1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:12,039 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 2: Chevron lining up a small fleet of ships sailing to 3 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 2: Venezuela as the company emerges as the only exporter of 4 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 2: the country's oil following Maduro's aster. This as the White 5 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: House plans to meet with oil industry executives. Joining us 6 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 2: now and please to say we have Patrick Duddy. He 7 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 2: is a visiting senior lecturer at Duke University and the 8 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 2: former US Ambassador to Venezuela for both President Bush and 9 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: President Obama. Ambassador, fantastic to have you with us. I 10 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: want to back up a little bit and just talk 11 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,240 Speaker 2: about what unfolded over the weekend. We know that over 12 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 2: the past several months, the US military has really ramped 13 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 2: up his presence in the region. But even with that 14 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: in mind, we're you surprised at all to see this 15 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 2: weekend raid and the ouster of Nicholas Maduro. 16 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 3: No I was not it had it was evident for 17 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 3: some time that the force which had been deployed to 18 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 3: the Southern Caribbean was larger than what might have been 19 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 3: necessary if the only mission had been to blow up 20 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: drug boats. Additionally, after the the forces in the Caribbean 21 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 3: struck that port facility the other day, a couple of 22 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,039 Speaker 3: days before the apprehension of Nicholas Maduro and his wife. 23 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 3: It was my view that the that signaled to really 24 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: the entire region, and it should have signaled to the 25 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 3: to the Maduro regime that the President Trump was not joking. 26 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 3: This was not a bluff, and in striking the port 27 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 3: he had, he, that is to say, President to Trump 28 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 3: had made clear his willingness to go further. 29 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 2: Yes, certainly, now with the benefit of hindsight, we can 30 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 2: say that this was not a bluff on the part 31 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 2: of President Trump. And I would love to hear your 32 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 2: thoughts on what the motivation is here. What is the 33 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 2: US trying to accomplish. Is this about pursuing a regime 34 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 2: change in Venezuela, Is this about drug trafficking? Or is 35 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:28,840 Speaker 2: it as simple as oil? What do you make of it? 36 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's a combination of almost all of 37 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 3: those factors. What I would suggest is that it is 38 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 3: important to understand the nature of the regime. The Trump 39 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 3: administration has said repeatedly this is not a legitimate government, 40 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 3: and that is actually accurate. The government, the Maduro regime 41 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 3: was not recognized as legitimate by most of the democratic 42 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 3: nations in the world. They walked away from the most 43 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 3: recent electoral exercise, which they lost overwhelmingly, and as their 44 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:18,519 Speaker 3: legitimacy evaporated, the regime became increasingly increasingly authoritarian and repressive. 45 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 3: This resulted in, among other things, eight million refugees. Eight 46 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 3: million Venezuelan has fled their country. Yeah, an enormous outflow, 47 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 3: and not surprisingly, as their illicit economy tanked, illicit activity 48 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 3: spiked and that means drug trafficking. 49 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. 50 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: I am curious, though, Ambassador, as to what the solution is, 51 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: because when we talk about Venezuela's problems, this is not 52 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: something recent when you were in advising presidents back in 53 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: the day. I think Chavez was on a second go 54 00:03:56,640 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 1: round as leader of this country. I can't remember time 55 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 1: in my lifetime, at least not as an adult, where 56 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: we've seen a viable, stable economic machine in Venezuela. Do 57 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: you have any hope or faith that it will be 58 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: different this time with whatever changes are afoot down the pipe. 59 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 3: Well, I would say hope, but perhaps not faith. The 60 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 3: You know, when President Chammas was elected in nineteen ninety eight, 61 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 3: Venezuela was producing around three million barrels on the day. 62 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 3: Today it is barely and perhaps not even producing a 63 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 3: million barrels today. Between twenty thirteen and twenty twenty three, 64 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 3: the economy contracted more than seventy percent. Some argue as 65 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 3: much as seventy five percent. This has caused effectively chaos 66 00:04:54,880 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 3: on the ground. And I think what we're seeing with 67 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 3: the Trump administration's approach is a determination to revive what 68 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 3: has always been the heart and soul of the Venezuelan economy, 69 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 3: which is the oil sector. And that sector is dilapidated 70 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 3: and has been incompetently managed, and there has been an 71 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 3: enormous outflow of petroleum professionals. In fact, many of something 72 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 3: like eighteen thousand of them were fired by President Chamas 73 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 3: after a strike in I believe it was two thousand 74 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 3: and two, and then dismissed the virtually the entire workforce 75 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 3: in two thousand and three. So I think about the 76 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 3: Trump administration has decided is that they can If they 77 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 3: can build back the oil sector, it will not only 78 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 3: be good for Venezuela, it will be good for us, 79 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 3: so it will be good for the region. This is 80 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 3: going to require a measure of social stability in Venezuela. 81 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 3: And that's the challenge of the moment. After all, Maduro 82 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 3: his wife are gone, but the regime is still in Playee. 83 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: Well, that's what I'm curious about. I mean, I mean, 84 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: why should we have faith that that stability will come 85 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,719 Speaker 1: if the people that Trump himself, the Trump administration itself 86 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: is said we're comfortable with, are basically the people who 87 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 1: are working under Maduro. Do we have any sense that 88 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: their allegiances would somehow shift away from Maduro and to 89 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: US policy. 90 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 3: I don't think their allegiances are going to shift, And 91 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 3: in particular, Dulcia Rodriguez sworn in I think yesterday as 92 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 3: interim president was a part of Maduro's inner circle. What 93 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 3: I think is going on is the Trump administration is 94 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 3: decided to work with some of those people who are 95 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 3: still in positions of authority to manage a transition. What 96 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 3: I believe is the case is that the Trump administration 97 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 3: wishes to avoid the kind of mistakes that we and 98 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 3: others committed in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussin. 99 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 3: Central to that was the US went in and essentially 100 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 3: dismissed the entire political class as well as all of 101 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 3: the military, and what followed was chaos and something looked 102 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 3: awfully like sivil. 103 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: All right, Patrick, we have to leave it there. And 104 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: that's a great point we should point out. Just about 105 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: an hour ago we had caught up with Richard hass 106 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: of course, who was very instrumental in the march into 107 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: Iraq and Afghanistan. We'll catch up with you again soon, 108 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: i'm sure, Ambassador Patrick Duddy, their former US ambassador to Venezuela.