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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube right now.

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Speaker 2: The most important essay every morning in the earning season

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Speaker 2: of Julian Emmanuel holding court at Evercore Isi with one

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Speaker 2: Edward Hyman. Ed Hyman and we're threwed he could join

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Speaker 2: us today, their chief equity quantitative strategists. Once again, you

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Speaker 2: have outlined how we got earnings wrong. Do you believe

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Speaker 2: we'll get earnings wrong quarter ending September thirty? We invariably do.

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Speaker 3: So we came into this season believing and again, look

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Speaker 3: this is quite America. There is the baseline predicted earnings growth,

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Speaker 3: and there's the surprise. We almost always surprise positively. I

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Speaker 3: think in our view what happened was the market was

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Speaker 3: actually surprised by what, in retrospect, is not that surprising.

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Speaker 3: A surprise, tom So you're getting ten percent earnings growth.

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Speaker 3: But what's more interesting to us about this season is

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Speaker 3: the degree of the stock price response has been unlike

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Speaker 3: anything we've ever seen, both to the good and the bad,

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Speaker 3: and frankly, it isn't that entirely dependent on the scope

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Speaker 3: of what they report. A lot of this is positioning,

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Speaker 3: but you've had moves just incredibly dramatic in both directions,

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Speaker 3: and that points in our mind to a question about

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Speaker 3: where we're going in terms of earnings next year within

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Speaker 3: the context of the fact that bottoms up consensus is

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Speaker 3: looking for thirteen percent earnings in twenty twenty six. That's

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Speaker 3: a bit too high in our opinion.

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Speaker 4: You don't bury the lead here with your most recent

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Speaker 4: note near term, we think stocks are overvalued seven to

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Speaker 4: fifteen percent pullback into an October low.

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Speaker 5: That's not consensus.

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Speaker 3: Well, so, I guess this goes back to the scars

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Speaker 3: that we've had by being excessively bullish coming into labor

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Speaker 3: day from time to time. That is almost always a

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Speaker 3: strategy that runs into difficulty. But again it goes back

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Speaker 3: to whether you think about it in the context of

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Speaker 3: earnings expectations for twenty twenty six or you think about

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Speaker 3: it in terms of valuation. And to be clear, we're

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Speaker 3: not at all time high valuations like the Y two

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Speaker 3: K dot com bubble, but we're not far away, and

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Speaker 3: in our mind, part of what's gone on this summer

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Speaker 3: is really a belief that because we haven't seen a

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Speaker 3: discrete drag in terms of growth to tariffs and discrete

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Speaker 3: underpinning inflation, which we do believe we're going to get

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Speaker 3: first evidence of this week with the CPI report, people

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Speaker 3: are just you know, don't worry, be happy.

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Speaker 2: Let's go there right now. And bringing edheymen into it,

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Speaker 2: you have this huge advantage of ed heymen and your

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Speaker 2: economic apparatus at evercore is a are you modeling your

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Speaker 2: equity market for a sustained three percent or dare I

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Speaker 2: say a four figure inflation three percent? Three percent?

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Speaker 3: And if you think about it, right, what we have

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Speaker 3: seen off of the trough in April, which I believe

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Speaker 3: I was on with you all. We were pounding the

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Speaker 3: table that you wanted to own it because we had

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Speaker 3: seen capitulation of a degree which we had only ever

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Speaker 3: seen at the trough of the financial crisis in nine.

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Speaker 3: Is that basically the difference between the recovery that we

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Speaker 3: saw then and the recovery that we saw actually during

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Speaker 3: the bear market that was briefly in nineteen ninety eight

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Speaker 3: in the midst of the Internet revolution versus the AI revolution.

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Speaker 3: Now the continued response where Nasdaq rose an additional over

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent into the y two k bubble, It's

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Speaker 3: not going to be like this this time because frankly,

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Speaker 3: the Fed doesn't have the leeway to be as accommodative.

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Speaker 5: Even though we're expecting.

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Speaker 2: Is this the gloomy Emmanuel this morning?

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Speaker 5: It might be. It sounds realistic to me.

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Speaker 4: It just you know, we got scolded last week for

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Speaker 4: calling it a melt up.

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Speaker 5: Do you think we experienced a melt up.

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Speaker 4: Over you know, this percent move off the bottom?

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Speaker 5: Oh?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's no question about the fact that if you

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Speaker 3: measure it in terms of nothing more than public participation,

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Speaker 3: the public has been driving this market in large degree.

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Speaker 3: And you see that in you know, sort of an

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Speaker 3: esoteric area of the world. Zero days the expiration option activity,

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Speaker 3: the positions go on at nine point thirty. They expired

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Speaker 3: four o'clock. That is accounting for upwards of sixty percent

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Speaker 3: of the option activity.

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Speaker 2: So what are you doing now at the margin to

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Speaker 2: purchase equity shares? Are you in evercore ISI on hold?

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Speaker 6: Now?

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Speaker 3: So basically what we're saying is you have to think

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Speaker 3: long term. There's a certain slug investor that should just

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Speaker 3: ignore what we expect to be the volatility in the

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Speaker 3: next couple months. But if you're more active, what you're

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Speaker 3: thinking about is a right sizing your AI exposure to

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Speaker 3: accomplish long term. There's going to be continued our performance.

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Speaker 3: But you want to hedge. You want to hedge with

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Speaker 3: lower valuation stocks with higher earnings revision type names. It's

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Speaker 3: an element of safety that supportfolio and actually, if you

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Speaker 3: think about it, enables.

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Speaker 5: You to be a buyer of Dipps.

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Speaker 2: There you go, there you go, as simple as that, Julian,

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much. Julian McKiel. With this EVERCOREA, I

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Speaker 2: can't we protect the copyright, folks. I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: send out his three paragraph effort that he goes right

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Speaker 2: every morning. His team does it, folks, to be honest,

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Speaker 2: but it's exquisite on where are we in the earning season?

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Speaker 2: It is the industry benchmark. He does that. Julian does

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Speaker 2: that at Evercore is.

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Speaker 1: A You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen

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Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us now deep in the summer, Lauren Seidelbaker, economist.

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Speaker 2: It a we lover work out of Wellesley and Boston University.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to audible right now. One of the greatest

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Speaker 2: views of Mount Washington, likes spiritual nineteenth century is from

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Speaker 2: the Conway North Conway area. Right, Yes, you go up

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Speaker 2: there a lot, can I get there's bar in the woods.

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Speaker 2: It's in the middle of nowhere. Right.

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Speaker 7: We have to get away from fed talk sometime. That's

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Speaker 7: where I go.

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Speaker 2: This is on the New Hampshire border with Maine.

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Speaker 8: Correct, the White Mountains, the.

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Speaker 2: White Mountain, But it's a different White mountains than driving

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Speaker 2: up the.

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Speaker 8: Interstates, you know, Washington Presidential Range. Yeah, it's a lovely

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Speaker 8: place to hike.

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Speaker 2: It's great. When's the snow pull back? June?

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Speaker 8: Oh, there has been snow every month of the year, Washington.

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Speaker 2: Yes, okay, Well, great to have you here. Welcome ninety

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Speaker 2: two nine FM up in Boston as well. We go

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Speaker 2: up to montcatad and mill Knocket. Good morning, Laurence Seidelbaker.

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Speaker 2: AI in its effect on our economy, do we understand

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Speaker 2: our productivity? Do we understand what's going on in technology.

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Speaker 7: I don't think we have a full grasp yet. I

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Speaker 7: think there's a lot more to be done with AI

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Speaker 7: in productivity, we to date haven't really seen the games.

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Speaker 7: We see the need right. We have a very tight

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Speaker 7: labor market. We still have very critical skills gaps. But overall,

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Speaker 7: I think we're still looking for those fits. I see

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Speaker 7: a lot of companies doing the throw money at the

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Speaker 7: problem approach to AI. They're telling their employees just use

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Speaker 7: it somehow. I don't care how, but do something with AI.

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Speaker 7: It's not always the most effective. It's not always the

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Speaker 7: most cost conscious way to use AI.

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Speaker 4: Lauren, I know in your research you work a lot

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Speaker 4: with small, mid sized companies.

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Speaker 5: How are they.

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Speaker 4: Dealing with tariffs, trade uncertainty, maybe a little bit of

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Speaker 4: inflation percolating out there, maybe a little bit of a

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Speaker 4: slowing economy.

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Speaker 5: How are they seeing things?

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Speaker 8: More than anything? They're in a weight and see mode.

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Speaker 7: We see this just with uncertainty with tariffs, with every

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Speaker 7: new policy that no one saw coming even a week ago.

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Speaker 7: Everyone just wants to know what they're up against. But

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Speaker 7: I'm getting the sense lately that that tide is turning.

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Speaker 7: I think we almost have uncertainty fatigue. At some point

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Speaker 7: you just.

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Speaker 2: Need to make for the show start there, Paul, So, Paul,

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Speaker 2: I think this is a really really important point. Golden

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Speaker 2: Sachs publishing this weekend with a three four five month rollout.

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Speaker 2: So do you buy the gradual roll into tariff angst

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Speaker 2: for our listeners and viewers or are you going to

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Speaker 2: be a Lauren Seidelbaker optimistic?

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Speaker 8: I can't be an optimist. I am an economist. After all,

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Speaker 8: those two are mutually exclusive.

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Speaker 7: But at the end of the day, we see businesses

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Speaker 7: really making decisions despite even something like tax implications, right

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Speaker 7: we talk about tax rates. We have found in our

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Speaker 7: analysis that does not materially change business profitability over the

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Speaker 7: long term, business investment over the long term. So it

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Speaker 7: seems like the business world they have a sense of what.

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Speaker 8: They need to do.

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Speaker 7: They've been through the NBA programs, right, they know the

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Speaker 7: theory behind it, and so it's just a matter of

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Speaker 7: doing it. At some point, we've had a multi month

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Speaker 7: uncertainty delay. We're starting to see the rubber meet the road.

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Speaker 4: How do you think the Federal Reserve is going to

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Speaker 4: react to all this uncertainty? What are you guys thinking

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Speaker 4: about that.

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Speaker 7: Really, I see inflation more than anything else being the

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Speaker 7: key to siding factor. Labor market, as I mentioned, still tight,

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Speaker 7: some cracks forming, but I still see general balance in

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Speaker 7: the labor side of things. It's really the inflation side

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Speaker 7: of the dual mandate where we are starting to get nervous.

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Speaker 7: I think tariffs are taking much more time to feed through.

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Speaker 7: So whether you believe tariffs are a one time step

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Speaker 7: up in prices, we see other fundamental pressures. I don't

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Speaker 7: think tariffs are really going to come through. The data

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Speaker 7: for between nine and eighteen months is on average how

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Speaker 7: long it takes.

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Speaker 8: So we're not there yet.

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Speaker 4: The consumer, the consumer seems to be kind of hanging

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Speaker 4: in there. I know there's a bifurcated sense of the consumer.

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Speaker 4: You know, the mid to high end doing quite well,

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Speaker 4: the lower and maybe struggling.

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Speaker 5: How do you thinking about the consumer?

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Speaker 7: All we can do is look at the median consumer.

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Speaker 7: So you're right, there's a lot going on beneath the surface.

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Speaker 7: If you own your home, if you're invested in equity

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Speaker 7: markets versus if you are really feeling this pinch of inflation.

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Speaker 7: Tariffs specifically they hit those lower income earners much more strongly.

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Speaker 8: That's just how the math works out.

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Speaker 7: But on median again, with a tight labor mark, more

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Speaker 7: folks can get jobs. Yes, there might need to be

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Speaker 7: some reskilling. There are some skills gaps that we still see,

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Speaker 7: but overall, more people making more money.

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Speaker 8: Wages are still outpacing inflation.

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Speaker 2: We go to eco go, they go to the lord's

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Speaker 2: sidele Baker. The CPI is a tickop. I mean basically

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Speaker 2: a CPIX food and energy month over month. McKee looks

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Speaker 2: at it. I don't point two to point three year

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Speaker 2: over year two point seven to two point eight regular

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Speaker 2: CPI two point nine to three point zero. I get

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Speaker 2: the nudge up. Do you look at that as a

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Speaker 2: linear function? Dare I say? Out there four percent top

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Speaker 2: line CPI?

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Speaker 8: I think that is well within the range of possibility.

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Speaker 2: What is the outcome of that? Forget double major Wellesley

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Speaker 2: Economics and religion. Yes, that means she went to Patriots,

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Speaker 2: stay red Sox baseball. Okay, you're religion major from Wellesley?

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Speaker 2: What is the political religion of this nation? The day

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Speaker 2: we print four percent?

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Speaker 7: At that point, I think the Fed has their hands tied.

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Speaker 7: I think we might see a couple more rate increases,

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Speaker 7: call it twenty five maybe fifty basis points. I know

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Speaker 7: I've been hearing talk of three cuts this year. I

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Speaker 7: think that's going to be a tough reason.

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Speaker 2: Some people out there are talking, say you're not listening

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Speaker 2: to show enough. Some people are talking seven rate cuts.

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Speaker 8: I've heard seven, and you're going to wait with you.

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Speaker 2: I love your optimism, seriously, folks. So she's here, But

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Speaker 2: if we get Lauren's Sidelbaker optimism, we get four percent

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Speaker 2: CPI what does that mean to our listeners and viewers? Besides,

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Speaker 2: a grocery store is expensive.

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Speaker 7: I think you can't be waiting for rates to go

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Speaker 7: back to the lows that they were just a few

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Speaker 7: years ago. I see rates going up, not down, and

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Speaker 7: again maybe a couple bumps in the road to get there.

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Speaker 8: But I really would be if.

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Speaker 7: You need to be doing borrowing or refinancing, now is

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Speaker 7: the time to do it.

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Speaker 8: I'm not waiting to time.

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Speaker 7: The low for the sake unless you're very, very interest

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Speaker 7: rate sensitive. The sake of twenty five maybe fifty basis points,

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Speaker 7: what are you for going? What's the opportunity cost of

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Speaker 7: that to risk timing that exact LFE.

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Speaker 8: I don't think it's worth it.

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Speaker 4: What's an unemployment rate that you think gets the Fed's

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Speaker 4: attention here, because right.

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Speaker 5: Now you mentioned you know, good question.

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Speaker 4: The labor market's pretty solid, although it's maybe it's tougher

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Speaker 4: to get a job than it was a couple of

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Speaker 4: years ago, but generally most people who want jobs have

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Speaker 4: their jobs.

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Speaker 5: Wages are growing three, four or five percent. What is

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Speaker 5: your view of the labor market.

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Speaker 7: So one metric that I'm looking at even more than

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Speaker 7: the unemployment rate, that's the balance between unemployed workers and

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Speaker 7: job openings. That's one point zero four, so just a

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Speaker 7: hair over one worker per available job opening. Now that balance,

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Speaker 7: I think we are in balance.

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Speaker 8: It's just that both of those numbers are lower. There

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Speaker 8: are relatively fewer job seekers right now.

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Speaker 7: We'll see that trend continue with negative net migration this year.

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Speaker 8: But we also have.

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Speaker 7: Fewer job openings as businesses they're just holding back, they're waiting.

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Speaker 7: So that balance, I think on both sides we can

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Speaker 7: be in balanced, even at lower levels. It's just easier

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Speaker 7: to knock it out of balance.

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Speaker 2: Out on YouTube, a brilliant live chat. Thank you so

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Speaker 2: much for this quote. The rich get richer, the poor

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Speaker 2: get poorer. I mean, that's really what this is about,

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Speaker 2: isn't it. The rich you know, don't care three point

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Speaker 2: eighty four percent, They're like whatever, just you know, by

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Speaker 2: the avocados, I mean, it's a partition of the country. Right.

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Speaker 7: At some point, again, many more of the wage gains

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Speaker 7: in the past couple of years had been concentrated at

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Speaker 7: the lower end of the the real wage.

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Speaker 2: Negative here with what Paul Swooney's talking about, right, you know,

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Speaker 2: higher inflation.

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Speaker 8: That's the risk.

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Speaker 7: We can only look at the media and I wish

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Speaker 7: we had more granular data across the board, but on

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Speaker 7: mediaan are our net consumers still doing better.

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Speaker 2: This has been great. Thank you for coming in from

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Speaker 2: New Hampshire. Yeah really, you know, appreciate it.

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Speaker 8: Thank you for having us.

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Speaker 2: Well, they're up there, you know water When I was

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Speaker 2: a kid, Oh, come on, Cannon Mountain, it's like the

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Speaker 2: ice age. I almost lost a child. This is over

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Speaker 2: in Vermont, folks. I literally had to hold on to

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Speaker 2: the middle child at the top of Jpeak. It's like

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Speaker 2: one hundred miles. It's not west. You gotta understand, Lauren

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Speaker 2: Sweeney doesn't ski the east. Now he's so large, he's

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Speaker 2: only doing Rocky Mountain High exactly.

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Speaker 4: I mean I grew up skiing all through New Hampshire, Vermont,

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Speaker 4: Ocono's you know, shout.

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Speaker 2: Out No, that's where I saw my first I saw

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Speaker 2: you at the Wobbley barat It was a few years ago.

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Speaker 4: Yep, got my first Wall Street Bonus check back in

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Speaker 4: the day. Haven't been back to you since.

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Speaker 2: Lauren Seidelbaker, thank you so much. ITR Economics, New Hampshire.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Last night we had a meeting This is with Surveillance

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Speaker 2: Senior executive producer Eric Mallow, Herder of Interns. Yep, it's

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Speaker 2: his new title, Herder of Interns. And we had a

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Speaker 2: list of people and at the top of the list

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Speaker 2: on Putin Trump in Alaska was Angela's stent. Her book

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Speaker 2: Putin's World is absolutely definitive. We are beyond honored to

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Speaker 2: have a conversation this morning with Angela Stent. Angela, if

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Speaker 2: you were in Alaska for this meeting, what would you

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Speaker 2: listen for from the two?

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Speaker 9: Well, I'm listening to see what it is that Putin

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Speaker 9: is proposing to President Trump. And so far it seems that,

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Speaker 9: you know, Ukraine is supposed to seed territory to Russia

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Speaker 9: that Russia doesn't even control and really not get very

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Speaker 9: much in return, maybe a freezing of the Catalines. And

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Speaker 9: with Trump, I'm listening to see does he really understand

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Speaker 9: that Putin isn't willing to stop this war that he's

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Speaker 9: being played. So those are the things that I would

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Speaker 9: be listening to.

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Speaker 2: And I look, Angela at this, and of course in

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Speaker 2: the Zeitgeist this morning is the build article in Germany

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Speaker 2: that they got the translation run. Do we have the

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Speaker 2: process and apparatus to prepare for Friday's meeting? I mean,

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Speaker 2: do we have administration in place that can do this?

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Speaker 9: So so far it doesn't appear that we do. I mean,

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Speaker 9: normally these kinds of summits are well prepared in advance,

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Speaker 9: their experienced diplomats or involved in them. This is the

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Speaker 9: result of, you know, a long conversation between Steve and Witkoff,

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Speaker 9: not a diplomat, not an expert on Russia and Vladimo Putin.

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Speaker 9: We don't know the contents of it, and so we

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Speaker 9: are really left in the dark about what the process

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Speaker 9: is in this. And the concern is that President Trump

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Speaker 9: will be there and then he doesn't have all the

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Speaker 9: backing he needs and the understanding going into this about

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Speaker 9: what prudent's actually trying to do.

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Speaker 5: What is the role, if any, for President Zelenski.

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Speaker 9: Well, so far, President Zelenski, of course, has been excluded

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Speaker 9: from this. The US and Russia are talking about his

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Speaker 9: own country. President Trump has spoken to him, He's in

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Speaker 9: He's Zelenski's in very close contact with the Europeans. The

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Speaker 9: Europeans are trying to impress on President Trump that he

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Speaker 9: has to go into this clear eye and realistic about.

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Speaker 10: What Putin is trying to do.

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Speaker 9: But to think about two countries trading away another country's

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Speaker 9: territory without that country being present, I think that theres

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Speaker 9: a lot of thinking about.

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Speaker 4: Does President Putin have any intention to sign a ceasefire

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Speaker 4: on Friday or even discussing it?

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Speaker 10: I very much doubt it.

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Speaker 9: I think what he's trying to do is to probe

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Speaker 9: and see how much he can get from President Trump.

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Speaker 10: So I would not hold your breath on.

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Speaker 2: That, Angela. Get the drama. Max Putin writes it up

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Speaker 2: in the Washington Post and others, And we don't need

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Speaker 2: to do a history lesson in nineteen thirty eight Munich,

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Speaker 2: where Neville Chamberlain gave away a piece of Czechoslovakia and

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Speaker 2: look what happened. But do you see that moment here?

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Speaker 2: I mean, these two world leaders, do we, Angela? Do

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Speaker 2: we know where they're going to meet in Alaska? Yet?

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Speaker 9: I don't know what they're going to meet in Alaska?

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Speaker 9: And it's interesting. So for Putin, all he has to

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Speaker 9: do is fly over Russia. If he were to meet

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Speaker 9: Trump in many other places, he probably couldn't because there

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Speaker 9: are a lot of countries he can't fly over.

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Speaker 10: Because it's interesting. Interesting, So we.

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Speaker 2: Don't know, Okay, So maybe they're going to meet on

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Speaker 2: those two islands. They can wave at each other across

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Speaker 2: the bearing straight Angela's stent discuss what's in the zeitgeist

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Speaker 2: this morning of illusions to two years before World War Two?

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Speaker 10: Well, I think you know two years before World War two?

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Speaker 9: If you think about Neville Chamberlain, I mean he was

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Speaker 9: trying to postpone a war because you know, he and

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Speaker 9: he believed that if he just gave Hitler what he wanted,

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Speaker 9: which was, you know, talking about what was happening to

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Speaker 9: the Zudatelane, then there wouldn't be a war.

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Speaker 10: I think we may still be at that point.

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Speaker 9: I think there's enough a full comprehension among the in

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Speaker 9: the Trump administration that you know that from Putin. The

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Speaker 9: subordination of Ukraine is the goal now, but it's the

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Speaker 9: first step towards really retaking influence and land in what

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Speaker 9: used to be the former Soviet Union. Putin has expansionist aims,

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Speaker 9: and I think maybe in nineteen thirty eight mister Chamberlain

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Speaker 9: didn't understand exactly what Hitler's expansionist aims were. So I

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Speaker 9: think people need to understand what this is about. And

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Speaker 9: I'm sure that that's not fully appreciated in the White House.

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Speaker 10: Yet.

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Speaker 4: It seems, Angela that most world leaders around the world

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Speaker 4: have bent their need to President Trump, whether it's on

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Speaker 4: tariffs or other issues. That's not the case with mister Putin.

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Speaker 4: Does he how do you think he've vieused President Trump

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Speaker 4: and the administration.

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Speaker 10: Well, I think he.

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Speaker 9: Believes that mister Trump really wants to have a better

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Speaker 9: relationship with Russia. Trump started out by saying we need

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Speaker 9: to reset and improve relations. I think the Russians understand

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Speaker 9: that there's inconsistency in the position of the Trump administration.

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Speaker 9: They're going to push as far as they can. This

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Speaker 9: is the old if you like Soviet style of negotiation.

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Speaker 9: What's mine is mine and what is what's us as negotiable.

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Speaker 9: So I think they still believe that they can get

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Speaker 9: President Trump to agree to terms that would be really

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Speaker 9: very unfavorable for Ukraine and would give Russia most of

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Speaker 9: what it wants.

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Speaker 2: Angel Ston, the cover of your book, Putin's World, folks,

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Speaker 2: it was my book, I think I can't remember, Paul

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Speaker 2: if it was Book of the Year, Book of the

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Speaker 2: sor whatever. Read the book Putin's World, Angela Stent with

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Speaker 2: a new chapter out now. Bill Burns, who has a

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Speaker 2: little bit of experience at CIA, says Putin's World is

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Speaker 2: a definitive guide to understanding the tangled history of post

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Speaker 2: Cold War Russia and its place in the world. You

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Speaker 2: got a great photo on the cover, Angela. I'm sure

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Speaker 2: you picked it out of the forty seven foot table

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Speaker 2: with mister Putin sitting at one end, and I think

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Speaker 2: mister mccaran said at the other end. That's not going

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Speaker 2: to be Alaska. Is it going to be all smilies

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Speaker 2: and you know, arm patting and all that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: is it going to be touchy feely?

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Speaker 10: It may well be.

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Speaker 9: I mean, you've seen the pictures of mister Whitcoff and

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Speaker 9: put mister Whitcoff putting his hand on his heart, smiling,

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Speaker 9: shaking his hand. I don't know what President Trump will do,

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Speaker 9: but it's not going to be this long table. So

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Speaker 9: there will be smiles, at least for the public.

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Speaker 2: Azo you're not old enough to remember this. I remember

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Speaker 2: when khrushchef took a shoe off and pounded in the UN.

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Speaker 2: Have we treated Khrushchev or Bresnem or Stylin or dare

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Speaker 2: I say Lenin? Have we treated them like the administration's

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Speaker 2: treating mister Putin. It's absolutely original, isn't it.

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Speaker 9: Oh, it's completely original. No, we were very suspicious of them.

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Speaker 9: They were communists. We knew that they were at least

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Speaker 9: officially committed to taking over the world.

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Speaker 10: We were very wary with them.

438
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 9: Having said that, you know, Nixon and Brezhnev you know,

439
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 9: did shake each other's hand. We're all smiles. Bren have

440
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 9: visited the US, drove around in big cost so there

441
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 9: was some of that. But this is a very different

442
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 9: feel to what it was like impossible during the Cold War.

443
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: This is just it's like the new season is slow horses.

444
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: I mean, mister Trump and mister Whitcoff and al should

445
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: just watch slow horses. I mean, that's what the that's

446
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 2: how they go prepared for.

447
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 4: So, Angela, is there a scenario here where I don't know,

448
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 4: some kind of deal gets signed between Russia and President Trump,

449
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 4: and if I'm a Ukraine I'm just sitting on the

450
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 4: outside saying what do I do here?

451
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,359
Speaker 10: I mean that is that eveninitely a scenario?

452
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 9: I mean the Russian goal is to sign and agree

453
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 9: with President Trump it's favorable toward Russia and then blame

454
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 9: the Ukrainians if it doesn't work out, because the Ukrainians

455
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,720
Speaker 9: are not going to sign onto a deal that status

456
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 9: advantageous for them, and the Europeans are going to back

457
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 9: them in this. So that's definitely a scenario that some

458
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 9: deal is signed between the US and Russia, but in

459
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 9: fact the Ukrainians won't accept it.

460
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: And just said one final serious question. Then this goes

461
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: back to mister Gates and Condaliza Rice. I believe in Belgrade.

462
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 2: I mean, I get it. There's territory in eastern Ukraine

463
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 2: and they've got four acres of Russia. It comes back

464
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 2: to the emotion of Crimea. Will that even be discussed

465
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: at this meeting about the sheer reality of Crimea on

466
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 2: the Black Sea?

467
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 9: I don't know whether it'll be discussed, but it really

468
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 9: doesn't seem to be an issue. I mean, I think

469
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 9: the Trump administration is assuming that the Ukrainians can't do

470
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 9: anything about the annexation of Crimea, and that they will

471
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 9: at least day facto.

472
00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 2: I have to recognize, what do you need from Secretary Rubio?

473
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 9: Well, I think Secretary Rubio needs to, you know, to

474
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 9: make sure that concessions are not made to Putin that

475
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 9: are not warranted. He seems to he I think, understands

476
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 9: the situation pretty well. He was previously at least a

477
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 9: hawk on Russia, so he needs to somehow be a

478
00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 9: restraining factor in.

479
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: This wonderful This was great. Paul Angelas Stin, thank you

480
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 2: so much. On Putin's World, we begin our coverage of

481
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 2: this historic summit meeting. It is scheduled for Friday. David

482
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 2: Girl will join us later in the show this morning

483
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 2: to provide further briefing. It is a story on a

484
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: move to say the least.

485
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

486
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,719
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

487
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

488
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

489
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Meacham joins now from City Group with an acclaimed career.

490
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 2: Counting the free cash flow of healthcare. How much in

491
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 2: a value trap is a healthcare sector right now? Jeffrey,

492
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 2: it's pretty bad.

493
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 11: I would say, I think the main catalyst is getting

494
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 11: over this policy of worry. But for sure, though these

495
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 11: companies and large cap pharma, you know, devices, services, et cetera,

496
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 11: are generating a ton of cash. You're totally right, But

497
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 11: we just have to get through the you know, the

498
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 11: policy over hanks that you know that been prevalent pretty

499
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 11: much all year.

500
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 2: Full disclosure, folks. They have a huge bias to Eli Lilly.

501
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 2: Some of the FAMI is from Indiana and we're original

502
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 2: shareholders back you know when the covered wagons were there.

503
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 2: ELI Lilly last ten years twenty six zero point ninety

504
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 2: seven five percent per year. What, Yes, Eli Lilly is

505
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 2: a mag seven performance Jeffrey Meacham. It's tanked the last

506
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 2: twelve months down whatever huge amount down? Is this the

507
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 2: by opportunity of a lifetime in the giant of Indianapolis.

508
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: I really do think so.

509
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 11: I mean, honestly, if you look at the past week,

510
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 11: let's just let's just go back there. The second quarter was,

511
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 11: you know, was fantastic. We didn't see as much or

512
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 11: we really saw no resilience, but not as many issues

513
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 11: as Novo had for sure. In fact, you know they're

514
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 11: gaining share, you know, growth rate raising, guidance, growth rate higher.

515
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 11: I think the one you know, kind of negative surprise

516
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 11: was the orphiklepron data the oral GLP one and you

517
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 11: know that's what happens when you have a higher multiple stock,

518
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 11: you know, and people expect, you know, twelve fifteen percent

519
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 11: weight loss and it's literally only eleven. So that's a

520
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 11: massive overcorrection, right that I think is completely ridiculous. We're

521
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 11: going to look back in about a year from now

522
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 11: when this drug launches and you know it's several billion

523
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 11: in the first month.

524
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 2: That laugh at this, I suspect, Paul, do you see

525
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: that for Bloomberg Radio? You're missing this moment On YouTube

526
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 2: you can observe it. Mister Meacham has the gold trim

527
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 2: behind him. Sure in his YouTube video shot. Just like

528
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 2: the isn't it? Just like it's like, you know, the whole,

529
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 2: the whole houses.

530
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 5: Styles and new styles.

531
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 4: Jeffrey, can you summarize what the regulatory or policy overhang

532
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 4: is for healthcare right at the moment and how you

533
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 4: think it might play out?

534
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 11: Yeah, I think the first thing is m f N, Right,

535
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 11: So m f N is a situation where you know,

536
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 11: most favored nation where there has to be delineation of pricing,

537
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,959
Speaker 11: how US compares the o U S pricing And it's complicated,

538
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 11: and I think at the end of the day, Trump

539
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 11: just wants to have a win where the US pharma

540
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 11: companies get higher prices from you know, from Europe. So

541
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 11: how that's going to take form, I think it's it's

542
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 11: really not clear at this point. The second thing is

543
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 11: pharma tariffs, and that's a lot more simple, and that

544
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 11: just is justifying you know, companies bringing on board new

545
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 11: manufacturing sites, et cetera. And that I think is you know,

546
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 11: more likely to be resolved I think by the end

547
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 11: of the year. And you know, and as Trump has

548
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 11: said in the past, it's been a bit of a

549
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 11: weight in right. You have like essentially, you know, twelve eighteen,

550
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 11: twenty four months to bring those manufacturing plants you know,

551
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 11: and facilities here to the US. And then the last

552
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 11: one it's a little bit more nebulous. I'm not sure

553
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 11: about PBM reform. That's that affects the industry indirectly. And

554
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 11: the other piece is just looking at things like you know,

555
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 11: vaccines and how that you know that policy is going

556
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 11: to play out. So it's mostly BARMA tariffs and MFN

557
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 11: has been the biggest overhang.

558
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 4: Does any of that result in lower drug prices for

559
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 4: US consumers?

560
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 2: I suspect it will.

561
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 11: But the one so, the one angle in MFN is

562
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 11: is a consumer base, you know, and this is what

563
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 11: Trump has mentioned. It's actually pretty insightful if you look

564
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 11: at the you know, the US in drug industry, it's

565
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 11: mostly been just like Europe, it's been paid for by

566
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 11: medicare or you know, private insurance or corporate insurance. A

567
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 11: drug like Warford glipbarm for obesity is perfect for this,

568
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 11: right if you think about, you know, how much out

569
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 11: of pocket is it worth to you? You know, And

570
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 11: so that's something where Trump is trying to evolve the

571
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 11: consumer angle into this, and I think I think that's

572
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 11: a smart strategy. And every company we've talked to in

573
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 11: major pharma this quarter has talked about Yeah that we're

574
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 11: trying to figure out how that would play out, but

575
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 11: I think that would if you if you carve out

576
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 11: the PBM industry, you know, they you know, up charge

577
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 11: I don't know, eight ten, fifteen percent in some cases

578
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 11: maybe more. That could save the US you know, consumer

579
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 11: a ton.

580
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: Jeffrey, do you have a single best buyke? We talked Lily,

581
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 2: but is there a Jeffrey Meacham single best buy right now?

582
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 2: I would say Lily.

583
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 11: Lily in Vertex of the two that we've liked, and

584
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 11: both have been really shelled and asked stuff that was

585
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 11: a month or so. But Vertex is one where you know, look,

586
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 11: they have assistant Vibrosa's business which is you know, which

587
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 11: is legendary. I mean it's fifteen billion peak potential, you know,

588
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 11: very high margin, but they need an Encore and they've

589
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 11: struggled with that, and they have a pain franchise, they

590
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 11: have a sickle cell cell therapy.

591
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: All that.

592
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 11: It's all tracking, but no one's worried about the underlying

593
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 11: based business right and yet the multiple again has come

594
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 11: in a ton. But those two are the best growers

595
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 11: I think in large cat therapeutics.

596
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: This has been a pleasure. Jeffrey Mentium, thank you so

597
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 2: much for City Group.

598
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

599
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

600
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

601
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

602
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

603
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 2: The newspapers is actually worked all weekend on this. I mean,

604
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 2: it's just amazing. I mean she goes twenty four to

605
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: seven to prepare for this. The newspapers would Lisa, and

606
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: the Monday edition.

607
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 10: The Monday edition.

608
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 6: Okay, so I'm not sure if either you ever received

609
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 6: a ticket in the mail for speeding or those red

610
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 6: light cameras I hacking.

611
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 4: My vespa inappropriately at the beach, got it in the mail?

612
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 5: What I the spot that was not a dedicated parking spot.

613
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 5: Boom spring lay hit me up for fifty five big ones.

614
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 6: Oh my god, yeah, are you going to go to court?

615
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: No, but a woman says she doesn't pay her tickets.

616
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 4: She says there's no sign. It says I can't pay.

617
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 4: I can't park here, so I'm not going to pay.

618
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 6: Well, that's the thing. So people are getting mail tickets right.

619
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 6: I don't know if you get one for the Vesta

620
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 6: for the noise, because it's not a noisy. It's not

621
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 6: like a Harley or anything like that. But there are

622
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 6: some noise cameras that are giving people and sending them

623
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 6: in the mail, you know, just like the red light,

624
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 6: just like the speeding tickets that I've.

625
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 8: Gotten to from that. So they're starting to go up.

626
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 6: Tickets can range anywhere from fifty dollars all the way

627
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 6: to eight hundred dollars. People are getting tickets for these noises.

628
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 6: And we're talking about loud. Is it coming from it right?

629
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 6: The revving engines, the mufflers that people make on purpose

630
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 6: to beat.

631
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 8: Up the sound.

632
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 6: It comes from the municipality. So there are noise cameras

633
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 6: that are out there and they're tracking as cars go

634
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 6: by to see how loud their car is, and if

635
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 6: it's over a certain decipel you.

636
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 5: Will get a ticket in the mail.

637
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 8: And people are getting these.

638
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 6: I mean especially Newport Rhode Island is a big spot

639
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 6: because people are saying, who live there. The tourists come

640
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 6: in and they're making all this racket and we don't

641
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 6: want it anymore. But New York City is actually the

642
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 6: number one noise camera at the center. I wasn't aware

643
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 6: of this, but they're fine. Started at eight hundred dollars,

644
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 6: they've already issued more than twenty five hundred tickets since

645
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 6: twenty twenty one, so they're really really sending this out.

646
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 6: But like you said, people aren't paid.

647
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 4: I like the signs in New York City to say

648
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 4: don't honk your horn, and you hear it all the time.

649
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 6: But that's another reason for the noise thing, is the

650
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 6: honking the horn. So this is becoming more of an issue. Okay,

651
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,520
Speaker 6: So this one is in Lucashaw's screen Time newsletter. So

652
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 6: we've been talking about, Yeah, how a lot of more

653
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 6: sports are are entering the streaming market, right, So so

654
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 6: he took a look into why Amazon, Apple, Netflix, YouTube

655
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,280
Speaker 6: are kind of capitalizing on it. He said, the problem

656
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 6: is that leagues are looking for these bigger paydays right

657
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 6: because they're the only kind of entertainment program that can

658
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 6: pull in these live audiences. But their partners, which are

659
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 6: broadcast in cable networks, traditional partners, they've shrunk, traditional media

660
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 6: companies like Disney, Paramount, Global, Warner Brothers, they can they

661
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 6: have a limit on how much they can spend. So

662
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 6: in order to get these big payouts that they want,

663
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 6: they're going to have to divide the rights among like

664
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,280
Speaker 6: a different and a wider.

665
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 2: I've read this too. Thank you Lisa for bringing this up, Paul.

666
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 2: If I'm watching the NFL, which folks, I don't do.

667
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 2: I don't do much NFL, but if I was at

668
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 2: a given game, I really don't. I got like, what

669
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: five places I have to look?

670
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, including Yeah, absolutely. But the big, big.

671
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,880
Speaker 4: Sea change will be when one of these Sunday afternoon

672
00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 4: packages and ones that either go to Fox or CBS.

673
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 4: If one of those packages, which are national packages, go

674
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 4: to a streaming service, that's gonna be the sea change.

675
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 4: And it will happen absolutely absolutely because that's just where

676
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 4: the eyeballs are. So you know, so the nobody's better

677
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:13,879
Speaker 4: than monetizing broadcast rights in the NFL. They create as

678
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 4: much demand as they cannot, cross as many bitters as

679
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 4: they can.

680
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: Both prices go on quickly. Is this because of Pete Rosel?

681
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 2: Do we underestimate what Pete Rosel invented?

682
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 5: Yeah? Yeah, he certainly was.

683
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 4: But Roger Goodell, who gets paid a gajillion dollars here,

684
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 4: has just minted money for his employers, which are the

685
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 4: owners thirty second squeeze one more in lea.

686
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 5: You got it. Okay.

687
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 6: People use chat sjubyt for a lot of things, but

688
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 6: there's one thing that Sam Altman says he is not

689
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 6: very happy about. It's how people are using it as

690
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 6: a therapist or a life coach. He said that, you know,

691
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 6: they're they're tracking people's sense of attachment to AI because

692
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 6: the problem is people who are maybe lonely or whatever,

693
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 6: they go on chat shoobyt and they start interacting and

694
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 6: then the query start, query start, and so it becomes

695
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:59,439
Speaker 6: like this therapist. And he says, that's not the right

696
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 6: way to to use it. So that's a little bit.

697
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 5: Scary to me.

698
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,319
Speaker 2: It's a time bag. I mean, like the you know,

699
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 2: the chet dept. Stuff that's different than doing.

700
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 6: Searches correct correct, because it keeps asking you what prompts

701
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 6: you maybe would you like to know more about this?

702
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 5: Would you like?

703
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 6: And it kind of keeps prompting you to ask, did you.

704
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 2: Spend all day Sunday working on newspapers for today?

705
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 5: Half the day, half the day?

706
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 2: Lisa, let say thank you so much the newspapers on

707
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,239
Speaker 2: a Monday. We promised Tuesday will be an improvement.

708
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:33,440
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709
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,359
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710
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:41,240
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711
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712
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,560
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713
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