WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Julia Coronado & Eric Balchunas

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea on an odd Monday, torrential rains here

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<v Speaker 2>in New York and for all of you, particularly to

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<v Speaker 2>the southwest of US, we're thinking of you. Really brutal

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<v Speaker 2>weather out there, but we say good morning on an

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<v Speaker 2>eventful week. The FED meeting on Wednesday, the FED deicides

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<v Speaker 2>will be at one thirty looking forward to that. Have

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<v Speaker 2>no idea how important this meeting is. They do the

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<v Speaker 2>dots and all that, but given the geopolitics, the political economy,

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<v Speaker 2>the economic politics of the moment, I have no clue

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<v Speaker 2>what's in store this week. What I know is Julia

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<v Speaker 2>Cornado is very, very good at macro policy perspectives. Here's

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<v Speaker 2>Julia Cornado framing out that FED meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>A rate cut isn't going to be the antidote to

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<v Speaker 1>all the worries that investors and businesses have right now.

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<v Speaker 1>There is a tremendous number of sources of uncertainty right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Trade policy is one of them, Immigration is another, Cuts

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<v Speaker 1>and cuts and government contracts is another. Reshaping global alliances

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<v Speaker 1>is another. So I think there's just many sources of uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>They collide with each other. It's very difficult for businesses

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<v Speaker 1>to make longer term plans. Of course, everybody, we all

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<v Speaker 1>get up in the morning and go to work and

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<v Speaker 1>run our businesses and do our jobs. But are you

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<v Speaker 1>going to make the bigger decisions about hiring, about cap x,

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<v Speaker 1>about moving forward with strategic initiatives in this environment? It's difficult.

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<v Speaker 1>It's challenging. So Noah, rate cut isn't the antidote to

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<v Speaker 1>the uncertainty that we face.

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<v Speaker 2>Julian card out macropolicy perspectives. We're going to get a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of different opinions here on what the FED should do,

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<v Speaker 2>but I'm much more interested in the weight the importance

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<v Speaker 2>of the FED right now given the massive policy shocks

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<v Speaker 2>that we see not only here but early around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Eric Belchunas was into day riveting always we bust as

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<v Speaker 2>chops and there's like, you know, there's a comedy to it.

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<v Speaker 2>But he is the heavyweight on thinking about these new

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<v Speaker 2>fangled things exchange traded funds. Here is Eric Belchunas on

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<v Speaker 2>the dominant low cost vanguard and the idea their effect

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<v Speaker 2>on the economy. The vanguard put I.

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<v Speaker 3>Would call it the vanguard BID. I also think that

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<v Speaker 3>the reason it's immovable is people, especially older people with

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of money. They they dated active managers in

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<v Speaker 3>the eighties and nineties and they have found some luck,

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<v Speaker 3>and then the ad manager underperformed. When they finally found

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<v Speaker 3>a Vanguard index fund or a black Rock index fund,

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<v Speaker 3>they were like, I'm done, I'm off the market. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>getting married. And they're happily. They feel like they have

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<v Speaker 3>the best deal in their personal account and there's just

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<v Speaker 3>nothing that's going to get them to come out of that. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>let's talk about maybe a two thousands where you have

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<v Speaker 3>the market's flat over a decade. Anything's possible. But until

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<v Speaker 3>we see you know, I'm talking a year, I just

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<v Speaker 3>don't think the Vanguard put is it's immovable, at least

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<v Speaker 3>for a year. Beyond that, we'll see. But that's why

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<v Speaker 3>we're only in a couple months. That's why I really

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<v Speaker 3>try to take the other direction here. And the thing

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<v Speaker 3>is spy taking in money also shows the trading crowd

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<v Speaker 3>buying the dip. So that's why, you know, I haven't

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<v Speaker 3>seen anything that ties with the headlines tightly yet. I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's algos and rage selling.

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<v Speaker 2>Eric belchunas there. I think I was filling out my

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<v Speaker 2>bracket when he was talking about that, and you know

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<v Speaker 2>it's like you're dating and then you get married. I

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<v Speaker 2>guess that's, you know, a good investment analogy over the

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<v Speaker 2>span of decades that we could use as well on

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<v Speaker 2>your commute across the nation, Apple Car Play, Android Auto,

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<v Speaker 2>Good Morning Night ninety nine point one in Washington, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>eleventh three to zero in New York, Good Morning ninety

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<v Speaker 2>two nine FM in Boston. Humbled by the response in Boston,

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<v Speaker 2>thank you for that. On YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts

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<v Speaker 2>for the show and of course, single best idea out

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