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Speaker 2: Welcome everybody to the Buck Brief. We're going to dive
Speaker 2: into the latest in the twenty twenty four election with
Speaker 2: our friend Ryan Gerdusky. He is the man behind the
Speaker 2: phenomenal political sub sect of the National Populist newsletter. Ryan,
Speaker 2: let's get right to it. A lot of numbers over
Speaker 2: the weekend that have people saying five alarm fire for
Speaker 2: Biden reelection, Democrats freaking out for Biden's chances, and bottom line,
Speaker 2: Trump can win in twenty twenty four according to this data.
Speaker 1: What do you say, Well, I was on your radio
Speaker 1: show a couple of weeks ago saying that the numbers
Speaker 1: for Trump were improving because the economy is bad. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is really an indictment on Biden, and these numbers show.
Speaker 1: And the numbers came out actually again with DeSantis and
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley and a generic Republican and they're all beating
Speaker 1: Joe Biden. I think that Joe Biden has a serious issue, Namely,
Speaker 1: people think he's too old, that he's ineffective, and there
Speaker 1: is both problems domestically with the border and inflation and
Speaker 1: globally in Israel and Ukraine, and there's no sign of
Speaker 1: things getting better at all. And I think that voters
Speaker 1: are generally very concerned. I think he's isolated large groups
Speaker 1: of Democrats, Black voters, young voters, Latino voters, and they
Speaker 1: don't feel confident in him as a leader. And those
Speaker 1: numbers The New York Times New York Times Siena poll
Speaker 1: is an excellent polling firm, but it's not alone. The
Speaker 1: numbers have been showing this gradual movement in a series
Speaker 1: of polls, showing there's real problems. And I spoke to
Speaker 1: several Democrat consultants and their opinions are either, yeah, it's
Speaker 1: a real issue. We're going to lose if Biden's the
Speaker 1: nomini too, you know, hopefully things will change over the
Speaker 1: next year. The big hobby in the New York Times
Speaker 1: Santa Pol was if Trump's indicted, he goes from winning
Speaker 1: almost every swing state to losing every swing state. So
Speaker 1: a lot of them have their hat hang on the
Speaker 1: idea of that Trump will be indicted, either in DC
Speaker 1: or in Georgia.
Speaker 2: It seems like a lot of these trials, Now there
Speaker 2: are a lot of them, but it seems like in
Speaker 2: each one the timeline is going to be a problem
Speaker 2: for Democrats. So if the whole strategy seems to be,
Speaker 2: or perhaps a large part of the strategy is get
Speaker 2: Trump indicted, and I'm sorry, get Trump convicted, and then
Speaker 2: all this changes. What if they can't get a trial
Speaker 2: done and get that conviction on the books before the election.
Speaker 1: Well, and one that is moving at their fastest speed
Speaker 1: is the Washington DC case. And the judge seems hell
Speaker 1: bent on indicting Trump, and you know, the hope that
Speaker 1: it will go to the Supreme Court seems I don't know,
Speaker 1: it seems like a whimsical idea, but who knows. Other
Speaker 1: things happened that could work in his favor and it
Speaker 1: could move to a higher core. But that is I
Speaker 1: think the Washington d C case is the case that's
Speaker 1: most likely to be heard first. I think the New
Speaker 1: York case is basically all garbage. Florida looks like it's
Speaker 1: going to take a very long time to work itself out.
Speaker 1: And then the two cases that matter are Georgia n.
Speaker 1: Washington d C. As far as politically goes, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure about the logistics with it, but the Washington d C.
Speaker 1: Judge seems hell bent on indicting Trump. She's indicting everybody
Speaker 1: in associated January sixth. So you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I can't predict how it's going to go, but it's
Speaker 1: not looking terrifically great for Trump as far as who
Speaker 1: else she's convicted, and that all these people have made
Speaker 1: plea deals saying that they're going to turn on the president.
Speaker 1: They're going to sit there and say who's his that
Speaker 1: he was responsible. So so we'll wait and we'll see.
Speaker 1: That could change the entire parameters of the presidential election.
Speaker 1: You see college educated whites going from D plus ten
Speaker 1: to D plus thirty. And I mean, I have a
Speaker 1: hard time seeing the how he would he would overcome that.
Speaker 2: In some of this some of this stuff over the
Speaker 2: weekend included David Axelrod of Obama Administration notoriety saying that
Speaker 2: Biden needs to drop out, that only Biden can make
Speaker 2: that decision for himself, meaning he's not going to bow
Speaker 2: to pressure, right, you have to get him out for
Speaker 2: there to be But you know, I sit here and
Speaker 2: I say, okay, Ryan, then what's the plan you and
Speaker 2: I talked about this a lot because I can always
Speaker 2: people so mad at me because I keep saying, guys,
Speaker 2: it's got to be Biden. And when I say it's
Speaker 2: got to be Biden, if it's like Kamala Harris takes
Speaker 2: over firm or something fine like that, I could see
Speaker 2: them maybe doing. But this notion of some other candidate
Speaker 2: who's just going to be the person that the party
Speaker 2: coalesces around. Walk me through some of this, because I
Speaker 2: feel like all I get these days are emails being like,
Speaker 2: it won't be Biden. And I keep saying, I get
Speaker 2: why everyone feels that way, but then who is it?
Speaker 1: Right? Well, if Biden drops out in the next month
Speaker 1: before the deadline for primaries, they're still a primary, Like
Speaker 1: the Democratic primary doesn't stop because Biden drops out. It's
Speaker 1: just that there's a month of qualifying and you're going
Speaker 1: to see everybody from Gavin Newsom to Pritzker to Corey
Speaker 1: Booker to Kamala Harris jump in and announce that they're
Speaker 1: going to run for it, and they'll have a few
Speaker 1: weeks basically to run a presidential campaign. And it's very
Speaker 1: very difficult if Biden drops out after he's the nominee.
Speaker 1: Then it's the DNC, the Democratic Governors Association, that's just
Speaker 1: there and figures out who the nominee will be. It is,
Speaker 1: with the exception of Corey Booker, almost all the leading
Speaker 1: contenders who want to be president are white men. With
Speaker 1: the exception of Gretchen Whitmer, they are almost entirely white men.
Speaker 1: And the only other obvious cases that they're not are
Speaker 1: Corey Booker and Kamala Harris. And the Democratic Party of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three twenty twenty four is not going to
Speaker 1: tell the first Black Asian female vice president you have
Speaker 1: to step down to make way for another white guy.
Speaker 1: I just don't see how that's possible. They are literally
Speaker 1: nominating the new US Senator of California, a state that
Speaker 1: is two percent black female. They nominate a black female
Speaker 1: who doesn't even live in the state because they want
Speaker 1: to give credence to the black female vote, which is
Speaker 1: the most democratic vote in the country. They've picked a
Speaker 1: US Supreme Court justice primarily based on her race and gender,
Speaker 1: and I don't see how they're gonna sell Kamala, you know,
Speaker 1: step aside. We have a white guy to sit there
Speaker 1: and come to the rescue. It just doesn't seem like
Speaker 1: in any calculation possible. In my mind, I think that
Speaker 1: if it's not them, it will be common law, and
Speaker 1: then she'll pick a look to a new vice president,
Speaker 1: and that will be an interesting decision. I just don't
Speaker 1: see how they tell the first female black, female, black
Speaker 1: Asian female, whatever she is this week, to step aside
Speaker 1: and to become to make way for a white guy.
Speaker 2: Okay, what I want to ask you about this the
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Speaker 2: six ' nine. Ryan. The argument then that it's gonna
Speaker 2: be Biden. It's gonna be Biden and Kamala all the
Speaker 2: way to convention. And then they're just gonna say, you
Speaker 2: know what, it's actually somebody else. What do you make
Speaker 2: of that? Oh and by the way, usually the people
Speaker 2: that make this argument say it's gonna be Michelle Obama.
Speaker 1: Okay, Michelle. Nothing makes me more insane than hearing Michelle
Speaker 1: Obama's being the president. Hearing Michelle is like we had
Speaker 1: to hear Oprah was gonna be president for twenty years.
Speaker 1: That is as likely as Michelle Obama. It's a woman
Speaker 1: who hates politics and touristsly hates politics, didn't want Barack
Speaker 1: to be president, hated being first lady is making millions
Speaker 1: as a celebrity. Did not even stay awake for the
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen election. She went to bed early that night
Speaker 1: and tell me who wins in the morning. I don't care.
Speaker 1: She does not like politics at all. She does not
Speaker 1: aspire to be a politician at all. She wants to
Speaker 1: be a celebrity. She is a celebrity. And if you
Speaker 1: have a choice of making millions of dollars and everyone
Speaker 1: leaving you alone as you sell cookbooks and gardening books
Speaker 1: and our adorn of the cover of magazines, why would
Speaker 1: you want to be president? For She just doesn't. This
Speaker 1: is not this is this is like the Oprah pipe dream.
Speaker 1: And the only people I here talking about Michelle Obama
Speaker 1: are Republicans, So put that aside. If it goes to
Speaker 1: a convention floor vote, then you're gonna have delegates from
Speaker 1: every single state start clamoring for one person or the other.
Speaker 1: There is no key uniting democrat. I mean, Gavin Newsom
Speaker 1: is somebody that is not a lot of media, a
Speaker 1: lot of Republican media, especially in Republicans, are obsessed with
Speaker 1: So let's take him as like the foil. He would
Speaker 1: have to win delegates across the South, he'd have to
Speaker 1: win delegates across the Northeast, He'd have to win delegates
Speaker 1: in states that don't have high name I d and
Speaker 1: I think the last time I checked, only like nineteen
Speaker 1: percent of the average Democrat even knows really anything about
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom. So who Jeremy Pritz Then it becomes a
Speaker 1: mad dash to the floor where you're going to have
Speaker 1: delegates coalesce party the party establishment sit they're on whip
Speaker 1: votes and they're not gonna whip votes against I just say,
Speaker 1: oh no, they're not going to votes against the first
Speaker 1: black female vice president. It's for a white guy who,
Speaker 1: by the way, has never been on a national ticket
Speaker 1: and in many of these cases, have never been out
Speaker 1: a ticket out on a federal ticket. There have only
Speaker 1: been a ticket statewide for governor.
Speaker 2: And so you're you're with me on this that it's
Speaker 2: next November, it's going to be Biden or Kamala as
Speaker 2: the Democrat, Like you're voting for Biden or Kamala. You're
Speaker 2: with me on this because you know you and I
Speaker 2: are kind of on an island here because the masses
Speaker 2: are all still shouting at us about how it's going
Speaker 2: to be somebody.
Speaker 1: Else I've heard. But think of how many people we
Speaker 1: heard we're gonna be the president one day, and it
Speaker 1: just never manifested because they never had anything going for them, really,
Speaker 1: I mean, and they were never serious contenders. The Michelle
Speaker 1: Obama thing is a pipe dream. Gavin Newsom has never
Speaker 1: been on a federal ballot is an entire life. Neither
Speaker 1: has j R. Pritzker never, neither has ag Gretchen Whitmer.
Speaker 1: I mean, these are the people that are really looking
Speaker 1: to launch presidential campaigns that they have been going to
Speaker 1: early states for twenty twenty eight. They're not the rest
Speaker 1: of the It doesn't Presidential campaigns don't manifest out of
Speaker 1: the clear blue sky. They take months and months, if
Speaker 1: not years, to sit there and work on to launch.
Speaker 1: If Biden is so weak right now that the chances
Speaker 1: of them beating Biden are higher than they are in
Speaker 1: a crowded field in twenty twenty eight, and yet they
Speaker 1: are not doing it because essentially a lot of them
Speaker 1: are good party people. They don't step outside the party apparatus,
Speaker 1: and the party apparatus is still behind Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: Right. We're going to talk about the RFK junior factor
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Speaker 2: New Paradigm Research. Ryan. You know, so we've seen the numbers.
Speaker 2: We talked about this looks bad for Democrats. But RFK
Speaker 2: Junior I was saying this al long. I think you
Speaker 2: and I even talked about it here on either the
Speaker 2: radio show or the podcast RFK Junior. The only people
Speaker 2: that seem to get excited about him were on the right.
Speaker 2: You know, I never heard Democrats that were like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: we really need, you know, a Kennedy in the race
Speaker 2: right now, who's ourn anti vaccine and not just anti
Speaker 2: COVID vaccine by the way. And now it looks like
Speaker 2: people are waking up to the fact that if he's
Speaker 2: going to pull votes, he's going to pull more Trump
Speaker 2: votes as a third party candidate. Is this something? Is
Speaker 2: this something that people who want Trump to be president
Speaker 2: should be concerned about or is it overblown?
Speaker 1: It depends if he can get on the ballot anywhere,
Speaker 1: because getting ballot access is extremely difficult in many statess
Speaker 1: country the last I mean without a party like the
Speaker 1: Libertarian Party of the Green Party, The last person to
Speaker 1: do it was Ross Purew back in nineteen ninety six.
Speaker 1: It is extremely it's.
Speaker 2: So hard, like, what does it require, you know, give
Speaker 2: me some sense for pevery state.
Speaker 1: Every state has different requirements. In some states, you need
Speaker 1: to get a certain number of signatures in every state
Speaker 1: house district. In other states you just pay a fee
Speaker 1: in other insistory. In other states you need to have
Speaker 1: some other qualifying numbers. Mostly it's signatures and stuff like
Speaker 1: that within a certain days, and they have to be
Speaker 1: good and they could never have signed for other people.
Speaker 1: It's very and it's very litigious, it's very expensive. Very
Speaker 1: few people can actually get it done without an established
Speaker 1: party on the ballot. Some states are fairly easy. It's
Speaker 1: why Kanye was able to get in the ballot in
Speaker 1: like Illinois back in twenty twenty. But a lot of
Speaker 1: states are extremely difficult for ballot access. And the one
Speaker 1: thing that Kennedy has in a lot of polls is
Speaker 1: he has a higher favorability number than Trump or Biden.
Speaker 1: So if this election comes down to who do you
Speaker 1: hate less? Trump or Biden kind of the way that
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen was. RFK is a good soft landing page.
Speaker 1: The thing is that he's kind of trying to create
Speaker 1: a coalition based on very weird policy dynamics. So he's
Speaker 1: very anti vax He's for a wall on the Mexican
Speaker 1: border and to stop the invasion, obviously to appeal to Republicans,
Speaker 1: and at the same time he is for math, for
Speaker 1: amnesty for illegal immigrants, he is for reparations for former
Speaker 1: sate for the descendants of slaves, things that recoil Republicans completely.
Speaker 1: And I don't really understand what kind of coalition he's
Speaker 1: essentially trying to build unless he is going on like
Speaker 1: vibes and just saying, you know, I can be trusted,
Speaker 1: and I have all these Hollywood friends, and you know,
Speaker 1: his wife is a celebrity. He's got a lot of
Speaker 1: close celebrity friends. If they all come out of the
Speaker 1: woodwork and say, you know, RFK is a great guy,
Speaker 1: it could convince some people maybe to sit there and
Speaker 1: cast their ballot for him. If you don't like anybody
Speaker 1: and you're like whatever, it couldn't get worse than the
Speaker 1: two Octagerians currently in the race.
Speaker 2: You think Cornell West could have enough of an impact
Speaker 2: that it'd be worth Republicans trying to help him because
Speaker 2: he would be taking more votes from Biden.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if he can get on the ballot anywhere. But
Speaker 1: remember in Wisconsin back in twenty twenty, the Green Party
Speaker 1: was disqualified by a federal judge for having the Republican
Speaker 1: Party helped him get on the ballot. Had the Green
Speaker 1: Party been on the ballot in twenty twenty, it is
Speaker 1: very likely that Trump would have won Wisconsin. And in
Speaker 1: the three states that matter the most Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: At twenty twenty, the Green Party was disqualified in all
Speaker 1: three states. So it just depends on kind of the
Speaker 1: metrics of which you get on the ballot and the
Speaker 1: ballot access and who gets it downware that's like a
Speaker 1: big million dollar question that no one's really kind of,
Speaker 1: you know, dived into. But it's also can they get there?
Speaker 1: How much money does he raise? I mean, can he
Speaker 1: get on a debate stage. I mean, we haven't had
Speaker 1: a third party candidate on a presidential debate stage since
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety six, So it's possible, but it's it's very unlikely.
Speaker 1: And if you're't on the debate stage, it's hard to
Speaker 1: sit there and see how you can really mount a
Speaker 1: serious national campaign.
Speaker 2: One more for you, Ryan, We got a Republican debate
Speaker 2: in a few days. Is the primary over or is
Speaker 2: there still a path for DeSantis?
Speaker 1: You know it's so funny and Christina push on tweet
Speaker 1: issues like the Trump people say the Waka Flaca endorsement
Speaker 1: is more serious than the Kim Reynolds Governor of Iowa endorsement.
Speaker 1: Iowa is a state where it's a caucus, it's not
Speaker 1: a primary organization matters. If the Iowa GOP and the
Speaker 1: governor and the evangelicals are all mounting a campaign for Desantas,
Speaker 1: then Desandas can still have an ups in Iowa and
Speaker 1: maybe people will have a second look at things. The
Speaker 1: big thing that going for Desantas in January when he
Speaker 1: was leading in the polls was that people have the
Speaker 1: impression that Trump could not win. With all of these polls,
Speaker 1: it is really difficult to sit there and make that
Speaker 1: argument still, And if it was a two man race,
Speaker 1: it'd be easy to make that argument because a lot
Speaker 1: of Republicans do not want Trump. But as long as
Speaker 1: it's a splintered race and as long as Tim Scott
Speaker 1: and Nikki Haley and Vivaka and Chris are still floating around.
Speaker 1: It gets it gets close to impossible. But if if
Speaker 1: Iowa breaks, maybe New Hampshires, things can happen. I just
Speaker 1: very hard to see how after Iowa New Hampshire and
Speaker 1: upset can happen because he is basically a He's a
Speaker 1: facto incumbent Trump right now, and he has not had
Speaker 1: the ability to have his credentials really question and they
Speaker 1: have and they took too long to attack him on
Speaker 1: his brand, and his brand is you know, I'm this
Speaker 1: honest guy and I they don't. They hate me because
Speaker 1: they hate you. And I built the wall and I
Speaker 1: did all these things when he didn't do a lot
Speaker 1: of those things, and there was really a question on
Speaker 1: the integrity of what he was able to accomplish, on
Speaker 1: the fact that, you know, his entire political machine right
Speaker 1: now are all established and Republicans. The people who are
Speaker 1: likely to fill his cabinet as of right now are
Speaker 1: mostly established and Republicans. It's going to be a lot
Speaker 1: of it's Trump two point zero. And that those warning
Speaker 1: signs were never put up ahead by any of the
Speaker 1: people questioning him. They were attacking him on the kind
Speaker 1: of the dumbest stuff for the longest time, and I
Speaker 1: think that too much time I'm buying.
Speaker 2: I think they were afraid. They were afraid of the
Speaker 2: Trump bass too and alienating them forever. Ryan, thanks for
Speaker 2: being here. Everybody, go check out if you're on substack,
Speaker 2: or if you're not, you can go check it out anyway.
Speaker 2: Sign up the National Populist newsletter. I'm a subscriber to
Speaker 2: Ryan's newsletter. Check it out. Ryan, good to see you,
Speaker 2: my friend.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much, Thank you,