Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Trump Administration's recent
Speaker 1: cuts to humanitarian work overseas stands out for their size
Speaker 1: and scope, but they don't stand alone. Even before the
Speaker 1: start of President Trump's second term, international aid from developed
Speaker 1: nations was on the decline. The Organization for Economic Cooperation
Speaker 1: and Development reported that in twenty twenty four, international aid
Speaker 1: was down roughly seven percent, and the OECD estimates that
Speaker 1: the dismantling of USAID and other changes made by the
Speaker 1: Trump white House will contribute to another drop in international
Speaker 1: aid in twenty twenty five by as much as seventeen percent.
Speaker 1: An organization that's seen the impact of that decline up
Speaker 1: close is the International Crisis Group. For the last thirty years,
Speaker 1: ICG has been working to prevent war and conflict and
Speaker 1: to resolve it wherever where it's happening.
Speaker 2: It's an organization that is round about one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty with our staff throughout the world.
Speaker 1: Comfort Hero is the International Crisis Group's President and CEO, so.
Speaker 2: You'll find colleagues based as far as Carracus right through
Speaker 2: to Taipei, from as high up as Ukraine right down
Speaker 2: to South Africa as well. It is very much an
Speaker 2: in country operation.
Speaker 1: ICG is an independent organization that relies on staff working
Speaker 1: on the ground around the globe to inform its policy recommendations.
Speaker 2: The methodology of crisis groups that you speak to all sites,
Speaker 2: it's very vital in shaping the policy options, in defining
Speaker 2: the way forward, that you've captured the views of all
Speaker 2: the actors that are crucial to the conflict, from those
Speaker 2: who are fighting, to those who are the victims, to
Speaker 2: those who are influential as well.
Speaker 1: At the start of the year, International Crisis Group released
Speaker 1: a list of the ten conflicts it's watching. The wars
Speaker 1: in Ukraine and Gaza around there, so we're the conflicts
Speaker 1: in Me and mar and Sudan. ICG also highlighted relationships
Speaker 1: where tensions have been escalating, like the relationship between the
Speaker 1: US and China and the US and Mexico. Aro says
Speaker 1: that what this signals is that we are in a
Speaker 1: new and more dangerous age.
Speaker 2: Not only is it perilous, but it is chapter defining.
Speaker 2: We are literally closing down a period where liberal international
Speaker 2: order was very much the area in which Crisis Group
Speaker 2: was born. In the institutions, the norms of principles that
Speaker 2: shaped our birth are all crumbling. Some of them are
Speaker 2: disappearing pretty fast. Institutions are breaking. So for me, this
Speaker 2: is more than a perilous moment. A chapter is firmly
Speaker 2: being shut and it's quite uncertain what we're going to
Speaker 2: be birthing them into the future.
Speaker 1: I'm David Gera, and this is the big take from
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Comfort Ero, the president
Speaker 1: and CEO of the International Crisis Group, on how a
Speaker 1: new era of conflict is intersecting with the rise in
Speaker 1: nationalism and populism in the global competition for attention and resources.
Speaker 1: Comfort Hero has been working in international crisis response for
Speaker 1: decades and I wanted to know, as she tracks conflicts
Speaker 1: all over the world, what variables they have in common.
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Crisis Group, we're very careful to
Speaker 2: try and provide a blanket narrative to explain the different
Speaker 2: wars that we're looking at. I think that's one of
Speaker 2: the reasons why Crisis Group was created, to make sure
Speaker 2: that you are looking at the specific context of its
Speaker 2: conflict as well. But if you're asking me to find
Speaker 2: a through line in all of this, from Venezuela to
Speaker 2: know Haiti to the Sahel to the Horn to Manma.
Speaker 2: It's hard to ignore power the politics a local regional
Speaker 2: at the core of all of these conflicts as well,
Speaker 2: and territorial grab is now back in Vokee as well.
Speaker 2: So I think that's also another trend line that we're seeing,
Speaker 2: and that the guardrails that would often define how states
Speaker 2: cooperate with one another that is also on the verge
Speaker 2: of collapse as well.
Speaker 1: When you look at all the conflicts that are taking place,
Speaker 1: there are some that do attract more interest and attention,
Speaker 1: and I wonder how much that preoccupies you. What does
Speaker 1: get the world's attention and what doesn't.
Speaker 2: The heart of the mission for Crisis Group when its
Speaker 2: founders created it was that it wasn't going to be
Speaker 2: an organization that just focused on the headline conflicts, the
Speaker 2: ones that were at the top of mind for decision
Speaker 2: makers and the ones that the media latched onto. It
Speaker 2: was going to be an organization that focused on off
Speaker 2: the radar, forgotten those that are often that don't capture
Speaker 2: the hearts and minds. And that is a reminder of
Speaker 2: the pressure on Crisis Group as well that our job
Speaker 2: is to make sure that those conflicts are that don't
Speaker 2: quite make the cut for the decision making for the
Speaker 2: policymakers who have limited capacity, limited bandwidth, that you remind them.
Speaker 2: And I think what concerns me more and more today
Speaker 2: is not that these are forgotten conflicts, but they're deprioritized.
Speaker 2: So good example, you know Ukraine was top of mind
Speaker 2: since the invasion and by Russia in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: Now fast forwards the seventh of October, and it seemed
Speaker 2: to be a tussle between who was going to grab
Speaker 2: the attention in Ukraine or what was happening in Gaza.
Speaker 2: And now today you add that into the mix of Sudan.
Speaker 2: Now when you look at the statistics on Sudan, it
Speaker 2: is today the worst humanitarian crisis. It is competing for
Speaker 2: attention as well. So it is a competition for who
Speaker 2: gains the attention not just by international actors, but even
Speaker 2: by regional powers, even the regions themselves, regional leaders, regional hegemons,
Speaker 2: those who are influenced or that are close to the region.
Speaker 2: They struggle because they're not only dealing with the region,
Speaker 2: but also what is different thirty years ago for crisis
Speaker 2: group is that today all those key actors that you
Speaker 2: would depend on to help shape the outcome of a
Speaker 2: conflict themselves are in crisis. So I think of Nigeria,
Speaker 2: for example, I think of South Africa for example. You know,
Speaker 2: I think of Brazil for example. When I think of
Speaker 2: India and China, and they all have a different levels
Speaker 2: of crisis. Is that they're having to cope with, including
Speaker 2: those on their borders as well. So it's a real
Speaker 2: competition for bandwidth and capacity to address these issues.
Speaker 1: Up next, how that competition for a shrinking pool of
Speaker 1: resources is playing out on the ground. On his first
Speaker 1: day back in office, President Trump imposed a ninety day
Speaker 1: pause on all US foreign aid. In March, his administration
Speaker 1: dismantled the US Agency of International Development, slashing tens of
Speaker 1: billions of dollars in assistance to developing nations. Those cuts
Speaker 1: have been contested in court. Earlier this month, a US
Speaker 1: appeals court ruled the White House can cut foreign assistance
Speaker 1: funds approved by Congress for this year. I asked comfort Era,
Speaker 1: the president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, about
Speaker 1: the effects of those changes in the places where her
Speaker 1: organization works.
Speaker 2: We're still trying to assess the impact, but I think
Speaker 2: there are various levels of impact. One is the immediate
Speaker 2: misery and the uncertainty about where the next money was
Speaker 2: going to come from. In terms of eight, because while
Speaker 2: the focus has been on USAD, we've got to not
Speaker 2: forget the overall context of the fate of international aid.
Speaker 2: So in Europe, for example, Europe has already chloring back
Speaker 2: its EID money. France, for example, eighteen percent cuts in
Speaker 2: its own eight budget. Germany itself ten point seven percent
Speaker 2: last year twenty twenty four, there's already a decline seven
Speaker 2: point one percent decline already an international aid. This year
Speaker 2: we're looking at seventeen percent. So there is a global
Speaker 2: decline in international aid and to sadly see that crumble
Speaker 2: overnight has a shocking effect.
Speaker 1: One thing Ero morns is the loss of expertise, the
Speaker 1: knowledge and skills at USAID and other aid agencies.
Speaker 2: Important staff on the ground collecting the data. They have
Speaker 2: a clear sense of where assistance is needed. They're seeing
Speaker 2: the refugee flows to understand what's happening in the country,
Speaker 2: and they're able to assess and prioritize where those needs are.
Speaker 2: So that it happened so far so quickly, I think
Speaker 2: is what's shocked a number of people.
Speaker 1: It begs the question who will fill that vacuum? If
Speaker 1: you're describing and bearing in mind what you just said,
Speaker 1: which is its early days yet and everyone's still trying
Speaker 1: to assess what the impact is going to be. Are
Speaker 1: you seeing other states other groups assume some of that
Speaker 1: responsibility or see that as advantageous for them to do.
Speaker 2: Look, let me say two things before answering your question.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, it's been devastating, it's been shock and
Speaker 2: when you think about the loss of significant aid. When
Speaker 2: I think about the Civil Society Group INS, very local
Speaker 2: civil Society Group INS in Sudan, and the work that
Speaker 2: they were doing, how they quickly converted themselves to provide
Speaker 2: kitchen soups, to provide humanity and aid where international agencies
Speaker 2: couldn't get through. When I think about a support that's
Speaker 2: been given by various actors in Gaza, when I just
Speaker 2: think about the global scale of this. At the same time,
Speaker 2: I think there are a group of people who have
Speaker 2: been watching the international aid industry, and I use that
Speaker 2: word very carefully, and I've been concerned about inefficiencies, about overbloatedness,
Speaker 2: about the overlap, the duplicative nature of some of the
Speaker 2: UN agencies, for example, So there was a number of
Speaker 2: concerns and of course a big debate about reform as well.
Speaker 2: So I hope that what in mergers in the next
Speaker 2: few years is a more resilient architecture that really is
Speaker 2: able to work with both local and regional actors as well.
Speaker 1: You travel a lot and recently went to bangladest.
Speaker 3: I am here at Coxis Bizarre in the southern eastern
Speaker 3: tip of Bangladesh on the border of Mihnmart to focus
Speaker 3: on the world's largest refugee camp housing one point two
Speaker 3: million Bahingas who fled from Myanmar.
Speaker 1: Could you describe what it looks like and maybe more
Speaker 1: than that, sort of what's happening there, what you saw
Speaker 1: and why it's so.
Speaker 2: Yeah. It wasn't until I landed in Cocsig's Bizarre that
Speaker 2: I finally heard what they had been saying to me,
Speaker 2: which was that this was the largest refugee camp in
Speaker 2: the world. I was shocked by that.
Speaker 1: The vastness seven, yes, the vastness.
Speaker 2: But to be told that it was the largest refugee
Speaker 2: camp as well, because you know, having worked in Africa
Speaker 2: for many years and also lived in Nairobi, which was
Speaker 2: also the home for the largest camp because of Somalia.
Speaker 2: This was a shock to me as well. So even
Speaker 2: for me a crisis group where we spend a great
Speaker 2: deal of our time warning international actors and thinking through
Speaker 2: it was a reminder to me that you know that
Speaker 2: out of the sort of the usual places that is
Speaker 2: often in the headlines in terms of humanitarian displacement and
Speaker 2: refugee crisis, in terms of humanitarian catastrophe, it was a
Speaker 2: reminder to me as well. And I had the opportunity
Speaker 2: to visit the camp itself. I was there at a
Speaker 2: time where the debate was high about the future funding
Speaker 2: for the camp. I was there also at the time
Speaker 2: when Bangladesh, of course, is going through its own transition.
Speaker 1: In August of twenty twenty four, Bangladesh's Prime Minister, Sheik
Speaker 1: Hasina was ousted after fifteen years in power. The country
Speaker 1: is currently being led by an interim government and the
Speaker 1: next national elections are scheduled for February twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: The question was how Bangladesh is going to manage its
Speaker 2: transition and also deal with the Rahinga crisis that's on
Speaker 2: the border. So it was a moment to understand Bangladesh's
Speaker 2: own role, the fate of the UN that is going
Speaker 2: through liquidation crisis of its own, regardless of what's happened
Speaker 2: to USA, but also watching the mushrooming of all these
Speaker 2: various non state actors in Me and Mah who have
Speaker 2: been able to resist the junta.
Speaker 1: Since a twenty twenty one coup, a military junta has
Speaker 1: ruled Me and mar but hundreds of armed groups within
Speaker 1: the country have resisted, carving out autonomous.
Speaker 2: Pockets, effectively states within a state, governing different parts of
Speaker 2: their society. But also in the midst of that, it's
Speaker 2: just the untold misery that you don't hear in the headlines,
Speaker 2: the sexual violations, the rape, the way in which young
Speaker 2: men are recruited, and the sustainability of the war in
Speaker 2: these refugee camps as well. So it was a tsunami
Speaker 2: of issues that you could see. You could tell the
Speaker 2: story of me and mal just by being in that camp.
Speaker 2: Just listen to the voices was quite devastating as well.
Speaker 1: I just want to wrap up by asking you about
Speaker 1: something you said at the top, and that is that
Speaker 1: you've seen definitive empathy globally. Are you optimistic that will return.
Speaker 2: I think for us to get back to that level
Speaker 2: of empathy, the organizations like Crisis Group are going to
Speaker 2: be crucial in explaining why it matters why you should
Speaker 2: care about the crisises, not just the Gazas and the Ukraines,
Speaker 2: which have a sort of a larger international peace and security,
Speaker 2: but for humanity's sake as well. So I worry that
Speaker 2: it's going to be hard to regain that. I also say,
Speaker 2: thirty years ago liberal international order, the interventionist impulse that
Speaker 2: you saw for a number of Western countries. They are
Speaker 2: not necessarily on the front line in the way that
Speaker 2: there are other actors that are involved as well. But
Speaker 2: even journalists are facing a picarious moment in their ability
Speaker 2: to get access. They're often blocked from being able to
Speaker 2: bring those stories to you as well. So I think
Speaker 2: even getting journalists to be able to do their work effectively,
Speaker 2: that's going to be crucial to the empathy. But societies themselves,
Speaker 2: societies that you'd often turn to for assistance, for aid,
Speaker 2: for support also going through their own crisis is as well.
Speaker 2: Some of these countries themselves require that aid to be
Speaker 2: turned inwards as well. You know, you've got the poverty
Speaker 2: in parts of the countries that we would often turn
Speaker 2: to for assistance, I mean, rich advanced societies. They're going
Speaker 2: through different levels of crisiss migration, populism, a cost of
Speaker 2: living crisis, deficit crisis as well. More than any other time,
Speaker 2: it's very clear to me that there is now an
Speaker 2: overlap between the domestic of international. You have to be
Speaker 2: able to explain to your domestic constituency why it matters
Speaker 2: for you to be concerned about the fate of other
Speaker 2: civilians caught in crisises elsewhere.
Speaker 1: I imagine someone in your position could be tempted to
Speaker 1: despair looking at all that's happening around the world, and
Speaker 1: how do you forestall that from happening? What gives you
Speaker 1: grounds for optimism as you again survey the whole world
Speaker 1: and how many conforts are taking place all over it.
Speaker 2: Because I think in the end of the day, and
Speaker 2: it is the essence of crisis group that in every
Speaker 2: crisis there is a window of opportunity. The job of
Speaker 2: crisis group is to latch onto those windows and oh
Speaker 2: the door, and keep that door open, keep it open,
Speaker 2: and maybe wide it as well. And that's what keeps
Speaker 2: me hopeful because it's very easy to despair and that
Speaker 2: center of fatalism and you can't afford to have that.
Speaker 2: And also just watching my colleagues as well, and it's
Speaker 2: a privilege to wake up every morning to one hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty different people providing you with information, and not
Speaker 2: just information, but at the end of every piece of
Speaker 2: information what they see as the the possibilities and just
Speaker 2: the creativeness as well. And in the moment of despair
Speaker 2: and anxiety, that you have people who are willing to
Speaker 2: think through creatively what's possible. I don't have the right
Speaker 2: therefore to despair basically as well.
Speaker 1: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerra.
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