WEBVTT - Patrick Duddy Talks Venezuela 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Chevron lining up a small fleet of ships sailing to

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<v Speaker 2>Venezuela as the company emerges as the only exporter of

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<v Speaker 2>the country's oil following Maduro's aster. This as the White

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<v Speaker 2>House plans to meet with oil industry executives. Joining us

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<v Speaker 2>now and please to say we have Patrick Duddy. He

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<v Speaker 2>is a visiting senior lecturer at Duke University and the

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<v Speaker 2>former US Ambassador to Venezuela for both President Bush and

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<v Speaker 2>President Obama. Ambassador, fantastic to have you with us. I

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<v Speaker 2>want to back up a little bit and just talk

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<v Speaker 2>about what unfolded over the weekend. We know that over

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<v Speaker 2>the past several months, the US military has really ramped

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<v Speaker 2>up his presence in the region. But even with that

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<v Speaker 2>in mind, we're you surprised at all to see this

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<v Speaker 2>weekend raid and the ouster of Nicholas Maduro.

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<v Speaker 3>No I was not it had it was evident for

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<v Speaker 3>some time that the force which had been deployed to

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<v Speaker 3>the Southern Caribbean was larger than what might have been

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<v Speaker 3>necessary if the only mission had been to blow up

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<v Speaker 3>drug boats. Additionally, after the the forces in the Caribbean

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<v Speaker 3>struck that port facility the other day, a couple of

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<v Speaker 3>days before the apprehension of Nicholas Maduro and his wife.

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<v Speaker 3>It was my view that the that signaled to really

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<v Speaker 3>the entire region, and it should have signaled to the

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<v Speaker 3>to the Maduro regime that the President Trump was not joking.

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<v Speaker 3>This was not a bluff, and in striking the port

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<v Speaker 3>he had, he, that is to say, President to Trump

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<v Speaker 3>had made clear his willingness to go further.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, certainly, now with the benefit of hindsight, we can

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<v Speaker 2>say that this was not a bluff on the part

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<v Speaker 2>of President Trump. And I would love to hear your

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<v Speaker 2>thoughts on what the motivation is here. What is the

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<v Speaker 2>US trying to accomplish. Is this about pursuing a regime

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<v Speaker 2>change in Venezuela, Is this about drug trafficking? Or is

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<v Speaker 2>it as simple as oil? What do you make of it?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's a combination of almost all of

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<v Speaker 3>those factors. What I would suggest is that it is

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<v Speaker 3>important to understand the nature of the regime. The Trump

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<v Speaker 3>administration has said repeatedly this is not a legitimate government,

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<v Speaker 3>and that is actually accurate. The government, the Maduro regime

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<v Speaker 3>was not recognized as legitimate by most of the democratic

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<v Speaker 3>nations in the world. They walked away from the most

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<v Speaker 3>recent electoral exercise, which they lost overwhelmingly, and as their

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<v Speaker 3>legitimacy evaporated, the regime became increasingly increasingly authoritarian and repressive.

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<v Speaker 3>This resulted in, among other things, eight million refugees. Eight

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<v Speaker 3>million Venezuelan has fled their country. Yeah, an enormous outflow,

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<v Speaker 3>and not surprisingly, as their illicit economy tanked, illicit activity

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<v Speaker 3>spiked and that means drug trafficking.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I am curious, though, Ambassador, as to what the solution is,

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<v Speaker 1>because when we talk about Venezuela's problems, this is not

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<v Speaker 1>something recent when you were in advising presidents back in

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<v Speaker 1>the day. I think Chavez was on a second go

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<v Speaker 1>round as leader of this country. I can't remember time

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<v Speaker 1>in my lifetime, at least not as an adult, where

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen a viable, stable economic machine in Venezuela. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you have any hope or faith that it will be

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<v Speaker 1>different this time with whatever changes are afoot down the pipe.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I would say hope, but perhaps not faith. The

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<v Speaker 3>You know, when President Chammas was elected in nineteen ninety eight,

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<v Speaker 3>Venezuela was producing around three million barrels on the day.

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<v Speaker 3>Today it is barely and perhaps not even producing a

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<v Speaker 3>million barrels today. Between twenty thirteen and twenty twenty three,

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<v Speaker 3>the economy contracted more than seventy percent. Some argue as

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<v Speaker 3>much as seventy five percent. This has caused effectively chaos

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<v Speaker 3>on the ground. And I think what we're seeing with

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration's approach is a determination to revive what

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<v Speaker 3>has always been the heart and soul of the Venezuelan economy,

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<v Speaker 3>which is the oil sector. And that sector is dilapidated

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<v Speaker 3>and has been incompetently managed, and there has been an

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<v Speaker 3>enormous outflow of petroleum professionals. In fact, many of something

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<v Speaker 3>like eighteen thousand of them were fired by President Chamas

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<v Speaker 3>after a strike in I believe it was two thousand

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<v Speaker 3>and two, and then dismissed the virtually the entire workforce

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<v Speaker 3>in two thousand and three. So I think about the

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<v Speaker 3>Trump administration has decided is that they can If they

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<v Speaker 3>can build back the oil sector, it will not only

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<v Speaker 3>be good for Venezuela, it will be good for us,

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<v Speaker 3>so it will be good for the region. This is

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<v Speaker 3>going to require a measure of social stability in Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 3>And that's the challenge of the moment. After all, Maduro

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<v Speaker 3>his wife are gone, but the regime is still in Playee.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, that's what I'm curious about. I mean, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>why should we have faith that that stability will come

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<v Speaker 1>if the people that Trump himself, the Trump administration itself

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<v Speaker 1>is said we're comfortable with, are basically the people who

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<v Speaker 1>are working under Maduro. Do we have any sense that

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<v Speaker 1>their allegiances would somehow shift away from Maduro and to

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<v Speaker 1>US policy.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think their allegiances are going to shift, And

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<v Speaker 3>in particular, Dulcia Rodriguez sworn in I think yesterday as

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<v Speaker 3>interim president was a part of Maduro's inner circle. What

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<v Speaker 3>I think is going on is the Trump administration is

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<v Speaker 3>decided to work with some of those people who are

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<v Speaker 3>still in positions of authority to manage a transition. What

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<v Speaker 3>I believe is the case is that the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and

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<v Speaker 3>others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussin.

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<v Speaker 3>Central to that was the US went in and essentially

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<v Speaker 3>dismissed the entire political class as well as all of

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<v Speaker 3>the military, and what followed was chaos and something looked

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<v Speaker 3>awfully like sivil.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Patrick, we have to leave it there. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's a great point we should point out. Just about

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<v Speaker 1>an hour ago we had caught up with Richard hass

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<v Speaker 1>of course, who was very instrumental in the march into

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<v Speaker 1>Iraq and Afghanistan. We'll catch up with you again soon,

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<v Speaker 1>i'm sure, Ambassador Patrick Duddy, their former US ambassador to Venezuela.