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Speaker 1: The economy is a top issue for Americans heading into

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Speaker 1: this presidential election, with the majority of Americans believing and

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Speaker 1: feeling like they were better off under Donald Trump than

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Speaker 1: they are now under Joe Biden. So what is fueling that,

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Speaker 1: you know, what is fueling this inflation that we're seeing

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Speaker 1: in this country as well? And how does Trump's economy

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Speaker 1: stack up against Joe Biden's. We're going to ask EJ.

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Speaker 1: And Tony, a research fellow for the Heritage Foundation, he's

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Speaker 1: also a public finance economist about all of this. Also,

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Speaker 1: get his take on younger voters under thirty going for Trump,

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Speaker 1: how much of that has to do with increased home

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Speaker 1: costs and just this economy at large. Also, we're going

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Speaker 1: to get into something that's not being discussed as much,

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden's job numbers being fueled by immigrants, all of

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Speaker 1: that more with the heritages ej Antoni. Well, EJ, thanks

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Speaker 1: for coming back on. It's nice to have you on

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Speaker 1: the show.

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Speaker 2: Well, Lisa, it's my pleasure. Thank you for having me again.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think the economic news has gotten any better,

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Speaker 1: but we'll get into it. Nonetheless, you know, we see

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Speaker 1: that inflation is up three point five percent over last year.

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Speaker 1: You know, overall prices are up nineteen point four percent

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Speaker 1: percent since Joe Biden took office. How has that impacted Americans.

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Speaker 2: It's been pretty devastating, Lisa, especially when you factor in

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Speaker 2: not just the price increases, but now also the interest

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Speaker 2: rate increases. And the reason I bring that second piece

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Speaker 2: up is because so many people had to adapt to

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Speaker 2: these higher prices by either going out and getting more work,

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Speaker 2: or if they couldn't, if they weren't able to make

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Speaker 2: enough to have ends meet, then they still had to

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Speaker 2: go into debt after depleting their savings. So now with

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Speaker 2: that additional debt load, these higher interest rates have caused

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Speaker 2: the cost of service that debt. In other words, you're

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Speaker 2: like your monthly finance charges on things like your credit

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Speaker 2: card statements to absolutely explode. American families today are paying

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Speaker 2: about two hundred and fifty billion dollars a year just

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Speaker 2: an interest on their credit cards. That's just one type

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Speaker 2: of debt, and it's just the interest. We're not talking

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Speaker 2: about paying down the principle. So you combine these higher

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Speaker 2: prices with higher prices, I should say that I've risen

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Speaker 2: faster than wages with these higher interest costs, and you're

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Speaker 2: looking at for the typical American family about an eight

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars loss compared to January of twenty twenty one.

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Speaker 2: In other words, in a little more than three years,

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Speaker 2: you feel like you're eight thousand dollars poor a year.

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Speaker 1: You know, as we head into the twenty twenty four election,

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Speaker 1: even you know more as it starts to accelerate as

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Speaker 1: we get closer. You see that the economy is a

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Speaker 1: top issue for Americans. Joe Biden's upside down on the issue.

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Speaker 1: There's been pullings showing that the majority of Americans feel

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Speaker 1: like they were better off under Trump than they are

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Speaker 1: now under Biden. I guess, how would you compare the

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Speaker 1: two economies, the one we had under Trump and then

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Speaker 1: the one we have now under Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think you have to look at how the

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Speaker 2: typical American was doing. And you saw wages for good

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Speaker 2: paying blue collar jobs rising much faster than prices under

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Speaker 2: President Trump, and you've seen exactly the opposite under Biden.

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Speaker 2: You saw the cost to own a home relative to

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Speaker 2: the size of people's incomes go down under Trump, it

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Speaker 2: has exploded under Biden. You mentioned those inflation statistics at

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Speaker 2: the start of the show. I mean, one of the

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Speaker 2: things that is grossly understated in those inflation numbers is

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Speaker 2: the cost to own a home. According to the Consumer

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Speaker 2: Price Index, that cost is up about twenty percent over

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Speaker 2: the last three years. But if you actually use real

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Speaker 2: world data instead of their crazy methodology, so look at

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Speaker 2: home prices, look at interest rates, look at things like

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Speaker 2: property taxes, home insurance rates, et cetera, you find that

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Speaker 2: the actual cost is up somewhere between eighty and one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent, in other words, four to five times what

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Speaker 2: the quote unquote official government metrics says. And so not

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Speaker 2: only do the statistics look better under Trump compared to Biden,

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Speaker 2: but I think the real world experience that Americans have

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Speaker 2: was way better under Trump than under Biden. At least

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Speaker 2: I think that helps explain why, even though the economic

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Speaker 2: numbers have improved at least slightly the last several months,

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Speaker 2: maybe under Biden. They are the polling that when people

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Speaker 2: when we ask folks, okay, how do you feel about

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Speaker 2: the economy, it remains horrible. And it's because people's lived

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Speaker 2: experience has been horrible, much worse than the official data

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Speaker 2: would suggest.

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Speaker 1: You know, we're saying Trump do much better with voters

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Speaker 1: under thirty. I think, in part personally, just because a

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Speaker 1: lot of young people are realizing, you know, what is

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Speaker 1: my future if you know this economy continues the way

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Speaker 1: that it is. Now. You had mentioned the increased cost

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Speaker 1: of what it takes to own a home. What's behind that?

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Speaker 1: You know, what do you think is driving that?

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Speaker 2: It's this deadly combination of very high home prices and

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Speaker 2: very high interest rates. Now, I should say, you know, historically,

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Speaker 2: if we were to ask our grandparents, a our great grandparents,

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Speaker 2: what do you think of a seven or eight percent mortgage?

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Speaker 2: They were said, yeah, that's normal. But we've gotten used

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Speaker 2: to these artificially low interest rates that the FED has

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Speaker 2: imposed for you know, twenty twenty five years, and so

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Speaker 2: this is a shock to the system, if you will.

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Speaker 2: But basically, Lisa, when the government went out and spent

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Speaker 2: trillions of dollars, it didn't have it caused inflation, that

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Speaker 2: caused prices to rise everywhere. But because the FED had

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Speaker 2: kept rates so low, close to zero, it meant that

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Speaker 2: people could continuously bid up the price of homes and

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Speaker 2: pay almost nothing in interest each month. So all they

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Speaker 2: were having to pay in that monthly payment was the

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Speaker 2: price of the home, so you caused home prices to

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Speaker 2: go out much faster than the average price. Then the

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Speaker 2: FED imposes higher rates to deal with the inflation that

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Speaker 2: it helped cause. So now you have this combination of

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Speaker 2: high rates and high prices, which means your monthly mortgage

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Speaker 2: payment has gone through the roof. But if you look

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Speaker 2: at what's happened with people who already owned a home,

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Speaker 2: or who got a home, I should say in let's

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Speaker 2: say twenty twenty or even twenty twenty one, when rates

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Speaker 2: were rock bottom, but before home prices went up. If

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Speaker 2: you sell that home today you want to move, let's say,

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Speaker 2: maybe have a job, a job offer to go somewhere else,

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Speaker 2: you now are going to lose that mortgage and you

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Speaker 2: have to get a new mortgage at today's mortgage rates,

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Speaker 2: which means you need to sell your home at a

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Speaker 2: huge premium in order to have a big enough down

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Speaker 2: payment to have a small enough mortgage that counteracts the

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Speaker 2: higher mortgage rates. So this means that the supply of

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Speaker 2: existing homes has been severely crunched. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: these high input costs from the inflation have caused the

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Speaker 2: construction cost to build a home to also go through

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Speaker 2: the roof, and those higher prices have really also put

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Speaker 2: a damper on construction of new homes. So you're getting

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Speaker 2: this double whammy where the supply of existing homes or

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Speaker 2: used homes and the supply of new homes have also

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Speaker 2: have both come way down. And so this this has

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Speaker 2: severely hamstrung the market to the point where prices just

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Speaker 2: can't come down, even though interest rates remain really high.

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Speaker 2: So at the end of the day, if you were

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Speaker 2: to summarize all of that in a single word, unaffordability.

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden's announced that he's going to cancel a student

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Speaker 1: loan debt for twenty three million people, which really just

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Speaker 1: means the rest of us are paying for it. What

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Speaker 1: do you think Joe Biden's going to try to do

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Speaker 1: one to sort of buy votes, like he's doing with that,

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Speaker 1: but also to try to like boost the economy temporarily.

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Speaker 1: You know, what sort of tools do you think he's

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Speaker 1: going to use? You know, kind of what does that

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Speaker 1: look like to you?

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Speaker 2: Well, listening to him today at that just horrendous excuse

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Speaker 2: for a press conference where he was literally reading the

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Speaker 2: questions and the answers off prepared pre prepared note cards.

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Speaker 2: It was a But then he has the audacity to

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Speaker 2: say that, oh, the Fed's still going to cut rates.

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Speaker 2: Who are you? You don't set monetary policy. Or maybe

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Speaker 2: he does and we just don't know it. But whatever

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Speaker 2: the case, I think it's very clear they are exerting

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Speaker 2: a tremendous amount of pressure on the Fed to cut

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Speaker 2: rates before the election, to try to give exactly that

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Speaker 2: economic boost you were just talking about, Lisa, to try to,

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Speaker 2: you know, put lipstick on the pig before the election,

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Speaker 2: and then after the first Tuesday in November it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: Then then they can hike rates back up again. Then

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Speaker 2: we can find out that the jobs numbers were all

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Speaker 2: a lie all along, that inflation has been much worse

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Speaker 2: than we were told. Right, they just have to get

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Speaker 2: through election day at this point.

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Speaker 1: I mean, how much lipstick can you put on the

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Speaker 1: pig in this instance?

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Speaker 2: That's a great question. I mean, if you ask the

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Speaker 2: folks in the White House, they think that the sky's

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Speaker 2: the limit. But I think the average American is really

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Speaker 2: seeing through it. I think they've seen through it for

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Speaker 2: quite a while now, you know, lying to people in

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Speaker 2: telling folks don't believe you're lying, eyes, don't believe you're

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Speaker 2: empty wallets. I mean, that only works for so long,

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Speaker 2: and I think we're past that point. There was just

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Speaker 2: a I think it was on MSNBC. I didn't watch

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Speaker 2: it because I like preserving my brain cells, but I

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Speaker 2: saw it reviewed by a different news outlet where there

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Speaker 2: was this panel of voters, all of whom voted for Biden,

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Speaker 2: and now all of whom are saying, for purely economic reasons,

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Speaker 2: they refuse to do so again because they have just

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Speaker 2: been hurt so dramatically by the failed public policies of

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Speaker 2: this administration.

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Speaker 1: Quick break more with ej Antoni on the other side.

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Speaker 1: One big issue that doesn't get discussed as much as

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Speaker 1: Biden's job growth in the country being fueled by migrants.

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Speaker 1: What should people know about that?

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Speaker 2: Well, if you're an if you're a typical American, you're

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Speaker 2: a native born American, you're an American citizen, you have

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Speaker 2: really been left behind in the economy of the last

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Speaker 2: four years. And you can actually compare the employment of

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Speaker 2: Native born Americans today to where it was before the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: We have lost so much ground that figure is down

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Speaker 2: by a million so there are a million fewer native

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Speaker 2: born Americans employed. Well, where have all these jobs gone?

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Speaker 2: Who is getting all of these jobs? It is all

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Speaker 2: foreign born workers. And a couple of estimates, including some

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Speaker 2: by large financial firms, have pegged the figure at about

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Speaker 2: two thirds of all jobs created since February of twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty have gone to not just the foreign born, but

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Speaker 2: illegal aliens specifically. And what was it, I think it

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Speaker 2: was only a few weeks ago, right, Lisa, that Tyson

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Speaker 2: Foods I believe, announced that they were firing all of

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Speaker 2: these Americans in order to HIE in order to hire foreigners. Now,

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Speaker 2: in that case, presumably they're going to have working papers

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Speaker 2: and whatnot, but it doesn't matter at the end of

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Speaker 2: the day. You are putting foreigners before Americans. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 2: but we did not elect our representatives to go to

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Speaker 2: DC to put other citizens of other countries before us.

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Speaker 2: This is absolutely appalling.

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Speaker 1: And also I would assume that you know, that'll be

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Speaker 1: also reflected in the sentiment on the economy in the country,

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Speaker 1: because if people aren't getting these jobs, then they're not

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Speaker 1: feeling you know, even if you say, oh, the X

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Speaker 1: amount of job growth, Americans aren't feeling that because they're

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Speaker 1: not getting those jobs.

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Speaker 2: Exactly, Lisa. That is such a great point when you

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Speaker 2: are polling likely voters and asking them, how do you

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Speaker 2: feel about the economy? Well, if they're not the ones

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Speaker 2: getting the jobs, what do you think is going to

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Speaker 2: be the response? Obviously it's going to be the case

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Speaker 2: then that they are not happy with the economy because

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Speaker 2: they're not the ones getting any of the benefits, but

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Speaker 2: they're still the ones stuck paying the higher costs from

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Speaker 2: your inflation.

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Speaker 1: Mister President, what do you think are some of the

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Speaker 1: big economic issues that don't get discussed enough in your opinion?

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Speaker 2: Oh goodness, I think one of the really big ones

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Speaker 2: is the fact that the treasury borrowing at the breakneck

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Speaker 2: pace it is is going to have some very catastrophic effects,

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Speaker 2: not just in terms of inflation, but also in terms

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Speaker 2: of financial markets. You can't underestimate I think just how

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Speaker 2: much Janet Yellen is sucking all the air out of

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Speaker 2: the room with these massive treasury auctions. Shortly after we

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Speaker 2: got those terrible inflation numbers for the CPI, the Treasury

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Speaker 2: did a ten year auction, meaning they were auctioning off

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Speaker 2: these treasury notes which are going to be repaid in

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Speaker 2: ten years and it was absolutely horrendous. And so what

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Speaker 2: you were seeing is investors continuously demanding more and more

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Speaker 2: in terms of compensation to loan to the government because

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Speaker 2: they have zero confidence that they are going to get

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Speaker 2: back dollars that are worth much. And as that continues happening,

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Speaker 2: the treasury is forced to offer higher and higher interest rates,

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Speaker 2: which will pull in more investors. We're pulling investors out

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Speaker 2: of other investments. So right before, for example, we had

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Speaker 2: the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others, what was

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Speaker 2: going on with treasuries a very similar phenomenon, And the

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Speaker 2: effects I think this time are going to be very

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Speaker 2: similar to as you suck all of this liquidity out

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Speaker 2: of locations where it's currently being used and is currently needed,

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Speaker 2: you're going to have some very disastrous effects on financial markets.

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Speaker 1: And of course, the spending doesn't look to be, you know,

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Speaker 1: slowing down at all. You know, I think is budget

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Speaker 1: It looks like I think there's like a seven point

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Speaker 1: three trillion dollar budget request proposal for a fisk gear

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Speaker 1: fiscal year twenty twenty five. I guess what does that

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Speaker 1: mean for the future of the country.

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Speaker 2: More of the same. I wish it was something other

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Speaker 2: than that, Lisa, But this point you bring up is

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Speaker 2: so important. The size of government spending is what's driving this.

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Speaker 2: You know, the government, as much as they can create

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Speaker 2: money out of thin air, they can't create value out

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Speaker 2: of thin air. And so as they continue to expend

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Speaker 2: more and more in terms of value, that value has

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Speaker 2: to come from somewhere. It is coming out of your

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Speaker 2: hide right now through the hidden tax of inflation, but

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Speaker 2: it's also coming out of future production, future output, which

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Speaker 2: means it's going to be paid for by future generations.

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Speaker 2: We are basically shackling ourselves with unpayable levels of debt.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is getting genuinely scary. And I look,

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Speaker 2: I'm not a perma bear. I'm not one of those

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Speaker 2: people who for the last ten or twenty years has

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Speaker 2: been saying, oh, the end is near, We're spending too

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Speaker 2: much money.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: No, this is a big economy and it can support

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Speaker 2: a whole hell of a lot of government spending, but

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Speaker 2: not at these levels. I mean, we are to the

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Speaker 2: point now where if you look at mandatory government spending

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Speaker 2: and then let's also throw in interest on the debt,

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Speaker 2: since that's effectively mandatory spending as well, no discretionary spending.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not even including major categories like defense here.

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Speaker 2: We're just talking about the spending that is essentially baked

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Speaker 2: into the cake, if you will, that already exceeds all

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Speaker 2: government tax revenue. In other words, we have a deficit

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Speaker 2: to begin with, and all of the additional spending that

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Speaker 2: they want to pile on with these ridiculous seven trillion

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Speaker 2: dollar budgets, it is just adding fuel and fuel on

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Speaker 2: the fire.

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Speaker 1: We're being told that the odds of a US recession

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Speaker 1: have dropped a little bit. I think I read somewhere

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Speaker 1: that it's dropped to thirty three percent. They're saying, or

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Speaker 1: the strong economic data is cut the chance of an

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Speaker 1: economic downturn in the next year to thirty three percent

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Speaker 1: according to Bankrate. Do you buy that? You know, how

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Speaker 1: close to a recession are we? You know, what kind

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Speaker 1: of do you think the next few months are going

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Speaker 1: to look like for the economy.

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Speaker 2: It's a really good question. I think one of the

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Speaker 2: things that's important to remember, Lisa is that you can

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Speaker 2: put off a technical recession for a really, really long

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Speaker 2: time if you're willing to have the government and the

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Speaker 2: consumer alike go into massive amounts of debt in order

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Speaker 2: to keep up spending levels. Well, that's pretty much what

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Speaker 2: we've been seeing for quite a while. Now we're seeing

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Speaker 2: household debt explode. The national debt obviously is exploding. It's

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Speaker 2: over thirty four point six trillion dollars. We have never

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Speaker 2: had a mortgage debt, credit card debt, etc. At the

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Speaker 2: levels we have them today, despite the fact that interest

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Speaker 2: rates again have marched pretty steadily higher. And so what's

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Speaker 2: happening is, as you continue to borrow from the future,

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Speaker 2: you are continuing to draw that spending and that production

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Speaker 2: into today. But eventually it's all got to get paid for.

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Speaker 2: And the problem is that the further you kick this

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Speaker 2: can down the road, the worse the eventual drop becomes.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the reasons why, for example, when Alan

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Speaker 2: Greenspan continuously kept rates artificially low in the early two thousands,

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Speaker 2: the housing collapse and the global financial crisis were as

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Speaker 2: bad as they were in two thousand and seven, eight

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Speaker 2: and nine, because they kept kicking the can down the

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Speaker 2: road instead of allowing the free mark market to resolve

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Speaker 2: these problems, they kept putting it off, and every time

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Speaker 2: they did it snowballed a little bit more and more,

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Speaker 2: and sadly that's what's happening today.

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Speaker 1: How much change could happen in four years under Trump?

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Speaker 2: A few ends, I think a lot, for a couple

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Speaker 2: of reasons. One is that I think he is so

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Speaker 2: incredibly angry, and rightfully so right we're talking about a

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Speaker 2: righteous anger here at all of the bad actors in

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Speaker 2: the bureaucracy, the so called deep state, who did so

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Speaker 2: much to undermine him and destroy him, both both personally

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Speaker 2: and professionally, as well as politically. Obviously, I think he

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Speaker 2: is so angry at those people he will do everything

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Speaker 2: to destroy the bureaucracy, which is a huge part of

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Speaker 2: not revenge, but of actually righting the ship here and

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Speaker 2: getting us back onto a path to prosperity. But I

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Speaker 2: think the president, the former president, is also a little

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Speaker 2: wiser today. I think he has learned who in Congress

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Speaker 2: he can and more importantly, who he cannot trust. He

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Speaker 2: was promised, let's not forget, by Republicans in Congress that look,

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Speaker 2: mister President, if we just passed this one really big budget,

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Speaker 2: we promised to deliver all the spending cuts you want

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Speaker 2: next the next go around. And he went along with it,

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Speaker 2: and then the next go around came and Republicans in

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Speaker 2: Congress refused to up hold their end of the bargain,

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Speaker 2: and then the next year Nancy Pelosi was in charge

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Speaker 2: in the House, so at that point it didn't even matter.

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Speaker 2: But I think the president, both in terms of the

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Speaker 2: House and also the Senate, he has a better feel

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Speaker 2: for again who he can and who he can't trust,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's going to be invaluable in terms

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Speaker 2: of getting that spending down.

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Speaker 1: Fingers crossed from your lips to God's ears. So, EJ,

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Speaker 1: there is there anything else you'd like to leave us

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Speaker 1: with before we go?

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I think one of the things that just echoing

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Speaker 2: something we said earlier, Lisa, this idea that to the

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Speaker 2: American people, the message is, look, you are not crazy.

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Speaker 2: Don't believe all of these headlines that keep telling you. Look,

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Speaker 2: things aren't that bad. It's fine. I was debating someone

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Speaker 2: earlier today actually, who was saying that, oh yo, these

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Speaker 2: late latest inflation rates, they are way down from where

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Speaker 2: they were in twenty twenty two, So we should be grateful, grateful?

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Speaker 2: Are you kidding me? Prices right now are rising at

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Speaker 2: such a pace that prices will double in fifteen and

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Speaker 2: a half years. I should be grateful for that. A

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Speaker 2: baby born today, by the even before they're old enough

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Speaker 2: to vote, prices will have doubled in their lifetime. That's

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Speaker 2: appalling and anyone who tries telling you that's acceptable is

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Speaker 2: a liar. And any bureaucrat who thinks that's okay needs

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Speaker 2: to resign immediately.

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Speaker 1: EJ with a Heritage Foundation, appreciate you taking the time

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Speaker 1: Before we go. Where can people follow your work?

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Speaker 2: The best place to find me is going to be

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Speaker 2: on x or Twitter whatever we call it these days,

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Speaker 2: and the handle there is at real EJ and.

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Speaker 1: Tony awesome, Ejy, appreciate you taking the time. Always good

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Speaker 1: to have you on Lisa.

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Speaker 2: It's my pleasure. Thank you again for having.

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Speaker 1: Me there was EJ and Tony with a Heritage Foundation

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Speaker 1: him from making the time every Monday and Thursday, but

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Speaker 1: you can listen throughout the week. I want to thank

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Speaker 1: John Cassio, my producer, for putting the show together. Until

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Speaker 1: next time,