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Speaker 1: Let's get to our guests. Sonya Lee joins us. Sonya

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Speaker 1: is head of retail research at m IB Securities Hong Kong.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna look at what's happening in the equity market,

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Speaker 1: not only on the main land, but in Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: as well. Sonya, thank you for being with us. A

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Speaker 1: couple of threads here and I want to get your opinion.

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Speaker 1: How much of this euphoria that we're seeing in Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong is tied to the reopening and the lifting of

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Speaker 1: the COVID restrictions on the main land, and how much

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Speaker 1: has to do with this apparent shifting sentiment when it

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Speaker 1: comes to regulators in Beijing. We were talking yesterday about

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Speaker 1: and group seeming to be given the go ahead to

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Speaker 1: raise wanted to have billion for the consumer unit. And

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Speaker 1: I think the market is sent seeing a signal in

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Speaker 1: this that maybe pressure from regulators is relaxing just a bit.

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Speaker 1: What do you think? I think? Um Oh, actually fat

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Speaker 1: a quite positive tours to the Hong Kong and also

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Speaker 1: trying to pop at trying to equity market. As you

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Speaker 1: also mentioned, as you have already mentioned that Nazia actually

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Speaker 1: are we uh the hans In does actually drop a

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Speaker 1: lot due to the several reasons, for example the FAFAM

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Speaker 1: Wray heights and also the Covie ar restruction in China.

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Speaker 1: But actually this year, at the beginning of this year,

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Speaker 1: all the factor seems to be UM changes, especially for

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Speaker 1: the COVID situation in China. We saw that UM the

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Speaker 1: China will ease off for the COVID UM measure UM

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Speaker 1: this Sunday UM, so that actually market UM begin have

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Speaker 1: a hope that the China reopening setter that can UM

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Speaker 1: make many setter that we bound for example for the

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Speaker 1: consumer UM property settor. We'll also we gain for some

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Speaker 1: of ourselves market sales, voding, etcetera. And also we mentioned

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Speaker 1: that are for them for the regulatory tours to the

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Speaker 1: tech company. It seems that of these two days we've

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Speaker 1: got some market noise that UM the the the regulatory

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Speaker 1: actually the tone will shift as well UM, so that

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Speaker 1: UM all the headwing that happened last year actually changes

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Speaker 1: UM at the beginning of this year. So that we

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Speaker 1: can see that there's a wide valley in the Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong or stock market. And we believe that this momentum

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Speaker 1: will continue because for the consensus. Actually we didn't we

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Speaker 1: rise so quickly or to response to these changes. So

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Speaker 1: we hope that the momentum will continues, especially for the

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Speaker 1: first cut this year. In terms of the property sector,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're still waiting on the China evergrand restructuring plan.

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Speaker 1: Yet it is a very big nupsector, probably an attractive

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Speaker 1: entry point here, but there's still some very compelling reasons

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Speaker 1: to be cautious, aren't there m hm, Yes, of course,

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Speaker 1: But we do believe that actually for the regulatory the

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Speaker 1: point of view actually changes. So as we can see

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Speaker 1: that our last year they have already implements for the

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Speaker 1: sixteen measures UM, not only for the financing equity financing,

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Speaker 1: bond insurance and for asking for the bank to bold

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Speaker 1: money for UM for the developers, so that we can

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Speaker 1: see that on one hand, UM the financing issue actually

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Speaker 1: is is and on the other hand we also saw

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Speaker 1: that as for SULF measure to stimulate for the seals volume,

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Speaker 1: for example, they will UM catch their second home, pat trays,

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Speaker 1: a down payment, et cetera. UM, So that we we

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Speaker 1: have to patient and we have to take sometimes to

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Speaker 1: see whether the cells volume can be UM. I can't

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Speaker 1: say it we're bond, but at least stabilize. We may

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Speaker 1: not can see that in the thea term, but we

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Speaker 1: hope to see a stabilization in property market, take for example,

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Speaker 1: at the end of first queue, and so that I

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Speaker 1: can't say that the evergrand issue is not a problem,

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Speaker 1: but um the market focus changes because we do see

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Speaker 1: a hope that there will be our normalization in the

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Speaker 1: economic to protus in China, and also there are we

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Speaker 1: have to see whether the buyers can put some positions

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Speaker 1: on the property market. We were talking with one of

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Speaker 1: our opinion columnists at the last hour, and she's optimistic

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Speaker 1: now that maybe we're beginning to see the early signs

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Speaker 1: of herd immunity in China. I know it's been a

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Speaker 1: tragic story. As the country has moved away from COVID zero,

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Speaker 1: hospitalizations and deaths have spiked. It's it's a very sad story,

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Speaker 1: and it's coming at a time when we're looking forward

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Speaker 1: to the lunar New Year holiday, and I'm wondering, what's

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Speaker 1: your view now, how can we expect the consumers on

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Speaker 1: the mainland to perform, whether we're talking about travel, whether

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Speaker 1: we're talking about retail, by the buying, do you have

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Speaker 1: a sense of how well the Chinese consumer will hold

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Speaker 1: up during the Lunar New Year festivities. UM. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it will happen that soon because although we have

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Speaker 1: mentioned about the markets quite positive if the obtrust momentum

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Speaker 1: can continue. But I think we have to take times

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Speaker 1: for the rebound of the China consumer sector as UH.

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Speaker 1: But it will happen, I think maybe in the Golden

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Speaker 1: Week in May or in October. And because we still

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Speaker 1: have to see whether there will a new wave of

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Speaker 1: the covie UH happened our outbreak in China after the

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Speaker 1: East for the stereo COVID policy, and we also see

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Speaker 1: that for some country actually UM they have set some

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Speaker 1: traffic restruction tours to the trying to travel in bound.

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Speaker 1: So that we have to wait and see in the

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Speaker 1: upcoming field week see whether there will be a potential

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Speaker 1: outbreak in the COVID cases in China and also globally. UM.

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Speaker 1: For the health I mean for the consumer, we are

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Speaker 1: quite positive, but not in the near term, but in

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Speaker 1: the second half this year. And what the UM supportive

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Speaker 1: for the consumer sector is that are we see that

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Speaker 1: actually for the China consumer actually they are quite UM.

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Speaker 1: They save more for the last year, so we can

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Speaker 1: see that they are not willing to save due to

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Speaker 1: the COVIX situation, the social distancing UM. So they have

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Speaker 1: to wait and see until let's say the equity market

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Speaker 1: actually stabilized, the property market stabilized, they are willing to

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Speaker 1: spend more. So I think it takes times are for

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Speaker 1: the consumer confidence will be back, but I think the

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Speaker 1: time will be much longer. Take for example, in the

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Speaker 1: second half in terms of lunar year, relaxation of COVID

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Speaker 1: restrictions and then the COVID zero, we've seen some pretty

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Speaker 1: good games for Macau gaming stocks. Is there's a one

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Speaker 1: way bit at the moment? Uh. Yes, we do think

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Speaker 1: that for the Macau gaming will be benefits UM. This

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Speaker 1: because we learned what gaming well for the we bound

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Speaker 1: in Singapore, Malaysian and also Las Vegas. What we see

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Speaker 1: that are for after the Singapore lift for the restriction

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Speaker 1: UM travel restriction UH that we setting arrival actually increased

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Speaker 1: a lot UH from in April last year. UM, So

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Speaker 1: that we believe that for the Macau will perform similar

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Speaker 1: patterns after the China is for the COVID UM situations.

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Speaker 1: And but I have also mentioned that we have to

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Speaker 1: take times We do not think that there will be

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Speaker 1: a huge inbound are doing for the Chinese New Year's

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Speaker 1: but we do believe that there will be a certificant

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Speaker 1: improvement in the Golden Week in May. So, being an investor,

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Speaker 1: I think we have to see upcoming UH. Were sitting

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Speaker 1: arrival to Macau UH in the upcoming of few months.

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Speaker 1: So and you're nice to have you with us. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for sharing your perspective on the Chinese

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Speaker 1: equities space. On Yae is head of retail research at

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Speaker 1: m I B Securities, Hong Kong,