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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 3: Hello, Welcome the Action Work podcast UFC Betting Preview. I'm

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Speaker 3: Sean Gorilla, joined today by Billy Ward to help you

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Speaker 3: break down the fights on this weekend's card and give

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Speaker 3: you our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props and more.

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Speaker 3: And if you'd like to tell some of the bets

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Speaker 3: that we discuss on today's show, you can find the

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Speaker 3: quick slip links both in the podcasts and the video description,

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Speaker 3: or visit actionework dot com slash bet now. Recording a

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Speaker 3: little bit earlier this week Thursday night instead of Friday morning.

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Speaker 4: The card.

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Speaker 3: The card that we're mostly going to discuss your starts

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Speaker 3: on Saturday in Shange High at three am Eastern Time,

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Speaker 3: so we wanted to get this up early for that reason.

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Speaker 3: But also there's a road to UFC card on Friday

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Speaker 3: morning beginning at six am Eastern Time that finishes off

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Speaker 3: with two UFC bouts, which we'll discuss later in this episode,

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Speaker 3: in addition to some bets that Billy likes on the

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Speaker 3: Road to UFC card individually. We're going to get to

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Speaker 3: that though at the end of the show. If you're

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Speaker 3: watching on YouTube, those fights probably will have started by

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Speaker 3: the time that you're seeing this. They may not have

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Speaker 3: started yet, like the fights later in the card may

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Speaker 3: not have started yet by the time you're getting to it.

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Speaker 3: But if you're on the podcast, you can find those

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Speaker 3: at the end of the show for Friday. But in

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Speaker 3: terms of Saturday's card, we're going to take this show

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Speaker 3: in typical fashion. Twelve fight card from Shanghai early star time.

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Speaker 3: As I said, three am Eastern time, so make sure

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Speaker 3: to get those bets in early. Would have loved to

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Speaker 3: have woken up late, but I actually show value up

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Speaker 3: and down this card. Main event actually is the one

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Speaker 3: fight I might be passing on between Menyang Jang at

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Speaker 3: minus three forty and Johnny Walker at plus two to

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Speaker 3: seventy light heavyweight bout that is minus sixteen hundred or

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Speaker 3: higher to end inside the distance, plus eight twenty to

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Speaker 3: go to a decision. The under one and a half

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Speaker 3: rounds is choosed all the way up near minus three hundred.

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Speaker 3: Johnny Walker actually had a five round main event with

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Speaker 3: Thiago Santos that was minus eight fifty to end inside

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Speaker 3: the distance, and he decided to come out like a

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Speaker 3: distance kickboxer. It's the most patient he's ever fought in

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Speaker 3: his career. They won a very tepid twenty five minutes

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Speaker 3: and Johnny Walker won a low volume decision, but he

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Speaker 3: has been knocked out three times since that fight. It's

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Speaker 3: been knocked out four times at the UFC and six

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Speaker 3: times in his career, including that knockout regionally where he

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Speaker 3: was essentially knocked out four times in the span of

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Speaker 3: thirty seconds. Jeng, though not durable necessarily either, he was

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Speaker 3: knockout twice regionally. He's been submitted regionally. He got wobbled

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Speaker 3: by Brinson Roberro in his fight, and he even came

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Speaker 3: into the UFC as a plus four fifty underdog, beating

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Speaker 3: two ko tokos on road to UFC. So Xang was

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Speaker 3: never that highly rated by the market. We really haven't

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Speaker 3: seen him in many extended fights. Walker is the taller

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Speaker 3: and longer athlete for just taller seven inch reach advantage.

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Speaker 3: Despite extends, I think Johnny Walker is worth considering as

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Speaker 3: a live bet after round one. Certainly after round two,

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Speaker 3: I think he probably has better twenty five minute cardio

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Speaker 3: is obviously more tested across twenty five minutes, but I

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Speaker 3: think if in any extended fight, Walker may be a

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Speaker 3: more competent fighter as well. The other two ways to

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Speaker 3: bet this that I think are viable jang Ko one

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Speaker 3: minus one eighteen. There's probably the square is bet of

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Speaker 3: the week, but I think it's certainly worth betting into

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Speaker 3: considering Walker's shin at this point of his career. I

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Speaker 3: project value on jang by ko. I think if it comes,

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Speaker 3: it comes early. The other angle, and I think the

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Speaker 3: way Johnny Walker can win this fight, and I'd imagine

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Speaker 3: you might agree with this, Billy Walker by sub at

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Speaker 3: twelve to one. The way he scrambled with Ian Koudel

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Speaker 3: was very surprising and very impressive. We don't see Johnny

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Speaker 3: Walker scramble much, but he does have a relatively well

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Speaker 3: rounded skill set. I mean, his brother, Walter Walker is

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Speaker 3: certainly a grappler brother half brother. I think Walker, if

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Speaker 3: he grapples here, he could potentially find a submission. So

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Speaker 3: Walker sub twelve to one jang Ko one Walker live.

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Speaker 3: I think my favorite way to play this fight. So, Billy,

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Speaker 3: any bets that you actually ended up picking for this one?

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Speaker 3: And then what do you think about the live aang

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Speaker 3: ole Walker?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, as of now, at least it's a pass for me.

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Speaker 1: I think this is kind of a dogger pass spot.

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Speaker 1: We don't know that Ming Yang Jang is actually good

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Speaker 1: just because of the matchups they've given him. Like I

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Speaker 1: believe it was Azzi Diaz was his first official UFC fight.

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Speaker 1: That guy's owing something. Oh no, it's Roberto first, and

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Speaker 1: then Diaz Ozzi Diaz is like oh and three in

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Speaker 1: the UFC across two stands or oh and one? That

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Speaker 1: can Oh no, he did get a win, that's right.

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Speaker 1: He'd bet Jordan Santos regardless, not a high level opponent.

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Speaker 1: And then you know, the corpse of Anthony Smith doesn't

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Speaker 1: really count at that point in his career either. Johnny

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Speaker 1: Walker can be good if he doesn't just explode when

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Speaker 1: you look at him too hard, but that's usually what

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Speaker 1: happens later in his career. I'm glad you mentioned his brother.

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Speaker 1: I was about to say, like, what if he actually

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Speaker 1: learned to heal hook from Walter and you know, gets

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Speaker 1: knocked down and then starts rolling for legs.

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Speaker 5: It could happen.

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Speaker 1: Love the sub angle will probably have like a point

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Speaker 1: one unit on that just for fun, but mostly gonna pass.

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Speaker 1: I think if you have to take a money line side,

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Speaker 1: it's got to be Walker at these odds. He's fought

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Speaker 1: like almost exclusively championship level guys for a while. Now

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Speaker 1: you know two of his last three fights were against

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Speaker 1: malcolmat Aklieth. This is a huge step down for him,

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Speaker 1: but he might just be totally physically broken.

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Speaker 4: So hard one to bet, Yeah, very difficult fight to bat.

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Speaker 3: Normally, I always find at least one way I want

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Speaker 3: to bet on these fights. The fight that is minus

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Speaker 3: two ninety to the under one and a half. There's

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Speaker 3: only so much that you can do with it in

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Speaker 3: terms of pure value. I think Walker sub is the

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Speaker 3: way to go. Like Billy said, I'll probably put a

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Speaker 3: twentieth of a unit a tenth of a unit on

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Speaker 3: it just for kicks, just to have something on the

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Speaker 3: main event, and I do think there is legitimate value

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Speaker 3: on that prop. Walker Live though, probably my favorite way

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Speaker 3: to play it. If I'm picking the fight straight, if

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Speaker 3: you gave me a free bet at even odds on

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Speaker 3: every single thing on the board, it's jang Ko one.

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Speaker 4: I think that is my pick for the fight. All

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Speaker 4: of that's.

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Speaker 1: Zeiding knockout is minus two eighty, which is crazy for

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Speaker 1: a single method of victory prop and like not that

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Speaker 1: far off his money line too, So yeah, just a

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Speaker 1: wild some wild line.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I make it minus two sixty. I saw a

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Speaker 3: minus two forty out there, So you know, if you

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Speaker 3: want to same game parlay xang and under one and

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Speaker 3: a half and knockout, you could probably get I don't know,

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Speaker 3: minus one fifty instead of laying minus two forty. But

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Speaker 3: then you're taking away the rest of the fight and

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Speaker 3: the knockout potential there. There's really just no good way

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Speaker 3: to bet on this fight is the long and short

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Speaker 3: of it. I think both of us, though, have much

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Speaker 3: more conviction on our fightday, the night and the covide

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Speaker 3: of event. A five round main event or comine event

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Speaker 3: between al Jamain and Sterling and Brian or Tega. This

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Speaker 3: is the third fight for al Jo at one five.

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Speaker 3: You'll have this breakdown up on Action or dot com.

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Speaker 3: So I'm gonna turn it over to you.

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Speaker 4: Especially because I really like Alja was a parlay piece

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Speaker 4: this weekend.

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Speaker 3: I kind of like his decision prop, but in a

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Speaker 3: five round fight, I feel like we're take up maybe

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Speaker 3: breaks somewhere down the stretch. You and I were discussing

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Speaker 3: this earlier in the week, and I'm sitting there wondering

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Speaker 3: how to play this fight, you know, without laying minus

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Speaker 3: three hundred, and sure enough, Billy drops the best thought

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Speaker 3: I've had all week into the sheet. So Billy, take

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Speaker 3: it away with your bet on this fight, and I'll

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Speaker 3: fill in the gaps where I think you missed.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. Obviously, we talked about it,

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Speaker 1: so we kind of came to this collectively. But if

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Speaker 1: this were a three round fight, Aljaman sterling by decision,

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Speaker 1: great odds. We've just seen so many bad signs from

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Speaker 1: more takea up between the injury in cage. He got

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Speaker 1: dropped by Diego Lopez in his last fight, miraculous recovery

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Speaker 1: because Lopez tried to grapple with him and not strike

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Speaker 1: from the top. I think Algeramayn has the fight IQ

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Speaker 1: where if he does manage to hurt him, he's gonna

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Speaker 1: lay on the damage and not try to play a

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Speaker 1: submission game against Brian Ortega. I think Diego Lopez even

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Speaker 1: came out and said at one point that he wanted

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Speaker 1: to submit him, like to prove a point, because that's

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Speaker 1: the kind of guy Diego Lopez is Sterling doesn't care

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Speaker 1: about that. He's just gonna try to win the fight,

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Speaker 1: and the shortest path to that if he hurts him

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Speaker 1: is to keep striking. But you know, Aljermaine Sterling not

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Speaker 1: a great finisher. And from a technical standpoint, what I

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Speaker 1: noticed is Ortega has really good submissions, but he has

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Speaker 1: really good submissions off his back. They're guillotines and triangles

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Speaker 1: are his two best moves. Both of those you do

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Speaker 1: after you get taken down. Sterling's never been submitted. He's

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Speaker 1: never been submitted in pro grappling, and he's faced not

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Speaker 1: just MMA guys, he's faced strict grapplers who were unable

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Speaker 1: to submit him. I don't think Ortega has much of

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Speaker 1: a shot to submit Sterling.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 1: What I think is gonna happen is Brian Ortega is

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Speaker 1: going to accept the takedown. He's gonna look for a guillotine,

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Speaker 1: look for a troangle, whatever's going to be a guard

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Speaker 1: pass for Aljeramin Sterling, who's going to spend the rest

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Speaker 1: of the round scrambling around on top of him doing

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Speaker 1: his funk faster stuff. If Ortega breaks physically at some

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Speaker 1: point in there, we get a finish. If he doesn't

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Speaker 1: pretty dominant win for Sterling on the judges' scorecards, which

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Speaker 1: is why I'm going to Aljermin and Sterling minus five

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Speaker 1: and a half. This one's only minus one ten. We

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Speaker 1: talked about it, you know, a few months ago that

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Speaker 1: it seemed like they were juicing those better because it

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Speaker 1: is easier to cover the five and a half in

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Speaker 1: a five round fight than it is to cover the

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Speaker 1: three and a half in a three round fight. This

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Speaker 1: just feels like a miss to me. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: you're gonna say he's a minus three ten favorite, he's.

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Speaker 5: Only got to win.

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Speaker 1: He can drop around and still cover the point spread

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Speaker 1: in a five round fight, unlike the three and a

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Speaker 1: half in a three round fight. I don't see him

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Speaker 1: dropping more than one because if he tries to strike

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Speaker 1: with Ortega and it doesn't work, the next round, he's

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Speaker 1: shooting right away and not bothering with that. Ortega does

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Speaker 1: not have the wrestling to stop that, nor does he

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Speaker 1: really have a desire to stop takedown. So pretty sure

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Speaker 1: he covers that. Wasn't sure if I wanted to play

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Speaker 1: the finish or play the decision. But when we're getting

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Speaker 1: effectively even money on him to win at least four

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Speaker 1: rounds or even four rounds on one scorecard, or two

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Speaker 1: scorecards three rounds on another, something like that. There's just

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Speaker 1: a lot of outs for Algo here, so that's I'm

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Speaker 1: playing it.

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Speaker 3: This is my favorite point spread bet in a while.

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Speaker 3: I absolutely love this. I'm pretty limited in terms of

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Speaker 3: my ability to bet at the book that offers them.

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Speaker 3: I will find a way to get more money down

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Speaker 3: where it's available, But yeah, I really like this point

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Speaker 3: spread for Aldough. He's just such a better minute winner

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Speaker 3: in this fight outlands opponents at distance by.

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Speaker 4: Two and a half strikes per minute.

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Speaker 3: Or Tega gets outlanded by two point seven strikes permitted,

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Speaker 3: and that's throwaway to Max Holloway fight from that sample too,

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Speaker 3: he's still getting outlanded by more than two strikes permitted

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Speaker 3: at distance on the ground where the takedown averages Aljo

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Speaker 3: averaging about five per five minutes at distance nearly six

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Speaker 3: or tag a one point seven. Grappling control rates sixty

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Speaker 3: four percent for al Jo, forty eight percent for or Tago.

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Speaker 3: So Aljo just the better control grappler, the better minute winner.

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Speaker 3: On the feet, I think he chips away ultimately, And

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Speaker 3: what really concerns me about the decision prop is in

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Speaker 3: terms of Ortega's recent the injury in the cage. I

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Speaker 3: was at his fight against Sierra Rodriguez where he dissocated

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Speaker 3: his shoulder, you know, on bottom trying to set something up.

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Speaker 3: He sprained both of his ankles walking to the cage

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Speaker 3: against Yayer the second time they fought, he sprained it

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Speaker 3: like jumping up and down during the intros, rolled it

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Speaker 3: and still ended up winning the fight. But yeah, Yeahyer

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Speaker 3: is just pretty much broken or or Tega pretty much

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Speaker 3: broken at this point of his career Physically, I would

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Speaker 3: expect Alige to dominate minutes, and I think he can

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Speaker 3: potentially win via injury TKO or some sort of just

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Speaker 3: like top control, like scramble. Something goes weird and he

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Speaker 3: catches Ortega in a scramble. But the things to be

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Speaker 3: mindful of here and the reasons why you could justify

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Speaker 3: betting Ortega by submission, I think there's eight to one,

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Speaker 3: nine to one if you do like the Ortega side.

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Speaker 3: Al Joe when he goes for takedown does stick his

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Speaker 3: head exactly where a fighter would lock up a guillotine

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Speaker 3: from that is the blast doubles that he hits. That's

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Speaker 3: exactly where he puts this head. And also if he's

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Speaker 3: going to stay on top, he needs to be mindful

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Speaker 3: of that triangle coming over if he's going to sit guard.

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Speaker 3: So one of the best grapplers in the sport, I

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Speaker 3: don't expect him to do something dumb and make a fight.

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Speaker 4: I key mistake.

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Speaker 3: But if you're a gun to bet Ourtega, I think

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Speaker 3: there is value justifiably on his subprop. Otherwise it is

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Speaker 3: al Joe point spread for me and for Billy as well.

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Speaker 3: Before we get to our favorite underdogs on the cart,

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Speaker 3: it's going to remind every body of the football season

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Speaker 3: is here and we've got some huge improvements and updates

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Speaker 3: coming to the award winning action of our Gap. You're

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00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:39,240
Speaker 3: very excited to discuss in the weeks ahead. But to

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00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:40,440
Speaker 3: get the most out of the app, just the need

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00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,040
Speaker 3: to be an Action Pro subscriber. It's only the Action Pro.

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00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 3: You get real time picklers for me and the entire

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Speaker 3: Action Network team of experts. Plus you can get our

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Speaker 3: access our pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and our

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Speaker 3: predictive analytics team, plus a ton of my other benefits

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Speaker 3: and right now at an Action at work podcast listeners

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00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,440
Speaker 3: code pod twenty for twenty dollars off the price of

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Speaker 3: action pro. Let's move it our favorite underdog section. I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna start with your fight because I'm gonna need a

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Speaker 3: minute to clear the air before we get to mine.

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Speaker 3: Let's go with the fact that I like actually quite

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Speaker 3: a bit this weekend, and technically we'd be head to

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Speaker 3: head here if I get a little bit of a

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Speaker 3: better number on sumid ergy. So people, go ahead and

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Speaker 3: bet Kevin Borjas. Billy, go ahead and bet Borgeous as

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Speaker 3: much as you want. I want to see if I

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Speaker 3: can get a better price on sumid ergy on fight day.

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Speaker 2: Two.

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Speaker 3: Pretty good nicknames to bet n Eagle and the black Rooster,

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Speaker 3: right you told me Gio Negro for Kevin Borjas. So

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Speaker 3: a couple of fun animal nicknames here to bet Neagle.

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Speaker 3: Three each is taller forage treach advantage. I think his

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Speaker 3: wrestling has gotten a little better, so Billy, in terms

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00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,520
Speaker 3: of the path for borhas here do you see him

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Speaker 3: landing more power in the pocket and winning on the feet,

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Speaker 3: or do you think he mixes in some grap playing

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Speaker 3: and mixes the martial arts together and is able to

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Speaker 3: win that way, not at all.

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Speaker 1: On the grappling, My big breakdown here is that Kevin

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00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,160
Speaker 1: Borjas is much better when he is not forced to grapple.

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Speaker 1: Sumaderji definitely has gotten better grappling to an extent. He

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00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 1: got taken down six times by Mitchroposo in his last fight,

304
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:18,920
Speaker 1: which is not a great look, not a ton of

305
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,000
Speaker 1: control time, which is encouraging that he was able to

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00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,640
Speaker 1: get back up. But that was a split decision win

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Speaker 1: over Mitchroposo, and that would have been the four straight

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Speaker 1: loss for Sumadergy if the judges saw it the other way.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying it was a bad decision by the way.

310
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Speaker 1: I think he probably deserved it, but you know, he

311
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,960
Speaker 1: was a hairs breadth the way from four straight losses

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00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,880
Speaker 1: of being cut from the UFC. Kevin Borjas just came

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Speaker 1: back big win over Ronaldo lazy boy. Rodriguez dropped him,

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Speaker 1: I believe in the first round, might have been the

315
00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 1: second round in there, very impressive performance. He just struggles

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00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:51,200
Speaker 1: when guys force him to worry about the wrestling, and

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00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 1: he doesn't have to do that here. But it's mainly

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Speaker 1: a system play for me with the split decision, just

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Speaker 1: one of those things. I had it in my luck

320
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Speaker 1: ratings at one point it was going the other way

321
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Speaker 1: where I thought it was going to continue to move

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Speaker 1: closer to even money. It's actually blown out a little

323
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Speaker 1: bit since I bet it, so I got the worst

324
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Speaker 1: of the number, I am helping drive that line value

325
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Speaker 1: for Sean to get the better number. I'msum deergy, but

326
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Speaker 1: I'm okay with it at plus money. Effectively, I think

327
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Speaker 1: just going to be a striking match between two guys

328
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Speaker 1: who can both hit and have both been dropped. So

329
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Speaker 1: if we're flipping a coin on who falls first, I'm

330
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Speaker 1: kind of okay with that.

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Speaker 3: Best of luck to you betting against a Chinese fighter

332
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Speaker 3: in China. I don't think you're going to get many

333
00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 3: fair scorecards for the non hometown fighters this weekend. I

334
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,200
Speaker 3: think you can lean into the home fighters just a

335
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,600
Speaker 3: little bit more. I do like Sudo and the improvements

336
00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 3: he's made. He actually, i think, is a guy who's

337
00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:43,240
Speaker 3: getting over knee injuries.

338
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,240
Speaker 4: He was wearing those nies those leg sleeves.

339
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Speaker 3: Previously really struggling in the grappling the takedown defenses, he said,

340
00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:52,760
Speaker 3: looked a lot better. In his last fight against Reposo.

341
00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,160
Speaker 3: He denied thirteen of the nineteen attempts. He did get

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00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,720
Speaker 3: taken down six times, but only held down for about

343
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,000
Speaker 3: four minutes in that fight. Now back to a sh

344
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,520
Speaker 3: striking fight here, isn't going to have to worry about

345
00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 3: getting defensively grappled either. So I think both of us

346
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 3: really like the fact that our respective fighter does not

347
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 3: have to grapple or worry about it.

348
00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 4: But Sue, three inches taller, four inch reach.

349
00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:16,600
Speaker 3: Advantage repose or not Reposo Boras should have the power advantage.

350
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 3: So it could be judges weighing volume against power and

351
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,560
Speaker 3: certainly get the argument for Borjas, but not necessarily in

352
00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 3: this region of the world. And the apex one hundred

353
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 3: percent maybe not here on Saturday, but yeah, if I

354
00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 3: can get minus one seventy, I'd be interested in. Sue,

355
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,760
Speaker 3: what's your price target that you like borhas down to.

356
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: So I got him at I believe one thirty eight.

357
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,240
Speaker 1: Earlier in the week, I'm saying plus one fifty two.

358
00:16:41,360 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 1: Now I think plus anywhere this side of plus one thirty.

359
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 1: I'm basically viewing this as a coin flip with two

360
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,560
Speaker 1: guys gonna throw hard see who falls. So if I

361
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,160
Speaker 1: can get plus one thirty on one side of that,

362
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:51,000
Speaker 1: I'm happy with it.

363
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:54,960
Speaker 3: My favorite underdog on this card is the biggest underdog

364
00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:57,680
Speaker 3: on the card. That is Weston Wilson at plus eight

365
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 3: hundred or higher against the easy He's the taller man,

366
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:03,560
Speaker 3: he's the longer man, porches taller too, in.

367
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:04,440
Speaker 4: For each advantage.

368
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 3: He's a bigger underdog against Iza than he was against

369
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 3: Joe Anderson, Brito or Jean Silva, which seems like not

370
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,119
Speaker 3: something that should happen. Granted, he did lose both of

371
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,000
Speaker 3: those fights, but then he came back and beat Jerick

372
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 3: Aseragi as a near three to one dog, and I

373
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 3: bet him in that fight. I thought that line was wrong.

374
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:26,679
Speaker 3: I think this line is wrong too, just because Yeza,

375
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:31,720
Speaker 3: relatively inexperienced, has a loss in his UFC debut against

376
00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 3: Gabriel Stantos. He came into that fight as a plus

377
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,199
Speaker 3: two to ten dog, went to decision. Wilson has a

378
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 3: bad chin, but if Yuza does not finish him, I

379
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 3: think this is a very competitive fight. I think there's

380
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 3: value on the GTD prop. I think there's value on

381
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 3: Wilson by decision, value on Wilson's money line as well.

382
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:51,480
Speaker 4: I feel like the market here too.

383
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,679
Speaker 3: The odds were a little strange in terms of the

384
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 3: skew for the knockout and submission splits for Iza as well,

385
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,959
Speaker 3: but ultimately the market saying Wilson wins this fight one

386
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 3: out of ten times, I think it's closer to two

387
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,719
Speaker 3: out of ten times. The GTD odds are closer to

388
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,760
Speaker 3: fifteen percent. I think that should be closer to twenty percent.

389
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 3: So either Wilson on the money line or the fight

390
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 3: goes to decision at five to one or better, you

391
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 3: can get eight to one and six to one, respectively.

392
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,640
Speaker 3: Not interested in the over one and a half at

393
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 3: like plus one point thirty. If it gets over one

394
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 3: and a half, I think it has a pretty good

395
00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 3: shot of going all fifteen minutes. So Billy, either Wilson

396
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:31,640
Speaker 3: money line or fight to go to decision or any

397
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 3: other bet on this fight that I should probably just

398
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 3: stay away from interest you at all.

399
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 1: No, you mentioned it to me, you know, before we

400
00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: got on the air, and I looked into it a

401
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,359
Speaker 1: little bit. The thing I really like is Wilson is

402
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 1: like just a fairly good fighter with a terrible chin.

403
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,199
Speaker 1: Much in some way it's like Chnie Walker in the

404
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,639
Speaker 1: main event, usual that as not a big, scary, powerful

405
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 1: knockout guy like the Mountain Tiger is. Knockout is his

406
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 1: least frequent winning method. He hasn't won a fight by

407
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 1: knockout since twenty nineteen, and then even on the road

408
00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 1: to the UFC, didn't drop anyone, didn't really come close

409
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,879
Speaker 1: to finishing anyone by strikes. It's almost it's hard to

410
00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 1: say that this one should be longer, certainly than you know,

411
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 1: Gene Silva versus West and Wilson. But even in some

412
00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,119
Speaker 1: ways it matches the main event in terms of the

413
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 1: dynamics here where one guy is probably more skilled with

414
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:21,320
Speaker 1: no chin. But you're getting like four times the price

415
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 1: that you would be on Johnny Walker. So I'm with you.

416
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,120
Speaker 1: I talked myself into it for somewhat different reasons than

417
00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:27,480
Speaker 1: you did.

418
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 5: And again, you can't.

419
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 1: You can't be that wrong on a ten to one

420
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 1: underdog or nine to one underdog. So why not, you know,

421
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,400
Speaker 1: throw a couple bucks on there. If you hit it

422
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 1: pays off the rest of the rest of your fun.

423
00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeza and rod TFC three decisions too by split,

424
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 3: so it's not like he was necessarily finishing lower level

425
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 3: competition either. Still needs to prove himself against this level.

426
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 3: Not that Western Wilson necessarily is UFC level, but I

427
00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:53,520
Speaker 3: think he can give Yzah competitive fight.

428
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 5: I got the one more underdog.

429
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 3: I missed that you must have added to the sheet,

430
00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:58,400
Speaker 3: Lea because I didn't have it written down here.

431
00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 4: To go ahead and tell me which fight and get up.

432
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,240
Speaker 1: By bet that is a fighter I also hate to

433
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 1: bet on, but that is Austin bang Hubbard at two

434
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: to one or plus two ten. I'm saying this is

435
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 1: a pretty straightforward one with the split decision dynamics. Did

436
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,119
Speaker 1: not get to it in my luck ratings. Looking for

437
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,439
Speaker 1: my notes now on exactly how this shook off. But

438
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,159
Speaker 1: he's coming off two straight close split decision losses, and

439
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 1: I believe he can kind of stall slash grapple slash

440
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,760
Speaker 1: make it close. I'm feeling less good about it now

441
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,119
Speaker 1: after you pointed out some of the possible judging dynamics

442
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 1: we have on this card, which should of course favor

443
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:34,439
Speaker 1: the local fighters. Austin Hubbard being not the local fighter,

444
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,479
Speaker 1: but he's fighting wrong ju who is also coming off

445
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 1: a split decision win, a unanimous decision win of his

446
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 1: own over Cody Steele.

447
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 5: Cody Steele just took.

448
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 1: A terrible game plan there and didn't really try to

449
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,920
Speaker 1: grapple himuntil he was already getting beaten up. Had some

450
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 1: success when he did. That was fight of the night.

451
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 1: It was fight of the night because Cody Steele, who's

452
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 1: a world class grappler, just slugged it out with him.

453
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 1: Before that he got stopped by Chris Taco Padilla in

454
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 1: his UFC debut. Don't think he's that good. I don't

455
00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 1: think Austin Hubbard is that great either, But I think

456
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 1: with the right game plan here and by learning from

457
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 1: the mistakes of Cody Steele, he can do a pretty

458
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 1: boring stall here. It's also hugely favored to go to

459
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 1: a decision, which is another one of those we like

460
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: the underdogs and fights like that, although again I like

461
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,680
Speaker 1: it less when Tron pointed out that the judging might

462
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 1: work against us when betting on the non Asian fighters

463
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 1: on this event, So.

464
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 3: I actually like this fight. To finish, I make the

465
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 3: finish line about plus one fifty. They're giving you plus

466
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 3: one eighty. I'm probably betting the ITD line, but I

467
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 3: prefer wrong Ju.

468
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 4: As the finisher.

469
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 3: If somebody is going to finish the fight, wrongs you

470
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 3: by ko, I make about plus three to fifty. You

471
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 3: can bet plus four sixty. Would you agree that Rongzu

472
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 3: is the likelier finisher of the two. A Hubbard likely

473
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:46,360
Speaker 3: to win by decision?

474
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, one hundred percent. I mean Austin Hubbard is

475
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 1: a decision machine kind of for better if for we're

476
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 1: it's got triangle choke bey Kurt Hollabah, But like both

477
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: of his fights on The Ultimate Fighter this time around

478
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 1: were decisions, a lot of decisions before that has some

479
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 1: finish wins, you know, pre UFC in his career, but

480
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: primarily in the UFC has been a kind of boring,

481
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 1: slow the pace down, try to take you down, and

482
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: don't do much with it guy, which is objectively the

483
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: correct way to fight someone like wrong Jo.

484
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 3: Let's sprip through some fights from a prop perspective before

485
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 3: we get to our best bets later on in the show,

486
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: and then, as I said, we'll finish up with some

487
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 3: fights on the road to UFC card, taking place on

488
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:29,199
Speaker 3: Friday morning. The Neurology against Crosby fight walterweight division. Not

489
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 3: going to try to pronounce Neurology's first name, not even

490
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 3: going to go there whatsoever. But I think this should

491
00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 3: be a layup for him, and he's three inches dollar

492
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 3: has a five in freakch advantage. He is eleven years younger,

493
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 3: and he was supposed to compete on the road to

494
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 3: the UFC card. The UFC actually pulled him up for

495
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 3: this fight against Crosby in place of song Kanam ended

496
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 3: up dropping off the card. Seems like a fairly binary

497
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 3: striker versus grappler matchup. What interests me about that is

498
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 3: his subprop is plus six hundred and is ko prop

499
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 3: is like my minus one seventy. I think favorite by

500
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 3: sub round two plus four twenty, round three, twelve to one.

501
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 3: All interesting ways of playing him instead of laying minus

502
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: four thirty and then the over one and a half

503
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 3: at plus one p fifty interests me as well in

504
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 3: the event that Crosby is able to keep things more competitive,

505
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 3: but he does not have more than seven and a

506
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,280
Speaker 3: half minutes of gas, hence the late round stabs on

507
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 3: the favorite. In addition to the submission prop. Billy, were

508
00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 3: you able to break this one down and find anything

509
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,439
Speaker 3: that you liked in this matchup?

510
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 1: Didn't watch any tape on this one. Kind of hard

511
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 1: to find any on Neurogi coming into this one since

512
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: he didn't go through the road to the UFC. Not

513
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 1: high on Keifer Crosby though, So I do like the

514
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,199
Speaker 1: angles that you have on that, and you're right. I

515
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,800
Speaker 1: think if we wait a little bit, you can probably

516
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 1: just throw Nouergie into an SGP with that over one

517
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 1: and a half, because that's probably the way that dynamic

518
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 1: works is that it favors him if it does go long.

519
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, significantly younger is instead eleven year age gap between

520
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 3: the two late round stabs and then the UH. I

521
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 3: think the fact that he's going to grapple is super

522
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 3: viable for that subprop. And the pricing should be far

523
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: closer to plus three hundred for either instead of minus

524
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 3: one sixteen plus six hundred. I think they should be

525
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: much tighter. So definitely going to take a look at

526
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:20,680
Speaker 3: that in addition to the over one and a half.

527
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: If he subs them early, you still profit. He subs

528
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 3: them late, you win both. Mahas shot against Gage Young

529
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 3: Maha shot plus one ten, Gage Young moving up to

530
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,679
Speaker 3: around minus one thirty Maha Fororch is taller, only a

531
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 3: one inch reach advantage. Young lost to Killian Salkild on

532
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: Defenders Contender Series, then lost thirty twenty seven Eld and

533
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: Elder in his debut. I think he has the better chin,

534
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 3: less power, maybe a little bit of grappling upside. I

535
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 3: kind of lean to this fight to go to a

536
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 3: decision at minus one thirty five, but I'm not super

537
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 3: interested in betting it, just because I could see these

538
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 3: two throwing down and somebody getting knocked out out. Do

539
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 3: you have any bets on this fight or any lean

540
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 3: at this point?

541
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 5: Nothing on this one.

542
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 1: Just wanted to point out Maho chat did knock out

543
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: Steve Garcia before Garcia's incredible run, and then it's just

544
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: looked pretty bad since then his only win was the

545
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 1: split decision, So that was kind of weird because the

546
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 1: Steve Garcia, you know, theoretically, with what we know about

547
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 1: Steve Garcia, now that's a super impressive win, but you

548
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:22,439
Speaker 1: got adjust your priors when the guy goes one and

549
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: three with the split decision after that. Again, also not

550
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 1: super impressed by Gage young, So I don't know, don't

551
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 1: have any strong feelings there.

552
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 4: No worries.

553
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean again, it's a little bit earlier than

554
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 3: we put this out. There's always one more data point

555
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 3: that I wait for after weiyans come out in order

556
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 3: to make my final decisions. There's a book that waits

557
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 3: to put out all of their prop lines until after weighans,

558
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 3: and I kind of use that to wait my projections

559
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 3: against one final time if we're actually putting my money

560
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 3: down on a lot of these props. So leaning with

561
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,959
Speaker 3: we're going with most of our leads here, you know,

562
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 3: trying to talk through some of these spots, just like

563
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: twelve hours ahead of where we normally record the show,

564
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 3: sixteen hours actually. Michelle Perera against Kyle daucas Though this

565
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 3: is a fight and a bet that I have conviction

566
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 3: and will be playing on Saturday. The last couple we'll

567
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 3: see how I end up structuring those. Peerra and Daalacas Ducas.

568
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 3: Coming back to the UFC, he won and defended the

569
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:23,640
Speaker 3: CFFC middleweight title a few times. Surprisingly to me, he's

570
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,920
Speaker 3: the bigger man in this matchup, two inches taller, three

571
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 3: inchre each advantage. Pereira is thicker, stronger, much more powerful.

572
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 3: Daucas has an elite front choke series. He's really good

573
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 3: at wrapping up the neck. I mean, his nickname is

574
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,679
Speaker 3: the Darth Knight, but he can secure the Bravo like.

575
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 3: He's a bunch of different variations. He can go with,

576
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 3: can get them standing, can get them on the mat.

577
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 3: Pera I thought looked like a shell of himself in

578
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 3: his last fight against ABIs Magnametov. Maybe he had a

579
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,120
Speaker 3: bad weight cut, maybe he's declining athletically, but either way,

580
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 3: I think he is the much more powerful, dangerous striker

581
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 3: in this matchup. Daucas defends strokes at forty two percent

582
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 3: Chase super last week thirty eight percent. As I said,

583
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: I liked tooper late if he didn't get nuked early. Well,

584
00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 3: he's certainly got nuked early after being relatively competitive in

585
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 3: round one. Ducas very similar, not in terms of like

586
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 3: the pace he's gonna put on, but in terms of

587
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 3: the striking defense and the vulnerability both to the head

588
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 3: and to the body. I think he's actually way less

589
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 3: durable than Chase with the same poor striking defense. So

590
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 3: Daucas is super hittable and not that durable. Pehera I

591
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 3: think could potentially get subbed here. I make the ITD

592
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 3: line about minus three hundred market is giving us minus

593
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 3: one twenty to minus one fifty. And then Billy and

594
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 3: I both like Pehera as the likelier finisher of the two.

595
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 3: I make his KO line about even money. You can

596
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 3: get plus one sixty five. Billy, you're just taking him

597
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 3: inside the distance. What was that number? I believe plus

598
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 3: one ten or do you like that down too?

599
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 1: It was plus one ten, But now saying that the

600
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,919
Speaker 1: ITD is minus one twenty, I think that's probably the

601
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 1: sharper pick is just take it's not enough of a

602
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: price difference. PETA's just a way, way, way way better

603
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 1: athlete than Kyle Dawcas. Like Dowcas is a good who

604
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 1: got the guy who got really good at grappling despite

605
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 1: his athletic disadvantages. He's kind of like a tall, lanky,

606
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: awkward dude. Michelle Peta looks like an NFL player, so

607
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: just that kind of speed and power differential. They're both

608
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: born in the same year. They're both born in nineteen

609
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: ninety three, so it's hard to say that PETA's declining

610
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: physically and daucas is not.

611
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 5: And they've also both taken some bad losses.

612
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: So I kind of I think this is a good

613
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: by low spot on Peida generally because he lost to

614
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: Fluffy Hernandez had some big moments in the first round

615
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: before he got fluffied, and then a boost Maaga met

616
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: off another guy who grappled with him, bought a smart

617
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: fight captain at range. That's not stuff that Kyle Dawk's

618
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: gonna do. He can't force the grappling on Peida because

619
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: Beta is so much faster and stronger, and he kind

620
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: of relies on people shooting in on him or sticking

621
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 1: their neck down to get those submissions, which Beta doesn't

622
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: have to do. He might do because he's a crazy person,

623
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: which is why I like the minus one twenty because

624
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 1: he might just backflip his way right into a dars

625
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: choke somehow. But he should finish this fight like fairly

626
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: easily with the speed and power against a guy who

627
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: can't defend strikes and is way slower than him.

628
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 3: What would be in terms of pricing, what would be

629
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 3: your trigger point for betting the ITD as opposed to

630
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 3: pahera ITD? Is it like thirty? Is it like even

631
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: money versus minus one thirty? Minus one forty, Like, what's

632
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 3: the split that you need in order to take the

633
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: one side versus I.

634
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 1: Was thinking forty or fifty cents, But it's about how much,

635
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 1: you know, finishing equity I would need from the Doccus

636
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: side to take it. I put in the paya inside

637
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: the distance before I saw the fight ten to ITD

638
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: is so close, So you know, I'm kind of working

639
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 1: from a backwards anchoring point here. I thought plus one

640
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: ten on paid to get a finished was drastically undervalued.

641
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: I thought that'd be easily favored. But it makes sense

642
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: that it's undervalued because we think the inside the distance

643
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: is also undervalued. I don't think you can really go

644
00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: wrong with either of those there, But the thirty cents

645
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: there is effectively, what like, not even six percent in

646
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: terms of implied probability.

647
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 5: I can't do that math that quick often.

648
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 4: One minus one thirty Yeah it's six and a half percent.

649
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 5: Yep.

650
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, So like does Kyle Dowkins have a six and

651
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 1: a half percent chance of getting a finish? That's about

652
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: where I'd put it, So I would need a slightly

653
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 1: bigger spread.

654
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 5: I think for the ITDA to be better.

655
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, good stuff there, I think the the general ITV

656
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 3: market definitely closer to minus one fifty, so make sure

657
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 3: to shop around for the best price. And as we said,

658
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 3: Billy and I both prefer the Paharis side of it,

659
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 3: but if you the price is close enough, you know,

660
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 3: definitely take the ITD line instead. The Ultimate twenty twenty

661
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,880
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662
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:43,760
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663
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664
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:49,640
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665
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,560
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666
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:57,080
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667
00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,680
Speaker 3: And with that we're going to get into Billy's or

668
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: my final prop and Billy's best bet for this card.

669
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: As we transition between sections, look at Charles Johnson at

670
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: about plus one seventy against Loner Kavanaugh minus two hundred.

671
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 3: You've been You've been high on Kavanaugh since he came

672
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 3: into the UFC. I think he fought his way in

673
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 3: through contender series. He's eight years younger, he should be

674
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 3: the more durable man, He's the better athlete, seemingly has

675
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 3: championship caliber upside in the flyweight division, should grapple, probably

676
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 3: if he wants to cover his price tag in this matchup.

677
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,719
Speaker 3: I'm curious your thoughts on that. I would imagine Johnson

678
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 3: keeps this much more competitive. Fe's just allowed to strike

679
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 3: this out because he's three inches taller, three inches longer.

680
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 3: I though, and I think you agree like the fight

681
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: to end inside the distance. I think we get a

682
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 3: high paced war, as we do in any Charles Johnson fight.

683
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 3: I make the ITV line about plus U ten. You

684
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 3: can get his high ast plus two fifty five. The

685
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 3: divisional average would be about minus one twelve most of

686
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: these fights and inside the distance in the flyweight division.

687
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 3: And we're getting big plus money on a high paced

688
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 3: fight to do so between arguably two durable fighters. But Billy,

689
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 3: how do you expect Kavanaugh to overcome that reach advantage?

690
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 3: As he said, three inch gap in both height and reach.

691
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: Do you like him to finish the fight? I know

692
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 3: you like them on the money line, but any prop

693
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 3: angles you like as well?

694
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I actually like the dynamic if Charles

695
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 1: Johnson chooses to stay and strike from the outside because

696
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: Kavanaugh uses a lot of traditional martial arts long kicks,

697
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: spinning stuff, lengthy things, and what you need to make

698
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: any of that work is space and time to set

699
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: them up. So it makes it really hard if you're

700
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 1: the taller fighter to give him that range because he's

701
00:32:34,720 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: gonna leap in or spin in or jump in something

702
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 1: that you don't want to happen. And then if you

703
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 1: try to come in as the taller fighter, now you're

704
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: fighting in a close range where Lonnie cavanaugh shorter arms

705
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: actually make it easier distance to the target for him.

706
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: The big thing though for Kavanaugh that I wrote this

707
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,239
Speaker 1: up in the Contender series breakdown I did for him

708
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: last year and why I've been so high on him

709
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 1: is unlike most traditional martial arts guys, he actually defends himself.

710
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: You know, we're talking about MVP Michael Venham Page before

711
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: the show, fights the whole time with his hands down

712
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: and relies on his reflexes to get out of the way.

713
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: That's great, but it's risky because the first time you

714
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: get clipped, you're gonna pay for it. Kavanaugh, unlike most

715
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 1: guys with that style, carries his hands up Bob's head

716
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:18,280
Speaker 1: really well, moves well inside the pocket and can fight

717
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: inside too. He doesn't just rely on people taking one

718
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: swing at him that he can dodge make him look silly.

719
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: So because of that, I like your angle on the

720
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: fight to end inside the distance. I think most of

721
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: the finishing upside belongs to Kavanaugh though, And since I

722
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: like kavanaught minus two hundred, you like the fight to

723
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: end inside the distance at Ron plus two hundred, he said,

724
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 1: I should see it. Yeah, two fifty five. Kavanaugh to

725
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 1: win by a finishes plus four hundred. Also, very talented

726
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 1: grappler judo black belt can go for finishes on the ground.

727
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: Hasn't shown a ton of that in the UFC because

728
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 1: the matchup has not required it. It's been guys that

729
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: he can't outstrike or has outstriked. Took Flibado Santos down

730
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: four times, but didn't you know, no official sub attempts,

731
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 1: didn't really look for it on the ground. So combining

732
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: both those thts, I like Kavanaugh to get the finish

733
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: at plus four hundred, but he has sixty one percent

734
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 1: striking defense. Charles Johnson isn't gonna be the one to

735
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: force the grappling here. I don't really see how Johnson

736
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 1: gets the finish, which is why I'm on both Kavanaugh's

737
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 1: side and the Kavanaugh finish. Last thing, he has Chinese heritage.

738
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: He's half Chinese, half Irish. Gonna be the popular man here.

739
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: To your point earlier about judging, he probably gets any

740
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 1: close rounds.

741
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 3: I got one best bet and one final bet to

742
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 3: give out before. As I said, we will turn our

743
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 3: attention to the road to UFC card Jaolong against Sue

744
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,479
Speaker 3: Yong Yu in the BANDA weight division. I projected long

745
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 3: about minus one thirty three. You can get him at

746
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: plus one oh five currently two inches taller, five inch

747
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 3: reach advantage, lost to split in his debut. Followed that

748
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 3: up with the Ko of Kwanglee in a fight where

749
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:54,959
Speaker 3: everybody was betting Kwanglee Kong Lee because he performed well

750
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 3: in his debut against Chris Gutierrez on short notice. Natural

751
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 3: spot of a guy coming back. Everybody bet that's him

752
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 3: because he overperformed in his debut, got knocked out by

753
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 3: Joao Wo Suyong. You beat AJ Cunningham is a minus

754
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 3: six hundred favorite. That tells us absolutely nothing. Now you

755
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 3: is going to be the guy grappling here, He's going

756
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 3: to be proactively grappling. He did land takedowns on row

757
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 3: to UFC, he only lands them at about a thirty

758
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 3: percent clip. And Long has shown that while he will

759
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 3: give up takedowns, he will never stop scrambling out from

760
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 3: bottom and looking to get up. And once he gets up,

761
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,360
Speaker 3: he's going to land damage and put a pace on

762
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 3: his opponents. So yes, I expect him to get taken down.

763
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 3: I think you can potentially live bet him after the

764
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 3: first round. If he loses the first round, I expect

765
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 3: him to land more damage longer the fight goes, and

766
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 3: potentially to find a finish late. So Long plus one

767
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 3: oh five to minus one twenty live after round one

768
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 3: and then his knockout prop as well. At plus eight hundred,

769
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 3: I make that closer to I believe plus six hundred

770
00:35:57,440 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 3: you can also play. And I was thinking about this too.

771
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 3: Potentially a same game parlay if you could find him.

772
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 3: As I said last week with the cannoneer fight, the

773
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: cannon ear MVP fight, bet you to get a takedown

774
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 3: and bet Long to win the fight. A little reverse

775
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 3: correlation here, I think could potentially. I mean, you're probably

776
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 3: gonna get like two and a half takedowns. I'm not

777
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 3: sure what the prop is for you, but the over

778
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 3: on his takedowns with Long to also win the fight

779
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 3: Long over significant strikes. I think there could be a

780
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 3: little bit of a reverse correlation there in terms of

781
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 3: how the fight plays out. Billy, I've got one more fight.

782
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 3: It's the first fight on the card. I want to discuss,

783
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 3: but I want to give you some space to talk

784
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 3: about Long and see Young Yu and if you have

785
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 3: any betting thoughts here.

786
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually like the under two and a half

787
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: in that. I think it is a pretty binary fight.

788
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: I'm with you one hundred percent on Jao long ability

789
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,399
Speaker 1: to finish the fight with strikes. I think if sue

790
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 1: Young you can get them in a bad spot on

791
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: the ground or hold him down. Pretty good shot at

792
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: getting a submission. Didn't actually finish any of his fights

793
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 1: with submissions and road to the UFC or against a

794
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: j Cunningham longed a lot of attempts though you know

795
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 1: he he's going for submissions a lot.

796
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 5: He's trying.

797
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 1: I don't know what Jiles grappling defense is like against

798
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: higher level opposition, just because we haven't seen him do

799
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: it much. Most of the road to the UFC fights,

800
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: not most. Many of the road to the UFC fights

801
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: are kind of like muy Thai with little gloves on,

802
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: because these are just from countries that have deep roots

803
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 1: in the striking martial arts. So I think it's a

804
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: pretty binary fight. The under two and a half is

805
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: plus two thirty in that one, and I'm sure the

806
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 1: divisional averages on a finish are you know, around even money,

807
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,919
Speaker 1: So cutting off the last two and a half minutes

808
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:33,760
Speaker 1: you could also play fight doesn't go to the decision

809
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 1: for a worse price. Either of those is how I'd

810
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 1: be playing it.

811
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 3: First fight in the Carter or On Sadi Baldiev against

812
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 3: Dr Nersey Guy light heavyweight division. Dr missed weight against

813
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 3: Brentson Roberro for his ufdaw which we really see at

814
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,399
Speaker 3: light heavyweight, and then he lost as a minus four

815
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 3: hundred favorite via Kimora in round two. He seemed like

816
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 3: he gassed out in that fight. Sadi Baldiev lost a

817
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 3: decision up at heavyweight in his UFCA debut short notice decision.

818
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 3: Now he's moving back down to light heavyweight. He's two

819
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 3: inches taller, he has a five inch reach advantage. I

820
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 3: projected his money line at minus one eighty, would bet

821
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 3: him up to minus one sixty. Billie, did you have

822
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 3: an angle that you like for this fight? And am

823
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 3: I on the wrong side in terms of the favorite.

824
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 5: No, I'm actually with you.

825
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: I think the prices came down pretty heavily throughout the

826
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:25,480
Speaker 1: week versus what it was earlier in the week, which

827
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: feels like an opportunity to get a better price on

828
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,279
Speaker 1: Tati Bodiev. It's also just very hard to evaluate either

829
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 1: of these guys because they both effectively fought heavyweight fights

830
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 1: in their debut. They both lost against lower level competition.

831
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: I don't think either of these guys are great. I

832
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 1: thought there Goes I relied really heavily on his athleticism

833
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: to just overwhelm people before fighting other people who are

834
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: also good athletes, like Brentson Hiberio, who's not a great

835
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: fighter but is a good athlete.

836
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 5: So I think I'm with you, but I don't have

837
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 5: strong feelings.

838
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 3: Gonna turn our attention to the Road to UFC event

839
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 3: on Friday morning at six am Eastern. If you were

840
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 3: listening or watching this show and those fights have already

841
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 3: taken place, feel free to skip.

842
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 4: This will be the.

843
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 3: Remainder of the program. Billy has got a few bets

844
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 3: that he likes in terms of the prelimbs, and then

845
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 3: we'll discuss the two actual UFC fights later on in

846
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 3: the card.

847
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 4: Billy, your two bets. The first is dom Mon Don.

848
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 3: Mar Fan, he's from Australia, is going against Jay Jon

849
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 3: Park from South Korea.

850
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 4: What did you bet Fan at and what do you

851
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 4: like it down to?

852
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: Don mar Fan best nickname on the weekend is street Buddha.

853
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:32,759
Speaker 1: I have no idea how you get that nickname or

854
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,279
Speaker 1: what it means, but he's Street Buddha, which I love.

855
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:39,479
Speaker 1: I got him at plus one fourteen slight plus money.

856
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 1: I would take him any plus money. He's a really

857
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 1: good grappler, good top game. In his last fight on

858
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: the road to the UFC quarter Finals because this is

859
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 1: the semi finals, got eight minutes of control time and

860
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: two takedowns, both of his losses in his career. Aret

861
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: Quillan Seal killed who's now two to zero in the

862
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: UFC and won his fight on the Contender series. Why

863
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 1: they ran it back after Cell Film finished him the

864
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,399
Speaker 1: first time. I have no idea. Don mar Fine has

865
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: beat everyone else. He has fought. He's taken on Park

866
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:11,160
Speaker 1: Jay Hoon. He's a Korean zombie protege. He fights kind

867
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 1: of like Korean zombie, but he doesn't have the chin.

868
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: Which is a really bad combination of things for me

869
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,080
Speaker 1: to say back to back, because he does a lot

870
00:40:19,080 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: of these South Korean fighters. They throw really heavy, they

871
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:22,399
Speaker 1: come forward in the pocket game.

872
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 3: Two attributes that have no business being said together. That

873
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 3: is a horrible combination. Continue, I'm sorry.

874
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:33,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's exactly. So he gets he just looks

875
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: bad when he gets hurt. He hasn't been knocked out

876
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: too many times, but he's been dropped. It just kind

877
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: of looks wobbly. You can't do that. And he got

878
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 1: taken down seventeen times in one of his Road to

879
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 1: the UFC fights, and now he's fighting a grappler in

880
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 1: the Grappler's plus money, so don Marfin absolutely could get

881
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: knocked out. He is the worst striker. When I watched

882
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 1: some of his regional tape, that kept going on about

883
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 1: how improved his striking was, which tells me that a

884
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 1: striking used to be even worser than it looked when

885
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 1: I saw it. But I think when you've got such

886
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 1: a clear advantage as a plus money fighter. That's a

887
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: pretty easy one. Then my other one is actually the

888
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 1: reason I even asked to move this podcast so I

889
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 1: could talk about this event. That is Aaron tows him up. Tow,

890
00:41:12,640 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: one of my favorite fighters on last season of the

891
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: Contender Series, lost a close decision to Elijah Smith. In

892
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: my notes on the Contender Series, I said that Aaron

893
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: Tow looks way too big to be fighting bantam Waite

894
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 1: had some experience at featherweight. He's making one twenty five now.

895
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 1: The guy he's built like a smaller version of Alexander Volkanowski,

896
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 1: another AMZAC fighter, moved to New MAJORI originally moved to Australia,

897
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 1: came back to New Zealand to train at City Kickboxing.

898
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 1: Has all the skills, looks really good. Struggled against the taller,

899
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 1: longer Elijah Smith, but took Smith through a decision. And

900
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 1: Smith is good. We just saw him get that huge

901
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 1: slam knockout. Aaron Tow somewhere between minus one seventy and

902
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: minus one eighty. It's bouncing around. I'd play him to

903
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 1: about minus two hundred. Don't know a ton about his opponents.

904
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 1: I'm trying to look up even the notes I made here.

905
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:03,839
Speaker 1: That's not really the point though. I just think he's

906
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:07,759
Speaker 1: a much more talented, much better athlete than Schwhy in

907
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 1: Black Panther not Black Rooster. Again, don't know much about him,

908
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 1: but he's gonna get overwhelmed by Tao. So yeah, that's

909
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 1: the reason I wanted to move this one to just

910
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 1: so I could talk more Aaron Tow. I picked him

911
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: as a big underdog over Elijah Smith, which didn't work out,

912
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: but he fought him close, and that his aged extremely

913
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:24,399
Speaker 1: well in the term.

914
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:28,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, i'd love that fight that Tao had against Elijah Smith.

915
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 3: I bet that with you. Smith just had that violent

916
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 3: rampage Jackson esque slam knockout. As you said, I mean,

917
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 3: he's proven to be an elite athlete, and I thought

918
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 3: Tao was super impressive on Contender Series. Expected him to

919
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:43,239
Speaker 3: get invited back to Contender Series instead of having to

920
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 3: fight through a tournament to get a UFC contract. Maybe

921
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,239
Speaker 3: the UFC thought this was an easier path for him

922
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 3: fighting against fighters from this region instead of another potential

923
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 3: challenger from you know, the USA or Europe or something

924
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:57,839
Speaker 3: like that. But y'all, I'll be joining you on Aaron

925
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 3: tal if I can too many domestic books offering prices

926
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 3: on these.

927
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 5: Draggings, has all these now that might be the only

928
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 5: one right now for me.

929
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 3: In New York they just added a DWCS tab too.

930
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 3: They haven't had them really very much either, like it's

931
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 3: difficult to find, but in the same respect, same game

932
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 3: parlay as they were the first one to put them out,

933
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 3: and now like other books have started to add the

934
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 3: functionality too, So I'm not sure if it's something they

935
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 3: have to apply for individually, and that's why it's staggering

936
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:27,480
Speaker 3: out slowly. But it seems like there's at least one

937
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 3: book where you can get money down on these road

938
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: to UFC fights. And there are two UFC fights, as

939
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,359
Speaker 3: I said, to actual UFC fights on this card. One

940
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 3: is a flywapout between theomdar Gal Art of Knockout, Touman

941
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 3: Denbrel and Terrence Wrong Turn, Stay Turn. He's making his

942
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 3: UFC debu. He was fighting on your RYA Favors promotion.

943
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,320
Speaker 3: I don't really know much about him. Tuman Denbrel lost

944
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 3: the split in his UFC dew against Carlos Hernandez as

945
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,200
Speaker 3: a plus one fifty underdog, so we're able to do

946
00:43:57,280 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 3: tape for this fight, Billy. I Unfortunately I don't have

947
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 3: as many days of points as I would need to

948
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 3: in order to have a like a definitive take on

949
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 3: this fight, because it is around to pick them price.

950
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 3: So what did you see in this matchup? And I'd

951
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:10,359
Speaker 3: imagine you didn't land on a bet here.

952
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 1: I did not land on a bet just because I

953
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 1: couldn't find any tape on Sey Urn, especially against you know,

954
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 1: competition that I was comfortable with, and then losing the

955
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 1: split decision to Carlos Hernandez a little disappointing. I remember

956
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: being high on Tuman Dunbrell coming into that fight, but

957
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,319
Speaker 1: Carlos Hernandez splitty does not do a lot for me there,

958
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 1: So passed on that one. But we do have a

959
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: fun main event. You have a bet in on that.

960
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: I think if you made the bet when you put

961
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:37,040
Speaker 1: it in the sheet, you already have some closing line

962
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:41,400
Speaker 1: value on Bruna Brazil. Bruna Brazil against Shang Ming the Doctor.

963
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, she should be a huge favorite here. She's moving

964
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 3: down from flyway to strawweight, so we'll see how that

965
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 3: way cut goes. But she's going to be Fortres taller,

966
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 3: have a five and a half inch reach advantage. This

967
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 3: is her second training camp with fighting Nerds and she

968
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 3: is a very popular underdog. She's a doctor. I believe

969
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 3: she on multiple times as an underdog on road to UFC,

970
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 3: including winning a UFC contract in a fight where she

971
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 3: was losing twenty to eighteen on two of the three

972
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,320
Speaker 3: scorecards via head kick knockout in the third round against

973
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 3: a much taller and longer opponent. So can she land

974
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 3: another head kick knock out here? Maybe, but she's up

975
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 3: against it otherwise, just because Brazil is an actual, well

976
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 3: rounded UFC fighter, not a road to UFC prospect, So

977
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 3: she's taking a step up in competition against the fighter

978
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 3: who is moving down in weight and is much more skilled.

979
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: I would imagine the market is just heavily public to

980
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 3: the she side of things. At plus money, I think

981
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 3: Brazil should be closer to minus four hundred and I

982
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 3: would probably bet her to win inside the distance if

983
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,439
Speaker 3: it was available to me. Unfortunately, I can't find any

984
00:45:48,440 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 3: props for this fight as of yet. But did you

985
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 3: kind of have the same read here and what are

986
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:56,280
Speaker 3: your thoughts on Brazil moving down in Weightcase one twenty

987
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 3: five to one point fifteen is a lot different than

988
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 3: moving from one fifty five to one forty five.

989
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean proportionally right, it's you know, four more

990
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: percent of your total body weight or whatever. I actually

991
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 1: covered this one in my luck rating with the exact

992
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 1: same pretty much word for word what you said. Also

993
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,760
Speaker 1: a little bit concerning that it's been like nine months

994
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: since Ming she fought, probably because she's busy being like

995
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 1: an actual medical doctor instead of.

996
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 4: She's a productive member of society a cage.

997
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,920
Speaker 1: She's not out partying with Carlos Protest between training sessions

998
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 1: or whatever, which is, you know, great for her, and

999
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 1: I'm happy for her, and it's a great story.

1000
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 5: She said in the cage after a knockout.

1001
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,959
Speaker 1: Nobody tell my parents because they think I'm studying right now,

1002
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 1: which is the funniest thing to say after winning a

1003
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: head kick knockout in the UFC. But yeah, I mean this,

1004
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: this is a different level. Brune Brazil is going to

1005
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: look three weight classes bigger. Mingsh had some fights at

1006
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 1: one oh five I believe well before coming into the

1007
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: UFC affiliated stuff that doesn't do that should be a

1008
00:46:54,680 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 1: one oh fiver. It should be like a ninety fiver

1009
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: if such a division existed anywhere, but it so. Yeah,

1010
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 1: Bruna Bizil should be a big favorite. Lines gotten kind

1011
00:47:04,440 --> 00:47:06,880
Speaker 1: of blown out. I said in my luck ratings, like,

1012
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 1: as soon as these lines come up, jump on Brazil.

1013
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: It's now minus three sixty. I think it was like

1014
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: minus three hundred or something like that when they first dropped.

1015
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 1: So already going that way. It is the correct side.

1016
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 3: That'll do it for a UFC betting preview for this week.

1017
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 3: You can find more UFC content for both Billy and

1018
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,480
Speaker 3: myself on Action network dot com.

1019
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:24,920
Speaker 4: And if you'd like to tell some of.

1020
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 3: The bets that we discussed on today's show, look for

1021
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 3: the quick slip links both in the podcasts and the

1022
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 3: video description, or visit Action network dot com slash bet Now.

1023
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 3: Don't forget to download the free award winning actionwork aapp

1024
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 3: and sign up for Action Pro for media access to

1025
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 3: expert picks and analysis. Best of all, walk with all

1026
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 3: your bets this weekend. Thank you for listening, but I

1027
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 3: should say if you're looking for us on the audio

1028
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 3: feed next weekend, we will not be there. This is

1029
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 3: the final audio episode of the twenty twenty five MMA season.

1030
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 3: We're going to be moving to YouTube full time for

1031
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 3: the remainder of the year, so make sure to check

1032
00:47:57,400 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 3: us out and support us on the Action Networks YouTube

1033
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 3: channel like subscribe to you all that good stuff and

1034
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,319
Speaker 3: leave us some comments so you know that we want

1035
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 3: the content to keep coming, but make sure to find

1036
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 3: us there. The show will keep going, it just will

1037
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 3: not be on the audio feeds. We look forward to

1038
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 3: seeing you back there in a couple of weeks for

1039
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 3: another card. Best of luck with all your best this weekend,

1040
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 3: and thank you for falling along all year.

1041
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1042
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help us.

1043
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:35,160
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