WEBVTT - Ryan Girdusky - Trumps Race to Lose

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome everybody to the Buck Brief. We're going to dive

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<v Speaker 2>into the latest in the twenty twenty four election with

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<v Speaker 2>our friend Ryan Gerdusky. He is the man behind the

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<v Speaker 2>phenomenal political sub sect of the National Populist newsletter. Ryan,

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<v Speaker 2>let's get right to it. A lot of numbers over

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<v Speaker 2>the weekend that have people saying five alarm fire for

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<v Speaker 2>Biden reelection, Democrats freaking out for Biden's chances, and bottom line,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump can win in twenty twenty four according to this data.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you say, Well, I was on your radio

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<v Speaker 1>show a couple of weeks ago saying that the numbers

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<v Speaker 1>for Trump were improving because the economy is bad. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is really an indictment on Biden, and these numbers show.

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<v Speaker 1>And the numbers came out actually again with DeSantis and

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<v Speaker 1>Nikki Haley and a generic Republican and they're all beating

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden. I think that Joe Biden has a serious issue, Namely,

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<v Speaker 1>people think he's too old, that he's ineffective, and there

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<v Speaker 1>is both problems domestically with the border and inflation and

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<v Speaker 1>globally in Israel and Ukraine, and there's no sign of

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<v Speaker 1>things getting better at all. And I think that voters

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<v Speaker 1>are generally very concerned. I think he's isolated large groups

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<v Speaker 1>of Democrats, Black voters, young voters, Latino voters, and they

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<v Speaker 1>don't feel confident in him as a leader. And those

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<v Speaker 1>numbers The New York Times New York Times Siena poll

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<v Speaker 1>is an excellent polling firm, but it's not alone. The

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<v Speaker 1>numbers have been showing this gradual movement in a series

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<v Speaker 1>of polls, showing there's real problems. And I spoke to

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<v Speaker 1>several Democrat consultants and their opinions are either, yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a real issue. We're going to lose if Biden's the

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<v Speaker 1>nomini too, you know, hopefully things will change over the

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<v Speaker 1>next year. The big hobby in the New York Times

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<v Speaker 1>Santa Pol was if Trump's indicted, he goes from winning

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<v Speaker 1>almost every swing state to losing every swing state. So

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of them have their hat hang on the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of that Trump will be indicted, either in DC

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<v Speaker 1>or in Georgia.

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<v Speaker 2>It seems like a lot of these trials, Now there

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<v Speaker 2>are a lot of them, but it seems like in

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<v Speaker 2>each one the timeline is going to be a problem

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<v Speaker 2>for Democrats. So if the whole strategy seems to be,

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<v Speaker 2>or perhaps a large part of the strategy is get

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<v Speaker 2>Trump indicted, and I'm sorry, get Trump convicted, and then

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<v Speaker 2>all this changes. What if they can't get a trial

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<v Speaker 2>done and get that conviction on the books before the election.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and one that is moving at their fastest speed

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<v Speaker 1>is the Washington DC case. And the judge seems hell

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<v Speaker 1>bent on indicting Trump, and you know, the hope that

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<v Speaker 1>it will go to the Supreme Court seems I don't know,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems like a whimsical idea, but who knows. Other

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<v Speaker 1>things happened that could work in his favor and it

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<v Speaker 1>could move to a higher core. But that is I

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<v Speaker 1>think the Washington d C case is the case that's

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<v Speaker 1>most likely to be heard first. I think the New

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<v Speaker 1>York case is basically all garbage. Florida looks like it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to take a very long time to work itself out.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the two cases that matter are Georgia n.

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<v Speaker 1>Washington d C. As far as politically goes, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure about the logistics with it, but the Washington d C.

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<v Speaker 1>Judge seems hell bent on indicting Trump. She's indicting everybody

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<v Speaker 1>in associated January sixth. So you know, I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>I can't predict how it's going to go, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>not looking terrifically great for Trump as far as who

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<v Speaker 1>else she's convicted, and that all these people have made

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<v Speaker 1>plea deals saying that they're going to turn on the president.

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<v Speaker 1>They're going to sit there and say who's his that

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<v Speaker 1>he was responsible. So so we'll wait and we'll see.

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<v Speaker 1>That could change the entire parameters of the presidential election.

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<v Speaker 1>You see college educated whites going from D plus ten

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<v Speaker 1>to D plus thirty. And I mean, I have a

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<v Speaker 1>hard time seeing the how he would he would overcome that.

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<v Speaker 2>In some of this some of this stuff over the

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<v Speaker 2>weekend included David Axelrod of Obama Administration notoriety saying that

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<v Speaker 2>Biden needs to drop out, that only Biden can make

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<v Speaker 2>that decision for himself, meaning he's not going to bow

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<v Speaker 2>to pressure, right, you have to get him out for

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<v Speaker 2>there to be But you know, I sit here and

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<v Speaker 2>I say, okay, Ryan, then what's the plan you and

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<v Speaker 2>I talked about this a lot because I can always

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<v Speaker 2>people so mad at me because I keep saying, guys,

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<v Speaker 2>it's got to be Biden. And when I say it's

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<v Speaker 2>got to be Biden, if it's like Kamala Harris takes

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<v Speaker 2>over firm or something fine like that, I could see

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<v Speaker 2>them maybe doing. But this notion of some other candidate

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<v Speaker 2>who's just going to be the person that the party

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<v Speaker 2>coalesces around. Walk me through some of this, because I

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<v Speaker 2>feel like all I get these days are emails being like,

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<v Speaker 2>it won't be Biden. And I keep saying, I get

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<v Speaker 2>why everyone feels that way, but then who is it?

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<v Speaker 1>Right? Well, if Biden drops out in the next month

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<v Speaker 1>before the deadline for primaries, they're still a primary, Like

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<v Speaker 1>the Democratic primary doesn't stop because Biden drops out. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just that there's a month of qualifying and you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to see everybody from Gavin Newsom to Pritzker to Corey

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<v Speaker 1>Booker to Kamala Harris jump in and announce that they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to run for it, and they'll have a few

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<v Speaker 1>weeks basically to run a presidential campaign. And it's very

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<v Speaker 1>very difficult if Biden drops out after he's the nominee.

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<v Speaker 1>Then it's the DNC, the Democratic Governors Association, that's just

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<v Speaker 1>there and figures out who the nominee will be. It is,

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<v Speaker 1>with the exception of Corey Booker, almost all the leading

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<v Speaker 1>contenders who want to be president are white men. With

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<v Speaker 1>the exception of Gretchen Whitmer, they are almost entirely white men.

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<v Speaker 1>And the only other obvious cases that they're not are

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<v Speaker 1>Corey Booker and Kamala Harris. And the Democratic Party of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty three twenty twenty four is not going to

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<v Speaker 1>tell the first Black Asian female vice president you have

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<v Speaker 1>to step down to make way for another white guy.

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<v Speaker 1>I just don't see how that's possible. They are literally

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<v Speaker 1>nominating the new US Senator of California, a state that

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<v Speaker 1>is two percent black female. They nominate a black female

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<v Speaker 1>who doesn't even live in the state because they want

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<v Speaker 1>to give credence to the black female vote, which is

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<v Speaker 1>the most democratic vote in the country. They've picked a

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<v Speaker 1>US Supreme Court justice primarily based on her race and gender,

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't see how they're gonna sell Kamala, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>step aside. We have a white guy to sit there

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<v Speaker 1>and come to the rescue. It just doesn't seem like

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<v Speaker 1>in any calculation possible. In my mind, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>if it's not them, it will be common law, and

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<v Speaker 1>then she'll pick a look to a new vice president,

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<v Speaker 1>and that will be an interesting decision. I just don't

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<v Speaker 1>see how they tell the first female black, female, black

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<v Speaker 1>Asian female, whatever she is this week, to step aside

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<v Speaker 1>and to become to make way for a white guy.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, what I want to ask you about this the

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<v Speaker 2>six ' nine. Ryan. The argument then that it's gonna

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<v Speaker 2>be Biden. It's gonna be Biden and Kamala all the

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<v Speaker 2>way to convention. And then they're just gonna say, you

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<v Speaker 2>know what, it's actually somebody else. What do you make

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<v Speaker 2>of that? Oh and by the way, usually the people

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<v Speaker 2>that make this argument say it's gonna be Michelle Obama.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Michelle. Nothing makes me more insane than hearing Michelle

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<v Speaker 1>Obama's being the president. Hearing Michelle is like we had

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<v Speaker 1>to hear Oprah was gonna be president for twenty years.

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<v Speaker 1>That is as likely as Michelle Obama. It's a woman

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<v Speaker 1>who hates politics and touristsly hates politics, didn't want Barack

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<v Speaker 1>to be president, hated being first lady is making millions

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<v Speaker 1>as a celebrity. Did not even stay awake for the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty sixteen election. She went to bed early that night

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<v Speaker 1>and tell me who wins in the morning. I don't care.

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<v Speaker 1>She does not like politics at all. She does not

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<v Speaker 1>aspire to be a politician at all. She wants to

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<v Speaker 1>be a celebrity. She is a celebrity. And if you

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<v Speaker 1>have a choice of making millions of dollars and everyone

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<v Speaker 1>leaving you alone as you sell cookbooks and gardening books

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<v Speaker 1>and our adorn of the cover of magazines, why would

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<v Speaker 1>you want to be president? For She just doesn't. This

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<v Speaker 1>is not this is this is like the Oprah pipe dream.

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<v Speaker 1>And the only people I here talking about Michelle Obama

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<v Speaker 1>are Republicans, So put that aside. If it goes to

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<v Speaker 1>a convention floor vote, then you're gonna have delegates from

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<v Speaker 1>every single state start clamoring for one person or the other.

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<v Speaker 1>There is no key uniting democrat. I mean, Gavin Newsom

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<v Speaker 1>is somebody that is not a lot of media, a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of Republican media, especially in Republicans, are obsessed with

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<v Speaker 1>So let's take him as like the foil. He would

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<v Speaker 1>have to win delegates across the South, he'd have to

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<v Speaker 1>win delegates across the Northeast, He'd have to win delegates

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<v Speaker 1>in states that don't have high name I d and

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<v Speaker 1>I think the last time I checked, only like nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the average Democrat even knows really anything about

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<v Speaker 1>Gavin Newsom. So who Jeremy Pritz Then it becomes a

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<v Speaker 1>mad dash to the floor where you're going to have

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<v Speaker 1>delegates coalesce party the party establishment sit they're on whip

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<v Speaker 1>votes and they're not gonna whip votes against I just say,

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<v Speaker 1>oh no, they're not going to votes against the first

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<v Speaker 1>black female vice president. It's for a white guy who,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, has never been on a national ticket

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<v Speaker 1>and in many of these cases, have never been out

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<v Speaker 1>a ticket out on a federal ticket. There have only

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<v Speaker 1>been a ticket statewide for governor.

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<v Speaker 2>And so you're you're with me on this that it's

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<v Speaker 2>next November, it's going to be Biden or Kamala as

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<v Speaker 2>the Democrat, Like you're voting for Biden or Kamala. You're

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<v Speaker 2>with me on this because you know you and I

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<v Speaker 2>are kind of on an island here because the masses

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<v Speaker 2>are all still shouting at us about how it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be somebody.

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<v Speaker 1>Else I've heard. But think of how many people we

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<v Speaker 1>heard we're gonna be the president one day, and it

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<v Speaker 1>just never manifested because they never had anything going for them, really,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, and they were never serious contenders. The Michelle

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<v Speaker 1>Obama thing is a pipe dream. Gavin Newsom has never

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<v Speaker 1>been on a federal ballot is an entire life. Neither

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<v Speaker 1>has j R. Pritzker never, neither has ag Gretchen Whitmer.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, these are the people that are really looking

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<v Speaker 1>to launch presidential campaigns that they have been going to

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<v Speaker 1>early states for twenty twenty eight. They're not the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the It doesn't Presidential campaigns don't manifest out of

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<v Speaker 1>the clear blue sky. They take months and months, if

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<v Speaker 1>not years, to sit there and work on to launch.

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<v Speaker 1>If Biden is so weak right now that the chances

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<v Speaker 1>of them beating Biden are higher than they are in

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<v Speaker 1>a crowded field in twenty twenty eight, and yet they

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<v Speaker 1>are not doing it because essentially a lot of them

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<v Speaker 1>are good party people. They don't step outside the party apparatus,

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<v Speaker 1>and the party apparatus is still behind Joe Biden.

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<v Speaker 2>Right. We're going to talk about the RFK junior factor

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<v Speaker 2>here in a second. But first up, you know, this

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<v Speaker 2>past summer, an event thirty years in the making, finally

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<v Speaker 2>took place. My dad, Mason Sexton, who famously called the

0:12:19.897 --> 0:12:22.937
<v Speaker 2>nineteen eighty seven stock market crash on TV, went live

0:12:23.057 --> 0:12:25.937
<v Speaker 2>with his first public prediction in decades. He warned the

0:12:25.937 --> 0:12:28.537
<v Speaker 2>top was in and revealed his unique framework to take

0:12:28.537 --> 0:12:30.777
<v Speaker 2>advantage of the falling market that would follow right on

0:12:30.937 --> 0:12:33.777
<v Speaker 2>que The market peaked exactly when he said it would.

0:12:34.097 --> 0:12:36.537
<v Speaker 2>Those who listened to his unusual prediction, with some call

0:12:36.617 --> 0:12:39.297
<v Speaker 2>his prophecy, were richly rewarded. But now my dad is

0:12:39.337 --> 0:12:41.497
<v Speaker 2>coming forward with the next part of his prophecy. It's

0:12:41.497 --> 0:12:44.657
<v Speaker 2>a second insight that will catch even the most sophisticated

0:12:44.697 --> 0:12:48.577
<v Speaker 2>investors by surprise. On Tuesday next week, November fourteenth, he's

0:12:48.617 --> 0:12:51.977
<v Speaker 2>sharing all the details in an online event, including why

0:12:52.017 --> 0:12:54.337
<v Speaker 2>the next six months could make or break your portfolio.

0:12:54.737 --> 0:12:57.177
<v Speaker 2>I've followed my dad's work well as long as I've

0:12:57.217 --> 0:12:58.857
<v Speaker 2>been an adult, and I can follow this stuff, and

0:12:58.897 --> 0:13:01.377
<v Speaker 2>he's been right on the big stuff so many times.

0:13:01.777 --> 0:13:05.697
<v Speaker 2>Simply go to this website. The second Insight twenty twenty

0:13:05.697 --> 0:13:08.337
<v Speaker 2>three dot com to sign up for free. That's the

0:13:08.777 --> 0:13:12.257
<v Speaker 2>second Insight twenty twenty three dot com paid for by

0:13:12.297 --> 0:13:17.337
<v Speaker 2>New Paradigm Research. Ryan. You know, so we've seen the numbers.

0:13:17.337 --> 0:13:20.177
<v Speaker 2>We talked about this looks bad for Democrats. But RFK

0:13:20.377 --> 0:13:21.977
<v Speaker 2>Junior I was saying this al long. I think you

0:13:22.017 --> 0:13:23.777
<v Speaker 2>and I even talked about it here on either the

0:13:23.857 --> 0:13:27.457
<v Speaker 2>radio show or the podcast RFK Junior. The only people

0:13:27.457 --> 0:13:29.337
<v Speaker 2>that seem to get excited about him were on the right.

0:13:29.697 --> 0:13:32.377
<v Speaker 2>You know, I never heard Democrats that were like, oh, yeah,

0:13:32.417 --> 0:13:34.217
<v Speaker 2>we really need, you know, a Kennedy in the race

0:13:34.337 --> 0:13:37.257
<v Speaker 2>right now, who's ourn anti vaccine and not just anti

0:13:37.297 --> 0:13:39.937
<v Speaker 2>COVID vaccine by the way. And now it looks like

0:13:40.177 --> 0:13:42.457
<v Speaker 2>people are waking up to the fact that if he's

0:13:42.457 --> 0:13:44.017
<v Speaker 2>going to pull votes, he's going to pull more Trump

0:13:44.097 --> 0:13:46.497
<v Speaker 2>votes as a third party candidate. Is this something? Is

0:13:46.537 --> 0:13:48.657
<v Speaker 2>this something that people who want Trump to be president

0:13:48.737 --> 0:13:51.337
<v Speaker 2>should be concerned about or is it overblown?

0:13:52.257 --> 0:13:54.817
<v Speaker 1>It depends if he can get on the ballot anywhere,

0:13:55.137 --> 0:13:59.097
<v Speaker 1>because getting ballot access is extremely difficult in many statess

0:13:59.137 --> 0:14:02.297
<v Speaker 1>country the last I mean without a party like the

0:14:02.337 --> 0:14:04.697
<v Speaker 1>Libertarian Party of the Green Party, The last person to

0:14:04.737 --> 0:14:07.737
<v Speaker 1>do it was Ross Purew back in nineteen ninety six.

0:14:08.857 --> 0:14:10.497
<v Speaker 1>It is extremely it's.

0:14:10.417 --> 0:14:12.377
<v Speaker 2>So hard, like, what does it require, you know, give

0:14:12.377 --> 0:14:13.697
<v Speaker 2>me some sense for pevery state.

0:14:14.457 --> 0:14:17.257
<v Speaker 1>Every state has different requirements. In some states, you need

0:14:17.297 --> 0:14:20.257
<v Speaker 1>to get a certain number of signatures in every state

0:14:20.697 --> 0:14:23.417
<v Speaker 1>house district. In other states you just pay a fee

0:14:23.457 --> 0:14:25.457
<v Speaker 1>in other insistory. In other states you need to have

0:14:26.617 --> 0:14:29.737
<v Speaker 1>some other qualifying numbers. Mostly it's signatures and stuff like

0:14:29.777 --> 0:14:31.497
<v Speaker 1>that within a certain days, and they have to be

0:14:31.537 --> 0:14:33.497
<v Speaker 1>good and they could never have signed for other people.

0:14:33.537 --> 0:14:37.057
<v Speaker 1>It's very and it's very litigious, it's very expensive. Very

0:14:37.097 --> 0:14:40.057
<v Speaker 1>few people can actually get it done without an established

0:14:40.057 --> 0:14:43.737
<v Speaker 1>party on the ballot. Some states are fairly easy. It's

0:14:43.777 --> 0:14:45.337
<v Speaker 1>why Kanye was able to get in the ballot in

0:14:45.377 --> 0:14:49.217
<v Speaker 1>like Illinois back in twenty twenty. But a lot of

0:14:49.257 --> 0:14:52.457
<v Speaker 1>states are extremely difficult for ballot access. And the one

0:14:52.497 --> 0:14:54.257
<v Speaker 1>thing that Kennedy has in a lot of polls is

0:14:54.297 --> 0:14:57.337
<v Speaker 1>he has a higher favorability number than Trump or Biden.

0:14:57.937 --> 0:15:00.097
<v Speaker 1>So if this election comes down to who do you

0:15:00.177 --> 0:15:02.817
<v Speaker 1>hate less? Trump or Biden kind of the way that

0:15:02.857 --> 0:15:08.257
<v Speaker 1>twenty sixteen was. RFK is a good soft landing page.

0:15:08.417 --> 0:15:11.337
<v Speaker 1>The thing is that he's kind of trying to create

0:15:11.337 --> 0:15:15.857
<v Speaker 1>a coalition based on very weird policy dynamics. So he's

0:15:15.977 --> 0:15:18.497
<v Speaker 1>very anti vax He's for a wall on the Mexican

0:15:18.537 --> 0:15:22.697
<v Speaker 1>border and to stop the invasion, obviously to appeal to Republicans,

0:15:22.937 --> 0:15:26.217
<v Speaker 1>and at the same time he is for math, for

0:15:26.297 --> 0:15:30.177
<v Speaker 1>amnesty for illegal immigrants, he is for reparations for former

0:15:30.257 --> 0:15:35.977
<v Speaker 1>sate for the descendants of slaves, things that recoil Republicans completely.

0:15:36.097 --> 0:15:39.177
<v Speaker 1>And I don't really understand what kind of coalition he's

0:15:39.257 --> 0:15:42.617
<v Speaker 1>essentially trying to build unless he is going on like

0:15:42.737 --> 0:15:45.177
<v Speaker 1>vibes and just saying, you know, I can be trusted,

0:15:45.177 --> 0:15:47.217
<v Speaker 1>and I have all these Hollywood friends, and you know,

0:15:47.697 --> 0:15:49.857
<v Speaker 1>his wife is a celebrity. He's got a lot of

0:15:49.897 --> 0:15:52.297
<v Speaker 1>close celebrity friends. If they all come out of the

0:15:52.297 --> 0:15:55.177
<v Speaker 1>woodwork and say, you know, RFK is a great guy,

0:15:55.537 --> 0:15:57.777
<v Speaker 1>it could convince some people maybe to sit there and

0:15:57.857 --> 0:16:00.057
<v Speaker 1>cast their ballot for him. If you don't like anybody

0:16:00.057 --> 0:16:02.457
<v Speaker 1>and you're like whatever, it couldn't get worse than the

0:16:02.457 --> 0:16:04.257
<v Speaker 1>two Octagerians currently in the race.

0:16:05.177 --> 0:16:07.697
<v Speaker 2>You think Cornell West could have enough of an impact

0:16:07.697 --> 0:16:10.057
<v Speaker 2>that it'd be worth Republicans trying to help him because

0:16:10.297 --> 0:16:11.897
<v Speaker 2>he would be taking more votes from Biden.

0:16:13.177 --> 0:16:15.457
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, if he can get on the ballot anywhere. But

0:16:15.577 --> 0:16:20.017
<v Speaker 1>remember in Wisconsin back in twenty twenty, the Green Party

0:16:20.137 --> 0:16:23.337
<v Speaker 1>was disqualified by a federal judge for having the Republican

0:16:23.377 --> 0:16:25.537
<v Speaker 1>Party helped him get on the ballot. Had the Green

0:16:25.577 --> 0:16:27.497
<v Speaker 1>Party been on the ballot in twenty twenty, it is

0:16:27.617 --> 0:16:30.017
<v Speaker 1>very likely that Trump would have won Wisconsin. And in

0:16:30.057 --> 0:16:33.377
<v Speaker 1>the three states that matter the most Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

0:16:33.417 --> 0:16:36.137
<v Speaker 1>At twenty twenty, the Green Party was disqualified in all

0:16:36.137 --> 0:16:39.617
<v Speaker 1>three states. So it just depends on kind of the

0:16:39.657 --> 0:16:42.057
<v Speaker 1>metrics of which you get on the ballot and the

0:16:42.097 --> 0:16:45.017
<v Speaker 1>ballot access and who gets it downware that's like a

0:16:45.017 --> 0:16:47.097
<v Speaker 1>big million dollar question that no one's really kind of,

0:16:47.457 --> 0:16:50.057
<v Speaker 1>you know, dived into. But it's also can they get there?

0:16:50.097 --> 0:16:52.297
<v Speaker 1>How much money does he raise? I mean, can he

0:16:52.337 --> 0:16:54.617
<v Speaker 1>get on a debate stage. I mean, we haven't had

0:16:54.777 --> 0:16:57.097
<v Speaker 1>a third party candidate on a presidential debate stage since

0:16:57.177 --> 0:17:01.337
<v Speaker 1>nineteen ninety six, So it's possible, but it's it's very unlikely.

0:17:01.377 --> 0:17:02.897
<v Speaker 1>And if you're't on the debate stage, it's hard to

0:17:02.937 --> 0:17:06.417
<v Speaker 1>sit there and see how you can really mount a

0:17:06.457 --> 0:17:07.697
<v Speaker 1>serious national campaign.

0:17:07.737 --> 0:17:11.657
<v Speaker 2>One more for you, Ryan, We got a Republican debate

0:17:11.737 --> 0:17:15.217
<v Speaker 2>in a few days. Is the primary over or is

0:17:15.257 --> 0:17:16.657
<v Speaker 2>there still a path for DeSantis?

0:17:17.737 --> 0:17:19.897
<v Speaker 1>You know it's so funny and Christina push on tweet

0:17:19.937 --> 0:17:23.497
<v Speaker 1>issues like the Trump people say the Waka Flaca endorsement

0:17:23.537 --> 0:17:27.017
<v Speaker 1>is more serious than the Kim Reynolds Governor of Iowa endorsement.

0:17:27.617 --> 0:17:29.897
<v Speaker 1>Iowa is a state where it's a caucus, it's not

0:17:29.937 --> 0:17:34.417
<v Speaker 1>a primary organization matters. If the Iowa GOP and the

0:17:34.417 --> 0:17:38.457
<v Speaker 1>governor and the evangelicals are all mounting a campaign for Desantas,

0:17:38.937 --> 0:17:41.337
<v Speaker 1>then Desandas can still have an ups in Iowa and

0:17:41.417 --> 0:17:44.057
<v Speaker 1>maybe people will have a second look at things. The

0:17:44.137 --> 0:17:47.777
<v Speaker 1>big thing that going for Desantas in January when he

0:17:47.817 --> 0:17:49.617
<v Speaker 1>was leading in the polls was that people have the

0:17:49.657 --> 0:17:52.937
<v Speaker 1>impression that Trump could not win. With all of these polls,

0:17:52.977 --> 0:17:55.417
<v Speaker 1>it is really difficult to sit there and make that

0:17:55.617 --> 0:18:01.057
<v Speaker 1>argument still, And if it was a two man race,

0:18:01.057 --> 0:18:02.737
<v Speaker 1>it'd be easy to make that argument because a lot

0:18:02.737 --> 0:18:05.097
<v Speaker 1>of Republicans do not want Trump. But as long as

0:18:05.137 --> 0:18:07.857
<v Speaker 1>it's a splintered race and as long as Tim Scott

0:18:07.897 --> 0:18:11.657
<v Speaker 1>and Nikki Haley and Vivaka and Chris are still floating around.

0:18:12.817 --> 0:18:15.657
<v Speaker 1>It gets it gets close to impossible. But if if

0:18:15.777 --> 0:18:19.617
<v Speaker 1>Iowa breaks, maybe New Hampshires, things can happen. I just

0:18:19.737 --> 0:18:21.777
<v Speaker 1>very hard to see how after Iowa New Hampshire and

0:18:21.857 --> 0:18:25.097
<v Speaker 1>upset can happen because he is basically a He's a

0:18:25.337 --> 0:18:29.697
<v Speaker 1>facto incumbent Trump right now, and he has not had

0:18:29.777 --> 0:18:33.177
<v Speaker 1>the ability to have his credentials really question and they

0:18:33.217 --> 0:18:37.977
<v Speaker 1>have and they took too long to attack him on

0:18:38.137 --> 0:18:40.177
<v Speaker 1>his brand, and his brand is you know, I'm this

0:18:40.297 --> 0:18:42.617
<v Speaker 1>honest guy and I they don't. They hate me because

0:18:42.657 --> 0:18:44.817
<v Speaker 1>they hate you. And I built the wall and I

0:18:44.817 --> 0:18:46.697
<v Speaker 1>did all these things when he didn't do a lot

0:18:46.737 --> 0:18:49.857
<v Speaker 1>of those things, and there was really a question on

0:18:50.497 --> 0:18:52.737
<v Speaker 1>the integrity of what he was able to accomplish, on

0:18:52.817 --> 0:18:56.257
<v Speaker 1>the fact that, you know, his entire political machine right

0:18:56.297 --> 0:18:59.937
<v Speaker 1>now are all established and Republicans. The people who are

0:19:00.017 --> 0:19:02.497
<v Speaker 1>likely to fill his cabinet as of right now are

0:19:02.537 --> 0:19:06.377
<v Speaker 1>mostly established and Republicans. It's going to be a lot

0:19:06.417 --> 0:19:09.577
<v Speaker 1>of it's Trump two point zero. And that those warning

0:19:09.617 --> 0:19:12.777
<v Speaker 1>signs were never put up ahead by any of the

0:19:12.777 --> 0:19:15.177
<v Speaker 1>people questioning him. They were attacking him on the kind

0:19:15.177 --> 0:19:17.097
<v Speaker 1>of the dumbest stuff for the longest time, and I

0:19:17.097 --> 0:19:18.537
<v Speaker 1>think that too much time I'm buying.

0:19:18.777 --> 0:19:20.177
<v Speaker 2>I think they were afraid. They were afraid of the

0:19:20.217 --> 0:19:23.857
<v Speaker 2>Trump bass too and alienating them forever. Ryan, thanks for

0:19:23.857 --> 0:19:26.097
<v Speaker 2>being here. Everybody, go check out if you're on substack,

0:19:26.177 --> 0:19:27.737
<v Speaker 2>or if you're not, you can go check it out anyway.

0:19:27.817 --> 0:19:30.777
<v Speaker 2>Sign up the National Populist newsletter. I'm a subscriber to

0:19:30.857 --> 0:19:33.297
<v Speaker 2>Ryan's newsletter. Check it out. Ryan, good to see you,

0:19:33.337 --> 0:19:33.617
<v Speaker 2>my friend.

0:19:33.617 --> 0:19:34.817
<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much, Thank you,