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Speaker 1: If you currently are a convertible bond hedge fund or

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Speaker 1: a bond desk and you're not in this trade, you're

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Speaker 1: getting absolutely crushed publicly and embarrassed by your competitors that

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Speaker 1: are in the trade.

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Speaker 2: Bitcoin does not kill the dollar. Bitcoin pulls value from

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Speaker 2: other store value assets. The dollar doesn't have to die

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Speaker 2: for Bitcoin to succeed.

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Speaker 1: Bitcoin doesn't need to steal from any of the other

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Speaker 1: buckets of store of value to twenty million dollars a coin,

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Speaker 1: it can just expand the tam for store of value

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Speaker 1: companies that are unloved from a multiple standpoint because they

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Speaker 1: cash flow but they aren't growing, that's usually a good target.

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Speaker 1: Now for private equity, and now everyone kind of understands

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Speaker 1: that there's an optimal amount of leverage to add to

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Speaker 1: the balance sheet, meaning you should take out some debt

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Speaker 1: and service that debt with your cash flows, use all

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Speaker 1: the tools at you're disposal to lever up and buy bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: The amount of public list of companies have been going down,

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Speaker 2: private equity and venture have been going up. I personally

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Speaker 2: know a handful of friends who have bought companies back

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Speaker 2: from private equity because they ran into the ground. So

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Speaker 2: now maybe there's another option where these companies don't have

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Speaker 2: to sell the private equity, so they can just take

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Speaker 2: the cashual they have and then let that up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, cash is king all over again because the cash

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Speaker 1: can become bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: So it gives them an option that wasn't on the

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Speaker 2: table and now there's another way they can grow their

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Speaker 2: business without private equek.

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Speaker 1: The US actually buying bitcoin. There's two levels of a

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Speaker 1: US SBR. One would be saying, hey, we're just going

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Speaker 1: to hold onto what we have because they've confiscated coins

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Speaker 1: from various cases over the years. They have a little

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Speaker 1: over two hundred thousand coins in custody, so they could

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Speaker 1: just keep that. As far as actually buying bitcoins, all right.

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Speaker 2: Corey Clifton, founder CEO Swan Bitcoin Pleasure, I've been trying

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Speaker 2: to get you down here to the studio for like ever.

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Speaker 2: It seems like, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Well you had to entice me with a holiday party

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Speaker 1: because that's a three and a half hour drive. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I just got here. The drive.

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Speaker 2: The drive is brutal southern California. You don't have to

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Speaker 2: go very far. Yeah, we have a holiday party tonight,

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Speaker 2: the Bitcoin Coastal Party Coastal California, coastal California, and you

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Speaker 2: and I have toked about bringing bitcoin ins too southern

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Speaker 2: California for a while, and you've done well with that

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Speaker 2: with your life events, the salons, the Swan soalngs that

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Speaker 2: you do on a regular basis. So sorry to miss

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Speaker 2: that last one. I was the sickest I've ever been.

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Speaker 2: Don't need to go into that, but tonight, I mean,

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Speaker 2: in my little tiny little beach down down here where

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Speaker 2: there's nobody around here, we have like one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty people registered and it kind of shows where we're

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Speaker 2: at in the market. But we're running short on time,

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Speaker 2: and I want to jump into a couple of big topics.

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Speaker 2: You with SWAN bitcoin kind of pioneered, really pushed through

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Speaker 2: like the bitcoin only company, you know, Exchange and really

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Speaker 2: pioneered that, did really really good job with the education

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Speaker 2: and content around that. And I know you've spent time

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Speaker 2: previous to that in traditional finance trad FI, if you will,

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Speaker 2: and even with SWAN a lot of time in trad

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Speaker 2: FI as well, So I want to talk about that

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Speaker 2: specifically right now, and really what's going on with micro

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Speaker 2: strategy micro sailor, which seems to be the hottest topic

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Speaker 2: in the world right now. But what I want to ask,

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Speaker 2: because it seems like I'm seeing just coming back from

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Speaker 2: Abu Dhabi, the capital of capital they call it, Bitcoin

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Speaker 2: is coming into finance in all kinds of creative ways.

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Speaker 2: Do you think what he's doing is shifting his overton window?

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Speaker 2: Is it reinventing corporate balance sheets the way bonds are

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Speaker 2: being done?

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Speaker 1: Like?

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Speaker 2: What are you seeing from that?

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Speaker 1: So what I'm seeing with in particular, what I would

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Speaker 1: call leverage bitcoin equities, like micro Strategy, I think Similar

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Speaker 1: is probably the purest follower that's kind of on the

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Speaker 1: micro strategy playbook and is kind of the second real LBE.

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Speaker 1: You also have a Marathon and Riot doing this to

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Speaker 1: some degree. Obviously much bigger companies than Similar, so they're

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Speaker 1: kind of doing it, but they're a little bit more

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Speaker 1: encumbered by their business model, whereas micro Strategy's business model

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Speaker 1: is kind of orthogonal and not important to the LBE strategy,

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Speaker 1: so it's not a positive or a negative. Similarly, with

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Speaker 1: Similar not a positive or a negative. But I liken this,

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Speaker 1: and I've been talking a lot with folks on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: This feels a lot like LBOs in the eighties, so

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Speaker 1: leverage buyouts, and it's something that wasn't done before and

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Speaker 1: it's a bit of an unlocked to the capital structure.

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Speaker 1: So this was a lot of companies realizing that, hey,

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Speaker 1: these companies that are unloved from a multiple standpoint because

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Speaker 1: they cash flow but they aren't growing. That's usually a

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Speaker 1: good target now for private equity, and that didn't used

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Speaker 1: to be done. And now everyone kind of understands that

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Speaker 1: there's an optimal amount of leverage to add to the

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Speaker 1: balance sheet, meaning you should take out some debt and

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Speaker 1: service that debt with your cash flows and use that

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Speaker 1: to buy backstock or in this case, now the new

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Speaker 1: theme is not LBOs but lbes and use that cash

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Speaker 1: flow or use that, you know, arbitrage between your market

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Speaker 1: cap and the net asset value of your bitcoin and

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Speaker 1: the way that MicroStrategy is doing, use that, use all

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Speaker 1: the tools at you're disposal to lever up and buy bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's what's going on. I do think

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Speaker 1: at some point it'll overshoot and there will be at

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Speaker 1: mania at some point, and that's fine, everyone will call bubble.

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Speaker 1: It'll actually just be a local top. There will be

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Speaker 1: a crash and then it will surge back up, and

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Speaker 1: at some point when we look back five or ten

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Speaker 1: or twenty years from now, these lbes will be a

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Speaker 1: huge category of companies. There will be you know, coverage

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Speaker 1: groups at Wall Street investment banks that focus just on this,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of them are starting to think about

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Speaker 1: spinning up right now. So that's what's happening.

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Speaker 2: So let me kind of recite this and see if

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Speaker 2: we got this right. So there's sort of this category

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Speaker 2: of business. So, first of all, we've seen that over

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Speaker 2: the last decade or so a couple of decades, the

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Speaker 2: amount of public list of companies have been going down,

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Speaker 2: private equity and venture have been going up. So a

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Speaker 2: lot of companies are going that path. There's a lot

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Speaker 2: of companies who are unloved to your words that you

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Speaker 2: used public companies because they're just low growth companies. So

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Speaker 2: like a software company like micro Strategy, which has a

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Speaker 2: steady customer base. It's a very sticky product, so the

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Speaker 2: cash flow is really good, but there's no growth really,

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Speaker 2: so there's not a good multiple. So those types there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of those types of businesses. They're good businesses,

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Speaker 2: but they're not sexy, they're not going fast so that's

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Speaker 2: a prime takeout for private equity. But what you're saying

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Speaker 2: is private equity back to a mania. We've sort of

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Speaker 2: seen the private equity mania. We've seen the fallout of that.

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Speaker 2: I personally know a handful of friends who have bought

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Speaker 2: companies back from private equity because they ran into the ground.

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Speaker 2: So now maybe there's another option where these companies don't

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Speaker 2: have to sell the private equity, so they can just

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Speaker 2: take the cash where they have and then lever that up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, cash is king all over again because the cash

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Speaker 1: can become bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: So it gives them an option that wasn't on the table,

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Speaker 2: and now there's another way they can grow their business

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Speaker 2: without private equity.

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Speaker 1: That's right, yep.

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Speaker 2: Now would this become a mania? Some might call it

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Speaker 2: a Ponzi scheme because you're just basically having this reflexive

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Speaker 2: loop of levering it up, and this reflexive loop it's

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Speaker 2: now created a mania. It's like, well, shoot, it worked

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Speaker 2: so well for micro Strategy. They've been like, I think

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Speaker 2: the best performing stock over the last four years, not

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Speaker 2: certainly one of them. So then now we're seeing a

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Speaker 2: lot of people starting to rush to adopt that. So

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Speaker 2: could this turn into menia sort of like the private

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Speaker 2: equity bubble. Maybe the we've seen this obviously through a

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Speaker 2: couple different ones. How far away do you think we

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Speaker 2: are from something like that or are we just in

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Speaker 2: the early innings of this.

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Speaker 1: It's the earliest of the early innings because there's really

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Speaker 1: only one company actually executing it today and similar got

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Speaker 1: their options listed yesterday. Yesterday morning, I think they started

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Speaker 1: trading okay. And that's kind of required to be on

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Speaker 1: the full LBE strategy or LBE playbook, is to have

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Speaker 1: those options because if you're going to lever up, the

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Speaker 1: easiest instrument to do that with is these convertible bonds.

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Speaker 1: That's all the offerings that micro Strategy has been doing

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Speaker 1: the last few years. And to do that, over eighty

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Speaker 1: percent of the buy volume is going to come from

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Speaker 1: these convertible bond funds, the hedge funds that want to

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Speaker 1: hedge it off right away and isolate the bond from

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Speaker 1: the call option, and they need those options to be

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Speaker 1: able to do that. Right, So you've got a bond

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Speaker 1: and then you've got the stock, and then you've got

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Speaker 1: the option, and they need to be able to sell

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Speaker 1: a call option to match the implied call option that's

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Speaker 1: embedded in the convert so that they can just be

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Speaker 1: neutral in their position. And you know, kind of the

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Speaker 1: magic of what Sailor and Shurish and the micro strategy

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Speaker 1: team have been doing is they're deliberately pricing this under

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Speaker 1: what it's worth, which is why they fly off the

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Speaker 1: shelves and they're always over subscribed and it's just always

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Speaker 1: a hot ticket. And so now this you know, cadre

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Speaker 1: of bankers that controls who gets access to it. They

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Speaker 1: get to be kingmakers, they get to move up in

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Speaker 1: their league tables, and it's just created this kind of

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Speaker 1: this swell of like trying to be in the club,

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Speaker 1: and there's a bunch of people not in the club,

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Speaker 1: both the seller's club of the banks that get to

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Speaker 1: sell the bonds and the buyer's club, which Hedge fund

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Speaker 1: gets two hundred million, which gets four hundred million, which

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Speaker 1: doesn't get in, right, or which pension fund doesn't get in?

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Speaker 1: Or does allions get in the initial offering or do

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Speaker 1: they have to buy aftermarket like they did they bought

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Speaker 1: the March convert last month. So if similar can move

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Speaker 1: up the league table, or even companies that may or

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Speaker 1: may not be, depending on your opinions, like as good

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Speaker 1: a fit for the strategy, like a Marathon or a Riot.

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Speaker 1: You saw Marathon issue one point eight billion of converts

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Speaker 1: at zero coupon in one month in November, you know,

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Speaker 1: and that's a that's a bitcoin minor that you know,

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Speaker 1: some would say is kind of negatively pro cyclical with

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Speaker 1: an LBE strategy and a bear market, because that's usually

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Speaker 1: when minors sell bitcoin, and so bitcoin price would be

201
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Speaker 1: under pressure, your stock's under pressure, and you need to

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Speaker 1: invest a lot and probably sell a lot of assets

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Speaker 1: to build for the next bowl market. So it's maybe

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Speaker 1: not the best fit there, but anyway, it's all fascinating.

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Speaker 1: It's fun. As you mentioned as somebody that does have

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Speaker 1: an MBA and finance from twenty years ago but has

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Speaker 1: been in startups for the last ten twelve years to

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Speaker 1: dust all of that off, and you know, check the

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Speaker 1: rolodex and see where people are sitting now twenty years

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Speaker 1: after I graduated from business school and they're all on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street running shit. Yeah, and now they all want

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Speaker 1: to talk.

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Speaker 2: A small business owner. Are you buried in all types

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Speaker 2: of work keeping you from the real thing that makes

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Speaker 2: you money? Well that's where just Works comes in. They're

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Speaker 2: the all in one platform that supports small business growth.

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Speaker 2: You can get all their tools that help with benefits

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Speaker 2: do I do it? Question? You can reach out to

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Speaker 2: their expert staff from sole proprietor or a team of twenty.

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Speaker 2: Just Works empowers all kinds of small businesses with real

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Speaker 2: human support. So visit justworks dot com slash podcast to

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Speaker 2: join the thousands of small businesses that trust just works

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Speaker 2: to take care of payroll, benefits, compliance and more. Again,

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Speaker 2: that's Justworks dot com slash podcasts. But just like bitcoin

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Speaker 2: is reinvent in a lot of things. But it's reinventing finance.

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Speaker 2: It's reinventing the way we think about that obviously a

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Speaker 2: lot of it because of the returns, the way that

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Speaker 2: the cloud works. Is this reinventing sort of this market

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Speaker 2: and creating this new market or is it only kind

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Speaker 2: of the same old playbook with this new asset. And

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Speaker 2: the reason why I asked her is because I see

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Speaker 2: a lot of Tradify guys, the CNBC guys, et cetera,

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Speaker 2: a lot of guys on Twitter who just can't seem

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Speaker 2: to grasp this. Yeah, and this has to be the

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Speaker 2: biggest bubble, the biggest ponzi in the world. So what

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Speaker 2: are they missing? Is it being reinvented or what is

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Speaker 2: it that they're missing? It was something so new they

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Speaker 2: just haven't caught on yet.

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Speaker 1: So I want to say two things. One is, I

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Speaker 1: don't know what the number of hours is now, given

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Speaker 1: that bitcoin signals pretty strong, but it's still probably one

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Speaker 1: hundred hours a thousand, maybe a thousand to get like

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Speaker 1: conviction about bitcoin. But like if you were only reading

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Speaker 1: the right things, you could probably get pretty close. I

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Speaker 1: think in one hundred hours of focus study. Yeah, the

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Speaker 1: incremental ten or twenty that you need to understand the

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Speaker 1: leverage bitcoin equity strategy is on top of having conviction

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Speaker 1: on bitcoin in the first place. Otherwise you come underlying

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Speaker 1: business If I am sure, yeah, yeah, then there's a

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Speaker 1: bunch of other things. That's assuming that you come from

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Speaker 1: tradfy and already have that background and understand converts and

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Speaker 1: options and delta hedging, gamma hedging, volatility smiles like all

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Speaker 1: the different things that you need to kind of understand.

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Speaker 1: You would still need to get over the hump on

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Speaker 1: bitcoin to really get in. But the second thing I

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Speaker 1: would say, and we were kind of talking about this

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Speaker 1: in the pre show, institutions that got into bitcoin before

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Speaker 1: this this micro strategy pump in the fall and after

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Speaker 1: the election and everything kind of opted in. They didn't

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Speaker 1: have to, right. It's like, Okay, Larry Finks saw the opportunity,

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Speaker 1: and Abby at Fidelity saw the opportunity. The vanguard and

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Speaker 1: Schwabs didn't see it or didn't want to make the play.

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Speaker 1: Buff I didn't want to make the plane. Nothing was

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Speaker 1: dragging them kicking and screaming into bitcoin. If you currently

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Speaker 1: are a convertible bond hedge fund or a bond desk

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Speaker 1: and you're not in this trade, you're getting absolutely crushed

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Speaker 1: publicly and embarrassed by your competitors that are in the trade.

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Speaker 1: And so you know, I was just out in New

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Speaker 1: York and hosted an event last Monday, seems like forever ago,

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Speaker 1: nine days ago. And you know, usually when you interface

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Speaker 1: with with tradfi about bitcoin, you might sort of call

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Speaker 1: ten people and get two to show up. In this case,

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Speaker 1: we called like ten people and thirty showed up.

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Speaker 2: Wow.

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Speaker 1: You know, they brought friends and the friends brought friends,

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Speaker 1: and we had one of the big ib's whole convert

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Speaker 1: desk came and you know, a couple of the analysts

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Speaker 1: came from another bank, and you know, a guy that

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Speaker 1: runs three hundred bankers at Goldman came from the markets group,

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Speaker 1: like and they're all there asking about bitcoin. And thank goodness,

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Speaker 1: we had five or six people that knew enough to

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Speaker 1: kind of, you know, be the center of the semi

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Speaker 1: circle in these groups. But the reason they're there is

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Speaker 1: they're getting dragged, kicking and screaming into it. They can't

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Speaker 1: not be in it. They have to know about it now.

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Speaker 1: It's not optional for real for institutions. So the way

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Speaker 1: I see it, this red wave with the election, this

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Speaker 1: sort of more and more people who have credibility on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street and in tradfi actually having done the work

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Speaker 1: and understanding not just bitcoin but also this LBE playbook

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Speaker 1: and gaining conviction on it and being able to explain

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Speaker 1: it with the credibility of their resume and the schools

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Speaker 1: they went to and the jobs that they've had to

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Speaker 1: people that look like them. That's institutional adoption.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know one thing I had this presentation I

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Speaker 2: gave a Bitcoin miena a couple two weeks ago. I

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Speaker 2: think I talked about this evolutionary process and mapping bitcoin's

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Speaker 2: adoptions like over a fifty year period, and I talked

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Speaker 2: about how the seeds of institutional adoption came early twenty thirteen.

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Speaker 2: You know, VC started coming in twenty seventeen, Fidelity came

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Speaker 2: in and so it came. So we've been and then

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Speaker 2: this the CME, CBOE futures came in twenty seventeen, So

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Speaker 2: institutions were coming, but it wasn't it's not really intel now.

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Speaker 2: So the seeds were there, right, but twenty ten to

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty was more like the frenzy that was like retail.

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Speaker 2: Twenty twenty twenty thirty is then like this institutional piece

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Speaker 2: and we're seeing it right. So now a front and

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Speaker 2: center for like a company like Swan Bitcoin. You're not

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Speaker 2: a public traded company, you don't have the options like this.

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Speaker 2: How do you think about applying and if you don't

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Speaker 2: want to give us proprietary secrets, but how do businesses

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Speaker 2: think about applying bitcoin to their businesses? Their balance youes

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Speaker 2: things like that if they can't play and not.

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Speaker 1: To have a market. Yeah. So I mean for us,

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Speaker 1: we do have a bitcoin treasury, and we have a

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Speaker 1: bitcoin treasury strategy, and we talk about it with the

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Speaker 1: board and we set roles and we accumulate bitcoin over time,

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Speaker 1: and you know, the goal, as I've often stated publicly,

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Speaker 1: like we do intend to be a public company, and

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Speaker 1: there is a very strong rationale for doing a flavor

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Speaker 1: of an LB playbook as a public company. If you're

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Speaker 1: a company like Swan, right, it kind of makes sense,

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Speaker 1: you know, you would have you know, Swan shareholders would

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Speaker 1: be natural clients, just like we have a lot of

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Speaker 1: micro strategy and similar shareholders who are Swan clients for

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Speaker 1: all of their other Bitcoin needs, whether they want you know,

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Speaker 1: to buy real bitcoin or custody it or collaborative custody

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Speaker 1: or iras or whatever. So that synergy is definitely there

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Speaker 1: and has a logic to it. And then we obviously

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Speaker 1: need to be up to speed on this for all

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Speaker 1: of our company clients because we have over two thousand

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Speaker 1: business clients that Swan that we serve that are sacking

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Speaker 1: you know, for their balance sheet and so you know

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Speaker 1: they're looking at this for Okay, what parts of that

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Speaker 1: lbe playbook? Can I apply it to my business? Okay?

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Speaker 2: So then are you trying to kind of consult them

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Speaker 2: and help them a little bit?

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Speaker 1: We do every day. Yeah, we do every day. We've

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Speaker 1: been doing that for years. We've had business clients since.

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Speaker 2: Are they also being dragged into this kicking and screaming,

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Speaker 2: meaning they see it's like the gunpowder right now? Right?

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Speaker 1: They're doing it optionally? Yeah, the gunpowder analogy, which I'm

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Speaker 1: sure a million people have tweeted out recently, but you know,

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Speaker 1: it actually applies now for real. I think is very

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Speaker 1: applicable to these people that are in the convertible bond business.

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Speaker 1: And as we saw this morning, uh, you know, micro

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Speaker 1: Strategy is going to issue normal corporate debt, you know,

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Speaker 1: fixed coupon debt probably in January.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's a much much, much bigger pie. It's

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Speaker 1: one hundred times bigger than the converts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I launched a company called Matador YEP in the

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Speaker 2: Toronto Stock Exchange, the venture fund. Venture Exchange went live

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Speaker 2: trading Monday, a couple of days ago. So we raised

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Speaker 2: a bunch of money for bitcoin and we're deploying a

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Speaker 2: similar strategy. Nice, we're a little little, little little micro

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Speaker 2: playoff of that. So we're hoping to kind of maybe

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Speaker 2: get to those markets as well.

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Speaker 1: Though sometimes those percentage gains on the on the small guys,

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Speaker 1: as you've seen with Metaplanet and somewihere.

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Speaker 2: You know, there were like a sister couppany with Metaplanet.

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Speaker 2: So we have a lot of data going back and forth.

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Speaker 2: But we're hoping to be good to play the same

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Speaker 2: strategy or in North America. So that's pretty exciting. Okay,

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's changing everything. Now it's in the one hundred,

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Speaker 2: the Nasdaq one hundred, right, I mean, And so the

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Speaker 2: world of finance is very competitive, is kind of what

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Speaker 2: you're saying. And the reason why they're being dragged in

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Speaker 2: kicking and screaming is because they're getting smoked by companies

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Speaker 2: that have applied this strategy. And so because it's so competitive,

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Speaker 2: the gunpowder analogy, if you want to compete, then you

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Speaker 2: have to do this. That's the game theory.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so we have that happening right now. Obviously. Now

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Speaker 2: let's jump to the higher level, which is the other

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Speaker 2: part of this institutional or sovereign vomo. So I would

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Speaker 2: imagine the way that I see it is the same

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Speaker 2: game theory that applies to because the world's run in competition.

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Speaker 2: The same game theory that applies to institutions also applies

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Speaker 2: to sovereigns. So now we have talk of the United

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Speaker 2: States opening up an SBR strategic Bitcoin Reserve, lots of

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Speaker 2: talk of other nations doing that. We can talk about

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Speaker 2: that specifically, But my question is right now, I've been

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Speaker 2: seeing some chatter and Nick Carter just came on and

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Speaker 2: he thinks it's a bad idea for the government to

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Speaker 2: do that because it would signal that that's the end

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Speaker 2: of the dollar. Curious your take on that.

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Speaker 1: So let's lay out for the audience what rumors are

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Speaker 1: kind of out there. So there's two levels of a

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Speaker 1: US SBR. One would be saying, hey, we're just going

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Speaker 1: to hold on to what we have because they've confiscated

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Speaker 1: coins from various cases over the years. They have a

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Speaker 1: little over two hundred thousand coins in custody, so they

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Speaker 1: could just keep that. I think that's there's a much

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Speaker 1: more than fifty percent chance that that happens. I think

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Speaker 1: there's still a much more than fifty more than five zero.

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Speaker 1: H it's ticking up. It's ticking up because you're seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot of members of the Trump administration talk about it,

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Speaker 1: and I think he wants to chalk up that win,

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Speaker 1: and it doesn't require a budget very process to do it, right,

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Speaker 1: So I think that they'll probably do that and call

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Speaker 1: it a w But hey, we have an SBR and

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Speaker 1: we delivered on a campaign promise whatever, and everybody has

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Speaker 1: a party. I'm still in the camp. Although it's ticking up.

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, maybe two weeks ago, the US

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Speaker 1: actually buying bitcoin was probably low single digit percentage chance

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Speaker 1: in my mind, and now I'd say it's like upper

411
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Speaker 1: single digit percentage chance. So it went from like a

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Speaker 1: three to an eight or a nine.

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Speaker 2: It was a twenty five to thirty percent chance on polymarket.

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Speaker 1: For what specifically having an SBA, will Trump.

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Speaker 2: Create bitcoin reserve in the first one hundred.

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Speaker 1: Days, right, So that's what I have at sixty seventy percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so it was as high as it was, as

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Speaker 2: high as thirty nine, or was as high as forty.

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Speaker 2: Right now it's in a thirty four percent chance.

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Speaker 1: So I'm a buyer on that bet because that's a

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Speaker 1: good bet because that's just do you keep the bitcoin

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Speaker 1: that you have and call it an SBR. As far

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Speaker 1: as actually buying bitcoin, I don't think it will happen.

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Speaker 2: It says the market will resolve to yes if the

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Speaker 2: government holds any amount of bitcoin in its reserves at

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Speaker 2: any point.

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Speaker 1: Right, So I think they will do that. Yeah, So

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Speaker 1: I think.

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Speaker 2: That's before April, before April twenty nine, twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: makes sense, well, timebox on note, the US government compscating

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Speaker 2: bitcoin does not count as holding bitcoin reserves.

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Speaker 1: That's a tough one.

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Speaker 2: So but if they move but if they move it over,

434
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,359
Speaker 2: there's not enough details here, so they would have to

435
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 2: move it.

436
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: I think if they so, what I'm saying leave market aside.

437
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 1: What I'm saying is if they actually create something that

438
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 1: you know substantively is called the SBR Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

439
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 1: or is similar, and they actually place this confiscated bitcoin

440
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: and move it out of the DOJ or the FBI

441
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 1: or whoever's holding it and put it in that that's

442
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,479
Speaker 1: a strategic Bitcoin reserve. That's what I think. There's more

443
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: than a fifty percent chance happening. I think there's a

444
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 1: sub ten percent chance that the US actually buys the

445
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 1: coin with its own budget. What you were saying in

446
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 1: the pre show, you know, Powell said, we can't do

447
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: that today, so there would be a new law that

448
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 1: needs to get passed. I just think with all the

449
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: different priorities that the new administration has, they're not gonna

450
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 1: that's something that's going to get horse traded away in

451
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: favor of you know, more Department of Governmental Efficiency or yeah,

452
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 1: you know, whatever it is that their other priorities are

453
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: something I'm crazy, you could be right.

454
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 2: It sounds like a pretty reasonable but it's okay.

455
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: We're also not going to get you know, no cap

456
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 1: gains tax. Yeah, like that's been bandied about. That's a

457
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: that's a pipe dream to get rid of cap gains

458
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,200
Speaker 1: tax on bitcoin in the next two years.

459
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 2: One thing that I would say, though, why, I think

460
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 2: that is a big win. I talked to my fund

461
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 2: partners become Opportunity for Fun today and we were talking

462
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 2: about this, and they were also saying that the market,

463
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 2: some of my partners were thinking that the market has

464
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: priced in this buying on the SBR and get them

465
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 2: to a million, right, two hundred thousand a year for

466
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 2: the next five years, and if that doesn't happen, then

467
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 2: the market would be disappointed and potentially sell off. And

468
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 2: I said, sort of like you, I said, even if

469
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: we just keep these coins and move them over, I

470
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: think that's a win. And here's why I think that's

471
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 2: a win, because when I was at Bitcoinnena, Trump sent

472
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: his delegates over there. He didn't go, but Eric Trump

473
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: was there, Paul Mannifort was there right speaking, and just

474
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 2: them showing up I think said something. And they went

475
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:22,719
Speaker 2: to the Capitol Capital. There was a lot of meetings

476
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 2: going on there. Eric Trump said that Bitcoin's going to

477
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: be a lot higher.

478
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 1: It's kind of like this great speech like that. Inside

479
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: it was a great speech.

480
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: Right, But what I picked up from having lots of

481
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,439
Speaker 2: back room conversations there is that all of these big players,

482
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 2: the chikhs and sovereigns, wealth funds, etc. Over there are

483
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 2: already positioning for the space race, the nuclear arms race,

484
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 2: if you will, But they don't want to front run

485
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: the US. They're afraid that Trump might do like a

486
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: threat like he did with bricks, like hey, if you

487
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: move away from the dollar, one hundred percent tariffs on you.

488
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: So they're almost doing it like in this coordinated fashion

489
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: where Hey, we're all ready, but let's let Trump announce

490
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,880
Speaker 2: it first and then we all come out at one time. Yeah,

491
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 2: And so what I was saying is, I think, even

492
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: though maybe the market is disappointed that we don't get

493
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 2: the two hundred thousand a year purchase, the green light

494
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 2: to the world to move I think is pretty big.

495
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: I tend to agree with that. So I missed all

496
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:25,920
Speaker 1: the rumors and maybe confirmation other than just somebody calling

497
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: me on my way into the studio. But I guess

498
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: there's firmish rumors of UA having already acquired three or

499
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 1: four hundred thousand coins. Did you see anything on this,

500
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: I've seen the chatter.

501
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 2: I don't know, nothing close to confirmed or Okay, I've

502
00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: known it. Okay, it's all over.

503
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: So something like that would make sense. I think you're

504
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 1: also seeing, you know, like there's just so much being

505
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 1: added to the bitcoin mining space. You saw the Chinese

506
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 1: car maker this morning, I announce that they bought fifty

507
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,919
Speaker 1: x a hash worth of machines from bitmin Yeah, like

508
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: they'd vaulted to be the third biggest mining company in

509
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: the world today, haven't and nobody knew about it before.

510
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 2: Basically, let's jump back to the SBR though for a minute,

511
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 2: because I want to go back to the dollar. So

512
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 2: I think that bitcoin does not kill the dollar. Bitcoin

513
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: pulls value from other store value assets. So it'll pull

514
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 2: money from gold, it'll pull money from real estate, stocks, bonds,

515
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: et cetera. It doesn't have The dollar doesn't have to

516
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 2: die for bitcoin to succeed. The US already stockpiles gold.

517
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 2: If they announce that they're buying more gold, they're resuming

518
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 2: gold buying. That doesn't sink the dollar.

519
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 1: I had. I had, so I agree with you on

520
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: the dollar point. I also had another epiphany, which I'm

521
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,479
Speaker 1: sure I probably read somewhere, but I thought I had

522
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: an original idea a couple of weeks ago. Uh so,

523
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: you know, we draw this box of the one quadrillion

524
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 1: of store value assets. We always in the bitcoin space

525
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: we talk about having low time preference versus high time preference.

526
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: Bitcoin doesn't need to steal from any of the other

527
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: buckets of store of value to twenty million dollars a coin.

528
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 1: It can just expand the TAM for store of value.

529
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly what happens.

530
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so it will probably steal, it'll steal share

531
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: from these, but it doesn't actually even require people to

532
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: sell real estate. It just requires people to choose to

533
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 1: store their incremental value in bitcoin. Yeah, so it really

534
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: like you don't even need to compete at all. Yeah,

535
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: Like we add more profits every year as humans, we

536
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: grow GDP three or four percent for eight billion people,

537
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: all of that can be stored in bitcoin incrementally, and

538
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: so it probably will relatively demonetize gold, and it'll suck

539
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: some of the premium away from real estate and everything.

540
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: But it's not even required to have bitcoin become massive.

541
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 2: Gold will continue to grow, but bitcoin grows much faster faster.

542
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 2: So the talk I gave it Bitcoin Mien, as I

543
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: told you earlier, was mapping out the fifty year cycle,

544
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 2: and at each state that chart of the store value assets,

545
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 2: I showed where I think that goes to, and I

546
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 2: mapped out where I think all the store value assets go.

547
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 2: So a lot of people don't realize that. Of course,

548
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 2: gold goes up with all the store value assets do.

549
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 2: And so I used historical numbers as well as like

550
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 2: CBO projections because they project through twenty fifty four, so

551
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: for the next thirty years, So I just projected deficit

552
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 2: and debt limits that they've given us with historical numbers,

553
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: and we project out where real estate will be, where

554
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 2: gold will be, where bonds will be, where equities will be,

555
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 2: based off of those growth races that they've told us.

556
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 2: And so we're up to like eight point six quadrillion

557
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 2: eight point six quadrillion in store value assets. And so

558
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: if bitcoin gets twenty percent of that of eight point

559
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 2: six squad you know, I think by twenty fifty, bitcoin

560
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 2: is the second largest asset class behind real estate because

561
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 2: it's outpaced the growth of all those other ones. But

562
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 2: gold is whatever, forty trillion two. But yeah, it doesn't

563
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 2: mean the dollar has to die. So that's why I

564
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 2: think I just don't see how that signals the end

565
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 2: of the dollar. But back to Jerome Powell's state, and

566
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 2: to the point that you referenced. He said that the

567
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,199
Speaker 2: FED can't own bitcoin because of the law. But the

568
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 2: FED doesn't own gold either, right, So I don't think

569
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 2: anybody's expecting the FED to buy bitcoin, right, it was right?

570
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: The US Treasury makes sense the reserve. We've also seen

571
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 2: that the FED can change the rules and buy other

572
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 2: assets anytime they want as well. You know, I would

573
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 2: also just say back to this competition of Wall Street

574
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 2: and funds being dragged in, as you said, kicking and screaming,

575
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: and then other governments and maybe maybe they are waiting

576
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 2: for the US to sort of move first and everyone moving.

577
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 2: Of course, Russia's announced things about Russia changed their regulations

578
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 2: around taxes on bitcoin mining, which I thought was pretty important. Like,

579
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: they're only doing that if there's something going on there.

580
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: So those countries maybe are trying to preempt them. But

581
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 2: we've seen in history, right, like the space race and

582
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: the nuclear arms race. We saw when the whole world

583
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 2: was still gold standard in the eighteen hundred, So it's

584
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 2: like we've seen these four it's not ancient history. When

585
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: nations start competing, things start moving pretty fast.

586
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm trying to think. What was another really interesting

587
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: meeting out there. I went and met with a generally

588
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: commodities focused investment bank. So it's kind of a boutique

589
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: that focuses on you know, gold miners and oil reserves

590
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: and things like that, and they're going deep on bitcoin

591
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 1: because their LPs and their clients are going deep on bitcoin. Yeah,

592
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,240
Speaker 1: and so they're you know, kind of talking to us

593
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: and seeing if this is a vertical that they should

594
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: create and do they need to assign bankers? Do they

595
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: need to hire new bankers to do this thing? And yeah,

596
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 1: you know that's that's just a normal everyday conversation on

597
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: the street.

598
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 2: It's amazing. You would think just like the car company

599
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,239
Speaker 2: in China. I mean, any of these companies that are

600
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,479
Speaker 2: dealing in commodities, it's an energy intensive industry, so they

601
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 2: have lots of energy, Like, why wouldn't they offset some

602
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: of those costs. So it seems like, again as we

603
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 2: said earlier, like bitcoin is just going to expand rapidly

604
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 2: into every little area that we didn't even plan for. Yeah,

605
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: we got a party to go, do we do? We do?

606
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 2: Is there anything else that you want to close it

607
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 2: out with or leave us with?

608
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: Oh? Yeah, we we just so what day is it?

609
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: It's Wednesday?

610
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: Is it the eighteenth nineteen?

611
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: Yeah?

612
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 2: Eighteen eighteenth?

613
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: Okay, Yeah, this morning we just announced the the Swan

614
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: Bitcoin Rewards credit card. It's just a Bitcoin rets rewards

615
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: credit card. Instead of gaming miles or cash back, you

616
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: get bitcoin back, Okay, So it'll be popular among the bitcoiners.

617
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: It functions just like the Block five card that existed

618
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 1: for six months before.

619
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 2: They fill out a credit card, credit application, get an

620
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:41,200
Speaker 2: actual credit card, get a credit limit.

621
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 1: It's a MasterCard. Should buy a big bank, the whole deal.

622
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: But can you say what percentage yet?

623
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 1: No? I can't. Yeah, we're working out the details, but yeah,

624
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 1: it should be pretty exciting. But the wait list is

625
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 1: open swan dot com slash card.

626
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 2: Nice. We'll put a link to that down below.

627
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 1: Okay, cool, Thanks Corey, thanks for having me on