WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 15 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 35) 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:14.480 Everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:17.680 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:19.960 and you can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Ady. 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:22.239 It is time to break down some of our favorite 0:00:22.239 --> 0:00:25.720 and our least favorite bets for the week fifteen. Goodness 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:28.360 gracious NFL slate With me to talk about it all 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:32.200 is Andrew Kayley, a senior publishing editor over It Covers. 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:36.519 You can find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore Kaylee. 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:39.000 That's c A L. E. Y, Andrew. What's going on? 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:41.880 Not much? Just can't believe that the season we're already 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:44.920 in week fifteen, semi finals for fantasy playoffs already. It's 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:47.279 just it's like we say it every week and every 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:50.680 year it's like, oh okay this week, but now it's 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:51.240 almost over. 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:54.320 I mean, I'm a huge baseball fan, right, like I 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:58.200 cover both sports. I'm huge, and legitimately it's like halfway 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:00.160 through the baseball season, I'm like, how is it it's 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:02.560 not over already? You know, it's like it goes by 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.720 at a snail's place. Football you legitimately blink your eye 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:08.560 and it's completely over, which is crazy, you know, We'll 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:10.399 have a lot more going on even into the playoffs, 0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:12.479 so we have plenty of more bets to talk about. 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:15.279 But for right now, we're going to talk about Week fifteen. 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:17.160 But before we do, we're gonna do the full Monty 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.360 where we review everything that happened last week. I hit 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.319 on the Ravens lank six to the Bills and the 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.720 Titans length three to the Raiders, but I missed pretty 0:01:25.800 --> 0:01:28.640 hard on the forty nine Ers Saints under forty four 0:01:28.680 --> 0:01:32.240 they just about doubled that, and Darius Guy's over seventy 0:01:32.240 --> 0:01:34.679 five rushing yards. But I'm not going to take blame 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.119 for him getting injured. Yeah, that's not my fault. I'm 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.600 not taking it. Our guest Ian McMillan, he hit on 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:41.280 the forty nine Ers getting two and a half from 0:01:41.280 --> 0:01:43.720 the Saints and the Dolphins getting five from the Jets, 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:46.080 but he missed on the Patriots getting three from the 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:49.120 Chiefs and narrowly on Nick Chubb over one hundred and 0:01:49.120 --> 0:01:50.640 twenty five rushing yards. So a bit of a mixed 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:54.480 bag last week overall, but not the worst. So are 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.720 you ready to get going? It's not bad. Are you 0:01:56.760 --> 0:01:59.200 ready to get going? I'm ready all right, So what 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:02.000 you got for your first pick in pick sicks? And again, 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:03.680 before we get into it, let me just make it clear. 0:02:04.000 --> 0:02:06.240 Any odds that Andrew and I reference, they're going to 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:09.160 be the bettingpros dot Com consensus odds. Those are the 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:11.560 aggregate of the odds that you're gonna find available in 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:13.440 the marketplace. All right, sorry to cut you off. Let's 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:14.960 get started with pick six. What do you have here? 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:15.440 First pick? 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:18.920 So the first pick, we are going with the Seattle 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:26.160 Seahawks minus six, laying six points on the road in Carolina. 0:02:26.400 --> 0:02:29.240 It doesn't seem like a great number on the road. 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.440 But the Panthers fired Ron Riviera and then they come 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:36.040 out and look like they have absolutely no fight in them, 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:38.960 Like that move seemed completely wrong, Like let them finish 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:40.960 out the season they at least play for this guy. 0:02:41.000 --> 0:02:43.560 And then they get beat down forty to twenty by 0:02:43.720 --> 0:02:45.920 a Falcons team that had, well, I guess the Falcons 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.240 to be fair, have now beaten them twice. They account 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:53.480 for half of their wins against the Panthers. But now 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:56.000 they go up against the Seahawks team that is gonna 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.600 really want to bounce back after what I thought was 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:02.240 kind of a weird game against the Rams, like they 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.240 could move the ball, but they just couldn't score. And 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.079 I don't know, they just ran some weird sets on offense, 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:12.240 and uh, now they're gonna try to bounce back and 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:14.519 keep pace with the Niners of course in the NFC West, 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:16.640 And this just doesn't line up well for the Panthers 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:20.520 at all this game, this matchup, Carolina is barn on 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:23.959 the worst rushing defense in the NFL, and of course 0:03:23.960 --> 0:03:25.919 the Seahawks are one of the best rushing teams in 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:29.679 the NFL. Just some fun Carolina rushing defense stats. First, 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:31.720 they ranked twenty ninth and rushing yards allowed per game. 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:35.200 They also rank last in yards per attempt at five 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.400 point three per carry, and they also rank dead last 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:42.080 in Football Outsiders DVA rating against the rush. They've also 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.080 given up twenty one rushing touchdowns this season. That's the 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.680 most in the NFL and seven more than the next 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:52.600 closest team. Meanwhile, the Seahawks rank fifth and rushing TV 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.640 away seventh the yards per attempt. I know the ox 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:57.920 for Shrod Penny for the year, but there's still some 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.560 backfield death with I think Precise is back there, still 0:04:01.600 --> 0:04:04.080 backing up Carson. I really like Carson this week. I 0:04:04.120 --> 0:04:06.320 think he has a really big game. And of course 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.600 they still have that Russell Wilson guy who's pretty good 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:12.880 and well the past Panthers pass defense excuse me, the 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:16.039 Panthers pass defense. I say that five times fast. Is 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.240 they haven't been as effective the last over the last 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:22.480 month or so, and for a team that just seems 0:04:22.480 --> 0:04:24.720 to have it sould gutted. I'm taking I'm laying the 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.360 points with the Seahawks here. They're they're they're motivated, they 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.800 have to win. They're frankly the much better team. Lay 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:30.240 the points. 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:33.120 Yeah, I'm in completely agreement with you on this one. 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:37.239 I'm a little surprised that, you know, our consensus isn't 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:40.279 more overwhelming. I mean, it's sixty seven percent taking sand 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:42.720 which is a pretty big number, and I'm surprised it's 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:44.920 not like eighty five percent. I mean, when you look 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:47.000 at the breakdown of both the number of bets in 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:49.320 the market and the money coming in, it is strongly 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:52.320 skewed towards Seattle, and I completely agree with you. I 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:54.599 feel like it's a little difficult at this point for 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:57.440 bookmakers because you know, everybody's got their models, and that's 0:04:57.440 --> 0:04:59.680 why you see some of these lines and you're like, well, 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:02.640 I feel like, generally speaking, the line should be much 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.560 greater than it necessarily is. And that's a lot because 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:08.440 you know, these the bookmakers, they don't react as heavily 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:10.760 to one or two games as maybe the public does. 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.680 But I mean, at this point, it is obvious from 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:17.279 ten thousand feet away that the Panthers are just mailing 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:20.680 it in at this point, right, they just can't do anything, 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:24.360 get anything right. The defense you mentioned it, they're terrible 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:27.560 against the run, and they've just completely given up since then. 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.040 They look like they just have no interest in tackling anybody. 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.080 Kyle Allen has completely come back down to earth. I'm 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:35.120 not even sure he's going to survive this entire game 0:05:35.200 --> 0:05:37.719 as a starting quarterback at this point. And like you 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:41.000 mentioned the Seahawks, I mean, not only are they coming 0:05:41.000 --> 0:05:43.600 off a loss, but they're pretty desperate for a win. 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:46.039 I mean it might be the difference between the number 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:49.279 two seed and the number five seeds, so it's pretty big. 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.560 So for me, I think this is a smash game 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:53.800 for everybody. I think Chris Carson's going to go nuts. 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:55.640 I think Russell Wilson's going to go nuts. I think 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:59.719 Tyler Lockett, who's finally recovered from his illnesses, is going 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:01.920 to go nuts. And again, you know, to the extent 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:05.520 you know, the Seattle pass defense has been not Seattle. 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:08.160 I'm sorry. The Carolina pass defense the whole season has 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:10.880 been decent. But I mean, I really think James Bradbury 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:12.760 is probably gonna match up on. 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:15.560 Metcalf at this point, right, I'd say so? Yeah, And 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:18.599 so that that whole unit has really come together, like 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:21.760 especially with now that Lockett is is healthy. I like 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:24.080 the way that Metcalf is playing. Even Josh Gordon is 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:27.640 like Carvin's his a little niche there, and it's it's 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:28.760 fun to see them play together. 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:30.720 Yeah. No, So I agree with you. I think this 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:32.960 is a smash butt for Seattle. I have, I mean 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:34.800 under a touchdown. I love it. I'm all over it 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.680 as well. So I'm with you for your first pick. 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:39.920 I think you're gonna be with me for my first 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.359 pick as well. And that's gonna be the Jaguars and 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:46.719 the Raiders going over forty five points. Since the Jaguars 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:50.360 by they have allowed thirty three, forty two, twenty eight 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:53.480 and forty five points. This is a defense that has 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:54.479 completely mailed it in. 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:56.440 I mean, you want to it makes it. 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:59.080 It makes Carolina look like they're playing their butts off 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.200 and desperately trying to get to the playoffs. Their rushed 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:03.400 defense is thirty first in the league in yards per 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:06.560 carried running backs at five point three, thirtieth in yards 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:08.320 per game at one hundred and forty one point one, 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:11.000 but that is nothing compared to their last three games, 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:13.400 in which they have allowed one hundred and sixty two 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:17.200 point seven rushing yards per game income the Raiders. Despite 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:20.440 their various offensive deficiencies, they can still run the ball 0:07:20.480 --> 0:07:23.400 behind that offensive line. It sounds like Josh Jacobs is 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:24.520 gonna play this weekend. 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:26.760 I mean, Joe's weird. Yeah, it was like, oh, he 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:28.440 might be done for the year, and now they're saying like, 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:29.480 oh no, just day to day. 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:31.600 I mean in the end, First of all, there were 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:33.360 a couple I mean, it sounds like John Gruden doesn't 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:35.720 want to play him necessarily, but their reports say they 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:38.320 looked great. And again, remember this is their last game 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:41.120 in Oakland, right, This is they want to they want 0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:43.320 to have a big performance here, so he's probably gonna 0:07:43.320 --> 0:07:46.520 play but even if he doesn't, DeAndre Washington is kind 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:48.440 of an underrated running back in the league. I think 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:50.600 he showed last week he can carry the load. They're 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:53.720 passing offense not great, but car played well against the Titans. 0:07:53.720 --> 0:07:56.160 They still have Darren Waller. They're capable of moving the ball. 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:58.000 I don't think Miles Jack is really going to be 0:07:58.000 --> 0:08:00.480 able to shut Waller down. And all though you know 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.720 the Jaguars run defense is abysmal, their pass defense lately 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:07.080 is almost just as bad. You saw Philip Rivers in 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:10.760 the midst of a horrific season totally light them up. 0:08:10.760 --> 0:08:12.800 They've allowed a ninety six point three passer raigning to 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.480 opposing quarterbacks on the season. That is tenth worst in 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.520 the league. It's been getting worse lately. This is really 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:23.280 just an understanding that the Jaguars have totally mailed it in. Now, Okay, fine, 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:27.680 that's defensively, but the Raiders they're pretty equally inept defensively 0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:31.280 at the moment. Thirty four forty forty two points. Those 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:33.320 are the points allowed over the last three games. One 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.439 of those is to my beloved Jets. The Raiders defense 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:38.920 has been abysmal against the past all season, right on 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:41.560 the surface, they've been decent against the run, but I've 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:43.840 never really bought that. I think their run defense has 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.560 largely been a little overrated, hidden a bit by the 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:49.920 fact that they are so bad against the pass. And look, 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:52.080 there's no shame in getting beat up by Derrick Henry, 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:54.280 but you saw what happened last week eighteen carries for 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:56.840 one hundred and three yards, and again, the pass defense 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:58.800 just terrible. They allowed two hundred and sixty eight passing 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:00.920 yards per game, twenty eighth in the league, one hundred 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:03.800 and five point nine QB rating against thirty first in 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:06.319 the league, and the Jags passing offense hasn't been great 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:08.559 even with Gardner Minshew. They're probably going to be down 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:10.320 Djhark in this game, but I think they can do 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:14.000 enough against this defense. Again, my only worry here legitimately 0:09:14.040 --> 0:09:15.880 is that because it's the last game in Oakland, you 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:17.719 see that crowd is going to be crazy. I'm sure 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:19.680 the Raiders are going to put up points. You could 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:22.360 see maybe their defense playing, you know, getting up for 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:25.200 this game and maybe shutting down the Jaguars. But overall, 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:26.520 I think in the end there's going to be a 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:28.080 lot of points scoring this game, So I'll take the 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.120 over forty five and not sweat too much about him. 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:32.480 I can't, I can't disagree too much. Of these teams 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:38.160 rank twenty ninth and thirty first in defensive DVOA this year, 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:41.400 so yeah, I like. Also, I also like, I think 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:44.280 Leonard Fournette will get a little more on track in 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:46.640 this game. He's been pretty pretty outstanding all year, which 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:50.040 is a relief to his fantasy owners. 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:50.840 Yeah. 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:54.600 Yeah, but the Raiders are going to have their hands full. 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:57.720 He seems to still be trying. I'll give him. I'll 0:09:57.720 --> 0:09:58.559 give him the credits. 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:01.079 Hey, and Minshew's trying. I mean he's out there, He's 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:02.280 running around like crazy. 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.000 But I love me some inshumanias. 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:08.120 Everybody loves it all. Let's move on to your second pick. 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:08.520 What do you have? 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:13.000 So we're jumping back into the same Seahawks and Panthers 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:18.800 game because while the Seahawks are doing have an opportunity 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:22.400 to put a lot of points on offense, the defense 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:27.080 also has some some issues that are I guess being 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:30.920 overlooked at this point. The Panthers have allowed thirty three 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:33.160 points per game over their last four games, so yeah, 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:36.880 they've they've quite slipped quite a bunch, and the Seahawks 0:10:36.920 --> 0:10:39.200 there's no reason to think they can't have a similar output. 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:43.080 Like we said before, or you said before, Wilson's gonna 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:45.600 have a great game. I think that as well. I 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:47.559 like we I also mentioned how I love how the 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:52.079 wide receiver Cord looks he has. Wilson has a standing 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:54.600 numbers this year thirty four hundred yards, sixty seven percent completions, 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.600 twenty six touchdowns, just five picks. And we also mentioned 0:10:57.800 --> 0:11:01.360 that the Panthers pass defense is just not up to 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:03.199 snuff anymore. But the question here is whether or not 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.720 Carolina can score enough points to get this one over, 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:08.400 and I think they can. Seattle doesn't grade out the 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:12.319 best on defense, ranking twenty second against the rush in DVOA, 0:11:12.760 --> 0:11:15.079 and now they have to deal with Christian McCaffrey this week. 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:18.079 I know he has definitely cooled off and he's definitely 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:21.800 not any part of the MVP conversation anymore, but we 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.400 all know what he's capable of, and he can break 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.360 a big one at any time. The Seahawks are also 0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:29.920 really vulnerable over the middle of the field, particularly against 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:32.600 tight ends, and now I hear that Greg Olsen might 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:38.000 be back. I'm not sure why, but I think Ian 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:41.880 Thomas can also be effective in this spot. And obviously 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:43.600 Kyle Allen is not going to vow you in any 0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:46.439 shape or form, but he has some good weapons. That 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.960 is a disposal. And yeah, I think the Seahawks are 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:53.120 gonna have some issues come playoff time, but in and 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.800 I think the Panthers can actually show that by scoring 0:11:55.840 --> 0:11:58.440 some points here. And I like the over forty eight. 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.319 Disagree. I think that in the end, like I said, 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:05.560 I expect this to be kind of a smash game 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.960 for the Seahawks, especially offensively. The thing is like, you know, 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.440 you think about the Seahawks and historically you're like, ooh, 0:12:11.600 --> 0:12:14.520 you know, they've got this really great defense, you know, 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:17.040 and you reliant rust Wilson, but it's not really the 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.280 case anymore. I mean, their defense is fine, but it's 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:22.319 not elite at this point anymore. So, I you know, 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:24.480 as much as I don't have faith in Kyle Allen, 0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:26.200 I do think that they're gonna be able to put 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:28.360 a points in this game. And again, I expect a 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.080 lot of points from the Seahawks at this point. So 0:12:31.559 --> 0:12:33.640 I like both of those picks. So far, so so far, 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:35.520 we're doing good. We're on the same page. I don't. 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:36.680 I hope you're good. 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:40.560 Sorry. I think if they get anywhere around seventeen to 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:42.640 twenty points, I think, I think this one goes over 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:43.240 all right. 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:45.440 For my second pick, I'm going to be taking the 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:49.400 Eagles and the Redskins under. It's now at thirty nine, okay, 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:51.920 And this happens almost every time I take my pick. 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:54.120 I get it in and then when I check right 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.480 before we record, it has moved. And at least that 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.320 gives me some confidence that my inkling was correct. Thirty 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:01.480 nine is a small I originally had it at forty 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:03.319 and a half. It was forty when I decided to 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.679 take it here, and now it's thirty nine. I don't care. 0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.160 I'm still taking it back in college, all right, Uh, Andrew, 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.000 my buddies and I were sitting around late at night 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:13.400 and some really dumb infomercial came on. I do not 0:13:13.440 --> 0:13:16.080 remember the product. It was something that no rational human 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.599 would ever buy. And one of the guys just randomly 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.080 blurted out in kind of a weird voice, whatever they're asking, 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:26.800 I'll double it. And that line has always like popped 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:28.440 into my head whenever I see something that I am 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:30.880 actually interested in. So I was talking about this total 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:32.640 with one of the guys and he said, oh, I 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:34.840 wonder what the big is on it, And all I 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.200 could think was, whatever they're asking, I'll double it. I 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:40.480 don't care what this is. At this point. I'm all 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.520 in on this game. I'm having a hard time seeing 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:46.040 how this total gets past like thirty six, maybe at max. 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:48.160 I mean, kudos to the Eagles for beating the Giants 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.880 on Monday Night, but are you kidding me? Right now? 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.040 With this offense? Alshon Jeffrey is done for the year. 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.480 Lane Johnson is not going to play. You're pinning your 0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:58.679 hopes on Nelson Agalore, which is really a scary proposition, 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.839 and he's probably gonna be too, so literally, it's gonna 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:05.240 be Carson Wentz, Miles Sanders and like fifty tight ends 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:06.920 that they're just going to be throwing out there. It's 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:08.720 really difficult to see them moving the ball, even if 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:11.440 Jordan Howard comes back, which sounds like he actually might 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:15.040 have a chance. The Redskins, though they have not mailed 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:17.480 it in. I mean, they continue to play hard. They 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:19.520 get a lot of pressure on the quarterback. They are 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.960 top five in the league at getting pressure. Especially without 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.720 Lane Johnson protecting Wentz, it's gonna make it a little 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:29.640 tough for him. And overall, the defense is not the worst. 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.200 They're decent upfront, and it's really about just how the 0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:35.760 Eagles are so decimated offensively and now they are coming 0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:37.920 off this short week. And then on the other side 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:39.440 of the ball, you have the Redskins, a team led by 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.760 Dwayne Haskins and a coach who is legitimately trying to 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.800 run out the season. They run the ball nearly as 0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.120 much as any team other than the Raven since Bill 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:49.800 Callahan took over, the fifth most in the league in 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:53.560 that span. Dwayne Haskins, as anybody who has watched a 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:57.520 football game understands, is not performing particularly well for obvious 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:00.520 reasons this year. He also takes a ton of sacks. 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:03.320 The Redskins take a ton of time in between plays. 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:06.600 They're legitimately trying to run out the season. And the Eagles, 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.440 they have a really solid run defense. That's the one 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:10.880 thing that you can kind of count on with them. 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:13.840 You're not gonna see many explosive plays, especially with Darius 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.840 Geis out. You've got Adrian Peterson carrying the ball. That's 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.520 not gonna make these you know, huge chunk plays or 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.240 anything like Geist was at least cable to get. Really, 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.280 I just see that both teams are gonna run the 0:15:25.280 --> 0:15:27.600 ball a lot. It's difficult to see either one of 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.280 them having much success. Running leads to clock movement, which 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:32.360 tem swards the under So even at thirty nine a 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.480 low number, I'm okay with it, I'm gonna take it. 0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:39.400 Uh, yeah, I have. I have no real disagreement here. 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:41.440 You stole a bunch of my notes leading into my 0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:44.880 next pick. Here, I'm I'm taking the Eagles minus four 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:48.600 and a half for my final pick. But my first 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:52.240 line was here, Bill Callahan literally looks like he's trying 0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:56.680 to run out the clock on the season. Yeah one, 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.760 Like you said, Dwayne Haskins not look good. Guy's done 0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:02.200 for the year, which is kind of a bummer because 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:06.400 I really was enjoyed watching him play. But they also 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.520 rank thirty first in Offensive DVD away because of that 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.640 play from Haskins and the way Adrian Peterson runs the 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:16.520 ball plots. He's definitely more of a plotter these days. 0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.280 And they also here are the teams with fewer yards 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:24.360 per play than Washington this year, Chicago, Miami and your 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.840 New York Jets. You mentioned the Eagles are not great 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:31.600 ton of injuries all that, But I think Doug Peterson 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:36.160 is finally recognizing the talent he has. And Miles Sanders, 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:38.080 I think he's set up for a big game here 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:42.480 against a Washington defense that doesn't greed well against the run. 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:47.520 They do get pressure. But Wentz, I don't know. Wentz 0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:49.600 is an enigma to me, Like sometimes he makes these 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.640 great throws that he shouldn't be making, and then other 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.880 times he misses these really easy throws. It's really frustrating, 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:58.240 so it's hard to have faith in him. But I 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.440 think they lean on Sanders in this game. I think 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:05.240 Ertz will probably have a good game as well. Maybe 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.040 a guy like Dallas Goddard has like eight receptions for 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:10.760 like fifty yards and sets up a touchdown or something. 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:13.159 I don't know, but I think this number at this 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.200 number was higher before. As we talked of off area, 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:16.840 it was close. It was six before, and now it's 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:18.639 coming down to four and a half. Anything under six 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:21.160 I'm comfortable taking, just because I don't I don't see 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.200 Washington scoring for the most part, and which leads into 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:28.120 your underplay, so we'll we'll take We'll take the Eagles 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:29.760 as well at minus four and a half. 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:32.000 Yeah, I don't have a great feel for it. I'm 0:17:32.040 --> 0:17:33.879 gonna be honest. I mean, I think if I was 0:17:34.000 --> 0:17:36.160 forced to take aside probably at four and a half, 0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:39.840 there's value with with the Eagles at that point. I 0:17:39.880 --> 0:17:41.240 did lock in, I'll be honest. I mean, you go 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.719 to betting pros dot com. You can see how I 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.480 or any of you know, the top betting experts in 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.199 the country really are betting any particular game. And I 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:52.240 locked it in when I saw the Redskins getting six. 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:54.280 As you talked about it, sounds like you really wouldn't 0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:57.200 necessarily be interested in the Eagles at that number. And again, 0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:00.280 part of it is just it's really difficult to see 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.440 the Eagles putting up a ton of points here, right, No, right, 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:06.280 But at four and a half it's a little closer. 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:08.320 It's not a game that I would personally bet because 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:10.760 it's something that makes me a little bit nervous just 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:13.560 backing the Eagles in any capacity at this point. 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:17.399 They're motivated now though they're so close to that division title. 0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:18.919 I know, man, but they're gonna be able to get 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:20.880 that division title no matter what. They could just beat 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:22.840 the Cowboys at the end, so it's all good. I 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.520 love how everybody who's terrible just controls her own destiny 0:18:25.560 --> 0:18:26.240 because it doesn't. 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:29.000 Matter now what it's dumpster fires is this? 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.240 Yeah, Yeah, it's funny. I mean, look, I like once, 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.040 I think he's a good quarterback. I understand the criticism 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:36.960