1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. 2 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 3: A five dollars? 4 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 2: This is a raginal lesson. 5 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 4: Cowby tackled hit one. 6 00:00:14,680 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. 7 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 3: Humans need fantasy to be. 8 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 5: My goodness, that was good, I suppose best, relentless, refusing 9 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 5: to give up. 10 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless. 11 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: And welcome to the Fantasy a Flex Props Podcast. A'm 12 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 2: your host, Chris Raybond. This is Week thirteen. Joye is 13 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 2: always by my dude, John Kerner. John, what's going on? 14 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:50,840 Speaker 2: Glad you're okay? 15 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,880 Speaker 3: I heard you had a pretty eventful evening last night. 16 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, I got into a bit of a fender bender, 17 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 5: but I'm okay, hit my head, pretty good on my headress, 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 5: but just happy. Everything's okay. But escaped on last night 19 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 5: for sure. 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 3: All right, So obviously we won't judge you even if 21 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 3: you go h and five. 22 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 5: No, no, no excuse, I bouncing back this week. I 23 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:18,039 Speaker 5: don't care what's going on inside of my spreadsheet. I am. 24 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: I am going five and oh let's. 25 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 2: Do it, all right, let's get into it, and as always, 26 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 2: this is the Fantasy Flex Props podcast presented by Prize Picks. 27 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: We will give our top ten props for the week, 28 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 2: but we'll always start with a showdown breakdown for Sunday 29 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 2: Night Football. I will have a write up at Action 30 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 2: Network dot com for the game and betting it. But 31 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:45,559 Speaker 2: let's talk about Broncos Chiefs from a DFS perspective. Here, 32 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 2: Chiefs coming off the buy, Broncos coming off a big 33 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 2: win against the Chargers. I think everyone else in that 34 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 2: division has six wins except the Chiefs who have seven. 35 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 2: So you should have a motivated both teams motivated here 36 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 2: who you like in the captain spot? 37 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 5: Yeah, so, I mean it always starts and ends with 38 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 5: Tyreek Hill whenever the Chiefs are on a showdown slate. 39 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 5: I don't think he's disappointed yet this year on a 40 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 5: showdown slate, so clearly you know he has the highest ceiling. 41 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 5: Probably gonna be very shocky. So if you want to 42 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 5: mix it up a bit, I think Clyde Edwards Hilaire 43 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 5: is pretty sneaky as a captain play. You can really 44 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 5: play around with a funky game script and have a 45 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 5: unique lineup. If you have Clyde Edwards Hilaire in your 46 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 5: captain slot, you know the Chiefs are ten point favorites. 47 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 5: They're gonna be a bit more run heavy this weekend. 48 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 5: Back in week eleven, like I thought Edwards Hilaire and 49 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 5: Darrel Williams might split carries a bit, but you know, 50 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 5: Edwards Hilaire really dominated touches. He had twelve carries to 51 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:46,959 Speaker 5: Darryl's five. So in a game scorer like this, I 52 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 5: think it favors c thh quite a bit. We'd love 53 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 5: to stack him with the chief defense just you know, 54 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 5: expect an ugly game where the Broncos don't score any 55 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 5: points and the Chiefs can run in a ton. I 56 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 5: think has play a pass where I think, if he's 57 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 5: in the captain slot, could be a slight, slight winner. 58 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 4: You think that you think the the line is correct? 59 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 4: It because I actually think, yeah, yeah, no, I agree that. 60 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 4: I'm just saying that the Chiefs are big favorites. I 61 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 4: would not be surprised if they blow them out. 62 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 5: But again, what what's the Chiefs against the spread record 63 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 5: in the past calendar year two. 64 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 2: And thirteen to get is the favorite of the more 65 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 2: than a touchdown. But more importantly, Teddy covers is twenty 66 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 2: four and five on the road so this is I mean, 67 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 2: I'm just saying for people out there, it's gonna be 68 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 2: a closer game than you know. In the line indicates 69 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 2: I wouldn't. I wouldn't discount the the Broncos here from 70 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 2: showing up. They've kind of done that all year, you know, 71 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 2: I don't A lot of people didn't even expect them 72 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 2: to be competitive against the Chargers last week. 73 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 1: Either. 74 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 3: But yeah, I think is interesting. 75 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 2: The thing about Ceh though, I don't know, the numbers 76 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 2: might have been deceiving because I've heard a lot of 77 00:03:55,480 --> 00:03:58,840 Speaker 2: people kind of, you know, we're really happy what he 78 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 2: what he did in that game against the Cowboys, but 79 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: he only played forty seven percent of the snap So 80 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:06,200 Speaker 2: I don't know if it was kind of a design 81 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 2: thing where to get a lot of touches on the 82 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 2: snaps he did get, or it was more so that 83 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 2: just Williams did not get a lot of touches on 84 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 2: the snatch that he got. But kwide Edwards h Layer's 85 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 2: snap count was actually his second lowest of the season 86 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 2: outside of the game that he got hurt in, So 87 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 2: that's that's something to mout. I mean, he's coming off 88 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 2: to buy so I would assume it would jump back up. 89 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 2: But that is something to kind of keep in mind here, 90 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 2: given we have Andy Reid Shenanigans in the backfield. And 91 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 2: then for the Broncos, I mean, you know, Courtland Sutton's 92 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: really struggled, you know, since since Jerry Judy got back. 93 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 2: So I think Judy is is still the top guy 94 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 2: for me in terms of their receiving corps. But really, 95 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:50,840 Speaker 2: I think you got to get in some Javonte and 96 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,839 Speaker 2: Melvin Gordon as well, because the Bronco's, knowing their strategy, 97 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: they're built to kind of beat the Chiefs. And one 98 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,480 Speaker 2: of the things is that Fangio defense with the two 99 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: deep states and the other one is being able to 100 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,720 Speaker 2: just run the ball all game. So I think both 101 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 2: of their running backs here are going to get a 102 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 2: lot of work and that the game plan is going 103 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 2: to kind of be built around those guys. And we've 104 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 2: seen that, you know, even last week, none of them 105 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 2: if you look at the Broncos receiving numbers, no one 106 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 2: really did anything, and yet they win the game by 107 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 2: two touchdowns against the Chargers. So I think Williams and 108 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 2: Gordon are going to get some I'm gonna have some 109 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 2: of those guys too, But yeah, it's hard to go 110 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 2: away from Tyreek Hill as a top guy. And Kelsey 111 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 2: is you know, I think he's obviously in that conversation. 112 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 3: But the Broncos I believe. 113 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're eleventh to DVOA against tight ends and they're 114 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 2: adjusted receiving yards per game is forty point nine, which 115 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 2: is also in the top eight for defenses, so you 116 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 2: know they haven't been as vulnerable to the tight end position. 117 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,760 Speaker 2: They are number twenty nine in DVA against number one 118 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:56,800 Speaker 2: wide receivers. 119 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 5: What about cheek Coats? Yeah, so you mentioned Javonte Williams. 120 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 5: I think he's He's always a great play, but especially 121 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 5: with Melvin Gordon. Uh, he's iffy for this game. He's 122 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 5: gonna misspractice today. It's Thursday, so he might not suit up. 123 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 5: So if he's out, Javonte is going to be such 124 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 5: a no brainer that I might pivot some lineups to 125 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 5: Mike Boone. Yeah, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if 126 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 5: he gets five to ten touches. Definitely a vulture touchdown 127 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 5: candidate and Mike Boone, So I'm gonna have some Mike 128 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 5: Boone shares if Melvin Gordon is out and obviously, Javonte 129 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 5: Williams will be a smash spot, uh if if Gordon's out. 130 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,600 Speaker 5: But on the chief side, you know, it seems like 131 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 5: they're phasing out Miquel Hardman. His his routes run rate 132 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 5: had been around twenty six percent the past two games, 133 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,239 Speaker 5: and Byron Pringle has bounced up to sixty six percent 134 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 5: the past two So it looks like Byron Pringle is 135 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 5: the number two receiver. So I'll have plenty of uh, 136 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 5: you know, Pringle shares. And then Josh Gordon. I mean, 137 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 5: why the hell not because his routes round had been 138 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 5: around forty percent are a few games now in a row. 139 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 5: He's just not seeing targets. So maybe after the buye 140 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 5: they'll figure something out with him, So I might have 141 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 5: some Gordon chairs. But it's you know, he's looking like 142 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 5: a bus this year, unfortunately. And then you know, it 143 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 5: would pay me not to mention the backup tight end 144 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,360 Speaker 5: here and Noah Gray. They've been mixing him, mixing him 145 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 5: in a bit more the past couple of games. With 146 00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 5: the twenty five percent routes run rate, he's seen two 147 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 5: end zone targets this year, so again he'd be sort 148 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 5: of a touchdown Vulture slate breaker. If you have like 149 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 5: a share to of Noah Gray here, would not be 150 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 5: surprised he scores a touchdown and then on the Broncos side, 151 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 5: I think Tim Patrick he's always overlooked usually, so after 152 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 5: a couple of slow games, I think he could break 153 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 5: out here. I mean he's he's seen the biggest boost 154 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 5: against man coverage among Broncos pass catchers. So a team 155 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 5: like the Chiefs that run man coverage above a league average, right, 156 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 5: I think Patrick is a good play here as well. 157 00:07:57,440 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm surprised he didn't refer to Josh Gordon as well. 158 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 5: That would mean he's going off right anytime I do 159 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 5: a play on words, I. 160 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: Don't know about the rust didn't work for Russell Wilson 161 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 2: and Rust Wilton. 162 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 5: He's sticking with the Russ. Yeah, I guess that's what 163 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 5: it was. 164 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 2: Uh. 165 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 3: No, Josh Gordon. 166 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: I feel like he's he hasn't been good in like 167 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: years now, I mean obviously, but uh, you know this 168 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: is like we got hyped about him, well is it 169 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: when he's on the Seahawks a couple of years ago 170 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: and he didn't do anything and now he's Yeah, I 171 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: mean he's been on the he's had Russell Wilson before 172 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 2: the Rust, and he's had Patrick Mahomes and he's still 173 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 2: done absolutely nothing, which probably tells you all you need to. 174 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 3: Know about, you know, where his guest is at these days. 175 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 2: But yeah, you know, Pringle hadn't been a guy that 176 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 2: was producing much against man coverage. But he got the 177 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 2: one catch against Dallas. You know, we went for like 178 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 2: thirty seven yards and killed my under Oh that's right, 179 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 2: brut Yeah. So I mean, you know, with Pringle's he's 180 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 2: probably not going to be like a high volume guy 181 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 2: against this Bronco team because they do like to run 182 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 2: a lot of man coverage. But you know, if he 183 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 2: just gets like that one or two long catches, it 184 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 2: could be enough. Because yeah, I've been seeing the same 185 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:09,079 Speaker 2: thing in the numbers. They're phasing out hardman for whatever reason. 186 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 2: I mean, And maybe he's back after the bye. You 187 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 2: never know if guys are dealing with some kind of 188 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 2: injury at this time of year, though I would doubt 189 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,520 Speaker 2: it because he also returns kicks and he's still been 190 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 2: doing that. But yeah, it's you know, when he comes 191 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: to the Chiefs, I think he has to always consider, 192 00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: like all of their receivers, like even DeMarcus Robinson, Like 193 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 2: he's not going to run a lot of routes, but 194 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 2: he could get like that touchdown or whatever. So you know, 195 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 2: it's just what you got to do on a slate 196 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 2: like this. 197 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 3: But all right, let's. 198 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 2: Get into our top ten props of the week lines 199 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:44,199 Speaker 2: courtesy of Prize Picks and Sean. 200 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 3: Let's start at quarterback. Who you got? 201 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 5: So I like Matt Ryan over two hundred and forty 202 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 5: and a half passing yards against the Buccaneers. I'm projecting 203 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 5: on this Coulster a two fifty five, not because I 204 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 5: think he's good right now. He's been brutal the past 205 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 5: three games. I think he's yet to to crack two 206 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 5: hundred yards. But this game script should be pretty past heavy. 207 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 5: You know, the Falcons are a eleven point underdogs here, 208 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 5: Tampa Bay's a pass final defense, and you know, Matt Ryan, 209 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 5: he's still missing Calvin Ridley, but he still has you know, 210 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 5: cordoall Patterson, Kyle Pitts and even Russell Gagelein on here. 211 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 5: So I think he'll do it just based on the 212 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 5: game script alone. So I just want to put out there, 213 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 5: I don't think he's he's you know, playing well right now. 214 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 5: But I'm still projecting around two fifty five just based 215 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 5: on the matchup. 216 00:10:29,040 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's been a struggle for for Matt Ryan 217 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:37,960 Speaker 2: without without Calvin Ridley, I have him over this barely 218 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 2: have him had about two forty six. 219 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 3: So actually I'm pretty spot on on the line. So, yeah, 220 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 3: you're showing a little more value than I do. 221 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 2: I am, But yeah, it's you know, the Bucks defense 222 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 2: has gotten lit of better. 223 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 3: I think that's what's interesting. You know, we kind of 224 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 3: ragged on. 225 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 2: Him earlier in the year, but they are up to 226 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 2: eighth in past defense TV away. But I do think 227 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 2: the Bucks are gonna put up a big number on 228 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,560 Speaker 2: off which that's usually the determining factor in a lot 229 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 2: of these passing props. All right, For my quarterback prop, 230 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 2: I am going with Justin Herbert over two hundred and 231 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 2: seventy nine and a half passing yards against the Cincinnati 232 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,959 Speaker 2: Bengals at prize picks. Herbert has gone over this number 233 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 2: in seven of his eleven games. Cincinnati Chargers is one 234 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 2: of the highest totaled games on the slate here. 235 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 3: I think Cincinnati's offense is legit. 236 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 2: I think they'll be able to put some points up 237 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:36,079 Speaker 2: on this Charger defense, which is really struggling despite having 238 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 2: a defensive minded head coach, and that's going to force 239 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 2: Herbert to throw the ball around the yard. So if 240 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 2: it ain't broke, don't fix it. He's been over this 241 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 2: number more times than not in Cincinnati, has been a 242 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 2: below average slightly below average pass defense, coming in at 243 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 2: nineteenth in pass defense DVOA. 244 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 5: Yeah, I like this as well. You know, he seems 245 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 5: like it has a really high floor right now. Last 246 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 5: week he struggled. He threw some really erratic passes. One 247 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 5: of those interceptions it was really bad. But that kind 248 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:07,000 Speaker 5: of helps to this over. You know, we want to 249 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 5: keep seeing him be aggressive, push the ball down the field. 250 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 5: So yeah, I'm projecting Hi closer to eighty five. So 251 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 5: similar to the Matt Ryan. I'm not trying a ton 252 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 5: of value, but certainly think he has a high flour 253 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 5: in this market. 254 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 3: Right we going for your first running back prep, So. 255 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 5: I'm going with Miles Gaskin over forty five and a 256 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 5: half rushing yards against the Giants. He's operated as the 257 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 5: workhorse back during this four game win streak, so I 258 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 5: think they continue to ride him. And last week, you know, 259 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 5: he finished with sixteen rushing attempts. Phil Bonzi had twelve. 260 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 5: But if you look at when the rushing attempts came, 261 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 5: I mean Phil Bunze got ten of those twelve attempts 262 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 5: in the second half, when you know the Dolphins had 263 00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:49,120 Speaker 5: blown out the Panthers by then. So I think Gaskin 264 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 5: could have ended up with twenty plus rush attempts if 265 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 5: the game was close. So you know, he hasn't been 266 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 5: the most efficient back lately, mainly due to their just 267 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 5: horrible offensive line. But I think against the Giants, you know, 268 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 5: their thirty first rank dv AWA against the run defense, 269 00:13:05,400 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 5: that'll at least help his efficiency. And I think he'll 270 00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 5: see you know, fifteen to seventeen carries here, So I 271 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 5: think he has really high force. 272 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: I'll like over forty five and a half rushing yards. 273 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, which like the Dolphins are just trying to find 274 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 2: a backup to replace Malcolm Brown who went on injury reserve. 275 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 2: And that's more why you know they cycled through Duke 276 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 2: Johnson at one point and then Philip lindsay, so, yeah, 277 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 2: I have Gaskin at fifty two. 278 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 3: Rushing yards against the Giants in this matchup. He's been there. 279 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 2: He's been there, guy, and he's and remember this was 280 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 2: what happened down to stretch last year as well. Gaskin 281 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,000 Speaker 2: really was their kind of weed back there and it 282 00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 2: didn't matter what was going on behind him in that backfield. 283 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,719 Speaker 3: So yeah, all right for. 284 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 2: My first running back prop, I'll stick with the Chargers. 285 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 2: I'm going Austin Eckler over forty nine and a half 286 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 2: rushing yards. You know, I don't know what's going on 287 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 2: with the Chargers here, and it must be some you know, 288 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 2: must be to worry about them in the market or something. 289 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 2: I know there's a little drizzle or something projected for 290 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:09,120 Speaker 2: this game, but that doesn't explain why the quarterback and 291 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 2: running backs props I think are too low. Eko's been 292 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 2: over forty nine and a half in eight out of 293 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 2: eleven games, and I think after there, every time you 294 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 2: see a team lose a game like this, I think they, 295 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 2: you know, like in an upset fashion. Usually you hear 296 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 2: like the coach wants to kind of recommit to the 297 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 2: run game a little bit. So there's no reason that 298 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 2: Austin Eckler shouldn't go over this number. In you know, 299 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: kind of on average, Cincinnati has been a little better 300 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 2: in run defense than pass their ninth against the run 301 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,560 Speaker 2: nineteenth against the past. But anytime you're looking at a 302 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 2: guy that's gone over an eight of eleven and just 303 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 2: needs one carry really to bust this number wide open, 304 00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 2: I think you got to go with it. And again, 305 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 2: what I think is still going to be a back 306 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 2: and forth, offensive minded kind of game. 307 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 3: So going Echoer over forty nine and a half, I 308 00:14:58,720 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 3: have him in the high fifty. 309 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 5: Are you not worried about the Herbert and Eckler props 310 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 5: being sort of like a reverse correlation here, No. 311 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 3: Because I just think they're too well, both of them. 312 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: Like, yeah, like if you look at the past performance 313 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,080 Speaker 2: for the season, again, Herbert's over his number in seven 314 00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 2: of eleven, Eckler's over his number in eight of eleven. 315 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 2: That's a combined fifteen of twenty two. So you're essentially 316 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 2: looking at like a sixty six percent hit rate even 317 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:27,480 Speaker 2: with you know, yeah, that correlation, So that says. 318 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 5: Yeah, I know, yeah, I know said two weeks six 319 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 5: and week ten or the weeks where Herbert through for 320 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 5: less than two hundred yards and Eckler was also under 321 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 5: his numbers as well, So I feel like Eckler kind 322 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 5: of thrives when when Herbert does well, which makes sense, 323 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 5: but yeah, usually you don't want to stack you know, 324 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 5: passing yards and rushing yards on the same team. But 325 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 5: I think these two, just looking at the game log, 326 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 5: they certainly correlate in the right direction here. 327 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 2: Well, you know, the Chargers, the issue has been you know, 328 00:15:57,560 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: offensive consistency, right, Like Herbert nails about on a lot 329 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 2: a third down, So Herbert's going to keep them on 330 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: the field, They'll get another fresh set of downs, and 331 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 2: Ector is getting at least one more carrier every time 332 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 2: that happened. So because he's really taken over that backfield too. 333 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: Like remember at one point in his career, everyone was like, 334 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 2: is he a true three down back? And then everyone 335 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 2: saw him doing that oh yeah, the one arm pull ups, 336 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 2: and they're like, oh yeah, okay he is. 337 00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 3: He's strong. Okay, he should be he should be fine. 338 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 2: But yeah, I think most of these are plus TV Sean, 339 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 2: where are you going with your second running back prop? 340 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 5: So I'm going the other side on this game. I 341 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 5: think this correlates well with your two picks. But Joe 342 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 5: Mixon over eleven and a half receiving yards. You know, 343 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 5: I expect Mixon to have a huge down the ground 344 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 5: as well. This Chargers defense is definitely a run funnel one. 345 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 5: They pretty much invite the run. But you know, I 346 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 5: like the over on his receiving yards as well. I 347 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 5: think it's sneaky because you know, he had while he 348 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 5: hasn't gone over this number in the past two games, 349 00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 5: it's because they blew out both teams. So this game 350 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 5: should be close. From the sound of it. You might 351 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 5: be on the Chargers plus three and a half here, 352 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 5: but you know, I think it's going to be close. 353 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 5: And you know, he ran a season high sixty four 354 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,879 Speaker 5: percent routes run rate last week, had four catches for 355 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:10,679 Speaker 5: minus two yards, so that was kind of flicky. 356 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:12,680 Speaker 1: But he's seen four. 357 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 5: Plus targets in three of the past four games, so yeah, 358 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 5: and his receiving prop. His receptions prop is two and 359 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,479 Speaker 5: a half, and I think he can go over this 360 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 5: pretty easily with two catches. So the market just doesn't 361 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 5: line up here. I think this should be closer to 362 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 5: fifteen and a half. And you know, market like this, 363 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 5: four yards is massive. Each yard is probably worth six 364 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 5: percent and ev so I just think this is four 365 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 5: or five yards too low. 366 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have it about fifteen, so I have it 367 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 2: a couple of yards over as well. I think the 368 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 2: reason the market is pretty low on him is the 369 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: Chargers are allowing the third fewest schedule adjusted receiving yards 370 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 2: to back according to. 371 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 3: Football Outside is just twenty eight point two. 372 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 2: So they've been one of the harder teams to throw on, 373 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 2: all right, we Yeah, I don't. I mean, I don't 374 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 2: know how I shouldn't say harder teams to throw on, 375 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 2: harder teams to get yardage out of the backfield on 376 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 2: for whatever reason. So, but they're eleventh in DVA, so 377 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,679 Speaker 2: it doesn't quite line up, you know with the efficiency. 378 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,360 Speaker 2: You know, it's more middle of the road in terms 379 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 2: of the efficiency. So yeah, I haven't projected over as well. 380 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 2: And it should be an offensive kind of game. 381 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:17,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at their game log. When 382 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 5: they face running backs that can catch out of the backfield, 383 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,479 Speaker 5: they typically will leave league average. They faced the the 384 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 5: Ravens and the Eagles, and the Eagles decided to run 385 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 5: the ball fifty times a game, so I think that 386 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 5: might be suppressing their overall stats. But it seems like 387 00:18:32,760 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 5: like Javonte Williams went off last week touching the ball, 388 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 5: so I think. 389 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:38,239 Speaker 1: I wouldn't worry about it here. 390 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 5: I just this is more of just picking on the 391 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 5: number because yeah, eleven and a halfs is too low here. 392 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 2: Yeah. And the Bengals receiving back Chris Evans, I know 393 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 2: he popped up on the injury report. I don't know 394 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,120 Speaker 2: if he's going to play this week. I don't think 395 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 2: he was practicing Wednesday. Okay, For my second running back prop, 396 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,520 Speaker 2: I'm going with Jonathan Taylor over one hundred point five 397 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: rushing yards. He's been over this in six of the 398 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 2: past nine games. They're essentially treating him like Derrick Henry. 399 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 2: And unlike last week where they faced the Tampa Bay Bucks, 400 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 2: who are one of the best run defenses in the NFL, 401 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 2: this week they face the Houston Texans. The Houston Texans 402 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:21,439 Speaker 2: are a run funnel. They're sixth in DVOA against the 403 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:26,040 Speaker 2: past somehow and twenty fifth in DVOA against the run. 404 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 3: And John you called it all the time. 405 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 2: Anytime Johnson Sale is facing a bad run defense, probably 406 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 2: going for a buck fifty l East. 407 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 5: Yes, yes, and he deserves the hut like the triple 408 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,199 Speaker 5: digit probably kind of scared me, not gonna lie, but 409 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 5: I'm proud of you to just take it anyway because 410 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:48,199 Speaker 5: it doesn't matter, right, So would not be surprised if 411 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:50,400 Speaker 5: he finishes with well over one hundred and fifty here 412 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 5: against the Texans. 413 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 2: Well, you know, I just go by my numbers, and 414 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,639 Speaker 2: usually I'm kind of incorporating regression to the meaning and whatnot, 415 00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 2: so a lot of times it's just hard to get 416 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 2: to those extremes. But my model has Jonathan Taylor projected 417 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 2: for twenty one carries for one hundred and fifteen yards. 418 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 5: So okay, yeah, I'm well over now I was gonna ask. 419 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 5: I'm twenty and a half carries, so just one half 420 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 5: lower than you. And my yards per attempt is five 421 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 5: point two five What were you? You were like five 422 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 5: point five? 423 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: Right? 424 00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 2: Uh? 425 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 3: Yep? Five point four to nine yep. 426 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 1: So I can argue with that that. 427 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,400 Speaker 2: Might be the might be a record, cause I think 428 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,480 Speaker 2: even Nick Chubb topped out at like five point four 429 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 2: or five point two or something. 430 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 3: So but no Taylor. 431 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 2: I mean the thing about Taylor is and what my 432 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 2: model looks at is yards after contact. So you know, 433 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 2: at this point in the season, now we're kind of 434 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 2: at the point where we have a large enough sample 435 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 2: for it to be confident to project. You know, some 436 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 2: of these guys, you know or tailor to that high 437 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 2: early in the year. You know, we're kind of still 438 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,360 Speaker 2: kind of going off last year. So you can't just say, oh, 439 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 2: this guy's going to be breaking out of tackles and 440 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 2: things like that, because a lot of times running backs 441 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 2: look completely different one year to the next. 442 00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 3: They get old really fast. 443 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 2: But yeah, Taylor's in mid season form, and you know, 444 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 2: I expect them to have one hundred drog games any 445 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 2: type of matchup that's not against like the Saints or 446 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:09,119 Speaker 2: the Bucks at this point. 447 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:13,680 Speaker 3: So even then, right, yeah, all. 448 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: Right, let's let's get to receivers. We do two receiving crops. 449 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: Could be a wide receiver, can be a tight end. John, 450 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 2: where are you going to first one? So this correlates 451 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 2: pretty well with your tailor prop. But I'm going with 452 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 2: Michael Pittman under sixty and a half receiving yards against 453 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,800 Speaker 2: the Texans. I mean, you said the Colts should be 454 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 2: able to lean on Jonathan Taylor here and you know, 455 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:40,200 Speaker 2: easily beat the Texans. But you know, we've seen this trend. 456 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 2: Pittman's average seventy seven receiving yards and the Colts wins 457 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 2: this year and fifty nine yards and the Colts losses 458 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 2: this year. So that's that's typical for most receivers, but 459 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 2: I think that's especially going to be the case here, 460 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: and we've seen, you know, t Y Hilton's return the 461 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 2: past two games kind of eat into Pittman's target share. 462 00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: Jack Doyle is going off right now. 463 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 5: SOM hasn't covered the summer in two games, So you know, 464 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 5: I like the under here. I'm projecting this culture to 465 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,360 Speaker 5: fifty five and a half just these types of game scripts, 466 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,920 Speaker 5: a receiver like Pittman's more likely to hit his floor, 467 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 5: so you know he's probably gonna score a touchdown here. 468 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,439 Speaker 5: But I still like the under on his receiving problem. 469 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't been in the mid fifties as well. 470 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 2: He's actually wide receiver twenty seven for me this week, 471 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,959 Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm just not projecting a ton of a 472 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 2: ton for that Colt's passing game through no fault of 473 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,120 Speaker 2: their own, but it just shouldn't be a tough matchup 474 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 2: where they need to throw the ball a ton and 475 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 2: they haven't been there they're actually thirty first in early 476 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 2: down pass success rate are the Colts, so they haven't 477 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 2: been very successful throwing the ball. They are lucky that 478 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 2: they have a beast like Jonathan Taylor because he's their 479 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 2: offense would be very bad if it was Sir Johnson's Taylor. Okay, 480 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 2: for my first receiving prop, I'm going with Mike Evans 481 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 2: over sixty and a half receiving yards, so he's been 482 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 2: over this in seven of eleven games. But more importantly, 483 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 2: he's coming off a bad game. And we know what 484 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 2: happens when Mike Evans comes off a bad game. It's 485 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 2: happened twice this year already. So let's first let me 486 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,160 Speaker 2: set the stage. Last week he only had three catches 487 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 2: for sixteen yards, so that's one of his three lowest 488 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 2: of the year. In Week one, he had three catches 489 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 2: for twenty four yards. In Week two, five catches, seventy 490 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 2: five yards and two touchdowns, so he would have cleared 491 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 2: this number by about fifteen. Then in week six he 492 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 2: had two catches for twenty seven yards. In Week seven 493 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 2: he had six for seventy six and three, So that 494 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 2: means this week he's on pace to go seven seventy 495 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: seven and four. That would line up perfectly with everything 496 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 2: increases by one every time he's coming off of bad games. 497 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 2: This is a third bad game five to seventy five, 498 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 2: two six, seventy six to three. This is a seven, 499 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 2: seventy seven and four, So he should clear this by 500 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 2: about seventeen yards. 501 00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: Comes about right. 502 00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the Falcons are bottom twenty five. I've and 503 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,600 Speaker 2: Dvoa against every wide receiver position. They're one of the 504 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 2: worst pass defenses in the league. And you know Tom 505 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,199 Speaker 2: Brady's gonna have no problem because there's gonna be no 506 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 2: pressure here and more threat of the run game. 507 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 4: Now. 508 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 2: You know, defense isn't gonna have to account for Leonard Fournette. 509 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:17,359 Speaker 2: You know you can't just brush him off. So just 510 00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 2: a perfect scenario for the Bucks passing game to get 511 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 2: right here. 512 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 5: Yeah, and usually we're blessed with the Bruce Arians comment 513 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 5: saying they need to get him the ball this week. 514 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 5: I haven't seen any comments yet, but I'm sure it's coming. 515 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 5: He usually usually gives us that. 516 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't win last week, but yeah. 517 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,680 Speaker 5: No, it doesn't matter if Mike Evans ever has a 518 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 5: bad game, Bruce Arians always comments on it. 519 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: Saying we need to get him the ball more. 520 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, for a good reason. Where are you going with 521 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,119 Speaker 3: your second receiver pro? 522 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 5: So, I like Jerry Judy under fifty eight receiving yards 523 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 5: against the Chiefs. You know, he's only through this number 524 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,199 Speaker 5: once in the past four games since he returned from 525 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 5: his injury. And the Broncos, you know, they do like 526 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 5: to spread the ball around. He is Bridge Rutters' top target, 527 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 5: but you know they like to get the ball to 528 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,000 Speaker 5: Tim Patrick, who I like for the showdown slate both 529 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 5: tight ends Courtland Sutton. I think, you know he's been struggling, 530 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,199 Speaker 5: but do for a big game. But also, you know, 531 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 5: I think they're going to be able to run the 532 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,959 Speaker 5: ball with Melvin Gordon Bontay Williams on the Chiefs defense, 533 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 5: So I think at least in the first half, they're 534 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,680 Speaker 5: gonna be pretty run heavy. Maybe in the second half 535 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 5: if the game gets out of control, we could see 536 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:24,960 Speaker 5: Judy get some yards and garbage time. But either way, 537 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 5: I think this is just a bit too high. I'm 538 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 5: projecting this culture to fifty three and a half, so 539 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,360 Speaker 5: I'm close to this, But I do like the under here. 540 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 3: I have it even weller I have it in the 541 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 3: upper forties. 542 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 2: I think the media and it will be like probably 543 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:40,880 Speaker 2: about four catches for forty eight yards or something like that, 544 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 2: you know. So yeah, Teddy Bridgewater, he's going to manage 545 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,960 Speaker 2: the game, and I just think the Broncos are going 546 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 2: to try to run the ball. I do expect Gordon 547 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 2: to go here, but even if he doesn't, it's not 548 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 2: really going to deter the Broncos. I think from you 549 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,399 Speaker 2: know their game plan, they know what they want to do. 550 00:25:56,560 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 2: So yeah, I haven't projected even his average. I have 551 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 2: projected under that that number. I had it around fifty five, 552 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm way under all right. For my second 553 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 2: and final receiving prop, I'm going with Stefan Diggs under 554 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 2: seventy four and a half receiving yards. He's been under 555 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,400 Speaker 2: this number in seven of his eleven games this season. 556 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,399 Speaker 2: He's not running a route on every single dropback like 557 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,160 Speaker 2: he did last year. He was up at ninety seven 558 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 2: ninety eight percent this series around eighty five percent. You know, 559 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,400 Speaker 2: they're they're kind of giving him a breather from down 560 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 2: to down, getting some standards in there, getting some Davis 561 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 2: in there. But more importantly, the matchup is just really brutal. 562 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:41,640 Speaker 2: New England is number three in DVOA against number one 563 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 2: receivers and their top three and fewest schedule adjusted receiving 564 00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:51,080 Speaker 2: yards allowed per game to number one receivers at just 565 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 2: fifty one yards per game, and they're also just second 566 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 2: overall in past defense CVOA. So it's just a strong 567 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 2: PAS defense. What does Bill Belichick like to do? Take 568 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 2: away your number one option? That's unquestionably Stefan Diggs in 569 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,560 Speaker 2: this Bill's offense. So I expect Belichick to make you know, 570 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 2: Beasley and Davis and the running backs and those guys 571 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 2: beat you. 572 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 3: But Stefan Diggs. 573 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 2: It would surprise me if if Belichick what Gigs go off. 574 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 2: He's a talented guy, so we should still get his catches, 575 00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:28,200 Speaker 2: but not expecting a big yardage game from Digs here. 576 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm with you here, and you know this is 577 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 5: coming from somebody. I feel like every Tuesday week go 578 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 5: over initial rankings, I have Digs to my top five, 579 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 5: and you have somebody fresh and exciting, like a Jamar 580 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 5: Chase or Deebo Samuel. But even I mister overrating Stefan 581 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,879 Speaker 5: Diggs every week have this around sixty five and a half. 582 00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 5: So I'm way under this, and I love Diggs, so yeah, 583 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,560 Speaker 5: there's there's still a ton of value on the under. 584 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I don't think like you're overrating Digs, Like 585 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 2: he's a great player and I have him, I have 586 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 2: the number right at the same spot. But it's just 587 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 2: more that for whatever reason, and his routes are just 588 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 2: down this and he's he's been like a high floor 589 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,760 Speaker 2: guy in most of his games. Like it's not like 590 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 2: he's like disappointed or something, like he's still getting his 591 00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 2: you know, ten to fifteen Fantasy points. But yeah, just 592 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 2: you have to exercise a little more caution. His yards 593 00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 2: per catches down a little bit this year as well. 594 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 2: You know, that whole Bill's offense just not quite as 595 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:24,880 Speaker 2: not humming as much as it was in twenty twenties. 596 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 2: So Diggs's yards per game down from ninety six last 597 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 2: year to seventy seven this year. His yards for catch 598 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 2: I said yards per catch I met yards per game. 599 00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 2: His yards for catches is into twelve, so it's in 600 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 2: the same, but his yards per game is down. His 601 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 2: catches per game are down almost two, so yeah, it's 602 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 2: been interesting. 603 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 5: His touchdowns are up though he's run away from eight 604 00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:50,480 Speaker 5: from last year, so that's probably my model. I'm just 605 00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,840 Speaker 5: boosting his touchdown odds a bit, but yeah, I see 606 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,640 Speaker 5: the same things as his routes run have been down 607 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 5: and everything else. So yeah, sixty five and a half 608 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 5: for me, way under. 609 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 2: All right, that is going to do it for our 610 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 2: Week thirteen Props podcast presented by Prize Picks, let me 611 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 2: give you guys a recap. Shawn going with Matt Ryan 612 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 2: over two hundred and forty and a half passing yards, 613 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 2: Miles Gaskin over forty five and a half rushing yards, 614 00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 2: Joe Mixon over eleven and a half receiving yards, Michael 615 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 2: Pittman under sixty and a half receiving yards, and Jerry 616 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 2: Judy under fifty eight and a half receiving yards. I'm 617 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 2: going with Justin Herbert over two hundred and seventy nine 618 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 2: and a half passing yards, Austin eck Were over forty 619 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 2: nine and a half rushing yards, Jonathan Taylor over one 620 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 2: hundred and a half rushing yards, Mike Evans over sixty 621 00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards, and Stefan Diggs under seventy 622 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 2: four and a half receiving yards. Next up here on 623 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 2: the Fantasy Flex is a segment that we call Elite 624 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 2: entries where Shawn and I dive into the prize picks 625 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 2: app pair our player projections to the props to build 626 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 2: some entries. Sean, what's your first prize picks? The lead 627 00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 2: entry for Week thirteen, So. 628 00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 5: My first one is mile was Gaskin to go over 629 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 5: forty five and a half rushing yards against the Giants. 630 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 5: You know, he's pretty much been the Dolphins work course 631 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 5: back over this four game winning streak, so I don't see. 632 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 1: Them getting away from it. 633 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:24,080 Speaker 5: So I'm projecting him for around fifteen to sixteen carries here. 634 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 5: Last week, he rushed the ball sixteen times to Phillip Lindsay. 635 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 5: His new backup Phil Lindsay rank ran at twelve times, 636 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,520 Speaker 5: and if you look at the first half and second splits, 637 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 5: Lindsay got ten of those carries in the second half 638 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 5: after the Dolphins had already blown out the Panthers, So 639 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,960 Speaker 5: I wouldn't look into that too much. Gaskin could have 640 00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 5: ended with twenty plus carries if the game had been closed. 641 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,800 Speaker 5: So this week against the Giants, I'm expecting him to 642 00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,840 Speaker 5: get the same out of carries, and you know, the 643 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 5: Giants ranked thirty first and rush defense BBOA, So I 644 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 5: think they're going to help mask Gaskin in terms of 645 00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,479 Speaker 5: efficiency something he struggled in that that's that's been due 646 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 5: to the Dolphins offensive line. 647 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 3: So either way, I think Gaskin easily clears this. 648 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 5: I'm projecting Hills at are fifty five rushing yards to 649 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 5: like the over forty five and a half. 650 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 2: Here for my first prize pick the Weed entry for 651 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 2: week thirteen, I'm going Jonathan Taylor over one hundred and 652 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. He's been over one hundred and 653 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 2: six of his past nine games, and the Texans are 654 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 2: a run funal defense. They're six and DVOA against the 655 00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 2: past twenty fifth against the run SJN. Where you going 656 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,440 Speaker 2: for your second prize pickle lead entry for week thirteen. 657 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 5: I'm going with Joe Mixon over eleven and a half 658 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 5: receiving yards against the Chargers. First off, I think he's 659 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 5: gonna have a massive day on the ground. This Chargers 660 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 5: defense basically invites the run. But I think, you know, 661 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 5: his receiving prop is pretty sneaky at eleven and a half. 662 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 5: You know he hasn't gotten over this number in the 663 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 5: past two games. But that's probably due to the Bengals 664 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 5: blowing out both opponents. This matchup against the Chargers should 665 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 5: be much closer, so I think you know Mexican will 666 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 5: see a few targets here. He's seen four plus targets 667 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,280 Speaker 5: in three of the past four games, so love the 668 00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 5: upside here, and he probably only needs two catches to 669 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 5: go over this, so I'm projecting it closer to fifteen 670 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 5: sixty and a half. In a market like this, four 671 00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 5: yards is massive. I would say each yard is worth 672 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,120 Speaker 5: five to six percent in terms of edge, So I 673 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 5: love the over here. Eleven and a half receiving yards 674 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:19,960 Speaker 5: for Joe. 675 00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 2: Mixon I posted out with the fawn gig under seventy 676 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,520 Speaker 2: four and a half receiving yard on Monday Night against 677 00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 2: the New England Patriots. Diggs has been under this number 678 00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 2: and seven of eleven games. The Patriots are top three 679 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 2: in overall pass defense DVOA as well as DVOA against 680 00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,840 Speaker 2: number one wide receivers. 681 00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:44,720 Speaker 3: They're also allowing this fifty one schedule. 682 00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:48,520 Speaker 2: Adjusted receiving yards per game to number one wide receivers, 683 00:32:48,600 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 2: with Frank third best in the week. So that's going 684 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 2: to do it for our prize. Pickawi entry four Week thirteen. 685 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 2: As a recap, Shawn's going with Miles Gaskin over forty 686 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,240 Speaker 2: five and a half rushing yards and Joe Mixon over 687 00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 2: eleven and a half receiving yards. I'm going with Jonathan 688 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 2: Taylor over one hundred and a half rushing yards as 689 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 2: Stepahn Digs under seventy four and a half receiving yards. 690 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 2: As a reminder, Price Picks markets do move, so you 691 00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:19,800 Speaker 2: want to get on it. 692 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 3: Quickly in order to lock in the best numbers. 693 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 2: If you have not created a Prize pic account yet, 694 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 2: check out the link in our episode description and they 695 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 2: will match your first deposit up to one hundred dollars. 696 00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: Or you can visit pricepictre dot com and use the 697 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 2: promo code action ten. 698 00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:44,880 Speaker 3: That's act Ion one zero. All right, now back to 699 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:45,240 Speaker 3: the show. 700 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 2: You guys can find Sean on Twitter at the Underscore 701 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,880 Speaker 2: Odds Maker. You can find me at Chris Raybond. You 702 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 2: can find us at those same handles in the free 703 00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 2: award winning Action Network app, where you can follow all 704 00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,800 Speaker 2: of our bets, including our player prop bets and track yours. 705 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,719 Speaker 2: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for our 706 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 2: fantasy football content. Rankings and projections, and fantasy labs dot 707 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,440 Speaker 2: com for our DFS, content, tools and models. 708 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:17,439 Speaker 3: Good luck this weekend. Until next time, let's get this money.