1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,159 Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of the Buck Sexton Show. 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: This week we have an expert in military and national 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: security analysis. Bill Roggio is with us. He's part of 4 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: the Long War Journal. He's at the foundation of Defense 5 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: and democracies. He knows this stuff backwards and forwards. Bill, 6 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: thanks for being with us, Buck, always a pleasure. Thanks 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: for having me on. All right, So Ukraine, we're deep 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: diving into Ukraine. Give everybody an assessment of where we are. 9 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: It's February twenty twenty three. We are one year into 10 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: this war. What is the state of play right now? Yeah, 11 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: I think this war has not gone the way that 12 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 1: just about everyone thought at one point, you know, everyone 13 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: was concerned if the Russians were going to eat you, 14 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: overrun the capitol and outs the Ukrainian government. And then 15 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: after this fall there was a lot of jubilation as 16 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians ejected the Russians from northern Ukraine as well 17 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: as in the Kerson region in the south. The things 18 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: seem to have stabilized. Now Russia has called up a 19 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 1: mobilization of forces. There's estimated some isol around three hundred 20 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: and twenty thousand Russian troops inside Ukraine now and another 21 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: about one hundred, two hundred and fifty thousand in reserve, 22 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 1: So this is a This is more than twice of 23 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: the forces that the Russians began this work with. So 24 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: we're sort of at a stalemate at this point, which 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: was expected because of the winter months. But the Russians 26 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: do appear to be planning for an offensive, but it's 27 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 1: hard to tell where they're actually doing this right now. 28 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 1: We're most of the fighting, most of the reporting of 29 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: the fighting is in the Donbas region in the east. 30 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: The Russians have been massing forces there and they are 31 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: they are taking some ground. It's slow, it's a slog, 32 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: but if they can take the city of Bakmud, it's 33 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: a key city along the crossroads with two major highways, 34 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: it's a key transportation a logistical hub for the Russians. 35 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: But whether they can they could capitalize on those games, 36 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 1: it's really difficult to tell, you know. I see things 37 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: far across the spectrum in the analysis of this, and 38 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,519 Speaker 1: given the way this war has gone, you know, it's 39 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: anyone's guess what the next phase is. But I do 40 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: think we're going to see increased fighting in the south, 41 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,639 Speaker 1: like the I'm sorry in the east, in the Donbos region, 42 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 1: and this is going to foil the Ukrainians plans and 43 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: to try to eject Russia from the caomea um. Look, 44 00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians want the Russians completely out of Ukraine, and 45 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: I don't think that's possible given the commitment that the 46 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: Russians are now making to this. And one other thing 47 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: I'd like to mention here too is the sanctions these 48 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: were hurled at the beginning, is going to break the 49 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: back of the Russians within weeks, if not months. And 50 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 1: I think what we're seeing here in this war is 51 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: that the Russians have really gotten around this um. Their 52 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: GDP I believes down somewhere only around three percent this year. 53 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: It hasn't broken the back of their military an industrial complex. 54 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: It hasn't caused the Russians to end this war and 55 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,960 Speaker 1: withdraw from Ukraine. So we have to really think hard about, 56 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: you know, the efficacy of economic sanctions and the soft power, 57 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: so to speak. Where do the Russians, from a pure 58 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 1: order of battlefield assessment of these opposing forces standpoint right 59 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 1: or order of battle? Where do the Russians have the 60 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: advantage and where are the Ukrainians able to exploit Russian weaknesses. Yeah, 61 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: the Russians have the qualitative and advantage, meaning they have 62 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: the numbers. Russia is three to four times larger than 63 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: the Ukraine, so they have far more recruits to gather 64 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: or you know, they can they can conscript and recruit 65 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: from far more of the population than Ukraine can. They 66 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: have the legacy Soviet military terry, hardware and munitions that 67 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: they can draw on and they manufacture. So these are 68 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: the big advantages of the Russians. The Ukrainians have their advantages. 69 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: They're fighting for their homeland, right, They're fighting on their 70 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: own soil, so they're far more motivated. But also the 71 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: support they are receiving from the West, and that has 72 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: made a difference, and they are getting more advanced weaponry. 73 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,720 Speaker 1: But you know, I think my concern with the with 74 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians advantage at some point is when does certain 75 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 1: Western countries tire of spending billions or tens of billions 76 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 1: or even hundreds of billions of dollars in supporting what 77 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: is looking to be another long and what a lot 78 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,040 Speaker 1: of people when they describe the War on Terror becoming 79 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 1: an endless war, you know, this is a narrative that 80 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: was put out on both the far right and the 81 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: far left and in between during the War on Terror, 82 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: and it led to the withdrawal from Afghanistan. It exhausted 83 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: the American public. You know, I don't think we're there. 84 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: I don't think we're close to that point. But if 85 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 1: Russia can keep it as stalemate or make slow advances, 86 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: this is where and the West hires if it's not 87 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: able to send the munitions because we're not manufacturing nearly 88 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: enough to replace what we've given the Ukrainians as well 89 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 1: as to arm them on a regular basis, because they're expending, 90 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: particularly munitions like artillery and air defense missiles at at 91 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: a staggering rate in order to hold off the Russians. 92 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: So that also, I think time that's another advantage that 93 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: the Russians have Ukrainians. They're they're more willing, they're more adaptable, 94 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:39,080 Speaker 1: they're I think they're again they're more motivated, and they 95 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: have been integrating Western weapons systems, but there are problems 96 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 1: with that since they're getting a judge judge of weapons 97 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 1: systems they're not They're they're not using single systems to 98 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 1: look at American tanks and German tanks and Ukrainian or 99 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, British tanks, and those all have their own 100 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: maintenance and logistical issues to deal with, whereas the have 101 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 1: the old Soviet hardware and the new hardware they're manufacturing. 102 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: It's also made the Ukrainians are expending that old Soviet 103 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: hardware and they're not able to replace that. So that 104 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: those are the sort of the plus and minuses for 105 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: each side. What do you view as the realistic risk 106 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: of this escalating into a nuclear nuclear fight? I was 107 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: far more concerned about this earlier in the war, given 108 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: the rhetoric that was being put out on particularly on 109 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:33,040 Speaker 1: both sides. Um, I'm less concerned about this now, but 110 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: I am still concerned with the regime. Like like I 111 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: can I actually rephrase the question or the quickly bill? Yeah? Absolutely, 112 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: what would what in your mind would you say you 113 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: are confident Russia would respond to nukes? You know, what 114 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: would make Russia go nuclear? That's an excellent question. I 115 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: think direct Western involvement, if nade directly got involved, that 116 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:07,640 Speaker 1: would be one situation where the Russians may consider using 117 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: nuclear weapons, And in other is if they're actually if 118 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: Ukrainians hit them hard enough that the Russian military is 119 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: in danger of losing significant ground or losing significant forces. 120 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,760 Speaker 1: That would be might be another case where the Russians 121 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: might use a nuclear weapon, So those would very likely 122 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: in those cases be practical battlefield nukes that would be used. 123 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 1: But once you um, you know, once that happens, all 124 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: bets are off. You know, this isn't you know, nobody 125 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: wants to play the game of chicken with nuclear weapons. 126 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: Is putin in a weaker or stronger position one year 127 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 1: into this war than when when it was started. I 128 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: would say he is in a stronger position today, and 129 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: it may not be Look, the Russians have had problems 130 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: on the battlefield, but they still have made significant gains 131 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. He's able to he still has the support 132 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: of the Russian elite, of the Russian military and intelligence establishment. 133 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 1: You're not seeing major protests inside of Russia. You're not 134 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: seeing an economic collapse. He's able to raise forces, tom 135 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: he's calling up the reserves. That's not a problem. You know, 136 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: he's standing his ground just as well as Zelensky is 137 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 1: standing his ground. I would say, you know, it's difficult 138 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: to it's hard to believe, but both of them are 139 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,839 Speaker 1: actually stronger than the day that this war started. It's 140 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: hard to say that with Zelensky, since you know, there 141 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: is still a significant portion of Russian ground or Ukrainian 142 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 1: ground under Russian control. But he's in a very strong position. 143 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,319 Speaker 1: He's getting he's getting his weapons from the West, he's 144 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: getting a lot of his demands met, and the same 145 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: thing with Putin. He's getting what he needs to wage 146 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: his war inside of Ukraine with very little domestic resistance. 147 00:08:56,880 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: And internationally, I don't think Putin is as isolated as 148 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: Western leaders like to say. I mean, yes, with the West, 149 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: but that was to be expected. 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What 178 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,960 Speaker 1: have they done wrong? I would say at the outset 179 00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: of the war, the administration was very didn't it was 180 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 1: didn't have a coherent message. And I think it's messaging 181 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,359 Speaker 1: on Ukraine and its commitment to Ukraine has improved drastically 182 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,880 Speaker 1: since the beginning of this war. For instance, the Biden 183 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,480 Speaker 1: administration was able to commence Germany to send those Leopard 184 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: two tanks and is going to send him when abrams 185 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: tanks to the Ukrainians. These are needed if the Ukrainians 186 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,959 Speaker 1: are going to mount an offensive potentially or at the 187 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: very least to conduct the defensive. But yeah, so in 188 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: the beginning, it was, you know, he was all over 189 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 1: the place, President Biden, in his message, it was it 190 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,599 Speaker 1: was very incoherent. Um. I think he has organized the 191 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: coalition of Western nations that are supporting Ukraine. UM, fairly well. 192 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: But this isn't perfect, um, you know. And again, and 193 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: here's another imperfect aspect of this. It seemed like President 194 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 1: Biden had to be drag kicking and screaming for the 195 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: Hymn to supply American tanks. The Germans weren't going to 196 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:31,319 Speaker 1: provide tanks to the Ukrainians because they didn't want the 197 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: Russians to potentially use that against them, to as use 198 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: it as a you know, a flash point to escalate 199 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,440 Speaker 1: against the Germans. So the Germans position was, well, if 200 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: the Americans sent tanks too, then you know it's it's 201 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 1: not just the Germans doing it, it's it's all of 202 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,640 Speaker 1: NATO doing it. So it gets them under the protection 203 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: of the NATO umbrella. I don't know how, you know, 204 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: we could debate them the wisdom of that argument, but 205 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: you know, it took President Biden a while to make 206 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: that decision, but ultimately he had has made decisions that 207 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: have benefited Ukraine. Another another aspect of this though, that 208 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: I don't like that this administration is doing. I do 209 00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: believe there should be accountability for the weapons and aid 210 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 1: that is flowing into Ukraine. If you even question the 211 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,719 Speaker 1: idea that you know, maybe this isn't being done efficiently, 212 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 1: or perhaps there might be some corruption inside Ukraine that 213 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 1: makes you pro Putin and pro Russian. But you know, 214 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,080 Speaker 1: we've the American public has a right. You know, when 215 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: hundreds of billions of dollars over hundred billion dollars now, 216 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 1: and I guarantee it's going to be hundreds of billion 217 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: dollars and several years it'll be approaching a trillion dollars, 218 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 1: the American public has a right to know where this 219 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: money is going and how efficiently is it's being used, 220 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: and this administration is not willing to do that. It's 221 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: it's messaging on that issue is just if you're if 222 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: you want that, then you know you must support Russia. 223 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 1: You must support yeah. I mean to that end, you 224 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: often will hear on the right very pointed criticism of 225 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: Ukraine as before the invasion a deeply corrupt place. How 226 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 1: fair is that assessment and how important is that to 227 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: understanding the politics of that country. It's a very fair assessment. 228 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 1: I mean, if you read the newspaper prior to the 229 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: Russian and read the New York Times, read the Washington 230 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:22,400 Speaker 1: Post or you know any other major newspaper, they're filled 231 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 1: with stories of corruption, Ukrainian corruption. It's political system. But 232 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: not just that, but like it's integration of right ringum 233 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,679 Speaker 1: militias basically such as the azof Brigate, which has been 234 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 1: made an official unit in the military in the Russian 235 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, in the Ukrainian military. Um. This is a 236 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 1: Nazi neo Nazi organization, I mean it. And but this 237 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: has all been whitewashed since since the Russian invasion because 238 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,640 Speaker 1: any criticism whatsoever of the Ukrainians, look, we can, we can, 239 00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: we can be concerned about issues of corruption and accountability 240 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 1: and ben earned about human rights and things like right 241 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: wing militias inside of Ukraine and still support Ukrainian in 242 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: its fight against Russia. This idea that you have to 243 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: be one percent on board or you're on the other side. 244 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: This is just a strange polarization of politics that we 245 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: witnessed over the last ten years that is deeply disturbing 246 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: to me. What would have to happen for Russia to stop, 247 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: you know what? That people often ask, where's the diplomacy 248 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: in all of this? We're not even really hearing about 249 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: any negotiations certainly happening at the high level here to 250 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: bring this conflict to a close. Maybe something's happening behind 251 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 1: closed doors we're not aware of. But what is an 252 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: acceptable end to the fighting from the Russian perspective, I 253 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: mean from the Ukrainian perspective, I assume it's get the 254 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: hell out of our country, right, and that's the problem, 255 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: or you won't have meaningful negotiations when both sides and 256 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: on the Ukrainian side rightfully, so maximalist goals, right, The 257 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 1: Ukrainian goal is get every Russian out of every inch 258 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 1: of our country. Completely understandable. The Russians position, They just 259 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: think next for territories within Ukraine and they're going to fight, 260 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: continue to fight for them. When that's the position of 261 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: each side, there is no room for diplomacy, there's no 262 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: room for talks. I think the only way this actually 263 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 1: ends is on the battlefields. One side has to gain 264 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: an advantage over the other, and I don't see that happening. 265 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 1: And that's why I think we're going to be in 266 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: a situation where this is going to be a war 267 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: for a lengthy war. Oh that's what I was going 268 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: to ask you next. I hear people saying this could 269 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: go on three years, five years, Who knows? Do both sides, 270 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: assuming the NATO and US support continues to the Ukrainians 271 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: at a similar level to what it has been, do 272 00:15:48,720 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: you think that both sides could drag on a war 273 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 1: for five years perhaps more? Well, if you think about it, 274 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: the answer to that is I think the Russians can. 275 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: I'm nuts very very confident that the Western countries are 276 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 1: willing to do this. Um, it's a major drag on 277 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: the on the economies. But if you look back, really 278 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,520 Speaker 1: this war has been going on since twenty and fourteen 279 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: when Russian forces a neck invaded portions of the Don 280 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 1: bust um uh and also in the Crimea right. So 281 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: this war has been been but that was a slow, 282 00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 1: low intensity war. A war at this level. Um. Look, 283 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 1: the US and NATO and western countries can afford to 284 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: support the Ukrainians, um indefinitely if they wish to do so. 285 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: The question is is will they be willing to do so? 286 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: And the Russians also, they still have some aces up 287 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: their sleeves with the energy weapon, which surprisingly to me, 288 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: they really haven't played to the full extent. They're still 289 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: selling energy to Western countries and that's a that's a 290 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: real That's one of the parts of this that I 291 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: think has been so eye opening for a lot of people, 292 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: because early on we were told we're going to crush 293 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: them economically. We're not even have to worry that much 294 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 1: about how the Ukrainians doing the battlefield because the Russians once, 295 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: you know, they once they feel their sanctions and the 296 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: oligarch's mistresses can't buy their chanel purses anymore, and you 297 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: know that all this stuff, it's all going to come 298 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 1: to a halt. Not even close to being true. Right, 299 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 1: we go back a year to what the policy community 300 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 1: would bide in the White House was saying, and where 301 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: we are now, there's it's almost like there were no sanctions, 302 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 1: as you have no sense of this being Have we 303 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: been more hurt economically than the Russians? I think the 304 00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: West has been hurt more economically. You know, prices, energy 305 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: prices in Europe are phenomenally high and here in the 306 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: US significantly high. And you know, look this this has 307 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: an effect downstream in the economy, and I don't think 308 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 1: the Russians have experienced that pain. They haven't experienced the 309 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: economic pain that we have here in the West. And 310 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: I think the Russians can actually make that pain worse. 311 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: That's the real interesting thing about this Warbuck is the Russians. 312 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 1: You know, if they really wanted to hurt the West, 313 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 1: they could shut off the flow of their petroleum flows, 314 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: right the gas and natural platural gas oil and all 315 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 1: of that. But they haven't. They continued to sell to 316 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: the West while they're fighting Ukraine, while the West is 317 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:26,920 Speaker 1: arming the Ukrainians. It's it's a real it's bizarre. And 318 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: the West, you know, you have Western countries Western leaders 319 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: saying we will do everything we can to stop pouting 320 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:38,159 Speaker 1: except stop buying their natural resources. UM. I don't know 321 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: how long that can last. I guess that could last indefinitely. 322 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 1: But you know, you get into some nineteen eighty four 323 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 1: Orwellian endless war type situation with this. Um. Again, I 324 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 1: don't know how long they're what the what the tolerance 325 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: of the West is the look? I go back to Afghanistan, 326 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,399 Speaker 1: I go back to Iraq. We couldn't tolerate low intensity wars. 327 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 1: Granted they were breeding fought by our troops that were 328 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: significantly less than what we're witnessing in Ukraine. So is 329 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 1: it two years? Is it five years? Is it ten years? 330 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 1: If the Russians are willing to stick it out, I 331 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,639 Speaker 1: believe time is on their side. Ultimately, let's take a 332 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,879 Speaker 1: moment out there to tell everybody they should be on 333 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,840 Speaker 1: the lookout. 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You know, 358 00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 1: there's some analysis going around that I will hear from 359 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 1: different experts, because one of the questions that I think 360 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: every American who is paying attention to this has is 361 00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: why do we care to this degree meeting, sending all 362 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 1: this equipment one hundred billion dollars of taxpayer dollars going 363 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,880 Speaker 1: to this And seems it seems that what I hear 364 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: is a combination of almost like domino theory when we 365 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: were worried about communism and you know, the fall of Vietnam, 366 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 1: and oh, if they go, then others will go. But 367 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: in this case it's if they take all of Ukraine, 368 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: then Poland is next, or some other countries next. But 369 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 1: Article five would seem to me to indicate, given the 370 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 1: first of all the problems Russia has even had just 371 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: with Ukraine, that there won't be any NATO country that's 372 00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,680 Speaker 1: next in this regard. What do you make of all that? 373 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,760 Speaker 1: What do you think? It's it's a serious consideration that 374 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: if we don't stop them in Ukraine, we're going to 375 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: have to stop them in Berlin. Yeah. I don't think 376 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: that's a reasonable way to think of this war. I 377 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 1: said earlier, I think within the first month one of 378 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 1: the things that this war showed us was that the 379 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: Russians are not a direct conventional military threat to NATO. 380 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,640 Speaker 1: Perhaps to the Baltic countries, but again we have Article 381 00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:52,240 Speaker 1: five the Russians. I think the Russians can see now 382 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 1: that the US and NATO will unite and defend its territory. 383 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,400 Speaker 1: But Ukraine is not a NATO member and the Russians, 384 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,640 Speaker 1: I mean, look, they couldn't push pass Kiev and they're 385 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: nowhere near it today. Um, they're they're you know, they're 386 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 1: on the southern and eastern and a little bit in 387 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 1: the northeastern portions. They control probably around fifteen percent of Ukraine. 388 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:13,879 Speaker 1: But you know that that was when they throw the 389 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 1: probably their best punch. And so if they're you know, 390 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: I don't think we need to be sitting around here 391 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: worrying about the Russians in Berlin and Warsaw. Um. I 392 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: do find it ironic that of many of the same 393 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 1: people who you know discounted the domino theory theory with Vietnam. Um, 394 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: you know, now make their own domino theory right. If 395 00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: their own version right, the slope gets to be exactly 396 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 1: you know, this is you know, it's a you know, 397 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 1: it's it's selective analysis, and uh, you know, I think 398 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: you have to you have to look at this. You 399 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 1: have to look at what's happened here and recognize that 400 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: the Russians are not a threat. You know, that's not 401 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: the argument. The argument is is Ukraine is an independent country, 402 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: it's an ally, it's a friend, and we're going to 403 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 1: help them. We're gonna help them. Word off the aggression 404 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:07,959 Speaker 1: of a of the Putin and I could support right, 405 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 1: so help me help me this If we're giving everybody 406 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: listening to this a full spectrum argument about about all this, 407 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: which is which is obviously the goal um when it 408 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 1: comes to Russia, let's say controlling half of Ukraine. If 409 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 1: if that, if let's say they got to Kiev or 410 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 1: Kiv and roughly speaking, they were in control of a 411 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 1: solid half of the country, and then the Russian said, 412 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:34,120 Speaker 1: all right, you know what, fine, we'll stop here. We're 413 00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,479 Speaker 1: we're we'll take this part. We've got the Russian speaking 414 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 1: areas of eastern Ukraine, we've got the industrial heartland. We'll 415 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 1: stop here. What's the worst what's the worst case scenario 416 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 1: if that were to happen from our interest from from 417 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 1: America's interest, you know, from America's interests. It's that the 418 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 1: Russians would have gotten away with aggression. UM. You know, 419 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: the United States since the end of the Cold War. Look, 420 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 1: it's the reason why we and UM went to war 421 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: against us. That I'm a saint, right, he invaded Kuwait, 422 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,360 Speaker 1: so the United States intervene. Um, we want to set 423 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: a precedent that one country doesn't invade another and take 424 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: it over, so that that would be a downside, I 425 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,239 Speaker 1: mean I don't but again I don't see that as 426 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 1: a direct threat to NATO. It's a threat to the Ukrainians. 427 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 1: It's probably a threat to other countries that are not 428 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: within NATO. You know, if your country is like Georgia, 429 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 1: and you know, you know in UM for any other 430 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: former Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan for instance, Yeah, those countries 431 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,359 Speaker 1: would be very concerned that the Russians are trying to 432 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 1: put together of the Soviet Union. But again, the Russians 433 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: have shown us that they aren't militarily capable of invading NATO. 434 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: I mean, I would say the Russian military is probably 435 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: wouldn't have that capability for ten to fifteen years, given 436 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: on what it's expended, would it have to put back together, 437 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:53,919 Speaker 1: and how it have to train, you know, train an 438 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 1: entirely new military and learn to fight a different way. 439 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: And you know, I I don't view that would not 440 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: be the worst case scenario for the United States in 441 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 1: the sense that like it would leave a direct threat 442 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 1: to Nator. You would have a rump Ukrainian government if there, 443 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 1: and I would expect the West to arm that significantly 444 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 1: in order to be able to defend itself. Are there 445 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: any energy considerations or the change in pipeline or production 446 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: of natural gas of oil that a Russian seizure of 447 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 1: most or all of Ukraine would would bring to bear? 448 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,399 Speaker 1: You know what? Would it make things markedly worse in 449 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: terms of the pressure the Kremlin could bring to bear 450 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: on Germany, Poland, etc. No, I don't think there it 451 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,359 Speaker 1: would be significant. There's a numerous pipelines that are running 452 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 1: through Ukraine and these are some of these are still 453 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,920 Speaker 1: operational while this war is ongoing. So the Russians have 454 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: shown that they're again They've shown that they're willing to 455 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: sell us loyal to fund their war machine, and we're 456 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: willing to pay for it. So I don't you know, 457 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,360 Speaker 1: the only consideration there is if the Ukrainians cut those 458 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 1: buyelines in order to punish the Russians, Right, But this 459 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:11,159 Speaker 1: one I don't. I couldn't foresee this happening because the 460 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,680 Speaker 1: West still wants to buy that. Yeah, whatever happened to 461 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 1: that pipeline that just mysteriously exploded under the water bill, 462 00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: it's a mystery. I don't know. Um, I don't know 463 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 1: why the Russians would blow up their own infant looking. 464 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: I know there's tons of conspiracy. There were theories out 465 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: there on this. I don't know what the answer is. 466 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 1: But I can't see the Russians, who paid a lot 467 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 1: of money to lay these pipelines, decide to blow it 468 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 1: up when they're more than willing to sell US oil 469 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 1: and natural gas. People who are saying it's a false 470 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:45,199 Speaker 1: flag to excuse Russian aggression the Russians had already invaded, 471 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: I don't think they need any I don't think people 472 00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: needs to play that game. I think he just goes 473 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: after who he wants to go after. So that that 474 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 1: never really made very much, very much sense to me 475 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 1: at all as an explanation. I haven't I've just seen 476 00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 1: any evidence that was actually detonated. It's possible that this 477 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 1: was an accident, that there was some type of you know, 478 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 1: a natural event that caused this. I don't know, but 479 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,200 Speaker 1: I do know that it makes no sense for the 480 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 1: Russians to have blown up their own pipeline. That they're 481 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: making a lot of money off of them. Yeah, no, total, 482 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: I mean putin just like everybody, Russians, the Russian government, 483 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: they're like money. They like their money, and they need 484 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: that money to fund them. Of course. Well that's so 485 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 1: this is really transitioning into the next thing I want 486 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 1: to ask you, which is, how could we make it 487 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 1: painful enough for Russia that they do decide to stop. 488 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,919 Speaker 1: Maybe they are at least willing to make some kind 489 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,360 Speaker 1: of concessions. Let's say the Russia. What would it take 490 00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 1: to get the Russians to sit down and say, you 491 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:43,040 Speaker 1: know what, we'll go back to the de facto call it, 492 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: you know, well pre twenty twenty two. But let's say 493 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: back to basically where things were starting around twenty fourteen, 494 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 1: with the invasion of Don Boss by the paramilitaries and 495 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: all that. You know, we'll kind of go back to 496 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 1: that line. What would it take for them to do that? 497 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 1: Is it just is it just casualties because it feels 498 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: like economically speaking, we don't have the pressure to bring 499 00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: a bear on them. Yeah, and the Russians have shown, 500 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 1: right we if countries won't buy those oil, that oil 501 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 1: or that gas, they'll sell it to other markets because 502 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 1: you know, look oil gas, it's like cash, it's money, 503 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: it's fungible, right, there's always someone that's out there willing 504 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: to buy. So I think what it would take it 505 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: would be a significant military defeat. You would have the 506 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,399 Speaker 1: Russians that would have to lose just significant amount of forces, 507 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 1: but material like they'd have to lose a large part 508 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: of their tanks and their air force would have to 509 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 1: be severely armed. And I don't think you could do 510 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: a lot of this without striking inside of Russia. And 511 00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 1: this is one of those ones where remember you asked 512 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: the question about what might cause an exchange of nuclear weapons? Right, 513 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,959 Speaker 1: that's another one. If if the if the Ukrainians did um, 514 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 1: you know, using weapons that we supplied, decided to strike 515 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 1: deep into Russia in order to hurt the Russians, you know, 516 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 1: supplied depots, air air bases, um, places where troops are mustering. 517 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 1: They would have to hit them really hard buck in 518 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,560 Speaker 1: order to you know, significant casualties and significant loss and mercurial. 519 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: That would force the Russians, like it would it would 520 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 1: create a situation where that they didn't withdraw they can 521 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: it would possibly collapse. But keep in mind, the Ukrainian 522 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,240 Speaker 1: position is that's not good enough. Losing Prime isn't good enough, 523 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 1: Losing those eastern areas of the don Boss isn't good enough. 524 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: They want the Russians out fully now, and that's you know, 525 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 1: that's that's going to be a hard sell. I don't 526 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: think you know, it would take it. Like you said, 527 00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 1: it would take a significant military to eat in order 528 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 1: for the Russians to go there. We're already sending over 529 00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 1: Abrams tanks. What the Germans are sending over Leopard tanks? 530 00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: Is that right? So they're sending over yeah, and some 531 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 1: of their stuff too. This is pretty frontline weaponry for 532 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 1: Western powers. I assume we're providing all kinds of training, intelligence, 533 00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,280 Speaker 1: and logistics support that isn't even really talked about. But 534 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 1: that's just the nature or of how these things work, 535 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 1: how these conflicts play out. So that's all underway. Is 536 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: there anything that we could give them that we wouldn't 537 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:13,880 Speaker 1: have to operate ourselves. That would be a battlefield game changer. 538 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 1: Or is it just no one thing we get into 539 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 1: the Charlie Wilson's War Mike Vickers assessment right that it's 540 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: not one weapon system for the Mujahideen against the Soviets. 541 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 1: It's you just got to give them the Smorgus board. 542 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 1: You gotta give him everything. Right, Is there anything that 543 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: we could give them that would really make much of 544 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,680 Speaker 1: a difference or is it just keep giving them everything 545 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: we've been giving them. I think we have to continue 546 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: giving them what they had, what we've been giving them, 547 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,160 Speaker 1: and it would be so. For instance, the tanks that 548 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 1: we're supplying US is basically supplying a company at tanks. 549 00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 1: I believes around twelve or thirteen tanks. That's fine for 550 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 1: a small area, but it's not going to make a 551 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: strategic difference, in the words, a minor tactical difference. And 552 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,320 Speaker 1: I believe all the tanks put together that the US 553 00:30:56,360 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 1: the Brits are also supplying challenger tanks. Fill out about 554 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: a regiment, an armored regiment. That's good, but that isn't 555 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: I don't think that's enough to drive the Russian I 556 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,280 Speaker 1: mean the Russians have. The Russians have thousands of tanks, right, 557 00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,560 Speaker 1: I mean, we're exactly so we would have to give 558 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: them things in quantities that we can't possibly give them. 559 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,960 Speaker 1: And that's the real problem. Keep in mind, and a 560 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: lot of these are just plain old artillery shells. The 561 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: US has pillage stockpiles. There was an article in the 562 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 1: New York Times about this, and I believe a week 563 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 1: or so ago, where they pillaged hundreds of thousands of 564 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: rounds from a stockpile in Israel and another in South Korea. 565 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 1: Are these are stockpiled in case of conflicts in these regions, 566 00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 1: obviously the one in South Korea, in case there is 567 00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: a war either with North Korea or a war with China. 568 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: So we're trying to rob Peter. We are robbing Peter 569 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:51,360 Speaker 1: to pay Paul here, and we're not giving Peter anything back. 570 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,959 Speaker 1: So were our munitions. We haven't put our factories, our 571 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:59,560 Speaker 1: munitions factories on a wartime footing. So again I mentioned 572 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:04,360 Speaker 1: this early. We're providing Ukrainians with with with shelves from 573 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 1: our stockpiles, with missions with tanks and such from our stockpiles. 574 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 1: Um what we're manufacturing now isn't going to replace what 575 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 1: we've given them, and at some point it's gonna We're 576 00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: going to run out if we don't increase the way 577 00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:19,920 Speaker 1: we're producing these weapons. So we'd have to give them 578 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 1: a lot more than what we're giving them, as well 579 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 1: as have the capability to restock. And this is why 580 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 1: countries like Germany and other countries are concerned about providing 581 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians with their tanks, and particularly the Germany. The Germans, 582 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 1: right about a year ago, right at least right before 583 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 1: after the wars started, they were there was an article 584 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: out where that I think the German Defense minister basically 585 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,000 Speaker 1: or it was a German army chief of staff basically 586 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 1: said the German army was broken that you know, it 587 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 1: can't put units in the field, Its maintenance was poor 588 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 1: on its tanks and armored fighting vehicles. So the last 589 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: thing the country like Germany wants to do is give 590 00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 1: up its um things that are working to Ukraine when 591 00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 1: they can't even manage what they have now. And the 592 00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,520 Speaker 1: US isn't in that situation. But we might be there 593 00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 1: in six months, it might take a year. So what 594 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:13,640 Speaker 1: we you know, a lot of this is you know, 595 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 1: again we'd have to increase the amount that we're giving them. 596 00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: We have to increase the quantity that we're making to 597 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,920 Speaker 1: fill our own stocks and give even more to the Ukrainians. 598 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 1: So you know, and also I do think that, you know, 599 00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 1: if we did this, and I'm not advocating this, I'm 600 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 1: just saying this is something being discussed modernizing the Ukrainian 601 00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 1: Air Force and their air defense system. I swear we didn't. 602 00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 1: We didn't, we didn't plan this. I was gonna say, 603 00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 1: are we going to talk about no fly zone again 604 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 1: this year? Is that? What's is that what's going to happen? 605 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,640 Speaker 1: Or at least a provision of advanced fighters and other aircraft, 606 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: fixed wing, rotary, all that stuff. But that's not a 607 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: quick solution, buck right. It takes months, if not years 608 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 1: to train pilots and maintenance crews and whatnot in order 609 00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,480 Speaker 1: to um to make these get to get them in 610 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 1: the air right, or to integrate complicated missile defense systems. 611 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: Right now, we're providing a hodgepodge. I think the Ukrainians 612 00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 1: need to have a standardization of their weapons systems as well, 613 00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:14,239 Speaker 1: because again they're getting Ukrainians or I'm sorry, United Ki 614 00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:16,800 Speaker 1: tanks from the United Kingdom, or of tanks from Germany 615 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 1: tanks from the United States. These aren't compatible. They might 616 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,720 Speaker 1: fire the same shells, but they have very different needs, 617 00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,239 Speaker 1: very different maintenance needs and logistical needs to keep these 618 00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,680 Speaker 1: things up and running. And at some point that wears 619 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 1: on the Ukrainians and that's a big cost for us 620 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,880 Speaker 1: in order to try to keep those things running. I mean, 621 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,200 Speaker 1: what's the real value of thirteen American m one Abian 622 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:41,160 Speaker 1: tanks in a particular sector of a particular theater in 623 00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:44,160 Speaker 1: this work. And I'm sure it would be significant, But 624 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,320 Speaker 1: over the overall picture, thirteen American tanks aren't going to 625 00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,319 Speaker 1: make a big difference. So I can say this from 626 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:55,200 Speaker 1: having been in Afghanistan in twenty ten and seeing the 627 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,239 Speaker 1: country level assessments at the highest level that we're being 628 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,000 Speaker 1: given to the forced r in theater that the President 629 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 1: was reading. I was seeing all that, and an honest 630 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 1: reading of it was there are a lot of people 631 00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 1: who are trying very hard on the US side to 632 00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: stabilize Afghanistan and make it a place that could fight 633 00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 1: for itself. It wasn't going to happen. It just wasn't 634 00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 1: going to happen. There was no plan beyond we're going 635 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,799 Speaker 1: to just keep trying, and I then we spent another 636 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 1: ten years blood and treasure keep trying. But there was 637 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:28,400 Speaker 1: no plan. There was no path to victory, There was 638 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: no plan beyond that. It feels like, yeah, we're not 639 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,160 Speaker 1: in this war taking casualties, which obviously is very important. 640 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,839 Speaker 1: And I think that's why a lot of people don't 641 00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:38,920 Speaker 1: even really think very much about what's going on in Ukraine. 642 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,799 Speaker 1: But we are spending one hundred billion dollars a year 643 00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,520 Speaker 1: and it is volatile, and they do have a lot 644 00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,560 Speaker 1: of nukes over in Russia and there are concerns. Here 645 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,239 Speaker 1: is the plan to just kind of keep going and 646 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,239 Speaker 1: see what happens, because it doesn't feel like from the 647 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,279 Speaker 1: US side, there is a plan. No. I agree with 648 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:54,800 Speaker 1: you as you were you were saying this. What it 649 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 1: was popping in my head is I haven't seen a 650 00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: well term plan from this administration. It's there. They're playing 651 00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,719 Speaker 1: up by year right now, well Ukraine and say they 652 00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:05,640 Speaker 1: need tanks, Well, let's figure out a way to get them. Thanks. 653 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:07,840 Speaker 1: They're saying they need air defensive, Well we'll get I 654 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,480 Speaker 1: haven't seen someone sit down and say here is a 655 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 1: long term plan to modernize, or to maybe modernize isn't 656 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:19,520 Speaker 1: the right word, but to standardize the Ukrainian military, to 657 00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 1: create a logistics system, a system in order to get 658 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,839 Speaker 1: them what they need and keep it flowing in order 659 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 1: to fight. We haven't seen that. Until we see that, 660 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 1: I think we're going to be in this. We're in 661 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,000 Speaker 1: a very reactive position. And that's fine to put out 662 00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:37,960 Speaker 1: fires for today and tomorrow, but next week and next 663 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,960 Speaker 1: month and next year, that's that's no way to fight 664 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,160 Speaker 1: a war and the way to support a country that's 665 00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 1: fighting and bill. It feels like Russia Ukraine is a 666 00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:50,359 Speaker 1: war of attrition, and one side has a whole lot 667 00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:56,640 Speaker 1: more resources and will and commitment to this than the 668 00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,120 Speaker 1: other in the sense that we're actually the logistics end 669 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 1: of this, right, I mean, if the Western support for 670 00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,719 Speaker 1: this collapses, if you're in a war of attrition, it's 671 00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 1: about who's willing. You know, you're taking losses on both sides, 672 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,600 Speaker 1: who's willing to keep refreshing those losses, both of men 673 00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 1: and material Right the Russian side it seems much deeper, 674 00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 1: bench much more committed to this. On our side, it's well, 675 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:19,200 Speaker 1: we're going to let them do the fighting and We'll 676 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 1: keep providing the material, but it feels at some point 677 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 1: like we're poorer in a lot and that could just 678 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:28,719 Speaker 1: be I don't know what else to say. It could 679 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,360 Speaker 1: all be for naught, right, I mean, it feels like 680 00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 1: we're just trying to prop up the losing side, and 681 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 1: there's an inevitability to that. Well, I would say that, 682 00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,080 Speaker 1: you know, what we are supplying to the Ukrainians has 683 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:42,360 Speaker 1: leveled the battlefield. It's it's made things you know, we 684 00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 1: can't We do have to remember the Ukrainians had significant 685 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: success in the fall, driving the Russians out of two areas. 686 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:51,439 Speaker 1: That's true, so that that has But what we've seen 687 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,840 Speaker 1: now is things are I would say it's basically pretty even. 688 00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,680 Speaker 1: But everything else you said, all things being said, it's 689 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,719 Speaker 1: a war of wills. Now, we could keep providing you know, 690 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,439 Speaker 1: since the Ukrainians don't have enough men, have as many 691 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:08,160 Speaker 1: men and as much stockpiles as the Russians have, the 692 00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,480 Speaker 1: Russians can throw that. What we can do is keep 693 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 1: providing weapons systems that levels the playing field. Um, but 694 00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,520 Speaker 1: again we're you know, I think the weak link in 695 00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,239 Speaker 1: this war isn't the Ukrainians will to fight if the 696 00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:22,840 Speaker 1: weak link is the West will and I just I 697 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,799 Speaker 1: keep going back to Iraq, I keep going back to Afghanistan. 698 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,239 Speaker 1: How we left Iraq in two thousand and eleven, when 699 00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,800 Speaker 1: when we didn't need to, and you saw what happened 700 00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,880 Speaker 1: within three years, the rise of the Islamic State or 701 00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,920 Speaker 1: the leaving from leaving Afghanistan, these were those weren't wars 702 00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,360 Speaker 1: we lost on the battlefield or because we didn't have 703 00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,319 Speaker 1: enough men or munitions. There are wars because we lost 704 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 1: our will to fight. If the West loses its will 705 00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:50,520 Speaker 1: to support the Ukrainians, if this war becomes too too 706 00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:54,920 Speaker 1: costly for Western countries, then the Ukrainians, you know, they 707 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,680 Speaker 1: at some point they're they're bound to be on the 708 00:38:57,760 --> 00:39:01,800 Speaker 1: losing side. What happened that the US decides that we 709 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,600 Speaker 1: are going to under the Biden administration, have a no 710 00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:10,080 Speaker 1: fly zone and also just start start conducting air strikes 711 00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:14,200 Speaker 1: on Russian positions only inside of Ukraine, but we we 712 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,960 Speaker 1: become the Ukrainian Air Force, so to speak. How do 713 00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,799 Speaker 1: you think putin response to that, that that would could 714 00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 1: lead to a situation where tactic little nuclear weapons are exchange. 715 00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,759 Speaker 1: I do you know a direct Western involvement in US 716 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:31,640 Speaker 1: troops or US pilots flying over Ukraine, and I would argue, 717 00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: you cannot. This is, by the way, when duns was 718 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,359 Speaker 1: talked about at the very beginning, I couldn't believe Air 719 00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,400 Speaker 1: Force generals, guys who you know, served in the country, 720 00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,120 Speaker 1: serve their nation for thirty years. We're advocating this, establish 721 00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:44,680 Speaker 1: you in no fly zone. You can't just do that 722 00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,480 Speaker 1: in Ukraine. These aircraft are being launched from Russian bases. 723 00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,200 Speaker 1: There's air defense systems that are across the border in 724 00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,719 Speaker 1: Belarus and inside of Russia. Those would have to be 725 00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,640 Speaker 1: targeted in order for so you're hitting Russian sam sites, 726 00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:00,040 Speaker 1: you're hitting Russian air bases, yeah, yeah, not Russia and 727 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,560 Speaker 1: sights inside of Ukraine. You'd have to do that in 728 00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:08,120 Speaker 1: order to establish a legitimate note fly zone. And once 729 00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 1: we do that again, all bets are off that you 730 00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:13,479 Speaker 1: want to have a you want to you know, raise 731 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,759 Speaker 1: the get that nuclear clock to tick a couple of 732 00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:20,239 Speaker 1: minutes closer to midnight, go ahead and start striking the 733 00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:23,600 Speaker 1: Russians inside their own territory. What's the before we close 734 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:27,200 Speaker 1: your bill, what's the optimistic case for how this goes realistic? 735 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:31,839 Speaker 1: The optimistic you know, I could see a scenario here 736 00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:36,279 Speaker 1: where the Russians they're doing their call up and but 737 00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:41,440 Speaker 1: they're putting inexperienced troops into fight and perhaps the US. 738 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,279 Speaker 1: I'm seeing some reports that the US might provide some 739 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,480 Speaker 1: longer range rocket systems. Those have been very effective on 740 00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:51,160 Speaker 1: the battlefield. So an optimistic take on this from the 741 00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 1: Ukrainian side is that they get the weapons systems they 742 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,880 Speaker 1: need to hurt the Russians real bad to force them 743 00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:58,719 Speaker 1: out of certain areas. I don't think they're going to 744 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:00,440 Speaker 1: be able to do it out of all of the areas, 745 00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 1: but that they could force they could make the Russians 746 00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:07,400 Speaker 1: really think hard about pressing their offensive. Bill Roggio Foundation 747 00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 1: Defensive Democracies, long Ward journal is Bill runs does great 748 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:13,719 Speaker 1: work in analysis on this. Go check it out. And Bill, 749 00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,640 Speaker 1: I believe you do a podcast. That's right. We have 750 00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:20,000 Speaker 1: a podcast called Generation John Jihad. That's where we cover 751 00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,680 Speaker 1: the you know, issues of what used to be called 752 00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:24,920 Speaker 1: the Global war. Ontire Bill, we got to have you 753 00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:28,520 Speaker 1: back to talk you know, baseball and best grilling tips 754 00:41:28,560 --> 00:41:31,680 Speaker 1: for the summer. But for this episode, we wanted a 755 00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:33,520 Speaker 1: deep dive in Ukraine. We got one. Thank you for 756 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,160 Speaker 1: your expertise in your time. We appreciate it. Always a 757 00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: pleasure about