1
00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:05,760
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg day Break Asia for this Tuesday, June

2
00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,959
Speaker 1: twenty seventh in Hong Kong, Monday June twenty sixth in

3
00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:10,840
Speaker 1: New York and coming up today.

4
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,520
Speaker 2: US Megacap shares slide as the end of the second

5
00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:14,560
Speaker 2: quarter approaches.

6
00:00:14,840 --> 00:00:17,279
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Jennet Yellen is said to be planning a

7
00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:20,400
Speaker 1: visit to Beijing for high level economic talks.

8
00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:23,680
Speaker 2: And China's natural gas company e NN signs a twenty

9
00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,000
Speaker 2: year liquefied natural gas deal with Shaneer Energy.

10
00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 3: Both pregosion and put and break their silence. President Biden

11
00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 3: says the US had nothing to do with what happened

12
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,960
Speaker 3: in Russia, North Korea holding its largest anti US rallying years.

13
00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:38,240
Speaker 3: I'm Dan Schwartzman. I'll have your news coming up.

14
00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,720
Speaker 4: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break Asia, the

15
00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,440
Speaker 4: business news you need to start your day, and just

16
00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:51,040
Speaker 4: one fifteen minute podcast available on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

17
00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 4: Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts.

18
00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,680
Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Deck Prisner and I'm Brian Curtiz. He

19
00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,520
Speaker 1: stories were following today. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is

20
00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,120
Speaker 1: said to be planning a visit to Beijing next month.

21
00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 4: As we mentioned in.

22
00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,800
Speaker 1: Our headlines, let's get the story now from Bloomberg's Joan

23
00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:12,000
Speaker 1: Wong in Hong Kong.

24
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,200
Speaker 5: The trip was long anticipated, but was postponed into what

25
00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,199
Speaker 5: Yellen said would be a more appropriate time. It would

26
00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 5: seem that time is now. The visit would include a

27
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,520
Speaker 5: high level meeting with her counterpart, Vice Premier Hillifong. If

28
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,199
Speaker 5: the trip is confirmed, Yellen would be the second top

29
00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:31,280
Speaker 5: US official to visit Beijing since US China relations soured

30
00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,720
Speaker 5: earlier in the year. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln just

31
00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 5: wrapped up his strip to China. Meanwhile, by an administration

32
00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,199
Speaker 5: executive order will likely come through as soon as July.

33
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,200
Speaker 5: That order would potentially cut off certain US investments in China.

34
00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,520
Speaker 5: In Hong Kong, join Wang Bloomberg day Brickasia.

35
00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,960
Speaker 2: A Chinese natural gas company, has signed a new long

36
00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,600
Speaker 2: term agreement to buy liquefied natural gas from the US

37
00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,520
Speaker 2: energy firm Shneer Energy. We have more from Bloomberg's Baniaoui

38
00:01:58,560 --> 00:01:59,160
Speaker 2: in Hong Kong.

39
00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,160
Speaker 6: China's An Energy has agreed to buy one point eight

40
00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:05,280
Speaker 6: million tons of LNG per year for at least twenty years.

41
00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,400
Speaker 6: Shineer will begin supplying the guests in mid twenty twenty six,

42
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:10,680
Speaker 6: and the level will rise to just under a million

43
00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,720
Speaker 6: tons per year in twenty twenty seven. The remaining amount

44
00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 6: will be subject to Shania's final investment decision on its

45
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,040
Speaker 6: massive Sabine Pass expansion. The expansion is due to start

46
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,359
Speaker 6: by the end of the decade. This deal is the

47
00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,120
Speaker 6: latest in a series of agreements between Chinese buyers and

48
00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 6: LNG producers. Ian And itself signed two deals with other

49
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,280
Speaker 6: US developers. After Russia invaded Ukraine in twenty twenty two,

50
00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,200
Speaker 6: China has been expanding its natural gas consumption to a

51
00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 6: growing network of pipelines and import terminals in Hong Kong.

52
00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 6: I'm Bonnie al Bloomberg day Break Asia.

53
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,840
Speaker 1: Meantime, Japan's government has unveiled a six point three billion

54
00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 1: dollar deal to buy out and privatize the company JSR

55
00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,359
Speaker 1: as government backed Japan Investment Corporation. It plans to offer

56
00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,120
Speaker 1: shareholders thirty dollars and forty cents to share in a

57
00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:59,280
Speaker 1: tender offer around December. Controlling JSR would allow Japan to

58
00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 1: raise its own profile as a chip supplier. Many of

59
00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:06,639
Speaker 1: jsr's materials are needed to make semiconductors used in supercomputers,

60
00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:11,360
Speaker 1: AI harnessing, data centers, and missile control systems. The deal

61
00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,680
Speaker 1: could put Japan in a better position to take on

62
00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:19,360
Speaker 1: its global rivals as competition over technology intensifies. JSR share

63
00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,200
Speaker 1: surged as much as twenty two percent yesterday after the

64
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 1: Nike had reported on the deal.

65
00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,919
Speaker 2: IBM will buy the software company Apdio from the private

66
00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:32,040
Speaker 2: equity firm Vista Equity Partners. This is an all cash transaction.

67
00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:34,920
Speaker 2: It's valued at four point six billion dollars and it

68
00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,840
Speaker 2: marks the seventh acquisition this year for IBM. By the way,

69
00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,400
Speaker 2: it's expected to close in the latter half of this year,

70
00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,680
Speaker 2: and it comes as IBM CEO Arvon Krishna pushes the

71
00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:51,000
Speaker 2: company's transformation into a high bred cloud and artificial intelligence business.

72
00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,720
Speaker 2: We had the chance to speak to the Chief Commercial Officer,

73
00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:57,760
Speaker 2: Rob Thomas. He tells us apdio will help IBM's push

74
00:03:58,040 --> 00:03:58,800
Speaker 2: into automation.

75
00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,400
Speaker 7: Think of appo so as a virtual command center to

76
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:07,800
Speaker 7: understand your technology spend, your cloud spend, and your labor spend.

77
00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 7: I would say timings everything. Is there a better time

78
00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,160
Speaker 7: to have software that can do that type of analysis?

79
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 7: I don't think so. Every company is thinking about how

80
00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:21,640
Speaker 7: do I optimize my spend on technology reduced complexity. I

81
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:24,080
Speaker 7: think this is perfect time for what's happening in the market.

82
00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,440
Speaker 2: And we had shares in IBM finishing up one percent

83
00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,760
Speaker 2: today in the regular session, ran Well.

84
00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,600
Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs is tapping a prominent alum for its board,

85
00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,800
Speaker 1: and it comes at a time when discontent in the

86
00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:38,040
Speaker 1: firm's ranks has spilled over into public view. We get

87
00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:40,280
Speaker 1: the story from Bloomberg's and Kate's.

88
00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,920
Speaker 8: Goldman Sachs is bringing on Tom Montag, who is seen

89
00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,080
Speaker 8: as an ally of CEO David Solomon. Montag rose to

90
00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,600
Speaker 8: second in command at Bank of America after leaving Goldman

91
00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:52,440
Speaker 8: fifteen years ago. According to Bloomberg, frustrations within Goldman have

92
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,880
Speaker 8: become increasingly public after Solomon's push to expand into consumer

93
00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,760
Speaker 8: banking gave way to missed deadlines and blown financial targets

94
00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,159
Speaker 8: for the unit, before reverse in course and unwinding the

95
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,120
Speaker 8: effort last year. Now, Goldman's elite partners and others are

96
00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:08,240
Speaker 8: seeking more accountability and Washington and Kates Bloomberg Day Break Asia.

97
00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 1: I'm Brian Curtis, along with Rishad's Salamat and Kristner so

98
00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 1: DOUG a little more churn in the marketplace today with

99
00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:20,280
Speaker 1: more rotation from the narrow band to the wider band,

100
00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,880
Speaker 1: with energy, real estate, industrials, materials all rallying one to

101
00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:29,400
Speaker 1: two percent in a down tape. Now you wonder, I mean,

102
00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,640
Speaker 1: that's good, that would seem to be good for the

103
00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,920
Speaker 1: overall health of the market, But how sustainable is it

104
00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,800
Speaker 1: going to those types of companies if the economy is

105
00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:38,599
Speaker 1: indeed slowing.

106
00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,359
Speaker 2: Good thing that you mentioned weakness, because I was looking

107
00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:45,159
Speaker 2: today at the Dallas FEDS Manufacturing Index for the state

108
00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,880
Speaker 2: of Texas. It was down for a second straight month

109
00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:51,880
Speaker 2: in June. Now we saw last week, Brian, the PMI

110
00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,279
Speaker 2: data here in the US on the week side, and

111
00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,800
Speaker 2: we're looking for a PMI data at the end of

112
00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,080
Speaker 2: the week for China. And I think one of the

113
00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,000
Speaker 2: things we've been talking a lot about is the slowing

114
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,440
Speaker 2: of the global economy. It's showing up in the oil

115
00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,400
Speaker 2: market too. Even with a lot of this political stuff

116
00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,600
Speaker 2: that we've been talking about. As it relates to Russia,

117
00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 2: crude oil is still below seventy dollars a barrel. That's WTI.

118
00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't look all that great going forward, and

119
00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,680
Speaker 1: you do have these bearers still kind of you know,

120
00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,000
Speaker 1: chipping away at things. You mentioned JP Morgan talking about

121
00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:29,440
Speaker 1: five percent correction that's just really a rebalancing story. And

122
00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 1: then the Mike Wilson risks have rarely been higher lines

123
00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,880
Speaker 1: seems kind of odd. He's actually just calling for a

124
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,599
Speaker 1: ten percent correction, which is really pretty much a garden

125
00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,320
Speaker 1: variety type and you know, you wonder whether or not

126
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,080
Speaker 1: it's really worth getting all that excited. You know, in Nvidia,

127
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:48,400
Speaker 1: it just seems like it goes up and up and

128
00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,160
Speaker 1: up and up. Right, Well, no, it's down almost seven

129
00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,120
Speaker 1: and a half percent from its high, but we barely

130
00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,960
Speaker 1: noticed because you know, seven to ten percent is not

131
00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,200
Speaker 1: really that big of a deal. But Mike Wilson, I mean,

132
00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,400
Speaker 1: his reputations on the line, he's been calling for a

133
00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:02,240
Speaker 1: correction all year.

134
00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,240
Speaker 2: Well, then the wild card, I think is the Fed

135
00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,120
Speaker 2: right and Powell last week saying that maybe another fifty

136
00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,680
Speaker 2: basis points of tightening is in the pipeline. That brings

137
00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,240
Speaker 2: us to what we're going to get at the end

138
00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:15,680
Speaker 2: of the week with the preferred measure of inflation for

139
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,800
Speaker 2: the FED, we'll get the personal consumption Expenditures index for

140
00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,320
Speaker 2: the month of May, and this is going to be key,

141
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:24,400
Speaker 2: particularly when you look at food and energy. If you

142
00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,120
Speaker 2: take those out. I mean we've been looking at elevated

143
00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 2: levels recently. Yes, maybe a bit lower relative to where

144
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,000
Speaker 2: we were a year ago, but things are still far

145
00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 2: away from the Fed's two percent goal.

146
00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:38,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, lots to talk about. With our guest Tom Plum

147
00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:42,160
Speaker 1: coming up, portfolio manager of the Plum Balanced Fund. We

148
00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,040
Speaker 1: can also talk a little bit about the Shiner natural

149
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,679
Speaker 1: gas to China story, and also the Janet Yellen. Again,

150
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,800
Speaker 1: as you mentioned earlier, it's not confirmed yet, but it

151
00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,120
Speaker 1: seems like it could be coming next month, so that

152
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,040
Speaker 1: all sets up as very interesting. We'll get to Tom

153
00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,040
Speaker 1: Plum in a few moments, but now it's time for

154
00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:06,760
Speaker 1: Global News. Well, Vladimir Putin and mister Progosen finally speak out.

155
00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 1: This is quite interesting on this Russian revolt. Dan Schwartzman

156
00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:12,120
Speaker 1: with details from New York.

157
00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,080
Speaker 3: Dan, Yeah, Brian, we know that they had not spoken

158
00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,679
Speaker 3: yet about the situation that occurred in Russia over the weekend,

159
00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,320
Speaker 3: but we finally heard from Wagner Mercenary Group leader ye

160
00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,520
Speaker 3: Off Guiny Progosian, as well as of course Russian President

161
00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:28,600
Speaker 3: Vladimir Putin. This after the mercenary group kind of took

162
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,040
Speaker 3: over to the Russian city Arrustov as well as sending

163
00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,600
Speaker 3: an armored column within one hundred and twenty five miles

164
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,520
Speaker 3: of Moscow. Now, Progoson says he was not trying to

165
00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,520
Speaker 3: remove Putin from power, but was looking to hold those

166
00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:42,959
Speaker 3: accountable for the mistakes made in the war in Ukraine.

167
00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 3: In the eleven minute audio message on the telegram channel,

168
00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:49,400
Speaker 3: Progosian also saying he was preventing the destruction of his

169
00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,720
Speaker 3: mercenary force by state officials. Putin, on the other hand,

170
00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,520
Speaker 3: was addressing the nation earlier today. He says that the

171
00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,920
Speaker 3: organizers of the insurrection were trying to divide the government

172
00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 3: and were traders. Put In also saying his government took

173
00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,840
Speaker 3: all necessary steps to neutralize the danger and that Wagner

174
00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,000
Speaker 3: troops could either join the Russian army or go to

175
00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,640
Speaker 3: Belarus with its leader. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller those

176
00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,800
Speaker 3: says Wagner is as well a bad actor.

177
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:15,680
Speaker 9: Wherever we've seen Wagner operate in the past, we've seen

178
00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,600
Speaker 9: death and destruction follow in their wake, and we have

179
00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,320
Speaker 9: instituted a series of policies to hold them accountable and

180
00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,240
Speaker 9: to counter Wagner's influence and to the extent Wagner continues

181
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:28,120
Speaker 9: to operate in Africa or in Ukraine or anywhere else

182
00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,600
Speaker 9: in the world, or any Wagner successor organizations pick up

183
00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,120
Speaker 9: the mantle that Wagner has carried, we will continue to

184
00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 9: take actions to hold either Wagner or their successor accountable.

185
00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:39,640
Speaker 3: One of the largest anti US rallies taking place in

186
00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,679
Speaker 3: North Korea as a country marked this seventy third anniversary

187
00:09:42,679 --> 00:09:45,000
Speaker 3: of the start of the Korean War. Over one hundred

188
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 3: thousand people gathered at the May Day Stadium in Pyongyang,

189
00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 3: pledging to quote pulverize the American Empire, while speakers called

190
00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:55,160
Speaker 3: for the quote annihilation of the US imperialists. The gathering

191
00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 3: was considered the largest since twenty seventeen. Anderson Lee Aldridge

192
00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,040
Speaker 3: has pleaded guilt in Colorado to five first degree murder

193
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,000
Speaker 3: counts as well as forty six counts of attempted murder

194
00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,719
Speaker 3: for shooting up a gay nightclub in Colorado Springs back

195
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,480
Speaker 3: in November of twenty twenty two. The twenty three year

196
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,000
Speaker 3: old was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility

197
00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,680
Speaker 3: of parole Aldriche wore body armor and was armed with

198
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,160
Speaker 3: both a rifle and a handgun and open fired at

199
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:22,040
Speaker 3: LGBT Night Club Q before being stopped by patrons at

200
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 3: the club. Former Colorado Springs Mayor John Southers says this

201
00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,760
Speaker 3: was the best outcome. I, based on my experience, can

202
00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:32,520
Speaker 3: assure our community and the victims of this crime that

203
00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,959
Speaker 3: the disposition reached today in light of the state of

204
00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:40,000
Speaker 3: the law in Colorado without a death penaly this is

205
00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 3: the best possible disposition that could have taken place. New

206
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,600
Speaker 3: York City's congestion pricing plan has moved one step closer

207
00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,280
Speaker 3: to becoming a reality, as the plan has received federal

208
00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 3: approval the Federal Highway Administration determining that an environmental study

209
00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,920
Speaker 3: and review the plan had no significant impacts, which clears

210
00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,400
Speaker 3: a way for construction to begin on'tolling drivers may have

211
00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,320
Speaker 3: to start paying as much as twenty three dollars to

212
00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,760
Speaker 3: enter Midtown Manhattan. That could start as early as April

213
00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,719
Speaker 3: of twenty twenty four. Global News twenty four hours a

214
00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,040
Speaker 3: day power by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and

215
00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,839
Speaker 3: analysts in more than one hundred and twenty countries, I'm

216
00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:18,439
Speaker 3: Dan Schwartzman. This is Bloomberg.

217
00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:22,360
Speaker 1: I'm Brian Curtis along with Rishad Salama. We are here

218
00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,280
Speaker 1: in our Hong Kong studios, and our guest is Tom Plum,

219
00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,920
Speaker 1: portfolio manager of the Plum Balanced Fund. Tom, the way

220
00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 1: that the market is structured now, you could get a

221
00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,400
Speaker 1: ten percent correction in the benchmarks and just have a

222
00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,320
Speaker 1: kind of continuation of the churn of money coming out

223
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,080
Speaker 1: of the of the fang Man stocks and into some

224
00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,920
Speaker 1: of these more value oriented stocks, and that might be

225
00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:47,200
Speaker 1: healthy for the market. Could you see that happening?

226
00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,760
Speaker 10: Well, it's certainly possible. But you know, right now you

227
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:56,280
Speaker 10: have all that momentum mild correction last week in those

228
00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,120
Speaker 10: stocks that have been showing the revenue growth, and in

229
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,160
Speaker 10: a time like this, we think that growth is still

230
00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:06,120
Speaker 10: going to be considered very, very valuable because we're basically

231
00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,240
Speaker 10: in a slower growth economy in general, and growth is

232
00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:09,920
Speaker 10: harder to get.

233
00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 11: So, well, how would you put the odds of a

234
00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:14,440
Speaker 11: recession here?

235
00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:18,440
Speaker 10: Chard? I think that this has been one of the

236
00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:23,760
Speaker 10: most predicted and anticipated recessions that I've seen. People are

237
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,960
Speaker 10: expecting it, They were expecting it last year, they're expecting

238
00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,319
Speaker 10: it this year. I think that the odds have continued

239
00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:34,520
Speaker 10: to go down because we have strong personal savings, we

240
00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:40,280
Speaker 10: have strong business investment in specific areas, especially in the

241
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:47,120
Speaker 10: areas of data in cyber and those protections and things,

242
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,240
Speaker 10: as well as productivity, and I think that that's going

243
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:55,520
Speaker 10: to continue. So it's more of a reallocation than it

244
00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:00,480
Speaker 10: is basically a setback on investments. And meanwhile, we're still

245
00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 10: continue to see people responding with services, travel, all that

246
00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:10,520
Speaker 10: type of spending is going on. I mean, cross border

247
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:16,040
Speaker 10: has just basically been picking up modestly, but picking up

248
00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:22,440
Speaker 10: consistently since the pandemic has been defeated, and we continue

249
00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,679
Speaker 10: to see those trends. So I think the Fed wants

250
00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:29,520
Speaker 10: the economy to slow down. They obviously don't want a recession,

251
00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:35,080
Speaker 10: but right now we're looking at moderating growth. But I

252
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:39,040
Speaker 10: think you haven't yet seen those building blocks for our

253
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:40,000
Speaker 10: true recession.

254
00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:42,760
Speaker 1: We can circle back to some of the main points.

255
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,640
Speaker 1: I just wanted to go out into left field a

256
00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,280
Speaker 1: little bit. We know that China's dumbling, and then we

257
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:51,199
Speaker 1: have like these events last week with Wagner Group in Russia.

258
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 1: I mean, what if you have Jenny progosion, would have

259
00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:59,280
Speaker 1: taken his tanks and such all the way up to

260
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,800
Speaker 1: you know, is that the type of thing that you know,

261
00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,319
Speaker 1: we just don't really plan for. It's it's really quite

262
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 1: a you know, something that you kind of put on

263
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,400
Speaker 1: your list of fears, but you know you can't actually

264
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 1: plan for it exactly.

265
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 10: Brian. You think back if we would have had this

266
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,480
Speaker 10: interview a week ago, if someone would have predicted that,

267
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,960
Speaker 10: they would have been probably laughed off of the radio.

268
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,920
Speaker 1: Well, nobody can predict black Swan events, but you know

269
00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,280
Speaker 1: they're out there. But in that particular case, would that

270
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,880
Speaker 1: have been a major negative or do you think that,

271
00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:35,960
Speaker 1: you know, it might have served as a positive.

272
00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,320
Speaker 10: I'm afraid that it would have been a negative, primarily

273
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,160
Speaker 10: because when we've seen the balls of dictators in a

274
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,920
Speaker 10: lot of these countries, if you talk about Egypt or

275
00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:50,680
Speaker 10: Libya or a number of other places, chaos is not

276
00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:55,440
Speaker 10: necessarily positive for world economic growth. So even though there's

277
00:14:55,520 --> 00:15:00,160
Speaker 10: one evil person possibly replaced by another evil person, and

278
00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,200
Speaker 10: there's very little chance there will be a stable and

279
00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,960
Speaker 10: change that would be easily done, and I think the

280
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 10: ramifications of it you just don't know, but it probably

281
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:13,640
Speaker 10: would not be good.

282
00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:18,720
Speaker 11: Well, I guess it just remains to see how long

283
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,200
Speaker 11: I put nineally last. Because we had guests on yesterday

284
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 11: suggesting that this could be the start of a well,

285
00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:29,240
Speaker 11: a huge kind of set of I guess emotive backlash

286
00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:31,280
Speaker 11: against him, and they could be for the coups down

287
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,280
Speaker 11: the line. Tom, I want to get you back to

288
00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:35,840
Speaker 11: the market, so and I want to get you back

289
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,800
Speaker 11: to and the FED. It does seem from our latest

290
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 11: poll that we did that the Fed's message is finally

291
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,800
Speaker 11: getting through that there will be no interest rate cuts

292
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 11: by the end of the year, even though some had

293
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,000
Speaker 11: even earlier this month thought that they would be.

294
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 10: You know, we agree with what the current polling is

295
00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:02,680
Speaker 10: coming in. There's always a question about trying to pick

296
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 10: that moment when things actually change, and it's very dangerous.

297
00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 10: There's the old cliche about catching a falling knife. The

298
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,720
Speaker 10: FED had given you one specific message over and over

299
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 10: and over again. It will change at some time in

300
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 10: the future, but right now that is the message. And

301
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 10: so we've felt all along that we're cutting interest rates

302
00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 10: at this point or even in the next few months

303
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 10: next six months are probably not in the carts. They

304
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 10: are going to wait until they actually see physical daily

305
00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 10: results of their policies, and we know there's a leg

306
00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 10: and so there's a fair chance they will wait and

307
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 10: it will be overreacting when they do. But right now

308
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 10: there's a very very little chance that they're going to

309
00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:56,360
Speaker 10: be cutting rates shortly. So swan event like you said,

310
00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:00,000
Speaker 10: could do that, but until that not very little chance.

311
00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:02,800
Speaker 1: You started off by saying that you thought the trend

312
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: of megacap would continue into the second half of the year.

313
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:10,040
Speaker 1: Is there another unassailable trend that you think investors could

314
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 1: benefit from in your view, Well.

315
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 10: It's great when you line up a cyclical trend with

316
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 10: a secular trend and you're still seeing some real growth

317
00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 10: in the financial transaction processing things. The cross border transactions

318
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 10: is just amplifying the fact that we're moving to a

319
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 10: digital economy for monetary transactions. The World Cup, for example,

320
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:44,840
Speaker 10: the Women's World Cup down in Southeast Asia. We think

321
00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 10: that has some potential to just amplify a trend that

322
00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 10: you've been seeing build and build and build since the

323
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:57,040
Speaker 10: pandemic cross border transactions. People traveling around the world. It's

324
00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,440
Speaker 10: been picking up everything we hear from the airlines. It's

325
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 10: still very strong trend going.

326
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,399
Speaker 1: For the immediate does that translate to master Guard, Visa,

327
00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 1: PayPal companies like that exactly.

328
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 10: We think you know, when you think about MasterCard and Visa,

329
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 10: they provide a lot of the backbone for a lot

330
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,239
Speaker 10: of the other financial tech companies as well as what

331
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 10: you see go through them directly. MasterCard right now, for example,

332
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,680
Speaker 10: is almost the third of the revenues coming from services

333
00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:32,040
Speaker 10: like data and cyber and things like that. But the

334
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 10: cross border area was the weak area that was taking

335
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 10: the longest to snap back, and now it's coming back

336
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 10: very strong.

337
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,680
Speaker 1: So overall view, you got the S and P five

338
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 1: forty three twenty eight here, what do you think we

339
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 1: finished the year? Just very short fifteen seconds.

340
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 10: Oh, we have a lot of difficulty predicting that, but

341
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 10: I think it's going to be higher than it is now,

342
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,119
Speaker 10: and I think that we have a fair chance accelerating

343
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,640
Speaker 10: economy and second half of the year, and then I'll

344
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 10: translate into a broadening of the stock market and the

345
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 10: higher returns.

346
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,920
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on this

347
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,639
Speaker 1: story's making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street.

348
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every day, on Apple,

349
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

350
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each day on Bloomberg eleven

351
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,119
Speaker 1: three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to

352
00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,360
Speaker 1: one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh sixty one in Boston,

353
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,199
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco.

354
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

355
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:39,400
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

356
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 1: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app,

357
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 1: Sirius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on

358
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. I'm Brian Curtis.

359
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 2: And I'm Doug Krisner. Join us again tomorrow for all

360
00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 2: the news you need to start your day right here

361
00:19:54,640 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia