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Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome back to another episode of the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros NFL podcast. I'm your host Dan Harris. With me,

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Speaker 1: of course, is Matt Perrault. You can find us on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at Dan Harris Adi and at Sports Talk Matt

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Speaker 1: the hottest NFL better that I've ever seen in my life. Matt,

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Speaker 1: What a week for you? Man?

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Speaker 2: Well, wasn't just the NFL. But yeah, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: when you get on a roll like this, you just

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Speaker 2: kind of ride it and you just hope that it

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Speaker 2: doesn't stop. I mean, at the time of taping, we've

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Speaker 2: hit twenty of our last twenty three bets on The

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice. If you got a bet late in uh

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Speaker 2: during the week on Wednesday, you actually won because I

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Speaker 2: got a worse number than actually what went off at

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Speaker 2: Wisconsin under basketball play that I had at one thirty

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Speaker 2: eight and one thirty four thirty three different books and

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Speaker 2: people bet it. By the time the more and came around,

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Speaker 2: the number had dropped so much that it was a

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Speaker 2: beneficiary to the to the Daily Juice audience. So really

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Speaker 2: it's twenty one and two for certain players out there.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean when it's like this, I went

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Speaker 2: five to oh in the Circa when five to oh

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Speaker 2: in the Westgate we went four and one. I mean,

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Speaker 2: just as it's been a crazy week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, first, sorry for keeping into just the NFL,

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Speaker 1: but you know that's when people are here for the PA,

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Speaker 1: So that's why I missed that. But number two, you

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Speaker 1: saw the board so clearly last week because even one

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Speaker 1: of the ones that we went to, which was the Colts,

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Speaker 1: like we kind of looked out in that game, you

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Speaker 1: were on the other side. That was it, right, right,

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Speaker 1: You were on the other side of that one originally.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I wanted the Texans, and I mean it

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Speaker 2: very easily could have been the Texans if it wasn't

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Speaker 2: for that fumble body Sean Watson. Yeah, that's the right side.

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Speaker 1: That was the right side. Yeah, but whatever, we'll take it. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: as as you said on the Daily Juice, things even out.

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Speaker 1: This is the whole point of how it works. But

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Speaker 1: we'll break down every game this weekend. Let's recap the

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Speaker 1: the DraftKings contest. As Matt said, we went four and one.

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Speaker 1: We hit on the saintslaning two and a half to

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Speaker 1: the Falcons. The Colts lank three and a half to

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Speaker 1: the Texans, as I just mentioned the Patriots are getting

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Speaker 1: a half a point from the Chargers. That was not close,

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Speaker 1: the Washington football team getting eight and a half from

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Speaker 1: the Steelers, and we missed on the Raiders leank seven

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Speaker 1: and a half to the Jets. I said last week

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Speaker 1: on the show that I thought Matt and I needed

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Speaker 1: to go fourteen and one over our final three weeks.

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Speaker 1: Remember we have one bye week still to go. Matt

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Speaker 1: attacked my math as usual Maclos, and he later on

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Speaker 1: realized that he was wrong. So we do need to

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Speaker 1: We did need to go fourteen to one to hit

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Speaker 1: sixty percent right now, that is still the cutoff for

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Speaker 1: being in the money. We went four and one, so

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Speaker 1: we've got to sweep. We've got to sleep right now.

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Speaker 1: It may not end up that way, maybe a little lower,

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Speaker 1: but right now, that's where it is. So let's get

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Speaker 1: into this right now. Matt out, what's that? Where are

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Speaker 1: we We're at the low two hundreds out of six

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Speaker 1: hundred and ninety one two top we're two hundred fifteen.

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Speaker 1: I think, oh, okay, yeah, we're there. I mean, and

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Speaker 1: I think the top eighty right now are getting paid

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Speaker 1: because it's tied and stuff like that. So we're there.

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Speaker 1: We gained I don't know, one hundred spots last week

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Speaker 1: with a four and one. We will move up if

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Speaker 1: we get it, and I remember a lot of people.

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Speaker 1: You know. It depends on the bye weeks that are remaining.

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Speaker 1: We have won, so one of the next three weeks

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Speaker 1: could be this week. Don't know for sure. We have

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Speaker 1: to take one of our bye weeks. But Matt, let

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Speaker 1: me ask you. Because we don't talk about this other

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Speaker 1: than one pick, which we'll get to, which my guess

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Speaker 1: is gonna be your top pick. We don't talk about

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Speaker 1: it much. Are you loved last week? I didn't you

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Speaker 1: loved last week?

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Speaker 2: Coming in?

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Speaker 1: Do you love this week? Asma?

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Speaker 2: I don't love it. I like it, I don't love it.

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Speaker 2: I'm coming around on it, but I'm in the like

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm in the beginning part of dating. I'm

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Speaker 2: not noting it yet, but I'm close. I'm coming around.

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Speaker 2: There are games I like.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's talk about it now. Let's start with you.

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Speaker 1: And you know, there was one game that we talked about,

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Speaker 1: and there was a game that we had to talk

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Speaker 1: about because it's a game that if we'd like. By

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Speaker 1: the time people are listening, to this, we will have

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Speaker 1: already played and if so, we will play it on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: Is that your number one pick of the weekend, Matt.

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Speaker 2: It is, and it's it's if you listen to the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice, you already have this. But I'm all over

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Speaker 2: the Rams tonight, and I think this is if you

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Speaker 2: look at the ultra of point spreads in Vegas, it's

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Speaker 2: ten and a half. For a reason, because I think

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Speaker 2: this is a ten point victory for the Rams tonight.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the Patriots are gonna score. I think

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Speaker 2: the Unders a play as well, but I think the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: I have it at twenty seven seventeen somewhere in that range,

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Speaker 2: twenty four to fourteen, somewhere in that range here for

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Speaker 2: the Rams. And I don't get the Patriot love. I

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Speaker 2: don't get the Patriot play. I don't get the money

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Speaker 2: coming in on the Patriots. I know all these stats

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Speaker 2: are pointing towards the Patriots on a Thursday night victory

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Speaker 2: short you know, short week they stayed out there out west.

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Speaker 2: If you're beating the Chargers forty five, nothing, blah blah blah,

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Speaker 2: all those stats have Tom Brady at the quarterback spot,

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Speaker 2: not Cam Newton. Don't think the Patriots can score it

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Speaker 2: all here against the Rams. I think it's a complete

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Speaker 2: mismatch right now. For what the Patriots are good at doing.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they're going to be able to move

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Speaker 2: the ball. And I think you can play man de

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Speaker 2: man defense with Jalen Ramsey in that secondary and put

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Speaker 2: eight in the box and say go ahead and try

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Speaker 2: to run the football. And the Patriots, I don't think

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Speaker 2: they've got an offensive line capable of blowing out holes

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Speaker 2: like that, So Rams ten points are more tonight.

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Speaker 1: I can usually I feel like make a case for

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Speaker 1: myself as to how one team's gonna win a game,

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Speaker 1: especially when it's a single digit spread like this and

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Speaker 1: under a touchdown. It's really hard for me to see away.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is dumb because people, by the time

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Speaker 1: they're listening to this, this game has been played already,

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Speaker 1: so I don't want to go crazy with it. It

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Speaker 1: really is tough to see the way that the Patriots

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Speaker 1: win and the consensus spread, by the way, it's five

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Speaker 1: and a half in our contest, which, by the way,

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Speaker 1: one lesson I've learned is that the Matt peraltisms are

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Speaker 1: full of nonsense. Okay, Matt, but I will make a

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Speaker 1: rule until it's not a role.

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Speaker 2: Also, have I bet a five and a half?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so, I hold my rules.

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Speaker 2: I'm betting this one because I don't care. You can

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Speaker 2: give me up to nine and a half and I'm

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Speaker 2: still taking the rams.

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Speaker 1: All right. The other thing that I've learned is that

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Speaker 1: if I'm on a position, Matt usually won't listen to me.

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Speaker 1: But if he goes and talks to quote unquote smart

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Speaker 1: people who are also on the same side, He's willing

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Speaker 1: to be convinced.

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Speaker 2: But regardless of course, Well, what't I do? I got it?

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Speaker 1: I got it. What's weird, man, is the consensus line

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Speaker 1: that we're showing like a cross is four and a half,

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Speaker 1: not even five.

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Speaker 2: There will be books before this game kicks off that

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Speaker 2: will be at four.

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Speaker 1: Why, I mean, I legitimately can't figure it out other

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Speaker 1: than you.

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Speaker 2: Know, Belichick versus Anthony Lynn has them convinced that it's

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Speaker 2: Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay is as big of mismatches

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Speaker 2: last week.

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Speaker 1: That's not though Anthony Karen is like in a class

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Speaker 1: by himself. I mean, I agreeing them obviously, they they

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Speaker 1: you know, in the Super Bowl, like they they figured

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Speaker 1: out how to you know, keep the Rams from scoring points,

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Speaker 1: but they had different personality. The only way I really

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Speaker 1: see this is if, like the differential and special teams,

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Speaker 1: Patriots are really good, you know, sink right, they're third

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Speaker 1: in DVOA and special teams, the Rams are thirty. So

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Speaker 1: it's gonna take something like that. So I'm gonna put it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, think about the logic of that, though. You're

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Speaker 2: gonna bet no, you're right that the Patriots are gonna

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Speaker 2: score points in special teams where it hadn't happened all year,

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Speaker 2: and they blocked a field goal for a touchdown, had

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Speaker 2: a punt return for a touchdown. So it's gonna happen

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Speaker 2: in back to back weeks after not happening all year.

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Speaker 2: Come on, that's ridiculous.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be in the picks. And by the time you're listening

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Speaker 1: to this, we're either probably really happy or really we.

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Speaker 2: Haven't take any advantage. I mean that there have been

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Speaker 2: numerous Thursday games we tape this on Thursday this season

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Speaker 2: that we both have liked and said, oh, well, it's Thursday,

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Speaker 2: we're taping it. We're not going to take it. And

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Speaker 2: we have not taken advantage of the rule that you

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Speaker 2: can place one bet Thursday. That's it, the one pick,

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Speaker 2: and then the other four later in the weekend. So

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Speaker 2: we haven't taken advantage of this. And I just think

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Speaker 2: this is a situation will play for me. Patriots back

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Speaker 2: to back weeks on the West Coast, and look, take

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Speaker 2: all these numbers about like teams that were favored on

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Speaker 2: the road that win and come back at home on

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Speaker 2: a Thursday at home lose. They're three to nine and

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Speaker 2: one against the number. You know, I don't care. I

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Speaker 2: don't care what numbers are. It's this Patriots team without

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Speaker 2: much talent in the on the wide receiver and corps,

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Speaker 2: no tight end to catch the football. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: already saw the Damien Harris wildcat against the Chargers, so

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Speaker 2: you can't even you know, you can't even shock them

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Speaker 2: by going with that because they've already seen it. So

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Speaker 2: I mean, look again tomorrow when this drops, I might

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Speaker 2: be looking like an idiot, But if the Patriots win

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Speaker 2: this game, I'm ecstatic as a Patriot fan. I'm in love.

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Speaker 2: I don't see it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, the best thing I could say is

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Speaker 1: that I think the public's still because of Belichick and

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Speaker 1: because of the leftovers from Brady looks to get excited

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Speaker 1: about the Patriots. And you know, a game where they

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Speaker 1: win forty five to nothing and they beat Arizona that

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Speaker 1: I could see the money coming in necessarily on the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: but the sharp players. This just doesn't seem like the

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Speaker 1: right line to me.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's what I don't get because I don't

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Speaker 2: see everyone I'm talking to. It's Rams, Rams, Rams, right,

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Speaker 2: and then people that are on Twitter like, well, the

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Speaker 2: experts are picking the Patriots. I'm like, what experts picking

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Speaker 2: the Patriots? No one I'm talking to, So I mean,

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Speaker 2: no one I see, no one. I follow everyone that

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Speaker 2: I know is on the Rams big tonight. So I

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Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, I feel comfortable with the people

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Speaker 2: I trust that they like you, and other people feel like,

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Speaker 2: how are the Patriots scoring in? Belichick's a master, But

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is a really tough spot in my mind.

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Speaker 1: Yeah me too. So I'm almost positive we're going to

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Speaker 1: be picking this game. So I'm gonna put in right

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Speaker 1: now with pencil, but we're going to assume that's in,

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Speaker 1: and then we'll have a fun night going on here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I have so that that was actually my number one,

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Speaker 1: But that shows you just kind of how I knew

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Speaker 1: you were going to go with it. So I figured

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Speaker 1: that we were going to go with it. I don't

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Speaker 1: have strong feel like I have like five or six

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Speaker 1: games that I'm like, all right, I could do.

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Speaker 2: Well. There's one stat to bring up here, So ten

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Speaker 2: of the sixteen games this year have road favorites. So

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Speaker 2: it's an awkward week for that reason. We got a

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Speaker 2: lot of short lines. Yeah, there's not a lot of

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Speaker 2: big lines, but a lot of short road favorites, like

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Speaker 2: two and a half, one and a half threes all

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Speaker 2: over the board, which is kind of tough because it's

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Speaker 2: really okay on neutral field, it's a six point line

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Speaker 2: if your favorite on the road by three. So it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a difficult week for that reason.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, so here's what I'm gonna throw this one out.

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Speaker 1: But don't you know this is not a this is

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Speaker 1: my number one or my number two. Like it's legitterally

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Speaker 1: as large.

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Speaker 2: Literally that's a great word. Legitterally. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Wow, Yeah, how about there, I'm gonna go with the

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Speaker 1: bucks laying six and a half to the Vikings in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: So here's my rationale and then we can talk about it. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The Bucks are, of course off of Bye, which I

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Speaker 1: think is pretty important. I don't know if there's ever

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Speaker 1: been one. I should research it, whether there's ever been

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Speaker 1: a week thirteen by and for an old you know,

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Speaker 1: quarterback like Brady, but just for the team, I think

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Speaker 1: they really needed to catch their breath. There are a

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Speaker 1: couple of concerns here. Mike Evans, you know, was downgraded.

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Speaker 1: You know, he was still battling the hamstring. Then I

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Speaker 1: guess he didn't play today, which never is a good sign.

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Speaker 1: But Chris Godwin sounds like he's going to be fine.

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Speaker 1: Ali Marpt is finally going to come back. That's a

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Speaker 1: big sort of thing. And really I think when the

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Speaker 1: Bucks struggled, they just struggle against good defenses the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: If they could get pressure, fine, but they don't get

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Speaker 1: a ton of pressure. They're dealing with injuries themselves. With

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Speaker 1: Hendrix who's down on defense, Kyle Rudolph doesn't sound good

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Speaker 1: like he's gonna go I think, really, you know, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to stop Dalvin Cook. For the most part,

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Speaker 1: Cook is fantastic, but it's a great run defense. And

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Speaker 1: then I think you're gonna put it in Kirk Cousins hands,

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Speaker 1: like good luck. You know. I like to fade Kirk Cousins,

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Speaker 1: and we talked about how last week. So I think

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Speaker 1: this is a game where the Bucks actually come out

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Speaker 1: they need to win. They come out at home and

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Speaker 1: put up a big number on the board and under

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Speaker 1: a touchdown, I feel okay about it. So the Bucks

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Speaker 1: selling six and half is one of my pals.

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Speaker 2: I like it. It's on my list. I like it,

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Speaker 2: and I like it for a couple of reasons. One

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Speaker 2: Brady over a. You know, coming out of the by,

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Speaker 2: traditionally Tom Brady. You know this is with Belichick obviously,

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Speaker 2: but coming out of the by, they normally have new wrinkles.

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Speaker 2: They normally put in either new route trees or they

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Speaker 2: put in new type of alignments, and so it changes

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Speaker 2: up what they were doing. And I think Bruce arians

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Speaker 2: will be smart enough to do this. The only reason

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Speaker 2: why I hesitate, the only reason why it's not higher

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Speaker 2: on my list is because I am hoping and I

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Speaker 2: am borderline praying that Bruce as has changed the offense

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Speaker 2: during the bye week to incorporate more short passes to

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Speaker 2: stop this down the field crap and just I know

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Speaker 2: you got Mike Evans and Godwin and whatnot, but let's

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Speaker 2: talk about slant routes. Let's talk about you know, guys

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Speaker 2: in the slot. Let's let's bring back what was working

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Speaker 2: earlier in the year with Scottie Miller. Let's use the

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Speaker 2: tight ends as much as they were before, not just

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Speaker 2: in the red zone. If they do that, I think

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Speaker 2: they'll put up a big number here, and they'll score

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Speaker 2: a lot on that secondary for the Vikings, and I

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Speaker 2: think they'll cover the line easily. So that's my only

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Speaker 2: hesitation that is Bruce arians really that stubborn or does

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Speaker 2: he finally wake up and realize what he's got at

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Speaker 2: quarterback and put in better pass plays for his quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So I think he's been disappointing already, the fact that

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Speaker 1: he's like, why are you still doing this? Like you

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Speaker 1: and I can sit here and watch this and as

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Speaker 1: smart as the two of us are and as much

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Speaker 1: football as we watch, like he's an NFL coach, Like

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Speaker 1: we know that this is not the game plan you

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Speaker 1: should be running right now with Tom Brady, Like it's

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Speaker 1: very clear what you should be doing. So the fact

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Speaker 1: that he hasn't done it yet is wrecking. But again

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Speaker 1: I agree off of By, they need to win at

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Speaker 1: this point. This is nothing. And again this is much

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Speaker 1: a fade of Kirk Cousins, which you know we like,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're always like, when's the Kirk Cousins fade game?

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Speaker 1: It really was last week. I guess.

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Speaker 2: Yes, this is a team.

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Speaker 1: This is a team that could have easily lost to

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Speaker 1: the Mike Glennon led Jacksonville Jaguars. They're just not that good.

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Speaker 1: I think the Bucks come out here. I think they

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Speaker 1: make a little bit of a statement. So I do

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Speaker 1: like the game. Again, not not something far and away,

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Speaker 1: but let's put it on the pencil list and we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about it going in. But we're on the same side,

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Speaker 1: so that's good. Who's your next one?

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Speaker 2: Okay, So I've got two teams that I'm really concerned

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Speaker 2: about in December as to what they've done early versus

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Speaker 2: what they've done late. One's the Raiders and one's the Cardinals. First,

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Speaker 2: let's start with the Raiders, Indianapolis and our pool laying

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Speaker 2: two and a half. There's been money here that's trying

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Speaker 2: to push this to three. It probably will be three

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Speaker 2: by the time the game kicks off or higher. But

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Speaker 2: I'm really concerned about where the Raiders are, and I

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Speaker 2: think there are some legitimate issue with that offensive line.

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Speaker 2: With no Regie in cognito, they're not running the ball

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Speaker 2: nearly as successfully as they were. Derek Carr, after starting

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Speaker 2: out really hot, has now started to turn the football

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Speaker 2: over and starting to really regress. Yes, Waller is an

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Speaker 2: absolute beast, and I love the guy, but I mean,

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Speaker 2: Agalar's come around a little bit. I know you've got

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Speaker 2: some third down guys who can move the chains. But

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Speaker 2: just the fact that the Jets were in that game,

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Speaker 2: and they should have won the game if it wasn't

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Speaker 2: for what I call heard it today a suicide play

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Speaker 2: call by Greg Williams, which I thought was an awesome

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Speaker 2: way of describing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the zerog Williams is my hero. Don't worry about it.

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Speaker 1: Greg Williams is my hero.

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Speaker 2: That he did did to go ahead, hit Ruggs down

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Speaker 2: the sidelines, Ruggs fumble in the football and not looking

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Speaker 2: good all that, I mean, that game was on him.

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Speaker 2: If it wasn't for Yeah, it wasn't for that. I

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Speaker 2: just think Indianapolis because there's no pressure coming on Philip Rivers.

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Speaker 2: I think Pittman has really stepped up and played nicely.

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously you got t Y. The running games

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Speaker 2: come around. I think Indianapoli is just a much better

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Speaker 2: overall football team here. I'm laying less than on a

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Speaker 2: field goal. I want Indianapolis mist two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm good with that. I again, let's right now.

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Speaker 1: I think we're on the you know, we've got three

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Speaker 1: games that I feel pretty decent about. It was on

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Speaker 1: my list. I have backed the Colts a lot this year.

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Speaker 1: This game against the Texans scared me a little bit

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Speaker 1: because I really thought that this was one that the

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Speaker 1: fact that you probably should have lost to a team

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Speaker 1: without will Fuller, without Roby really nerve wrecking. Rivers is

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Speaker 1: clearly hobbled by the toe. But I agree they found

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Speaker 1: a way to get t Y Hilton involved, whether he

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Speaker 1: was fully healthy or not. They still have Michael Pittman Jr.

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Speaker 1: They are thankfully turning it over to Jonathan Taylor on

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Speaker 1: the ground a little more, and their offensive line, by

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Speaker 1: the way, is getting healthy. That is a big deal

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Speaker 1: for them. They were beat up a little bit. I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to be basically at full strength in

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Speaker 1: this game. So yeah, I'm good with this. It's one

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Speaker 1: of the ones that was on my list, so I

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Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. And yeah, and again I

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Speaker 1: like to just see what the general our consensus is,

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Speaker 1: and about seventy four percent are on India as well.

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Speaker 1: That seems to be the right side underfield goal, Matt, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that seems to be the right side to me. Now,

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Speaker 1: what was the other one that you were talking about, Arizona?

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Speaker 2: No, well, yeah, so the Giants are catching two and

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Speaker 2: a half points against the Cardinals at home. Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: just I think the much like the Cardinals, much like

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Speaker 2: the Raiders. The Cardinals are flailing and the Giants are

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Speaker 2: playing really good smash mouth December football. I like what

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Speaker 2: Joe Judge is doing. I don't care who played with,

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Speaker 2: whether you Colt McCoy or Danny Dimes, I don't really care.

382
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Speaker 2: I know getting Fitzgerald back is big, but he lost

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Speaker 2: nine pounds during his COVID nineteen battle and he definitely

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Speaker 2: is not going to be one hundred percent. You just

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Speaker 2: don't come back. I've had this starn virus. You don't

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Speaker 2: come back that fast and you're you know, look what

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Speaker 2: happened to Cam Newton. Look how kind of you you.

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Speaker 2: Sometimes you're just in a mind fog. I was in

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Speaker 2: a brain fog for a good month and a half

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Speaker 2: after COVID. It's just it's not something you want to

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Speaker 2: play around with. I just think the Cardinals are in trouble.

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Speaker 2: I think this is the schedule is going against them.

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Speaker 2: I don't think Kyler mur is healthy. And the Giants,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I just think they're coming around and they're

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Speaker 2: playing really good football in December, catching two and a

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Speaker 2: half points at home. I like the Giants.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate it. It's not one of my favorite.

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Speaker 1: Like I don't put it in the same bucket as

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Speaker 1: you know, the Colts with the Raiders, I would lean

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Speaker 1: that way. If I'm if I'm forced to pick a side,

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Speaker 1: I would. It's just it's, you know, it's weird, Matt.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes I find it hard even where IN'SO week fourteen,

403
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Speaker 1: you know, and you know I look at players really

404
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Speaker 1: closely because I protect and everything before the season coming in.

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Speaker 1: It's just hard for they're playing really well, the Giants,

406
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Speaker 1: their defense in particular, and if it's legitimate, then yeah,

407
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 1: this is the right side for sure. And again Murray,

408
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Speaker 1: it's a lot of it is on Murray, who doesn't

409
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Speaker 1: look fully healthy. I just don't. I don't. I don't

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Speaker 1: feel that comfortable with it.

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Speaker 2: Like he just stopped running. Murray stopped running. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I know he's their best weapon. He just know it

413
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Speaker 2: has to be because he's not healthy. He's just not

414
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Speaker 2: scattering around like he normally does, picking up first downs

415
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Speaker 2: and burning defenses.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, all right, let's put it on the maybe list.

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Speaker 2: I do.

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Speaker 1: I will really want to know your feelings on this one, Matt,

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Speaker 1: because again, you were the Bills fader the whole season,

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Speaker 1: on the list all you were all over.

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Speaker 2: Them on the list. They're on the list.

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Speaker 1: Wait, they're on the list to take the Bills. Oh no,

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Speaker 1: the Steelers. Oh yes, good, that's where I'm at, too,

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Speaker 1: very good. Okay, I got nervous for a second. They're

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Speaker 1: getting two and a half points against the Bills. This

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Speaker 1: strikes me as massive overreaction to me as to what

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Speaker 1: we saw. The Bills looked awesome.

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Speaker 2: Aline flipped five points.

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Speaker 1: Is that what it was?

430
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 2: It flipped five points? It was two and a half

431
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 2: for the Steelers. It's not two and a half for

432
00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 2: the Bills. Yeah, five points, get out of.

433
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:44,640
Speaker 1: Here, and they look great. And you were on that game.

434
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 1: You were all over that game. I was on the

435
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:47,919
Speaker 1: other side of that game. Frankly, I thought that the

436
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers find a way to win. They weren't

437
00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:51,680
Speaker 1: even close. Yeah, you were all over that. And it's

438
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 1: like the Steelers, I mean, give me a break, Like

439
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 1: they can lose a game. Everyone's like, they're not going

440
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,400
Speaker 1: to go undefeated on the season. Big deals. Washington football

441
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: team is underrated. They have a very strong defense. What

442
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 1: does make me nervous is the fact that they are

443
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:10,320
Speaker 1: so horribly beat up at linebacker at this point. I mean,

444
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 1: Robert Splaine is down, Vince Williams just went on the

445
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,119
Speaker 1: COVID list. They're really beat up there. Even Hayden has

446
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 1: hurt a little bit. But there are spots. I think

447
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 1: the one thing that you can think about is Mike

448
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 1: Tomlin is kind of a really predictable coach when it

449
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 1: comes to betting, right, you fade him when they're like favorites,

450
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 1: right when it's the game that you know they should win,

451
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 1: and when there's a ra ra moment, when there's a

452
00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 1: people aren't believing in me, you know this is what

453
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: we need to come up. That's when you jump right

454
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,639
Speaker 1: on because he is an incredible motivational coach. Josh Allen

455
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 1: looked like the best quarterback in football this past week,

456
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,399
Speaker 1: but we've seen it. We've seen it now for a

457
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 1: couple of seasons. He is super inconsistent. He's gonna come

458
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,400
Speaker 1: out one day, he's going to look like the best

459
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:56,240
Speaker 1: quarterback in football, and the next day's gonna be like, what

460
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: is this human being doing at this moment with the ball?

461
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:00,960
Speaker 1: So sounds like I don't really need to convince you

462
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 1: the home field advantage by the way. You know that

463
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:06,240
Speaker 1: like I fear Buffalo when there are fans there like that,

464
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,440
Speaker 1: that's when it gets nervous. Now, I don't that means

465
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 1: nothing at this point.

466
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: I also think if you go back and watch the

467
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 2: game against Washington, how many drops did Ebron have? Nine?

468
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: They always have the many. The unfortunate part is that

469
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 1: they are always dropping those balls like Deontay Johnson and

470
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 1: Eric Gebron their drop machines. But my guess is though

471
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 1: that like I wouldn't want to be like playing for

472
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 1: Tomlin at this point if with all those drops.

473
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 2: Right, well, in the Ravens game. That didn't look good, right, So,

474
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 2: I mean they've played a bunch of games where they've

475
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 2: had to play a ton of Look, I just think

476
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 2: this is a primetime game. Everyone's selling on the Steelers.

477
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:41,440
Speaker 2: You know, maybe they'll run the ball a bit more.

478
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 2: I mean, the Bills can't stop running anybody running the football,

479
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:46,120
Speaker 2: so I think that maybe they kind of go back

480
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,919
Speaker 2: to old school Steeler football and run.

481
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 1: With That's a little right, That's that's part of the

482
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: unfortunate part is that the Steelers really have no run

483
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: game at this point. They were beat up on the

484
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 1: offensive line, but they choose just to throw. That's fine,

485
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,640
Speaker 1: but you're gonna I don't know. Also, this last game,

486
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 1: and I'm I'm analyzing it more from a fantasy football perspective,

487
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 1: I do not know why Chase Claypole suddenly was not

488
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 1: on the field nearly as much as he had been

489
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 1: in the past. He's a great playmaker. My guess is

490
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: they'll get him out there more. So. Yeah, I just

491
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 1: think this is a bounce back spot.

492
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love it. I mean two and a half

493
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,440
Speaker 2: catching two and a half, I'll bet it. I'm waiting

494
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: to see if I can get three or yeah, right,

495
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 2: So I mean before I bet it, I want three

496
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 2: or higher. But it's a primetime game for the Pittsburgh

497
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 2: Steelers here to come back. And I mean, look, anytime

498
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:28,679
Speaker 2: I can fade Josh Allen.

499
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, I know. And after a game where you

500
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 1: were like, nah, Bill's, Bill's for sure Bill's, I was like, wow, okay,

501
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: I don't know where we are, so yeah, okay, good,

502
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: that's another one. Then all right, what do you got?

503
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: You got any others that you like?

504
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 2: So there's a couple other that I want to talk about.

505
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,359
Speaker 2: And yes, I wouldn't necessarily that I'm in love with this.

506
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: But how do you feel about the Philadelphia Eagles catching

507
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,000
Speaker 2: seven and a half against New Orleans?

508
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 1: I have no idea how to analyze it with Hurts.

509
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 1: I mean, talk me through it.

510
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 2: Because I watching what what when Hurts came in, what

511
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 2: I saw was a spark.

512
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 1: Yeah.

513
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 2: I saw an offense that was working. I sawur receivers

514
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: getting open. I saw Sanders running hard. I saw the

515
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 2: offensive line, which is a complete mess, but they're blocking

516
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: well enough. And I think because the line's a mess,

517
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: you need a mobile quarterback who can run around and

518
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: Hurts can run over people. He's tough enough to run

519
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,760
Speaker 2: through linebackers if he needs to. So I think I

520
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: saw something there that maybe go okay. And then Taysom

521
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 2: Hill has been running the ball really effectively, but the

522
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 2: you know, the run defense for the Eagles is not horrible. Yeah,

523
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 2: so I wonder if you got I'm catching more than

524
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 2: a touchdown here seven and a half. I think everyone's

525
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 2: gonna gonna go. Oh, Taysom Hill and the Saints here

526
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 2: we go. But it's their third consecutive road game for

527
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 2: New Orleans, which is something you almost never see in

528
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 2: the NFL. Three consecutive games on the road is really

529
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: really rare. And if you want to go old school

530
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:43,199
Speaker 2: gambling adage, you always fade the team that's on the

531
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 2: road for the third consecutive week.

532
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: Right, and now is the road? I mean is it

533
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 1: doesn't mean as much with the fact that there are

534
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 1: like few or no fans in most stadiums.

535
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 2: I think it's more travel. It's more that you're constantly

536
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: on the move. You're never situated in your home or

537
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: in your bed. You're always you know, getting up and flying.

538
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 2: And then all the COVID protocols and everything else that

539
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 2: goes into it. I just think this Saint I mean

540
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: the Saints. I think they'll win the game. Yeah, but

541
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,439
Speaker 2: I'm catching seven and a half points. That hook matters

542
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 2: to be a lot there.

543
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: Well, it's funny because I'm looking at the consensus lines

544
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: available in the market and it's six and a half. Now,

545
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 1: So that would probably be a different story for you,

546
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: right if that were the line and the.

547
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: Go yeah, without a doubt. I mean, six and a

548
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 2: half is dangerous. I still would look at it at

549
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 2: six and a half, but seven and a half. It's

550
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: on the list because it's seven and a half.

551
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, I mean I think that that one's kind

552
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 1: of if for me, mainly just because I think what

553
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: you're saying is right. First of all, the offense is

554
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: going to look better, just because it can't possibly look worse.

555
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 1: And what's funny is that as bad as that offense

556
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 1: has looked, I mean, they should have covered against the

557
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 1: Packers if not for the Aaron Jones like eighty yard

558
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 1: run at the end, Right, they were going to cover

559
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: that spread despite looking like the worst team in football.

560
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: Their defense is legitimate, but it makes me a little

561
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 1: nervous for me to not like really know what we're

562
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: gonna you know, see from Hurtz. Given that now this

563
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 1: is not a random let's put in this guy. Let's

564
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 1: see what happens. Oh, everybody doesn't know how to react.

565
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 1: Is he gonna run?

566
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 2: Is he not?

567
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: You know, suddenly these very very slow wide receivers are

568
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: getting open. When you give a team with a very

569
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: strong defense, you know, six days to prepare for the game,

570
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 1: whether or not, it's still going to be quite that easy.

571
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 1: So I think it's more something where if forced to

572
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 1: pick a side, I think I would go Eagles, but

573
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: I don't think I'm ready to put that one in

574
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 1: the contest. So that's that's fair one. Let me throw

575
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: out some other ugly games, which I also do not

576
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: like at all. This is you know, if we talk

577
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 1: about ugly teams, Matt that I'm like, why don't we

578
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: bet on this team? It's usually the Falcons. You were

579
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 1: surprised that I wasn't on them last WI. They are

580
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,919
Speaker 1: laying two and a half points to the Chargers. This

581
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 1: is basically as much of a fade of Anthony Lynn

582
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 1: and the Charters as it is to do anything with

583
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 1: the Falcons. But the Falcons are playing better. I mean,

584
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: let's talk.

585
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 2: About I'm not I'm blow your mind here.

586
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: You're on the Chargers. Yeah, Matt, Wow, Okay, that that's

587
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 1: interesting to me, Matt. This is what I was looking

588
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 1: this up today. Okay, so wayed DVA is basically takes

589
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: new cat your most recent games, the worst, the worst

590
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: team in the league in total DVOA offenseive defense. Who

591
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 1: do you think it is? Who's the worst possible team

592
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: in football? Right now? Forget about the Chargers. The worst

593
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 1: possible team the Jets, right oh yeah, last their last

594
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 1: in DVA. The second worst team in way to DVA

595
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: is the Charger The best better teams than the Chargers,

596
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: the Bengals, the Broncos, the Cowboys, the Jaguars, the Lions,

597
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: the Eagles. They are second to last. They are playing terribly.

598
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 1: They are incredibly terribly coached. And again I think I

599
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: know Raheem Morris, the Falcons have been better.

600
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, but laye, the Falcons be laying points to anybody.

601
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 1: It's that's that's a very very fair point. That's a

602
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 1: very fair point. And again, look again, I just like

603
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: to see where generally the experts sort of go, just generally,

604
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: how it breaks down and it's fifty eight percent around

605
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 1: the Chargers. So I'm not an overwhelming sort of thing,

606
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: but that that is probably the feeling about it, and

607
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: it's on the road. But for me, Man, I don't know.

608
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: At this point, I'm probably just gonna fade the Chargers

609
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 1: every single time.

610
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 2: See, I think Herbert's got a chance to put up

611
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 2: a big number here. That's the crap defense.

612
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 1: Yes, so I agree with that. I agree.

613
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: That's why I don't. I'm not so worried about the

614
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 2: Chargers defense as much as I think that Herbert throws

615
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 2: for like three point fifty. Yeah, it just has a monster, monster.

616
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 1: Game because you will talk about that, you know, back to.

617
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 2: Back, back to back weeks. He hasn't done well. But

618
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 2: I just think Herbert's going to bounce back. And it

619
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 2: looked like he did about a month ago when he

620
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: was passing the ball on everybody.

621
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, I mean I think all of that is

622
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 1: fair for me. I couldn't back there, Like, there's under

623
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 1: no circumstances could I back the Chargers in any game

624
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 1: at this point because I just I just don't feel confident.

625
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 1: I mean, Matt, they were that game against the Patriots,

626
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: we like the Patriots. We like them to win that game.

627
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: I like it lost. I like the Pats the last

628
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 2: two weeks. We've been on them the last two weeks.

629
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 2: That's true, an hour off because it was I mean, look,

630
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 2: this is sometimes you just see the board really clearly.

631
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 2: This is what I said. I said, went over the Cardinals,

632
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 2: went over the Chargers, last to the Rams. So that's true.

633
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: Let's hope you're right. If you're listening right now, you

634
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: know whether or not that was right right where they were?

635
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: All right, So let's let's skip that game. You got

636
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: a couple other games you thought that, Yes.

637
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 2: Okay, I want to talk through Ravens Browns. Yes, okay.

638
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 2: So we were talking about fading quarterbacks in fading Josh Allen,

639
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 2: isn't this the greatest fade spot on Baker Mayfield? Given

640
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 2: what he just did and all the hype and all

641
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: the running around and all the wave and the arms

642
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,160
Speaker 2: and all the nonsense he was doing. Isn't this now

643
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 2: the time to fade him and to say the Ravens

644
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: are going to get right here and smash the Browns.

645
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 1: It's on my list, Yeah, it's on my list. This

646
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 1: is Monday night, I believe right, correct, And yeah, and

647
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: the Ravens are laying one and a half in our

648
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 1: contest right now, the consensus line is up to two

649
00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,679
Speaker 1: and a half. So yeah, this has to be. And

650
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: I like the Browns and I've got I've got a

651
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: future that I'm feeling pretty good about. With Stefanski winning

652
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: Coach of the Year, I think he's done a good

653
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: job with this team. But this team, and you were

654
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 1: on them also, Matt. I mean, I don't know whatever

655
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: you were drinking last week, I want some of it,

656
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: because you were all over the Browns too. I wouldn't

657
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: let us take it. You were all over the Browns

658
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 1: over the Titans in that game. But I'm I'm totally

659
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 1: ready to fade the Browns in this spot. And I

660
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 1: think the Ravens are going to They know what they

661
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 1: need to do at this point. They know they basically

662
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: got to win out essentially. I saw some stat that

663
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: said there's like a forty chance that a ten win team,

664
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 1: even with the extra playoffs, is going to miss the

665
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 1: playoffs in the AFC. They've got to win. They know

666
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: they've got to win. So yeah, I'm I'm totally good

667
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 1: with fading the Browns and going with the Ravens in

668
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: the spot for sure.

669
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 2: I love this. Again, this is a short number to

670
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 2: one and a half, so it's basically a pick. And

671
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: I just think in terms of coaching, I like Stefanski,

672
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 2: I do, but I think this is you know, you're

673
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 2: getting into December, must win territory for the Ravens. They

674
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: had their swoon and Lamar's back, Lamar's running, and I

675
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 2: mean they should have all three of their running backs

676
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 2: in this game. Coming up a Monday night, Yep, it's

677
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 2: prime time for Baker Mayfield and oftentimes that means big

678
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 2: time fade opportunity for Baker Mayfield.

679
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 1: And again, I mean Zeke looked better than I expected

680
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: and flooked. But I think if you've got another week

681
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: of health from Brandon Williams and from Kalais Campbell, that

682
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: the line that the run defense is going to be

683
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: very good if you're going to force Baker Mayfield. And again,

684
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: remember they don't really have any wide receiver that could

685
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: possibly scare you. Jervis Sundry is a fine player at

686
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: this point in his career, but Richard Higgins isn't scaring you.

687
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 1: I mean, Austin Hooper is not. They've got to run

688
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: the ball if the Ravens focus on taking that away.

689
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 1: I also don't think that the Browns are really going

690
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: to be able to stop you know, Lamar Jackson. They'll

691
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: get Mark Andrews back. Hollywood brown is playing better. So yeah,

692
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 1: I like it. I'm with you on that one. All right,

693
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: let me throw out how do you feel about the

694
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 1: Titans link seven and a half to the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

695
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of the games I've looked at closely,

696
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: and boy, last week scared me a little bit because

697
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 2: I was on the Jags last week plus ten against

698
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 2: the Vikings, yep, and I just I'm wondering, can they

699
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 2: keep the game close, like, because they're gonna throwing every

700
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 2: down like they just oh yeah, they don't care. Jaggs

701
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 2: don't care. Jags are just chucking the football all over

702
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: the place. And I'm a little nervous about that defense

703
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 2: for the Titans.

704
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

705
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 2: He just got shredded by the Browns.

706
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. The biggest thing for me is again,

707
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: I don't I don't love this game. It's over a

708
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 1: touchdown and the Jags have an innate ability to hang around.

709
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah.

710
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,120
Speaker 1: Now, and again, remember last week, as much as they

711
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: almost won that game. I mean that the first touchdown

712
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: of the week was that preposterous catch by Leaviska Chanot,

713
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: which should have been picked. Like they they're getting lucky

714
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: to hang around, and you can see an angry Titans

715
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: team in this one, right, an embarrassed Titans team. Now

716
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: AJ Brown is not practiced this week, and he did

717
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 1: hurt his ankle in that game. He came back, So

718
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 1: if AJ Brown didn't play, I really wouldn't like them

719
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: that much. But I don't like the seven and a half.

720
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: That's the side on I'd be on, but I don't

721
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: like it better. We have five games right now, Matt,

722
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: and we'll get to them. But five games, though, like

723
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: I'm totally fine with at this point. I don't like

724
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: the Titans better than that. But if you were for

725
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 1: us to choose a side, do you like them at

726
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half or would you?

727
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess so because Henry just runs the

728
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: football like crazy and just you know, choose up the

729
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: clock and they win like I don't know, like twenty

730
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: eight ten or something like. Yeah, I can see it,

731
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 2: but I mean I'm nervous about my Titans. Nine and

732
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: a half win bet because much like the I feel

733
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: like there was a couple, they're three teams I'm nervous about.

734
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: In December, we talked about two of them, and the

735
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 2: Titans are the third one that I was concerned about

736
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 2: in December because that defensive performance was disgusting against the Browns.

737
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: Now granted credit Stefanski. They practiced all week to stop

738
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: Chubb and to stop Hunt, and all of a sudden,

739
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 2: Baker came out and threw every down. They weren't ready

740
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 2: for that. They were like, what are we doing? Are

741
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 2: we practiced stopping the run and now we're stuck. And

742
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 2: that showed a little bit of an inflexibility with with

743
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 2: Mike Vrabel, which kind of exposed him a little bit

744
00:31:58,160 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 2: there that they couldn't get out of their defensive sets.

745
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 2: But I'm comfortable that they win. I don't know about

746
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 2: the seven and a half.

747
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean my guess is that they will say, well,

748
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 1: well we'll try this again. We'll stop James Robinson. Then

749
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 1: if if Mike Lennon can beat us with you know,

750
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: DJ Shark and Colin Johnson, will take our chances. But

751
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: over a touchdown, I get nervous regardless I'm on that opportunity.

752
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 1: I'm on that side. But yeah, I'm i'd be well

753
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: in the past. Okay, any other games that you're kind

754
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: of liking at all?

755
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 2: No, not really, I mean, I mean I I looked

756
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 2: at the I was if the Panthers had Christian McCaffrey,

757
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: I would have taken to Panthers. But without Christian McCaffrey,

758
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 2: that's a complete no play. Now I have to stay

759
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 2: far far away from from that game. And it's really

760
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: kind of frustrating because.

761
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 1: And again they don't have DJ. I mean, I'm sure

762
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 1: DJ Moore is not going to play, given that he's

763
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: on the COVID list, and we don't even know if

764
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: Curtis Sanduel is going to play because he's.

765
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: You know close, and I can't I can't back drew locks.

766
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: So it's like no, no, no, stay away game.

767
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: That was the only side I would have with McCaffrey playing,

768
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: would have I would have said, I would have been

769
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: on the table here about three and a half for

770
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 2: the Panthers, But just too much uncertainty, So that that

771
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 2: was the old The other game that I was kind

772
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 2: of looking at and then like gun to my head

773
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 2: if I had to pick it. I would take the

774
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 2: Jets plus thirteen and a half against.

775
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 1: The Seas Also another game where there's no way for

776
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: me to analyze that game and think that the value

777
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: isn't on the Jets. Yeah, and there's no way I

778
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: can back the Jets right in the game, like right, Like,

779
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: that's what that game boils down to at this point.

780
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: I mean, the pros will take it that the pros

781
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: who bet the board it will take.

782
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: The pros are going to pound that number without it

783
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: that they will love the thirteen and a half. They

784
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: will be more because that is value on the Jets.

785
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: And the Jets, to their quote unquote credit, are playing

786
00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: better offensively. They're down Denzel mims that that's not gonna

787
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: make a huge difference, but it does take away one

788
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: of their weapons. But yeah, the Seahawks probably could win

789
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: this game by twenty five points if they decided to

790
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 1: do it. But you know the Seahawks, they like to

791
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: play c looks games.

792
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 2: It's just something to do up there. Though. Something's going

793
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 2: on in Seattle. Something's not right right now with them.

794
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know if it's Pete Carroll or

795
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson believing his own press clippings too much, or

796
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: you know, the league figuring out DK or what. But

797
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 2: it's it's not looking great. The whole MVP Russ campaign

798
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 2: has really stalled.

799
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Now, I think that unless he goes nuts

800
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: at the end, I think that that race is pretty

801
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 1: much over. To the extent he was in it, I

802
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: think he was down to Mahomes, maybe Rogers, maybe Allen

803
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 1: if he has a huge finish, who knows. All Right,

804
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,400
Speaker 1: let's get to a couple other games here, and I

805
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: have a slight lean on on a couple of them,

806
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 1: but not strong. How do you feel about the Chiefs

807
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 1: links seven and a half to the Dolphins in Miami?

808
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: See two of playing leads me to bet the Chiefs. Yeah,

809
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: so if it was Fitzpatrick, I would probably bet. I

810
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 2: probably bet the Miami Dolphins if it was Fitzpatrick. But

811
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 2: I just don't think two is the right guy to

812
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: be playing right now. And I just can't believe that

813
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: the team consistently wants to force Tua. And he's a

814
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 2: game manager at best. He's accurate with the football, I

815
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 2: get it, but like you know, you're gonna ride your defense,

816
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,720
Speaker 2: and the problem is when you're trying to stop the Chiefs. Yikes.

817
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 2: I mean, you've got to be able to score with them.

818
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 2: I don't care how good your defense is, you got

819
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:00,359
Speaker 2: to be able to score with them. I don't think

820
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 2: Miami could score with them. So my only concern is

821
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 2: just that Dolphins defense has been so good at turning

822
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 2: the football over. What happens if they get a fubble,

823
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 2: couple of picks or whatever it might be. And you know,

824
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 2: the Chiefs haven't really been interested in killing people. They

825
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: just want to win the games. True, they want to

826
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 2: They want to go into the playoffs and that's when

827
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 2: they'll really turn it on. But they're you know, they're

828
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: winning games by four to five points a bit more

829
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 2: too much for my liking to back them there.

830
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,360
Speaker 1: I agree that that really is the thing. They don't

831
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 1: have the we're gonna win this game by twenty points

832
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 1: at all. They just don't seem interested, like yeah, because

833
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: you definitely think you see, you know, you get Hi

834
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. You have forty five seconds and no timeouts

835
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: to drive the entire field and it's like just a

836
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: snap of his fingers and it's done. They could score

837
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: whenever they want to do it, but they just don't

838
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: seem interested in really going. You've got again the Dolphins,

839
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: you mentioned it with their defense good at causing turnovers.

840
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 1: But the chief I mean, Mahomes doesn't throw picks really,

841
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: so you'd really need something crazy and that I do

842
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 1: see the snare where the Chiefs get up big and

843
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: you're going to force two it to chase points and

844
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 1: I just don't think that's gonna be pretty. But I again,

845
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 1: I don't love it at over a touchdown just because again,

846
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: as you said, the Chiefs don't really put people away.

847
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 1: How about the Bucks?

848
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,360
Speaker 2: The Bucks game is the clearest. You know, they had

849
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 2: seventeen points in the first quarter, then they can out score

850
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: seventeen to seven the rest of the way, right, so

851
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 2: you know that that that's my fear is that like

852
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 2: they'll get up big and go, okay, we're done. It's like, uh, guys,

853
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 2: you got three quarters left and yeah, keep going and

854
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: then they just don't care. So that that's a problem

855
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: and it could burn them in the playoffs. But but

856
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 2: that's a problem right now in terms of focusing for

857
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:31,600
Speaker 2: four quarters.

858
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:33,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you, all right. What do you think

859
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: about the Packers link seven and a half to the

860
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 1: Lions in Detroit.

861
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 2: Hate the number. I would have bet it. I mean,

862
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 2: I think, like I mentioned last week that you know,

863
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 2: taking the Lions in a spot to go ahead and

864
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 2: win because it's now three and oh for teams that

865
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 2: after they fire their coach, they've won the next game outright.

866
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 2: So we talked about it.

867
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: I said, look, somebody pointed that out on Twitter.

868
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: Way take a line. So I said, you know that

869
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 2: this is just you know, forget about what's going on.

870
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 2: They're gonna beat the Bears just simply because you know,

871
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 2: they just fire Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn and then

872
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 2: the fumble happens by you know, Mitchell Trubisky, which is

873
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 2: you know, kind of like a redundant comment, but you know,

874
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 2: go ahead, he just blow blows the game. And then

875
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 2: so they go ahead and win it. And then there

876
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: you go. So this is a classic letdown spot, right,

877
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: you win a game you're not supposed to. Now it's

878
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 2: introom coach, this interroom coach that they all know they're

879
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: out at the end of the year, and you're taking

880
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 2: on Aaron Rodgers who's still very much and not just

881
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 2: the MVP race but also trying to contend for playoff

882
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 2: positioning here. Yep, I just don't like the hook.

883
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:28,439
Speaker 1: Yep.

884
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: On the road seven and a half just seems to

885
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 2: be a little bit too That's that's a little bit

886
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:32,479
Speaker 2: too much.

887
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: That's the exact analysis I have. I I like the

888
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: Packers in this game. I think they're gonna win. The

889
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: hook is the hook scares me too much because the.

890
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,919
Speaker 2: Teaser game, This is teaser. This is par two team

891
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 2: teaser written all over all over it.

892
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 1: I love the Teazers. I agree. Yeah, this is just

893
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,839
Speaker 1: something where once you're because you know you're gonna have

894
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: Stafford will throw. There's not gonna be meany Kenny Gallay

895
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: in this game. But they should have DeAndre Swift back.

896
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: But regardless, they're gonna they're gonna find a way to

897
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: put up points and keep it, you know, potentially from

898
00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: becoming a blowout. So I agree, over the heck, I

899
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: don't like it. What about the Cowboys laying three and

900
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 1: a half to the Bengals in Cincinnati.

901
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 2: I can't I can't pick either team. I can't trust

902
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 2: either team. They both stink. Both absolutely atrocious football teams.

903
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: And it's just okay, who is gonna be worse? Like

904
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 2: who's who's gonna be the worst of the two, And

905
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 2: both our teams have backup quarterbacks, both have defenses to

906
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 2: give up big numbers, both have significant injuries you have

907
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 2: to worry about. I mean, the Cowboys have a better

908
00:38:33,040 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: receiving corps obviously, but I mean, I no, just absolutely,

909
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 2: this is like my least favorite game of the week.

910
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gross, it's gross. And again I think we

911
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 1: can assume that Ryan Finley is going to be the

912
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: quarterback for the Bengals, in which case, you know, I

913
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: feel like, do you know the movie The Princess Bride,

914
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: Matt all right, So I feel like it's that scene

915
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,839
Speaker 1: where Vizzini is trying to figure out the wine, like

916
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 1: which one has?

917
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 2: The character games? You know, the character names?

918
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: Oh Mad want to if you ever want to go

919
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 1: on to the culture or movies, we'll talk about all

920
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: they life.

921
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 2: I know the actor's name, I don't know the character's.

922
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: Name, and he can say he's saying, you know, but

923
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: you would have known that I know this, So I

924
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 1: clearly cannot choose the wine in front of me. That's

925
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: how I feel when I analyze this game, like this

926
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 1: is why I cannot choose the beangals. This is why

927
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 1: I cannot choose the Cowboys, so complete stay away from me.

928
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 1: I'm glad you feel the same, what do you? I'm

929
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: actually interesting to see what you think about this next one.

930
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 1: The Texans are laying one and a half to the

931
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 1: Bears in Chicago.

932
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 2: See, there's a couple of things going on. One I

933
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 2: don't like. If it was a Houston I would say

934
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 2: a different story. It's outdoors in Chicago, so weather's a

935
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 2: question there for me. Yeah, they don't run the football

936
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 2: Texans do. You're throwing by crazy, So what happens if

937
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 2: it's really cold and nasty? I haven't seen the weather yet,

938
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 2: so but I can't. Again, this is another one of

939
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: these teams with interim coaches. As we head towards the

940
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 2: final four weeks, what are they playing for?

941
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: Right? Like?

942
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 2: What's the incentive for the Texans team to lay out

943
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 2: for a receip to lay out and get his head

944
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 2: taken off? What's the what's the incentive for a defensive

945
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 2: lineman to go ahead and dive on a football or

946
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 2: dive and make himself vulnerable. I just I don't know

947
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,359
Speaker 2: what these teams are playing for. I mean, maybe Matt

948
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,439
Speaker 2: Nagy's gonna be fired, but we know this new coach

949
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 2: coming in Houston, so that's I just I can't trust

950
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 2: either one of these teams, although I do think if

951
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 2: you're picking on quarterbacks, Houston's got the better quarterback clearly coaches,

952
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,880
Speaker 2: though the Bears slightly have the better coach, have the

953
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: better coach. It's it's it's hard. If I had to

954
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 2: pick a side, I probably would take the home team.

955
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. I have been on both sides of this game

956
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 1: to the extent I tried to pick a side, which

957
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: I don't want to do because I just there are

958
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: times you don't have to bet on every game. Everyone

959
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 1: like you don't. You can you can take some some

960
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 1: games off. I'm gonna be taking the Cowboys Bengals game off.

961
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be taking this one because I've talked

962
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: myself into both sides of this game, which is really

963
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: more that I've talked myself out of the other side

964
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 1: of this game, because it's just something where I don't

965
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 1: trust either team. I don't trust either quarterback, so I'm

966
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 1: not going any near it. If you had brought it up,

967
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 1: I would have just said, Nope, I've got nothing on it.

968
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 1: And if you can convince me, then you are better

969
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: at this than I have last game, I believe. I

970
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 1: think we've touched everything else. The forty nine Ers laying

971
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,720
Speaker 1: three and a half to the Washington football team.

972
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 2: Isn't this Yeah? Isn't this the classic letdown spot for Washington?

973
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: Isn't just? Isn't this just the five six, seven point

974
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 2: loss to the forty nine ers. They just run the

975
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: ball down the throat and get out of there with

976
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: a win. I mean, it's just. I mean that was

977
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,720
Speaker 2: a super Bowl performance. Alex Smith at three hundred yards passing,

978
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 2: he was on fire. In the second half, Chase Young

979
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 2: came to life that goal line. Stan was gigantic to

980
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 2: play Chase Young made. They finally made a couple of

981
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 2: big plays on Big Ben Late to intercept the football

982
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 2: to win the football game. I mean, everything went right

983
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 2: for them against the Steelers. I think it probably comes back.

984
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 2: If I had to pick it, I'd say San Francisco.

985
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 2: But I hate backup quarterbacks.

986
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 1: I don't like the hook three and a half. It's

987
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 1: three now the consensus line. I'd be much more willing

988
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: to take the forty nine if you give in it

989
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:03,399
Speaker 1: and it was three and you wanted the forty nine ers,

990
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 1: I would take them because for all the reason this

991
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: is like the this is like the you know you

992
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 1: think about classic like you know, by low so high,

993
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 1: I mean there is no what selling high. There is

994
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: no selling higher than what Washington just did. The forty

995
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: nine Ers just got obliterated by the Bills on national television.

996
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: So that's a spot where you buy them low. So

997
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:26,439
Speaker 1: I would take them, But over the hook, I don't

998
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 1: like it. So all right, Matt, I think we've got it.

999
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:31,319
Speaker 1: I think we've got the five and that is the

1000
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 1: Rams laying five and a half points to the Patriots

1001
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: unless the Patriots cover that spread, in which case we

1002
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 1: never picked it and you can't prove it. The Bucks

1003
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 1: laying six and a half to the Vikings, the Colts

1004
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Raiders, the Steelers

1005
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 1: getting two and a half from the Bills, and the

1006
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:49,760
Speaker 1: Ravens laying one and a half to the Browns.

1007
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 2: So say that again, So Bucks minus six and a half.

1008
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Bucks minus six and a half to the Vikes, right,

1009
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 1: the Colts minus two and a half to the Raiders,

1010
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: the Steelers getting two and a half from the Bills.

1011
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 2: I was nervous that we were going all favorites.

1012
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 1: No, we I know, I we really is. I mean,

1013
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 1: it's still too many favorites. But to be fair, like

1014
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: one of the favorites, the Ravens are laying.

1015
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 2: One and a half.

1016
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 1: That's not yeah, the Colts are laying two and a half, you.

1017
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,919
Speaker 2: Know, favorites. Yeah, so so we have we we have

1018
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,959
Speaker 2: four dogs, four favorites, one dog, but really two dogs

1019
00:43:22,960 --> 00:43:25,320
Speaker 2: skill Ravens. So it's exactly, I'm fine.

1020
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,959
Speaker 1: Exactly yeah, works, yeah, and again, well we look where

1021
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: we're honest, we'll we'll let you know. If we changed

1022
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: one in this last one. I can't what did we

1023
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: change it too?

1024
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 2: Man?

1025
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: Other cults. We swapped in the Colts in this last one,

1026
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: and we took out the Chiefs, which was a good swap,

1027
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 1: a very good swap. And again that was a huge spread,

1028
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 1: which I just think we can't do with the Chiefs

1029
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: at this point anymore because they're not interested in all right,

1030
00:43:46,640 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: that is great. I will will tweet it out so

1031
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 1: when you'll know when we stopped recording this, because it's

1032
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 1: about to be a tweet that's going to come out

1033
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: that we're going to take this game but we are

1034
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 1: going to take the rams. I hope it goes well.

1035
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: I hope the rest of our pics go well as always.

1036
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: Don't forget to tune in two Matt's Lives. Matt, what

1037
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 1: have we decided to do now with the props that

1038
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: we're gonna do?

1039
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 2: Oh? Great point, Yeah, okay, so here's what we're gonna do.

1040
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 2: So your props are gonna be. We're gonna be my props.

1041
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:08,399
Speaker 1: Okay.

1042
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet your props every week. Okay, so you're

1043
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 2: gonna give me five, I'm gonna bet it, and I'm

1044
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 2: gonna go ahead, and I'm going to tell everyone your props,

1045
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 2: which are becoming the Daily Juice live stream props every

1046
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 2: single week. So kind of combining our efforts here down

1047
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 2: the stretch, because you're doing all this great work to

1048
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 2: break down games and making projections. Normally you were giving

1049
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 2: two to three. But since I think you're on an

1050
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 2: eight and two run.

1051
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 1: I think actually I might be eight and oh. I

1052
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 1: think I lost the two before that. I think the

1053
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:37,880
Speaker 1: last three weeks, I may be wrong. I think it

1054
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 1: might be eight and oh over the.

1055
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 2: Last that's possible. I think I was adding it up

1056
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 2: so very possible to eat in a row, and eight

1057
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 2: out of your last ten you've hit, so I think

1058
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: it's better. I've been going two and two or one

1059
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 2: and three pretty much every every Sunday, So I think

1060
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: it's better and smarter for the audience and better for

1061
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 2: the winning for the listeners to just take your props,

1062
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: make up my props, and go ahead and give them

1063
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: out on the live stream.

1064
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 1: I think that's totally fine. And again my process, just

1065
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 1: so everybody knows, I do actually projections because I project

1066
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 1: for my fantasy rankings, and then usually what I will

1067
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:06,920
Speaker 1: do when I have time is I will compare my

1068
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 1: projections to the available props in the market. Part of

1069
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 1: the reason why I haven't been great about it with Matt,

1070
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Speaker 1: poor Matt on live room is like, where are the props, dude,

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Speaker 1: And I'm like, oh, sorry, busy, is because my process

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Speaker 1: of refining my projections is like a four or five

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Speaker 1: hour process. Matt knows I'm almost always messaging him at

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Speaker 1: like one am my time, two am on Saturday mornings,

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Speaker 1: because that's what I do, That's how I need to do.

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Speaker 1: I need to get all the available information. But we

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Speaker 1: have been on a heater, so we will try to

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Speaker 1: keep that going. We'll try to keep Matt's NFL betting

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Speaker 1: going again. We're gonna take this through to the end

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00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 1: of the year. Then we're going to figure out, you know,

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Speaker 1: whatever we'll be doing with the playoffs. But thanks for

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00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: sticking with us. Hopefully we'll get back and closer to

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Speaker 1: finishing into the money again. My name is Dan Harris,

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Speaker 1: that's Matt Parole. It can find us on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Dan Harris Ady and that Sports Talk Matt. And for now,

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Speaker 1: we will talk to you next week and the same

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Speaker 1: time

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Speaker 2: He