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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe for this Tuesday, the eighteenth

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Speaker 1: of April in London.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, Making work pay, UK wage growth accelerates,

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Speaker 2: leaving the BOE with an inflation reheading.

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Speaker 1: Flow Rider deposit outflows top sixty billion dollars at key

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Speaker 1: US lenders as customers hunt for better returns.

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Speaker 2: Apple puts down banking routes. The tech giant teams up

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Speaker 2: with Goldman to offer market leading savings rates.

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Speaker 3: Bosses pay workers to move closer to the office, a

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Speaker 3: call to discuss the menopause at work, and the price

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Speaker 3: of food basics to jump by eighty percent. Those are

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Speaker 3: the stories we're looking at in today's papers. And I'm

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Speaker 3: leanne Gerrins.

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Speaker 1: Plus has high inflation sounded the deathnel for the sixty

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Speaker 1: forty portfolio. Blackrock says it's time to ditch the strategy.

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Speaker 4: That's all straight ahead. On Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, the business

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Speaker 4: news you need to start your day in just one

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Speaker 4: fifteen minute podcast on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business App

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Speaker 4: and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Good morning from London. I'm Stephen Carron and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Anna Edwards. You're listening to Daybreak Europe top stories

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Speaker 2: this morning. Let's start with that UK wage growth has

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Speaker 2: unexpectedly accelerated, adding to the inflationary pressure on the UK economy.

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Speaker 2: Average journings excluding bonuses rose by six point six percent

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Speaker 2: in the three months through February compared with a year ago.

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Speaker 2: That's the same pace as the previous period, but economists

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Speaker 2: had expected a slowdown in that figure. Bloomberg's UK correspondent

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Speaker 2: Lizzie Burden says, the data is now sending a clear

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Speaker 2: message to the bore.

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Speaker 5: We had expected mixed signals, but actually this all points

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Speaker 5: in the same direction. The labor markets even tighter than

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Speaker 5: the Bank of England had thought, had hoped, and it

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Speaker 5: really ramps up the pressure for another hike, which is

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Speaker 5: what markets already expected.

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Speaker 2: The ONS data also shows that three hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: eight thousand working days were lost in February to industrial action,

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Speaker 2: as civil servants, nurses and teachers all went on stripe.

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Speaker 2: This as pay in the public sector grew by five

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Speaker 2: point three percent from a year earlier, compared with six

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Speaker 2: point nine percent in the private sector.

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Speaker 1: Turning to China next, where the economy grew by four

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Speaker 1: point five percent in the first quarter from a year earlier,

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Speaker 1: the fastest pace in a year, a rebound and consumer

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Speaker 1: spending and ramping up on government infrastructure investment helping to

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Speaker 1: boost growth. Morgan Stanley's chief China economist, Robin Jan believes

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Speaker 1: there is more to come from the world's second largest economy.

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Speaker 6: We do think if China can maintain that growth, it's

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Speaker 6: still able to cross so called a middle income becoming

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Speaker 6: a high income economy by next year. So even if

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Speaker 6: they want more quality growth, they still need a certain

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Speaker 6: growth level, and at this moment the year today, it

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Speaker 6: looks like they're on track to reach that growth and

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Speaker 6: we are looking for a lot of about five percent

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Speaker 6: growth for next year.

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Speaker 1: Despite Robin Jing's optimism, the latest indicators from March show

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Speaker 1: a more mixed picture, with industrial activity remaining subject.

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Speaker 2: In the United States, money is being moved out of

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Speaker 2: bank accounts at a pace not seen since the aftermath

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Speaker 2: of the two thousand and eight financial crisis. Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 2: Report of Value TITEL explains.

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Speaker 7: US savers are not hanging around for low returns. The

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Speaker 7: average bank rate is more than four percentage points lower

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Speaker 7: than the Fed's current benchmark rate, and customers have noticed.

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Speaker 7: Charles Schwab, State Street, and M and T saw almost

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Speaker 7: sixty billion dollars in combined bank deposit outflows just in

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Speaker 7: the first quarter. It puts a spotlight on how larger

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Speaker 7: banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Bank of America fared.

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Speaker 7: Their results are out later this week in London. Valerie

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Speaker 7: Titel Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 2: And it's not just traditional banks trying to hoover up

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Speaker 2: moving consumers. Goldwyn Sax is teaming up with Apple to

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Speaker 2: grab a biggest slice of the deposit pie. The tech

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Speaker 2: giants is offering an industry beating four point one five

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Speaker 2: percent annual yield to lure in customers. It adds to

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Speaker 2: Apple's expansion into financial services products, which includes a buy now,

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Speaker 2: pay later program.

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Speaker 1: This coming across as Apple has opened its first store

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Speaker 1: in India as well. Christine la Guard meanwhile, is warning

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Speaker 1: that a fragmentation of the global economy is posing a

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Speaker 1: challenge for central bankers. Here's what the ECB President tolds

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Speaker 1: the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

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Speaker 8: Does duopolitics lead to a fragmentation of the global economy

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Speaker 8: into computing blocks? This cause for greater policy cohesion, not

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Speaker 8: compromising independence, but recognizing the interdependence between policies and our

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Speaker 8: heat can best achieve their objective if aligned with a

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Speaker 8: strategic goal.

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Speaker 1: The European Center Bank Center Bank President's comments reflect wider

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Speaker 1: fears that rising political tensions will weigh on the global

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Speaker 1: economy by disrupting trade, weakening growth, and pushing up inflation.

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Speaker 1: Christina Guard also said the rifts caused by the rivalry

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Speaker 1: between the US and China could increase the rate of

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Speaker 1: inflation by five percent over.

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Speaker 2: In the United States. Black Rock will begin selling failed

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Speaker 2: bank securities today. Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has the story.

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Speaker 9: Black Rock is launching a month's long process to help

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Speaker 9: the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp offload one hundred and fourteen

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Speaker 9: billion dollars of assets it picked up from Silicon Valley

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Speaker 9: Bank and Signature Bank. According to emails about the sales

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Speaker 9: sent to investors seen by Bloomberg, BlackRock's Financial Markets Advisory

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Speaker 9: unit is going to be launching mortgage backed security pool

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Speaker 9: sales and continue the process later in the week. The

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Speaker 9: government hired Blackrock to sell the collapse bank securities earlier

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Speaker 9: this month, highlighting the firm's role as an advisor to

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Speaker 9: regulators in times of financial peril in New York. Charlie

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Speaker 9: Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

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Speaker 1: Another needs from Blackrock. The FUM manager's strategists are now

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Speaker 1: advising investors to ditch the sixty to forty portfolio to

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Speaker 1: navigate higher interest rates. The Blackrock Investment Institution now recommends

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Speaker 1: quote breaking up traditional asset allocation buckets and moving away

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Speaker 1: from broad allocations to public equities and bonds. Of Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: US sixty forty portfolio index up by six point three

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Speaker 1: percent this year, but that's after tumbling by almost seventeen

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Speaker 1: percent in twenty twenty two, which was the biggest annual

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Speaker 1: drop in over a decade. So those are our top

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Speaker 1: stories on the program this morning. And if you're looking

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Speaker 1: for any news on the terminal to make us worried

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Speaker 1: about the future of our jobs, our good old friend

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Speaker 1: chat gpt is back in the news and it's deciphering

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Speaker 1: fed speech.

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Speaker 2: You seem to like bringing me these stories.

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Speaker 1: Yes, exactly, it's something personal, I promise, but it does

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Speaker 1: seem like the two papers have looked at research of

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Speaker 1: how the chatbot performed in what's debscribed as markish relevant tasks,

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Speaker 1: so deciphering whether fed commentary was hawkish or dubvish, and

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Speaker 1: one in determining whether the headlines were good or bad

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Speaker 1: news for stock markets. So I'm sure it could speed

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Speaker 1: up some people's jobs. Certainly could help to give me

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Speaker 1: some extra vocabulary, perhaps to describe moves as they're happening.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe we had a little sleep in, a little

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Speaker 2: lie in in the morning.

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Speaker 10: Sleep.

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Speaker 2: There's the upside for you on having slightly less personal thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Though when it comes to AI, there's the whole chat

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Speaker 2: GPT story or the rivals to it. So Elon Musk

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Speaker 2: confirming overnight that he is looking to step into that space.

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Speaker 2: He wants to create a rival. He was involved in

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Speaker 2: open ai in the early days, but he wants to

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Speaker 2: create rivals to Google's Deep Mind and to Microsoft's Open Ai,

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Speaker 2: so look for him as the latest chatbot. This opens

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Speaker 2: lots of questions around regulation. We picked up on these

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV earlier, around how you align if you

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Speaker 2: align these chatbots with human values and who's human values?

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Speaker 2: And then of course there's the existential conversation around AI,

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Speaker 2: which is probably a little bit much for eight eight

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Speaker 2: on a Tuesday morning, but yeah, as soon as you

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Speaker 2: go down that road, it's mind blowing.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, among other things. Yes, exactly. I think that's a

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Speaker 1: very fairly codent assessment. Let's dig into some of it

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Speaker 1: more closer to home data though. This is the latest

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Speaker 1: UK jobs numbers out this morning. We've got our senior

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Speaker 1: UK economist Dan Hanson with us for more. Dan, good

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Speaker 1: morning to you. So the big surprise in these numbers

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Speaker 1: was wage growth unchanged at six point six percent. Why

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Speaker 1: hasn't that come down?

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Speaker 10: That's a really good question.

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Speaker 11: I think the reason why is that we're seeing continuing

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Speaker 11: to see I should say, the influence of the tightness

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Speaker 11: of the labor market. The labor market is loosening, so

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Speaker 11: we've seen the unemployment rate pick up a little bit

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Speaker 11: in the data this.

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Speaker 10: Morning, but it's loosening from a very very.

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Speaker 11: Tight from a tight point. So I think what we're

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Speaker 11: seeing is that still coming through. And the other thing

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Speaker 11: to say about wage growth is that inflation is still

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Speaker 11: very high, and so that employees look at that and

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Speaker 11: they bargain for higher wages in the context of a

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Speaker 11: tight labor market. So it's that combination of a tight

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Speaker 11: labor market high inflation is still continuing to push up

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Speaker 11: on wage growth, and it's going to come as quite

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Speaker 11: a surprise, I think to the Bank of England as well.

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Speaker 2: And we're waiting for inflation data due out tomorrow then Dan,

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Speaker 2: we'll expect that to come down from ten point four

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Speaker 2: down to wow, single digits nine point eight. We'll see

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Speaker 2: if that happens. But all of this in the context

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Speaker 2: of the wage story that you described there, where private

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Speaker 2: sector wages are up by what's six point nine percent,

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Speaker 2: public sector five point three percent? What's your focus you

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Speaker 2: look when you look at that side of the data.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, that's a good question.

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Speaker 11: So I think the thing to really focus in on

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Speaker 11: is private sector wages, and the Bank of England has

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Speaker 11: been very clear that it's looking at private sector wages

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Speaker 11: and particularly private sector wages and surprises.

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Speaker 10: On that metric. And I think this morning's data was

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Speaker 10: a big surprise.

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Speaker 11: So if you look at it or look at the

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Speaker 11: data public sector, private sector, the surprising wage growth was

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Speaker 11: driven by the private sector. So as I say, as

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Speaker 11: I said in the answer the first question, I think

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Speaker 11: that is going to definitely peak the interest of the

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Speaker 11: Bank of England.

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Speaker 10: You're right, we've got CPI data tomorrow.

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Speaker 11: But I think looking at that the scale of the surprise,

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Speaker 11: I think it's going to be quite.

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Speaker 10: Hard for them to ignore that that message that's coming

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Speaker 10: from the data.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean put that in context of where we

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Speaker 1: are thinking on the Bank of England's next decision. Then

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Speaker 1: is this going to move the dial in terms of

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Speaker 1: whether or not there is a pause or another hike.

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Speaker 10: Yeah.

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Speaker 11: So I mean, just to put the numbers in context,

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Speaker 11: I mean you said there, we've got six.

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Speaker 10: Point nine percent on private sector pay growth the.

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Speaker 11: Bank of England, and we think as well that the

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Speaker 11: level of pay growth that is consistent with the inflation

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Speaker 11: target is about three percent, So you're well over double

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Speaker 11: the level that you need to hit the inflation target

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Speaker 11: on a consistent and in consistent.

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Speaker 10: Basis in the medium term.

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Speaker 11: I mean to answer your question, Stephen, I think for us,

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Speaker 11: and we've put out a note this morning on this,

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Speaker 11: this tips the balance towards them hiking in May. Now,

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Speaker 11: this this is such a big surprise relative to our

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Speaker 11: forecast and we think relative to their forecast. So I

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Speaker 11: think even if you do get a slow down in

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Speaker 11: inflation tomorrow from ten point four percent, we're expecting nine

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Speaker 11: point eight percent. That's obviously still extremely high relative to

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Speaker 11: a two percent target. We think this pay They'll focus

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Speaker 11: in on this pay growth number and the fact that

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Speaker 11: this gives them signs that they will.

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Speaker 10: Inflation is looking persistent, it is looking entrenched. I think, yeah,

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Speaker 10: I think it's took.

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Speaker 2: And if I think, FX markets must have been with

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Speaker 2: you as we saw the pound jump three tenths percent

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Speaker 2: as a result of this one twenty four to fifteen

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Speaker 2: is where we trade on cable Dan, Thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: UK economists here at Bloomberg, Dan Hanson with us with

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Speaker 2: the latest there arp Next, Bosses pay workers to move

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Speaker 2: closer to the office, apparently a call to discuss the

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Speaker 2: menopause at work, and the price of food basics jumps

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Speaker 2: by eighty percent.

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Speaker 4: Now the paper review on blue Bird Daybreak Europe, the

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Speaker 4: news you need to know from today's papers, and.

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Speaker 1: Bloombergsley and garrens is with us in studio with the

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Speaker 1: details of those stories. Lee and let's start in the

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Speaker 1: Wall Street journal. Bosses pay workers to move closer to officers.

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Speaker 1: This isn't a case of asking people to move in

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Speaker 1: across the street, though, is it.

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Speaker 2: No, it's not.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, so companies are bringing back relocation benefits Stephen, meaning

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Speaker 3: that workers are getting paid again to move across the

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Speaker 3: country and around the world. Now, this latest push shows

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Speaker 3: that companies, both big and small, believe employees actually do

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Speaker 3: better when they come into the office and work. And

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Speaker 3: this is all according to the story in the Wall

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Speaker 3: Street Journal. Indeed, says job listings in the US that

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Speaker 3: mention relocation benefits were actually up nearly seventy five percent

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Speaker 3: in February when they did compare that data with a

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Speaker 3: year before. Now, some employees are also paying the cost

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Speaker 3: to move remote hires, those people hired during the pandemic

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Speaker 3: back on a site. Now, I was thinking, I wonder

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Speaker 3: how much a cost does move So nineteen thousand dollars

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Speaker 3: for a renter, seventy two thousand dollars for a homeowner,

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Speaker 3: And this is all according to ARC relocation data, once

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Speaker 3: again mentioned in the paper. And I was just thinking,

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Speaker 3: does this mark a new movement in the way companies

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Speaker 3: think about remote working? Are we moving away from you know,

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Speaker 3: that homeworking we had during the pandemic. Now, remember this

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Speaker 3: is over in the US, not in the UK, So

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Speaker 3: I do wonder if it's a similar picture.

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Speaker 2: Okay, take us on to the next story that We've

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Speaker 2: picked out this morning. Then Leanne, the story reads, be

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Speaker 2: like Richard Branson and discussed the menopausells. I not sure

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Speaker 2: I ever thought I'd put together, but Bossies urged this in

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Speaker 2: a headline in the Times. This is what the Times

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Speaker 2: headline says. Tell us what it is that Richard Branson's

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Speaker 2: been doing and where that takes us in this conversation.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I will Anna. I also never thought I'd say

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Speaker 3: those words altogether, but here we are. So the former

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Speaker 3: Virgin Money boss discusses how Richard Branson helped her realize

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Speaker 3: the impact of menopause. Now, this is a really powerful

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Speaker 3: article that Jane and Gadea talks about, and she also

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Speaker 3: discusses her personal struggles. It's very honest about what she

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Speaker 3: went through while she was going through menopause. Now, Gadiah

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Speaker 3: says at the time, she didn't realize that all her

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Speaker 3: emotions that she was experiencing were actually linked to the

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Speaker 3: menopause and why. That's because she says that no one

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Speaker 3: actually discusses the top openly and her argument as they

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Speaker 3: should be talking to each other. Interestingly, she says Richard

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Speaker 3: Branson was the only person who noticed it. They had

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Speaker 3: an extremely close relationship, but is important to say this,

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Speaker 3: And he actually said to her, you seem difficult at

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Speaker 3: the moment and asked her if it was the menopause,

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Speaker 3: and she said, we need role models like Branson in

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Speaker 3: the workplace who are understanding and also allowed the occasional

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Speaker 3: day off and recognize the struggles women are really going

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Speaker 3: through at this time. Gadiah interestingly says, I think ministers

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Speaker 3: are right not to support menopause leave, saying it's too

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Speaker 3: structured for something that as a least a structured life

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Speaker 3: event she's ever experienced. This is a really interesting piece

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Speaker 3: on the way she suffered in her life and at

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Speaker 3: the work and at the workplace due to menopause.

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Speaker 2: Right, yeah, and very important, as you point out Lean

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Speaker 2: to say that they had this very close relationship, because

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Speaker 2: I can't imagine it goes well for every boss to

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Speaker 2: ask their v male employees if they're difficult, you know,

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Speaker 2: is it is it the menopause. I just can imagine

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Speaker 2: how that conversation might go wrong, but I'm very glad

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Speaker 2: that it went right in this particular case. Stephen, move

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Speaker 2: us on.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to the Guardian next. Leanne, which has been

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Speaker 1: looking at the cost of British food basics increasing by

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Speaker 1: up to eighty percent in a year. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we're surprised at this stage the prices are going up

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Speaker 1: eighty percent. Those seems enormous.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we're not surprised that prices are going up, but

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Speaker 3: eighty percent. You are right, it's enormous. And it's also

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Speaker 3: the basics that are being affected. Watch lots of people

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Speaker 3: rely on and now the price of a staple food

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Speaker 3: such as cheddar, cheese, white bread and pork sausages have

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Speaker 3: actually sowed by eighty percent in some shops over the

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Speaker 3: past year. And as you say, Stephen, this really comes

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Speaker 3: as inflation sends prices of items on supermarket shelves sky high.

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Speaker 3: Porridge oats actually have seen the steepest rice that's up

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Speaker 3: thirty five percent according to the Consumer Group, which other

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Speaker 3: basics used daily are also skyrocketing, like skimmed milk that's

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Speaker 3: up a thirty three point six percent, and as does

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Speaker 3: budget just essential pork sausages were also up by seventy

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Speaker 3: three percent. So this is a bleak picture and it

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Speaker 3: is Witch's latest supermarket food and drink a tracker that

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Speaker 3: the Guardian is speaking about, and like I said, bleak

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Speaker 3: picture for millions of people who are already saying they're

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Speaker 3: having to skip meals to pay for their heating bills,

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Speaker 3: and those increase in the bills we're paying for our

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Speaker 3: homes