1 00:00:15,410 --> 00:00:15,890 Speaker 1: Pushkin. 2 00:00:24,930 --> 00:00:29,210 Speaker 2: Thomas Midgley Junior was born on College Hill in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, 3 00:00:29,370 --> 00:00:33,730 Speaker 2: May eighteenth, eighteen eighty nine. His father, Thomas Midgley Senior, 4 00:00:33,930 --> 00:00:37,010 Speaker 2: was a prolific inventor in a variety of fields, but 5 00:00:37,210 --> 00:00:40,530 Speaker 2: notably that of automobile times and his mother. 6 00:00:41,490 --> 00:00:45,890 Speaker 1: A eulogy for an inventor, a hero of industrial science 7 00:00:46,170 --> 00:00:50,770 Speaker 1: who changed the world, and who died tragically young, aged 8 00:00:51,090 --> 00:00:56,450 Speaker 1: just fifty five. Thomas Midgley Junior studied mechanical engineering, but 9 00:00:56,530 --> 00:00:59,890 Speaker 1: he was just as fascinated by chemistry. As a young 10 00:00:59,930 --> 00:01:04,170 Speaker 1: researcher employed by General Motors, Midgley took to carrying a 11 00:01:04,210 --> 00:01:07,370 Speaker 1: copy of the Periodic Table around in his pocket to 12 00:01:07,450 --> 00:01:11,210 Speaker 1: inform his quest for new ideas. By the end of 13 00:01:11,250 --> 00:01:16,490 Speaker 1: his life, Midgley had accumulated over one hundred patents. We're 14 00:01:16,530 --> 00:01:19,690 Speaker 1: going to hear about three of his inventions. 15 00:01:20,730 --> 00:01:24,130 Speaker 2: In nineteen sixteen, Midgley became a member of our research 16 00:01:24,130 --> 00:01:27,410 Speaker 2: staff and began then his long association with me and 17 00:01:27,490 --> 00:01:30,290 Speaker 2: his remarkably productive career in research. 18 00:01:30,690 --> 00:01:35,570 Speaker 1: The eulogist is Charles Boss Kettering, himself an inventor of 19 00:01:35,650 --> 00:01:39,850 Speaker 1: some renown. Kettering was Thomas Midgley's boss in the General 20 00:01:39,890 --> 00:01:45,050 Speaker 1: Motors Research department. He went on to become a lifelong friend, mentor, 21 00:01:45,370 --> 00:01:49,850 Speaker 1: and business associate as the two men built lucrative careers 22 00:01:49,890 --> 00:01:52,610 Speaker 1: with General Motors and the DuPont Corporation. 23 00:01:53,330 --> 00:01:54,610 Speaker 2: What do you want me to do next? 24 00:01:54,650 --> 00:01:55,010 Speaker 3: Boss? 25 00:01:55,850 --> 00:01:58,730 Speaker 2: That simple question and the answer to it turned out 26 00:01:58,730 --> 00:02:01,050 Speaker 2: to be the beginning of a great adventure in the 27 00:02:01,130 --> 00:02:02,970 Speaker 2: life of a most versatile man. 28 00:02:03,370 --> 00:02:08,090 Speaker 1: Versatile Indeed, the brain children of Thomas Midgley touched many 29 00:02:08,250 --> 00:02:12,970 Speaker 1: areas of life. Life. This pudgy, bespectacled inventor seemed to 30 00:02:13,170 --> 00:02:18,610 Speaker 1: personify the mid twentieth century ideal of progress, as summed 31 00:02:18,690 --> 00:02:23,130 Speaker 1: up by DuPont in their famous nineteen thirties advertising slogan 32 00:02:23,530 --> 00:02:28,650 Speaker 1: better things for better living, living through chemistry Hemistry. In 33 00:02:28,690 --> 00:02:34,010 Speaker 1: his eulogy, Boss Kettering runs through Midgley's long list of accomplishments. 34 00:02:34,770 --> 00:02:39,410 Speaker 1: President of the American Chemical Society, winner of the Nichols Medal, 35 00:02:39,770 --> 00:02:44,050 Speaker 1: the Perkin Medal, the Priestly Medal, the Willard Gibbs Medal, 36 00:02:44,530 --> 00:02:48,770 Speaker 1: the Longstreth Medal, honorary doctorates from the College of Wooster 37 00:02:49,570 --> 00:02:54,690 Speaker 1: and the Ohio State University. Kettering quotes the citation from 38 00:02:54,690 --> 00:02:55,610 Speaker 1: Ohio State. 39 00:02:56,250 --> 00:03:00,090 Speaker 2: Midgley contributed so greatly to more pleasant and efficient living. 40 00:03:00,690 --> 00:03:03,690 Speaker 2: He has made science a liberator, and we rejoice with 41 00:03:03,770 --> 00:03:06,770 Speaker 2: him at the satisfactions that must be his In seeing 42 00:03:06,810 --> 00:03:13,210 Speaker 2: the fruits of his labor, Asterity will acknowledge their permanent value. 43 00:03:13,770 --> 00:03:18,450 Speaker 1: Posterity alas, was not as kind to Midgley as his 44 00:03:18,610 --> 00:03:23,810 Speaker 1: many admirers had expected, but they were absolutely right to 45 00:03:23,930 --> 00:03:28,530 Speaker 1: say that he would change the world. He did, he 46 00:03:28,610 --> 00:03:36,050 Speaker 1: made it much much worse. I'm Tim Harford and you're 47 00:03:36,090 --> 00:04:08,050 Speaker 1: listening to cautionary tales? 48 00:04:16,370 --> 00:04:17,970 Speaker 2: What do you want me to do? An next bus? 49 00:04:18,650 --> 00:04:22,810 Speaker 1: One day, when Thomas Midgley asked that question of Charles Kettering, 50 00:04:23,130 --> 00:04:25,810 Speaker 1: the boss had a problem he wanted Midgley to solve. 51 00:04:26,250 --> 00:04:30,050 Speaker 1: The problem had to do with refrigeration. At the time, 52 00:04:30,490 --> 00:04:33,810 Speaker 1: people didn't have fridges at home. It was too dangerous. 53 00:04:34,490 --> 00:04:37,530 Speaker 1: The chemicals you needed for the cooling coils were either 54 00:04:37,610 --> 00:04:42,730 Speaker 1: toxic or flammable, so refrigeration was mainly used in industrial 55 00:04:42,770 --> 00:04:49,330 Speaker 1: settings by trained personnel. Even then, accidents were common. Kettering 56 00:04:49,490 --> 00:04:54,530 Speaker 1: wanted Midgley to invent away to cool things safely. Midgley 57 00:04:54,610 --> 00:04:58,930 Speaker 1: took the periodic table out of his pocket. He soon 58 00:04:59,170 --> 00:05:03,170 Speaker 1: zeroed in on fluorine as a promising element for creating 59 00:05:03,210 --> 00:05:07,290 Speaker 1: a compound that might have the right properties. As Kettering's 60 00:05:07,330 --> 00:05:08,970 Speaker 1: eulogy recalls. 61 00:05:09,370 --> 00:05:14,410 Speaker 2: He and his helpers prepared such a compound, dichloridy fluoromethane. 62 00:05:14,850 --> 00:05:17,690 Speaker 2: It proved to have just the properties required. It is 63 00:05:17,770 --> 00:05:22,130 Speaker 2: highly stable, non inflammable, and altogether without harmful effects on 64 00:05:22,250 --> 00:05:23,370 Speaker 2: man or animals. 65 00:05:25,010 --> 00:05:29,850 Speaker 1: Dichloro difluoromethane it did seem to be all together without 66 00:05:29,970 --> 00:05:34,570 Speaker 1: harmful effects. Midgeley tested this by replacing all the nitrogen 67 00:05:34,650 --> 00:05:40,930 Speaker 1: in air with dichlorodifluoromethane and seeing what happened to animals 68 00:05:40,930 --> 00:05:45,010 Speaker 1: who breathed it in. Happily, for the animals, they were 69 00:05:45,010 --> 00:05:49,970 Speaker 1: completely fine. Midgeley wasn't just an inventor, He was a showman. 70 00:05:50,450 --> 00:05:54,170 Speaker 1: He presented his new product in a dramatic lecture to 71 00:05:54,210 --> 00:05:59,450 Speaker 1: the American Chemical Society. Midgeley lights a candle. He produces 72 00:05:59,490 --> 00:06:05,050 Speaker 1: a container of di chlorodfluoromethane. He sucks it in a long, 73 00:06:05,530 --> 00:06:13,290 Speaker 1: deep gulp, filling his lungs. Then slowly and gently he 74 00:06:13,450 --> 00:06:19,490 Speaker 1: breathes out over the candle. The flame goes out. It's 75 00:06:19,650 --> 00:06:26,010 Speaker 1: a bravura performance. Dichlorodifluoromethane belongs to a class of chemicals 76 00:06:26,050 --> 00:06:33,210 Speaker 1: called CFCs, or chlorofluora carbons. Under Midgley's guidance, General Motors 77 00:06:33,210 --> 00:06:36,450 Speaker 1: and the DuPont Corporation start to produce a whole range 78 00:06:36,490 --> 00:06:40,170 Speaker 1: of CFCs. They give them the trade name free On. 79 00:06:40,930 --> 00:06:45,050 Speaker 1: Thanks to these new non hazardous coolants, people soon had 80 00:06:45,090 --> 00:06:48,690 Speaker 1: refrigerators in their own homes. That was a game changer. 81 00:06:49,450 --> 00:06:53,330 Speaker 1: Food stayed fresh. The housewives of America could spend less 82 00:06:53,370 --> 00:06:58,530 Speaker 1: time endlessly shopping for groceries. Food poisoning was easier to avoid, 83 00:06:59,010 --> 00:07:03,370 Speaker 1: and it wasn't just fridges. Air conditioners too. Even better, 84 00:07:03,690 --> 00:07:07,570 Speaker 1: it soon turned out that CFCs had uses beyond cooling. 85 00:07:08,090 --> 00:07:13,330 Speaker 1: They were ideal for making aerosol sprays, insect repellance, air freshness, 86 00:07:13,450 --> 00:07:18,770 Speaker 1: hair spray deodorance. It was just like DuPont said, better 87 00:07:18,850 --> 00:07:25,690 Speaker 1: things for better living through chemistry. In the summer of 88 00:07:25,810 --> 00:07:31,290 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy three, nearly three decades after Thomas Midgley's untimely death, 89 00:07:31,690 --> 00:07:36,410 Speaker 1: a chemistry professor named Sherwood Roland welcomes a new postdoctoral 90 00:07:36,450 --> 00:07:41,290 Speaker 1: researcher to his team at the University of California, Irvine. 91 00:07:41,410 --> 00:07:45,170 Speaker 1: Mario Molina is from Mexico. He's thirty years old, and 92 00:07:45,330 --> 00:07:48,570 Speaker 1: he needs Professor Roland to give him a project to 93 00:07:48,650 --> 00:07:52,890 Speaker 1: work on. Roland recalls something he heard over coffee at 94 00:07:52,930 --> 00:07:57,250 Speaker 1: a conference the previous year about a precise new way 95 00:07:57,370 --> 00:08:03,290 Speaker 1: of measuring trace gases in the atmosphere, gases like dichlorodifluoromethane. 96 00:08:03,850 --> 00:08:06,410 Speaker 1: It turns out that CFCs are present in the air 97 00:08:06,530 --> 00:08:10,410 Speaker 1: around US at two hundred and thirty parts per trillion. 98 00:08:10,810 --> 00:08:14,370 Speaker 1: That's like detecting a drop of gin in a swimming 99 00:08:14,370 --> 00:08:18,570 Speaker 1: pool of tonic. Roland is intrigued to hear that, not 100 00:08:18,690 --> 00:08:21,890 Speaker 1: because the amount sounds so small to him, but because 101 00:08:22,090 --> 00:08:25,290 Speaker 1: it sounds so big. He knows that it's only a 102 00:08:25,330 --> 00:08:29,570 Speaker 1: few decades since CFCs started to be manufactured on an 103 00:08:29,610 --> 00:08:33,970 Speaker 1: industrial scale, not much more than that dropful can ever 104 00:08:34,050 --> 00:08:38,730 Speaker 1: have been produced. Roland is a radio chemist. He studies 105 00:08:38,810 --> 00:08:43,210 Speaker 1: how particles react and decay. Most chemicals break down in 106 00:08:43,250 --> 00:08:47,850 Speaker 1: the environment sooner or later that CFCs just seemed to 107 00:08:47,850 --> 00:08:52,570 Speaker 1: be hanging around, So he makes a suggestion to Mario Molina, 108 00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:57,850 Speaker 1: why don't you look into CFCs. Molina recalls, we thought 109 00:08:57,890 --> 00:09:02,010 Speaker 1: it would be a nice, interesting academic exercise. We both 110 00:09:02,050 --> 00:09:05,130 Speaker 1: knew that these CFCs were rather stable, so there was 111 00:09:05,170 --> 00:09:08,330 Speaker 1: nothing obvious that would damage them soon after they'd be released. 112 00:09:09,170 --> 00:09:11,130 Speaker 1: That's about as much as I knew at the time. 113 00:09:11,650 --> 00:09:15,370 Speaker 1: If CFCs aren't interacting much with anything in the atmosphere 114 00:09:15,370 --> 00:09:20,050 Speaker 1: close to Earth, Molina reasoned, they'll eventually drift upwards to 115 00:09:20,090 --> 00:09:24,530 Speaker 1: the stratosphere, where the air is thinner. It would take decades, 116 00:09:24,810 --> 00:09:28,770 Speaker 1: but they'd get there. When they did, they'd encounter more 117 00:09:29,010 --> 00:09:33,690 Speaker 1: ultraviolet BE waves from the Sun, and maybe that would 118 00:09:33,690 --> 00:09:37,330 Speaker 1: cause the CFCs to break down. Because UVB waves are 119 00:09:37,370 --> 00:09:41,330 Speaker 1: pretty destructive. They're the main reason why too much sunshine 120 00:09:41,330 --> 00:09:44,690 Speaker 1: can give you skin cancer. In fact, if the Earth 121 00:09:44,730 --> 00:09:49,130 Speaker 1: had no protection from UVB radiation, life on land might 122 00:09:49,210 --> 00:09:56,290 Speaker 1: not be possible. What does protect the Earth the ozone layer. 123 00:09:56,970 --> 00:10:00,610 Speaker 1: Ozone is a gas made from oxygen atoms up in 124 00:10:00,650 --> 00:10:04,450 Speaker 1: the stratosphere. A thin layer of ozone blocks most of 125 00:10:04,490 --> 00:10:08,890 Speaker 1: the Sun's UVB radiation. Mario Molina sat down to work 126 00:10:08,930 --> 00:10:12,090 Speaker 1: out what would happen to a CFC molecule when it 127 00:10:12,170 --> 00:10:15,610 Speaker 1: drifts up to the stratosphere. It would get hit by 128 00:10:15,610 --> 00:10:19,050 Speaker 1: a wave of UVB radiation that would knock off the 129 00:10:19,130 --> 00:10:23,570 Speaker 1: chlorine atom. The chlorine atom would soon meet an ozone molecule. 130 00:10:24,010 --> 00:10:27,530 Speaker 1: When it did, it would split the ozone apart and 131 00:10:27,650 --> 00:10:32,290 Speaker 1: form oxygen and chlorine monoxide instead. But that's not the 132 00:10:32,410 --> 00:10:36,330 Speaker 1: end of the story. Because chlorine monoxide isn't stable. It 133 00:10:36,370 --> 00:10:40,290 Speaker 1: breaks down quickly. That frees up the chlorine atom again 134 00:10:40,810 --> 00:10:45,170 Speaker 1: to take out another ozone molecule, and the cycle repeats, 135 00:10:45,770 --> 00:10:50,730 Speaker 1: chlorine atoms pinballing around the stratosphere, popping ozone as they go. 136 00:10:54,330 --> 00:10:58,170 Speaker 1: Melina was intrigued by this, but not alarmed. After all, 137 00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:01,890 Speaker 1: there weren't that many CFC molecules in the atmosphere. It 138 00:11:01,930 --> 00:11:04,650 Speaker 1: was a drop in a swimming pool. They couldn't possibly 139 00:11:04,690 --> 00:11:08,330 Speaker 1: destroy enough of the ozone layer to cause a problem, 140 00:11:08,610 --> 00:11:13,490 Speaker 1: could they. Molina got the data showing how much CFC 141 00:11:13,570 --> 00:11:17,050 Speaker 1: gas had been produced. He sat down with a pencil, 142 00:11:17,530 --> 00:11:22,010 Speaker 1: paper and a calculator and did the sums. Oh, that 143 00:11:22,050 --> 00:11:24,970 Speaker 1: can't be right. He checked them. He checked them again, 144 00:11:25,170 --> 00:11:29,010 Speaker 1: and again. He checked them a dozen times. That night. 145 00:11:29,450 --> 00:11:32,690 Speaker 1: When he got home, Molina's wife asked how his day 146 00:11:32,730 --> 00:11:37,290 Speaker 1: had been. The work's going well, Molina said, but it 147 00:11:37,290 --> 00:11:48,530 Speaker 1: looks like the end of the world. Cautionary tales will 148 00:11:48,570 --> 00:11:57,930 Speaker 1: be back in a moment. At the University of California, Irvine, 149 00:11:58,290 --> 00:12:01,850 Speaker 1: Maria and Melina tracks down Sherwood Roland and may have 150 00:12:01,850 --> 00:12:07,890 Speaker 1: found something important. Roland checks Molina's sums. He checks them again. 151 00:12:08,090 --> 00:12:11,890 Speaker 1: That can't be right, but it was. The CFCs drifting 152 00:12:12,050 --> 00:12:16,050 Speaker 1: slowly up towards the stratosphere were a ticking time bomb. 153 00:12:16,890 --> 00:12:21,250 Speaker 1: Barely forty years had passed since DuPont started to manufacture 154 00:12:21,290 --> 00:12:25,650 Speaker 1: their CFCs under the free On brand on an industrial scale. 155 00:12:26,530 --> 00:12:29,690 Speaker 1: That wasn't long enough to expect any obvious impacts yet, 156 00:12:30,650 --> 00:12:33,970 Speaker 1: but more and more CFCs were being produced every year. 157 00:12:34,970 --> 00:12:38,770 Speaker 1: If that continued, what might it mean by say, the 158 00:12:38,810 --> 00:12:43,450 Speaker 1: middle of the twenty first century. Molina and Roland calculated 159 00:12:43,450 --> 00:12:47,690 Speaker 1: that up to half the ozone layer could disappear. As 160 00:12:47,730 --> 00:12:50,930 Speaker 1: Molina had put it, it looked like the end of 161 00:12:50,930 --> 00:12:55,530 Speaker 1: the world. The two scientists wrote up their research. They 162 00:12:55,570 --> 00:12:59,290 Speaker 1: published it in Nature in the summer of nineteen seventy four, 163 00:13:00,290 --> 00:13:05,050 Speaker 1: and hardly anyone noticed. A few reporters got in touch 164 00:13:05,130 --> 00:13:09,050 Speaker 1: from local newspapers. That was nice, but this wasn't really 165 00:13:09,170 --> 00:13:14,970 Speaker 1: a local story. An executive from DuPont phoned Sherwood Roland, I. 166 00:13:14,930 --> 00:13:17,050 Speaker 3: Read your paper. I was appalled. 167 00:13:17,650 --> 00:13:20,770 Speaker 2: Thanks for getting in touch. It is appalling. 168 00:13:20,730 --> 00:13:23,730 Speaker 3: Throughout your paper. You talk about Freon. Don't you know 169 00:13:23,850 --> 00:13:27,330 Speaker 3: that Freon's are DuPont registered brand name. You need to 170 00:13:27,370 --> 00:13:31,610 Speaker 3: refer to CFC's generically, not Freeon specifically. I have to 171 00:13:31,650 --> 00:13:33,650 Speaker 3: tell you we take this very seriously. 172 00:13:34,730 --> 00:13:37,210 Speaker 2: Uh oh okay. 173 00:13:38,050 --> 00:13:42,690 Speaker 1: Roland and Molina were dispirited. They'd discovered the end of 174 00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:47,650 Speaker 1: the world and nobody cared. They looked for another opportunity 175 00:13:47,690 --> 00:13:51,490 Speaker 1: to get attention. The Annual meeting of the American Chemical 176 00:13:51,530 --> 00:13:55,410 Speaker 1: Society was coming up, the very same event that Thomas 177 00:13:55,450 --> 00:13:59,370 Speaker 1: Midgley had wowed forty four years earlier by filling his 178 00:13:59,450 --> 00:14:04,850 Speaker 1: lungs with die chlorod fluomethane and softly extinguishing a candle. 179 00:14:06,330 --> 00:14:10,010 Speaker 1: Roland and Melina submitted their paper to the annual meeting, 180 00:14:10,490 --> 00:14:13,730 Speaker 1: but lots of papers get submitted, so it's the job 181 00:14:13,770 --> 00:14:17,770 Speaker 1: of the American Chemical Society's news manager to decide which 182 00:14:17,850 --> 00:14:23,090 Speaker 1: papers to publicize. Her name was Dorothy Smith. She decided 183 00:14:23,130 --> 00:14:27,770 Speaker 1: to go big, much to the displeasure of DuPont. 184 00:14:28,770 --> 00:14:31,890 Speaker 3: Hello, I've just seen your press release. You're making a 185 00:14:31,930 --> 00:14:34,210 Speaker 3: big thing of this paper on CFC's and. 186 00:14:34,170 --> 00:14:36,850 Speaker 4: Ozone yes, it seems important. 187 00:14:37,410 --> 00:14:39,650 Speaker 3: We think it's an insignificant story. 188 00:14:39,890 --> 00:14:41,530 Speaker 4: A lot of people are interested. 189 00:14:42,690 --> 00:14:46,970 Speaker 1: Dorothy Smith stood her ground. She put Roland and Melina 190 00:14:47,170 --> 00:14:50,650 Speaker 1: on stage at a press conference, and finally their work 191 00:14:50,770 --> 00:14:55,410 Speaker 1: started to gain some traction. Environmental activists called for a 192 00:14:55,450 --> 00:14:59,210 Speaker 1: ban on CFCs. A few politicians took up the cause, 193 00:15:00,090 --> 00:15:04,650 Speaker 1: but the industry fought back. Yes, the scientific theory seemed sound, 194 00:15:04,730 --> 00:15:10,490 Speaker 1: but that's all it was theory. No ozone depletion has 195 00:15:10,570 --> 00:15:15,450 Speaker 1: ever been detected, despite the most sophisticated analysis. All ozone 196 00:15:15,490 --> 00:15:19,210 Speaker 1: depletion figures to date are computer projections based on a 197 00:15:19,290 --> 00:15:24,970 Speaker 1: series of uncertain assumptions. The initial burst of attention slowly 198 00:15:25,010 --> 00:15:29,570 Speaker 1: began to fade. Roland and Molina kept speaking out that 199 00:15:29,730 --> 00:15:34,570 Speaker 1: fewer and fewer people were bothering to listen. Progress towards 200 00:15:34,610 --> 00:15:38,970 Speaker 1: banning CFC's ground to a halt. It was clear that 201 00:15:39,010 --> 00:15:43,090 Speaker 1: only one thing might reboot the interest of the world's governments, 202 00:15:43,770 --> 00:15:48,130 Speaker 1: hard evidence of damage to the ozone layer. But if 203 00:15:48,170 --> 00:15:52,090 Speaker 1: it took decades for CFCs to drift up to the stratosphere, 204 00:15:52,530 --> 00:15:55,610 Speaker 1: the first ones to be manufactured would only just be 205 00:15:55,690 --> 00:16:00,370 Speaker 1: making it there. Would the evidence come in time to 206 00:16:00,490 --> 00:16:08,650 Speaker 1: avert disaster. We'll pick up the story of CFC's and 207 00:16:08,690 --> 00:16:13,730 Speaker 1: the oz But I promised you three inventions by Thomas Midgley, 208 00:16:14,170 --> 00:16:18,410 Speaker 1: and as we'll see, those three inventions have a theme. 209 00:16:18,970 --> 00:16:25,170 Speaker 1: That theme on anticipated consequences. I mentioned that Thomas Midgley 210 00:16:25,250 --> 00:16:31,330 Speaker 1: died young. How did he die exactly? Bossquttering's eulogy tiptoed 211 00:16:31,370 --> 00:16:33,170 Speaker 1: around that delicate question. 212 00:16:33,730 --> 00:16:36,890 Speaker 2: In the early fall of nineteen forty, Midgley was struck 213 00:16:36,930 --> 00:16:40,610 Speaker 2: by an acute attack of poliomylidis, which deprived him of 214 00:16:40,650 --> 00:16:43,290 Speaker 2: the use of his legs and made him a semi invalid. 215 00:16:44,050 --> 00:16:48,210 Speaker 2: Middley died unexpectedly on November two, nineteen forty four, at 216 00:16:48,210 --> 00:16:49,530 Speaker 2: the age of fifty five. 217 00:16:50,570 --> 00:16:54,610 Speaker 1: Confined to his bed by polio. Midgley had applied his 218 00:16:54,730 --> 00:16:59,010 Speaker 1: inventive mind to devising a series of pulleys and ropes 219 00:16:59,090 --> 00:17:03,530 Speaker 1: by which he could move himself around. He died unexpectedly 220 00:17:03,970 --> 00:17:07,130 Speaker 1: when a rope in this device got wrapped around his 221 00:17:07,250 --> 00:17:14,650 Speaker 1: neck and strangled him. So one of Mitchelly's inventions had 222 00:17:14,770 --> 00:17:18,130 Speaker 1: ended up killing him, and another was going to destroy 223 00:17:18,170 --> 00:17:21,890 Speaker 1: the ozone layer and fry the planet. It's fair to 224 00:17:21,930 --> 00:17:27,210 Speaker 1: say that unanticipated consequences is the right description for both 225 00:17:27,290 --> 00:17:33,090 Speaker 1: these inventions. The phrase unanticipated consequences was coined a few 226 00:17:33,250 --> 00:17:37,530 Speaker 1: years before Mitchelly's death in a much cited article by 227 00:17:37,530 --> 00:17:43,130 Speaker 1: the great American sociologist Robert K. Murton. That article was 228 00:17:43,130 --> 00:17:50,770 Speaker 1: called The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action. Throughout history, 229 00:17:50,970 --> 00:17:56,650 Speaker 1: Merton argued, philosophers have grappled with the idea of unanticipated consequences, 230 00:17:57,130 --> 00:18:01,130 Speaker 1: using various different words to describe it, but nobody had 231 00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:07,730 Speaker 1: thought systematically about how unanticipated consequences come about. Merton set 232 00:18:07,810 --> 00:18:11,370 Speaker 1: himself the task of categorizing all the possible ways in 233 00:18:11,410 --> 00:18:15,290 Speaker 1: which our actions might backfire. Simple error is one way 234 00:18:15,330 --> 00:18:18,850 Speaker 1: we might get unanticipated consequences. We think we know what 235 00:18:18,890 --> 00:18:23,170 Speaker 1: will happen, but we're wrong. Another is what Merton called 236 00:18:23,450 --> 00:18:28,610 Speaker 1: the imperious immediacy of interest. Roughly speaking, we're so keen 237 00:18:28,690 --> 00:18:31,410 Speaker 1: to solve some pressing problem that we don't much care 238 00:18:31,490 --> 00:18:35,290 Speaker 1: what else might happen down the line. And then there's 239 00:18:35,610 --> 00:18:38,610 Speaker 1: ignorance when we don't have the knowledge that would be 240 00:18:38,690 --> 00:18:43,290 Speaker 1: necessary to anticipate what might happen. In some cases, that 241 00:18:43,410 --> 00:18:46,010 Speaker 1: might be because we haven't put in the time and 242 00:18:46,210 --> 00:18:49,530 Speaker 1: energy that would be necessary to get that knowledge, or 243 00:18:49,610 --> 00:18:52,770 Speaker 1: maybe the situation is so novel we can't imagine what 244 00:18:52,890 --> 00:18:56,250 Speaker 1: we might need to know. That's a good description of 245 00:18:56,250 --> 00:18:59,930 Speaker 1: what happened with CFCs. Midgley had tried to get some 246 00:19:00,090 --> 00:19:05,650 Speaker 1: knowledge about potential risks by making animals breathe in dichlorodifluomethane, 247 00:19:06,250 --> 00:19:10,570 Speaker 1: but the interaction with ozone came completely out of the blue. 248 00:19:10,770 --> 00:19:16,450 Speaker 1: This phrase of Robert K. Merton, unanticipated consequences has a twist. 249 00:19:16,890 --> 00:19:19,610 Speaker 1: To find out what it is, we need to turn 250 00:19:19,690 --> 00:19:25,010 Speaker 1: to the third of Thomas Midgley's disastrous brain waves, arguably 251 00:19:25,530 --> 00:19:30,450 Speaker 1: the worst of all. It came again from that fateful question, 252 00:19:31,370 --> 00:19:35,090 Speaker 1: what do you want me to do next? Boss? This time, 253 00:19:35,370 --> 00:19:40,930 Speaker 1: the problem Charles Kettering wanted Midgley to solve was engine knock. 254 00:19:42,170 --> 00:19:44,650 Speaker 1: When you read your car and it sounds like you're 255 00:19:44,730 --> 00:19:49,210 Speaker 1: firing a machine gun. It's not a common sound nowadays, 256 00:19:49,250 --> 00:19:53,330 Speaker 1: but it blighted the lives of early motorists. General motors 257 00:19:53,370 --> 00:19:56,690 Speaker 1: wanted to invent a product that would stop it, but 258 00:19:56,890 --> 00:20:01,090 Speaker 1: nobody even understood why it happened. Thomas Midgley worked it out. 259 00:20:01,570 --> 00:20:05,250 Speaker 1: In an internal combustion engine, A piston in a cylinder 260 00:20:05,610 --> 00:20:09,690 Speaker 1: compresses a mixture of air and fuel until a spark 261 00:20:09,770 --> 00:20:14,010 Speaker 1: plug ignites it. Engine knock happens when the mixture explodes 262 00:20:14,450 --> 00:20:18,770 Speaker 1: before the piston has compressed it fully. It's not just 263 00:20:18,810 --> 00:20:25,210 Speaker 1: an unpleasant noise, it can damage the engine. But where 264 00:20:25,210 --> 00:20:28,770 Speaker 1: would you even start to look for a solution? Ketoing 265 00:20:28,890 --> 00:20:30,450 Speaker 1: and Midgeley talked it over. 266 00:20:31,370 --> 00:20:34,330 Speaker 2: We thought that maybe if the fuel were colored red, 267 00:20:34,490 --> 00:20:38,170 Speaker 2: it would absorb more radiant heat and evaporate more completely, 268 00:20:38,570 --> 00:20:42,690 Speaker 2: thus preventing the rough combustion. This theory came to us then, 269 00:20:42,890 --> 00:20:44,930 Speaker 2: because we both happened to know that the leaves of 270 00:20:45,010 --> 00:20:48,250 Speaker 2: the trailing arbuddhis are red on the back, and that 271 00:20:48,330 --> 00:20:50,610 Speaker 2: they grow and bloom under the snow. 272 00:20:51,730 --> 00:20:55,050 Speaker 1: Midgley went to a chemist's shop and brought iodine. He 273 00:20:55,130 --> 00:20:58,010 Speaker 1: put the iodine in some fuel, which turned it red, 274 00:20:58,650 --> 00:21:03,210 Speaker 1: and he ran the engine no knock. Midgeley and Kettering 275 00:21:03,370 --> 00:21:06,810 Speaker 1: were astonished, But was it really the color red that 276 00:21:06,930 --> 00:21:10,650 Speaker 1: was stopping the knock. Midgeley try other ways of dyeing fuel, 277 00:21:11,130 --> 00:21:14,970 Speaker 1: but with no success. Apparently it wasn't the red color, 278 00:21:15,330 --> 00:21:18,250 Speaker 1: but something else about the iodine. The leaves of the 279 00:21:18,290 --> 00:21:23,330 Speaker 1: trailing arbutus had been a red herring. Midgley then tried 280 00:21:23,610 --> 00:21:29,090 Speaker 1: ethyl iodide, which has iodine but no color. It stopped 281 00:21:29,090 --> 00:21:35,130 Speaker 1: the knock just as well. Unfortunately, it also corroded the engine. Underterreed, 282 00:21:35,410 --> 00:21:39,050 Speaker 1: Midgeley pulled the periodic table from his pocket and began 283 00:21:39,130 --> 00:21:40,410 Speaker 1: to work his way through it. 284 00:21:41,090 --> 00:21:44,930 Speaker 2: Many anti Knoch agents were discovered along the way, compounds 285 00:21:44,930 --> 00:21:50,530 Speaker 2: of iodine, of nitrogen, of phosphorus, of arsenic, of antimony, 286 00:21:50,890 --> 00:21:56,250 Speaker 2: of selenium, of tillurium, But everyone had some limitation or 287 00:21:56,330 --> 00:21:59,770 Speaker 2: shortcoming which prevented it from being used in a practical way. 288 00:22:00,850 --> 00:22:05,730 Speaker 1: Eventually, Thomas Midgley's perseverance paid off. He discovered something that 289 00:22:05,810 --> 00:22:10,370 Speaker 1: he could add to gasoline that would stop engine without 290 00:22:10,890 --> 00:22:16,370 Speaker 1: damaging the engine, tetra ethyl lead. Thomas Midley had invented 291 00:22:17,010 --> 00:22:23,450 Speaker 1: leaded gasoline because of Midgeley's invention. I'm about five iq 292 00:22:23,770 --> 00:22:27,770 Speaker 1: points stupider than I would otherwise have been, and so 293 00:22:27,850 --> 00:22:30,650 Speaker 1: are you if you're around my age or older, because 294 00:22:30,890 --> 00:22:34,770 Speaker 1: you too, will have spent your childhood inhaling fumes of 295 00:22:34,850 --> 00:22:39,130 Speaker 1: leaded gasoline from car exhausts. The air pollution messed up 296 00:22:39,170 --> 00:22:42,810 Speaker 1: brain development for whole generations of kids, and it caused 297 00:22:42,850 --> 00:22:47,890 Speaker 1: cancers and heart disease and strokes. It's estimated that leaded 298 00:22:47,930 --> 00:22:54,530 Speaker 1: gasoline hastened tens of millions of deaths. Leaded gasoline completes 299 00:22:54,650 --> 00:22:59,570 Speaker 1: an astonishing trifector. Thomas Midgley invented a rope and pulley 300 00:22:59,610 --> 00:23:03,250 Speaker 1: device that killed him, an additive for fuel that killed 301 00:23:03,290 --> 00:23:06,330 Speaker 1: lots of other people, and a refrigerant that was on 302 00:23:06,490 --> 00:23:11,210 Speaker 1: course to wipe out life on earth all together. How 303 00:23:11,450 --> 00:23:23,370 Speaker 1: unlucky can one man be? That luck isn't the whole story. 304 00:23:24,170 --> 00:23:28,130 Speaker 1: In the early nineteen eighties, the radio chemist Sherwood Rowland 305 00:23:28,250 --> 00:23:31,770 Speaker 1: and his colleague Mario Molina kept on talking about the 306 00:23:31,850 --> 00:23:36,370 Speaker 1: danger of CFC's to the ozone layer. Nobody wanted to listen. 307 00:23:36,970 --> 00:23:39,730 Speaker 1: Roland became more and more exasperated. 308 00:23:39,930 --> 00:23:42,250 Speaker 2: What's the use of having developed a science well enough 309 00:23:42,250 --> 00:23:45,850 Speaker 2: to make predictions if in the end all we're willing 310 00:23:45,890 --> 00:23:47,810 Speaker 2: to do is stand around and wait for them to 311 00:23:47,810 --> 00:23:48,850 Speaker 2: come true. 312 00:23:48,930 --> 00:23:52,810 Speaker 1: The predictions, however, were all too easy for the industry 313 00:23:52,850 --> 00:23:58,330 Speaker 1: to dismiss. Remember the line from DuPont All ozone depletion 314 00:23:58,450 --> 00:24:02,610 Speaker 1: figures to date are computer projections based on a series 315 00:24:02,650 --> 00:24:08,290 Speaker 1: of uncertain assumptions. Only actual evidence of damage to the 316 00:24:08,330 --> 00:24:12,410 Speaker 1: ozone layer would get CFCs back on the agenda, but 317 00:24:12,490 --> 00:24:15,690 Speaker 1: the evidence would be hard to come by. The first 318 00:24:15,730 --> 00:24:19,690 Speaker 1: CFCs to be produced decades earlier would only just have 319 00:24:19,770 --> 00:24:23,050 Speaker 1: reached the stratosphere. If they were starting to reduce the 320 00:24:23,130 --> 00:24:26,410 Speaker 1: levels of ozone, that might be hard to see for 321 00:24:26,490 --> 00:24:31,690 Speaker 1: a couple of reasons. First, ozone levels fluctuate naturally. Second, 322 00:24:32,090 --> 00:24:35,050 Speaker 1: there are different ways to measure ozone from the ground, 323 00:24:35,130 --> 00:24:39,570 Speaker 1: from satellites, from special instruments tied to helium balloons, which 324 00:24:39,610 --> 00:24:44,370 Speaker 1: were most accurate, No one was entirely sure. Tantalizing hints 325 00:24:44,370 --> 00:24:49,130 Speaker 1: of evidence began to emerge. Some Japanese researchers sent balloons 326 00:24:49,170 --> 00:24:53,530 Speaker 1: to the stratosphere. The ozone readings came back worryingly low 327 00:24:54,010 --> 00:24:57,130 Speaker 1: that you really needed a long term series of data 328 00:24:57,170 --> 00:25:00,610 Speaker 1: points to establish there was a trend. The Japanese team 329 00:25:00,650 --> 00:25:05,770 Speaker 1: didn't have that, but someone else did. For twenty five years, 330 00:25:06,050 --> 00:25:11,170 Speaker 1: an obscure organization called the British Antarctic Survey had been 331 00:25:11,290 --> 00:25:14,890 Speaker 1: toiling away on a shoe string budget, sending researchers to 332 00:25:14,930 --> 00:25:19,250 Speaker 1: a remote outpost in Antarctica to measure all sorts of things. 333 00:25:19,890 --> 00:25:23,170 Speaker 1: They weren't looking for anything in particular, They just liked 334 00:25:23,170 --> 00:25:26,250 Speaker 1: to collect data. In case it ever happened to show 335 00:25:26,290 --> 00:25:31,890 Speaker 1: anything interesting. For twenty five years, it never had. Now, 336 00:25:32,010 --> 00:25:36,530 Speaker 1: in the early nineteen eighties, it did. The ozone measurements 337 00:25:36,530 --> 00:25:40,370 Speaker 1: were all over the place. The researchers suspected that their 338 00:25:40,410 --> 00:25:44,250 Speaker 1: instruments had gone haywire. They send new ones to Antarctica, 339 00:25:44,690 --> 00:25:48,210 Speaker 1: but the data came back the same. At first, it 340 00:25:48,290 --> 00:25:51,770 Speaker 1: seemed random, but when the researchers looked more closely, they 341 00:25:51,810 --> 00:25:55,330 Speaker 1: realized there was a pattern to the unusually low readings, 342 00:25:55,810 --> 00:26:00,570 Speaker 1: a pattern related to the seasons, a pattern that reactions 343 00:26:00,570 --> 00:26:06,210 Speaker 1: with chlorine could plausibly explain. NASA's satellites had also picked 344 00:26:06,290 --> 00:26:10,930 Speaker 1: up some surprisingly low readings over the Antarctic solo. The 345 00:26:10,970 --> 00:26:16,050 Speaker 1: computers had initially thrown them out as obvious anomalies. Now 346 00:26:16,090 --> 00:26:19,090 Speaker 1: it was clear that something was happening. There was still 347 00:26:19,170 --> 00:26:22,730 Speaker 1: room to doubt. Why was it really a chemical reaction 348 00:26:23,010 --> 00:26:27,930 Speaker 1: caused by chlorofluorocarbons, or was it solar activities or wind 349 00:26:28,850 --> 00:26:32,250 Speaker 1: There was only one way to be sure. NASA rushed 350 00:26:32,250 --> 00:26:35,370 Speaker 1: to put together a team of scientists and flew them 351 00:26:35,410 --> 00:26:38,890 Speaker 1: to Antarctica. In charge of the mission was thirty year 352 00:26:38,930 --> 00:26:44,410 Speaker 1: old Dr Susan Solomon, an atmospheric chemist. Solomon had never 353 00:26:44,450 --> 00:26:47,770 Speaker 1: been to Antarctica before, and she didn't have the right equipment. 354 00:26:48,410 --> 00:26:51,730 Speaker 1: Her team had brought instruments to analyze light from the Moon, 355 00:26:52,130 --> 00:26:54,250 Speaker 1: but they hadn't had time to build a tracking device 356 00:26:54,330 --> 00:26:58,330 Speaker 1: to focus the Moon's rays. Instead, someone had to sit 357 00:26:58,490 --> 00:27:01,810 Speaker 1: on the laboratory roof at night holding a mirror at 358 00:27:01,930 --> 00:27:05,450 Speaker 1: just the right angle. The first time Solomon took the 359 00:27:05,530 --> 00:27:10,610 Speaker 1: roof shift, she squinted to direct the mirror's reflect found 360 00:27:10,690 --> 00:27:14,850 Speaker 1: that her eye had frozen shut. For the results of 361 00:27:14,890 --> 00:27:20,290 Speaker 1: the experiments pointed only in one direction. On October the twentieth, 362 00:27:20,410 --> 00:27:24,530 Speaker 1: nineteen eighty six, journalists gathered in Washington, d C. To 363 00:27:24,570 --> 00:27:29,330 Speaker 1: hear Solomon relay her team's preliminary findings over a crackly 364 00:27:29,410 --> 00:27:31,250 Speaker 1: satellite link from Antarctica. 365 00:27:32,570 --> 00:27:35,930 Speaker 5: At present, we have not conclusively established the cause. 366 00:27:35,690 --> 00:27:36,570 Speaker 3: Of the oath on whole. 367 00:27:37,050 --> 00:27:41,490 Speaker 5: However, we have strong evidence against theories that upward wins 368 00:27:41,650 --> 00:27:45,490 Speaker 5: or high solar activities caused the deplete it. We suspect 369 00:27:45,530 --> 00:27:49,610 Speaker 5: a chemical process is fundamentally responsible for the formation of 370 00:27:49,650 --> 00:27:50,010 Speaker 5: the whole. 371 00:27:51,210 --> 00:27:57,210 Speaker 1: Solomon was right. More experiments confirmed it. The world's leaders 372 00:27:57,410 --> 00:28:02,010 Speaker 1: acted with commendable speed. In nineteen eighty seven, they agreed 373 00:28:02,090 --> 00:28:07,610 Speaker 1: the Montreal Protocol to phase out CFC's Sherwood Rowland and 374 00:28:07,690 --> 00:28:11,890 Speaker 1: Mario Molina share and Nobel Prize. The end of the 375 00:28:11,930 --> 00:28:18,010 Speaker 1: world was averted. By now, the impacts of leaded gasoline 376 00:28:18,010 --> 00:28:22,010 Speaker 1: on human health were equally plain to see. Governments around 377 00:28:22,050 --> 00:28:26,450 Speaker 1: the world were banning that too, albeit more slowly. As 378 00:28:26,450 --> 00:28:32,090 Speaker 1: for Thomas Midgley, well with hindsight, Boss Ketowing's eulogy sounds 379 00:28:32,130 --> 00:28:32,850 Speaker 1: a little different. 380 00:28:33,450 --> 00:28:37,570 Speaker 2: Midgeley contributed so greatly to more pleasant and efficient living. 381 00:28:38,330 --> 00:28:44,130 Speaker 1: So he did. Safe refrigerators, air assaults, smoothly running gas engines, 382 00:28:44,530 --> 00:28:51,690 Speaker 1: pleasant and efficient, just deadly too. Seventy years after Ketoing's eulogy, 383 00:28:52,050 --> 00:28:56,450 Speaker 1: the New Scientist looked back on Midgeley's life, memorably describing 384 00:28:56,530 --> 00:29:01,850 Speaker 1: him as a one man environmental disaster, far from the 385 00:29:01,890 --> 00:29:05,650 Speaker 1: epitome of industrial progress. He starts to look more like 386 00:29:05,690 --> 00:29:09,050 Speaker 1: a byword for that phrase coined by the great sociologist 387 00:29:09,490 --> 00:29:19,450 Speaker 1: Robert K. Merton, unanticipated consequences and yet unanticipated consequences isn't 388 00:29:19,450 --> 00:29:22,170 Speaker 1: a phrase you hear much anymore. It's given way to 389 00:29:22,570 --> 00:29:27,850 Speaker 1: unintended consequences. Merton himself switched from using one phrase to 390 00:29:27,890 --> 00:29:31,010 Speaker 1: the other. They might sound like synonyms, but they're not. 391 00:29:31,650 --> 00:29:36,130 Speaker 1: A professor of political science named Frank Dejevart points out 392 00:29:36,130 --> 00:29:40,850 Speaker 1: that this shift in language obscures a whole category of impacts, 393 00:29:41,250 --> 00:29:45,970 Speaker 1: ones that you don't intend but you might nonetheless anticipate. 394 00:29:46,970 --> 00:29:50,010 Speaker 1: Think of a doctor prescribing a drug that often has 395 00:29:50,050 --> 00:29:53,610 Speaker 1: side effects. She doesn't want you to suffer the side effects, 396 00:29:53,730 --> 00:29:57,570 Speaker 1: but she does foresee the possibility, or at least she should, 397 00:29:58,330 --> 00:30:01,570 Speaker 1: and she should be honest about it too. We expect 398 00:30:01,690 --> 00:30:05,970 Speaker 1: doctors to speak truthfully about risks and trade offs. Other 399 00:30:06,010 --> 00:30:09,850 Speaker 1: decision makers might not when they stand to gain while 400 00:30:09,850 --> 00:30:13,930 Speaker 1: the risks fall on others. In cases like that, says Dejerrat, 401 00:30:14,330 --> 00:30:20,170 Speaker 1: we should be skeptical when someone apologizes for unintended consequences. 402 00:30:20,290 --> 00:30:23,490 Speaker 1: It can be an attempt to evade responsibility for harms 403 00:30:23,530 --> 00:30:29,930 Speaker 1: they didn't intend but should have foreseen. That CFC's would 404 00:30:29,930 --> 00:30:35,450 Speaker 1: destroy the ozone layer was genuinely unanticipated until Mariomalina sat 405 00:30:35,530 --> 00:30:38,970 Speaker 1: down with his pencil and paper and calculator. It simply 406 00:30:39,210 --> 00:30:43,650 Speaker 1: hadn't occurred to anyone as a possibility. But when Thomas 407 00:30:43,690 --> 00:30:48,450 Speaker 1: Midgley and Boss Kettering launched tetra ethyl lead as a 408 00:30:48,450 --> 00:30:52,450 Speaker 1: fuel additive to stop engine knock. The danger was all 409 00:30:52,490 --> 00:30:56,930 Speaker 1: too predictable. It had been known for centuries that lead 410 00:30:57,210 --> 00:31:02,770 Speaker 1: was poisonous. America's foremost expert in lead was doctor Alice Hamilton. 411 00:31:03,330 --> 00:31:07,730 Speaker 1: In nineteen twenty five, she pleaded with US regulators not 412 00:31:08,050 --> 00:31:13,250 Speaker 1: to allow me and Kettering to put lead in gasoline. 413 00:31:13,650 --> 00:31:15,730 Speaker 4: I am not one of those who believe that the 414 00:31:15,850 --> 00:31:20,130 Speaker 4: use of this leaded gasoline can ever be made safe. 415 00:31:20,250 --> 00:31:24,010 Speaker 4: No lead industry has ever, even under the strictest control, 416 00:31:24,130 --> 00:31:28,570 Speaker 4: lost all its dangers. Where there is lead, some case 417 00:31:28,610 --> 00:31:33,290 Speaker 4: of lead poisoning sooner or later develops. Even under the 418 00:31:33,450 --> 00:31:35,210 Speaker 4: strictest supervision. 419 00:31:36,490 --> 00:31:39,930 Speaker 1: There had already been ample evidence of the risk. At 420 00:31:39,930 --> 00:31:43,610 Speaker 1: a plant making tetra ethyl lead in New Jersey, five 421 00:31:43,770 --> 00:31:47,450 Speaker 1: of the forty nine workers had died. Most of the 422 00:31:47,490 --> 00:31:52,930 Speaker 1: rest had been taken to hospital in strait jackets, hallucinating, screaming, 423 00:31:53,010 --> 00:31:57,370 Speaker 1: and convulsing. Midgeley and Ketching said that they could make 424 00:31:57,450 --> 00:32:00,850 Speaker 1: the factories safe for workers. Even if that were true, 425 00:32:01,250 --> 00:32:05,410 Speaker 1: said Alice Hamilton, could still have millions of cars belching 426 00:32:05,490 --> 00:32:09,610 Speaker 1: lead in exhaust fumes into the air we all breathe. 427 00:32:09,770 --> 00:32:13,330 Speaker 4: You may control conditions within a factory but how are 428 00:32:13,370 --> 00:32:15,410 Speaker 4: you going to control the whole country? 429 00:32:16,890 --> 00:32:20,570 Speaker 1: Midgley insisted there'd be too little lead in exhaust fumes 430 00:32:20,570 --> 00:32:24,610 Speaker 1: to cause any problems for human health. He didn't intend 431 00:32:24,930 --> 00:32:29,570 Speaker 1: to poison people, but he should have anticipated that he might. 432 00:32:30,650 --> 00:32:35,090 Speaker 1: Alice Hamilton did, and she warned him. Faced with this 433 00:32:35,170 --> 00:32:38,210 Speaker 1: kind of criticism, Bossquttering knew that he needed to get 434 00:32:38,290 --> 00:32:42,450 Speaker 1: public opinion on his side. Fortunately for him, Thomas Midgley 435 00:32:42,570 --> 00:32:46,890 Speaker 1: wasn't just an inventor. Remember he was that consummate showman 436 00:32:46,970 --> 00:32:50,690 Speaker 1: we heard about earlier, filling his lungs with di chlorodie 437 00:32:50,770 --> 00:32:54,930 Speaker 1: fluoromethane to blow out a candle. At a press conference 438 00:32:54,970 --> 00:32:58,890 Speaker 1: on leaded gasoline, Midgley put on a similar kind of show. 439 00:32:59,770 --> 00:33:03,610 Speaker 1: He produced a container of tetra ethyl lead, poured the 440 00:33:03,650 --> 00:33:10,970 Speaker 1: liquid all over his hands, and ostentatious breathed in the fumes. 441 00:33:11,770 --> 00:33:15,810 Speaker 1: I'm not taking any chance whatever, nor would I take 442 00:33:15,890 --> 00:33:21,010 Speaker 1: any chance doing that every day. The journalists were wowed. 443 00:33:22,290 --> 00:33:25,970 Speaker 1: But Midgley must have known how disingenuous he was being, 444 00:33:26,610 --> 00:33:30,210 Speaker 1: and how reckless he had just taken months off work 445 00:33:30,290 --> 00:33:36,010 Speaker 1: to recover from lead poisoning himself. Kettering and Midgeley knew 446 00:33:36,010 --> 00:33:42,210 Speaker 1: the risks, was there really no alternative? Well? When governments 447 00:33:42,290 --> 00:33:46,610 Speaker 1: finally banned leather gasoline, scientists found different ways to prevent 448 00:33:46,650 --> 00:33:52,370 Speaker 1: engine knock. When governments banned CFCs, scientists found alternative ways 449 00:33:52,370 --> 00:33:57,330 Speaker 1: to make fridges and air conditioners and air assaults. Science 450 00:33:57,370 --> 00:34:02,090 Speaker 1: is great. Midgeley and Kettering knew of at least one 451 00:34:02,210 --> 00:34:07,690 Speaker 1: promising potential alternative, ethyl alcohol, but any old farmer could 452 00:34:07,730 --> 00:34:12,770 Speaker 1: make ethyl alcohol from whereas tetra ethyl lad was something 453 00:34:12,810 --> 00:34:16,930 Speaker 1: that could be patented and monetized. They just had to 454 00:34:16,930 --> 00:34:19,730 Speaker 1: get past experts such as Alice Hamilton. 455 00:34:19,890 --> 00:34:23,770 Speaker 2: First, Mitchley went to work on the job of introducing 456 00:34:23,810 --> 00:34:26,570 Speaker 2: the new product of the public and endeavor, which he 457 00:34:26,650 --> 00:34:31,730 Speaker 2: met with and finally overcame many obstacles and much opposition. 458 00:34:32,650 --> 00:34:37,130 Speaker 1: Overcoming obstacles in opposition. It's a fitting line for a eulogy, 459 00:34:37,810 --> 00:34:41,290 Speaker 1: but I can't help thinking of another fine phrase. The 460 00:34:41,330 --> 00:34:49,130 Speaker 1: sociologist Robert K. Merton, the imperious immediacy of interest leaded 461 00:34:49,170 --> 00:34:56,210 Speaker 1: gasoline would make a lot of money. Who really cared 462 00:34:56,410 --> 00:35:16,530 Speaker 1: what might happen next. For a full list of our sources, 463 00:35:16,690 --> 00:35:22,810 Speaker 1: please see the show notes at Timharford dot com. Cautionary 464 00:35:22,850 --> 00:35:26,290 Speaker 1: Tales is written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. 465 00:35:26,850 --> 00:35:30,410 Speaker 1: It's produced by Ryan Dilley with support from Courtney Gerino 466 00:35:30,570 --> 00:35:33,890 Speaker 1: and Emily Vaughan, but the sound design and original music 467 00:35:34,010 --> 00:35:37,330 Speaker 1: is the work of Pascal Wise. It features the voice 468 00:35:37,330 --> 00:35:42,050 Speaker 1: talents of Ben Crow, Melanie Guttridge, Stella Harford and Rufus Wright. 469 00:35:42,570 --> 00:35:45,450 Speaker 1: The show also wouldn't have been possible without the work 470 00:35:45,490 --> 00:35:50,650 Speaker 1: of Mea LaBelle, Jacob Weisberg, Heather Fane, John Schnaz, Julia Barton, 471 00:35:50,970 --> 00:35:56,250 Speaker 1: Carlie mcgliori, Eric Sandler, Royston Basserv Maggie Taylor, Nicol Morano, 472 00:35:56,610 --> 00:36:01,210 Speaker 1: Daniel Lacahan and Maya Kanig. Cautionary Tales is a production 473 00:36:01,450 --> 00:36:05,090 Speaker 1: of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, please remember 474 00:36:05,130 --> 00:36:08,690 Speaker 1: to share, rape and review, tell a friend, tell two friends, 475 00:36:09,090 --> 00:36:10,930 Speaker 1: and if you want to hear the show ads free 476 00:36:11,010 --> 00:36:15,370 Speaker 1: and listen to four exclusive Cautionary Tale shorts. 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