1
00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:09,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Iran Supreme Leader Iotola

2
00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,119
Speaker 1: Ali Hamanei has been killed in today's joint attack by

3
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:14,280
Speaker 1: the US and Israel.

4
00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:18,400
Speaker 2: Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating

5
00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:22,240
Speaker 2: eminent threats from the Iranian regime.

6
00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,880
Speaker 3: What the United States is doing is an act of aggression.

7
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:28,720
Speaker 3: What we are doing is the act of self defense.

8
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,200
Speaker 4: Targets in Iran, Israel, and elsewhere in the Middle East

9
00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,320
Speaker 4: are under attack in an unprecedented escalation in the conflict

10
00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:36,680
Speaker 4: between the US and Iran.

11
00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:41,760
Speaker 2: Would be wonderful if the negotiates really in good conscious,

12
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:46,040
Speaker 2: good faith, in conscience, but they are not getting there.

13
00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,400
Speaker 4: The combat operations come after weeks of negotiations between the

14
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,520
Speaker 4: US and Iran over what remains of its nuclear program.

15
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 4: This was not an imminent nuclear threat.

16
00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,960
Speaker 3: This is a military action over regime change, not over

17
00:00:57,960 --> 00:00:58,960
Speaker 3: the nuclear program.

18
00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,880
Speaker 4: Iranian state TV has reported that at least two hundred

19
00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,840
Speaker 4: people were killed in the strikes. The country responded with

20
00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 4: missile attacks on Israel and strikes aimed at US assets

21
00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,959
Speaker 4: in the region, where at least three US service members

22
00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,120
Speaker 4: have been killed. Aron says it sees no red lines

23
00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:20,720
Speaker 4: as it continues to respond with counter strikes. I'm David Gera,

24
00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,199
Speaker 4: and this is the big take from Bloomberg News Today.

25
00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,080
Speaker 4: On the show, Bloomberg'sjeff Mason and Jumani Berseacci joined me

26
00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,679
Speaker 4: to discuss what we know about the timing and goals

27
00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,520
Speaker 4: of this weekend strikes and the risks of a widening

28
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:39,319
Speaker 4: regional conflict. Bloomberg White House correspondent Jeff Mason and Jumna

29
00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,600
Speaker 4: Birssecci in Dubai have been here with me all weekend

30
00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,720
Speaker 4: long at Bloomberg, along with correspondents across the globe following

31
00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,200
Speaker 4: this story. Jeff, we just now heard the tape from

32
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,800
Speaker 4: President Trump announcing this operation. He did it in a

33
00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,960
Speaker 4: post on truth social which is an unprecedented move by

34
00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,080
Speaker 4: a sitting US president. What has the President said, Jeff,

35
00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:56,840
Speaker 4: about why they.

36
00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:58,720
Speaker 2: Did this now, why they undertook this at this moment, Well,

37
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,280
Speaker 2: the President is pitching the operation is having been in

38
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,440
Speaker 2: response to an imminent threat, and that is something that

39
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,680
Speaker 2: no doubt people are going to question and look into.

40
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 1: But that is the rationale that he used. His people. Also,

41
00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:17,440
Speaker 1: his top advisors told him that the negotiations that were

42
00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,600
Speaker 1: going on in Geneva with Iran about its nuclear program

43
00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 1: essentially came to a point where the United States concluded

44
00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:30,120
Speaker 1: that Iran was not interested in talking about its blistic

45
00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:34,160
Speaker 1: missile program and was still interested in pursuing a nuclear weapon.

46
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,920
Speaker 4: Jeff, what does the US want? Is that clear? Are

47
00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,520
Speaker 4: they using a playbook that they deployed in Venezuela just

48
00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:40,400
Speaker 4: a couple months ago.

49
00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,400
Speaker 1: Well, it seems very clear that regime changes something that

50
00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:47,000
Speaker 1: they wanted, because the President very directly referred to that

51
00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,720
Speaker 1: in his statement when he encouraged people in Iran essentially

52
00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,359
Speaker 1: to rise up and take this opportunity to take over

53
00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,360
Speaker 1: their government. But they haven't. They been The United States

54
00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,760
Speaker 1: in this case have not laid out how they expect

55
00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:03,280
Speaker 1: that to happen. And of course there's some comparisons to

56
00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 1: the Iraq War and this operation, but where those comparisons

57
00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:09,560
Speaker 1: don't continue, at least so far as there are not

58
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,160
Speaker 1: US ground troops in Iran, and so the President may

59
00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:16,720
Speaker 1: have less ability to influence that despite the fact that

60
00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:17,919
Speaker 1: strikes are continuing.

61
00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,880
Speaker 4: Jamana, You're witnessing the escalation of this firsthand. You're based

62
00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,200
Speaker 4: in Dubai, and I'm curious what things look like there.

63
00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,240
Speaker 4: In the wake of these strikes that we've seen, Well, what.

64
00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,840
Speaker 3: You need to understand is that a substantial volley of

65
00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,760
Speaker 3: missiles and drones have been directed at all of these

66
00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,160
Speaker 3: Gulf states. And here I'm talking about the UAE behind

67
00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:41,120
Speaker 3: in Kutar, Kuwait, even Oman who were obviously playing a

68
00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:45,160
Speaker 3: key mediation role in those Geneva discussions. So that was

69
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:49,680
Speaker 3: also quite a surprising development. And while most of the

70
00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,480
Speaker 3: missiles and drones have been intercepted, there are bits of

71
00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,680
Speaker 3: debris that actually did cause a significant amount structure of

72
00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:02,280
Speaker 3: infrastructure damage. These are financial centers in the Middle East

73
00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 3: that have prided themselves on political stability and geoeconomic stability

74
00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,800
Speaker 3: in the context of a broader region that tends to

75
00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:14,160
Speaker 3: be quite hot and cold, i would say. And so

76
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:19,719
Speaker 3: the reaction has been pretty and notable in that it

77
00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,080
Speaker 3: seems as though many of these Gulf states are losing

78
00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,760
Speaker 3: their patients with Iran. So we just had some comments

79
00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,800
Speaker 3: from a key advisor to the UAE President and Viz

80
00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:33,000
Speaker 3: warning Iran to return to their senses and to deal

81
00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:38,320
Speaker 3: with their neighbors in a respectful fashion because otherwise, and

82
00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,880
Speaker 3: this is a quote, it confirms the narrative that Iran

83
00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,200
Speaker 3: is the biggest source of danger in the region. At

84
00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,480
Speaker 3: the same time, you know, Iran has stopped one step

85
00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:52,039
Speaker 3: short of going all the way of directly targeting you know,

86
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,039
Speaker 3: residential buildings or civilian infrastructure or oil infrastructure. But you know,

87
00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,360
Speaker 3: who's to say that this isn't going to escalate further.

88
00:04:58,400 --> 00:04:59,800
Speaker 4: Jeff, I want to pull back a bit. And there

89
00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:02,800
Speaker 4: was this meeting yesterday of the UN Security Council which

90
00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:04,800
Speaker 4: was called for by the Iranians, and Mike Waltz, the

91
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,080
Speaker 4: US representative at the UN, was there making the case,

92
00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,719
Speaker 4: the US case for doing this. We've seen responses from

93
00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,560
Speaker 4: other world leaders. European allies are holding an emergency meeting tomorrow.

94
00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,120
Speaker 4: I was just talking with Senator Mark Warner of Virginia,

95
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:18,920
Speaker 4: who sits on the Intelligence Committee. He talked about the

96
00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:23,120
Speaker 4: prospects of this being really a US Israeli mission here

97
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,680
Speaker 4: not enjoying wide support of allies. How do you think

98
00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,720
Speaker 4: about the way that the international community has responded to

99
00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:30,479
Speaker 4: what's happened here?

100
00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,840
Speaker 1: Well, I think number one, that it's not something that

101
00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,440
Speaker 1: President Trump is going to be too concerned about, and

102
00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:39,719
Speaker 1: that's in large part because he during this second term

103
00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,880
Speaker 1: and to some extent during his first term as well,

104
00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:46,840
Speaker 1: has upended the international order with his own will and

105
00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:52,279
Speaker 1: with his actions, be it from on the economy, using tariffs,

106
00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:56,440
Speaker 1: or these strikes now in Iran and what was done

107
00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,320
Speaker 1: in Venezuela. That said, you know, the international community and

108
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,240
Speaker 1: other countries and allies or enemies for that matter of

109
00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:06,280
Speaker 1: the United States have a right to voice their opinion,

110
00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,280
Speaker 1: and the United Nations is a place to do that.

111
00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,360
Speaker 1: Whether or not that actually has an impact, though I

112
00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:13,400
Speaker 1: will see.

113
00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,520
Speaker 4: After the break, the risk to the Strait of Hormuz

114
00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,880
Speaker 4: and to the oil market, and with the US military

115
00:06:18,880 --> 00:06:29,560
Speaker 4: build up, where this could go from here? She want it.

116
00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,520
Speaker 4: In the statements that we got from the US President,

117
00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,839
Speaker 4: from President Trump, from the Israeli Prime Minister of Benjamin

118
00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,640
Speaker 4: at Yahoo, there was this entreaty to Iranians to overthrow

119
00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,799
Speaker 4: their government, to put down their weapons, and to seek

120
00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,720
Speaker 4: a change of government in Iran. What risks does that introduce?

121
00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,600
Speaker 4: The call for that happening in the wake of an

122
00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,040
Speaker 4: attack that was undertaken from the air, not on the ground.

123
00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 3: Well, I have to think also that one of the

124
00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,719
Speaker 3: reasons that Iran became such a focal point to the

125
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:59,080
Speaker 3: Trump administration was because of those demonstrations at the beginning

126
00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:00,760
Speaker 3: of the year. That was the as at least in

127
00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:06,160
Speaker 3: twenty twenty six, obviously with the background of Iran's multi

128
00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:10,240
Speaker 3: decade build up of nuclear capabilities. But if you recall

129
00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,960
Speaker 3: back in January, president Trump posted that help is going

130
00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,600
Speaker 3: to be on the way for the protesters and the

131
00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:17,920
Speaker 3: demonstrators who were taking to the streets, and of course

132
00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,840
Speaker 3: we know that they were brutally put down by the

133
00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 3: Iranian regime, and overtime those demonstrations started to peter out,

134
00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 3: and so here we are. You fast forward about a

135
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:31,600
Speaker 3: month later, and the US have now got involved militarily

136
00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 3: alongside Israel. And it was pretty clear from that original

137
00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,880
Speaker 3: video post that President Trump put up that his expectation

138
00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,960
Speaker 3: is that the Iranian people should also use this as

139
00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:45,320
Speaker 3: an opportunity to rise up. But of course that comes

140
00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,679
Speaker 3: with many challenges. The major risk is that this could

141
00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,080
Speaker 3: strengthen the hardliner's hands. They could go down even more

142
00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:55,280
Speaker 3: aggressively on the demonstrators, on the protesters. That could also

143
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:59,760
Speaker 3: be this push to rally around the flag as well

144
00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:04,000
Speaker 3: and unite their Iranian people about against these external threats

145
00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:06,800
Speaker 3: that are coming through. But then also there's a real

146
00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:11,200
Speaker 3: risk of broader retaliation. And right now, I think the

147
00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:15,320
Speaker 3: Iranian regime sees this as a very fight for their existence,

148
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:19,400
Speaker 3: and so they're not going to hold back at retaliating,

149
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:23,320
Speaker 3: either against their own people or against neighboring countries, which

150
00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,239
Speaker 3: is what we've seen in the last forty eight hours.

151
00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:28,200
Speaker 4: Jeff, what do we know of what the president is

152
00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,360
Speaker 4: watching for here? As you said, his rationale here has

153
00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:35,800
Speaker 4: been changing, somewhat ambiguous. What is he looking for in

154
00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:36,520
Speaker 4: the days to come?

155
00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,400
Speaker 1: Well, certainly one of their primary objectives is to prevent

156
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 1: Iran from being able to develop a nuclear weapon, and

157
00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,920
Speaker 1: that's another thing that he talked about in his video statement.

158
00:08:47,080 --> 00:08:51,079
Speaker 1: So the military campaign will no doubt be focused on

159
00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:56,479
Speaker 1: that and on the resources and infrastructure that is available

160
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,280
Speaker 1: in Iran that could potentially be used for that and

161
00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 1: weapons programs, et cetera. Obviously, we know that they targeted

162
00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:10,160
Speaker 1: Iranian leadership, and no doubt he'll be watching how around response.

163
00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,239
Speaker 1: We know, as we were just discussing that the retaliation

164
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:17,120
Speaker 1: is happening. Does that change any military calculations for President

165
00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,080
Speaker 1: Trump the United States? How do they respond to that?

166
00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,160
Speaker 1: I imagine they're watching all of those things, Jana.

167
00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,800
Speaker 4: Let me ask you about the oil market. What this

168
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,160
Speaker 4: means for that the Strait of Hormu is a key

169
00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 4: part of this conflict, at choke point where nearly twenty

170
00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,360
Speaker 4: percent of the world's oil is transported. What is this

171
00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,120
Speaker 4: likely to mean for oil prices in the days to come.

172
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 3: Well, even at the run up to this, oil prices

173
00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,400
Speaker 3: had been lifted by a certain amount of what analysts

174
00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,640
Speaker 3: call geopolitical premium because there was an expectation that a

175
00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:45,480
Speaker 3: strike could happen at some point, so we were already

176
00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,880
Speaker 3: up almost around twenty percent. We'll see where the market

177
00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,800
Speaker 3: opens up. But to your point, the Strait of Hormas

178
00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:57,120
Speaker 3: is a key passageway for seaborne oil and as of now,

179
00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,760
Speaker 3: if you look at the traffic over the weekends, according

180
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 3: to Kepler they have their data analytics, it suggests that

181
00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:08,320
Speaker 3: the flow of tankers is down around by seventy five

182
00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:11,800
Speaker 3: to eighty percent. So essentially what's happening is tankers and

183
00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,200
Speaker 3: vessels are avoiding going through the straits, so a significant

184
00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,480
Speaker 3: drop in overall activity. At the same time, you know,

185
00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,400
Speaker 3: one thing that you need to think about is the

186
00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,760
Speaker 3: oil that passes through that Strait. Most of it ends

187
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,000
Speaker 3: up going to Asia. So this is oil that's coming

188
00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,360
Speaker 3: through from the Gulf countries, from Iran, but also other

189
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,800
Speaker 3: countries as well, Saudi Arabia, other GCC nations. The main

190
00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,439
Speaker 3: buyer there is going to be China, and so if

191
00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,960
Speaker 3: that oil isn't able to pass through the Straits, then

192
00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:42,600
Speaker 3: obviously the oil has to come from somewhere else.

193
00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,520
Speaker 4: Jaman, I understand that OPEC plus that group of nations

194
00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,079
Speaker 4: that produce oil weighing an increase in production as a

195
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:48,520
Speaker 4: result of this.

196
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:52,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true. So they actually had their regular meeting

197
00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:54,679
Speaker 3: today and on the back of that they announced an

198
00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:57,800
Speaker 3: increase of production of more than two hundred thousand barrels

199
00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,560
Speaker 3: a day. That was probably not going to happen in

200
00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,880
Speaker 3: the absence of the weekend's events, because the last couple

201
00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,920
Speaker 3: of months they've just paused with their production output. In

202
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:09,920
Speaker 3: Q four of last year, they were averaging around one

203
00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,160
Speaker 3: hundred and thirty seven thousand extra barrels a day put

204
00:11:13,200 --> 00:11:15,960
Speaker 3: back to the market, But in light of recent events

205
00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,080
Speaker 3: and in light of perhaps a tightening of the market,

206
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,240
Speaker 3: they've opted to go with this extra supply increase, which

207
00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,440
Speaker 3: also signals that at least a couple of countries within

208
00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 3: OPI plus Saudi Arabia and UAE, who've been pushing anyway

209
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:37,320
Speaker 3: to increase OPEK share the global share of oil, are

210
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:39,679
Speaker 3: using this as an opportunity to get more of their

211
00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:40,760
Speaker 3: oil back on the market.

212
00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:42,320
Speaker 4: Jeff, I want to end with what might be an

213
00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,760
Speaker 4: off ramp for the president here. In the run up

214
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:46,440
Speaker 4: to this, there was a school of thought that because

215
00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:48,680
Speaker 4: this might push up oil prices, maybe the president would

216
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,800
Speaker 4: avoid doing this. That he is under pressure to talk

217
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,000
Speaker 4: more about cost of living in affordability, and if gas

218
00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,360
Speaker 4: prices were to rise, that would be a challenge to

219
00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,240
Speaker 4: him and his party going into the midterm elections. How

220
00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:01,960
Speaker 4: is he thinking about that and how much of a

221
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,959
Speaker 4: forcing mechanism do you think that's likely to be here

222
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,559
Speaker 4: as he tries to game out a path forward.

223
00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,120
Speaker 1: Well, number one, he can't go back, so he's done

224
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,320
Speaker 1: it now and there's no way of erasing that. And

225
00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,360
Speaker 1: the impact that it's going to have on the economy

226
00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 1: and on oil prices is still TBD. I think that'll

227
00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 1: be very interesting to watch. Certainly, you're right to say

228
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:21,199
Speaker 1: that the political risk here for him in terms of

229
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,400
Speaker 1: the midterms is it potentially robs him of one of

230
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:26,840
Speaker 1: his favorite talking points, which is that he likes to

231
00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:30,600
Speaker 1: take credit for low gasoline prices, and gasoline prices are

232
00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:34,839
Speaker 1: absolutely something that voters watch because it's a part of

233
00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 1: their daily lives. And when consumers see their prices going up,

234
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,360
Speaker 1: be it at the grocery stores or be it at

235
00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,400
Speaker 1: the pump, they remember that at the polls. And is

236
00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,360
Speaker 1: that an off ramp? I mean, does it impact whether

237
00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,920
Speaker 1: these strikes continue? I think the answer to that is

238
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:53,199
Speaker 1: no at this point, because the United States is all

239
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:53,680
Speaker 1: in and.

240
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:56,280
Speaker 4: Jaman, what are the expectations in the region for where

241
00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:57,080
Speaker 4: this goes from here?

242
00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,560
Speaker 3: I think it's very difficult for anyone to have really

243
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 3: good foresight on how this is going to play out.

244
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,080
Speaker 3: The hope I think from the US side is that

245
00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,080
Speaker 3: the ongoing attacks will either lead the Iranian regime to

246
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:16,360
Speaker 3: fully collapse on itself or eventually for it to capitulate.

247
00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 3: And the capitulation will only come if they have been

248
00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 3: decapitated at a senior level in terms of top echelon

249
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 3: being taken out and a military level in terms of

250
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:32,360
Speaker 3: their actual ballistic missile arsenal their launchers being so severely

251
00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,400
Speaker 3: damaged that they can't continue lobbying all of these missiles

252
00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,520
Speaker 3: and drones into the region, into the GCT countries and

253
00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:43,840
Speaker 3: into Israel. The Prime Minister is really Prime Minister Natanyahu

254
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,880
Speaker 3: was just speaking as well and saying that they also

255
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 3: expect to continue with these attacks over the next coming days.

256
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,119
Speaker 3: And if anything, it will say from the Gulf State's perspective,

257
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,600
Speaker 3: the fact that they've been drawn into this, the fact

258
00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,600
Speaker 3: that it has been so destabilizing for their own economies,

259
00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,960
Speaker 3: has probably hardened their own resolve, and for a while

260
00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:06,560
Speaker 3: they had been seeking to have not necessarily the strongest

261
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:11,319
Speaker 3: relations with Iran, but at least have operational diplomatic relationships.

262
00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,880
Speaker 3: This could be a huge game changer for the region.

263
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,480
Speaker 3: And one just last development that I would bring up

264
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,760
Speaker 3: as well is a phone call took place yesterday on

265
00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 3: Saturday between the Saudi Crown Friends Mohammad bin Seman and

266
00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,000
Speaker 3: the UAE President MBZ. The two leaders have not spoken

267
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:31,040
Speaker 3: in a couple of months over disagreements around the forward

268
00:14:31,040 --> 00:14:34,760
Speaker 3: path of Yemen. What this clearly shows you is that

269
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,680
Speaker 3: the whole region and the Gulf States are uniting at

270
00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,600
Speaker 3: this point in time to bring down the temperature to

271
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,280
Speaker 3: de escalate and to ensure that things really don't get

272
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:45,920
Speaker 3: out of control.

273
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:50,840
Speaker 4: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gurra.

274
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,080
Speaker 4: This is a developing story. We're live blogging at Bloomberg

275
00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:56,440
Speaker 4: dot com with the latest from across the globe. We

276
00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 4: have a special Bloomberg subscription offer for podcast listeners at

277
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,920
Speaker 4: Bloomberg dot dot com Slash Podcast Offer. Thanks for listening.

278
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:03,960
Speaker 4: We'll be back tomorrow.