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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. It was time for the long awaited,

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Speaker 1: overdue celebration to comments back. Get back goes to win,

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Speaker 1: not just to go.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing in Joe Spectator. I'm saying it to cats touts.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 3: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 1: this is the ultimate kabai want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. What is up?

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Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybaund of The Action Network. Really

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Speaker 1: excited to bring you our sixth annual Propapalooza episode covering

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Speaker 1: all things prop betting for Super Bowl fifty eight. Reminded

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Speaker 1: of you bonus code action when signing up at bet

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Speaker 1: MVM to get up to one hundred and fifty eight

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you have bet five dollars

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Speaker 1: for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions applied must be twenty one year older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred Gambler. Today, I'll be

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Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, the Oddsmaker, the

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Speaker 1: most accurate projector in the game, Actions director of predictive Analytics,

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Speaker 1: Sean Turner. Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Well, what's up?

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure what I'm more excited about, you know,

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Speaker 4: giving out some super Bowl props or having the band

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Speaker 4: back together with Freedman, you know, joining us for the show.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean da, I was gonna get Freedman the

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Speaker 1: whole intro, but you just kind of spoiled it for us. So,

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Speaker 1: without further ado, special guest on today's show, you know,

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Speaker 1: old friend of the show, head of betting at FA

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Life, mister Matthew Friedman. What's up.

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Speaker 2: We missed you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's good to be back on the show. I

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Speaker 5: think I've done every PROPA palooza. Maybe I'm maybe I'm

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Speaker 5: wrong on that, but I think it's like I have

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Speaker 5: the right of first refusal. So even though I'm long gone,

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Speaker 5: you guys bring me back. You you suffered the indignity

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Speaker 5: of having me on the show. Yet once more for

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Speaker 5: the PROPA Paloza. But it's awesome to be back and

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Speaker 5: especially talking the Super Bowl because I mean, like this

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Speaker 5: is the game, Like we've got the full slate of

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Speaker 5: like the full menu of props, unlike anything that we

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Speaker 5: see at any other game, any other time of the year.

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Speaker 5: So this is fantastic. H really looking forward to talking

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Speaker 5: about all these bets with you guys.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean we have the full menu of props.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure Sean already moved the market on like all

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Speaker 1: of the punting props.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, but.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're gonna talk. We're gonna talk our two

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Speaker 1: favorite each so we'll have a little Sunday six pack, yere.

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Speaker 1: I'll also talk some free game exotics, some the MVP markets,

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Speaker 1: scoring props, you know, quarters and stuff like that. We'll

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Speaker 1: go player props, and we'll talk some other team props.

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Speaker 1: So really just the entire menu, like you said, Freeman.

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Speaker 1: But let's jump right into our Super Bowl Propapoloo's a

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Speaker 1: six pack, Sean, I'll go you first with one Friedman

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Speaker 1: you I'll go, and then we'll run it back. So Sean,

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Speaker 1: where are you going with the first pick of the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl fifty eight propa Poloo's a Sunday six pet.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, like Freeman said, you know, it's a full menu

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Speaker 4: of props. These are two bets I've never been able

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Speaker 4: to make before. Their two interesting markets. In the first one,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with who's going to have the most tackles

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Speaker 4: and assists in this game? And I'm going with gy

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Speaker 4: Or Brown at seventy five to one. For those that

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Speaker 4: don't know who he is, he is the forty nine

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Speaker 4: Ers rookie safety. I had to give it out. I

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Speaker 4: have a give it out because this it's gonna move.

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Speaker 4: It should be seventy five to one. It should be

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Speaker 4: closer like fifteen to one odds. And don't even take

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Speaker 4: my word for it. Just look at the tackles and

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Speaker 4: assist props. You'll see Fred Warner, Nick Bolton, dre Green

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Speaker 4: Law their way up there. They should absolutely be the

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Speaker 4: top three favorites in this market. The next two up

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Speaker 4: or both safeties for each team, Justin Reid and Jyra Brown.

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Speaker 4: They both have you know, tackles assists prop closer to six.

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Speaker 4: Reid is plus eight fifty and Brown is plus seven

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Speaker 4: five hundred. So that's everything you need to know right there.

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Speaker 3: And you know my.

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Speaker 4: Tackle and assists. Projections favor you know, the linebackers a

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Speaker 4: bit more, so I have this closer to twenty to

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Speaker 4: one odds.

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Speaker 2: But like I said, if.

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Speaker 4: You just use the market for this, he's fifteen to

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Speaker 4: one implied. And you know, last week Brown had ten tackles.

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Speaker 4: I think there was a path for him to actually

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Speaker 4: take this down. He had ten tackles last week. A

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Speaker 4: big part of that was, you know, he was involved

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Speaker 4: in tackling Samuel Porter and i'man ross Saint Brown over

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Speaker 4: the middle, and you know, tackling Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs

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Speaker 4: when they got in the second level, which happened pretty frequently.

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Speaker 4: That could happen here with you know, Isaiah Pacheco getting

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Speaker 4: the second level on his runs, Travis Kelcey and she

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Speaker 4: Rice over the middle getting a ton of catches.

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Speaker 2: So this sets up perfectly for Brown.

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Speaker 4: So I'm taking him to lead the game and tackles

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Speaker 4: and assists at seventy five to one.

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Speaker 1: Love it, Love it all right, Freevo. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how you follow that up, but what you got for

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Speaker 1: your first pick of the six.

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Speaker 5: Pat, I mean impossible to follow that up. And I'll

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Speaker 5: just say I absolutely love that because He's also going

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Speaker 5: to be the guy who is charged with providing a

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Speaker 5: lot of defense against Travis Kelcey. And I think Kelsey's

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Speaker 5: going to be targeted a lot in this game, so

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Speaker 5: that could be, you know, all the more reason for

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Speaker 5: why Brown ends up getting some extra tackles.

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Speaker 3: There. So love that one, Absolutely love it.

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Speaker 5: I'm looking at I mean, guys, do you remember when

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Speaker 5: we had this matchup, not exactly the same matchup, but

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Speaker 5: these two teams in the Super Bowl four years ago,

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Speaker 5: and a lot of the sports books were putting out

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Speaker 5: fantasy point props. That was like the gold An era,

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Speaker 5: because like, if it's hard enough for books to price

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Speaker 5: accurately player props, it is all the harder for them

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Speaker 5: to price fantasy point props. And you know, not many

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Speaker 5: books do it anymore, but a number of books will

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Speaker 5: do it for the Super Bowl. And I'm looking at

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Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes under twenty one and a half fantasy points

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Speaker 5: is something that is out there and in the Fantasy

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Speaker 5: Life bet tracker, I put this in there at minus

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Speaker 5: one ten. I still see it at minus one forty

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Speaker 5: around the market. I still think it is pedible at

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Speaker 5: that number. If you look at what Patrick Mahomes did.

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Speaker 5: In the sixteen regular season games, he went over this

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Speaker 5: number just three times. In the postseason, the highest he's

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Speaker 5: had is eighteen point six, which, by the way, is

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Speaker 5: where I have this projected right now. The last time

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Speaker 5: he went over twenty one and a half was Week seven,

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Speaker 5: when he was going against the Chargers, who gave him

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Speaker 5: four hundred yards and four touchdowns passing through the air.

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Speaker 5: Like the the forty nine Ers are not nearly as

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Speaker 5: bad as the Chargers. The forty nine Ers in their

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Speaker 5: eighteen real games this year, so not counting Week eighteen

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Speaker 5: when they were been resting a lot of players, and

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Speaker 5: they're eighteen games against starters. Uh, they've allowed a guy

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Speaker 5: to go over twenty one and a half fantasy points

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Speaker 5: just five times. So I think this is a relatively

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Speaker 5: tough matchup for Mahomes, and I think the Chiefs aren't

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Speaker 5: all that inclined to throw the ball all that much

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Speaker 5: anyway in this spot. So I really like the under

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Speaker 5: twenty one and a half fantasy points, and I also

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Speaker 5: kind of want to highlight it, not because not just

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Speaker 5: because I think it's exploitable, but also like it is

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Speaker 5: just like the prop that Sean mentioned it is typical

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Speaker 5: of like the types of opportunities that we have for

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Speaker 5: the Super Bowl. Like it's not just oh, you know,

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Speaker 5: like is this guy gonna have you know, higher or

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Speaker 5: like is he gonna go more than like twenty one

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Speaker 5: and a half rushing yards or something like that. Like

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Speaker 5: we can talk about like all types of props for

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Speaker 5: this game. So fantasy points, you know, we're all like

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Speaker 5: fantasy guys. Patrick Mahomes under twenty one and a half

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Speaker 5: fantasy points. I just absolutely bet this. And as Raybond

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Speaker 5: used to say, maybe he still says this, I would

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Speaker 5: bet this to almost any juice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd still say that, And I mean I have

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Speaker 1: it almost two points under as well. I think you

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Speaker 1: have it like three points under. But yeah, this is

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Speaker 1: this number is way too high. So I love this one,

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Speaker 1: all right. Well mine is not quite as exciting as y'all,

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Speaker 1: but this is my favorite prop. So I'm gonna give

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Speaker 1: it out. Mahomes not to throw a pick, and it's

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Speaker 1: pretty even rejuiced on both sides. I think this should

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Speaker 1: be more like minus one fifty. If you look at

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Speaker 1: his career, he's thrown a pick and exactly half of

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Speaker 1: his regular season games. But only four of his seventeen

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Speaker 1: postseason games. He hasn't thrown a pick in each of

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Speaker 1: his last six playoff games. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: how he's playing now, his average up to target this

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Speaker 1: year has ticked under seven, which is crazy, but it's

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Speaker 1: because rare Shee Rice has become such a high volume

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Speaker 1: target and his average up to target is like five.

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Speaker 1: And they're also not playing Tony Hardman, Ross and Sky

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Speaker 1: Moore many snaff the only played one snap outside of

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Speaker 1: Neil Downs. Well, those guys are responsible for seven picks

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Speaker 1: on the year that are just probably not going to

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Speaker 1: get any routes run. And then you just look at

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Speaker 1: how Mahomes has been playing as of late. He hasn't

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Speaker 1: had a turnover where he throw in four weeks. That's

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Speaker 1: the longest stretch of his career. And just like the

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Speaker 1: refs might give him some help too. Since he came

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Speaker 1: into the league, Mahomes has over fifty overturned picks. No

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Speaker 1: one else has even ten. So you know the refs,

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Speaker 1: you know people always complaining about him, that might be

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Speaker 1: a little extra to overturn if he does throw on

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Speaker 1: So for all those reasons like Mahomes not to throw

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Speaker 1: a pick. We bet it up to one fifty minus

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Speaker 1: one fifty. All right, uh sean pick number four, you're

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Speaker 1: a second of the Super Bowl fifty eight propa plus

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Speaker 1: a six pack where you're going.

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 4: So this is a never this is the market. I've

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Speaker 4: never been able to bet before until now. But I'm

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Speaker 4: going with Richie James to have the most punt return

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Speaker 4: yards in this game at minus one ten. His main

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Speaker 4: competition this game is ray McLeod, who is also minus

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Speaker 4: one ten. It's very likely that these two guys are

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Speaker 4: the only ones returner punt. Although more on that in

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Speaker 4: a bit. You know, I think we can treat both

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Speaker 4: these returners as pretty even in terms of how many

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Speaker 4: yards they'll get per return.

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Speaker 2: But I dug into the numbers.

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Speaker 4: I already did the punting props, of course, and I

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Speaker 4: looked at the you know, the return percentage, and I

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Speaker 4: think that Richie James is more likely to have two

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Speaker 4: returns here and Rayer and Cloud more likely to have

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Speaker 4: just one return here, which is going to be absolutely

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Speaker 4: massive for this market. But you know, roughly forty two

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Speaker 4: percent of punts have been returned this year. Rayer McLoud

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Speaker 4: was very aggressive. He returned fifty one percent of his

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Speaker 4: punts this year. Well, Richie James returned forty seven of

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Speaker 4: his punts. But I dug in a little deeper and

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Speaker 4: I looked at the punts they saw and Raray actually

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Speaker 4: had a very easy schedule when it comes to punts,

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Speaker 4: so he was actually expected to see an above average

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Speaker 4: return rate, whereas Richie James had a very tough schedule.

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Speaker 4: So it was actually incredible that he was way above

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Speaker 4: lee average. So going forward, I expect James to have

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Speaker 4: about a seven percent more likely return rate than Rayraa

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Speaker 4: McLeod against an average punter. But this is this isn't

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Speaker 4: even an average matchup of punters.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 4: San Francisco punter Mitch Wishnowski saw forty four percent of

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Speaker 4: his punts return, so above league gaverage. And that's because

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Speaker 4: he tends to just boom it at a lower angle.

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Speaker 4: You know, his hangtime isn't that high, which is really good,

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Speaker 4: you know for returns. Whereas Kansas City's punter Tommy town

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Speaker 4: Said only had thirty two percent of his punts return.

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Speaker 4: He tends to have one of the highest hang times

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Speaker 4: year over year and he doesn't punt it as far,

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Speaker 4: so typically his punts are fair caught. So just based

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Speaker 4: on that, I think James has a much better shot

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Speaker 4: of getting two plus pun returns, whereas you know, Ray Ray,

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Speaker 4: like I said, closer to one, and as I alluded to,

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Speaker 4: I think Richie James is going to every single punt

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Speaker 4: return the Chiefs have to offer. I don't think they're

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Speaker 4: gonna throw Mekol, Hardman or god forbid, Kadari's Tony back

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Speaker 4: their return punts. But on the nier side, there has

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Speaker 4: been situations in the past where they have a big

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Speaker 4: game like this and they let Debo return a punter too.

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Speaker 4: If that were to happen, I mean, just the odds

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Speaker 4: on this are gonna be way more in favor of

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Speaker 4: Richard James. I'm not assuming Debo having a return here,

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Speaker 4: and I'm still showing Richarde James close for a sixty

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Speaker 4: percent chance to take down this market.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know me, anytime I can fade Ray

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Speaker 1: Ray McCloud, that's for sure. I love it. Friedman, what

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Speaker 1: do you got?

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Speaker 3: Okay? That was?

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Speaker 5: That was an awesome one. I can't I can't approach

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Speaker 5: it in terms of probably like plus ev But the

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Speaker 5: one that I'm looking at right now is i'd say

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Speaker 5: even further off the board in terms of props that

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Speaker 5: people would think of. I'm looking at Marquez vowed to

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Speaker 5: scantling longest air yards from a single reception and this

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Speaker 5: is available at plus ninet eighty and I just feel

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Speaker 5: like that is outrageous.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 5: Brandon Aiyuk is favored within this market, he should be.

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Speaker 5: You know, Justin Watson is not all that far behind.

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Speaker 5: But Marcus Valde scantling at plus nine eighty is I

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Speaker 5: think really wrong when you take into account that last

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Speaker 5: week he had a ninety six percent route rate in

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Speaker 5: the AFC Championship. Raymond, I believe you mentioned this previously

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Speaker 5: on a show with Stuckey, Like we have seen, Uh,

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Speaker 5: Marcus valid scantleing really seemant his role within that offense

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Speaker 5: which is pushed to the side. Mikole Hartman like he's

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Speaker 5: basically been banished. Kadarius Tony is missing an action, Sky

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Speaker 5: Moore is injured. Uh, and you know Richie James is

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Speaker 5: a very distant number four wide receiver, so mvs if

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Speaker 5: he's out there running over ninety percent of the routes

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Speaker 5: and he leads both teams with a seventeen point seven

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Speaker 5: yard eight dot. He doesn't need all that many targets

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Speaker 5: to have a really good chance of leading the game

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Speaker 5: with air yards on a single reception. So that is

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Speaker 5: where I'm going. Longest air yards from a single reception

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Speaker 5: MVS at plus nine eighty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that because I think MVS is the

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Speaker 1: one guy where for the most part, I think we

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Speaker 1: kind of know how the playing time is going to

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Speaker 1: break down. But with MVS, it's like ninety six percent.

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Speaker 1: Last week was or last game was the highest of

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Speaker 1: the year now most likely, I mean that was the

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Speaker 1: most important game of the year, so has a good

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Speaker 1: chance of repeating. But I think, you know, from a

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Speaker 1: projection standpoint, most people are probably doing it a little

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Speaker 1: more conservative and projecting him for like eighty five percent

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Speaker 1: or something like that. So I think there's a little

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Speaker 1: value on like all of his overs because he has

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Speaker 1: that upside to essentially play every snap, which only increases

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Speaker 1: you know, the amount of dropbacks he's going to be

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Speaker 1: on the amount of chances he has to get like

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Speaker 1: that long air yard catch. So I like that.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: For my third pick, the sixth overall, I mean my

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Speaker 1: second and the sixth overall of the Super Bowl fifty

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Speaker 1: eight propa plus a six pack going with Eli Mitchell

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Speaker 1: under one and a half carries. This guy had no

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Speaker 1: running back snaps in the playoffs until the end of

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Speaker 1: the conference championship game where Christian McCaffrey just landed on

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Speaker 1: his head. And I don't think in the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: that Kyle Shanahan plans to get mccaff take McCaffrey off

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Speaker 1: the field, and if he does, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: really decent chance that Deebo Samuel could actually be the

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Speaker 1: backup running back. So I doubt that Mitchell sees any carries.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's been kind of the in the important

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Speaker 1: games this year, we've really seen Shanahan not take McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: off the field, whether it be Jordan Mason Orlijah Mitchell

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Speaker 1: backing him up. So I think, you know, he had

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Speaker 1: you know, a handful of carries in that Conference championship.

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Speaker 1: So books are setting his number at one and a half,

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Speaker 1: but a half is probably more. It's probably a fair

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Speaker 1: one because I don't think he's getting in the game

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Speaker 1: unless there's an injury, and that's this, that's what this

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Speaker 1: is kind of accounting for. So Elijah Mitchell under one

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Speaker 1: and a half carries. All right, So let me let's

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Speaker 1: recap this six pack real quick. So Sean you had

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Speaker 1: most tackles and assists, Jayie Brown and then Richie James

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Speaker 1: to beat Ray Ray McLeod in a punt return yardage. Freeman,

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Speaker 1: you had Mahomes under twenty one and a half Fantasy

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Speaker 1: points and mvs longest air yards from a single reception.

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Speaker 1: And I had Mahomes under half an interception and Eli

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Speaker 1: Mitchell under one and a half carries. All right, Let's

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Speaker 1: let's get into some some fun stuff, just some some

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Speaker 1: game some more game props that we like. Start with

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Speaker 1: pregame exotics. Either you guys have anything on that one?

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Speaker 2: Well you U should just tell your national anthem. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so I'm waiting to hear it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So I think right now I'm seeing the number

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Speaker 1: for the amount of seconds that Reba McIntire takes for

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Speaker 1: this national anthem in the in the eighties, in the

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Speaker 1: high eighties. Still I would bang that over. In the

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Speaker 1: last sixteen Super Bowls, the average has been one hundred

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Speaker 1: nineteen seconds. The median has been one hundred and seventeen seconds.

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Speaker 1: Mctire is fast, but this happens every year. Because we've

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Speaker 1: been doing this for a lot few years now, and

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Speaker 1: every year people are trying to time the individual singer

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Speaker 1: who's singing it based on their past renditions, and every

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Speaker 1: single time it results in I think a soft number

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Speaker 1: of the market. Because it's the Super Bowl, they're always

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Speaker 1: going to go a lot longer. So just to put

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Speaker 1: that in perspective, I'm seeing the number at eighty six

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Speaker 1: or eighty seven and a half at most books. The

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Speaker 1: national anthem over the last sixteen Super Bowls has never

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Speaker 1: been shorter than ninety seconds. Seventy five percent of the

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Speaker 1: time it's been at least one hundred and ten seconds.

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Speaker 1: So I think that, yes, she might be on the

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Speaker 1: hot the quicker end, but I don't think she's going

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Speaker 1: anywhere under ninety And if I had I guess, I

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Speaker 1: think I think she would still go over one hundred,

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Speaker 1: just because that's what we've kind of seen in the

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Speaker 1: past with some of these singers who have, you know,

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Speaker 1: really short renditions otherwise. So I'm banging this uh over

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Speaker 1: eighty seven and a half seconds for.

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Speaker 3: The national I love this. I love this.

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Speaker 5: When you when you mentioned before the show that this

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Speaker 5: number was eighty seven and a half I could not

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Speaker 5: believe it because typically it's way higher. Like even if

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Speaker 5: you are adjusting for the idea of okay, a country singer,

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Speaker 5: maybe she sings a little bit faster like old woman lungs.

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Speaker 5: Maybe she doesn't have like the breath capacity for it

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Speaker 5: to be like a lot.

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Speaker 1: Now wow, like man, just like that, making even.

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Speaker 5: Making those adjustments, even if you're making those adjustments, this

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Speaker 5: this is just this.

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Speaker 3: Number is off. So yeah, absolutely agree.

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Speaker 4: And I don't think she's going to get too nervous

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Speaker 4: and rush it like nerves. Yeah, I don't think she's

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Speaker 4: going to have any of those.

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Speaker 1: No, It's uh, I've seen this every year. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think the books are kind of going off the

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Speaker 1: passer editions, which I don't think is a proper way

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Speaker 1: to kind of handicap this market. But let's get into

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Speaker 1: two more bets that actually have to do with the game.

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Speaker 1: And you know everyone's favorite is always the Super Bowl MVP.

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Speaker 1: So Sean, I'll start to what are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the MVP market? You had to make a bet, who's

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Speaker 1: your choice?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I don't have any official plays for this market.

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Speaker 4: You know, obviously it's usually going to be a quarterback

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Speaker 4: but they're so juiced down I don't see any value there.

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Speaker 4: So I think if we're going to take a long

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Speaker 4: shot on somebody like our T Higgins sixty to one

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Speaker 4: from a few years ago, I'm gonna have to go

390
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Speaker 4: with Deebo Samuel. You can get him at thirty three

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Speaker 4: to one right now. You know wide receiver has won

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Speaker 4: this and to the past five seasons. Cup one in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty two, but if the Bengals hung on one,

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Speaker 4: that would have been T Higgins because he had two

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Speaker 4: touchdowns in that game. One of them was a pass

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Speaker 4: from Joe Mixon, so that was key. You know, he

397
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Speaker 4: two touchdowns, one of them wasn't even from Joe Burrow.

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Speaker 4: I think that's the path that Debo has to MVP, right,

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Speaker 4: so you know he could have a big game as

400
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Speaker 4: a receiver but also potentially as a runner. So if

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Speaker 4: he ends up getting thirty plus rushing yards and a

402
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Speaker 4: rushing touchdown and a normal Debo receiving line, he would

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Speaker 4: definitely be at the top of the list for MVP.

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Speaker 4: I could see them giving it to him over Brock Party.

405
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Speaker 4: So that's why I think, you know, it's hard to

406
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Speaker 4: say there's like a ton of value here, but I

407
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Speaker 4: think he's definitely worth a flyer, at least at thirty

408
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Speaker 4: three to one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and like he hasn't had one of those games

410
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Speaker 1: yet this year where he's had like the ten rushing

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Speaker 1: attempts that could be coming in the Super Bowl. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know that's the talk is like kan Kansas City's

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Speaker 1: run defense hold up. So I wouldn't be surprised if

414
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Speaker 1: Deebo sets a season high in and carries for this games,

415
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Speaker 1: which obviously helps him because you know, it also has

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Speaker 1: leverage on McCaffrey in that case, right, Like if Debo

417
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Speaker 1: gets a rushing touchdown or something, that's that's gonna directly

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Speaker 1: hurt McCaffrey. But with that being said, Friedman, I know

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Speaker 1: you like McCaffrey, right, so talk to them about.

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Speaker 5: How Yeah, I mean I lean towards McCaffrey. I haven't

421
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Speaker 5: bet it, And so I think the bigger picture is

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Speaker 5: that I guess two things in terms of McCaffrey. You know,

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Speaker 5: I think the general thesis during the season that a

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Speaker 5: lot of MVP voters held against Party was that McCaffrey's

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Speaker 5: the more important player within that offense, and that general

426
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Speaker 5: idea could still hold during this game. But kind of

427
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Speaker 5: big picture, I generally don't want to be betting in

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Speaker 5: the MVP market when I could be betting in like

429
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Speaker 5: on an SGP and kind of thinking about, like, what

430
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Speaker 5: are the things that need to happen for this guy

431
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Speaker 5: to have a realistic chance of winning the MVP. And

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Speaker 5: if I go to an SGP and I can type

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Speaker 5: those things in and I get better odds on the SGP,

434
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 5: then I'll just bet the SGP. And if I don't

435
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 5: get better odds, then I would bet the MVP. But

436
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 5: almost universally you get better odds bet the thesis through

437
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 5: an SGP. So for instance, let's say you like Christian

438
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 5: McCaffrey right now, he's around plus four point fifty to

439
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 5: win MVP in the Super Bowl, Like, what are the

440
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,959
Speaker 5: things that need to happen for him to win MVP? Well,

441
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 5: the forty nine ers need to win. He needs to

442
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 5: score at least a touchdown. He probably needs to go

443
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,520
Speaker 5: over like one hundred and twenty ish scrimmage yards, and

444
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 5: I would say Rock Purty probably needs to have I

445
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 5: would say under one and a half touchdowns. Like that's

446
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 5: not like all necessary, but like that general thing gets

447
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 5: you in the direction of McCaffrey winning MVP, and if

448
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 5: you put all that together, that's like eight to one,

449
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 5: you know, depending on where you're looking. So I would

450
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 5: just say, if you have a thesis about why a

451
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 5: guy might win MVP, just think about it, play it out,

452
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 5: and you know, put it into an SGP and see

453
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 5: if you get better odds.

454
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 1: I did not have like over one and a half

455
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: mentions of the word thesis on my Bengo card for

456
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 1: this show.

457
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 2: But.

458
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's how already happened to Huh.

459
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I like both of those. And I'll talk

460
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: about a couple of Chiefs scuts because I think the

461
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 1: Chiefs are a little undervalued in the market, uh just

462
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 1: on the spread itself, so naturally, I think they're gonna

463
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: be a sight. There's gonna be some slight value on

464
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 1: some of their players in the MVP market. I think

465
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 1: the first is obviously Travis Kelcey. If you're looking, you know,

466
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: to pivot off with Mahomes. He's had a touchdown in

467
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 1: eight of his last nine playoff games, thirteen of seventeen

468
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 1: with Mahomes, eighteen touchdowns in seventeen total playoff games with

469
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: Mahomes and then San Francisco's defense, they have good numbers

470
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 1: against tight end, but I think that's a little bit

471
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: over overstated because if you look at the good tight

472
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: ends they faced Sam Laporter nine catches for ninety seven yards,

473
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 1: Trey McBride ten for one oh two, and Hockinson eleven

474
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: for eighty six. So I don't think that Kelsey's just

475
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 1: going to be shut down or anything like that you know,

476
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 1: we saw him catch the first touchdown in the year

477
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 1: for a tight end on Hamilton, So I'm not too

478
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,479
Speaker 1: scared of a guy like Fred Warner or something like that.

479
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 1: I think Kelsey's still gonna win his fair share of routes.

480
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 1: And then if you look at like, fo, okay, how

481
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 1: could this, how could a pass catcher win instead of

482
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: Mahomes if the Chiefs win, Well, look at last year

483
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: he went twenty one to twenty seven in the Super

484
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 1: Bowl for one eighty two. But yeah, three touchdowns. But

485
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: we know touchdowns they are kind of volatile. So if

486
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,959
Speaker 1: he only has like, let's say one touchdown and it's Kelsey,

487
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 1: and Kelsey goes over one hundred or something like that,

488
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 1: it could very well be Travis Kelcey so and another

489
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: thing that I noticed is if there's ever a time

490
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: where you get like fatigue of a quarterback, you know,

491
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 1: it's usually that third one after they win too and

492
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 1: Mahomes is already won two when Brady went to Deon Branch,

493
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 1: like Deon Branch won the third, and then Brady won

494
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 1: two more with the Patriots, and then Edelman wins one.

495
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 1: So this this has been the time if you like,

496
00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a precedent for a pass catcher

497
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:01,879
Speaker 1: to win, and if you have like a legendary all

498
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 1: time quarterback winning. And then the other guy is Rashid Rice,

499
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 1: and he's got much better odds. He's sixty to one,

500
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 1: and his numbers, if you look at his receiving yardage

501
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 1: in the market, his prop is about five fewer yards

502
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: than Kelsey, and his receptions are pretty much equal, right

503
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: around six and a half. So really you're just looking

504
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: at touchdown variants if you're looking kind of like the

505
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 1: same reasons reasoning as Kelsey and Rashi Rice. I mean,

506
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: this guy it's kind of going under talked about, but

507
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 1: he has no relation to Jerry Rice, right, and Jerry

508
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:37,399
Speaker 1: Rice's first three postseason games, you know, he had not

509
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,199
Speaker 1: even half as much as many receiving yards as Rashid.

510
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 1: Like Rashi Rice has ten more catches over one hundred

511
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: more yards than Jerry Rice in his first three playoff games,

512
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 1: So he's this guy's a baller. I think he could

513
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: easily win it. He's averaging six catches for seventy yards

514
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 1: since Week six, so I think there's a lot of

515
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 1: value on him, even compared to Kelcey. But I really

516
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 1: like kind of hedging them both, you know, taking Kelsey

517
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: and taking Rice as a way to kind of look

518
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 1: to kind of look at the Chiefs a chief pass catcher,

519
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: not Mahomes getting it. So those are those are my

520
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: two favorite MVD bets.

521
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it.

522
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 5: I'll say I had the same general idea with Kelsey,

523
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 5: but I put it in an SGP and so, like

524
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 5: what I did was betting the Chiefs to win, betting

525
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 5: Kelsey to score touchdown, Kelsey to go over one hundred yards,

526
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 5: and then taking the under on Mahomes's passing yards so

527
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 5: under to sixty one and a half, and like that

528
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 5: gets you some really big inverse correlation that results in

529
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 5: thirty two to one odds. So like I see the path,

530
00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 5: like you could easily see how it happens.

531
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you could do it. You could do a

532
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: couple of them, because you could do another one where

533
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 1: it's like Kelsey to score two touchdowns and kind of

534
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 1: do like maybe not the hundred yards but the two

535
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: touchdowns or something like that. And I won't say this

536
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: too another Chief who I think and you know, running

537
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: backs never win it. But you know, this Chiefs team

538
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 1: is so unlike and I've said the Niners two like

539
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: these like these they're they are good defensive teams. They

540
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: have quarterbacks that obviously could put up big numbers, but

541
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: there's also a scenario where like Isaiah Pacheco scores two

542
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: or three touchdowns and like we saw that with Damian

543
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: Williams and he did. Don't get it, but that yeah, yeah,

544
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,320
Speaker 1: I know, but like that was that was you know,

545
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: Mahomes had Tyreek and he can they still put up

546
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 1: big numbers. But there's a chance like Mahomes, as you

547
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: mentioned Friedman, he hasn't really been putting up massive numbers

548
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: this year and he hasn't had to because of the defense.

549
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: So if the defense play as well, Mahomes doesn't put

550
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: up massive numbers and Pacheco gets let's say both of

551
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: the Chiefs touchdowns and they win like seventeen fourteen or

552
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: something like that, it's gonna be hard enough to give

553
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 1: it to him, So he's twenty eight to one. Another

554
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: guy I would I would consider in this market or

555
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 1: go like the Freedman SGP route and kind of get

556
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: yourself to a Pacheco as well.

557
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 5: There are still multiple times a year that I have

558
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,679
Speaker 5: this quick thought of, like I can't believe Damian Williams

559
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:59,160
Speaker 5: didn't win Super Bowl MVP four years ago, Like it's

560
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 5: it's still a selfie that just like flashes through my brain.

561
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it was kind of the

562
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 1: way things unfolded late too, with my homes hitting Hill

563
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 1: for that big catch, and you know there was a

564
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: lot playing into that. All right, let's go to touchdown markets.

565
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: You know these are always, I would say, kind of

566
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: tough for us because you know, as guys who project

567
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 1: these things out, I would say, the touchdown markets tend

568
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 1: to be a little overjuiced. But it is a Super Bowl.

569
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 1: It is kind of fun to kind of find some

570
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:33,640
Speaker 1: long shots here or just some guys that we think

571
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: are good values, are decent values, because we know people

572
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: are gonna bet them. So, Sean, you're at first, who

573
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: do you like in this market? And then either anytime

574
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 1: or first touchdown or whatever you may.

575
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: Yeah.

576
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 4: So, like you said, this is a market that I

577
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 4: think is pretty sharp. So it's hard to find too

578
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 4: much value, especially on the studs that you liked about on.

579
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 4: But I do have a lean on a long shot.

580
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 4: I think Noah Gray at plus nine pet fifty is

581
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 4: offering some value. You know, he has two touchdowns this year,

582
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 4: and he's you know, clearly Travis Kelcey's backup. He is

583
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 4: on the field a lot more than your typical backup

584
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 4: tight end.

585
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: In the red zone.

586
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 4: The Chiefs use two tight end personnel the eight highest

587
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 4: rate in the red zone, three tight end personnel at

588
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 4: the fourth highest rate in the red zone. And with

589
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 4: Joe Tooney it sounds like he's going to be out.

590
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 4: I could see them leaning towards more heavy personnel at

591
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 4: times in this game. And Andy Reid, you know, he

592
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 4: likes to get creative in the red zone. And Gray

593
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 4: is the type of guy where you know, could benefit

594
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: from San Francisco, you know, putting too many racist sourvices

595
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 4: on you know, Kelsey or Rice. So they could have

596
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 4: a sort of a trick play designed for Gray near

597
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 4: the red zone. Either way, I have him projected closer

598
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 4: to plus seven hundred. Like you said, it's usually hard

599
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 4: to find value on this, but I think you know,

600
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 4: no Gray at plus nine fifty is offering some value here.

601
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it. And you know, like you said,

602
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have increased their heavy personnel a lot, And

603
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: I think he's actually because I initially thought that it

604
00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: was like just early in games, but they've actually increased

605
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: it a lot later in games when they're weaiting. So

606
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: it's another one of those things you can also parlay

607
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: or like. His last touchdowns are also interesting because usually

608
00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: tight ends heavy personnel. Guys you're thinking early in the game,

609
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 1: and like fourth receivers, fifth receivers you're thinking late. You know,

610
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,959
Speaker 1: teams are coming back, but it's the Chiefs have been

611
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: using that personnel weight in games too, so but yeah,

612
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: I like Noah Gray as well. Freeman, what are you thinking?

613
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 5: All right, I'm gonna be chocky. Christian McCaffrey like his

614
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 5: his odds are minus one ten to minus sorry, minus

615
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 5: two ten to minus two twenty five and I have

616
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 5: this projected around minus two seventy five, and I will

617
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 5: just say I feel like this has been a little

618
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 5: bit of a cheat code throughout the season where it's

619
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 5: like McCaffrey has just almost never been priced high enough

620
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 5: in this market, and it's it's like that meme of

621
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 5: like the genius on one side of the spectrum and

622
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 5: like the idiot on the other side, and they both

623
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 5: have the same opinion. Like I feel like like like

624
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 5: people could like who are sharp betters, and then like

625
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 5: square betters could both get to Christian McCaffrey, because like

626
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 5: the square better could just be like, oh, Christian McCaffrey,

627
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 5: he scores a touchdown every game, and the sharp better

628
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 5: could be like, oh, Christian McCaffrey, like he has such

629
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 5: outstanding work inside the five yard line, and like point

630
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,239
Speaker 5: out everything about the forty nine ers in terms of

631
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 5: like the metrics that explain why Christian McCaffrey scores so

632
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 5: many touchdowns.

633
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 3: But I think he's a.

634
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 5: Nearer or as close of a lock as anyone can

635
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 5: get to scoring a touchdown in any given game. So

636
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 5: Christian McCaffrey at minus two twenty, I think there's value there.

637
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 5: And I'll say if you don't, if you don't like

638
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 5: laying that much juice. Totally understandable. I think there's actually

639
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 5: a way of leveraging this even more of parlane Christian

640
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 5: McCaffrey anytime touchdown and taking the under on his scrimmage yardage,

641
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 5: so one hundred and thirty one and a half scrimmage yards,

642
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 5: and I would say, like, normally there is correlation. Not

643
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 5: normally there is correlation between yards and touchdowns, but with

644
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 5: someone like McCaffrey and with a scrimmage yardage total that high,

645
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 5: the correlation is much, I don't know, much weaker. And

646
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 5: like what really matters for Christian McCaffrey is not the

647
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 5: number of yards he gets in this game, but like

648
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 5: the number of opportunities he gets inside the five yard line,

649
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 5: and that is basically uncorrelated with the number of yards

650
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 5: that he gets across the game. And I'll just say, like,

651
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 5: even if McCaffrey has a subpar game where he has

652
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 5: like one hundred and twenty yards or something like that,

653
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 5: he still has a really good chance of scoring a touchdown.

654
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 5: So McCaffrey in the let me see the eight games

655
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 5: this year in which he had fewer than one hundred

656
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 5: and thirty and a half scrimmage yards. He still scored

657
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,479
Speaker 5: a touchdown in all of those games but one, so

658
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 5: I think there's pretty decent opportunity here.

659
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 2: I have.

660
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 5: I got this at plus two nineteen Christian McCaffrey anytime

661
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 5: touchdown and under on the scrimmage yardage of one thirty

662
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 5: one and a half. So I think Christian McCaffrey on

663
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 5: his own to score a touchdown is fine if you

664
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 5: don't want to pay the heavy juice on that. I

665
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 5: think parlaying that with the under on his scrimmage yardage

666
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 5: is a way of bumping this up to like plus

667
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 5: two ten plus two twenty to make it a little

668
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 5: bit more palatable, but still getting some value there.

669
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean this guy scored in fifteen out of

670
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: eighteen games, so he is. I mean, like you said,

671
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: the nearest to a lock. And the books are in

672
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 1: a tough spot with McCaffrey too, because they want to

673
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: still take action on it, but they don't want to

674
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: juice it up so high. You know that it's like

675
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 1: people don't want to touch it. So I think it's

676
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: you know, it's not too crazy. I would I have

677
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: like a probably fair value just under minus two hundred

678
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: but I mean we're talking in a couple of cents

679
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: of juice here. Another guy like that for me is

680
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: Travis Kelce. You can get him at even money, And

681
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: I think again, I think the market is just kind

682
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: of saying, oh, San Francisco's really good against tight ends,

683
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 1: but they haven't really been great against good tight ends.

684
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: And Kelsey still scored in thirteen out of seventeen with

685
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: Mahomes eight of the last nine playoff games, so still

686
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: like his odds of getting in the end zone. I

687
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: think usually you'd see a guy like Kelsey, he would

688
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 1: be you know, MICUs one fifty or something like that.

689
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 1: But because of just the season he's had, he hasn't

690
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: really played the amount of snaps that he's been playing

691
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: in the postseason. For much of the year. He didn't

692
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 1: even clear like a ninety percent route rate I think

693
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: until after the bye this year. So I think you're

694
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,240
Speaker 1: getting a little value there. But far as long shots,

695
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: I think Richie James is interesting because I was at

696
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: that Super Bowl last year. I watched sky Moore score

697
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: his first touchdown of the season on his only catch

698
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 1: of the game as the number four receiver for Kansas City.

699
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 1: I watched Canarius Tony, who barely played on offense. I

700
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 1: think he was the number five wide receiver. He scored

701
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: a receiving touchdown in that game as well. So Richie James,

702
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: he's he played seventeen snaps, ran eight routes as the

703
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: number four wide receiver in the conference championship. But Coole

704
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 1: Harmon only one snap justin ro no snaps outside of

705
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:04,439
Speaker 1: the kneel down. So Richie James seems like he's locked

706
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: into that number four role, and that with Andy Reid

707
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: kind of scheming things up. If Kelsey doesn't, if they

708
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 1: if homes throws on, it's not Kelsey. Obviously it could

709
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 1: be Rice, but you know, defenses are obviously going to

710
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: pay the most attention. It could be a random guy

711
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: like Richie James. So like, yeah, I was about to say,

712
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: and he gets a couple extra cracks, gets a couple

713
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 1: of cracked, if you know, if you get some punts,

714
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: so eleven to one, I think those are those are

715
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: fun odds. And one other guy I'll mention, uh, you know,

716
00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: kind of going off your Noah Gray prop Shawan is

717
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 1: Blake Bell at thirty to one. He you know, Kansas

718
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: City is not only increasing their one to two personnel,

719
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 1: but they're one three, which is three tight ends on

720
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: the field. And I think another important thing for Blake Bell, uh,

721
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: because you mentioned you know these guys, these guys are

722
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: going to be used in the red zone the most.

723
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 1: That's where you start seeing like the third tit end

724
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,839
Speaker 1: coming in Kansas City doesn't sneak at the goal line

725
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 1: because Kansasity doesn't sneak, right, So that because they don't,

726
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: they have to think of other ways to kind of

727
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 1: other plays to draw up. And we've seen Blake Bell

728
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 1: in the past actually get a quarterback sneak like a

729
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: touch push. Same thing with Noah Gray, So I think

730
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: that's where some hidden value is in addition to just

731
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 1: like a well play action to the checko or whoever

732
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 1: and just just launch it up to Bell, who no

733
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: one even knows is on the field. So I like

734
00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 1: both backup tight ends, all tight ends, all three tight

735
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: ends with the chiefs Kelsey Gray and Bell. One of

736
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 1: those guys I love.

737
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 5: This the Bell does are former college quarterbacks Richie James

738
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 5: and the hashtag revenge game Go Yes, forty nine ers

739
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 5: And by the way, you know Raybon you mentioned the

740
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 5: forty nine ers against tight ends, and you mentioned earlier

741
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 5: Trey McBride and Samuela Porta. The forty nine ers have

742
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 5: not been nearly as good against tight ends after they

743
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 5: lost Ufonga. I think that was like week eleven, you know,

744
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 5: And that's why Gira Brown is on the field really

745
00:36:56,239 --> 00:36:59,959
Speaker 5: in the first place, and like he's been exploitable going

746
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 5: against like tight ends. There's no one else like Kelsey,

747
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 5: but McBride and Laporta are the guys most like Kelsey

748
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 5: since Whufonka was injured, and those guys just absolutely went off.

749
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 5: So like, yeah, I mean that goes to your Kelsey

750
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 5: scoring a touchdown, it goes to Kelsey MVP. Like I

751
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 5: think if the if the Chiefs have a big game,

752
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 5: a lot of it is because of Kelsey in this spot.

753
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, And that's why I like, you know, the

754
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: hedge with Rashid Rice for MVP, just because you know,

755
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 1: he's his odds are so long that if this doesn't happen,

756
00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: but Mahomes is still Mahomes, it's probably gonna be Rice.

757
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: Although MVS if he runs those hundred ninety six routes,

758
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,720
Speaker 1: maybe maybe we should be considered him too. But let's

759
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 1: go to scoring props by quarter. This sounds like a

760
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 1: Sean thing, So Sean, what do you What do you

761
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: got here?

762
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 4: I think it's really I just took calebrity of just

763
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 4: props by quarter, and I took a couple earlier in

764
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 4: the week. They were offering first quarter receiving yards, which

765
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 4: I've seen at times. It's not calm, and usually it's

766
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 4: just for studs. But I saw Justin Watson at three

767
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 4: and a half yards and I did a double take.

768
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 4: It's like they took his full game projection divided by four.

769
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 4: There you go, there's his first quarter receiving yards. So

770
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 4: I hammer the under for him and Juwan Jennings. I

771
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 4: haven't seen Juwan Jennings up yet, but just look for

772
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,640
Speaker 4: him to come back. Watson's down to minus one eighty,

773
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 4: but I still like it there as you guys would say,

774
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:23,439
Speaker 4: I bet that.

775
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 2: Down to any juice.

776
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: But when it comes to Watson, you know, the full game,

777
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 4: he's closer to one point six receptions about point four

778
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 4: for the first quarter using the back of a napkin

779
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 4: math here, but that's only about a thirty four percent

780
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,760
Speaker 4: chance he'll even catch a pass in the first quarter.

781
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,800
Speaker 4: So this prop should really be just over runner a

782
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 4: half yard with the under, you know, minus two hundred

783
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 4: or something like that. But they they gave us three

784
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 4: three yards too. He has three catches this year out

785
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 4: of his thirty catches that have gone for three yards

786
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 4: or less, so we're getting a little cushion there. But

787
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 4: you know, just to take it a step further, he

788
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 4: only has four catches in the first quarter all year,

789
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 4: usually when he is getting receptions the second quarter in

790
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 4: the two minute offense. So just I'm already projecting this

791
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 4: at like minus two thirty and if you just factor

792
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 4: in the fact that he doesn't see many targets in

793
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 4: the first quarter, it should be closer like minus three hundred.

794
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,399
Speaker 2: So I still like it minus one eighty.

795
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 4: And again, keep an eye out on Juan Jennings prop

796
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 4: they might float it back up there at some point.

797
00:39:22,120 --> 00:39:24,319
Speaker 4: And if it's at three and a half, hammer the under.

798
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think the Watson makes a lot of sense

799
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: because for a couple of reasons. Number one, he's much

800
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 1: better against man coverage. San Francisco plays mostly zone. I

801
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 1: think you're gonna have to get them out of their

802
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 1: zone like the Lions did. So if that is not

803
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 1: probably not gonna happen by the first quarter. Then the

804
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: other thing. And you saw this last week, Sean Watson

805
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: got like his second catch was like behind the line

806
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: of scrimmage, you got wiped away. But that's a trend, right, Yeah,

807
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: that's been a trend though, because with Rice playing so well,

808
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 1: his average up the target, remember it's like five, and

809
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 1: he's a high volume guy, getting like a eight out

810
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 1: under five. I've not I've actually we went back and

811
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 1: looked and Watson's average up the target has come down

812
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 1: a few yards. So like on the season, him and

813
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 1: MVS are like, yeah, these both of their very deep targets,

814
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 1: but Watson has actually come down a few yards, like

815
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 1: as Rice has become like an every down player. So

816
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 1: those two things, you know, I think, really kind of

817
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 1: lend themselves to Watson not even catching a pass in

818
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: the first quarter. But even if he does, you have

819
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 1: that little extra cushion of maybe it's another one of

820
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: those like cheap dump off behind like a wide receiver

821
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 1: screen or something like that. All right, let's go to

822
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: just regular player props. Let's see who he got. Okay,

823
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 1: so Freeman, you have more than Sean, So give me

824
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: a couple here, and then I'm gonna go to Sean.

825
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: He looks like he has two, and then I'll come

826
00:40:44,960 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: back to you for your last two.

827
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 5: Okay, Well, I took a glimpse in the outline earlier

828
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 5: and Sean had something in there about Checko, and I

829
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,760
Speaker 5: think it was a Pa Checko versus Christian McCaffrey matchup.

830
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,439
Speaker 5: So I want to see what Sean has to say

831
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:01,360
Speaker 5: about this because I like the Pachecko side of this.

832
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 5: I got this at twenty three and a half yards,

833
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 5: you know, plus twenty three and a half for Pachecko,

834
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 5: you know, you know, minus one ten, minus one fifteen,

835
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 5: And I think there's value there on Pachecko because both

836
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 5: of these defenses are pretty vulnerable against the run. If

837
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 5: you look at what Pachecko has done in the playoffs

838
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 5: and what he's done since the bye week, which was

839
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 5: in Week ten, and you compare that to Christian McCaffrey

840
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,240
Speaker 5: in the playoffs, McCaffrey since the week nine by Pachecko

841
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 5: has actually out carried McCaffrey on a per game basis.

842
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 5: And if I like the Chiefs in this spot to win,

843
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:34,839
Speaker 5: but even if I you know, just think that this

844
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 5: is a competitive game, not sure who wins. I think

845
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 5: there's still a pretty decent chance that Pachecko and McCaffrey

846
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 5: end up having roughly the same number of carries. And

847
00:41:43,840 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 5: if that's the case, I think twenty three and a

848
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 5: half is too big of a cushion to be giving

849
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 5: to Pachecko. But I wonder if Sean has opinions on this,

850
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 5: and maybe Sean sees it differently.

851
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 4: No, I was going with a different market completely, So

852
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 4: I'm in agreement with your rushing yard prop, but I

853
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 4: was going the receiving yard round, not to give it too.

854
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 3: Much away, all right, Yeah, I mean, yeah, go for it.

855
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 4: Oh okay, So I'll just go to my Pacheco prop.

856
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 4: So I'm going with under twenty three and a half

857
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:16,479
Speaker 4: receiving yards. It's a bit juicy at minus one seventy five,

858
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 4: but this is a proper You can use my super

859
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 4: Bowl prop calculator that I gave out yesterday where you

860
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 4: can plug in any yardage, any lines and get percent edge,

861
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 4: and this is actually showing a bigger edge than under

862
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 4: sixteen and a half receiving yards for Pacheco. Just getting

863
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:38,160
Speaker 4: those extra seven yards is critical, and you know Pachecko's

864
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 4: receiving usage went up way after Jarret McKinnon was placed

865
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 4: on the r back in week sixteen. You know, his

866
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 4: routes run rate was forty percent with McKinnon active and

867
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 4: sixty percent with McKinnon on IR and McKinnon returned to practice.

868
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 4: It sounds like he's gonna play. So I think that,

869
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 4: if anything, he's going to eat into Pachecko's receiving usage,

870
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 4: even more reason for them just give.

871
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:01,720
Speaker 2: Every single rush attempt possible.

872
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 4: But just factoring that in a bit, you know, that

873
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 4: lowers Pachecko's four ceiling combo in this market. So you know,

874
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,879
Speaker 4: I'm projecting pachecko postort of like minus two fifty on

875
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 4: this specific prop. If if you would rather go the

876
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 4: sixteen and a half under at minus one fifteen, that's fine,

877
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 4: But I'm just showing way more value getting these extra

878
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 4: seven yards and just paying you know, minus one seventy

879
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 4: five juice on it.

880
00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we started well. We did early props

881
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 1: Sean on that episode. I think the first one of

882
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 1: the first ones I talked about was I like Pacheco

883
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 1: to like finish with the most rushing yards, so Freeman,

884
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 1: I mean that kind of goes both of you. It

885
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: kind of feeds into both of you. I think he's

886
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 1: a little undervalued in the rushing market and maybe a

887
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 1: little overvalued in the receiving market. Okay, so on you

888
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 1: still have one more, right?

889
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 2: Yeah?

890
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, just go. Let's go ahead, go and then

891
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 1: we'll go back to Freeman. You got all right?

892
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 4: So, first of all, I love Freeman's prop over like

893
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 4: the longest air yard reception.

894
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 2: I have a one.

895
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 4: It's the same concept where they're going to use neck

896
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 4: Gens stats for this, but it's who's going to be

897
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 4: the fastest offensive ball carrier? And call me crazy, but

898
00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 4: I'm going with christ McCaffrey at plus seven ninety.

899
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: And this is this is a.

900
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 4: Market where I went and I looked at who had

901
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:25,359
Speaker 4: the longest or the fastest like play in every game

902
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 4: for ball teams this year, and it looks like it's

903
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 4: this is a top heavy market where it's going to

904
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 4: be either Debo the Checko, Ayuk Rice or McCaffrey that's it,

905
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 4: or you know, one of the pump returners if they

906
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 4: do get a long pump return.

907
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 2: But that's it really And you know.

908
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 4: When you just look at the fair odds on that

909
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 4: most of these guys are getting six to one odds

910
00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 4: or better, so it's really take your pick. But I

911
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 4: just think that Christian McCaffrey has the best value here.

912
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:53,439
Speaker 4: He has the fastest speed among all players on these

913
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 4: teams at twenty point ninety three miles per hour. He

914
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 4: did that back in Week two on a fifty one

915
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 4: yard carry. If anything, I would say Pacheco should actually

916
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 4: be the slight favorite in this market. He has the

917
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 4: most twenty plus mile an hour runs or catches this year.

918
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 4: But just getting Christian McCaffrey at the tail end of

919
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 4: this market at plus seven ninety feels a bit off.

920
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 4: I think it should be closer to like plus four hundred.

921
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 4: That's how much value I'm showing on this. But I

922
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,440
Speaker 4: love this one. I can't believe I get to take

923
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 4: like a Christian McCaffrey long shot like this, But I

924
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 4: think this is just a miss priced market.

925
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's gonna eat like he should get the

926
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 1: most opportunities in the game to do this too, which

927
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 1: is massive in this market. Okay, Freeman, what else you got?

928
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great one. I love that one. Sean.

929
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 5: I have two party props that are kind of correlated

930
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,359
Speaker 5: It's not that I think Perdy is going to throw

931
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,120
Speaker 5: a ton of attempts in this game, but I do

932
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:52,280
Speaker 5: have him with more passing yards than Mahomes. Let me actually,

933
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 5: let me rephrase that, I have them rejected very similarly,

934
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 5: with Mahomes having a slight edge, but Purdy versus Mahomes

935
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 5: most passing yards. I can get Party at plus one

936
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 5: twenty five, and I think that is enough to make

937
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 5: it compelling to take Party over Mahomes in that situation,

938
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:11,600
Speaker 5: especially if I think the Chiefs are going to win,

939
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 5: which maybe then forces the forty nine ers to pass

940
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 5: the ball a little bit more. And I also have

941
00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 5: Pretty throwing an interception at minus one fifteen odds. I

942
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 5: don't know if you guys have any opinions on those

943
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 5: two props there.

944
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think because I think so, I think

945
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:34,480
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are a little undervalued, So in that situation,

946
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 1: I think game script would be working in your favorite

947
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:39,839
Speaker 1: It's like I think the market, that's probably why you're

948
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 1: showing value too relative to the market, because I think,

949
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 1: you know, when you look at the forty nine Ers,

950
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 1: they've had all these blowouts this year, right, So I

951
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 1: don't even think Party's cleared like thirty pass attempts more

952
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 1: than a handful of times oh year long. So this

953
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: is a game where you're now you're playing what could

954
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,520
Speaker 1: be the most competitive game of the year. So yeah,

955
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: I think there's very good change. And like we talked

956
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 1: about last year in the Super Bowl, you would have

957
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: never thought this, but I think Javin Hurts had what

958
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 1: like three over three hundred and Mahomes had a buck

959
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 1: eighty two and it was a thirty eight thirty five

960
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:13,080
Speaker 1: chief win. So yeah, I think there's a lot of

961
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: ways that this could that that could hit.

962
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:19,279
Speaker 5: And with the interception, sorry, with the pretty interception. If

963
00:47:19,280 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 5: you look in Raymond, I think you mentioned this in

964
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 5: a previous show that you did.

965
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 3: But if you look at.

966
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,239
Speaker 5: The games in which he's really exploded, it's been when

967
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 5: exploded in a bad way. It's been when he's going

968
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 5: against really good defensive coordinators. And that's the situation that

969
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 5: we have here. So you know, pretty normally he stays

970
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,840
Speaker 5: pretty clean, but when he's been challenged by a really

971
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 5: sharp defensive mind, that's when we've seen him get.

972
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:43,760
Speaker 3: A little bit dirty.

973
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 5: And you know, over point five interceptions at minus one fifteen,

974
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 5: I just think there's a little too much value there.

975
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, his worst game, and so seventy five percent of

976
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: his interceptions have come against Cleveland and Jim Schwartz Baltimore

977
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: and Mike McDonald Minnesota and Brian Flores and uh and

978
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: there's a fourth one in there, but Cincinnati was really good. Yeah. Yeah,

979
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:10,720
Speaker 1: so yeah, all like and over half of his turnover

980
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: where he throws on a year too. So it's that's

981
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: kind of been the the thing in Spagnola might be

982
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: better than all those, especially when you're talking about playoffs

983
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: bags who famously shut down helped shut down Brady on

984
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:26,400
Speaker 1: that the undefeated season. Yeah. Well, Sean, you're saying, were

985
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:27,319
Speaker 1: you saying something about you.

986
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 4: Had saying No, I was saying to agree with that.

987
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 4: I feel like Perty's passing herd prop is a little

988
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 4: bit low. I'm not really touching that, but I think

989
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 4: it does make sense to take him, you know, like

990
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 4: against Mahomes, because the attempts will be there. It could

991
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 4: be a potential trailing game script and maybe his efficiency

992
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 4: does take a hit, but he does seem like he

993
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 4: has a really high four in this game.

994
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, uh, I think you got one more.

995
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 3: Right for that one.

996
00:48:51,360 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 5: More one more. This is disgusting. It's a I mean,

997
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 5: it's a kicker prop. But look, I'm talking with Sean here,

998
00:48:56,080 --> 00:49:00,320
Speaker 5: who's like just punting on punters. So I mean literally,

999
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:02,840
Speaker 5: I can't get any any more disgusting than that. But

1000
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 5: I will say, Harrison Bucker over one and a half

1001
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 5: field goals, I've just projected close to two. I've projected

1002
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:11,359
Speaker 5: at two point one. So I think there's a little

1003
00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 5: bit of value there. And we have seen Andy Reid

1004
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 5: recently in the playoffs, like recently, I mean like the

1005
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 5: past three or four years, get a little more conservative

1006
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,919
Speaker 5: with the decision making in the playoffs. So Bucker has

1007
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 5: historically had more full goal opportunities in the playoffs. And

1008
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 5: you know, he's got a sufficient leg, he's a pretty

1009
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:32,439
Speaker 5: accurate kicker, so I think if he gets two full

1010
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 5: goal opportunities in the game, he's got a pretty good

1011
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 5: chance to converting both of them. So over one and

1012
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 5: a half field goals for Harrison Bucker.

1013
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Andy Reid is notoriously conservative, but he's gonna take

1014
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 1: the points if if he gets the opportunities. So yeah,

1015
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:49,479
Speaker 1: I don't hate that, especially because I also think, again

1016
00:49:49,520 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are just a little bit undervalued in the market,

1017
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:55,240
Speaker 1: which just bumps up Bucker's field goal projection.

1018
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:56,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that was a bit more.

1019
00:49:56,960 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 5: I got that at minus one ten, minus one fifteen,

1020
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 5: and I think it's you know, still vetable there.

1021
00:50:03,680 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 1: I already gave a couple of player props out in

1022
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:07,439
Speaker 1: the six pack, but I want, I want to talk

1023
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 1: about that. Uh, I'm kind I was kind of thinking

1024
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: about and then Sean you mentioned that McKinnon's prop look

1025
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 1: like he's leaning toward playing. So I just want people

1026
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: to kind of be thinking about this now. Edwards d

1027
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,280
Speaker 1: Lair under fourteen and a half rushing plus receiving yards.

1028
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:25,480
Speaker 1: Clyde Edwards z Laiir has been essentially in a McKinnon

1029
00:50:25,560 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 1: light role, like not quite getting as many uh you know,

1030
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 1: snaps as McKinnon, but he has been playing on some

1031
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 1: passing down some third downs and getting a carry here

1032
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 1: Carrie there. But if McKinnon plays, Edwards Laire is probably

1033
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,399
Speaker 1: active but just doesn't play. I mean, there's a chance

1034
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: he could be a healthy scratch if pe Ryan like

1035
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,399
Speaker 1: he is needed more on special teams. But more likely

1036
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:48,640
Speaker 1: it's like he'll he'll just be the number three running

1037
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 1: back and he would he probably wouldn't even get an

1038
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 1: offensive snap as McKinnon was back, so uh, like in

1039
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 1: the last game. In the last two games, he's had

1040
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,839
Speaker 1: three touches, so he averages under five yard like four

1041
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 1: four point seven a touch, So three touches, it's still

1042
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:05,480
Speaker 1: like still under this number. He's still like around fourteen.

1043
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 1: So even if he even if he has the normal

1044
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: role that he's had a postseason, uh, he still has

1045
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,680
Speaker 1: a decent chance of going under that. But if McKinnon

1046
00:51:13,800 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 1: is activated, uh, then you're getting massive value. So I

1047
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:18,319
Speaker 1: just wanted to throw that out there.

1048
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 4: Now, you guys, remember a few years ago, we're all

1049
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 4: excited about this guy, first round talent and the Chiefs offense.

1050
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:26,520
Speaker 4: Now we're talking about him being a healthy scratch.

1051
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 1: As he was last.

1052
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 4: I'm just saying I think we were all all three

1053
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:32,959
Speaker 4: of us were very excited this guy.

1054
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, at one point throwing out for eh. I mean

1055
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:39,319
Speaker 1: when once we saw Pacheco though, if Checko was like,

1056
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 1: all right, this guy's a ball or two and then

1057
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 1: who is it this year? Denaric Prince that that that

1058
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 1: never came to fruition, But oh okay, any other any

1059
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:55,240
Speaker 1: other props we got John looks like you got another one.

1060
00:51:55,760 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, this is just a lean for me right now.

1061
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,879
Speaker 4: It's not official play yet, but the longest field goal

1062
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:05,200
Speaker 4: under forty seven and a half yards, you know, based

1063
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 4: on the Well's I'm just I'm.

1064
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 1: Just laughing him stucky. Literally, I think gave out over

1065
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,759
Speaker 1: forty now now very interested. I want to see you

1066
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: as the better veter old on this.

1067
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:20,440
Speaker 4: Is again, this is just a lean. I've given out

1068
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 4: like one hundred props so far. This hasn't made the

1069
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 4: cut yet, but just based on their data this year

1070
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:28,839
Speaker 4: and how many field goals are expected to make, I'm

1071
00:52:28,880 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 4: just going off that it's about a sixty two percent

1072
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:34,320
Speaker 4: chance of staying under. However, I haven't done my process

1073
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 4: of trying to prove myself wrong, where I eliminate a

1074
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 4: lot of bets and sometimes I come out with the bet.

1075
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:41,200
Speaker 2: I haven't gone through that process yet.

1076
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:43,759
Speaker 4: But I was comfortable giving this out because I don't

1077
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 4: think this is going to move. But I will look

1078
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 4: into this. I'll get back to you, but I might

1079
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 4: be on the under. And I was gonna say with Freeman,

1080
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 4: you know, Butcker is like an amazing kicker. But I

1081
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:54,960
Speaker 4: don't I don't think he's going to make one hundred

1082
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 4: percent of his kicks over forty yards going forward, so

1083
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 4: there could be some potential regression. But again this is

1084
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 4: a lean for me as of now.

1085
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 2: It's not official.

1086
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 1: Play it, Freedman anthanots.

1087
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 5: On your end, No, I think I think I'm good here.

1088
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 5: I mean I just gave out a full goal prop.

1089
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:16,839
Speaker 5: I feel like that should be the end of it

1090
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 5: for me.

1091
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:20,440
Speaker 1: All Right, I'll close this out. I got a couple.

1092
00:53:20,680 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 1: One is one I did talk about it earlier. It's

1093
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: still I'm still seeing it at minus one fifteen, and

1094
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 1: that's the Chiefs is the first team to use a challenge.

1095
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 1: Andy Reid the last three years has just more challenges

1096
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:37,640
Speaker 1: point two eight per game to Shanahan's point two. So

1097
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 1: just by that, you know, I think read is a

1098
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:41,520
Speaker 1: little bit more likely. I think it's more like minus

1099
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 1: one forty that read is more likely. Now could very

1100
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 1: well push if no team uses a challenge, But I

1101
00:53:47,440 --> 00:53:50,439
Speaker 1: do think that the Reid and the Chiefs are more

1102
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 1: likely to throw the flag first. And then one other

1103
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 1: one is this is more like if you want to

1104
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 1: add it to like the same game parway, But I

1105
00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 1: think the two point conversion no like for their not

1106
00:54:00,680 --> 00:54:03,840
Speaker 1: to be a successful one is under priced. It's minus

1107
00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 1: three fifty, but I think it should be minus four fifty.

1108
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 3: Uh.

1109
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:09,160
Speaker 1: These teams have combined to go for two only once

1110
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 1: all year, and I'm obviously factoring in a bunch of regressions.

1111
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,320
Speaker 1: So I'm projecting Kansas City, you know, like their normal

1112
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,280
Speaker 1: rate to be about seven percent, San Francisco about six percent.

1113
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 1: But then and even with this game being you know,

1114
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 1: closer than the average game with just a two point

1115
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 1: spread and all that stuff, I'm still getting about about

1116
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 1: an eighty two percent chance, so they're not being a

1117
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 1: two point convergent. So I think it should be minus

1118
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 1: four fifty, just over minus four to fifty. So it's

1119
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:35,719
Speaker 1: one of those I'm sure people aren't gonna want to

1120
00:54:35,760 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 1: bet with all the juice, but if you want to

1121
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 1: add it to like a a partway, I think that

1122
00:54:39,400 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 1: has a pretty good shot of hitting as well.

1123
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:43,839
Speaker 5: You know, I lied I have one more, but it's

1124
00:54:43,880 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 5: more of a question. I'd like to get your guys

1125
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 5: thoughts on this one. So I'm looking at MGM right now,

1126
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 5: and you can get at minus three seventy five touchback

1127
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,560
Speaker 5: on the opening kickoff, and that one feels a little

1128
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 5: bit intriguing to me because both of these coaches are

1129
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 5: pretty conservative. I feel like they would both just satisfied with, like, hey,

1130
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,799
Speaker 5: let's take the touch back at the twenty five and

1131
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 5: start out from there, make sure that we don't get

1132
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:08,399
Speaker 5: any bad field position or anything like that. And if

1133
00:55:08,440 --> 00:55:11,720
Speaker 5: you look at Bucker, I think he has like an

1134
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 5: eighty seven point five percent touchback rate on his kicks,

1135
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 5: like super powerful leg. Not the case for Moody, but

1136
00:55:18,600 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 5: earlier in the year, the forty nine ers were kind

1137
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 5: of experimenting with like trying to pin team, so like, so, yeah,

1138
00:55:24,280 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 5: so Moody's touchback rate isn't really representative of the leg

1139
00:55:27,640 --> 00:55:30,839
Speaker 5: that he has. And then even if he doesn't have

1140
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:34,880
Speaker 5: the leg of Bucker, I think kicking to the Chiefs,

1141
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 5: they have only twelve kick returns this year, like they

1142
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:41,879
Speaker 5: are just like much more incentivized just to like take

1143
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 5: the yards at the twenty five and start from there.

1144
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,719
Speaker 5: So I feel like, kind of regardless of whoever is

1145
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 5: kicking and receiving in this situation, we are likely to

1146
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 5: see a touchback. So yeah, minus three seventy five. I

1147
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,080
Speaker 5: know it's like heavy juice, but I kind of don't

1148
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 5: think it's heavy enough.

1149
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it should probably would be closer to

1150
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:02,440
Speaker 1: my AS five hundred because we talked about this on

1151
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 1: the Early Prop episode too, Sean. But Moody his first

1152
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:12,520
Speaker 1: sixty eight kicks of the year, forty six percent of

1153
00:56:12,560 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 1: them will return, like so you only got to touch

1154
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,719
Speaker 1: by fifty four percent of the time. And then his

1155
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 1: last thirty four kicks just twelve of them twelve percent

1156
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 1: have been returned, so eighty eight percent he's right in

1157
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:26,040
Speaker 1: line with Bucker. And then you factor in the elevation indoors.

1158
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 1: Uh and just like you don't want to fumble the

1159
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 1: first kick return or something like. So there's a good

1160
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 1: chance that both of these coaches fairly conservative. They probably

1161
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:36,839
Speaker 1: tell their guys like, yeah, just fair catch it, let's

1162
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 1: live to see another day. So uh, yeah, I think

1163
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 1: that one makes sense to another. One of those things

1164
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 1: people probably aren't gonna bet flat out even though there

1165
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 1: is value, but definitely something you could throw in a

1166
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,960
Speaker 1: partway to kind of get yourself some more some more

1167
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 1: onds there. So yeah, I like that one.

1168
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 3: Boom, there we go, I'm betting it.

1169
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 1: Boom all right, that is gonna do it for us,

1170
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,880
Speaker 1: Thank you as always for listening to our sixth annual

1171
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 1: Propapalooza episode. Thank you for hanging out with Kernel Friedman

1172
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 1: and I. As a reminder, if you're looking for a

1173
00:57:08,640 --> 00:57:11,359
Speaker 1: main betting preview episode with me and Stuckey, that's live

1174
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:14,720
Speaker 1: right now on this channel, stay tuned, Waiter. This week

1175
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: we'll have a final best Bets episode as well, and

1176
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 1: that's going to do it for our Super Bowl fifty

1177
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 1: eight Propapalooza. It's presented by Bett MGM. You can use

1178
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:28,440
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1179
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1180
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1181
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1182
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1183
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:48,200
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1184
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:51,960
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1185
00:57:51,960 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 1: fantasy content from Sean and I. Our Fantasy flexpod will

1186
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 1: have an episode out as well. You can visit Action

1187
00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 1: Network Dot com all of our NFL betting and fantasy content.

1188
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:05,400
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1189
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,160
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1190
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: be the episode description. You can find Matt on Twitter

1191
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:15,840
Speaker 1: at Matt fe Oracle. You can find Sean at the

1192
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 1: Underscore Odds Maker. You can find me at Chris Raybond.

1193
00:58:18,320 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 1: That's X formerly Twitter, I should say, and we're all

1194
00:58:21,640 --> 00:58:24,000
Speaker 1: at those same handles on the three award winning Action

1195
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:43,160
Speaker 1: Network app, Happy super Bowl fifty eight is get Thish money.

1196
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:47,840
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1197
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:51,120
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1198
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1199
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:54,920
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