Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Chevron lining up a small fleet of ships sailing to
Speaker 2: Venezuela as the company emerges as the only exporter of
Speaker 2: the country's oil following Maduro's aster. This as the White
Speaker 2: House plans to meet with oil industry executives. Joining us
Speaker 2: now and please to say we have Patrick Duddy. He
Speaker 2: is a visiting senior lecturer at Duke University and the
Speaker 2: former US Ambassador to Venezuela for both President Bush and
Speaker 2: President Obama. Ambassador, fantastic to have you with us. I
Speaker 2: want to back up a little bit and just talk
Speaker 2: about what unfolded over the weekend. We know that over
Speaker 2: the past several months, the US military has really ramped
Speaker 2: up his presence in the region. But even with that
Speaker 2: in mind, we're you surprised at all to see this
Speaker 2: weekend raid and the ouster of Nicholas Maduro.
Speaker 3: No I was not it had it was evident for
Speaker 3: some time that the force which had been deployed to
Speaker 3: the Southern Caribbean was larger than what might have been
Speaker 3: necessary if the only mission had been to blow up
Speaker 3: drug boats. Additionally, after the the forces in the Caribbean
Speaker 3: struck that port facility the other day, a couple of
Speaker 3: days before the apprehension of Nicholas Maduro and his wife.
Speaker 3: It was my view that the that signaled to really
Speaker 3: the entire region, and it should have signaled to the
Speaker 3: to the Maduro regime that the President Trump was not joking.
Speaker 3: This was not a bluff, and in striking the port
Speaker 3: he had, he, that is to say, President to Trump
Speaker 3: had made clear his willingness to go further.
Speaker 2: Yes, certainly, now with the benefit of hindsight, we can
Speaker 2: say that this was not a bluff on the part
Speaker 2: of President Trump. And I would love to hear your
Speaker 2: thoughts on what the motivation is here. What is the
Speaker 2: US trying to accomplish. Is this about pursuing a regime
Speaker 2: change in Venezuela, Is this about drug trafficking? Or is
Speaker 2: it as simple as oil? What do you make of it?
Speaker 3: Well, I think it's a combination of almost all of
Speaker 3: those factors. What I would suggest is that it is
Speaker 3: important to understand the nature of the regime. The Trump
Speaker 3: administration has said repeatedly this is not a legitimate government,
Speaker 3: and that is actually accurate. The government, the Maduro regime
Speaker 3: was not recognized as legitimate by most of the democratic
Speaker 3: nations in the world. They walked away from the most
Speaker 3: recent electoral exercise, which they lost overwhelmingly, and as their
Speaker 3: legitimacy evaporated, the regime became increasingly increasingly authoritarian and repressive.
Speaker 3: This resulted in, among other things, eight million refugees. Eight
Speaker 3: million Venezuelan has fled their country. Yeah, an enormous outflow,
Speaker 3: and not surprisingly, as their illicit economy tanked, illicit activity
Speaker 3: spiked and that means drug trafficking.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I am curious, though, Ambassador, as to what the solution is,
Speaker 1: because when we talk about Venezuela's problems, this is not
Speaker 1: something recent when you were in advising presidents back in
Speaker 1: the day. I think Chavez was on a second go
Speaker 1: round as leader of this country. I can't remember time
Speaker 1: in my lifetime, at least not as an adult, where
Speaker 1: we've seen a viable, stable economic machine in Venezuela. Do
Speaker 1: you have any hope or faith that it will be
Speaker 1: different this time with whatever changes are afoot down the pipe.
Speaker 3: Well, I would say hope, but perhaps not faith. The
Speaker 3: You know, when President Chammas was elected in nineteen ninety eight,
Speaker 3: Venezuela was producing around three million barrels on the day.
Speaker 3: Today it is barely and perhaps not even producing a
Speaker 3: million barrels today. Between twenty thirteen and twenty twenty three,
Speaker 3: the economy contracted more than seventy percent. Some argue as
Speaker 3: much as seventy five percent. This has caused effectively chaos
Speaker 3: on the ground. And I think what we're seeing with
Speaker 3: the Trump administration's approach is a determination to revive what
Speaker 3: has always been the heart and soul of the Venezuelan economy,
Speaker 3: which is the oil sector. And that sector is dilapidated
Speaker 3: and has been incompetently managed, and there has been an
Speaker 3: enormous outflow of petroleum professionals. In fact, many of something
Speaker 3: like eighteen thousand of them were fired by President Chamas
Speaker 3: after a strike in I believe it was two thousand
Speaker 3: and two, and then dismissed the virtually the entire workforce
Speaker 3: in two thousand and three. So I think about the
Speaker 3: Trump administration has decided is that they can If they
Speaker 3: can build back the oil sector, it will not only
Speaker 3: be good for Venezuela, it will be good for us,
Speaker 3: so it will be good for the region. This is
Speaker 3: going to require a measure of social stability in Venezuela.
Speaker 3: And that's the challenge of the moment. After all, Maduro
Speaker 3: his wife are gone, but the regime is still in Playee.
Speaker 1: Well, that's what I'm curious about. I mean, I mean,
Speaker 1: why should we have faith that that stability will come
Speaker 1: if the people that Trump himself, the Trump administration itself
Speaker 1: is said we're comfortable with, are basically the people who
Speaker 1: are working under Maduro. Do we have any sense that
Speaker 1: their allegiances would somehow shift away from Maduro and to
Speaker 1: US policy.
Speaker 3: I don't think their allegiances are going to shift, And
Speaker 3: in particular, Dulcia Rodriguez sworn in I think yesterday as
Speaker 3: interim president was a part of Maduro's inner circle. What
Speaker 3: I think is going on is the Trump administration is
Speaker 3: decided to work with some of those people who are
Speaker 3: still in positions of authority to manage a transition. What
Speaker 3: I believe is the case is that the Trump administration
Speaker 3: wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and
Speaker 3: others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussin.
Speaker 3: Central to that was the US went in and essentially
Speaker 3: dismissed the entire political class as well as all of
Speaker 3: the military, and what followed was chaos and something looked
Speaker 3: awfully like sivil.
Speaker 1: All right, Patrick, we have to leave it there. And
Speaker 1: that's a great point we should point out. Just about
Speaker 1: an hour ago we had caught up with Richard hass
Speaker 1: of course, who was very instrumental in the march into
Speaker 1: Iraq and Afghanistan. We'll catch up with you again soon,
Speaker 1: i'm sure, Ambassador Patrick Duddy, their former US ambassador to Venezuela.