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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app joining us now,

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Speaker 2: the one that puts Greek and Latin into our bond cover.

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Speaker 2: And Robert Michael, Bob Michael of JP Morgan. How do

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Speaker 2: the Greeks right now? The derivative Greeks play into what

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Speaker 2: you do When you look at the quiet of holes

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Speaker 2: in the market or a new volatility, maybe it's skew

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Speaker 2: that you play. How does a derivative space fit in?

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Speaker 3: They're critical to what we do in the markets. I

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Speaker 3: think so much of what you try to do is

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Speaker 3: in the cash market, but there's limited bandwidth. Broker dealer

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Speaker 3: balance sheets, aren't what they used to be, And a

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Speaker 3: lot of the balance sheet in the industry sits with

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Speaker 3: investors like ourselves, and we tend to own securities until

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Speaker 3: we change our mind. So we're not in the market

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Speaker 3: actively trying to change positions. You go into the derivatives

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Speaker 3: market to help you change the positioning of your portfolio

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Speaker 3: or perhaps put a bit of a hedge on.

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Speaker 2: Is there about Michael, and I think of Ian Lingoln

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Speaker 2: at BMO Capital. You're saying we're going to see price up,

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Speaker 2: yield down. Is there a bet in the space now

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Speaker 2: like what you believe that we will see as a

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Speaker 2: regime lower yields.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's everywhere we liken the current environment. In nineteen

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Speaker 3: ninety five, there's one critical difference. When the FED finished

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Speaker 3: hiking rates from three percent to six percent in ninety five,

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Speaker 3: the entire yeal curve was above the FED funds rate. Today,

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Speaker 3: we think the Fed is done hiking rates, but the

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Speaker 3: entire yeal curve is trading roughly one hundred basis points

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Speaker 3: through the FED funds rate. So that's telling us that

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Speaker 3: the market still believes that the Fed will come in

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Speaker 3: take pressure off of businesses and households by doing at

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Speaker 3: least a few rate cuts over the next twelve months.

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Speaker 1: Bob, We're sitting here at two year treasury almost at

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Speaker 1: five percent. Here, I don't know, I'm going to park

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Speaker 1: my money right there, and I'm going to feel fine.

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Speaker 1: Is that a bad trade?

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Speaker 3: It's not a bad trade, but you may feel lonely

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Speaker 3: compared to the money that's sitting in money market funds.

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Speaker 3: You're willing to step out. But what we're looking at

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Speaker 3: is over six trillion dollars of assets sitting in money

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Speaker 3: market funds and they're feeling cozier at somewhere closer to

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Speaker 3: a five and a half percent yield. For that money

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Speaker 3: to come out and come into the bond market, we

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Speaker 3: do need to see the Fed begin to cut rates,

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Speaker 3: or at least telegraph that they're thinking about it again

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Speaker 3: and not dropping these sins that maybe rates could go higher.

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Speaker 1: So what do you think our Fed should do? I mean,

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Speaker 1: the economic data suggests that maybe there's no reason to

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Speaker 1: cut rates. We've got I don't know, inflation still out there.

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Speaker 3: If I were at the Fed, everything looks so good,

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Speaker 3: I would just sit in my hands for the next

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Speaker 3: couple quarters see what happens into the election. And do nothing.

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Speaker 3: You're looking at over two years of unemployment below four percent.

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Speaker 3: I know we get PCE at the end of this week.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of debate. Is it going to be

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Speaker 3: two seven or two point eight year every year? Is

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Speaker 3: it a point two five for a point twenty seven increase?

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Speaker 3: The reality is to something year every year is much

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Speaker 3: lower than the six point six percent year every year

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Speaker 3: it was a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 2: So the stated system, is there leverage in the system?

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Speaker 2: Is there that animal don't I don't want to say

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Speaker 2: animal spirit, that that ancient animal instinct to leverage up

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Speaker 2: when we're certain we know what we're doing. Is there

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Speaker 2: that bet right now?

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Speaker 3: You're not seeing it to the extent that we saw

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Speaker 3: it previously, either headed into the dot com bubble in

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Speaker 3: two thousand or certainly into the Great Financial Crisis in

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Speaker 3: two thousand and seven two thousand and eight. But there

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Speaker 3: is a lot of borrowing going on out there. The

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Speaker 3: most levered balance sheet are not businesses in household they're

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Speaker 3: actually federal governments. Globally, when you look about the extension

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Speaker 3: of credit into the system, bank balance sheets may have shrunk.

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Speaker 3: Private credit is out there, but.

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Speaker 2: The heart of the matter. Going back to Rogueff and Reinhardt,

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Speaker 2: this time is different. Is they took within their iconic

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Speaker 2: study of debt that it's about public and private combination

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Speaker 2: of debt. Would you suggest we're going to see a

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Speaker 2: private debt issuance and build up and belief in debt,

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Speaker 2: so we've got both public and private over indebtedness.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't feel like we're heading there. I agree, right

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Speaker 3: right now, it feels like and I know you did

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Speaker 3: a story that consumers are looking to do a bit

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Speaker 3: more vacationing and a third of them are willing to

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Speaker 3: put that, willing to go into debt to do that.

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Speaker 3: Going into the financial crisis, one hundred and twenty percent

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Speaker 3: of them would have been willing to have gone into

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Speaker 3: debt to go on vacation. So there is some moderation.

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Speaker 3: You look at housing, consumers aren't changing, aren't chasing how

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Speaker 3: housing prices higher.

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Speaker 2: Let's listen to our Latin tour guide here as we.

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Speaker 3: Go to Rome, Arma, we're room quay kind of troy

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Speaker 3: I quy primus aboris.

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Speaker 2: That's great, and that's like Lisa Mateo's schedule to go

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Speaker 2: to Rome. Here she's going deep into debt. Okay, and

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Speaker 2: to go to loan so she can catch up with

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Speaker 2: Bob Michael and the Latin. That's perfect, it's out there

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Speaker 2: as well. It's going to happen.

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Speaker 4: Bob. What do I do here?

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Speaker 1: And if I want to take some credit risk here?

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Speaker 1: Do I stay with investment grade? Do I go to

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Speaker 1: high yield? Because high yield was the performer last year

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Speaker 1: in the fixed income space? Where do we go in

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Speaker 1: a credit space?

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Speaker 3: You hope that over the next week high yield pulls

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Speaker 3: back a little bit further and then you go in

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Speaker 3: without recession on the horizon. You have nothing to fear

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Speaker 3: but yourself. If you stay out of the high yield market,

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Speaker 3: you're you're picking up now yields of over eight percent. Wow,

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Speaker 3: corporate profitability looks good. It's a much cleaner high yield

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Speaker 3: market than anything I like time six percent of it

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Speaker 3: washed away back in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: I guess I got to go to the FED meeting

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Speaker 2: as well. The basic ideas, it's a snoozefest to get

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Speaker 2: to June when they redo the dots and as a

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Speaker 2: raging debate now Craig Trus with great leadership on this

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Speaker 2: over the weekend about the FED almost over communicating. Is

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Speaker 2: your world made more complex because there's too much communication

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Speaker 2: from FED presidents, governors and leaders.

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Speaker 3: You know, Tom, the one dead language that I miss

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Speaker 3: is FED speak. Remember in the days back in the eighties,

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Speaker 3: when the FED wasn't always telling you every day what

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Speaker 3: you were thinking.

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Speaker 2: I yearned for it.

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Speaker 3: You used to get the FED minutes, you used to

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Speaker 3: get the listen to the Humphrey Hawkins testimony. You heard

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Speaker 3: what Greenspan said, then you got out your secret FED

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Speaker 3: decodering and interpretated what he meant was a value to that.

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Speaker 3: And I think there is just way too much daily

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Speaker 3: information coming, Paul.

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Speaker 2: The most important conversation I've had on this is someone

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Speaker 2: that Bob Michael knows, Richard Berner, who drove the ship

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Speaker 2: at Morgan Stanley for Steve Roach for years in the

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Speaker 2: US economy, public service to the nation at Treasury. And

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Speaker 2: what was so important here is there was just what

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Speaker 2: mister Michael says. And then you would go see a

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Speaker 2: president at a rotary club or some other economic club

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Speaker 2: and they'd say, just as little at the breakfast is

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Speaker 2: they were saying to us on the street.

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Speaker 1: Bob, you're head of the global fixed in home currency

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Speaker 1: and Commodities group. Here, let's go currencies. What is there

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Speaker 1: a bare case for the US dollar here? Or are

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Speaker 1: we just all along the US dollar and letting everybody

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Speaker 1: else deal with it.

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Speaker 3: There's a bare case for the dollar when the FED

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Speaker 3: starts cutting rates. Until they do that, there's no sense

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Speaker 3: fighting the strength and the dollar. If you look at

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Speaker 3: when the dollar really started to gain strength, it's when

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Speaker 3: the FED started hiking the FED funds rate at the

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Speaker 3: start of twenty twenty two. Back then, yen was about

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Speaker 3: one ten, not one point fifty. The entire strength and

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Speaker 3: dollar yen has come from the FED hiking rates, not

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Speaker 3: anything that's happened on the Bank of Japan's part.

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Speaker 1: So, and we see central banks around the world cutting rates,

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Speaker 1: are or saying they will cut rates, signaling that they

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Speaker 1: will cut rates. So I mean, does a FED, how

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Speaker 1: does the FED think about the dollar when they think

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Speaker 1: about their rate policy.

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Speaker 3: You're right, there have been seven thousand basis points of

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Speaker 3: rate cuts in the emerging market central banks. So those

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Speaker 3: central banks have been cutting rates for over a year,

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Speaker 3: and I have to imagine they're starting to second guests

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Speaker 3: whether they need to keep cutting rates. Here, I don't

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Speaker 3: know that the FED thinks about the dollar all that much.

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Speaker 3: If we go back, we were just talking about the

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Speaker 3: FED speak of the nineteen eighties. I remember we used

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Speaker 3: to look at the ten book, We used to look

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Speaker 3: at the minutes. We used to see how they prioritized inflation,

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Speaker 3: growth and the dollar, and many times the dollar was

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Speaker 3: their number one priority. I don't think it's their priority

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Speaker 3: right now. I think it's a huge one for the

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Speaker 3: ECB and the Bank of Japan A.

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Speaker 2: Bob and the time we got left. I really want

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Speaker 2: to focus here on end of the earning season in

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Speaker 2: corporate issuance off of like ZV Body at Boston University,

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Speaker 2: or there's a thing folks called eminem. It's not the candy,

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Speaker 2: but it's a theory here and the allocation of your

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Speaker 2: capital structure to debt. Are we underdebted right now in

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Speaker 2: quality corporate America? Do they have not enough bills, notes

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Speaker 2: and bonds?

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Speaker 3: I think we are. We have spent the last quarter

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Speaker 3: trying to poke holes in corporate profitability in the markets

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Speaker 3: and at JP Morgan with our credit research team, and

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Speaker 3: they can't do it. And instead what they're seeing is

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Speaker 3: a reacceleration in corporate profitability and businesses thinking about investing

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Speaker 3: in cap X. Again, it looks pretty bright out there

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Speaker 3: for corporate America. It does remind me in nineteen ninety five.

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Speaker 2: Do you suggest bond issuance will be the surprise of

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Speaker 2: the next eighteen months.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I think there's a shortage of corporate

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Speaker 3: debt right now. We were looking out over the next

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Speaker 3: couple quarters and there's money, more money maturing than there

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Speaker 3: are planned.

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Speaker 2: At what you just heard there, folks, is classic John

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Speaker 2: Templeton from Bob Michael. I'm sorry, Paul, I'm in this camp.

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Speaker 2: There's a shortage of bonds. Nobody's looking at the Bob

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Speaker 2: Michael world and it's a tangible part of how we

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Speaker 2: do this, and it links into the equity market, and

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Speaker 2: there's just a shortage of bonds. That's all there is.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Bob, you read you're JP Morgan Asset Management.

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Speaker 1: You guys are pretty big. If you wanted to get

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Speaker 1: out of a position change a big allocation. Is there

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Speaker 1: enough liquidity on the street to kind of get that

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Speaker 1: trade done to your liking today versus ten or fifteen

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Speaker 1: years ago. How much harder is it, if at all,

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Speaker 1: to kind of make major trades for you guys.

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Speaker 3: Right now. When things are relatively stable, you can do it.

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Speaker 3: It will take a little bit of time, depending how

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Speaker 3: large a position you're trying to move. There's a lot

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Speaker 3: more in portfolio trading, so hundreds of line items all

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Speaker 3: at once at a single price. That's a feature that

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Speaker 3: didn't exist pre financial crisis. But when everyone is waried

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Speaker 3: and everyone's pulling back liquidity and their balance sheet, then

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Speaker 3: it is far more challenging than it was.

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan, you say, get that trade done for me, right?

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Speaker 1: I mean, you guys are players.

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Speaker 3: You try not to do that because you are, You

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Speaker 3: are reliant on a counterparty. I think that's a pre

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Speaker 3: financial crisis.

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Speaker 2: Let me pin down the ten year yeld twelve months

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Speaker 2: from now, just a vanilla media call here for animals

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Speaker 2: like me.

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Speaker 3: I think we're going to be right around four percent.

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Speaker 2: Down, but not down with the drama that financial media.

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Speaker 3: Not a whole lot, Not a whole lot. I think

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Speaker 3: the FED could probably get one hundred and one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty five basis points of great cut.

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Speaker 2: So are you doing cliff notes now in FED speak?

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Speaker 2: If you got Greek and Latin down from your undergraduate days.

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Speaker 2: I don't are you looking at fed speakers.

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Speaker 3: I don't need to do. If they're telling us every

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Speaker 3: ten minutes what they're thinking, you don't need cliff notes.

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Speaker 2: About Michael, thank you so much, just generous with his

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Speaker 2: time here on a Monday that morning, he of course

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Speaker 2: is with JP Morgan. This is what we like to

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Speaker 2: do best. There's no other way to put it. We

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Speaker 2: like to look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities and shift

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Speaker 2: from world class to world class. We do this with

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Speaker 2: Bob Michael, J. P. Morgan and bonds and now one

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Speaker 2: of my favorite people looking at It's called investment strategy,

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Speaker 2: but far more it's just equity strategy. Liz Young joins

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Speaker 2: us with an always twisted view from so far thrilled

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Speaker 2: she could be with us today, Liz into this earning

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Speaker 2: season is a glass half full or less.

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Speaker 5: So you know what, I think it's half full on expectations,

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Speaker 5: but companies have to come through. And I have to

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Speaker 5: tell you, Tom, I don't think I've ever been called

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Speaker 5: twisted on a Monday morning, So I don't know if

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Speaker 5: that's a good sign for the week, but I think

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Speaker 5: what's going to happen this earning season. We've already seen

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Speaker 5: it a little bit, especially with the financials, is that

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Speaker 5: it's not just about the results. It's always about the guidance.

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Speaker 5: But I think right now, even more so, especially with

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Speaker 5: where equity valuations are, companies have to come in with guidance,

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Speaker 5: and expectors are expecting the guidance to be stronger even

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Speaker 5: than before. So companies have to come in with strong

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Speaker 5: guidance and optimistic outlook in order to really be rewarded

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Speaker 5: at these levels.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. And then the reason I say twisted, folks, is

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Speaker 2: I got so far working off of Anthony Nodo with

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Speaker 2: a real digital heritage. It's almost like a West Coast

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Speaker 2: ethos here on like three zip codes in midtown Manhattan

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Speaker 2: and list with that, how does a technology group look?

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Speaker 2: I mean, maybe not individual stock if you don't want

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Speaker 2: to give me a buy Hoed, Sell and Apple, although

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Speaker 2: we're listening, but the basic idea here does the tech

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Speaker 2: boom continue?

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Speaker 5: I think there's two things that we need to pay

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Speaker 5: attention to in these results for tech companies. First and

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Speaker 5: foremost investors should be aware that expectations for SMP earnings

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Speaker 5: growth are positive marginally right low single digits, and all

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Speaker 5: of that growth is coming from those tech companies or

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Speaker 5: the expectations are coming from those tech companies, So we

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Speaker 5: need tech to come through on these first quarter results

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Speaker 5: in a positive way in order to carry the index.

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Speaker 5: This is the other thing that I think is happening

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Speaker 5: and that is really important to watch, not just this

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Speaker 5: quarter but for the rest of the year, is that

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Speaker 5: we obviously had all of this AI enthusiasm pull forward,

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Speaker 5: and now we're looking at it through a company lens

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Speaker 5: of when is it really going to come to fruition,

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Speaker 5: when is it going to actually create profits? And I

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Speaker 5: think some of the enthusiasm and excitement is coming out

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Speaker 5: of that, just as everybody realizes that the profits aren't

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Speaker 5: happening immediately and there's only really a couple companies that

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Speaker 5: are doing a decent job of generating revenue off of

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Speaker 5: AI right now, So it may just take longer. Doesn't

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Speaker 5: mean the theme is dead, but it may just take

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Speaker 5: longer in order to justify these levels of valuations.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about valuations, Liz, give us your

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Speaker 1: thoughts about how this market is valued. Here do I

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Speaker 1: pull out the Magnificent seven and try to look at

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Speaker 1: the market on that basis?

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Speaker 5: Where are we well given where yields have gone just

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Speaker 5: over the past month. The market right now is valued

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Speaker 5: for a pretty great environment. And when I say pretty great,

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Speaker 5: I mean we've got fundamentals from an earning's perspective that

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Speaker 5: need to deliver at least stay this strong or strengthen.

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Speaker 5: And we would also need the economic fundamentals to stay

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Speaker 5: this strong or strengthen, and we would need geopolitical risks

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Speaker 5: to calm down or at least have the absence of

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Speaker 5: any big shocks. In the last couple weeks, we obviously

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Speaker 5: have had geopolitical tensions heating up and the likelihood of

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Speaker 5: shocks feeling higher. So the valuations as we see it now,

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Speaker 5: especially given where tenure yields are, do feel a bit high,

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Speaker 5: even with this recent pullback. So I think we have

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Speaker 5: to really watch how these numbers deliver, how the data delivers.

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Speaker 5: And we've obviously got a big inflation read coming later

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Speaker 5: this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we do absolutely on Friday, And Liz, that kind

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Speaker 1: of goes to I guess the Fed. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: market seems to be pricing out much fewer rate cuts

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Speaker 1: this year. How much is the market being held hostage

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Speaker 1: by rate cuts or the expectation of rate cuts at

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Speaker 1: the moment, I.

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Speaker 5: Think the momentum in the market is absolutely held hostage

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Speaker 5: by what the expectations for rate cuts are. So far,

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Speaker 5: we've digested it pretty well. I know that there's been

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Speaker 5: a correction, it's only a little bit so far. It

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Speaker 5: just feels bigger because our muscle memory is for the

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Speaker 5: market to rise uninhibited. But I think the rate cut

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Speaker 5: mentality is starting to actually affect where markets are trading.

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Speaker 5: But that's more of a rational approach. Some of the

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Speaker 5: relationships that we typically expect from markets, things like yields up,

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Speaker 5: stocks down, That is actually happening again, which feels much

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Speaker 5: more rational to me. And I think investors are taking

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Speaker 5: a hard look at how much am I really willing

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Speaker 5: to pay for forward earnings in an environment where yields

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Speaker 5: may stay high, if not higher, for even longer than

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Speaker 5: we expected.

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Speaker 2: Bob Micah was there. He's looking for lower rates, but

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Speaker 2: lis not much lower rates. There's not much drama from

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Speaker 2: JP Morgan. Price up, yield down, Yeah, we get that

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Speaker 2: if we yet, as you say, higher yields or renew regime,

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Speaker 2: a higher yield reset or an our start to take

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Speaker 2: it over to economics of two and a half two

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Speaker 2: point six Dare I say three point one percent? How

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Speaker 2: does that fold into the stock market three years out?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think that's what we're going through right now,

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Speaker 5: is this digestion process of Okay, if yields aren't going

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Speaker 5: to come down as dramatically as we thought by the

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Speaker 5: end of this year, when will they come down now?

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Speaker 5: What we're looking at is the reason that they're staying

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Speaker 5: higher right now is mostly predicated on the idea that

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Speaker 5: the economy is still strong, which has caused inflation to

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Speaker 5: be perhaps more of a problem for a longer period

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Speaker 5: of time than we'd hoped. So what companies have to

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Speaker 5: do and what stocks will have to react to, is

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Speaker 5: that we probably can no longer pass through these inflationary

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Speaker 5: pressures because we've done that already and there's not a

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Speaker 5: lot of clearance to do much more of it. So

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Speaker 5: companies are going to have to be careful about costs.

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Speaker 5: They're probably going to engage in some cost cutting in

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Speaker 5: order to maintain margins, and then get more creative and

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Speaker 5: get more intentional about how they're going to expand their

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Speaker 5: own pie. How are they going to grow revenue without

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Speaker 5: having to pass through costs? And I think that's where

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Speaker 5: we're going to start to see a lot of divergence

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Speaker 5: in these groups that have just blindly benefited from some

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Speaker 5: inflationary rises in revenue.

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Speaker 1: All right, Liz, what are some sectors that you think

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Speaker 1: or maybe that you guys are looking at right now

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Speaker 1: going forward for the back half of the year.

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Speaker 5: Well, there's obviously been a rotation that's been on and

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Speaker 5: then the rotation has been off, and I think we're

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Speaker 5: going to continue to see some of that volatility as

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Speaker 5: the year progresses. Some sectors that I think will stay

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Speaker 5: durable in those rotations, though, are energy. There has been

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Speaker 5: a huge run in energy since the beginning of the year,

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Speaker 5: so it could stall out a little bit as volatility

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Speaker 5: picks up, and obviously geopolitical tensions will affect that. But

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Speaker 5: energy stocks still seem to be quite attract two investors,

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Speaker 5: and I think people are not quite positioned yet for

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Speaker 5: those to look all that overbought. And then when you

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Speaker 5: look at things like earlier in the year, I was

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Speaker 5: constructive on healthcare. As we near an election, I would

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Speaker 5: pair back on healthcare. I still do feel good about

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Speaker 5: dividend paying stocks. Those can come from a number of sectors,

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Speaker 5: but dividend payers in an environment where if yields do

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Speaker 5: come down at some point, you want to have that

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Speaker 5: in the porto.

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Speaker 2: Well, you're talking to Anthony Nodo, it's so Fi with

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Speaker 2: all of his great work on Wall Street. I'm fascinated.

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Speaker 2: Do we need to see tech pay a dividend? Liz

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Speaker 2: Young this whole idea. We're not going to do a dividend,

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Speaker 2: it's a taxable event. We're only going to do share buybacks.

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Speaker 5: Where are you on that, Well, dividends are an important

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Speaker 5: piece as a shareholder. We need to talk about shareholder

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Speaker 5: friendly companies. But if you're looking you have to break

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Speaker 5: tech up into a number of different pieces. There are

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Speaker 5: tech companies that have been around for a really long time,

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Speaker 5: very established, maybe in more saturated markets, and the growth

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Speaker 5: is slower because they're not innovating at such a fast

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Speaker 5: clip and they're very large companies, Whereas if you look

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Speaker 5: at smaller companies that are still growing very very quickly,

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Speaker 5: what you want to hear from those companies as a

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Speaker 5: shareholder is that they're investing in their growth. So I

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Speaker 5: don't think we can paint it with a broad brush

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Speaker 5: company like Sofi, smaller earlier in its life cycle than

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Speaker 5: maybe something really big like IBM that's been around for

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Speaker 5: a long time. So as a shareholder, if you're buying

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Speaker 5: a company with the intention to expect strong growth from

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Speaker 5: it in the future, I'd probably want to hear that

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Speaker 5: they're investing in their growth.

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Speaker 2: Liz, thank you. Just wonderful. Liz Young, thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: How to investment strategy, it's so fine. I really can't

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Speaker 2: say enough about a Bob Michael to Liz Young excellence

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Speaker 2: there in bonds and inequities. Joining us now for a

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Speaker 2: brief in the Philadelphia seventy six Ers, Eric bil chunis,

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Speaker 2: how revved up is Philadelphia?

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Speaker 4: Oh, we're revved up. We enjoyed the you know, I

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Speaker 4: had my first beer moment when the New York Knicks

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Speaker 4: man just going up one to oh in invest of seven,

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Speaker 4: we're like burning and beat Jersey. All these chants. They

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Speaker 4: acted like they won this championship. That was fun. It

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Speaker 4: should be interesting in Philly. We like to return the face.

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Speaker 1: Yes, what what?

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Speaker 2: What's the single thing that can allow the Sixers to

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Speaker 2: do better than the pundits say?

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Speaker 4: Play more Kyle Lowry, who is just an animal in

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Speaker 4: the clutch and play less. Tobias Harris who is way

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Speaker 4: Philly is just over this guy. But he's like just

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Speaker 4: assumed he's a starter. He plays a lot, he just

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Speaker 4: misses a lot of shots.

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Speaker 1: And it's all comes down to Embiid it does.

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Speaker 4: He's a warrior and Embid I think against the next

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Speaker 4: he'll show clutch gene. Sometimes Embiide has this thing with

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Speaker 4: the Celtics. He just can't beat them in the end.

438
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 4: But I think he'll do good against the next.

439
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 2: Time we had to do this, the owners in Belchunas

440
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 2: would show up if we talked sixers basketball. So Eric

441
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 2: Belchunis owns a high ground in ETF. So I want

442
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 2: to make clear, folks, this is an earned high ground.

443
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 2: He didn't do it with pr people, and he didn't

444
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 2: do it with social media. He did it with two

445
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 2: books that are absolutely meant, the Magic of John Bogel

446
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 2: and all. So of course this ETF boom, it's there.

447
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 2: I gotta go to the event over the weekend. A

448
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: manipulated halving of the supply of bitcoin up today. Last

449
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 2: time I looked up fourteen hundred dollars sixty six thousand.

450
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 2: What does that mean for the kajillion dollars and bitcoin ETFs.

451
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, right now, it's a little bit of a holding pattern.

452
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 4: The flows have been, you know, a little bit a

453
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 4: couple outflows here, a couple inflows there. But that second

454
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 4: wave I spoke of the past couple weeks has definitely

455
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 4: died down. We'll see if we get a third wave.

456
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 4: So right now we're holding at about net twelve point

457
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 4: five billion since they launched, which to me, if that's

458
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 4: all they get this whole year, that's a success. That's

459
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 4: how big that number is. But we'll see what happens.

460
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 4: I think that the price is holding pattern is interestingly

461
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: intertwined with the flows holding pattern. Maybe one of them

462
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 4: is waiting to go up, but they tend to be

463
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 4: in a spiral together for now. I think the ETFs

464
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 4: are one of the biggest catalysts. There's definitely algos trading

465
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 4: off of the ETF flows, so there's almost like an

466
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 4: amplification effect. So we'll see what happens with the ETF

467
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 4: flows this week. One good news though, is gbtc's outflows

468
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 4: continue to get lower, so they're now in the same.

469
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 1: Double see the Grayscale.

470
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, gbt the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust that converted with twenty

471
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 4: eight billion. It's now down to I think twenty billion,

472
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 4: but has seen sixteen billion of outflows. That's been a

473
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 4: weight on this, but the twelve point five billion is

474
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 4: net of those outflows. But GBTC seeing less and less

475
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,679
Speaker 4: is a good sign. But the nine new ones have

476
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 4: also seen less and less inflows. So we're kind of

477
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 4: at this sort of Like I said, it's just sort

478
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,080
Speaker 4: of a breather, and that makes sense. You know, ETF

479
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 4: flows for something like that would be hot sauce like

480
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 4: this tend to be somewhat correlated with price. But there's

481
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 4: some catalysts coming up. I think a large chunk of

482
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 4: advisors haven't even looked at this yet. They like to

483
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 4: wait a couple months. The wirehouses they're not really able

484
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 4: to solicit them yet so and you've got no options

485
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 4: on them yet. That could come down the road. So

486
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 4: there's some good optimistic catalysts. But of course bitcoins price

487
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 4: can do crazy things and that's a huge variable.

488
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: Is Blackrock just gonna own this space too?

489
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean I just tweeted today they've now seen

490
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 4: sixty nine straight days of inflows basically right out of

491
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 4: the gate flows every day. That's basically in the top

492
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 4: ten all time, and it's the most highest streak of

493
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 4: any ETF by far that's active right now. So they're

494
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 4: loving it. I mean, Larry Fink was on a different

495
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 4: channel about two weeks ago and he was grinning ear

496
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 4: to ear like a proud father about ibit. He's like,

497
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 4: this is the greatest launching ETF history. Now, keep in mind,

498
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 4: Blackrock has one thousand ETFs across the world. They've got

499
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,160
Speaker 4: a bunch of other businesses. He rarely brings up individual ETFs,

500
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 4: and here he is talking about this one ticker, which,

501
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 4: by the way, listen to this that out of those

502
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,360
Speaker 4: thousand ETFs in the world, IBID accounts for twenty four

503
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 4: percent of all their netflows this year.

504
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: Wow. Well, you know there's a generational thing going on here.

505
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 2: Did you notice this Paul on the other side of

506
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: Belchiunas and Lisa, they're like incredibly cut jesseled, Yeah, exactly,

507
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: And I can barely keep in this your perspective on

508
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 2: the death of the mutual fun business. Paul and I

509
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 2: live this each in our own way. When did they

510
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 2: roll up and go home?

511
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a very complicated sub It's complicated. It's

512
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 4: complicated in most businesses. If you lose customers, you probably

513
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 4: get acquired or you got a business like in a mall.

514
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 4: If you sell candlesticks and the customer stuff's coming, it's

515
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 4: over right, right, Maybe a month you have and then

516
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 4: you're out. The thing with mutual funds is you can

517
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 4: lose customers and still make more money if the market

518
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 4: goes up. So you got all these mutual funds that

519
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 4: came into this last bull market, will call since two

520
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 4: thousand and eight, they had trillions of dollars. So even

521
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,639
Speaker 4: though they've seen trillions of outflows, the market's gone up

522
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: what three fourfold, So the value of their portfolios is gigantic.

523
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 4: So equity mutual funds, this that will blow your mind.

524
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 4: It makes my head hurt. Have seen three trillion dollars

525
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 4: of outflows in the past ten years, right, makes sense,

526
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 4: that's the story. But their assets grew by six trillion,

527
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 4: so they're doing fine, but they're losing customers. It's a

528
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: mirage asset. So and they know this. So what I

529
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 4: like to say is the writing's on the wall. They

530
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 4: can see the writing on the wall. They know they're

531
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 4: making as much money as ever, but they they know

532
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 4: the customers are leaving. So a lot of them are

533
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 4: moving over to the ETF space to try to be

534
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 4: where the customers are.

535
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: Are they successfully moving over to the ETF.

536
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,959
Speaker 4: Space, Yes, but success means a little cannibalization, and some

537
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 4: are more willing to do it than others. JP Morgan's

538
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 4: a great example, got cheap quick and having huge success.

539
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 4: I think the more diversified a company is, like JP

540
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 4: Morgan has so much going on, Jamie Diamond might not even.

541
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 2: Be aware of what they're doing.

542
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 4: That those people hire an ETF person and they create

543
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 4: a true ETF business. The tough ones are the mutual

544
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 4: fund companies like say a federated where or mfs, where

545
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,719
Speaker 4: all they have is the mutual funds. It's harder for

546
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,479
Speaker 4: them to eat their own arm off.

547
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 1: Get so, I mean where other than the bitcoin space,

548
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: What's where are we seeing fun flows these days? We

549
00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: just had Joanne Bianca on from the bomb blocks. They're

550
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: seeing flows and going into high yield and so on

551
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 1: and so forth. Where we are you seeing kind of the.

552
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, let me give you a great example. So emerging markets.

553
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 4: Emerging market's kind of been a little you know, out

554
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 4: off lately.

555
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: Yep.

556
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 4: But there's one ETF that's taken in four times the

557
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: flows of any other and it's a non obvious one.

558
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 4: E MXC this is the I Shares Emerging Markets X China.

559
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 4: This thing is now thirteen billion dollars. You know, this

560
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 4: is like I said that, they grow up so fast sometimes.

561
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 4: So if you have no China in your em your

562
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 4: ETFs are flying off the shelves. If you have China

563
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 4: in your E M, E T F, you can't sell it.

564
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: Wow.

565
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 2: Thank you, this is great, and thank you for the

566
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 2: seventy six ers brief. Anytime I'm the rook I don't

567
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: like Lisa and I were like, we don't know what

568
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 2: we're talking about.

569
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 4: Sweeney's Kyle Lowry. The more you see him, the higher

570
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 4: our chances are.

571
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 2: Eric Belchuns, thank you so much. The Philadelphia is seventy

572
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 2: six ers. They play a team in New York. Here

573
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: you look at the front pages Lisa all night or

574
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: Sunday night, getting ready for the newspapers. What do you go?

575
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 6: I need another cup of coffee. Now that's what I need.

576
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 7: We're starting with the Wall Street Journal. They have this

577
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 7: interesting look about how diversity goals. They're starting to disappear

578
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 7: from companies' annual reports. So they did this analysis of

579
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 7: ten K filings to the SEC. Now, some companies shortened descriptions,

580
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 7: removed entire sections, others changed a few words phrases to

581
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 7: cut out mentions of race specific hiring. But you know,

582
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 7: it comes, you know as a lot of legal political

583
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 7: threats after Affirmative Action decision. So these are some of

584
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 7: the changes colds like no longer says it's cultivating quote

585
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 7: diverse leaders. It now says it's just leaders. So those

586
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 7: are just some of the things. But analysts are telling

587
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 7: the journal that there's this kind of reevaluation the level

588
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 7: of political risk that these companies are willing to take now.

589
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 7: So now you're starting to see a difference from a

590
00:30:59,360 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 7: few years.

591
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 2: So the catalyst Paul for this was money. I think

592
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 2: it started with Hollywood, where different Hollywood entities added up

593
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 2: actual screen failures from somewhat of a diversity thrusts led

594
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: by Disney. And one number I saw in variety was

595
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 2: a billion dollars of losses on projects that were spurred

596
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 2: forward by diversity. And now it's come over to other industries.

597
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I've seen written in a variety of

598
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: media over the last six months kind of phrases of

599
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: peak DEI, peak wokeness. Have we passed the peaks and

600
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: those types of things. I don't know. But again, here's

601
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: something from the Wall Street Journal talking about diversity and

602
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: any report a.

603
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 2: Woman would say, least as I had a shit going

604
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: years ago where i'd interview a CEO. Usually they don't.

605
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: They don't want to come on with me because you know,

606
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 2: I asked like real questions, and you know, I would

607
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 2: put up their annual report from three or five years ago,

608
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 2: which read like it was in Sanskrit. Because there's always

609
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 2: a vogue to be fair to everybody doing the hard

610
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 2: work of diversity. There's always something in and two or

611
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: three years later you look back and you go, did

612
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 2: I really write that? Or did my team really write that?

613
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 2: That's why one reason I think James Diamond's sixty two

614
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: page epistle is actually valuable because he's not writing a

615
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: PR structured in DNA. But it's fascinting to see where

616
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 2: this is twelve months from now. So what else do you?

617
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 5: Yeah?

618
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 6: It keeps changing.

619
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 7: Okay, this is about more Americans wanting to go on

620
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 7: vacation right vacation season, but they're willing to go in

621
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 7: debt in order to go on vacation. This is a

622
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 7: Bank Greade survey. A little more than half say they're

623
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 7: planning the summer vacation twenty twenty four. But of those,

624
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 7: one in three say they are willing to go in debt.

625
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 6: Carrie put it on a credit card. They're willing to buy.

626
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 7: Now, pay later, borrow from family friends to go on vacation,

627
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 7: even taking out personal loans, or just think.

628
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: There's a thing called uplift, which is the buy now,

629
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: pay later for airplane tickets, and that's changed the world.

630
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: And what I see there is people that would fly

631
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: economy doing that buy now, pay later and buying premium economy,

632
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 2: or people that would buy premium economy, buy now, pay later,

633
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 2: slide into business class. And to me, that's been a

634
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 2: profound It's one vehicle of what you're talking about here.

635
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: Well, we've heard from all like the cruise companies that

636
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: they're fully booked and they're booking next year and bookings

637
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: are great, and same thing for the hotels.

638
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 2: But Rich, help me out here, this is important.

639
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 4: Where's he going?

640
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 6: Rich?

641
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: Is our surveillance cruise reports. There's no cruises. He's even

642
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 2: done the Alaska polar Bear thing like the are they booming? Boom?

643
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 2: They're booming, like like you got a race to get

644
00:33:53,840 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 2: a booking? Where's your next cruise ate Slavia? Can you

645
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 2: see Rich? He's probably taken kind fellow or global technical director.

646
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 2: Can you see Rich Truman at the parapet of the

647
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: Game of Thrones castle in du Barberick looking out looking

648
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,399
Speaker 2: for the damn dragons? I can see it now.

649
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 7: The Yeah, okay, so we've been talking about Apple relying

650
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:25,320
Speaker 7: on China for and the iPhone for growth. Yeah, so Apple,

651
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 7: what Bloomberg is saying, this is a really interesting report

652
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 7: that they need to explore new ways to get back

653
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 7: on track, like a lower grade iPhone, maybe in the

654
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 7: two hundred and fifty dollars range. Don't know if that's possible,

655
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 7: but the article really gets into how, you know, different

656
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 7: ways Apple can go about doing that.

657
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:42,919
Speaker 6: But it's really been trying.

658
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,359
Speaker 7: I mean, they've been trying to put out you know,

659
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 7: all in one services, a lot of accessories that hasn't worked.

660
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 7: They tried to put out a cheaper iPhone, didn't really

661
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:51,239
Speaker 7: pick up too much.

662
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,279
Speaker 6: But Bloomberg is saying, this is that target they need

663
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 6: to hit. That tool.

664
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 1: I mean, this is re reporting by Mark German, So

665
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: nobody knows Apple better than the course Mark Mark germant.

666
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: But I've always kind of said, if they keep saying

667
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: they point out India as in market for growth, given

668
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: that maybe they want to pivot away from China, but

669
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: if you want to be a player in India, don't

670
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: you have to have a lower cost phone to appeal

671
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:12,440
Speaker 1: to that market?

672
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 2: Can you make the profit?

673
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 4: Apple is exactly that's You're right, I don't have.

674
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 2: In front of those ratios, But the amount of money

675
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 2: Apple makes per phone versus Samson is shocking. It's shocking.

676
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,239
Speaker 6: They delta, You're right, I do, I do?

677
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 7: Okay, So more workers or should I say some workers?

678
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 7: They swear that ketamine, although there's psychedelics.

679
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 6: Can boost creativity and focus.

680
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 4: On the job.

681
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 6: I mean, we saw it.

682
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 7: Elon Musk says he takes it to boost his mental health.

683
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 7: But the thing that's pushing is because it's becoming legal

684
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 7: in some areas.

685
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 6: Like Oregon, Colorado.

686
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 7: So it's leggetting that lessening that negative field that people have. Yes,

687
00:35:51,280 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 7: keying and psychedelics.

688
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 2: You listen to Disraeli gears and you know not that

689
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 2: I know anything about that.

690
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 6: But no, not, of course not.

691
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 7: But the FDA says they ketamine is not good for

692
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 7: mental health treatment.

693
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 6: They don't recommend it.

694
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 1: Psychedelics are beginning to find some adherents beyond Silicon Valley

695
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: who say the drugs make them better at their jobs

696
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 1: by expanding imaginations or taming doubts about their abilities, though

697
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 1: supporting researchers limited.

698
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 7: Go figure.

699
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is an a Wall Street journal.

700
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 6: And it is so we'll see if it if it

701
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 6: kind of picks up, but keta means more, thank you.

702
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 6: More workers are kind of getting behind it and hopping

703
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 6: on the train. We'll see.

704
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, thank you, Lisa. That was your newspapers, Lisa

705
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 2: Matello with our newspapers. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast,

706
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

707
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,240
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708
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show

709
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,719
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710
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,560
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711
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,600
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712
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app,