WEBVTT - The Crises Vying for Dwindling Foreign Aid

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Trump Administration's recent

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<v Speaker 1>cuts to humanitarian work overseas stands out for their size

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<v Speaker 1>and scope, but they don't stand alone. Even before the

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<v Speaker 1>start of President Trump's second term, international aid from developed

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<v Speaker 1>nations was on the decline. The Organization for Economic Cooperation

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<v Speaker 1>and Development reported that in twenty twenty four, international aid

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<v Speaker 1>was down roughly seven percent, and the OECD estimates that

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<v Speaker 1>the dismantling of USAID and other changes made by the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump white House will contribute to another drop in international

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<v Speaker 1>aid in twenty twenty five by as much as seventeen percent.

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<v Speaker 1>An organization that's seen the impact of that decline up

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<v Speaker 1>close is the International Crisis Group. For the last thirty years,

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<v Speaker 1>ICG has been working to prevent war and conflict and

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<v Speaker 1>to resolve it wherever where it's happening.

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<v Speaker 2>It's an organization that is round about one hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>fifty with our staff throughout the world.

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<v Speaker 1>Comfort Hero is the International Crisis Group's President and CEO, so.

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<v Speaker 2>You'll find colleagues based as far as Carracus right through

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<v Speaker 2>to Taipei, from as high up as Ukraine right down

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<v Speaker 2>to South Africa as well. It is very much an

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<v Speaker 2>in country operation.

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<v Speaker 1>ICG is an independent organization that relies on staff working

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<v Speaker 1>on the ground around the globe to inform its policy recommendations.

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<v Speaker 2>The methodology of crisis groups that you speak to all sites,

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<v Speaker 2>it's very vital in shaping the policy options, in defining

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<v Speaker 2>the way forward, that you've captured the views of all

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<v Speaker 2>the actors that are crucial to the conflict, from those

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<v Speaker 2>who are fighting, to those who are the victims, to

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<v Speaker 2>those who are influential as well.

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<v Speaker 1>At the start of the year, International Crisis Group released

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<v Speaker 1>a list of the ten conflicts it's watching. The wars

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine and Gaza around there, so we're the conflicts

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<v Speaker 1>in Me and mar and Sudan. ICG also highlighted relationships

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<v Speaker 1>where tensions have been escalating, like the relationship between the

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<v Speaker 1>US and China and the US and Mexico. Aro says

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<v Speaker 1>that what this signals is that we are in a

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<v Speaker 1>new and more dangerous age.

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<v Speaker 2>Not only is it perilous, but it is chapter defining.

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<v Speaker 2>We are literally closing down a period where liberal international

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<v Speaker 2>order was very much the area in which Crisis Group

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<v Speaker 2>was born. In the institutions, the norms of principles that

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<v Speaker 2>shaped our birth are all crumbling. Some of them are

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<v Speaker 2>disappearing pretty fast. Institutions are breaking. So for me, this

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<v Speaker 2>is more than a perilous moment. A chapter is firmly

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<v Speaker 2>being shut and it's quite uncertain what we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>be birthing them into the future.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm David Gera, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News Today. On the show, Comfort Ero, the president

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<v Speaker 1>and CEO of the International Crisis Group, on how a

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<v Speaker 1>new era of conflict is intersecting with the rise in

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<v Speaker 1>nationalism and populism in the global competition for attention and resources.

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<v Speaker 1>Comfort Hero has been working in international crisis response for

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<v Speaker 1>decades and I wanted to know, as she tracks conflicts

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<v Speaker 1>all over the world, what variables they have in common.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know, Crisis Group, we're very careful to

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<v Speaker 2>try and provide a blanket narrative to explain the different

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<v Speaker 2>wars that we're looking at. I think that's one of

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<v Speaker 2>the reasons why Crisis Group was created, to make sure

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<v Speaker 2>that you are looking at the specific context of its

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<v Speaker 2>conflict as well. But if you're asking me to find

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<v Speaker 2>a through line in all of this, from Venezuela to

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<v Speaker 2>know Haiti to the Sahel to the Horn to Manma.

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<v Speaker 2>It's hard to ignore power the politics a local regional

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<v Speaker 2>at the core of all of these conflicts as well,

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<v Speaker 2>and territorial grab is now back in Vokee as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think that's also another trend line that we're seeing,

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<v Speaker 2>and that the guardrails that would often define how states

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<v Speaker 2>cooperate with one another that is also on the verge

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<v Speaker 2>of collapse as well.

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<v Speaker 1>When you look at all the conflicts that are taking place,

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<v Speaker 1>there are some that do attract more interest and attention,

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<v Speaker 1>and I wonder how much that preoccupies you. What does

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<v Speaker 1>get the world's attention and what doesn't.

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<v Speaker 2>The heart of the mission for Crisis Group when its

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<v Speaker 2>founders created it was that it wasn't going to be

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<v Speaker 2>an organization that just focused on the headline conflicts, the

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<v Speaker 2>ones that were at the top of mind for decision

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<v Speaker 2>makers and the ones that the media latched onto. It

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<v Speaker 2>was going to be an organization that focused on off

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<v Speaker 2>the radar, forgotten those that are often that don't capture

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<v Speaker 2>the hearts and minds. And that is a reminder of

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<v Speaker 2>the pressure on Crisis Group as well that our job

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<v Speaker 2>is to make sure that those conflicts are that don't

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<v Speaker 2>quite make the cut for the decision making for the

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<v Speaker 2>policymakers who have limited capacity, limited bandwidth, that you remind them.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think what concerns me more and more today

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<v Speaker 2>is not that these are forgotten conflicts, but they're deprioritized.

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<v Speaker 2>So good example, you know Ukraine was top of mind

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<v Speaker 2>since the invasion and by Russia in twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 2>Now fast forwards the seventh of October, and it seemed

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<v Speaker 2>to be a tussle between who was going to grab

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<v Speaker 2>the attention in Ukraine or what was happening in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>And now today you add that into the mix of Sudan.

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<v Speaker 2>Now when you look at the statistics on Sudan, it

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<v Speaker 2>is today the worst humanitarian crisis. It is competing for

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<v Speaker 2>attention as well. So it is a competition for who

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<v Speaker 2>gains the attention not just by international actors, but even

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<v Speaker 2>by regional powers, even the regions themselves, regional leaders, regional hegemons,

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<v Speaker 2>those who are influenced or that are close to the region.

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<v Speaker 2>They struggle because they're not only dealing with the region,

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<v Speaker 2>but also what is different thirty years ago for crisis

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<v Speaker 2>group is that today all those key actors that you

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<v Speaker 2>would depend on to help shape the outcome of a

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<v Speaker 2>conflict themselves are in crisis. So I think of Nigeria,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, I think of South Africa for example. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>I think of Brazil for example. When I think of

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<v Speaker 2>India and China, and they all have a different levels

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<v Speaker 2>of crisis. Is that they're having to cope with, including

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<v Speaker 2>those on their borders as well. So it's a real

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<v Speaker 2>competition for bandwidth and capacity to address these issues.

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<v Speaker 1>Up next, how that competition for a shrinking pool of

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<v Speaker 1>resources is playing out on the ground. On his first

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<v Speaker 1>day back in office, President Trump imposed a ninety day

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<v Speaker 1>pause on all US foreign aid. In March, his administration

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<v Speaker 1>dismantled the US Agency of International Development, slashing tens of

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<v Speaker 1>billions of dollars in assistance to developing nations. Those cuts

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<v Speaker 1>have been contested in court. Earlier this month, a US

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<v Speaker 1>appeals court ruled the White House can cut foreign assistance

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<v Speaker 1>funds approved by Congress for this year. I asked comfort Era,

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<v Speaker 1>the president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, about

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<v Speaker 1>the effects of those changes in the places where her

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<v Speaker 1>organization works.

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<v Speaker 2>We're still trying to assess the impact, but I think

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<v Speaker 2>there are various levels of impact. One is the immediate

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<v Speaker 2>misery and the uncertainty about where the next money was

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<v Speaker 2>going to come from. In terms of eight, because while

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<v Speaker 2>the focus has been on USAD, we've got to not

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<v Speaker 2>forget the overall context of the fate of international aid.

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<v Speaker 2>So in Europe, for example, Europe has already chloring back

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<v Speaker 2>its EID money. France, for example, eighteen percent cuts in

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<v Speaker 2>its own eight budget. Germany itself ten point seven percent

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<v Speaker 2>last year twenty twenty four, there's already a decline seven

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<v Speaker 2>point one percent decline already an international aid. This year

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<v Speaker 2>we're looking at seventeen percent. So there is a global

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<v Speaker 2>decline in international aid and to sadly see that crumble

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<v Speaker 2>overnight has a shocking effect.

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<v Speaker 1>One thing Ero morns is the loss of expertise, the

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<v Speaker 1>knowledge and skills at USAID and other aid agencies.

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<v Speaker 2>Important staff on the ground collecting the data. They have

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<v Speaker 2>a clear sense of where assistance is needed. They're seeing

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<v Speaker 2>the refugee flows to understand what's happening in the country,

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<v Speaker 2>and they're able to assess and prioritize where those needs are.

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<v Speaker 2>So that it happened so far so quickly, I think

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<v Speaker 2>is what's shocked a number of people.

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<v Speaker 1>It begs the question who will fill that vacuum? If

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<v Speaker 1>you're describing and bearing in mind what you just said,

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<v Speaker 1>which is its early days yet and everyone's still trying

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<v Speaker 1>to assess what the impact is going to be. Are

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<v Speaker 1>you seeing other states other groups assume some of that

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<v Speaker 1>responsibility or see that as advantageous for them to do.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, let me say two things before answering your question.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, it's been devastating, it's been shock and

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<v Speaker 2>when you think about the loss of significant aid. When

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<v Speaker 2>I think about the Civil Society Group INS, very local

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<v Speaker 2>civil Society Group INS in Sudan, and the work that

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<v Speaker 2>they were doing, how they quickly converted themselves to provide

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<v Speaker 2>kitchen soups, to provide humanity and aid where international agencies

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<v Speaker 2>couldn't get through. When I think about a support that's

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<v Speaker 2>been given by various actors in Gaza, when I just

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<v Speaker 2>think about the global scale of this. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 2>I think there are a group of people who have

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<v Speaker 2>been watching the international aid industry, and I use that

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<v Speaker 2>word very carefully, and I've been concerned about inefficiencies, about overbloatedness,

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<v Speaker 2>about the overlap, the duplicative nature of some of the

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<v Speaker 2>UN agencies, for example, So there was a number of

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<v Speaker 2>concerns and of course a big debate about reform as well.

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<v Speaker 2>So I hope that what in mergers in the next

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<v Speaker 2>few years is a more resilient architecture that really is

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<v Speaker 2>able to work with both local and regional actors as well.

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<v Speaker 1>You travel a lot and recently went to bangladest.

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<v Speaker 3>I am here at Coxis Bizarre in the southern eastern

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<v Speaker 3>tip of Bangladesh on the border of Mihnmart to focus

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<v Speaker 3>on the world's largest refugee camp housing one point two

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<v Speaker 3>million Bahingas who fled from Myanmar.

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<v Speaker 1>Could you describe what it looks like and maybe more

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<v Speaker 1>than that, sort of what's happening there, what you saw

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<v Speaker 1>and why it's so.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. It wasn't until I landed in Cocsig's Bizarre that

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<v Speaker 2>I finally heard what they had been saying to me,

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<v Speaker 2>which was that this was the largest refugee camp in

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<v Speaker 2>the world. I was shocked by that.

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<v Speaker 1>The vastness seven, yes, the vastness.

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<v Speaker 2>But to be told that it was the largest refugee

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<v Speaker 2>camp as well, because you know, having worked in Africa

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<v Speaker 2>for many years and also lived in Nairobi, which was

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<v Speaker 2>also the home for the largest camp because of Somalia.

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<v Speaker 2>This was a shock to me as well. So even

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<v Speaker 2>for me a crisis group where we spend a great

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<v Speaker 2>deal of our time warning international actors and thinking through

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<v Speaker 2>it was a reminder to me that you know that

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<v Speaker 2>out of the sort of the usual places that is

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<v Speaker 2>often in the headlines in terms of humanitarian displacement and

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<v Speaker 2>refugee crisis, in terms of humanitarian catastrophe, it was a

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<v Speaker 2>reminder to me as well. And I had the opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>to visit the camp itself. I was there at a

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<v Speaker 2>time where the debate was high about the future funding

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<v Speaker 2>for the camp. I was there also at the time

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<v Speaker 2>when Bangladesh, of course, is going through its own transition.

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<v Speaker 1>In August of twenty twenty four, Bangladesh's Prime Minister, Sheik

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<v Speaker 1>Hasina was ousted after fifteen years in power. The country

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<v Speaker 1>is currently being led by an interim government and the

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<v Speaker 1>next national elections are scheduled for February twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 2>The question was how Bangladesh is going to manage its

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<v Speaker 2>transition and also deal with the Rahinga crisis that's on

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<v Speaker 2>the border. So it was a moment to understand Bangladesh's

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<v Speaker 2>own role, the fate of the UN that is going

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<v Speaker 2>through liquidation crisis of its own, regardless of what's happened

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<v Speaker 2>to USA, but also watching the mushrooming of all these

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<v Speaker 2>various non state actors in Me and Mah who have

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<v Speaker 2>been able to resist the junta.

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<v Speaker 1>Since a twenty twenty one coup, a military junta has

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<v Speaker 1>ruled Me and mar but hundreds of armed groups within

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<v Speaker 1>the country have resisted, carving out autonomous.

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<v Speaker 2>Pockets, effectively states within a state, governing different parts of

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<v Speaker 2>their society. But also in the midst of that, it's

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<v Speaker 2>just the untold misery that you don't hear in the headlines,

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<v Speaker 2>the sexual violations, the rape, the way in which young

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<v Speaker 2>men are recruited, and the sustainability of the war in

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<v Speaker 2>these refugee camps as well. So it was a tsunami

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<v Speaker 2>of issues that you could see. You could tell the

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<v Speaker 2>story of me and mal just by being in that camp.

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<v Speaker 2>Just listen to the voices was quite devastating as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to wrap up by asking you about

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<v Speaker 1>something you said at the top, and that is that

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<v Speaker 1>you've seen definitive empathy globally. Are you optimistic that will return.

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<v Speaker 2>I think for us to get back to that level

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<v Speaker 2>of empathy, the organizations like Crisis Group are going to

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<v Speaker 2>be crucial in explaining why it matters why you should

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<v Speaker 2>care about the crisises, not just the Gazas and the Ukraines,

0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:37.559
<v Speaker 2>which have a sort of a larger international peace and security,

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:41.959
<v Speaker 2>but for humanity's sake as well. So I worry that

0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:45.240
<v Speaker 2>it's going to be hard to regain that. I also say,

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:51.240
<v Speaker 2>thirty years ago liberal international order, the interventionist impulse that

0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 2>you saw for a number of Western countries. They are

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.120
<v Speaker 2>not necessarily on the front line in the way that

0:13:57.160 --> 0:14:00.200
<v Speaker 2>there are other actors that are involved as well. But

0:14:00.800 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 2>even journalists are facing a picarious moment in their ability

0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:07.960
<v Speaker 2>to get access. They're often blocked from being able to

0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.760
<v Speaker 2>bring those stories to you as well. So I think

0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.679
<v Speaker 2>even getting journalists to be able to do their work effectively,

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 2>that's going to be crucial to the empathy. But societies themselves,

0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.600
<v Speaker 2>societies that you'd often turn to for assistance, for aid,

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 2>for support also going through their own crisis is as well.

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 2>Some of these countries themselves require that aid to be

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 2>turned inwards as well. You know, you've got the poverty

0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:36.320
<v Speaker 2>in parts of the countries that we would often turn

0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:40.240
<v Speaker 2>to for assistance, I mean, rich advanced societies. They're going

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 2>through different levels of crisiss migration, populism, a cost of

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 2>living crisis, deficit crisis as well. More than any other time,

0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.520
<v Speaker 2>it's very clear to me that there is now an

0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.400
<v Speaker 2>overlap between the domestic of international. You have to be

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 2>able to explain to your domestic constituency why it matters

0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:02.280
<v Speaker 2>for you to be concerned about the fate of other

0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.320
<v Speaker 2>civilians caught in crisises elsewhere.

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.280
<v Speaker 1>I imagine someone in your position could be tempted to

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 1>despair looking at all that's happening around the world, and

0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 1>how do you forestall that from happening? What gives you

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.720
<v Speaker 1>grounds for optimism as you again survey the whole world

0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:19.840
<v Speaker 1>and how many conforts are taking place all over it.

0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:22.320
<v Speaker 2>Because I think in the end of the day, and

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.160
<v Speaker 2>it is the essence of crisis group that in every

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.400
<v Speaker 2>crisis there is a window of opportunity. The job of

0:15:28.440 --> 0:15:30.920
<v Speaker 2>crisis group is to latch onto those windows and oh

0:15:30.960 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 2>the door, and keep that door open, keep it open,

0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:37.160
<v Speaker 2>and maybe wide it as well. And that's what keeps

0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:41.640
<v Speaker 2>me hopeful because it's very easy to despair and that

0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 2>center of fatalism and you can't afford to have that.

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 2>And also just watching my colleagues as well, and it's

0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 2>a privilege to wake up every morning to one hundred

0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:55.400
<v Speaker 2>and fifty different people providing you with information, and not

0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 2>just information, but at the end of every piece of

0:15:57.720 --> 0:16:02.040
<v Speaker 2>information what they see as the the possibilities and just

0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:05.040
<v Speaker 2>the creativeness as well. And in the moment of despair

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:08.280
<v Speaker 2>and anxiety, that you have people who are willing to

0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 2>think through creatively what's possible. I don't have the right

0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:15.560
<v Speaker 2>therefore to despair basically as well.

0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.960
<v Speaker 1>This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerra.

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.040
<v Speaker 1>To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access

0:16:27.040 --> 0:16:30.440
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0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:34.280
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0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.600
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0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.240
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0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:41.800
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.