360 --> 0:09:32.200 of the sixteen games this year have road favorites. So 0:09:32.440 --> 0:09:35.400 it's an awkward week for that reason. We got a 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:37.480 lot of short lines. Yeah, there's not a lot of 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:40.320 big lines, but a lot of short road favorites, like 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:43.280 two and a half, one and a half threes all 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.199 over the board, which is kind of tough because it's 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:49.200 really okay on neutral field, it's a six point line 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.480 if your favorite on the road by three. So it's 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:53.640 a little bit of a difficult week for that reason. 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:57.760 Yeah, okay, so here's what I'm gonna throw this one out. 0:09:57.760 --> 0:09:59.920 But don't you know this is not a this is 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.839 my number one or my number two. Like it's legitterally 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:03.800 as large. 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.680 Literally that's a great word. Legitterally. Yeah. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.480 Wow, Yeah, how about there, I'm gonna go with the 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:13.800 bucks laying six and a half to the Vikings in Tampa. 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:17.360 So here's my rationale and then we can talk about it. Uh. 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:20.600 The Bucks are, of course off of Bye, which I 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.800 think is pretty important. I don't know if there's ever 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:26.240 been one. I should research it, whether there's ever been 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:29.200 a week thirteen by and for an old you know, 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:31.720 quarterback like Brady, but just for the team, I think 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:34.199 they really needed to catch their breath. There are a 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:37.280 couple of concerns here. Mike Evans, you know, was downgraded. 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:39.200 You know, he was still battling the hamstring. Then I 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.719 guess he didn't play today, which never is a good sign. 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:43.600 But Chris Godwin sounds like he's going to be fine. 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:46.400 Ali Marpt is finally going to come back. That's a 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:48.480 big sort of thing. And really I think when the 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:52.800 Bucks struggled, they just struggle against good defenses the Vikings. 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.560 If they could get pressure, fine, but they don't get 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.040 a ton of pressure. They're dealing with injuries themselves. With 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:01.760 Hendrix who's down on defense, Kyle Rudolph doesn't sound good 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.200 like he's gonna go I think, really, you know, they're 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.120 gonna be able to stop Dalvin Cook. For the most part, 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:11.400 Cook is fantastic, but it's a great run defense. And 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:14.000 then I think you're gonna put it in Kirk Cousins hands, 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.640 like good luck. You know. I like to fade Kirk Cousins, 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:18.559 and we talked about how last week. So I think 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:20.280 this is a game where the Bucks actually come out 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:22.600 they need to win. They come out at home and 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:24.560 put up a big number on the board and under 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:26.720 a touchdown, I feel okay about it. So the Bucks 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:28.240 selling six and half is one of my pals. 0:11:28.280 --> 0:11:29.920 I like it. It's on my list. I like it, 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:32.640 and I like it for a couple of reasons. One 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.439 Brady over a. You know, coming out of the by, 0:11:35.640 --> 0:11:38.480 traditionally Tom Brady. You know this is with Belichick obviously, 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.479 but coming out of the by, they normally have new wrinkles. 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:44.559 They normally put in either new route trees or they 0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:48.000 put in new type of alignments, and so it changes 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.040 up what they were doing. And I think Bruce arians 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:52.720 will be smart enough to do this. The only reason 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:54.640 why I hesitate, the only reason why it's not higher 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:57.520 on my list is because I am hoping and I 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:01.720 am borderline praying that Bruce as has changed the offense 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:05.520 during the bye week to incorporate more short passes to 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.960 stop this down the field crap and just I know 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.520 you got Mike Evans and Godwin and whatnot, but let's 0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:14.120 talk about slant routes. Let's talk about you know, guys 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.640 in the slot. Let's let's bring back what was working 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.320 earlier in the year with Scottie Miller. Let's use the 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.200 tight ends as much as they were before, not just 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:24.760 in the red zone. If they do that, I think 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:26.760 they'll put up a big number here, and they'll score 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:28.760 a lot on that secondary for the Vikings, and I 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.480 think they'll cover the line easily. So that's my only 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:35.400 hesitation that is Bruce arians really that stubborn or does 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:37.440 he finally wake up and realize what he's got at 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.320 quarterback and put in better pass plays for his quarterback. 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:43.520 So I think he's been disappointing already, the fact that 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:45.600 he's like, why are you still doing this? Like you 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:47.640 and I can sit here and watch this and as 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:49.600 smart as the two of us are and as much 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.240 football as we watch, like he's an NFL coach, Like 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:54.160 we know that this is not the game plan you 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.520 should be running right now with Tom Brady, Like it's 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:58.640 very clear what you should be doing. So the fact 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:01.320 that he hasn't done it yet is wrecking. But again 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.480 I agree off of By, they need to win at 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.559 this point. This is nothing. And again this is much 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:09.079 a fade of Kirk Cousins, which you know we like, 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:11.400 you know, we're always like, when's the Kirk Cousins fade game? 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:12.480 It really was last week. I guess. 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:13.280 Yes, this is a team. 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:15.920 This is a team that could have easily lost to 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:20.280 the Mike Glennon led Jacksonville Jaguars. They're just not that good. 0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:22.080 I think the Bucks come out here. I think they 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:23.760 make a little bit of a statement. So I do 0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:25.959 like the game. Again, not not something far and away, 0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.880 but let's put it on the pencil list and we'll 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.040 talk about it going in. But we're on the same side, 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:32.600 so that's good. Who's your next one? 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:36.480 Okay, So I've got two teams that I'm really concerned 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.120 about in December as to what they've done early versus 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:44.000 what they've done late. One's the Raiders and one's the Cardinals. First, 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:48.040 let's start with the Raiders, Indianapolis and our pool laying 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.520 two and a half. There's been money here that's trying 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:52.680 to push this to three. It probably will be three 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.040 by the time the game kicks off or higher. But 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:58.120 I'm really concerned about where the Raiders are, and I 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:01.080 think there are some legitimate issue with that offensive line. 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.400 With no Regie in cognito, they're not running the ball 0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:06.920 nearly as successfully as they were. Derek Carr, after starting 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.320 out really hot, has now started to turn the football 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:13.000 over and starting to really regress. Yes, Waller is an 0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:15.840 absolute beast, and I love the guy, but I mean, 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:19.080 Agalar's come around a little bit. I know you've got 0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:21.120 some third down guys who can move the chains. But 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:23.160 just the fact that the Jets were in that game, 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.280 and they should have won the game if it wasn't 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:29.040 for what I call heard it today a suicide play 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.840 call by Greg Williams, which I thought was an awesome 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:33.240 way of describing. 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.440 Yeah, the zerog Williams is my hero. Don't worry about it. 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:36.440 Greg Williams is my hero. 0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:38.920 That he did did to go ahead, hit Ruggs down 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:41.760 the sidelines, Ruggs fumble in the football and not looking 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:43.720 good all that, I mean, that game was on him. 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:46.440 If it wasn't for Yeah, it wasn't for that. I 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:50.200 just think Indianapolis because there's no pressure coming on Philip Rivers. 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:52.920 I think Pittman has really stepped up and played nicely. 0:14:53.160 --> 0:14:55.480 I mean, obviously you got t Y. The running games 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.120 come around. I think Indianapoli is just a much better 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.200 overall football team here. I'm laying less than on a 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.600 field goal. I want Indianapolis mist two and a half. 0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:06.760 Yeah, I'm good with that. I again, let's right now. 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:08.400 I think we're on the you know, we've got three 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:10.520 games that I feel pretty decent about. It was on 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:14.200 my list. I have backed the Colts a lot this year. 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:18.160 This game against the Texans scared me a little bit 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.440 because I really thought that this was one that the 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.440 fact that you probably should have lost to a team 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:27.600 without will Fuller, without Roby really nerve wrecking. Rivers is 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.920 clearly hobbled by the toe. But I agree they found 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:32.920 a way to get t Y Hilton involved, whether he 0:15:33.000 --> 0:15:35.560 was fully healthy or not. They still have Michael Pittman Jr. 0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:40.680 They are thankfully turning it over to Jonathan Taylor on 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:42.880 the ground a little more, and their offensive line, by 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:45.760 the way, is getting healthy. That is a big deal 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:47.640 for them. They were beat up a little bit. I 0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:49.680 think they're going to be basically at full strength in 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:53.440 this game. So yeah, I'm good with this. It's one 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:54.920 of the ones that was on my list, so I 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.720 feel pretty good about it. And yeah, and again I 0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:59.600 like to just see what the general our consensus is, 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:02.200 and about seventy four percent are on India as well. 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.320 That seems to be the right side underfield goal, Matt, Yeah, 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:06.920 that seems to be the right side to me. Now, 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:08.800 what was the other one that you were talking about, Arizona? 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.520 No, well, yeah, so the Giants are catching two and 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:15.200 a half points against the Cardinals at home. Yeah, I 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:19.360 just I think the much like the Cardinals, much like 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:23.920 the Raiders. The Cardinals are flailing and the Giants are 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:27.960 playing really good smash mouth December football. I like what 0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:30.360 Joe Judge is doing. I don't care who played with, 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.840 whether you Colt McCoy or Danny Dimes, I don't really care. 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:37.040 I know getting Fitzgerald back is big, but he lost 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.040 nine pounds during his COVID nineteen battle and he definitely 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:41.560 is not going to be one hundred percent. You just 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:43.640 don't come back. I've had this starn virus. You don't 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:45.680 come back that fast and you're you know, look what 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:47.880 happened to Cam Newton. Look how kind of you you. 0:16:47.960 --> 0:16:50.080 Sometimes you're just in a mind fog. I was in 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:51.880 a brain fog for a good month and a half 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.000 after COVID. It's just it's not something you want to 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.760 play around with. I just think the Cardinals are in trouble. 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.000 I think this is the schedule is going against them. 0:16:59.080 --> 0:17:01.920 I don't think Kyler mur is healthy. And the Giants, 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.200 I mean, I just think they're coming around and they're 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:07.040 playing really good football in December, catching two and a 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.120 half points at home. I like the Giants. 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:11.760 Yeah, I don't hate it. It's not one of my favorite. 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.200 Like I don't put it in the same bucket as 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:16.760 you know, the Colts with the Raiders, I would lean 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:18.520 that way. If I'm if I'm forced to pick a side, 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.600