Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea on a marginally calmer day than the
Speaker 2: last three days of festivities. Yesterday afternoon, I was in
Speaker 2: the surveillance snap and I woke up from virtually the
Speaker 2: crisis of down thirty percent. I can't remember what the
Speaker 2: exec number is, down thirty two percent to making it
Speaker 2: halfway back to down seventeen percent, down eighteen percent from
Speaker 2: the recent highs of what last two three four months.
Speaker 2: Just an extraordinary rally yesterday after President's actions on pausing tariffs,
Speaker 2: and we picked up the pieces this morning, a lot
Speaker 2: of really really good conversations. Ian Lingoln was with us
Speaker 2: with BEMO Capital Markets, Bank of Montreal. He is absolutely
Speaker 2: definitive on full faith and credit here. Ian Lingen on the.
Speaker 3: Moment, I actually think, if anything, the turmoil in Washington
Speaker 3: increases the chances of a consumer led economic slowdown and
Speaker 3: a recession is disinflationary on a forward basis. So once
Speaker 3: we absorb all the tariff increases, I think we'll have
Speaker 3: a consumer that is in a much different, much less
Speaker 3: compelling place than it was during the pandemic. And so
Speaker 3: I'm worried about disinflation in two thousand and twenty six
Speaker 3: and beyond Ian.
Speaker 2: Lncoln looking at one part of the FED mandate there,
Speaker 2: and it's some real confusion about what the Fed does forward.
Speaker 2: No fault of them in this time of policy chaos,
Speaker 2: I guess is how to collegiately put it. I'll be
Speaker 2: over at see an end today's scheduled at least this afternoon.
Speaker 2: And you know, as Ian Lingen talks about inflation, I
Speaker 2: think for the non Bloomberg, the non single best idea
Speaker 2: surveillance world, the job economy is really front and center
Speaker 2: into the rest of two thousand, two twenty five. Anamong
Speaker 2: today stunned me. She's already modeling five point three percent
Speaker 2: unemployment out there somewhere in the next year. And I don't
Speaker 2: want to be too inflammatory on this, but I can't
Speaker 2: begin to find words for the reach from four point
Speaker 2: x percent four point one four point two percent out
Speaker 2: to maybe a modeled four point eight percent consensus, and
Speaker 2: then to go beyond that to a five point three
Speaker 2: percent unemployment rate. I'm not sure Washington, of any party
Speaker 2: persuasion is ready for that. Anaalong of Bloomberg economics.
Speaker 4: What the Trump pivot did yesterday is to shift the
Speaker 4: composition of the tariff onto consumer goods. And as you know,
Speaker 4: Paul I was in the camp in the previous and
Speaker 4: the previous couple months that I think that ultimately the
Speaker 4: firms will be eating these tariffs through margin compression, which
Speaker 4: disproportionately will hit the stock market at EPs for firms. However,
Speaker 4: I think that yesterday pivot is actually bad for CPI
Speaker 4: because it now means because China exports more consumer goods
Speaker 4: to US than other countries, so by reducing terraff rights
Speaker 4: of other countries which still remain rather elevated, while boosting
Speaker 4: Chinese tariffs from one hundred and twenty five percent from
Speaker 4: the previous eighty four percent. So even though today the
Speaker 4: report shows no signal will pass through from Chinese tariffs,
Speaker 4: I think maybe that could change in the next couple
Speaker 4: of months. But the negative side of today's report is
Speaker 4: that Trump may be emboldened by today's report saying that
Speaker 4: while tariffs are not inflationary, look at this and he
Speaker 4: would press ahead with reciprocal tariffs, lights out.
Speaker 2: No other way to put it. An along running Bloomberg
Speaker 2: US Economics just profoundly important work in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: and of course that continues into this year. Look out
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