Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea on an odd Monday, torrential rains here
Speaker 2: in New York and for all of you, particularly to
Speaker 2: the southwest of US, we're thinking of you. Really brutal
Speaker 2: weather out there, but we say good morning on an
Speaker 2: eventful week. The FED meeting on Wednesday, the FED deicides
Speaker 2: will be at one thirty looking forward to that. Have
Speaker 2: no idea how important this meeting is. They do the
Speaker 2: dots and all that, but given the geopolitics, the political economy,
Speaker 2: the economic politics of the moment, I have no clue
Speaker 2: what's in store this week. What I know is Julia
Speaker 2: Cornado is very, very good at macro policy perspectives. Here's
Speaker 2: Julia Cornado framing out that FED meeting.
Speaker 1: A rate cut isn't going to be the antidote to
Speaker 1: all the worries that investors and businesses have right now.
Speaker 1: There is a tremendous number of sources of uncertainty right now.
Speaker 1: Trade policy is one of them, Immigration is another, Cuts
Speaker 1: and cuts and government contracts is another. Reshaping global alliances
Speaker 1: is another. So I think there's just many sources of uncertainty.
Speaker 1: They collide with each other. It's very difficult for businesses
Speaker 1: to make longer term plans. Of course, everybody, we all
Speaker 1: get up in the morning and go to work and
Speaker 1: run our businesses and do our jobs. But are you
Speaker 1: going to make the bigger decisions about hiring, about cap x,
Speaker 1: about moving forward with strategic initiatives in this environment? It's difficult.
Speaker 1: It's challenging. So Noah, rate cut isn't the antidote to
Speaker 1: the uncertainty that we face.
Speaker 2: Julian card out macropolicy perspectives. We're going to get a
Speaker 2: lot of different opinions here on what the FED should do,
Speaker 2: but I'm much more interested in the weight the importance
Speaker 2: of the FED right now given the massive policy shocks
Speaker 2: that we see not only here but early around the world.
Speaker 2: Eric Belchunas was into day riveting always we bust as
Speaker 2: chops and there's like, you know, there's a comedy to it.
Speaker 2: But he is the heavyweight on thinking about these new
Speaker 2: fangled things exchange traded funds. Here is Eric Belchunas on
Speaker 2: the dominant low cost vanguard and the idea their effect
Speaker 2: on the economy. The vanguard put I.
Speaker 3: Would call it the vanguard BID. I also think that
Speaker 3: the reason it's immovable is people, especially older people with
Speaker 3: a lot of money. They they dated active managers in
Speaker 3: the eighties and nineties and they have found some luck,
Speaker 3: and then the ad manager underperformed. When they finally found
Speaker 3: a Vanguard index fund or a black Rock index fund,
Speaker 3: they were like, I'm done, I'm off the market. I'm
Speaker 3: getting married. And they're happily. They feel like they have
Speaker 3: the best deal in their personal account and there's just
Speaker 3: nothing that's going to get them to come out of that. Now,
Speaker 3: let's talk about maybe a two thousands where you have
Speaker 3: the market's flat over a decade. Anything's possible. But until
Speaker 3: we see you know, I'm talking a year, I just
Speaker 3: don't think the Vanguard put is it's immovable, at least
Speaker 3: for a year. Beyond that, we'll see. But that's why
Speaker 3: we're only in a couple months. That's why I really
Speaker 3: try to take the other direction here. And the thing
Speaker 3: is spy taking in money also shows the trading crowd
Speaker 3: buying the dip. So that's why, you know, I haven't
Speaker 3: seen anything that ties with the headlines tightly yet. I
Speaker 3: think it's algos and rage selling.
Speaker 2: Eric belchunas there. I think I was filling out my
Speaker 2: bracket when he was talking about that, and you know
Speaker 2: it's like you're dating and then you get married. I
Speaker 2: guess that's, you know, a good investment analogy over the
Speaker 2: span of decades that we could use as well on
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