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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea on a marginally calmer day than the

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Speaker 2: last three days of festivities. Yesterday afternoon, I was in

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Speaker 2: the surveillance snap and I woke up from virtually the

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Speaker 2: crisis of down thirty percent. I can't remember what the

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Speaker 2: exec number is, down thirty two percent to making it

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Speaker 2: halfway back to down seventeen percent, down eighteen percent from

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Speaker 2: the recent highs of what last two three four months.

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Speaker 2: Just an extraordinary rally yesterday after President's actions on pausing tariffs,

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Speaker 2: and we picked up the pieces this morning, a lot

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Speaker 2: of really really good conversations. Ian Lingoln was with us

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Speaker 2: with BEMO Capital Markets, Bank of Montreal. He is absolutely

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Speaker 2: definitive on full faith and credit here. Ian Lingen on the.

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Speaker 3: Moment, I actually think, if anything, the turmoil in Washington

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Speaker 3: increases the chances of a consumer led economic slowdown and

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Speaker 3: a recession is disinflationary on a forward basis. So once

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Speaker 3: we absorb all the tariff increases, I think we'll have

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Speaker 3: a consumer that is in a much different, much less

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Speaker 3: compelling place than it was during the pandemic. And so

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Speaker 3: I'm worried about disinflation in two thousand and twenty six

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Speaker 3: and beyond Ian.

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Speaker 2: Lncoln looking at one part of the FED mandate there,

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Speaker 2: and it's some real confusion about what the Fed does forward.

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Speaker 2: No fault of them in this time of policy chaos,

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Speaker 2: I guess is how to collegiately put it. I'll be

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Speaker 2: over at see an end today's scheduled at least this afternoon.

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Speaker 2: And you know, as Ian Lingen talks about inflation, I

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Speaker 2: think for the non Bloomberg, the non single best idea

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Speaker 2: surveillance world, the job economy is really front and center

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Speaker 2: into the rest of two thousand, two twenty five. Anamong

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Speaker 2: today stunned me. She's already modeling five point three percent

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Speaker 2: unemployment out there somewhere in the next year. And I don't

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Speaker 2: want to be too inflammatory on this, but I can't

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Speaker 2: begin to find words for the reach from four point

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Speaker 2: x percent four point one four point two percent out

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Speaker 2: to maybe a modeled four point eight percent consensus, and

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Speaker 2: then to go beyond that to a five point three

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Speaker 2: percent unemployment rate. I'm not sure Washington, of any party

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Speaker 2: persuasion is ready for that. Anaalong of Bloomberg economics.

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Speaker 4: What the Trump pivot did yesterday is to shift the

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Speaker 4: composition of the tariff onto consumer goods. And as you know,

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Speaker 4: Paul I was in the camp in the previous and

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Speaker 4: the previous couple months that I think that ultimately the

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Speaker 4: firms will be eating these tariffs through margin compression, which

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Speaker 4: disproportionately will hit the stock market at EPs for firms. However,

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Speaker 4: I think that yesterday pivot is actually bad for CPI

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Speaker 4: because it now means because China exports more consumer goods

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Speaker 4: to US than other countries, so by reducing terraff rights

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Speaker 4: of other countries which still remain rather elevated, while boosting

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Speaker 4: Chinese tariffs from one hundred and twenty five percent from

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Speaker 4: the previous eighty four percent. So even though today the

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Speaker 4: report shows no signal will pass through from Chinese tariffs,

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Speaker 4: I think maybe that could change in the next couple

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Speaker 4: of months. But the negative side of today's report is

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Speaker 4: that Trump may be emboldened by today's report saying that

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Speaker 4: while tariffs are not inflationary, look at this and he

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Speaker 4: would press ahead with reciprocal tariffs, lights out.

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Speaker 2: No other way to put it. An along running Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: US Economics just profoundly important work in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: and of course that continues into this year. Look out

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Speaker 2: on particularly LinkedIn. If you want to get a window

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Speaker 2: into this and a really nice window in the economics

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Speaker 2: on the Bloomberg terminal, go to LinkedIn where Anna and

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Speaker 2: our global team. It's not just what they're saying, like

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Speaker 2: what you hear on single best Idea with doctor Wong,

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Speaker 2: It's about what they're showing. Matt Winkler's foundational belief was show,

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Speaker 2: don't tell, and Bloomberg Economics has graphical presentations of all

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Speaker 2: these dynamics like nobody else in the world. It's just

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Speaker 2: absolutely stunning what Stephanie Flanders is developed with doctor Wong

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Speaker 2: there on your commune across the nation. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for listening. On YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts, it's

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Speaker 2: growing each and every day, and on YouTube podcasts, this

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Speaker 2: is a single best idea