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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football Show.

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Speaker 1: It's a slice of life type of episode. As we

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Speaker 1: preview the Capitol One Orange Bowl, we'll give you our

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Speaker 1: best bets and player props wins the five seed Oregon

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Speaker 1: Ducks they take on the four seed Texas Tech Red

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Speaker 1: Raiders in Miami for the Capitol One Orange Bowl. This

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Speaker 1: is on New Year's Day at noon Eastern time. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Seth Willcock, joined by Scott bet the Total

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Speaker 1: Boggin Bugs. Does it get any better than this New

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Speaker 1: Year's Day? All the sour kraut in the world and

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Speaker 1: three back to back to back playoff games.

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Speaker 2: Oh God, what a glorious way to ring in the

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Speaker 2: new year. My friend, I am super excited for it.

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Speaker 2: Gonna be some great games here as well. This one

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Speaker 2: is maybe the tightest one of this group. I agree, yeah,

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Speaker 2: And there's a lot of heavy opinions going on in

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Speaker 2: this game. I feel like some people are on Oregon

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Speaker 2: eye roll. I feel like some people are on Texas

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Speaker 2: Tech and think it's eye rolling. But I think this

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Speaker 2: is going to be a close one and we'll get

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Speaker 2: into it. I have strong feelings in this game.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm excited to hear them. And the great thing

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Speaker 1: about the new year, Bogs, we can wipe the slate clean.

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Speaker 1: Right You go on the bank pros Unit tracker and

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Speaker 1: it's a hey, zero zero zero for your record in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. You still got your overall college football

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Speaker 1: record for the season. You gotta deal with you know

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Speaker 1: when you look in the mirror like I do every

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Speaker 1: single day. But it's still it's a fresh slate for

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. So excited to be jumping into it.

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Speaker 1: And before we get to the game, just a shout

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Speaker 1: to all the loyal listeners who are rocking and rolling

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Speaker 1: with us into the new year. I hope you had

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Speaker 1: a great Christmas and or celebrate New Year's with your

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Speaker 1: friends and family as well. Please use a quick favor though,

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Speaker 1: give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this

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Speaker 1: type of content. Also make sure it's subscribing to the

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Speaker 1: channel if you're new, so you don't miss a moment

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Speaker 1: of college football and NFL. Benning covers the rest of

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Speaker 1: the way, and let's go ahead and break down the

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Speaker 1: Capitol One Orange Bowl. This is on Thursday, Anyuary first noon,

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Speaker 1: Eastern times. To Bogs, you gona have to be up

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Speaker 1: and at him early, I know, get get rid of

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Speaker 1: that New Year's Eve hangover and get after it here

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Speaker 1: and the line right now, we've seen it widen a

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Speaker 1: little bit. We initially were seeing Oregon open around one

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Speaker 1: to one and a half point favorites. They are now

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Speaker 1: up to two and a.

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Speaker 2: Half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: So Texas Tech now two and a half point dogs

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Speaker 1: and not much line movement on the total at most shops.

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Speaker 1: But we actually can now get a fifty one and

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Speaker 1: a half point ticket if you'll want the over Oregon.

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Speaker 1: They're coming off day fifty one thirty four win over

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Speaker 1: James Madison in the first round. Essentially it was over

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Speaker 1: by halftime, but they didn't leave the back door open.

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Speaker 1: They did fail to cover then, following to eight and

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Speaker 1: five ats on the year. Only injury for the Ducks

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Speaker 1: of note right now, wide receiver Evan Stewart two towards

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Speaker 1: ACL in the preseason. He is questionable, not seen by

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Speaker 1: the media at practice earlier today. Texas Tech, meanwhile, they

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Speaker 1: are well rested coming off to buy. They were last

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Speaker 1: seen whacking by thirty four to seven in the Big

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Speaker 1: twelve championship game, cashing another Becker another bet for your

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Speaker 1: boy there and uh they're moving to a nation's best

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Speaker 1: eleven and two ats record. Joey maguire, he thinks you

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Speaker 1: all have everyone up for this game. And the BB

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Speaker 1: rejections right now we were saying, hey, there shouldn't be

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Speaker 1: aligned one way or the other.

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Speaker 2: We have this out of pick them.

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Speaker 1: The public betting trends also are kind of agreeing with that.

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Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of the tickets and fifty three percent

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Speaker 1: of the cash are on Texas Tech. Meanwhile, sixty two

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Speaker 1: percent of tickets and fifty five percent of cash is

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Speaker 1: on the under, so Bogs. When it comes to a

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Speaker 1: side or total pick, where do you stand on this game?

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Speaker 2: I'm on Texas Tech on the money line here, and

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Speaker 2: I know has not been a popular pick. I feel

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Speaker 2: like everything I've read, watched, and seen has been oregan

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Speaker 2: here and with a lot of I feel like a

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Speaker 2: lot of attitude has come with picking organ. I feel

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Speaker 2: like taking Texas Tech is eye rolling because of strength

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Speaker 2: of schedule.

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Speaker 1: Has not been had Stepchild type of vibes.

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Speaker 2: A little bit right. I think there's two things that

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Speaker 2: people don't like with this team. I think number one

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Speaker 2: is the fact that they played in the Big Twelve,

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Speaker 2: and number two that they bought a lot of their players.

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of people are upset with those things,

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Speaker 2: but it has worked here, and you know, just off

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Speaker 2: the jump here, there are two other things that I

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Speaker 2: really like in this game. Number one is the long

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Speaker 2: layoff that Texas Tech has had for their quarterback Baron

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Speaker 2: Morton to get back healthy. He's had this leg injury,

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Speaker 2: this knee injury, this foot injury, both, whatever it's been.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to get back to one hundred percent,

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Speaker 2: but I think ninety percent of Baron Morton is still

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Speaker 2: really really good quarterback. So he's moving better. According to

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Speaker 2: people that have been watching in practice, he feels better.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to be one hundred percent for the

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Speaker 2: rest of the year, but he is really good. He

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Speaker 2: was never really a running threat anyway, so it's not

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Speaker 2: like you're taking a part away of his game, any

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Speaker 2: part of his game at all. So you're going to

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Speaker 2: get the Baron Morton that you want in this game,

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Speaker 2: which is a big thing. The other thing, and I

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Speaker 2: don't feel like I've heard a lot of people take

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Speaker 2: this into consideration. This is an early early start time

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Speaker 2: for a West Coast team. This is a noon kickoff,

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Speaker 2: as you said, because I'm a night owl. You're like, hey, bagman,

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Speaker 2: you better be awake, especially after New Year's right, you

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Speaker 2: better be up and at him for this game. And

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Speaker 2: that's for eleven for me local time, this is nine

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Speaker 2: am local kickoff in Oregon. So I think this is

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Speaker 2: a weird start time. It is Forregan a little bit

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Speaker 2: to be starting this early. So but let's get rid

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Speaker 2: of that. I think you all know that I believe

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Speaker 2: the Texas Tech's defense is legit. We obviously know the

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Speaker 2: ed rushers Bailey and Height, and the best defensive player

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Speaker 2: on this team is probably Jacob Rodriguez. We have to

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Speaker 2: acknowledge though, that Bryce Pollock is locking down his side

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Speaker 2: less than fifty percent completion rate. A. J. Holmes and

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Speaker 2: Lee Hunter have been clogging up the middle for that

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Speaker 2: number one run defense as well. And on the other

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Speaker 2: side of that for Oregon, you know Amari Washington is

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Speaker 2: a top NFL draft prospect. He clogs the middle for

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Speaker 2: the Ducks. Safety Dylan Deneman, who came over from Northwestern,

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Speaker 2: is their highest graded player. Matteo you Ungalleile has thirty

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Speaker 2: five hurries. That's fifteenth in the country, and all of

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Speaker 2: their top three cbs for Oregon that's Brandon Finney junior

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Speaker 2: Jayden Kennedy if he OUA are all lower than fifty

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Speaker 2: per allowing a less than fifty percent completion rate. So

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Speaker 2: great defenses in this game on both sides. Dante More

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Speaker 2: has been great recently nine touchdowns in his last four games,

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Speaker 2: plus rushing touchdowns since last two, but he also had

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Speaker 2: two picks against James Madison. I feel like Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: has an answer for almost everything offensively for Oregon, which

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Speaker 2: is why I like this in the game. Kenyan Sadik

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Speaker 2: is their main receiver. Right for Oregon, Jacob Rodriguez, one

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Speaker 2: of the better linebackers in the middle, specifically at getting

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Speaker 2: after the football four picks, got his hands on two others,

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Speaker 2: so they stopped the run. They put relentless pressure on

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Speaker 2: the quarterback. I keep hearing I don't trust Baron Morton

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Speaker 2: on the Texas Tech side, right. I think that's been

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Speaker 2: the big I don't get I don't get it either,

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Speaker 2: Baron Morton.

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Speaker 1: I said it earlier in the season, Bogs Like, I

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Speaker 1: think this guy deserves like a Day two draft rate,

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Speaker 1: Like I think he's one of the better quarterbacks that

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Speaker 1: we've seen played this year. And he also it's not

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Speaker 1: like a one year wonder type of thing with Morton.

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Speaker 1: He's been there and done that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And I'm with you, man, I don't understand the

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Speaker 2: I don't trust Morton or who has Texas Tech played?

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Speaker 2: And look, let's let's just go ahead and let's just

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Speaker 2: say those are fair criticisms, right, Sure, they're fair criticisms

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Speaker 2: of Texas Tech. Texas Tech has not played a tough schedule.

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Speaker 2: B Why used their hardest team they played and they

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Speaker 2: waxed them twice. Their only loss was to Arizona State, Right,

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Speaker 2: And you can say the rest of the schedule in

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Speaker 2: the Big Twelve was less than stellar. That's fine, But

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Speaker 2: what about who Oregon has played? Right? They lost to

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Speaker 2: Indiana at home. They were really close to losing against

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Speaker 2: Penn State and Iowa, both really good defenses and closer

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Speaker 2: than they should have been with James Madison last week, right,

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Speaker 2: Also closer than they should have been with Washington Wisconsin.

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Speaker 2: And the blowouts are Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State, Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: So maybe you don't trust Morton, But the only Texas

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Speaker 2: Tech loss was when he was hurt and they were

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Speaker 2: on the road, right, And since they haven't played a

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Speaker 2: game since that loss against Arizona State, they have not

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Speaker 2: played a game within three touchdowns. So whoever they put

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Speaker 2: in front of them, they're beating them by at least

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Speaker 2: twenty one points. So Tech has no distracted coaches either,

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Speaker 2: they have balance on offense points, and they I feel

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Speaker 2: like they have an answer for all of Oregon's issues.

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Speaker 2: So I'm taking Texas Tech on the money line in

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Speaker 2: this game. I think they win this game outright in

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Speaker 2: advance to the next round. Look, Indiana's a different story

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Speaker 2: if they end up playing Indiana, but I think they

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Speaker 2: can win this game against Oregon.

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Speaker 1: All I'll say is, you know, a lot of people

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Speaker 1: last season when little idypity Arizona State went up against

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Speaker 1: your Texas Longhorns, everyone thought they didn't have a shot

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Speaker 1: in the world. And this Texas Tech team has been

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Speaker 1: dominant for the entire season. Like this isn't just like

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Speaker 1: Arizona State. They got hot at the end of the season,

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Speaker 1: Scata who was being a monster, you know, and the

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Speaker 1: quarterback Sam Levit started to put together like this from

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Speaker 1: day one, and even like you know, you could argue

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Speaker 1: in the transfer portal like this Texas Tech team has

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Speaker 1: been legit on paper and they've proved it out on

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Speaker 1: the field as well. So for me, my play on

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Speaker 1: this one is to back that Texas Tech defense. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to Oregon team total under twenty six and a half.

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Speaker 1: You can almost get this even money minus one oh two.

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Speaker 1: Right now, this is my favorite bet of the week

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Speaker 1: so far. Texas Tech. They have the number three scoring defense.

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Speaker 1: They're allowing just an average of ten point nine points

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Speaker 1: per game. They have the number one ranked rushing defense,

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Speaker 1: and Oregon, how are they moving the ball here?

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Speaker 2: You mentioned it.

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Speaker 1: It's Sadik through the air and it's running the ball

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Speaker 1: with no Winnington and right now, like, I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that fourteenth ranked rushing attack is gonna have a

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Speaker 1: ton of success. And while Dante Moore has been good,

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Speaker 1: I don't think like I don't think he's been in credit.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we'll talk more about this over on

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros NFL Draft Show. I'm sure this spring

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Speaker 1: with Debro, but it's a one year thing. Like like Baron Morton,

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Speaker 1: he has been around quite a bit longer. And like Tech,

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Speaker 1: they've also allowed Bogs zero teams this season, zero teams

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Speaker 1: to score over twenty six and a half points. So

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Speaker 1: the only two teams that went over twenty points Kansas

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Speaker 1: State when they kind of let them in almost in

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Speaker 1: the back door there, and Arizona State when Baron Morton

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Speaker 1: was not out there for Texas Tech to continue to

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Speaker 1: drive the ball and down the field and get some

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Speaker 1: time off the clock. They limit big plays the eleventh

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Speaker 1: fewest in the country. Red zone scoring is pretty low

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Speaker 1: against them, fifty third in the country, and they're getting

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Speaker 1: after the opposing quarterback at the third highest clip. And

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Speaker 1: that's really what I want to highlight here. Boggs is Oregon.

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Speaker 1: When have they struggled this season offensively well? When other

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Speaker 1: teams get against them and have great pass rushes. Right,

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Speaker 1: seventeen points in regulation.

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Speaker 2: Again, this is the best pass rush in the nation.

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Speaker 1: I agree, And seventeen points in regulation against Penn State.

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Speaker 1: They end up scoring thirty, but thirteen of those came

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Speaker 1: in OT twenty against Indiana, eighteen against Iowa, twenty six

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Speaker 1: against Washington. I think that trend is going to continue here,

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Speaker 1: regardless if they lose or win. I do think this

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Speaker 1: is a coin flip game. I do lean Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: with you, despite popular opinion. But I just feel really

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Speaker 1: good about this team. Total under Forregan twenty six and

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Speaker 1: a half. Man, I think it's generous.

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Speaker 2: I think they're both good bets, and I'm with you

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Speaker 2: my game prediction when we get to it, I don't

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Speaker 2: have Oregon scoring them at twenty six points, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm right there with you.

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Speaker 1: Man.

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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a more defensive

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Speaker 2: game than people think, and that is the difference here, right, Like,

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Speaker 2: I think there is the one thing that worries me

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Speaker 2: about Texas Tech is they have not played a defense

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Speaker 2: like Oregon. Oh sure right, sure that so their offense

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Speaker 2: I have a little worry about, But that defense I

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Speaker 2: have no questions about. I know they're good, Yes, absolutely. Folks.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're tracking your bets, staying accountable, and leveling

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Speaker 1: up by downloading the free betting pros app today. With

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Speaker 1: sportsbook Sink, you can automatically track your bets across all

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Speaker 1: bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,

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Speaker 1: and of course parlays. Great custom betting systems to find

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Speaker 1: that's Juice promo code Juice and activating your trial on

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Speaker 1: the upgrade screen. Bogs. You have three player props and

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Speaker 1: two of them are coming on Texas Tech Red Raiders

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Speaker 1: and one on an Oregon Duck. What do you have

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Speaker 1: for us this week? Uh?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm being a little bit negative. In the first

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Speaker 2: two year for the quarterback Baron Morton under twenty and

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Speaker 2: a half completions, He's only hit this in four of

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Speaker 2: eleven games this season. Oregon is fourth best in the

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Speaker 2: country in completion percentage allowed to opponents at fifty one

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Speaker 2: point three percent. So let's say, you know he needs

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Speaker 2: to be in that area around fifty percent. Only had

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Speaker 2: one game with forty attempts and only thirty five or

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Speaker 2: more in one other game, So only two games with

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Speaker 2: thirty five or more attempts. I just don't know that

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Speaker 2: he's going to get to this total here. They like

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Speaker 2: to spread the ball around, so if they find a weakness, great,

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Speaker 2: But we mentioned it. Those top three corners for Oregon

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Speaker 2: are allowing less than a fifty percent completion percentage. So

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a tough day for

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Speaker 2: both these teams to move the ball. I think we're

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Speaker 2: going to go under on twenty and a half completions

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Speaker 2: for Baron Morton. Then I'm going to go over half

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Speaker 2: an interception for Dante Moore. Now, he's been great this year,

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Speaker 2: only nine turnover worthy plays for more all season. But

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Speaker 2: unlike the Ohio State game that we talked about in

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Speaker 2: the last show, Texas Tech is number one in the

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Speaker 2: country in turnovers forced this season. So I think Dante

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Speaker 2: more is, you know, going to face some tough pressure

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Speaker 2: from Bailey and Height, and I think that he does

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Speaker 2: throw a pick in this game. And then my last one,

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Speaker 2: I just think if you're Texas Tech, you're gonna run

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Speaker 2: Cameron Dicky as much as possible. Sixty seven and a

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Speaker 2: half rushing yards is a total. We're gonna go over

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Speaker 2: that one. I think you challenge Oregon by running the ball.

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Speaker 2: Keeping the ball away from their offense is the smartest

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Speaker 2: thing to do. Keep your great defense on the field

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Speaker 2: if your Texas Tech, or keep your offense on the

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Speaker 2: field to keep your great defense gassed up. He's hit

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Speaker 2: this five weeks in a row, as well, and that's

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Speaker 2: you know, two times against BYU, who is a tough defense,

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Speaker 2: and forty one percent of Dickey's yards have come on

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Speaker 2: breakaways this season, so one slip tackle and he seems

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Speaker 2: to go a distance. So I think a big chunk

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Speaker 2: game for him helps him get to most of this total.

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Speaker 2: So over sixty seven and a half for Cameron Dickey. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I like a lot of these props.

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Speaker 1: I specifically like the Dante More prop just because, look,

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Speaker 1: if you're throwing picks against JMU, like I know they're

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Speaker 1: being aggressive, they're trying to make sure this doesn't become

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Speaker 1: a trap game. But at the same time, if your

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Speaker 1: throwing picks against JMU, I don't trust you to keep

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Speaker 1: the ball away from someone like Rodriguez when you're gonna

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Speaker 1: be targeting Sadik as much.

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Speaker 2: That was a night not across the country. Yeah, at

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Speaker 2: a weird sart time for you either, So I like

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Speaker 2: that one all.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And then Baron Morton under his completions, I'm fine

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Speaker 1: with that one as well, just because it feels like,

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is such a good receiving corps for

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech, like they have Caleb Dougt Douglass, they have

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Speaker 1: Coy Echan and they also have a guy named Reggie

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Speaker 1: Virgil who started to come on down the stretch. But

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Speaker 1: it doesn't feel like they all go off together in

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Speaker 1: a game, right. It's usually like, Okay, this is they

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Speaker 1: spread it around, yep, this is Caleb Douglas game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get the tight end. Terrence Carter Junior involved

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Speaker 1: this game. But it's never like Listen, I had all

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Speaker 1: these guys in CFF, I had the entire Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: Cross and it felt like Ecan and Douglas and Virgil

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Speaker 1: never really went off in the same game. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I like that played quite a bit here as well.

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Speaker 1: And it is, as you mentioned, the best defense that

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Speaker 1: they have faced this season as well. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: the same game Parlay of the Week, and we're taking

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Speaker 1: our two best bets and we're putting them together. That's right.

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Speaker 1: It's the Oregon team total under twenty six and a

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Speaker 1: half points minus one oh two and that Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: money line plus one fifteen. You put those together, you

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Speaker 1: pay the correlation tax. It's gonna come out at parlay

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Speaker 1: odds a plus one fifty five bogs. So Oregon team

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Speaker 1: total under Texas Tech money line. What do you think, man?

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Speaker 2: I like it. Yeah. I think those things pair well

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Speaker 2: together and hopefully that's the way it goes, because that's

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Speaker 2: why my final score.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's get to that right here in the final

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Speaker 1: score predictions, Bogman, what do you have for the final

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Speaker 1: score of this Orange Bowl tight game.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Texas Tech twenty seven Oregon twenty four

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Speaker 2: as my final which keeps us just barely under on

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Speaker 2: that hook and gets your team total under and gets

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Speaker 2: my Texas Tech on the money line. I love it.

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Speaker 1: I'm going Text Tech twenty three Oregon twenty so, same

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Speaker 1: type of thing. I see this as a three point

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Speaker 1: maybe a one point game in the end of this,

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Speaker 1: but I do think Texas Tech in that defense will

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Speaker 1: prevail and have a big twelve championship team sitting in

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Speaker 1: the semi finals for the College Football Playoff. Bog's great

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Speaker 1: stuff is always that it is going to do it

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Speaker 1: for us. On this episode of the Betting Pros College

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Speaker 1: Football Show, be sure check out Bog's best bets for

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Speaker 1: the Ring Bowl games that's already out whether you listen

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Speaker 1: on audio or on the YouTube channel that's available for you.

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Speaker 1: We also have micro episodes for all three of the

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Speaker 1: other remaining college football playoff games coming your way this week.

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Speaker 1: Let us know down in the comments below your favorite

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Speaker 1: picks for the Capital one Orange. But we want to

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Speaker 1: hear from you and well you're here to make sure

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Speaker 1: you're smashing that lug butt and subscribing to the channel.

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Speaker 1: If you're new for Scott Bogman, I've said with Wilcock,

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Speaker 1: take care of y'all.

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Speaker 2: Happy New Year, Happy New Year. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 2: the Betting Pros podcast.

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Speaker 3: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

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Speaker 3: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 3: or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting

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Speaker 3: Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to

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Speaker 3: our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com, slash Betting Pros

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Speaker 3: and