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Speaker 1: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Boomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: This week. On the podcast, I have Dana Telsey, and

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Speaker 1: if you follow retail stocks at all for any period

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Speaker 1: of time, you should probably know the name Telsey. She's

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Speaker 1: been an analyst UH and a fixture on financial media

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Speaker 1: for a long time. She is just full of energy,

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Speaker 1: covers a ton of stuff. You may have to slow

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Speaker 1: this podcast down because between the two of us, we

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Speaker 1: were both speaking so quickly. By coincidence, we both used

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Speaker 1: to have our offices in the same building, and I

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Speaker 1: was always bumping into her, usually when she was running

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Speaker 1: out of the building to catch a plane or or

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Speaker 1: something like that. She's pretty much always in motion. I

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Speaker 1: find her really fascinating. She covers a lot of retail

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Speaker 1: and does it in a way that I don't know

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Speaker 1: if other retail analysts spend nearly as much time as

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Speaker 1: she and her colleagues do in stores with management, kicking tires,

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Speaker 1: looking at looking at malls, looking at at various shopping experiences,

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Speaker 1: looking at all these different channels that consumers could go

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Speaker 1: out and consume goods. Um She's She's one of the

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Speaker 1: most intriguing and highly ranked retail analysts on the street.

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Speaker 1: If you are all interested in any of the consumer

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Speaker 1: and retailing stocks, and that's everything from Apple and Amazon

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Speaker 1: to Lord and Taylor's, Nordstrom, Macy's two things like Starbucks

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Speaker 1: or or shake Shack. Her firm is called the Telsey

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Speaker 1: Advisory Group or tag get it retail tag Um. They

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Speaker 1: really cover everything. They do a pretty substantial job. They're

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Speaker 1: highly highly regarded, and I find talking to her about

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Speaker 1: retail to be a whirlwinds. She she may be the

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Speaker 1: single most knowledgeable part US and I've ever encountered when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the world of retail, consumer spending, retail shopping,

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Speaker 1: retail sales, and all the companies that exist within it.

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Speaker 1: So if you are all interested in that space, I

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Speaker 1: think you're gonna find this to be a fascinating conversation. So,

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Speaker 1: with no further ado, here is my conversation with Dana Telsey.

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Speaker 1: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ridholts on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: This week. My special guest is Dana Telsey of the

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Speaker 1: Telsey Advisory Group. She is a retail analyst extraordinaire. I've

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Speaker 1: been following Dana for forever. She was an analyst, institutional

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Speaker 1: investor top rated for thirteen years. You were at bear

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Speaker 1: Stearns for a good couple of years right now, it's

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Speaker 1: there for twelve years, twelve years, and and we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about her timing in her exit was perfect. Dana Telsey,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Bloomberg. Thank you so much, very great to

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Speaker 1: be here. Thank you for having me. My pleasure. So

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Speaker 1: began with Ron Barron, which was a seventeen billion dollar firm,

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Speaker 1: and you really started at the bottom, right You began

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Speaker 1: as a secretary. I was Ron's assistant. I was so fortunate.

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Speaker 1: I grew up in the city. You lived in the

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Speaker 1: same building as my family, and I knew him from

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Speaker 1: when he first started the company. So I learned from

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Speaker 1: best in class of pro and he taught me how

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Speaker 1: to understand stocks, how to understand companies, and also how

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Speaker 1: to read management teams. He believes in long term investing,

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Speaker 1: he believes in guard value at a reasonable price, and

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Speaker 1: he basically believes in the brand of a business kennot grow.

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Speaker 1: And that's what I learned from Ron. I was so fortunate.

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Speaker 1: So so you start working really at a very junior

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Speaker 1: position and eventually you get you go through the c

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Speaker 1: f A processes that right NBA process, NBA process. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I want at night to business school, so you get

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Speaker 1: your m b A. And then how do you then

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Speaker 1: morph into a full time analysts? Went to the South

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Speaker 1: Side on the brokerage side, and frankly before that, I

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Speaker 1: was fortunate to be in a Bye Side investor group

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Speaker 1: of some of the best names in the business, like

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Speaker 1: Steve Mandel of Lone Pine, where we got to exchange

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Speaker 1: ideas on a monthly basis. And then I went to

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Speaker 1: the South Side and basically went to C J. Lawrence,

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Speaker 1: which was a terrific platform, fantastic people, and I got

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Speaker 1: to learn how analysts sell their product and basically that's

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Speaker 1: why it's called sell side to the buy side. I

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Speaker 1: was there for three years before they got acquired by

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Speaker 1: Deutsche Bank, and then was at bear Sterns for twelve years.

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Speaker 1: You're a bear Sterns for a long time. How do

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Speaker 1: you morph into a retail analyst from really? Did you

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Speaker 1: start as a generalist or were you always attracted to retail.

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Speaker 1: I've tried everything. When I was at Ron's for a minute,

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Speaker 1: he gave me the latitude. I tried being a traitor,

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Speaker 1: I tried being a salesperson and what I liked about

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Speaker 1: it is I liked being being an expert. I really

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Speaker 1: liked the idea of not doing research, talking with companies,

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Speaker 1: talking with experts, and understanding and pulling apart the ten

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Speaker 1: k's and the ten queues because it all tells a story.

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Speaker 1: So I'm about storytelling. So so what makes following retail

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Speaker 1: different than other types of UM analysts. There there's a

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Speaker 1: very different energy and a very different focus for for

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Speaker 1: the people who follow the retailers than the people who

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Speaker 1: follow tech refinance or what have you. So keep in mind, yes,

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Speaker 1: I worked for Ron Barren, but since I grew up

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Speaker 1: in the city, my family had a bookstore on Madison Avenue.

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Speaker 1: My grandfather was cash register number one, my mother was

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Speaker 1: cash register number two, when I was cash registered number three.

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Speaker 1: So being able to understand that retail is detail and

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Speaker 1: understand the complexity of the story, that's what makes retail fun.

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Speaker 1: You could feel it. You can go in a store,

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Speaker 1: you can talk to customers. But today the world's changed

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Speaker 1: because online and the Internet has really made things different

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Speaker 1: than what it was. But you need physical and digital

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Speaker 1: in order to really capture the consumer. We're gonna spend

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Speaker 1: some more time talking about online in a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But I recall back when you were at bear Stearns,

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Speaker 1: you were notorious for doing a lot of of what

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Speaker 1: what you call resa, what I would call shopping. But

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Speaker 1: you literally, my wife calls it retail therapy. You literally

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Speaker 1: during the holidays and during major seasons, you're checking off boxes,

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Speaker 1: You're going to thousands and thousands of stores, stores and locations.

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Speaker 1: How aggressive are you aggressively? Are you out in the

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Speaker 1: actual retail environed constantly? I mean, I believe that you

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Speaker 1: can't sit at your desk and know what's happening in

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Speaker 1: the field, so essentially everywhere from Chicago and Boston last week,

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Speaker 1: the West Coast. I was in London Monday and Tuesday

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Speaker 1: of this week. I need to be able to feel

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Speaker 1: it myself. What's moving, what's checking, what's left on sale,

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Speaker 1: what bags are the consumers carrying, and how is the

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Speaker 1: sales staff approaching them. If you don't feel it yourself,

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Speaker 1: you're not going to know what a brand is. So

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Speaker 1: retail is detail and the pulse of it to me

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Speaker 1: is being able to see the shoppers. How much do

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Speaker 1: you put yourself at risk for foreign prey to anecdotal evidence,

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Speaker 1: we all know Manhattan is in America, It's a very

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Speaker 1: different place, and I'm constantly checking myself off as we're

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Speaker 1: first coming out of the recession. Looks like things are

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Speaker 1: doing pretty well now when the rest of the country

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Speaker 1: clearly wasn't wasn't where Manhattan was post bailouts. That's why

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Speaker 1: I do those shopping tours around the country, and that's

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Speaker 1: why my team and I whether they're in Tennessee, whether

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Speaker 1: they're in California, whether they're in Chicago, you can't These

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Speaker 1: companies have thousands of stores, so at least you're going

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Speaker 1: to get a pulse and you're gonna get a read

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Speaker 1: what's working. And frankly, having combined that also on the

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Speaker 1: international scope, that helps to seeing what a prime mark

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Speaker 1: could mean in the US when prime Mark is based

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Speaker 1: in the UK and that's where they're real retail presences

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Speaker 1: along with the continent of Europe. I want to know

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Speaker 1: what the US has now and what's coming and what

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Speaker 1: could be impacting it. I look for change. How important

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Speaker 1: are the macro environments? Do you look at things like

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Speaker 1: interest rates, inflation, the cost of the dollar. What does

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Speaker 1: the macro concerns do to for a retail analyst A lot.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at today it's all about tax reform.

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Speaker 1: What that gonna mean? What could it mean? What do

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Speaker 1: these border adjusted taxes mean? The macro provides the framework

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Speaker 1: and companies need to curate the landscape. So I'm constantly

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Speaker 1: looking at it because it gives a gauge. Macro provides

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Speaker 1: the framework and the companies need to curate for the landscape.

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Speaker 1: So what I mean by that is, well, all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, unemployment is getting lower. Well, then what should

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Speaker 1: companies be doing, whether in discretionary goods, in price points,

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Speaker 1: in articles that they're selling. Should it be different, should

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Speaker 1: it be more luxurious goods or what could be a

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Speaker 1: little bit more expensive? Is consumers can afford it. Companies

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Speaker 1: today have more data and know more about their customer

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Speaker 1: than ever, both from online and from physical. Therefore, balancing

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Speaker 1: inventory with what consumers really want is something they're able

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Speaker 1: to manage better today than they were in the past.

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Speaker 1: Macro helps provide that. I'm Barry Hults. You're listening to

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Speaker 1: Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My guest today is

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Speaker 1: Dana Telsey. She is best known as a retail analysts.

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Speaker 1: You can run is the tels the advisory group and

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Speaker 1: spent a dozen years or so at bear Stearns. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk a little bit about online retail. Uh this holiday season,

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Speaker 1: it seems like like every other year it's Amazon and

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Speaker 1: everybody else? Is that still the case? That is still

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Speaker 1: the case. It is Amazon and than everyone else. Whether

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Speaker 1: you're a physical retailer, people are talking about do you

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Speaker 1: sell on Amazon? Where they're a digital retailer, do you

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Speaker 1: want to sell on Amazon? And essentially it's new categories

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Speaker 1: and new brands that are emerging all of a sudden.

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Speaker 1: Businesses like consignment, the real real or threat up or

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Speaker 1: trades A. That's what we're hearing emerge. But Amazon has

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Speaker 1: not been that strong in apparel. They've been strong in

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Speaker 1: other categories because Amazon is more of an item business.

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Speaker 1: But you know they'll learn that too. And we think

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Speaker 1: Amazon is going to continue to be someone and continue

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Speaker 1: to be a business model that needs to be studied carefully. Well.

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Speaker 1: They did the Zappos acquisition, which was for shoes and sneakers.

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Speaker 1: I think they did that as much to learned that

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Speaker 1: business as anything else. But are are apparel different than Look,

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Speaker 1: we all buy books and and those of us who

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Speaker 1: still buy CDs and DVDs, as well as electronics and

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Speaker 1: gadgets on on Amazon. Can you translate the fit and

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Speaker 1: feel of a garment from a real store to online

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Speaker 1: or is that always going to be a big advantage

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Speaker 1: to physical brick and motory. The word always is a

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Speaker 1: dangerous word because some always always changes. And what we've

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Speaker 1: been seeing is that on Amazon it feels to us

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Speaker 1: like the best selling items or some of the replenishment

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Speaker 1: items in apparel underwear, for example, seems very strong. Yet

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Speaker 1: in other words, you know what you're gonna get, and

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Speaker 1: now you're just price shopping to replace the repeatable, replenishable purchase.

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Speaker 1: But collection items and designer where that doesn't do as well.

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Speaker 1: We're not seeing brands look to adopt Amazon yet because

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Speaker 1: they're not putting them in an environment that's unique and

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Speaker 1: differentiated for them. That's today. We'll see what happens over

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Speaker 1: the next few years if as they scale the business.

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Speaker 1: I'm holiday shopping, I'm looking for something fun and funky.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg actually had a best Pajamas to Buy and they

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Speaker 1: ranged from fifty bucks to nine hundred dollars, and somewhere

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Speaker 1: in the middle of that, a hundred and fifty dollars.

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Speaker 1: I found this great set of pajamas. I couldn't find

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Speaker 1: it on Amazon. I ordered it from the manufacturer and

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Speaker 1: then I went back and I did tweak the search

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Speaker 1: a little bit and lo and behold, the right size,

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Speaker 1: the right color comes up in that manufacturer, and um,

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Speaker 1: and it was fired. I was cheaper on Amazon then

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Speaker 1: from the retailer direct. It's it's amazing. And isn't everyone

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Speaker 1: an Amazon Prime member? It certainly seems what they've done

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Speaker 1: with Prime the synonym for Amazon is the word scale,

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Speaker 1: and is they put more categories to basically make you

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Speaker 1: want to continue renewing that Prime membership, Like what they're

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Speaker 1: doing with media, it's all encompassing. Yes, So Amazon Music,

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Speaker 1: Amazon Video. It's amazing and the latest thing I discovered

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Speaker 1: on Amazon, And I don't want to just talk about

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Speaker 1: Amazon on Over the summer, we bought a TV. It's

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Speaker 1: for the basement by the treadmill. And months go by

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Speaker 1: and I don't hang it, and finally it's like, all right,

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Speaker 1: I gotta get this thing up and I go back

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Speaker 1: to the store. I got it, and they want four

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Speaker 1: dollars to install it, and I'm like, that's what the

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Speaker 1: TV cost? Thanks? I go back to a Google search,

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Speaker 1: thinking Angie's List or something, they'll come up. Amazon comes up.

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Speaker 1: It's to have a television hung on the wall. It's amazing.

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Speaker 1: And then you realize, oh, wait a second. They're just

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Speaker 1: a matchmaker between the consumer and the service provider and

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Speaker 1: they take their pound of flesh. It cost them nothing

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Speaker 1: to do this. It's pretty amazing. I mean, and now

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Speaker 1: they're focused on that last mile. They want to be

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Speaker 1: able to make sure that you're getting what you need

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Speaker 1: when you want it, because they want you to renew

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Speaker 1: that prime membership. So so you could do plumbing, you

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Speaker 1: could do yard work, you could do contracting, you could

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Speaker 1: do there's a whole run of Amazon services that I

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Speaker 1: had no idea that they actually provided it. It's quite astonished.

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Speaker 1: So so outside of Amazon and Amazon Home Services and

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Speaker 1: and all that stuff, who else is doing online? Right?

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Speaker 1: I think you're seeing things from the real real I

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Speaker 1: think Wayfair is doing interesting things online. I think what

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Speaker 1: you've seen from Binobo's, what you've seen from Dollar Shave Club.

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Speaker 1: I think there's Revolve Clothing is pretty interesting in terms

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Speaker 1: of what they're doing. What are they doing that's kind

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Speaker 1: of unique. We've all seen the Dollar Shave Club videos.

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Speaker 1: They were great, the company was what wasn't it for

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Speaker 1: not in substantial amount of There's a terrific conference called

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Speaker 1: shop Talk. It began last year and they basically brought

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Speaker 1: physical and digital together, and it's being gonna be held

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Speaker 1: this year also on March nineteen, and that's where you

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Speaker 1: see some of the newest online retailers and how they're

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Speaker 1: growing and how they're becoming physical too, because physical retailers

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Speaker 1: need to better embrace digital also. That's that's fascinating amongst

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Speaker 1: um outside of Amazon, who else from pure digital not

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Speaker 1: having a physical shop? Who else is is catching your eye?

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Speaker 1: I think just not having a pure physical shop, but

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Speaker 1: just on the on the digital side, I think there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of interest in social media things. What Snapchat

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Speaker 1: is doing, what pinterest is doing. That's really interesting to me.

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Speaker 1: Are they converting their user activity to actual retail sales

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Speaker 1: or at least two retail prospects driving traffics seems like it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look at the line that's hell that the

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Speaker 1: at the Snapchat pop up shop shop here on sixty

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Speaker 1: between Fifth and Madison. Everyone wants those virtual reality glasses.

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Speaker 1: Look at Instagram. I've an office filled with people who

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Speaker 1: are consumers, people who like to consume, and frankly, they're

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Speaker 1: learning about new trends, new retailers, new online sites, all

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Speaker 1: through Instagram. A picture is worth more than a thousand words.

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Speaker 1: That's interesting. What about the brick and mortar retailers, which

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Speaker 1: of the physical stores are actually have a good digital

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Speaker 1: um positioning. You've got to give the department stores credit.

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Speaker 1: Macy's Nordstrom have done a very good job at integrating

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Speaker 1: physical and digital and it's growing fast for them, and

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Speaker 1: I think you're seeing other players. Look at Walmart. Walmart

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Speaker 1: basically now believes online is central to their strategy. I

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Speaker 1: know that if I go to a Lord and Tailor

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Speaker 1: or a Macy's and I want something and they either

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Speaker 1: don't have the right color, don't have the right size,

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Speaker 1: every salesperson will say, oh, we can have that ship

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Speaker 1: to you for free. If you want this one in

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Speaker 1: this color, we can run it it'll you'll have it

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Speaker 1: in a week. No one wants to lose a sale.

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Speaker 1: Everyone wants you, the shopper, to think of them as

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Speaker 1: in stock all the time and be retail loyal. And

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Speaker 1: how do you get loyalty? You get loyalty by service.

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Speaker 1: You get loyalty by price and convenience, and that's what

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Speaker 1: they're offering. So you mentioned price, what does online due

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Speaker 1: to price competition? Are we still seeing the same sort

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Speaker 1: of showrooming that was an issue a couple of years ago?

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Speaker 1: You are. Price transparency is one of the biggest competitors

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Speaker 1: for all of retailers and etailers, and so how do

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Speaker 1: you how do you break price transparency exclusive items, more innovation?

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Speaker 1: Basically being able to communicate with your customer services the

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Speaker 1: killer app these days, and being able to be communicative

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Speaker 1: even in store and out of store, I think makes

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Speaker 1: you feel part of the club. Service is the killer

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Speaker 1: app feels like it? I mean, when you can have

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Speaker 1: sales associates, people who chat online with you, if you're

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Speaker 1: customized to them. Why do you think you're seeing The

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Speaker 1: mobile phone right now is becoming so important to consumers

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Speaker 1: because they're using it for everything. It's not only their

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Speaker 1: work lives, but it's their personal lives too that helped

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Speaker 1: create transactions and complete transactions. I'm barry, what helps You're

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Speaker 1: listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My special

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Speaker 1: guest today is Dana Telsey of the Telsea Advisory Group.

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Speaker 1: She is a top rated institutional investor analyst for thirteen years.

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Speaker 1: Spent a lot of time at bear Stern before launching

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Speaker 1: her own firm. Let's talk a little bit about the

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Speaker 1: retail footprints and whether or not we've we've overbuilt it. It

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Speaker 1: It seems that every major town has two malls and

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Speaker 1: the old mall is kind of struggling and the new

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Speaker 1: mall is all bright and shiny, and you wonder, have

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Speaker 1: we built too much retail physical space in America. We've

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Speaker 1: had a lot of physical space in America, and yes,

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Speaker 1: you have space that isn't as productive as others. And

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Speaker 1: that's why you see the differentiation between the A malls

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Speaker 1: and the Bees and the C malls. It really is

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Speaker 1: about the right malls, and they're all changing right now.

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Speaker 1: The occupancy, the the occupancy levels and also the rents.

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Speaker 1: And those A malls that's where everyone wants to be

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Speaker 1: because you're creating a community of best in class tenants

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Speaker 1: that also retailers and restaurants invest in to continue to

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Speaker 1: make it better. So I am not a big mall shopper.

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Speaker 1: If I could stay out of the malls, I'm I'm

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Speaker 1: very happy Camper. But where I live, there's certain specific

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Speaker 1: stores you want to go to, like let's go say

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Speaker 1: the Bloomingdale Furniture store or um by me. If I

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Speaker 1: want to go to the one of the big sporting

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Speaker 1: goods stores, they're attached to them all. And not too

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Speaker 1: long ago, before the holiday season, I walked through part

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Speaker 1: of Roosevelt Field and I didn't recognize it. It's totally

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Speaker 1: different than what it used to be. What Simon has

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Speaker 1: done in Roosevelt Field, it looks terrific. Look at that

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Speaker 1: name and Marcus there. Look at the center court area

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Speaker 1: of the of the court is really nice. I was

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Speaker 1: shocked it used to be you know, junk this and

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Speaker 1: garbage that. It's really good. High end food malls today

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Speaker 1: need to be experiential, not just a place for buying things.

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Speaker 1: They're offering restaurants. You know what. The new name for

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Speaker 1: movie theaters are wine Dyne and Recline because there's a

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Speaker 1: new way to go to movie theaters these days. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's what you're gonna see. These shopping centers

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Speaker 1: or retail real estate become places where consumers spend time

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Speaker 1: not only to meet people, not only to buy things,

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Speaker 1: but more physical time by offering more services within the center.

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Speaker 1: So what does that mean in terms of the cost

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Speaker 1: structure of rentals for for retailers? This this looks like

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Speaker 1: when Roosevelt is a perfect example. This doesn't look like

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Speaker 1: a down and dirty, fast and cheap renovation. It looks

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Speaker 1: like they really put some time and effort and money

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Speaker 1: into it. What are rents are going to be? What

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Speaker 1: our rents gonna be like for retailers? For these A malls,

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Speaker 1: rents are going to be high. And the reason retailers

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Speaker 1: will pay those types of rents those centers drive the

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Speaker 1: most traffic, have the most complementary mix of tenants, and

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Speaker 1: are always fully occupied. So we continue to see demand

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Speaker 1: for those centers being tremendous. So who is who else

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Speaker 1: you mentioned Simon's group? Who else is doing the sort

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Speaker 1: of large scale retail Well, look at general growth properties.

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Speaker 1: They happen to be doing a very good job. Also,

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Speaker 1: what's happening in the Natick mall is very exciting. They've

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Speaker 1: had amendous changes in an uplift in their centers too.

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Speaker 1: And even with the latest parking technology, the latest parking

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Speaker 1: town red light, green light. If you think about what

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Speaker 1: consumers today get frustrated about going to a shopping center

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Speaker 1: finding a parking spot. For sure, they've made it easy

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Speaker 1: with implementation of red light green light. If you see

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Speaker 1: red spots occupied, if you see green spots available, really

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Speaker 1: and that's making a difference with return business and people.

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Speaker 1: Of course makes the ability and when you think about

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Speaker 1: what retails are doing buy online, pickup and store, it's

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Speaker 1: one of the reasons it makes buy online, pickup and

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Speaker 1: store easy. Along with the fact that those consumers who

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Speaker 1: do buy online, pickup and store, they typically have an

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Speaker 1: attachment rate of coming in and buying nearly thirty more

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Speaker 1: because they're picking up the pants, but then maybe they're

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Speaker 1: getting socks or shirt or jacket other items. So Professor

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Speaker 1: Galloway over at n y U Stern was a previous guest,

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Speaker 1: and he talks about physical stores as distributed warehouse chains

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Speaker 1: that will have been in a huge advantage that chains

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Speaker 1: like Macy's and even Marcus have over Amazon in their

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Speaker 1: category groups. They seem to have come to that realization

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Speaker 1: somewhat late. Are they making up for that that being

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Speaker 1: a little behind the April? What what's the future for there?

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Speaker 1: Look like, I think basically we're not going to see

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Speaker 1: a country that's overrun by warehouses. And I think companies

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Speaker 1: and retailers are using part of their stores as they

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Speaker 1: begin to encompass more digital and omni channel initiatives as

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Speaker 1: supplying goods, and it could be buy online, pickup and

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Speaker 1: store by ship shipped to home from store, either one.

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Speaker 1: And frankly, the cost of doing this fulfillment is not cheap.

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Speaker 1: So figuring out ways to economize and maybe making retail

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Speaker 1: space more productive using some of the space that maybe

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Speaker 1: back room space for distribution purposes. Yes, we're seeing that.

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Speaker 1: So you just said something that surprised me. You said

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Speaker 1: it's not cheap. I ordered a Monster O blower that

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Speaker 1: I got with m X points um from Lows and

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Speaker 1: it was by online pick up in store. I got

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Speaker 1: one bigger than they actually had in the stores. And

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Speaker 1: I just assumed, oh, that's a free marginal sale for them.

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Speaker 1: But you're implying that there's a cost to them for this.

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Speaker 1: You bet, the cost to be able to ship that

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Speaker 1: item if you're not fully on stocking, need to ship

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Speaker 1: two boxes or three boxes in order to have the

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Speaker 1: order fully intact. That doesn't come cheap. And that's why

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Speaker 1: what you see is physical stores overall typically are profitable.

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Speaker 1: E commerce helps drive sales. The combination of the two,

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Speaker 1: that multi channel shopper is your most productive shopper. Quite interesting.

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Speaker 1: I'm very results you're listening to Masters in Business on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. My special guest today is retailing expert Dana Telsey.

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Speaker 1: She runs her own shop called Telsey Advisory Group, or

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Speaker 1: TAG as it's better known. You may know her from

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Speaker 1: her days at bear Stearns. Let's let's talk about both

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Speaker 1: physical stores and some specific companies. I have to bring

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Speaker 1: up Nike because I had reference to you. I wanted

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Speaker 1: to talk about Nike, and that was before we knew

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Speaker 1: the earnings were going to be so spectacular. Not too

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Speaker 1: long ago, I was in the Beaverton, Oregon employee store

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Speaker 1: and I love their campus insane, It makes you want

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Speaker 1: to be a runner. And immediately and I picked up

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of dry fit tennis garb, sort of reluctant, like, wow,

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Speaker 1: this stuff is really even at employee prices. This is

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Speaker 1: really expensive, And now I am a total convert. You

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Speaker 1: could play two hours of tennis, sweat till the old

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Speaker 1: and you're perfectly comfortable. And I bet you're winning more too.

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't go that far. I still stink but that

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Speaker 1: it's not apparel, it's technology. That's really a whole new

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Speaker 1: material science, isn't it. It's a new material science. You

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Speaker 1: gotta check out their new store that opened in Soho.

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Speaker 1: It's absolutely awesome. You should speak to Tahiti. She basically

428
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 1: works in their customization area. And you know what, Nike

429
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: isn't just active anymore. It's urban culture, really, yes, because

430
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 1: people are wearing activewear not just to play sports on

431
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 1: the field. They're wearing it out to dinner, They're wearing it,

432
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: shopping on the weekends, you name it. It's really integrated

433
00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 1: with work weekend. And Jim, consumers are mixing and matching

434
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 1: work weekend and Jim that that's really quite fascinating. So

435
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 1: let's talk about a couple of other stores. Walmart, Target,

436
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: best Buy, Macy's. All these stores. Not too long ago

437
00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: people were questioning whether they would ever make the leap

438
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,919
Speaker 1: to digital, to leap to online, and do it. Well,

439
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 1: all four of these are greatly improved. Who who really

440
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,919
Speaker 1: seems to understand online? Of that group, Well, it's very

441
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 1: interesting because look what Walmart did where their quie Jet

442
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,120
Speaker 1: dot com and Doug McMillan, the CEO Walmart now says

443
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: we're any commerce company, so they're looking to move to

444
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 1: that next. When you think about Macy's, look what they're

445
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 1: doing with reevaluating the real estate, taking a look at

446
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: categories and really making enhancements. They're they're looking to next.

447
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: Look what best Buy is doing branded shop and shops,

448
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,800
Speaker 1: and you can't forget Nordstrom and all of this, who

449
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 1: basically have acquired companies in order to better integrate digital

450
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 1: with online. So I think the department stores have been

451
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: a bit ahead of the game, and now you're seeing

452
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: Walmart really involved and get integrated with online. Let's let's

453
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: talk about a category that I think is just perplexing,

454
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 1: the teen retailers. You look at Abercrombie and Fish. This

455
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: was what were the eight billion dollars seven billion dollars

456
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: and now barely a billion dollars. How can anybody adequately

457
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 1: evaluate these companies? When you think about American Eagle, go

458
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: go through the whole list of of teen retailers. There,

459
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: they're impossible to keep up with, and they all seem

460
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 1: to be on fire one quarter and then that's it.

461
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 1: It's like the fed is over. How do you stay

462
00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 1: on top of that? Got to be in the stores.

463
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: You gotta be in the stores, but you also have

464
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 1: to check online. I put out this new product, the

465
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: Weekly Trend Report, that basically looks at online sites last

466
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: week and this week and what's changed and a lot changes.

467
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 1: It keeps you in the know because it shows you

468
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 1: the prices, and it shows you what's trending and not trending.

469
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 1: So how do I stay on top of it? You

470
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: have to watch what Forever twenty one and H and

471
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: M and Azara is doing, and watch what the a's

472
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 1: are doing. Logo is that's what they are. Logos are

473
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: no longer the comfort factor that they used to be

474
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 1: because the teens of ten years ago they were into logo.

475
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 1: The teens of today not into logo. The teens of

476
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 1: today are into more fashion, more, what patterns are more,

477
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 1: what is trending and that's active where. So take a

478
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 1: look at American Eagle lately they put a whole new

479
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: sport window in their store windows and also on online.

480
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: They're going to capture a new trend. And take a

481
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: look what Limited Brands L Brands is doing with Victoria's

482
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 1: Secret Pink is hot and it drives the most traffic.

483
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: So the teen retailers have gotten more competition incoming from

484
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: the fast fashion read tailors, more competition fast fashion that's

485
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 1: fashion like Zara, like h and M, like Forever twenty one,

486
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: speed to market in terms of goods and what's trending,

487
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 1: and then if you don't buy it, then it may

488
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: not be in stock. Really, it's that it's that quick.

489
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 1: What about some of the luxury retailers out there, I

490
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 1: don't recall if you still cover Coach and Tiffany, So

491
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: so they had a huge run and the past couple

492
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 1: of years not so great. What's going on there? And

493
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that's changed their same thing.

494
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 1: You need product innovation and product innovation. Take a look

495
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 1: at what Coach has done. They brought in Stewart Fever's.

496
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 1: They now have new models and new camp, new marketing

497
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 1: campaigns that are attracting the millennial consumer. And so they've

498
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: become a reinvigorated brand. And so the handbag space alone

499
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 1: now smaller bags. So you're not getting the same high

500
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: same a you are, but what are you doing for newness?

501
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 1: Check out the new Coach flagship store on fifty three

502
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,719
Speaker 1: fifty fourth Street and Fifth Avenue. It's quite the experience,

503
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: so luxury goods. Overall, we had weak tourism in two

504
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 1: thousand and sixteen in the United States. The strong dollar

505
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 1: impacted you don't know. With some of these new lower

506
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: tax laws that could be in coming, could help the

507
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 1: local consumer. And what you're seeing is the Chinese is

508
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: starting to travel again. LVMH's latest results talked about it.

509
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: Tiffany saw some improvement in tourism. You saw Coach talk

510
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 1: about some improvement in tourism, and even Macy's saw the

511
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: tourism drops less worse than they had been. So fingers

512
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: crossed for a better two thousand and seventeen. So what

513
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: about some of the other you mean, we talked about Nike,

514
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 1: some of the other athletic brands, Athleta, Athleta, I don't

515
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 1: know I'm pronouncing that. Yep, that's Party Gap and they

516
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: basically have very good success online. Take a look at

517
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: Audit Das. I mean they just opened a new flagship

518
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: to take a look at that gym stadium. What it

519
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: looks like they got. They have the trend right product

520
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: now and that makes it exciting. And don't leave out

521
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: Kevin Plank from under Armour because under Armour has big

522
00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: aspirations and what they did, whether it's buying different apps,

523
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: they're creating an under Armor community. Huh, that's quite fascinating.

524
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 1: Earlier you mentioned best Buy here. That's another example. In

525
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: OH six it was a sixty stock it plummeted to

526
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: eleven dollars. That's a twenty seven billion to four billion

527
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: dollar drop. And now it's not too far from its

528
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 1: old time eyes, it's back to dollars. What do you

529
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: make of best Buy and what's driving that recovery? They

530
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,959
Speaker 1: fought back up against Amazon, and they fought back against showrooming.

531
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: Prices are now the same where they match. Customers can

532
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: have the item same day of Best Buys. Online orders

533
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: are picked up at the store. Wait, wait to say

534
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 1: that again. Online people bypass the whole salesman, retail exit

535
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,120
Speaker 1: order online, show up with a receipt and they bring

536
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: it out to your car, bring it and also maybe

537
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: you want to buy some extra things while you're there.

538
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 1: That's been very effective for them, along with the fact

539
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: vendors need and want Best Buy to thrive, They need

540
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: that physical presence and location. How important is it for

541
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: vendors that there's a legitimate competitor to Amazon very important.

542
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: You want to be able to have diversification among your

543
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: customer base. It makes pricing rational. So um, what about

544
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: some of the other specialty shoes. Warby Parker seems to

545
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: have come out of out of nowhere, very exciting, and

546
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 1: then jet dot Com that was pretty quick from startup

547
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 1: to to total sale. Who else is out there? Who

548
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: else is interesting we might not have heard about. Well,

549
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: that's that real real. On the consignment store, threat up

550
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: trades a all very interesting in terms thread up. What

551
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 1: is threat up consignment? Something you don't wear, then you

552
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: may want to sell it and be able to buy

553
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: something else. So you're gonna sell it on some of

554
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: these apparel consignment sites. That makes it, That makes it interesting.

555
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 1: Carbon thirty eight in the act of where that's been

556
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: super interesting also in terms of some of the on

557
00:30:55,920 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: trend active wear sites that's appealing to. So how many

558
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: of these stores are you going to on a regular basis?

559
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: Are you out of the office every day? I'm in

560
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: stores every weekend. I am out in stores at least

561
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: two to three times a week. Any city I go to,

562
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 1: I always spend my time going part of the time

563
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: going to malls and going to see a store. So,

564
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: so take me through a day in the life of

565
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 1: of Dana Telsey. What because I know you're always so

566
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 1: for people who are listening to Dana and I actually

567
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 1: used to be in the same building and we were

568
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 1: constantly bumping into each other, usually as she was running

569
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 1: out of the building like it was on fire. What's

570
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: a day in the like of Dana Telsea? Like it?

571
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: You know, there is no typical day. And part of

572
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 1: the reason there's no typical day, it depends who you're

573
00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: interacting with and talking with. It starts with what's happening globally,

574
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: what I see macro wise, what's on the news that night,

575
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 1: going into the office, checking out what the stocks are doing,

576
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: and then whether it's meetings for the day, whether it's

577
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: meeting with companies for the day. I'm learning all day long,

578
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: and I'm a student, and I'm so lucky to be

579
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: able to be a tuned and have the ability to

580
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: speak to some of these business leaders. It's I'm learning

581
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: and knowledge is knowledge is what's great. And then also

582
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,680
Speaker 1: so I have my research hat where basically I'm listening

583
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: to conference calls talking to companies going into stores. We

584
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: have the Telsea Consumer Fund, which is a long short

585
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: consumer hedge fund. It's up around double digits this year

586
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: so far, and so we're in the midst of asset

587
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: raising for that fund, and each day it's something a

588
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: little bit different, but it's always about the people. So

589
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 1: that's for that's we say, we don't really care about

590
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 1: predictions and forecast, but tell us about some of the

591
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: trends you see shifting in the coming year. Structural change

592
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: is something that we have in the consumer landscape that

593
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: we've never seen before. Structural change and a man but

594
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: that it's about. That's about online and what's happening with

595
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 1: companies becoming physical and digital at the same time. That's

596
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: about the mobile phone becoming the new way to communicate.

597
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: That's about data and loyalty pro grams, about how does

598
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,479
Speaker 1: a retailer stay on top. You got to know more

599
00:33:03,520 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: about your customer and be able to interpret the data

600
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: that you receive. It's about speed and that's a competitive advantage,

601
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 1: whether it's ordering a product delivered to that customer's home.

602
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: How do you be faster in stock so that customer

603
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: comes to you again and that's what every single brand

604
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: is looking to be. I think brands have value, they

605
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: have meaning because do you want to be part of

606
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: the club. Brands will give you pricing and a pricing umbrella,

607
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 1: and if you have the innovative product, that's what gives

608
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 1: you a life cycle. We've been speaking with Dana Telsey.

609
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: She runs the Telsey Advisory Group covering all manners of

610
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: retail stock. If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and

611
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: stick around for the podcast extras. Will we keep the

612
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: tape rolling and continue discussing all things retail. Be sure

613
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 1: and check out my daily column on Bloomberg View dot com.

614
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at Rid Halts. We

615
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: love your comments and feedback. Be sure to write to

616
00:33:56,160 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: us at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. I'm

617
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 1: Barry Rehults. You've been listening to Masters in Business on

618
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Welcome to the podcast, Dana. Thank you so

619
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:09,919
Speaker 1: much for doing this. I've been I've been looking forward

620
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: to this UM for a while. There there's so much

621
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: retail stuff I can talk about. UM. We didn't mention

622
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 1: this in the broadcast portion, but I grew up my

623
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 1: father owns a chain of of sporting goods stores. They

624
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 1: had three sneakers and sportswear sweatshirts. I remember when I

625
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 1: was a kid, the Champion sweatshirts were huge, and he

626
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 1: used to occasionally bring sneakers home and say, here's a

627
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:42,560
Speaker 1: new brand, Pony, see how you like. And I was like,

628
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: these are great. If I like them, they would toast.

629
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: He's a fantastic right and right in the tubes. So

630
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,400
Speaker 1: I've been did in the store, which is why I

631
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: went to grad school because I said, I am never

632
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: working retail again. You have to have a certain you

633
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 1: have to have tolerance and pay and the ability to

634
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: be empathetic with people. I have none of that. So

635
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: are you doing what you're doing? Now? Let me tell

636
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: you it was. It was motivating because people don't realize

637
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: that's a hard job, standing on your feet all day,

638
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: the hours a long folding. I mean, there's a reason

639
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: they like to talk to customers and people are I

640
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 1: think it's worse today than it was when I was

641
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:28,720
Speaker 1: a kid, where there was some civil discourse and decor.

642
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 1: Now I've I've watched people be so rude to sales

643
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: help and so rude to cashiers. I waited tables in

644
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 1: in college, and so I've always whenever anybody is rude

645
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: to a wait or, it's always, oh, you don't know

646
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: what goes on in the kitchen, do you? You probably

647
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 1: shouldn't eat what you just ordered because you've been way

648
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 1: too rude to that guy. But it's a really tough job.

649
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 1: I think it's tough job, and the good ones hard

650
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: to find. The weight in gold. How do you evaluate

651
00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 1: the retail sales staff of a big you know? Change?

652
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: Can you do that? How much can they control the

653
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 1: quality of their sales? You can tell if people feel

654
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 1: they're on a winning team or not or not on

655
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: a winning team, or more hours being allocated to that

656
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 1: particular store and labor hours in order to make the

657
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: store nicer. Take a look at the way some of

658
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 1: the stores look in terms of the care that's put

659
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 1: into them, so you can tell if people care. Just

660
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 1: like you walk in an office, you can tell what

661
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: the mood is. You can walk into a store and say,

662
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 1: this is a good staff. Everybody's happy here, you know.

663
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: You can you talk to the sales people, engage them

664
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 1: in conversation. What what's happening? I need to buy something

665
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 1: from my mom? What would you suggest what's working having

666
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: fun here? Just talk to people. They're human beings too

667
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: and they want to talk. Also, do you cover any

668
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 1: of the restaurants or food stores like star does? Yes?

669
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 1: So Darrington does a great job. So what do you

670
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 1: think of what's going on um in Starbucks and and

671
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 1: what else is interesting out there in restaurant world. Restaurant

672
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 1: world is where you've had the most new concept of crazy,

673
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: said it. And that's because look at all the Instagram

674
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: pictures people take their food? Is that so I do that?

675
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:10,240
Speaker 1: I don't Instagram. I tweet more than Instagram, but shake

676
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 1: Shock and Chick fil A and go down the list.

677
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 1: Is Instagram really driving traffic or Twitter drging traffic I have?

678
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: I just got a Twitter account also, and I'm putting

679
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: pictures up and showing people things, and all of a sudden,

680
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: people listen. They want to see what see what you're showing,

681
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 1: And yes it does. I think it helps to drive traffic.

682
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 1: It makes people more brand aware. And I love putting

683
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 1: putting pictures up on my Twitter account. I mean, all

684
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: of a sudden you have new followers. So, so what

685
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: is going on in food other than the burger wars?

686
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,879
Speaker 1: And what about organic, What about ramen and the whole

687
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: noodle traumas out there? Now, how much of that is

688
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 1: Manhattan and how much of that is the rest of

689
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: the country. It's going the rest of the country to

690
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:50,960
Speaker 1: It's definitely the coast first, but then it's going the

691
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: rest of the country. And what about everything that's happening

692
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:58,479
Speaker 1: with sweet greens and local farm to table is all

693
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 1: over not Manhattan. I live on the north shore of

694
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 1: Long Island. Two of our favorite new restaurants are both.

695
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: One is called a Stereo leon as a little place

696
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,800
Speaker 1: in Oyster Bay, and the other place U is called

697
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:19,320
Speaker 1: I always get this wrong roots Beeds in in Um.

698
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 1: I want to say, siost to Jericho. The food is delicious.

699
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 1: It's always crazy fresh. And when you look at the menu,

700
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 1: you're not just ordering. It's here's this comes from roth

701
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:30,960
Speaker 1: Camp Farms. This comes from here, this comes from the

702
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 1: North Fork, all the local one, all the local ales.

703
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 1: That seems to be a huge, huge tramp and look

704
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:40,200
Speaker 1: at blue apron and plated. All of a sudden, house

705
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: it's coming to you and you're cooking it. They're giving

706
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 1: an exact right amount of ingredients and why it's speed.

707
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: It basically makes it faster, and what is it creating

708
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 1: an experience because all of a sudden you're cooking with

709
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 1: your friends or whatever it may be. So blue apron

710
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: plated organic ramen. That's the future. Now what does that

711
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 1: mean to supermarkets? If you don't have to go killing

712
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 1: out forty five minutes driving to the local supermarket, running

713
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 1: through the through the various aisles, picking up and then

714
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 1: first bringing it home to makes it much more competitive.

715
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: But look at the prepared food section of some of

716
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,959
Speaker 1: these supermarkets. Look what Kroger has done with organics. They've

717
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: been able to capture that trend to and make the

718
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: prices competitive for all income level consumers. That that's really interesting. Um,

719
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: do you because still you don't cover whole foods, do you.

720
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: My colleague Joe Feldman, who has worked with me forever,

721
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 1: he's the superstar of supermarkets and hardlines, discounters and all

722
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 1: things out of the mall, on all things in the mall.

723
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:40,399
Speaker 1: He basically he covers the supermarkets and is a huge

724
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:44,319
Speaker 1: fan of Kroger. Likes Kroger, like likes what they've been doing.

725
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,839
Speaker 1: That that that's really quiet and there's new competition coming

726
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:51,240
Speaker 1: in All delight Ale from overseas, You've got Walmart obviously

727
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 1: having a big part of their business being food to

728
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: what what about these new Amazon cashier list supermarkets? What

729
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: is going on with that? That's going to be very interesting.

730
00:40:00,680 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: That and driverless cars that's like the new world of

731
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:06,280
Speaker 1: how we're going to consume right now. That's only available

732
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,280
Speaker 1: to employees, but it just goes to show you speed

733
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: technology all wrapped up into one. It's the game changer.

734
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 1: When can I send my driverless car out to pick

735
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: up my dinner and bring it home and cook it

736
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: for me. Let's wait, let's wait another five years, two

737
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: thousand twenty two, something like that. But but these new supermarkets,

738
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 1: the cashier list, the driven by not the usual supermarket folks. Um,

739
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: so it's Amazon, You like Kroger, You like what they're doing? Yes,

740
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 1: we do. Who else is doing interesting things in that space?

741
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 1: I think some of the privately held supermarkets public is

742
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: doing some interesting things. Wegman's obviously Wegmans is going to

743
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,920
Speaker 1: be opening in the Native Mall in two thousand eighteen.

744
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 1: So we're seeing some of those private supermarkets also do

745
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: interesting things that that's kind of that's kind of fascinating.

746
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 1: So we went through a lot of questions. I'm just

747
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 1: curious if there's anything I missed, What what sectors of

748
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 1: retail did we not talk at out that you think

749
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 1: is is kind of interesting. I think the apparel manufacturers

750
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: are interesting. Ralph Lauren, p V H VF Corps. They

751
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,800
Speaker 1: really own their brands who Calvin Klein, Tommy Hill, Fliger

752
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: is what they own. And these companies are global businesses.

753
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 1: They're now doing more of their own direct to consumer stores,

754
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 1: and they're looking to enhance their in store shops and

755
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 1: some of the better department stores. Branded companies that allocators

756
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 1: of capital and taking brands and making them grow. So

757
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: I think it's something you want to watch. So let's

758
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 1: go through that list. So at this point, everybody knows

759
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: Ralph Lauren, I would imagine, and there's it's a work

760
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 1: in progress, the Way Forward plan that the new CEO,

761
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 1: Stephan Larson put in place. He's executing on the operational enhancements.

762
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: So what what are they doing? Because I think of here,

763
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 1: this shirt is Ralph Lauren and I don't know who

764
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: the sweater is the guest Lord and Taylor, So I

765
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,360
Speaker 1: think of them as the Polo shirts. I think of

766
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 1: them as um sweaters and other sort of traditionally preppy things.

767
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 1: What are they doing to move beyond that? So you're

768
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: going to see in the fall of two thousand seventeen

769
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: some enhancements to their iconic products. So wait, you're you're

770
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 1: looking at product almost a year in advance. You got

771
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:14,480
Speaker 1: to you got it's that it takes that'll shift over time.

772
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: I mean, Neil looking to get their lead times down

773
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:19,839
Speaker 1: from fifteen months to nine months, and that's a work

774
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 1: in progress right now. And that's why you see some

775
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: of the fast fashion retailers they're super quick. But brands

776
00:42:26,120 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 1: like Ralph Lauren who are first now becoming more modernized,

777
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,279
Speaker 1: more up to date. I think you're gonna see the

778
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 1: product become that way too. So p V eight you

779
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: mentioned was um, Calvin and Tommy not Tommy Bahama. Tommy

780
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: Tommy Bahammas Oxford Industries and who else does Oxford Industries have?

781
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: Lily Pulitzer that's been so popular, that's the pink and greens,

782
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: and the other one that's like that in a privately

783
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,720
Speaker 1: held way, vineyard vines. Everyone is a fan of vineyard

784
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 1: vines these days. So these are all these names we're

785
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:01,800
Speaker 1: talking about out they've been around a couple of years,

786
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 1: are all well known. Who how do you identify or what?

787
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: Tell me about your process to look for Hey, this

788
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: is an interesting company, there are some legs here. How

789
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 1: do you how do you sift through all that options

790
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 1: to find the diamond in the rough? So a couple

791
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 1: of different ways. I look at what's trending online. I

792
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: look at Instagram. I look at bloggers. Bloggers are your

793
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: new celebrities in terms of what they're endorsing or what

794
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: their wat Totally, that's how you be able to pick

795
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: up on trends and so yes, able to see what's trending,

796
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 1: what's working. So I watched the bloggers, I watched who's

797
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: who's watching them and who their followers are, what the

798
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: Instagram leads are that I look in the stores and

799
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 1: I see what's happening talking to salespeople. You can look

800
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:50,720
Speaker 1: online all you want and you can see what's trending,

801
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 1: but really it's not the same. You've got to marry

802
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: that with going into the stores. Also, So this we've

803
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 1: been reading about this so called old social media influencers

804
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 1: is that And I've also been reading about how those

805
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:10,919
Speaker 1: metrics can be gamed is that a real important thing

806
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 1: to driving a specific product sales house It is, it's

807
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,720
Speaker 1: become part of that. I mean, look at the fashion

808
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 1: shows now where all of a sudden it's brought, it's

809
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 1: brought to your living room. And these fashion bloggers if

810
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 1: they're wearing things, if all of a sudden, the right celebrities.

811
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: Look at Selina Gomez and their Kardashians and Kendall Jenner,

812
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: they make a real difference in being able to attract

813
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 1: millennials because everyone wants to be part of a club

814
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 1: that they want to be like them, and that's what

815
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 1: happens that that's astonishing. So we we've talked about online,

816
00:44:44,480 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 1: we've talked about physical stores, we've talked about brands. Um.

817
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 1: The one company I haven't asked you about is Apple. Um.

818
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 1: The Apple stores to this day, even though their their

819
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: sales numbers seem to have their growth rate is slowed down.

820
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: Every time I go to an Apple store, they're still

821
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 1: jam packed. What what's going on with that? Look at

822
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 1: the ecosystem that they created, Look at all the Apple

823
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 1: users that they have, so you have either have to

824
00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 1: go to the genius bar, you're upgrading, and people seem

825
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 1: to be upgrading faster, and yet what you're gonna see

826
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 1: is the Apple stores themselves. They're reinventing themselves. Take a

827
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: look at the newest store downtown at Westfield's Oculus. Pretty

828
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: cool in terms of what they put together there, and

829
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 1: it's basically collaborative engagement sales associates and the customers and

830
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 1: looking to sell them more of the Apple products. Who

831
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:41,760
Speaker 1: else is competitive in terms of driving their own retail

832
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 1: sales through their own stores. Apples seem to have created

833
00:45:45,920 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 1: a niche that didn't exist previously, at least not for

834
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 1: technology stores. You know what else? Cosmetic stores? Look at

835
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:56,760
Speaker 1: Sephora absolutely packed, Look at Alta absolutely packed off price.

836
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 1: Look at t j X Ross stores and Burlington. People

837
00:46:00,360 --> 00:46:04,440
Speaker 1: like the treasure hunt atmosphere. It's two time consuming, but

838
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:06,959
Speaker 1: a lot of people they love spending their time that way.

839
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: If you or if you have, if you have the

840
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 1: time for it in the interest, sure you can certainly

841
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,479
Speaker 1: find great deals. Take a look at their checkoutlines. They've

842
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:18,479
Speaker 1: got the time. I would I would guess what else

843
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,320
Speaker 1: is is striking you as interesting and different these days?

844
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: What's really capturing your attention? I think the things that

845
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 1: are capturing my attention is companies overall that are updating

846
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,920
Speaker 1: and enhancing their brands. What are they doing with the

847
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:34,000
Speaker 1: investment in technology in terms of data, How are they

848
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 1: enhancing speed? How are you incorporating that's so called experience

849
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: or collaborative engagement. Food matters and being able to create

850
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 1: an event that marries the whether it's food, whether it's

851
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: an activity, that's what's that's what interesting. It's not just

852
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,959
Speaker 1: about selling an item, it's selling the experience. So let's

853
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 1: talk about the technology side of this a little bit.

854
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 1: And I don't mean Apple or Amazon. I mean the

855
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 1: traditional retailers. What are they doing to take advantage of

856
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 1: the fact that everyone walks around with the supercomputer in

857
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 1: their pocket? How are they using that loyalty programs? A

858
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: lot of retailers today are enhancing and updating their loyalty

859
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: programs so that they know the preferences of those consumers.

860
00:47:14,480 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 1: That's what technology allows them to do today. It used

861
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 1: to be just around ten of CAPEX spending was spent

862
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 1: on technology. Now for some retailers it could be up

863
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: Is there anything competitive with the UH with the Starbucks app?

864
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: I know that when I come into the city as

865
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,520
Speaker 1: soon as I'm above ground. The first thing I do

866
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 1: is order breakfast and a cup of falls. Pretty easy,

867
00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: isn't it. And and by the time there's a Starbucks

868
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:46,479
Speaker 1: on the ground floor of my building, by the time

869
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 1: I walk the three blocks to the building that are

870
00:47:49,360 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: they walk intore like here, they're handing it to you.

871
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: There's no interaction with a cash register. It's the easiest

872
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 1: thing in the world. And I always look at the

873
00:47:57,520 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 1: people online and wonder how come they haven't figured out

874
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:04,200
Speaker 1: the app is so awesome. I think people need to

875
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 1: know more about it, And I agree with you, But

876
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 1: think about the other cultural changes there? What about Uber?

877
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 1: What about left Those are the other things too, So

878
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:15,800
Speaker 1: so what does Uber do for retailers because I recall

879
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 1: hearing at one point in time people wanted to use

880
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 1: Uber as a delivery service, for physical delivery service or

881
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 1: take them to the mall or now look at people

882
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 1: when they're going out at night to have dinner and

883
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,360
Speaker 1: if they're having something to drink, they don't need to

884
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 1: drive themselves. So there's a service. We were just talking

885
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: about this yesterday over dinner. There there's two interesting services

886
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: that are both local. I don't know if they're national.

887
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: One is called Via, which isn't It's sort of like

888
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,799
Speaker 1: a group uber and it's just going north south on

889
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 1: the main thoroughfares in Manhattan and East West and you

890
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 1: get in, it's five bucks and they take you to

891
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 1: wherever you're going and then you get out, and it's

892
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: basically a group uber. And the other I'm trying to

893
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 1: remember you used it. I haven't, but people for sure,

894
00:49:02,239 --> 00:49:04,440
Speaker 1: especially if you're coming from Penn Station and you have

895
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 1: to go go Cross Down or or anything like that.

896
00:49:07,400 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: The other one I heard about is kind of fascinating.

897
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 1: You're out on a Friday night and I don't know

898
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 1: if this is in Manhattan, but I know it's definitely

899
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: on Long Island. You you order a driver, and what

900
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 1: I mean by that is a car will show up,

901
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 1: someone will come out. They will get in your car

902
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: and drive you home, followed by the other car who

903
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 1: then picks them up and takes them wherever they want

904
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 1: to go. I heard of. That's very smart. No do

905
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 1: we know worrying about driving under the influence. It's hey,

906
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 1: we could go out, we don't need to. Very smart.

907
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: And it's that's actual legitimate business. That's amazing, isn't it.

908
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 1: I think there's all new services and businesses that are

909
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:51,800
Speaker 1: being created. Look at look at Postmates for example, no Postmates.

910
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: Let's say you want a let's say you want a

911
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 1: channel lipstick you're going out or whatever it is, which

912
00:49:56,280 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 1: whatever cosmetics you want, but you don't have time to

913
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 1: go to an either st wars. You can basically order

914
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 1: it and they'll deliver to you physically to you, not

915
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:09,120
Speaker 1: through the mail. It's messenger to you. And look at

916
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 1: like netaport Netaporte. They're getting goods to you within an

917
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 1: hour or two hours. That's that's really high end stuff though,

918
00:50:15,840 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 1: isn't it? Is that going to work its way down

919
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 1: to the to us pleabs. It's working in urban areas

920
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: there's a density, so it's a combination of income density

921
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,680
Speaker 1: and delivery is relatively easy. You're not covering a lot

922
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 1: of a lot of square footage. So I know I

923
00:50:31,600 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 1: only have you for a finite amount of time before

924
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:37,399
Speaker 1: before you have to go on with your day. Let

925
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: let me go to some of my favorite questions that

926
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 1: I asked all of my guests. Um, we started talking

927
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:47,280
Speaker 1: about your background with Ron Barron, So you went from

928
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 1: Ron Barron to C. J. Lawrence to Bear is that exactly?

929
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: And so you were at was c J. Lawrence where

930
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,840
Speaker 1: they acquired or they were acquired by Deutsche Bank exactly?

931
00:50:59,040 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 1: All right? So how long were you therefore? I was

932
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 1: at Barren Capital for seven years, I was at c J.

933
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,360
Speaker 1: Lawrence for three years, and I was at bear Stearns

934
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 1: for twelve years. And if memory serves, I don't want

935
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: to embarrass you or anything, but you left Bear pretty

936
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,359
Speaker 1: well timed, if if I got that right, I left

937
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 1: to know six before it went away in two thousand eight,

938
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: and I hope you managed to liquidate some of your stock.

939
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 1: I was fortunate to be fortunate enough to be able

940
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:26,279
Speaker 1: to start TAG. TAG had been in the in the

941
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 1: planning for a couple of years, and now we're gonna

942
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 1: be celebrating our eleventh birthday. So we really haven't talked

943
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:38,240
Speaker 1: at all about you as a woman working on Wall Street.

944
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 1: Bear Stearns had a reputation as a kind of rough

945
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,520
Speaker 1: and tumbled place, But you don't strike me as a shrinking,

946
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,640
Speaker 1: violent or anything like that. And I've asked this to

947
00:51:47,719 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 1: all the women I've interviewed. What's it like being a

948
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 1: woman in an environment that sometimes is just overwrought with

949
00:51:56,880 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 1: with male stupidity. I think, prove your capability and show

950
00:52:01,960 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 1: that you're capable, that you're able, that you can drive

951
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:11,399
Speaker 1: market share, can drive business and it works. The capability

952
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 1: is what I'm all about. Being able to show that

953
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: you have the ability, that you're recognized by clients, and

954
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 1: that you do just as good work, if not better

955
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 1: than others. So I believe in the ability of people.

956
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:24,719
Speaker 1: So it's a true meritocracy. That's what I believe in.

957
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:28,279
Speaker 1: Show what you can do that that works. Tell us

958
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 1: a little bit about some of your early mentors. Obviously

959
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 1: Ron Barren, John Barron, who taught me about everything that

960
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: I've known. I mean, SIGs A Gallis at Jennison is

961
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 1: just someone I look up to every day and in

962
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 1: terms of what he's doing. I mean, I've watched Mario

963
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 1: Gabelly for years and watched his success in creating value

964
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,359
Speaker 1: and how he thinks about value companies. So it's so

965
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:50,520
Speaker 1: many of these money managers who have been so influential

966
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 1: in and what I do. Bill Miller at leg Mason,

967
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 1: I mean, he was one of the first investors I

968
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,360
Speaker 1: met on the South Side, and his his ability to

969
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 1: glean insights was trumendous. Both Goobelly and Miller have been

970
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:08,239
Speaker 1: guests on the show. They're fascinating, fascinating guys. Miller said

971
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,960
Speaker 1: something that I thought was so astute. I mean, Belly

972
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 1: said a million things that and and he was really fascinating.

973
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 1: Miller said, you know the problem with active management is

974
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: an active management. It's that most of the active managers

975
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 1: are closet indexers. And I've never quite heard it put

976
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 1: the way he did. He said, if you're gonna be

977
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 1: if you're gonna be a high cost active manager, you

978
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 1: have to be different from the index. But if you're

979
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: gonna be a closet indexer and be high cost, of course,

980
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,800
Speaker 1: of course investors are gonna leave you. What's what's the point.

981
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: He's really quite a fascinating guy. I didn't realize you, uh,

982
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:46,759
Speaker 1: you had you had known him? Um who Let's talk

983
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:50,800
Speaker 1: about other investors. Who else influenced your approach to thinking

984
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: about research, thinking about the product you create for for

985
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:56,400
Speaker 1: the by side investor. I think in terms of the

986
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 1: product that we create for the by side investor, you

987
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 1: have to be able to answer all from types of questions.

988
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 1: You look at investors who are growth investors, You look

989
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 1: at GARP investors, you look at deep value investors. So

990
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 1: you have to be able to answer those questions. And

991
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:12,400
Speaker 1: basically what I learned about look at Steve Mandel. Steve

992
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,959
Speaker 1: Mandel of Lone Pine. I was in his group years

993
00:54:14,960 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 1: ago when I was on the buy side, and he

994
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:19,840
Speaker 1: taught me how to understand brands, and he taught me

995
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,319
Speaker 1: about the three hundred and sixty degree loop of the

996
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: productivity cycle, something that's pretty creative. Explained that what is

997
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 1: the three sixty degree loop of the productivity cycle. It's basically,

998
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 1: how do you manage inventory, the velocity which it sells,

999
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:35,000
Speaker 1: the margin with a marginal which you earn, and the

1000
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: turner of the inventory to help drive earnings growth. And

1001
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 1: so that's consistent and that takes place, so that that

1002
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 1: that makes some sense um any other investors really changed

1003
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 1: the way you think about about retail. I think in

1004
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 1: terms of thinking about retail, I think it's a host

1005
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:55,400
Speaker 1: of investors. There isn't and frankly it's company executives. To

1006
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 1: Less Wexner, for example, of L Brands, I learned something

1007
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 1: new from him every time because to me, he's the

1008
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 1: dean of retail and he sees into the future, and

1009
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,799
Speaker 1: he always makes his brand younger and younger. That's how

1010
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 1: he stays relevant. So I think that's something that's to

1011
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: be gleaned and watched carefully. Michael Gould, former CEO Bloomingdale's

1012
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:20,359
Speaker 1: Michael glued Gould. Complete engagement with the customer, engagement with

1013
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: his staff, that's what makes the experience and what he

1014
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:28,399
Speaker 1: created so special. I did a show, um, I think

1015
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: it was Stephanie Rule early one morning and I had

1016
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 1: never met Gould before, and I have no idea who

1017
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 1: this gentleman is sitting next to me. And we started

1018
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 1: this conversation about retail. And during the break, I turned

1019
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 1: to Stephanie, go, this guy's great. Who is he? And

1020
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:49,520
Speaker 1: I believe the comment was idiot, that's the head of Bloomingdale's.

1021
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 1: Although it's Stephanie. So it was a little sold. Michael

1022
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 1: Gould's belief in people, his training and mentorship, best in class.

1023
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: He was really really the one time I met him,

1024
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 1: he very much. Uh, he he very much stayed with me.

1025
00:56:02,560 --> 00:56:05,239
Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit about books. It's always a

1026
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 1: favorite subject here. What are some of your favorite books?

1027
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 1: And I don't care if it's fiction, non fiction, investing

1028
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 1: related or not. What do you like to read. I

1029
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 1: love to read all the periodicals. I'm a huge Barons reader,

1030
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal, Business Week reader. I do Financial Times,

1031
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 1: and then I read what's relevant to my industry, Women's Where, Daily,

1032
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:28,160
Speaker 1: Business of Fashion. I like staying current because I don't

1033
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 1: believe you can look back. I'm all about looking forward.

1034
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: So the list you just named, that's forty hours a

1035
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:39,839
Speaker 1: week worth of reading easily. You're you're plowing through all

1036
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,160
Speaker 1: those periodicals. That's so I get to the office five

1037
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:44,280
Speaker 1: in the morning. Got to be able to know what's happening.

1038
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 1: Women's Where Delhi is still very relevant. Yes it is.

1039
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:49,720
Speaker 1: It's relevant to the industry. It gives you a pulse.

1040
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:53,440
Speaker 1: Business of Fashion is relevant to w gs N is

1041
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 1: very relevant. What is Business of Fashion? Basically takes key

1042
00:56:57,160 --> 00:57:00,800
Speaker 1: topics in the consumer world and talk about how different

1043
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:05,400
Speaker 1: companies are integrated, are being integrated literally business effects. I

1044
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 1: don't even know such a thing existed. That's that's fascinating.

1045
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 1: And the last one you mentioned, the other one right

1046
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:13,359
Speaker 1: after that, w gs N interesting. W was a big

1047
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: magazine for a long and it still is. It's not

1048
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: Women's Where. It's not the same as women's wear daily,

1049
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:19,760
Speaker 1: but it still is and there isn't any of those

1050
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 1: fashion magazines. I don't read too because I want to

1051
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 1: pick up on the trends. So you'll so if you're

1052
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 1: thumbing through a Glamour or a a Red Book or whatever,

1053
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 1: you're actually seeing things that you might not see elsewhere.

1054
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:35,760
Speaker 1: And I'll go back to merchants, say, wait, I now

1055
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 1: saw six dark maroon boots. Is dark maroon the trend

1056
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,360
Speaker 1: that I should be noticing Because I'm a believer in patterns.

1057
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:47,280
Speaker 1: If you both put together patterns, patterns can become reality

1058
00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 1: of what consumers adopt. And I'm all out there trying

1059
00:57:50,160 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 1: to understand what they're adopting now, what they're not adopting now,

1060
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,120
Speaker 1: and what the future could be. So if enough people

1061
00:57:56,160 --> 00:57:58,560
Speaker 1: are advertising and enough people are seeing it, enough people

1062
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 1: are buying it, that that becomes a full blown trend.

1063
00:58:01,520 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 1: And marrying that with the quantitative, what could that mean

1064
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 1: to sales? What could that mean to margins? Which companies

1065
00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: doesn't benefit? That's the story of retail analysis. So you've

1066
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 1: been covering retail for over time years, Um, what's changed

1067
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: since you joined the industry? What is different about covering

1068
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:24,080
Speaker 1: retail stocks? Today than than when you started. Everything, everything

1069
00:58:24,320 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 1: and everything in terms of how fast goods are produced,

1070
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 1: how you learn about goods, emailing, blogging, instagramming, what what's changes?

1071
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: Physical stores they're smaller. What's changed? Some of them smaller

1072
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 1: in terms of size, And there's definitely more destinations spending.

1073
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 1: What about online? And what about the global reach? So

1074
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 1: everything's changed about retailing and what it is today. I

1075
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 1: know it won't be in ten years, but I'm going

1076
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 1: to be there to watch every path of it. Because remember,

1077
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:56,400
Speaker 1: I've got a grandmother who's a hundred and two years old.

1078
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 1: God bless you. So so you have good genes and

1079
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 1: you're going to be doing this for a long time.

1080
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 1: Not a job, it's my life. I wake up in

1081
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 1: the morning. That's really impressive. Thank you. Um that that's

1082
00:59:11,040 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 1: some really good genes. Well, we'll take some blood from

1083
00:59:13,080 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 1: you on the way out to run a we'll run

1084
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 1: a little genetic study. UM. So we just you talked

1085
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: about all the things that have changed, and then the

1086
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:22,960
Speaker 1: other big thing is going to be I believe in

1087
00:59:23,000 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 1: this theory of ization, personalization, theory ofation. So how a

1088
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:29,840
Speaker 1: company is gonna be different? Because now if you know

1089
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:34,640
Speaker 1: more about the customer, there's personalization, there is localization out there,

1090
00:59:35,080 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 1: there is customization out there, and regionalization. So now businesses

1091
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 1: that were big become smaller to the blending of mobile

1092
00:59:43,400 --> 00:59:47,280
Speaker 1: and technology are very influential to consumer spending and they're

1093
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 1: only going to become more so. And what that could

1094
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 1: give you opportunity, give sales opportunity, and it gives margin opportunity. Hello,

1095
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:58,120
Speaker 1: earnings growth. So you just answered my next question. What

1096
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 1: that was past? What what's few? Um? So let me

1097
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 1: shift gears. This is a question that always comes from

1098
01:00:05,840 --> 01:00:08,880
Speaker 1: a certain email or what do you do outside of

1099
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 1: the office to stay physically fit? What do you do

1100
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 1: to stay mentally acute? And what do you just do

1101
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 1: to relax or for enjoyment when you're not shopping. So basically,

1102
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 1: by the way, I shouldn't say that, because I don't

1103
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:25,040
Speaker 1: mean it in a denigrating way, but I know they're

1104
01:00:25,080 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 1: gonna be some when you're out doing My wife and

1105
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:30,919
Speaker 1: I call joking. We call it economic research. When you're

1106
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:34,080
Speaker 1: out doing research. When you're out in retail stores, I

1107
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 1: don't mean shopping in a I hope that doesn't come

1108
01:00:38,080 --> 01:00:39,880
Speaker 1: because because you know what I mean, when you're out

1109
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:45,360
Speaker 1: looking at stores when you're kicking tires. Effectively you're out

1110
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 1: in store shopping. When you're not doing that, I'm doing

1111
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 1: that all the time by walking, traveling, swimming or all

1112
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 1: the things. Going to restaurants. I want to see culture

1113
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 1: and be able to see how that in great c

1114
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 1: into retail. And what do you do to relax if

1115
01:01:03,160 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 1: you want to just kick back. That's the walking part,

1116
01:01:06,120 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what it is. I mean, that's being

1117
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:12,240
Speaker 1: outside and seeing the sky because we're always in offices

1118
01:01:12,280 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 1: all the time, and seeing what's new, and typing like up,

1119
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 1: here's the trend, here's a trend. You gotta because you're

1120
01:01:18,120 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 1: not gonna remember things right away, so I love typing

1121
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:24,880
Speaker 1: and just writing it down. That's really that's really interesting. Um,

1122
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 1: all right, My last two questions, these are my favorite questions.

1123
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:30,640
Speaker 1: If a millennial were to come to you or someone

1124
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 1: just starting their career and say, I'm interested in becoming

1125
01:01:34,240 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 1: a retail analyst, what sort of advice would you give them.

1126
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 1: I'd say, find a category, find a topic that you

1127
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:42,280
Speaker 1: love that you want to be an expert at. Think

1128
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 1: about it. I was fortunate Ron Baron gave me the

1129
01:01:44,320 --> 01:01:47,680
Speaker 1: opportunity I tried trading, I tried being a salesperson, and

1130
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 1: I found I loved the ten k's, the ten queues

1131
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:53,720
Speaker 1: and understanding companies. Find out something that you love that

1132
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 1: you want to spend all the time at to become

1133
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 1: an expert. Being an expert gives you the ability to

1134
01:01:59,800 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 1: have answers or be able to be valued and to

1135
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 1: have insight. And that's what you have to find. Find

1136
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:08,520
Speaker 1: a mentor who you can learn from. That's quite interesting.

1137
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 1: And my final question before we get thrown out of here, Um,

1138
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 1: what is it that you know about covering retail today

1139
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:19,640
Speaker 1: that you wish you knew when you started those years ago?

1140
01:02:20,760 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 1: What pitfalls companies can get into and how they can

1141
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 1: emerge from them. So give us a couple of examples

1142
01:02:26,800 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 1: that that's a that's a fascinating thing because very often

1143
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 1: we fall in love with these companies and the next

1144
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 1: thing we know, they stumble, and hey, how did that happen?

1145
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: And and how do they turn themselves around? So, look,

1146
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:42,080
Speaker 1: you have companies like a coach. It's stumbled that became overdistributed.

1147
01:02:42,200 --> 01:02:45,600
Speaker 1: Now it's become less distributed. They reinvigorate when you say

1148
01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:49,480
Speaker 1: over distributed. They were somewhat of a limited in too

1149
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:52,360
Speaker 1: many department store and then then they were once they're everywhere,

1150
01:02:52,720 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 1: they lose a little PRIs and also managing their stores

1151
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 1: more carefully, investing in marketing. Look at all brands. What's

1152
01:02:59,360 --> 01:03:01,840
Speaker 1: happening now. L Brand's got rid of is getting rid

1153
01:03:01,840 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 1: of swimwear. They're reducing the level of promotions to come

1154
01:03:04,840 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 1: out a healthier brand and attract younger, younger consumers. So

1155
01:03:08,640 --> 01:03:11,680
Speaker 1: you have to evaluate when a brand stumbles, is there

1156
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 1: a way back or is there just not a way back?

1157
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 1: When you look at for example, today, you just had

1158
01:03:17,280 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 1: the apparel company UM Limited Brands, which is the old

1159
01:03:21,680 --> 01:03:24,600
Speaker 1: apparel Sour. It's not part of Limited UM. You just

1160
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 1: had that file for chapter eleven didn't come back. Why

1161
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: they didn't provide differentiation When you think of other companies,

1162
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:36,400
Speaker 1: providing differentiation is what allows you to survive. That's the key.

1163
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: We have been speaking with Dana Telsey of the Telsey

1164
01:03:39,800 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 1: Advisory Group. If you enjoy this conversation, be sure and

1165
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 1: look up an inch or down on the inch on

1166
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:48,600
Speaker 1: Apple iTunes and you can see any of the other

1167
01:03:48,760 --> 01:03:53,439
Speaker 1: hundred and ten or so such prior conversations. We love

1168
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:56,640
Speaker 1: your comments and feedback, be sure and email us at

1169
01:03:57,360 --> 01:04:01,560
Speaker 1: m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. If people want

1170
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:03,800
Speaker 1: to find your work. I forgot to ask you this before.

1171
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:08,439
Speaker 1: It's donel me Detaelsey at Telsea Group group dot com

1172
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:12,360
Speaker 1: and the website is Telsea Group dot com. Easy enough.

1173
01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 1: We've been speaking with Dana Telsey. I would be remiss

1174
01:04:16,280 --> 01:04:18,440
Speaker 1: if I did not forget. If I'm going to say

1175
01:04:18,480 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 1: that again, I would be remiss if I did not

1176
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:24,160
Speaker 1: thank Taylor Riggs are Booker and Michael Batnick, the head

1177
01:04:24,160 --> 01:04:27,919
Speaker 1: of research, who helped prepare all of these questions. I'm

1178
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 1: Barry Ridolts. You've been listening to Masters in Business on

1179
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:32,440
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.