1 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:09,719 Speaker 2: Let me tell you we have a new star. 3 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 3: A star is born Elon up On Mars Juson Kennedy. 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 4: He is the Thomas Edison plus plus plus of our age. 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 2: Probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity. 6 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 3: I feel for the guy. 7 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,440 Speaker 2: I would say ninety eight percent really appreciate what he does. 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 3: But those two percent that are nasty, they are I'll 9 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 3: pit in fourth post. 10 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:32,520 Speaker 2: We are meant for great things in the United States 11 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 2: of America, and Elon reminds us of that we don't 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 2: have a fourth branch of governments called Elon Musk. Welcome 13 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: to Elon Ing, Bloomberg's weekly podcast about Elon Musk. It's Tuesday, 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: March twenty fifth. I'm your host, David Papadopolis. This week 15 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: we're talking about a place that doesn't usually come up 16 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 2: on the show, Wisconsin, where Elon's pack is poor bring 17 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 2: millions of dollars into the state Supreme Court race. Now 18 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 2: the campaign has become a key early test of the 19 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 2: electorate's mood in the wake of the twenty twenty four vote, 20 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 2: and Elon is using a very similar playbook to the 21 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:13,919 Speaker 2: one he used then. But will it work this time? 22 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 2: And then we'll talk Tesla with Steve Mann, an analyst 23 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,839 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Intelligence. After cratering for a week, the stock 24 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,119 Speaker 2: has finally started to bounce back, and Man believes there's 25 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: a much needed rebound coming in the company's sales. But 26 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:31,639 Speaker 2: joining me now to talk Wisconsin politics is another man, 27 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 2: Ted Man, a reporter in our Washington bureau. Hello, Ted, Hi, 28 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 2: thanks for having me, And of course we have our regulars, 29 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 2: Max Schafkin and Dana Hall. Max Eloser, Hello, David, Dana, 30 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: how are you. I'm good, excellent, excellent, Okay, Ted. So 31 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 2: you know I have a long standing policy of not 32 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 2: fouling Wisconsin Supreme Court race votes closely. So tell this 33 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 2: is just for decades. This has been a policy of mine, 34 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 2: dating back like the eighties. 35 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: What do you have against Wisconsin jurisprudence? 36 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 2: So tell me and our listeners what we need to 37 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 2: know about this race. 38 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: I mean, the main thing you need to know about 39 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: the Wisconsin Supreme Court race on the elections on April first, 40 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: is that it is already the most expensive judicial election 41 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: in the history of the United States. More than seventy 42 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: three million dollars has been spent, and the biggest spender 43 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: in that seventy three is Elon Musk. He's given Brennan 44 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 1: Center I think has more than fourteen million to various 45 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: groups who are putting money behind the Republican Brad Schimmel, 46 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: who is trying to defeat the Democrat Susan Crawford. That 47 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: would give conservatives a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. 48 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,760 Speaker 2: Okay, so the court. The balance at stake here is 49 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 2: which side effectively controls the court once again. 50 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: And for those who are dedicated followers of Wisconsin Supreme 51 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:54,080 Speaker 1: Court news, it's yeah, this is a this is a 52 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: Supreme court where this sort of this contest between conservatives 53 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:02,119 Speaker 1: and liberals potentially holds huge importance for things like how 54 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 1: they manage their election laws in a critical swing state, 55 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: for abortion policy, for a number of other huge social 56 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: political issues. 57 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 4: So in the House, like the House of Representatives, right, 58 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 4: I mean, and we. 59 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 2: Have a hold on we actually have Elon talking about 60 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: the race and just how important it is. 61 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,399 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's just worth makes make sure that 62 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 5: you know, people in Wisconsin understand like this Supreme Court race, 63 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 5: you know, as has a big effect on the House 64 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 5: of Representatives and House Representatives is raised it and margins 65 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 5: so effectively. Like, the reason I'm bringing this to people's 66 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 5: attention is because this really has implications for Wisconsin, but 67 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 5: for the whole country. So that's why I really urging 68 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 5: you know, please, if anyone, if you have any friends, 69 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 5: family in Wisconsin, send them a note and ask them 70 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 5: to vote early for Justice Shimmel. And because this actually, 71 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 5: this this selection is going to affect everyone in the 72 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 5: United States. 73 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 2: So ted Elon said something there that Dana had just 74 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 2: said a minute ago, which is, this has huge bearing 75 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 2: on the House of Representatives. Sorry, help me out tell 76 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 2: me why. 77 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: Well, because redistricting is done by the state, and so 78 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: a future redistricting in Wisconsin. 79 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,159 Speaker 2: Is there already one being planned or in the case 80 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 2: of if it should come. 81 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: Up, I mean, yes, the redistricting will come up. And 82 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: so the issue here is do you have a conservative 83 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: majority at the Supreme Court level in the state who 84 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: will ultimately probably be the arbiter of. 85 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,040 Speaker 2: What plan how you're trying to jerrymander one ware or 86 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 2: the exactly. 87 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 1: So basically what he's saying is the Republicans need to 88 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: win this judicial race because that is what is going 89 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 1: to enable them to select a favorable redistricting plan in 90 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: this critical swing state and to boost the potential majority 91 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: of the Republicans so that they can hold the House. 92 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 6: These redistricting plans often end up in the courts. And 93 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 6: then the other thing is there's like a symbolic quality. 94 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 6: This is the first election since November. If you were 95 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 6: a big mega donor like Elon Musk, this is the 96 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 6: only game in town right now. 97 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,599 Speaker 2: And as far as like, where's nowhere else your money? 98 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: Exactly totally, And it's like Shimmel has been campaigning with 99 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: an inflatable Trump, and it's also a referendum on Musk too, 100 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: Like Crawford has been calling Shimmel elon. 101 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 2: So he like walks around, he carries it under his 102 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 2: arm or something. 103 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: Everybody's at a rally. I no, I think it was. 104 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: I'm imagining. 105 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 2: It's too big. It's so big you can't carry it 106 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 2: under your arm. 107 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: Not a portable Trump. 108 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 2: Thank god. 109 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 4: It's also super interesting because Trump is not on the ballot. 110 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 4: Typically turnout is low in these kinds of elections, but 111 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: apparently turnout is very high right now. Spaces that must 112 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 4: coast it over the weekend. He said that Democratic churnout 113 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 4: was higher than they wanted it to be. And this 114 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 4: is to a Ched's point, this is really a referendum 115 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 4: on Elon. I mean, Elon is now the public face 116 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 4: of Doge. He's out there with his chainsaw. Every veteran 117 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 4: or personal social security or a fan of bulk education 118 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 4: or someone who likes their National park system like now 119 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 4: knows that like Elon and Doge are the face of 120 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 4: this dismantling of the federal government. And so I think 121 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 4: that for Elon it's like it's a real test of 122 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 4: his America pack and they're staying power in these down 123 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 4: ballot races. You know, he has said when Trump was 124 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 4: running like that his pack is here to stay, and 125 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 4: he's going to be focusing on judicial races and district 126 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 4: attorney races, and this is the first big race that 127 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 4: we're seeing him wait into. 128 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, Ted, isn't that the risk here as 129 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 2: Dan is getting at that in throwing himself into this race, 130 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 2: as he has mosque and throwing this much money at it. Yeah, 131 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: maybe the money goes a long way, and maybe it 132 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 2: helps you, you know, lure some voters your way, but 133 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 2: you also unwittingly kind of turn the vote into a 134 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 2: referendum on you, Elon Musk at a time when you're 135 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 2: not exactly the most popular person in America. 136 00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: I think that's definitely a risk, although we don't quite 137 00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: know how much voters are going to pay attention to that, 138 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 1: or how how long their memories will be. It's also 139 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: the case that as as Dan is saying, he's seeing 140 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: these opportunities to throw a ton of money into a 141 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: contest that has great political outcomes or there's where there's 142 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: going to be tremendous political ramifications. And it is a 143 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: ton of money. It is the most expensive judicial race ever, 144 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: but it's also not a lot of money. It's the 145 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: richest guy in the world, you know, and it's fourteen 146 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: million bucks. You know. It's a rounding era for him, 147 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: and it's so in a way, it's it's kind of 148 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: similar to what others have said about him and Trump 149 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: in the in the presidential election. Yeah, he spent two 150 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty million or a little shy of that, 151 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 1: but that isn't that much to him, and if you 152 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:45,119 Speaker 1: look at what it got him, it was a pretty 153 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 1: good investment. 154 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 6: Yeah. 155 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 2: Isn't that the old, uh, you know expression that you know, 156 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 2: it's ultimately kind of depressing how little money for someone 157 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 2: as wealthy as these people, you know, to effectively buy 158 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 2: a politician. It's just not all that much money. 159 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 4: Wisconsin is also super interesting because remember in November, of 160 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 4: all the seven swing states, Trump's margin of victory in 161 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 4: Wisconsin was the narrowest. So this is a blue collar 162 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 4: state where you know, Trump did not win by a 163 00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 4: ton and the Wisconsin Dems are very organized and they 164 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 4: are really making Elon the focus of this campaign. It's 165 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 4: not really about Shimal and Crawford. It's about Elon and 166 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 4: his money and oligarchy like running the race, and you 167 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 4: know Elon is doing his same playbook. You can sign 168 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 4: a petition and get a hundred. 169 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:33,359 Speaker 6: Bucks, and yeah, I have a lot of family in Wisconsin. 170 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 6: My mother lives there, my sister in law lives there, 171 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 6: my wife grew up there. And I got a text 172 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 6: from somebody I know well asking me, Hey, Max, how 173 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,599 Speaker 6: do I get my hundred bucks from Elon Musk. 174 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: They went to you because you have the because of 175 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 2: the show. Yeah, because of the show exactly. 176 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 6: And the intent, as I understood it from the question 177 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 6: was to not to sign it as a as a 178 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 6: Committee supporter of Shimmel, but as a as a thing 179 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 6: that was being passed around by various now I explained 180 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 6: that the point of these petitions is to collect emails. 181 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 6: So if you you're what you're effectively doing is selling 182 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,559 Speaker 6: your contact information to Elon Musk for one hundred dollars. 183 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 6: But if you are not likely to vote for Elon 184 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 6: Musk aligned Republicans, then your contact contact information isn't necessarily worth. 185 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 2: That much to set individuals get there. 186 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 6: I have not fired up, but I will. But it 187 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 6: does seem like, you know, this was interesting because during 188 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 6: the presidential election, to sign the petition and collect the money, 189 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 6: you had to be a registered Republican. This one is 190 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 6: open to anyone who is registered in Wisconsin, and so 191 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 6: you could imagine this costing a lot of money. I mean, 192 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 6: the New York Times reported that America Pak has five 193 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 6: hundred canvassers in the state. It's a big staff of. 194 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 2: People like he is. 195 00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:04,599 Speaker 6: He is going big here, and if the Republican underperforms, 196 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 6: I do think that's gonna Look, this is gonna be 197 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:09,880 Speaker 6: a test one way or another. If if Shimmel does well, 198 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 6: it's gonna we're gonna say, like Wow, like this America 199 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 6: Pack thing, it wasn't They weren't just a one hit wonder. 200 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 6: They are capable of doing, you know, effective campaigning. And 201 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 6: if it if it doesn't do well, I'm not sure 202 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:26,200 Speaker 6: it's necessarily an indictment of America Pack's ability to campaign. 203 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 6: But it does look like wow, like the Elon Musk 204 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 6: brand may be pretty divisive. This might not be the 205 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 6: best thing for a candidate in a swing state to 206 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:34,559 Speaker 6: be allied. 207 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 2: At this at this moment, right now now, Dana Max 208 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 2: says that the pack Elon's Pack is going all in 209 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 2: on this, and I guess I wonder if you have 210 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:45,280 Speaker 2: any sense at all if he's going himself, if he's 211 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 2: throwing himself into this, like is he sleeping somewhere in Wisconsin? 212 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 2: He's sleeping in you know, the fifty yard line of 213 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 2: lambeau Field. 214 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 4: And no, no, no, I mean so far he's basically 215 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 4: still been in DC, although what I checked last night, 216 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,719 Speaker 4: his plate is now in San Jose. He has not 217 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 4: shown up in Wisconsin yet. But the fact that he 218 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 4: took time out of his weekend when he was basically 219 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 4: traveling with Trump to do this Twitter or this x 220 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 4: spaces with Shimmel for over an hour. I mean his 221 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 4: time is very valuable. He is a huge megaphone that 222 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 4: was a very well attended spaces and just like everyone 223 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 4: is always competing for fractions of Elon's time, the fact 224 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 4: that he is dedicating time to this race as well 225 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 4: as money is significant. He doesn't need to go to 226 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 4: Wisconsin himself, Like, I don't know what that would accomplish. 227 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 6: Well, I don't know that's true, Dan, because like when 228 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 6: you know, talking in sort of reporting on what was 229 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 6: really important in the America pack thing in Pennsylvania, I 230 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 6: do think Elon Musk's presence in the state made a difference. 231 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: And it doesn't make anyone spend like weeks at a time. Yeah, 232 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 2: I mean he did rallies. 233 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 6: He made you know, like there was there were there 234 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 6: were quite a few kind of in person rallies. 235 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 4: He's way more polarizing now, yes, I mean in Pennsylvania 236 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 4: in the fall, he was like he had he could 237 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 4: like bring like the young men who were like Elon interested, 238 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 4: but they canto. 239 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 2: He doesn't still lure those people. 240 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 6: The question is like, and this would be a question 241 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 6: even if Elon were not involved like Trump. Since Trump's 242 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 6: rise in the Republican Party, there have been turnout issues 243 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 6: when Trump is not on the ballot, and and Trump 244 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 6: is not on the ballot, So like the do these 245 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 6: voters who feel like a profound, you know, personal connection 246 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 6: to Donald Trump and his movement, are they willing to 247 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 6: turn out? 248 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 2: Well, it's the large, inflatable Trump. 249 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's why you need the inflatable Trump. That's why 250 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 6: the endorsement matters even more. 251 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: To the point, like the America pack mailers say President 252 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: Donald Trump needs your vote, and they say with Susan 253 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: Crawford is going to stop President Trump's agenda. So to 254 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: that point, yeah, they're trying to make this. They're trying 255 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: to put him on the ballot because they feel like 256 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 1: that's what will actually drive the turnout and tilt the race. 257 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 2: So, Ted, I wonder if, or I guess I should say, 258 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 2: I wonder how much we can read into the outcome 259 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 2: of this vote in terms of looking ahead to the 260 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 2: mid terms eighteen months out or god forbid, looking ahead 261 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 2: to twenty twenty eight. We seem pretty far from those things. 262 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:29,240 Speaker 2: This is just a Supreme Court race in one state that, 263 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 2: as we said at the top of the show, we 264 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 2: don't typically talk too much about how great a barometer 265 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: is it for the electorate's mood across the country right now, 266 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 2: I don't. 267 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: Know that I could speak to the electorate's mood, but 268 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 1: I know some people who will be paying very close 269 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: attention to Crawford's campaign, and that's every consultant who works 270 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: for the Democratic Party, which is currently just a trash 271 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: fire of recrimination and doubt. And you know ageist arguments. 272 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,080 Speaker 2: Like they're looking for they're looking for a winning formula. 273 00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 1: Is that what you're saying, They're looking for any strategy. 274 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: And if they see that billboard saying don't let eon 275 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: Musk by the Supreme Court seem to work, you better 276 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: believe that that's going to find its way into every 277 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 1: single midtermad Right Like, he's made himself the largest figure 278 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: in the political landscape other than Trump, and if it 279 00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: looks like throwing things at him is good for you electorally. 280 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: Based on what happens on April first, I got to 281 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: think that the default strategy going into the midterms will 282 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: be bashing Musk. 283 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 2: So Max, it's hard not to notice, and that he 284 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 2: suddenly this is Wisconsin gambit is coming up as Doze 285 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 2: seems to be slowing and petering out a bit, and 286 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 2: I wonder if that is that just merely a coincidence 287 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 2: and just just one of these things that hey, these 288 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 2: two things are happening simultaneously and one has no bearing 289 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 2: in the other, or is he shifting attention elsewhere as Indeed, 290 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 2: it seems like Doze is being a little bit handcuffed 291 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 2: and limited in what it's what it's being able to do. 292 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 6: Just because we I've seen a lot of legal challenges, 293 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 6: legal challenges. I think, first of all, Elon Musk doesn't 294 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 6: necessarily have like the most He's not the most focused 295 00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 6: guy in the world. Like you could imagine him kind 296 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 6: of his attention wandering regardless of like what was happening 297 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 6: in the courts or what was happening in public opinion, 298 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 6: or what the president was saying. But also, you're right, 299 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 6: there are lots of reasons why if Elon Musk cares 300 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 6: about his like reputation and his and the and the 301 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 6: effect he has on elections and so on, he would 302 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 6: deemphasize DOGE because a lot of this stuff seems at 303 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:38,560 Speaker 6: least so the idea of cutting government I think is popular, 304 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 6: but the Doge execution has been very very unpopular. There's 305 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 6: been a steady drumbeat of kind of problematic stories that 306 00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 6: don't necessarily help Trump like this, you know, these stories 307 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 6: about Social Security and wait times on Social Security? 308 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 2: What exactly what do those things look like? 309 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:01,120 Speaker 6: Well, so they in cutting cast right. There are there 310 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 6: are reports anyway that like wait times to get to 311 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 6: talk to somebody from the Social Security Administration have gone 312 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 6: way up that like people, Yeah, I talked about this 313 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 6: last week, Like the customer experience has has degraded as 314 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 6: you'd expect it would if you if you you know, 315 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 6: massively cut spending. And then you also have you know, 316 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 6: Musk going on Rogan saying social Security is a Ponzi scheme, 317 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 6: like that is going to play in you doubt it's 318 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 6: a I just know for a fact that Democrats are 319 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 6: going to use that over and over and over again, 320 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 6: just like they're going to use Howard Lunnox comments uh 321 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 6: from from last week, uh also kind of implying that 322 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 6: people might, you know, maybe maybe some Social Security payments 323 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 6: won't go out or whatever. It's no big deal. So 324 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 6: it's it's just it's like, this is not a good 325 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 6: political story. And and so I think there are reasons 326 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 6: for it, although I don't know. Like Danna said, Elon 327 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 6: had signaled he was going to do this from the jump. 328 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 6: We knew he was. He thought America packed, you know, 329 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 6: did well. I think objective they did accomplish a lot. 330 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 6: So in that sense, like, who knows, maybe he'd be 331 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 6: doing this either way. 332 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 2: If you're saying coming out of November, he was immediately saying, Hey, 333 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 2: this thing isn't going away. Yeah, We're going to be 334 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 2: bigger and badder than ever. 335 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 6: Like on election night, like but even before the results, 336 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 6: he was signaling this kind of thing, and since then 337 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,359 Speaker 6: he has continued to signal it along was saying he's 338 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 6: going to play in the midterms. So so again, I 339 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 6: think it would be surprising at this point if he 340 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 6: pulled out. Although if if the Republicans get absolutely shellacked 341 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 6: on April first, then I think we have to start asking, like, no, 342 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 6: does Zelon start to say, like, hey, maybe I didn't 343 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 6: want to spend fifteen million dollars on petitions or whatever. 344 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 1: Could I just just to pivots the doge in the 345 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: popularity of what they're doing. I think it's absolutely the 346 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,200 Speaker 1: case that their execution or the sort of immediate effect 347 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: of the cuts and the sort of disorder that they're 348 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 1: sowing is an issue politically for the popularity of what 349 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 1: they're doing. But we have also written about the goal 350 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: that the actual target that they're pointing at musk saying 351 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: he's going to cut a trillion dollars out of the 352 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: budget in a single year, which is like that is 353 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: Margaret Thatcher level austerity in terms of the reduction and 354 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: GDP on a faster timeline, and the administration if you 355 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: listen closely, keeps kind of waffling on this. They keep 356 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: saying there will be a period of pain, We're going 357 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: to have to take some medicine best and is comparing 358 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: it to detoxing on you're trying to get off of 359 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 1: a substance. And then like Stephen Myron, I think the 360 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 1: interview was yesterday, was kind of like not quite willing 361 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: to say, oh, yeah, there will be some pain for 362 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,399 Speaker 1: doing this thing that we're trying to do. And I 363 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 1: think that even like that's part of the problem for 364 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: DOGE is they have ostensibly the authority to go do 365 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: this incredibly aggressive thing that is for you know that 366 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 1: the ECON guys really think is a good strategy to 367 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 1: drive future growth, but there doesn't seem to be total 368 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: commitment to the pain that it will cause. 369 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: All right, we listen, Ted, this was great. We appreciate 370 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 2: having you on, and depending on how this vote goes 371 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 2: in Wisconsin, perhaps you'll have to come back on and 372 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 2: tell us all about it. 373 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 1: Sounds great, I'd love to. 374 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 2: Okay, now we're joined by Steve Man, an analyst at 375 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence who covers Tesla for us. Okay, Steve, so, 376 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 2: as we were preparing for the show, your report hit 377 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 2: and it really caught our eye. You are forecasting a 378 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:32,880 Speaker 2: rebound in Tesla sales, in car sales, and you're expecting 379 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 2: it to happen pretty quickly coming up here in the 380 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 2: second quarter. You know, for us watching Tesla's being burnt 381 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 2: and sales plunging across the world, it's kind of a 382 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,159 Speaker 2: little bit hard to see, or at least for me, 383 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 2: it is. So lay things out as you see them, 384 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 2: and how we get from deep decline in sales right 385 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 2: now to a pickup in the second quarter. 386 00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: Yeah. 387 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 3: Sure, I'm not brushing off some of the the politics 388 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 3: that Elon Musk is in and the reaction from from 389 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 3: the public, but you know, from my standpoint I do. 390 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 3: I mean the bus business fundamentals have you know bottom okay, uh, 391 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,639 Speaker 3: you know, there's been a lot of complaint the marketplace 392 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,439 Speaker 3: in terms of you know, when is Elon, Musk and 393 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 3: Tesla are going to roll out a new vehicle there 394 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,440 Speaker 3: the cars are getting old. Well, they launched a Highland 395 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 3: Model three. It's not you know, it's not the best 396 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 3: selling car. The Model why is the best selling car. 397 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,480 Speaker 3: And they're actually rolling a new one out as we 398 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 3: speak in March. They did that a little bit earlier, 399 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 3: and so you know, from personal experience, you know, I 400 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 3: actually worked at the auto industry for a while. You know, 401 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 3: rolling out vehicles is not that easy. It's an eight 402 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 3: hundred pound gorilla. So you know, March they come out 403 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 3: with a new car. Not surprised, not surprised that the 404 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 3: you know, old one uh is you know rolling off 405 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 3: and not selling very well. They shut down the plant 406 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,880 Speaker 3: by the way in Berlin and Shanghau, and they're doing 407 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 3: the same thing at Fremont to actually change over the 408 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 3: tooling for the new vehicle. So our view basically is 409 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 3: that you know, we're probably going to see an inflection 410 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 3: point in the second quarter of this year. You know, 411 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 3: April sales may come up a little bit weak because 412 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 3: they're ramping up vehicles, but beyond that, I think we'll 413 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 3: see improvement. 414 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,199 Speaker 2: So you do believe that this rollout alone, in this 415 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: refresh of this model HI is enough to offset I mean, 416 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 2: so I think you're thinking second quarter sales are going 417 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,679 Speaker 2: to be up something like six percent or so something 418 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: like that. 419 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 3: That's right. 420 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 2: You know, we've been seeing some of the numbers coming 421 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 2: out for the first quarter. They're not just down, they 422 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: are down with the capital D so to go all 423 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 2: the way up to positive, even if it's just mid 424 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 2: single digits, it's a pretty big it's quite a leap, 425 00:21:58,200 --> 00:21:59,000 Speaker 2: right right. 426 00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:00,720 Speaker 4: But David, I think part of the reason why it's 427 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 4: why the sales are down is because of the supply. 428 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 4: The factories are offline. So you're seeing some of the 429 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 4: analyst reports coming out saying that, yeah, Q one is 430 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 4: going to be lousy, but it's because like literally they're 431 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 4: not making cars right now as they're they're turning over 432 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 4: the production lines to the refresh model. Why at all 433 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 4: four plants, you know, Fremont, Austin, Berlin and Shanghai. 434 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 6: You know, the kind of political story and the story 435 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 6: of Elon Musk's degrading brand, at least with the left, 436 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 6: is a story that is has been going on for years. 437 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,360 Speaker 6: And I think to Steve's point, a couple of years ago, 438 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 6: Elon Musk was talking about fifty percent year over year 439 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 6: growth as like as far as I could see, and 440 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 6: to go from there to maybe six percent is a drop. 441 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 3: Like even if we. 442 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 6: See, even if we see the sales come back the 443 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,120 Speaker 6: way we're expecting, like, it doesn't mean that the brand 444 00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 6: is improved or it could continue to of course, like 445 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 6: Trump is gonna keep trying to do stuff. I think, 446 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 6: like if public polling, historical public polling is any guide, 447 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 6: he will become more unpopular as the months and years 448 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 6: go on. So like there's a chance that the Tesla 449 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:18,399 Speaker 6: brand could degrade even further than it than it already has. Steve, 450 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 6: I wanted to ask how different is are Tesla's new 451 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 6: models from traditional automaker's new models, because like they seem 452 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 6: to talk about them a little bit differently, they don't 453 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 6: make as clear a delineation between like the old Model 454 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 6: three and the new one, the old Model one and 455 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 6: the new one, and like I can't even personally like 456 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,280 Speaker 6: tell the diff Like maybe just because I'm not sophisticated enough, 457 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 6: but like, like I don't know that I could clearly 458 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 6: identify the old Model three from the new model three. 459 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 6: It seems like the company has sort of been based 460 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 6: on this understanding that like they're not really going to 461 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 6: refresh these things all that much. 462 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a very good question. I think what I 463 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,400 Speaker 3: really understand, just getting back to your earlier comment, well, 464 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 3: you know Elon Musk and car sales and the politics 465 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 3: around it. What I really don't understand is if I 466 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,600 Speaker 3: step take a step back. Look, you know, I've been 467 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 3: looking at the industry for like thirty years, the auto industry, 468 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 3: and it's amazing. I'm just so surprised that, you know, 469 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 3: a we've seen new automakers springing springing up. You know, 470 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 3: you have Tesla Ariba. I never thought of a new 471 00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,879 Speaker 3: automakers can come into the market because the barrier of 472 00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 3: entry is just so high. There's so much capital investment 473 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,399 Speaker 3: that needs to be made. So for Elon Moss to 474 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 3: you know, come in, it's an American may Car to 475 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,360 Speaker 3: come in and actually sell millions of cars and take 476 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 3: market share from legacy automaker. It's a huge seat. You know, 477 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 3: I think personally, I think we should celebrate the fact 478 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 3: that you know, he's able to do that right now? 479 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 3: You're right. 480 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 6: Uh. 481 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 3: You know these vehicles, even the model wide, it's from 482 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 3: a it's mostly a cosmetic change, like from a from 483 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 3: a consumer perspective. 484 00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 2: You mean the new one that's about to come out. 485 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, right, the new one is aboucked to come out. 486 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 3: It's a lot of it's cosmatic changes. Is a front 487 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 3: bumper has changed, the lighting has changed. 488 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 2: Lightebar, right, the light bar is very different. 489 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:21,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, the light bar. 490 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 2: Steve. The thing on how different this new model Why 491 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 2: is versus the old one is I think a pretty 492 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 2: important thing, Max, and I've been talking about it off 493 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,920 Speaker 2: the air the last few days. I think that those 494 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 2: cosmetic differences in the new model Why are significant enough 495 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,959 Speaker 2: that people will recognize them and they'll say, oh, that's 496 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 2: a new model Why versus an old model Why. And 497 00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 2: so I guess my pushback to your whole thesis that 498 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 2: the new model Why is going to help sales is 499 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 2: what if it hurts sales? What if it tethers me 500 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 2: more closely when I buy it? To this version of 501 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 2: Elon Musk I lose as a buyer pausible deniability, and 502 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 2: I could say, oh, I bought this TK years ago. 503 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 6: You got to get Steve more context. This is the 504 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 6: I bought this before he was crazy theory Tesla Steve. 505 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:12,359 Speaker 2: Steve knows I can tell from the look at his 506 00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 2: face and he knows it right, So right, I mean, 507 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 2: I guess what I'm also getting is because when you 508 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 2: came up with these numbers, you used historical comparison. You said, 509 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 2: when when Tesla did previous refreshes, this is the kind 510 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 2: of growth that followed it. And I just wonder if 511 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 2: that is applicable to this day and age. 512 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that is That's a good question. Like, 513 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,080 Speaker 3: you know, history doesn't predict the future. 514 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:35,880 Speaker 1: I know that. 515 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 3: I think, you know, putting that number out is important. 516 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 3: But you know, if I you know, I think if 517 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 3: you look at the model, why and you know I've 518 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 3: started to see him on the street here an. 519 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 2: The new ones. You're already seeing them. 520 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 3: The new ones. Yeah, I seen they have you. 521 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 2: Seen bumper stickers on him that said I bought this 522 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,639 Speaker 2: where I realize Eline went crazy? 523 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, and look I look at some of the statistics 524 00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 3: in China. You know, some of the social media reports 525 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 3: on China. Some of the people I talked to in China, 526 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 3: By the way, I know, I actually covered the Chinese 527 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 3: auto for fifteen years not too long ago. The reaction 528 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,639 Speaker 3: on the new model is quite positive. Right if you 529 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:28,080 Speaker 3: look at China, the FSD is I feel like it's 530 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,400 Speaker 3: going to help quite a bit for the Chinese consumer. 531 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 3: They rave about it. It's it's you know, it's in 532 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 3: awe for them. So I think that demand's there. 533 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 2: See, there's the point that Dana brings up often is 534 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 2: that China is hugely important for Tesla and its sales, 535 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 2: and I get the sense very much that there isn't 536 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:52,400 Speaker 2: the nearly as much controversy or you know, the stigma 537 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 2: with buying a Tesla there like you'd have here in 538 00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 2: the US or in Europe right now, right, I just don't. 539 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 2: I don't know the Chinese consumers think about him and 540 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 2: the brand that way. Is that fair? 541 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:08,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, that's fair. He's idolized over there, still still is. 542 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 3: I mean, there's some debates around it, but it still is. 543 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 3: From my. 544 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,439 Speaker 2: So when you when you when you have low single 545 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 2: digit growth coming ahead, uh for the company, sales is 546 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,679 Speaker 2: a lot of that China driven. 547 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 3: A lot of it is China. It is a lot 548 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,920 Speaker 3: of China driven. We actually think even in the month 549 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 3: of March, in April, uh in April, we'll probably see 550 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 3: your rear increase in that marketplace. So a lot of 551 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 3: it is driven by by China. But we can't forget 552 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 3: about Europe. You know, Europe being down, it is a concern. 553 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 3: It has been becoming a smaller market for them. But 554 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 3: you know, especially you know Januine February sales are down. 555 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 3: I think it's mostly contributed by the changeover the shutdown 556 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 3: of the Berlin Plan. 557 00:28:58,480 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 2: Wait, wait, so just for a second, there, so we 558 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 2: when you when we see that Europe is down like 559 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 2: forty percent sales wise in February, you're saying that the 560 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 2: vast bulk of that forty percent decline is indeed a 561 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 2: reflection of the fact that output was shut down, and 562 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 2: not the fact that buyers don't want these cars. 563 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 3: Oh no, I don't want to say no. I think 564 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,560 Speaker 3: there so there's three actually components to it. I think 565 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 3: in Janul February the large part of the decline was 566 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,280 Speaker 3: the model year Changeler. But if you look at full 567 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 3: year twenty twenty four, I think that the client is 568 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 3: not necessarily a model of why they're waiting. It's not 569 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 3: necessarily they're waiting for the motto of why. I think 570 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 3: there's a huge a lot of competition from the Chinese 571 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 3: over there. Even you know, with the tariffs that the 572 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 3: Europeans are slapping on, there's still you know, they still 573 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 3: have value for money. And then you know there's you know, 574 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 3: consumer spending is weakened over there, subsidies have gone away, 575 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 3: so there is quite a bit of competitive element in 576 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,600 Speaker 3: in Europe. But I still think that they will improve 577 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 3: in the coming quarters. 578 00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 4: Fantastic think people are just ascribing too much to Elon's politics. 579 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 4: And I mean, yes, Elon got very involved in the 580 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 4: German elections, so surely some of the drop off in 581 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,680 Speaker 4: like German demand was probably because of Elon and politics. 582 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 4: But to Steve's points, like car purchases are impacted by 583 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 4: things like tariffs and local incentives and whether you're like 584 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 4: waiting for the next model to come out, and we 585 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 4: just can't ascribe too much to the politics alone. And 586 00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 4: what's happening is that Tesla is like clearing inventory while 587 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 4: they're refreshing the model. Why now the model why is 588 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 4: starting to come out. You are going to see a rebound. 589 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 4: I'm going to push back on your number. I don't 590 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 4: think we're going to see four hundred thousand in the 591 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 4: first quarter. I think that's too high. I think it's 592 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 4: going to be way lower than that. 593 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,520 Speaker 3: I mean, first of all, I think the four hundred 594 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,680 Speaker 3: numbers really for the second quarter it's in the first quarter, 595 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 3: is going to be way under like three hundred and fifty. 596 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 2: Okay, Okay, So Steve, we need to rin app but 597 00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,960 Speaker 2: we will have you back on in a few months, 598 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 2: uh to talk about how the second quarter sales went 599 00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 2: and if it turns out when we have you back 600 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 2: on in a few months. Your prediction was wildly off 601 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,000 Speaker 2: and you and you totally flamed out here. What will 602 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 2: you say, like, what are the most probable causes for 603 00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 2: your for the demise of your prediction if it goes 604 00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 2: awry on you? What? What is it? What? What? What? 605 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 2: What rears it? 606 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 3: I you know, I think, like I said earlier, I'm 607 00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 3: not denying you know, there's you know, political impact in 608 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 3: terms of the consumer sentiment on the vehicles. If sales 609 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:41,360 Speaker 3: are down. You know, I'll first admit look wrong, and uh, 610 00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,200 Speaker 3: we'll move on and uh, you know, I'll probably talk 611 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 3: about the robotex. 612 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 2: You'll go you'll go full, you'll go full elon mode 613 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 2: and you start spinning. But papat Apples, look at the 614 00:31:53,880 --> 00:32:00,479 Speaker 2: robo taxi. It's coming. It's coming, all right, Steve mac Stana, 615 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 2: thanks for joining, Thank you. 616 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:03,720 Speaker 3: Thank you. 617 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Stacy Wong. Anna Masa Rakus 618 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 2: is our editor, and Rayhan Harmansi our senior editor. Blake 619 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 2: Maple's handles engineering, and Dave Purcell factchecks. Our supervising producer 620 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 2: is Magnus Hendrickson. The Elunning theme is written and performed 621 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 2: by Taka Yasuzawa and Alex Sugi Eira. Brandon Francis Newnham 622 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:29,959 Speaker 2: is our executive producer, and Sage Bauman is the head 623 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Podcasts. A big thanks as always to our 624 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 2: supporters Joel Weber and Brad Stone. I'm David Papadopoulos. If 625 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,040 Speaker 2: you have a minute, rate and review our show, it'll 626 00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 2: help other listeners find us. See you next week.