Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me,
Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Perrault. You can find us on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt
Speaker 1: the hottest NFL better that I've ever seen in my life. Matt,
Speaker 1: What a week for you? Man?
Speaker 2: Well, wasn't just the NFL. But yeah, I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: when you get on a roll like this, you just
Speaker 2: kind of ride it and you just hope that it
Speaker 2: doesn't stop. I mean, at the time of taping, we've
Speaker 2: hit twenty of our last twenty three bets on The
Speaker 2: Daily Juice. If you got a bet late in uh
Speaker 2: during the week on Wednesday, you actually won because I
Speaker 2: got a worse number than actually what went off at
Speaker 2: Wisconsin under basketball play that I had at one thirty
Speaker 2: eight and one thirty four thirty three different books and
Speaker 2: people bet it. By the time the more and came around,
Speaker 2: the number had dropped so much that it was a
Speaker 2: beneficiary to the to the Daily Juice audience. So really
Speaker 2: it's twenty one and two for certain players out there.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean when it's like this, I went
Speaker 2: five to oh in the Circa when five to oh
Speaker 2: in the Westgate we went four and one. I mean,
Speaker 2: just as it's been a crazy week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, first, sorry for keeping into just the NFL,
Speaker 1: but you know that's when people are here for the PA,
Speaker 1: So that's why I missed that. But number two, you
Speaker 1: saw the board so clearly last week because even one
Speaker 1: of the ones that we went to, which was the Colts,
Speaker 1: like we kind of looked out in that game, you
Speaker 1: were on the other side. That was it, right, right,
Speaker 1: You were on the other side of that one originally.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I wanted the Texans, and I mean it
Speaker 2: very easily could have been the Texans if it wasn't
Speaker 2: for that fumble body Sean Watson. Yeah, that's the right side.
Speaker 1: That was the right side. Yeah, but whatever, we'll take it. Obviously,
Speaker 1: as as you said on the Daily Juice, things even out.
Speaker 1: This is the whole point of how it works. But
Speaker 1: we'll break down every game this weekend. Let's recap the
Speaker 1: the DraftKings contest. As Matt said, we went four and one.
Speaker 1: We hit on the saintslaning two and a half to
Speaker 1: the Falcons. The Colts lank three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Texans, as I just mentioned the Patriots are getting
Speaker 1: a half a point from the Chargers. That was not close,
Speaker 1: the Washington football team getting eight and a half from
Speaker 1: the Steelers, and we missed on the Raiders leank seven
Speaker 1: and a half to the Jets. I said last week
Speaker 1: on the show that I thought Matt and I needed
Speaker 1: to go fourteen and one over our final three weeks.
Speaker 1: Remember we have one bye week still to go. Matt
Speaker 1: attacked my math as usual Maclos, and he later on
Speaker 1: realized that he was wrong. So we do need to
Speaker 1: We did need to go fourteen to one to hit
Speaker 1: sixty percent right now, that is still the cutoff for
Speaker 1: being in the money. We went four and one, so
Speaker 1: we've got to sweep. We've got to sleep right now.
Speaker 1: It may not end up that way, maybe a little lower,
Speaker 1: but right now, that's where it is. So let's get
Speaker 1: into this right now. Matt out, what's that? Where are
Speaker 1: we We're at the low two hundreds out of six
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety one two top we're two hundred fifteen.
Speaker 1: I think, oh, okay, yeah, we're there. I mean, and
Speaker 1: I think the top eighty right now are getting paid
Speaker 1: because it's tied and stuff like that. So we're there.
Speaker 1: We gained I don't know, one hundred spots last week
Speaker 1: with a four and one. We will move up if
Speaker 1: we get it, and I remember a lot of people.
Speaker 1: You know. It depends on the bye weeks that are remaining.
Speaker 1: We have won, so one of the next three weeks
Speaker 1: could be this week. Don't know for sure. We have
Speaker 1: to take one of our bye weeks. But Matt, let
Speaker 1: me ask you. Because we don't talk about this other
Speaker 1: than one pick, which we'll get to, which my guess
Speaker 1: is gonna be your top pick. We don't talk about
Speaker 1: it much. Are you loved last week? I didn't you
Speaker 1: loved last week?
Speaker 2: Coming in?
Speaker 1: Do you love this week? Asma?
Speaker 2: I don't love it. I like it, I don't love it.
Speaker 2: I'm coming around on it, but I'm in the like
Speaker 2: you know, I'm in the beginning part of dating. I'm
Speaker 2: not noting it yet, but I'm close. I'm coming around.
Speaker 2: There are games I like.
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's talk about it now. Let's start with you.
Speaker 1: And you know, there was one game that we talked about,
Speaker 1: and there was a game that we had to talk
Speaker 1: about because it's a game that if we'd like. By
Speaker 1: the time people are listening, to this, we will have
Speaker 1: already played and if so, we will play it on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Is that your number one pick of the weekend, Matt.
Speaker 2: It is, and it's it's if you listen to the
Speaker 2: Daily Juice, you already have this. But I'm all over
Speaker 2: the Rams tonight, and I think this is if you
Speaker 2: look at the ultra of point spreads in Vegas, it's
Speaker 2: ten and a half. For a reason, because I think
Speaker 2: this is a ten point victory for the Rams tonight.
Speaker 2: I don't think the Patriots are gonna score. I think
Speaker 2: the Unders a play as well, but I think the Patriots.
Speaker 2: I have it at twenty seven seventeen somewhere in that range,
Speaker 2: twenty four to fourteen, somewhere in that range here for
Speaker 2: the Rams. And I don't get the Patriot love. I
Speaker 2: don't get the Patriot play. I don't get the money
Speaker 2: coming in on the Patriots. I know all these stats
Speaker 2: are pointing towards the Patriots on a Thursday night victory
Speaker 2: short you know, short week they stayed out there out west.
Speaker 2: If you're beating the Chargers forty five, nothing, blah blah blah,
Speaker 2: all those stats have Tom Brady at the quarterback spot,
Speaker 2: not Cam Newton. Don't think the Patriots can score it
Speaker 2: all here against the Rams. I think it's a complete
Speaker 2: mismatch right now. For what the Patriots are good at doing.
Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be able to move
Speaker 2: the ball. And I think you can play man de
Speaker 2: man defense with Jalen Ramsey in that secondary and put
Speaker 2: eight in the box and say go ahead and try
Speaker 2: to run the football. And the Patriots, I don't think
Speaker 2: they've got an offensive line capable of blowing out holes
Speaker 2: like that, So Rams ten points are more tonight.
Speaker 1: I can usually I feel like make a case for
Speaker 1: myself as to how one team's gonna win a game,
Speaker 1: especially when it's a single digit spread like this and
Speaker 1: under a touchdown. It's really hard for me to see away.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is dumb because people, by the time
Speaker 1: they're listening to this, this game has been played already,
Speaker 1: so I don't want to go crazy with it. It
Speaker 1: really is tough to see the way that the Patriots
Speaker 1: win and the consensus spread, by the way, it's five
Speaker 1: and a half in our contest, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: one lesson I've learned is that the Matt peraltisms are
Speaker 1: full of nonsense. Okay, Matt, but I will make a
Speaker 1: rule until it's not a role.
Speaker 2: Also, have I bet a five and a half?
Speaker 1: I don't think so, I hold my rules.
Speaker 2: I'm betting this one because I don't care. You can
Speaker 2: give me up to nine and a half and I'm
Speaker 2: still taking the rams.
Speaker 1: All right. The other thing that I've learned is that
Speaker 1: if I'm on a position, Matt usually won't listen to me.
Speaker 1: But if he goes and talks to quote unquote smart
Speaker 1: people who are also on the same side, He's willing
Speaker 1: to be convinced.
Speaker 2: But regardless of course, Well, what't I do? I got it?
Speaker 1: I got it. What's weird, man, is the consensus line
Speaker 1: that we're showing like a cross is four and a half,
Speaker 1: not even five.
Speaker 2: There will be books before this game kicks off that
Speaker 2: will be at four.
Speaker 1: Why, I mean, I legitimately can't figure it out other
Speaker 1: than you.
Speaker 2: Know, Belichick versus Anthony Lynn has them convinced that it's
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay is as big of mismatches
Speaker 2: last week.
Speaker 1: That's not though Anthony Karen is like in a class
Speaker 1: by himself. I mean, I agreeing them obviously, they they
Speaker 1: you know, in the Super Bowl, like they they figured
Speaker 1: out how to you know, keep the Rams from scoring points,
Speaker 1: but they had different personality. The only way I really
Speaker 1: see this is if, like the differential and special teams,
Speaker 1: Patriots are really good, you know, sink right, they're third
Speaker 1: in DVOA and special teams, the Rams are thirty. So
Speaker 1: it's gonna take something like that. So I'm gonna put it.
Speaker 2: I mean, think about the logic of that, though. You're
Speaker 2: gonna bet no, you're right that the Patriots are gonna
Speaker 2: score points in special teams where it hadn't happened all year,
Speaker 2: and they blocked a field goal for a touchdown, had
Speaker 2: a punt return for a touchdown. So it's gonna happen
Speaker 2: in back to back weeks after not happening all year.
Speaker 2: Come on, that's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's going to
Speaker 1: be in the picks. And by the time you're listening
Speaker 1: to this, we're either probably really happy or really we.
Speaker 2: Haven't take any advantage. I mean that there have been
Speaker 2: numerous Thursday games we tape this on Thursday this season
Speaker 2: that we both have liked and said, oh, well, it's Thursday,
Speaker 2: we're taping it. We're not going to take it. And
Speaker 2: we have not taken advantage of the rule that you
Speaker 2: can place one bet Thursday. That's it, the one pick,
Speaker 2: and then the other four later in the weekend. So
Speaker 2: we haven't taken advantage of this. And I just think
Speaker 2: this is a situation will play for me. Patriots back
Speaker 2: to back weeks on the West Coast, and look, take
Speaker 2: all these numbers about like teams that were favored on
Speaker 2: the road that win and come back at home on
Speaker 2: a Thursday at home lose. They're three to nine and
Speaker 2: one against the number. You know, I don't care. I
Speaker 2: don't care what numbers are. It's this Patriots team without
Speaker 2: much talent in the on the wide receiver and corps,
Speaker 2: no tight end to catch the football. I mean, they
Speaker 2: already saw the Damien Harris wildcat against the Chargers, so
Speaker 2: you can't even you know, you can't even shock them
Speaker 2: by going with that because they've already seen it. So
Speaker 2: I mean, look again tomorrow when this drops, I might
Speaker 2: be looking like an idiot, But if the Patriots win
Speaker 2: this game, I'm ecstatic as a Patriot fan. I'm in love.
Speaker 2: I don't see it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the best thing I could say is
Speaker 1: that I think the public's still because of Belichick and
Speaker 1: because of the leftovers from Brady looks to get excited
Speaker 1: about the Patriots. And you know, a game where they
Speaker 1: win forty five to nothing and they beat Arizona that
Speaker 1: I could see the money coming in necessarily on the Patriots,
Speaker 1: but the sharp players. This just doesn't seem like the
Speaker 1: right line to me.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's what I don't get because I don't
Speaker 2: see everyone I'm talking to. It's Rams, Rams, Rams, right,
Speaker 2: and then people that are on Twitter like, well, the
Speaker 2: experts are picking the Patriots. I'm like, what experts picking
Speaker 2: the Patriots? No one I'm talking to, So I mean,
Speaker 2: no one I see, no one. I follow everyone that
Speaker 2: I know is on the Rams big tonight. So I
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, I feel comfortable with the people
Speaker 2: I trust that they like you, and other people feel like,
Speaker 2: how are the Patriots scoring in? Belichick's a master, But
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a really tough spot in my mind.
Speaker 1: Yeah me too. So I'm almost positive we're going to
Speaker 1: be picking this game. So I'm gonna put in right
Speaker 1: now with pencil, but we're going to assume that's in,
Speaker 1: and then we'll have a fun night going on here. Okay,
Speaker 1: I have so that that was actually my number one,
Speaker 1: But that shows you just kind of how I knew
Speaker 1: you were going to go with it. So I figured
Speaker 1: that we were going to go with it. I don't
Speaker 1: have strong feel like I have like five or six
Speaker 1: games that I'm like, all right, I could do.
Speaker 2: Well. There's one stat to bring up here, So ten
Speaker 2: of the sixteen games this year have road favorites. So
Speaker 2: it's an awkward week for that reason. We got a
Speaker 2: lot of short lines. Yeah, there's not a lot of
Speaker 2: big lines, but a lot of short road favorites, like
Speaker 2: two and a half, one and a half threes all
Speaker 2: over the board, which is kind of tough because it's
Speaker 2: really okay on neutral field, it's a six point line
Speaker 2: if your favorite on the road by three. So it's
Speaker 2: a little bit of a difficult week for that reason.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so here's what I'm gonna throw this one out.
Speaker 1: But don't you know this is not a this is
Speaker 1: my number one or my number two. Like it's legitterally
Speaker 1: as large.
Speaker 2: Literally that's a great word. Legitterally. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Wow, Yeah, how about there, I'm gonna go with the
Speaker 1: bucks laying six and a half to the Vikings in Tampa.
Speaker 1: So here's my rationale and then we can talk about it. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Bucks are, of course off of Bye, which I
Speaker 1: think is pretty important. I don't know if there's ever
Speaker 1: been one. I should research it, whether there's ever been
Speaker 1: a week thirteen by and for an old you know,
Speaker 1: quarterback like Brady, but just for the team, I think
Speaker 1: they really needed to catch their breath. There are a
Speaker 1: couple of concerns here. Mike Evans, you know, was downgraded.
Speaker 1: You know, he was still battling the hamstring. Then I
Speaker 1: guess he didn't play today, which never is a good sign.
Speaker 1: But Chris Godwin sounds like he's going to be fine.
Speaker 1: Ali Marpt is finally going to come back. That's a
Speaker 1: big sort of thing. And really I think when the
Speaker 1: Bucks struggled, they just struggle against good defenses the Vikings.
Speaker 1: If they could get pressure, fine, but they don't get
Speaker 1: a ton of pressure. They're dealing with injuries themselves. With
Speaker 1: Hendrix who's down on defense, Kyle Rudolph doesn't sound good
Speaker 1: like he's gonna go I think, really, you know, they're
Speaker 1: gonna be able to stop Dalvin Cook. For the most part,
Speaker 1: Cook is fantastic, but it's a great run defense. And
Speaker 1: then I think you're gonna put it in Kirk Cousins hands,
Speaker 1: like good luck. You know. I like to fade Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 1: and we talked about how last week. So I think
Speaker 1: this is a game where the Bucks actually come out
Speaker 1: they need to win. They come out at home and
Speaker 1: put up a big number on the board and under
Speaker 1: a touchdown, I feel okay about it. So the Bucks
Speaker 1: selling six and half is one of my pals.
Speaker 2: I like it. It's on my list. I like it,
Speaker 2: and I like it for a couple of reasons. One
Speaker 2: Brady over a. You know, coming out of the by,
Speaker 2: traditionally Tom Brady. You know this is with Belichick obviously,
Speaker 2: but coming out of the by, they normally have new wrinkles.
Speaker 2: They normally put in either new route trees or they
Speaker 2: put in new type of alignments, and so it changes
Speaker 2: up what they were doing. And I think Bruce arians
Speaker 2: will be smart enough to do this. The only reason
Speaker 2: why I hesitate, the only reason why it's not higher
Speaker 2: on my list is because I am hoping and I
Speaker 2: am borderline praying that Bruce as has changed the offense
Speaker 2: during the bye week to incorporate more short passes to
Speaker 2: stop this down the field crap and just I know
Speaker 2: you got Mike Evans and Godwin and whatnot, but let's
Speaker 2: talk about slant routes. Let's talk about you know, guys
Speaker 2: in the slot. Let's let's bring back what was working
Speaker 2: earlier in the year with Scottie Miller. Let's use the
Speaker 2: tight ends as much as they were before, not just
Speaker 2: in the red zone. If they do that, I think
Speaker 2: they'll put up a big number here, and they'll score
Speaker 2: a lot on that secondary for the Vikings, and I
Speaker 2: think they'll cover the line easily. So that's my only
Speaker 2: hesitation that is Bruce arians really that stubborn or does
Speaker 2: he finally wake up and realize what he's got at
Speaker 2: quarterback and put in better pass plays for his quarterback.
Speaker 1: So I think he's been disappointing already, the fact that
Speaker 1: he's like, why are you still doing this? Like you
Speaker 1: and I can sit here and watch this and as
Speaker 1: smart as the two of us are and as much
Speaker 1: football as we watch, like he's an NFL coach, Like
Speaker 1: we know that this is not the game plan you
Speaker 1: should be running right now with Tom Brady, Like it's
Speaker 1: very clear what you should be doing. So the fact
Speaker 1: that he hasn't done it yet is wrecking. But again
Speaker 1: I agree off of By, they need to win at
Speaker 1: this point. This is nothing. And again this is much
Speaker 1: a fade of Kirk Cousins, which you know we like,
Speaker 1: you know, we're always like, when's the Kirk Cousins fade game?
Speaker 1: It really was last week. I guess.
Speaker 2: Yes, this is a team.
Speaker 1: This is a team that could have easily lost to
Speaker 1: the Mike Glennon led Jacksonville Jaguars. They're just not that good.
Speaker 1: I think the Bucks come out here. I think they
Speaker 1: make a little bit of a statement. So I do
Speaker 1: like the game. Again, not not something far and away,
Speaker 1: but let's put it on the pencil list and we'll
Speaker 1: talk about it going in. But we're on the same side,
Speaker 1: so that's good. Who's your next one?
Speaker 2: Okay, So I've got two teams that I'm really concerned
Speaker 2: about in December as to what they've done early versus
Speaker 2: what they've done late. One's the Raiders and one's the Cardinals. First,
Speaker 2: let's start with the Raiders, Indianapolis and our pool laying
Speaker 2: two and a half. There's been money here that's trying
Speaker 2: to push this to three. It probably will be three
Speaker 2: by the time the game kicks off or higher. But
Speaker 2: I'm really concerned about where the Raiders are, and I
Speaker 2: think there are some legitimate issue with that offensive line.
Speaker 2: With no Regie in cognito, they're not running the ball
Speaker 2: nearly as successfully as they were. Derek Carr, after starting
Speaker 2: out really hot, has now started to turn the football
Speaker 2: over and starting to really regress. Yes, Waller is an
Speaker 2: absolute beast, and I love the guy, but I mean,
Speaker 2: Agalar's come around a little bit. I know you've got
Speaker 2: some third down guys who can move the chains. But
Speaker 2: just the fact that the Jets were in that game,
Speaker 2: and they should have won the game if it wasn't
Speaker 2: for what I call heard it today a suicide play
Speaker 2: call by Greg Williams, which I thought was an awesome
Speaker 2: way of describing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the zerog Williams is my hero. Don't worry about it.
Speaker 1: Greg Williams is my hero.
Speaker 2: That he did did to go ahead, hit Ruggs down
Speaker 2: the sidelines, Ruggs fumble in the football and not looking
Speaker 2: good all that, I mean, that game was on him.
Speaker 2: If it wasn't for Yeah, it wasn't for that. I
Speaker 2: just think Indianapolis because there's no pressure coming on Philip Rivers.
Speaker 2: I think Pittman has really stepped up and played nicely.
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously you got t Y. The running games
Speaker 2: come around. I think Indianapoli is just a much better
Speaker 2: overall football team here. I'm laying less than on a
Speaker 2: field goal. I want Indianapolis mist two and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm good with that. I again, let's right now.
Speaker 1: I think we're on the you know, we've got three
Speaker 1: games that I feel pretty decent about. It was on
Speaker 1: my list. I have backed the Colts a lot this year.
Speaker 1: This game against the Texans scared me a little bit
Speaker 1: because I really thought that this was one that the
Speaker 1: fact that you probably should have lost to a team
Speaker 1: without will Fuller, without Roby really nerve wrecking. Rivers is
Speaker 1: clearly hobbled by the toe. But I agree they found
Speaker 1: a way to get t Y Hilton involved, whether he
Speaker 1: was fully healthy or not. They still have Michael Pittman Jr.
Speaker 1: They are thankfully turning it over to Jonathan Taylor on
Speaker 1: the ground a little more, and their offensive line, by
Speaker 1: the way, is getting healthy. That is a big deal
Speaker 1: for them. They were beat up a little bit. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be basically at full strength in
Speaker 1: this game. So yeah, I'm good with this. It's one
Speaker 1: of the ones that was on my list, so I
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. And yeah, and again I
Speaker 1: like to just see what the general our consensus is,
Speaker 1: and about seventy four percent are on India as well.
Speaker 1: That seems to be the right side underfield goal, Matt, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that seems to be the right side to me. Now,
Speaker 1: what was the other one that you were talking about, Arizona?
Speaker 2: No, well, yeah, so the Giants are catching two and
Speaker 2: a half points against the Cardinals at home. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: just I think the much like the Cardinals, much like
Speaker 2: the Raiders. The Cardinals are flailing and the Giants are
Speaker 2: playing really good smash mouth December football. I like what
Speaker 2: Joe Judge is doing. I don't care who played with,
Speaker 2: whether you Colt McCoy or Danny Dimes, I don't really care.
Speaker 2: I know getting Fitzgerald back is big, but he lost
Speaker 2: nine pounds during his COVID nineteen battle and he definitely
Speaker 2: is not going to be one hundred percent. You just
Speaker 2: don't come back. I've had this starn virus. You don't
Speaker 2: come back that fast and you're you know, look what
Speaker 2: happened to Cam Newton. Look how kind of you you.
Speaker 2: Sometimes you're just in a mind fog. I was in
Speaker 2: a brain fog for a good month and a half
Speaker 2: after COVID. It's just it's not something you want to
Speaker 2: play around with. I just think the Cardinals are in trouble.
Speaker 2: I think this is the schedule is going against them.
Speaker 2: I don't think Kyler mur is healthy. And the Giants,
Speaker 2: I mean, I just think they're coming around and they're
Speaker 2: playing really good football in December, catching two and a
Speaker 2: half points at home. I like the Giants.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it. It's not one of my favorite.
Speaker 1: Like I don't put it in the same bucket as
Speaker 1: you know, the Colts with the Raiders, I would lean
Speaker 1: that way. If I'm if I'm forced to pick a side,
Speaker 1: I would. It's just it's, you know, it's weird, Matt.
Speaker 1: Sometimes I find it hard even where IN'SO week fourteen,
Speaker 1: you know, and you know I look at players really
Speaker 1: closely because I protect and everything before the season coming in.
Speaker 1: It's just hard for they're playing really well, the Giants,
Speaker 1: their defense in particular, and if it's legitimate, then yeah,
Speaker 1: this is the right side for sure. And again Murray,
Speaker 1: it's a lot of it is on Murray, who doesn't
Speaker 1: look fully healthy. I just don't. I don't. I don't
Speaker 1: feel that comfortable with it.
Speaker 2: Like he just stopped running. Murray stopped running. I mean,
Speaker 2: I know he's their best weapon. He just know it
Speaker 2: has to be because he's not healthy. He's just not
Speaker 2: scattering around like he normally does, picking up first downs
Speaker 2: and burning defenses.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, all right, let's put it on the maybe list.
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 1: I will really want to know your feelings on this one, Matt,
Speaker 1: because again, you were the Bills fader the whole season,
Speaker 1: on the list all you were all over.
Speaker 2: Them on the list. They're on the list.
Speaker 1: Wait, they're on the list to take the Bills. Oh no,
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Oh yes, good, that's where I'm at, too,
Speaker 1: very good. Okay, I got nervous for a second. They're
Speaker 1: getting two and a half points against the Bills. This
Speaker 1: strikes me as massive overreaction to me as to what
Speaker 1: we saw. The Bills looked awesome.
Speaker 2: Aline flipped five points.
Speaker 1: Is that what it was?
Speaker 2: It flipped five points? It was two and a half
Speaker 2: for the Steelers. It's not two and a half for
Speaker 2: the Bills. Yeah, five points, get out of.
Speaker 1: Here, and they look great. And you were on that game.
Speaker 1: You were all over that game. I was on the
Speaker 1: other side of that game. Frankly, I thought that the
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers find a way to win. They weren't
Speaker 1: even close. Yeah, you were all over that. And it's
Speaker 1: like the Steelers, I mean, give me a break, Like
Speaker 1: they can lose a game. Everyone's like, they're not going
Speaker 1: to go undefeated on the season. Big deals. Washington football
Speaker 1: team is underrated. They have a very strong defense. What
Speaker 1: does make me nervous is the fact that they are
Speaker 1: so horribly beat up at linebacker at this point. I mean,
Speaker 1: Robert Splaine is down, Vince Williams just went on the
Speaker 1: COVID list. They're really beat up there. Even Hayden has
Speaker 1: hurt a little bit. But there are spots. I think
Speaker 1: the one thing that you can think about is Mike
Speaker 1: Tomlin is kind of a really predictable coach when it
Speaker 1: comes to betting, right, you fade him when they're like favorites,
Speaker 1: right when it's the game that you know they should win,
Speaker 1: and when there's a ra ra moment, when there's a
Speaker 1: people aren't believing in me, you know this is what
Speaker 1: we need to come up. That's when you jump right
Speaker 1: on because he is an incredible motivational coach. Josh Allen
Speaker 1: looked like the best quarterback in football this past week,
Speaker 1: but we've seen it. We've seen it now for a
Speaker 1: couple of seasons. He is super inconsistent. He's gonna come
Speaker 1: out one day, he's going to look like the best
Speaker 1: quarterback in football, and the next day's gonna be like, what
Speaker 1: is this human being doing at this moment with the ball?
Speaker 1: So sounds like I don't really need to convince you
Speaker 1: the home field advantage by the way. You know that
Speaker 1: like I fear Buffalo when there are fans there like that,
Speaker 1: that's when it gets nervous. Now, I don't that means
Speaker 1: nothing at this point.
Speaker 2: I also think if you go back and watch the
Speaker 2: game against Washington, how many drops did Ebron have? Nine?
Speaker 1: They always have the many. The unfortunate part is that
Speaker 1: they are always dropping those balls like Deontay Johnson and
Speaker 1: Eric Gebron their drop machines. But my guess is though
Speaker 1: that like I wouldn't want to be like playing for
Speaker 1: Tomlin at this point if with all those drops.
Speaker 2: Right, well, in the Ravens game. That didn't look good, right, So,
Speaker 2: I mean they've played a bunch of games where they've
Speaker 2: had to play a ton of Look, I just think
Speaker 2: this is a primetime game. Everyone's selling on the Steelers.
Speaker 2: You know, maybe they'll run the ball a bit more.
Speaker 2: I mean, the Bills can't stop running anybody running the football,
Speaker 2: so I think that maybe they kind of go back
Speaker 2: to old school Steeler football and run.
Speaker 1: With That's a little right, That's that's part of the
Speaker 1: unfortunate part is that the Steelers really have no run
Speaker 1: game at this point. They were beat up on the
Speaker 1: offensive line, but they choose just to throw. That's fine,
Speaker 1: but you're gonna I don't know. Also, this last game,
Speaker 1: and I'm I'm analyzing it more from a fantasy football perspective,
Speaker 1: I do not know why Chase Claypole suddenly was not
Speaker 1: on the field nearly as much as he had been
Speaker 1: in the past. He's a great playmaker. My guess is
Speaker 1: they'll get him out there more. So. Yeah, I just
Speaker 1: think this is a bounce back spot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I mean two and a half
Speaker 2: catching two and a half, I'll bet it. I'm waiting
Speaker 2: to see if I can get three or yeah, right,
Speaker 2: So I mean before I bet it, I want three
Speaker 2: or higher. But it's a primetime game for the Pittsburgh
Speaker 2: Steelers here to come back. And I mean, look, anytime
Speaker 2: I can fade Josh Allen.
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, I know. And after a game where you
Speaker 1: were like, nah, Bill's, Bill's for sure Bill's, I was like, wow, okay,
Speaker 1: I don't know where we are, so yeah, okay, good,
Speaker 1: that's another one. Then all right, what do you got?
Speaker 1: You got any others that you like?
Speaker 2: So there's a couple other that I want to talk about.
Speaker 2: And yes, I wouldn't necessarily that I'm in love with this.
Speaker 2: But how do you feel about the Philadelphia Eagles catching
Speaker 2: seven and a half against New Orleans?
Speaker 1: I have no idea how to analyze it with Hurts.
Speaker 1: I mean, talk me through it.
Speaker 2: Because I watching what what when Hurts came in, what
Speaker 2: I saw was a spark.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I saw an offense that was working. I sawur receivers
Speaker 2: getting open. I saw Sanders running hard. I saw the
Speaker 2: offensive line, which is a complete mess, but they're blocking
Speaker 2: well enough. And I think because the line's a mess,
Speaker 2: you need a mobile quarterback who can run around and
Speaker 2: Hurts can run over people. He's tough enough to run
Speaker 2: through linebackers if he needs to. So I think I
Speaker 2: saw something there that maybe go okay. And then Taysom
Speaker 2: Hill has been running the ball really effectively, but the
Speaker 2: you know, the run defense for the Eagles is not horrible. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so I wonder if you got I'm catching more than
Speaker 2: a touchdown here seven and a half. I think everyone's
Speaker 2: gonna gonna go. Oh, Taysom Hill and the Saints here
Speaker 2: we go. But it's their third consecutive road game for
Speaker 2: New Orleans, which is something you almost never see in
Speaker 2: the NFL. Three consecutive games on the road is really
Speaker 2: really rare. And if you want to go old school
Speaker 2: gambling adage, you always fade the team that's on the
Speaker 2: road for the third consecutive week.
Speaker 1: Right, and now is the road? I mean is it
Speaker 1: doesn't mean as much with the fact that there are
Speaker 1: like few or no fans in most stadiums.
Speaker 2: I think it's more travel. It's more that you're constantly
Speaker 2: on the move. You're never situated in your home or
Speaker 2: in your bed. You're always you know, getting up and flying.
Speaker 2: And then all the COVID protocols and everything else that
Speaker 2: goes into it. I just think this Saint I mean
Speaker 2: the Saints. I think they'll win the game. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: I'm catching seven and a half points. That hook matters
Speaker 2: to be a lot there.
Speaker 1: Well, it's funny because I'm looking at the consensus lines
Speaker 1: available in the market and it's six and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: So that would probably be a different story for you,
Speaker 1: right if that were the line and the.
Speaker 2: Go yeah, without a doubt. I mean, six and a
Speaker 2: half is dangerous. I still would look at it at
Speaker 2: six and a half, but seven and a half. It's
Speaker 2: on the list because it's seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, I mean I think that that one's kind
Speaker 1: of if for me, mainly just because I think what
Speaker 1: you're saying is right. First of all, the offense is
Speaker 1: going to look better, just because it can't possibly look worse.
Speaker 1: And what's funny is that as bad as that offense
Speaker 1: has looked, I mean, they should have covered against the
Speaker 1: Packers if not for the Aaron Jones like eighty yard
Speaker 1: run at the end, Right, they were going to cover
Speaker 1: that spread despite looking like the worst team in football.
Speaker 1: Their defense is legitimate, but it makes me a little
Speaker 1: nervous for me to not like really know what we're
Speaker 1: gonna you know, see from Hurtz. Given that now this
Speaker 1: is not a random let's put in this guy. Let's
Speaker 1: see what happens. Oh, everybody doesn't know how to react.
Speaker 1: Is he gonna run?
Speaker 2: Is he not?
Speaker 1: You know, suddenly these very very slow wide receivers are
Speaker 1: getting open. When you give a team with a very
Speaker 1: strong defense, you know, six days to prepare for the game,
Speaker 1: whether or not, it's still going to be quite that easy.
Speaker 1: So I think it's more something where if forced to
Speaker 1: pick a side, I think I would go Eagles, but
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm ready to put that one in
Speaker 1: the contest. So that's that's fair one. Let me throw
Speaker 1: out some other ugly games, which I also do not
Speaker 1: like at all. This is you know, if we talk
Speaker 1: about ugly teams, Matt that I'm like, why don't we
Speaker 1: bet on this team? It's usually the Falcons. You were
Speaker 1: surprised that I wasn't on them last WI. They are
Speaker 1: laying two and a half points to the Chargers. This
Speaker 1: is basically as much of a fade of Anthony Lynn
Speaker 1: and the Charters as it is to do anything with
Speaker 1: the Falcons. But the Falcons are playing better. I mean,
Speaker 1: let's talk.
Speaker 2: About I'm not I'm blow your mind here.
Speaker 1: You're on the Chargers. Yeah, Matt, Wow, Okay, that that's
Speaker 1: interesting to me, Matt. This is what I was looking
Speaker 1: this up today. Okay, so wayed DVA is basically takes
Speaker 1: new cat your most recent games, the worst, the worst
Speaker 1: team in the league in total DVOA offenseive defense. Who
Speaker 1: do you think it is? Who's the worst possible team
Speaker 1: in football? Right now? Forget about the Chargers. The worst
Speaker 1: possible team the Jets, right oh yeah, last their last
Speaker 1: in DVA. The second worst team in way to DVA
Speaker 1: is the Charger The best better teams than the Chargers,
Speaker 1: the Bengals, the Broncos, the Cowboys, the Jaguars, the Lions,
Speaker 1: the Eagles. They are second to last. They are playing terribly.
Speaker 1: They are incredibly terribly coached. And again I think I
Speaker 1: know Raheem Morris, the Falcons have been better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but laye, the Falcons be laying points to anybody.
Speaker 1: It's that's that's a very very fair point. That's a
Speaker 1: very fair point. And again, look again, I just like
Speaker 1: to see where generally the experts sort of go, just generally,
Speaker 1: how it breaks down and it's fifty eight percent around
Speaker 1: the Chargers. So I'm not an overwhelming sort of thing,
Speaker 1: but that that is probably the feeling about it, and
Speaker 1: it's on the road. But for me, Man, I don't know.
Speaker 1: At this point, I'm probably just gonna fade the Chargers
Speaker 1: every single time.
Speaker 2: See, I think Herbert's got a chance to put up
Speaker 2: a big number here. That's the crap defense.
Speaker 1: Yes, so I agree with that. I agree.
Speaker 2: That's why I don't. I'm not so worried about the
Speaker 2: Chargers defense as much as I think that Herbert throws
Speaker 2: for like three point fifty. Yeah, it just has a monster, monster.
Speaker 1: Game because you will talk about that, you know, back to.
Speaker 2: Back, back to back weeks. He hasn't done well. But
Speaker 2: I just think Herbert's going to bounce back. And it
Speaker 2: looked like he did about a month ago when he
Speaker 2: was passing the ball on everybody.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, I mean I think all of that is
Speaker 1: fair for me. I couldn't back there, Like, there's under
Speaker 1: no circumstances could I back the Chargers in any game
Speaker 1: at this point because I just I just don't feel confident.
Speaker 1: I mean, Matt, they were that game against the Patriots,
Speaker 1: we like the Patriots. We like them to win that game.
Speaker 2: I like it lost. I like the Pats the last
Speaker 2: two weeks. We've been on them the last two weeks.
Speaker 2: That's true, an hour off because it was I mean, look,
Speaker 2: this is sometimes you just see the board really clearly.
Speaker 2: This is what I said. I said, went over the Cardinals,
Speaker 2: went over the Chargers, last to the Rams. So that's true.
Speaker 1: Let's hope you're right. If you're listening right now, you
Speaker 1: know whether or not that was right right where they were?
Speaker 1: All right, So let's let's skip that game. You got
Speaker 1: a couple other games you thought that, Yes.
Speaker 2: Okay, I want to talk through Ravens Browns. Yes, okay.
Speaker 2: So we were talking about fading quarterbacks in fading Josh Allen,
Speaker 2: isn't this the greatest fade spot on Baker Mayfield? Given
Speaker 2: what he just did and all the hype and all
Speaker 2: the running around and all the wave and the arms
Speaker 2: and all the nonsense he was doing. Isn't this now
Speaker 2: the time to fade him and to say the Ravens
Speaker 2: are going to get right here and smash the Browns.
Speaker 1: It's on my list, Yeah, it's on my list. This
Speaker 1: is Monday night, I believe right, correct, And yeah, and
Speaker 1: the Ravens are laying one and a half in our
Speaker 1: contest right now, the consensus line is up to two
Speaker 1: and a half. So yeah, this has to be. And
Speaker 1: I like the Browns and I've got I've got a
Speaker 1: future that I'm feeling pretty good about. With Stefanski winning
Speaker 1: Coach of the Year, I think he's done a good
Speaker 1: job with this team. But this team, and you were
Speaker 1: on them also, Matt. I mean, I don't know whatever
Speaker 1: you were drinking last week, I want some of it,
Speaker 1: because you were all over the Browns too. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: let us take it. You were all over the Browns
Speaker 1: over the Titans in that game. But I'm I'm totally
Speaker 1: ready to fade the Browns in this spot. And I
Speaker 1: think the Ravens are going to They know what they
Speaker 1: need to do at this point. They know they basically
Speaker 1: got to win out essentially. I saw some stat that
Speaker 1: said there's like a forty chance that a ten win team,
Speaker 1: even with the extra playoffs, is going to miss the
Speaker 1: playoffs in the AFC. They've got to win. They know
Speaker 1: they've got to win. So yeah, I'm I'm totally good
Speaker 1: with fading the Browns and going with the Ravens in
Speaker 1: the spot for sure.
Speaker 2: I love this. Again, this is a short number to
Speaker 2: one and a half, so it's basically a pick. And
Speaker 2: I just think in terms of coaching, I like Stefanski,
Speaker 2: I do, but I think this is you know, you're
Speaker 2: getting into December, must win territory for the Ravens. They
Speaker 2: had their swoon and Lamar's back, Lamar's running, and I
Speaker 2: mean they should have all three of their running backs
Speaker 2: in this game. Coming up a Monday night, Yep, it's
Speaker 2: prime time for Baker Mayfield and oftentimes that means big
Speaker 2: time fade opportunity for Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 1: And again, I mean Zeke looked better than I expected
Speaker 1: and flooked. But I think if you've got another week
Speaker 1: of health from Brandon Williams and from Kalais Campbell, that
Speaker 1: the line that the run defense is going to be
Speaker 1: very good if you're going to force Baker Mayfield. And again,
Speaker 1: remember they don't really have any wide receiver that could
Speaker 1: possibly scare you. Jervis Sundry is a fine player at
Speaker 1: this point in his career, but Richard Higgins isn't scaring you.
Speaker 1: I mean, Austin Hooper is not. They've got to run
Speaker 1: the ball if the Ravens focus on taking that away.
Speaker 1: I also don't think that the Browns are really going
Speaker 1: to be able to stop you know, Lamar Jackson. They'll
Speaker 1: get Mark Andrews back. Hollywood brown is playing better. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I like it. I'm with you on that one. All right,
Speaker 1: let me throw out how do you feel about the
Speaker 1: Titans link seven and a half to the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of the games I've looked at closely,
Speaker 2: and boy, last week scared me a little bit because
Speaker 2: I was on the Jags last week plus ten against
Speaker 2: the Vikings, yep, and I just I'm wondering, can they
Speaker 2: keep the game close, like, because they're gonna throwing every
Speaker 2: down like they just oh yeah, they don't care. Jaggs
Speaker 2: don't care. Jags are just chucking the football all over
Speaker 2: the place. And I'm a little nervous about that defense
Speaker 2: for the Titans.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: He just got shredded by the Browns.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. The biggest thing for me is again,
Speaker 1: I don't I don't love this game. It's over a
Speaker 1: touchdown and the Jags have an innate ability to hang around.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Now, and again, remember last week, as much as they
Speaker 1: almost won that game. I mean that the first touchdown
Speaker 1: of the week was that preposterous catch by Leaviska Chanot,
Speaker 1: which should have been picked. Like they they're getting lucky
Speaker 1: to hang around, and you can see an angry Titans
Speaker 1: team in this one, right, an embarrassed Titans team. Now
Speaker 1: AJ Brown is not practiced this week, and he did
Speaker 1: hurt his ankle in that game. He came back, So
Speaker 1: if AJ Brown didn't play, I really wouldn't like them
Speaker 1: that much. But I don't like the seven and a half.
Speaker 1: That's the side on I'd be on, but I don't
Speaker 1: like it better. We have five games right now, Matt,
Speaker 1: and we'll get to them. But five games, though, like
Speaker 1: I'm totally fine with at this point. I don't like
Speaker 1: the Titans better than that. But if you were for
Speaker 1: us to choose a side, do you like them at
Speaker 1: seven and a half or would you?
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess so because Henry just runs the
Speaker 2: football like crazy and just you know, choose up the
Speaker 2: clock and they win like I don't know, like twenty
Speaker 2: eight ten or something like. Yeah, I can see it,
Speaker 2: but I mean I'm nervous about my Titans. Nine and
Speaker 2: a half win bet because much like the I feel
Speaker 2: like there was a couple, they're three teams I'm nervous about.
Speaker 2: In December, we talked about two of them, and the
Speaker 2: Titans are the third one that I was concerned about
Speaker 2: in December because that defensive performance was disgusting against the Browns.
Speaker 2: Now granted credit Stefanski. They practiced all week to stop
Speaker 2: Chubb and to stop Hunt, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: Baker came out and threw every down. They weren't ready
Speaker 2: for that. They were like, what are we doing? Are
Speaker 2: we practiced stopping the run and now we're stuck. And
Speaker 2: that showed a little bit of an inflexibility with with
Speaker 2: Mike Vrabel, which kind of exposed him a little bit
Speaker 2: there that they couldn't get out of their defensive sets.
Speaker 2: But I'm comfortable that they win. I don't know about
Speaker 2: the seven and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean my guess is that they will say, well,
Speaker 1: well we'll try this again. We'll stop James Robinson. Then
Speaker 1: if if Mike Lennon can beat us with you know,
Speaker 1: DJ Shark and Colin Johnson, will take our chances. But
Speaker 1: over a touchdown, I get nervous regardless I'm on that opportunity.
Speaker 1: I'm on that side. But yeah, I'm i'd be well
Speaker 1: in the past. Okay, any other games that you're kind
Speaker 1: of liking at all?
Speaker 2: No, not really, I mean, I mean I I looked
Speaker 2: at the I was if the Panthers had Christian McCaffrey,
Speaker 2: I would have taken to Panthers. But without Christian McCaffrey,
Speaker 2: that's a complete no play. Now I have to stay
Speaker 2: far far away from from that game. And it's really
Speaker 2: kind of frustrating because.
Speaker 1: And again they don't have DJ. I mean, I'm sure
Speaker 1: DJ Moore is not going to play, given that he's
Speaker 1: on the COVID list, and we don't even know if
Speaker 1: Curtis Sanduel is going to play because he's.
Speaker 2: You know close, and I can't I can't back drew locks.
Speaker 1: So it's like no, no, no, stay away game.
Speaker 2: That was the only side I would have with McCaffrey playing,
Speaker 2: would have I would have said, I would have been
Speaker 2: on the table here about three and a half for
Speaker 2: the Panthers, But just too much uncertainty, So that that
Speaker 2: was the old The other game that I was kind
Speaker 2: of looking at and then like gun to my head
Speaker 2: if I had to pick it. I would take the
Speaker 2: Jets plus thirteen and a half against.
Speaker 1: The Seas Also another game where there's no way for
Speaker 1: me to analyze that game and think that the value
Speaker 1: isn't on the Jets. Yeah, and there's no way I
Speaker 1: can back the Jets right in the game, like right, Like,
Speaker 1: that's what that game boils down to at this point.
Speaker 2: I mean, the pros will take it that the pros
Speaker 2: who bet the board it will take.
Speaker 1: The pros are going to pound that number without it
Speaker 1: that they will love the thirteen and a half. They
Speaker 1: will be more because that is value on the Jets.
Speaker 1: And the Jets, to their quote unquote credit, are playing
Speaker 1: better offensively. They're down Denzel mims that that's not gonna
Speaker 1: make a huge difference, but it does take away one
Speaker 1: of their weapons. But yeah, the Seahawks probably could win
Speaker 1: this game by twenty five points if they decided to
Speaker 1: do it. But you know the Seahawks, they like to
Speaker 1: play c looks games.
Speaker 2: It's just something to do up there. Though. Something's going
Speaker 2: on in Seattle. Something's not right right now with them.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if it's Pete Carroll or
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson believing his own press clippings too much, or
Speaker 2: you know, the league figuring out DK or what. But
Speaker 2: it's it's not looking great. The whole MVP Russ campaign
Speaker 2: has really stalled.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Now, I think that unless he goes nuts
Speaker 1: at the end, I think that that race is pretty
Speaker 1: much over. To the extent he was in it, I
Speaker 1: think he was down to Mahomes, maybe Rogers, maybe Allen
Speaker 1: if he has a huge finish, who knows. All Right,
Speaker 1: let's get to a couple other games here, and I
Speaker 1: have a slight lean on on a couple of them,
Speaker 1: but not strong. How do you feel about the Chiefs
Speaker 1: links seven and a half to the Dolphins in Miami?
Speaker 2: See two of playing leads me to bet the Chiefs. Yeah,
Speaker 2: so if it was Fitzpatrick, I would probably bet. I
Speaker 2: probably bet the Miami Dolphins if it was Fitzpatrick. But
Speaker 2: I just don't think two is the right guy to
Speaker 2: be playing right now. And I just can't believe that
Speaker 2: the team consistently wants to force Tua. And he's a
Speaker 2: game manager at best. He's accurate with the football, I
Speaker 2: get it, but like you know, you're gonna ride your defense,
Speaker 2: and the problem is when you're trying to stop the Chiefs. Yikes.
Speaker 2: I mean, you've got to be able to score with them.
Speaker 2: I don't care how good your defense is, you got
Speaker 2: to be able to score with them. I don't think
Speaker 2: Miami could score with them. So my only concern is
Speaker 2: just that Dolphins defense has been so good at turning
Speaker 2: the football over. What happens if they get a fubble,
Speaker 2: couple of picks or whatever it might be. And you know,
Speaker 2: the Chiefs haven't really been interested in killing people. They
Speaker 2: just want to win the games. True, they want to
Speaker 2: They want to go into the playoffs and that's when
Speaker 2: they'll really turn it on. But they're you know, they're
Speaker 2: winning games by four to five points a bit more
Speaker 2: too much for my liking to back them there.
Speaker 1: I agree that that really is the thing. They don't
Speaker 1: have the we're gonna win this game by twenty points
Speaker 1: at all. They just don't seem interested, like yeah, because
Speaker 1: you definitely think you see, you know, you get Hi
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You have forty five seconds and no timeouts
Speaker 1: to drive the entire field and it's like just a
Speaker 1: snap of his fingers and it's done. They could score
Speaker 1: whenever they want to do it, but they just don't
Speaker 1: seem interested in really going. You've got again the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: you mentioned it with their defense good at causing turnovers.
Speaker 1: But the chief I mean, Mahomes doesn't throw picks really,
Speaker 1: so you'd really need something crazy and that I do
Speaker 1: see the snare where the Chiefs get up big and
Speaker 1: you're going to force two it to chase points and
Speaker 1: I just don't think that's gonna be pretty. But I again,
Speaker 1: I don't love it at over a touchdown just because again,
Speaker 1: as you said, the Chiefs don't really put people away.
Speaker 1: How about the Bucks?
Speaker 2: The Bucks game is the clearest. You know, they had
Speaker 2: seventeen points in the first quarter, then they can out score
Speaker 2: seventeen to seven the rest of the way, right, so
Speaker 2: you know that that that's my fear is that like
Speaker 2: they'll get up big and go, okay, we're done. It's like, uh, guys,
Speaker 2: you got three quarters left and yeah, keep going and
Speaker 2: then they just don't care. So that that's a problem
Speaker 2: and it could burn them in the playoffs. But but
Speaker 2: that's a problem right now in terms of focusing for
Speaker 2: four quarters.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, all right. What do you think
Speaker 1: about the Packers link seven and a half to the
Speaker 1: Lions in Detroit.
Speaker 2: Hate the number. I would have bet it. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think, like I mentioned last week that you know,
Speaker 2: taking the Lions in a spot to go ahead and
Speaker 2: win because it's now three and oh for teams that
Speaker 2: after they fire their coach, they've won the next game outright.
Speaker 2: So we talked about it.
Speaker 1: I said, look, somebody pointed that out on Twitter.
Speaker 2: Way take a line. So I said, you know that
Speaker 2: this is just you know, forget about what's going on.
Speaker 2: They're gonna beat the Bears just simply because you know,
Speaker 2: they just fire Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn and then
Speaker 2: the fumble happens by you know, Mitchell Trubisky, which is
Speaker 2: you know, kind of like a redundant comment, but you know,
Speaker 2: go ahead, he just blow blows the game. And then
Speaker 2: so they go ahead and win it. And then there
Speaker 2: you go. So this is a classic letdown spot, right,
Speaker 2: you win a game you're not supposed to. Now it's
Speaker 2: introom coach, this interroom coach that they all know they're
Speaker 2: out at the end of the year, and you're taking
Speaker 2: on Aaron Rodgers who's still very much and not just
Speaker 2: the MVP race but also trying to contend for playoff
Speaker 2: positioning here. Yep, I just don't like the hook.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 2: On the road seven and a half just seems to
Speaker 2: be a little bit too That's that's a little bit
Speaker 2: too much.
Speaker 1: That's the exact analysis I have. I I like the
Speaker 1: Packers in this game. I think they're gonna win. The
Speaker 1: hook is the hook scares me too much because the.
Speaker 2: Teaser game, This is teaser. This is par two team
Speaker 2: teaser written all over all over it.
Speaker 1: I love the Teazers. I agree. Yeah, this is just
Speaker 1: something where once you're because you know you're gonna have
Speaker 1: Stafford will throw. There's not gonna be meany Kenny Gallay
Speaker 1: in this game. But they should have DeAndre Swift back.
Speaker 1: But regardless, they're gonna they're gonna find a way to
Speaker 1: put up points and keep it, you know, potentially from
Speaker 1: becoming a blowout. So I agree, over the heck, I
Speaker 1: don't like it. What about the Cowboys laying three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Bengals in Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: I can't I can't pick either team. I can't trust
Speaker 2: either team. They both stink. Both absolutely atrocious football teams.
Speaker 2: And it's just okay, who is gonna be worse? Like
Speaker 2: who's who's gonna be the worst of the two, And
Speaker 2: both our teams have backup quarterbacks, both have defenses to
Speaker 2: give up big numbers, both have significant injuries you have
Speaker 2: to worry about. I mean, the Cowboys have a better
Speaker 2: receiving corps obviously, but I mean, I no, just absolutely,
Speaker 2: this is like my least favorite game of the week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gross, it's gross. And again I think we
Speaker 1: can assume that Ryan Finley is going to be the
Speaker 1: quarterback for the Bengals, in which case, you know, I
Speaker 1: feel like, do you know the movie The Princess Bride,
Speaker 1: Matt all right, So I feel like it's that scene
Speaker 1: where Vizzini is trying to figure out the wine, like
Speaker 1: which one has?
Speaker 2: The character games? You know, the character names?
Speaker 1: Oh Mad want to if you ever want to go
Speaker 1: on to the culture or movies, we'll talk about all
Speaker 1: they life.
Speaker 2: I know the actor's name, I don't know the character's.
Speaker 1: Name, and he can say he's saying, you know, but
Speaker 1: you would have known that I know this, So I
Speaker 1: clearly cannot choose the wine in front of me. That's
Speaker 1: how I feel when I analyze this game, like this
Speaker 1: is why I cannot choose the beangals. This is why
Speaker 1: I cannot choose the Cowboys, so complete stay away from me.
Speaker 1: I'm glad you feel the same, what do you? I'm
Speaker 1: actually interesting to see what you think about this next one.
Speaker 1: The Texans are laying one and a half to the
Speaker 1: Bears in Chicago.
Speaker 2: See, there's a couple of things going on. One I
Speaker 2: don't like. If it was a Houston I would say
Speaker 2: a different story. It's outdoors in Chicago, so weather's a
Speaker 2: question there for me. Yeah, they don't run the football
Speaker 2: Texans do. You're throwing by crazy, So what happens if
Speaker 2: it's really cold and nasty? I haven't seen the weather yet,
Speaker 2: so but I can't. Again, this is another one of
Speaker 2: these teams with interim coaches. As we head towards the
Speaker 2: final four weeks, what are they playing for?
Speaker 1: Right? Like?
Speaker 2: What's the incentive for the Texans team to lay out
Speaker 2: for a receip to lay out and get his head
Speaker 2: taken off? What's the what's the incentive for a defensive
Speaker 2: lineman to go ahead and dive on a football or
Speaker 2: dive and make himself vulnerable. I just I don't know
Speaker 2: what these teams are playing for. I mean, maybe Matt
Speaker 2: Nagy's gonna be fired, but we know this new coach
Speaker 2: coming in Houston, so that's I just I can't trust
Speaker 2: either one of these teams, although I do think if
Speaker 2: you're picking on quarterbacks, Houston's got the better quarterback clearly coaches,
Speaker 2: though the Bears slightly have the better coach, have the
Speaker 2: better coach. It's it's it's hard. If I had to
Speaker 2: pick a side, I probably would take the home team.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I have been on both sides of this game
Speaker 1: to the extent I tried to pick a side, which
Speaker 1: I don't want to do because I just there are
Speaker 1: times you don't have to bet on every game. Everyone
Speaker 1: like you don't. You can you can take some some
Speaker 1: games off. I'm gonna be taking the Cowboys Bengals game off.
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be taking this one because I've talked
Speaker 1: myself into both sides of this game, which is really
Speaker 1: more that I've talked myself out of the other side
Speaker 1: of this game, because it's just something where I don't
Speaker 1: trust either team. I don't trust either quarterback, so I'm
Speaker 1: not going any near it. If you had brought it up,
Speaker 1: I would have just said, Nope, I've got nothing on it.
Speaker 1: And if you can convince me, then you are better
Speaker 1: at this than I have last game, I believe. I
Speaker 1: think we've touched everything else. The forty nine Ers laying
Speaker 1: three and a half to the Washington football team.
Speaker 2: Isn't this Yeah? Isn't this the classic letdown spot for Washington?
Speaker 2: Isn't just? Isn't this just the five six, seven point
Speaker 2: loss to the forty nine ers. They just run the
Speaker 2: ball down the throat and get out of there with
Speaker 2: a win. I mean, it's just. I mean that was
Speaker 2: a super Bowl performance. Alex Smith at three hundred yards passing,
Speaker 2: he was on fire. In the second half, Chase Young
Speaker 2: came to life that goal line. Stan was gigantic to
Speaker 2: play Chase Young made. They finally made a couple of
Speaker 2: big plays on Big Ben Late to intercept the football
Speaker 2: to win the football game. I mean, everything went right
Speaker 2: for them against the Steelers. I think it probably comes back.
Speaker 2: If I had to pick it, I'd say San Francisco.
Speaker 2: But I hate backup quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: I don't like the hook three and a half. It's
Speaker 1: three now the consensus line. I'd be much more willing
Speaker 1: to take the forty nine if you give in it
Speaker 1: and it was three and you wanted the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: I would take them because for all the reason this
Speaker 1: is like the this is like the you know you
Speaker 1: think about classic like you know, by low so high,
Speaker 1: I mean there is no what selling high. There is
Speaker 1: no selling higher than what Washington just did. The forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers just got obliterated by the Bills on national television.
Speaker 1: So that's a spot where you buy them low. So
Speaker 1: I would take them, But over the hook, I don't
Speaker 1: like it. So all right, Matt, I think we've got it.
Speaker 1: I think we've got the five and that is the
Speaker 1: Rams laying five and a half points to the Patriots
Speaker 1: unless the Patriots cover that spread, in which case we
Speaker 1: never picked it and you can't prove it. The Bucks
Speaker 1: laying six and a half to the Vikings, the Colts
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Raiders, the Steelers
Speaker 1: getting two and a half from the Bills, and the
Speaker 1: Ravens laying one and a half to the Browns.
Speaker 2: So say that again, So Bucks minus six and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bucks minus six and a half to the Vikes, right,
Speaker 1: the Colts minus two and a half to the Raiders,
Speaker 1: the Steelers getting two and a half from the Bills.
Speaker 2: I was nervous that we were going all favorites.
Speaker 1: No, we I know, I we really is. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's still too many favorites. But to be fair, like
Speaker 1: one of the favorites, the Ravens are laying.
Speaker 2: One and a half.
Speaker 1: That's not yeah, the Colts are laying two and a half, you.
Speaker 2: Know, favorites. Yeah, so so we have we we have
Speaker 2: four dogs, four favorites, one dog, but really two dogs
Speaker 2: skill Ravens. So it's exactly, I'm fine.
Speaker 1: Exactly yeah, works, yeah, and again, well we look where
Speaker 1: we're honest, we'll we'll let you know. If we changed
Speaker 1: one in this last one. I can't what did we
Speaker 1: change it too?
Speaker 2: Man?
Speaker 1: Other cults. We swapped in the Colts in this last one,
Speaker 1: and we took out the Chiefs, which was a good swap,
Speaker 1: a very good swap. And again that was a huge spread,
Speaker 1: which I just think we can't do with the Chiefs
Speaker 1: at this point anymore because they're not interested in all right,
Speaker 1: that is great. I will will tweet it out so
Speaker 1: when you'll know when we stopped recording this, because it's
Speaker 1: about to be a tweet that's going to come out
Speaker 1: that we're going to take this game but we are
Speaker 1: going to take the rams. I hope it goes well.
Speaker 1: I hope the rest of our pics go well as always.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to tune in two Matt's Lives. Matt, what
Speaker 1: have we decided to do now with the props that
Speaker 1: we're gonna do?
Speaker 2: Oh? Great point, Yeah, okay, so here's what we're gonna do.
Speaker 2: So your props are gonna be. We're gonna be my props.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet your props every week. Okay, so you're
Speaker 2: gonna give me five, I'm gonna bet it, and I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go ahead, and I'm going to tell everyone your props,
Speaker 2: which are becoming the Daily Juice live stream props every
Speaker 2: single week. So kind of combining our efforts here down
Speaker 2: the stretch, because you're doing all this great work to
Speaker 2: break down games and making projections. Normally you were giving
Speaker 2: two to three. But since I think you're on an
Speaker 2: eight and two run.
Speaker 1: I think actually I might be eight and oh. I
Speaker 1: think I lost the two before that. I think the
Speaker 1: last three weeks, I may be wrong. I think it
Speaker 1: might be eight and oh over the.
Speaker 2: Last that's possible. I think I was adding it up
Speaker 2: so very possible to eat in a row, and eight
Speaker 2: out of your last ten you've hit, so I think
Speaker 2: it's better. I've been going two and two or one
Speaker 2: and three pretty much every every Sunday, So I think
Speaker 2: it's better and smarter for the audience and better for
Speaker 2: the winning for the listeners to just take your props,
Speaker 2: make up my props, and go ahead and give them
Speaker 2: out on the live stream.
Speaker 1: I think that's totally fine. And again my process, just
Speaker 1: so everybody knows, I do actually projections because I project
Speaker 1: for my fantasy rankings, and then usually what I will
Speaker 1: do when I have time is I will compare my
Speaker 1: projections to the available props in the market. Part of
Speaker 1: the reason why I haven't been great about it with Matt,
Speaker 1: poor Matt on live room is like, where are the props, dude,
Speaker 1: And I'm like, oh, sorry, busy, is because my process
Speaker 1: of refining my projections is like a four or five
Speaker 1: hour process. Matt knows I'm almost always messaging him at
Speaker 1: like one am my time, two am on Saturday mornings,
Speaker 1: because that's what I do, That's how I need to do.
Speaker 1: I need to get all the available information. But we
Speaker 1: have been on a heater, so we will try to
Speaker 1: keep that going. We'll try to keep Matt's NFL betting
Speaker 1: going again. We're gonna take this through to the end
Speaker 1: of the year. Then we're going to figure out, you know,
Speaker 1: whatever we'll be doing with the playoffs. But thanks for
Speaker 1: sticking with us. Hopefully we'll get back and closer to
Speaker 1: finishing into the money again. My name is Dan Harris,
Speaker 1: that's Matt Parole. It can find us on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady and that Sports Talk Matt. And for now,
Speaker 1: we will talk to you next week and the same
Speaker 1: time
Speaker 2: He