Speaker 1: Everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris
Speaker 1: and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady.
Speaker 1: It is time to break down some of our favorite
Speaker 1: and our least favorite bets for the week fifteen. Goodness
Speaker 1: gracious NFL slate With me to talk about it all
Speaker 1: is Andrew Kayley, a senior publishing editor over It Covers.
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore Kaylee.
Speaker 1: That's c A L. E. Y, Andrew. What's going on?
Speaker 2: Not much? Just can't believe that the season we're already
Speaker 2: in week fifteen, semi finals for fantasy playoffs already. It's
Speaker 2: just it's like we say it every week and every
Speaker 2: year it's like, oh okay this week, but now it's
Speaker 2: almost over.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm a huge baseball fan, right, like I
Speaker 1: cover both sports. I'm huge, and legitimately it's like halfway
Speaker 1: through the baseball season, I'm like, how is it it's
Speaker 1: not over already? You know, it's like it goes by
Speaker 1: at a snail's place. Football you legitimately blink your eye
Speaker 1: and it's completely over, which is crazy, you know, We'll
Speaker 1: have a lot more going on even into the playoffs,
Speaker 1: so we have plenty of more bets to talk about.
Speaker 1: But for right now, we're going to talk about Week fifteen.
Speaker 1: But before we do, we're gonna do the full Monty
Speaker 1: where we review everything that happened last week. I hit
Speaker 1: on the Ravens lank six to the Bills and the
Speaker 1: Titans length three to the Raiders, but I missed pretty
Speaker 1: hard on the forty nine Ers Saints under forty four
Speaker 1: they just about doubled that, and Darius Guy's over seventy
Speaker 1: five rushing yards. But I'm not going to take blame
Speaker 1: for him getting injured. Yeah, that's not my fault. I'm
Speaker 1: not taking it. Our guest Ian McMillan, he hit on
Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers getting two and a half from
Speaker 1: the Saints and the Dolphins getting five from the Jets,
Speaker 1: but he missed on the Patriots getting three from the
Speaker 1: Chiefs and narrowly on Nick Chubb over one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty five rushing yards. So a bit of a mixed
Speaker 1: bag last week overall, but not the worst. So are
Speaker 1: you ready to get going? It's not bad. Are you
Speaker 1: ready to get going? I'm ready all right, So what
Speaker 1: you got for your first pick in pick sicks? And again,
Speaker 1: before we get into it, let me just make it clear.
Speaker 1: Any odds that Andrew and I reference, they're going to
Speaker 1: be the bettingpros dot Com consensus odds. Those are the
Speaker 1: aggregate of the odds that you're gonna find available in
Speaker 1: the marketplace. All right, sorry to cut you off. Let's
Speaker 1: get started with pick six. What do you have here?
Speaker 1: First pick?
Speaker 2: So the first pick, we are going with the Seattle
Speaker 2: Seahawks minus six, laying six points on the road in Carolina.
Speaker 2: It doesn't seem like a great number on the road.
Speaker 2: But the Panthers fired Ron Riviera and then they come
Speaker 2: out and look like they have absolutely no fight in them,
Speaker 2: Like that move seemed completely wrong, Like let them finish
Speaker 2: out the season they at least play for this guy.
Speaker 2: And then they get beat down forty to twenty by
Speaker 2: a Falcons team that had, well, I guess the Falcons
Speaker 2: to be fair, have now beaten them twice. They account
Speaker 2: for half of their wins against the Panthers. But now
Speaker 2: they go up against the Seahawks team that is gonna
Speaker 2: really want to bounce back after what I thought was
Speaker 2: kind of a weird game against the Rams, like they
Speaker 2: could move the ball, but they just couldn't score. And
Speaker 2: I don't know, they just ran some weird sets on offense,
Speaker 2: and uh, now they're gonna try to bounce back and
Speaker 2: keep pace with the Niners of course in the NFC West,
Speaker 2: And this just doesn't line up well for the Panthers
Speaker 2: at all this game, this matchup, Carolina is barn on
Speaker 2: the worst rushing defense in the NFL, and of course
Speaker 2: the Seahawks are one of the best rushing teams in
Speaker 2: the NFL. Just some fun Carolina rushing defense stats. First,
Speaker 2: they ranked twenty ninth and rushing yards allowed per game.
Speaker 2: They also rank last in yards per attempt at five
Speaker 2: point three per carry, and they also rank dead last
Speaker 2: in Football Outsiders DVA rating against the rush. They've also
Speaker 2: given up twenty one rushing touchdowns this season. That's the
Speaker 2: most in the NFL and seven more than the next
Speaker 2: closest team. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank fifth and rushing TV
Speaker 2: away seventh the yards per attempt. I know the ox
Speaker 2: for Shrod Penny for the year, but there's still some
Speaker 2: backfield death with I think Precise is back there, still
Speaker 2: backing up Carson. I really like Carson this week. I
Speaker 2: think he has a really big game. And of course
Speaker 2: they still have that Russell Wilson guy who's pretty good
Speaker 2: and well the past Panthers pass defense excuse me, the
Speaker 2: Panthers pass defense. I say that five times fast. Is
Speaker 2: they haven't been as effective the last over the last
Speaker 2: month or so, and for a team that just seems
Speaker 2: to have it sould gutted. I'm taking I'm laying the
Speaker 2: points with the Seahawks here. They're they're they're motivated, they
Speaker 2: have to win. They're frankly the much better team. Lay
Speaker 2: the points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in completely agreement with you on this one.
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised that, you know, our consensus isn't
Speaker 1: more overwhelming. I mean, it's sixty seven percent taking sand
Speaker 1: which is a pretty big number, and I'm surprised it's
Speaker 1: not like eighty five percent. I mean, when you look
Speaker 1: at the breakdown of both the number of bets in
Speaker 1: the market and the money coming in, it is strongly
Speaker 1: skewed towards Seattle, and I completely agree with you. I
Speaker 1: feel like it's a little difficult at this point for
Speaker 1: bookmakers because you know, everybody's got their models, and that's
Speaker 1: why you see some of these lines and you're like, well,
Speaker 1: I feel like, generally speaking, the line should be much
Speaker 1: greater than it necessarily is. And that's a lot because
Speaker 1: you know, these the bookmakers, they don't react as heavily
Speaker 1: to one or two games as maybe the public does.
Speaker 1: But I mean, at this point, it is obvious from
Speaker 1: ten thousand feet away that the Panthers are just mailing
Speaker 1: it in at this point, right, they just can't do anything,
Speaker 1: get anything right. The defense you mentioned it, they're terrible
Speaker 1: against the run, and they've just completely given up since then.
Speaker 1: They look like they just have no interest in tackling anybody.
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen has completely come back down to earth. I'm
Speaker 1: not even sure he's going to survive this entire game
Speaker 1: as a starting quarterback at this point. And like you
Speaker 1: mentioned the Seahawks, I mean, not only are they coming
Speaker 1: off a loss, but they're pretty desperate for a win.
Speaker 1: I mean it might be the difference between the number
Speaker 1: two seed and the number five seeds, so it's pretty big.
Speaker 1: So for me, I think this is a smash game
Speaker 1: for everybody. I think Chris Carson's going to go nuts.
Speaker 1: I think Russell Wilson's going to go nuts. I think
Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett, who's finally recovered from his illnesses, is going
Speaker 1: to go nuts. And again, you know, to the extent
Speaker 1: you know, the Seattle pass defense has been not Seattle.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. The Carolina pass defense the whole season has
Speaker 1: been decent. But I mean, I really think James Bradbury
Speaker 1: is probably gonna match up on.
Speaker 2: Metcalf at this point, right, I'd say so? Yeah, And
Speaker 2: so that that whole unit has really come together, like
Speaker 2: especially with now that Lockett is is healthy. I like
Speaker 2: the way that Metcalf is playing. Even Josh Gordon is
Speaker 2: like Carvin's his a little niche there, and it's it's
Speaker 2: fun to see them play together.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, So I agree with you. I think this
Speaker 1: is a smash butt for Seattle. I have, I mean
Speaker 1: under a touchdown. I love it. I'm all over it
Speaker 1: as well. So I'm with you for your first pick.
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna be with me for my first
Speaker 1: pick as well. And that's gonna be the Jaguars and
Speaker 1: the Raiders going over forty five points. Since the Jaguars
Speaker 1: by they have allowed thirty three, forty two, twenty eight
Speaker 1: and forty five points. This is a defense that has
Speaker 1: completely mailed it in.
Speaker 2: I mean, you want to it makes it.
Speaker 1: It makes Carolina look like they're playing their butts off
Speaker 1: and desperately trying to get to the playoffs. Their rushed
Speaker 1: defense is thirty first in the league in yards per
Speaker 1: carried running backs at five point three, thirtieth in yards
Speaker 1: per game at one hundred and forty one point one,
Speaker 1: but that is nothing compared to their last three games,
Speaker 1: in which they have allowed one hundred and sixty two
Speaker 1: point seven rushing yards per game income the Raiders. Despite
Speaker 1: their various offensive deficiencies, they can still run the ball
Speaker 1: behind that offensive line. It sounds like Josh Jacobs is
Speaker 1: gonna play this weekend.
Speaker 2: I mean, Joe's weird. Yeah, it was like, oh, he
Speaker 2: might be done for the year, and now they're saying like,
Speaker 2: oh no, just day to day.
Speaker 1: I mean in the end, First of all, there were
Speaker 1: a couple I mean, it sounds like John Gruden doesn't
Speaker 1: want to play him necessarily, but their reports say they
Speaker 1: looked great. And again, remember this is their last game
Speaker 1: in Oakland, right, This is they want to they want
Speaker 1: to have a big performance here, so he's probably gonna
Speaker 1: play but even if he doesn't, DeAndre Washington is kind
Speaker 1: of an underrated running back in the league. I think
Speaker 1: he showed last week he can carry the load. They're
Speaker 1: passing offense not great, but car played well against the Titans.
Speaker 1: They still have Darren Waller. They're capable of moving the ball.
Speaker 1: I don't think Miles Jack is really going to be
Speaker 1: able to shut Waller down. And all though you know
Speaker 1: the Jaguars run defense is abysmal, their pass defense lately
Speaker 1: is almost just as bad. You saw Philip Rivers in
Speaker 1: the midst of a horrific season totally light them up.
Speaker 1: They've allowed a ninety six point three passer raigning to
Speaker 1: opposing quarterbacks on the season. That is tenth worst in
Speaker 1: the league. It's been getting worse lately. This is really
Speaker 1: just an understanding that the Jaguars have totally mailed it in. Now, Okay, fine,
Speaker 1: that's defensively, but the Raiders they're pretty equally inept defensively
Speaker 1: at the moment. Thirty four forty forty two points. Those
Speaker 1: are the points allowed over the last three games. One
Speaker 1: of those is to my beloved Jets. The Raiders defense
Speaker 1: has been abysmal against the past all season, right on
Speaker 1: the surface, they've been decent against the run, but I've
Speaker 1: never really bought that. I think their run defense has
Speaker 1: largely been a little overrated, hidden a bit by the
Speaker 1: fact that they are so bad against the pass. And look,
Speaker 1: there's no shame in getting beat up by Derrick Henry,
Speaker 1: but you saw what happened last week eighteen carries for
Speaker 1: one hundred and three yards, and again, the pass defense
Speaker 1: just terrible. They allowed two hundred and sixty eight passing
Speaker 1: yards per game, twenty eighth in the league, one hundred
Speaker 1: and five point nine QB rating against thirty first in
Speaker 1: the league, and the Jags passing offense hasn't been great
Speaker 1: even with Gardner Minshew. They're probably going to be down
Speaker 1: Djhark in this game, but I think they can do
Speaker 1: enough against this defense. Again, my only worry here legitimately
Speaker 1: is that because it's the last game in Oakland, you
Speaker 1: see that crowd is going to be crazy. I'm sure
Speaker 1: the Raiders are going to put up points. You could
Speaker 1: see maybe their defense playing, you know, getting up for
Speaker 1: this game and maybe shutting down the Jaguars. But overall,
Speaker 1: I think in the end there's going to be a
Speaker 1: lot of points scoring this game, So I'll take the
Speaker 1: over forty five and not sweat too much about him.
Speaker 2: I can't, I can't disagree too much. Of these teams
Speaker 2: rank twenty ninth and thirty first in defensive DVOA this year,
Speaker 2: so yeah, I like. Also, I also like, I think
Speaker 2: Leonard Fournette will get a little more on track in
Speaker 2: this game. He's been pretty pretty outstanding all year, which
Speaker 2: is a relief to his fantasy owners.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but the Raiders are going to have their hands full.
Speaker 2: He seems to still be trying. I'll give him. I'll
Speaker 2: give him the credits.
Speaker 1: Hey, and Minshew's trying. I mean he's out there, He's
Speaker 1: running around like crazy.
Speaker 2: But I love me some inshumanias.
Speaker 1: Everybody loves it all. Let's move on to your second pick.
Speaker 1: What do you have?
Speaker 2: So we're jumping back into the same Seahawks and Panthers
Speaker 2: game because while the Seahawks are doing have an opportunity
Speaker 2: to put a lot of points on offense, the defense
Speaker 2: also has some some issues that are I guess being
Speaker 2: overlooked at this point. The Panthers have allowed thirty three
Speaker 2: points per game over their last four games, so yeah,
Speaker 2: they've they've quite slipped quite a bunch, and the Seahawks
Speaker 2: there's no reason to think they can't have a similar output.
Speaker 2: Like we said before, or you said before, Wilson's gonna
Speaker 2: have a great game. I think that as well. I
Speaker 2: like we I also mentioned how I love how the
Speaker 2: wide receiver Cord looks he has. Wilson has a standing
Speaker 2: numbers this year thirty four hundred yards, sixty seven percent completions,
Speaker 2: twenty six touchdowns, just five picks. And we also mentioned
Speaker 2: that the Panthers pass defense is just not up to
Speaker 2: snuff anymore. But the question here is whether or not
Speaker 2: Carolina can score enough points to get this one over,
Speaker 2: and I think they can. Seattle doesn't grade out the
Speaker 2: best on defense, ranking twenty second against the rush in DVOA,
Speaker 2: and now they have to deal with Christian McCaffrey this week.
Speaker 2: I know he has definitely cooled off and he's definitely
Speaker 2: not any part of the MVP conversation anymore, but we
Speaker 2: all know what he's capable of, and he can break
Speaker 2: a big one at any time. The Seahawks are also
Speaker 2: really vulnerable over the middle of the field, particularly against
Speaker 2: tight ends, and now I hear that Greg Olsen might
Speaker 2: be back. I'm not sure why, but I think Ian
Speaker 2: Thomas can also be effective in this spot. And obviously
Speaker 2: Kyle Allen is not going to vow you in any
Speaker 2: shape or form, but he has some good weapons. That
Speaker 2: is a disposal. And yeah, I think the Seahawks are
Speaker 2: gonna have some issues come playoff time, but in and
Speaker 2: I think the Panthers can actually show that by scoring
Speaker 2: some points here. And I like the over forty eight.
Speaker 1: Disagree. I think that in the end, like I said,
Speaker 1: I expect this to be kind of a smash game
Speaker 1: for the Seahawks, especially offensively. The thing is like, you know,
Speaker 1: you think about the Seahawks and historically you're like, ooh,
Speaker 1: you know, they've got this really great defense, you know,
Speaker 1: and you reliant rust Wilson, but it's not really the
Speaker 1: case anymore. I mean, their defense is fine, but it's
Speaker 1: not elite at this point anymore. So, I you know,
Speaker 1: as much as I don't have faith in Kyle Allen,
Speaker 1: I do think that they're gonna be able to put
Speaker 1: a points in this game. And again, I expect a
Speaker 1: lot of points from the Seahawks at this point. So
Speaker 1: I like both of those picks. So far, so so far,
Speaker 1: we're doing good. We're on the same page. I don't.
Speaker 1: I hope you're good.
Speaker 2: Sorry. I think if they get anywhere around seventeen to
Speaker 2: twenty points, I think, I think this one goes over
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 1: For my second pick, I'm going to be taking the
Speaker 1: Eagles and the Redskins under. It's now at thirty nine, okay,
Speaker 1: And this happens almost every time I take my pick.
Speaker 1: I get it in and then when I check right
Speaker 1: before we record, it has moved. And at least that
Speaker 1: gives me some confidence that my inkling was correct. Thirty
Speaker 1: nine is a small I originally had it at forty
Speaker 1: and a half. It was forty when I decided to
Speaker 1: take it here, and now it's thirty nine. I don't care.
Speaker 1: I'm still taking it back in college, all right, Uh, Andrew,
Speaker 1: my buddies and I were sitting around late at night
Speaker 1: and some really dumb infomercial came on. I do not
Speaker 1: remember the product. It was something that no rational human
Speaker 1: would ever buy. And one of the guys just randomly
Speaker 1: blurted out in kind of a weird voice, whatever they're asking,
Speaker 1: I'll double it. And that line has always like popped
Speaker 1: into my head whenever I see something that I am
Speaker 1: actually interested in. So I was talking about this total
Speaker 1: with one of the guys and he said, oh, I
Speaker 1: wonder what the big is on it, And all I
Speaker 1: could think was, whatever they're asking, I'll double it. I
Speaker 1: don't care what this is. At this point. I'm all
Speaker 1: in on this game. I'm having a hard time seeing
Speaker 1: how this total gets past like thirty six, maybe at max.
Speaker 1: I mean, kudos to the Eagles for beating the Giants
Speaker 1: on Monday Night, but are you kidding me? Right now?
Speaker 1: With this offense? Alshon Jeffrey is done for the year.
Speaker 1: Lane Johnson is not going to play. You're pinning your
Speaker 1: hopes on Nelson Agalore, which is really a scary proposition,
Speaker 1: and he's probably gonna be too, so literally, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders and like fifty tight ends
Speaker 1: that they're just going to be throwing out there. It's
Speaker 1: really difficult to see them moving the ball, even if
Speaker 1: Jordan Howard comes back, which sounds like he actually might
Speaker 1: have a chance. The Redskins, though they have not mailed
Speaker 1: it in. I mean, they continue to play hard. They
Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. They are
Speaker 1: top five in the league at getting pressure. Especially without
Speaker 1: Lane Johnson protecting Wentz, it's gonna make it a little
Speaker 1: tough for him. And overall, the defense is not the worst.
Speaker 1: They're decent upfront, and it's really about just how the
Speaker 1: Eagles are so decimated offensively and now they are coming
Speaker 1: off this short week. And then on the other side
Speaker 1: of the ball, you have the Redskins, a team led by
Speaker 1: Dwayne Haskins and a coach who is legitimately trying to
Speaker 1: run out the season. They run the ball nearly as
Speaker 1: much as any team other than the Raven since Bill
Speaker 1: Callahan took over, the fifth most in the league in
Speaker 1: that span. Dwayne Haskins, as anybody who has watched a
Speaker 1: football game understands, is not performing particularly well for obvious
Speaker 1: reasons this year. He also takes a ton of sacks.
Speaker 1: The Redskins take a ton of time in between plays.
Speaker 1: They're legitimately trying to run out the season. And the Eagles,
Speaker 1: they have a really solid run defense. That's the one
Speaker 1: thing that you can kind of count on with them.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna see many explosive plays, especially with Darius
Speaker 1: Geis out. You've got Adrian Peterson carrying the ball. That's
Speaker 1: not gonna make these you know, huge chunk plays or
Speaker 1: anything like Geist was at least cable to get. Really,
Speaker 1: I just see that both teams are gonna run the
Speaker 1: ball a lot. It's difficult to see either one of
Speaker 1: them having much success. Running leads to clock movement, which
Speaker 1: tem swards the under So even at thirty nine a
Speaker 1: low number, I'm okay with it, I'm gonna take it.
Speaker 2: Uh, yeah, I have. I have no real disagreement here.
Speaker 2: You stole a bunch of my notes leading into my
Speaker 2: next pick. Here, I'm I'm taking the Eagles minus four
Speaker 2: and a half for my final pick. But my first
Speaker 2: line was here, Bill Callahan literally looks like he's trying
Speaker 2: to run out the clock on the season. Yeah one,
Speaker 2: Like you said, Dwayne Haskins not look good. Guy's done
Speaker 2: for the year, which is kind of a bummer because
Speaker 2: I really was enjoyed watching him play. But they also
Speaker 2: rank thirty first in Offensive DVD away because of that
Speaker 2: play from Haskins and the way Adrian Peterson runs the
Speaker 2: ball plots. He's definitely more of a plotter these days.
Speaker 2: And they also here are the teams with fewer yards
Speaker 2: per play than Washington this year, Chicago, Miami and your
Speaker 2: New York Jets. You mentioned the Eagles are not great
Speaker 2: ton of injuries all that, But I think Doug Peterson
Speaker 2: is finally recognizing the talent he has. And Miles Sanders,
Speaker 2: I think he's set up for a big game here
Speaker 2: against a Washington defense that doesn't greed well against the run.
Speaker 2: They do get pressure. But Wentz, I don't know. Wentz
Speaker 2: is an enigma to me, Like sometimes he makes these
Speaker 2: great throws that he shouldn't be making, and then other
Speaker 2: times he misses these really easy throws. It's really frustrating,
Speaker 2: so it's hard to have faith in him. But I
Speaker 2: think they lean on Sanders in this game. I think
Speaker 2: Ertz will probably have a good game as well. Maybe
Speaker 2: a guy like Dallas Goddard has like eight receptions for
Speaker 2: like fifty yards and sets up a touchdown or something.
Speaker 2: I don't know, but I think this number at this
Speaker 2: number was higher before. As we talked of off area,
Speaker 2: it was close. It was six before, and now it's
Speaker 2: coming down to four and a half. Anything under six
Speaker 2: I'm comfortable taking, just because I don't I don't see
Speaker 2: Washington scoring for the most part, and which leads into
Speaker 2: your underplay, so we'll we'll take We'll take the Eagles
Speaker 2: as well at minus four and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't have a great feel for it. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be honest. I mean, I think if I was
Speaker 1: forced to take aside probably at four and a half,
Speaker 1: there's value with with the Eagles at that point. I
Speaker 1: did lock in, I'll be honest. I mean, you go
Speaker 1: to betting pros dot com. You can see how I
Speaker 1: or any of you know, the top betting experts in
Speaker 1: the country really are betting any particular game. And I
Speaker 1: locked it in when I saw the Redskins getting six.
Speaker 1: As you talked about it, sounds like you really wouldn't
Speaker 1: necessarily be interested in the Eagles at that number. And again,
Speaker 1: part of it is just it's really difficult to see
Speaker 1: the Eagles putting up a ton of points here, right, No, right,
Speaker 1: But at four and a half it's a little closer.
Speaker 1: It's not a game that I would personally bet because
Speaker 1: it's something that makes me a little bit nervous just
Speaker 1: backing the Eagles in any capacity at this point.
Speaker 2: They're motivated now though they're so close to that division title.
Speaker 1: I know, man, but they're gonna be able to get
Speaker 1: that division title no matter what. They could just beat
Speaker 1: the Cowboys at the end, so it's all good. I
Speaker 1: love how everybody who's terrible just controls her own destiny
Speaker 1: because it doesn't.
Speaker 2: Matter now what it's dumpster fires is this?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, it's funny. I mean, look, I like once,
Speaker 1: I think he's a good quarterback. I understand the criticism
Speaker 1: of them, but right now he's just got absolutely nothing
Speaker 1: going on that he can no no skill players that
Speaker 1: he can really get the ball to. So he's hanging
Speaker 1: in there. It's an interesting game. I don't really love
Speaker 1: it at this point. If you know at six I
Speaker 1: liked the Redskins at four and a half, a bit
Speaker 1: of a stay away from me.
Speaker 2: They'll lead into a little later where I like, I
Speaker 2: don't like a lot on this week's board.
Speaker 1: So oh, this is a tough board for sure, And
Speaker 1: a lot of the games I like, I feel like
Speaker 1: are the big, big numbers, and that always makes me
Speaker 1: a little queasy, especially when I'm looking at mostly favorites.
Speaker 1: This one is a smaller number, but it is a favorite,
Speaker 1: And I like the Browns laying three to the Cardinals
Speaker 1: in Arizona, So when I first looked at this game,
Speaker 1: I did not want much of it. I've kind of
Speaker 1: given up on relying on the Browns this year. They're
Speaker 1: in this group of teams that I just don't know
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna get when they come out to play.
Speaker 1: But I feel pretty comfortable with what I'll get from
Speaker 1: the Cardinals at this point, and that is nothing great.
Speaker 1: The Browns are still alive for a playoff spot. They're
Speaker 1: going to be playing hard, and the Cardinals have three
Speaker 1: wins this year. They've beaten the Bengals by three, they
Speaker 1: beat a decimated Falcons team that was pretty much quitting
Speaker 1: by one, and a really bad Giants team by six. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they occasionally hang around. As a general matter, though, they're
Speaker 1: just not that good, particularly defensively. They're okay against the run, fine,
Speaker 1: but Cleveland's two edit attack of Nick Chubb and Cream
Speaker 1: Hunt can move the ball against anyone, and the weakness
Speaker 1: of the Browns of offense is its passing game. Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield has not been good all season. He was knockod
Speaker 1: against the Bengals last week, and he's got more interceptions
Speaker 1: and touchdowns. It has not been a good year for Baker,
Speaker 1: but the Cardinals pass defense is a joke. They're fourth
Speaker 1: worst in passing DVA. They're worst in the in the
Speaker 1: league in YOURDS per game, in completion percentage, and QB
Speaker 1: rating against. Their cornerbacks have been two of the worst
Speaker 1: in football all season long, and that is shocking since
Speaker 1: one of them is Patrick Peterson, but he has been
Speaker 1: graded terribly by Pro Football Focus. They cannot cover tight ends,
Speaker 1: and David Joku is back to practicing in full he
Speaker 1: should be back ready to go in full capacity this week.
Speaker 1: I just think that the Browns are gonna be able
Speaker 1: to score pretty easily here, and I think the Cardinals
Speaker 1: are gonna put up some points too. But the Browns
Speaker 1: Achilles heel is really their run defense, right. They allow
Speaker 1: four point eight yards per carry, and the running game
Speaker 1: is fine for Arizona, but they're not a team that
Speaker 1: just runs it forty times right down your throat unless
Speaker 1: Kyler Murray gets more involved. The Browns are solid against
Speaker 1: the pass despite missing both their cornerbacks for the vast
Speaker 1: majority of the season. They're both healthy now. Their top
Speaker 1: ten in passing yards allowed per game. They get pressure
Speaker 1: on the quarterback pretty consistently, even without Miles Garrett so
Speaker 1: this is much much more of a fade of Arizona,
Speaker 1: and I liked it better when it was originally under
Speaker 1: a field goal. I saw a two and a half
Speaker 1: at one point, even at a field goal, though, I'm
Speaker 1: still gonna take it. So I will take the Browns
Speaker 1: in Arizona laying three to the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: You're not gonna get an argument for me on that.
Speaker 1: One, all right, Fading Arizona. I'm gonna be mad if
Speaker 1: I get an argument from anybody at that point. All right,
Speaker 1: let's quickly review. You like the Seahawks laying six to
Speaker 1: the Panthers and the total over forty eight and a
Speaker 1: half in that game, and you like the Eagles laying
Speaker 1: four and a half to the Redskins. I'm going to
Speaker 1: take the Jaguars and the Raiders over forty five, the
Speaker 1: Eagles and the Redskins under thirty nine, and the Browns
Speaker 1: laying three to the Cardinals. Before we move on. There
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Speaker 1: a trap where we list the line we are avoiding.
Speaker 1: Start us off.
Speaker 2: Like we said, there's a lot of lines to avoid
Speaker 2: this week. It's like I'm looking on the board. I
Speaker 2: see the Titans there minus three at home, but I
Speaker 2: still can't shake the idea that Ryan Tannehill is good.
Speaker 2: I have no idea what to make of that Bills
Speaker 2: and Steelers line as well. I'm looking at the Vikings
Speaker 2: line as short faves and that's super suspicious, like definitely
Speaker 2: a trap there. I remember we talked about the Packers
Speaker 2: doing going out to San Diego. I did it, darn
Speaker 2: Los Angeles.
Speaker 1: It's been like two years, man, time, you got to
Speaker 1: get past it.
Speaker 2: But they did the same thing, and the Packers went
Speaker 2: out there and we were like, oh my goodness, that's
Speaker 2: that line. Looks suspicious And of course the Packers lost.
Speaker 2: But funny enough, the line I am not trusting the
Speaker 2: most is that Rams and Cowboys line. Like you said,
Speaker 2: it's been jumping all over the place, and I think
Speaker 2: that has to do with the fact that nobody really
Speaker 2: knows how to grade either of these teams. They the
Speaker 2: Rams look wonderful on offense one week and the next
Speaker 2: it takes Jared Goff fifty passes to throw two hundred
Speaker 2: and forty yards. And with the Cowboys, the Cowboys are
Speaker 2: just I guess they're just a mess. A team that
Speaker 2: talented at seven and the defense isn't as good as
Speaker 2: they thought it would be. H vander Esch being hurt
Speaker 2: has really has really affected them. But I wouldn't be
Speaker 2: surprised if they came out here and won this game.
Speaker 2: And now they're getting like a point and a half
Speaker 2: at home. So I'm just no, thank you staying away,
Speaker 2: Jason Garrett, see you later. Let's get Urban Meyer in
Speaker 2: here and try it all over again.
Speaker 1: I can't remember a line swinging quite this much from opening, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is crazy. It's like five and a
Speaker 1: half points at this point right now the Cowboys are
Speaker 1: getting one and a half. I mean, look, I agree
Speaker 1: with you. I'm not going anywhere near this. I really want.
Speaker 1: I mean when I look at it and I kind
Speaker 1: of break down the entire game. There is value now
Speaker 1: with the Cowboys. You're getting value at this point with
Speaker 1: them playing at home getting one and a half points.
Speaker 1: But I cannot stake my betting life. I'm Jason Garrett, right,
Speaker 1: I just can't at this point. And the Rams look
Speaker 1: really good, but again, you know it's hard to not
Speaker 1: overreact to what you just saw. And you know, the
Speaker 1: Rams have looked really good lately. The Cowboys have looked bad.
Speaker 1: But again, Cowboys at home kind of you know the
Speaker 1: values there, but I can't get involved in that. And
Speaker 1: that is coming from somebody who just took a Freddy
Speaker 1: Kitchens led team on the road at Arizona, and I'm saying, man,
Speaker 1: with Jason Garrett there, I can't get involved. So I
Speaker 1: agree with you on that one. Man. It really is
Speaker 1: something where wow, the line, the movement in the line,
Speaker 1: you know, the public is all over it. It just
Speaker 1: it scares me, So I agree with you. I'm staying
Speaker 1: away for my pick. I am going to avoid the
Speaker 1: Packers laying four and a half to the Bears. I
Speaker 1: just I cannot get a read on this game. The
Speaker 1: Bears have been playing better, but the defense is still solid.
Speaker 1: It's not great, and they just lost Rokwan Smith. And
Speaker 1: the Packers are kind of just like coasting along. They
Speaker 1: rarely look impressive, but they're generally finding ways to win.
Speaker 1: And it's basically a must a must win game kind
Speaker 1: of for both teams. The Bears need to keep their
Speaker 1: playoff hopes alive. The Packers need to not only stay
Speaker 1: ahead of the Vikings, but they're also in play for
Speaker 1: the number two seed if things break right. Divisional opponents
Speaker 1: who know each other well second meaning of the year.
Speaker 1: It's just not a game I really want to get
Speaker 1: involved in. If I was forced to choose a side,
Speaker 1: I guess it would be the Bears. But it's really
Speaker 1: in limbo. It's just not a game that I feel
Speaker 1: comfortable with.
Speaker 2: I couldn't agree more the Bear. The Bears are one
Speaker 2: of those teams that fall into that category of like,
Speaker 2: are you gonna get good Mitch or bad Mitch? And
Speaker 2: if you get good Mitch, you're gonna get some some
Speaker 2: good results. I think a lot of the like you said,
Speaker 2: the defense has been good, not like they haven't been
Speaker 2: like as outstanding as we want, but I think a
Speaker 2: lot to do with uh, the fact that those for
Speaker 2: most of the season, the Bears just haven't been able
Speaker 2: to sustain drives and they're they're getting gassed and they're
Speaker 2: getting tired and teams kind of wear them out throughout
Speaker 2: the game. But yeah, I uh like the Packers on
Speaker 2: the other hand, like I don't I don't know what
Speaker 2: to make of mattliflur in that offense right now. They
Speaker 2: like you said, they find ways to win, but it's
Speaker 2: been ugly. But I guess maybe it comes playoff time
Speaker 2: and then their experienced when and ugly, which is what
Speaker 2: you need in the playoffs. So who knows. That's why
Speaker 2: I'm staying away.
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, there's like five or six games that
Speaker 1: can usually fall into this category. Right, there's a bunch
Speaker 1: of games that neither one of us won want to touch.
Speaker 1: But for now, I will avoid the Packers giving four
Speaker 1: and a half to the Bears, and you will avoid
Speaker 1: the Rams laying one and a half now to the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: So before we get onto our final segment, I want
Speaker 1: to remind everyone about our giveaway. It is a signed
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas Saints helmet. You can go to Betting Pros
Speaker 1: dot com slash contest for more details, but to enter,
Speaker 1: just leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts
Speaker 1: or Stitcher, send the screenshot of that review to contest
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com, And if you have already entered
Speaker 1: a previous contest, you are automatically injured for this one.
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Speaker 1: finish up with our top prop where we give our
Speaker 1: top player prop bet of the week. What do you have?
Speaker 2: My best prop of the week, which you can also
Speaker 2: find over at Covers Propshop podcast, which we do every week,
Speaker 2: is Jarvis Landry to go along with your Cleveland Browns,
Speaker 2: but to go over his receiving yards total of seventy
Speaker 2: six and a half yards. Like you broke down all
Speaker 2: the reasons why we like the Browns to cover that spread,
Speaker 2: and that kind of goes into why I like Landry
Speaker 2: in this game as well. I looked at Baker's yardage
Speaker 2: total as well, but he's just like there's some some
Speaker 2: of his games are so inconsistent you don't know what
Speaker 2: you're gonna get with him. Juice has been consistent, and
Speaker 2: he's back to me and that target monster we're used to,
Speaker 2: averaging over ten targets and nearly eighty yards per game
Speaker 2: over his last seven games. Like you said, this, Cardinal's
Speaker 2: past events really and it's like we said, shocking because
Speaker 2: that includes Patrick Peterson, but either way, I think Peterson's
Speaker 2: probably gonna be on Odell most of the time anyway.
Speaker 2: And another area that the Cardinals are really terrible that
Speaker 2: is defending tight ends. They're like really like worst in
Speaker 2: the league at defending tight ends, and not that they're
Speaker 2: gonna you mentioned inn Djoko, but they can also use
Speaker 2: Landry all over the field, and he does his best
Speaker 2: work in the middle of the field, which is a
Speaker 2: spot where the Cardinals are lacking. So I like them
Speaker 2: to take advantage in that spot and go over his
Speaker 2: receiving yards of seventy six and a half.
Speaker 1: Yep, love it. Mayfield is somebody who you know, I
Speaker 1: do a lot of fantasy, as we kind of alluded to,
Speaker 1: and you know Mayfield just you know, I'll probably have
Speaker 1: him ranked relatively decently, But he's not somebody who I
Speaker 1: love because you just can't trust him. But you can
Speaker 1: pretty much trust Landry. He's really the one part of
Speaker 1: the passing game that you can druss. So I like it.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have a big game, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: and I do think the Landry is gonna get a
Speaker 1: big piece of it. I am going sort of to
Speaker 1: dovetail into one of your other picks, and I'm going
Speaker 1: to go with Chris Carson over one hundred and twenty
Speaker 1: five rushing yards at plus plus two ten. All right,
Speaker 1: so you know we're getting we're getting some juice on that.
Speaker 1: The Panthers, as you mentioned, I mean, you basically gave
Speaker 1: it all anyway, so I don't really have to go
Speaker 1: into it too much. But as you mentioned, the Panthers
Speaker 1: are last in the league in rushing defensive DVOA. They've
Speaker 1: completely mailed it in. The Panthers have a lot. They
Speaker 1: have a lot one hundred and seventy five rushing yards
Speaker 1: per game over their last three games. You mentioned Rashot
Speaker 1: Penny is out for this game, that they don't have
Speaker 1: anybody else really to run. They desperately need to win.
Speaker 1: Brian shot and hyper wants to run the ball. They're
Speaker 1: gonna do so. Again here it's you know, it's a
Speaker 1: big number, one hundred and twenty five yards, but you
Speaker 1: know you're getting two to one in your money, more
Speaker 1: than two to one in your money. So again, this
Speaker 1: is a game where I think everybody on the Seattle
Speaker 1: offense goes crazy. But specifically Chris Carson, especially with Penny
Speaker 1: out with Penny in, they're basically splitting Carrieres WITHO him, CJ.
Speaker 1: Pross is not going to really siphon off all that much.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be a lot of Carson. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: a lot of yards. I'll take over one twenty five
Speaker 1: at plus two ten.
Speaker 2: Love it.
Speaker 1: I knew you would given your plays bad but yeah,
Speaker 1: he's He's a big one, and if you are playing fantasy,
Speaker 1: certainly Carson should be considered probably a top five back
Speaker 1: this week this week. All right, that's gonna do it
Speaker 1: for today's show. Thanks again for joining me, Andrew. Remind
Speaker 1: everybody where they can find more of you and your work.
Speaker 2: You can find me at covers dot com and on
Speaker 2: Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee, we're getting ready for bowl
Speaker 2: season now too. That's how crazy the the how crazy
Speaker 2: fast the football season goes. We're already coming up to
Speaker 2: bowl season, so we'll have breakdowns of every single bowl
Speaker 2: game this season, so look forward to that.
Speaker 1: Awesome. Well, thanks again for coming on the show. This
Speaker 1: might be your fourth time on the show or something
Speaker 1: like that.
Speaker 2: I think it's something like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, we'll call it, we'll call it. I
Speaker 1: always enjoy having you on. You're really easy to talk to.
Speaker 1: You don't insult my jets too much. It's it's a
Speaker 1: rarity for a guess, so really appreciate it. Hopefully we
Speaker 1: can do it again soon.
Speaker 2: Can't wait?
Speaker 1: All right? I want to remind everybody about bet MGM,
Speaker 1: where you can win one hundred dollars in free bets
Speaker 1: on your one dollar money line bet on the Cowboys
Speaker 1: to beat the Rams so long as Dak Prescott completes
Speaker 1: even a single pass. If you sign up for an
Speaker 1: account using our promo code Harris, and don't forget to
Speaker 1: leave us a review on Apple, podcast or Stitcher, send
Speaker 1: a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com to be entered into our Michael Thomas signed helmet giveaway.
Speaker 1: Good luckily your wagers this week, and everybody, we'll be
Speaker 1: back breaking down the early lines for week sixteen on
Speaker 1: Monday