1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:05,120 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of this information. Wouldn't 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: you agree? 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 2: Agree? 4 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: I got five dollars. 5 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:08,640 Speaker 3: This is a ray. 6 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 2: Hoppy trackle Ship one man play. 7 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. 8 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, that was good. 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 3: I suppose the best, relentless refusing to give up. 10 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:33,559 Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, very bless. 11 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: Once of everybody. Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. 12 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:44,840 Speaker 3: This is your Sunday NFL Divisional Slate review. On today's show, 13 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 3: Sean Kerner and I Chris Raybon are going to break 14 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 3: down our top DFS plays for the Sunday Slate feature 15 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 3: in the Bengals Bills game and the Cowboys Niners game 16 00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 3: should be a good one. Sean, what's going on failing 17 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: about this? This is the to day. This is the 18 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 3: best day of the of the year. 19 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 4: I think I was about to say, like you went 20 00:01:06,560 --> 00:01:09,559 Speaker 4: to like our last pod, this is like my favorite 21 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 4: time of the year because we have less things that 22 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 4: we have to keep up to date, juggle and things 23 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 4: like that, a little bit more free time obviously, but 24 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 4: we saw football and you know, important games, so it 25 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 4: allows us to dive like super deep and all these matchups, 26 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 4: so like, I love their last pod. We can go 27 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 4: and work depth on some of these games. I just 28 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 4: love that we get to focus on just four games 29 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 4: this weekend. So yeah, this is probably this and like 30 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,279 Speaker 4: next week in Super Bowl is like probably my favorite 31 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 4: time here. 32 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, obviously, you know the matchups next week 33 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 3: are gonna be awesome, but this week looking forward to 34 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 3: actually seeing the Bengals and Bills game play out. 35 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know Cowboys Niners. 36 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 3: I mean that brings back shades like Pat summer All 37 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 3: and John Madden and you know those old Fox telecasts back. Yeah, 38 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 3: like Steve Young against Troy Aikman, where Joe Montana against 39 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 3: eight mean, or if you go back, I guess what 40 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 3: was it? 41 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 1: Was it Montana? 42 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 3: Who is the quarterback in the for the Dwight cart 43 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 3: game for cap for the Cowboys? 44 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: Was it? That was? That was post styleback? 45 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 2: Right? 46 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: That was like? That was that Mike not Mike White? 47 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: Mike White anyway, Danny White? 48 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 2: Danny Oh, Danny White? 49 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: Is that Danny White era? Now, now I'm curious. 50 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 3: I'm I'm not that old, so I can't I don't 51 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 3: exactly remember, but let's see. 52 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, yeah, eighty one. Yeah it was. Yeah, it 53 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: looks like he started fifteen games that year. Okay, nice, Yeah. 54 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 4: That game is just Deebo and Trent Williams leading the 55 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 4: way down the tunnel for that game. Always my favorite 56 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 4: moment for Niner games. Like, just yeah, every matchup this 57 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 4: weekend is hyped. Last week it was kind of ling. 58 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 4: We had a couple of third string quarterbacks, we didn't 59 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 4: know who was playing. Some of the matchups were lopsided. 60 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 4: But every matchup this weekend is gonna be great. 61 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 1: I guess just that. 62 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 3: I mean that Bucks game was mopsided, unfortunately, but I 63 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: thought the other games are pretty entertaining. 64 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: I mean, oh yeah, no, no, I mean we returned. Yeah, yeah, 65 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 1: leading game. 66 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 4: The funny thing is leading into it. I said the 67 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 4: Bucks Cowboys game is going to be the best game. 68 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. 69 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 4: I was like Bill's Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, those are going 70 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 4: to be shitty, And it turned out to be the 71 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:13,959 Speaker 4: exact opposite, of course. 72 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 2: So but yeah, this weekend should be fun. 73 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 1: Any given Sunday or Saturday, never know. 74 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 3: All right, If you heard Sean and I talking player 75 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 3: props this week on the Action Network podcast Welcome Back. 76 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: For even more good stuff. Hopefully we get some more money. 77 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 3: If you have not yet, be sure to check it 78 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 3: out over on the Action Network podcast channel, and you 79 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 3: can also hear our DFS preview for me Saturday Slate 80 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 3: right here on the Fantasy Flex on this channel. That 81 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:47,600 Speaker 3: episode is out now as you listen to this one. 82 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 3: All right, Bengals bills five and a half is the 83 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 3: line in favor of Buffalo. The total forty eight and 84 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 3: a half not too high. I guess you know Bengal's 85 00:03:55,640 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 3: dealing with three offensive linemen out, which is kind of 86 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 3: keeping this total in check. But who do you like 87 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 3: in the captain spot? 88 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: You know where I'm going with this. 89 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 4: I'm going with our boy Gave Davis, and the main 90 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 4: reason is got to play him in the playoffs. As 91 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 4: we've learned yes the past couple of seasons. But Josh 92 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 4: Allen is playing insanely aggressive right now. Even for Josh 93 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 4: Allen in Week eighteen, his average intended air yards is 94 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 4: fourteen point three. Last week it was an insane fifteen 95 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 4: point five. He is just chucking it right now. He's 96 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 4: scrambling last too, so that's just setting up the perfect 97 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 4: storm for Gabe Davis who went off for six catches, 98 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 4: one hundred and thirteen yards and a touchdown last week. 99 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 4: He's seen nineteen targets the past two games. So for 100 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 4: a guy that has massive upside in general, when he's 101 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 4: seeing that much volume, I mean, it just makes it 102 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 4: even more likely he's going to have a ceiling game. 103 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 4: So you know, just when the Bills are in closer 104 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 4: pass heavy game scripts, that's that's gonna help gave Davis obviously, 105 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 4: So gotta go with Gabe and the Captain saw here. 106 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know some matchup related reasons to like 107 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 3: him as well. If you look at the Bengals DVOA 108 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 3: splits this year, they're number six against number one wide receivers, 109 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 3: but thirty first, second to last against number two wide receivers, 110 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 3: So on paper, good matchup as well for mister Davis. 111 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: Hope he keeps balling out. I like him as well. 112 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 3: Gotta go Josh Allen here, Gotta go to Chalk. Although 113 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 3: I do have a contrarian play. I'm curious to get 114 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 3: your thoughts out in a second, but Josh Allen, for me, 115 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 3: I'm projecting him about five points higher than Burrow, about 116 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 3: six over six more than Chase and nearly seven more 117 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 3: than Digs. 118 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: So Allen is still, at least. 119 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: For me, the best value mix of value and upside 120 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 3: in that in that spot. And of course, you know 121 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 3: he could do it on the ground, he could do 122 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 3: it through the air, and as you mentioned, he's been 123 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 3: very aggressive going downfield. And if he's able to connect 124 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 3: with Gabe Davis, you know that, you know, you might 125 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 3: need Gavin the captain spot. You might need Josh and 126 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 3: the captain spot if he's also able to you know, 127 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 3: to hit let's say Digs or. 128 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 1: Cook or somebody like that. 129 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 3: So either way, I think you have a pretty high floor, 130 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,840 Speaker 3: high ceiling play with Allen in the captain spot. You 131 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: just got to be smart with your dark throws. And 132 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 3: we'll talk about some of those guys in a second, 133 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 3: but I do want to get your opinion on a 134 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 3: contrarian play in the captain spot that I'm thinking of. 135 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 3: And so you know, last week I was heavy fading 136 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: Joe Mixon. That was my first bet. I think my 137 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,359 Speaker 3: first prop of the week was mixing under His rushing 138 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 3: and receiving yards didn't look so great in the first quarter, 139 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 3: but pretty much never in doubt throughout the rest of 140 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 3: the game. But I think this is an interesting by 141 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:56,359 Speaker 3: low spot on Mixing as a contrarian game script captain here, 142 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 3: you know, because for one, Zach Taylor, you know, when 143 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 3: talking about their offensive line issues, said that they would 144 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 3: rather get five guys in the past route than use 145 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: their guys to you know, block. So that means you know, 146 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 3: Hayden Hurst, and that means Mixing or p Ryan at 147 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 3: the running back position. So I don't think Mixing is 148 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 3: actually going to be compromised in terms of his ability 149 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 3: to be out in the route catching passes. He has 150 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 3: a thirty percent target per route rate over his last 151 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 3: eight games, so that's actually that stabilized. That stabilized after 152 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 3: about a little over one hundred routes for running back. 153 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 3: So that's you know, that's something that we could kind of, 154 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 3: you know, you project with confidence that he's going to 155 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 3: be targeted at a very high. 156 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: Rate when he's out on the field. 157 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 3: Pretty much only Jamar Chase is really rivaling him in 158 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 3: terms of target. 159 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: Per route rate, and his is actually higher over the 160 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: past eight games. 161 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 3: So got of like that, even though p Ryan is 162 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 3: Mixing in a bit more, I think that'll kind of 163 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 3: scare people off mixing because p Ran played more snaps 164 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 3: then Mixing last week, so I think you'll see. 165 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:04,280 Speaker 1: A little bit lower rostership. 166 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 3: And then you look at the matchup in the run 167 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 3: game and you say, okay, well, Miami's backs no success 168 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 3: on the ground last week fifteen of twenty six fifteen 169 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 3: carriage for twenty six yards. 170 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 1: Excuse me, but we've seen. 171 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 3: Buffalo play a ton of too high coverage, especially when 172 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 3: they're facing a weite pass game. So in this matchup, 173 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 3: this is Joe Burrow, Jamar, Chase T Higgins, Tyler Boyd. 174 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 3: I don't think Buffalo is gonna be able to be 175 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: as aggressive near the line of scrimmage. I think they're 176 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 3: going to have to sit back and coverage a little 177 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 3: bit more here and dare Cincinnati to run the ball. 178 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 3: So mixing out carried p Ryan last week eleven to two, 179 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 3: even though pe Ryan saw more snaps. We know what 180 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 3: Peter Run's in there for pass blocking if they need it, 181 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 3: and he's going to play on you know, the third 182 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 3: downs more often than not. That's kind of been his 183 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 3: role in this offense. You know, two minute hurry up. 184 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 3: So you know, I still expect Peter Ron to get 185 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 3: his snaps. Do like him as a dark throw. But 186 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,599 Speaker 3: if if you're talking about contrarian gamescript, you're looking for 187 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 3: caries and Mixon had eighty five to fifteen percent. You 188 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 3: know him and p Ryan last week and Caro the 189 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 3: Bengals were also quoted as saying that they love to 190 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 3: run in the red zone. If a defense sits back 191 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 3: in coverage, that's kind of what they're looking for. So 192 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 3: I think he's a good touchdown bet. I think his 193 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 3: roster ship will be lower because of the coming off 194 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 3: a bad game, and I think the I think the 195 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 3: targets will still be there even though p Ryan is 196 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 3: cutting into his receiving usage. 197 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: What do you think? 198 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it, especially like you said, it's probably 199 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 4: a Bengals win the game lineup you want to build 200 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 4: with Mixon and the captain slot. But yeah, I noticed 201 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 4: that his you know, his routes run rate dip down 202 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 4: a twenty six percent, But like you said, I saw 203 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 4: that he's had a few games where it was like 204 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,440 Speaker 4: over a forty percent target right run parade. So I 205 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 4: expect him to get back up to that forty five 206 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 4: percent routes run rate and targeted heavily. So he couldn't 207 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,319 Speaker 4: easily get five catches here. Plus you know he has 208 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 4: massive upside. Didn't he have like the highest scoring game 209 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 4: of the Sea in this year, like in the first half, one. 210 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 1: Of the highest scoring games of the last two decades. 211 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, of course it was against the Panthers, but 212 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 4: it goes to show he does carry that upside. You know, 213 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 4: I wouldn't expect them to get twenty carries in one 214 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,959 Speaker 4: hundred yards here necessarily, but he could easily get a 215 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:18,679 Speaker 4: couple of touchdowns, Like we said, five catches kind of things. 216 00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 4: So yeah, I can definitely get behind that, all right. 217 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 1: So yeah, those are those are my two plays. 218 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 3: Who do you like in terms of dart throws or 219 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 3: just value plays other guys you're kind of filling out 220 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 3: your lineup with to Like, Okay. 221 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 1: I'm more of a you know, a corn hoole man myself. 222 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm trying to sort through this mess behind 223 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 4: Stefan Diggs and Gave Davis at the wide receiver position. 224 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 4: Looks like Isaiah McKenzie's going to return this week, but 225 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 4: I think John Brown could be sneaky if he's active. 226 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 4: Of course, we don't know who they're going to elevate 227 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:52,200 Speaker 4: who they're gonna have inactive, but it also looks like 228 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 4: there's a chance that Jamison Crowder could returns. They might 229 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 4: have like eight slot receivers to choose from here. So 230 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 4: Brown's kind of the outlier where he's not really the 231 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:04,599 Speaker 4: slot guy. He typically comes in when Gabe Davis or 232 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 4: Sefon Diggs needs a breather. So I think either way 233 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 4: he might be active, but again, we'll have to. 234 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:09,959 Speaker 2: Wait and see. 235 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 4: And last last week he ran route on thirty three 236 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 4: percent of Allen's dropbacks. Obviously, you know it's not gonna 237 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 4: be that high with mackenzie back, but they could you know, 238 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 4: run more four wide receiver sets this week. Plus the 239 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 4: past three games he has been active, even when you 240 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 4: know McKenzie was healthy for two of those. He's seen 241 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 4: a target forty plus yards downfield in all three of 242 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 4: those games, so he could easily, you know, break this 243 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 4: light with a single catch. Week eighteen obviously had that 244 00:11:36,760 --> 00:11:40,280 Speaker 4: long touchdown for you know one Yeah, one catch for 245 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 4: forty two yards and a touchdown. 246 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 2: That's all we would need from him. 247 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 4: So he'd be interesting again if he's active, but we 248 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 4: have a lot to sort through. 249 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 2: Did you have an update on Crowder. 250 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks like crowd is trending toward not playing. 251 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 3: So I think that Beasley is already signed to the 252 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 3: active roster. So the real question is, you know, if 253 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 3: we get that that the news that Brown is elevated, 254 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 3: that means more than likely he's going to be active, 255 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 3: because right there would be no point in elevating he 256 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 3: doesn't play special teams. There would be no point in 257 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 3: elevating him if he If he if they don't plan 258 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 3: to make him active. So just looking out for that 259 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 3: and by the time you guys hear this, you know, 260 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 3: we'll know just you know, So if he's let's say 261 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 3: Brown is not elevated, so you're you're you're going with Mackenzie, 262 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 3: Shakir and Beasley? Do you have do you mean any 263 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,559 Speaker 3: which way between those three? 264 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 4: Probably Mackenzie, but I think he'll be, you know, higher roster. 265 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 4: Obviously everybody will know he'll he'll probably be the starter, 266 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 4: but maybe Beasley. 267 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 2: Again, it depends. 268 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 4: I think that I'll probably be waiting to see if 269 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 4: Brown's active. If not, I'll probably avoid that situation entirely 270 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 4: because I think all those guys kind they kind of 271 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 4: need three to four catches to hit value, and if 272 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 4: they're all kind of like sharing playing time, it's gonna 273 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 4: be hard for them to get there. So I'm really 274 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 4: just looking for a guy that can just get one 275 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,199 Speaker 4: catch and hit value. So that's why for me, it's 276 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 4: probably Brown or Bus And it's kind of like he's 277 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 4: replacing that Jake Kumero role again, where he's kind of 278 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 4: just replacing Davis or Diggs. And there's some times where 279 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 4: he's out there when like a one wide receiver set 280 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 4: and they happen to throw the ball that's actually the 281 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 4: target he got last week was just a one wide 282 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,679 Speaker 4: receiver set, I think, just showing like it was going 283 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 4: to be a run and then they threw it to Brown. 284 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 2: So he's more of that Cumro role. So that's why 285 00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 2: I prefer him. 286 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 4: But if he's an active, I'll probably avoid that whole situation. Tyler, 287 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 4: is there anybody now that trio that you consider? 288 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 3: I think I would lean. I would I like Shakir 289 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 3: the most if oh active. The reason being if Brown's 290 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 3: an active, I think Shakir now takes that role because 291 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 3: the Kenji's a slot receiver and Bees is a slot receiver, 292 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 3: So now the only other guy that you have that 293 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 3: can really play outside is Shakir. And oh, by the way, 294 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 3: look at his last two games. His average depth of 295 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 3: target two weeks ago was twenty His average the target 296 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 3: last week was twenty four and a half. So he's 297 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 3: getting targeted down the field recently, you know, down in 298 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 3: this stretch run and he had a catch one catch 299 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 3: twenty eight yards two weeks ago on two targets, only 300 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 3: nine routes, and then last week nineteen routes, four targets, 301 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 3: three catches fifty one yards, and I believe he dropped 302 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 3: another deep one, so it could have even been a 303 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 3: much bigger day. So I do think if if Brown 304 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 3: is not elevated, that signals to me that Shakir will 305 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:43,240 Speaker 3: be that kind of shot play give and give Davis 306 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 3: Digs a breather kind of thing and that and we 307 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 3: should point out that Deakes and Davis have been getting 308 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 3: a lot more breathers even in these muscle win games. 309 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: It is so Stefan Diggs. 310 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 3: You know, I know a lot of people don't look 311 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 3: at these route rates, or they don't you have to 312 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 3: kind of how the way to manually. 313 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: I don't know if they're published anywhere, but. 314 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 3: Two weeks ago, Stefon Diggs a route on eighty nine 315 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 3: percent of the dropbacks, which is kind of low for 316 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 3: a number one receiver usually expecting you know, mid nineties. 317 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 3: And last week in what turned out to be a 318 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 3: three point game, he ran around eighty five percent of 319 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 3: the dropbacks. Davis eighty three percent of the dropbacks two 320 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 3: weeks ago, eighty one percent last week. And they both had, 321 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,640 Speaker 3: you know, big games last week. So it's like, you know, 322 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 3: sometimes you get a catch and you get hit and 323 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 3: then you come out of the game you miss the player, 324 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 3: so that that's kind of what lowers out a little bit. 325 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 3: But the point is this offense is so explosive and 326 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 3: Josh Allen's so good that if Shakir has to sub 327 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 3: in for one of those guys and Brown is inactive, 328 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 3: then yeah, I would expect another shot player too down 329 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 3: the field to Kouyo Shakira. So yeah, that's who I 330 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 3: would go with. I have a lot of respect for 331 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 3: Hilton the Bengal slot corn. I think he's pretty good. 332 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 3: I know he'll blitz a lot. He's not purely a 333 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 3: coverage guy, but you know, more often than not, I 334 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 3: think he kind of could do his job, you know, 335 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 3: in coverage as well, He's ranked twenty seventh out of 336 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty three qualified cornerbacks with a seventy 337 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 3: three PFF grade, just over seventy three, so he's been 338 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 3: pretty good in coverage this year. I don't think this 339 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 3: is the game where you want to kind of go 340 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: all in on Beasley Mackenzie, Right, Yeah, it's. 341 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 4: Funny some of these digs get There was a game 342 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 4: where I was sweating a dig's prop and some of 343 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 4: these eighty five percent routes running games. It's like an 344 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 4: equipment issue in game, Like there's sometimes he's not wearing 345 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 4: his mouthpiece. He gets hit and he goes flying off 346 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 4: and he has to go on the sideline for like 347 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 4: two plays and they throw both plays and then it 348 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 4: lowers his routes run rate. But honestly, he should be 349 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 4: out there like ninety five percent of time. Always seems 350 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 4: like there's some reason why he has to take a breather. 351 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 2: But yeah, no, I like it. 352 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 4: And again, it's just one of those things where we'll 353 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 4: just have to wait and see once he an active 354 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 4: report comes up, then we'll kind of have to scramble 355 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 4: and you know, up theater projections, but definitely, you know, 356 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 4: definitely a wide receiver group that you want to pay 357 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 4: attention to because, like I said, I think they will 358 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 4: run more four wide receiver sets, so I think all 359 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 4: these guys in some way will be involved here. 360 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, we don't even need the enactors. We just will know. 361 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:03,240 Speaker 1: I think by the end. 362 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: Of what days Yeah I elevated, Yeah. 363 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, Friday, or even early Saturday, like normal NFL Saturday. 364 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 3: It would be Saturday, I think, but either way we'll know. 365 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,680 Speaker 3: We should get some like a twenty four hour buffer. Yeah, 366 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,159 Speaker 3: so that'll that'll be good. Okay, who else do you like? 367 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, so I hate going with this guy, but 368 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 4: gotta go smash it right, just because you know, Mixing 369 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 4: dominated the rushing work last week sixty percent versus eleven 370 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:30,879 Speaker 4: percent in the rushing share. But pe Ryan did dominate 371 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 4: the receiving work. You know, he ran around fifty one 372 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 4: percent of barrows dropbacks compared to mixes twenty six. Like 373 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 4: we said, it'll probably regress probably more even this time. 374 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 4: But you know, he didn't touch a pass with that 375 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 4: kind of usage, so he could be overlooked despite running 376 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 4: a fifty one percent route rate. So that could be 377 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 4: an advantage for p Ryan what should be a trailing 378 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 4: game script. So again, I always hate going with this guy, 379 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 4: but I think Peter Ryan's the dark throw here on 380 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 4: the Bengals side. 381 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I mean we joke on him, but I 382 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 3: got to give him promise. I think he looks. I 383 00:17:59,080 --> 00:17:59,679 Speaker 3: think he looks a lot. 384 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 2: Yeah. 385 00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 3: This year, like last year, it was like you saw 386 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 3: him get in the game sometimes and it was kind 387 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 3: of a head scratcher. Although I think he had one 388 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,160 Speaker 3: big game in the playoffs, so but like generally, you're 389 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:10,360 Speaker 3: just it was kind of a head scratcher. 390 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 1: This year, he looks. He looks pretty good. 391 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 3: So you know, they they've stuck with him, and you 392 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 3: know he's he's kind of rewarding them. He's a very 393 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 3: reliable guy for them. So I don't doubt that he 394 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 3: will get playing time. That's that's the Bengals art throw 395 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,199 Speaker 3: I'd written down too, because you know, I don't think 396 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 3: you go with Mitchell Wilcox against a team that's number 397 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 3: one against the tight end in in Dvoa. I don't think, 398 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 3: you know, I think Hurst is going to play a ton. 399 00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 3: I think there's not really a lot of true Darth 400 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 3: throws outside of you know p Ryan checking in for 401 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 3: Mixing unless we see you know Higgins. 402 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: Or you know boy get banged up again. 403 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 3: You know, I know Higgins has an ankle in issue, 404 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 3: so maybe Trenton Irwin gets a few more snaps, or 405 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:48,879 Speaker 3: maybe there's an in game injury risk. So that's the 406 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 3: only other guy I could say, Okay, you know, maybe 407 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 3: you give this a shot. But if if Higgins or 408 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 3: Boyd or Chase doesn't get go down, it looks like 409 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,439 Speaker 3: Irwin's return to his you know, ten to fifteen percent 410 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 3: snap rate, you know, in the playoffs. So it's not 411 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 3: really a high upside play unless you're kind of banking 412 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 3: on an injury, whereas p Ryan could very well lead 413 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 3: the backfield and snaps for the second week in a row. 414 00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I remember seeing us people on Twitter wonder 415 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 4: if he's their best running back. There was a two 416 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 4: to three game stretch for Mixing was out. P Ryan 417 00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 4: looked great, and I would like to remind people at 418 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 4: Oklahoma Mixing was p Ryan's backup. So the script is 419 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 4: flipped in the NFL, but at one point in time, 420 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 4: Peterran was the starter and Mixon was the backup. 421 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:33,719 Speaker 2: In college. 422 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 4: But yeah, Peerin has been playing a lot better this year, 423 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 4: but still I will never forgive him for ruining that 424 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 4: T Higgins MVP fifty to one bet last that we 425 00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 4: both had last year. 426 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I blame I blame Zach Taylor that Actually, no, 427 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 3: I blame Joe Mixon for not stubbing himself back in 428 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 3: the game. Yeah, because he blamed himself. 429 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess everybody but p Ryan was to blame. 430 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: Technically, I mean that offensive line to Nope, which could 431 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: be an issue. 432 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 2: It's an issue again. 433 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 3: But one other guy again not a true dart throw, 434 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 3: but still pretty inexpensive, and that's James Cook, And I 435 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,240 Speaker 3: think you know he's a guy that you definitely want 436 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 3: a roster here because he out carried Singletary nine to 437 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 3: seven two weeks ago, twelve to ten last week, and 438 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: in that first Bengals match, but we also got the 439 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 3: first carry. Singletary got the first carried, Cook got the 440 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 3: next two and scored a touchdown. So it's been about 441 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 3: three games now where it looks like they've kind of 442 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 3: transitioned to Cook as their lead running back. So if 443 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 3: you're making a lineup where you're saying Okay, I think 444 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 3: Buffalo wins. Maybe they cover the spread of five and 445 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 3: a half. I think Cook is a guy that you 446 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 3: want in your lineup because you know he could get one. 447 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 3: He might he could even get two rushing touchdowns if 448 00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 3: things really break his way. 449 00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 2: You know. 450 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 3: Obviously, if it's a trailing game script, then I think 451 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 3: you would pivot to Singletary or even Hines as a 452 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 3: dart throw because it looks like you're kind of relegating 453 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: Cook to about twenty percent or so of the pass naps, 454 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 3: which is not ideal. I mean, he still can catch 455 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 3: passes and be explosive, but it looks like they don't 456 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 3: trust him as much as a blocker and they're more 457 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 3: comfortable with Singletary. So he's a very specific games type 458 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,399 Speaker 3: of play. But anytime you're the lead back, especially, you know, 459 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,159 Speaker 3: the Bengals will see how they play it. You know, 460 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,840 Speaker 3: maybe they kind of dare the Bills to run in 461 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 3: this spot. I think you have some upside with a 462 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 3: pretty talented rookie year. 463 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, his receiving usage is bizarre considering he was the 464 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 4: top rookie and like top pass catching back from this class. 465 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 4: So it's been frustrating. But maybe next year he gets better, 466 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 4: you know, pass blocking, we see him use more. But 467 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,120 Speaker 4: I mean I've been hammering his the overs rushing prop 468 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 4: like a lot in the past six six weeks because 469 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 4: he has been out playing Devin Singletary almost every week. 470 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 4: I think the only reason Singletary gets carries is sort 471 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 4: of like Jamal Well, Jamal Williams is really good, but 472 00:21:58,480 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 4: like you said, leader carries. 473 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, they love them, love a guy in the locker room, 474 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: and he's very true exactly. 475 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 4: He's motor so that's why he's getting But Cook has 476 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 4: been out playing him, So that's why I wasn't two 477 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 4: shocks to see him, you know, out rush Singletary in 478 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 4: the first round. But yeah, either way, he's definitely been 479 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 4: the best back in his backfield. 480 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,679 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Cook is just showing superior vision because they 481 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 3: both they both average about the same about three yards 482 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:28,280 Speaker 3: after contact, which is about leak average, but before contact 483 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 3: Cook two and a half yards per carry, Singletary just 484 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 3: over one and a half. So big big discrepancy there 485 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 3: in terms of you know, just hitting that hole. 486 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 1: What do we got? Four is the look Louck be 487 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 1: Lady Tune night. 488 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, so another close one Bengals are seventh, Bills are fifth. 489 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 4: You know, although last week was interesting because the Bills 490 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 4: only beat the Dolphins by three, but our expected score 491 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 4: had them winning by thirteen. 492 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:02,919 Speaker 1: So you know that wow, great, yah, Yeah, the spread was. 493 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 4: Good, I guess, but you know, Allen was very aggressive 494 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,199 Speaker 4: and as a result, he threw two picks and had 495 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 4: that fumble that was returned for a touchdown. So this 496 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,159 Speaker 4: is an example where the variants could go the other way, 497 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,919 Speaker 4: where he has a monster game without all the turnovers. 498 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 4: So you know, the Bills might be a good Bilo team, 499 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,560 Speaker 4: whereas the Bengals, they won by seven, but are expected 500 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,680 Speaker 4: score had them losing by ten. If you look, you know, 501 00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 4: the Ravens out gained them by one hundred and thirty yards. 502 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 4: And then the Bengals benefited from arguably the luckiest play 503 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 4: of the year when Tyler Huntley fumbled the ball on 504 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 4: the what inch line and then Hubbard returned it for 505 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 4: an eighty yard fumble returned for a touchdown. So that 506 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 4: was a huge turn evench huge swing, very lucky play. 507 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 4: So I guess you could say, you know, maybe the 508 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 4: public is a little bit too high in Sincy and 509 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 4: too low on Buffalo heading this week just based on 510 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 4: last week's results anyway, and plus, you know, the Bengals 511 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 4: are dealing with some significant offensive line issues here, so 512 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 4: we'll have to see if Jonah Williams can play. But yeah, 513 00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 4: this is definitely a spot where it seems like the 514 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 4: sharpman sharp money initially has been on the Bills. But 515 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 4: I mean initially I thought, you know, the Bengals getting 516 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 4: three and a half or more was a good play. 517 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,280 Speaker 4: But just you know, diving diving into the results last 518 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 4: week and injury report, it seems like the Bills might 519 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,199 Speaker 4: be the sharp play here. 520 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's one of those things where I 521 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,480 Speaker 3: don't I feel like people might be overthinking it. Like 522 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 3: sixty eight percent of the public is actually on Cincinnati, 523 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 3: but sixty one percent as we record this of the 524 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,440 Speaker 3: money is on the Bills. So the Bills are definitely 525 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 3: getting the big money. They are getting sharp action according 526 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 3: to our tracking in the app. 527 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: But I mean, like you do your power ratings every week, 528 00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:50,360 Speaker 1: you do you really would you make this game six? 529 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: Because I wouldn't. No, I think the thinking this one. 530 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, now from the I should always separate the two 531 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 4: when I when I discussed the luck rankings. I'm trying 532 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 4: to discuss from those specifically, and okay, my bias out 533 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 4: of it. Sean Kerner absolutely loves the Bengals here. 534 00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, that's what it was like. And I'm not 535 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 1: saying like it's kind of a dead number. I don't, 536 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 1: I don't. I doubt I'll be on either side of it. 537 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,400 Speaker 3: But I'm just saying, if I had to go one way, 538 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:20,280 Speaker 3: I'm still taking the point at this At this point, 539 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,200 Speaker 3: I mean, the Bengals could win this game. You know, 540 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,600 Speaker 3: it's not Yeah, anytime you look at a dog, you know, yeah, 541 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 3: it could win this game. And they're getting you know, yeah, 542 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 3: more than a field goal. You got to stop yourself 543 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 3: and say, okay, let me just reevaluate everything and just okay, 544 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 3: take a breath. 545 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,479 Speaker 1: Yeah it's the dog. The dog's a point. Oh. 546 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 4: I'm just saying from like the human put like the 547 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 4: motivational standpoint. I'm assuming I'm hoping DeMar Hamlin will be 548 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 4: there in person, So it's gonna be a very emotional 549 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,440 Speaker 4: game forever for everybody obviously, but especially for the Bills 550 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 4: at home potentially have him there, so like things like that, 551 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 4: you know, it can really be powerful. So that's one 552 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,000 Speaker 4: reason why, you know, I'm not interested in fading the 553 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 4: Bills right now, but at least in terms of my 554 00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 4: power ratings, I've about two points off of this. 555 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean five and a half. What an ugly number. 556 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: I mean, right, it's like you're essentially, you know, if 557 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 1: you're essentially. 558 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 3: Better than on the Bills to win by a touchdown, 559 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 3: which I mean we've seen them do that a lot 560 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 3: in the past, but usually against bad teams or average teams. 561 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: This is a pretty good Bengals team, even with the 562 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:20,919 Speaker 1: line issues. 563 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 3: But I think if you do want to create like 564 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 3: Bills positive game script, you know, and it is not 565 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 3: just like obviously a Josh Allen centric one, I think 566 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 3: it's interesting to go Cook maybe even in the captain 567 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 3: spot maybe, but Cook and the Bills defense because as 568 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,480 Speaker 3: you mentioned, you made a good point, like the Bengals 569 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,720 Speaker 3: defense got super lucky and the Bills, you know, the 570 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 3: opposing defense to the Bills got super lucky in the 571 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 3: last game, so. 572 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 1: We could see that flip. 573 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 3: And you know, last time there was like all this 574 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,880 Speaker 3: DeMar Hamlin motivation, Naim Hines returned two kicks for touchdowns. 575 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 1: So I do like the Bills defense special team. 576 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 3: In the right spots, and one of those would be 577 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,239 Speaker 3: stacked with with James Cook, who we expect to get 578 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 3: the most carries if it's a positive games skit for Buffalo. 579 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 3: All right, let's jump to Dallas San Francisco, the final 580 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 3: game of the Divisional round weekend. San Francisco favored by 581 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,359 Speaker 3: looks like it's up to four again and the total 582 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 3: is forty six. So this one is one where again 583 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,440 Speaker 3: Dog getting more more than a field goal here, but 584 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 3: still probably expect a reasonably close game. 585 00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: What are you doing with the captain spot? 586 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,399 Speaker 2: I'm going with Deebo Samuel here. 587 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 4: It's the playoffs, so you know I immediately look at 588 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 4: Gabe Davis Deebo Samuel in these spots. But last week 589 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 4: it was interesting because you know, we both had Christian 590 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,160 Speaker 4: McCaffrey's over on his rushing prop. It was Debo who 591 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 4: actually saw the first two rush the teps of the game. 592 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 4: Obviously that was just planned well in advance. He only 593 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,920 Speaker 4: saw one more the rest of the way. 594 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:00,640 Speaker 1: But you know, they did really need him. 595 00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 4: That much against the Seahawks. They ended up winning that 596 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 4: pretty easily. You know, he had a monster game through 597 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 4: the air six catches one hundred and thirty three yards 598 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 4: at touchdown a huge part, large part due to his 599 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 4: seventy four yard catch and run. But you know, this 600 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,320 Speaker 4: is a spot we could see max usage here in 601 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 4: what should be a much closer game. So both games 602 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,040 Speaker 4: last year where he had ten or more rush attempts 603 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 4: were in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's going to 604 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 4: top ten rush attempts here. They have Kurtian McCaffrey now, 605 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 4: so they don't need. 606 00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:31,919 Speaker 2: Him that much. 607 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,520 Speaker 4: But I would not be shocked if he gets you know, 608 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 4: four to six direct handoffs here. You know, I could 609 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 4: just see them using him very heavily here. So this 610 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 4: is a spot where I want to load up on 611 00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 4: Deebo in the captain stock because I think he has 612 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 4: the clearest path to a ceiling game. 613 00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, Deebo always been very good against 614 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 3: zone coverage. Both of these teams in the top of 615 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 3: the league in zone. So yeah, I like Debo a 616 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 3: lot here. They're always five ways to get him the ball, 617 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 3: and he's always a threat to turn a short pass into. 618 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: A long game or a run into a long game. 619 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 1: I'm going with Ceede Lamb here. 620 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 3: You know, kind of playing up that the Cowboys are 621 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:19,000 Speaker 3: the dog in this spot, and Lamb is tenth among 622 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 3: ninety three qualified wide receivers in yards per route run 623 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 3: versus zone coverage just under two point three. 624 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,840 Speaker 1: He also is tied for first in the league. 625 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 3: He's one of three players that has five touchdown receptions 626 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:35,240 Speaker 3: against zone coverage, So I think Lamb is a good 627 00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 3: bet to get in the end zone for Dallas. And 628 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 3: his last eight games, he's had at least sixteen DraftKings 629 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 3: points and at least thirteen FanDuel points in seven of 630 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 3: his last eight games. The only one he failed to 631 00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 3: produce and was against the Houston Texans, who actually are 632 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 3: we're very good against wide receivers this year, they limited 633 00:29:57,840 --> 00:30:01,239 Speaker 3: the production of wide receivers with that zone teams ended 634 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 3: up throwing a tight end a lot more in the back. 635 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 3: So not really knocking CD for that, But he's just 636 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,480 Speaker 3: been so consistent and I think, you know, with a 637 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 3: potential negative game script here, unlike last week, I think 638 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 3: you could really see him have to produce a high. 639 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:16,320 Speaker 1: Volume of catches. 640 00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:18,000 Speaker 3: You know, he had a ten catch game and in 641 00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 3: Week sixteen he had an eleven catch game. In Week seventeen, 642 00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 3: and I think you could see him kind of get 643 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 3: back to that level of volume in this one. If 644 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,840 Speaker 3: San Francisco keeps doing what they do, which is put 645 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,520 Speaker 3: up points. We're brock Purdy at the helm here, So 646 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 3: love me some seed lamb in a caf spot. 647 00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:36,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like him. 648 00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 4: The Niners secondary has been pretty beatable lately. You know, 649 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,960 Speaker 4: Metcalf had his way with them. Aj Green had his 650 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,480 Speaker 4: way with them in week eighteen. Oh yeah, DeVante Adams 651 00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 4: had a massive game and then all three commanders receivers 652 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 4: all exceeded expectations that game as well. So while there 653 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 4: are still a good defense, just the secondary specifically has 654 00:30:57,680 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 4: been beatable, especially lately. 655 00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been kind of surprising because that you know, 656 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,400 Speaker 3: see like they're they're overall metrics and I know that. 657 00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 1: You know, they they've been good. They don't allow many 658 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 1: touchdowns and they're doing what they're supposed to do. 659 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 3: But just does the raw pass defense metrics Uh, not 660 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 3: great in all aspects, Like they are giving up some 661 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 3: yardage here to opposing past games. Who do you like 662 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,280 Speaker 3: for dart throws or just guys that you you know, 663 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,520 Speaker 3: I think represent good value for this nine years Cowboys game. 664 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, take your darts over here pretty seriously. 665 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:29,440 Speaker 2: Huh yeah. 666 00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 4: So on the Niner side, there aren't many dart froze 667 00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 4: so I'm going with your guy, probably the greatest convinced 668 00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 4: me that of all time to kick off our studio. 669 00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 2: Of course when zero catches last week. 670 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 4: But you know, Juwan Jennings banged up this week, even 671 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,640 Speaker 4: if he does play, I think McLeod could see an 672 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 4: uptick in snaps and he doesn't need that much playing 673 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:53,760 Speaker 4: time to make a huge play. He has a seventy 674 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 4: one yard run and a forty two yard catch into 675 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,240 Speaker 4: the last four games, so he could you know, he 676 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 4: get hit value with a single touch. So he's just 677 00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 4: sort of an injury upside play with Juwan Jennings banged up. 678 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,480 Speaker 4: Plus he's you know, their kick returner, so if you 679 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 4: want to stack him with the Niners defense, that's an 680 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 4: option as well. On the showdown site, So I think 681 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 4: ray Ari mccoud could be sneaky. But you know, the 682 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 4: the Niners offense is so top heavy it's really hard 683 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 4: to find value outside of the main players. So I 684 00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 4: think this not week, not last week obviously, but this 685 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 4: week McLeod might actually get a catch, and then on 686 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 4: Dallas's side, I have to go Jake Ferguson just because 687 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 4: last week, you know, the Cowboys used more two tight 688 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 4: end sets, and you know they've been kind of split 689 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 4: in time between Peyton hender Shot and Ferguson, but last 690 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 4: week it was Ferguson getting all those two tight ends snaps. 691 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 4: So he had a twenty four percent routes run rate, 692 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 4: made a really nice thirty four yard catch. 693 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 2: And run last week. 694 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 4: Always a vultra touchdown threat and Dak loves throwing to 695 00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 4: his tight ends in the red zone this season, so 696 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 4: you know he's a sneaky bet for a touchdown here. 697 00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 4: But overall he's a solid play if you're looking for 698 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,520 Speaker 4: a cheaper option on Dallas's side. 699 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, you look at Ferguson. 700 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,280 Speaker 3: I mean he's had He's had a game where he 701 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 3: went three for fifty seven four forty and one that 702 00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 3: the thirty four yard chtch. He had a game where 703 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 3: he had a twenty four yard catch, So he definitely 704 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 3: has some some upside in terms of being able to 705 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 3: pop a big play. 706 00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 1: And yeah, he'll get a red zone target here and 707 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 1: there as well. 708 00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 3: So yeah, I like Ferguson and I think I think 709 00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 3: he's a good play in a Dallas leading game script actually, 710 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 3: because again I think that's when you're gonna you know, 711 00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 3: look at the Bucks game. 712 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 1: You know they the Cowys are blowing him out most 713 00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: of the game. 714 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 3: So you saw up ticking that two tight end usage, 715 00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:41,000 Speaker 3: and I think that would would continue if. 716 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:43,360 Speaker 1: They were able to get a leader early on San Francisco. 717 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, and just as always, like we say, with rookie 718 00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 4: tight ends, you know that typically takes them some time 719 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 4: to adjust an NFL. So later in the season, he's 720 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 4: getting better. He was a fourth round you know, rookie 721 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 4: tight end, like he was a legit prospect heading in 722 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 4: the season, so it looks like he slowly kind of 723 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,479 Speaker 4: breaking out. So he's he's all those rookie tight ends 724 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:05,040 Speaker 4: I like investing in later in the season. 725 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I'm going with For the nine side, I'll 726 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 3: go with Elijah Mitchell here. He had nine carries for 727 00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 3: two yards last week, so not ideal, but he also 728 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,800 Speaker 3: caught two or three targets for twenty five yards and 729 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 3: he touchdown. Now, he played fourteen offensive snaps. He got 730 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,920 Speaker 3: a rush attempt or a target on twelve of those 731 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,920 Speaker 3: fourteen offensive snaps, So that kind of tells you what 732 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 3: the plan is with him, to try to maximize him 733 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 3: while still not really taking too much away from McCaffrey. 734 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 3: Is you know, when Mitchell gets in the game, you 735 00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,959 Speaker 3: know they're gonna use him and the defense knows it's coming. 736 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,920 Speaker 3: Last week that mattered, but we saw you know, prior 737 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 3: to this. You know, he's still average. He averaged six 738 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,480 Speaker 3: point two yards in attempt in the regular season, So 739 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:54,200 Speaker 3: you know, I don't think that you know, just because 740 00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 3: he had a point two yards per carry last week, 741 00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 3: that that's gonna be every week. 742 00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 1: I think he rebounds he year against this Dallas defense. 743 00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,160 Speaker 3: So I think he has some upside because we don't 744 00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:07,960 Speaker 3: know exactly how much San Francisco is gonna run the ball. 745 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,880 Speaker 3: You know, they they are known. We've seen them in 746 00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 3: past playoff games come out super run heavy. Now they 747 00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 3: haven't had to do that yet, but you know, at 748 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 3: any different time that could that could happen, especially if 749 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 3: they you know, look at what this Dallas offense did 750 00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,480 Speaker 3: last week to a pretty solid Bucks defense when healthy. Uh, 751 00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 3: maybe San Francisco this is the week San Francisco says, hey, 752 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,279 Speaker 3: you know we have to to kind of play keep 753 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,839 Speaker 3: away and run the ball and hit that outside zone. 754 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,760 Speaker 3: And so you know, Mitchell has like double digit carry upside. 755 00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,000 Speaker 3: Uh he even has outside shot a getting one hundred 756 00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,680 Speaker 3: rushing yards if he's super efficient. So I love him, 757 00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 3: and I think he'll be have a little overlooked because 758 00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 3: you know, no one's really expecting them to repeat the 759 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:46,520 Speaker 3: receivered touchdown. 760 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's just a good BILO option, just because I 761 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,359 Speaker 4: was super high on him going into last week's game. 762 00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:54,680 Speaker 4: And you know, he busted with the nine cares for 763 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,879 Speaker 4: two yards, but he could easily bounce back this week, 764 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,239 Speaker 4: so you might catch him at like a lower roster ship. 765 00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,120 Speaker 2: So he's sneaky leverage player. 766 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:02,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's still pretty cheap. 767 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 3: And yeah, if you know, God forbid anything that happens 768 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:09,320 Speaker 3: to McCaffrey, you get a big dose of Elijah Mitchell. 769 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:10,359 Speaker 1: I mean, nine characters ain't bad. 770 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 3: Eleven eleven touches ain't bad for your first player, well 771 00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 3: not his first play first playoff game of the year 772 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:20,839 Speaker 3: for the team. And then on the other side, got 773 00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:23,320 Speaker 3: to go to t Y Hilton last week. You know 774 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 3: said hey, we're gonna go pivots and Noah Brown. It 775 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:27,920 Speaker 3: turned out like it didn't really matter. Both of them 776 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 3: didn't really do much, but Hilton did overtake Brown in 777 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 3: terms of route participation. Hilton ran a route on fifty 778 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 3: one percent of the drop backs. Brown dropped to thirty 779 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,200 Speaker 3: five percent. So that seems like it's kind of been 780 00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,640 Speaker 3: on the cusp of happening for for a while now. 781 00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:48,280 Speaker 3: So I think there's a good chance that Hilton operates 782 00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,000 Speaker 3: as the number three receiver yet again, and that could 783 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 3: be a lot more valuable if we're talking about a 784 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 3: trailing game script, which the Cowboys did not have last week. 785 00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,920 Speaker 3: So Hilton also has been great again at zone coverage, 786 00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 3: which I mentioned the Niners have done at the third 787 00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 3: highest rate. Hilton weads the Cowboys with about four point 788 00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:12,480 Speaker 3: nine yards per route against zone and against man zero 789 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 3: point six, So massive, massive difference between the schemes here, 790 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,640 Speaker 3: and I think he'll see more of that coverage and 791 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,400 Speaker 3: he can still run so like him, especially where I 792 00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,759 Speaker 3: think he's only he's four hundred more than Brown on DK, 793 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,879 Speaker 3: so you're not really you don't really have to pay 794 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,280 Speaker 3: up to get the guy that is running more routes. 795 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, his routes run rate have shot up in each 796 00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 4: of his four games this season, but they really shot 797 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,719 Speaker 4: up last week. And then going back to just how 798 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,160 Speaker 4: the Cowboys ran more two tight end sets last week, 799 00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,160 Speaker 4: probably due to the leading game script, but that that 800 00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:50,560 Speaker 4: led to fewer routes available for Noah Brown and t 801 00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,279 Speaker 4: Y Hilton. So if that goes up, we could see 802 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:56,920 Speaker 4: t Y run over what sixty percent routes run rate 803 00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,360 Speaker 4: pretty easily here if they go back to their normal uh, 804 00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:01,640 Speaker 4: you know, three wide sets. 805 00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:03,280 Speaker 2: So yeah, he has massive upside. 806 00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,520 Speaker 4: Plus a guy like him, he only needs one or 807 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 4: two catches to potentially break the slave. 808 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, they combined for only about an eighty six percent 809 00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:15,800 Speaker 3: share of the routes. Uh and uh usually you'd expect 810 00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:19,320 Speaker 3: that around ninety five percent combined for that you know 811 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,520 Speaker 3: that shared what number three receiver role. So yeah, there's 812 00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:24,200 Speaker 3: some there's some I mean, there's even some upside with 813 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,799 Speaker 3: Brown to run more routes. But I think Hilton has 814 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,759 Speaker 3: the better matchup and is obviously uh the you know, 815 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,560 Speaker 3: it looks like the more productive player. But I mean, 816 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:33,560 Speaker 3: if you're creating like one hundred and fifty lineups, I 817 00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,040 Speaker 3: think you kind of build the same lineup and swap 818 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,879 Speaker 3: in both of them, just because I think Brown will 819 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,839 Speaker 3: probably be even more overwooked, obviously be more overwooked than 820 00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,759 Speaker 3: than Hilton. So kind of the same thing applies as 821 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 3: last week. Still it's like no one's gonna touch him. 822 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:48,320 Speaker 3: He's still gonna be out there a decent amount. 823 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,719 Speaker 1: All right, what do we got for luck rankings for 824 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:53,439 Speaker 1: this one game? 825 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,720 Speaker 2: The game. 826 00:38:57,360 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 3: Game? 827 00:38:58,080 --> 00:38:59,600 Speaker 2: We finally have a luck ranking game. 828 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,520 Speaker 4: So the Cowboys ranked first, so the luckiest team, while 829 00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,560 Speaker 4: the Niners are twelve. 830 00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,960 Speaker 2: So that's a luck differential of eleven. 831 00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,080 Speaker 4: So we're typically looking for a game to have at 832 00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:13,279 Speaker 4: least ten in luck differential to start considering it. But 833 00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,640 Speaker 4: when you look at luck rankings two point zero, we're 834 00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 4: trying to sharpen up the expected score a bit. This 835 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,920 Speaker 4: game actually jumps out to a luck differential of twenty two. 836 00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,680 Speaker 4: And last week the Niners Seahawks game was a pretty 837 00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:32,959 Speaker 4: big luck differential with luck two point zero, so someone 838 00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:35,960 Speaker 4: to consider there. But you know, when it comes to 839 00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,440 Speaker 4: last week's game, Dallas actually got pretty lucky. They were 840 00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,319 Speaker 4: the second luckiest team last week. I think a lot 841 00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:44,320 Speaker 4: of that had to do with Tom Brady's interception in 842 00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,239 Speaker 4: the end zone. Those kind of plays are considered lucky. 843 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,440 Speaker 4: But like you said, he's sixty seven years old in 844 00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:52,480 Speaker 4: that game. I think at one point he was eighty 845 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:57,239 Speaker 4: years old. Regulations the century mark real quick, real So 846 00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,480 Speaker 4: maybe they just got lucky with their opponent in the 847 00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,400 Speaker 4: first round of the playoffs. But either way, luck rankings 848 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,239 Speaker 4: does like the forty nine ers here. 849 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's interesting because I you know, I think the 850 00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,719 Speaker 3: sharps are on Dallas. I think the the line did drop, 851 00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,239 Speaker 3: but then it went back up to four as we're 852 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,160 Speaker 3: recording this, so kind of been some movement with some 853 00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,960 Speaker 3: of these numbers. But yeah, I think that that kind 854 00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,279 Speaker 3: of goes into a guy like Elijah Mitchell. You know, 855 00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:23,120 Speaker 3: if you want to look at like a forty nine 856 00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,120 Speaker 3: ers winning games club, obviously McCaffrey, but a guy like 857 00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,200 Speaker 3: Elijah Mitchell, they could have two running backs that hit 858 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:32,759 Speaker 3: value if they're they're ahead in the game and they're 859 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:34,640 Speaker 3: trying to keep the Cowboys off the field and they're 860 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,360 Speaker 3: having some success on the ground, so and then you know, 861 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,600 Speaker 3: as a dart throw, I mean we saw last week 862 00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:41,480 Speaker 3: Jordan Mason got some carries at the end. So if 863 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,040 Speaker 3: the Niners do get up, you know, maybe out to 864 00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,439 Speaker 3: more than a one score lead. You might even see 865 00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,600 Speaker 3: some Jordan Mason start to mix in at that number 866 00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:51,759 Speaker 3: three back. So that's that's what you got to kind 867 00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:54,040 Speaker 3: of consider here. Uh if if you agree with the 868 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:58,239 Speaker 3: luck ranks, and yeah, it's it's definitely, definitely interesting because 869 00:40:58,239 --> 00:40:58,600 Speaker 3: I noticed that. 870 00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,680 Speaker 1: I was like, that interception's got it be andy. 871 00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,920 Speaker 3: Granted, Dallas played a great game after that and just 872 00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,360 Speaker 3: brew them out, but I mean that was just that 873 00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,000 Speaker 3: kind of set them up for the rest of the game. 874 00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,759 Speaker 1: It was like, all right, like that was a big 875 00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,680 Speaker 1: swing right there. Yep, that is gonna do it. 876 00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:18,960 Speaker 3: For our divisional Sunday Slate prev here on the Fantasy Flex. 877 00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,360 Speaker 1: Be sure to check out the full luck rankings with 878 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:23,759 Speaker 1: at actionnetwork dot com. 879 00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,759 Speaker 3: For more great fantasy content from Sean and myself, you 880 00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,600 Speaker 3: can check out our full player Props episode out over 881 00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,799 Speaker 3: on the Action Network podcast channel and our Saturday Slate 882 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,960 Speaker 3: dfspreview episode that's right here on this channel. Action network 883 00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,840 Speaker 3: dot com for all of our NFL betting and fantasy content, 884 00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,360 Speaker 3: as well as fantasywabs dot com for our DFS tools 885 00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,440 Speaker 3: and models. We can find Sean on Twitter at the 886 00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,920 Speaker 3: Underscore Odds Maker. You can find me at Chris Raybon 887 00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:56,880 Speaker 3: and ret those same handles on the free, award winning 888 00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:01,359 Speaker 3: Action Network app, Join the division around, and of course 889 00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:10,960 Speaker 3: let's get this money cost. Action Network reminds you please 890 00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:14,440 Speaker 3: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has 891 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,560 Speaker 3: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven 892 00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,160 Speaker 3: at one eight hundred gambler