WEBVTT - Interview Only w/ Eyck Freymann - Will China Invade Taiwan & Would Trump Go To War To Stop Them? 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.040 This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you 0:00:02.080 --> 0:00:04.440 by Ethos and what Ethos does is it helps you 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:06.880 find life insurance. Let me tell you why life insurance 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:09.360 bailed me out. My father died when I was sixteen. 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:11.680 We didn't have a lot of money when it happened, 0:00:11.800 --> 0:00:14.640 and we were in a pretty tough financial spot after 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:18.520 it happened. I'm an only child. Suddenly my mother's single, 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.360 single mother. She had a job, suddenly lost a job, 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:23.799 looking for another job, and we were struggling. You know, 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:26.720 my dad didn't leave us in the best financial situation, 0:00:27.040 --> 0:00:29.080 but he did make one purchase. 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Application times may 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:48.040 vary and rates may vary. So while we are rightfully 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.320 focused on what is happening in the Middle East with Iran, 0:01:52.400 --> 0:01:54.920 we've taken our eyes off the ball in two foreign 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.640 policy stories. When I say we the collective, I guess 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:00.320 political media have a little bit. One is, of course 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:04.480 the war in Ukraine, and then the other is all 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:08.000 is the pivot to Asia. I sort of joke about that. 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:11.120 I'm old enough to remember in Obama's second term the 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:16.680 pivot to Asia and even the first Trump administration realizing, yeah, 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:20.200 you know, the whole point of being energy independent was 0:02:20.440 --> 0:02:24.639 to then confront China and the pivot to Asia. We have, 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:28.440 i think, still waiting for that pivot. But my next 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:30.880 guest has a book on a topic. As you know, 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.480 I've been covering it, probably a bit more than your 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:37.240 average political podcaster has covered, which is the issue of 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:41.000 Taiwan and the fact that twenty twenty seven, which was 0:02:41.120 --> 0:02:45.119 a marker that the Chinese had sort of set as 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.520 sort of the is sort of when she wanted the 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:53.240 Chinese military to be prepared to take Taiwan by force 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:58.760 if necessary, is suddenly getting a lot closer. Right, object, 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:02.440 the object in this Mirrea is quite close now, being 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:05.520 twenty twenty seven. So the question is where's this going, 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:09.600 where's this headed? And given what's been what we're still 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:13.480 experiencing with the war in Ukraine, what frankly the United 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:16.160 States has gotten itself into when it comes to Iran, 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:18.880 what does this mean for Taiwan. Well, my guess is 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:23.400 Ike Freiman. He is the authors from of a new 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:28.040 book called Defending Taiwan, a Strategy to prevent war with China, 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.120 and he joins me. Now, Ike, it is nice to 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:31.480 meet you. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:33.760 Crazy meets you, Chuck. It's a pleasure to be on 0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:34.120 the show. 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:40.800 So let's start with the premise of your book. When 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:45.280 you say defending Taiwan and a strategy. Is this a 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:49.320 diplomatic strategy that you want to outline, A military strategy, 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:56.880 a strategy of deterrence, a strategy to eventually recognize independence 0:03:56.920 --> 0:03:57.960 for Taiwan? What is it? 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:01.920 This is a strategy you to prevent a devastating war 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:05.160 with China, something that I think should be a goal 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:09.080 uniting democrats, republicans, everyone in between. And a strategy to 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:12.560 preserve an honorable piece in the Taiwan straight but also 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:14.960 in the region as a whole. Something we can get 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:18.320 into on this show is that Taiwan's fate is just 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:21.400 connected to the fate of the broader region. The United 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:26.360 States does not support Taiwan independence. We have a long 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:30.599 standing one China policy. It's decades old, it served us well, 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:32.320 it's helped to deter war in the past. 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:34.800 I appreciate you saying that we've had a couple of 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:41.880 presidents who seem to utter some sentences that put that 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:45.800 policy in question. I mean, Joe Biden said some things 0:04:45.839 --> 0:04:48.000 out loud that no American president had said when it 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:50.799 came to promising support for Taiwan. 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:54.280 That's true, and the One China policy is funny. It's 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.160 a bit like a magic incantation because we talk a 0:04:57.200 --> 0:04:59.800 lot about it, but the substance of it is sort 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.160 of was shifting and evolving. But that's okay, because there 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:05.160 really is no such thing as a status quo in 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:09.280 the Taiwan straight there never has been. There's a military balance, 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:13.239 there's a diplomatic balance. The idea of the One China 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.800 Policy is that on the whole, we support peace and 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.440 stability in this region. We don't take a position as 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:25.520 to how Taiwan's status is ultimately decided. That's something for 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:29.839 Taiwan and for Beijing to work out by themselves. But 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:33.320 we don't want that to be resolved by force or 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:37.479 by coercion. And especially since Taiwan has become a democracy, 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.719 we want it to be democratically acceptable to the people 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:44.880 of Taiwan. Why because Taiwan's fate for reasons of geography 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.039 and a whole lot else is just tied up to 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:51.600 the fate of our treaty allies Japan, South Korea, Australia 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:55.880 and beyond. And there's no way to prevent catastrophic cascading 0:05:55.920 --> 0:06:00.000 consequences in this region if Taiwan falls by force or coercion. 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:05.080 You know, whenever great powers shoot themselves in the foot, 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:11.279 it's usually because they have a leader who's obsessed with 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:15.359 an historic wrong in their mind, right, it is not 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:21.200 usually about the current situation. Take Putin with Ukraine. He 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.600 just believes Nope, Ukraine is not a country, it's part 0:06:24.640 --> 0:06:28.200 of Russia. And I get the same sense from she 0:06:28.800 --> 0:06:30.919 right that he views right. You you even say this 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:36.040 that you label that Tay wants. He sees it as 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:41.760 a lynchpin to what you call national rejuvenation. Yeah, which 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:47.359 means it's an ideological obsession, right of the leaders. But 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:56.919 what is it other? Why do they take aside pride history? 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:00.480 And maybe that is the strongest reasoning that they want 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:04.400 what's the practical reason that they want this so bad? 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:07.880 It's a great question. This is how we should start. 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:11.840 So as you say, Taiwan is the unfinished business of 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:17.600 the Chinese Civil War, and especially since Taiwan has democratized. 0:07:18.080 --> 0:07:21.720 Since Taiwan has become this staggering success of one of 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:26.760 the most open and prosperous and technologically advanced societies on Earth, 0:07:27.760 --> 0:07:31.560 having it across the strait is a bit uncomfortable for 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:35.920 the Chinese Communist Party, right because it's a living, breathing 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:40.120 example of what another China could have looked like, a 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:44.600 China that is both wealthier and more technologically advanced and 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:50.200 accepted in the international community and free. So that's understandable, 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:53.840 and season Ping is deeply invested in this issue, but 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:57.360 so were his predecessors. And you know, to study the 0:07:57.400 --> 0:08:01.000 history of this issue is to see that going back 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:04.280 all the way to Mao, Chinese leaders have lusted after 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:07.600 this prize and they have turned it into a domestic 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:13.280 propaganda object. So the thing to understand, though, is that 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:16.640 from the very beginning it has always been entwined with 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.080 relations with the United States. When the Communists took over 0:08:20.120 --> 0:08:24.400 the mainland in the fall of nineteen forty nine, Now 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:28.760 immediately gave his general's instructions to plan an invasion of Taiwan, 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:31.800 and they looked into what an amphibious operation would look like, 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.520 and they decided can't be done because the island's geography 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:39.360 is just extremely difficult, and they've been working on that 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:42.120 problem for seventy years and I think they're not satisfied yet, 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:45.320 but they're getting closer. Why does it matter. The first 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.880 reason is geography. So Taiwan is a link in the 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:52.839 first island chain, an archipelago that goes from Japan actually 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.120 starting in the Russian Curl Islands, all the way down 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:58.040 into the South China Sea. And you sort of have 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:02.199 to look at a topographic map because in between those islands, 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:05.840 the sea is often so shallow that you can't navigate through. 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:10.880 So there's only a few choke points in between these 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:12.960 islands that you can actually navigate through. And that means 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:16.720 China's navy, which is now the world's largest in fleet size, 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:18.760 is like a burd in a cage. They're trapped in 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:22.040 these little inland seas, the Yellow Sea, the East China See, 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.480 the South Tennessee, and they want to burst out into 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:28.600 the wider waters of the Western Pacific to project power globally, 0:09:29.400 --> 0:09:32.520 but they can't do it as long as the US 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:35.800 has allies and partners all astride that island chain. So 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.960 that's the first reason. A second reason is the semiconductor 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:43.440 of fabrication facilities on Taiwan. And then the third reason 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:48.000 is the role that Taiwan plays in the regional economic order, 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:51.360 and the way that Taiwan might fall would set a 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:54.920 precedent for China's ability to use economic coercion against other 0:09:54.920 --> 0:09:56.680 countries in the region. And you put these all together 0:09:56.720 --> 0:09:59.520 and you see, if they can get this, all of 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:02.680 the dominant fall and they can achieve national rejuvenation pretty quick. 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:08.319 Okay, I mean, I hear the case, but it still 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:12.360 feels more ideological and caught up in history books, and 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:16.440 it really is kind of me Chi wants no threat 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:22.720 to China. China's built this massive economy. China's probably going 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:26.360 to catch up in the chip space we see. You know, 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:30.000 you know what is a necessity is the mother of 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:34.400 all invention, right, they have to innovate here. So this 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:38.760 still feels like a vanity project more than an actual 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:40.120 strategic necessity. 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.880 So I think the overall point that it's nice to have, 0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.760 not need to have, is right. And I end the 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:54.880 book with vignette of the last time I was in 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:58.199 Beijing in twenty twenty three, where I went to the 0:10:58.320 --> 0:11:02.360 National museum in Tiana and Square, and I went to 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:07.040 this exhibit in the museum called Road to Rejuvenation, which 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.760 tracks the century of Humiliation and then the party's rise 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:13.600 and rule and season. Pain is obsessed with this exhibit. 0:11:14.000 --> 0:11:15.840 One of the first things he did after taking power 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:17.640 in twenty twelve is he took the whole polyp or 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:21.280 standing committee there, and he said, this exhibit records our 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:23.040 history and our present, and we're going to write the 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:26.400 next chapter together. And then he added in twenty eighteen 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:30.080 this glitzy new annex to celebrate his achievements in the 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:34.200 so called New Era. And it's kind of interesting because 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:36.880 the museum is packed with tourists from all over China 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:41.160 and this exhibit the museum is, this exhibit is not. 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:45.640 It's empty, completely empty. I was there alone for two hours, 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:49.479 and you can see the scope of his ambition. Military 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:51.960 stuff is clearly part of it, but there's also a 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.880 whole wall devoted to ethnic minorities where he's smiling serenely 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:58.600 as the harmonized ethnic minorities sing and dance. And there's 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:01.440 another about how China is going with green mountains and 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:04.840 electric vehicles, and there's another of him you know, cheering 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:07.600 athletes at the at the Olympics, and you see that 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:10.360 National rejuvenation is about putting China at the forefront of 0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:15.600 literally every human endeavor, literally every human endeavor. It's about 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:20.760 getting rich, technologically advanced, green, harmonious, culturally advanced. And so 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.439 Taiwan is the lynchment of that arch. But if he 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.720 rolls the iron dice, he has a whole lot to lose. 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.200 And that is the that's the double edged sword of 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.199 his ambition, and that is ultimately why he is deterrible. 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:34.880 But you have to show him that if he messes 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.120 up over Taiwan, he could put the whole project in jeopardy. 0:12:38.360 --> 0:12:42.800 Well, this, let's get to deterrence here. I am. I 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:48.760 am a real pessimist when it comes to Taiwan because 0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:52.920 I think that if and this is where I'm not 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:56.760 going to pretend I'm an expert in how how Chinese 0:12:57.040 --> 0:13:01.360 communist policy decision making comes. But if you're just doing 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:06.160 game theory in your China and you look at the 0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:12.960 current geopolitical situation, you're never going to probably have a 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:16.440 more pliant American president than the one you have now. 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:23.160 The United States is stretched right now financially and militarily 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.840 particularly we're seeing it in the Middleast where suddenly we're 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:28.760 going to end up not being able to sell certain 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:34.080 things to Ukraine because we need it for the war 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:40.040 with Iran. And if there's ever a time to do it, 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.840 it's probably while Trump's still president in this current situation, 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:48.320 especially since now the appetite with the American public. You know, 0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:55.120 whatever whatever anti China sentiment one can use to rally 0:13:55.160 --> 0:14:00.000 the rally Americans around the flag is a lot harder 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.240 are already due to the unpopularity of this war with 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:06.520 the run right. And you know, I sort of I 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:10.120 have always wondered in my head, boy, is it how 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:14.920 do you sell the American public on defending this island 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:19.840 halfway around the globe right that American blood and treasure 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.240 should be used to defend this island. I think it's 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.800 just very difficult, just in the current moment we're in 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.200 the lack of credibility American political institutions have with the 0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.000 average voter these days, so you're just going to have 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:35.520 a lot of skepticism. You know how the Chinese think 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.000 better than I do. You're the expert here, Am I 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:42.840 off a? Am I overthinking? This is this not how 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:43.760 the Chinese are thinking. 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:46.320 I think there's a lot of truth in what you say, 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:52.120 but I don't fully agree. I fully agree that the 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:56.640 remainder of Trump's term is a uniquely tempting moment because 0:14:56.680 --> 0:15:01.760 Trump is so transactional, because he doesn't think strategically. 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.360 Look, the Chinese think they may may be able to 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:09.400 get our defense of Taiwan as part of the trade negotiation. 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:14.520 Absolutely, so there's everything out. There's every reason for them 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.200 to try to see what they can get out of 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:21.360 Trump at the negotiating table, and then, failing that, to 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:26.800 squeeze him and see what he gives up. And I 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:30.960 think when we talk about dates, we need to recognize 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.880 it's not a question of whether China does it or doesn't. 0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:40.360 They are already doing it. They are squeezing Taiwan right now. 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.680 It's a coersion right now, every direction. 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:47.360 It's the Boa Constrictor strategy using every tool of their 0:15:47.440 --> 0:15:51.640 national power, Squeezing Taiwanese airlines to list themselves as Chinese 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:55.240 on their websites, you know, pressuring third countries to extradite 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:59.520 Taiwanese nationals to Taiwan to China for trial, you know, 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.640 establishing a like a near permanent presence of drones and 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.840 other stuff all around the airspace and waters around Taiwan. 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.920 Getting other countries that had diplomatic relations with Taiwan to 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.280 drop it. Yeah, and they've coerced a few to do 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:13.200 that exactly. 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:18.240 So the question becomes, I think their plan a is 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:21.080 just squeeze Taiwan to death, or squeeze Taiwan to the 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.840 point where it, like Hong Kong realizes no one the 0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:27.240 cavalry isn't coming. We just have to negotiate, and then 0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.120 we signed some piece. They signed some piece of paper 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:32.360 that says one country, two systems, Taiwan version. And then 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.360 she's in Pinte Claar's victory. And that's that's the Hong 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.040 Kong model. And that's a lot more attractive than rolling 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:40.320 the dice on an invasion, which is Russia showed in 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:41.200 Ukraine could go wrong. 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:41.840 Right. 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:48.960 But here's the thing, China has a political calendar too. 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:55.600 Twenty twenty seven is a Party Congress year. And remember 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:59.880 the last Party Congress year. Granted it was COVID, but 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.040 it was also COVID was over everywhere in the world. 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.160 She's in paying locked everyone in their house for. 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:05.800 A year, we took advantage of it. 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:08.560 For another, that's how paranoid he was going into the 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:12.520 last party Congress to get his third term. So now 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.720 he's going up for a fourth term. He's completely cleared 0:17:15.760 --> 0:17:20.720 out the top brass in the People's Liberation Army. I mean, 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.240 do you really think there aren't more purges coming? 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:25.840 Well? What do we how should we read these purges? 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:29.920 I mean, you know, I thought, I think look as usual, right, 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:36.000 you know, we Americans, our American political leaders are just 0:17:36.200 --> 0:17:39.439 terrible at putting ourselves in somebody else's shoes, whether it 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:43.760 was Bush looking into the soul of Putin or Biden 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:47.560 and his friendship as when when she was vice Premier, 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:52.920 and frankly the wrong assumptions he made about the related 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.480 personal relationship he had developed with him. I think there's 0:17:56.560 --> 0:18:00.680 been a there's just been massive miscalculations on the American 0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.960 side of things when it comes to both Putin and she. 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:09.800 She's a much she's got a much bigger appetite, I think, 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:11.840 at least in his head. Then I think a lot 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.479 of us thought, and I don't think we view Chinese 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:17.119 leaders in the same way we view Russian leaders. I 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:20.639 guess whatever it is or we just we assumed there'd 0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:25.600 be pragmatism and transactionalism, because for the most part, that's 0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:28.600 how the Chinese have behaved diplomatically around the world. They're 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:33.200 very transactional, and so I think that is probably given 0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:37.480 us false hope. But internally she's behaving like a paranoid dictator. 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.760 Well, I mean, he's not a man who's given a 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:47.639 whole lot of interviews, So in his biography you can 0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:49.679 read the tea leaves and come up with your own 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:51.360 psychoanalytical profile. 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.440 Yeah, we seem like we don't know much about them, 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:54.240 but we don't. 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.040 But we do know that when he was I mean, 0:18:57.080 --> 0:19:01.439 Joseph Tarisian, my former Hoover colleague, is a wonderful biography 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:02.040 of his father. 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.920 Yes, I've had I've interviewed him for this page picture 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.920 for the same reason because I'm obsessed with trying to 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:12.119 learn more about she. And it's interesting that it was 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:14.040 it was easier to write a book about his father, 0:19:14.320 --> 0:19:15.560 and it is about him. 0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:18.720 And Joseph went to all these former archives in the 0:19:18.920 --> 0:19:22.440 post Soviet world. But what you see is, you know, 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:25.840 a portrait of a young man who was raised as 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.920 much of a princeling as a princely can be, and 0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:33.520 he has everything ripped away from him. He is everything 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:36.280 ripped away, and he's sent down to the countryside to 0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:40.639 be re educated by pig farmers and his education is disrupted, 0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:44.040 so so he has to get essentially fake degrees later on, 0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:49.680 and his sister kills herself because of the harassment. This 0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:53.639 is a deeply traumatic moment and his his his conclusion 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:56.320 is he's going to join the party, become redder than red. 0:19:58.560 --> 0:20:02.040 But it's a it's a traumatic experience in his young 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.720 life which shows him that no matter how much security 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:10.119 and status and fame you have, it can come apart 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:13.000 very quickly. And I think what we know about him. 0:20:13.080 --> 0:20:16.760 Kevin Rudd, the former Australian Prime Minister, speaks beautiful Chinese 0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:19.159 and has spent time with him. Rudd recalls in his 0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:21.840 book You Know, sitting with Season Ping by a bonfire 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:24.120 and talking with him about the world and just being 0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:27.000 taken by how afraid he is of color, revolutions and 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.000 all these things that could tear China apart. So I 0:20:30.040 --> 0:20:31.720 think if your Season Ping and you look at this 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:38.919 Taiwan question, you're deeply skeptical about your your forces. When 0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:41.960 your generals say no, we can do this, I think 0:20:43.440 --> 0:20:45.560 I think you look at this and you say, there's 0:20:45.560 --> 0:20:47.240 a whole lot of ways that this could go wrong, 0:20:47.800 --> 0:20:51.359 that the Americans could use this issue against me, and 0:20:51.440 --> 0:20:55.240 I think you are not in a hurry. I think 0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:57.640 he does want to be the guy who gets it done, 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:00.720 but I think he's very happy to do this through 0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:05.080 a diplomatic solution that involves signing a piece of paper 0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:07.879 that allows him to declare victory and then kicking the 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:11.199 reintegration or whatever to his successor. This is the thing 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:15.240 about national rejuvenation, right. It's a wonderful goal to set 0:21:15.720 --> 0:21:18.520 because the deadline is twenty forty nine, when he'll be 0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:21.720 ninety six years old, so he can claim credit for 0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:24.920 it all. But if there's anything that's not quite many 0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:27.440 loose ends that aren't quite wrapped up, he can pass 0:21:27.480 --> 0:21:30.320 in his successor with no loss of face. And I 0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.080 think that's important. He hasn't tied his hands here. If 0:21:33.119 --> 0:21:35.760 you go into the National Museum, it's not like he's 0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:38.680 saving a wall or a trophy case in the exhibit 0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:41.640 for Taiwan. There's just not a mention of Taiwan. 0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:47.680 This episode of the check podcast is brought to you 0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:50.080 by Soul. 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You probably have rank and file i 0:23:49.680 --> 0:23:52.280 C members that don't trust the leaders. You also have 0:23:52.320 --> 0:23:54.600 other countries not wanting to share with the US anymore 0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:56.680 because of this. I mean, there's a there's sort of 0:23:56.720 --> 0:24:01.680