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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bagman here for Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: to give you my favorite picks for Week ten of

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Speaker 1: the college football season. Remember you can follow along with

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Speaker 1: my bets, love me or fade me over on the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app or go to Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman.

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Speaker 1: All my bets are put in there for you to

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Speaker 1: look at last week. I'm waiting for the other shoot

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Speaker 1: to drop here. We were good two weeks ago, we

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Speaker 1: were really good last week the picks six and oh

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Speaker 1: even surprising myself props. I got two of my four

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Speaker 1: touchdown calls in five of seven props as well. So

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Speaker 1: we're getting later in the season, we're learning more about

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Speaker 1: these teams, and we're getting more things right, which we're

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Speaker 1: least trending in the right direction. But as I've always said,

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Speaker 1: the most important week is this week. So let's get

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Speaker 1: in to week ten. We're gonna start with one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite bets of the week. Ole Miss versus Arkansas

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Speaker 1: under fifty three and a half. Don't need to really

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Speaker 1: pick a side in this game, although I do think

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Speaker 1: Ole Miss is going to put on a show here.

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Speaker 1: They still haven't had a bad game on defense. And

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Speaker 1: I know I've said that on every show and I

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Speaker 1: keep repeating it, but it's the truth. They've been great

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Speaker 1: on defense. Even in that game against LSU and we'll

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Speaker 1: give up twenty nine points that was an overtime. They

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Speaker 1: give up twenty three points in regulation and seven of

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Speaker 1: those points were to the touchdown at the very end

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Speaker 1: of the game to tie it. So I just really

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Speaker 1: really like what this ole Miss defense has been doing,

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Speaker 1: and the offense has not been good. They're high paced,

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Speaker 1: but they haven't pushed past twenty seven points in the

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Speaker 1: last four games, and only once against an FBS opponent

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Speaker 1: that was Wake Forest where they scored forty points. So

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Speaker 1: Arkansas great offensive game last week, but they played Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State and against non Mississippi State SEC schools, they're averaging

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Speaker 1: seventeen and a half points in three hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: six Ford yards. They're going to be without their number

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Speaker 1: one running back to Quentin Jackson. Tray Harris, the wide

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Speaker 1: receiver for ole Miss, remains questionable, did not play last week.

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Speaker 1: I just think there's a lot of signs pointing towards

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Speaker 1: the under here. This is still a very high paced,

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Speaker 1: good offense under Lane Kiff in an Old Miss, but

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Speaker 1: they just have not been clicking. They're one in seven

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Speaker 1: playing to the over this season the Ole Miss rebels.

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Speaker 1: So let's go ahead and take the under fifty three

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Speaker 1: and a half in the Old Miss at Arkansas game.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to Indiana minus seven and a half at

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Speaker 1: Michigan State. I've said this multiple times. We are on

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Speaker 1: the Hoosiers until the wheels fall off, and Michigan State's improving.

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Speaker 1: They're a better team. Beat Iowa thirty to twenty. They

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Speaker 1: made it close against Michigan last week twenty four to seventeen,

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Speaker 1: and the loss. The Spartans controlled the clock for over

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Speaker 1: thirty seven minutes in both of those games, though, and

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Speaker 1: those are two fairly pathetic offenses that they were playing.

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Speaker 1: Indiana is not pathetic in any way you cut it.

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Speaker 1: This is a top ten points per game margin team

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Speaker 1: EPA margin offensive success rate. Their top ten in all

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Speaker 1: of those Indiana is they're getting quarterback Curtis work Back

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Speaker 1: in this game. I'm surprised the line didn't move after

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Speaker 1: that was announced, but it's still sitting at seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. It feels a little trappy. I understand that

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Speaker 1: if you want to avoid it. But I mean the

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Speaker 1: Hoosiers only seven points allowed to Nebraska, seventeen to Washington

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Speaker 1: the last two weeks, both teams just over three hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: Michigan State is one hundred and seventeenth in scoring offense.

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Speaker 1: They play at one of the slower paces in the league,

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Speaker 1: and they really depend on controlling the clock and the

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Speaker 1: ball to win those games. And I just do not

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Speaker 1: think that Indiana is going to let them do that

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Speaker 1: in this game. So we're gonna take Indiana on the road.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna lay the seven and a half points. I

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Speaker 1: do not care about the hook. I think they win

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Speaker 1: by more than ten. Let's go to Texas Tech at

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Speaker 1: Iowa State over fifty six and a half. And this

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Speaker 1: is really because of how miserable Texas Tech's defense has been.

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Speaker 1: They're giving up on average thirty six points. That's one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty third four hundred and sixty five point

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Speaker 1: nine yards per game they're allowing, which is one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty seventh in the country out of one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty four teams. Red Raiders have given up thirty

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Speaker 1: five plus and four games a season, and in three

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Speaker 1: of their last four Iowa State has chewed up some

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Speaker 1: below average defenses this year, thirty six point three points

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Speaker 1: per game against Baylor, West Virginia, and UCF combined, who

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Speaker 1: all possess better defenses than Texas Tech this season. The

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Speaker 1: offense is strong for Texas Tech, top twenty in scoring,

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Speaker 1: total offense, and passing offense, and Iowa State has made

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Speaker 1: a name for themselves with pass coverage this year. But

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Speaker 1: when we take a little deeper dive on who they

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Speaker 1: played in terms of passing, UCF in Iowa both post

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Speaker 1: one hundred ranked in passing yards. Baylor is sixty first,

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Speaker 1: WVU is ninety first. Arkansas State is the best offensive

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Speaker 1: team they've played at G five team that's fiftieth in

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Speaker 1: the nation in passing yards. So Texas Tech will be

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Speaker 1: the first big passing challenge for Iowa State. So I

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Speaker 1: think Iowa State again does the heavy lifting here against

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Speaker 1: most of it, but I think Texas Tech scores enough

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Speaker 1: to sail past this. There's a little bit of wind

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Speaker 1: in this game, but I avoided the Baylor Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: game because of wind earlier this year, and that one

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Speaker 1: scored like ninety something points combined, So I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: worry about the win so much in this game. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to Georgia. Look, I'm just taking the points and

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Speaker 1: laying the dogs, right, or taking the dogs and laying

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Speaker 1: the points. I guess I said that backwards there. But

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Speaker 1: Uga is only two and five against the spread this year,

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Speaker 1: so they're dicey against the spread. I understand that, But

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Speaker 1: you know four of those five against the spread losses

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Speaker 1: were when they were favored by more than twenty. They're

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Speaker 1: not here against Florida, and the other one was Bama,

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Speaker 1: the game they lost. So Georgia got that offense rolling

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Speaker 1: in the second half against Spamock, they got the defense

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Speaker 1: rolling against Texas and Austin. And I know we're coming

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Speaker 1: off a good performance from Florida. I just don't think

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Speaker 1: a true freshman quarterback in dj lagway going to the

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Speaker 1: cocktail party in Jacksonville, which is going to be a

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Speaker 1: Georgia home game. I mean, Florida has only played one

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Speaker 1: good passing offense this year. That was Miami in Week one.

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Speaker 1: They give up five hundred and twenty nine yards and

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Speaker 1: forty one points. So I'm just gonna take the dogs

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Speaker 1: lay the points. I just don't think Florida has it

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Speaker 1: in them to compete. I do think Florida's moving in

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Speaker 1: the right direction. I think they're a much better team,

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Speaker 1: and I understand why people are taking them. They look

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Speaker 1: good last time we saw them, But I just do

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Speaker 1: not trust them against Georgia. I think Georgia the monster

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Speaker 1: has been awakened here and Georgia is on another worldly

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Speaker 1: run right now, and I think they're about to crush

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Speaker 1: Georgia to really kick it off here. We're gonna go

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Speaker 1: the over for Navy at Rice. It's forty eight. This

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Speaker 1: is dipped points since I took it, and maybe he's

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Speaker 1: the only team in the country that's hit the over

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Speaker 1: in every single game that they've played. Even last week

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Speaker 1: when they got thumped by Notre Dame, that game still

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Speaker 1: hit the over. They were undefeated going into that when

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Speaker 1: an averaging forty four points, and this is a forty

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Speaker 1: eight point spread. Now. Rice has been decent on defense here,

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Speaker 1: but their offense has been fairly pathetic. They just fired

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Speaker 1: their head coach, Mike Bloomgrin because of that offense. Twenty

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Speaker 1: one point five points per game is one hundred ninth

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Speaker 1: three and twenty nine yards per game, one hundred and thirteenth.

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Speaker 1: Rice is still playing strong on defense, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: but their strength is against the pass, and we know

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Speaker 1: Navy with the option offense runs at a seventy three

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Speaker 1: point four percent clip, not good for them. Thirty seven

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Speaker 1: points is the most that Rice has given up all season,

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Speaker 1: but that was to Army, who also runs this option offense.

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Speaker 1: So Navy's gonna do the heavy lifting here. But if

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Speaker 1: we do get the the dead cap bounce from the

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Speaker 1: coach being fired here with Pete Alomar taking over to

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Speaker 1: the interim for Rice, it's going to be on the

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Speaker 1: offensive side because the defense has played well this year,

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Speaker 1: so the offensive I would be the one to take

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Speaker 1: the bump and get the bounce and add more points

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Speaker 1: against Navy. So I think Navy does most of, if

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Speaker 1: not all, of this, So for me, I think Navy

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Speaker 1: gets it done pretty much by themselves here, which is

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Speaker 1: why I'm taking the over. But this is dipped. It

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Speaker 1: may get even better if you wait till tomorrow morning

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Speaker 1: to take it. So I love that one, and then

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go Nebraska minus six and a half at

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Speaker 1: home versus UCLA. Ucla actually did play really well. It

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Speaker 1: finally broke out on offense scored thirty five points second

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Speaker 1: win of the season only against Rutgers last week, and

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Speaker 1: they won with some big plays, but unfortunately, Nebraska is

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Speaker 1: tied for seventh and twenty plus yard plays allowed from

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Speaker 1: scrimmage this season, so they're not really allowing those. UCLA

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Speaker 1: is a bit of a hard team to gauge, right

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Speaker 1: because they played the number one strength of schedule. They've

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Speaker 1: had Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn State all in the schedule

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Speaker 1: this season. That's brutal. But when we look at some

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Speaker 1: of these games, they barely beat Hawaii, you know, they

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Speaker 1: just barely beat Rutgers. And they have offensive problems. That's

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Speaker 1: been the issue. Seventeen point four points per game, three

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Speaker 1: hundred and two point one total yards, that's one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty fifth in the country, one hundred and fourteenth

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Speaker 1: in offensive performance. Again, they played rough defenses, but I'm

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Speaker 1: not buying the one week bump that we saw from

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Speaker 1: UCLA last week. So maybe they find something here. But

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Speaker 1: still this line is only six and a half and

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Speaker 1: we saw Nebraska have their down game. They're bad game

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Speaker 1: against Indiana. What they do last week they almost beat

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Speaker 1: Ohio State, so I think that Nebraska has found themselves

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Speaker 1: a little bit here. They righted the ship, for sure.

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Speaker 1: They're at home. I just I like the Huskers here

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna lay the points. And I haven't been

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Speaker 1: on the Huskers too many times this year. I am

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Speaker 1: taking them in that one and then Tennessee. I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna lay these points. I hate Kentucky right now. I

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Speaker 1: just really don't like what they're doing, particularly on offense.

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Speaker 1: And it's a three game losing streak and they've had

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Speaker 1: nothing on offense Kentucky at they lost to Vandy, they

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Speaker 1: had thirteen points in three hundred and twenty two yards

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Speaker 1: forty eight to twenty loss to Florida. They had the

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Speaker 1: twenty points in three hundred nine yards twenty four to

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Speaker 1: ten loss at home versus Auburn. They had two hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty four yards against Auburn, and backup QB Gavin

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Speaker 1: Wimsat came in and was three for ten with a

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Speaker 1: pick after Vandergriff went nine for seventeen, one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty yards in a pick. I mean, we've seen Kentucky

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Speaker 1: show up in big games, right. They almost beat Ole,

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Speaker 1: missed they played Uga, or they did be Ole missed.

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Speaker 1: They played Uga very hard, but that was earlier in

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Speaker 1: the season. I think we've were getting a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a quit factor from Kentucky here. They've just kind

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Speaker 1: of given up, it seems like in this three game

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Speaker 1: losing streak and now you're under the lights against Tennessee

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Speaker 1: in those black unis. I'm sure everyone has seen that

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Speaker 1: social media crossover that Tennessee did with these black unions.

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Speaker 1: It looks awesome. This total or this spread has risen.

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Speaker 1: I believe it started out this week at like fourteen

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Speaker 1: and a half. Now it's out to seventeen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Anything under three touchdowns, I'm taking Tennessee. I know the

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Speaker 1: offense hasn't been good, but they're coming off that big

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Speaker 1: win against Alabama. I think they've kind of found something.

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Speaker 1: At two weeks to prepare for this game. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: lay the points and take the balls. So again, just reviewing,

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Speaker 1: I got seven games here. We're taking Tennessee. We're laying

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Speaker 1: the seventeen and a half Nebraska or laying six and

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Speaker 1: a half. We're going over Navy in Rice forty eight,

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Speaker 1: I'm taking the dogs Georgia and laying fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: We're going over fifty six and a half in Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech at Iowa State, laying seven and a half and

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Speaker 1: taking the Hoosiers until the wheels fall off of the Hoosiers,

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Speaker 1: we're taking them, and we're going under fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half for Ole Miss against Arkansas. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to the props before we do. Are you looking

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Speaker 1: to up your game in sports bet Join our exclusive

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Speaker 1: sports betting discord community at bettingpros dot com slash chat.

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Speaker 1: Not only can you connect with expert handicappers who provide

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Speaker 1: free picks for the NBA, NFLMLB, college sports player props,

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Speaker 1: live betting, and more, but now you can also participate

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Speaker 1: in our weekly community picks, cast your vote, see how

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Speaker 1: your pick stack up against the experts, and track your success.

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Speaker 1: Go check it out over at bettingpros dot com slash chat.

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Speaker 1: All right, two touchdown calls. One is kind of a

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Speaker 1: swing call, but the first one. I mean, these touchdown calls,

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Speaker 1: at least on some of the props that I can see,

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Speaker 1: we're getting horrible juice on them. So there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of like underdog touchdowns I would call, But in terms

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Speaker 1: of just getting good juice, there's not a lot. This week.

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Speaker 1: I went with Dante Dawdell, the running back for Nebraska,

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Speaker 1: minus one oh five. He scored in three of the

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Speaker 1: last four games in five of eight total. UCLA just

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Speaker 1: allowed Rutgers to score four times on the ground, and

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Speaker 1: Dante Daddle is going to see the care he's here

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Speaker 1: for the Huskers, so we're gonna take his prop here

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Speaker 1: at minus one oh five. The next one is Marcel Reid,

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Speaker 1: the Texas A and M Maggie's quarterback at South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: This is plus two ten, so this is my swing.

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Speaker 1: Didn't get my swing last week. We tried Aid and Childs.

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Speaker 1: That was plus two seventy. That was one of the

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Speaker 1: few I missed last week. But I imagine after leading the

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Speaker 1: comeback win against LSDU, you know A and M has

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Speaker 1: yet to announce the starter between Marcel Reid and Connor Weekman.

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Speaker 1: But you just came back and won and beat LSU.

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Speaker 1: I don't understand why they would go back to weakman.

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Speaker 1: But if they do, Reid was running so well, they

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Speaker 1: at least got to have some some goal line plays

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Speaker 1: drawn up for him here, so it's plus two ten.

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Speaker 1: I mean, se is good against the run, but they've

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Speaker 1: given up ten rushing touchdowns. He had three Marcel Reid

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Speaker 1: last week, so plus two ten if you're doubling up,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take that swing. Seven yardage props here, Let's

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Speaker 1: go to the first one, and I have won at

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Speaker 1: quarterback again. The juice just not very good on some

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Speaker 1: of these. We're gonna go Dylan Royola over two hundred

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Speaker 1: and two and a half passing yards. You can bet

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Speaker 1: this on DK up to two oh three. We'll get

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Speaker 1: your minus one ten, two seventy five, we'll get your

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Speaker 1: plus seven hundred. That's the highest you can bet this.

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Speaker 1: This is hit in five of eight games for Rayola.

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Speaker 1: UCLA is one hundred and nineteenth against the pass, two

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Speaker 1: hundred sixty eight points seven yards per game. They're giving

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Speaker 1: up Nebraska passes over fifty percent fifty five point seven

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Speaker 1: percent to be exact. And QB's going up against UCLA

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Speaker 1: this season have hit this number six of seven weeks,

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Speaker 1: so I think Rayola can hit this one easy. Again.

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Speaker 1: Just not a lot of trust in what UCLA is

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Speaker 1: doing this season. Let's go to the rushing props. Justice Ellison,

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Speaker 1: the running back for Indiana at Michigan State. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go over sixty nine and a half rushing yards here.

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Speaker 1: That is the underdog number, prize picks number, but it's

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Speaker 1: seventy one on DK is the best, like the lowest

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Speaker 1: number you can get with decent juice. At minus one

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Speaker 1: fifty team you can play this all the way up

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Speaker 1: to one twenty for plus six fifty. I would find

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Speaker 1: something lower than that. But he's been over one hundred

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Speaker 1: yards since last two games, twenty nine carries last week

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Speaker 1: with Rourke out. Rourke is back in, so he shouldn't

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Speaker 1: see that much. But Sparti has won by holding the ball.

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Speaker 1: And I think if you're Indiana against Michigan State here,

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Speaker 1: you know that you need to hold the ball. You

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Speaker 1: can't let them hold the ball play at that slow

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Speaker 1: pace and get momentum. That's what you don't want to

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Speaker 1: let Michigan State do. So I think Justin Selson's going

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Speaker 1: to see the ball a little bit more. So. I

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Speaker 1: think this over sixty nine and a half seventy yards,

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Speaker 1: I think that is very, very doable for Indiana. In

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Speaker 1: this game, we're going to go to RJ. Harvey, the

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Speaker 1: running back at UCF versus Arizona. His prop is big.

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Speaker 1: It's one hundred and eighteen and a half rushing yards,

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Speaker 1: and you can't get a lot of good jews here.

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Speaker 1: One nineteen plus is minus one fifteen, So this is

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Speaker 1: more of just an underdog price picks bet. But he's

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Speaker 1: had at least sixteen carries in every game against FBS opponent.

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Speaker 1: He's gone over this total in three games. Arizona is

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Speaker 1: on a downward trend. They've lost four straight games and

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Speaker 1: the rushing totals have been rough. One hundred and seventeen

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Speaker 1: versus Texas Tech. That's because you can pass against them

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Speaker 1: one hundred and forty seven versus BYU one hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty eight vers Colorado, who doesn't run the ball very much,

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Speaker 1: and then WVU two hundred and three yards last week. So,

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Speaker 1: like I talked about with Kentucky, we're getting a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a quick factor here from the Wildcats, and

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Speaker 1: UCF runs at a fifty six point seven percent clip,

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Speaker 1: So we know RJ. Harvey is gonna get the ball.

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Speaker 1: We know Arizona has have been playing well, and we

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Speaker 1: know he's hit this total in you know, the last

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Speaker 1: couple of games here, or he's gone over one hundred

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Speaker 1: in the last couple of games. So I think this

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Speaker 1: is very doable for RJ. Harvey, especially with the way

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Speaker 1: the Wildcats have been playing. And then we're gonna go

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Speaker 1: to Mississippi State. I hit the touchdown Colin Coleman last week,

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Speaker 1: but this week we're gonna go to their running back

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Speaker 1: Devin Booth against UMass and this total is big two

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Speaker 1: ninety and a half, but UMass is one hundredth against

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Speaker 1: the run. They've only played one SEC team that was Missouri,

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Speaker 1: who we saw their offense has been having issues this year,

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Speaker 1: and Missouri put up two hundred and thirty one rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: They played FCS Wagner last week and gave up one

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Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two rushing yards, so U Mass is struggling.

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Speaker 1: Booth has at least ten carries in the last five games,

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Speaker 1: in sixteen or more in three of those games. The

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Speaker 1: spread here is Mississippi State by eighteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: so that means a lot of running in the second

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Speaker 1: half here. So we're gonna go over ninety and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards. Another big total, but I think Booth

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Speaker 1: gets this one pretty easy. Three receiving props for you,

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Speaker 1: Jaden Higgins, wide receiver for our Iowa State versus Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: It's eighty two and a half. I told you guys

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Speaker 1: about the miserable pass defense for Texas Tech in this game.

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Speaker 1: Higgins leads Iowa State in receiving yards. He's passed this

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Speaker 1: total in two of his last three games. And if

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Speaker 1: I if this goes over and is back and forth,

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Speaker 1: as I think it is going to be, Jayden and

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Speaker 1: Higgins can go over this total very very quickly, We're

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Speaker 1: gonna take a big one here. Arizona. TEP McMillan over

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Speaker 1: ninety six and a half in that UCF game. You

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Speaker 1: can play this up to one twenty and eight plus

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Speaker 1: two h five, but UCF one hundred and eighth against

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Speaker 1: the past this season, TEP McMillan is getting peppered with

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Speaker 1: targets fourteen last week. I think they're gonna get smoked.

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Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna need points late. And this

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Speaker 1: is still one of the best wide receivers in the country,

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Speaker 1: even among the Arizona Wildcats issues that they've been having.

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Speaker 1: He's third in the country and receiving yards. What Arizona

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Speaker 1: knows right now is that this is our best all right,

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Speaker 1: this is our best bet to win this game is

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Speaker 1: to throw the ball to McMillan, and I think he's

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Speaker 1: gonna get peppered with another fourteen to fifteen targets and

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Speaker 1: have a huge game. And the last one we're gonna

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Speaker 1: go to Giles Jackson, the wide receiver for Washington versus

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Speaker 1: ucf over fifty and a half because I like this

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Speaker 1: low number. USC excuse me, ninety second against the PA

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Speaker 1: this year. Coverage and pass rush grades on PFF are

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Speaker 1: below average as well. Giles has hit this in all

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Speaker 1: but two games, and USC is a two point favorite,

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Speaker 1: which means we're gonna need to get some passing from Washington,

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Speaker 1: likely late in this game, to catch up, and Giles

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Speaker 1: Jackson is the hit. Him and Boston are both very

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Speaker 1: good options here for Washington, but he had the lower

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Speaker 1: total and that's why it took him in this one.

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Speaker 1: So reviewing the props again one more time, Giles s

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Speaker 1: Jackson over fifteen and a half rushing yards against USC.

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Speaker 1: Teed McMillan over ninety six and a half against Arizona,

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Speaker 1: Jaden Higgins over eighty two and a half receiving yards

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Speaker 1: against Texas Tech. Devin both Mississippi State running back over

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Speaker 1: ninety and a half against U MASS. RJ. Harvey over

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eighteen and a half rushing yards for

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Speaker 1: UCF against Arizona, Justice Ellison over sixty nine and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards against Michigan State, and then Dylan Rylo,

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Speaker 1: Nebraska quarterback over two and two and a half passing

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Speaker 1: yards against UCLA. That is everything I got for you

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Speaker 1: guys this week. Good luck. I hope you don't get humbled.

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Speaker 1: I hope we're keeping this train rolling downhill here. So

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Speaker 1: good luck everybody, and I will see you next week.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

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00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,639
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